Author Topic: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects  (Read 26363 times)

Offline 2552

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http://spacenews.com/civil/110204-atk-bullish-its-heavy-lift-rocket-prospects.html

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“If the program is executed the way it has been planned, and the way Congress has laid out the authorization for execution of NASA’s plan, it should be a fairly smooth transition” from ATK’s current work on the Ares rocket, which has been cancelled by NASA, to work on the future heavy-lift rocket, ATK Chief Executive Mark W. DeYoung said in a Feb. 3 conference call with investors. “The view we have -- that ATK will play a critical role … in these future vehicles –- continues to solidify as time goes on. ATK’s position for next-generation NASA vehicles continues to improve.”

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DeYoung said that in addition to working with Congress to assure an ATK role in the heavy-lift rocket, the company is positioning itself with NASA for future commercial space-launch business including commercial crew transport.

“We submitted proposals in response to [NASA’s] Commercial Crew Development competition and plan to announce more details on an affordable and capable solution … in the near future,” DeYoung said.

Offline robertross

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #1 on: 02/05/2011 01:03 am »
http://spacenews.com/civil/110204-atk-bullish-its-heavy-lift-rocket-prospects.html

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DeYoung said that in addition to working with Congress to assure an ATK role in the heavy-lift rocket, the company is positioning itself with NASA for future commercial space-launch business including commercial crew transport.

“We submitted proposals in response to [NASA’s] Commercial Crew Development competition and plan to announce more details on an affordable and capable solution … in the near future,” DeYoung said.

Well we now know what the CCD news was about  ;)

And there was little doubt about ATK trying to keep that foot in the door at NASA.

Offline fotoguzzi

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #2 on: 02/09/2011 11:49 pm »
http://spacenews.com/civil/110204-atk-bullish-its-heavy-lift-rocket-prospects.html

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DeYoung said that in addition to working with Congress to assure an ATK role in the heavy-lift rocket, the company is positioning itself with NASA for future commercial space-launch business including commercial crew transport.

“We submitted proposals in response to [NASA’s] Commercial Crew Development competition and plan to announce more details on an affordable and capable solution … in the near future,” DeYoung said.

Well we now know what the CCD news was about  ;)

And there was little doubt about ATK trying to keep that foot in the door at NASA.

Ares I without an Orion, apparently?

http://satellite.tmcnet.com/topics/satellite/articles/143167-atk-astrium-unveil-liberty-nasa-commercial-manned-space.htm

(Now I find that this proposal has its own large thread:

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=24055.0 )

Modify: add link
« Last Edit: 03/07/2011 03:05 am by fotoguzzi »
My other rocket is a DIRECT Project 2

Offline Patchouli

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #3 on: 02/10/2011 05:18 am »
I think an HLV is a given politically speaking but the uncertainty here is will ATK have a big part in it.

Offline docmordrid

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #4 on: 03/03/2011 03:43 am »
Three letters: EPA, and what their upcoming perchlorate regularions will do to ATK's cost structure.

The whole push for EPA to regulate perchlorates was groundwater contamination, which will probably affect most of the production cycle. Without detailed knowledge of how far up & down the chain EPA will go with those regs determining ATK's costs will be near impossible.

Also keep in mind that the current crew at EPA has a particularly activist bent, and that flavor enviro activists were the ones pushing for perchlorate regs from page one.
« Last Edit: 03/03/2011 03:47 am by docmordrid »
DM

Offline Far Reach

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #5 on: 03/03/2011 03:46 am »
They basically got into an investor conference line and quoted from it. Bet ATK won't be happy about that. That's like them rifling through their garbage for bank statements.

Offline nooneofconsequence

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #6 on: 03/03/2011 07:37 am »
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"Faced with congressional protest, NASA in January returned with a rocket design that uses a five-segment solid-rocket motor design that would provide the equivalent of Ares work for ATK. But whether NASA’s new design meets budget and schedule requirements set by Congress remains unclear. "
Translation - NASA didn't want an expensive political legacy but Congress insisted because ATK must continue to be fed. However, it may still not be affordable (surprise!)  so there is a risk it may not actually be funded or meet requirements.

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DeYoung said that in addition to working with Congress to assure an ATK role in the heavy-lift rocket, the company is positioning itself with NASA for future commercial space launch business, including commercial crew transport.

“We submitted proposals in response to [NASA’s] Commercial Crew Development competition and plan to announce more details on an affordable and capable solution … in the near future,” DeYoung said.
So a fall back to the potential failing to meet the Shuttle "revenue hole", a CCDEV proposal can keep the hope of pseudo Ares I alive.

Three letters: EPA, and what their upcoming perchlorate regularions will do to ATK's cost structure.

The whole push for EPA to regulate perchlorates was groundwater contamination, which will probably affect most of the production cycle. Without detailed knowledge of how far up & down the chain EPA will go with those regs determining ATK's costs will be near impossible.

Also keep in mind that the current crew at EPA has a particularly activist bent, and that flavor enviro activists were the ones pushing for perchlorate regs from page one.
Perchlorates induce a host of human illnesses - one of my daughters required treatment for one of them. There are significant EH&S costs for these boosters.

At some point political accommodations won't work because simply we can't afford them anymore. That in the end is the real issue where one can't in law make something cheaper than it actually is in total accumulated costs, no matter the lack of transparency.

Speaking of which:
They basically got into an investor conference line and quoted from it. Bet ATK won't be happy about that. That's like them rifling through their garbage for bank statements.
No sir - everything here should be public so that a valid financial decision can be assessed. Otherwise we get non-competitive behavior in our economy due to croneyism.
"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something" - Plato

Offline gladiator1332

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #7 on: 03/03/2011 01:39 pm »
http://spacenews.com/civil/110204-atk-bullish-its-heavy-lift-rocket-prospects.html

Quote
DeYoung said that in addition to working with Congress to assure an ATK role in the heavy-lift rocket, the company is positioning itself with NASA for future commercial space-launch business including commercial crew transport.

“We submitted proposals in response to [NASA’s] Commercial Crew Development competition and plan to announce more details on an affordable and capable solution … in the near future,” DeYoung said.

Well we now know what the CCD news was about  ;)

And there was little doubt about ATK trying to keep that foot in the door at NASA.

Still hope they are weighed equally against the other commercial proposals and a thumb isn't on the scale, purely because they are ATK. If they are going to compete in the commercial arena, they have to play by the same rules as everyone else.

The fact that they flat out say they have worked with Congress to assure they are included on the HLV tells me they know that there are other more cost effective options out there (See: AJAX). Best way to take out the compeition: make it impossible for the other competitors to compete.

Offline M_Puckett

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #8 on: 03/06/2011 06:50 pm »
Three letters: EPA, and what their upcoming perchlorate regularions will do to ATK's cost structure.

The whole push for EPA to regulate perchlorates was groundwater contamination, which will probably affect most of the production cycle. Without detailed knowledge of how far up & down the chain EPA will go with those regs determining ATK's costs will be near impossible.

Also keep in mind that the current crew at EPA has a particularly activist bent, and that flavor enviro activists were the ones pushing for perchlorate regs from page one.

What EPA is proposing encompasses drinking water standards.  Unless ATK runs a POTW, it does not affect them at all.

I work in the environmental field and have tried to explain this but people keep reading in what they want to.  Just keep ignoring the guy who does this for a living.
« Last Edit: 03/06/2011 06:51 pm by M_Puckett »

Offline kraisee

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #9 on: 03/06/2011 09:03 pm »
I'm just curious...   Who exactly are these "Investors" in the HLV?   Can anyone here, identify who it is that they're talking about?

Is this just buzzword bingo, using the lingo-of-the-day to try to make a government funded project look as though it might be a commercial one, or is there real venture capital involved somewhere?

Ross.
« Last Edit: 03/06/2011 09:05 pm by kraisee »
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Offline yinzer

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #10 on: 03/06/2011 09:21 pm »
I'm just curious...   Who exactly are these "Investors" in the HLV?   Can anyone here, identify who it is that they're talking about?

They are trying to reassure investors in ATK, not investors in the HLV.
California 2008 - taking rights from people and giving rights to chickens.

Offline kraisee

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #11 on: 03/06/2011 09:49 pm »
Fair enough.   I'd sure be nervous if I were an ATK investor.

They're only playing chicken with the government over the use of these 5-seg SRB's.   If ATK blinks first, ATK loses the whole of its large SRB business.   But if the government blinks first, ATK's share price will likely get a short-term boost, however, I'm personally convinced that they are just setting up a program that won't be able to afford any payloads on their nice shiny new launchers -- so the program going that path, is more likely to be canceled within a few years.

So yeah, I can understand the management wanting to say all the right things to their investors.    I just thank gads I'm not one of them!

Ross.
« Last Edit: 03/06/2011 09:56 pm by kraisee »
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
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Offline M_Puckett

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #12 on: 03/07/2011 03:41 am »
I am curious to see if Aerojet makes a serious push with its ASRM and wonder what state of completeion it was in when it was cancelled.  It looks like a much more capable booster.

Would be interesting if they way underbid them.

Offline Downix

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #13 on: 03/07/2011 04:31 am »
I am curious to see if Aerojet makes a serious push with its ASRM and wonder what state of completeion it was in when it was cancelled.  It looks like a much more capable booster.

Would be interesting if they way underbid them.
If you notice, they never exactly say ASRM.  Instead they discuss a liquid booster, or refurbishing the existing RSRB's.
chuck - Toilet paper has no real value? Try living with 5 other adults for 6 months in a can with no toilet paper. Man oh man. Toilet paper would be worth it's weight in gold!

Offline M_Puckett

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #14 on: 03/07/2011 02:09 pm »
Would be nice to actually be able to dual-sorce something like this to keep the vendors on their toes.

Offline spacenut

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #15 on: 03/07/2011 05:04 pm »
ATK also owns Federal cartridge company.  They should sell far more ammo to the Army than to the shooting sports community.  Don't know what precentage of their profits are from Federal than from solid rockets.  Also don't think there are many calls for ICBM's.  Only mass produced are the small strap on's for Delta IV. 

Does anyone know if they have ever made or can make a large monolithic solid, say a 3 or 4 meter diameter other than ICBM's?  If so, it would make handling a lot easier.  Also, could 3 or 4 meter monolithic solids replace the segmented solids on the shuttle tank core?  That might put them back in the game at a lower cost.

Offline Downix

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #16 on: 03/07/2011 05:43 pm »
ATK also owns Federal cartridge company.  They should sell far more ammo to the Army than to the shooting sports community.  Don't know what precentage of their profits are from Federal than from solid rockets.  Also don't think there are many calls for ICBM's.  Only mass produced are the small strap on's for Delta IV. 

Does anyone know if they have ever made or can make a large monolithic solid, say a 3 or 4 meter diameter other than ICBM's?  If so, it would make handling a lot easier.  Also, could 3 or 4 meter monolithic solids replace the segmented solids on the shuttle tank core?  That might put them back in the game at a lower cost.
They haven't, no.  Aerojet has, making up to a 260 inch monolithic solid.  ATK monolithic solids don't have the T/W to do a good job for the tank but it can be done.  By comparison, Aerojet's better T/W on their monolithics makes it more than possible to pull off.

(You'd need 12 ATK monos, 8 Aerojet)
chuck - Toilet paper has no real value? Try living with 5 other adults for 6 months in a can with no toilet paper. Man oh man. Toilet paper would be worth it's weight in gold!

Offline Calphor

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #17 on: 03/08/2011 05:17 am »
I am curious to see if Aerojet makes a serious push with its ASRM and wonder what state of completeion it was in when it was cancelled.  It looks like a much more capable booster.

Would be interesting if they way underbid them.
On paper it was a much more capable booster, however, it was also expensive to manufacture. The nozzle configuration required materials that had never been built on that scale, and have never been built on that scale since. The equipment needed to manufacture those materials was scrapped in the mid-90s after the program was canceled.

Offline Steve_the_Deev

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #18 on: 03/08/2011 06:01 am »
I remember Horace Lamberth was "gung ho" on ASRM.  The only issues we had from a KSC perspective was a facilities issue.  It had to do in the ability of the VAB's overhead cranes to handle the larger mass for stacking operations.  That is something that has stuck in my mind from way back then.  I may be totally off but I believe the crane would have to be replaced (hugely expensive) and other addtl support system costs were some of the factors @KSC leading to its cancellation.  We also talked about the LFBB (Liquid Fly Back Boosters) option.  I was assigned to give Horace, who is a true liquid propulsion man, my thoughts on the LFBB feasibility.  I gotta tell ya my answer was a qualified no sir we don't want to go down that road, not at this point in time.  It would need years of developmental work and then the Fly Back portion was a huge new addition to something we had never tried.  It would be one of those "projects" that you get about a third of the way into it and everyone realizes it is a White Elephant and would never fly, wasting hundreds of millions of dollars.  Bottom line LFBB was way too complicated and expensive a project. 
NASA will keep ATK going because they are needed for their expertise with large pours and large SRMs.

Offline Lampyridae

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Re: ATK Reassures Investors on Heavy-Lift Rocket Prospects
« Reply #19 on: 03/08/2011 07:13 am »
Three letters: EPA, and what their upcoming perchlorate regularions will do to ATK's cost structure.

The whole push for EPA to regulate perchlorates was groundwater contamination, which will probably affect most of the production cycle. Without detailed knowledge of how far up & down the chain EPA will go with those regs determining ATK's costs will be near impossible.

Also keep in mind that the current crew at EPA has a particularly activist bent, and that flavor enviro activists were the ones pushing for perchlorate regs from page one.

What EPA is proposing encompasses drinking water standards.  Unless ATK runs a POTW, it does not affect them at all.

I work in the environmental field and have tried to explain this but people keep reading in what they want to.  Just keep ignoring the guy who does this for a living.

POTW = publicly owned treatment works.

Perchlorate production is not an issue unless ATK shuts down its plants. If it's dumping perchlorate where it can seep into groundwater, it's already creating an explosion hazard. The risk is minimal. Also, SRB exhaust mainly winds up over the sea... given that it burns at 3 300 degrees C, it's safe to assume that a highly unstable compound like this is going to be pretty much nonexistent.

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