Author Topic: All Solid Motor Antares  (Read 42255 times)

Offline Lobo

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Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #80 on: 01/21/2016 06:10 pm »

The reason for Antares/Wallops was for cost/convenience. Paying for CCAFS/VAFB is one significant stopper.


This could depend on if NASA would like to "entice" another user for the VAB and 39B, as SLS will be only launching at a low rate and they've been wanting to make KSC a real spaceport.  If NASA gave them a sweetheart deal, OrbATK may be ok with operating under the overhead/headaches of NASA.  The VAB and SRB processing facilities at KSC could obviously handle large segments based on SLS boosters just fine.  There's a couple of old MLP's available to be repurposed to handle the LV. 

It might not be a show stopper if OrbATK gets some sweet deal.  Which is possible as NASA seems like they would like the optics of more than just an occasional SLS launch going out of KSC. (not counting 39A).

Didn't SpaceX essentially get the lease for 39A for "free", just to take over maintenance and operation of it so it wouldn't be sitting there rotting?

Offline Lars-J

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Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #81 on: 01/21/2016 06:17 pm »

The reason for Antares/Wallops was for cost/convenience. Paying for CCAFS/VAFB is one significant stopper.


This could depend on if NASA would like to "entice" another user for the VAB and 39B, as SLS will be only launching at a low rate and they've been wanting to make KSC a real spaceport.  If NASA gave them a sweetheart deal, OrbATK may be ok with operating under the overhead/headaches of NASA.  The VAB and SRB processing facilities at KSC could obviously handle large segments based on SLS boosters just fine.  There's a couple of old MLP's available to be repurposed to handle the LV. 

It might not be a show stopper if OrbATK gets some sweet deal.  Which is possible as NASA seems like they would like the optics of more than just an occasional SLS launch going out of KSC. (not counting 39A).

Didn't SpaceX essentially get the lease for 39A for "free", just to take over maintenance and operation of it so it wouldn't be sitting there rotting?

Yes but nobody wants to be in the position to share a pad with SLS. Both for scheduling reasons and the extra overhead of building a launch mount that works with an MLP and pad.

But then again OrbATK is used to getting "freebies" from NASA to entice them to make deals. The whole integration facility at Wallops was built for Orbital by NASA. Perhaps NASA is willing to modify the MLP and VAB for free - but that's the only way I could see it happening.

Offline Space Ghost 1962

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Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #82 on: 01/21/2016 07:02 pm »
... sell it to ULA's board.

ULA stops working on Vulcan booster. Keeps working on ACES if they want. Atlas survives on a diet of Commercial Crew/Cargo flights, NASA science, and a few commercial payloads.

OrbATK's latest version of "The Stick" becomes reality and replaces Delta IV. Flies a few times a year as "assured access." NASA and DOD are happy because it keeps the solid motor lines running.

Ugly and awkward but unarguable in its brutal simplicity.

Makes a kind of sense. Especially with the SRB contracts OA has just won with ULA taking  away from AJ/R.

Simply answer for when things don't work out either in LRE development/costing/supply - do a solid to replace the LRE need. Then SMART recovery is just used for eventual ACES, and you just dispose of the first stage cheaply.

All that remains would be how does the SC side factor in between LMT/BA/OA going forward. Since BA is laying off those that do low end sats like OA does, and LMT never did them, perhaps no so big a deal to envision.

A much more believable future than BO or AR at the moment. Kudos.

Offline edkyle99

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Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #83 on: 01/21/2016 09:51 pm »
Here's a notional EELV Medium and Heavy solution, using solid motors that are roughly the size of a 1.5-segment RSRM from ATK's motor catalog. 

Assume for this exercise a 193.5 tonne gross "common booster stage" (CBS), which may or may not comprise one or two "common booster segments".  Assume the following.

CBS has a 0.92 propellant mass fraction. 

CBS has 263 sec average ISP as a sea-level launch stage.

CBS has 290 sec ISP as an air-start stage.

A BE3U-powered LH2/LOX upper stage with a 440 sec ISP and a 0.90 propellant mass fraction.  It would be loaded with around 50 tonnes propellant.

Payload to 11,750 m/s for the in-line vehicle (essentially GTO x 28 deg) would be 6.5 metric tons (tonnes) for a GLOW of 451 tonnes.

A Heavy would be boosted by two side-mounted motors with the center motors both air-lit.  It could do 6 tonnes to GEO for a GLOW of about 870 tonnes. 

The rockets might stand 56 meters (182 feet) plus or minus, generally the same height as Atlas 5 and shorter than Falcon 9 or Delta 4 Heavy.  20 meters shorter than Ares 1.

 - Ed Kyle

 
« Last Edit: 01/21/2016 09:59 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline Space Ghost 1962

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Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #84 on: 01/21/2016 10:45 pm »
Possibly also a medium plus with two strap-ons??

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #85 on: 01/21/2016 11:26 pm »
Here's a notional EELV Medium and Heavy solution, using solid motors that are roughly the size of a 1.5-segment RSRM from ATK's motor catalog. 

Assume for this exercise a 193.5 tonne gross "common booster stage" (CBS), which may or may not comprise one or two "common booster segments".  Assume the following.

CBS has a 0.92 propellant mass fraction. 

CBS has 263 sec average ISP as a sea-level launch stage.

CBS has 290 sec ISP as an air-start stage.

A BE3U-powered LH2/LOX upper stage with a 440 sec ISP and a 0.90 propellant mass fraction.  It would be loaded with around 50 tonnes propellant.

Payload to 11,750 m/s for the in-line vehicle (essentially GTO x 28 deg) would be 6.5 metric tons (tonnes) for a GLOW of 451 tonnes.

A Heavy would be boosted by two side-mounted motors with the center motors both air-lit.  It could do 6 tonnes to GEO for a GLOW of about 870 tonnes. 

The rockets might stand 56 meters (182 feet) plus or minus, generally the same height as Atlas 5 and shorter than Falcon 9 or Delta 4 Heavy.  20 meters shorter than Ares 1.

 - Ed Kyle

 
I think you are correct with core, but strap ons will be GEM63XL, assume 6.

Offline edkyle99

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Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #86 on: 01/22/2016 03:29 am »
I think you are correct with core, but strap ons will be GEM63XL, assume 6.
Working "backward" from such a Heavy, assuming 50 tonnes gross for each strap-on motor, and assuming that the second and first stages are different, gives a Medium (no strap-on motors) with a 372 tonne first stage, a 240 tonne second stage, and a 56 tonne LH2 third stage (GLOW = 679 tonnes) that can put 9.6 tonnes to GTO or 3.9 tonnes to GEO. 

If eight strap-on motors are assumed for the Heavy, the Medium stages weigh 271/240/56 tonnes (GLOW = 574 tonnes) and the payload is 8.2 tonnes GTO, 3 tonnes GEO. 

I'm not sure that eight GEM63XLs would fit around a 146 inch diameter motor.  Still, even this "Medium" would be a biggie, with something like Atlas 541 capability.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 01/22/2016 03:46 am by edkyle99 »

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #87 on: 01/22/2016 05:34 am »
Here's some information on the heavy configuration.

http://aviationweek.com/space/orbital-atk-unveils-plan-next-gen-eelv-competitor

"The Orbital ATK concept would incorporate a Common Booster Segment main stage made up of solid motor cores delivering the “liftoff thrust of the RD-180,” Pieczynski says. “To get heavy lift we add one or two more solid cores to the booster and we could strap them on, like the Atlas V,” he adds. The upper-stage would be powered by the BE-3U/EN, a modified version of Blue Origin’s baseline 110,000-lb. thrust liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen engine."

I'm not sure how they would add one solid core, if its the same size as the booster.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Hauerg

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Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #88 on: 01/22/2016 05:39 am »
As long as the thrust can be vectored sufficiently, it might work. But still look weird.

Offline HIP2BSQRE

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Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #89 on: 01/22/2016 05:44 am »
Where is the demand for this rocket???  Build it and they will come???

Offline HIP2BSQRE

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Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #90 on: 01/22/2016 05:45 am »
What do people think the price will be for this rocket???

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #91 on: 01/22/2016 05:49 am »
Around $100M, like pretty much every other rocket.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Oli

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Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #92 on: 01/22/2016 06:38 am »
Here's a notional EELV Medium and Heavy solution, using solid motors that are roughly the size of a 1.5-segment RSRM from ATK's motor catalog. 

Assume for this exercise a 193.5 tonne gross "common booster stage" (CBS), which may or may not comprise one or two "common booster segments".  Assume the following.

CBS has a 0.92 propellant mass fraction. 

CBS has 263 sec average ISP as a sea-level launch stage.

CBS has 290 sec ISP as an air-start stage.

A BE3U-powered LH2/LOX upper stage with a 440 sec ISP and a 0.90 propellant mass fraction.  It would be loaded with around 50 tonnes propellant.

Payload to 11,750 m/s for the in-line vehicle (essentially GTO x 28 deg) would be 6.5 metric tons (tonnes) for a GLOW of 451 tonnes.

A Heavy would be boosted by two side-mounted motors with the center motors both air-lit.  It could do 6 tonnes to GEO for a GLOW of about 870 tonnes. 

The rockets might stand 56 meters (182 feet) plus or minus, generally the same height as Atlas 5 and shorter than Falcon 9 or Delta 4 Heavy.  20 meters shorter than Ares 1.

 - Ed Kyle

Ah, 4 stages for the heavy.

Is 11.75km/s the total delta v for the medium version? I don't quite get to 6.5t with the given specs.
« Last Edit: 01/22/2016 06:38 am by Oli »

Offline ArbitraryConstant

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Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #93 on: 01/22/2016 07:39 am »
It's amazing the renaissance in launch vehicles Blue Origin's LRE technology has triggered.

Where is the demand for this rocket???  Build it and they will come???
My understanding is Orbital ATK's solids technology tends to do well in relatively low launch rates. So maybe they only get a few launches per year but they only need a few. In the upcoming US govt launch drought ULA's cost structure may be a disadvantage.

Until now a credible hydrogen upper bore the cost of RL-10 or developing something else, the BE-3U is huge for opportunities like this.

Offline edkyle99

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Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #94 on: 01/22/2016 01:27 pm »
Where is the demand for this rocket???  Build it and they will come???
Perhaps Orbital ATK thinks it can compete in a future without Delta 4 Heavy and Atlas 5.  Vulcan is not a given, and the Falcon 9 family has so far only demonstrated Proton-class reliability.

 - Ed Kyle   
« Last Edit: 01/22/2016 01:36 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline edkyle99

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Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #95 on: 01/22/2016 01:55 pm »
Ah, 4 stages for the heavy.

Is 11.75km/s the total delta v for the medium version? I don't quite get to 6.5t with the given specs.
Yes.  I may have "rounded" the numbers presented.  My spreadsheet numbers were as follows for the Medium.

S1  178.0/193.5 tonnes  ISPavg= 263  Delta-v=1298.9 m/s
S2  178.0/193.5 tonnes  ISPavg= 290  Delta-v=3434.6 m/s
S3  48.8/55.2 tonnes  ISP=440  Delta-v = 7022.3 m/s
Total Delta-v = 11755.8 m/s

I have a 2.5 tonne fairing during the first stage burn.

All wild guesswork, of course!

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 01/22/2016 01:58 pm by edkyle99 »

Online abaddon

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Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #96 on: 01/22/2016 02:19 pm »
Where is the demand for this rocket???  Build it and they will come???
ATK has a history of pushing rockets nobody wanted.  The Orbital side is the one that has provided launch services on rockets it developed (Taurus, Pegasus, Antares).  This smells a lot more like ATK than Orbital to me.

In the meantime, OrbitalATK gets development money, and some of the technology being worked on will doubtless benefit their business supplying other launch providers with boosters.
« Last Edit: 01/22/2016 02:20 pm by abaddon »

Offline Oli

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Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #97 on: 01/22/2016 02:35 pm »
Ah, 4 stages for the heavy.

Is 11.75km/s the total delta v for the medium version? I don't quite get to 6.5t with the given specs.
Yes.  I may have "rounded" the numbers presented.  My spreadsheet numbers were as follows for the Medium.

S1  178.0/193.5 tonnes  ISPavg= 263  Delta-v=1298.9 m/s
S2  178.0/193.5 tonnes  ISPavg= 290  Delta-v=3434.6 m/s
S3  48.8/55.2 tonnes  ISP=440  Delta-v = 7022.3 m/s
Total Delta-v = 11755.8 m/s

I have a 2.5 tonne fairing during the first stage burn.

All wild guesswork, of course!

 - Ed Kyle

Hmm...gives me 5.51t to GTO...

Offline edkyle99

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Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #98 on: 01/22/2016 04:03 pm »
Ah, 4 stages for the heavy.

Is 11.75km/s the total delta v for the medium version? I don't quite get to 6.5t with the given specs.
Yes.  I may have "rounded" the numbers presented.  My spreadsheet numbers were as follows for the Medium.

S1  178.0/193.5 tonnes  ISPavg= 263  Delta-v=1298.9 m/s
S2  178.0/193.5 tonnes  ISPavg= 290  Delta-v=3434.6 m/s
S3  48.8/55.2 tonnes  ISP=440  Delta-v = 7022.3 m/s
Total Delta-v = 11755.8 m/s

I have a 2.5 tonne fairing during the first stage burn.

All wild guesswork, of course!

 - Ed Kyle

Hmm...gives me 5.51t to GTO...
Step 1 initial/final mass is 452.2/273.26 tonnes
Step 2 is 255.2/76.26 tonnes
Step 3 is 60.7/11.92 tonnes

Used propellant given, so no residuals to add.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 01/22/2016 04:05 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: All Solid Motor Antares
« Reply #99 on: 01/22/2016 07:34 pm »
Great work Ed, do you have estimate of Heavy LEO payload. I was think of it lifting fuel for ULA distributed lift.

 Distributed lift would be easier sell if more than one LV provider was benefitting, plus launches can be days apart not weeks.

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