Author Topic: Private Moon Landing in the works?  (Read 152804 times)

Offline 93143

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #240 on: 11/25/2012 08:55 am »
To rule something out requires evidence.  Do you have any?

NO! To rule in something requires evidence!

To rule something out requires a lack of evidence.

I dismiss the possibility of fairies living at the end of my garden because there is a total lack of evidence to support such an idea.

That's not how that works.

If neither reason nor extant evidence specifically supports a proposition, you can disregard it, since there's no cause to believe it to be true.  This is not the same as dismissing it; that is, declaring it to be false.  You don't get to declare something false without evidence that it is in fact false.
« Last Edit: 11/25/2012 09:35 am by 93143 »

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #241 on: 11/25/2012 02:21 pm »
I dismiss the possibility of fairies living at the end of my garden because there is a total lack of evidence to support such an idea.

Look harder.

But seriously...

To rule something out requires evidence.  Do you have any?

NO! To rule in something requires evidence!

To rule something out requires a lack of evidence.

I dismiss the possibility of fairies living at the end of my garden because there is a total lack of evidence to support such an idea.

That's not how that works.

If neither reason nor extant evidence specifically supports a proposition, you can disregard it, since there's no cause to believe it to be true.  This is not the same as dismissing it; that is, declaring it to be false.  You don't get to declare something false without evidence that it is in fact false.

Well put.  Look at the Propellantless thread as a nearby example.  The problem is that in such an "exotic" case, the math becomes impenetrable.  Understanding and presenting the theoretical evidence becomes a major challenge, especially when it comes time to implement the experimental hardware setup to prove the idea.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline go4mars

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #242 on: 11/25/2012 03:36 pm »
the US has some of the worlds largest reserves of rare earth metals, but stopped mining them because China was to easily able to undercut the price.  If this did become a major issue it would be far easier and cheaper to restart these mines and build new ones.
A red herring, ...There are some other sources of heavies, but not as economically interesting, and generally there is a steep environmental toll with production and processing...  But that's missing the point.

That just means current production comes from China in heavies, but we have several massive sources of heavies in the States (Missouri, Nebraska) as well as Canada (Quebec) that are under development now.  Rare earths are is fact not very rare at all and are found all over the world.
You are still missing the point.  Yes there are other sources (which incidentally are considered more expensive to extract and more environmentally costly than the big mine in China).  I'm not suggesting otherwise. 

Bringing back the original quote:

There is already a lot of American discomfort relating to "rare earth elements" which China has already demonstrated they are willing to leverage for geopolitical clout (big news in Japan anyways).  Similarly, in this context it's important to remember that platinum-group metals are strategic high-tech metals.  Not just pretty baubles. 
  I'll expound on a few issues here. 

The first is China's rapid expansion in control over resources globally (metals and energy).  This happens in many ways.  In poor countries, its usually straighforward and uses production sharing agreements.  In countries like Canada, it takes the form of buying Canadian companies wherever possible, and owning up to 20% in just about everything else where possible (so the government doesn't feel inclined to get upset on behalf of upset citizens).  They also buy as much raw goods as they can.  Virtually all of the uranium out of Saskatchewan has gone to China over the last 20 years (for example).  Because they hold trillions in American paper, and expect the value of US currency to decline, they are aggresively pushing a significant amount of that money into resource capture (in various forms and formats) in order to meet future domestic needs on a long timescale.  They don't seem overly worried about valuations.  They just want to know that 15 years from now (or longer) they'll be able to robustly meet domestic needs.  The stability of their government allows them to plan over very long timespans like this.  Assuming resources are limited (and they are in an economic sense until technology breakthroughs make harder to get or lower-grade sources justifiable), then it seems a prudent strategy for a billion strong nation with domineering and economically expansionist ambitions.   

Second, the reason they have the global rare earth market by the balls, is because they have a large deposit that they can produce cheaply on the back of atrocious safety and environmental management.  The price would have to rise significantly in order for the deposits in other countries to compete.  China realises this, and has shown that it is willing to throw its resultant weight around politically. 

Now here is the main point:  Like the rare earth's market, if China obtains a large precious metals deposit that they can produce at a rate which undercuts other mines, then the other mines are likely to close with the resulting price drop.  This shifts them into a monopoly supplier position for high tech and monetary metals (below a certain price) which gives them a significant new set of domestic and geopolitical tools.  I am suggesting that this significant and long-term potential liability is not in the interest of non-Chinese countries to allow. 

Again, the moon is a prominent fixture in Chinese culture, moon holidays and such, and claiming ownership of the moon would buy the political party there a lot of points with their downtrodden masses.  I doubt any countries would try to take it from them by force, but if the international community tried to take it from them, then there are a billion serfs with their nose out of joint, with their unified upset channelled toward something external to their own non-pristine government.  Which could get tricky for non-Chinese governments. 

I know most of you probably don't like thinking in terms of what results can arise decades from now based on todays decisions.  I'm just trying to point out that yes, a primal Chinese landing is worth avoiding if reasonably possible from the long-term perspective of American interests.  If American companies stake an "exclusion zone" around their operations, then the US gov't has a lot more power in international affairs in the future.  Which the American government seems to like. 

So it seems to me realistic that a relatively small amount of Project Azorian style assistance to US mining interests today would pay itself back in the forms of future geopolitical power, the avoidance of the loss of geopolitical power, and corporate taxes on future lunar production. 

Can you see the gnomes in your garden?  Have you caught one?  No.  They're sneaky.  But their presence can be inferred as possible based on the cigarette butts and bite-marks on the carrots.
« Last Edit: 11/25/2012 03:37 pm by go4mars »
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Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #243 on: 11/25/2012 04:06 pm »
... claiming ownership of the moon would buy the political party there a lot of points with their downtrodden masses ... If American companies stake an "exclusion zone" around their operations, then the US gov't has a lot more power in international affairs in the future. ... Can you see the gnomes in your garden?  ... their presence can be inferred as possible based on the cigarette butts and bite-marks on the carrots.

I'm pretty sure that I'm not succumbing to confirmation bias in totally agreeing with this assessment.

About the gnomes, I can only add the example, from my personal experience, of the best bathroom graffitti ever:

Please do not put your cigarette butts in the urinal.  It makes them soggy and hard to light.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline Comga

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #244 on: 11/25/2012 05:33 pm »
TLDNR

What has any of this got to do with this specific effort at a privately financed Moon landing? 

If there isn't thread on claiming ownership of lunar territory it could be started. There are several on Chinese lunar missions.

Bathroom graffiti jokes would belong in the Humor thread, if they were funny.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Warren Platts

Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #245 on: 11/25/2012 06:10 pm »
Somewhat old news, but Alan Stern was quoted in New Scientist that he "can't comment either way" on the landing in the works: the first, direct semi-confirmation on his part that I've been able to find.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn22523-private-moon-mission-rumour-is-glimpse-of-lunar-future.html
"When once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you have been, and there you will always long to return."--Leonardo Da Vinci

Offline Nelson Bridwell

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #246 on: 11/25/2012 06:19 pm »
Re: Bigelow/China--odds are Bigelow is not involved, given the Paragon connection because they make their own inflatables in partnership with Thin Red Line Aerospace. They say their's is better than other inflatables--presumably, that's an indirect reference to Bigelow's modules.

http://www.paragonsdc.com/paragon_projects_09.php

Interesting lead, Warren.

What limited information that I can find suggests that Paragon only manufactures life support components, rather than inflatables, and that Thin Red Line manufatures the fabric structures that were incorporated into Bigelow's modules.  They did the skins of Genesis I and II.

Thin Red Line Aerospace LTD has an estimated 5 employees, and the president is Maxim De Jong.

http://www.theengineer.co.uk/in-depth/the-big-story/compressed-air-energy-storage-has-bags-of-potential/1008374.article

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #247 on: 11/25/2012 06:22 pm »
Somewhat old news, but Alan Stern was quoted in New Scientist that he "can't comment either way" on the landing in the works: the first, direct semi-confirmation on his part that I've been able to find.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn22523-private-moon-mission-rumour-is-glimpse-of-lunar-future.html

The New Scientist gives this website as the source of some of the rumours.  Echo chamber time.

Online FinalFrontier

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #248 on: 11/25/2012 06:28 pm »
Could the reason for the manned landing and outpost be to provide a stronger legal footing for fending off a Chinese claim to ownership of the Moon than unmanned operations would permit?

It has nothing to do with the Chinese.  Repeating over and over doesn't make it true.

Correct.

And as an aside, the only thing I can say to the massive amounts of back and forth speculation going on here is simply that when the time comes you will know who is involved and what the project is called. Until then those of us who already know have no inclination to share that information as its private, so you can speculate as much as you want but it will get you no where.
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Offline Nelson Bridwell

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #249 on: 11/25/2012 06:40 pm »

NO! To rule in something requires evidence!

To rule something out requires a lack of evidence.

I dismiss the possibility of fairies living at the end of my garden because there is a total lack of evidence to support such an idea.

To rule something in requires evidence.  To rule something out requires evidence.  Without evidence you are left with educated guesses.

It is our educated guess that fairies do no exist, but we cannot disprove them.

In the case of China, it is quite reasonable to assume that it was an unspoken motivation for the VSE, just as Soviet ambition was the driving force behind the congessional decision to devote 10% of the federal budget to Apollo.

In this case the question is if "private" investors would be concerned enough about the threat of Chinese domination of space to sink their own dollars into a manned space effort.  That is the weak point.

And I also have to wonder if Bigelow is genuinely concerned about China, or if he is using that as a threat to lure taxpayer dollars.

Then again, maybe Golden Spike is nothing more than a low-budget powerpoint design amusement for some people.

Keep those guesses coming!
« Last Edit: 11/25/2012 07:16 pm by Nelson Bridwell »

Online FinalFrontier

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #250 on: 11/25/2012 06:45 pm »

NO! To rule in something requires evidence!

To rule something out requires a lack of evidence.

I dismiss the possibility of fairies living at the end of my garden because there is a total lack of evidence to support such an idea.

To rule something in requires evidence.  To rule something out requires evidence.  Without evidence you are left with educated guesses.

It is our educated guess that fairies do no exist, but we cannot disprove them.

In the case of China, it is quite reasonable to assume that it was an unspoken motivation for the VSE, just as Soviet ambition was the driving force behind the congessional decision to devote 10% of the federal budget to Apollo.

In this case the question is if "private" investors would be concerned enough about the threat of Chinese domination of space to sink their own dollars into a manned space effort.  That is the weak point.

And I also have to wonder if Bigelow is genuinely concerned about China, or if he is using that as a threat to lure taxpayer dollars.

Then again, maybe Golden Spike is nothing more than a low-budget powerpoint design amustement for some people.

Keep those guesses coming!



The private investors are not Chinese. The company managers are not Chinese. The Chinese have exactly 0 involvement in this project or its funding.



That is a fact. You have heard it from several people who know more about this then you do if you choose to continue speculation on Chinese involvement you do so at the risk of derailing the thread.
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Offline 93143

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #251 on: 11/25/2012 06:57 pm »
No one suggested the Chinese were behind this.  The suggestion was that this might be at least partly an attempt to beat the Chinese back to the moon, so as to forestall any attempt by China to claim the moon as their territory.

I will not comment on the plausibility of this suggestion, but if you're going to slap someone down for saying something, it should at least be something he actually said.

Like this:

the congessional decision to devote 10% of the federal budget to Apollo.

Apollo's most expensive year took less than 4.5% of the federal budget.  Was there some contingency commit I'm unaware of that never got exercised?
« Last Edit: 11/25/2012 07:06 pm by 93143 »

Offline go4mars

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #252 on: 11/25/2012 07:05 pm »
In this case the question is if "private" investors would be concerned enough about the threat of Chinese domination of space to sink their own dollars into a manned space effort.  That is the weak point.
Here's an example.  I find a trillion barrel bitumen deposit in Saskatchewan, which has better reservoir qualities, and lower government take.  I contact the President of ConocoPhillips, who has very significant bitumen assets in Alberta, but of lower quality, and where government royalties are higher.  I ask him, "Would you like to participate in this project with me through investment?"  His answer should note that participation will allow exposure to the financial upside, and mitigation of losses to the downside, because his current assets in Alberta will lose value when the discovery is announced. 

Mining interests (companies and their shareholders) may not be concerned about the threat of Chinese domination of space.  But they might be concerned about the threat of Chinese domination of metal market supply.  If the current metals market is worth tens or hundreds of billion$ globally, and investing a few billion can allow participation in upside and downside benefits, then it might be worth a serious look, assuming they see the competitive threat as credible.  Clearly it's better to undercut yourself with something better than to be undercut by competitors who have something better.

Maybe China isn't a factor in the minds of participating investors.  Perhaps it should be in the mind of non-Chinese governments.  Perhaps not. 

In any event, if someone thinks they have a credible lunar mining business plan, then it's clearly advantageous to implement it before other groups do (while prices are higher and while limited resources are effectively up for grabs). 

I have not suggested Chinese involvement in golden spike in any way except as a potential competitor. 
« Last Edit: 11/25/2012 07:12 pm by go4mars »
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Offline Nelson Bridwell

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #253 on: 11/25/2012 07:18 pm »
the congessional decision to devote 10% of the federal budget to Apollo.

Apollo's most expensive year took less than 4.5% of the federal budget.  Was there some contingency commit I'm unaware of that never got exercised?

I stand corrected...5% of the federal budget!

Offline Khadgars

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #254 on: 11/25/2012 07:25 pm »
Quote
That just means current production comes from China in heavies, but we have several massive sources of heavies in the States (Missouri, Nebraska) as well as Canada (Quebec) that are under development now.  Rare earths are is fact not very rare at all and are found all over the world.
 You are still missing the point.  Yes there are other sources (which incidentally are considered more expensive to extract and more environmentally costly than the big mine in China).  I'm not suggesting otherwise. 

Bringing back the original quote:

Not to get too much into it, but its the very pressure that China is putting on the supply of rare earths that makes harvesting mines outside of China very attractive.  As you stated, these metals are critical and having secure sources of it is extremely attractive despite the higher cost.  By the end of the decade China's monopoly on rare earths will be over regardless of price, companies are willing to pay extra to have secure source outside of China.  I can send you several links if you're interested.

The only reason I'm going off topic is because it was referenced as a possible reason to mine the moon, privately no less.  Rare earths are not rare at all and mines all over the world are going into production regardless of what happens in China.

I don't see how a private moon landing makes any financial sense at this point nor do I see how they have the expertise or experience to do so.  Can we wait to see how commercial crew does in LEO and at the ISS for a few years before worrying about private moon landing.
« Last Edit: 11/25/2012 07:27 pm by Khadgars »
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Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #255 on: 11/25/2012 07:41 pm »
The only reason I'm going off topic is because it was referenced as a possible reason to mine the moon, privately no less.  Rare earths are not rare at all and mines all over the world are going into production regardless of what happens in China.

On top of that, there is no evidence of high grade deposits of rare earths on the Moon. My understanding is that the processes that created those ores on Earth have not been present on the Moon.

Even if there were rare earth deposits on the moon, it is probable that it would be easier to mine asteroids for them. There is no shortage of asteroids, some are suitable orbits and processing them seems no more difficult than the moon.

Mining technology is improving all the time. While high grade ores are running out fast there are plenty of lower grade ores. Mining those low grade ores is going to be cheaper than space based mining, except just possibly in one or two rare instances.

Offline RocketmanUS

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #256 on: 11/25/2012 08:15 pm »
Are they planning on funding their own Lunar lander or is the lander already being funded by another?

If they are funding it them selves are they looking for investors?
If they are this could be an opportunity for people to get involved with small investments like $20,$50,$100 per month or per year as their budget allowed. If 100,000,000 people invested just $20 each per year the private group would have $2B to work with.

An option for the private group or others like them to attract small investors could be to set up a fund that the investors money went into were if there was any profit made then some of it could be sent to schools. This way the investor could win in several ways.
1 ) invest in a space program that they want
2 ) possible see privately ( no government ) crewed Lunar landing in the near term
3 ) help create good jobs in their market area
4 ) if there is a profit then it could help fund future education
5 ) I'm sure the list can be added to

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #257 on: 11/25/2012 09:29 pm »
Was always going to be the case, but this thread is getting to be a bit rediculous with some shouty posts.

Deleted it back a bit as it was also fast turning into an L2 advert when I don't want people joining L2 for any other reason than to support the site, the rest is a very big bonus....

The main thing everyone needs to know is there's still likely to be an announcement in December, then we can all go nuts into the details.
« Last Edit: 11/25/2012 09:38 pm by Chris Bergin »
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Offline Warren Platts

Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #258 on: 11/25/2012 10:04 pm »
The private investors are not Chinese. The company managers are not Chinese. The Chinese have exactly 0 involvement in this project or its funding.

That is a fact. ...

Actually, that's not a fact. The investors remain unknown at this point. Customers <> investors. All we know is there  is supposedly some big money behind the project this time, and it's in the billions, and that at least some of it comes from offshore. Therefore, the $XB could be coming from practically anywhere. China has more than its fair share of billionaires. There's no reason that one or more of these could not be involved as a potential investor (or customer) either now or later down the line. Or is there?

They are going to need as many billions as they can lay their hands on IMHO, and so won't be picky where it comes from, as long as it's halfway legal...
"When once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you have been, and there you will always long to return."--Leonardo Da Vinci

Offline Nelson Bridwell

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #259 on: 11/26/2012 12:19 am »

Deleted it back a bit as it was also fast turning into an L2 advert when I don't want people joining L2 for any other reason than to support the site, the rest is a very big bonus....


Noble sentiments!  I just might have to join...

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