Poll

Will the CRS-6 Core Return Succeed?

Yes
No
Yes, but the core will be lost post landing (weather, human error, etc.)

Author Topic: POLL: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful?  (Read 12307 times)

Offline Graham

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POLL: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful?
« on: 04/13/2015 12:30 pm »
This was suggested on the CRS-6 mission thread and I thought it was a cool idea. I look forward to seeing what you all have to say!

EDIT
Final Tally: Yes: 153. No: 19, No (human error, etc): 14
The results are in! Rocket hit the barge, but too hard to survive. SpaceX is getting closer. Thanks for voting guys, I'll try to do this again next core return attempt.
« Last Edit: 04/14/2015 08:36 pm by Graham »
I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night
- Sarah Williams

Offline Beittil

Re: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful? (Poll)
« Reply #1 on: 04/13/2015 12:40 pm »
Provided the launch goes off on time and without error I believe the return will succeed :)

Offline subzero788

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Re: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful? (Poll)
« Reply #2 on: 04/13/2015 12:51 pm »
Yes. Being optimistic for a change!

Offline Jamsta

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Re: POLL: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful?
« Reply #3 on: 04/13/2015 01:07 pm »
I feel cautiously optimistic about this attempt.

Offline mheney

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Re: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful? (Poll)
« Reply #4 on: 04/13/2015 02:05 pm »
Hope to be proved wrong, but I think they've got one more "uh-oh, better call MAACO" event on the horizon.  I'd feel a bit more optimistic if the attempt were on dry land - but the barge adds just enough difficulty that my money is on another incremental learning experience.

Again, I really hope I'm wrong!

Offline jg

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Re: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful? (Poll)
« Reply #5 on: 04/13/2015 02:10 pm »
Hope to be proved wrong, but I think they've got one more "uh-oh, better call MAACO" event on the horizon.  I'd feel a bit more optimistic if the attempt were on dry land - but the barge adds just enough difficulty that my money is on another incremental learning experience.

Again, I really hope I'm wrong!

I'm sure they will have future failures.  But it doesn't follow they will be sequential, and they've come close enough the last attempts I think they have a good shot at it today; other things will bite them at later dates, particularly when they have less margins than they do today.

Offline kevinof

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Re: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful? (Poll)
« Reply #6 on: 04/13/2015 02:32 pm »
This is my thinking too. There is no latitude (pardon the pun) with the barge - no margin of error. I think if it was on land we would have already seen a successful landing.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed and hoping they succeed.

Hope to be proved wrong, but I think they've got one more "uh-oh, better call MAACO" event on the horizon.  I'd feel a bit more optimistic if the attempt were on dry land - but the barge adds just enough difficulty that my money is on another incremental learning experience.

Again, I really hope I'm wrong!

Offline kirghizstan

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Re: POLL: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful?
« Reply #7 on: 04/13/2015 02:51 pm »
sadly I said no, even though I'm going to be spending the last bit of my work day waiting for any update of a successful landing.  my whole day is being distracted by the excitement of this actually happening.

Offline Graham

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Re: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful? (Poll)
« Reply #8 on: 04/13/2015 02:53 pm »
This is my thinking too. There is no latitude (pardon the pun) with the barge - no margin of error. I think if it was on land we would have already seen a successful landing.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed and hoping they succeed.

Hope to be proved wrong, but I think they've got one more "uh-oh, better call MAACO" event on the horizon.  I'd feel a bit more optimistic if the attempt were on dry land - but the barge adds just enough difficulty that my money is on another incremental learning experience.

Again, I really hope I'm wrong!
I would definitely agree that a RTLS would be a lot easier, however SpaceX has already proven that they can accurately return a core. Last attempted return they hit the barge and before that they hit a small targeted are in the ocean. With more hydraulic fluid for the fins and the practice of the previous attempts I believe that the return will succeed today.
I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night
- Sarah Williams

Offline Kabloona

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Re: POLL: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful?
« Reply #9 on: 04/13/2015 03:23 pm »
Yes, today is the day!

Online Comga

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Re: POLL: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful?
« Reply #10 on: 04/13/2015 03:42 pm »
We are an optimistic bunch today!
And for once, remarkably, I am not among the pessimists.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Mariusuiram

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Re: POLL: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful?
« Reply #11 on: 04/13/2015 03:59 pm »
We are an optimistic bunch today!
And for once, remarkably, I am not among the pessimists.

The current figures sort of match Hans' estimate in the pre-launch conference. He started at a hesitant 75% then stepped up to 80%.

Online jgoldader

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Re: POLL: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful?
« Reply #12 on: 04/13/2015 03:59 pm »
I voted yes.  If this works out, is Elon Musk officially a Steely-Eyed Missile Man?   :)
Recovering astronomer

Offline JasonAW3

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Re: POLL: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful?
« Reply #13 on: 04/13/2015 04:47 pm »
I voted yes.  If this works out, is Elon Musk officially a Steely-Eyed Missile Man?   :)

Nope!  At this point, if they suceed, he becomes a Rocket Man!  Or, maybe we should hold that title until he's launched people into space.

     Personally, if he called for first flight volunteers with no previous experience, I'd do my dangedest to be first in line!
My God!  It's full of universes!

Offline NovaSilisko

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Re: POLL: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful?
« Reply #14 on: 04/13/2015 04:56 pm »
Voted no. I've jinxed things before, never again!  ;)

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: POLL: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful?
« Reply #15 on: 04/13/2015 06:45 pm »
I voted yes.  If this works out, is Elon Musk officially a Steely-Eyed Missile Man?   :)

Definitely not. He will be Mister Evil to the rest of the industry. :) Just look at his tweeter avatar picture with him holding a white cat.

As for the poll, SpaceX should have an excellent chance of doing a bargeslam. So voted yes.

Offline mheney

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Re: POLL: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful?
« Reply #16 on: 04/13/2015 07:07 pm »
That's Doctor Evil, thank you very much ....


Online Orbiter

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Re: POLL: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful?
« Reply #17 on: 04/13/2015 07:15 pm »
I really don't want to say "yes" but I'm optimistic. The accuracy of DSCOVR's first stage landing, despite not being on a barge, gives me hope that CRS-6 will be the one.
KSC Engineer, astronomer, rocket photographer.

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: POLL: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful?
« Reply #18 on: 04/13/2015 07:18 pm »
Do you feel lucky, punk? I voted yes, but there was no option for the number of pieces it's in... ;)
« Last Edit: 04/13/2015 07:21 pm by Rocket Science »
"The laws of physics are unforgiving"
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Offline Endeavour_01

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Re: POLL: Will the CRS-6 Core Return be Successful?
« Reply #19 on: 04/13/2015 07:25 pm »
Voted yes. Given how close CRS-5 came I think this one will make it home.  :)
« Last Edit: 04/13/2015 07:29 pm by Endeavour_01 »
I cheer for both NASA and commercial space. For SLS, Orion, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Dragon, Starship/SH, Starliner, Cygnus and all the rest!
I was blessed to see the launch of Space Shuttle Endeavour on STS-99. The launch was beyond amazing. My 8-year old mind was blown. I remember the noise and seeing the exhaust pour out of the shuttle as it lifted off. I remember staring and watching it soar while it was visible in the clear blue sky. It was one of the greatest moments of my life and I will never forget it.

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