Author Topic: Sea Launch Future  (Read 152115 times)

Offline kq6ea

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 102
  • Former Sea Launcher
  • Fort Collins, Colorado
  • Liked: 29
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #20 on: 10/06/2014 05:19 pm »
It will be a sad day indeed if they fold their tent and close out the business.

Out of all of the places I've worked in my career, I have to say that without a doubt, Sea Launch had absolutely the BEST people I've ever worked with.

Guess we just have to wait and see what happens.

Offline docmordrid

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6334
  • Michigan
  • Liked: 4207
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #21 on: 10/07/2014 03:42 am »
Rumors of a sale over at Satnews:

http://www.satnews.com/story.php?number=1803212071

Quote
"The reports that an Israeli company is planning to buy the Sea Launch project are not true. We have received no proposals on the Sea Launch purchase," the company’s CEO Sergey Gugkayev told ITAR-TASS.

Meaning they're still in the hands of DHL? Where there's smoke & layoff notices....
DM

Offline kq6ea

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 102
  • Former Sea Launcher
  • Fort Collins, Colorado
  • Liked: 29
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #22 on: 10/07/2014 04:07 am »
It's been extremely hard to tell what's going on there since they emerged from the Chapter 11 proceedings.

During the time I worked there post-bankruptcy, information "downflow" to us grunts was sparse, and sometimes flat out wrong.

I see no reason for it to be any different now that the major layoffs have taken place. If anything, it will be even more secretive.

Online owais.usmani

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 729
  • Liked: 368
  • Likes Given: 581
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #23 on: 01/14/2015 12:32 pm »
Russia’s new Angara rocket may replace Ukraine’s Zenit in Sea Launch project — source

http://itar-tass.com/en/non-political/771080

Is that even possible? Wouldn't it require rebuilding both odyssey and commander from scratch?


Online woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12094
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 18196
  • Likes Given: 12158
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #24 on: 01/14/2015 02:00 pm »
Russia’s new Angara rocket may replace Ukraine’s Zenit in Sea Launch project — source

http://itar-tass.com/en/non-political/771080

Is that even possible? Wouldn't it require rebuilding both odyssey and commander from scratch?



Russia is famous for floating all kinds of ideas, only to see them end up nowhere.

Offline kq6ea

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 102
  • Former Sea Launcher
  • Fort Collins, Colorado
  • Liked: 29
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #25 on: 01/15/2015 01:13 am »
Considering both ships were designed around using the Zenit, it would take a complete rebuild of them to use something else.

Offline baldusi

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8356
  • Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Liked: 2539
  • Likes Given: 8273
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #26 on: 01/15/2015 02:24 pm »
Considering both ships were designed around using the Zenit, it would take a complete rebuild of them to use something else.
Not only Zenit, but TDRS for range.

Offline JasonAW3

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2443
  • Claremore, Ok.
  • Liked: 410
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #27 on: 01/15/2015 03:14 pm »
Considering both ships were designed around using the Zenit, it would take a complete rebuild of them to use something else.

I'm not so sure a COMPLETE rebuild would be required.  Obviously the handling facilities would have to be converted as well as the launch "platform", but most mass and balance issues could be handled by reballisting the platform.

If the engineers of the SeaLaunch platform are anything like most American engineers, then there's likely to be plenty of overdesigning built into the system.  (Besides, I thought it was designed to be upgraded later anyway).
My God!  It's full of universes!

Offline kq6ea

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 102
  • Former Sea Launcher
  • Fort Collins, Colorado
  • Liked: 29
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #28 on: 01/19/2015 04:54 am »
The LP was "designed" for a lifetime of 75 launches. I'm sure it could do more because, as you say, it's somewhat over designed.

I never heard what the plans were, if any, for after the 75 launches had been done.

And yes, ballasting could possibly compensate for a larger/heavier launch vehicle. The "Trim and Heel" of the LP were constantly adjusted during roll-out, fueling, and launch, but I don't know how much adjustment range the system has in it.

Boeing was building the entire Payload Accommodation, which is everything above the Block DM. A change in launch vehicles would probably require either a new PLA, or significant redesigning of the existing structure.

Offline Lars-J

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6809
  • California
  • Liked: 8485
  • Likes Given: 5384
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #29 on: 01/19/2015 04:30 pm »
Russia’s new Angara rocket may replace Ukraine’s Zenit in Sea Launch project — source

http://itar-tass.com/en/non-political/771080

Is that even possible? Wouldn't it require rebuilding both odyssey and commander from scratch?



Russia is famous for floating all kinds of ideas, only to see them end up nowhere.

One significant problem is that the single-core Angara cannot handle anything close to Zenit payloads. So the ship and launch platform would have to be rebuilt to support Angara-3 and/or Angara-5. Adding additional complexity.

Offline Zed_Noir

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5490
  • Canada
  • Liked: 1809
  • Likes Given: 1302
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #30 on: 01/19/2015 05:10 pm »
Sea Launch might be better off converting a new launch platform and scrapped the current one. Which was originally build by a Japanese shipyard in 1982! There is plenty of surplus oil platforms available. Of course with either the current or new platform, does the Russians have the cash to preparations and operations of the service?

Also where is the service hardware is going to be home port? Operating from a non-US port will have ITAR issues. Especially in the current geopolitical climate.

Offline baldusi

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8356
  • Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Liked: 2539
  • Likes Given: 8273
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #31 on: 01/19/2015 06:44 pm »
Sea Launch might be better off converting a new launch platform and scrapped the current one. Which was originally build by a Japanese shipyard in 1982! There is plenty of surplus oil platforms available. Of course with either the current or new platform, does the Russians have the cash to preparations and operations of the service?

Also where is the service hardware is going to be home port? Operating from a non-US port will have ITAR issues. Especially in the current geopolitical climate.
Sea Launch uses the Boeing made PLA exactly because of ITAR. And they also use TDRS + GPS for range. While they could replace it with a new Lutch/GLONASS system, no only is that a whole new development, but if I'm not mistaken the Lutch network coverage has a hole exactly on the Pacific. When you look at it, starting from scratch might not be quite a bad idea. There must be a ton of lessons learned if you keep the knowledge, though.
I still believe that the Russians would be better doing an RLV plan like SpaceX. Since their drop zones are in land and everything is usually designed for rail/road transport, the recovery of first should be "cheap".

Online Stan Black

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3135
  • Liked: 377
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #32 on: 01/19/2015 07:47 pm »
The LP was "designed" for a lifetime of 75 launches. I'm sure it could do more because, as you say, it's somewhat over designed.

If you look at Proton and Soyuz the idea was to operate the launch sites for a set number of launches; then withdraw it from operation for a major overhaul. Nowadays they just keep them in operation. Zenit facilities are managed by a different organisation, so not sure what they do.
http://88.210.62.157/content/numbers/206/38.shtml

Offline edkyle99

  • Expert
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15391
    • Space Launch Report
  • Liked: 8565
  • Likes Given: 1356
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #33 on: 01/19/2015 08:46 pm »
Russia’s new Angara rocket may replace Ukraine’s Zenit in Sea Launch project — source

http://itar-tass.com/en/non-political/771080

Is that even possible? Wouldn't it require rebuilding both odyssey and commander from scratch?
I suspect that this story is really about Russia's plans to build an Angara launch complex at Vostochny.  An Angara 5/Briz M launched from there would out-lift Sea Launch Zenit (and Proton) to GTO, without all of the sailing.

Sea Launch is shut down.  There only seem to be a couple of Land Launch Zenit flights possible, if any.  We all know about the continuing situation in Ukraine.  The future seems apparent.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 01/19/2015 08:48 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline kq6ea

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 102
  • Former Sea Launcher
  • Fort Collins, Colorado
  • Liked: 29
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #34 on: 01/20/2015 09:58 pm »
+1 to Ed.

The whole situation kind of reminds me of Bruce Willis in "The Sixth Sense".......

Offline Space Ghost 1962

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2780
  • Whatcha gonna do when the Ghost zaps you?
  • Liked: 2925
  • Likes Given: 2247
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #35 on: 01/20/2015 10:22 pm »
If it ever were to be used again, that would be for the benefit of those who were involved for the prior launch.

But since that launch, a lot has happened that change the economics that they would be competing with. It might not be worth the trouble to resurrect, but to scrap.

And given the performance of SeaLaunch end-to-end, I doubt this will be tried again. This era has ended.

Online woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12094
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 18196
  • Likes Given: 12158
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #36 on: 01/21/2015 07:29 am »
If it ever were to be used again, that would be for the benefit of those who were involved for the prior launch.

But since that launch, a lot has happened that change the economics that they would be competing with. It might not be worth the trouble to resurrect, but to scrap.

And given the performance of SeaLaunch end-to-end, I doubt this will be tried again. This era has ended.
Are you familiar with this phrase?

"It ain't over until the fat lady sings"

The era ends when SeaLaunch announces they will fold permanently.

Offline baldusi

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8356
  • Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Liked: 2539
  • Likes Given: 8273
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #37 on: 01/21/2015 01:27 pm »
If it ever were to be used again, that would be for the benefit of those who were involved for the prior launch.

But since that launch, a lot has happened that change the economics that they would be competing with. It might not be worth the trouble to resurrect, but to scrap.

And given the performance of SeaLaunch end-to-end, I doubt this will be tried again. This era has ended.
Are you familiar with this phrase?

"It ain't over until the fat lady sings"

The era ends when SeaLaunch announces they will fold permanently.
I believe the phrase is "It ain't over until the fat lady stops singing". This is taken from the opera and is usually applied to sports.  The opera ends when there's no more singing, not a second before. It means that while there's time in the clock you can still win (or even) any match. I think it is quite applicable here, too.
« Last Edit: 01/22/2015 12:36 am by baldusi »

Offline Space Ghost 1962

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2780
  • Whatcha gonna do when the Ghost zaps you?
  • Liked: 2925
  • Likes Given: 2247
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #38 on: 01/21/2015 06:26 pm »
In my experience of dealing with cross national corporations, even just two  fairly close cultures separated by a few timezones means 5x longer. We've got three ones with substantial history/differences here.

Even worse, one of them makes decisions on practically geologic timescales, and can manufacture false economic/accounting justifications to boot.

That fat lady might just stay singing, give birth while still singing, teach offspring to transition to singing, and go this way intergenerationally singing to span the time interval for things to eventually come to a conclusion  :o

"Its dead Jim!"

Don't look backward. So ... what's next. Rather focus on that than repeating a lame, fragile thing (due to relying on obstinate/adversarial govts who like to stick a finger in each others eye like so many spoiled schoolboys) ...

Yah, you Boeing execs that green lighted it a decade back - "never saw THAT coming" ... grrr.

Offline kq6ea

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 102
  • Former Sea Launcher
  • Fort Collins, Colorado
  • Liked: 29
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #39 on: 01/22/2015 08:57 pm »
Well, back in the early/middle 90's when the program was started, it sure seemed like a good idea!

A warehouse full of engines, an abandoned oil platform, and some thinking outside the box got things rolling.

Business Plan? What's that? Let's "sell" the first ten launches really cheap, and see how it goes from there.....

Now the company is between the proverbial rock and a hard spot, nobody's left to reactivate the systems, and I seriously doubt if they'd go back if things pick up again.

The systems are old and creaky, need some serious upgrades, and with all the people gone, the "tribal knowledge" critical to getting things turned on again has pretty much evaporated.

I sure don't know what, if any, the solution would be if they managed to sell a few launches, but it won't be cheap or easy......

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
0