http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Apr-2017/0155.htmlThe launch hazard chart for the region near the launch site reveals that the trajectory will follow the northeast coastof North America; therefore, the target orbit is a quasi-60 degree LEO, or a Molniya.http://www.patrick.af.mil/Portals/14/documents/Launch%20Hazard%20Area%20Maps/4-30-2017%20LHA.pdf?ver=2017-04-20-154754-750Per my earlier posts in this thread, since the return of the Falcon 9's first stage is targeting the launch site, thepayload is either headed for LEO, or is a fairly low in mass and headed for Molniya.If LEO, I suspect it is a replacement or follow-on to the experimental USA 193, which was launched on NROL-21, andfailed upon reaching its 58.5 deg, 360 km orbit.If Molniya, then I suspect it is a new generation of SDS Molniya, built on Boeing's BSS-702SP bus.Molniya SDS seems more likely.Ted Molczan
Quote from: Targeteer on 04/21/2017 03:50 pmhttp://www.satobs.org/seesat/Apr-2017/0155.htmlThe launch hazard chart for the region near the launch site reveals that the trajectory will follow the northeast coastof North America; therefore, the target orbit is a quasi-60 degree LEO, or a Molniya.http://www.patrick.af.mil/Portals/14/documents/Launch%20Hazard%20Area%20Maps/4-30-2017%20LHA.pdf?ver=2017-04-20-154754-750Per my earlier posts in this thread, since the return of the Falcon 9's first stage is targeting the launch site, thepayload is either headed for LEO, or is a fairly low in mass and headed for Molniya.If LEO, I suspect it is a replacement or follow-on to the experimental USA 193, which was launched on NROL-21, andfailed upon reaching its 58.5 deg, 360 km orbit.If Molniya, then I suspect it is a new generation of SDS Molniya, built on Boeing's BSS-702SP bus.Molniya SDS seems more likely.Ted MolczanWhile a long shot due to the presence of NROL-79, I wonder why NOSS is eliminated from the probable list? It could be that 79 is of the older generation and 76 is a new prototype, which could theoretically explain such a scenario.Speaking of which, where is the NRO's mission patch? Such patches are usually made public long before by now. Or will the fairing spots a huge question mark?
While a long shot due to the presence of NROL-79, I wonder why NOSS is eliminated from the probable list? It could be that 79 is of the older generation and 76 is a new prototype, which could theoretically explain such a scenario.
Quote from: Galactic Penguin SST on 04/23/2017 02:04 pmWhile a long shot due to the presence of NROL-79, I wonder why NOSS is eliminated from the probable list? It could be that 79 is of the older generation and 76 is a new prototype, which could theoretically explain such a scenario.My main problem with it being NOSS is not how close it is to L79 per se, but rather that NOSS seems to operate with four pairs of satellites, none of which are due for replacement. A prototype could be one way to explain an out-of-sequence launch; a failing satellite or expansion of the constellation would be other explanations.This could also explain an oddity in the ODNI budget document that Snowden leaked to the Washington Post a few years ago. This listed three pairs of satellites: Intruder 5/6; Intruder 7/8 and Intruder 11/12. There was no Intruder 9 or 10. For reasons that I intend to go over in a separate thread in the not-too-distant future, I believe each number relates to a pair of satellites, and that NROL-79 was Intruder 8. Potentially Intruder 9/10 could be funded elsewhere if they were being built for R&D. I still think it's very early to be seeing another launch as I wouldn't have expected one until around 2020/21 to replace NROL-34.I like Ted's theory that it is a HEO Quasar. If it's a 702SP then three satellites would be enough for continuous coverage. Previous Molniya SDS launches have used a lower deployment orbit with the satellite performing orbit raising, so I wouldn't rule out a heavier satellite going to an intermediate orbit. The question is if it is a Quasar going to HEO, why now? The three most-recently-launched satellites are over nine (L-24), twelve (L-1) and nineteen (L-5) years old respectively; contemporary GEO satellites were replaced after eleven years. If they only need two satellites, the schedule's about right for replacing L-1.LEO shouldn't be ruled out. Even if it's not some kind of L-21 followup, it could be a different demonstration mission, a new class of satellite or even a rideshare for several experimental satellites.
Any info which locations will be available for watching this launch and which ones will be closed? NASA causeway, Playalinda Beach etc. ?Thanks/first time I will be watching launch in person/
Rocket Launch Update: No launch viewing opportunities available at #KennedySpaceCenter for #SpaceX #NROL76 NET April 30
Is this normal for NROL launches?
Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 04/24/2017 04:57 pmIs this normal for NROL launches?QuoteRocket Launch Update: No launch viewing opportunities available at #KennedySpaceCenter for #SpaceX #NROL76 NET April 30https://twitter.com/explorespaceksc/status/856541703519571969NO...But it might be because of the launch time, KSC VC does not open until 9am...
Is this normal for NROL launches?QuoteRocket Launch Update: No launch viewing opportunities available at #KennedySpaceCenter for #SpaceX #NROL76 NET April 30https://twitter.com/explorespaceksc/status/856541703519571969
Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 04/24/2017 04:57 pmIs this normal for NROL launches?NO...But it might be because of the launch time, KSC VC does not open until 9am...
Quote from: jacqmans on 04/24/2017 05:17 pmBut it might be because of the launch time, KSC VC does not open until 9am...I suspect the same--Visitor Center open/close time is the determinant. NROL-76 launch window is 7:00-9:30 am EDT; launch window opens well before the VC opens.Which LC-39A launches thus far this year had launch opportunities from the KSC Visitor Center?Payload Launch, ET KSC VC launch viewing?CRS-10 9:38 am EST ?EchoStar XXIII 2:00 am EDT no?SES-10 6:27 pm EDT yes Re: Launch, Land, and Relaunch Party Thread
But it might be because of the launch time, KSC VC does not open until 9am...
It's not obvious that the Visitor Center hours are the real reason for no special viewing arrangements.
Quote from: Comga on 04/25/2017 02:06 amIt's not obvious that the Visitor Center hours are the real reason for no special viewing arrangements.Apart from them tweeting that is actually the reason?
Quote from: JamesH65 on 04/25/2017 11:53 amQuote from: Comga on 04/25/2017 02:06 amIt's not obvious that the Visitor Center hours are the real reason for no special viewing arrangements.Apart from them tweeting that is actually the reason?Oh. I missed that. Sounds strange but they said it. "Never mind!"😁
The key phrase from their tweet is "way outside". They'll open early or stay open late...within reason.
Quote from: cscott on 04/26/2017 02:25 amThe key phrase from their tweet is "way outside". They'll open early or stay open late...within reason.I also wouldn't be surprised if they stretched the times a bit more for NASA missions than for commercial (or NROL) launches...