Author Topic: The Space Review: How the cislunar econosphere might take shape (larger version)  (Read 13179 times)

Offline Danderman

  • Extreme Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10288
  • Liked: 699
  • Likes Given: 723
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2027/1

Here is an interesting article that discusses a future for space very different from what most people here expect: rather than a government planned expansion, this article depicts space development progressing as does life on Earth.  The author describes future expansion, starting from the emerging suborbital markets through lunar development.

If you read and understand this article, then most of the discussion here about SLS and Orion becomes irrelevant.
« Last Edit: 02/21/2012 03:04 pm by Danderman »

Offline JohnFornaro

  • Not an expert
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10974
  • Delta-t is an important metric.
  • Planet Eaarth
    • Design / Program Associates
  • Liked: 1257
  • Likes Given: 724
Excellent article.  don't see why SLS and Orion don't pertain
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline Chris Bergin


If you read and understand this article, then most of the discussion here about SLS and Orion becomes irrelevant.


An op-ed isn't going to change that, thank goodness.
Support NSF via L2 -- Help improve NSF -- Site Rules/Feedback/Updates
**Not a L2 member? Whitelist this forum in your adblocker to support the site and ensure full functionality.**

Offline Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 39270
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 25240
  • Likes Given: 12115

If you read and understand this article, then most of the discussion here about SLS and Orion becomes irrelevant.


An op-ed isn't going to change that, thank goodness.
Wouldn't SLS/Orion (or Dragon/Falcon9 or CST100/EELV, etc) becoming irrelevant in the future be an incredibly good thing (as unrealistic as it is that a private-only cis-lunar initiative would work)?

The author doesn't seem to realize, though, that Universities get their funding for space research from NASA (or sometimes NSF).

And the author's suggestion that there's any sort of business case at all in "filling vacuum spheres" with vacuum from space for return to Earth is kind of telling, IMHO.

EDIT: Yeah, this op-ed is pretty ridiculous. Not really worth reading, IMO. There are some points that may have some merit, but it's pretty scattershot.
« Last Edit: 02/21/2012 04:40 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Danderman

  • Extreme Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10288
  • Liked: 699
  • Likes Given: 723
Its difficult for those who see space as a large, government planned program to internalize the reality that space is a place just like anywhere else. The point of the article is that the real future of space development is pretty much going to be like development of anything else, like the real estate market here on Earth. There isn't going to be a significant government dominated program down the road in space, any more than there is a big government dominated real estate program.

This isn't to say that government space will wither and die, but rather that it would be a relatively minor part in the development of cislunar space, and mostly a supporting role, much as the government today supports real estate and housing development as a backer of mortgages. Please don't take this last analogy to mean that I think the government is going to offer mortgages in space.

To those thinking of space as a program, and not a place, a future dominated by the private sector indeed would seem scatter-shot and chaotic, much like the Internet, with a handful of big players and many small ones. It is truly an uncomfortable vision, from that point of view.

Offline Chris Bergin

I really shouldn't post when I'm multitasking ;D It's a very interesting read, a bit over my head to be honest, but my main point is they could have gold plated Battlestars and someone would have an alternate plan.

And I think I was a bit annoyed by "SLS and Orion becomes irrelevant" - but out of context annoyed ;D
Support NSF via L2 -- Help improve NSF -- Site Rules/Feedback/Updates
**Not a L2 member? Whitelist this forum in your adblocker to support the site and ensure full functionality.**

Offline Bill White

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2018
  • Chicago area
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 0
From the article:

Quote
EML1 is the killer app of cislunar space, to the extent one might exist.

Well, I agree with that.
EML architectures should be seen as ratchet opportunities

Offline Bill White

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2018
  • Chicago area
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 0
I really shouldn't post when I'm multitasking ;D It's a very interesting read, a bit over my head to be honest, but my main point is they could have gold plated Battlestars and someone would have an alternate plan.

And I think I was a bit annoyed by "SLS and Orion becomes irrelevant" - but out of context annoyed ;D

Actually, SLS is ideal to support an EML architecture. IMHO.
EML architectures should be seen as ratchet opportunities

Offline Blackjax

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 509
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 138
And I think I was a bit annoyed by "SLS and Orion becomes irrelevant" - but out of context annoyed ;D

Are you annoyed because they are using the term 'becomes' as though it is a potential event in the future rather than something which already happened, or because it is such an obvious thing that it doesn't need to be restated yet again?

;) ;) :P ;D

Kidding aside, I think it is a great article.  The Apollo generation keeps trying to return to the Apollo model for space.  This model is heavily predicated on the idea of 'inspiration' either as the driver for a major MISSION to a DESTINATION or as primary effect of a major MISSION to a DESTINATION.  This may be an idea that resonates with the Apollo generation, but it doesn't with a lot of us who came after Apollo.  To us Apollo is history, and what we've learned from history is that inspiration based programs don't lead anywhere, they're castles built on sand.  I don't want a program, I want permanent human activity in space of all kinds.  Funding the next incremental step outward by meeting a current market need, may not be exciting or inspirational, but unlike the grand visions the Apollo generation keeps trying to sell us in the form of things like Constellation and Mars Direct, it actually works in the real world.  It can be frustratingly slow, but it is not built on empty promises of 'Great Accomplishments' we will achieve in space someday which will be broken later on.  Small sustainable steps punctuated by occasional risk taking by those who can afford it is what will get us there (assuming it is even possible to get there).

Offline Chris Bergin

No, I was annoyed by the comment in the opening post, obviously - given that's what I quoted.
Support NSF via L2 -- Help improve NSF -- Site Rules/Feedback/Updates
**Not a L2 member? Whitelist this forum in your adblocker to support the site and ensure full functionality.**

Offline Blackjax

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 509
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 138
No, I was annoyed by the comment in the opening post, obviously - given that's what I quoted.

You sir, are crushing my dream that I may one day have a career in satire.

Online Lee Jay

  • Elite Veteran
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8566
  • Liked: 3603
  • Likes Given: 327
Its difficult for those who see space as a large, government planned program to internalize the reality that space is a place just like anywhere else.

It's a place with a far larger barrier to entry than the Atlantic ocean was a barrier to the Americas.  That's the problem.

I find it difficult to imagine a world in which a sustainable business case can be made for taking large numbers of people into space on the thrust from chemical rockets.  It's just too high a barrier.

Offline Lunadyne

  • Member
  • Posts: 56
  • EML-1. the crossroads of cislunar space
  • Liked: 50
  • Likes Given: 0

The author doesn't seem to realize, though, that Universities get their funding for space research from NASA (or sometimes NSF).

And the author's suggestion that there's any sort of business case at all in "filling vacuum spheres" with vacuum from space for return to Earth is kind of telling, IMHO.

EDIT: Yeah, this op-ed is pretty ridiculous. Not really worth reading, IMO. There are some points that may have some merit, but it's pretty scattershot.

I'd forgotten this thread was over here.  To address Robotbeat's points:

1) The author does realize that universities receive the bulk (well nigh the entirety) of their funding for space research from NASA (or NSF, or a handful of others).  Does that mean that that is the way it must be?  No effort to find other funding should be made?  There can be only the status quo?

2) I actually did some research for the vacuum spheres example, from how they would be manufactured, to arranging the flight, to determining the market-entry price point.  The main barriers to entry were all NASA-related.  Given that Pet Rocks were once a thing, I'd be a bit cautious of casually dismissing creative new products coming to market.

3) As to the ridiculousness of the article, I would note that it was cited in an article in le Monde diplomatique and an EU White Paper, it served as the seed-germ for a NASA study, and even ULA got in on the act.  Compare my original cislunar roadmap from the 2012 article:



with ULA's roadmap from 2015:



I do note Chris's later caveats, and would be interested in what parts you felt were over your head.  The article was not a 'plan', but rather an exploration of how things might develop in cislunar space when the emphasis is placed on human activity and how that can grow an economy (i.e. lead to greater prosperity).
« Last Edit: 10/18/2016 04:20 pm by Lunadyne »

Online Steven Pietrobon

  • Member
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 39218
  • Adelaide, Australia
    • Steven Pietrobon's Space Archive
  • Liked: 32738
  • Likes Given: 8195
To those thinking of space as a program, and not a place, a future dominated by the private sector indeed would seem scatter-shot and chaotic, much like the Internet, with a handful of big players and many small ones. It is truly an uncomfortable vision, from that point of view.

Space is already dominated by the private sector.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline savuporo

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5152
  • Liked: 1002
  • Likes Given: 342
Space is already dominated by the private sector.
And has been for a long time now. I find it strange that these future space economy promoting space cadet pieces almost never touch or seem to recognize what the actual real world space economy looks like
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline Space Ghost 1962

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2780
  • Whatcha gonna do when the Ghost zaps you?
  • Liked: 2925
  • Likes Given: 2247
Given that Pet Rocks were once a thing, I'd be a bit cautious of casually dismissing creative new products coming to market.

Happen to actually live where Mr Pet Rock does. I'd met him before it, and then was invited by the town's council to be present for a event honoring local inventors where he appeared as well (hold a number of patents myself). He recognized me and shot over. Almost apologized for the "pet rock" - he's a marketing and sales guy who did it as a bad joke to another group of marketing guys.

Not a good example of "creative new products".

With space your should consider "creative new services" first.

Offline Lunadyne

  • Member
  • Posts: 56
  • EML-1. the crossroads of cislunar space
  • Liked: 50
  • Likes Given: 0
I find it strange that these future space economy promoting space cadet pieces almost never touch or seem to recognize what the actual real world space economy looks like

Please define "space cadet".  Are you referring specifically to myself?  Or to the NASA Marshall space cadets that wrote the "Germinating the 2050 Cis-Lunar Econosphere" white paper?
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20150006953
Or perhaps the space cadets at ULA and their "Business Case for Space" (from which the above graphic is pulled)?
http://www.ulalaunch.com/uploads/docs/Published_Papers/Commercial_Space/Business_Case_ForSpace_AIAASpace_2015.pdf
Or is it just anyone who has a positive vision of what the space industry could be?

Also, please define "actual real world space economy".  I guess we must not have covered any "actual real world space economy" at ISU, only imaginary fake space economy.  You are clearly so wise and knowledgeable, smoked reindeer, so please enlighten me!

Not a good example of "creative new products".

With space your should consider "creative new services" first.

Sure, I guess that Pet Rocks had been around forever and there was no novelty to them.  What an enormous product failure they were.

I realize it's safer to not offer any tangible examples for folks to criticize, but do you have any proposed "creative new services" for space that we can beat up on?  I did offer some examples in the Cislunar Econosphere article, as well as my earlier EML-1 article, but I'm curious as to what you propose for "creative new services".

Offline jstrout

  • Member
  • Posts: 59
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 61
I found this article interesting, but already a little outdated.  I'd love to see an updated version taking into account the latest developments and the current state of things.

Offline savuporo

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5152
  • Liked: 1002
  • Likes Given: 342
Please define "space cadet".  Are you referring specifically to myself?
No, I'm referring to a certain observable patterns with many people very enthusiastic about space, where they are vastly more interested in concepts rooted more in science fiction than real world spaceflight activities, state of the art and accomplishments. Pick or write a definition that you feel sits better

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/space_cadet
http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/SpaceCadet

Quote
Or is it just anyone who has a positive vision of what the space industry could be?
Also, please define "actual real world space economy".  I guess we must not have covered any "actual real world space economy" at ISU, only imaginary fake space economy.

I don't have to define it, it's defined by hundreds of thousands of highly skilled people working in companies and organizations worldwide in an industry that generates around 350 billion dollars of revenue every year and serves billions of customers. I also have a fairly positive vision of it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_industry

To share the excitement, here is a recent thread. I'd be more than happy to hear more insights from knowledgeable people how they think the identified trends will evolve over next year, five years or twenty.

Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline savuporo

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5152
  • Liked: 1002
  • Likes Given: 342
I realize it's safer to not offer any tangible examples for folks to criticize, but do you have any proposed "creative new services" for space that we can beat up on?  I did offer some examples in the Cislunar Econosphere article, as well as my earlier EML-1 article, but I'm curious as to what you propose for "creative new services".
Planet Labs, Terra Bella/SkyBox, Spire Global, to name a few. Recently joined by hard pivot of Planetary Resources, and others.

I'll add OneWeb as well, as they are signing contracts, bending metal and generating revenue in other parts of the industry.
« Last Edit: 10/21/2016 05:31 am by savuporo »
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1