Author Topic: Private Moon Landing in the works?  (Read 152806 times)

Offline Warren Platts

Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #180 on: 11/22/2012 09:36 am »
@ Comga: I guess you're right--I stand corrected :D

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Offline Diagoras

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #181 on: 11/22/2012 09:58 am »
And for those who have not happened to notice, China is very much into PLANNING.  It is something that they do very well. 

Yes, the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution were textbook examples of careful and meticulous planning.

Thank you. It's good to see someone shooting down the ridiculous Fu Manchu stereotype that pops up every now and then of some special affinity for long-term planning that is apparently innate to the Chinese. Just talk to someone who lived through the Great Leap Forward, or is being told to build an empty city to please some local party bigwig to get a good perspective on that.
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Offline Chris Bergin

Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #182 on: 11/22/2012 02:05 pm »
Ok folks, back on topic please.
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Offline Nelson Bridwell

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #183 on: 11/22/2012 02:32 pm »
Ok folks, back on topic please.

Actually, I was enjoying all these depictions of Mao still blindly running China and them still living in the stone age.  If only it were true...
If only Apple could build the iPhone 5 here in the USA.

But yes, we digress.

What new leads do we have?

Offline scoops12

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #184 on: 11/22/2012 02:47 pm »
Could I just interrupt all the myriad strands of this thread to say two things?

(1) Private moon landing. WHAHOOOOO!
(2) For the business case, please consult one D. D. Harriman.

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #185 on: 11/22/2012 04:00 pm »
:(That is a reference to Calvin and Hobbes.)

Two points for Gryffindor.

...Mao is no longer running the show...

Putting Mao in charge was yet another example of Chinese prowess at planning.

You're totally confused about cause and effect.  Mao took charge.

Unless I'm totally mistaken, the Chinese have the, surprising by some tellings, capability to learn from their mistakes.  But I digress.

So, in keeping with the C&H motif, who's calling the shots anyhow?
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline Jim Davis

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #186 on: 11/22/2012 05:06 pm »
You're totally confused about cause and effect.  Mao took charge.

You're not suggesting that the Chinese didn't plan for such a contingency , are you?

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #187 on: 11/22/2012 05:09 pm »
The C&H strip so apply represents the normal relationship between NASA and contractors with the "worms" being NASA requirements. A pure commercial venture can choose the NASA "worms" they must eat in order to sell seats to NASA ignoring most of the "worms" that do not impact human safety. They can use the Human Rating requirements being required by NASA on CCP as a guide as to what they would have to meet in order to sell seats to NASA. But they could always write their own requirements and put it to NASA to accept them as well.

Offline go4mars

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #188 on: 11/22/2012 05:22 pm »
Nobody is going to invest private capital in a scheme to land people on the Moon because the Chinese may someday land people on the Moon.
If I were a very large mining company (or conglomerate of mining interests) and I believed that there was an economically highly attractive deposit on the moon (either because I believed in near-term reusable rockets or otherwise), then I might in fact be willing to attempt claiming and mining the deposits, using a small portion of my exploration budget toward a well-defined plan and timeframe.  If I thought that the chance existed for a competitor (China) to get there first, then my motivation to fund development appropriately would be stronger, especially if losing the race held the potential to collapse the value of my current assets and operations. 
There is both a carrot and a stick for the private capital. 
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Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #189 on: 11/22/2012 05:40 pm »
Nobody is going to invest private capital in a scheme to land people on the Moon because the Chinese may someday land people on the Moon.
If I were a very large mining company (or conglomerate of mining interests) and I believed that there was an economically highly attractive deposit on the moon (either because I believed in near-term reusable rockets or otherwise), then I might in fact be willing to attempt claiming and mining the deposits, using a small portion of my exploration budget toward a well-defined plan and timeframe.  If I thought that the chance existed for a competitor (China) to get there first, then my motivation to fund development appropriately would be stronger, especially if losing the race held the potential to collapse the value of my current assets and operations. 
There is both a carrot and a stick for the private capital. 

Atlas V + Morpheus lander + RESOLVE prospector rover
We could probably use that lot to examine part of the lunar surface for $200M to $300M.  Any examples of mining companies spending $300 million on wildcatting?

edit:spelling
« Last Edit: 11/23/2012 11:00 am by A_M_Swallow »

Offline Danderman

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #190 on: 11/22/2012 05:56 pm »
Nobody is going to invest private capital in a scheme to land people on the Moon because the Chinese may someday land people on the Moon.
If I were a very large mining company (or conglomerate of mining interests) and I believed that there was an economically highly attractive deposit on the moon (either because I believed in near-term reusable rockets or otherwise), then I might in fact be willing to attempt claiming and mining the deposits, using a small portion of my exploration budget toward a well-defined plan and timeframe.  If I thought that the chance existed for a competitor (China) to get there first, then my motivation to fund development appropriately would be stronger, especially if losing the race held the potential to collapse the value of my current assets and operations. 
There is both a carrot and a stick for the private capital. 

I gather you have not calculated the cost per ton of moving metal from the surface of the Moon to Earth compared with the price per ton of that metal.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #191 on: 11/22/2012 06:54 pm »
I gather you have not calculated the cost per ton of moving metal from the surface of the Moon to Earth compared with the price per ton of that metal.

The biggest cost driver will be flying the linear accelerator out to the Moon and installing it on the surface.  After that, it will just be electricity generation.  Use aero-capture to drop the chunks into LEO and then have them recovered by LEO-only robot freighters (think of a recoverable Angry Alligator that can close its jaws).

Certainly easier typed than done but the lack of an atmosphere on the Moon can make shooting non g-sensitive masses to Earth a lot easier.  I'm pretty sure there are plenty of studies on this cargo transfer methodology.  The point is that the start-up costs are enormous but the lack of major environmental considerations will mean that, after the mine is working, it will quickly start to undercut mining on Earth's surface.
« Last Edit: 11/22/2012 06:55 pm by Ben the Space Brit »
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Offline guckyfan

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #192 on: 11/22/2012 07:11 pm »
The biggest cost driver will be flying the linear accelerator out to the Moon and installing it on the surface.  After that, it will just be electricity generation.  Use aero-capture to drop the chunks into LEO and then have them recovered by LEO-only robot freighters (think of a recoverable Angry Alligator that can close its jaws).

Assuming that mining can be done for some precious metal and assuming that accelerator does work which are big assumptions.

Why would you have them brake into orbit? Give them a heatshield and let them drop into some desert.

Some kind of heatshield could be made from lunar material.

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/news/heatshieldtestresults.html

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #193 on: 11/22/2012 07:32 pm »
You're totally confused about cause and effect.  Mao took charge.

You're not suggesting that the Chinese didn't plan for such a contingency , are you?

Huh?  All I'm saying is that Mao took charge.  He wasn't given it.  You can't be arguing that since he wasn't immediately assasinated by his countrymen, that he therefore enjoyed universal support.  But let's not digress too much, shall we?
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #194 on: 11/22/2012 07:34 pm »
The C&H strip so apply represents the normal relationship between NASA and contractors with the "worms" being...

Excellent analogy which took me by surprise.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline simonbp

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #195 on: 11/22/2012 09:06 pm »
Assuming that mining can be done for some precious metal and assuming that accelerator does work which are big assumptions.

Honestly, the assumption that economically interesting materials are on the lunar surface is by far the larger one. If they're there, and there is an economic case, someone will find an engineering solution.

But, the lunar surface itself is pretty uninteresting. There is absolutely nowhere that we know were it would be worth it to mine even if the cost to transport to Earth were zero. Mines don't just go to places were minerals exist, but where they are so concentrated that it is profitable to mine them. "Rare-Earth Elements" actually aren't all that rare, it's just the concentrated ores containing them are rare.

None of the processes that create ores on Earth ever worked on the Moon. In fact, the only real processes that ever happened on the Moon were impacts and flood lavas. Most of the Earth is covered in flood lavas (ocean basins), so nothing interesting there. And while natural impacts deliver material, they spread it over a massive area, defeating the point. The iron asteroid that made Meteor Crater spread itself over a huge area, and the largest surviving chunk is about a meter long.

Probably the best case for mining the Moon is to not actually mine the Moon. Rather, it would be find economically valuable asteroids and put them on trajectories that would impact the Moon at extremely slow velocities (<1 km/s; natural impacts are 20-70 km/s). Then you can process the mostly intact asteroid on the lunar surface and send the valuable stuff back to Earth via railgun or whatever.

Offline Danderman

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #196 on: 11/22/2012 09:13 pm »
Let me try this:

If you guys really felt that there were a business case for mining the Moon, I would suggest discussing this in another thread with the purpose of starting your own business. I would love to see your investment documents for your potential funding. You know, those things with numbers that include IRR.

Since we don't know that Golden Spike plans to "mine the Moon", why don't we focus here instead on what data there is about the company.

And please let us not go over Chinese history again.



Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #197 on: 11/22/2012 10:17 pm »
Honestly, the assumption that economically interesting materials are on the lunar surface is by far the larger one. If they're there, and there is an economic case, someone will find an engineering solution.

Pretty much agree, with the additional observation that replicating an Apollo landing, or even building a four to six person base is also a problem awaiting only an engineering solution.

Quote
Probably the best case for mining the Moon is to not actually mine the Moon. Rather, it would be find economically valuable asteroids and put them on trajectories that would impact the Moon at extremely slow velocities ...

Hadn't really heard this suggestion before.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #198 on: 11/22/2012 10:20 pm »
This is a post that I made on this thread that has application to the discussion in this one.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30081.105


Quote
Ok. Here is my quick price per mission estimate for a dual EDS storable propellant using vacuum optimized SuperDracos with one EDS used to refuel the lander and also used as a crasher stage so that the Lander only needs propellant for 2700m/s delta V (500 for terminal landing and 2200 for ascent) ~6mt propellant with a dry weight of 1.5mt. To do the deorbit burn the crasher stage will need ~15mt of propellant. A BEO DragonRider with a 2-2.5mt propulsion module in the trunk to do a TEI burn from LLO.

A regular paying mission involves two FH flights delivering two fully fueled EDS placed into LEO. This is followed by a F9 BEO DragonRider flight. To do the TLI and TOI to place the second EDS with 21mt of propellant and the 9mt of DragonRider +trunk+TEI ppropulsion module up to 78mt of propellant is used leaving total weight at LLO of 31mt(21mt propellant+9mt Dragon+1mt for EDS dry weight).

The development program would be as follows. An unmanned test flight of BEO DragonRider and the EDS involving 1 FH and the F9 BEO DragonRider – cost $275M. The placement of the reusable lander into LLO + a small Bigelow habitat- cost $1,000M. A manned demo flight to the surface – cost $440M.

The development of the habitat the BEO DragonRider and EDS are done by a provider and is not directly borne by the Lander operator but is paid off by purchases of DragonRider and EDS and the habitat. The Lander development + the test flights are amortized over 10 paying customer flights. The per flight amortized development charge per mission would be $170M.

This would make a per mission price to put 4 persons to LLO with 2 of those to the surface at $800M.

There is nothing exotic in the tech for this solution and uses existing, soon to exist, or extensible of those technologies being developed.



The reason I am referencing this is that for a private business case you need some realistic ballpark per mission price estimates. (Not cost because it must also include a profit.)


At $800M per mission price where the lander operator purchases transport to and from LLO from SpaceX for example and also a EDS that is used as tanker and crasher stage to enable the lander to reach and return from the surface it keeps them focused on the development of the primary item that will make the business work and that is the manned lander. The operator would pay SpaceX $440M per mission for the 2 EDS and crew transport to and return from LLO. They would also rent space in a Bigelow habitat at LLO. In all they could make in profit as much as $185M per mission (they are a reseller of the SpaceX transportation and they make a profit on that as well since without them SpaceX would not be doing as much cis-lunar flight business making the lander operator a mission integrator).

Note mission here is being used as a placeholder for a single from Earth to Lunar surface and back transportation service to deliver 4 people to LLO and 2 of those to the Lunar surface.

From all the discussions this still seems to be the lowest near term price (2020 timeframe) and technical solution. There are definitely other technical and price solutions out there but many take more technical development time and development money to accomplish.

Engineering truth about the best solution to a problem - KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid).

Offline douglas100

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #199 on: 11/22/2012 10:24 pm »

Pretty much agree, with the additional observation that replicating an Apollo landing, or even building a four to six person base is also a problem awaiting only an engineering solution.

Also awaiting a funding solution.
Douglas Clark

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