Author Topic: Dwarf planet discovery hints at a hidden Super Earth in solar system  (Read 296750 times)

Offline Star One

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13997
  • UK
  • Liked: 3974
  • Likes Given: 220
Pondering what is keeping objects like the recently discovered TNO Niku in place, it can't be the theorised planet nine so it seems it must be some as yet undiscovered mechanism.

http://www.centauri-dreams.org/?p=36121
« Last Edit: 08/15/2016 05:02 pm by Star One »

Offline Star One

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13997
  • UK
  • Liked: 3974
  • Likes Given: 220
Mike Brown sticks his neck out as regards planet nine.

Quote
Mike Brown
3h
Mike Brown ‏@plutokiller
@Rickie99_ I predict within 3 years it'll be found.

https://mobile.twitter.com/plutokiller

What say people on this prediction?
« Last Edit: 08/26/2016 08:07 pm by Star One »

Offline CuddlyRocket

Mike Brown sticks his neck out as regards planet nine.

Quote
Mike Brown
3h
Mike Brown ‏@plutokiller
@Rickie99_ I predict within 3 years it'll be found.

https://mobile.twitter.com/plutokiller

What say people on this prediction?

It will either be right or wrong! :)

Mike probably has a pretty good idea of what search capacity is going to be available and therefore how long a search capable of detecting P9 is going to take to cover the entire presumed area. And he may as well be optimistic on the likelihood of success!

Offline Star One

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13997
  • UK
  • Liked: 3974
  • Likes Given: 220
Mike Brown sticks his neck out as regards planet nine.

Quote
Mike Brown
3h
Mike Brown ‏@plutokiller
@Rickie99_ I predict within 3 years it'll be found.

https://mobile.twitter.com/plutokiller

What say people on this prediction?

It will either be right or wrong! :)

Mike probably has a pretty good idea of what search capacity is going to be available and therefore how long a search capable of detecting P9 is going to take to cover the entire presumed area. And he may as well be optimistic on the likelihood of success!
I was just surprised to see him come out in public with such a specific figure. Since reading the recent book on the vexed history of the planet that never was Vulcan, I've wondered if planet nine could be yet another example of this, though our mathematical modeling has improved greatly and we now know about relativity I can't help wondering.

Offline clongton

  • Expert
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12053
  • Connecticut
    • Direct Launcher
  • Liked: 7347
  • Likes Given: 3749
Very surprised to see him make this prediction, especially because it is dependent on the "presumed area" wher they think it might be. What if it's not in that area?
Chuck - DIRECT co-founder
I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline gospacex

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3024
  • Liked: 543
  • Likes Given: 604
Other areas are excluded by previous searches.

Offline hop

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3352
  • Liked: 553
  • Likes Given: 891
I was just surprised to see him come out in public with such a specific figure. Since reading the recent book on the vexed history of the planet that never was Vulcan, I've wondered if planet nine could be yet another example of this, though our mathematical modeling has improved greatly and we now know about relativity I can't help wondering.
FWIW, he has been saying he expects it to be found in the next few years pretty much from the start.

Offline leovinus

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1094
  • Porto, Portugal
  • Liked: 865
  • Likes Given: 1727
Other areas are excluded by previous searches.

In case anyone missed it, background info on the search and excluded area's at http://www.findplanetnine.com

Offline clongton

  • Expert
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12053
  • Connecticut
    • Direct Launcher
  • Liked: 7347
  • Likes Given: 3749
Other areas are excluded by previous searches.

I know that. But in those areas, and in the current one, they are looking for an object that they have pretty much defined. My point is that if P9 ends up not conforming to that definition, they may never find it at all, having already missed it in those other areas, as well as the current - because - they didn't recognize it.

All I am saying is that it is counterproductive to be making such a prediction when everything they are doing is based on supposition; suppositions based, I agree, on observations but suppositions none-the-less.
Chuck - DIRECT co-founder
I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline Phil Stooke

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1354
  • Canada
  • Liked: 1424
  • Likes Given: 1
Looking isn't the only possible way to detect a large object like this.  If it is large enough it may generate a magnetic field, so there may be radio emissions.  All the known outer planets emit radio signals.  And we have very sensitive tracking of our spacecraft on interstellar trajectories, moving off in different directions.  If one of them is slightly affected by the gravity of a large distant object more than others, we might detect its presence that way.  We had the so-called Pioneer anomaly, eventually explained as a very subtle effect caused by the vehicle itself.  If we can detect that we might detect other anomalies in Voyager trajectories, or from reanalysis of the Pioneers.  I would assume these ideas are being worked on (or have been considered and rejected), though I have not heard anything. Just saying - looking isn't everything.

Offline hop

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3352
  • Liked: 553
  • Likes Given: 891
I know that. But in those areas, and in the current one, they are looking for an object that they have pretty much defined. My point is that if P9 ends up not conforming to that definition, they may never find it at all, having already missed it in those other areas, as well as the current - because - they didn't recognize it.
Beyond a certain point if it doesn't conform to the definitions, it's not the "Planet 9" they predicted. The whole reason "Planet 9" is more interesting than many previous "something big could be out there" type predictions is that it's fairly specific.

Of course it's possible that Planet 9 was missed due to bad luck in one of the regions thought to be ruled out, but by definition the odds of that are low. If the surveys of the highest probability areas turn up empty and no other data invalidates the Planet 9 hypothesis, people will likely go back and look harder at the others. If all else fails, LSST will likely answer the question definitively.

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11159
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Sometimes it feels like Trantor in the time of Hari Seldon
  • Liked: 7392
  • Likes Given: 72406
Mike Brown sticks his neck out as regards planet nine.

Quote
Mike Brown
3h
Mike Brown ‏@plutokiller
@Rickie99_ I predict within 3 years it'll be found.

https://mobile.twitter.com/plutokiller

What say people on this prediction?

Reminds me of Babe Ruth...pointing to center field before hitting a home run over the Wrigley Field center field fence in the 1932 World Series.

Is it possible that Brown's team has already found a candidate object and are making follow-up observations?
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.) My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!" Yes, there are God-given rights. Do you wish to gainsay the Declaration of Independence?

Offline jgoldader

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 760
  • Liked: 322
  • Likes Given: 171
Is it possible that Brown's team has already found a candidate object and are making follow-up observations?

Maybe.

You wouldn't need more than several days, a couple of weeks at most, I'd think, to get confirmation of a very distant object.  Images a day or two apart easily show Kuiper Belt objects.  For distant objects, most of the angular motion is due to parallax, because the velocity of Earth is so much greater than the velocity of an object on a distant heliocentric orbit.  It only takes a few observations to get the heliocentric distance pretty accurately, as I recall.  Multiple oppositions would be needed to accurately pin down the details of the orbit.  More likely, he has just done the math for how big the survey area is, and the rate at which it's being covered.

However, if he does have a candidate, he'd have to have access to a couple years' data (which could include pre-discovery observations) to pin down the Longitude of the ascending node and argument of perihelion, and those are what would make the putative planet 9 stand out from other distant objects.  I'm pretty sure Phil can correct me if I'm wrong.  I did some work on this, but it was about... Goodness... 15 years ago (I'm getting old).

He'd be gambling on keeping something a few hundred AUs away under his hat for years, that nobody else would find it and announce it first.  Big gamble, but go big or go home.
Recovering astronomer

Offline Bynaus

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 562
  • Scientist, Curator, Writer, Family man
  • Switzerland
    • Final-Frontier.ch
  • Liked: 424
  • Likes Given: 316
Hm, Mike Brown just told another user on twitter that P9 is "definetly real". That could - but perhaps shouldn't - be read as them having found a promising candidate. Or it could just be a figure of speech.
More of my thoughts: www.final-frontier.ch (in German)

Offline Star One

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13997
  • UK
  • Liked: 3974
  • Likes Given: 220
Hm, Mike Brown just told another user on twitter that P9 is "definetly real". That could - but perhaps shouldn't - be read as them having found a promising candidate. Or it could just be a figure of speech.

I would caution that you need to look at the context of the enquiry there, but who knows.

If he did find a strong candidate how many independent observing teams would have to verify it for him to announce its discovery, what I mean is there an agreed number of independent observations that you need for this?
« Last Edit: 08/28/2016 11:54 am by Star One »

Offline jgoldader

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 760
  • Liked: 322
  • Likes Given: 171
Hm, Mike Brown just told another user on twitter that P9 is "definetly real". That could - but perhaps shouldn't - be read as them having found a promising candidate. Or it could just be a figure of speech.

I would caution that you need to look at the context of the enquiry there, but who knows.

If he did find a strong candidate how many independent observing teams would have to verify it for him to announce its discovery, what I mean is there an agreed number of independent observations that you need for this?

Only one team is needed; Brown's bona fides are well-established.  What's needed are several observations over a long enough arc of time to establish the orbital parameters.  Like I said above, my guess is data spanning a few years.  You can get distances with short arcs (few days) but Brown's looking for not just the semimajor axis, but the orientation of the orbit.  In essence, you have to wait until the curvature of the orbit is measured well enough that you can accurately fit an ellipse to it.
Recovering astronomer

Offline Star One

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13997
  • UK
  • Liked: 3974
  • Likes Given: 220
Hm, Mike Brown just told another user on twitter that P9 is "definetly real". That could - but perhaps shouldn't - be read as them having found a promising candidate. Or it could just be a figure of speech.

I would caution that you need to look at the context of the enquiry there, but who knows.

If he did find a strong candidate how many independent observing teams would have to verify it for him to announce its discovery, what I mean is there an agreed number of independent observations that you need for this?

Only one team is needed; Brown's bona fides are well-established.  What's needed are several observations over a long enough arc of time to establish the orbital parameters.  Like I said above, my guess is data spanning a few years.  You can get distances with short arcs (few days) but Brown's looking for not just the semimajor axis, but the orientation of the orbit.  In essence, you have to wait until the curvature of the orbit is measured well enough that you can accurately fit an ellipse to it.

Thank you. So he could have already found it but would need to observe it for a long space of time to confirm it. So much for my desire for a quick answer on this.
« Last Edit: 08/28/2016 01:45 pm by Star One »

Offline hop

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3352
  • Liked: 553
  • Likes Given: 891
Hm, Mike Brown just told another user on twitter that P9 is "definetly real". That could - but perhaps shouldn't - be read as them having found a promising candidate. Or it could just be a figure of speech.
As I mentioned before, he has been expressing confidence that it is real and will be found in the next several years ever since the announcement. I wouldn't read more into statements like this.

Offline CuddlyRocket

If he did find a strong candidate how many independent observing teams would have to verify it for him to announce its discovery, what I mean is there an agreed number of independent observations that you need for this?

Only one team is needed; Brown's bona fides are well-established.  What's needed are several observations over a long enough arc of time to establish the orbital parameters.  Like I said above, my guess is data spanning a few years.  You can get distances with short arcs (few days) but Brown's looking for not just the semimajor axis, but the orientation of the orbit.  In essence, you have to wait until the curvature of the orbit is measured well enough that you can accurately fit an ellipse to it.

Thank you. So he could have already found it but would need to observe it for a long space of time to confirm it. So much for my desire for a quick answer on this.

He could announce it well before determining the orbital parameters. If it's anything like the size mooted, it will be obviously a planet. There are plenty of things you can establish about such an object - including whether it has a moon and therefore its mass - without knowing the orbit.

Offline Alpha_Centauri

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 759
  • England
  • Liked: 335
  • Likes Given: 158
Interesting;

https://carnegiescience.edu/news/hunt-ninth-planet-reveals-new-extremely-distant-solar-system-objects
Quote
Hunt for ninth planet reveals new extremely distant Solar System objects

...2013 FT28 shows similar clustering in some of these parameters (its semi-major axis, eccentricity, inclination, and argument of perihelion angle, for angle enthusiasts out there) but one of these parameters, an angle called the longitude of perihelion, is different from that of the other extreme objects, which makes that particular clustering trend less strong...



Edit: They added a new image with the third object. Looks reminiscent of the still unpublished one from Michelle Bannister's team.

« Last Edit: 08/30/2016 08:31 am by Alpha_Centauri »

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1