Total Members Voted: 302
Voting closed: 01/19/2018 12:22 pm
I think you should make BFR/BFS launches count, even if suborbital, because, you know, I'm sure that Elon has an absurd level of optimism that they will launch a rocket this year that they haven't even finished designing yet.
So if things go well today, and I'm going to touch every form of wood that I can find, we're on track to be double our launch rate of last year, which was a record launch rate for us, and effectively Falcon 9 was the most launched rocket worldwide of 2017.
In the CNBC interview with Gwynne shown today she said SpaceX will do 24 to 28 launches this year, but only about 18 launches next year (due to demand reduction next year).
Dont they have a manifest stretching for years? Is there none of that stuff that could be moved forward?
Looking at the manifest for the rest of the year and guessing which flights could realistically happen, I'm down to around 24 and up to five more that could happen but I don't really expect them to. My current guess would be the bottom of the 24-28 range.
Quote from: gongora on 05/30/2018 06:33 pmLooking at the manifest for the rest of the year and guessing which flights could realistically happen, I'm down to around 24 and up to five more that could happen but I don't really expect them to. My current guess would be the bottom of the 24-28 range.If around 5 flights on the manifest move from 2018 to 2019, then all of a sudden SpaceX's 2019 manifest is as large as 2018's with 24 and ~23 flights. Certainly nothing wrong with that. SpaceX has the extra capacity on the manifest in 2019.
For the period of 8 Aug 2017 to 7 Aug 2018 there have been 23 launches. This is a very solid 2 a month rate. This speaks for 2018 as being 24 +- 2.