Author Topic: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration  (Read 22861 times)

Offline QuantumG

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #20 on: 06/23/2014 06:44 am »
Maybe if people didn't say things that clearly indicated that they don't know what the term "jobs program" means, others wouldn't feel the need to keep pointing it out.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline KelvinZero

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #21 on: 06/23/2014 07:59 am »
Another way of phrasing the OP could be:

"What if some threat/opportunity from space appeared that deserved the defense budget?"

Its not about the hypothesis itself, simply what is technically possible without bankrupting ourselves. I think it could make a good hard SF or docudrama just to explore what we actually have to work with.


Offline Darren_Hensley

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #22 on: 06/23/2014 08:44 am »
We'd have tons more stuff, if we had funding like this. There is so much in labs right now, because we cant fund larger versions of the things. No you can't solve all problems by throwing an inordanent amout of money at it. But no one can dispute the power of funding. It can move mountians.
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Offline MATTBLAK

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #23 on: 06/23/2014 09:29 am »
I'd settle for payloads and people beyond Low Earth Orbit!!
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Offline Darren_Hensley

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #24 on: 06/23/2014 09:40 am »
I'd settle for payloads and people beyond Low Earth Orbit!!

A wise and cautious step in the right direction, but a little on the general topic side. Surely 500 billion could get a few details?

A space station in L1/L2? Asteroids?, Moon?, Mars?, Pluto?  BLEO could be as simple as a flyby mission in HEO. Please expand...
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Offline MATTBLAK

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #25 on: 06/23/2014 11:48 am »
The $500 billion figure intrigues me, but also frustrates - it's a complete fantasy in the real, semi-tragic world that is space funding. If there were even more international co-operation and everyone got a big space budget boost; $50 billion per annum would be more realistic and would nevertheless give excellent results if spent wisely. With $500 gigabucks per year, you'd likely be talking about starting moving many people off Earth per year; as colonists. But even with big infrastructure, I can't see more than current 'Antarctica levels' of scientists, engineers, Doctors, cooks and janitors living on a Moonbase - dozens of folk then, per outpost. You might get that many on Mars, too eventually and hundreds living in Earth orbit on multiple space stations.

If true colonization of space is your goal; then $500 gigabucks would be a good start. But on Earth; even a trillion dollars will get you an invasion and temporary occupation of a country; not it's colonization, so perhaps even $500 billion is not enough?! But like I said; a good start. Assuming everyone supports Space Exploration - citizens, politicians and business folk - and the detailed scientific dissemination of the Moon, Mars, Ceres, Ganymede, Callisto and Titan; how many people would actually be needed to have permanent and semi-permanent bases on these places? Two or three bases on the Moon: one permanent and the other two man-tended? 12 people on the permanent base and 4 at a time tending to the man-tended ones? Two bases on Mars with a dozen people each? Six people on Ceres? Six people each on the two biggest moons of Jupiter? A dozen folk on Titan?

Advanced and reliable transportation vehicles would need development - Propellant Depots, Nuclear thermal and nuclear electric powered ships sporting good radiation protection and stable artificial gravity solutions. Safe and reliable surface habitats and power systems, advanced air and water recycling, hydroponic and other food solutions... The lists are huge and very detailed. That's why all this type of stuff is going to happen slowly - if it happens at all. Most of the technology needs development and testing; Mir and ISS have been good pathfinders. The Moon should be a place to further pathfind these things; so it can then be extended to Mars and beyond as well.
« Last Edit: 06/23/2014 12:34 pm by MATTBLAK »
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Offline Jim

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #26 on: 06/23/2014 01:05 pm »
And spending it on "space" hardware is not a reasonable answer.  There has to be a goal. 

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #27 on: 06/23/2014 01:41 pm »
We have never not had enough money to begin the attempt at off-world colonization.

Our government's stated need since at least Korea, is to engage in elective war rather than peacefully promote democracy.  JFK made an attempt to forge peace, and we know how that story turned out.  No subsequent President has since governed on the basis of peace.

Obviously, as the civil rights movement has made clear, grassroots movements can change our government's priorities so as to increase the benefits to the population as a whole.  Our government will simply not change its priorities regarding space until there is a widespread grassroots movement supporting space.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline Jim

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #28 on: 06/23/2014 02:09 pm »
We have never not had enough money to begin the attempt at off-world colonization.

There is a good reason, see below

until there is a widespread grassroots movement supporting space.

The chance of that is almost nil
« Last Edit: 06/23/2014 02:10 pm by Jim »

Offline go4mars

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #29 on: 06/23/2014 02:39 pm »
I'd put it in prize purses.  If it can't all be spent in a given prize, it just sits and waits for someone to do it. 
Make the prize goals aggressive and the purse's heavy.
Materials sciences and capabilities could be $250 billion/year, and the rest for specific achievements by any means: For example "Image Vanth at X resolution in Y wavelengths". 
Elasmotherium; hurlyburly Doggerlandic Jentilak steeds insouciantly gallop in viridescent taiga, eluding deluginal Burckle's abyssal excavation.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #30 on: 06/23/2014 04:08 pm »
Even after you cut the military to 0, you will still have to cut 1 trillion in other spending before you have the needed surplus to do this.I'm a space nerd like the rest of you but I wouldn't vote for a candidate who wanted to bankrupt a country over space adventurism. Money isn't even NASA's problem. NASA's problem is they have no over-arching goal or their over-arching goal is not necessarily achievable(on finding extraterriestrial life...it may not exist in our vicinity).

And what happens when another group starts mining your source of water on Mars that your colony has been relying on for years. Somehow I think they would have a point in saying you don't own it. You can build the most advanced civilization and economy you want, but if you can't defend it, it can be turned to rubble extremely quickly(see Europe 1945). Ohh, and withdrawing to borders doesn't necessarily make defense that much cheaper. The home court advantage is big but hardly paramount. Say the chinese were to spend 500 billion per year on their military and we would spend 100 billion in the  2020s. Just because you have no overseas bases and they have to cross the pacific doesn't mean you couldn't be defeated. Also, fighting at home actually is a disadvantage because it puts your infrastructure that you rely on at risk. Defense is easier with a larger buffer zone even if their logistics are more costly and more difficult.

Lastly, decreasing defense spending would cause severe economic problems in the United States. We have a tremendous trade deficit with the rest of world and the only reason we keep on getting goods shipped here in greater value than the ones we ship there is because we print money. The only thing that is stopping them from rejecting our paper for actual goods is the status of our currency. The only thing backing our currency's value during this period of massive printing is its status as the world's reserve currency. The only reason that they use the United States dollar vs the Euro or the Ghanian cedi as "rainy day" money is that when the SHTF(when that foriegn reserve money might actually need to be used), the U.S. is the one that is most likely to still be standing militarily. Basically, other countries are absorbing this vast expansion of the money supply as the Fed prints about 1 trillion per year to finance the federal debt and stimulate lending. Because of the United States position militarily, other countries are still accepting ever greater amounts of dollars and putting it in their tree like a squirrel for winter. If they didn't do this, the Fed couldn't buy treasury notes to finance the United States deficit, and the 500 billion in military spending to be redirected to space exploration would evaporate completely from the budget.

Offline Ronpur50

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #31 on: 06/23/2014 11:00 pm »
So, basically, we could convert the massive Military Industrial Complex into a Spaceflight Industrial Complex.  I bit like what was done in WW2 with almost every major industry being converted to military production.  With that much production capability, we could move the entire population of the country off Earth into a fleet of those massive O'Neill cylinders. 

If I am dreaming, I might as well go big.

Offline beancounter

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #32 on: 06/24/2014 05:57 am »
Likely true, yes. If Space Exploration and spending were capped at the modern, 'magic' amount of 1% percent discretionary Federal spending, it would still be 'only' about $40 billion per year. What NASA and it's Commercial Space partners could do with that... :'(
Yep, spend it on jobs programs.

But if they actually go somewhere and do something... So what? If Space X filled all the job vacancies, would that not be a 'jobs program' too? That kind of bee-yotchin about 'jobs programs' is getting a bit cynical and very, very old. And is therefore no longer clever. Move along... :(

I'm merely responding in kind.  This speculation is simply fantasy.  There's absolutely no point in this and hence my comment.  If nothing changed and the same old methods prevailed then large jobs programs a la Cx, SLS and Orion would be the order of the day. Period.
Just to make my day, tell me I'm wrong.   ;D
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Offline MATTBLAK

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #33 on: 06/24/2014 06:32 am »
Building a dam or a new Freeway is a 'jobs program' - even if they might actually be needed. A deep space exploration program is probably never needed - just wanted or deemed necessary by people with a bit of future vision like me (and you?). The local council where I live has resurfaced the road outside my house for the third time in 4 years - it absolutely did not need it. That is the best definition of a 'jobs program' I've ever seen.

Constellation, Orion/SLS are only 'jobs programs' if they never get built, never go anywhere and never do anything. You have been implying that these sorts of projects are worthless and by extension, probably all manned space efforts - you could put the ISS in that jobs basket too, if you wanted. I put it to you that your participation in this thread and some of your opinions are themselves wastes of time. You have called this thread a fantasy (it probably is - I pretty much said so a few posts back). There: I've said it - some of what you've said is wrong, (did that 'make your day?) even if the spirit of some of it is right. This is the closest to an Ad hominem statement I've made in ages. It seems you don't like manned spaceflight, don't support viable alternatives and don't want any money spent on all this 'fantasy'. It's all too hard - let's give up, boo-hoo. Hell; most of it has all gone away anyway. The enemies of space exploration and the future are chipping away all the time now. Quick - let's all savor this thread before someone hits the Moderator alert button and locks this interesting but ultimately futile thread. Sheesh... :(
« Last Edit: 06/25/2014 10:30 pm by MATTBLAK »
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Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #34 on: 06/24/2014 01:12 pm »
until there is a widespread grassroots movement supporting space.

The chance of that is almost nil

Actually, I think you're wrong.  The chances are clearly between slim and fat.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline vulture4

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #35 on: 06/24/2014 02:30 pm »
until there is a widespread grassroots movement supporting space.

The chance of that is almost nil

Actually, I think you're wrong.  The chances are clearly between slim and fat.
Having spent years running an L-5 chapter at a major university in a major city, I think there are a lot of people in the US who "support" space. They just aren't willing to pay any more for human spaceflight with their taxes than they already do. The NASA budget has been essentially flat for decades. That's why I feel developing technology that vastly reduces cost at all levels of demand is the first step, not actually sending people to Mars with existing technology.
« Last Edit: 06/24/2014 02:32 pm by vulture4 »

Offline QuantumG

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #36 on: 06/24/2014 09:58 pm »
Having spent years running an L-5 chapter at a major university in a major city, I think there are a lot of people in the US who "support" space. They just aren't willing to pay any more for human spaceflight with their taxes than they already do.

Most Americans I've spoken to have said they would love a box on their tax form which allowed them to earmark part of their taxes to go to NASA. Most of them also answer my followup question in the negative: do you think it would make a difference?
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline beancounter

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #37 on: 06/25/2014 03:45 am »
Building a dam or a new Freeway is a 'jobs program' - even if they might actually be needed. A deep space exploration program is probably never needed - just wanted or deemed necessary by people with a bit of future vision like me (and you? Nah - don't think so). The local council where I live has resurfaced the road outside my house for the third time in 4 years - it absolutely did not need it. That is the best definition of a 'jobs program' I've ever seen.

Constellation, Orion/SLS are only 'jobs programs' if they never get built, never go anywhere and never do anything. You have been implying that these sorts of projects are worthless and by extension, probably all manned space efforts - you could put the ISS in that jobs basket too, if you wanted. I put it to you that your participation in this thread and some of your opinions are themselves wastes of time. You have called this thread a fantasy (it probably is - I pretty much said so a few posts back). There: I've said it - some of what you've said is wrong, (did that 'make your day?) even if the spirit of some of it is right. This is the closest to an Ad hominem statement I've made in ages. It seems you don't like manned spaceflight, don't support viable alternatives and don't want any money spent on all this 'fantasy'. It's all too hard - let's give up, boo-hoo. Hell; most of it has all gone away anyway. The enemies of space exploration and the future are chipping away all the time now. Quick - let's all savor this thread before someone hits the Moderator alert button and locks this interesting but ultimately futile thread. Sheesh... :(

Yep the mod's might get into this however IMHO Cx (well that certainly didn't), SLS and Orion will not fly on any 'operational' mission.  These projects are not pushing the technology or developing anything new.  They are extremely expensive and frankly given other alternatives, not worth the expenditures except to provide jobs hence my term 'jobs programs'. 

If jobs are the bottom line and that's what is important then let's just say so and judge on that basis.  Btw I'm not of the same opinion for say the ISS which is doing useful research in a number of areas or by extrapolation other hsf-related efforts.

I believe that projects and programs should be looked at in the context of what they offer going forward, to the advancement of whatever they are being set up to do.  I don't believe that providing jobs for jobs sake is sufficient justification.  JM2CW.
I'm happy for you to disagree and my apologies for the off-topic post.
Cheers.
Beancounter from DownUnder

Offline okan170

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #38 on: 06/25/2014 06:09 pm »
Having spent years running an L-5 chapter at a major university in a major city, I think there are a lot of people in the US who "support" space. They just aren't willing to pay any more for human spaceflight with their taxes than they already do.

Most Americans I've spoken to have said they would love a box on their tax form which allowed them to earmark part of their taxes to go to NASA. Most of them also answer my followup question in the negative: do you think it would make a difference?

I'll echo this sentiment.  I've talked to people in the various different projects I work on, nobody seems to be of the opinion that its a waste of time.  For nationalistic reasons, curiosity, or even people with just a few stars left in their eyes.  In general, I've found most people (though I've talked to mostly people 30 and under) express frustration with what they hear NASA has been reduced to, but thats as far as it goes.  People still think that NASA ended with the Space Shuttle.  People just generally do not know, and until very very recently, a lot of the interesting information has been somewhat inaccessible to the everyday person unfamiliar with how to dig through NASA's website.  Heck, I feel like so many people had no clue what the ISS was until it was in Gravity.   Pointing out the space station in the sky usually got a "We have a space station!?" response.

My own opinion here is that the public may be attracted to novelty.  I know my generation has grown up just expecting the shuttle to be doing its thing forever, not realizing the state of affairs that left it dangerous.  Public interest spikes whenever something new happens, which I suspect may be part of why SpaceX has had such success engaging the public: their work is amazing and easy-to-access online.  I suspect its not that people aren't interested in spaceflight, but rather the public is easily distracted.

During the 60s there was a concentrated effort to get to the Moon landing.  With nationalism and every other year visible achievements being made, it would've been possible to follow.  Its probably seen more as a drama than an actual endeavor.  Once we got to the Moon… well there are about a  hundred reasons why public interest dropped, but I do wonder how much of it was that all people, with their short attention spans, saw was more people trundling around.

The big "public" spaceflight events have usually been novel and unusual.  People like watching history happen, but are less enthused about the aftermath.  For 30 years we had a shuttle going round and round in people's minds, with only a few breaks for things like the Hubble rescue.  We've been seeing some increase in awareness through the internet, little things that help.  Being able to casually watch the ISS livestream or Cdr. Hadfield's videos bring the nifty parts of spaceflight (that most of us here are already aware of), or watching the live stream of Curiosity landing… these are little things that help bring it together, as easily as one would read a newspaper in the past.  Lifting the veil on what can be an incredibly intimidating thing to understand is a slow process, but its nice to see some progress being made.

Now if only this affected congress.

Offline CommercialSpaceFan

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Re: $500 Billion Annual Budget for Space Exploration
« Reply #39 on: 06/29/2014 09:06 pm »
The nation could do a lot in pursuing space endeavors for less than the stated $500B, and as many have stated jumping to $500B would probably result in substantial waste.  Personally I think that while government spending can and should enable broader use of space for the betterment of human kind, one should strive to develop a sustainable space economy that isn’t solely reliant on the government.   With this in mind, I’d suggest a few areas of pursuit:

Technology development.  This is the corner stone of what made Apollo such a long term economic success.  Increasing technology development by a factor of 10 or more (~$10B) could be implemented rapidly with long lasting benefits.  Academia and industry research is currently starved for funding limiting the pace of progress.  Everything from space computers, solar power, and extraction of raw materials to human studies are needed.  One area that I think would really benefit our expansion into space in the long term is plasma physics focusing on fusion or even anti-mater propulsion.

LEO industry.  Development of industrial uses of space, from pharmaceuticals to crystals and more remains an elusive dream.  Frequent, reliable access and greater opportunity may allow us to realize the potential.

Solar Power Satellites.  Power from space also remains science fiction.  But with terrestrial energy demand growing and environmental issues mounting a concerted push may finally open this opportunity.  Starting with Earth launched capability and transitioning to space manufacturing, SPS may help with Earths energy demand.

Space based and lunar surface based infrastructure can help enable the transition of these potential space industries from expensive novelties to affordable mandatory enhancements to the global economy.

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