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SLS / Orion / Beyond-LEO HSF - Constellation => Missions To Mars (HSF) => Topic started by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 11:31 am

Title: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 11:31 am
Pre-announcement thread:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31160.0

Live coverage of their presser:

The Inspiration Mars press conference will be available online at 1 p.m. ET tomorrow. Visit www.inspirationmars.org and register for the webcast by clicking “watch live.” Please note that the registration link is not yet activated but will be available for registration by tomorrow. Feel free to share this information with your readers and viewers.

Good webcast link:
http://www.visualwebcaster.com/event.asp?id=92584

Presser:

MEDIA ADVISORY
The Planets are Aligning for a Once-in-a-Generation Space Journey

Join us for a special press conference at The National Press Club

WHAT:

The Inspiration Mars Foundation, a newly formed nonprofit organization led by American space traveler and entrepreneur Dennis Tito, invites you to attend a press conference detailing its plans to take advantage of a unique window of opportunity to launch an historic journey to Mars and back in 501 days, starting in January 2018. This “Mission for America” will generate new knowledge, experience and momentum for the next great era of space exploration. It is intended to encourage all Americans to believe again, in doing the hard things that make our nation great, while inspiring youth through Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) education and motivation.

The Inspiration Mars Foundation is committed to accelerating America’s human exploration of space as a critical catalyst for future growth, national prosperity, new knowledge and global leadership.

WHO:               

·         Miles O’Brien, moderator

·         Dennis Tito, chairman of Inspiration Mars Foundation and the first private space traveler

·         Taber MacCallum, chief executive officer and chief technology officer of Paragon Space Development Corporation and crew member for two-year mission in Biosphere 2

·         Dr. Jonathan Clark, associate professor of Neurology and Space Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine and space medicine advisor for the National Space Biomedical Research Institute

·         Jane Poynter, president and chairwoman of Paragon Space Development Corporation and crew member for two-year mission in Biosphere 2

WHEN:

Wednesday, Feb. 27, 2013 at 1 p.m.

·         45-minute press conference, followed by Q&A period

WHERE:

The National Press Club

529 14th St NW, 13th floor

Washington D.C.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 04:44 pm
15 mins to the event.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 04:56 pm
About to start.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 04:58 pm
Off we go.

"Welcome to Mars"
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:00 pm
This is not about the expensive landing schemes. This is a 100 mile altitude flyby.

There are no showstoppers to this.

Tito has a record of thinking big and not taking no for an answer.

Why Mars? It's always captivated us.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 05:00 pm
Mars is O'Brien's second favourite planet. ;)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:02 pm
Cites MSL etc....but claims HSF is the big deal.

"Humans need to go there. We may miss the chance to be a multi-planetary species."

The goal is to inspire a sea change from talk into action.

Jan 2018 launch date is dictated by orbital mechanics. Notes anniversaries like Apollo 8. Planets are aligning.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 05:02 pm
Anniversary of both Magellan and Apollo 8.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:03 pm
Intros and overviews of the panel.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                               

Feb. 27, 2013

 

 

“Inspiration Mars” to pursue human mission to the Red Planet in 2018

New nonprofit foundation to move U.S. farther and faster toward its destiny as

world leader in technical innovation, science, exploration and discovery

 

WASHINGTON, D.C. – A unique window of opportunity for humankind will open in January 2018, and the Inspiration Mars Foundation intends to seize it, announcing plans today to pursue a challenging manned mission to Mars and back. This historic 501-day journey around the Red Planet is made possible by a rare planetary alignment that occurs five years from now.

Two professional crew members – one man, one woman – flying as private citizens will embark on what is known as a “fast, free-return” mission, passing within 100 miles of Mars before swinging back and safely returning to Earth. Target launch date is Jan. 5, 2018.

 

Officials with the Inspiration Mars Foundation, a new nonprofit organization founded by private space traveler Dennis Tito, announced their plans to pursue the audacious to provide a platform for unprecedented science, engineering and education opportunities, while reaching out to American youth to expand their visions of their own futures in space exploration.

 

“When nations boldly follow opportunities, rooted in curiosity and guided by technological innovation, they grow, prosper, learn and lead. And this is what makes a nation great,” said Tito, chairman of the Inspiration Mars Foundation.

 

“Human exploration of space is a critical catalyst for our future growth and prosperity,” he added. “This is ‘A Mission for America’ that will generate knowledge, experience and momentum for the next great era of space exploration. It will encourage and embolden all Americans to believe, again, in doing the hard things that make our nation great, and inspire the next generation of explorers to pursue their destiny through STEM education.”

 

The mission will be built around proven, existing space transportation systems and technologies derived from industry, NASA and the International Space Station that can be available in time to support the launch date.

 

“Investments in human space exploration technologies and operations by NASA and the space industry are converging at the right time to make this mission achievable,” said Taber MacCallum, chief technology officer for Inspiration Mars. MacCallum is also CEO/CTO of Paragon Space Development Corporation, and was a member of the Biosphere 2 Design, Development, Test & Operations team, and a crew member in the first two-year mission.

 

The mission system will consist of a modified capsule launched out of Earth orbit using a single propulsive maneuver to achieve the Mars trajectory. An inflatable habitat module will be deployed after launch and detached prior to re-entry. Closed-loop life support and operational components will be located inside the vehicle, designed for simplicity and “hands-on” maintenance and repair.

 

Foundation officials are in talks with several U.S. commercial aerospace companies about prospective launch and crew vehicles and systems.

 

“Mars presents a challenging, but attainable goal for advancing human space exploration and knowledge, and as a result, we are committed to undertaking this mission,” MacCallum said. “Experts have reviewed the risks, rewards and aggressive schedule, finding that existing technologies and systems only need to be properly integrated, tested and prepared for flight.”

 

Tito explained that the “beauty of this mission is its simplicity.” The flyby architecture lowers risk, with no critical propulsive maneuvers after leaving Earth vicinity, no entry into the Mars atmosphere, no rendezvous and docking, and represents the shortest duration roundtrip mission to Mars. The 2018 launch opportunity also coincides with the 11-year solar minimum providing the lowest solar radiation exposure. 

 

The foundation serves as the primary contractor for the mission, overseeing planning, training, systems development, processing and operations. Several companies and individuals recognized for their excellence in various aspects of human spaceflight will manage key program elements. Subcontractors include Applied Defense Solutions, Paragon Space Development Corp. (Paragon), and Dr. Jonathan Clark with the Center for Space Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine. In addition, we have formed a partnership with NASA via a reimbursable Space Act Agreement between Paragon and the Ames Research Center (Ames).

 

“With the support of NASA and an evolving team of industry partners, we intend to do everything possible to take advantage of this unique opportunity for America,” Tito said. “We are engaging the best minds in industry, government and academia to develop and integrate the space flight systems and to design innovative research, education and outreach programs for the mission. This low-cost, collaborative, philanthropic approach to tackling this dynamic challenge will showcase U.S. innovation at its best and benefit all Americans in a variety of ways.”

 

Those benefits include cutting-edge research and potential discoveries. The mission validates decades of taxpayer investment in NASA technology, and strengthens the nation’s position as a leader in exploration. It also serves as a vehicle for inspiring youth through science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) education and motivation. The foundation is already collaborating with nationally prominent educators, organizations and space experts to design a compelling educational K-12 program. 

 

The Space Act Agreement between Paragon and Ames is to conduct thermal protection system and technology testing and evaluation. Foundation officials will also seek to tap into NASA’s knowledge, experience and technologies to fine-tune and/or develop some of the more challenging elements of this mission, including environmental controls, radiation protection, and human health and productivity plans.

 

Tito said the Inspiration Mars mission aligns perfectly with emerging U.S. space priorities and programs, and will contribute valuable research to accelerate next-generation systems and their missions.

 

“The mission will help create public awareness, enthusiasm and momentum for a long-term commitment and vision for space exploration beyond low-Earth orbit … all the way to Mars,” Tito said. “Clearly, there are risks associated with the mission, as is true of every space exploration mission. But these are exactly the kinds of risks that America should be willing to take in order to advance our knowledge, experience and position as a world leader. We believe the risks and challenges we have identified are well within the scope of our collective experience and can be overcome to achieve a safe and successful mission.”

 

The Inspiration Mars mission stems from a year-long effort to develop a series of similar fast, free-return trips to the Moon and back. After this fortuitous alignment of planets in 2018, the opportunity will not present itself again until 2031.

 

Inspiration Mars will be funded primarily through private, charitable donations.  The foundation will also seek out government partners that can provide unique expertise, access to infrastructure and other technical assistance as part of a public-private partnership. 

 

For more information, visit www.InspirationMars.org.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:04 pm
Two person crew. Will be a man and a woman.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:04 pm
Tito says he won't be going.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:05 pm
Presser is because they are releasing the study he worked on.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:08 pm
Notes the current situation with the space program.

Significant progress with the robotic program, which he worked on.

Not the same progress with HSF, especially deep space. Not been beyond the moon. It's time to put an end to that lapse.

Notes the 2030s timeline from NASA. Tito doesn't want to wait that long.

Need to do something innovative.

Need to bridge the gap between ISS and SLS. Can't make the jump very easily. A lot we need to learn. We need to have missions inbetween to gain experience.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:09 pm
Notes the need to "experience" Mars before landing on Mars.

Notes his interest in trajectory work. Wondered about Mars fly by, as he's a fly by guy.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:09 pm
Notes this first slide as the first thing he saw about flybys.

Four dots at the bottom show the Mars ops for flybys.

Lower right hand corner is the 2018 op. Next op is 2031.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:11 pm
Let's go for the 2018 opportunity.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:12 pm
It's a pretty easy mission. Difficult because it's a space mission.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:14 pm
Assembled a team for the key four areas of the mission. The feasibility study will be released on Sunday.

Non profit organization (Inspiration Mars). "I will come out a lot poorer at the end of this mission".
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/27/2013 05:14 pm
Going to burn the midnight oil... Signed a Space Act Agreement with NASA (Ames) for reentry, etc.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 02/27/2013 05:16 pm
Is it possible to sign a Space Act agreement with a NASA center without Headquarters approving it?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:16 pm
We're not going to get this done working 8-5. We're going to have to burn the midnight oil.

Signed a SAA with NASA Ames on re-entry. Also looking into life sciences.

Funding is a real challenge. But I am in the financial field and I'm very excited about going out there and raising the money. Don't think it will be a difficult problem.

Speaks a bit like Golden Spike on the revenue streams.

Tito commits for the next two years of funding requirements.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:18 pm
Can't come up with a number, but the cost will be much, much lower than what you'd expect for a Mars mission. It will be more like a LEO mission. Media rights will be phenomenal. Talks about Dr Phil (?).

Did mention existing vehicles without naming them....but noted they don't need another Saturn V.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:19 pm
No way to abort when heading to Mars, is the lead in to the life support element from Paragon.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Jason1701 on 02/27/2013 05:20 pm
Talks about Dr Phil (?).

In the context of putting feuding individuals on the 501-day mission so as to get them back together. ;)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 05:20 pm
Speaks a bit like Golden Spike on the revenue streams.

Tito commits for the next two years of funding requirements.

The second part makes the first part a lot more believable.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JimO on 02/27/2013 05:20 pm
My live feed is jerking on and off, nearly unlistenable.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:21 pm
Challenges include: 1.4 years. No chance of an abort. 14.2 kms re-entry. Half the sunlight at Mars. Twice the sunlight on the fly past Venus.

The study noted a Lewis and Clark mission. No need to follow NASA guidelines.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 05:21 pm
A Lewis and Clark mission to Mars.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Jason1701 on 02/27/2013 05:22 pm
A Lewis and Clark mission to Mars.

If they take that literally, it will narrow the astronaut candidates substantially. :P
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 05:23 pm
A Lewis and Clark mission to Mars.
If they take that literally, it will narrow the astronaut candidates substantially. :P

I expect every astronaut at Nasa is currently searching the phone number of Tito.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Hodapp on 02/27/2013 05:24 pm
This is the kind of dreaming and boldness that makes America great! We need more of this kind of dreaming...of course...the hard part proper funding and action!
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:24 pm
Not deemed safe to have just one crewmember. Going with man and a woman.

Cites ISS tech on life support. (ECLSS no doubt).

Water for the crew is a big challenge, again a hat tip to the above.

Everything is designed to be serviced inside the vehicle.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 05:24 pm
Everything servicable from inside, like a submarine. Wet lab with upper stage.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:25 pm
Notes the inflatable is a concept. Also looking at a rigid structure.

1200 Cubic Feet Volume. Half the volume is for the food and spares. 600 cubic feet of living space.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Jason1701 on 02/27/2013 05:26 pm
I like their spacecraft illustration. It looks like a cartoon of a number of different vehicles.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 05:26 pm
Falcon Heavy is an existence proof, several options.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 05:27 pm
Notes the inflatable is a concept. Also looking at a rigid structure.

1200 Cubic Feet Volume. Half the volume is for the food and spares. 600 cubic feet of living space.

600 cubic feet = 17 cubic meters.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Malderi on 02/27/2013 05:27 pm
Really looking forward to seeing what their LEO stack looks like. What's the usual TMI mass fraction for probes been? Are they just going to stack up a couple Centaurs and light 'em off?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:27 pm
Notes SpaceX for the proof study. Have not talked to SpaceX.

Some options require two launches. Variety of options being looked at.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:28 pm
Was impressed with NASA's "can do" spirit.

Said they will reimburse NASA for any work required.

Says the experience with NASA was "fabulous". He's also tickled pink about the team they have involved at Paragon. This bloke is fun! ;D
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 02/27/2013 05:30 pm
What is the mean time between failure for the existing water purification system on the ISS?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:31 pm
Notes the increasing amount of new vehicles in dev (Commercial Crew). Really are multiple options for what we need.

SLS and Orion are required for Mars for the scientists. But every 15 years WE can fly by Mars.

Says he got an e-mail from a six year old who sent 10 bucks as a donation (ATK Liberty promo video redux). "This is my Apollo". (Six years old?? Bit bright for a six year old.)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Eer on 02/27/2013 05:32 pm
What is the mean time between failure for the existing water purification system on the ISS?

Well - that and mean time to repair ...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:32 pm
Dr Clark up next.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JimO on 02/27/2013 05:32 pm
I prepared some quotes for some press interviews this morning, as 'talking points', so if anybody needs to use them, feel free:

:
 
 Somebody has to 'push the envelope' to see where they bump into a hard wall, since NASA has become disinclined to take such risks. And perhaps it's too much to expect NASA to be willing to accept the likely price of failure.
 
 I'm proud that there are people who really understand the risks
and the consequences who are willing to step up and take a swing at it.
 
 It took us years to realize, after the euphoria of Apollo, that we still had no clues at all how tough the manned interplanetary mission would be.
 
 Space station experience brought those lessons home, and then offered
the venue to practice solutions to them.
 
 Going directly to Mars right after Apollo would have been suicide.
 
 But now it's merely extremely risky -- about as dangerous as Apollo was
when Kennedy committed to that goal in 1961.
 
 To a largely unrecognized degree, NASA's quiet methodical plodding on the ISS has finally flight-tested and verified the life support hardware for such a long flight with no rest or repair stops.
 
 And we shouldn't overlook that the Russians have verified
the human factor with their own bold 500 day ground simulation.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 05:33 pm
Clark talking about free falling from Mars upper atmosphere?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:35 pm
Representing the academia element.

"This is going to be the Apollo 8 moment for the next generation."

Have to keep the crew alive for just shy of 1.5 years in space. But we have a lot to go on via experience. We know crews can survive micro g via long duration.

Going to have to contend with radiation.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:36 pm
Notes some medical ideas about reducing radiation problems.

"It's a concern, but it's not a showstopper".

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/27/2013 05:36 pm
They're contending with radiation potentially with free-radical scavengers. (Such a good idea, it's the ideal solution to the radiation challenge, IMHO. Unfortunately it seems it's overlooked compared to the more sexy over-engineer-the-spacecraft approach...)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:37 pm
More on keeping the crew healty, from Jane Pointer. Oooh, she's English! :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:40 pm
"It's a really long road trip, in an RV and you can't get out for a year and a half."

3000 pounds of dehydrated food. "Hmmmmmmmmm, yummy!" (she said that, honest!).

They'll have to do hours of exercise per day. And they will have to be able to maintain the life support system.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:42 pm
We must have robustness in our life support system.

"Once they've left planet Earth, they ain't getting off that bus".

Now on to mental health. Longest stay in space is 438 days. Seen the completion of Mars 500. Also notes Antarctica bases.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 02/27/2013 05:42 pm
3000 pounds of dehydrated food. "Hmmmmmmmmm, yummy!" (she said that, honest!).

Just need to loop that soundbite.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:43 pm
Worked on Biosphere 2. Depression set in during the third quarter. Crew hardly spoke to each other. Could have been dangerous.

Will be offering the crew mental health support, as well as a lot of training before the mission.

Crew selection process will be rigorous.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:44 pm
She's gone off on a tangent now. Oh, she's talking about her great marriage with her husband and thus they will need a strong couple.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: mr. mark on 02/27/2013 05:46 pm
she seems slightly eccentric.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ugordan on 02/27/2013 05:46 pm
Couldn't have they used an... *actual* image of Mars instead of that cartoonish globe?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:47 pm
"Man and a woman is important because it represents humanity. And it represents our children, because they will see themselves reflected in that crew. It's all about our children."

Imagine a 13 year old girl, sending a tweet about a woman on near Mars.

This is getting really fluffy.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 05:48 pm
Couldn't have they used an... *actual* image of Mars instead of that cartoonish globe?

Yeah, that's pretty goofy.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 02/27/2013 05:49 pm
she seems slightly eccentric.
I can't help but suspect that anyone who was cooped up with 'warring factions' for 500 days would be slightly eccentric.

Besides, if she's a Brit??? They're *ALL* eccentric!!! (Hi Chris!)

I have to wonder how effective remote psychological support will be, especially when the comm lag is at the highest...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:49 pm
Miles seems to suggest they will do a Golden Spike-style fundraiser.

"Hope that 10 bucks will be the first of many donations".
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 05:50 pm
But will somebody think of the children! (http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ThinkOfTheChildren)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:51 pm
"This is so exciting, I can hardly believe it".
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JimO on 02/27/2013 05:51 pm
I think her comments were central to the practicality of the mission -- not diversional at all.  The crew must maintain functionability under stresses known and unknown.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Drkskywxlt on 02/27/2013 05:51 pm
I 2nd the posts about the quality of the graphics.  Maybe it's shallow, but the quality of the graphics gives an immediate impression of credibility (or lack thereof) to the public.  Besides the one good figure of the possible ship with inflatable habitat, the rest of the figures frankly suck. 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Eer on 02/27/2013 05:52 pm
Miles seems to suggest they will do a Golden Spike-style fundraiser.

"Hope that 10 bucks will be the first of many donations".

And... if 10 million kids give $10 each ... we'll have the seed money to fund the next couple of years...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:52 pm
Challenger Learning Center to get involved it seems.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 05:52 pm
I 2nd the posts about the quality of the graphics.  Maybe it's shallow, but the quality of the graphics gives an immediate impression of credibility (or lack thereof) to the public.  Besides the one good figure of the possible ship with inflatable habitat, the rest of the figures frankly suck. 

If it's about the graphics, NASA would be already with humans at Pluto.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: aquanaut99 on 02/27/2013 05:52 pm
Yes, I agree. The quality of the graphics shown so far have not done anything to increase the credibility of this venture. Quite to the contrary.

Sorry, but my reaction is now: "move along, nothing to see here".
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Hodapp on 02/27/2013 05:52 pm
I think her comments were central to the practicality of the mission -- not diversional at all.  The crew must maintain functionability under stresses known and unknown.

Yeah Astronaut Jerry Linenger's book on his experience on Mir gives a good look at that aspect.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Borklund on 02/27/2013 05:53 pm
I really like the fact that sending a man and a woman is a cornerstone of the mission, to serve as role models for both boys and girls. Good on them!
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ugordan on 02/27/2013 05:54 pm
I 2nd the posts about the quality of the graphics.

Which is ironic since we probably have more global images of Mars than we do of Earth...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JimO on 02/27/2013 05:55 pm
I really like the fact that sending a man and a woman is a cornerstone of the mission, to serve as role models for both boys and girls. Good on them!

I'm not joking -- this is gonna be a BAD political choice for some noisy ideological whiners out there in media land. Wish I WERE joking.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/27/2013 05:55 pm
I 2nd the posts about the quality of the graphics.  Maybe it's shallow, but the quality of the graphics gives an immediate impression of credibility (or lack thereof) to the public.  Besides the one good figure of the possible ship with inflatable habitat, the rest of the figures frankly suck. 

If it's about the graphics, NASA would be already with humans at Pluto.

Agreed; it's whether they can fund and build a spacecraft that lends credibility.  Golden Spike had a great intro video and we all know where that went!
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Drkskywxlt on 02/27/2013 05:55 pm
If it's about the graphics, NASA would be already with humans at Pluto.

No bucks, no buck rodgers.  But most of the public BELIEVES that NASA can get humans to Mars (reality notwithstanding). 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: mr. mark on 02/27/2013 05:56 pm
I have enough inspiration. Let's see some potential engineering. At least a taste of launch vehicles and spacecraft. They said they are using existing technology show us some of it.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:56 pm
"We're in an inspiration gap" Notes good work with MSL etc.. "But what inspires students". "So Mr Tito, I see you as filling the gap, I'm so proud of you".

More fluffy comments, but you can't say a bad word about these ladies. They do fine work.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 02/27/2013 05:56 pm
I really like the fact that sending a man and a woman is a cornerstone of the mission, to serve as role models for both boys and girls. Good on them!

I'm not joking -- this is gonna be a BAD political choice for some noisy ideological whiners out there in media land. Wish I WERE joking.

You mean from the "oh my goodness, this married couple might actually be... having SEX ... up there" angle?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 05:56 pm
IMO greatest news so far is that Tito is going to fund the thing for next couple of years.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Borklund on 02/27/2013 05:56 pm
I really like the fact that sending a man and a woman is a cornerstone of the mission, to serve as role models for both boys and girls. Good on them!

I'm not joking -- this is gonna be a BAD political choice for some noisy ideological whiners out there in media land. Wish I WERE joking.
What are you trying to say with your post?  ???
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JimO on 02/27/2013 05:57 pm
  I have to wonder how effective remote psychological support will be, especially when the comm lag is at the highest... 

Very good point -- AI may be helpful here with a computer-based persona program that can perform real-time hi-fidelity counseling and soothing private conversations.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: SpacexULA on 02/27/2013 05:57 pm
Who is the audience supposed to be for this thing?  The message is all over the place.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 05:57 pm
If it's about the graphics, NASA would be already with humans at Pluto.

No bucks, no buck rodgers.  But most of the public BELIEVES that NASA can get humans to Mars (reality notwithstanding). 

Dennis company has assets of >5 billions, I'm sure he is capable of raising money for this mission.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: OpsAnalyst on 02/27/2013 05:57 pm
Stunned to read some of the posts about the human element.

The core motivation for exploration has never been science, technology, wealth, or even political desire to expand borders.  It has always been about simple human desire.  Saying the primary beneficiaries of the mission are the next generation is putting the shoe on the right foot, and emphasizing all of the human issues and their impacts on the mission is finally speaking the real deal.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JimO on 02/27/2013 05:58 pm
You mean from the "oh my goodness, this married couple might actually be... having SEX ... up there" angle? 

No-o-o-o-o, it would involve from the get-go locking out certain KINDS of sexual activity.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 05:58 pm
Women in Aerospace time.

Q&A coming up next, it would seem. Miles appeared to recognize AP Seth shuffling in his seat.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JimO on 02/27/2013 05:59 pm
Stunned to read some of the posts about the human element.

The core motivation for exploration has never been science, technology, wealth, or even political desire to expand borders.  It has always been about simple human desire.  Saying the primary beneficiaries of the mission are the next generation is putting the shoe on the right foot, and emphasizing all of the human issues and their impacts on the mission is finally speaking the real deal.

I absolutely agree. Absolutely.

You have seen the heart of this project.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Drkskywxlt on 02/27/2013 05:59 pm
Dennis company has assets of >5 billions, I'm sure he is capable of raising money for this mission.

That's very optimistic IMO, but I hope you're right.  Spending a couple hundred bucks on a more professional looking presentation would have lended credibility to that view. 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 05:59 pm
Who is the audience supposed to be for this thing?  The message is all over the place.

People younger than you.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Jason1701 on 02/27/2013 05:59 pm
  I have to wonder how effective remote psychological support will be, especially when the comm lag is at the highest... 

Very good point -- AI may be helpful here with a computer-based persona program that can perform real-time hi-fidelity counseling and soothing private conversations.

Something like Vic Fontaine?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 02/27/2013 05:59 pm
she seems slightly eccentric.

Look up the history of Biosphere 2.

"Eccentric" was their motto.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 02/27/2013 06:00 pm
You mean from the "oh my goodness, this married couple might actually be... having SEX ... up there" angle? 

No-o-o-o-o, it would involve from the get-go locking out certain KINDS of sexual activity.

Oh my ... I forgot about that. crazies on BOTH sides of that divide. Good point.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 06:00 pm
Who is the audience supposed to be for this thing?  The message is all over the place.

Completely all over the place. First 30 mins was very good. Now it's just "Inspire, think of the kids, inspire them!!! KIDS!!!"
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/27/2013 06:00 pm
Q&A coming up next, it would seem. Miles appeared to recognize AP Seth shuffling in his seat.

Bored or desperate to start asking questions?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/27/2013 06:02 pm
Who is the audience supposed to be for this thing?  The message is all over the place.

Completely all over the place. First 30 mins was very good. Now it's just "Inspire, think of the kids, inspire them!!! KIDS!!!"

It's actually very cunning and politically astute.  President Obama has emphasised NASA's role inspiring kids to take up science and engineering.  Mr Tito's team have very overtly hitched their cart to the same horse and are proposing to do it sooner and cheaper.  There could be some politicians stroking their chins thoughtfully as they digest that fact.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 06:02 pm
  I have to wonder how effective remote psychological support will be, especially when the comm lag is at the highest... 

Very good point -- AI may be helpful here with a computer-based persona program that can perform real-time hi-fidelity counseling and soothing private conversations.

Something like Vic Fontaine?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Orbiter on 02/27/2013 06:03 pm
Back on topic now with NASA and Inspiration Mars's mission.

Worth noting the message is out there now - #InspirationMars is the number one trending topic on twitter.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Drkskywxlt on 02/27/2013 06:03 pm
[snark] I wonder if the kids will be inspired when a married couple thinks of innovative ways to murder each other after being locked together in a closet for 500 days [/snark]
 :P
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 06:04 pm
Seth asking questions about test flights etc....and the schedule. He's not pulling punches.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 02/27/2013 06:05 pm
Seth's question sounds more like a rant... he repeated himself a few times. He raises excellent points but still, he's diluting his cred. IMHO
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rcoppola on 02/27/2013 06:05 pm
It's not investment based funding. It's charity based funding. And as such, the human, kids, inspiration angle is the correct way to go.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 06:05 pm
Seth asking questions about test flights etc....and the schedule. He's not pulling punches.

And kinda being a dick about it. You can ask hard questions without being so hostile.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: grakenverb on 02/27/2013 06:05 pm
Wow, no softballs from Seth!
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/27/2013 06:06 pm
[snark] I wonder if the kids will be inspired when a married couple thinks of innovative ways to murder each other after being locked together in a closet for 500 days [/snark]
 :P

That is why you need a two-module spacecraft... with a lockable hatch in between, just in case one or both need a time-out.

Oh, and a remote time-lock on the 'jettison' control on the CRV. ;D
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 06:07 pm
Tito says we have to ask the hard questions to be realist.

Notes Saturn V's first launch and their schedule to the first crewed mission, Apollo 8. Notes Columbia's first launch, never been launched before, was a crewed mission. Notes Delta IV and Atlas V existing, we'll have SLS in 2017....a lot more hardware than before.

(Didn't Apollo cost mega billions??)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MarkWhittington on 02/27/2013 06:07 pm
Jim, with only two crew members there is no way to satisfy the diversity Nazis. So one should not try and if they start belly aching, hold them up to well deserved ridicule.

Mark, I'll hold your coat and stand over                          here, OK?

My list of mockery targets is already pretty full, just google my name on UFO blogs  [grin].

Jim, I know what you mean. My list of enemies is almost endless.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 06:07 pm
"I'm not worried about getting this done. The vehicles are there. I'm more concerned about the technical critical path of Life Support, radiation and reentry."
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 06:09 pm
Did Tito just hint SLS as a launcher option  :o
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 06:10 pm
Dr Clark notes radiation data from MSL. Notes a 3 percent risk of cancer related death (I missed part of that if someone wants to expand). The crew would know the cancer risk. Notes the risk is operational. If they come back with cancer, we can deal with it then.

(Noting some report to mods flying in. Will clean the thread up after the event).
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/27/2013 06:12 pm
Did Tito just hint SLS as a launcher option  :o

That will make certain people I know very angry.

They would be stupid to rule anything out at this stage (including a total bail-out by NASA).  However, in practice, I doubt SLS would be available before 2018.

The Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (iCPS), on the other hand...? Convince NASA to let them use that and it could solve a lot of problems.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: aquanaut99 on 02/27/2013 06:15 pm
Sorry, but I am very unhappy with this whole proposal and announcement. I just can't take this seriously.

I think this will fail inevitably, but before doing so, it will serve to ridiculize the entire concept of a manned Mars mission. The talking heads will have a field day with this. And the goofy cartoony graphics only serves to hand them more ammo.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 06:17 pm
Question about milestones and crew selection.

"Dennis will fund the first two years. We just need to go get it done. Life Support is funded work. Flight config needs to be down as the main strategic element. Industry is tremendously excited."

Will use NASA's experience of picking crews. Will be a large health screening process.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Nickolai on 02/27/2013 06:18 pm
Sorry, but I am very unhappy with this whole proposal and announcement.

This will invariably fail, but before doing so, it will serve to ridiculize the entire concept of a manned Mars mission. The talking heads will have a field day with this. And the goofy cartoony graphics only serves to hand them more ammo.


What specifically makes you unhappy with it? Even if they can't find any funding after breaking Tito's bank account they will have done significant amounts of research in a number of technologies, re-entry, life support, medicine, that will have tangible benefits for all of humanity.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 06:18 pm
Crew will be Americans.

Some international elements. The inflatable is Canadian.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: mr. mark on 02/27/2013 06:19 pm
I'm not counting this out especially if SpaceX gets involved. I can't see SLS as an option and Boeing doesn't seem to be anywhere near taking this on in this timeline. I see this as SpaceX or nothing.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: mduncan36 on 02/27/2013 06:19 pm
Sorry, but I am very unhappy with this whole proposal and announcement.

This will invariably fail, but before doing so, it will serve to ridiculize the entire concept of a manned Mars mission. The talking heads will have a field day with this. And the goofy cartoony graphics only serves to hand them more ammo.


Agreed. Mr. Tito adds some weight but it still strikes me as more concept than anything. I'd love to be wrong but I don't see it going too far.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: jongoff on 02/27/2013 06:20 pm
Some international elements. The inflatable is Canadian.

That's probably a reference to Thin Red Line Aerospace (who did a lot of the soft goods for Bigelow's two Genesis capsules).

http://www.thin-red-line.com/ in case you were wondering.

~Jon
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: aquanaut99 on 02/27/2013 06:21 pm
What specifically makes you unhappy with it? Even if they can't find any funding after breaking Tito's bank account they will have done significant amounts of research in a number of technologies, re-entry, life support, medicine, that will have tangible benefits for all of humanity.

Like I said, the fact that their failure will most likely discredit (even more) a manned Mars effort in the eyes of the public, but also politicians. This will make future efforts, be they gov't or privately funded even harder.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 06:22 pm
Like I said, the fact that their failure will most likely discredit (even more) a manned Mars effort in the eyes of the public, but also politicians. This will make future efforts, be they gov't or privately funded even harder.

How a failure in 2018 makes a Mars mission in 2035 impossible?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 06:24 pm
One journalist picks them up on their examples where it was a blank check for NASA. Question is about funding.

"No expectation of funding from NASA, but we'll sell them data, and we'll charge them as much as we can get away with" - Tito.

Another reference to public fundraising, citing Endeavour's display in California.

Other revenue streams: Media rights. Sponsorship. Industry. "This is a one shot deal".
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: StephenB on 02/27/2013 06:25 pm
I'm a little surprised that they haven't spoken with SpaceX yet. Why not?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 06:25 pm
This will make future efforts, be they gov't or privately funded even harder.
If they manage use the two years to design credible ECLSS etc. for multi-hundred days deep space voyage that will not go into waste. Such thing is going be eventually needed anyway. AIUI they are going to share all the data/results (albeit try to make NASA pay for some).
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Hodapp on 02/27/2013 06:25 pm
What specifically makes you unhappy with it? Even if they can't find any funding after breaking Tito's bank account they will have done significant amounts of research in a number of technologies, re-entry, life support, medicine, that will have tangible benefits for all of humanity.

Like I said, the fact that their failure will most likely discredit (even more) a manned Mars effort in the eyes of the public, but also politicians. This will make future efforts, be they gov't or privately funded even harder.
Any billionaire wanting to do anything with space is good!!  We now have XCOR & Virgin Galatic about to take ppl on suborbital flights...we have slow but continuing progress with NASA, and all the other space agencies...china/india talking about going to the moon...this is all good stuff...it means that overall a slow sea change is taking place in the global community about human exploration of space!  It's just not happening as fast as you would like.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 06:26 pm
Another question about tech, citing F9's wobble on CRS-1's launch....but is mainly asking about radiation impact on the tech (nothing to do with F9).

Dr Clark says the goal is to optimize on how they will deal with issues.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 02/27/2013 06:26 pm
What specifically makes you unhappy with it? Even if they can't find any funding after breaking Tito's bank account they will have done significant amounts of research in a number of technologies, re-entry, life support, medicine, that will have tangible benefits for all of humanity.

Like I said, the fact that their failure will most likely discredit (even more) a manned Mars effort in the eyes of the public, but also politicians. This will make future efforts, be they gov't or privately funded even harder.

Needs to be positioned as "look at all this awesome precursor research we got accomplished" rather than "failure"  IF they can't raise the funds.

I think a 100M[1] downpayment makes it a LOT more plausible that it will get funded and get done than starting with a Kickstarter like some other people...

1 - correction.. 2 years.. "who knows" how much that is, said Mr. Tito. Could be more.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Nickolai on 02/27/2013 06:29 pm
Cygnus as a habitat? ???
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Orbiter on 02/27/2013 06:29 pm
I'm a little surprised that they haven't spoken with SpaceX yet. Why not?

I'm guessing they wan't all their studies done and concepts concluded as well as having the money before going to SpaceX.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 06:30 pm
Another funding question.

Tito says the project is less than that spent on robotic missions to Mars. Using LEO hardware, just out pretty far. About a factor of 100 compared to Apollo.

Several launch vehicles out there, have spoken to several people, but have non-disclosure agreements. But they will be interested in the large amount of exposure.

Tito won't say how much he's committing in cash.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 06:31 pm
I'm a little surprised that they haven't spoken with SpaceX yet. Why not?

Tito said earlier they'd called to confirm the performance figures, but that's all they can talk about. There may be more under an NDA.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 06:31 pm
Golden Spike on a tweet-a-thon:

 So #Bigelowaerospace @ LEO, @GoldenSpikeCo @ Luna, @PlanetaryRsrcs @ the Belt, & #InspirationMars @ red planet. Loving it
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 06:32 pm
Tito won't say how much he's committing in cash.

He appeared almost annoyed by the question, being prepared to pay whatever it takes for the two years.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 06:32 pm
Tito wants America to beat China to Mars.

"I want to do that. Do you want to do that??"

Crowd starts applauding.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Hodapp on 02/27/2013 06:33 pm
Tito wants America to beat China to Mars.

"I want to do that. Do you want to do that??"

Crowd starts applauding.
Yes!!!!!!
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/27/2013 06:33 pm
Tito wants America to beat China to Mars.

"I want to do that. Do you want to do that??"

Crowd starts applauding.

What a bogus question from the WaPo.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/27/2013 06:34 pm
Free return.  I get that.  Thanks for the explanations on the other thread.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 06:35 pm
No docking, inflatable on the nose under fairing??

edit: no docking, no double launch...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Nickolai on 02/27/2013 06:35 pm
Says he wants a 99% reliability before launching. I wonder how he will feel about probability when they reach launch time and they have not achieved that 99%.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JimO on 02/27/2013 06:36 pm
Crew will be Americans.

Some international elements. The inflatable is Canadian.

If there's to be no crew EVA, we'll want a mini-DEXTRE external reacher/inspector/manipulator capability -- shouldn't weigh too much.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 06:36 pm
Death question. Answered by "you have to take a risk" (paraphrased).

Ends with Miles saying "Off to Mars we go".

Well that a bit surreal at times!
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Nickolai on 02/27/2013 06:37 pm
Really hardball Q&A, I think the panel handled all the questions they got pretty well.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 06:37 pm
No docking, inflatable on the nose under fairing??
edit: no docking, no double launch...

Which one you quote?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 06:37 pm
No docking, inflatable on the nose under fairing??

edit: no docking, no double launch...

Well, no docking, no major propulsion after TMI. They are still leaving the option to do docking beforehand.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/27/2013 06:37 pm
I get a better sense of "realism" from this presentation than I have from other similar, recent presentations.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JimO on 02/27/2013 06:38 pm
This will make future efforts, be they gov't or privately funded even harder.
If they manage use the two years to design credible ECLSS etc. for multi-hundred days deep space voyage that will not go into waste. Such thing is going be eventually needed anyway...

ISS has underscored the need for in-space long-duration equipment testing. Ground testing was inadequate, we now know -- thanks to ISS experience.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 06:38 pm
No docking, inflatable on the nose under fairing??
edit: no docking, no double launch...

Which one you quote?
Tito said "no docking required" .. rest is assumptions.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 06:38 pm
I get a better sense of "realism" from this presentation than I have from other similar, recent presentations.

Me too. Damn, I'm not US citizen.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 02/27/2013 06:39 pm
I get a better sense of "realism" from this presentation than I have from other similar, recent presentations.

Me too. Damn, I'm not US citizen.
You can root for it to succeed anyway.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ugordan on 02/27/2013 06:39 pm
Well that a bit surreal at times!

That's saying something. More than 50 years after the start of the space age the notion of a human mission to Mars seems surreal.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 06:39 pm
Tito said "no docking required" .. rest is assumptions.

No docking after mission heading to Mars... he told that one or two launches to build the spacecraft in LEO is in talks.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/27/2013 06:41 pm
No docking, inflatable on the nose under fairing??

edit: no docking, no double launch...

Well, no docking, no major propulsion after TMI. They are still leaving the option to do docking beforehand.

I think a single-launch mission will be the ideal.  However, realistically, only SLS and EELV Phase-II offer that and neither will realistically be available by January 2018.  So, a minimum of two launches will be necessary; I think it might go as high as three.

Tito said "no docking required" .. rest is assumptions.

No docking after mission heading to Mars... he told that one or two launches to build the spacecraft in LEO is in talks.

My prediction: Two D-IVH or FH cargo launches followed by robotic rendezvous of the hab and EDS.  Then a BEO version of either Dragonrider or CST-100 as CRV.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JimO on 02/27/2013 06:44 pm
I get a better sense of "realism" from this presentation than I have from other similar, recent presentations. 

I agree. The people involved have a lot of cred with me.

Now to await the overseas reaction.  Tiangong would make an excellent interplanetary cruise module. Also, Tsander's 'K MAPCY' is an old Russian rally-cry.

This is going to stir things up a LOT, it's not just one far-out group threatening to embarrass the entire concept.

Question: How long has Tiangong-1 been in orbit? [grin]
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 06:45 pm
Well, they were talking about a total spacecraft mass on the order of 10 tonnes, and using the spent TMI stage as the radiation shield, so I think it's just on the borderline of what you could pull off with a single Falcon Heavy. Remember, a lot of the mass of Apollo CSM, Orion, Dragon, CST, etc is hypergol propellant. That is not needed for this mission.

The other obvious option would be the refuelable DCSS that Golden Spike was talking about (so, Delta Heavy + Atlas 552).
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: bad_astra on 02/27/2013 06:46 pm
If it came to a two launch scenario, the bit about Cygnus as the "hab" does make a bit of sense.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 06:46 pm
Well that a bit surreal at times!

That's saying something. More than 50 years after the start of the space age the notion of a human mission to Mars seems surreal.

I'm still wondering about that SIX year old kid who apparently sent them 10 bucks (I wouldn't even know where to post it!) saying he "wants his Apollo moment."

When I was six, I was more interested in driving a toy truck around a sandpit.

That's when the presser turned into this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgQ60DoNRJs
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: grakenverb on 02/27/2013 06:48 pm
I got a good impression from the event.  I like that there is a hard and fast deadline, perhaps the public will be more interested because of it.

And put me down for 2 of Hasbro's BEST THING EVER!
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Phyto on 02/27/2013 06:49 pm
Thanks Chris. for the Tweet up on this. I wanted to watch, but couldn't find the where etc. As it was, I came in after Miles made his opening statements, but got most of the rest. Super! Will the vid be available for download? I'd like to share it with my wife who's out to meetings and shopping.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/27/2013 06:50 pm
Come on, Chris! I know cynicism is a British trait (and is difficult to shake after all the false starts we've seen in the space biz) but try to look at it with fresher eyes! They want something that will have kids talking about space and wanting to be an astronaut again! They want a crew to be humanity's ambassadors to a new place, not just laboratory technicians! Surely that's not a bad thing?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Jim on 02/27/2013 06:53 pm
I expect every astronaut at Nasa is currently searching the phone number of Tito.

Quite the opposite would be reality
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 02/27/2013 06:54 pm
My prediction: Two D-IVH or FH cargo launches followed by robotic rendezvous of the hab and EDS.  Then a BEO version of either Dragonrider or CST-100 as CRV.
I think it would be VERY tough to  bring a two launch mission in under 500M (the number batted around before, and what some robotic mars missions have been at, more or less) and impossible to bring a 3 launch mission in under 500M ...

(that is just based on launcher costs... )
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 06:54 pm
I expect every astronaut at Nasa is currently searching the phone number of Tito.
Quite the opposite would be reality

You have to explain that.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 02/27/2013 06:55 pm
Where do I send my check? Even if they don't meet the launch deadline this is the real deal.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 06:56 pm
Where do I send my check?

The greatest news is that they don't expect you to do that, for at least next two years.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 06:57 pm
Come on, Chris! I know cynicism is a British trait (and is difficult to shake after all the false starts we've seen in the space biz) but try to look at it with fresher eyes! They want something that will have kids talking about space and wanting to be an astronaut again! They want a crew to be humanity's ambassadors to a new place, not just laboratory technicians! Surely that's not a bad thing?

What I am saying is this turned into fluff halfway through, with the "inspiring kids" element. Do you honestly think the majority of kids will give a crap about this?

The only way that'll happen is if Simon Cowell is the Crew Selection judge,  and he selects Justin Bieber and Taylor Swift as the ones to go, launched by a LCC staffed by One Direction.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: bad_astra on 02/27/2013 06:59 pm
Come on, Chris! I know cynicism is a British trait (and is difficult to shake after all the false starts we've seen in the space biz) but try to look at it with fresher eyes! They want something that will have kids talking about space and wanting to be an astronaut again! They want a crew to be humanity's ambassadors to a new place, not just laboratory technicians! Surely that's not a bad thing?

What I am saying is this turned into fluff halfway through, with the "inspiring kids" element. Do you honestly think the majority of kids will give a crap about this?

The only way that'll happen is if Simon Cowell is the Crew Selection judge,  and he selects Justin Bieber and Taylor Swift as the ones to go, launched by a LCC staffed by One Direction.



That idea does sound like a money generator. I did not think about it, but a candidacy selection show would be fascinating for everyone.

They'll have to deal with the sterilization issue at some point of course. Have your Mars Couple spayed or neutered.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 02/27/2013 06:59 pm
I expect every astronaut at Nasa is currently searching the phone number of Tito.


Quite the opposite would be reality

This is not going to be a fund raising extravaganza or lego space architecture... and they have some real serious concepts already outlined, and know they have even more work to do, with a 2 year funding stream, with whatever has been invested so far to bring it to this stage of maturity... I see them as being methodical and professional, not a bunch of amateurs off on an ego kick...

Gramps

edit fixed time line
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: strangequark on 02/27/2013 06:59 pm
What I am saying is this turned into fluff halfway through, with the "inspiring kids" element. Do you honestly think the majority of kids will give a crap about this?

The only way that'll happen is if Simon Cowell is the Crew Selection judge,  and he selects Justin Bieber and Taylor Swift as the ones to go, launched by a LCC staffed by One Direction.



Chris, pretty sure you're gonna give me a nightmare with that image.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/27/2013 07:00 pm
I expect every astronaut at Nasa is currently searching the phone number of Tito.

Quite the opposite would be reality

You have to explain that.

Jim's being his usual hyper-sceptical self and pouring cold water on the idea.  Basically, he's explicitly saying that no NASA astronaut worth the name would touch this mission with a barge pole.

I think he's wrong; then again, I think Jim's... issues with high aspirations in spaceflight are leads him to often be wrong, at least in moral terms.  Certain things are worthwhile for other reasons than the dollar benefit to the global economy or their compatibility with the NASA charter.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 07:00 pm
Do you honestly think the majority of kids will give a crap about this?

Of course they will, you insensitive clod! ;)

Seriously, Jane's wide eyed rant about girls getting exited about Mrs Astronaut tweeting "I see Mars in the windows!?!?!!" resulted audible laughter in here.

edit: maybe the girls will get exited if they shove Justin Bieber in the pod. And the selection process is about who's the lucky(?) girl to accompany him.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ugordan on 02/27/2013 07:01 pm
Do you honestly think the majority of kids will give a crap about this?

Majority of kids? No. Then again, the majority of kids won't grow up into space enthusiasts either way. We are a minority and that won't change.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: bad_astra on 02/27/2013 07:02 pm
The majority of kids haven't been interested in human space exploration, because there hasn't been any since Apollo. That might very well change.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Orbiter on 02/27/2013 07:05 pm
You haven't met many kids if you don't think any of them at one point thought it was cool to go into space. :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: aquanaut99 on 02/27/2013 07:05 pm
What I am saying is this turned into fluff halfway through, with the "inspiring kids" element. Do you honestly think the majority of kids will give a crap about this?

The only way that'll happen is if Simon Cowell is the Crew Selection judge,  and he selects Justin Bieber and Taylor Swift as the ones to go, launched by a LCC staffed by One Direction.



Hmmm, actually this is a brilliant idea!

Stuff Justin Bieber into the capsule, make Simon Cowell run "America's next girl astronaut", let the winner fly with Bieber. And, if they don't come back, well, I'm sure the pop music gerne will survive it... :p

For me, a classic win-win situation... :P
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 02/27/2013 07:06 pm

My prediction: Two D-IVH or FH cargo launches followed by robotic rendezvous of the hab and EDS.  Then a BEO version of either Dragonrider or CST-100 as CRV.

I don't think it will take that much nor do I see this mission being able to afford a ULA launch vehicle.

The Feasibility Analysis seems to reference the FH Second Stage would be the EDS. So in reality, they would only need to dock the hab with the CM/SM/EDS in LEO. I think the hab would be a pretty small payload. Definitely deliverable by a F9 or Antares.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rcoppola on 02/27/2013 07:09 pm

My prediction: Two D-IVH or FH cargo launches followed by robotic rendezvous of the hab and EDS.  Then a BEO version of either Dragonrider or CST-100 as CRV.

I don't think it will take that much nor do I see this mission being able to afford a ULA launch vehicle.

The Feasibility Analysis seems to assume the FH Second Stage would be the EDS. So in reality, they would only need to dock the hab with the CM/SM/EDS in LEO. I think the hab would be a pretty small payload. Definitely deliverable by a F9.


I agree. The question is...will Elon agree?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 02/27/2013 07:11 pm
I know right. If they go with SpaceX can they fit this into their already expanding manifest? I would think Elon would want to "make room" but who knows. Be interested to hear his reaction.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 07:12 pm
Come on, Chris! I know cynicism is a British trait (and is difficult to shake after all the false starts we've seen in the space biz) but try to look at it with fresher eyes! They want something that will have kids talking about space and wanting to be an astronaut again! They want a crew to be humanity's ambassadors to a new place, not just laboratory technicians! Surely that's not a bad thing?

What I am saying is this turned into fluff halfway through, with the "inspiring kids" element. Do you honestly think the majority of kids will give a crap about this?

The only way that'll happen is if Simon Cowell is the Crew Selection judge,  and he selects Justin Bieber and Taylor Swift as the ones to go, launched by a LCC staffed by One Direction.



That idea does sound like a money generator. I did not think about it, but a candidacy selection show would be fascinating for everyone.

They'll have to deal with the sterilization issue at some point of course. Have your Mars Couple spayed or neutered.

The irony is, this is just a small part of this all. This could all fall flat on its face in a few years anyway.

If it does all come together, let's line up the child actors and throw a load of these videos on during American Idol ad breaks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtjfYyf-bII

The flip side is if it does somehow work out and it gets some kids interested, then fair enough, that's a good, good deal. I'm just struggling with that reference to the six year old throwing pocket money at them......ironically because he was already inspired by Apollo! :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 02/27/2013 07:15 pm

My prediction: Two D-IVH or FH cargo launches followed by robotic rendezvous of the hab and EDS.  Then a BEO version of either Dragonrider or CST-100 as CRV.

I don't think it will take that much nor do I see this mission being able to afford a ULA launch vehicle.

The Feasibility Analysis seems to assume the FH Second Stage would be the EDS. So in reality, they would only need to dock the hab with the CM/SM/EDS in LEO. I think the hab would be a pretty small payload. Definitely deliverable by a F9.


I agree. The question is...will Elon agree?

If they meet his price, and if it furthers his goal of getting to Mars... those I think are the two prime criteria...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 07:15 pm
edit: maybe the girls will get exited if they shove Justin Bieber in the pod. And the selection process is about who's the lucky(?) girl to accompany him.

Aye, but there's the rub: Bieber is Canadian.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 02/27/2013 07:18 pm
edit: maybe the girls will get exited if they shove Justin Bieber in the pod. And the selection process is about who's the lucky(?) girl to accompany him.

Aye, but there's the rub: Bieber is Canadian.

Quick Naturalize him, and we may pay you to keep him...  ;D
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 02/27/2013 07:19 pm
I know right. If they go with SpaceX can they fit this into their already expanding manifest? I would think Elon would want to "make room" but who knows. Be interested to hear his reaction.

More importantly, will his customers agree? Imagine it is 2018, spacex did not have a major setback but is about 3 years behind schedule on their manifest of mostly commercial GEO birds. I don't think their customers would accept delaying a GEO comsat launch because of a mars mission.

ULA will certainly not delay the next multi-billion NRO satellite launch for such a mission, even in the unlikely case that mr. tito could afford them.

So unless they place a deposit and book a launch vehicle pretty soon, this won't happen.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: SF Doug on 02/27/2013 07:20 pm
I really like the fact that sending a man and a woman is a cornerstone of the mission, to serve as role models for both boys and girls. Good on them!

I'm not joking -- this is gonna be a BAD political choice for some noisy ideological whiners out there in media land. Wish I WERE joking.

You mean from the "oh my goodness, this married couple might actually be... having SEX ... up there" angle?

Who said they'd be married?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 02/27/2013 07:23 pm
I really like the fact that sending a man and a woman is a cornerstone of the mission, to serve as role models for both boys and girls. Good on them!

I'm not joking -- this is gonna be a BAD political choice for some noisy ideological whiners out there in media land. Wish I WERE joking.


You mean from the "oh my goodness, this married couple might actually be... having SEX ... up there" angle?

Who said they'd be married?

ummmmmm that will generate a lot of "???" PR from the Pulpit....
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Apollo-phill on 02/27/2013 07:23 pm
I've been doing space talks lectures and exhibitions for nearly 50 years now.The latest 10 week space exhibition ended Sunday and a week ago I did a talk about ET Hello ?" - discussing alien life elsewhere in universe.

Guess what?

The exhibition was visits by many many young people .

And during the ET lecture a young lad (7_8 years?) was busy photographing almost every slide I showed!!

So,are young people interested in space ?

You bet they are!  They are the "young versions of us!" They are humans (honest!) and like you and me have that vision of exploring and utilising space to try and understand how "we" fit into the scale of universal things !

Phill Parker
Uk

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MajorBringdown on 02/27/2013 07:24 pm
What I am saying is this turned into fluff halfway through, with the "inspiring kids" element. Do you honestly think the majority of kids will give a crap about this?

The only way that'll happen is if Simon Cowell is the Crew Selection judge,  and he selects Justin Bieber and Taylor Swift as the ones to go, launched by a LCC staffed by One Direction.



Hmmm, actually this is a brilliant idea!

Stuff Justin Bieber into the capsule, make Simon Cowell run "America's next girl astronaut", let the winner fly with Bieber. And, if they don't come back, well, I'm sure the pop music gerne will survive it... :p

For me, a classic win-win situation... :P

Except Justin Bieber is Canadian, so no luck there.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 07:25 pm
But didn't they say the inflatable is from Canada?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 07:26 pm
You bet they are!  They are the "young versions of us!" They are humans (honest!) and like you and me have that vision of exploring and utilising space to try and understand how "we" fit into the scale of universal things !

And in college years they see, that it get's more money for them if they go into financial branches than in STEM ;-)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 07:27 pm
But didn't they say the inflatable is from Canada?

But the Astronauts to be US citizens.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Nickolai on 02/27/2013 07:36 pm
I know right. If they go with SpaceX can they fit this into their already expanding manifest? I would think Elon would want to "make room" but who knows. Be interested to hear his reaction.

More importantly, will his customers agree? Imagine it is 2018, spacex did not have a major setback but is about 3 years behind schedule on their manifest of mostly commercial GEO birds. I don't think their customers would accept delaying a GEO comsat launch because of a mars mission.

ULA will certainly not delay the next multi-billion NRO satellite launch for such a mission, even in the unlikely case that mr. tito could afford them.

So unless they place a deposit and book a launch vehicle pretty soon, this won't happen.

If the customers aren't happy with the schedule they'll go to another provider. But SpaceX is already cheaper than anybody else AFAIK, so I think the balance still ends up being in their (SpaceX's) favor. Plus, Elon has stated publicly that if/when SpaceX goes public he will retain majority control because "the company has certain philosophical goals that are not compatible with market goals."
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Eric Hedman on 02/27/2013 07:38 pm
Does anyone know how long the launch window is in 2018?  I would be worried about a new stack being ready to go on the first attempt with only 5 years available for development.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: mr. mark on 02/27/2013 07:41 pm
If SpaceX passes on this without public explanation, no one will take Elon Musk seriously anymore about Mars. In a sense, He's shot his mouth off and now it's time to put up or shut up. He wanted Mars by 2020 and now he has his opportunity.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 07:44 pm
If SpaceX passes on this without public explanation, no one will take Elon Musk seriously anymore about Mars. In a sense, He's shot his mouth off and now it's time to put up or shut up. He wanted Mars by 2020 and now he has his opportunity.

Silly comment.

Elon wants to land on Mars with SpaceX. Not commit to an external flyby that has X percent chance of even happening.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Space Pete on 02/27/2013 07:49 pm
Of all the grand commercial proposals announced thus far, this for me is perhaps the one that has the greatest chance of actually happening, from both a technical and financial standpoint. I'd say ECLSS is the biggest technical driver.

But as always, I'll get excited once I start seeing flight hardware on a factory floor.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: StephenB on 02/27/2013 07:52 pm
WSJ (Andy Pasztor): First Space Tourist Sets Sights on Mars (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323384604578328631778830030.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

Quote
Industry officials said in recent weeks plans to use a heavy-lift rocket and space capsule supplied by SpaceX, imploded.

Hmm.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: SF Doug on 02/27/2013 07:53 pm
Challenges include: 1.4 years. No chance of an abort. 14.2 kms re-entry. Half the sunlight at Mars. Twice the sunlight on the fly past Venus.

The study noted a Lewis and Clark mission. No need to follow NASA guidelines.

I missed it.  Is this a Mars-Venus flyby, or does the trajectory just go near the orbit of Venus?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 07:54 pm
I missed it.  Is this a Mars-Venus flyby, or does the trajectory just go near the orbit of Venus?

No fly-by... but crossing Venus orbit.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: StephenB on 02/27/2013 07:56 pm
I'd be interested in knowing where Venus would be when its orbit is crossed.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: mr. mark on 02/27/2013 07:56 pm
If SpaceX passes on this without public explanation, no one will take Elon Musk seriously anymore about Mars. In a sense, He's shot his mouth off and now it's time to put up or shut up. He wanted Mars by 2020 and now he has his opportunity.

Silly comment.

Elon wants to land on Mars with SpaceX. Not commit to an external flyby that has X percent chance of even happening.
What is interesting is your comments are totally the opposite of Space Pete. Shows how divisive this presentation has been to space enthusiasts. One says no chance the other says better odds.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 07:57 pm
I'd be interested in knowing where Venus would be when its orbit is crossed.

Check out the slides earlier in the other thread about this mission. Venus should be marked there. No chance to see it for the spacecraft, as I remember to far away.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: aquanaut99 on 02/27/2013 08:03 pm
They're very jaded by now.

They are not the only ones.

I firmly believe these announcements are doing far more harm than good to the already shaky foundation on which human spaceflight is built.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Space Pete on 02/27/2013 08:05 pm
What is interesting is your comments are totally the opposite of Space Pete. Shows how divisive this presentation has been to space enthusiasts. One says no chance the other says better odds.

Just as a follow up, I'm not saying that I think this venture will happen - just that I think it maybe has a better chance of happening than Golden Spike, Planetary Resources, DSI, etc., due to the fact that no dedicated tech has to be developed in addition to that already in use/in development by other programs/ventures, and that they're not looking to make a profit.

I'm still somewhat skeptical of it's actual chances, however - so I agree with Chris on that front. My attitude to these ventures is one of "I'll believe it when I start seeing actual flight hardware being manufactured".
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: StephenB on 02/27/2013 08:09 pm
Nice interview with Titos (http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/02/27/married-to-mars-questions-for-dennis-tito-on-private-martian-trips/)

Quote
We used SpaceX as a reference in our study, but there's a lot we don't know about whether Dragon's going to be selected by NASA as a commercial crew vehicle. Falcon heavy hasn't been launched yet. There are a lot of unknowns. We don't want to put all our eggs in one basket.

Interesting that he started the project for its inspiration value but after working on it grew to appreciate the benefit to life sciences.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/27/2013 08:09 pm
But didn't they say the inflatable is from Canada?

But the Astronauts to be US citizens.

Whatevs.  If he's buyin', he gets to say who's flyin'.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 02/27/2013 08:11 pm
But didn't they say the inflatable is from Canada?

But the Astronauts to be US citizens.

Whatevs.  If he's buyin', he gets to say who's flyin'.

Also makes dealing with ITAR much simpler.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rcoppola on 02/27/2013 08:13 pm
Regardless of what SpaceX would or would not like to do with regards to this concept, I just don't think they'd be ready in time.

Elon is certainly not adverse to risks, but there are realities to how much SX can manage at once. And they have quite a bit on their plate. Keeping in mind they will not risk Commercial Crew Dev since the capsule needed for this Mars Mission is not a one-to-one requirements fit with CCDev. I just don't see them being capable of dual Crewed Dragon development programs.

I'd certainly love it if they could...or would.

However, if CCDev funds are restricted due to budget constraints, I wonder if they could augment that with an infusion from this venture. Things sure are getting confusing / interesting.

 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: mr. mark on 02/27/2013 08:13 pm
As for me, back to hoping for real launch on Friday.... I have to agree with Chris and Space Pete, slim odds to none. I'm hoping all three of us are wrong and this thing actually comes together.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/27/2013 08:16 pm
If SpaceX passes on this without public explanation, no one will take Elon Musk seriously anymore about Mars. In a sense, He's shot his mouth off and now it's time to put up or shut up. He wanted Mars by 2020 and now he has his opportunity.

Not true.  Tito is the guy who's now in the "put up or shut up" spotlite.

I'd be interested in knowing where Venus would be when its orbit is crossed.

Check out the pix that Jon Goff provided on the other thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31160.msg1016197#msg1016197):

https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305154592260374528
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305154592260374528/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305155051947708417
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305155051947708417/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305155492009897986
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305155492009897986/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305156162469376000
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305156162469376000/photo/1
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Eric Hedman on 02/27/2013 08:18 pm
CNN article: http://lightyears.blogs.cnn.com/2013/02/27/group-aims-to-send-2-humans-on-mars-mission-in-2018/?hpt=hp_t1 (http://lightyears.blogs.cnn.com/2013/02/27/group-aims-to-send-2-humans-on-mars-mission-in-2018/?hpt=hp_t1)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 02/27/2013 08:22 pm
Since there are only two people they can use a small capsule for re-entry.  They would have to attach it to something like a Sundancer and a propulsion module.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MP99 on 02/27/2013 08:22 pm
What I am saying is this turned into fluff halfway through, with the "inspiring kids" element. Do you honestly think the majority of kids will give a crap about this?

The only way that'll happen is if Simon Cowell is the Crew Selection judge,  and he selects Justin Bieber and Taylor Swift as the ones to go, launched by a LCC staffed by One Direction.

Hmmm, actually this is a brilliant idea!

Stuff Justin Bieber into the capsule, make Simon Cowell run "America's next girl astronaut", let the winner fly with Bieber. And, if they don't come back, well, I'm sure the pop music gerne will survive it... :p

For me, a classic win-win situation... :P

Ah, the classic "B" ark plan!

Cheers, Martin
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 08:22 pm
If SpaceX passes on this without public explanation, no one will take Elon Musk seriously anymore about Mars. In a sense, He's shot his mouth off and now it's time to put up or shut up. He wanted Mars by 2020 and now he has his opportunity.

Silly comment.

Elon wants to land on Mars with SpaceX. Not commit to an external flyby that has X percent chance of even happening.
What is interesting is your comments are totally the opposite of Space Pete. Shows how divisive this presentation has been to space enthusiasts. One says no chance the other says better odds.


What's that got to do with your strange "no one will take Elon Musk seriously anymore about Mars" comment, that I was addressing?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/27/2013 08:25 pm
Stunned to read some of the posts about the human element.

The core motivation for exploration has never been science, technology, wealth, or even political desire to expand borders.  It has always been about simple human desire.  Saying the primary beneficiaries of the mission are the next generation is putting the shoe on the right foot, and emphasizing all of the human issues and their impacts on the mission is finally speaking the real deal.
Plus eleven. I'm sick of the cynicism so rampant on this site nowadays. This is a serious attempt to do something /awesome/, and it seems possible technically if they can rustle up a billion. It'd be a good thing for humanity, and I want to live in a universe where this sort of thing happens. Instead of arguing about how everything is going to fail, how there's no market, blah blah blah (skepticism is not misplaced in response to naive optimism about things which just simply aren't possible, but that's not what this is)... I'm going to put my money where my mouth is; I'm going to pitch in.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: StephenB on 02/27/2013 08:25 pm
Check out the pix that Jon Goff provided on the other thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31160.msg1016197#msg1016197)
Thanks. The spacecraft would actually be far closer to Earth when it crosses Venus' orbit than to Venus.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/27/2013 08:29 pm
You mean from the "oh my goodness, this married couple might actually be... having SEX ... up there" angle? 

No-o-o-o-o, it would involve from the get-go locking out certain KINDS of sexual activity.
Not necessarily. There are options for even conservative religious folk in this department. I'm sure this will be somewhat discrete at least for a while, so you've got plausible deniability.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Nickolai on 02/27/2013 08:29 pm
Stunned to read some of the posts about the human element.

The core motivation for exploration has never been science, technology, wealth, or even political desire to expand borders.  It has always been about simple human desire.  Saying the primary beneficiaries of the mission are the next generation is putting the shoe on the right foot, and emphasizing all of the human issues and their impacts on the mission is finally speaking the real deal.
Plus eleven. I'm sick of the cynicism so rampant on this site nowadays. This is a serious attempt to do something /awesome/, and it seems possible technically if they can rustle up a billion. It'd be a good thing for humanity, and I want to live in a universe where this sort of thing happens. Instead of arguing about how everything is going to fail, how there's no market, blah blah blah (skepticism is not misplaced in response to naive optimism about things which just simply aren't possible, but that's not what this is)... I'm going to put my money where my mouth is; I'm going to pitch in.

Well said, both of you. It's hard, even painful at times, to dream big when everyone and anyone wants to shut you down as being too bold. We need more of that bold thinking and dreaming :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Orbiter on 02/27/2013 08:36 pm
Big dreams require big scrutiny. There's nothing wrong with taking a critical look at the mission. I imagine that people involved are doing that and then some.

There's a lot of unknowns about this mission, but I'm certain if this mission got the "A-okay" to go, we'll all be for it and watching it with as much tension as the rest of the world will be.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rcoppola on 02/27/2013 08:40 pm
Stunned to read some of the posts about the human element.

The core motivation for exploration has never been science, technology, wealth, or even political desire to expand borders.  It has always been about simple human desire.  Saying the primary beneficiaries of the mission are the next generation is putting the shoe on the right foot, and emphasizing all of the human issues and their impacts on the mission is finally speaking the real deal.
Plus eleven. I'm sick of the cynicism so rampant on this site nowadays. This is a serious attempt to do something /awesome/, and it seems possible technically if they can rustle up a billion. It'd be a good thing for humanity, and I want to live in a universe where this sort of thing happens. Instead of arguing about how everything is going to fail, how there's no market, blah blah blah (skepticism is not misplaced in response to naive optimism about things which just simply aren't possible, but that's not what this is)... I'm going to put my money where my mouth is; I'm going to pitch in.
Plus Twelve

A private US citizen wants to be the impetus of a historic Mars fly-by and offers a couple hundred million of his own money to get it started and the result? I read through 30 posts about Justin Bieber and how kids won't care.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 02/27/2013 08:42 pm
You mean from the "oh my goodness, this married couple might actually be... having SEX ... up there" angle?

Who said they'd be married?
IIRC the news conference said they would be. And tested for compatibility.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/27/2013 08:46 pm
Big dreams require big scrutiny. There's nothing wrong with taking a critical look at the mission. I imagine that people involved are doing that and then some.

There's a lot of unknowns about this mission, but I'm certain if this mission got the "A-okay" to go, we'll all be for it and watching it with as much tension as the rest of the world will be.
What's the big question mark? Funding. If enough people want it to happen and put their money where their mouth is, it can happen. It'll still be risky, but it can happen. That's it. No big market that has to appear out of nowhere, just a billion dollars (to use a round number).

Spreading cynicism is a self-fulfilling prophecy on a large enough scale. The primary thing lacking is the will of enough people.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/27/2013 08:46 pm
WSJ (Andy Pasztor): First Space Tourist Sets Sights on Mars (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323384604578328631778830030.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

Quote
Industry officials said in recent weeks plans to use a heavy-lift rocket and space capsule supplied by SpaceX, imploded.

Hmm.
More shenanigans from Andy Pasztor, to sort of quote QuantumG.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/27/2013 08:49 pm
I have done a fair bit to talking to kids and students about science in general and space in particular and there is considerable interest from them.  This interest is not inconsistent with them following Justin Bieber either.  Kids are extaordinarily catholic in their tastes. 

Yesterday I was interviewed by a student about life support on Mars for about 30 minutes, they wanted to write it up for an assignment.  She is not someone you would remotely think of as a space nut and is very much into popular culture, vampires, vombies, the lot, but she had heard of my interests and thought it cool.


So good on Dennis Tito and Inspiration Mars for doing this.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Martin FL on 02/27/2013 08:54 pm
Stunned to read some of the posts about the human element.

The core motivation for exploration has never been science, technology, wealth, or even political desire to expand borders.  It has always been about simple human desire.  Saying the primary beneficiaries of the mission are the next generation is putting the shoe on the right foot, and emphasizing all of the human issues and their impacts on the mission is finally speaking the real deal.
Plus eleven. I'm sick of the cynicism so rampant on this site nowadays. This is a serious attempt to do something /awesome/, and it seems possible technically if they can rustle up a billion. It'd be a good thing for humanity, and I want to live in a universe where this sort of thing happens. Instead of arguing about how everything is going to fail, how there's no market, blah blah blah (skepticism is not misplaced in response to naive optimism about things which just simply aren't possible, but that's not what this is)... I'm going to put my money where my mouth is; I'm going to pitch in.
Plus Twelve

A private US citizen wants to be the impetus of a historic Mars fly-by and offers a couple hundred million of his own money to get it started and the result? I read through 30 posts about Justin Bieber and how kids won't care.

This thread is over 200 posts long. There are seven posts about how the majority of kids will not care about this, which is clearly a factual statement.

And we've got people like ---- on this thread complaining about negativity, when the majority of his posts are negativity about NASA vehicles. Oh the irony.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/27/2013 08:56 pm
Aimed at no one in particular.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 02/27/2013 09:04 pm
What's the big question mark? Funding. If enough people want it to happen and put their money where their mouth is, it can happen. It'll still be risky, but it can happen. That's it. No big market that has to appear out of nowhere, just a billion dollars (to use a round number).

Spreading cynicism is a self-fulfilling prophecy on a large enough scale. The primary thing lacking is the will of enough people.
I can certainly give an order of magnitude more to this project than I did to DSI... so ya, why not, I'm in too. Once they say where to send the money.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 02/27/2013 09:06 pm
This thread is over 200 posts long. There are seven posts about how the majority of kids will not care about this, which is clearly a factual statement.
Cite please. I don't think it is a "fact" that " the majority of kids will not care about this", unless your crystal ball is way better than mine. Kids get excited about stuff. It's not impossible to envision a scenario where they will get excited about this.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 02/27/2013 09:06 pm
Stunned to read some of the posts about the human element.

The core motivation for exploration has never been science, technology, wealth, or even political desire to expand borders.  It has always been about simple human desire.  Saying the primary beneficiaries of the mission are the next generation is putting the shoe on the right foot, and emphasizing all of the human issues and their impacts on the mission is finally speaking the real deal.
Plus eleven. I'm sick of the cynicism so rampant on this site nowadays. This is a serious attempt to do something /awesome/, and it seems possible technically if they can rustle up a billion. It'd be a good thing for humanity, and I want to live in a universe where this sort of thing happens. Instead of arguing about how everything is going to fail, how there's no market, blah blah blah (skepticism is not misplaced in response to naive optimism about things which just simply aren't possible, but that's not what this is)... I'm going to put my money where my mouth is; I'm going to pitch in.

If I posted that some economists are saying a turn around will happen after 2015, I'd be laughed off this forum and any other forum; If I said that in 5-7 years we will have organic Computer processors, and 3D printing that can print organs as well as your breakfast, and others that build parts for LV and Space Craft, I'd be asked what I'm smoking, or what universe I'm living in...
   But because these people have been working on something for X years, and have finally decided to go public, we are to be skeptical of their claims, even though one of them has been funding it privately up to now, and has committed to funding it for two years (that 2015 date again)

   Sorry, but from my POV, these guys and gals have the right stuff, and know the difficulties before them, with a funded game plan in motion NOW... not when they have their crowd sourced money some time in a hazy future...
   I'll hold my skepticism for a year, to see what comes of this and then make an assessment... In the mean time, I'll keep hoping that make it, as it will make a great 70yrs + 1 day Birthday Present :D
   
   Gramps
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 02/27/2013 09:10 pm

If SpaceX passes on this without public explanation, no one will take Elon Musk seriously anymore about Mars. In a sense, He's shot his mouth off and now it's time to put up or shut up. He wanted Mars by 2020 and now he has his opportunity.

Silly comment.

Elon wants to land on Mars with SpaceX. Not commit to an external flyby that has X percent chance of even happening.
What is interesting is your comments are totally the opposite of Space Pete. Shows how divisive this presentation has been to space enthusiasts. One says no chance the other says better odds.


What's that got to do with your strange "no one will take Elon Musk seriously anymore about Mars" comment, that I was addressing?

I think there's a dichotomy here.

IF Elon comes out and says "no way no how is IM using SpaceX gear" with no comment on why... people won't take him as seriously about his Mars ambitions.

IF Elon comes out with "we looked at this very carefully. And we think we can't do this for the following reason(s)" with reasons such as "they wanted it for free and we can't afford that" or "we do not see success as a possible outcome and here's why" ... people will be fine with his continued ambitions.

See the difference? I think it's serious.

Now, given shitelonsays.com ... he tends not to explain things coherently every single time so who knows if he would do the latter. But if his PR people think hard, they will realise he needs to do that. Or somebody in SpaceX does.

THAT said, he may well say yes, sure and we even will discount the price a little because that's how we roll.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: jongoff on 02/27/2013 09:11 pm
What's the big question mark? Funding. If enough people want it to happen and put their money where their mouth is, it can happen. It'll still be risky, but it can happen. That's it. No big market that has to appear out of nowhere, just a billion dollars (to use a round number).

Spreading cynicism is a self-fulfilling prophecy on a large enough scale. The primary thing lacking is the will of enough people.
I can certainly give an order of magnitude more to this project than I did to DSI... so ya, why not, I'm in too. Once they say where to send the money.

I think I'll chip in too, but only after I've scraped together something to donate for the B612 Sentinel mission. Unfortunately my main source of money for this sort of thing is my "skipping lunch" budget.

~Jon
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: StephenB on 02/27/2013 09:12 pm
From Wired: Private Plan to Send Humans to Mars in 2018 Might Not Be So Crazy (http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/02/inspiration-mars-foundation/) (on page 2), regarding MacCallum and Poynter from Paragon Space (who are married to each other):

Quote
When I pointed out that, with their previous experience in the Biosphere-2 experiment, he and Poynter happened to fit that description to a T, they both laughed.

“We have talked about it,” said Poynter. “And when the right time comes, I think we’ll put our hat in the ring.” But she and MacCallum added that they would be happy to be part of the mission in any way, even as ground support.

Problem solved. ;)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: brtbrt on 02/27/2013 09:13 pm
Stunned to read some of the posts about the human element.

The core motivation for exploration has never been science, technology, wealth, or even political desire to expand borders.  It has always been about simple human desire.  Saying the primary beneficiaries of the mission are the next generation is putting the shoe on the right foot, and emphasizing all of the human issues and their impacts on the mission is finally speaking the real deal.
Plus eleven. I'm sick of the cynicism so rampant on this site nowadays. This is a serious attempt to do something /awesome/, and it seems possible technically if they can rustle up a billion. It'd be a good thing for humanity, and I want to live in a universe where this sort of thing happens. Instead of arguing about how everything is going to fail, how there's no market, blah blah blah (skepticism is not misplaced in response to naive optimism about things which just simply aren't possible, but that's not what this is)... I'm going to put my money where my mouth is; I'm going to pitch in.

If I posted that some economists are saying a turn around will happen after 2015, I'd be laughed off this forum and any other forum; If I said that in 5-7 years we will have organic Computer processors, and 3D printing that can print organs as well as your breakfast, and others that build parts for LV and Space Craft, I'd be asked what I'm smoking, or what universe I'm living in...
   But because these people have been working on something for X years, and have finally decided to go public, we are to be skeptical of their claims, even though one of them has been funding it privately up to now, and has committed to funding it for two years (that 2015 date again)

   Sorry, but from my POV, these guys and gals have the right stuff, and know the difficulties before them, with a funded game plan in motion NOW... not when they have their crowd sourced money some time in a hazy future...
   I'll hold my skepticism for a year, to see what comes of this and then make an assessment... In the mean time, I'll keep hoping that make it, as it will make a great 70yrs + 1 day Birthday Present :D
   
   Gramps

So I think there's a fine line between cynicism and criticism. The former is not very productive, as it gets expressed in the various fora.

The latter... To quote David Brin: "Criticism Is The Only Known Antidote To Error (TM)". I very much agree, even when I or my goofy ideas are the target thereof.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: david1971 on 02/27/2013 09:14 pm
Can I get context on people's estimates of probabilities of Tito's success.  In other words, toss in the new Mars mission and rank the projects on a 0 to 10 scale, explaining your answers.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 02/27/2013 09:16 pm
It's good that he's saying he's dedicating his own money. It's bad that he won't say how much. The comments about donations, sponsorships and media rights are the usual hopes and dreams.

The non-hype headline for this announcement is: Dennis Tito Funds Development Of Long Duration Life Support System.

That's all that's going on here and may even be within his budget.

Paragon should be congratulated for their coup.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Orbiter on 02/27/2013 09:24 pm
My question is - what if they miss the deadline even by a few months for technical reasons related to processing, whatever you have it? Could they try a circumlunar mission instead?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: StephenB on 02/27/2013 09:25 pm
It's good that he's saying he's dedicating his own money. It's bad that he won't say how much. The comments about donations, sponsorships and media rights are the usual hopes and dreams.

The non-hype headline for this announcement is: Dennis Tito Funds Development Of Long Duration Life Support System.

That's all that's going on here and may even be within his budget.

Paragon should be congratulated for their coup.

He's a proven finance guy who's pledged to spend as much as it takes. That's a big plus and a cut above GoldenSpike in my book. That last sentence comes across as cynical.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 09:28 pm
It's good that he's saying he's dedicating his own money. It's bad that he won't say how much.
..because he doesn't know how much the studies/designing for next two year costs? In any case the big money comes only after that when you gotta buy spacecrafts and launch vehicles.

Quote
Paragon should be congratulated for their coup.

Well it's good to have ECLSS experts on a project that relies mostly on  inaccurate-proof very reliable ECLSS.  ;D


On a more general note: given the preceding announcements that reduced into crowd-begging isn't it understandable that more people prefer critical, even somewhat cynical, approach rather than get lulled into...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 02/27/2013 09:32 pm
He's a proven finance guy who's pledged to spend as much as it takes.

The media* would be wise to learn that numbers are not open to interpretation. If you don't get a number, you don't know how much is actually on the table.

Quote
That's a big plus and a cut above GoldenSpike in my book.

So that's your standard now?

Quote
That last sentence comes across as cynical.

And?

* The space media that is.. the general media is already clued into this.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: jongoff on 02/27/2013 09:36 pm
My question is - what if they miss the deadline even by a few months for technical reasons related to processing, whatever you have it? Could they try a circumlunar mission instead?

I wonder if there are any NEO or Venus flyby missions that the same hardware could do if they miss their deadline--cause right now the five year deadline is really tight.

~Jon
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 02/27/2013 09:37 pm

So I think there's a fine line between cynicism and criticism. The former is not very productive, as it gets expressed in the various fora.

The latter... To quote David Brin: "Criticism Is The Only Known Antidote To Error (TM)". I very much agree, even when I or my goofy ideas are the target thereof.

I quite agree, but too often I see a level of criticism that says, "Prove to me you can do this, before you even try!!" that is what is so frustrating.. very often, like the Lewis and Clark Expedition, or the pushing the rail roads west through the Rockies, there is no answer to that... you start where you start, and find that passage that takes you to the other side... no matter how difficult it may be, and whoever it bankrupts or political career it destroys...

Gramps
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: StephenB on 02/27/2013 09:38 pm
Quote
That last sentence comes across as cynical.

And?

See above posts on the difference between cynicism and criticism.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/27/2013 09:44 pm
If I posted that blah blah blah ... If I said that in 5-7 years we will have blah blah blah ... I'd be asked what I'm smoking...

Hey!  Don't Bogart that joint, my friend. 

Seriously tho, on this site, a lotta people struggle with reading comprehension, and a good number of them rely on smilies for self expression.  They completely miss much of what this mission is about.

OpsAnalyst worries a bit too much; it's the internets after all.

Stunned to read some of the posts about the human element.

The core motivation for exploration has never been science, technology, wealth, or even political desire to expand borders.  It has always been about simple human desire.  Saying the primary beneficiaries of the mission are the next generation is putting the shoe on the right foot, and emphasizing all of the human issues and their impacts on the mission is finally speaking the real deal.


I'm hip to the argument that all those goofy tweets about "markets" and "compatibility", and "that three letter word", actually reflect a portion of the "will of the poeple".  There is something to be alarmed about with that consideration;  I certainly rant and rave about it to the extent that the mods allow.  I'm not that stunned tho.

The core motivation for all freely and willfully chosen human activity, beyond sustinence, is exactly as you say.  The scientificismists disagree, and point to charts and figures and equations hoping to reframe the argument to prove that their projected scientific return here and there is, and can only be, "beneficial", but that proof cannot be made.

I think that most of those folks here who are chanting "fail, fail", realize that this mission is not at all about science.  It is about pulling off a stunt.  The technology would be used to support the stunt, not the other way around.  Pulling off the stunt will not end the Taliban's barbarism, starvation in Africa, or discrimination in Amerika, but it will serve a different and valid spiritual benefit for people everywhere.  In my opinion, success of this mission would be quite valuable.

In the meantime, I don't have to prove to Tito that he can do it.  He has to prove that to me.  I hope Tito pulls it off.  Maybe they'll name Yugoslavia after him or something.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: titanmiller on 02/27/2013 09:53 pm
Has anyone found a full recording of the press release? I haven't seen it yet.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 09:54 pm
I wonder if there are any NEO or Venus flyby missions that the same hardware could do if they miss their deadline--cause right now the five year deadline is really tight.

Not honestly much point in a NEO flyby, and you couldn't play the gravity assist trick. Venus is possible, but not nearly as exciting. Could be an option for a follow-up though.

I actually think the limited timeline is a very good thing. In a year or two we;ll know if the can do it or not. IMHO, that's the reason Tito put the two year limit, not because he wants to limit how much he spends, he's just not going to keep putting money into if it won't happen. He does know a thing or two about investing...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 09:55 pm
6/10 for Tito. Solid funding for the next two years. Even if the mission doesn't pan out the R&D may be valuable for the next effort.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Orbiter on 02/27/2013 09:55 pm
Has anyone found a full recording of the press release? I haven't seen it yet.

Ask and you shall recieve.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qc_RycDf6hU
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 09:56 pm
Thanks! Got enough for an article, but wouldn't mind filling in some gaps in quotes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Jason Davies on 02/27/2013 09:57 pm
What are you going to say in the article Chris?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: SpacexULA on 02/27/2013 09:58 pm
With IMF, Mars One, Planetary Resources, Golden Spike, etc etc I wonder if there is any chance of them working together at all.  Seems like a lot of them need similar equipment in the near term.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 10:03 pm
What are you going to say in the article Chris?

I'm not going to "say" anything. ;) No one cares what I've got to say, they just want news, and that's how it should be - especially when I'm absolutely in the bottom 50 percent per the "knowledge" of the posters on here.

I'm just going to write it up and see if I can push in some other Mars stuff, as opposed to a rehash of the presser.

And if that was in reference to my posts on here about how the presser was very good for the first 30 mins and then went into a bit of fluff for the second half, remember I can mumble about anything on the forum, but I put on a very different hat for the articles. I don't do opinion as news. Besides, we cover vehicles and missions here, so that element of the presser is what I'll be using. That was all very interesting. :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 10:05 pm
Mission animation.

Source:
http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/02/27/17107722-millionaire-dennis-tito-plans-to-send-woman-and-man-to-mars-and-back?lite
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChuckC on 02/27/2013 10:26 pm
Sorry, but I am very unhappy with this whole proposal and announcement. I just can't take this seriously.

I think this will fail inevitably, but before doing so, it will serve to ridiculize the entire concept of a manned Mars mission. The talking heads will have a field day with this. And the goofy cartoony graphics only serves to hand them more ammo.


First of all this the closes we have actually gotten to a manned mission to Mars. Second if it gets as far as Trance Mars Injection and the crew dies in flight it It could actually help encourage a flight in 2035 in their memory and that they would not have died in vain.

Given that not NASA plan has ever gotten beyond goofy cartoony graphics I don't see how this could hurt any thing.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 02/27/2013 10:41 pm
6/10 for Tito. Solid funding for the next two years. Even if the mission doesn't pan out the R&D may be valuable for the next effort.

Absolutely. Nice to see Paragon getting some more funding. They do good work.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 02/27/2013 11:07 pm
It's good that he's saying he's dedicating his own money. It's bad that he won't say how much. The comments about donations, sponsorships and media rights are the usual hopes and dreams.

The non-hype headline for this announcement is: Dennis Tito Funds Development Of Long Duration Life Support System.

That's all that's going on here and may even be within his budget.

Paragon should be congratulated for their coup.

He's a proven finance guy who's pledged to spend as much as it takes. That's a big plus and a cut above GoldenSpike in my book. That last sentence comes across as cynical.

Cynical is definitely the wrong word.  Nice little earner may be better.

At the end of this exercise Paragon will have a TRL 9 long duration life support system suitable for spacestations and Moon bases.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 11:08 pm
This person's other response was that they had never heard of Paragon.

Really? Paragon has gone of order $10 million in NASA contracts, all for life support stuff.

Most relevant being: http://www.nasa.gov/offices/c3po/partners/paragon/index.html
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 02/27/2013 11:11 pm
My question is - what if they miss the deadline even by a few months for technical reasons related to processing, whatever you have it? Could they try a circumlunar mission instead?

I wonder if there are any NEO or Venus flyby missions that the same hardware could do if they miss their deadline--cause right now the five year deadline is really tight.

~Jon

If they are late they could make the trip 2 years later.

What delta-V will that Mars trip require?
How long? as this effects food, water and air mass.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 11:16 pm
My question is - what if they miss the deadline even by a few months for technical reasons related to processing, whatever you have it? Could they try a circumlunar mission instead?

I wonder if there are any NEO or Venus flyby missions that the same hardware could do if they miss their deadline--cause right now the five year deadline is really tight.

~Jon

If they are late they could make the trip 2 years later.

They did not say that. They said they have ops in 2018 and 2031.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Joel on 02/27/2013 11:20 pm
Venus is possible, but not nearly as exciting.

Yeah, Venus is boring. What's the point of visiting our twin planet anyway. ;)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 11:36 pm


That's what they claim, but it may not be true. I was talking about this to a person who is fairly familiar with life support systems for ISS and they just rolled their eyes. Their response was that this group may have dramatically over-estimated what the actual state of the art of life support systems is. So saying that "no dedicated tech has to be developed" may be based upon a lack of understanding of just how reliable and effective the existing technology is.

Been pausing to get some reaction for context from the people I know and I'm getting the exact same reaction!

Also, I think anyone who follows the ISS Status Reports will understand just how troublesome these systems can be on the ISS.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 02/27/2013 11:44 pm


That's what they claim, but it may not be true. I was talking about this to a person who is fairly familiar with life support systems for ISS and they just rolled their eyes. Their response was that this group may have dramatically over-estimated what the actual state of the art of life support systems is. So saying that "no dedicated tech has to be developed" may be based upon a lack of understanding of just how reliable and effective the existing technology is.

Been pausing to get some reaction for context from the people I know and I'm getting the exact same reaction!

Also, I think anyone who follows the ISS Status Reports will understand just how troublesome these systems can be on the ISS.

And that is why I like NSF and it's members. With all the expertise out there, it kind of like the cream in milk, it rises to the top, and the BS can be skimmed off ;) 364 more days, and I'll be watching...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/27/2013 11:48 pm
This person's other response was that they had never heard of Paragon.

Really? Paragon has gone of order $10 million in NASA contracts, all for life support stuff.

Most relevant being: http://www.nasa.gov/offices/c3po/partners/paragon/index.html

I am just well read and I've heard of Paragon!  Makes you woonder about some experts...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/28/2013 12:04 am
This person's other response was that they had never heard of Paragon.

Really? Paragon has gone of order $10 million in NASA contracts, all for life support stuff.

Most relevant being: http://www.nasa.gov/offices/c3po/partners/paragon/index.html

I am just well read and I've heard of Paragon!  Makes you woonder about some experts...

Did you sleep in a Holiday Inn Express last night?

Your point is?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 02/28/2013 12:05 am
My question is - what if they miss the deadline even by a few months for technical reasons related to processing, whatever you have it? Could they try a circumlunar mission instead?

I wonder if there are any NEO or Venus flyby missions that the same hardware could do if they miss their deadline--cause right now the five year deadline is really tight.

~Jon

If they are late they could make the trip 2 years later.

They did not say that. They said they have ops in 2018 and 2031.

I took that statement with a pinch of salt.

There is an aliment between Earth and Mars about every 2 years.  There is an even lower delta-V trip about every 13 years.  Since the minimums are in 2018 and 2031 Dennis Tito is aiming for the earlier one in 2018.  If he misses it I suspect that he is unlikely to wait until 2031, so he will try to go in 2020.  The greater delta-V will require extra propellant.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 02/28/2013 12:12 am
This person's other response was that they had never heard of Paragon.

Really? Paragon has gone of order $10 million in NASA contracts, all for life support stuff.


Are they a prime? All I see on their website is a lot of support contracts.

$10 million isn't a lot.

Since Prime Contractors tend to manufactures of vehicles Paragon is unlikely to fit that category.  However they did have a Space Act Agreement (SAA) with NASA.  They were one of the first CCDev firms.
http://www.nasa.gov/offices/c3po/partners/paragon/index.html (http://www.nasa.gov/offices/c3po/partners/paragon/index.html)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rcoppola on 02/28/2013 12:16 am


That's what they claim, but it may not be true. I was talking about this to a person who is fairly familiar with life support systems for ISS and they just rolled their eyes. Their response was that this group may have dramatically over-estimated what the actual state of the art of life support systems is. So saying that "no dedicated tech has to be developed" may be based upon a lack of understanding of just how reliable and effective the existing technology is.

Been pausing to get some reaction for context from the people I know and I'm getting the exact same reaction!

Also, I think anyone who follows the ISS Status Reports will understand just how troublesome these systems can be on the ISS.

I am not sure the "No dedicated Tech" with regards to Life Support is a correct characterization. They said they used current ISS systems as a baseline but that they were looking at augmentations needed for reparability, redundancy and that they would be looking at other systems that have not been deployed yet in combination of what's on ISS to do so. So I am not hearing them refer to LIfe Support as a non-issue, quite the contrary.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 02/28/2013 12:20 am
I am by no means an expert when it comes to aeronautics or spaceflight, but I am an engineer and this is the most excited I have been about manned spaceflight in a long time. As that 10 year old said, this is my Apollo (I should say, this could be my Apollo).

There isn't much I can offer except funding and I fully intend to donate what I can. I think we should all remain cynical but also supportive at the same time. Help in any way you can.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Orbiter on 02/28/2013 12:23 am
My question is - what if they miss the deadline even by a few months for technical reasons related to processing, whatever you have it? Could they try a circumlunar mission instead?

I wonder if there are any NEO or Venus flyby missions that the same hardware could do if they miss their deadline--cause right now the five year deadline is really tight.

~Jon

If they are late they could make the trip 2 years later.

They did not say that. They said they have ops in 2018 and 2031.

I took that statement with a pinch of salt.

There is an aliment between Earth and Mars about every 2 years.  There is an even lower delta-V trip about every 13 years.  Since the minimums are in 2018 and 2031 Dennis Tito is aiming for the earlier one in 2018.  If he misses it I suspect that he is unlikely to wait until 2031, so he will try to go in 2020.  The greater delta-V will require extra propellant.

Jan. 2018 is the only date optimal for a flyby and return to Earth.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 02/28/2013 12:26 am
{snip}
One other thing that I wonder about--what's the status of those Mickey Mouse solar arrays shown in the artwork? I had heard--maybe not accurate--that the work on them shut down as Constellation got canceled. Maybe they can use something else, but solar arrays may not be an off the shelf system for this spacecraft.

The UltraFlex space solar arrays are made by ATK for the Orion, so its return brought them back.

A bigger version called MegaFlex is under development.
http://www.space.com/18195-atk-megaflex-solar-array.html (http://www.space.com/18195-atk-megaflex-solar-array.html)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 02/28/2013 12:28 am
My question is - what if they miss the deadline even by a few months for technical reasons related to processing, whatever you have it? Could they try a circumlunar mission instead?

I wonder if there are any NEO or Venus flyby missions that the same hardware could do if they miss their deadline--cause right now the five year deadline is really tight.

~Jon

If they are late they could make the trip 2 years later.

They did not say that. They said they have ops in 2018 and 2031.

I took that statement with a pinch of salt.

There is an aliment between Earth and Mars about every 2 years.  There is an even lower delta-V trip about every 13 years.  Since the minimums are in 2018 and 2031 Dennis Tito is aiming for the earlier one in 2018.  If he misses it I suspect that he is unlikely to wait until 2031, so he will try to go in 2020.  The greater delta-V will require extra propellant.

Jan. 2018 is the only date optimal for a flyby and return to Earth.

The best is the enemy of the good.
Have a backup plan for going sub-optimal.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Longhorn John on 02/28/2013 12:44 am
I am by no means an expert when it comes to aeronautics or spaceflight, but I am an engineer and this is the most excited I have been about manned spaceflight in a long time. As that 10 year old said, this is my Apollo (I should say, this could be my Apollo).

There isn't much I can offer except funding and I fully intend to donate what I can. I think we should all remain cynical but also supportive at the same time. Help in any way you can.

Apparently it was a six year old. I say apparently as it's very likely they made that story up.

They didn't even show the letter.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Rocket Science on 02/28/2013 01:07 am
Thanks for the coverage and comments everyone. I’m required to give a lecture and teach a student or two from time to time...  ;D Well, I’ll file this one in the same context of Biosphere II and when I first heard of SpaceX. I always wish them the best and with a healthy dose of reality as in “show me”...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/28/2013 01:11 am
Blackstar: Ultraflex has already been deployed on the Phoenix lander and is going to be used on the later advanced Cygnus modules for CRS. Ultraflex most certainly is still around.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: joek on 02/28/2013 01:13 am
That's what they claim, but it may not be true. I was talking about this to a person who is fairly familiar with life support systems for ISS and they just rolled their eyes. Their response was that this group may have dramatically over-estimated what the actual state of the art of life support systems is. So saying that "no dedicated tech has to be developed" may be based upon a lack of understanding of just how reliable and effective the existing technology is.
Been pausing to get some reaction for context from the people I know and I'm getting the exact same reaction!

Also, I think anyone who follows the ISS Status Reports will understand just how troublesome these systems can be on the ISS.

Unfortunately missed the live webcast, but NewSpace Journal's (http://www.newspacejournal.com/2013/02/27/it-all-sort-of-kept-working-out-maccallum-on-the-development-of-a-human-mars-flyby-mission/) writeup suggests an interesting design counterpoint, which doesn't seem to be mentioned in the paper (emphasis added):
Quote
And what will that two-person crew do during the mission? “Mostly keeping themselves alive,” MacCallum said. The spacecraft’s life support system will be “as non-automated as possible” so it is more easily maintained by the crew, a very different approach to the more automated systems on the ISS designed to free up crew time to do science, but which are more difficult for crews to repair without getting replacement items sent up form Earth. “It’s going to be a ’55 Chevy. They’re going to be taking this apart a lot,” he said.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Paul Howard on 02/28/2013 01:21 am


Unfortunately missed the live webcast,

That's why there was a live thread for you to catch up with here. ;)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Rocket Science on 02/28/2013 01:23 am
Erin Burnette on CNN says basically WTF, you’re not going to be able to walk on Mars??

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/us/2013/02/28/erin-tito-human-mission-to-mars.cnn
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/28/2013 01:37 am
Venus is possible, but not nearly as exciting.

Yeah, Venus is boring. What's the point of visiting our twin planet anyway. ;)

I've gone to a few Venus sessions at conferences, but not yet one that I didn't doze off in... ;)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: joek on 02/28/2013 01:40 am
Unfortunately missed the live webcast,
That's why there was a live thread for you to catch up with here. ;)

And I very much appreciate it (thanks again Chris et. al.).  However, I haven't seen mention of that particular tidbit (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31215.msg1018595#msg1018595), which would seem to be an important consideration.

ECLSS seems to be a hot topic and one of the long poles in the tent for this mission.  A conversation with Paragon about how the differing assumptions and requirements change the design, cost, risk, etc. profile would be in order before pronouncing judgement?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/28/2013 02:04 am
Can't get anyone at NASA who wants to touch this with a quote.

Paragon, however, are involved with both Orion and Dragon's ECLSS:
http://www.paragonsdc.com/paragon_projects_09.php
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: jongoff on 02/28/2013 02:19 am
Can't get anyone at NASA who wants to touch this with a quote.

Paragon, however, are involved with both Orion and Dragon's ECLSS:
http://www.paragonsdc.com/paragon_projects_09.php

I'm kind of surprised people in the ISS life support world weren't familiar with them. I know they didn't do the ISS work (that was most likely more long-time NASA contractor companies like Hamilton Sunstrand I would guess), but I've know about their life support work for 7 or 8 years now, they were one of the CCDev round 1 primes, have been significant players in a lot of the vehicle side ECLSS work...  That would kind of be like me doing space robotics and not knowing about Honeybee Robotics--sure they're not MDA, but that shows a surprising lack of paying attention outside of their narrow niche.

~Jon
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: joek on 02/28/2013 02:20 am
Can't get anyone at NASA who wants to touch this with a quote.

Paragon, however, are involved with both Orion and Dragon's ECLSS:
http://www.paragonsdc.com/paragon_projects_09.php

Maybe an NSF form Q&A with Paragon would help shed some light?  As a small company, they might also be amenable to such?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: jongoff on 02/28/2013 02:23 am
Can't get anyone at NASA who wants to touch this with a quote.

Paragon, however, are involved with both Orion and Dragon's ECLSS:
http://www.paragonsdc.com/paragon_projects_09.php

Maybe an NSF form Q&A with Paragon would help shed some light?  As a small company, they might also be amenable to such?

Seconded. Having met and interacted with Taber a few times in the past, I think he'd likely be amenable to something like that.

~Jon
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/28/2013 02:29 am
Can't get anyone at NASA who wants to touch this with a quote.

Paragon, however, are involved with both Orion and Dragon's ECLSS:
http://www.paragonsdc.com/paragon_projects_09.php

I'm kind of surprised people in the ISS life support world weren't familiar with them.

Just to clarify, I meant none of my NASA friends want to go on quote about the 501 day ECLSS, although the reaction was mainly "good luck with that". I'm sure they've all heard of Paragon.

And yep, I'll be following this all up with interview requests.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: jongoff on 02/28/2013 02:35 am
Can't get anyone at NASA who wants to touch this with a quote.

Paragon, however, are involved with both Orion and Dragon's ECLSS:
http://www.paragonsdc.com/paragon_projects_09.php

I'm kind of surprised people in the ISS life support world weren't familiar with them.

Just to clarify, I meant none of my NASA friends want to go on quote about the 501 day ECLSS, although the reaction was mainly "good luck with that". I'm sure they've all heard of Paragon.

And yep, I'll be following this all up with interview requests.

I was more commenting on Blackstar's original comment, but yeah I can understand someone being skeptical about how easy a 501 day ECLSS will be. If Paragon can pull it off, that will be a very useful experience point for future missions.

~Jon
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: spectre9 on 02/28/2013 02:44 am
In my opinion the whole thing is a advertisement for Paragon ECLSS systems and the enthusiasm is coming from the Biosphere 2 crowd behind them.

Pushing the big payload enabler angle isn't helping anybody.

Like I said in the other thread Zubrin has already done the "Falcon Heavy Fantasy Mission" to inspire people.

Lets wait until the launcher exists before getting carried away.

53000kg to LEO and whatever that translates to in TMI mass needs to be proven. It's quite possible the actual capability of FH will be much lower.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: joek on 02/28/2013 02:50 am
Just to clarify, I meant none of my NASA friends want to go on quote about the 501 day ECLSS, although the reaction was mainly "good luck with that". I'm sure they've all heard of Paragon.

And yep, I'll be following this all up with interview requests.

I'd be really interested in drilling into MacCallum's comment about the ECLSS that “It’s going to be a ’55 Chevy. They’re going to be taking this apart a lot”
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: DFSL on 02/28/2013 02:53 am
I sincerely doubt any of this will become a reality, in the proposed form. Even the 2018 date sounds like a hopeful dream. In my modest opinion, Mars will be reached when some technology breaktrough makes the journey more affordable in terms of costs and time. 2038-2055 maybe...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: joek on 02/28/2013 03:11 am
In my opinion the whole thing is a advertisement for Paragon ECLSS systems and the enthusiasm is coming from the Biosphere 2 crowd behind them.

Way off base horse-sh*t.  The enthusiasm appears to come from, and be backed by, by Tito.  He initiated the project.  He's the primary funding for the project.  Do you really think Tito is stoopid?  What do you expect he gains by backing an "advertisement for Paragon ECLSS systems"?  Or do you think Tito's been brain-washed by the "Biosphere 2 crowd behind them" (and pray tell, who are they)?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: sanman on 02/28/2013 03:27 am
This is the Canadian inflatable hab that was mentioned - they even mention Paragon on their site:

http://www.thin-red-line.com/projects.html

They seem to have supplied Bigelow on Genesis 1/2, so that's a good sign.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: DLR on 02/28/2013 03:35 am
What's the problem with designing a reliable life support system?

Perhaps the key is not too look at every kg of additional mass and a 99%-closed loop. Are there designs with an emphasis on reliability and servicability over mass and efficiency?

Granted, with a mass budget as limited as on a flyby mission using one or two boosters, mass and efficiency are very important factors, but not the only considerations.

As for the launch opportunity, why not a Venus flyby as a backup? Since you're not going to land anyway, it would be just as exciting (to me at least) and also prove the feasibility of human interplanetary spaceflight.

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2011/11/29/forget-asteroidssend-a-manned-flyby-mission-to-venus/

They should've named this venture Inspiration Space or something as to not preclude the possbility of visiting other destinations if the Mars opportunity is missed ... ;)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: hop on 02/28/2013 03:54 am
What's the problem with designing a reliable life support system?
ISS and Mir experience suggests that it is hard. Both the US and Russian had significant problems that were not identified in ground testing. Elektron and Vozdukh had significant heritage from Mir, but still suffered numerous premature failures on ISS. The US water recovery system and oxygen generator have also had significant problems.

Compared to the proposed Mars mission, ISS is relatively benign environment. There is regular resupply, and enough room to keep a lot of spares and old units to cannibalize. Even so, IIRC some of the Elektron problems got uncomfortably close to flight rule limits.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/28/2013 04:11 am
Right then, here's my article on this.

Dennis Tito announces crewed Mars flyby – requires technical advances
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2013/02/tito-announces-crewed-mars-technical-advances/

Aimed to be different than just repeating what other sites have on, and for this thread to be additional information, so went after some of the challenges, threw in some NASA/L2 reference material, but tried to balance it, so it should read like I'm being fair/objective, hopefully!

Already have some fingers in various pies for follow up articles, specific to the heat shield and the ECLSS.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: fregate on 02/28/2013 04:17 am
Just to clarify, I meant none of my NASA friends want to go on quote about the 501 day ECLSS, although the reaction was mainly "good luck with that". I'm sure they've all heard of Paragon.

And yep, I'll be following this all up with interview requests.

I'd be really interested in drilling into MacCallum's comment about the ECLSS that “It’s going to be a ’55 Chevy. They’re going to be taking this apart a lot”
"And the rest is a History"
Mid-60th Reports from NASA Technical Report Server ::)
Preliminary mission study of a single-launch manned Venus flyby with extended Apollo hardware (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19740079915_1974079915.pdf)
Manned Venus Flyby (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19790072165_1979072165.pdf)
Prospects for manned Mars missions (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19660027199)
EXPERIMENT PAYLOADS FOR A MANNED MARS FLYBY MISSION (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19670020562_1967020562.pdf)
Evaluation of space navigation techniques for manned mars flyby mission (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19790072779_1979072779.pdf)
Communication systems design for manned Mars flyby mission (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19790073227_1979073227.pdf)
Manned Mars trips using Venus flyby modes (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19660042638)
On the practicality of manned planetary flyby missions. (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19650040524)
Manned Mars flyby mission and configuration concept (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19870008306)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: yg1968 on 02/28/2013 04:50 am
This person's other response was that they had never heard of Paragon.

Really? Paragon has gone of order $10 million in NASA contracts, all for life support stuff.

Most relevant being: http://www.nasa.gov/offices/c3po/partners/paragon/index.html

Paragon is also a subcontractor for SpaceX for some of their commercial crew work.

http://www.paragonsdc.com/docs/Paragon%20Joins%20SpaceX%20Commercial%20Crew%20Development%20Team.pdf
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: beancounter on 02/28/2013 04:58 am
In my opinion the whole thing is a advertisement for Paragon ECLSS systems and the enthusiasm is coming from the Biosphere 2 crowd behind them.

Pushing the big payload enabler angle isn't helping anybody.

Like I said in the other thread Zubrin has already done the "Falcon Heavy Fantasy Mission" to inspire people.

Lets wait until the launcher exists before getting carried away.

53000kg to LEO and whatever that translates to in TMI mass needs to be proven. It's quite possible the actual capability of FH will be much lower.

From what I recall of the conference, the touted the existing ULA launchers and cough, SLS (more powerpoint than FH) as well.  I don't think anyone is really getting carried away but I for one, would be rapt to see this proposal progress to fruition. 

We know that it's going to last 2 years at the minimum since Tito is going to personally fund it for that time.  It'll be interesting to see what eventuates after that.

Don't know what the odds are but I probably won't be alive to see NASA do it.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: RocketmanUS on 02/28/2013 04:59 am
Right then, here's my article on this.

Dennis Tito announces crewed Mars flyby – requires technical advances
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2013/02/tito-announces-crewed-mars-technical-advances/

Aimed to be different than just repeating what other sites have on, and for this thread to be additional information, so went after some of the challenges, threw in some NASA/L2 reference material, but tried to balance it, so it should read like I'm being fair/objective, hopefully!

Already have some fingers in various pies for follow up articles, specific to the heat shield and the ECLSS.
Good job with the article given there was not much to go on.

There release was more like is there public support ( approval ) for such a mission.

From what I did hear from the replay it sounded like Tito was asked twice how much he was going to spend in the next two years. Did not hear a number for this. It might have been better if he were asked how much he was willing to spend in the next two years and throw the project.

If this can and does work then Mars-One could possible use this transportation system minus the return capsule. Replacing it with a descent craft for Mars. For the money needed to invest it looks like it could be a good idea to team up.

They said there was no docking mechanism. So how does the capsule connect to the module? Or is the module to be launched on top of the capsule? If so then just how powerful would a pusher escape system have to be?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: spectre9 on 02/28/2013 07:08 am
In my opinion the whole thing is a advertisement for Paragon ECLSS systems and the enthusiasm is coming from the Biosphere 2 crowd behind them.

Way off base horse-sh*t.  The enthusiasm appears to come from, and be backed by, by Tito.  He initiated the project.  He's the primary funding for the project.  Do you really think Tito is stoopid?  What do you expect he gains by backing an "advertisement for Paragon ECLSS systems"?  Or do you think Tito's been brain-washed by the "Biosphere 2 crowd behind them" (and pray tell, who are they)?

Brainwashed is too strong a word for it.

I'd say convinced that better ECLSS can help make deep space flight a reality.

Did you read the bios on the paper?

Paragon are world leaders in ECLSS, they want the primary mission enabler to be ECLSS refinements and advancements to lower the mass of components. ISS doesn't go 500 days without resupply. Such a thing has never been tested in space. There are always backups when the oxygen generator goes all funny. ISS used the Russian one for about a decade before another one was installed in the USOS.

They want to make this mission easier by lightening the load for the Falcon Heavy second stage. I believe their expectations of price, performance and availability are too optimistic.

It's not for me though and that's what I just have to keep in mind.

It's "inspirational" and I'll leave it at that and those with stars in their eyes can believe what they want  8)

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: spectre9 on 02/28/2013 07:13 am
I would say it's more for the me of 3 years ago that had no idea how fast you could get to Mars or any real idea of orbital mechanics.

I have since enlightened myself and I hope that the people that hear about this are inspired to do the same.

Mars in within reach for this generation and not the next.

NASA should change course to destination Mars 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Archibald on 02/28/2013 07:50 am
Just to clarify, I meant none of my NASA friends want to go on quote about the 501 day ECLSS, although the reaction was mainly "good luck with that". I'm sure they've all heard of Paragon.

And yep, I'll be following this all up with interview requests.

I'd be really interested in drilling into MacCallum's comment about the ECLSS that “It’s going to be a ’55 Chevy. They’re going to be taking this apart a lot”
"And the rest is a History"
Mid-60th Reports from NASA Technical Report Server ::)
Preliminary mission study of a single-launch manned Venus flyby with extended Apollo hardware (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19740079915_1974079915.pdf)
Manned Venus Flyby (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19790072165_1979072165.pdf)
Prospects for manned Mars missions (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19660027199)
EXPERIMENT PAYLOADS FOR A MANNED MARS FLYBY MISSION (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19670020562_1967020562.pdf)
Evaluation of space navigation techniques for manned mars flyby mission (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19790072779_1979072779.pdf)
Communication systems design for manned Mars flyby mission (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19790073227_1979073227.pdf)
Manned Mars trips using Venus flyby modes (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19660042638)
On the practicality of manned planetary flyby missions. (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19650040524)
Manned Mars flyby mission and configuration concept (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19870008306)

Here's an interesting link - Developspace has some big human spaceflight library.

Venus
http://wiki.developspace.net/Human_Venus_Exploration_Architecture_Studies

Mars
http://wiki.developspace.net/Human_Mars_Exploration_Architecture_Studies

I mentionned this study various times - Zubrin 1996 Athena flyby.

Tito doesn't realize it, but he pretty much re-invented that Zubrin study. The motivations, the tech - a lot of things are very similar (which is hardly surprising)

http://pdf.aiaa.org/getfile.cfm?urlX=85%26%5D0%3BU%2BDN%26S7R%20CMU%24CBQ%3A%2B64K8%26%5FOGJ%0A&urla=%25%2ARH%27%21P%2C%20%0A&urlb=%21%2A%20%20%20%0A&urlc=%21%2A0%20%20%0A&urle=%27%2B%22D%22%23PJCU0%20%20%0A




Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/28/2013 08:17 am
FWIW, all this debate about the LSS proves (in my view, at least) is that Tito was right to put the first money into developing the system.  If that can't be done at a reasonable cost inside the (very, very tight) time-line, then a penny spent on other elements is of only debatable usefulness.

To me, it shows he's got advisers who know where the problems lie and where the hard work is to be done.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: john smith 19 on 02/28/2013 09:58 am
Right then, here's my article on this.

"may provide a timely kick up the backside to space industry, and more so NASA, who hold interest in conducting missions to Mars."
Uncharacteristically blunt.  :o

Mars is deep in unexplored territory and has lots of interesting things happening on its surface. And it's a planet. It should be inspiring more interest if only through its sheer novelty value (which in our media drenched age should not be underestimated).

FWIW, all this debate about the LSS proves (in my view, at least) is that Tito was right to put the first money into developing the system.  If that can't be done at a reasonable cost inside the (very, very tight) time-line, then a penny spent on other elements is of only debatable usefulness.

To me, it shows he's got advisers who know where the problems lie and where the hard work is to be done.

Agreed. It's interesting to recall Lindberg flight across the Atlantic. Something like half a dozen aircraft tried the trip. His was the only one that made. A key enabler was a high reliability engine, allowing him to take off with 1 instead of two. ECLSS (especially closed loop ECLSS) looks like one of the big enablers, given that otherwise you're looking at carrying 5Kg/crew member/day (IE about 5mt) to do this mission.

Sooner or later someone will have to bite the bullet and put some serious effort in making closed loop ECLSS work.

As a species can we really go on puttering about the solar system leaving a trail of CO2 flatulence and (effectively) high tech ready meal cartons in our wake?

Just a thought.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 02/28/2013 12:47 pm
So a 72 year old is going to pay 100 million (hypothetical number) out of pocket to further develop and refine Paragon ECLSS? Sorry but that's a load of horse doo doo. These guys are along for the ride and a means to an end.



 
In my opinion the whole thing is a advertisement for Paragon ECLSS systems and the enthusiasm is coming from the Biosphere 2 crowd behind them.

Pushing the big payload enabler angle isn't helping anybody.

Like I said in the other thread Zubrin has already done the "Falcon Heavy Fantasy Mission" to inspire people.

Lets wait until the launcher exists before getting carried away.

53000kg to LEO and whatever that translates to in TMI mass needs to be proven. It's quite possible the actual capability of FH will be much lower.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/28/2013 12:50 pm
Right then, here's my article on this.

"may provide a timely kick up the backside to space industry, and more so NASA, who hold interest in conducting missions to Mars."
Uncharacteristically blunt.  :o

That's a friendly greeting in Yorkshire! ;) The point was a number of people - and usually people like me - would say "Oh, this isn't going to happen. Good news is NASA plan to do it". Well NASA's planned to do it for decades now.....and the ESD DRM status for Mars is "TBA", so that's where that came from.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/28/2013 01:17 pm
So a 72 year old is going to pay 100 million (hypothetical number) out of pocket to further develop and refine Paragon ECLSS? Sorry but that's a load of horse doo doo. These guys are along for the ride and a means to an end.

That's quite an accusation to level! What end are they a means towards then?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/28/2013 01:41 pm
If they are late they could make the trip 2 years later.

I don't think so.  According to their software, the next opp is in 2031.  They depend on orbital alignments and gravity assist for the trajectory.  From reading L&P, it sounds like their software has found an "optimal" type of cycler orbit.  Their paper does not refer to Niehoff and Hoffman 1996, however.  As to your later speculation that Tito will try again in 2020, that's not supported by the graph presented in their paper.  From their abstract:

Quote from: Tito et al
Abstract—In 1998 Patel et al searched for Earth-Mars free-return trajectories that leave Earth, fly by Mars, and return to Earth without any deterministic maneuvers after Trans-Mars Injection. They found fast trajectory opportunities occurring two times every 15 years with a 1.4-year duration, significantly less than most Mars free return trajectories, which take up to 3.5 years. This paper investigates these fast trajectories. It also determines the launch and life support feasibility of flying such a mission using hardware expected to be available in time for an optimized fast trajectory opportunity in January, 2018.

The "" between Earth and Mars about every 2 years. is not pertinant to their mission profile.

 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31215.msg1018573#msg1018573aliment[/url)
... I can understand someone being skeptical about how easy a 501 day ECLSS will be. If Paragon can pull it off, that will be a very useful experience point for future missions.

That's the salient point.  Tito and all glossed over the ECLSS question. 

Their announced strategy, having the boy and girl do much of the maintenance work, sounds like a correct approach. To offer the most mundane example; it's easier to clean the toilet yourself for 501 days, than design, build, power, troubleshoot, and repair a robot to do it for you. That would hold for cooking, eating, dishwashing, and many other fairly mundane but necessary tasks.

Their anecdote about working on a '55 Chevy clearly shows that they are not aware that it's far, far easier to work on Fords rather than Chevies.

Seriously, their overplayed anecdote fails on several important levels.  For starters, they'd be working on an '18 Chevy Volt, where most of the repairs are taking out complete modules and replacing them.  They're not rebuilding carbs, where you have about a 100 to 1 mass ratio between the carb body and the rebuild kit.  They will more likely have a 1 to 1 mass ratio for many of their thought to be repairable subsystems.

If their ECLSS system is actually designed to be repairable, along the lines of the way our machinery used to be designed, that would be great.  But they didn't say much beyond their assertion that ECLSS will cost a lot less than one might think.  Certainly Paragon will not share that much with the public.

Mid-60th Reports from NASA Technical Report Server

Many thanks for the effort.  The one I wanted to read, "Manned Mars trips using Venus flyby modes", has not been digitized.

So a 72 year old is going to pay 100 million (hypothetical number) out of pocket to further develop and refine Paragon ECLSS? Sorry but that's a load of horse doo doo. These guys are along for the ride and a means to an end.

That's quite an accusation to level! What end are they a means towards then?

A job for the next couple of years?  It's a fair speculation.

I've gone to a few Venus sessions at conferences, but not yet one that I didn't doze off in...


Well then, try partying all nite long before attending the next conference, and make sure you schedule the conference at 7:00 in the morning.  That should work.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: sanman on 02/28/2013 01:43 pm
But I thought Taber MacCallum and Jane Poynter both said they were also willing to be candidates on the list of possible flyers. They both look reasonably qualified (if anyone can be for this kind of thing), and can claim that Biosphere2 thing under their belts.

Gee, I'd expect even their mission control personnel on the ground need to be very carefully handpicked as well. I wonder if Pauly Shore is available?

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/28/2013 02:23 pm
The didn't gloss over the ECLSS, they actually focused on it. I didn't see any capsule or inflatable or launch vehicle contractors, just ECLSS ones. Tito is going to work his hardest to address this tech issue as soon as possible, he most certainly isn't ignoring it.


BTW, this reminds me of a slightly saner version of the late Rspeck's sort of austere HSF architecture.

You can't take it with you! We are all mortal, what are we going to do with the short time allotted to our lives?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dasun on 02/28/2013 02:49 pm
I must say I am very sceptical about this - less than 5 years to pull all this together on what is effectively a shoe string budget.  This is a complex hardware integration and - particularly for ECLSS - research and development effort.  Did anyone look at their notional schedules in the paper they are presenting; having worked Defence projects I would call them ambitious and no where detailed enough as much is glossed over - might be the nature of the paper though.

In my view, if this was a well funded state sponsored crash (not literally!) effort then most likely it could be done, at least they are willing to accept the risk level exploration deserves unlike todays NASA where risk is mitigated to the nth degree with consequent hits to scope, budget and schedule.

As for choosing the crew; I would think you would be looking for people in their 40's and up who have done their breeding (particularly for the female given the radiation environment), who have space experience and are proven to function well in spartan high risk environments (extreme explorers, military special forces come to mind).  This will be a very narrow pool to fish in but choosing anyone else could well jeopardise the mission given the psychological challenges imposed by a mission that carries such extreme risk.

If this mission (ok, stunt) can get off the pad and on it's way that will be fantastic as it will set a new bar for deep space exploration and move us on from the Apollo nostalgia many feel.  However, it could be like diving to the deepest point of the Ocean in 1961 (?) and not repeating the exercise until 2012 (?) rather then a new dawn for BEO exploration.  As Chris said - give NASA a kick up the pants and get 'em moving rather than power pointing.

I really hope this mission comes to fruition but I am extremely dubious that it actually will.  And please be careful about using the term inflatables - particularly if it winds up with 2 guys in the cabin!     

   
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/28/2013 02:51 pm
The five years is a seriously short time frame... But just barely possible.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Afrocle on 02/28/2013 03:00 pm
The didn't gloss over the ECLSS, they actually focused on it. I didn't see any capsule or inflatable or launch vehicle contractors, just ECLSS ones. Tito is going to work his hardest to address this tech issue as soon as possible, he most certainly isn't ignoring it.


BTW, this reminds me of a slightly saner version of the late Rspeck's sort of austere HSF architecture.

You can't take it with you! We are all mortal, what are we going to do with the short time allotted to our lives?

Taber said at the press event that Thin Red Line in Canada would make their inflatable, but that they had ILC Dover and Bigelow as options. Taber also said that the metal pressure module from Thales Alenia for the OSC Cygnus was an option.

They said that they had an SAA with NASA-Ames that I think was for the heat shield and possibly for the reentry capsule analysis. Taber specifically responded to a reporter saying that his use of SpaceX data "was like a high school level research paper", by saying that they did not talk to SpaceX beyond validating that the numbers on the SpaceX web site were correct. They were trying to make it as clear as possible that they had no serious contact with SpaceX at all.

Their analysis of 10 tons total weight for the entire mission including capsule, inflatable, and supplies and their repeated suggestions that they had already traded-out rendezvous and docking equipment and propulsion to save weight would logically lead to a potential conclusion that the exisiting Dragon capsule (of 4 tons before propulsion, rendezvous, docking, etc. are subtracted) is too heavy for them to meet their existing 10-ton goal. It would make sense to avoid SpaceX if you have initially concluded that even the Dragon capsule is too heavy. I would hope, for their sake, that they increase their total weight upwards from 10 tons and that they modify the proven Dragon capsule from SpaceX.

They consistently said at the press event that this would happen with launch of 1 rocket and that this was in line with the SLS/Orion "program of record" from NASA which they fully support and encourage. They specifically mentioned Delta IV Heavy as an option, and I have seen past analysis which says that the Delta IV Heavy can throw over 10 tons (that they require) to Mars with its LH2 upper stage and use of already available 1st stage enhancements. I would think that they believe that both Delta IV Heavy and Falcon Heavy are options to throw their 10 tons to the Mars trajectory that they need.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Afrocle on 02/28/2013 03:10 pm
The five years is a seriously short time frame... But just barely possible.

The 5 year time limit is brilliant for their goals, because it creates the sense of urgency that justifies all of their other technical and financial trades.

Their goal is to inspire Americans today for the NASA SLS/Orion "program of record" in the 2030s that will also send humans on a flyby (possibly an orbit but not a landing) of Mars. Their goal is to duplicate the NASA SLS/Orion program of record for the 2030s with a 1-off mission to Mars in 2018 using private financing to inspire people today for 2018 (which is less than 5 years away).

This is one reason why they had the widows of famous Apollo and Shuttle Astronauts as featured speakers.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: AndyMc on 02/28/2013 03:21 pm
Mars Mission seeks married couple: in space, no one can hear you argue  ;)

From The Guardian: http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/shortcuts/2013/feb/28/mars-mission-married-couple-space (http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/shortcuts/2013/feb/28/mars-mission-married-couple-space)

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/28/2013 03:24 pm
They were trying to make it as clear as possible that they had no serious contact with SpaceX at all.

Which is a bit .. odd? SpaceX CEO has been talking big plans for Mars for years now. Tito wants to mount a precursory mission testing the essentials to actually get there and back. Why isn't SpaceX exited about potential high-visibility customer and Elon sitting there in the press conference stating that they are going to back this up as much as possible? Too unambitious mission for SpaceX? NIH syndrome?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/28/2013 03:31 pm
Mars Mission seeks married couple: in space, no one can hear you argue  ;)

From The Guardian: http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/shortcuts/2013/feb/28/mars-mission-married-couple-space (http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/shortcuts/2013/feb/28/mars-mission-married-couple-space)

This is my worry - it's already turning into a joke and subject for political cartoons.  As soon as it becomes viewed as a joke, it will become much harder to raise finance or get contractors to give good terms.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: bad_astra on 02/28/2013 03:32 pm
Biosphere 2 made a lot of jokes, plot points for later Cheers episodes and Paulie Shore's early career, but it still was constructed.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/28/2013 03:37 pm
They were trying to make it as clear as possible that they had no serious contact with SpaceX at all.

Which is a bit .. odd? SpaceX CEO has been talking big plans for Mars for years now.

Not really that odd. They'll likely end up working with SpaceX, but are keeping their options open at the moment. Tito said they were talking to several different companies, all of which are extremely interested.

Between the refuelable Delta Second Stage that ULA proposed to Golden Spike and CST-100 (which a Boeing engineer once told me was designed for lunar reentry speeds), IM could skip SpaceX entirely if they wanted to. This isn't a government contract, there is no veneer of having to be fair.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Afrocle on 02/28/2013 03:51 pm
They were trying to make it as clear as possible that they had no serious contact with SpaceX at all.

Which is a bit .. odd? SpaceX CEO has been talking big plans for Mars for years now. Tito wants to mount a precursory mission testing the essentials to actually get there and back. Why isn't SpaceX exited about potential high-visibility customer and Elon sitting there in the press conference stating that they are going to back this up as much as possible? Too unambitious mission for SpaceX? NIH syndrome?

These are all logical questions and responses. The reporter was trying to bait Taber into responding to this type of logic by saying that this was like " a high school report", because they did not do research beyond validating what was on the SpaceX web site.

They intentionally do not have rocket or spacecraft experts on their team, nor do they plan to add any to the team in the next 2 years. With this in mind, it is actually logical that they came to conclusions that no person (especially Elon Musk) who has direct experience with rockets or spacecraft would come to.

The issue is not with SpaceX. The issue here is that they have a team that intentionally is not going to deeply go into the rocket and spacecraft trade space which means that this team might logically avoid other teams, like SpaceX, that would probably start by deeply going into the rocket and spacecraft trade space.

If you come to SpaceX and say that you want a Dragon that weighs less than 3 tons (i.e. remove over 1 ton of weight) and has its rendezvous equipment, docking collar, heat shield, and propulsion removed, then SpaceX would probably kick you out of their factory before introducing you to their Dragon manufacturing team. If you then told SpaceX that this insanely modified Dragon capsule had to dock with an inflatable module (after you just said you would remove the Dragon's docking collar, rendezvous system, and propulsion system), then SpaceX would realize that you have not thought this through yet.

If they want to be successful then they will have to hire some rocket and spacecraft people real soon and start making some better trades real soon. They are smart people, so we can hope that they will figure out this early mistake before it becomes fatal.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Afrocle on 02/28/2013 03:56 pm
They were trying to make it as clear as possible that they had no serious contact with SpaceX at all.

Which is a bit .. odd? SpaceX CEO has been talking big plans for Mars for years now.

Not really that odd. They'll likely end up working with SpaceX, but are keeping their options open at the moment. Tito said they were talking to several different companies, all of which are extremely interested.

Between the refuelable Delta Second Stage that ULA proposed to Golden Spike and CST-100 (which a Boeing engineer once told me was designed for lunar reentry speeds), IM could skip SpaceX entirely if they wanted to. This isn't a government contract, there is no veneer of having to be fair.

CST-100 capsule is much too heavy for them to meet their 10-ton requirement for capsule, inflatable, 500 days supplies, etc. CST-100 capsule is probably double the weight of 4-ton Dragon capsule.

Your make good overall points, however.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Afrocle on 02/28/2013 04:04 pm
They might be looking at a 2 person and 2 ton Gemini-like reentry capsule to meet their 10 ton total weight requirement for capsule, inflatable, 500 days of supplies, etc.

I think that they should start with modifiying an existing 4 ton Dragon capsule and increase their assumed total weight to 12 tons or more, but that would re-open the trade space for rockets and spacecraft, and they seem to not want to deal with that trade space.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/28/2013 04:09 pm
Right, so it's the "morning after" and it's always interesting to gauge reaction after an announcement has sunk in, especially when clarifications provided by people who will always be much cleverer than I'll ever be! ;D

I must admit, I was a bit subdued about this announcement before it was even made, partly because of how the Golden Spike effort was less exciting - but still very interesting - than how it was originally portrayed to me, mainly per the funding side. Mr Tito's not said how much he's putting in, but clearly it's going to be a truck load more than any of the other recent announcements. So that's a box ticked.

The mission is very cool. The timeline seems very tight - but at least it's a timeline and an actual launch target, which is more than can be said for NASA's DRM status for Mars. Box ticked.

Going to be really challenging on items such as the life support. That is in our content field, so that's why we've taken a larger interest in this element and I intend to follow it up. Didn't do too much on it in last night's article, as it's not easy (and sometimes not a good idea) to ask NASA people to go on quote without PAO permission, and I don't like using that "a source said" unless it's unavoidable.

So I'm working on that, along with a potential "in" with Paragon. That's going to be interesting to follow, regardless of what happens, per what I was talking about at the end of the article.

However, what I probably underestimated - and was a bit sarcastic about myself, with the "they'll need pop stars" - is the "KIDS!!" angle. There were some good posts on here about how kids are already interested in space flight and that's something no one will deny. The problem is it'll never be a majority or a large ground swell, but if something like Mars Inspiration gets "more" interested, then that's a step in the right direction.

I did think the presser became fluffy when this was brought up, but fair play, they are looking to do something that actually targets kids, not least because of the heavy involvement of the Challenger Center...and we all know how much they do. What was underestimated is how big an angle/motivation this is to Mars Inspiration and Mr Tito - it's bigger than I had assumed. So that's all good and we should support it

So let's follow this, try and support it, question it without sniping (I was guilty of that when the letter was mentioned) and we'll see how it progresses over the coming years. Let's face it, everyone on here is a space flight fan, so we would all love this to work out.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 02/28/2013 04:30 pm
I want to chip in one point after seeing the video.

They clearly did not mention SLS as a possible launcher for their project. They mentioned SLS needed for a landing mission.

Also I understand that they never intended to go for less than ~30mł pressurized volume for crew and consumables.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Hodapp on 02/28/2013 04:31 pm
Well spoken as usual!
Anybody wanting to invest in space is a great thing!
I'm really hoping that commercial suborbital flights succeed. (I plan on flying the XCOR Lynx, hopefully in about 6 years...hopefully!)  I think over time those industries will ultimately build the grassroots organizations that will ultimately make NASA's budget stable and private ventures into space common.  Once enough rich and upper middle class ppl fly into space, and actually experience it...I think its a game changer in the Human Space Flight effort, not just here but globally! (I hope)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/28/2013 04:41 pm
The[y] didn't gloss over the ECLSS, they actually focused on it.

They did not gloss over how important ECLSS was, so in that sense, they "focused" on the importance of ECLSS, and the importance only.  They stated that the crew would spend significant time operating, maintaining, and probably repairing the system. 

They did not offer, in their presentation, any information whatsoever about what specific systems they had already developed, which were as easy to repair as their asserted comparison to a '55 Chevy.  In that important sense, they glossed over ECLSS. and overworked their '55 analogy.

Why isn't SpaceX exited about potential high-visibility customer and Elon sitting there in the press conference stating that they are going to back this up as much as possible?

Maybe the ECLSS data aren't vetted?

Mr Tito's not said how much he's putting in, but clearly it's going to be a truck load more than any of the other recent announcements. So that's a box ticked.

Mr. Tito's remarks sound good, but the only box actually ticked, that we can see, is the one calling for a website and a press conference.  Mr. Tito only stated that he would tick the two year box.

Wife's log. Stardate 2018.51
Me: Why have you left the toilet seat up again? (http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/shortcuts/2013/feb/28/mars-mission-married-couple-space)

Too funny.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Longhorn John on 02/28/2013 04:41 pm
Right, so it's the "morning after" and it's always interesting to gauge reaction after an announcement has sunk in, especially when clarifications provided by people who will always be much cleverer than I'll ever be! ;D

I must admit, I was a bit subdued about this announcement before it was even made, partly because of how the Golden Spike effort was less exciting - but still very interesting - than how it was originally portrayed to me, mainly per the funding side. Mr Tito's not said how much he's putting in, but clearly it's going to be a truck load more than any of the other recent announcements. So that's a box ticked.

The mission is very cool. The timeline seems very tight - but at least it's a timeline and an actual launch target, which is more than can be said for NASA's DRM status for Mars. Box ticked.

Going to be really challenging on items such as the life support. That is in our content field, so that's why we've taken a larger interest in this element and I intend to follow it up. Didn't do too much on it in last night's article, as it's not easy (and sometimes not a good idea) to ask NASA people to go on quote without PAO permission, and I don't like using that "a source said" unless it's unavoidable.

So I'm working on that, along with a potential "in" with Paragon. That's going to be interesting to follow, regardless of what happens, per what I was talking about at the end of the article.

However, what I probably underestimated - and was a bit sarcastic about myself, with the "they'll need pop stars" - is the "KIDS!!" angle. There were some good posts on here about how kids are already interested in space flight and that's something no one will deny. The problem is it'll never be a majority or a large ground swell, but if something like Mars Inspiration gets "more" interested, then that's a step in the right direction.

I did think the presser became fluffy when this was brought up, but fair play, they are looking to do something that actually targets kids, not least because of the heavy involvement of the Challenger Center...and we all know how much they do. What was underestimated is how big an angle/motivation this is to Mars Inspiration and Mr Tito - it's bigger than I had assumed. So that's all good and we should support it

So let's follow this, try and support it, question it without sniping (I was guilty of that when the letter was mentioned) and we'll see how it progresses over the coming years. Let's face it, everyone on here is a space flight fan, so we would all love this to work out.

OK Chris. I'll also go with that too.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: aldelphi on 02/28/2013 05:27 pm

  I have not heard any discussion about why a Mars flyby is better than a Venus flyby.  The Venus flyby alignment would likely happen more often and it would be a shorter mission.  It was proposed back in the Apollo days.  A Venus flyby would also be just as inspirational.  So why not Venus?  Would a Venus flyby require more or less rocket fuel and course adjustments?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ugordan on 02/28/2013 05:39 pm
A Venus flyby would also be just as inspirational.
I disagree. Venus is a hellhole and there's really nothing to "see" there. A blindingly white, featureless orb that holds no prospects of being visited by a landing mission.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: SpacexULA on 02/28/2013 05:51 pm
A Venus flyby would also be just as inspirational.
I disagree. Venus is a hellhole and there's really nothing to "see" there. A blindingly white, featureless orb that holds no prospects of being visited by a landing mission.

Venus is a bit more interesting than that, but I would agree Mars is in the top 2-3 most interesting destinations in the inner solar system.  Commercial exploitation of Venus would likely come way after Mars, Moon and NEO, likely even after the asteroid belt.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/28/2013 06:00 pm
I have not heard any discussion about why a Mars flyby is better than a Venus flyby.

Agreed that it would be easier but, let's be brutal here, they (the wider world) don't care about Venus the way they do Mars.  Mars has a 'sexy' value that seems to capture the popular imagination in a way no other world in the solar system does.  I think it's because we've had it pounded into our heads by NASA and others that Mars is the next step after The Moon that everyone expects a crewed mission to go there, no matter how difficult or costly.

When you're playing the PR game, you have to work according to popular expectations.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChileVerde on 02/28/2013 06:09 pm
I have not heard any discussion about why a Mars flyby is better than a Venus flyby.

Agreed that it would be easier but, let's be brutal here, they (the wider world) don't care about Venus the way they do Mars.  Mars has a 'sexy' value that seems to capture the popular imagination in a way no other world in the solar system does.  I think it's because we've had it pounded into our heads by NASA and others that Mars is the next step after The Moon that everyone expects a crewed mission to go there, no matter how difficult or costly.

When you're playing the PR game, you have to work according to popular expectations.

Exactly so. This enterprise is based on psychological/emotional/ideological/cultural reasons (of which I heartily approve). Mars is Mars and Venus, well, isn't.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/28/2013 06:12 pm
If only Venus and Mars had switched places.... We'd have two more potentially habitable worlds to explore.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/28/2013 06:40 pm
If they miss Jan 2018 window would there be other windows relatively soon after that for trajectories that include Venus fly-by? And if so would those have required delta-v in the doable regime?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/28/2013 06:55 pm
If they miss Jan 2018 window would there be other windows relatively soon after that for trajectories that include Venus fly-by? And if so would those have required delta-v in the doable regime?
I would imagine Venus would only very rarely be in the right place at the right time... Unless you got lucky, I think they'd only be in the right place (for similar delta-v requirements) about once every century or two.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 02/28/2013 07:05 pm
If they miss Jan 2018 window would there be other windows relatively soon after that for trajectories that include Venus fly-by? And if so would those have required delta-v in the doable regime?
I would imagine Venus would only very rarely be in the right place at the right time... Unless you got lucky, I think they'd only be in the right place (for similar delta-v requirements) about once every century or two.

The synodic period of venus and earth is shorter than that of mars and earth. So in principle you should have opportunities pretty often. Also, since the venus orbit is not as elliptical as the mars orbit, the opportunities should be pretty similar in their delta-v requirements.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/28/2013 07:15 pm
If they miss Jan 2018 window would there be other windows relatively soon after that for trajectories that include Venus fly-by? And if so would those have required delta-v in the doable regime?
I would imagine Venus would only very rarely be in the right place at the right time... Unless you got lucky, I think they'd only be in the right place (for similar delta-v requirements) about once every century or two.

If I recall Steven Baxter's "Voyage" the Earth-Venus-Mars-Earth trajectory opens only once every century.  The previous one was in June 1986.  However, basing this on a sci-fi novel, no matter how well-researched, is a risk.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/28/2013 07:15 pm
If they miss Jan 2018 window would there be other windows relatively soon after that for trajectories that include Venus fly-by? And if so would those have required delta-v in the doable regime?
I would imagine Venus would only very rarely be in the right place at the right time... Unless you got lucky, I think they'd only be in the right place (for similar delta-v requirements) about once every century or two.

The synodic period of venus and earth is shorter than that of mars and earth. So in principle you should have opportunities pretty often. Also, since the venus orbit is not as elliptical as the mars orbit, the opportunities should be pretty similar in their delta-v requirements.
I assumed he was talking about a ~500-day Mars flyby trajectory that included a bonus Venus flyby.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/28/2013 07:19 pm
Went to revisit the locked pre-thread, strangequark had posted interesting link on the issue:

http://cmapspaceexp.ihmc.us/rid=1JWVZ8RM5-TQKTP4-18RG/Mars%20Free%20Returns%20Via%20Gravity%20Assist%20from%20Venus.pdf (http://cmapspaceexp.ihmc.us/rid=1JWVZ8RM5-TQKTP4-18RG/Mars%20Free%20Returns%20Via%20Gravity%20Assist%20from%20Venus.pdf)

attaching page from the linked pdf .. it appears there's some sort of minimum in late -21/early -22. That's Earth-Venus-Mars-Earth, the paper prefers EMVE because it's about abort-options for short stay missions. EMVE windows repeats every 32yrs, next one is .. 2014.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: sittingduck on 02/28/2013 07:21 pm
This is a reaction thread, so is it OT to discuss a lack of reaction?  Elon's twitter has been silent since the announcement. Can anything be safely surmised without resorting to wild speculation?  I will refrain entirely.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 02/28/2013 07:26 pm
If they are late they could make the trip 2 years later.

I don't think so.  According to their software, the next opp is in 2031.  They depend on orbital alignments and gravity assist for the trajectory.  From reading L&P, it sounds like their software has found an "optimal" type of cycler orbit.  Their paper does not refer to Niehoff and Hoffman 1996, however.  As to your later speculation that Tito will try again in 2020, that's not supported by the graph presented in their paper.  From their abstract:

Quote from: Tito et al
Abstract—In 1998 Patel et al searched for Earth-Mars free-return trajectories that leave Earth, fly by Mars, and return to Earth without any deterministic maneuvers after Trans-Mars Injection. They found fast trajectory opportunities occurring two times every 15 years with a 1.4-year duration, significantly less than most Mars free return trajectories, which take up to 3.5 years. This paper investigates these fast trajectories. It also determines the launch and life support feasibility of flying such a mission using hardware expected to be available in time for an optimized fast trajectory opportunity in January, 2018.

The "" between Earth and Mars about every 2 years. is not pertinant to their mission profile.
{snip} (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31215.msg1018573#msg1018573aliment[/url)

You have not said anything that I did not work out in the first 10 seconds.  According to this mission profile if anything delays launch until February 2018 it is a LOM.

Will Tito really accept a LOM whilst everything is still on the ground?
Or will recover by scrapping the mission profile?  Possible using several Centaurs as an inspace stage.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Atlan on 02/28/2013 07:45 pm
There is a probably stupid idea thats bugging me since the announcment.
Would it be possible to launch the habitat already docked to the capsule(since the docking port is at the tip anyway) with some sort of fairing? Of course you would have to design a fairing for this, but it would still be cheaper than i dual launch i assume. Just stuff everything in the Dragon or CST-100 and after the inflation the astronauts can carry stuff over to the habitat.


I am really thinking, that this would be THE mission for SpaceX, not only because this is a nice PR for them it also seems to me, that this mission has everything they want. They get medical data on a travel to Mars and of course they would get a simple-to-fix long term reliable life support together with the system integration experience (for dragon even a full integration). And of course the would have a new contract. Seems like a really big win in multiple aspects (more so than other companies, because of the outspoken short-term Mars ambitions).
I'm really wondering why the didnt't jump at this opportunity instantly. But what do i know about what is going on there :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: RocketmanUS on 02/28/2013 07:48 pm
Going to be really challenging on items such as the life support. That is in our content field, so that's why we've taken a larger interest in this element and I intend to follow it up. Didn't do too much on it in last night's article, as it's not easy (and sometimes not a good idea) to ask NASA people to go on quote without PAO permission, and I don't like using that "a source said" unless it's unavoidable.

So I'm working on that, along with a potential "in" with Paragon. That's going to be interesting to follow, regardless of what happens, per what I was talking about at the end of the article.
{snip}
I don' think life support would be that big a problem.

Design to be taken apart and rebuilt ( refurbished ). Unlike others that are built but can not big fixed or only some service. Will give the two person crew something else to do.
Use three units-
1st one on
2nd one as back up
3rd being refurbished

Some of the life support might need manual control to reduce complexity and increase reliability.

Then there could be the life support in the flight suit.
Flight suit could also be used for added radiation protection along with the sleeping bag as long as secondary radiation is not more of a problem. So if there was an increase in radiation the crew could possible use this as an option and then would came out the flight suit and sleeping bag for system maintenance, restroom, and eating.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/28/2013 07:51 pm
Would it be possible to launch the habitat already docked to the capsule(since the docking port is at the tip anyway) with some sort of fairing? Of course you would have to design a fairing for this, but it would still be cheaper than i dual launch i assume. Just stuff everything in the Dragon or CST-100 and after the inflation the astronauts can carry stuff over to the habitat.

Would complicate or even prohibit LAS.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 02/28/2013 08:31 pm
I don' think life support would be that big a problem.

It is. Water is to be recycled and food is mostly dry goods. That means water recycling is required for survival and it has not yet been achieved at that level as far as I know.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/28/2013 08:38 pm
SpaceX's Gwen confirmed they have nothing to do with Mars Inspiration, but if they have money, they will be interested in them as a customer. Obvious stuff, but for the thread.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChileVerde on 02/28/2013 08:39 pm
Would complicate or even prohibit LAS.

Since this is supposed to be a private mission, wouldn't they have the option of accepting the ~ 1-2 % risk of no LAS? Unless FAA steps in and says they can't do that, of course.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/28/2013 08:49 pm
Would complicate or even prohibit LAS.
Since this is supposed to be a private mission, wouldn't they have the option of accepting the ~ 1-2 % risk of no LAS?
Yes, and I don't think FAA has a say in it because it is private mission, not passenger transport. Who knows, maybe they have to compromise the LAS anyway due to mass constraints. *speculative armwaving  ;)*
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/28/2013 09:03 pm
SpaceX's Gwen confirmed they have nothing to do with Mars Inspiration, but if they have money, they will be interested in them as a customer.

That's sort of interesting while Elon in the TED talk (http://blog.ted.com/2013/02/27/transforming-transportation-elon-musk-at-ted2013/) just said:

Quote
he says the goal of the company is to advance rocket technology and convert humanity into a spacefaring civilization, it’s hard to laugh him off. Especially when he challenges us to consider which we’d prefer: Exploring other planets, or confining ourselves to earth and eventual, inevitable extinction.

Not even the slightest philanthropy towards Tito's effort then to usher this exploring thing? "Hey we'll give a Dragon as a freebie!"

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: hop on 02/28/2013 09:07 pm
Since this is supposed to be a private mission, wouldn't they have the option of accepting the ~ 1-2 % risk of no LAS? Unless FAA steps in and says they can't do that, of course.
Didn't Tito claim they wouldn't accept much short of 99% chance of survival for the whole mission? Leaving aside questions about how reliably you could calculate that, historical launcher reliability suggests that launching without an LAS would eat the entire risk budget.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: strangequark on 02/28/2013 10:22 pm
You have not said anything that I did not work out in the first 10 seconds.  According to this mission profile if anything delays launch until February 2018 it is a LOM.

Will Tito really accept a LOM whilst everything is still on the ground?
Or will recover by scrapping the mission profile?  Possible using several Centaurs as an inspace stage.

It's the only way to get the time of flight that low with a free return trajectory, so yes, yes he will. Otherwise, you are doing a 750 day mission, or have to perform a burn at Mars.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/28/2013 10:25 pm
Would complicate or even prohibit LAS.

Since this is supposed to be a private mission, wouldn't they have the option of accepting the ~ 1-2 % risk of no LAS? Unless FAA steps in and says they can't do that, of course.
Indeed...

But doesn't Soyuz have the orbital module on top anyway? If you had powerful enough abort motors, just carry everything away...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: beancounter on 03/01/2013 12:18 am
SpaceX's Gwen confirmed they have nothing to do with Mars Inspiration, but if they have money, they will be interested in them as a customer.

That's sort of interesting while Elon in the TED talk (http://blog.ted.com/2013/02/27/transforming-transportation-elon-musk-at-ted2013/) just said:

Quote
he says the goal of the company is to advance rocket technology and convert humanity into a spacefaring civilization, it’s hard to laugh him off. Especially when he challenges us to consider which we’d prefer: Exploring other planets, or confining ourselves to earth and eventual, inevitable extinction.

Not even the slightest philanthropy towards Tito's effort then to usher this exploring thing? "Hey we'll give a Dragon as a freebie!"



Well I'd guess SpaceX have their hands full at the moment not just with a launch but also with their current projects. 
Getting FH and Dragon Crew to operational status would go a long way to assisting the Mars Inspiration venture anyway. 
Why get involved in the details when you're doing all you have to to assist anyway.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Rocket Science on 03/01/2013 12:45 am
Erin Burnette CNN survey: 68% said they would go at this point. You can vote yourself and see poll results updated.

http://outfront.blogs.cnn.com/2013/02/27/millionaire-dennis-tito-looking-for-a-married-couple-for-a-fly-by-mission-to-mars-in-2018/
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 03/01/2013 01:17 am
Elon's lack of response is pretty clear IMO.  He needs this like he needs another negative Tesla road review.

The whole point of the Inspiratin Mars idea is, well, inspiration.  Clearly, othere's nothing objective to be gained from sending two people on a free return trip around Mars with barely enough hardware to get back alive. It doesn't advance science, it doesn't advance technology.  It does, however, solve the psychological problem of "we're not ready yet" - and in a big way.

From Tito and friends' point of view, the problem with exploration is lack of public and political ability to support HSF. They think that if they create inspiration, they'll help the cause.  Hence the children and all.

From Elon's point of view, there's no shortage of inspiration, and he thinks that if he gets the technology ready, one step at a time, then the problem is solved.  From his point of view, this is hurried and counter-productive, especially considering the risks.  (Hence no children and education on the SpaceX web site)

Yet he can't publicly shoot them down.  I think he just figured he'll ignore it for a while and see if it goes away.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 03/01/2013 01:25 am
...  and having said that, I still think their approach to life support is EXACTLY how a Mars colony will have to be designed.

Less automation, more brain and hand power.

You look at a chemical plant (such as a close life support system) and it's never the chemistry that breaks down.  What breaks down is the mechanism that removes the sludge that accumulates around the filter.  Or bio fouling of some tube that needs to be transparent to UV.

If what you have is big glove box in which processes take place, and the astronauts can take a pipe brush and clean the inside of any tube, and manually transfer fluid from tank to tank w/o a pump, then really, there's nothing that can break down.  Just make sure there's not too much energy stored in any one place so it can'd explode.

This is very different than trying to enclose everything in a box.  Think about MSL vs. a human with a rock hammer, a scoop, and some discreet instruments.

This aspect of the mission, I like very much.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 03/01/2013 01:27 am
SpaceX's Gwen confirmed they have nothing to do with Mars Inspiration, but if they have money, they will be interested in them as a customer.

That's sort of interesting while Elon in the TED talk (http://blog.ted.com/2013/02/27/transforming-transportation-elon-musk-at-ted2013/) just said:

Quote
he says the goal of the company is to advance rocket technology and convert humanity into a spacefaring civilization, it’s hard to laugh him off. Especially when he challenges us to consider which we’d prefer: Exploring other planets, or confining ourselves to earth and eventual, inevitable extinction.

Not even the slightest philanthropy towards Tito's effort then to usher this exploring thing? "Hey we'll give a Dragon as a freebie!"

He's running a business, not a philanthropy.  If he give one of them away, then everybody will be wanting one.  It would be a new entitlement program.  Sheesh.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Bubbinski on 03/01/2013 01:27 am
Now regarding the Jan 2018 launch window: how many days does it last?  Is it for Jan 5 only, or is there a period of days or weeks where they can go?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 03/01/2013 01:29 am
...  and having said that, I still think their approach to life support is EXACTLY how a Mars colony will have to be designed.

Less automation, more brain and hand power.

...

This aspect of the mission, I like very much.

I am in total agreement.  Nice to see that they're following some of my design criteria.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 03/01/2013 01:31 am
A Venus flyby would also be just as inspirational.
I disagree. Venus is a hellhole and there's really nothing to "see" there. A blindingly white, featureless orb that holds no prospects of being visited by a landing mission.

That's probably why the aliens parked one of their ships there.  Figured we'd never find it.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 03/01/2013 01:34 am
If they are late they could make the trip 2 years later.

I don't think so.  According to their software, the next opp is in 2031. blah blah blah

You have not said anything that I did not work out in the first 10 seconds.

Huh?

Erin Burnette CNN survey: 68% said they would go at this point. You can vote yourself and see poll results updated.

I keep saying NSoV.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 03/01/2013 01:38 am
Elon's lack of response is pretty clear IMO.  He needs this like he needs another negative Tesla road review.

The whole point of the Inspiratin Mars idea is, well, inspiration.  Clearly, othere's nothing objective to be gained from sending two people on a free return trip around Mars with barely enough hardware to get back alive. It doesn't advance science, it doesn't advance technology.  It does, however, solve the psychological problem of "we're not ready yet" - and in a big way.

From Tito and friends' point of view, the problem with exploration is lack of public and political ability to support HSF. They think that if they create inspiration, they'll help the cause.  Hence the children and all.

From Elon's point of view, there's no shortage of inspiration, and he thinks that if he gets the technology ready, one step at a time, then the problem is solved.  From his point of view, this is hurried and counter-productive, especially considering the risks.  (Hence no children and education on the SpaceX web site)

Yet he can't publicly shoot them down.  I think he just figured he'll ignore it for a while and see if it goes away.

Crap like this just annoys me.

You're not a mind reader. You don't know what he or anyone else is thinking.

It's been one day FFS and we've already gotten an official comment from SpaceX (via Gwynne Shotwell at the CRS press conf - "we'd love to have them as a customer"), what more do you want?

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ludus on 03/01/2013 01:42 am
Elon's lack of response is pretty clear IMO.  He needs this like he needs another negative Tesla road review.

The whole point of the Inspiratin Mars idea is, well, inspiration.  Clearly, othere's nothing objective to be gained from sending two people on a free return trip around Mars with barely enough hardware to get back alive. It doesn't advance science, it doesn't advance technology.  It does, however, solve the psychological problem of "we're not ready yet" - and in a big way.

From Tito and friends' point of view, the problem with exploration is lack of public and political ability to support HSF. They think that if they create inspiration, they'll help the cause.  Hence the children and all.

From Elon's point of view, there's no shortage of inspiration, and he thinks that if he gets the technology ready, one step at a time, then the problem is solved.  From his point of view, this is hurried and counter-productive, especially considering the risks.  (Hence no children and education on the SpaceX web site)

Yet he can't publicly shoot them down.  I think he just figured he'll ignore it for a while and see if it goes away.

I tend to see the spacex response differently. I wouldn't expect them to be especially supportive of any speculative space venture. This is similar to golden spike or deep space industries http://www.deepspaceindustries.com/ . Spacex is happy to provide launch services at their standard low prices if the new ventures have the coin. I suspect Elon would also say these efforts are evidence that the spacex approach is working as he intended it. I don't think the business model is for Spacex to EVER pay for or subsidize space missions...just to provide launch services at a price point that opens up space to a much larger range of human activity.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: RocketmanUS on 03/01/2013 02:05 am
I don' think life support would be that big a problem.

It is. Water is to be recycled and food is mostly dry goods. That means water recycling is required for survival and it has not yet been achieved at that level as far as I know.


How much water does each crew member need?

When recycling water some of it will be lost in the process. There will have to be more than a two day supply ( they said about every two days they would be reusing the same water.

They will most likely make water from CH4 and O2 and other means.

The water recycling would not be a show stopper.

If they do miss there window an option could be.

Boeing with SEP to send their lander/ascender to Mars surface.
1st to test it out first for a robotic sample return and test ISRU fueling.
2nd as a possible back up to Mars-One cargo lander.
3rd to have as an ascender for a Mars-One crew.

Mars-One to use the EDS and habitation module ( from  Inspiration Mars Foundation ) with a descender of their own. 

So it could be a 4 year delay if they miss the window in 2018 for a 2022 for Mars-One. Team work is better than total loss and waiting till 2031. Also if they do make their window in 2018 then Mars-One could possible still use this in 2022. A win win for Mars exploration.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 03/01/2013 04:36 am
How much water does each crew member need?

When recycling water some of it will be lost in the process. There will have to be more than a two day supply ( they said about every two days they would be reusing the same water.

They will most likely make water from CH4 and O2 and other means.

The water recycling would not be a show stopper.

Basic survival in space is 1.5 L per day, minimum realistic use is 5L per day.  Comfortable use is about 10L per day.  Scaled up for two people over 5001 days that is 1503, 4008, and 8016 L.

Supposedly Mir level water recyling was 80%, ISS 90%.  If we assume 80% then the masses come down to  301, 802 and 1603 L.

Allowing a 20% margin gives us 352, 963, and 1925 L.

So one tonne of water should be adequate.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KelvinZero on 03/01/2013 04:38 am
I think a few other people have said this, but I am actually far more inspired by this if it is fundamentally advertising for a worthwhile lifesupport system.

I don't think we have put near enough effort into this. I want to see closed cycle, practically indefinite life support. The goal is to live out there, not to hold our breath long enough to take a peek.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 03/01/2013 04:40 am
I think a few other people have said this, but I am actually far more inspired by this if it is fundamentally advertising for a worthwhile lifesupport system.

I don't think we have put near enough effort into this. I want to see closed cycle, practically indefinite life support. The goal is to live out there, not to hold our breath long enough to take a peek.

Yep. The non-hype headline for this story is:

  Dennis Tito Funds Long Duration Life Support System.

Now, if only there was any call for non-hyped news.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: RocketmanUS on 03/01/2013 05:25 am
How much water does each crew member need?

When recycling water some of it will be lost in the process. There will have to be more than a two day supply ( they said about every two days they would be reusing the same water.

They will most likely make water from CH4 and O2 and other means.

The water recycling would not be a show stopper.

Basic survival in space is 1.5 L per day, minimum realistic use is 5L per day.  Comfortable use is about 10L per day.  Scaled up for two people over 5001 days that is 1503, 4008, and 8016 L.

Supposedly Mir level water recyling was 80%, ISS 90%.  If we assume 80% then the masses come down to  301, 802 and 1603 L.

Allowing a 20% margin gives us 352, 963, and 1925 L.

So one tonne of water should be adequate.
1L ~ .21997 gallons
10L ~ 2.1997 gallons

10L a day x 501 days = 5,001L x 2 crew members = 10,002L

So about ~2.2 gallons a day per person.

10L with 20% loss per day in recycling means 2L will need to be replace per day per crew member.

2L x 501 days = 1,002L per crew member
2 crew x 1002L = 2,004L

2,004L plus 10% ( added days plus other ) = 2,204.4L

1,000L water ~ 1,000 kg

2,204.4L = 2,204.4 kg

1,000L = 1mł

2,202.2L = 2.202.4mł plus holding tank

Will need more than one tank ( redundancy ).

The recycle system would need to be able to handle 72 hours of waste in 24 hours so if the system were down or more volume in a time period.

How much power is needed to receive back 1 liter?
Was needed on Mir per liter?
Is on ISS per liter?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 03/01/2013 06:38 am
You have not said anything that I did not work out in the first 10 seconds.  According to this mission profile if anything delays launch until February 2018 it is a LOM.

Will Tito really accept a LOM whilst everything is still on the ground?
Or will recover by scrapping the mission profile?  Possible using several Centaurs as an inspace stage.

It's the only way to get the time of flight that low with a free return trajectory, so yes, yes he will. Otherwise, you are doing a 750 day mission, or have to perform a burn at Mars.

A burn at Mars means more mass.  So the big problem becomes getting extra money to pay for it.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 03/01/2013 06:41 am
Elon's lack of response is pretty clear IMO.  He needs this like he needs another negative Tesla road review.

The whole point of the Inspiratin Mars idea is, well, inspiration.  Clearly, othere's nothing objective to be gained from sending two people on a free return trip around Mars with barely enough hardware to get back alive. It doesn't advance science, it doesn't advance technology.  It does, however, solve the psychological problem of "we're not ready yet" - and in a big way.

From Tito and friends' point of view, the problem with exploration is lack of public and political ability to support HSF. They think that if they create inspiration, they'll help the cause.  Hence the children and all.

From Elon's point of view, there's no shortage of inspiration, and he thinks that if he gets the technology ready, one step at a time, then the problem is solved.  From his point of view, this is hurried and counter-productive, especially considering the risks.  (Hence no children and education on the SpaceX web site)

Yet he can't publicly shoot them down.  I think he just figured he'll ignore it for a while and see if it goes away.

Crap like this just annoys me.

You're not a mind reader. You don't know what he or anyone else is thinking.

It's been one day FFS and we've already gotten an official comment from SpaceX (via Gwynne Shotwell at the CRS press conf - "we'd love to have them as a customer"), what more do you want?



Sorry...  I figured not being a mind reader was obvious, and so implicit in any "What Elon thinks" is a giant "In my opinion..."  -  my best guess based on what I perceive is his mindset.

Also, this was in response to someone's comment pointing out the very minimalistic response from SpaceX so far.  Tito and Co are not a bunch of Mars One Photoshop artists.  They have enough cred between them to warrant a more serious response, and if SpaceX was enthusiastic about this, there would have been one.

fair enough?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 03/01/2013 06:47 am
Sorry...  I figured not being a mind reader was obvious, and so implicit in any "What Elon thinks" is a giant "In my opinion..."  -  my best guess based on what I perceive is his mindset.

I think you think your best guess is pretty good.

Quote
Also, this was in response to someone's comment pointing out the very minimalistic response from SpaceX so far.  Tito and Co are not a bunch of Mars One Photoshop artists.  They have enough cred between them to warrant a more serious response, and if SpaceX was enthusiastic about this, there would have been one.

I'd still like you to answer the question: what more do you want?

Is SpaceX supposed to send out approval letters? Maybe assign gold stars?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: sanman on 03/01/2013 07:36 am
How much water does each crew member need?

When recycling water some of it will be lost in the process. There will have to be more than a two day supply ( they said about every two days they would be reusing the same water.

They will most likely make water from CH4 and O2 and other means.

The water recycling would not be a show stopper.

Basic survival in space is 1.5 L per day, minimum realistic use is 5L per day.  Comfortable use is about 10L per day.  Scaled up for two people over 5001 days that is 1503, 4008, and 8016 L.

Supposedly Mir level water recyling was 80%, ISS 90%.  If we assume 80% then the masses come down to  301, 802 and 1603 L.

Allowing a 20% margin gives us 352, 963, and 1925 L.

So one tonne of water should be adequate.
1L ~ .21997 gallons
10L ~ 2.1997 gallons

10L a day x 501 days = 5,001L x 2 crew members = 10,002L

So about ~2.2 gallons a day per person.

10L with 20% loss per day in recycling means 2L will need to be replace per day per crew member.

2L x 501 days = 1,002L per crew member
2 crew x 1002L = 2,004L

2,004L plus 10% ( added days plus other ) = 2,204.4L

1,000L water ~ 1,000 kg

2,204.4L = 2,204.4 kg

1,000L = 1mł

2,202.2L = 2.202.4mł plus holding tank

Will need more than one tank ( redundancy ).

The recycle system would need to be able to handle 72 hours of waste in 24 hours so if the system were down or more volume in a time period.

How much power is needed to receive back 1 liter?
Was needed on Mir per liter?
Is on ISS per liter?

What is the reason for the (2L) loss in recycling?
Why wouldn't you get it all back?

Also, is there any cheap way to add artificial gravity to this mission?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: sanman on 03/01/2013 07:42 am
Crap like this just annoys me.

You're not a mind reader. You don't know what he or anyone else is thinking.

It's been one day FFS and we've already gotten an official comment from SpaceX (via Gwynne Shotwell at the CRS press conf - "we'd love to have them as a customer"), what more do you want?

But cmon, at that Royal Astronautical Society talk Musk did joke that if you tried to travel so far in Dragon, "you'd come back bag" - by which I assume he meant really run-down or wasted.

So it stands to reason that while he believes in being bold, he doesn't believe in suicide missions - especially not when some reasonable effort can make it all avoidable.

I think Tito and his Biodome people are too starry-eyed, and too blindly optimistic in thinking everything will go right, all on the first try. Musk seems like a much more realistic and well-grounded person.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 03/01/2013 07:49 am
Crap like this just annoys me.

You're not a mind reader. You don't know what he or anyone else is thinking.

It's been one day FFS and we've already gotten an official comment from SpaceX (via Gwynne Shotwell at the CRS press conf - "we'd love to have them as a customer"), what more do you want?

But cmon, at that Royal Astronautical Society talk Musk did joke that if you tried to travel so far in Dragon, "you'd come back bag" - by which I assume he meant really run-down or wasted.

So it stands to reason that while he believes in being bold, he doesn't believe in suicide missions - especially not when some reasonable effort can make it all avoidable.

I think Tito and his Biodome people are too starry-eyed, and too blindly optimistic in thinking everything will go right, all on the first try. Musk seems like a much more realistic and well-grounded person.

I don't disagree with you, but I have no idea what your comment has to do with my reply to meeGee. What makes you think Elon has to agree with the personal philosophy of all SpaceX's customers? Just bring cash.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: baddux on 03/01/2013 08:41 am
I think this will not happen in 2018 but I hope that they do it unmanned and 'simulate' the manned mission so that have the capsule temperature, pressure etc so that they could say that "if there were people onboard they would have had a very nice ride". This way they could at least accomplish something and not just waste their money as well as gather a lot of useful information about radiation, capsule endurance and re-entry capability.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 03/01/2013 10:23 am
1L ~ .21997 gallons
10L ~ 2.1997 gallons

10L a day x 501 days = 5,001L x 2 crew members = 10,002L

So about ~2.2 gallons a day per person.

10L with 20% loss per day in recycling means 2L will need to be replace per day per crew member.

2L x 501 days = 1,002L per crew member
2 crew x 1002L = 2,004L

2,004L plus 10% ( added days plus other ) = 2,204.4L

1,000L water ~ 1,000 kg

2,204.4L = 2,204.4 kg

1,000L = 1mł

2,202.2L = 2.202.4mł plus holding tank

Will need more than one tank ( redundancy ).

The recycle system would need to be able to handle 72 hours of waste in 24 hours so if the system were down or more volume in a time period.

How much power is needed to receive back 1 liter?
Was needed on Mir per liter?
Is on ISS per liter?

Don't know what happened with my numbers there, they were in the right order but that was all!  Sorry about that!

Ten litres a day is generous under the circumstances. This is a minimalist mission so 5 is probably adequate.  So 1.2 tonnes with 20% margin.

You don't need to store the waste water, could just be dumped overboard.  No need for large holding tanks (although you could use waste water for shielding).

Larson and Pranke (p557-558) show 0.04 kW per person for water recycling by multi-filtration and another 0.03 kW/p for urine recyling, for a total of 0.07 kW, these can treat 10-25 L per person per day. It would recycle at least 90% of water.

You could play all sorts of trades here, no recycling with survival allocations would be just over 1.5 tonnes for the whole mission, this would equate to a a generaous allowance of 12 L per day with 80% recycling and a 20% margin.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: sanman on 03/01/2013 01:35 pm
I don't disagree with you, but I have no idea what your comment has to do with my reply to meeGee. What makes you think Elon has to agree with the personal philosophy of all SpaceX's customers? Just bring cash.

Nah, every business has to have some ethical principles, and refusing to facilitate a suicide mission should be one of them. SpaceX could be on the recieving end of public backlash if something goes horribly wrong. Worse, there could be a regulatory backlash from politicians, and I don't think Musk is in favor of more regulation.

Another question I'd like to ask, even though it might seem so obvious as to mean it would automatically be addressed, is whether the male-female crew will undergo surgical birth control before embarking on this mission.

If the inevitable happens, then the possibility of pregnancy in space could seriously affect the mission, not to mention the fact that a high-radiation environment could be serious for the fetus.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Jim on 03/01/2013 01:52 pm

Don't know what the odds are but I probably won't be alive to see NASA do it.

Nonsense comment

Why should NASA do it in the first place?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lurker Steve on 03/01/2013 02:07 pm
I don't disagree with you, but I have no idea what your comment has to do with my reply to meeGee. What makes you think Elon has to agree with the personal philosophy of all SpaceX's customers? Just bring cash.

Nah, every business has to have some ethical principles, and refusing to facilitate a suicide mission should be one of them. SpaceX could be on the recieving end of public backlash if something goes horribly wrong. Worse, there could be a regulatory backlash from politicians, and I don't think Musk is in favor of more regulation.

Another question I'd like to ask, even though it might seem so obvious as to mean it would automatically be addressed, is whether the male-female crew will undergo surgical birth control before embarking on this mission.

If the inevitable happens, then the possibility of pregnancy in space could seriously affect the mission, not to mention the fact that a high-radiation environment could be serious for the fetus.

It's a pretty big PR gamble for SpaceX, that's for sure.

Of course, Musk has this vision that a Mission to Mars needs SpaceX, but if something tragic happens, what does that do to his marketing message ?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: bad_astra on 03/01/2013 02:18 pm
The more I look at what numbers exist in the IEEE paper the more it shows just how on the margins this is. I like it. Very risky.

But I cannot see any currently in-development spacecraft being of any use for this, except POSSIBLY Dragon, and even that is in many ways, overbuilt. There just isn't that much mass to play with.

Only two people are going up, and most of the supplies can be stored in the hab/infaltable/rigid thingy module, and eclss certainly will be. Also, I sincerely doubt they will be doing this. The obvious answer is to go with a crv designed only to make the retun into earth's atmosphere, and for that they could have their own built using mold lines with known aerodynamic properties. It only needs to sit two on the way up and back. A barebones Pica heatshield Gemini or Voskhod anyone?

As for crew transfer, it would seem to make sense, despite the extra expence, of transferring crew to ISS commercially and perhaps make the ferry transithappen nearby. Allowing the InspireMars vehicle to loiter for a little while as everything comes together takes away some of the drama of that January launch date, and removes the need for developing or modifying a seperate LAS, when you already have the option of taxiing there via Soyuz or some possible future US vehicle.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 03/01/2013 03:11 pm
Sorry...  I figured not being a mind reader was obvious, and so implicit in any "What Elon thinks" is a giant "In my opinion..."  -  my best guess based on what I perceive is his mindset.

I think you think your best guess is pretty good.
Not a mortal sin, is it?


Quote
Also, this was in response to someone's comment pointing out the very minimalistic response from SpaceX so far.  Tito and Co are not a bunch of Mars One Photoshop artists.  They have enough cred between them to warrant a more serious response, and if SpaceX was enthusiastic about this, there would have been one.

I'd still like you to answer the question: what more do you want?

Is SpaceX supposed to send out approval letters? Maybe assign gold stars?


I don't expect them to do anything...  The possible range of response could have been:

- actively distance themselves from it
- completely ignore it ("no comment")
- barely acknowledge it, and only in response to a question
- issue an independent statement saying "see? if we build it they will indeed come"  (SpaceX focused)
- issue an independent statement extolling the virtue of this project (IM focused)
- send a rep to the presser

They chose #3.  This is not trivial since this is not just another LEO contract.  This could have been perceived as the first credible Mars-related customer.

Hence the discussion.

   
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 03/01/2013 03:15 pm
Crap like this just annoys me.

You're not a mind reader. You don't know what he or anyone else is thinking.

It's been one day FFS and we've already gotten an official comment from SpaceX (via Gwynne Shotwell at the CRS press conf - "we'd love to have them as a customer"), what more do you want?

But cmon, at that Royal Astronautical Society talk Musk did joke that if you tried to travel so far in Dragon, "you'd come back bag" - by which I assume he meant really run-down or wasted.

So it stands to reason that while he believes in being bold, he doesn't believe in suicide missions - especially not when some reasonable effort can make it all avoidable.

I think Tito and his Biodome people are too starry-eyed, and too blindly optimistic in thinking everything will go right, all on the first try. Musk seems like a much more realistic and well-grounded person.

I don't disagree with you, but I have no idea what your comment has to do with my reply to meeGee. What makes you think Elon has to agree with the personal philosophy of all SpaceX's customers? Just bring cash.


k, you don't have to be a mind reader to see that Musk is not in it for the cash...   IF he thinks that this mission is not in the best interest of Mars colonization, then he's in a delicate position.  That'd all.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 03/01/2013 03:18 pm
Wow, so basically you're saying that you expect Elon to be some kind of philanthropic gatekeeper who either attaboys every Mars project that comes along or refuses to sell launches to willing customers because it might threaten his idea of the one-true-path to Mars?

Seriously. It's Tito's project. SpaceX has their own plans.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 03/01/2013 03:45 pm
Wow, so basically you're saying that you expect Elon to be some kind of philanthropic gatekeeper who either attaboys every Mars project that comes along or refuses to sell launches to willing customers because it might threaten his idea of the one-true-path to Mars?

Seriously. It's Tito's project. SpaceX has their own plans.



Where did I say that?   I listed out what they could have done, and noted what they did.  Motives are speculative, and were not on this list...

I think now you're trying to read my mind, but I am in position to tell you that you're getting it wrong....

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 03/01/2013 03:47 pm
Here's something else on your list:

* Not caring about press conferences of non-paying customers.

Money talks, you-know-what walks.

Notice how many Paragon reps were at the press conf? Guess why they were there.


Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/01/2013 03:48 pm
...
Seriously. It's Tito's project. SpaceX has their own plans.
No, EVERY THREAD on NSF must involve SpaceX eventually. It's a /physical law/.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/01/2013 03:55 pm
...
Seriously. It's Tito's project. SpaceX has their own plans.
No, EVERY THREAD on NSF must involve SpaceX eventually. It's a /physical law/.

You mean like "As an NSF discussion grows longer, the probability of somebody mentioning SpaceX or Elon approaches 1."
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 03/01/2013 04:12 pm
You mean like "As an NSF discussion grows longer, the probability of somebody mentioning SpaceX or Elon approaches 1."
Mike Godwin would be proud! 

Er, sorry, that's mindreading.:) Don't hit me, QuantumG

I think Gwynn took the right tack in the prelaunch presser yesterday, essentially saying "we're a launch company, we launch things. For cash. If they have cash we are happy to have them as a customer"

I think getting overly enthusiastic too soon might take SpaceX off-message. They have enough of that now... just from Elon saying things, as it is. He says wild eyed stuff all the time.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 03/01/2013 04:29 pm
You mean like "As an NSF discussion grows longer, the probability of somebody mentioning SpaceX or Elon approaches 1."
Mike Godwin would be proud! 

Er, sorry, that's mindreading.:) Don't hit me, QuantumG

I think Gwynn took the right tack in the prelaunch presser yesterday, essentially saying "we're a launch company, we launch things. For cash. If they have cash we are happy to have them as a customer"

I think getting overly enthusiastic too soon might take SpaceX off-message. They have enough of that now... just from Elon saying things, as it is. He says wild eyed stuff all the time.

btw - I completely agree with that tack.  never said otherwise.  And yeah, time to give this thread back to Tito.  If anyone wants, they can start a thread on the SpaceX board: "The significance, or lack thereof, of SpaceX's somewhat muted reaction to IM's presser."
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: strangequark on 03/01/2013 04:53 pm
A burn at Mars means more mass.  So the big problem becomes getting extra money to pay for it.

That's a little understated. You're talking about adding a requirement for an entirely new stage, using storable propellants, with a high thrust engine that will perform a least one burn, probably two burns. Then, your new return trajectory is likely going to bring you in at a much higher velocity, so you've got to requal and/or redesign your TPS, which is already pretty sporty. That's just the two biggest issues, there will be more. It's a completely different mission, and defeats the purpose of limiting the high-risk, new developments to life support.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: notsorandom on 03/01/2013 05:00 pm
...
Seriously. It's Tito's project. SpaceX has their own plans.
No, EVERY THREAD on NSF must involve SpaceX eventually. It's a /physical law/.
SLS and Orion should be canceled. There now every box has been checked.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 03/01/2013 06:04 pm
...
Seriously. It's Tito's project. SpaceX has their own plans.
No, EVERY THREAD on NSF must involve SpaceX eventually. It's a /physical law/.
SLS and Orion should be canceled. There now every box has been checked.

Not yet.  What about MSR?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 03/01/2013 07:04 pm
...
Seriously. It's Tito's project. SpaceX has their own plans.
No, EVERY THREAD on NSF must involve SpaceX eventually. It's a /physical law/.
SLS and Orion should be canceled. There now every box has been checked.

There's a new box: you must mention 3D printing.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: RocketmanUS on 03/01/2013 07:20 pm
How much water does each crew member need?

When recycling water some of it will be lost in the process. There will have to be more than a two day supply ( they said about every two days they would be reusing the same water.

They will most likely make water from CH4 and O2 and other means.

The water recycling would not be a show stopper.

Basic survival in space is 1.5 L per day, minimum realistic use is 5L per day.  Comfortable use is about 10L per day.  Scaled up for two people over 5001 days that is 1503, 4008, and 8016 L.

Supposedly Mir level water recyling was 80%, ISS 90%.  If we assume 80% then the masses come down to  301, 802 and 1603 L.

Allowing a 20% margin gives us 352, 963, and 1925 L.

So one tonne of water should be adequate.
1L ~ .21997 gallons
10L ~ 2.1997 gallons

10L a day x 501 days = 5,001L x 2 crew members = 10,002L

So about ~2.2 gallons a day per person.

10L with 20% loss per day in recycling means 2L will need to be replace per day per crew member.

2L x 501 days = 1,002L per crew member
2 crew x 1002L = 2,004L

2,004L plus 10% ( added days plus other ) = 2,204.4L

1,000L water ~ 1,000 kg

2,204.4L = 2,204.4 kg

1,000L = 1mł

2,202.2L = 2.202.4mł plus holding tank

Will need more than one tank ( redundancy ).

The recycle system would need to be able to handle 72 hours of waste in 24 hours so if the system were down or more volume in a time period.

How much power is needed to receive back 1 liter?
Was needed on Mir per liter?
Is on ISS per liter?

What is the reason for the (2L) loss in recycling?
Why wouldn't you get it all back?

Also, is there any cheap way to add artificial gravity to this mission?

Artificial gravity? Added risk and cost.

Loss in recycling? Water used it's chemistry changes into other compounds. Would have to change these compounds into water and other. When there is H2 in the recycle process some of it leaks out.

1L ~ .21997 gallons
10L ~ 2.1997 gallons

10L a day x 501 days = 5,001L x 2 crew members = 10,002L

So about ~2.2 gallons a day per person.

10L with 20% loss per day in recycling means 2L will need to be replace per day per crew member.

2L x 501 days = 1,002L per crew member
2 crew x 1002L = 2,004L

2,004L plus 10% ( added days plus other ) = 2,204.4L

1,000L water ~ 1,000 kg

2,204.4L = 2,204.4 kg

1,000L = 1mł

2,202.2L = 2.202.4mł plus holding tank

Will need more than one tank ( redundancy ).

The recycle system would need to be able to handle 72 hours of waste in 24 hours so if the system were down or more volume in a time period.

How much power is needed to receive back 1 liter?
Was needed on Mir per liter?
Is on ISS per liter?

Don't know what happened with my numbers there, they were in the right order but that was all!  Sorry about that!

Ten litres a day is generous under the circumstances. This is a minimalist mission so 5 is probably adequate.  So 1.2 tonnes with 20% margin.

You don't need to store the waste water, could just be dumped overboard.  No need for large holding tanks (although you could use waste water for shielding).

Larson and Pranke (p557-558) show 0.04 kW per person for water recycling by multi-filtration and another 0.03 kW/p for urine recyling, for a total of 0.07 kW, these can treat 10-25 L per person per day. It would recycle at least 90% of water.

You could play all sorts of trades here, no recycling with survival allocations would be just over 1.5 tonnes for the whole mission, this would equate to a a generaous allowance of 12 L per day with 80% recycling and a 20% margin.
If they dump the waste water over board then it would not be recycled and they would have to bring enough water for the whole trip.

If the numbers are right for this trip for two then the volume and mass needed for the water should be OK for the given volume they are looking at for their space craft. Would need to relook at for a crew of four for a one way trip to Mars ( shorter travel time ).
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 03/01/2013 07:21 pm
Oooo.  One more.  One percent for space!
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 03/01/2013 07:32 pm
Ha! However, its been awhile since '1% percent for Space' was brought up. Doesn't mean it wouldn't be a good idea!! (Sez one of the first guys on this forum to push the idea a few years back).
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JasonAW3 on 03/01/2013 07:49 pm
You mean like "As an NSF discussion grows longer, the probability of somebody mentioning SpaceX or Elon approaches 1."
Mike Godwin would be proud! 

Er, sorry, that's mindreading.:) Don't hit me, QuantumG

I think Gwynn took the right tack in the prelaunch presser yesterday, essentially saying "we're a launch company, we launch things. For cash. If they have cash we are happy to have them as a customer"

I think getting overly enthusiastic too soon might take SpaceX off-message. They have enough of that now... just from Elon saying things, as it is. He says wild eyed stuff all the time.

Problem is, he tends to pull of that wild eyed stuff!

Jason
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 03/01/2013 08:24 pm
I think getting overly enthusiastic too soon might take SpaceX off-message. They have enough of that now... just from Elon saying things, as it is. He says wild eyed stuff all the time.

Problem is, he tends to pull of that wild eyed stuff!

Jason

That's more of a feature than a problem. :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 03/01/2013 08:40 pm
...
Seriously. It's Tito's project. SpaceX has their own plans.
No, EVERY THREAD on NSF must involve SpaceX eventually. It's a /physical law/.

You mean like "As an NSF discussion grows longer, the probability of somebody mentioning SpaceX or Elon approaches 1."

It's funny cause it's true. Also, it's ironic that before Falcon 1 Flight 1 no one really bothered all that much with SpaceX - Elon even asked me if I wanted an interview once (TRUE STORY!). Now everyone wants a piece of him, but he's earnt it.

I wonder if this thread will be looked back on in five years time with a cheeky wink, as a ship heads to Mars! Maybe not, but what if! :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ralph Buttigieg on 03/01/2013 08:54 pm
G'day,

There is a chance that the mission could be ready to go but for whatever reason the launch window is missed. Those anyone know what Venus looks like as a flyby target in 2018-20? It could make a good backup target.

ta

Ralph
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/01/2013 09:00 pm
G'day,

There is a chance that the mission could be ready to go but for whatever reason the launch window is missed. Those anyone know what Venus looks like as a flyby target in 2018-20? It could make a good backup target.

ta

Ralph
Someone already asked that.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/01/2013 09:01 pm
BTW, talking about consumables management...

There's an interesting advantage in food metabolism. The hydrogen in the food when the food (and air) is metabolized gets turned into water, which means the food mass can help with the overall water budget.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Patchouli on 03/02/2013 04:26 am
How much water does each crew member need?

When recycling water some of it will be lost in the process. There will have to be more than a two day supply ( they said about every two days they would be reusing the same water.

They will most likely make water from CH4 and O2 and other means.

The water recycling would not be a show stopper.

Basic survival in space is 1.5 L per day, minimum realistic use is 5L per day.  Comfortable use is about 10L per day.  Scaled up for two people over 5001 days that is 1503, 4008, and 8016 L.

Supposedly Mir level water recyling was 80%, ISS 90%.  If we assume 80% then the masses come down to  301, 802 and 1603 L.

Allowing a 20% margin gives us 352, 963, and 1925 L.

So one tonne of water should be adequate.

Going with a simpler system and accepting a 20% loss probably would be wise as some of the water reclamation systems on ISS are pretty fickle and you wouldn't want to depend on them far from Earth.
The water can do double duty as a radiation shield for the solar storm shelter.

I wonder would it be possible to fly this mission with a modified DOS based station module like a Mir core?

Though from a mass trade off stand point going with a variant of a flown Bigelow design might be the best.

By then Sundancer and the BA330 should have some flight experience and Dragon lab may have flown some long missions as well.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MickQ on 03/02/2013 08:27 am
Pedal operated pumps for moving air and water around could double as crew exercise equipment.  Same could go for power generation as a back-up.

Mick.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 03/02/2013 10:56 am
If they dump the waste water over board then it would not be recycled and they would have to bring enough water for the whole trip.

Obviously I was not clear.  By waste water I am referring to the residual left after recycling which can't be processed, essentially a saline sludge, between 10 and 20% of the total.  You can either dump it or store it.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 03/02/2013 10:58 am
BTW, talking about consumables management...

There's an interesting advantage in food metabolism. The hydrogen in the food when the food (and air) is metabolized gets turned into water, which means the food mass can help with the overall water budget.

Indeed we do, the amount is small though (0.35 L per day according to Weiland's 1994 summary).

Pity humans are not kangeroo rats!
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 03/02/2013 01:25 pm
G'day,

There is a chance that the mission could be ready to go but for whatever reason the launch window is missed. Those anyone know what Venus looks like as a flyby target in 2018-20? It could make a good backup target.

Someone already asked that.

Here's a bit more detail.  There are a number of Venus flyby missions available over time. But a *cough* Venereal *cough* flyby would be a completely different set of orbital characteristics.  What these guys propose is based on the adage, "what goes up, must come down".  That's what "free return"* means. 

One of the challenges they face is indeed that relatively narrow launch window, because the planetary alignments are crucial for the success of the mission.  Read up on Larson & Pranke (http://www.amazon.com/Human-Spaceflight-Mission-Analysis-Technology/dp/007236811X).

L&P does not discuss the trajectory that Tito and all propose to use.  Patel and all discovered this relatively new trajectory:

Moonish R. Patel, James M. Longuski, and Jon A. Sims, "Mars Free Return Trajectories," Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, vol. 35, no. 3, pp. 350-354, May–June 1998.

*(BTW, I knew that all along, but for some reason, I kept adding return delta-vee, since I had overlooked the term "free" earlier.)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Oli on 03/02/2013 02:13 pm
Quote
Question is about funding.

"No expectation of funding from NASA, but we'll sell them data, and we'll charge them as much as we can get away with" - Tito.

Another reference to public fundraising, citing Endeavour's display in California.

Other revenue streams: Media rights. Sponsorship. Industry. "This is a one shot deal".

Regarding sponsorship and media: The most boring part of any mars mission is the transfer to mars, which makes up 99.9% of this mission. I don't see a lot in a mars flyby that could excite a wider audience. Remember numerous vehicles have already landed on the planet, sent pictures etc.

I cannot judge how valuable the data for nasa is, but afaik they already have a space station up and running in orbit. Was is lacking is the radiation.

So call me a skeptic, anybody thinks this will cost below 1bn, all inclusive?


Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 03/02/2013 03:44 pm
So call me a skeptic, anybody thinks this will cost below 1bn, all inclusive?

A lot depends on the LV and how well the ECLSS development goes.

There are a lot of unknowns (although they are generally 'known unknowns') and, as Chris has pointed out before, not even NASA has seriously looked into answering a lot of these questions.

It could end up cheaper but a lot of dice throws would have to fall in their favour.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 03/02/2013 03:59 pm
Quote
Question is about funding.

"No expectation of funding from NASA, but we'll sell them data, and we'll charge them as much as we can get away with" - Tito.

Another reference to public fundraising, citing Endeavour's display in California.

Other revenue streams: Media rights. Sponsorship. Industry. "This is a one shot deal".

Regarding sponsorship and media: The most boring part of any mars mission is the transfer to mars, which makes up 99.9% of this mission. I don't see a lot in a mars flyby that could excite a wider audience. Remember numerous vehicles have already landed on the planet, sent pictures etc.

I cannot judge how valuable the data for nasa is, but afaik they already have a space station up and running in orbit. Was is lacking is the radiation.

So call me a skeptic, anybody thinks this will cost below 1bn, all inclusive?


99.9% is a bit high...

Within 500 days, there will be 4 exciting events:  Launch, Venus, Mars, and Reentry.   Each will have maybe 3 days of hype leading in, and 2 leading out? At least?   That's already 20 days out of 500.

Add some "special occasions"  (two birthdays, an anniversary, some holiday dinners, etc) and some other manufactured days of interest, and you have about 10% action.

Better than football!
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 03/02/2013 04:29 pm
Launch, Venus, Mars, and Reentry.
No Venus fly-by in Tito's plans.

(Or maybe they are changing that, error 404 for the paper on the foundation page??)

Quote
Better than football!

Probably more than a billion football fans would disagree  :-\
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/02/2013 04:56 pm
One thing that would be very good from a media point of view would be to carry a number of small imaging satellites like the Arkyd 100 from planetary resources. With a spacecraft with a telescope on board you could do some stunning visuals: the main spacecraft with earth or mars in the background, even when pretty far away from earth/mars.

Such spacecraft would also be quite useful for visual inspection in case of problems.

Quote
Question is about funding.

"No expectation of funding from NASA, but we'll sell them data, and we'll charge them as much as we can get away with" - Tito.

Another reference to public fundraising, citing Endeavour's display in California.

Other revenue streams: Media rights. Sponsorship. Industry. "This is a one shot deal".

Regarding sponsorship and media: The most boring part of any mars mission is the transfer to mars, which makes up 99.9% of this mission. I don't see a lot in a mars flyby that could excite a wider audience. Remember numerous vehicles have already landed on the planet, sent pictures etc.

Every high school student can fly a balloon with a smartphone to the stratosphere and take some pictures. Nevertheless there was considerable media interest when Felix Baumgärtner jumped out of a stratospheric balloon. It makes a huge difference for human interest if humans are involved. What is so surprising about that?

Quote
So call me a skeptic, anybody thinks this will cost below 1bn, all inclusive?

If you think that spacex prices are realistic, there is no reason it should cost a billion. Two falcons (one F9, one FH) and an earth departure stage (probably based on a falcon 9 second stage) would do the job.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Oli on 03/02/2013 05:43 pm
Quote from: rklaehn
One thing that would be very good from a media point of view would be to carry a number of small imaging satellites

That's a neat idea.

Quote from: rklaehn
Nevertheless there was considerable media interest when Felix Baumgärtner jumped out of a stratospheric balloon.

Yeah but in terms of cost its a few hundred thousands vs a few hundred millions. If they want to go down the mars one route they should pimp their mission a bit, doing a spacewalk or sth similar. If only space wasn't so empty :).

Quote from: rklaehn
If you think that spacex prices are realistic, there is no reason it should cost a billion. Two falcons (one F9, one FH) and an earth departure stage (probably based on a falcon 9 second stage) would do the job.

As already has been mentioned in this thread: A dragon which can do reentry from mars won't exist without additional funding (I thought orion is being built for that purpose). Neither will the foreseen life support system, radiation shelter. The inflatable bigelow will launch in 2016, but will it be adequate for a 500 day mars mission?

As it stand all this must be developed for only one mission. Don't you think that ONE mission will become rather costly? In addition there are no test missions planned, it must all work at first try in 4 years at a fixed and given "date". Good luck with that.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Bubbinski on 03/02/2013 05:56 pm
Is there a possibility of them being able to test some parts of their life support system on ISS before they go?  And are there going to be any more 500 day isolation experiments (a la Mars 500) with smaller living spaces, staffed by couples?

Anyway one thing I hope the crew gets to do if they fly this mission would be to look at earth as a blue point of light from Mars, get pictures, share their impressions of that.  The first people ever to look at earth as just a point of light.  That would really be something.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 03/02/2013 06:09 pm
Is there a possibility of them being able to test some parts of their life support system on ISS before they go?  And are there going to be any more 500 day isolation experiments (a la Mars 500) with smaller living spaces, staffed by couples?
{snip}

To use the ISS the life support equipment being tested would have to be launched within about 2 years.  All cargo going to the ISS in the next 2-3 years has already been defined, particularly large items.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 03/02/2013 06:19 pm
A burn at Mars means more mass.  So the big problem becomes getting extra money to pay for it.

That's a little understated. You're talking about adding a requirement for an entirely new stage, using storable propellants, with a high thrust engine that will perform a least one burn, probably two burns. Then, your new return trajectory is likely going to bring you in at a much higher velocity, so you've got to requal and/or redesign your TPS, which is already pretty sporty. That's just the two biggest issues, there will be more. It's a completely different mission, and defeats the purpose of limiting the high-risk, new developments to life support.

They are the sort of over budget items I was expecting.

What is needed for the similar 2022 mission is worth reviewing.  Dennis Tito may have sufficient time to prepare for that.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 03/02/2013 06:26 pm
Launch, Venus, Mars, and Reentry.
No Venus fly-by in Tito's plans.

(Or maybe they are changing that, error 404 for the paper on the foundation page??)

Quote
Better than football!

Probably more than a billion football fans would disagree  :-\

I meant by % of action/time - I think that's measurable....
   oh - and there's no off-season!

As for Venus - are you sure?  I thought that was the whole reason for the 2018/2031 dates - but I might have jumped the gun here.


I think the communication/entertainment aspect of this mission will be significant because there's really not much else to it.  (not necessarily in a bad sense - it's just what it is)


Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 03/02/2013 06:33 pm
As for Venus - are you sure?  I thought that was the whole reason for the 2018/2031 dates - but I might have jumped the gun here.

Pretty much, see image posted earlier (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31215.msg1018224#msg1018224). The 16 15 year cycle here is probably due eccentricity of planets' orbits, they won't align nicely for free return with Mars at it's perigee more often. Any resident orbital expert, please confirm or correct.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/02/2013 06:56 pm
One thing that would be very good from a media point of view would be to carry a number of small imaging satellites like the Arkyd 100 from planetary resources. With a spacecraft with a telescope on board you could do some stunning visuals: the main spacecraft with earth or mars in the background, even when pretty far away from earth/mars.

Such spacecraft would also be quite useful for visual inspection in case of problems.
...
Don't need to be as big as an Arkyd 100. IKAROS had some much smaller ones it ejected to examine deployment of the solar sail: http://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2010/2552.html
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/ikaros-dcam.htm

No reason you couldn't make some much smaller (and cheaper) yet. Just disposable little guys that you deploy when you want an external view.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/02/2013 07:29 pm
One thing that would be very good from a media point of view would be to carry a number of small imaging satellites like the Arkyd 100 from planetary resources. With a spacecraft with a telescope on board you could do some stunning visuals: the main spacecraft with earth or mars in the background, even when pretty far away from earth/mars.

Such spacecraft would also be quite useful for visual inspection in case of problems.
...
Don't need to be as big as an Arkyd 100. IKAROS had some much smaller ones it ejected to examine deployment of the solar sail: http://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2010/2552.html
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/ikaros-dcam.htm

No reason you couldn't make some much smaller (and cheaper) yet. Just disposable little guys that you deploy when you want an external view.

Sure. That would be even better.

Having a few spacecraft with a telescope with large magnification would be nice though to do some spectacular shots of the spacecraft with some celestial object (mars, earth, earth/moon, phobos, the sun..) in the background. I know you could do the same with CGI, but in a world where everything can be rendered on a computer, having real pictures has a certain attraction.

By the way: IKAROS was an absolutely amazing mission. The first fully solid state spacecraft.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/02/2013 07:44 pm
Quote from: rklaehn
Nevertheless there was considerable media interest when Felix Baumgärtner jumped out of a stratospheric balloon.

Yeah but in terms of cost its a few hundred thousands vs a few hundred millions. If they want to go down the mars one route they should pimp their mission a bit, doing a spacewalk or sth similar. If only space wasn't so empty :).

I think you underestimate the cost of red bull stratos. The cost was in the range of 50 million, so just one decimal order of magnitude less than a mars flyby.

And as I already mentioned, larry ellison spent 400 million USD on a sailing yacht to win the americas cup. So spending half a billion on something without any obvious use other than PR value is not unheard of.

Quote
As already has been mentioned in this thread: A dragon which can do reentry from mars won't exist without additional funding (I thought orion is being built for that purpose). Neither will the foreseen life support system, radiation shelter. The inflatable bigelow will launch in 2016, but will it be adequate for a 500 day mars mission?

I think elon/spacex has a very large interest in demonstrating reentry from hyperbolic velocity. And according to him, the dragon heat shield is already sized for significantly higher velocity reentry than LEO.

Besides, the mission is proposing to do aerocapture, which will split the reentry into two parts: first decelerate from hyperbolic velocity to a highly elliptic orbit, then do the actual reentry.

Bigelow BEAM supposedly has a better radiation environment than aluminium modules, because the light atomic mass skin does not create as many secondary particles when hit by high energy cosmic radiation. That is one thing they will try to confirm while the module is at ISS.

Quote
As it stand all this must be developed for only one mission. Don't you think that ONE mission will become rather costly? In addition there are no test missions planned, it must all work at first try in 4 years at a fixed and given "date". Good luck with that.

They will have to piggyback on other technology development as much as possible, and maybe share costs with other people that want to do beyond LEO exploration. Paragon is doing work for commercial crew companies. Falcon Heavy might get a better upper stage because spacex wants to capture the most expensive DOD sats. None of this has to be paid by inspiration mars.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Moe Grills on 03/02/2013 08:03 pm
  I've got to admire Dennis Tito's guts.
He may end up with egg on his face; totally humiliated if
nothing comes of his plans by 2018.

The press will crucify him if his plans end up pipe dreams,
with little hardware to show for it.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Orbiter on 03/02/2013 08:13 pm
  I've got to admire Dennis Tito's guts.
He may end up with egg on his face; totally humiliated if
nothing comes of his plans by 2018.

The press will crucify him if his plans end up pipe dreams,
with little hardware to show for it.

And on the other hand, if he does end up going to Mars...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Moe Grills on 03/02/2013 08:20 pm
  I've got to admire Dennis Tito's guts.
He may end up with egg on his face; totally humiliated if
nothing comes of his plans by 2018.

The press will crucify him if his plans end up pipe dreams,
with little hardware to show for it.

And on the other hand, if he does end up going to Mars...

Should I save up, archive your reply on my hard-drive until 2018 to see if
your wishes do or do not come true?  ;D
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Oli on 03/02/2013 09:12 pm
Quote from: rklaehn
I think you underestimate the cost of red bull stratos. The cost was in the range of 50 million, so just one decimal order of magnitude less than a mars flyby.

And as I already mentioned, larry ellison spent 400 million USD on a sailing yacht to win the americas cup. So spending half a billion on something without any obvious use other than PR value is not unheard of.

Ok, but red bull is special. Its the first company I would call if I had human spaceflight plans.

Billionaires, sure, always an option. If you find another one who wants to fly by mars...I wouldn't bet on them making only a contribution, they prefer to be in the driver's seat.

Anyway, lets hope you are right  :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: hyper_snyper on 03/02/2013 09:22 pm
  I've got to admire Dennis Tito's guts.
He may end up with egg on his face; totally humiliated if
nothing comes of his plans by 2018.

The press will crucify him if his plans end up pipe dreams,
with little hardware to show for it.

No they won't.  If it doesn't happen no one will notice and it will be added to the list of failed space ventures.  Which is a long list.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: john smith 19 on 03/02/2013 09:34 pm
That's a friendly greeting in Yorkshire! ;) The point was a number of people - and usually people like me - would say "Oh, this isn't going to happen. Good news is NASA plan to do it". Well NASA's planned to do it for decades now.....and the ESD DRM status for Mars is "TBA", so that's where that came from.
Well this might encourage something to shake loose regarding a DRM.

This mission seems about as "stripped down" as it's possible to go (no propulsive manoeuvres outside Earth orbit, exploiting specific gravitational features etc)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 03/02/2013 09:46 pm
Is there a possibility of them being able to test some parts of their life support system on ISS before they go?  And are there going to be any more 500 day isolation experiments (a la Mars 500) with smaller living spaces, staffed by couples?
{snip}

To use the ISS the life support equipment being tested would have to be launched within about 2 years.  All cargo going to the ISS in the next 2-3 years has already been defined, particularly large items.

Money talks. So does "importance" and while that's the plan now, who knows... I would not rule out tests there. But I also don't expect them.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 03/03/2013 07:04 am
Is there a possibility of them being able to test some parts of their life support system on ISS before they go?  And are there going to be any more 500 day isolation experiments (a la Mars 500) with smaller living spaces, staffed by couples?
{snip}

To use the ISS the life support equipment being tested would have to be launched within about 2 years.  All cargo going to the ISS in the next 2-3 years has already been defined, particularly large items.

Money talks. So does "importance" and while that's the plan now, who knows... I would not rule out tests there. But I also don't expect them.

The problem with this mission is time.  A 501 day mission needs a 501 day test of the life support.

The alternative to the ISS is a Bigelow/Thin_Red_Line module.  The mission is probably using a Thin Red Line module.  To be usable as a spacestation the Bigelow modules need a long term life support system.

There is another spacestation.  The Excalibur Almaz spacestation.  Paragon were developing a life support system for them.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 03/03/2013 03:59 pm
I'd be dubious of any Excalabur Almaz soviet space junk being used. They are trying to have a total vehicle mass of 10 tonnes. A Dragon with the life support equipment plus something like the Cygnus pressurized module with supplies is just about that. Add a small (BEAM-sized) inflatable for extra space and you're there...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 03/03/2013 04:16 pm
Oh, I just thought of an even been way to do that: Use a modified Cygnus as the Logistics/Power module. Launch it ahead of time on an Antares, and then launch a Falcon Heavy with the Dragon to rendezvous and dock with it. That allows you to do a relatively cheap two-launch mission, and without any tricky prop transfer.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/03/2013 04:33 pm
Oh, I just thought of an even been way to do that: Use a modified Cygnus as the Logistics/Power module. Launch it ahead of time on an Antares, and then launch a Falcon Heavy with the Dragon to rendezvous and dock with it. That allows you to do a relatively cheap two-launch mission, and without any tricky prop transfer.

Unfortunately, even if you use the falcon heavy to put an earth departure stage with a very efficient non-hydogen upper stage into LEO, you are unable to send enough mass to the given trajectory. With a LH2 upper stage like a centaur it might work, but that just won't happen, period.

The paper has some very, very optimistic mass assumptions. And I am not even talking about the ECLSS. For example I did not see any mass budget for propellant for midflight course corrections. Also, no mass estimate for the additional pressurized volume etc. No mass for the beefed up heatshield, no margin whatsoever, ...

The only way I can see this working is if you increase the mass budget quite a bit. More mass means more spares, less advanced ECLSS, etc, all of which makes the mission more likely to succeed.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 03/03/2013 05:30 pm
I think a Falcon Heavy may just be able to send 10 tons on that trajectory. It seems that is what they are counting on.

But 10 ton is too optimistic on mass, I agree. They would be well advised to increase that to 13 tons. The whole stack could then be lifted with a Falcon 9. An empty Falcon Heavy should have enough propellant left in its upper stage to send those 13 tons on their way. It would require though to attach the stack in orbit to that Falcon Heavy upper stage. If they meet their 10 ton target they can still switch to a simpler one launch mission.

They will need that efficient water recycling ECLSS though or they have to increase their mass again by a lot of water.

Edit: I agree too, that a HydroLOX upper stage on Falcon Heavy won't happen.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 03/03/2013 06:10 pm
Edit: I agree too, that a HydroLOX upper stage on Falcon Heavy won't happen.

Why not?  1) How far away is SpaceX from developing one?  2) why can't they fly a different upper stage such as a Centaur?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 03/03/2013 06:20 pm
Edit: I agree too, that a HydroLOX upper stage on Falcon Heavy won't happen.

Why not?  1) How far away is SpaceX from developing one?  2) why can't they fly a different upper stage such as a Centaur?

1) They aren't planning on developing one at all at the moment; their next-gen upper stage appears to be a staged-combustion Methane/LOX reaction engine called 'Raptor'; there has been no mention of a Hydrolox upper stage for some time (several years) and even then it was in a non-official presentation, not a formal company announcement;

2) Spacecraft are not LEGOs.  Upper stages tend to carry the flight electronics and each LV has its own unique and generally-incompatible data and power connector buses.  So you can't swap them around easily, if at all.  You only have to look at the hoops Boeing are having to jump through to turn the Delta-IV Cryogenic Upper Stage into the iCPS for the SLS to see how difficult the transfer can be.

Yes, you could build a Centaur as a stand-alone spacecraft and launch it on top of any LV you like but you would also have to pay LockMart beaucoup bucks in advance to get them to develop and build it for you and you would need several years' lead time too.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 03/03/2013 06:50 pm
Edit: I agree too, that a HydroLOX upper stage on Falcon Heavy won't happen.

Why not?  1) How far away is SpaceX from developing one?  2) why can't they fly a different upper stage such as a Centaur?
.....

Yes, you could build a Centaur as a stand-alone spacecraft and launch it on top of any LV you like but you would also have to pay LockMart beaucoup bucks in advance to get them to develop and build it for you and you would need several years' lead time too.

No, you could not. The SpaceX pad is not built to handle LH. Upgrading it would cost big bucks again.

I suspect, for the price of one Centaur plus upgrading the pad for LH they could almost build their Methane SC upper stage engine. But not in time for this mission.

If a Centaur would be needed they should rather get their Launch Vehicle from ULA.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: SpacexULA on 03/03/2013 07:03 pm
If a Centaur would be needed they should rather get their Launch Vehicle from ULA.

Which would make a compelling case for a 2 launch system, a Falcon Heavy to launch the Capsule and Crew Module, Atlas 551 to launch the Centaur EDS.

This has the advantages of allowing both rockets to be launched within 24 hours of each other, from the same launch facility, and it speaks to the strength of both organizations.

Atlas/Centaur is not cheap, but a whole lot cheaper than a new stage development program. 

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/03/2013 07:10 pm
I think a Falcon Heavy may just be able to send 10 tons on that trajectory. It seems that is what they are counting on.

Not without an upper stage. The falcon heavy payload to GTO is 12t, from the website. And the given trajectory requires ~2km/s more delta-v than GTO. So no, you wont be able to send 10 tons.

In any case, even with the optimistic ECLSS assumptions 10t is not enough. You will need some extra mass for extra habitable volume and propellant for midcourse corrections.

Of course a new upper stage would completely change this picture. But even the spacex mars mission study "red dragon" for the same mars launch window in 2018 assumes a falcon heavy without a methane upper stage.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 03/03/2013 07:14 pm
Does anything speaks again this launch architecture?

- Start a the Capsule and Crew with Falcon 9 or Atlas 5
- Crew checks out all systems
- Delta 4 Heavy starts with a iCPS and an attached mission module (Cygnus/ISS derived)
- Crew capsule docks with mission module and iCPS
- iCPS launch the stack to Mars

Greetings,
Daniel
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/03/2013 07:17 pm
If a Centaur would be needed they should rather get their Launch Vehicle from ULA.

Which would make a compelling case for a 2 launch system, a Falcon Heavy to launch the Capsule and Crew Module, Atlas 551 to launch the Centaur EDS.

This has the advantages of allowing both rockets to be launched within 24 hours of each other, from the same launch facility, and it speaks to the strength of both organizations.

Atlas/Centaur is not cheap, but a whole lot cheaper than a new stage development program. 

I don't think this will work. A fully fueled centaur could send a ~10t spacecraft to the required velocity. But when you launch a centaur on an Atlas V 551, it will be half empty by the time it reaches LEO. You would need to either increase the tank size or have a second centaur as a payload of an atlas V 551, both of which would cost you a lot of money.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/03/2013 07:18 pm
Does anything speaks again this launch architecture?

- Start a the Capsule and Crew with Falcon 9 or Atlas 5
- Crew checks out all systems
- Delta 4 Heavy starts with a iCPS and an attached mission module (Cygnus/ISS derived)
- Crew capsule docks with mission module and iCPS
- iCPS launch the stack to Mars

Greetings,
Daniel

What's an iCPS? Some kind of upper stage? A google search only gave international carnivorous plant society.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MikeAtkinson on 03/03/2013 07:19 pm
The paper has some very, very optimistic mass assumptions. And I am not even talking about the ECLSS. For example I did not see any mass budget for propellant for midflight course corrections. Also, no mass estimate for the additional pressurized volume etc. No mass for the beefed up heatshield, no margin whatsoever, ...

My estimate is:

Dragon (dry) - 5 tonnes [extra heat shield, enhanced avionics]
Trunk - 2 tonnes [3x solar array area, enhanced radiators]
Inflatable hab - 4 tonnes
Crew + personal items - 0.2 tonnes
ECLSS + supplies - 5.5 tonnes
Fuel - 2 tonnes [2 midcourse corrections, terminal guidance + attitude control]

Total  18.7 tonnes

It looks to me like a 2x FH mission.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 03/03/2013 07:20 pm
Does anything speaks again this launch architecture?

- Start a the Capsule and Crew with Falcon 9 or Atlas 5
- Crew checks out all systems
- Delta 4 Heavy starts with a iCPS and an attached mission module (Cygnus/ISS derived)
- Crew capsule docks with mission module and iCPS
- iCPS launch the stack to Mars

Greetings,
Daniel

What's an iCPS? Some kind of upper stage? A google search only gave international carnivorous plant society.

Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage of SLS.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: SpacexULA on 03/03/2013 07:22 pm
If a Centaur would be needed they should rather get their Launch Vehicle from ULA.

Which would make a compelling case for a 2 launch system, a Falcon Heavy to launch the Capsule and Crew Module, Atlas 551 to launch the Centaur EDS.

This has the advantages of allowing both rockets to be launched within 24 hours of each other, from the same launch facility, and it speaks to the strength of both organizations.

Atlas/Centaur is not cheap, but a whole lot cheaper than a new stage development program. 

I don't think this will work. A fully fueled centaur could send a ~10t spacecraft to the required velocity. But when you launch a centaur on an Atlas V 551, it will be half empty by the time it reaches LEO. You would need to either increase the tank size or have a second centaur as a payload of an atlas V 551, both of which would cost you a lot of money.

Good point.  :/ Guess I was wrong.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/03/2013 07:30 pm
The paper has some very, very optimistic mass assumptions. And I am not even talking about the ECLSS. For example I did not see any mass budget for propellant for midflight course corrections. Also, no mass estimate for the additional pressurized volume etc. No mass for the beefed up heatshield, no margin whatsoever, ...

My estimate is:

Dragon (dry) - 5 tonnes [extra heat shield, enhanced avionics]
Trunk - 2 tonnes [3x solar array area, enhanced radiators]
Inflatable hab - 4 tonnes
Crew + personal items - 0.2 tonnes
ECLSS + supplies - 5.5 tonnes
Fuel - 2 tonnes [2 midcourse corrections, terminal guidance + attitude control]

Total  18.7 tonnes

It looks to me like a 2x FH mission.

I think 4 tons for an inflatable hab is too high. And you don't need 2 tons for midcourse corrections. But it's nice to have some margin, so the mass estimate is a lot more realistic than what was given in the paper.

Two FH would work, provided you have some kind of upper stage. Without an upper stage, even 2xFH won't do it.

Does anything speaks again this launch architecture?

- Start a the Capsule and Crew with Falcon 9 or Atlas 5
- Crew checks out all systems
- Delta 4 Heavy starts with a iCPS and an attached mission module (Cygnus/ISS derived)
- Crew capsule docks with mission module and iCPS
- iCPS launch the stack to Mars

Greetings,
Daniel

What's an iCPS? Some kind of upper stage? A google search only gave international carnivorous plant society.

Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage of SLS.

That might work from a delta-v point of view, but not from the politics: if you are using a part of the SLS launch vehicle, you are making this essentially a NASA mission. So it would have to be safe enough for NASA standards. Which can't be done in 2018, if ever. Not to mention that the cost would be absolutely prohibitive for a non-government entity. Even the US government can only afford to fly SLS hardware once every two years.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 03/03/2013 07:34 pm
That might work from a delta-v point of view, but not from the politics: if you are using a part of the SLS launch vehicle, you are making this essentially a NASA mission. So it would have to be safe enough for NASA standards. Which can't be done in 2018, if ever. Not to mention that the cost would be absolutely prohibitive for a non-government entity. Even the US government can only afford to fly SLS hardware once every two years.

Don't think so, the iCPS should be available to every paying customer by Boeing. Or some sort of it. But of course, there are tons of political obstacles to move away.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 03/03/2013 07:44 pm
Does anything speaks again this launch architecture?

- Start a the Capsule and Crew with Falcon 9 or Atlas 5
- Crew checks out all systems
- Delta 4 Heavy starts with a iCPS and an attached mission module (Cygnus/ISS derived)
- Crew capsule docks with mission module and iCPS
- iCPS launch the stack to Mars

D4H puts 'only' 22.5mt payload to LEO (wiki), not enough for kickstage to propel 10mt to the Mars trajectory (IIRC dv ~4.8km/s). Even fully fueled 5m D4H upper stage (30.7mt wet, 3.5mt dry) would throw 'only' 11mt from 7.8km/s LEO. Throwing the capsule/crew to higher energy initial orbit might help some, does it help enough, dunno.

I'd try to put the SC/crew + H2kickstage all up with one FH, but that would mean lots of integration/pad work.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 03/03/2013 08:00 pm
The paper has some very, very optimistic mass assumptions. And I am not even talking about the ECLSS. For example I did not see any mass budget for propellant for midflight course corrections. Also, no mass estimate for the additional pressurized volume etc. No mass for the beefed up heatshield, no margin whatsoever, ...


My estimate is:

Dragon (dry) - 5 tonnes [extra heat shield, enhanced avionics]
Trunk - 2 tonnes [3x solar array area, enhanced radiators]
Inflatable hab - 4 tonnes
Crew + personal items - 0.2 tonnes
ECLSS + supplies - 5.5 tonnes
Fuel - 2 tonnes [2 midcourse corrections, terminal guidance + attitude control]

Total  18.7 tonnes

It looks to me like a 2x FH mission.



I agree, their mass estimate is very, very optimistic.  But I assume they have done their homework and so your estimate may be a bit high. That's why I suggested to start with 13 tons, ~ the lifting capacity of Falcon 9.

Heatshield, no or very little extra weight. Elon Musk has said the shield is good for reentry from Mars, but that may be too optimistic. They are trying to optimize the method of reentry.

Solar panels. No need for bigger and heavier. More efficient than the cheap ones they use for LEO should be enough. They are designed for LEO, with only 50% sun exposure.  They would still produce almost their nominal output even at Mars with 100% exposure.

Enhanced radiators, yes, sun exposure at Venus distance from the sun was always one of my main concerns. Don't know how much that would increas the trunk weight. Hopefully less than you calculated.

Fuel for midflight corrections. The standard fuel load of Dragon should be enough. 1 ton, not 2.

The inflatable hab, 4 ton is way much, 2 ton should be good. They obviously calculate less than 2 with their 10 ton estimate and they have got some figures to work with. I think their weight figure is in their documents.

Crew + personal items - 0.2 tonnes
ECLSS + supplies - 5.5 tonnes
Those two sound good to me.

Speculation is fun.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MikeAtkinson on 03/03/2013 08:12 pm
I think 4 tons for an inflatable hab is too high.

The inflatable hab would include at least:

- pressure shell for 25m^3 of volume (which will be about 2 tonnes)
- docking [berthing?] adapter
- fans and lighting + cabling for them.
- power and control/monitoring cabling for ECLSS
- fittings + restraints for ECLSS, supplies and spares
+ probably lots of other things I haven't thought of.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: kkattula on 03/03/2013 08:18 pm
Looks like they need to push at least 14 to 15 tonnes thorugh TMI. That means you need 55 tonnes  in LEO for a hydroloz departure stage or 100 tonnes for a hypergolic propellant departure stage.

Centaur and Delta IV US are both too small, it would require two of them. Even the proposed iCPS is too small.

IF they could get SpaceX on board, I'd suggest having them develop a 43 tonne, hypergolic EDS using Falcon tankage, super-draco engines, and Dragon avionics and RCS.

Launch two of them on FHs, one with a small habitat, and one with a Dragon. Dock in LEO (Dragon to Hab). Fire one EDS to start TMI. When depleted: stage, flip around 180 degrees and fire the second EDS to complete TMI.

Shouldn't cost more than $500m, possibly a bit less.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MikeAtkinson on 03/03/2013 08:28 pm
I agree, their mass estimate is very, very optimistic.  But I assume they have done their homework and so your estimate may be a bit high. That's why I suggested to start with 13 tons, ~ the lifting capacity of Falcon 9.

No, we need to start with what they say!

Dragon at reentry 5 tonnes (i.e no trunk, but which presumably includes the crew)
ECLSS, supplies & spares 5.5 tonnes

Then add in the things they have not stated
- trunk
- hab
- fuel

-------------

About the fuel, it needs to  include allowances for
- maneuvering in LEO, presumably Dragon will have to dock with the hab as the hab will be too heavy for the LAS.
- midcourse to Mars
- terminal guidance at Mars
- midcourse back to Earth
- terminal guidance at Earth
- reentry
- powered landing, if that is standard for Dragon at that time
- attitude control for the entire flight
+ generous allowance

Remember, I'm guestimating about twice the mass of the current Dragon for the entire stack, so the twice the fuel would be required for many of these.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/03/2013 08:33 pm
A hydrogen upper stage is sufficiently compelling that SpaceX may want to develop one. It would absolutely crush every other launch vehicle to C3=0, whereas right now Delta IV Heavy would still have Falcon Heavy beat for C3=0 (escape) because of the limited Isp of hydrocarbon upper stages (even methane).

I wouldn't rule it completely out. SpaceX has looked into some hydrogen infrastructure (they bought an old hydrogen rail car for cheap/free). They have some world-class propulsion development infrastructure and have assembled a very capable team. It'd also allow a partially reusable Falcon 9 to serve a very profitable segment of the commercial market (by having good performance to GTO).

SpaceX has changed tacks several times, now. Falcon 5 (with a dual Kestrel upper stage) with parachute recovery became Falcon 9 v1.0 (with a planned block 2) which became v1.1 (skipped block 2 v1.0) and Grasshopper vertical landing recovery. I really wouldn't be surprised if they decide to develop a hydrogen upper stage eventually because it would probably double their performance to GTO.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/03/2013 08:38 pm
Let's see if we can make this work with some decent margins.

Assumptions:

1. Use two falcon heavy. Still cheaper than ULA.

2. You need some kind of earth departure stage. There is just no way around it. Since you can't launch two FH on the same day, and you don't want to deal with boiloff, use hypergolic propellant. Either super dracos with nozzle extensions, or the venerable AJ-10. So assume Isp of around 320s.

3. You want to let the launch vehicle do as much work as possible, since even the hydrocarbon FH upper stage has better Isp than your EDS, and a smaller EDS is cheaper to develop. So docking is not in LEO but in an elliptical staging orbit with a low perigee (~200km) the apogee as high as the payload allows.

4. You get maximum use of the FH if both parts are roughly the same size. But a propellant mass fraction of 50% is not enough to reach the target velocity. So having one FH sending the EDS and one sending the payload won't work. You will need two EDS. Which is OK, because developing a smaller EDS and building two copies is cheaper than developing a large EDS and building one copy.

5. You can take your time to raise the apogee, but the earth departure burn has to happen in one perigee pass. If you interrupt it after you have C3=0, you are stranded in interplanetary space on a trajectory that won't come near earth any time soon.

So let's see what we can get given these assumptions:

Assume a payload mass of 16000kg. Marginal, but not completely unrealistic like what was given in the paper.

- 8000kg dragon capsule with beefed up heat shield, propellant for midcourse corrections, consumables and crew. Still light enough to use the abort system in case something goes wrong with the launch.

- 8000kg hab module (possibly based on cygnus) containing more consumables, solar cells, radiators and the ECLSS.

Each part comes with a storable propellant stage with a wet mass of 22000kg and a dry mass of 1000kg. So the total payload for each FH flight is 30000kg. The FH should be able to lift this into a LEO+1.5km/s elliptical staging orbit (We have to guess here because there is no payload users guide for the FH, but at least it is a somewhat reasonable guess).

Total wet mass in the staging orbit is 60000kg. After the first burn, the remaining mass is 39000kg and the delta-v is 1352m/s. After that burn the spacecraft is in a highly elliptical orbit, but still comfortably below C3=0. This burn would be done by the stage behind the hab module, meaning eyeballs out acceleration for the crew.

For the second burn, the initial mass is 38000kg and the end mass is 17000kg, giving a delta-v of 2525m/s. Total delta-v from the staging orbit is thus 3877, which gets you the needed 4880m/s above LEO with some 500m/s margin, since the staging orbit is 1500m/s above LEO.

Here is a spreadsheet for this approach:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AqQNEy5_BA9idHRnUHE4T1NhQXUzOFQzeUxRd2lxc2c&output=html (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AqQNEy5_BA9idHRnUHE4T1NhQXUzOFQzeUxRd2lxc2c&output=html)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MikeAtkinson on 03/03/2013 08:38 pm
Solar panels. No need for bigger and heavier. More efficient than the cheap ones they use for LEO should be enough. They are designed for LEO, with only 50% sun exposure.  They would still produce almost their nominal output even at Mars with 100% exposure.

I think you are forgetting that there will be approximately twice the average power use, due to the power required for ECLSS (note also they seem to have not included indirect effects like extra power for cooling in their paper), fans, light, etc. in the hab.

Enhanced radiators, yes, sun exposure at Venus distance from the sun was always one of my main concerns. Don't know how much that would increas the trunk weight. Hopefully less than you calculated.

It is not just the direct heating effects at Venus distance, probably more important is the extra cooling to extract heat from all the extra equipment.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Oli on 03/03/2013 08:40 pm
Quote from: MikeAtkinson
The inflatable hab would include at least:

- pressure shell for 25m^3 of volume (which will be about 2 tonnes)
- docking [berthing?] adapter
- fans and lighting + cabling for them.
- power and control/monitoring cabling for ECLSS
- fittings + restraints for ECLSS, supplies and spares
+ probably lots of other things I haven't thought of.

I wonder, how do you equip an inflatable hab with fittings and restraints? Wouldn't is be easier to just use the cygnus PCM? According to wiki the dry mass of the whole cygnus spacecraft (PCM+SM) is only 1.8t while offering 27m3 volume. The BEAM weights 1.36t and provides 16m3...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/03/2013 08:41 pm
A hydrogen upper stage is sufficiently compelling that SpaceX may want to develop one. It would absolutely crush every other launch vehicle to C3=0, whereas right now Delta IV Heavy would still have Falcon Heavy beat for C3=0 (escape) because of the limited Isp of hydrocarbon upper stages (even methane).

I wouldn't rule it completely out. SpaceX has looked into some hydrogen infrastructure (they bought an old hydrogen rail car for cheap/free). They have some world-class propulsion development infrastructure and have assembled a very capable team. It'd also allow a partially reusable Falcon 9 to serve a very profitable segment of the commercial market (by having good performance to GTO).

SpaceX has changed tacks several times, now. Falcon 5 (with a dual Kestrel upper stage) with parachute recovery became Falcon 9 v1.0 (with a planned block 2) which became v1.1 (skipped block 2 v1.0) and Grasshopper vertical landing recovery. I really wouldn't be surprised if they decide to develop a hydrogen upper stage eventually because it would probably double their performance to GTO.

I wouldn't rule that out either. With a FH and a hydrogen upper stage you could do this mission with one launch. But it won't be ready for the 2018 opportunity.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: SpacexULA on 03/03/2013 08:54 pm
IF they could get SpaceX on board, I'd suggest having them develop a 43 tonne, hypergolic EDS using Falcon tankage, super-draco engines, and Dragon avionics and RCS.

Launch two of them on FHs, one with a small habitat, and one with a Dragon. Dock in LEO (Dragon to Hab). Fire one EDS to start TMI. When depleted: stage, flip around 180 degrees and fire the second EDS to complete TMI.

Sorry just the thought of the visual on that is amazing. 

Would there be a further market this type of EDS beyond this mission? 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/03/2013 09:00 pm
IF they could get SpaceX on board, I'd suggest having them develop a 43 tonne, hypergolic EDS using Falcon tankage, super-draco engines, and Dragon avionics and RCS.

Launch two of them on FHs, one with a small habitat, and one with a Dragon. Dock in LEO (Dragon to Hab). Fire one EDS to start TMI. When depleted: stage, flip around 180 degrees and fire the second EDS to complete TMI.

Sorry just the thought of the visual on that is amazing. 

Would there be a further market this type of EDS beyond this mission? 

It would allow them to do interplanetary missions and GTO missions with larger payload. But I suspect that spacex has other plans (improved methane based upper stage).
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 03/03/2013 09:08 pm
I really wouldn't be surprised if they decide to develop a hydrogen upper stage eventually because it would probably double their performance to GTO.

First they would want to be sure there's a line of customers justifying the development costs. Just Tito isn't enough.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 03/03/2013 09:13 pm
OK a few points.

For one I refuse to accept the notion, the group consists of complete morons that forget half the requirements. They are not and they have not.

Second the fuel. Corrections during the flight will be miniscule, use very little fuel. No fuel for landing except attitude control during descent. Dragon will have parachutes (needed for Launch Abort) and use them. So fuel already included in Dragon weight.

Power requirements. Remember Dragon is designed for seven persons. 2 persons will need a lot less power, produce less heat. The advanced ECLSS will need a lot more per person but 2 vs. 7 should balance that. More advanced solar cells will provide excess power without extra weight.

ECLSS weight. As it is designed for 2 persons the weight even including the advanced recycling may be not much higher than the standard ECLSS for 7. So already included in the Dragon weight. That leaves maybe 3 tons supplies. That is what they mentioned.

About hydrogen, yes SpaceX change course, if required. Still I rule LH out. SpaceX has abandoned that for reason of reusability.

Anyway it is moot for the purpose of this mission. In that timeframe they won't develop a new upper stage, hydrogen or methane. What could be achieved by fitting an extended upper stage with 50 t more fuel on a Falcon Heavy without other payload and use that as the EDS? Better or less good than a hypergolic kick stage?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/03/2013 09:28 pm
I really wouldn't be surprised if they decide to develop a hydrogen upper stage eventually because it would probably double their performance to GTO.

First they would want to be sure there's a line of customers justifying the development costs. Just Tito isn't enough.
There are plenty of customers for a Falcon 9 with very good GTO performance.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: joek on 03/03/2013 09:40 pm
I really wouldn't be surprised if they decide to develop a hydrogen upper stage eventually because it would probably double their performance to GTO.
First they would want to be sure there's a line of customers justifying the development costs. Just Tito isn't enough.
There are plenty of customers for a Falcon 9 with very good GTO performance.

The relevant question is: Are there sufficient customers who require more GTO performance than F9v1.1 (or FH) provides to justify the development of a hydrogen upper stage?  The answer appears to be "no".
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 03/03/2013 09:43 pm
There are plenty of customers for a Falcon 9 with very good GTO performance.

Sure there would be, provided that the price tag wouldn't increase much. But with SpaceX's burgeoning headcount (which LH2-path would only increase) and possible development of Atlas V look-alike, is it given?

(Yea yea vertical integration, Elon!ˇ!)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/03/2013 09:45 pm
I really wouldn't be surprised if they decide to develop a hydrogen upper stage eventually because it would probably double their performance to GTO.
First they would want to be sure there's a line of customers justifying the development costs. Just Tito isn't enough.
There are plenty of customers for a Falcon 9 with very good GTO performance.

The relevant question is: Are there sufficient customers who require more GTO performance than F9v1.1 (or FH) provides to justify the development of a hydrogen upper stage?  The answer appears to be "no".

There is just one customer that requires more than 12t to GTO: DOD/NRO. But they pay very well...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/03/2013 10:01 pm
There are plenty of customers for a Falcon 9 with very good GTO performance.

Sure there would be, provided that the price tag wouldn't increase much. But with SpaceX's burgeoning headcount (which LH2-path would only increase) and possible development of Atlas V look-alike, is it given?

(Yea yea vertical integration, Elon!ˇ!)
Once R&D for M1D and their methane stage wind down, they'll either need to find such a project to keep the propulsion R&D team engaged or they'll have to let them go.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 03/03/2013 10:18 pm
Once R&D for M1D and their methane stage wind down, they'll either need to find such a project to keep the propulsion R&D team engaged or they'll have to let them go.
Hard to see it wind down so much that R&D team would find itself without work, always room to improve reliability if nothing else. LH2 would not involve just prop R&D team, new infrastructure to support it at the pad required.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 03/04/2013 01:04 am
Apparently the Russians are  ::) -ing on the 2018 flight. Look at the reaction by RSC Energia president Vitaly Lopota: http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/news/5395/ (http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/news/5395/)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 03/04/2013 01:13 am
The Google translation requires a little creative reading, but it seems like Lopota didn't even watch the press conference before making these statements :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 03/04/2013 05:58 am
I really wouldn't be surprised if they decide to develop a hydrogen upper stage eventually because it would probably double their performance to GTO.
First they would want to be sure there's a line of customers justifying the development costs. Just Tito isn't enough.
There are plenty of customers for a Falcon 9 with very good GTO performance.

The relevant question is: Are there sufficient customers who require more GTO performance than F9v1.1 (or FH) provides to justify the development of a hydrogen upper stage?  The answer appears to be "no".

An enhanced GTO presumably means enhanced Trans Luna Injection mass.  Does anyone want to go to the Moon?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: kkattula on 03/04/2013 06:24 am
IF they could get SpaceX on board, I'd suggest having them develop a 43 tonne, hypergolic EDS using Falcon tankage, super-draco engines, and Dragon avionics and RCS.

Launch two of them on FHs, one with a small habitat, and one with a Dragon. Dock in LEO (Dragon to Hab). Fire one EDS to start TMI. When depleted: stage, flip around 180 degrees and fire the second EDS to complete TMI.

Sorry just the thought of the visual on that is amazing. 

Would there be a further market this type of EDS beyond this mission? 

Sure. 
 
I first thought of it when Golden Spike anounced they were going to announce. Replace the Hab and some of the supplies/ECLSS with a small lander, and it would support a 2 x FH lunar mission.
 
Use a slower trajectory for a opposition class mission, (with more supplies & propellant), and they could enter Mars orbit and return.
 
Use another pair of FH launches to put a lander/ascender in Mars orbit. Or a small base to place on Phobos.
 
The big advantage of using hypergolic EDS is it relaxes the requirement to do rapid multiple launches.  They can launch non-crew lements months in advance.
 
Othe advantages include:
 
Unlimited re-starts.
No boil-off issues, during flight as well as loiter.
Almost all existing technology.
 
The main disadvantage is obviously lower Isp, but a dedicated in-space stage can partially alleviate that by using a honking big expansion nozzle, for a relatively small engine. Whereas a dual purpose US/EDS needs a bigger engine, and is more constrained on nozzle size.
 
 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/04/2013 06:45 am
IF they could get SpaceX on board, I'd suggest having them develop a 43 tonne, hypergolic EDS using Falcon tankage, super-draco engines, and Dragon avionics and RCS.

Launch two of them on FHs, one with a small habitat, and one with a Dragon. Dock in LEO (Dragon to Hab). Fire one EDS to start TMI. When depleted: stage, flip around 180 degrees and fire the second EDS to complete TMI.

Sorry just the thought of the visual on that is amazing. 

Would there be a further market this type of EDS beyond this mission? 

Sure. 
 
I first thought of it when Golden Spike anounced they were going to announce. Replace the Hab and some of the supplies/ECLSS with a small lander, and it would support a 2 x FH lunar mission.
 
Use a slower trajectory for a opposition class mission, (with more supplies & propellant), and they could enter Mars orbit and return.
 
Use another pair of FH launches to put a lander/ascender in Mars orbit. Or a small base to place on Phobos.
 
The big advantage of using hypergolic EDS is it relaxes the requirement to do rapid multiple launches.  They can launch non-crew lements months in advance.

If you take FH as given, a decent sized hypergolic stage is the only missing piece to do missions such as golden spike and inspiration mars with totally off the shelf propulsion. I don't think it has to be 43t. A bit smaller would work too if you stage in an elliptical orbit. See my calculation.
 
Quote
The main disadvantage is obviously lower Isp, but a dedicated in-space stage can partially alleviate that by using a honking big expansion nozzle, for a relatively small engine. Whereas a dual purpose US/EDS needs a bigger engine, and is more constrained on nozzle size.

You still need decent T/W to do the TMI maneuver close to perigee, where you get maximum oberth effect. Once your burn takes longer than, say, 10 minutes, you can no longer use the impulsive approximation and have increased delta-v requirements.

Super dracos with nozzle extension would work. Dracos would not, unless you use a lot of them. I wonder what kind of Isp you could get from super dracos with long nozzle extensions.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: kkattula on 03/04/2013 07:14 am
If you take FH as given, a decent sized hypergolic stage is the only missing piece to do missions such as golden spike and inspiration mars with totally off the shelf propulsion. I don't think it has to be 43t. A bit smaller would work too if you stage in an elliptical orbit. See my calculation.
 

True, but it would have to be traded against lifting the extra mass of the Falcon US that high. Given only slightly lower Isp, I suspect there's negligible difference.
 
Also the radiation issues are reduced in LEO for the crew doing docking, rendezvous and any pre-TMI fit out.
 
Plus a bigger EDS gives more flexibilty for future missions, especially if refuelling and depots are considered.
 
Quote

You still need decent T/W to do the TMI maneuver close to perigee, where you get maximum oberth effect. Once your burn takes longer than, say, 10 minutes, you can no longer use the impulsive approximation and have increased delta-v requirements.

Absolutely.  Minimum T/W at start of TMI is about 0.3 or gravity losses become serious. It might even be better for one of the EDS to have more engines than the other, although that would reduce the possible nozzles size.
 
BOTE, the 'first stage' EDS would need 5 super dracos. The 'second stage' at least 3. Hmm, not that much difference after all. Could just go with 5 on each to maintain commonality, and add redundancy to the second stage.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 03/04/2013 07:23 am
What about a pair of Russian Block-DM propulsion modules, perhaps coupled with a solid 'kickstage' (similar to Delta II upper stage) mounted on the rear of the capsule (Dragon)? On the Space Adventures lunar mission, 1x Block-DM is touted (see attached pic). Since the Inspiration Mission modules will mass several tons more; would 2x Block-DMs and a kickstage (Solid or otherwise) be enough to get the lot to the required delta-vee?

EDIT: Some quick Googling tells me that the Block-DM late models have about 350 seconds specific impulse, a single engine producing about 83kN of thrust (more than 17,000lbs) and about 14.5 tons of LOX/kerosene propellants. A 'gang' of 2 or 3 of these things probably could push a decent mass to Escape Velocity.

http://www.tsenki.com/en/launch_services/help_information/upper_stages/view/?SECTION_ID=140&ELEMENT_ID=85810
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/04/2013 07:56 am
What about a pair of Russian Block-DM propulsion modules, perhaps coupled with a solid 'kickstage' (similar to Delta II upper stage) mounted on the rear of the capsule (Dragon)? On the Space Adventures lunar mission, 1x Block-DM is touted (see attached pic). Since the Inspiration Mission modules will mass several tons more; would 2x Block-DMs and a kickstage (Solid or otherwise) be enough to get the lot to the required delta-vee?

EDIT: Some quick Googling tells me that the Block-DM late models have about 350 seconds specific impulse, a single engine producing about 83kN of thrust (more than 17,000lbs) and about 14.5 tons of LOX/kerosene propellants. A 'gang' of 2 or 3 of these things probably could push a decent mass to Escape Velocity.

http://www.tsenki.com/en/launch_services/help_information/upper_stages/view/?SECTION_ID=140&ELEMENT_ID=85810

A number of Blok DM would probably give the required delta-V. But if you go kerosene/LOX you have problems with boiloff because of the LOX. And in any case, if you go with Kero/LOX you might as well use spacex hardware. Either launch a second falcon 9 upper stage, topped off to 53t, as a payload of a FH. Or lengthen the tanks of the FH upper stage. But then you would have to launch the crew first and the FH second, to prevent a long loiter time and boiloff in LEO.

I tried to make this work in this spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AqQNEy5_BA9idGlxSTdLbDRZY0duOWFhSTN6SmtZZEE&output=html (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AqQNEy5_BA9idGlxSTdLbDRZY0duOWFhSTN6SmtZZEE&output=html).
But you only get 12 tons to the required velocity.

A methane upper stage would help with boiloff issues too: A LOX/Kero stage with a common bulkhead can't be just packed into thick isolation, because LOX and Kero require different temperatures. A LOX/Methane stage could be isolated as a whole, because LOX and Methane have a common liquid temperature range.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/04/2013 08:07 am
If you take FH as given, a decent sized hypergolic stage is the only missing piece to do missions such as golden spike and inspiration mars with totally off the shelf propulsion. I don't think it has to be 43t. A bit smaller would work too if you stage in an elliptical orbit. See my calculation.
 

True, but it would have to be traded against lifting the extra mass of the Falcon US that high. Given only slightly lower Isp, I suspect there's negligible difference.

For the delta-v it would not make much difference. But for the development and production cost it might. And I think a smaller one (~20t) is more generally useful.
 
Quote
Also the radiation issues are reduced in LEO for the crew doing docking, rendezvous and any pre-TMI fit out.

True. But if you are concerned about radiation, a mission scenario like inspiration mars is out of the question anyway. And for the additional passes through the van allen belts the consumables at the beginning of the mission would provide ample shielding.

Quote

Plus a bigger EDS gives more flexibilty for future missions, especially if refuelling and depots are considered.

Also true, but I suspect that this would be used only a few times, since the long term plans of SpaceX go into a different direction (methane raptor upper stage).

Quote
Quote
You still need decent T/W to do the TMI maneuver close to perigee, where you get maximum oberth effect. Once your burn takes longer than, say, 10 minutes, you can no longer use the impulsive approximation and have increased delta-v requirements.

Absolutely.  Minimum T/W at start of TMI is about 0.3 or gravity losses become serious. It might even be better for one of the EDS to have more engines than the other, although that would reduce the possible nozzles size.
 
BOTE, the 'first stage' EDS would need 5 super dracos. The 'second stage' at least 3. Hmm, not that much difference after all. Could just go with 5 on each to maintain commonality, and add redundancy to the second stage.

For the development cost it would be good to have the two stages identical. And having redundancy in the TMI burn would be really good, since if your engine shuts down in the middle of the TMI burn after C3=0, you are screwed. So 5 engines sounds reasonable.

Edit: just for completeness sake, here is the 2 FH, LEO staging scenario:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AqQNEy5_BA9idGRkSU01d3huVk41OXFmaEw0OTZUMVE&output=html (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AqQNEy5_BA9idGRkSU01d3huVk41OXFmaEw0OTZUMVE&output=html)

You get a slightly higher delta-v margin, but all in all it does not make a big difference.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 03/04/2013 08:39 am
The Google translation requires a little creative reading, but it seems like Lopota didn't even watch the press conference before making these statements :)

Sounds par for the course for Roscosmos: react, make policy and then gather the facts.  This is why I think people have a problem taking them seriously (at least the administrative/leadership end of the organisation).
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 03/04/2013 08:56 am
Some good research there, rklaehn - thanks. Although, if you look at the Block DM pictures around on the net, you don't see much insulation in evidence on them. Perhaps upgrading that alone would help? Also, it appears that the Block DM was originally designed as a multi-restart stage that could tolerate a few days of coasting before restart, with an accepted margin of boiloff between burns. But I'll also concede that 14.5 tons of propellant per stage isn't much.

But what we have to remember driving all this is the time frame: 5 years isn't enough time (and probably money) to drive revolutionary advances in propulsion. I dare say that Mr Tito will want to use as much off-the-shelf gear and propulsion as he can. On that basis alone: Block DM is a contender, along with other LOX/kerosene stages (Falcon 9 with Merlin 1D vacuum version) LOX/methane Raptor - if it could be ready in time (doubtful) - and perhaps a Centaur added to the stack only a few hours before TMI.

But easiest of all, on a technology readiness basis; is hypergolics. A large-ish stage with pairs (or trios) of Super Dracos and tens of tons of hydrazine & NTO would work. But they'd have to be able to be docked in pairs or trios in 'gangs' for staging. But I'm also mindful that we don't want to assemble this mission stack out of a half-dozen, budget-bursting rocket launches. How would they keep this assembly sequence down to a maximum of three launches? (Two would be even better).
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 03/04/2013 09:04 am
The Google translation requires a little creative reading, but it seems like Lopota didn't even watch the press conference before making these statements :)

Sounds par for the course for Roscosmos: react, make policy and then gather the facts.  This is why I think people have a problem taking them seriously (at least the administrative/leadership end of the organisation).

Ah yes, Mr Lopota questioned Tito's SC mass estimates, Dragon's capability to provide required ECLSS/reentry and existence of LVs powerful enough to launch the mission. *Clearly deranged talk!


(* may contain sarcasm)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/04/2013 09:16 am
Some good research there, rklaehn - thanks. Although, if you look at the Block DM pictures around on the net, you don't see much insulation in evidence on them. Perhaps upgrading that alone would help? Also, it appears that the Block DM was originally designed as a multi-restart stage that could tolerate a few days of coasting before restart, with an accepted margin of boiloff between burns. But I'll also concede that 14.5 tons of propellant per stage isn't much.

But what we have to remember driving all this is the time frame: 5 years isn't enough time (and probably money) to drive revolutionary advances in propulsion. I dare say that Mr Tito will want to use as much off-the-shelf gear and propulsion as he can. On that basis alone: Block DM is a contender, along with other LOX/kerosene stages (Falcon 9 with Merlin 1D vacuum version) LOX/methane Raptor - if it could be ready in time (doubtful) - and perhaps a Centaur added to the stack only a few hours before TMI.

But easiest of all, on a technology readiness basis; is hypergolics. A large-ish stage with pairs (or trios) of Super Dracos and tens of tons of hydrazine & NTO would work. But they'd have to be able to be docked in pairs or trios in 'gangs' for staging. But I'm also mindful that we don't want to assemble this mission stack out of a half-dozen, budget-bursting rocket launches. How would they keep this assembly sequence down to a maximum of three launches? (Two would be even better).

Well, I think anything involving russian hardware makes the whole scenario even less likely. And it would kind of defeat the "mission for america" credo.

But there is the Briz upper stage used by the Proton. It is just the right size for the 2xFH scenario, and it is hypergolic. But it is not very reliable. I would not entrust my life in that stage.

A much more likely scenario is something involving spacex hardware. With 2xFH there is enough mass to work with. So show SpaceX enough money and a mission scenario that has a decent chance of not killing the crew, and they will find a way.

Combining existing engines like super draco with existing tanks to produce a storable propellant upper stage is not that hard, compared to what they have to do to get dragon rider operational.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: gospacex on 03/04/2013 09:38 am
[snark] I wonder if the kids will be inspired when a married couple thinks of innovative ways to murder each other after being locked together in a closet for 500 days [/snark]
 :P

Phlease.

As just one example of thousands, Nelson Mandela was locked up for **twenty-seven years**. And he had no reason to think that he will get a significant reward for living though it. "Mandela describes how, as a D-group prisoner (the lowest classification), he was allowed one visitor and one letter every six months."

Yet, he didn't merely survived, he is quite ok mentally.

Please tell me more how hard it is to survive a trip of slightly more than one year to Mars and back which propels you to the worldwide fame.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 03/04/2013 01:04 pm
...As just one example of thousands, Nelson Mandela was locked up for **twenty-seven years**. ...

Please tell me more how hard it is to survive a trip of slightly more than one year to Mars and back which propels you to the worldwide fame.

I bolded the part where I think you answered your own question.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: gospacex on 03/04/2013 01:29 pm
...As just one example of thousands, Nelson Mandela was locked up for **twenty-seven years**. ...

Please tell me more how hard it is to survive a trip of slightly more than one year to Mars and back which propels you to the worldwide fame.

I bolded the part where I think you answered your own question.

Allow me to repeat the quote I was replying to:

[snark] I wonder if the kids will be inspired when a married couple thinks of innovative ways to murder each other after being locked together in a closet for 500 days [/snark]

To make it blisteringly clear: as you can see above, the quote was talking about PSYCHOLOGICAL problems of living in confined space, not about surviving the trip wrt radiation/equipment failures/etc. I pointed out that it is not nearly as bad as Drkskywxlt depicts: many people had it much worse.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Mongo62 on 03/04/2013 01:52 pm
Not to mention the sixteenth through nineteenth century voyages of discovery, with sailing ship crews living in similar conditions of crowding, hardship and workload, for years at a time.  Yet they somehow managed to survive.  People are a lot more resilient than they are generally given credit for.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 03/04/2013 02:05 pm
Much ado about nuttin'

I can spend 500 days with someone in a an enclosure of that size, even if they are unpleasant, as long as they do their job.

If it's my wife, double bonus - I just don't see the problem there.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 03/04/2013 02:20 pm
...As just one example of thousands, Nelson Mandela was locked up for **twenty-seven years**. ...

Please tell me more how hard it is to survive a trip of slightly more than one year to Mars and back which propels you to the worldwide fame.

I bolded the part where I think you answered your own question.

Allow me to repeat the quote I was replying to:

[snark] I wonder if blah blah blah [/snark]

To make it blisteringly clear: as you can see above, blah blah blah

Absolutely. 

I'm reasonably confident that one (or heck, even two) could voluntarily submit to the confined quarters for the 500 some odd day journey and manage.  It would not be the isolation that Nelson and others have suffered.  Just think of the posts you could make here on NSF, for one thing, with all the time on your hands.

The key problem is the physical survival of the crew.  Tito's group has stated that they understand the importance of this issue, and they have also stated that life support systems are not as expensive as previously advertised.  They have sketched out a theoretical scheme where the crew performs maintenance on the life support system, which I think is a good approach.

However, Tito has not revealed any particulars of the IP surrounding that confidently announced life support system.  If Paragon has some special sauce, then it has not been publicly revealed.

Life support is the key factor for success of this mission.  Aerocapturing a capsule with two cadavers wouldn't inspire the children.  But hey.  I've been wrong before.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Afrocle on 03/04/2013 03:05 pm
Has anyone noted or noticed that the delta V requirements and commercial infrastructure planned for this Inspiration Mars flyby mission could also have humans (i.e. NASA or others) to reach 1% to 2% of the NEO Asteroids in less time?

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:FM9TDZu_vw8J:dspace.mit.edu/openaccess-disseminate/1721.1/73467+human+asteroid+mission,+delta+v,+km/s&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESi6dxcUCusBTNO5eIkF-rejE-A9PUptDenUyMd9AqgwUeOR0Nb6I4ooHDZLybVXTvV4kbyRJD2HhaHiClThXDhy3K4N59Sbhsynx2B5jnJVWVsQ5fGP5-qZMQ5IvwHyfFumHI8O&sig=AHIEtbRvcnzkxyyLVwL9v6IIucPi7DJczg

Why is NASA spending money to use SLS and Orion on 2 flights around the Moon, when the President said in 2010 that NASA should avoid the Moon and go to an Asteroid and then to Mars? Why can't NASA use the same technology that Inspiration Mars is using to meet the President's goal of human flybys of Asteroids and Mars, but sooner at much lower cost?

The simple answer is probably that Congress and entrenched political/industrial interests will resist this faster and lower cost path, but Inspiration Mars has shown that others could use private financing and US commercial industry to have humans reach Asteroids and Mars in the near term.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/04/2013 03:10 pm
Because the goal isn't flyby but to rendezvous and study.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Afrocle on 03/04/2013 04:07 pm
Because the goal isn't flyby but to rendezvous and study.

Agreed. The Inpiration Mars flyby delta V requirement would allow the same 2 person architecture to fly to an Asteroid and back, but they would have to keep the rendezvous and propulsive capabilities of the Dragon to be able to make the corrections to study an Asteroid.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Archibald on 03/04/2013 05:40 pm
What about a pair of Russian Block-DM propulsion modules, perhaps coupled with a solid 'kickstage' (similar to Delta II upper stage) mounted on the rear of the capsule (Dragon)? On the Space Adventures lunar mission, 1x Block-DM is touted (see attached pic). Since the Inspiration Mission modules will mass several tons more; would 2x Block-DMs and a kickstage (Solid or otherwise) be enough to get the lot to the required delta-vee?

EDIT: Some quick Googling tells me that the Block-DM late models have about 350 seconds specific impulse, a single engine producing about 83kN of thrust (more than 17,000lbs) and about 14.5 tons of LOX/kerosene propellants. A 'gang' of 2 or 3 of these things probably could push a decent mass to Escape Velocity.

http://www.tsenki.com/en/launch_services/help_information/upper_stages/view/?SECTION_ID=140&ELEMENT_ID=85810

A number of Blok DM would probably give the required delta-V. But if you go kerosene/LOX you have problems with boiloff because of the LOX. And in any case, if you go with Kero/LOX you might as well use spacex hardware. Either launch a second falcon 9 upper stage, topped off to 53t, as a payload of a FH. Or lengthen the tanks of the FH upper stage. But then you would have to launch the crew first and the FH second, to prevent a long loiter time and boiloff in LEO.

I tried to make this work in this spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AqQNEy5_BA9idGlxSTdLbDRZY0duOWFhSTN6SmtZZEE&output=html (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AqQNEy5_BA9idGlxSTdLbDRZY0duOWFhSTN6SmtZZEE&output=html).
But you only get 12 tons to the required velocity.

A methane upper stage would help with boiloff issues too: A LOX/Kero stage with a common bulkhead can't be just packed into thick isolation, because LOX and Kero require different temperatures. A LOX/Methane stage could be isolated as a whole, because LOX and Methane have a common liquid temperature range.

Which is why Zubrin, in the Athena study I previously linked, suggested using four Briz-M with storable propellants.  :)
That one key aspect of Mars flyby / double flyby / libration point missions: four EELVs-class launchers (Ariane 5 or Proton) with non-cryogenic stages can do the trick.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: fregate on 03/04/2013 11:04 pm
What about a pair of Russian Block-DM propulsion modules, perhaps coupled with a solid 'kickstage' (similar to Delta II upper stage) mounted on the rear of the capsule (Dragon)? On the Space Adventures lunar mission, 1x Block-DM is touted (see attached pic). Since the Inspiration Mission modules will mass several tons more; would 2x Block-DMs and a kickstage (Solid or otherwise) be enough to get the lot to the required delta-vee?

EDIT: Some quick Googling tells me that the Block-DM late models have about 350 seconds specific impulse, a single engine producing about 83kN of thrust (more than 17,000lbs) and about 14.5 tons of LOX/kerosene propellants. A 'gang' of 2 or 3 of these things probably could push a decent mass to Escape Velocity.

http://www.tsenki.com/en/launch_services/help_information/upper_stages/view/?SECTION_ID=140&ELEMENT_ID=85810

A number of Blok DM would probably give the required delta-V. But if you go kerosene/LOX you have problems with boiloff because of the LOX. And in any case, if you go with Kero/LOX you might as well use spacex hardware. Either launch a second falcon 9 upper stage, topped off to 53t, as a payload of a FH. Or lengthen the tanks of the FH upper stage. But then you would have to launch the crew first and the FH second, to prevent a long loiter time and boiloff in LEO.

I tried to make this work in this spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AqQNEy5_BA9idGlxSTdLbDRZY0duOWFhSTN6SmtZZEE&output=html (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AqQNEy5_BA9idGlxSTdLbDRZY0duOWFhSTN6SmtZZEE&output=html).
But you only get 12 tons to the required velocity.

A methane upper stage would help with boiloff issues too: A LOX/Kero stage with a common bulkhead can't be just packed into thick isolation, because LOX and Kero require different temperatures. A LOX/Methane stage could be isolated as a whole, because LOX and Methane have a common liquid temperature range.

Which is why Zubrin, in the Athena study I previously linked, suggested using four Briz-M with storable propellants.  :)
That one key aspect of Mars flyby / double flyby / libration point missions: four EELVs-class launchers (Ariane 5 or Proton) with non-cryogenic stages can do the trick.
FYI - RSC Energia's Block DM is not a SINGLE Upper Stage, it rather a family. Which one are your after?     
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: fregate on 03/04/2013 11:21 pm
Apparently the Russians are  ::) -ing on the 2018 flight. Look at the reaction by RSC Energia president Vitaly Lopota: http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/news/5395/ (http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/news/5395/)
Original publication (in Russian) by Interfax news agency is here (http://www.interfax.by/news/world/126111)
Пилотируемый облет Марса в 2018 году вряд ли возможен - руководитель РКК "Энергия"
"Manned Mars flyby in 2018 is not quite possible" - Head of RSC Energia

Unfortunately NK Magazine news feed NEVER provide links to their sources.  :(
Please let me know is anybody need English translation.   
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 03/05/2013 05:42 am
A number of Blok DM would probably give the required delta-V. But if you go kerosene/LOX you have problems with boiloff because of the LOX. And in any case, if you go with Kero/LOX you might as well use spacex hardware. Either launch a second falcon 9 upper stage, topped off to 53t, as a payload of a FH. Or lengthen the tanks of the FH upper stage. But then you would have to launch the crew first and the FH second, to prevent a long loiter time and boiloff in LEO.

I see that as a very good idea. Staying a few weeks in LEO to shake down the ECLSS will increase safety. If something fails an abort is still possible. And with a mission duration of 500 days it is not that much.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 03/05/2013 12:30 pm
I agree that a shakedown cruise in LEO would be a requirement, not an option.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/05/2013 02:01 pm
I agree that a shakedown cruise in LEO would be a requirement, not an option.
Because this mission doesn't have enough requirements, I'm sure they'd love adding another one.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: bad_astra on 03/05/2013 02:36 pm
Less than five years, I don't think Tito can remotely realistically incorporate a Falcon Heavy that does not yet exist. It will have to be multiple launch scenario, if it happens at all, and that opens up the field to Antares/Cygnus, D4 Heavy, etc.

This could be an entirely non-SpaceX hardware mission.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 03/05/2013 02:37 pm
I agree that a shakedown cruise in LEO would be a requirement, not an option.
Because this mission doesn't have enough requirements, I'm sure they'd love adding another one.
Because this mission has no risk to speak of, you're probably right.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 03/05/2013 02:46 pm
IMO 500+ day ECLSS shakedown tests for 2018 deployment should start .. uh.. now
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/05/2013 03:02 pm
Less than five years, I don't think Tito can remotely realistically incorporate a Falcon Heavy that does not yet exist. It will have to be multiple launch scenario, if it happens at all, and that opens up the field to Antares/Cygnus, D4 Heavy, etc.

This could be an entirely non-SpaceX hardware mission.

So no spacecraft that are currently in development and scheduled to fly before 2018? How are you going to launch the crew then? On a soyuz? Some mission for america that would be. Besides, that rule would also exclude Cygnus, since it has not flown yet.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Archibald on 03/05/2013 03:40 pm
Quote
FYI - RSC Energia's Block DM is not a SINGLE Upper Stage, it rather a family. Which one are your after?   

Can't understand that sentence  ???
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 03/05/2013 03:52 pm

This could be an entirely non-SpaceX hardware mission.

I really don't see what could replace Dragon. For the launch vehicle there may be options.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/05/2013 07:30 pm

This could be an entirely non-SpaceX hardware mission.

I really don't see what could replace Dragon. For the launch vehicle there may be options.
Actually, Dragon might be too heavy for this mission. Almaz capsule is closer to the right size. Or even a Soyuz-based (Foton just the descent-module of Soyuz aka the Zond capsule, mass of ~2400-2800kg) capsule may be closer, since ideally you want something only just barely big enough to reenter two people (in order to minimize the reentry system mass, since the reentry system mass shouldn't have to deal with the closed-loop ECLSS, consumables, etc... all that should be in the orbital module).
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: bad_astra on 03/05/2013 07:31 pm

This could be an entirely non-SpaceX hardware mission.

I really don't see what could replace Dragon. For the launch vehicle there may be options.

You could ferry the crew via commercial Soyuz (if the deal was allowed) and then you'd need only a very minimal two person return capsure (something like ARD with the Aleastrasil shield replaced with pica or another material that could handle reentry, the important thing would be keeping it as simple as possible. The less junk you do not need in the capsule, the better. It ultimately has one job to do.).

If domestic commercial crew options exist by then, terrific, but I no longer hold my breath.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/05/2013 07:46 pm

This could be an entirely non-SpaceX hardware mission.

I really don't see what could replace Dragon. For the launch vehicle there may be options.
Actually, Dragon might be too heavy for this mission. Almaz capsule is closer to the right size. Or even a Soyuz-based (Foton aka Zond) capsule may be closer, since ideally you want something only just barely big enough to reenter two people (in order to minimize the reentry system mass, since the reentry system mass shouldn't have to deal with the closed-loop ECLSS, consumables, etc... all that should be in the orbital module).

Soyuz is smaller than dragon, but not that much lighter. Just the reentry module of a current soyuz is 2950kg, and it can not function as an independent spacecraft for more than a few minutes. The entire soyuz is 7150kg.

With a dual launch mission you would have all the ECLSS hardware in the hab module (probably based on a cygnus, because if you have to install a lot of hardware a hard shell module is more convenient than an inflatable) and just removable consumables in the dragon. Then you would empty it completely before reentry to reduce the mass.

A two person reentry capsule would be nice, but very challenging to develop in such a short time frame.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/05/2013 07:52 pm
...which is why a Zond/Soyuz capsule (without the orbital module) may be more appropriate. Progress (very similar to Soyuz) is already capable of providing ACS for an attached module if needed, so the Russian Soyuz/Zond/Progress stack may be a better fit since it is already mostly developed. The reentry module is also one of the only ones to have tested skip reentry from lunar reentry speeds.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 03/05/2013 08:07 pm
the Russian Soyuz/Zond/Progress stack may be a better fit since it is already mostly developed.eds.

Inspirationmars.org has 13-15 times (depending on which banner is on) the word "America" on it's front page, making quite clear that it's supposed to draw from American technology and know-how to inspire American people.  Difficult to imagine key-elements being purchased from Russia. A capsule for Mars fly-by and reentry, a good test if are you AmeriCANs or American'ts ;) (from which movie was that)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: bad_astra on 03/05/2013 08:09 pm
A two person reentry capsule would be nice, but very challenging to develop in such a short time frame.

Not as challenging as it may seem, and the weight savings might pay for itself. With examples like ARD, a corona type vehicle, or a bare-bones-gemini clone (heat shield MOL-style entry) you have a mold line with understood aerodynamics. Add seats, beacon and breathing masks.

It comes down to mass. The IEE paper baselines a 5000kg, 3.6m diameter spacecraft. Dry mass on a cargo Dragon is 4200kg. I do not have a dry mass for CST-100 I am very sure about, but likely to be much more than Dragon.


Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/05/2013 08:09 pm
the Russian Soyuz/Zond/Progress stack may be a better fit since it is already mostly developed.eds.

Inspirationmars.org has 13-15 times (depending on which banner is on) the word "America" on it's front page, making quite clear that it's supposed to draw from American technology and know-how to inspire American people.  Difficult to imagine key-elements being purchased from Russia. A capsule for Mars fly-by and reentry, a good test if are you AmeriCANs or American'ts ;) (from which movie was that)
Good point.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: bad_astra on 03/05/2013 08:14 pm
No key foreign parts? That would leave out Atlas 5, Cygnus, Thin Red Line (ahem), Antares..
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 03/05/2013 08:15 pm
A two person reentry capsule would be nice, but very challenging to develop in such a short time frame.

A two person reentry capsule would be nice and a weight saver. Probably it would not have a LAS so the crew would need to fly with a separate launcher, maybe not the big problem. But we still need an ACS capable of doing the required trajectory fine tuning. A lot of development for a system that was intended to use existing tech to lower development time and cost.

...which is why a Zond/Soyuz capsule (without the orbital module) may be more appropriate. Progress (very similar to Soyuz) is already capable of providing ACS for an attached module if needed, so the Russian Soyuz/Zond/Progress stack may be a better fit since it is already mostly developed. The reentry module is also one of the only ones to have tested skip reentry from lunar reentry speeds.

What would be the weight and provided volume of that stack? Does it provide the option to attach another hab module? Not to mention the argument of bad_astra.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/05/2013 08:20 pm
A two person reentry capsule would be nice, but very challenging to develop in such a short time frame.

Not as challenging as it may seem, and the weight savings might pay for itself. With examples like ARD, a corona type vehicle, or a bare-bones-gemini clone (heat shield MOL-style entry) you have a mold line with understood aerodynamics. Add seats, beacon and breathing masks.

It comes down to mass. The IEE paper baselines a 5000kg, 3.6m diameter spacecraft. Dry mass on a cargo Dragon is 4200kg. I do not have a dry mass for CST-100 I am very sure about, but likely to be much more than Dragon.

If you assume a dual FH launch, you have plenty of mass to work with. If you assume that FH and Dragonrider don't work out until 2018, the whole mission is impossible with American hardware.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 03/05/2013 08:32 pm
No key foreign parts? That would leave out Atlas 5, Cygnus, Thin Red Line (ahem), Antares..

Part != element. 'System' would have been more prudent word. A capsule doing reentry is an entire system, individual spacecraft. It's not very America-inspiring if during the final minutes the American rear ends are saved from scorching by Russian capsule and heat shield ;) RD-180, NK-33 are parts for American designs (unlikely candidates for Tito anyway). Canadian inflatable sack is probably going to get a free pass, btw is the design indigenous Canadian, or Transhab/NASA origins?.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 03/05/2013 08:50 pm
Is the IEE paper out yet?  Does anyone have a link?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 03/05/2013 08:56 pm
Is the IEE paper out yet?  Does anyone have a link?

It's on the website, here a direct link (http://inspirationmars.org/IEEE_Aerospace_TITO-CARRICO_Feasibility_Analysis_for_a_Manned_Mars_Free-Return_Mission_in_2018.pdf)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 03/06/2013 06:26 am
Thanks!
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 03/06/2013 09:16 am
Idea for Mission Hardware: For the most part, we've been assuming a Dragon plus the inflatable - and so we should because many folk have been pointing that way. But here's a thought;

What if the 'Enhanced Cygnus' concept were adapted instead for the Hab Module? Apparently it will have (empty) 960 cubic feet of pressurized volume - that's 27 cubic meters. The Life support system could be emplaced within it along with consumables and some 'living equipment' - sleep stations, simple toilet, exercise equipment etc. The Cygnus has its own propulsion capability and solar arrays. The inside could also be lined with high-density polyethylene for radiation protection and the exterior could have added kevlar and mylar 'blankets' for protection and insulation.

None of the modifications need be showstoppers - even with the 5 year constraint. I know that a lot of the Hab's internal volume would be used up with the consumables, but if the Dragon is also launched with some in the rear of the cabin behind the crew, then some volume across both modules could be freed up for the crew. The supplies would also assist in being a radiation shield of course.

Other options could be a 'beefed-up' longer duration Soyuz as the Command craft, which would also have its Orbital Module as useful pressurized volume and storage space. Obviously, a docking adapter would be needed for either a Soyuz or Dragon to mate with Cygnus and both those craft would need several more oxygen tanks. For a Dragon derivative, I'm thinking of a longer-trunk with that space dedicated to oxygen and nitrogen tankage. Also, within the physical confines of the Dragon's onboard propulsion system - as much extra propellant as can be squeezed into there. And there's always the concept of a Dragon-derived, propulsion only add-on module for the Trunk section (for mid-course maneuvers etc).

Launch 1: Antares booster with Cygnus (Enhanced) Hab Module.
Launch 2: Falcon Heavy with Long-Trunk Dragon Command Craft and a Castor 30XL propulsion stage. Dragon & Castor rendezvous and dock with Cygnus
Launch 3: Falcon Heavy with the main Earth Departure Stage - LOX/Kerosene and approximately 55 tons of propellant. (Hypergolic version a viable alternative? EDS powered by 3 or 4x Super Draco engines?).

Dragon, Castor & Cygnus stack rendezvous and link up with EDS. TMI in two stages with EDS for Burn #1 and Castor for Burn #2.

The above is the equivalent of 'back of the envelope' design. I'd love to see what better number-crunchers than I can come up with. Of course, I realize that if the mission designers want to keep it down to a 2x launch architecture, the inflatable Hab would be lighter. But also; it wouldn't have its own solar arrays or propulsion module as Cygnus does...

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/06/2013 09:38 am
Idea for Mission Hardware: For the most part, we've been assuming a Dragon plus the inflatable - and so we should because many folk have been pointing that way. But here's a thought;

What if the 'Enhanced Cygnus' concept were adapted instead for the Hab Module? Apparently it will have (empty) 960 cubic feet of pressurized volume - that's 27 cubic meters. The Life support system could be emplaced within it along with consumables and some 'living equipment' - sleep stations, simple toilet, exercise equipment etc. The Cygnus has its own propulsion capability and solar arrays. The inside could also be lined with high-density polyethylene for radiation protection and the exterior could have added kevlar and mylar 'blankets' for protection and insulation.

None of the modifications need be showstoppers - even with the 5 year constraint. I know that a lot of the Hab's internal volume would be used up with the consumables, but if the Dragon is also launched with some in the rear of the cabin behind the crew, then some volume across both modules could be freed up for the crew. The supplies would also assist in being a radiation shield of course.

Other options could be a 'beefed-up' longer duration Soyuz as the Command craft, which would also have its Orbital Module as useful pressurized volume and storage space. Obviously, a docking adapter would be needed for either a Soyuz or Dragon to mate with Cygnus and both those craft would need several more oxygen tanks. For a Dragon derivative, I'm thinking of a longer-trunk with that space dedicated to oxygen and nitrogen tankage. Also, within the physical confines of the Dragon's onboard propulsion system - as much extra propellant as can be squeezed into there. And there's always the concept of a Dragon-derived, propulsion only add-on module for the Trunk section (for mid-course maneuvers etc).

Launch 1: Antares booster with Cygnus (Enhanced) Hab Module.
Launch 2: Falcon Heavy with Long-Trunk Dragon Command Craft and a Castor 30XL propulsion stage. Dragon & Castor rendezvous and dock with Cygnus
Launch 3: Falcon Heavy with the main Earth Departure Stage - LOX/Kerosene and 50 tons of propellant. (Hypergolic version a viable alternative? EDS powered by 3 or 4x Super Draco engines?).

Dragon, Castor & Cygnus stack rendezvous and link up with EDS. TMI in two stages with EDS for Burn #1 and Castor for Burn #2.

The above is the equivalent of 'back of the envelope' design. I'd love to see what better number-crunchers than I can come up with. Of course, I realize that if the mission designers want to keep it down to a 2x launch architecture, the inflatable Hab would be lighter. But also; it wouldn't have its own solar arrays or propulsion module as Cygnus does...

I agree that the Cygnus is preferable. To install a complex life support system, you pretty much need a hard shell or at least a hard backbone like bigelow sundancer modules. And from the paper, just the volume of the needed consumables is more than the interior volume of a dragon. So you need to pre-fill your hab module with ECLSS and consumables, which rules out the bigelow BEAM.

But I think it would make more sense to launch the cygnus-derived HAB module on another rocket, since Antares won't be able to lift a cygnus outfitted with most consumables and the ECLSS.

How about this: launch the Cygnus-derived hab on a falcon 9 on as high an orbit as you can afford. Check it out on orbit. It is unmanned, so repeated passes through the van allen belts are not a big problem. In fact they would be a good test of the fail safety of the electronics.

When the TMI launch window comes up, launch the dragon on a FH. The dragon would be mostly empty, with just two seats and consumables for a week. All the remaining payload mass would be a TMI stage based on a falcon 9 upper stage. Dock with the cygnus, and at the next perigee pass perform the TMI maneuver.

One complication: the cygnus derived HAB can not deploy its solar arrays during the checkout, because they are not able to withstand a high thrust maneuver like the TMI. The deployment of the solar arrays has to happen after TMI. Maybe use body-mounted solar cells like the HTV? One less thing that can go wrong.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 03/06/2013 09:49 am
Yeah, all good points! I wasn't sure that the Antares version as it is right now could lift a stretched/enhanced Cygnus loaded to the gills with consumables. Perhaps an AJ26-500 engined version without a solid upper stage? Although a Falcon 9.1 would be more plausible. Would a single Falcon Heavy launched LOX/Kero EDS have enough delta-vee to get a combined Dragon and large, loaded Cygnus going to TMI? That's why I suggested an additional propulsion stage - Castor 30XL or hypergolic - for the Dragon.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/06/2013 10:20 am
Yeah, all good points! I wasn't sure that the Antares version as it is right now could lift a stretched/enhanced Cygnus loaded to the gills with consumables. Perhaps an AJ26-500 engined version without a solid upper stage? Although a Falcon 9.1 would be more plausible. Would a single Falcon Heavy launched LOX/Kero EDS have enough delta-vee to get a combined Dragon and large, loaded Cygnus going to TMI? That's why I suggested an additional propulsion stage - Castor 30XL or hypergolic - for the Dragon.

If you believe the numbers about ECLSS from the paper, it would be enough. The key is to do the docking not in LEO, but in the highest orbit that you can afford. You should be able to figure out the apogee of the staging orbit using the HAB module mass and the falcon 9 1.1 payload users guide.

The total spacecraft mass (dragon+cyngnus hab+ECLSS+crew+consumables) would be about 12t using this approach, which is 2000kg more than what they assumed in the paper.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 03/06/2013 10:29 am
@ MATTBLAK

Why a Castor on the Dragon? That's a solid, isn't it? So, it's a single-use; wouldn't something Super-Draco-derived be better?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 03/06/2013 11:02 am
You're absolutely right - I say exactly that higher up the thread, along with the Russian Block DM and Briz stages. I only threw the Castor 30XL out there because of its simplicity and disposability - and because I think someone else had the idea too for its use as a 'kickstage' to supplement the EDS.

One idea I had awhile ago within a paper I wrote for a magazine (a Space X-centric Manned Mars Landing program: minimal new tech and no SLS) was to transform the Long-Trunk 'chassis'(?) into a Service Module: mounted with 1 or 2 Super Draco-derived engines using hydrazine/NTO propellants within the module. Hardly a new concept: think Apollo SPS. I speculated that such a Long Trunk Service Module; if dedicated to propulsion only, might fit in excess of 12 metric tons of propellant in there. I also provided a hand-drawn illustration I did showing how for complex Mars missions, the Service Modules could be 'ganged' inline in pairs or maybe threes. Lots of delta-vee there. 'Rocket Lego', I know - but fun to speculate.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 03/06/2013 12:27 pm
IIRC, with a proper expansion nozzle, the ATK Castor series has a vacuum Isp in the low 300s, comparable to hypergols.  Has anyone thought of maybe using a three of four of these in parallel for the EDS?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 03/06/2013 03:38 pm
I think they will have mature SpaceX hardware by that point and all of this speculation is for naught. SpaceX plans manned Dragonrider (non NASA crew) in 2015 and Falcon Heavy launch early 2014.

As for any customizations that might be needed for a long duration mission, that's another story.


A two person reentry capsule would be nice, but very challenging to develop in such a short time frame.

Not as challenging as it may seem, and the weight savings might pay for itself. With examples like ARD, a corona type vehicle, or a bare-bones-gemini clone (heat shield MOL-style entry) you have a mold line with understood aerodynamics. Add seats, beacon and breathing masks.

It comes down to mass. The IEE paper baselines a 5000kg, 3.6m diameter spacecraft. Dry mass on a cargo Dragon is 4200kg. I do not have a dry mass for CST-100 I am very sure about, but likely to be much more than Dragon.

If you assume a dual FH launch, you have plenty of mass to work with. If you assume that FH and Dragonrider don't work out until 2018, the whole mission is impossible with American hardware.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/06/2013 04:20 pm
I think they will have mature SpaceX hardware by that point and all of this speculation is for naught. SpaceX plans manned Dragonrider (non NASA crew) in 2015 and Falcon Heavy launch early 2014.

As for any customizations that might be needed for a long duration mission, that's another story.


A two person reentry capsule would be nice, but very challenging to develop in such a short time frame.

Not as challenging as it may seem, and the weight savings might pay for itself. With examples like ARD, a corona type vehicle, or a bare-bones-gemini clone (heat shield MOL-style entry) you have a mold line with understood aerodynamics. Add seats, beacon and breathing masks.

It comes down to mass. The IEE paper baselines a 5000kg, 3.6m diameter spacecraft. Dry mass on a cargo Dragon is 4200kg. I do not have a dry mass for CST-100 I am very sure about, but likely to be much more than Dragon.

If you assume a dual FH launch, you have plenty of mass to work with. If you assume that FH and Dragonrider don't work out until 2018, the whole mission is impossible with American hardware.
The problem is that they are mass sensitive enough that the fully equipped Dragonrider will be at least twice (maybe three times) as massive as what they'd want (and what an alternative like a Soyuz descent module would be like). This will increase their IMLEO by about 50%. They could get around that if SpaceX has a higher energy upper stage for the Falcon Heavy or they use a big, stretched Delta IV Heavy upper stage (on top of Falcon Heavy), but that is of course non-trivial.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: kkattula on 03/06/2013 05:03 pm
With a Dragon sized capsule and a Cygnus sized habitat, they can have redundant ECLSS in each. If something goes wrong with one, the crew can rely on the other until it's fixed, or (worst case) for the remainder of the trip. Wouldn't be comfortable, but better uncomfortable than dead.

With a minimal descent module, that wouldn't be a practical option. Add enough systems to make it an option, and mass would be approaching the bigger capsules.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/06/2013 05:05 pm
With a Dragon sized capsule and a Cygnus sized habitat, they can have redundant ECLSS in each. If something goes wrong with one, the crew can rely on the other until it's fixed, or (worst case) for the remainder of the trip. Wouldn't be comfortable, but better uncomfortable than dead.

With a minimal descent module, that wouldn't be a practical option. Add enough systems to make it an option, and mass would be approaching the bigger capsules.


Yeah, but all these nice-to-haves increase mass, increase cost, and decrease the chance of the mission actually happening. This mission is going to be /spartan/.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: sheltonjr on 03/06/2013 05:10 pm
Ok, Just to throw this out there! I have been a lurker for the past couple of months and have learned a lot.

How hard would it be to create this as a tethered space craft to provide 0.5-1.0 gravity for the trip. The tethered weight at the other end would be the TMI stage.

What does it require to besides an electric winch to reel in/out the tethered mass and thrusters to get the spin going that the crew module should already have (besides more fuel)?

Can a tethered spacecraft stay in the tethered configuration during the Mars fly-by?

What are the costs vs the cost saved by not having to worry about a 501 day zero gravity health effects on the couple.

If it worked this could be one of the biggest bonuses returned next to a proven ECLSS system.

In my opinion, Limited space and satisfactory exercise are not cooperative.

Thanks in advanced for any feedback!!
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: go4mars on 03/06/2013 05:17 pm
It's probably in this thread already, I forget.  But One of the other threads noted that a FH might be able to get 43 tonnes to orbit without an upper stage.  If so, FH launch 1 might lift an extended trunk, trogdor-dragon packed with supplies and life support (and maybe extra dragon juice tanks).  The other FH could have no payload.  Just an upper stage filled to the point that it's total mass is 43 tonnes (or whatever the exact number is).  Then these things get together for the long journey.   
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 03/06/2013 05:28 pm
It's probably in this thread already, I forget.  But One of the other threads noted that a FH might be able to get 43 tonnes to orbit without an upper stage.  If so, FH launch 1 might lift an extended trunk, trogdor-dragon packed with supplies and life support (and maybe extra dragon juice tanks).  The other FH could have no payload.  Just an upper stage filled to the point that it's total mass is 43 tonnes (or whatever the exact number is).  Then these things get together for the long journey.   

I believe an upper stage filled up or even one with an extended tank would lift more fuel to LEO. It would burn some of its own fuel but the total fuel mass to LEO available for TMI should be larger.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: kkattula on 03/06/2013 05:29 pm
Thinking about the issue of docking adaptors, is APAS or NDS reasonable for a 501 day mission? Including substantial acceleration at the start?

AIUI, Cygnus has passive CBM. Maybe it would need a short adaptor node with active CBM on one end and NDS on the other. Also a good place to attach suit ports and/or an exterior hatch so it can be used as an airlock.


BTW, if I was going, I'd really want an EVA capability. Not least because when cabin fever sets in, you have the option to go outside, be alone, and experience the vastness of space for a while.

And fix anything not fixable from the inside, like an antenna, or solar or radiator panel.

And take bags of waste outside. It can still reduce radiation strapped to the outside of the habitat, while being a lot more pleasant to live with. :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/06/2013 05:32 pm
I think they will have mature SpaceX hardware by that point and all of this speculation is for naught. SpaceX plans manned Dragonrider (non NASA crew) in 2015 and Falcon Heavy launch early 2014.

As for any customizations that might be needed for a long duration mission, that's another story.


A two person reentry capsule would be nice, but very challenging to develop in such a short time frame.

Not as challenging as it may seem, and the weight savings might pay for itself. With examples like ARD, a corona type vehicle, or a bare-bones-gemini clone (heat shield MOL-style entry) you have a mold line with understood aerodynamics. Add seats, beacon and breathing masks.

It comes down to mass. The IEE paper baselines a 5000kg, 3.6m diameter spacecraft. Dry mass on a cargo Dragon is 4200kg. I do not have a dry mass for CST-100 I am very sure about, but likely to be much more than Dragon.

If you assume a dual FH launch, you have plenty of mass to work with. If you assume that FH and Dragonrider don't work out until 2018, the whole mission is impossible with American hardware.
The problem is that they are mass sensitive enough that the fully equipped Dragonrider will be at least twice (maybe three times) as massive as what they'd want (and what an alternative like a Soyuz descent module would be like). This will increase their IMLEO by about 50%. They could get around that if SpaceX has a higher energy upper stage for the Falcon Heavy or they use a big, stretched Delta IV Heavy upper stage (on top of Falcon Heavy), but that is of course non-trivial.

I don't see why a dragonrider would be that much heavier than a CRS dragon. And at 4200kg, they could definitely afford one of those in a dual FH architecture.

But I guess the launch vehicle options are not sufficiently clear at this moment. 

The best they can do is assume that launch vehicle options will exist in the 2015 timeframe and work on the spacecraft and the ECLSS for now. Which is exactly what they plan to do.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: kkattula on 03/06/2013 05:43 pm
Quote from: Robotbeat
Yeah, but all these nice-to-haves increase mass, increase cost, and decrease the chance of the mission actually happening. This mission is going to be /spartan/.

There's spartan, and there's suicidal. Although, having seen 300, maybe there's not that much difference. ;)
 
This mission is supposed to Inspire. It needs to at least pass the Obituary Test.
 
Dying of stupidity ain't very Inspirational...
 

IMO, 1 x FH or even 1 x FH + F9 is just not enough lift for the job. Too many compromises when 2 x FH would provide ample margin.
 
If FH isn't available, probably 3 x D-IV Heavy would do the job, but at many times the price.
 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 03/06/2013 06:20 pm
This mission is supposed to Inspire. It needs to at least pass the Obituary Test.
 
Dying of stupidity ain't very Inspirational...

Robert Falcon Scott was hailed as a hero by the British Empire even though he was beaten by the Norwegians AND his expedition all died (of, if not stupidity, at least a series of mistakes coupled with misfortune) on the way back.

Granted, that was during an era when people treated adventurers, scientists, and military officers as the best society had to offer.  Today we have American Idol.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: john smith 19 on 03/06/2013 07:35 pm
I wouldn't rule that out either. With a FH and a hydrogen upper stage you could do this mission with one launch. But it won't be ready for the 2018 opportunity.

True.

I'll note that Spacex have so far proved very fond of common propellants for both stages. Propellant costs are in the noise but propellant logistics costs are not. Likewise I'd guess they would do an engine change out as well, switching over to Raptor across the board.

I'll note from the integrated vehicle fluids studies that LOX boiloff is just not that big a problem if the propellants remain settled, and a very small amount of thrust is necessary to do this.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/06/2013 08:32 pm
Quote from: Robotbeat
Yeah, but all these nice-to-haves increase mass, increase cost, and decrease the chance of the mission actually happening. This mission is going to be /spartan/.

There's spartan, and there's suicidal. Although, having seen 300, maybe there's not that much difference. ;)
 
This mission is supposed to Inspire. It needs to at least pass the Obituary Test.
 
Dying of stupidity ain't very Inspirational...
 

IMO, 1 x FH or even 1 x FH + F9 is just not enough lift for the job. Too many compromises when 2 x FH would provide ample margin.
 
If FH isn't available, probably 3 x D-IV Heavy would do the job, but at many times the price.
 
You're making the assumption that they can't get a reasonable level of reliability from one serviceable ECLSS system when you have two astronauts whose primary job is to exercise, fix the ECLSS (they /could/ devote 8 hours a day to maintaining it...), and do occasional video spots.

But what if you can build a life support system that is reliable/serviceable enough that you don't have that huge of an issue, plus a small amount of open-loop for emergencies? You've reduced the cost by a very significant degree. This is why simply investing more in making a robust ECLSS is probably a better approach than the NASA one of compound conservatism so much that you never get off the ground.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 03/06/2013 08:53 pm
IMO, 1 x FH or even 1 x FH + F9 is just not enough lift for the job. Too many compromises when 2 x FH would provide ample margin.

I don't pretend to know enough to make a valid calculation of my own. But I make a few assumptions.

First assumption is Inspiration Mars are not stupid and they mean what they say.

I understand they say their vehicle would have 10 tons and can be launched to Mars with one Falcon Heavy. My second assumption is they are right and Falcon Heavy could send 10 tons but 10 tons is very very optimistic.

From that I take it that adding ~30% margin and calculate with 13 tons the mission should be doable. Provided that an ECLSS with the required capabilities can be built.

13 tons can be launched with one Falcon 9. Then lift a Falcon Heavy without payload. That should give the upper stage plenty of margin to send the 13 ton stack off to Mars.

Using two Falcon Heavy would require fuel transfer or more than one kickstage. Both options make the mission considerably more complicated to pull off.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 03/07/2013 12:20 am
Ok, Just to throw this out there! I have been a lurker for the past couple of months and have learned a lot.

How hard would it be to create this as a tethered space craft to provide 0.5-1.0 gravity for the trip. The tethered weight at the other end would be the TMI stage.

What does it require to besides an electric winch to reel in/out the tethered mass and thrusters to get the spin going that the crew module should already have (besides more fuel)?

Can a tethered spacecraft stay in the tethered configuration during the Mars fly-by?

What are the costs vs the cost saved by not having to worry about a 501 day zero gravity health effects on the couple.

If it worked this could be one of the biggest bonuses returned next to a proven ECLSS system.

In my opinion, Limited space and satisfactory exercise are not cooperative.

Thanks in advanced for any feedback!!

Answer.  Impossibly difficult.

The first man in space was 1961, it is now 2013.  In the 2013-1961+1 = 53 years we have not produced a manned spacecraft with artificial gravity, so we are not going to do it as a minor task on a very time limited project.

Artificial gravity will be its own project one day and it will take more than 5 years.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: spectre9 on 03/07/2013 12:42 am
Gemni/Agena showed that you can dock with a separately launch propulsion stage in LEO.

This information has been buried and forgotten.

It's like demonstrating the electric vehicle a century ago. Doesn't mean it was a bad idea, just needs about a decade of refinements before it becomes a really good one.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KelvinZero on 03/07/2013 12:57 am
You probably cant really relate 53 years to 5 years. Its not that we have been trying that hard. There isn't anything like a consensus that we need it.

Personally, I think a vehicle to demonstrate tethered gravity and a new life support system would be far more useful and therefore (to me) inspirational than a mars flyby.

Some uses for a project like this, detachable from the ISS:
*Develop the truly reliable and compact long term life support
*Test health under zero-g, moon and mars gravities for 500 day timeframes.
*Be an additional lifeboat/rescue option for the ISS.
*Be the core of (or at least a redundant life-support for) an EML2 base.

And all much safer and probably at lower cost. These additional uses could also help find additional funding.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: spectre9 on 03/07/2013 01:04 am
I wrote decade when I was going for century  :P

Some advanced ECLSS is needed for BEO flight.

It's just there are other areas where you can make up the mission mass without investing in technology developments related to life support.

Advanced cryogenic boiloff and advanced propulsion (like SEP) are much better investments in my opinion.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/07/2013 01:15 am
You probably cant really relate 53 years to 5 years. Its not that we have been trying that hard. There isn't anything like a consensus that we need it.

Personally, I think a vehicle to demonstrate tethered gravity and a new life support system would be far more useful and therefore (to me) inspirational than a mars flyby.

Some uses for a project like this, detachable from the ISS:
*Develop the truly reliable and compact long term life support
*Test health under zero-g, moon and mars gravities for 500 day timeframes.
*Be an additional lifeboat/rescue option for the ISS.
*Be the core of (or at least a redundant life-support for) an EML2 base.

And all much safer and probably at lower cost. These additional uses could also help find additional funding.
I doubt it'd be lower cost, if it's attached to ISS and all the requirements that'd entail.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 03/07/2013 02:20 am
I wrote decade when I was going for century  :P

Some advanced ECLSS is needed for BEO flight.

It's just there are other areas where you can make up the mission mass without investing in technology developments related to life support.

Advanced cryogenic boiloff and advanced propulsion (like SEP) are much better investments in my opinion.

Tito etal argue that state of the art life support meet the criteria.

Advanced cryogenic boiloff and advanced propulsion (like SEP) won't be available in the timescale needed.

We need to read the paper (free online, link already given) and discuss the proposal, not keep coming up with what we would do if we were running the show.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/07/2013 02:43 am
Invest, say, ~$50 million and almost halve the mission mass. Worth it even for a single mission.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KelvinZero on 03/07/2013 04:16 am
I doubt it'd be lower cost, if it's attached to ISS and all the requirements that'd entail.
Um.. I guess I stated that a bit loosely. NASA would be paying for anything like that. I was comparing the cost of a 500 day artificial gravity experiment to a flyby, but the hardware could also do all these other things.


Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/07/2013 04:25 am
I doubt it'd be lower cost, if it's attached to ISS and all the requirements that'd entail.
Um.. I guess I stated that a bit loosely. NASA would be paying for anything like that. I was comparing the cost of a 500 day artificial gravity experiment to a flyby, but the hardware could also do all these other things.



How much was the canceled centrifuge going to cost, for reference? Versus an exercise bike and the suits the Russians wear?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 03/07/2013 04:41 am
Invest, say, ~$50 million and almost halve the mission mass. Worth it even for a single mission.

At the cost of much greater complexity, it would unlikely be ready in time, and is more stuff to develop.

Tito etal are looking at the state of the art, not things that might work in 10 years time after hefty development.

Let's focus on the mission as is, not the mission we want if we were running it.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/07/2013 04:51 am
You'll need reliable ECLSS either way, getting two of them doesn't guarantee success. Also, you add more technical risk with higher mass: multiple launch? more docking events? propellant transfer? Falcon Heavy hydrolox upper? Boosted Delta IV Heavy? Even the launch cost of a single Falcon 9 is about the same. Also, once the ECLSS is demoed, it could be used on other missions as well so it adds value.
Invest, say, ~$50 million and almost halve the mission mass. Worth it even for a single mission.

At the cost of much greater complexity, it would unlikely be ready in time, and is more stuff to develop.
Well, tell that to Tito and Co.

Quote
Let's focus on the mission as is, not the mission we want if we were running it.
PRECISELY what I was saying, and Tito decided to invest on the outset on reliable long-term ECLSS, which is what I was saying.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: RocketmanUS on 03/07/2013 04:56 am
I think the main thing here is the life support system and any other possible items an inverstor could see a return on their investment(s).

Dooms day preppers for their survival shelters would be interested in buying the life support system for their shelters under ground for a self contained system.

Other items might have a domestic sale. A survival suit derived from the space suits, book on how to deal with being kept in small closed space for a long time, ect.

I just don't see why the would not just wait 4 more year till 2022 for Mars-One to send the first crew to land on Mars. If this concept can send crew on a flyby trip of Mars then it could send the Mars on crew to Mars with a lander. There are just to many of these concept organization for space showing up. There is not enough money or engineers for them all. If they joined up then they would have a much better chance of at least one of them seeing the projects throw. Both need a HAB for the crew.

Invest, say, ~$50 million and almost halve the mission mass. Worth it even for a single mission.

At the cost of much greater complexity, it would unlikely be ready in time, and is more stuff to develop.

Tito etal are looking at the state of the art, not things that might work in 10 years time after hefty development.

Let's focus on the mission as is, not the mission we want if we were running it.
What is the mission?
Fund raising? He never did say how much he was going to invest.
And with only so much time left other than Orion or Dragon is there any other spacecraft out there claiming it could return safely from a Mars return?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: spectre9 on 03/07/2013 05:05 am
The developments that can be made in advanced ECLSS are similar in scale to those on the others I mention.

ULA has done a Centaur sunshield study. That one was cool, not that I fully understood all that angles of sunlight stuff.

SEP arrays need little development. Space solar power and electric thrusters are fully qualified. Just need to put them together and work out how to attach the payload.

I listened to the Nathan Strange telecon the other day.

SEP delivers huge payloads to HEO indirect escape then a small chemical push takes it the rest of the way.

That could be done with a Falcon Heavy/Dragon.

Paragon does give us that cool chart. They intend to save about 2000kg with their advances.

I think NASA should throw them a bone out of their technology development budget they do seem like brilliant people and the advances they propose make sense for the longer term.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KelvinZero on 03/07/2013 06:07 am
How much was the canceled centrifuge going to cost, for reference? Versus an exercise bike and the suits the Russians wear?
The reason to experiment with mars and moon gravity is to investigate health effects for long duration stays at future mars and moon bases of course.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/07/2013 06:52 am
IMO, 1 x FH or even 1 x FH + F9 is just not enough lift for the job. Too many compromises when 2 x FH would provide ample margin.

I don't pretend to know enough to make a valid calculation of my own. But I make a few assumptions.

First assumption is Inspiration Mars are not stupid and they mean what they say.

They are not stupid, but the mass estimation is definitely not right. I guess they were in a hurry to publish this because the window is so close.

Quote
I understand they say their vehicle would have 10 tons and can be launched to Mars with one Falcon Heavy. My second assumption is they are right and Falcon Heavy could send 10 tons but 10 tons is very very optimistic.

Falcon Heavy without an improved upper stage can not send 10t to TMI, much less the free return trajectory. SpaceX itself, for their red dragon study, assumed something like 6 to 7 tons to mars. Which is consistent with their published GTO payload of 12 tons. You should think that spacex knows their vehicle best.

Quote
From that I take it that adding ~30% margin and calculate with 13 tons the mission should be doable. Provided that an ECLSS with the required capabilities can be built.

The paper assumes a volume of much more than 10 m^3, but makes no allowance for additional mass for additional pressurized volume. So if you take the assumptions about ECLSS from the paper (they are ECLSS experts, after all), and add reasonable assumptions about mass for pressurized volume and 1000kg for midcourse corrections, we arrive at 13t without any margin. So add some margin and you get 16t, which is what you can launch with a 2xFH mission.

But as I said before, the inspiration mars people are right to focus on ECLSS for now and look for a launcher in 2 years when there will be a bit more clarity.

If they have a good ECLSS, they might get two FH at a steep discount in exchange for ECLSS technology.

Quote
13 tons can be launched with one Falcon 9. Then lift a Falcon Heavy without payload. That should give the upper stage plenty of margin to send the 13 ton stack off to Mars.

Actually, no. The most you can send to the given trajectory (which is not a TMI, but a bit more than that for the free return) with a FH/F9 combo is 12t. And that is making some really generous assumptions. And it also requires an earth departure stage in addition to the FH upper stage.

Quote
Using two Falcon Heavy would require fuel transfer or more than one kickstage. Both options make the mission considerably more complicated to pull off.

The biggest cost is the development cost. If you develop a kick stage, you might as well build two of them.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 03/07/2013 09:09 am
Falcon Heavy without an improved upper stage can not send 10t to TMI, much less the free return trajectory. SpaceX itself, for their red dragon study, assumed something like 6 to 7 tons to mars. Which is consistent with their published GTO payload of 12 tons. You should think that spacex knows their vehicle best.

The Red Dragon study had no upper stage at all. Using a Merlin 1-D based upper stage they could easily throw 10 tons to TMI. If that's what you mean by "improved", then sure.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/07/2013 09:29 am
Falcon Heavy without an improved upper stage can not send 10t to TMI, much less the free return trajectory. SpaceX itself, for their red dragon study, assumed something like 6 to 7 tons to mars. Which is consistent with their published GTO payload of 12 tons. You should think that spacex knows their vehicle best.

The Red Dragon study had no upper stage at all. Using a Merlin 1-D based upper stage they could easily throw 10 tons to TMI. If that's what you mean by "improved", then sure.

You mean a separate TMI stage in addition to the upper stage? That would work, and it would in fact be the only practical way to do this. It is what I have assumed in the dual FH and FH/F9 scenarios. But it would require changes to the launch pad.

And it is not what has been assumed in the paper. In the paper they assume that the second stage does the TMI burn. See paragraph V. They also assume that having a LEO payload of 53t is equivalent to having 10t payload and 43t of excess propellant, which is of course not how it works.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 03/07/2013 09:34 am
They also assume that having a LEO payload of 53t is equivalent to having 10t payload and 43t of excess propellant, which is of course not how it works without stretching the US tanks.

Fixed that slightly to denote it is doable but with some extra work.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: muomega0 on 03/07/2013 12:14 pm
Ok, Just to throw this out there! I have been a lurker for the past couple of months and have learned a lot.

How hard would it be to create this as a tethered space craft to provide 0.5-1.0 gravity for the trip. The tethered weight at the other end would be the TMI stage.

What does it require to besides an electric winch to reel in/out the tethered mass and thrusters to get the spin going that the crew module should already have (besides more fuel)?

Can a tethered spacecraft stay in the tethered configuration during the Mars fly-by?

What are the costs vs the cost saved by not having to worry about a 501 day zero gravity health effects on the couple.

If it worked this could be one of the biggest bonuses returned next to a proven ECLSS system.

In my opinion, Limited space and satisfactory exercise are not cooperative.

Thanks in advanced for any feedback!!

Answer.  Impossibly difficult.

The first man in space was 1961, it is now 2013.  In the 2013-1961+1 = 53 years we have not produced a manned spacecraft with artificial gravity, so we are not going to do it as a minor task on a very time limited project.

Artificial gravity will be its own project one day and it will take more than 5 years.

In context:  its a Minor task for this very limited mass/cost/schedule project :)
One can expect bone loss 1.5% or 10% over a six month trip then must handle aerobrake g loads (http://).  Not sure if there is a thread on bone loss for more recent updates.

design:
tethers have been included in a variable gravity research facility (http://www.artificial-gravity.com/JANNAF-2005-Sorensen.pdf) design.

If you look at figure 8 or 6 in the last link, however, you will notice that more rigid structure than the tether is placed between the power, propulsion, and habitat.   think of pushing a rod with two weights at its cg, and design the rod to handle the off-axis propulsion and the centrifugal force.  Either provide a beam in bending, or distribute the off-axis force between the masses to prevent the bending,  pointing mechanisms, or reel in the tether/beam during propulsion.

tethers have been proposed for many different reasons.
- reboost ISS (http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2006/03/tether-solution-for-iss-study/)
- a slingshot to the moon (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=1296.0) or mxer (http://www.tethers.com/MXTethers2.html)

Cost?  assuming the mass budget was allowed, it would have to be lighter/better than the equipment planned.  Add the launch costs of say $10,000/kg plus the multiplier to push this mass to mars and back.
In the high risk approach, a few folks could design the system, skip testing, and just fly it, to minimize development costs and the 5 year time frame.  the balance between testing and costs is the classic engineering trade.

Sounds like a good *exercise* to work out the numbers.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 03/07/2013 01:20 pm
In the 2013-1961+1 = 53 years we have not produced a manned spacecraft with artificial gravity

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/dd/Gemini_11_patch.png/180px-Gemini_11_patch.png) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gemini_11#Objectives)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: douglas100 on 03/07/2013 02:17 pm
Because there is no need for it at the moment. And essentially no chance of it being developed for Inspiration Mars.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: muomega0 on 03/07/2013 02:33 pm
In the 2013-1961+1 = 53 years we have not produced a manned spacecraft with artificial gravity

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/dd/Gemini_11_patch.png/180px-Gemini_11_patch.png) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gemini_11#Objectives)

A good starting point  :)

Gemini_11 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gemini_11)
and
Agena Target Vehicle (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agena_Target_Vehicle) was an unmanned spacecraft used by NASA during its Gemini program to develop and practice orbital space rendezvous and docking techniques and to perform large orbital changes, in preparation for the Apollo program lunar missions.  ATV and Gemini created a small amount of artificial gravity by spinning the two spacecraft connected by a tether.

any unmanned spacecraft available?  that could practice rendezvous and docking prior to the manned missions too? 

How fast could one launch two of these unmanned spacecraft and hook a tether between them?  could they be a part of a different mission?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/07/2013 04:15 pm
They also assume that having a LEO payload of 53t is equivalent to having 10t payload and 43t of excess propellant, which is of course not how it works without stretching the US tanks.

Fixed that slightly to denote it is doable but with some extra work.

Then your dry mass goes up, reducing the TMI throw weight even further. If you have to modify stage length, it would be better to make a shorter version of the second stage and use it as a third stage/TMI stage.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Nick on 03/07/2013 04:37 pm

A good starting point  :)

Gemini_11 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gemini_11)
and
Agena Target Vehicle (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agena_Target_Vehicle) was an unmanned spacecraft used by NASA during its Gemini program to develop and practice orbital space rendezvous and docking techniques and to perform large orbital changes, in preparation for the Apollo program lunar missions.  ATV and Gemini created a small amount of artificial gravity by spinning the two spacecraft connected by a tether.

any unmanned spacecraft available?  that could practice rendezvous and docking prior to the manned missions too? 

How fast could one launch two of these unmanned spacecraft and hook a tether between them?  could they be a part of a different mission?

I wouldn't get too carried away here. Gemini 11 and its Agena were on a 36m tether and achieved a 55 deg/minute rotation rate, which took some intervention to establish.

I work that out as an "artificial gravity" of about 0.05% of a gee. Certainly it was far too small for the crew to sense for themselves, although it was detected by "dropping" a camera.

Going from that experience to proving a capability to establish a physiologically significant artificial gravity and maintain it stably during a 500 day mission in time to build a spacecraft actually departing in five years' time is probably a tad too optimistic.  ;)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Kaputnik on 03/07/2013 04:44 pm
Pedal operated pumps for moving air and water around could double as crew exercise equipment.  Same could go for power generation as a back-up.

Mick.

I love it. Sort of a Crew Augmented Kinetic Energy system?
Or to put it another way, an ECLSS CAKE

(That's one for all the Brits here)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 03/07/2013 04:54 pm
Then your dry mass goes up, reducing the TMI throw weight even further.

Only unnecessary extra would be the tank mass of empty section after reaching LEO. How much would FH US burn propellant to reach LEO with full payload? That times whatever FH tanks mass fractions is, 1%? You need the MVac anyway so why transport it twice.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 03/07/2013 04:55 pm
Saw the query about a tether system (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31215.msg1023023#msg1023023)

Search around the site on the topic of AG (Artificial Gravity), and you'll find a few mentions of using a tether system.

As pointed out about above, such a thing is not a part of thie Tito mission, and would be fundamentally different, and quite a bit more expensive, since there have been no such large sacle experiments done since that Gemini mission.

As an aside, you could start building a "2001" ring station, by starting with two capsules attached to a hub by tethers.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: adrianwyard on 03/07/2013 05:37 pm
Pedal operated pumps for moving air and water around could double as crew exercise equipment.  Same could go for power generation as a back-up.

Mick.

I love it. Sort of a Crew Augmented Kinetic Energy system?
Or to put it another way, an ECLSS CAKE

(That's one for all the Brits here)

Groan.

(But surviving 500 days in a tin can will require a sense of humo(u)r, so fair game.)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: baldusi on 03/07/2013 05:41 pm
Hey! If Gemini 11 doesn't count as artificial gravity, Gemini 8 should  :P (after all, they almost blacked out).
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 03/07/2013 05:59 pm
Hey! If Gemini 11 doesn't count as artificial gravity, Gemini 8 should  :P (after all, they almost blacked out).

Gemini 11 was a start in intended artificial gravity. Small steps! Gemini 8 produced impractical artificial gravity for it's size, it rolled.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: baldusi on 03/07/2013 06:28 pm
Hey! If Gemini 11 doesn't count as artificial gravity, Gemini 8 should  :P (after all, they almost blacked out).

Gemini 11 was a start in intended artificial gravity. Small steps! Gemini 8 produced impractical artificial gravity for it's size, it rolled.
The  :P is not enough to imply a joke? My bad for missing the [joke][/joke] tags.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 03/07/2013 06:38 pm
The  :P is not enough to imply a joke? My bad for missing the [joke][/joke] tags.

[joke]This is NSF. Aerospace jokes will get dissected! *smiley*[/joke]
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: outward on 03/12/2013 03:01 pm
Sorry if I missed this in the early posts.....but was wondering if anyone had additional details (or knew where to find such) on the gravity assist this flight will get from Mars: what's the deltaV gain? What are some of parameters of the hyperbolic orbit: eccentricity, semi-major axis? And, related to the deltaV change, the spacecraft’s velocity relative to the sun as it reaches and exits Mars’s Sphere of Influence (looking for magnitude and direction [maybe given as flight path angle relative to the Sun/spacecraft radial line])   
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: mlindner on 03/12/2013 06:38 pm
Haven't read the some 38 pages of this. But the idea of sending a man and woman couple for a Mars mission is something I've heard for ages. I remember it my dad mentioning it to me as the ideal Mars mission crew many years ago (was actually multiple couples that were friends). Also, regardless of how people view it, they should be encouraged to join the 200 million mile club as having a healthy amount of sex maintains good relationships. Radical idea is what happens if you hit pregnancy early on in the trip.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 03/12/2013 06:43 pm
Haven't read the some 38 pages of this. But the idea of sending a man and woman couple for a Mars mission is something I've heard for ages. I remember it my dad mentioning it to me as the ideal Mars mission crew many years ago (was actually multiple couples that were friends). Also, regardless of how people view it, they should be encouraged to join the 200 million mile club as having a healthy amount of sex maintains good relationships. Radical idea is what happens if you hit pregnancy early on in the trip.
Just as long as they don't name the baby Valentine Michael Smith.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 03/13/2013 09:21 am
To me, the most important achievement of a successful Inspiration mission is to prove that it can be done.  A lot of sceptics claim that deep space human spaceflight is, by definition, impossible.  Killing that meme could be a major achievement in its own right.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 03/13/2013 10:23 am
To me, the most important achievement of a successful Inspiration mission is to prove that it can be done.  A lot of sceptics claim that deep space human spaceflight is, by definition, impossible.  Killing that meme could be a major achievement in its own right.

Absolutely.  If they pull this off nobody would be able to say that crewed missions to Mars are too hard, too long, too expensive, too risk, too far etc. ever again.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 03/13/2013 11:42 am
To me, the most important achievement of a successful Inspiration mission is to prove that it can be done.  A lot of sceptics claim that deep space human spaceflight is, by definition, impossible.  Killing that meme could be a major achievement in its own right.

Absolutely.  If they pull this off nobody would be able to say that crewed missions to Mars are too hard, too long, too expensive, too risk, too far etc. ever again.

Na... they'll just say "THIS proposal is too hard/long/expensive" for whatever comes next (footsteps, ISRU, etc)

There is never a shortage of Doubting Thomases.

The flipside of this is that if he fails it may set things back even more. (well, except for Elon who I think will go no matter what, as long as SpaceX keeps a fairly reasonable success rate going)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 03/13/2013 12:36 pm
Just as long as they don't name the baby Valentine Michael Smith.

Yer right.  There probably ought to be some legislation about that.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 03/13/2013 12:39 pm
To me, the most important achievement of a successful Inspiration mission is to prove that it can be done.  A lot of sceptics claim that deep space human spaceflight is, by definition, impossible.  Killing that meme could be a major achievement in its own right.

Absolutely.  If they pull this off nobody would be able to say that crewed missions to Mars are too hard, too long, too expensive, too risk, too far etc. ever again.

Na... they'll just say "THIS proposal is too hard/long/expensive" for whatever comes next (footsteps, ISRU, etc)

There is never a shortage of Doubting Thomases.

The flipside of this is that if he fails it may set things back even more. (well, except for Elon who I think will go no matter what, as long as SpaceX keeps a fairly reasonable success rate going)

All of that's fine, but I still don't get why they don't just redo Apollo8?  It takes less than two weeks. Would demonstrate the capability of a private corporation.  Has got to be less risk, less cost.  Would prove just as much.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 03/13/2013 02:04 pm
To me, the most important achievement of a successful Inspiration mission is to prove that it can be done.  A lot of sceptics claim that deep space human spaceflight is, by definition, impossible.  Killing that meme could be a major achievement in its own right.

Absolutely.  If they pull this off nobody would be able to say that crewed missions to Mars are too hard, too long, too expensive, too risk, too far etc. ever again.

Na... they'll just say "THIS proposal is too hard/long/expensive" for whatever comes next (footsteps, ISRU, etc)

There is never a shortage of Doubting Thomases.

The flipside of this is that if he fails it may set things back even more. (well, except for Elon who I think will go no matter what, as long as SpaceX keeps a fairly reasonable success rate going)

All of that's fine, but I still don't get why they don't just redo Apollo8?  It takes less than two weeks. Would demonstrate the capability of a private corporation.  Has got to be less risk, less cost.  Would prove just as much.

"We've already been there", to quote a certain politician.  Dennis Tito is enough of a showman to know that it has to be something unprecedented to capture the popular imagination in any way.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: muomega0 on 03/13/2013 02:57 pm
To me, the most important achievement of a successful Inspiration mission is to prove that it can be done.  A lot of sceptics claim that deep space human spaceflight is, by definition, impossible.  Killing that meme could be a major achievement in its own right.

Absolutely.  If they pull this off nobody would be able to say that crewed missions to Mars are too hard, too long, too expensive, too risk, too far etc. ever again.

Na... they'll just say "THIS proposal is too hard/long/expensive" for whatever comes next (footsteps, ISRU, etc)

There is never a shortage of Doubting Thomases.

The flipside of this is that if he fails it may set things back even more. (well, except for Elon who I think will go no matter what, as long as SpaceX keeps a fairly reasonable success rate going)

All of that's fine, but I still don't get why they don't just redo Apollo8?  It takes less than two weeks. Would demonstrate the capability of a private corporation.  Has got to be less risk, less cost.  Would prove just as much.

"We've already been there", to quote a certain politician.  Dennis Tito is enough of a showman to know that it has to be something unprecedented to capture the popular imagination in any way.

Project Gemini (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Gemini)  - objective was to develop space travel techniques in support of Apollo, which had the goal of landing men on the moon

Project Mercury (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Mercury) - two goals:  human in orbit around the Earth, before the Soviet Union

Tito's mission:  develop and demonstrate the ability of the crew to travel in deep space.  gravity assist and flybys already demonstrated.  Plus is bone loss and radiation data (but limited or no hardware), demo of ECLSS and TPS.

Alternative:  Tito's mission could be tested at ISS, better at L2 because radiation dose similar to Mars trip (or perhaps a lunar orbit like Apollo 8 ) with substantially less risk (short abort time).  So Tito's mission skips  the engineering flights of the Apollo days.

What if they flew fleet leaders before the 2018 launch?  The ECLSS and crew (without the TPS) 530 days prior to launch in 2018 at L2 and a separate test flight and TPS before the combined flight in 2018?    forget 2018, get this thing flying in 2015!  Even 2017 gives a year of data.

Reduced testing reduces costs so the two steps above are skipped with sometimes higher risk (e.g. hubble mirror).

Inspirational?  Perhaps depending on the level of success. 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 03/13/2013 05:05 pm
Two people flying in space for 500 days is not inspirational unless they go somewhere.

And doing a test flight of any similarity to the real deal is going to add schedule pressure and double the cost of the flight hardware.  I would be very surprised if they did not plan for the all-up approach.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: spectre9 on 03/13/2013 06:09 pm
Mars500 was inspirational and it never left Terra firma.

I assert that the same needs to be done with a sealed life support system before the technology is ready.

Nobody understands the issues with doing such a thing better than those that worked on Biosphere 2.  :D
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 03/14/2013 07:04 pm
Additional information from the horse's mouth:
http://spaceref.com/mars/inspiration-mars-some-thoughts-about-our-plan.html

There's an interesting slide in there that describes a ULA two-launch approach.  Curiously, they use the Delta IV to launch the capsule, but I thought man-rating the Delta IV was a no-go.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 03/14/2013 07:28 pm
Additional information from the horse's mouth:
http://spaceref.com/mars/inspiration-mars-some-thoughts-about-our-plan.html

There's an interesting slide in there that describes a ULA two-launch approach.  Curiously, they use the Delta IV to launch the capsule, but I thought man-rating the Delta IV was a no-go.
That link did not work for me but this one did. I think it's the same content but am not sure

http://spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1700

Edit: it's not the same, it's an earlier article making suggestions for mission cost/time reduction. The one linked by Sesqui is the team's answer to that earlier article. Very interesting analysis.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: notsorandom on 03/14/2013 07:49 pm
Additional information from the horse's mouth:
http://spaceref.com/mars/inspiration-mars-some-thoughts-about-our-plan.html

There's an interesting slide in there that describes a ULA two-launch approach.  Curiously, they use the Delta IV to launch the capsule, but I thought man-rating the Delta IV was a no-go.
They also talk about using a SLS/DCSS. Seeing as how it appears to be in their launch vehicle trade space it would be curious to know why they are looking at it. While being the most capable launcher by far it suffers from three major problems. First it would be the most expensive ride up hill. Second it would require some sort of purchase, its unknown if NASA will offer SLS like that. Then there is the time table. The current schedule calls for the first crewed flight in 2019 after their Mars fly-by window closes. To meet the 2018 deadline this would be the second SLS launch.

It is great that they are responding to outside comments and being so open about their own deliberations.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Zed_Noir on 03/14/2013 07:53 pm
Additional information from the horse's mouth:
http://spaceref.com/mars/inspiration-mars-some-thoughts-about-our-plan.html

There's an interesting slide in there that describes a ULA two-launch approach.  Curiously, they use the Delta IV to launch the capsule, but I thought man-rating the Delta IV was a no-go.
That link did not work for me but this one did. I think it's the same content but am not sure

http://spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1700

The second link is for article from March 8th, the first link is for different article from March 13th.

The March 13th link works for me in Chrome.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 03/14/2013 09:02 pm
There's an interesting slide in there that describes a ULA two-launch approach.  Curiously, they use the Delta IV to launch the capsule, but I thought man-rating the Delta IV was a no-go.

Man-rating is a NASA term, that does not necessarily apply to a private mission. Chose a very reliable vehicle and a capsule with abort capability and I see nothing wrong with that.

About SLS, I have not seen it mentioned as a launch option for Inspiration Mars but mentioned as the vehicle for later missions by NASA.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/14/2013 09:48 pm
No reason you couldn't manrate Delta IV. We used to ride ICBMs to space.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 03/14/2013 10:25 pm
Man-rating is a NASA term, that does not necessarily apply to a private mission. Chose a very reliable vehicle and a capsule with abort capability and I see nothing wrong with that.

I'm aware of that.  I thought there were technical reasons why the Delta IV could not be man-rated.  Maybe it was cost-prohibitive; maybe the engineering standards weren't robust enough; maybe it was impossible to put sensors on the engines.  I don't remember exactly, but it was discussed in the DIRECT 2.0 threads.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: baldusi on 03/14/2013 11:05 pm
The RS-68A took care of most of the manrating issues on the engine side. The Fleet Standardization Program will move the Delta IV to the Atlas V avionics that are being man rated. The EDS is already being developed. The 5m DIVUS is being manrated as part of the SLS program (and enlarged a bit). Thus, the man rating effort for Delta IV are a small fraction now of what it was by ESAS time.
Now, the actual need to man rate it is another thing.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: asmi on 03/15/2013 01:22 pm
Wooha, I've read it all!!! 8)
As much as I want for something like that to happen, but non-existent manned Dracon with non-existent reinforced heatshield and non-existent super ECLSS that is going to ride on top of non-existent Falcon Heavy, and all of that is less than 5 years before the start of the mission... Hmm, I might have to agree with that Russian on that one. Unless they start right now and use only completely existent and flight-proven (at least to orbit) hardware, there is no time.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: baldusi on 03/15/2013 01:49 pm
BTW, their C3 need is about 38km˛/s˛. The old RS-68 Delta IV Heavy had a 5.3tonne performance. The RS-68A equipped one should have about 6.4tonnes. Sill not enough.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 03/15/2013 02:23 pm
Wooha, I've read it all!!! 8)
As much as I want for something like that to happen, but non-existent manned Dracon with non-existent reinforced heatshield and non-existent super ECLSS that is going to ride on top of non-existent Falcon Heavy, and all of that is less than 5 years before the start of the mission... Hmm, I might have to agree with that Russian on that one. Unless they start right now and use only completely existent and flight-proven (at least to orbit) hardware, there is no time.

They can go on the assumption that each of these components from SpaceX will be available in time for their flight. It is a very reasonable assumption.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: asmi on 03/15/2013 05:24 pm
They can go on the assumption that each of these components from SpaceX will be available in time for their flight. It is a very reasonable assumption.
That is completely unreasonable assumption given that SpaceX has a history of shifting entering service to the right and their performance turned out to be not what they've promised.
They also will need a lot of time for testing of ECLSS. If they don't want it to be a suicide mission, they will have to have at least one full-duration ECLSS test. The reason is simple - every single such system developed to date has been failing, often in ways that were not anticipated by designers, and so assuming that their system will not fail is simply delusional. The Russians has been in this business for 3 decades, and still their systems fail every once in a while.
There likely are much more reasons why should they have to use existing hardware, but these two alone seems sufficient.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 03/15/2013 07:17 pm
As someone who is not a great fan of this plan:

- They don't have develop non-existent hardware as you've phrased it. If SpaceX is late, then they might not go, but they'll know within about a year if things will be ready on time, so they can easily start work now - it would be silly not to.

- Life support systems have been failing because they were automated. It's not the chemistry that broke down, but the machinery.  I rented a car in Detroit last week. I got with a plastic ice scraper, which proved to be a very reliable system.  If Mitsubishi had tried to build a self-scraping car, I can guarantee you that it would have broke within less than a year.  You see the analogy.  Give them a Glovebox with everything inside, and they can pump/stir/clean/scrape anything they need without a single pump or automated valve.  Let them spend 8 hours a day doing it - it will keep them busy.

- full duration test is mandatory, I agree, but there's enough time for that.

Again though, I think this mission is silly. I don't think there's lack of inspiration to go to Mars.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 03/15/2013 11:33 pm
Wooha, I've read it all!!! 8)
As much as I want for something like that to happen, but non-existent manned Dracon

Which is very likely to exist in the next two years.

Quote
with non-existent reinforced heatshield

Simply an upgrade of the existing shield with thikcer material.

Quote
and non-existent super ECLSS

made up of TRI 9 technology already in use.


Quote
that is going to ride on top of non-existent Falcon Heavy

Which is likely to be proven in the next two years nas there are several paid up launches.

Quote
and all of that is less than 5 years before the start of the mission...
 Hmm, I might have to agree with that Russian on that one. Unless they start right now and use only completely existent and flight-proven (at least to orbit) hardware, there is no time.

Which exactly what they are planning to do.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 03/15/2013 11:44 pm
As someone who is not a great fan of this plan:

- They don't have develop non-existent hardware as you've phrased it. If SpaceX is late, then they might not go, but they'll know within about a year if things will be ready on time, so they can easily start work now - it would be silly not to.

- Life support systems have been failing because they were automated. It's not the chemistry that broke down, but the machinery.  I rented a car in Detroit last week. I got with a plastic ice scraper, which proved to be a very reliable system.  If Mitsubishi had tried to build a self-scraping car, I can guarantee you that it would have broke within less than a year.  You see the analogy.  Give them a Glovebox with everything inside, and they can pump/stir/clean/scrape anything they need without a single pump or automated valve.  Let them spend 8 hours a day doing it - it will keep them busy.- full duration test is mandatory, I agree, but there's enough time for that.

This is a point that the Paragorn people have made repeatedly.

Quote
Again though, I think this mission is silly. I don't think there's lack of inspiration to go to Mars.


There will be a lot more after this mission and, if it is successful, a lot of the myths will have been laid to rest.  It would be silly for a space agency to do this, but not for non-profit organisation.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: asmi on 03/16/2013 02:23 am
Wooha, I've read it all!!! 8)
As much as I want for something like that to happen, but non-existent manned Dracon

Which is very likely to exist in the next two years.
But it doesn't exist right now.

Quote
with non-existent reinforced heatshield

Simply an upgrade of the existing shield with thikcer material.
If everything would be such simple....

Quote
and non-existent super ECLSS

made up of TRI 9 technology already in use.
Nope. All existing ECLSS (both Russian and American) onboard ISS keeps brakin down.

Quote
that is going to ride on top of non-existent Falcon Heavy

Which is likely to be proven in the next two years nas there are several paid up launches.
Again, wishful thinking.

Quote
and all of that is less than 5 years before the start of the mission...
 Hmm, I might have to agree with that Russian on that one. Unless they start right now and use only completely existent and flight-proven (at least to orbit) hardware, there is no time.

Which exactly what they are planning to do.
They should not be planning - they should be doing at that point. You can't solve these problems by simple handwaving and wishful thinking.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 03/16/2013 04:47 am

Quote
Again though, I think this mission is silly. I don't think there's lack of inspiration to go to Mars.


There will be a lot more after this mission and, if it is successful, a lot of the myths will have been laid to rest.  It would be silly for a space agency to do this, but not for non-profit organisation.

Well that's the problem.  Since this is not a technology development mission, there won't be a bigger follow-on after it, since it didn't solve the fundamental issues - it just did a heroic deed with what's available.

If lack of inspiration was the problem, then maybe - but I don't see SpaceX for example having to have an IM mission in order to set their sights on Mars, right?

The correct order of business is: Develop technology, then use it.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 03/16/2013 05:15 am

Quote
Again though, I think this mission is silly. I don't think there's lack of inspiration to go to Mars.


There will be a lot more after this mission and, if it is successful, a lot of the myths will have been laid to rest.  It would be silly for a space agency to do this, but not for non-profit organisation.

Well that's the problem.  Since this is not a technology development mission, there won't be a bigger follow-on after it, since it didn't solve the fundamental issues - it just did a heroic deed with what's available.

If lack of inspiration was the problem, then maybe - but I don't see SpaceX for example having to have an IM mission in order to set their sights on Mars, right?

The correct order of business is: Develop technology, then use it.

It is not so much the technology that needs to be developed as the hardware that neds to be assemblged.  There are certain exceptions of course, all to do with the surface mission.  But if they full it off consider the following will have been demonstrated:

Deep space life support (food storage, oxygen and water recylcing, waste disposal) for 500 days

Earth entry at 14 km/s
, too long etc.
Aerocapture

Crewed operations (communications, radiation & zerogravity countermeasures, human factors, psycho-social interaction) in deep space for 500 days.

Rapid assemblagy of off the shelf technology (TRI 9) into a viable flyby mission.

I don't see how it could possibly said that none of this is going to be relevant to further, more sophisticated missions.

Plus the whole whole mind set that Mars is too far, too expensive, too hard, too dangerous, too long etc. will be thoroughly smashed.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 03/16/2013 05:36 am
"Plus the whole whole mind set that Mars is too far, too expensive, too hard, too dangerous, too long etc. will be thoroughly smashed."

Which to my mind is one of the best possible reasons to do this mission.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robert Thompson on 03/16/2013 06:06 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9thhaG74ax8
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Xplor on 03/16/2013 03:21 pm
"Plus the whole whole mind set that Mars is too far, too expensive, too hard, too dangerous, too long etc. will be thoroughly smashed."

Which to my mind is one of the best possible reasons to do this mission.

Back in the 1960's people had very ambitious dreams and we pursued them whole heartily.  Many never came true, but humanity entered the space age in a rush.  The dreams continued in the 1970’s with talk of space stations, space colonies, solar power satellites resulting in great successes such as Skylab, the  Mariners, Vikings, Pioneers and Voyagers.  The daunting challenges and shifting priorities resulted in delays, cost over runs, scope reductions.  The dreams of the 1960’s and 1970’s seemed just that , dreaming.

Jump ahead to President Bush’s January 14, 2004 Vision for Space Exploration speech.  This was the start of a new era, when dreams once again could be turned into reality.  But the decade since has proven just how challenging space exploration is, the politics even more than the technology. 

Yes, I do think that we need hope, inspiration.  We need once again to feel like the impossible can happen.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: john smith 19 on 03/16/2013 04:40 pm
Answer.  Impossibly difficult.

The first man in space was 1961, it is now 2013.  In the 2013-1961+1 = 53 years we have not produced a manned spacecraft with artificial gravity, so we are not going to do it as a minor task on a very time limited project.

Artificial gravity will be its own project one day and it will take more than 5 years.

IIRC one of the Gemini flights included a small project where they got into a dumbell configuration with the Agena target on a tether to induce some artificial gravity.

Minimal, admittedly (and we still don't know what level of gravity will be needed to give beneficial health effects) but it has been done.

In any event it's probably not a bet-the-mission element to include on the first mission to Mars.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: hop on 03/16/2013 06:37 pm
- Life support systems have been failing because they were automated. It's not the chemistry that broke down, but the machinery.

This is a point that the Paragorn people have made repeatedly.
It's claim Paragon have made repeatedly. Whether it is true remains TBD. Comments up-thread suggest that people who actually work on the ISS systems are less than convinced. While Paragon have built some actual hardware, as far as I know they haven't flown an operational regenerative ECLSS system. Everyone who has actually done that has found it quite difficult, and run into problems not apparent in ground testing.

This is a familiar story for some of us. "New space" player comes along, saying that everyone who has actually done the thing in question has gone about it all wrong, and claiming they will do it much faster/better/cheaper. As they approach real flight hardware, the margin by which they are fast/better/cheaper tends to decrease.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Comga on 03/16/2013 08:38 pm
Perhaps my search fu is weak, but I don't see a reference here to this great commentary on Inspiration Mars by Dennis Wingo. (http://spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1700)  Certainly he is well versed and his thoughts should be considered.  He makes several points.

1 There is a larger array of trajectories.  By including flybys of Venus and the Moon there are trajectories that are a bit shorter, have lower departure velocities which correspond to higher mass limits, lower Earth arrival velocities, and combinations of the above.  Adding other flybys also enhances the exploration value, and the  baseline trajectory already gets as close to the sun as Venus, so this  doesn't increase the thermal requirements.

Unfortunately, the alternate trajectories for which I have seen dates leave a few months to a year earlier that Jan 2018, so they increase schedule pressure, not relieve it.  There must be others.  Wingo talks about gaining over 1 km/sec from a lunar flyby, which would greatly increase the allowable mass, but it seems to me that would decrease the launch window duration.

2 Keeping it simple puts a great emphasis on a single launch.  Hence the importance of reducing the departure velocity and increasing the payload for any given rocket.

3 The use of an inflatable module is questionable.  The spartan mission needs storage room, not so much living volume.  I have not seen any discussion of launching an inflatable module with a lot of stored items inside, but it is not clear that it would be advantageous.  It seems to me that a solid hab module, like the enhanced Cygnus cargo module, would be what they want, but there must be arguments for and against it. 

(I would favor a system like Japanese manned spacecraft concept, where the hab module is below the orbital/reentry module during launch, would not be pulled by the LAS like the Soyuz orbital module, but still attached.  Imagine an enhanced Cygnus module behind a DragonRider, with or without a Dragon Trunk and with or without the Cygnus spacecraft section.  After launch the DragonRider pivots around, and the "arms" retract to effect berthing.  That way the modules are never flying independently and needing independent ACS to dock.)

4 Reducing the Earth reentry velocity with Aerocapture increases the required precision of the navigation.

(Note that a Hab module, unberthed but attached by mechanical arms, would make a good jettisonable drag device, in the fashion, if not scale, of some proposed for planetary aerocapture missions.  When some large fraction of the required acceleration is recorded, the arms are released, and drag decreases instantaneously.)

5 Most importantly, as someone with extensive experience and knowledge, Dennis Wingo doesn't think this is foolish, or crazy, or untenable.   He also doesn't think it is trivial, or cast in stone with all issues resolved.  That he has, and has volunteered, suggestions for improving the plan is very encouraging.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 03/16/2013 08:52 pm
Perhaps my search fu is weak, but I don't see a reference here to this great commentary on Inspiration Mars by Dennis Wingo. (http://spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1700)  Certainly he is well versed and his thoughts should be considered.  He makes several points.

There has also been a detailed response addressing most of these points at
http://spaceref.com/mars/inspiration-mars-some-thoughts-about-our-plan.html

"Our IEEE Paper is an attempt to show the feasibility of the simplest possible Mars flyby mission. We chose a simple Mars flyby trajectory (the one from the Patel reference), and will choose a simple ECLSS, heat shield, etc., using existing designs and technologies on a single launch. We may eventually deviate from these assumptions, but only when we have proven that we must.

The paper is not an attempt to flush out every feasible technology that could be made available in the next 5 years nor does it contain all analysis that has been done by the Inspiration Mars team. Our paper represents the work-in-progress that had been done when the paper's deadline for peer-review came. We added additional details for the IEEE conference last week, and more will come out in the following weeks. We intend for our process to be open and public, and invite input from all sources."



Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 03/16/2013 10:56 pm
Look - regarding inspiration.

If SpaceX was not in the picture, and NASA was still drifting along, mis-managed by congress as it has been for the last, what, 30 years, then sure - we'd need a heroic spartan mission just to give everyone a swift kick in the pants. Even without SpaceX hardware, it might have been possible, and the impact of the mission would have been so profound that it would have been worth the risk.

But in reality, SpaceX does exist, and is definitely headed for a permanent  and sustainable Mars colony.  So the obvious questions are:

- Will the IM mission help SpaceX move along any faster?  Does this manned trip serve as a basis for anything?
- Will the IM mission give NASA any more motivation to get off its butt than SpaceX already has?
- Is it lack of inspiration that's preventing a Mars colony today?

I'd argue that the answers to these questions are all "NO".

But the risk remains.  A failed manned trip is a lot more harmful than a failed ISRU unit, right?

So why put the cart in front of the horse?  Things are going well right now, step after step in a logical order.  This mission does not shorten the critical path between here and a Mars colony.

So IMO it is simply misguided.

Now, some folks have commented along the lines of "why even bring SpaceX into this discussion?".   The answer is that today, de-facto, SpaceX is the major driving force towards Mars exploration.  It cannot be ignored.  Even if you plan the entire IM mission w/o SpaceX hardware, it still wouldn't change that fact.

What I'd like to see is people investing in technology for power and ISRU for Mars surface ops, so scout missions can go as soon as transportation is available.  This would be a much better use of money, and much better inspiration:  How much more supportive is Joe Q Public going to be of a manned Martian mission if there's a powered habitat on the surface with full oxygen and water supplies just waiting for the first Martian?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 03/16/2013 11:18 pm
Now, some folks have commented along the lines of "why even bring SpaceX into this discussion?".

I think there's another way to approach that question: What is the motivation of Dennis Tito? Who else has had that motivation? Do they still have it?

I think the name says it all. His motivation is "Inspiration", which he feels the US (and the world) public is lacking. I think he feels there's insufficient attention or will to send humans to Mars and he's chosen to do a philanthropic mission in order to get that attention and build that will.

Well gee, that sounds familiar:

Quote from: Elon Musk
So my first thought was, if we could do a philanthropic mission to Mars and get the public excited about the idea of going there and then that would lead to an increased budget for NASA and then we could go there. That might, hopefully, work. *

Elon's mission was less ambitious than sending two people around Mars. He just wanted to land a greenhouse on Mars and get a picture of a green plant on a red background.

Quote from: Elon Musk
by the third trip I actually came to the conclusion that I was operating under the wrong premise. That I was actually mistaken about the willingness to send people to Mars to expand the space frontier. In retrospect, it was quite silly of me to think that people were not interested in such a thing or had lost the will to do this. In fact, people had thought that it was not possible for an amount of money that would materially effect their standard of living. So I came to the conclusion that even if we succeeded in doing this mission, that wouldn't be enough. That would perhaps add a little bit more to the will to do it, but it wouldn't make it clear to people that there was a way. This is the case of almost the opposite, if you can show people that there is a way, then there is plenty of will. *

Won't the Inspiration Mars mission have the same problem? Even if it is successful, will the public believe that there is a way to send people to land on Mars, explore it, and eventually colonize it, all without materially effecting their standard of living?

My personal opinion is that Taber MacCallum answered that question at the press conference: they think SLS/Orion are "absolutely necessary" for sending humans to Mars and that NASA needs a large plus up on their budget before they can do that.

* both quotes from: http://shitelonsays.com/transcript/elon-musk-the-future-of-energy-and-transport-2012-11-14
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 03/16/2013 11:32 pm

Well gee, that sounds familiar:

Quote from: Elon Musk
So my first thought was, if we could do a philanthropic mission to Mars and get the public excited about the idea of going there and then that would lead to an increased budget for NASA and then we could go there. That might, hopefully, work. *


All true - but look what happened afterwards.  Elon Musk realized that actually the main problem was NOT lack of inspiration.  It was expensive launch, mediocre contractors, and NASA being a pawn in congress-level pork battles instead of an inspired agency.

So he ended up not only moving away from a philanthropic mission, but also moving away from being just a technology integrator - he had to build everything from scratch.  It took 11 years so far, and will take more - but we are looking at a logical, step-by-step space program - everything that NASA should have done.

And guess what - almost implicitly, inspiration followed. Even silly things like Mars One show that inspiration increased.

---

My point is that once all of this is in motion, the downsides of IM outweigh the upsides, since the upsides are redundant.  If Tito and friends were to invest in building a manned vehicle that is actually a step towards real BEO HSF, and then started testing it like a sane technology development program - I'd be all for it.

Instead, they're taking what's already there (e.g Dragon) and pushing it to achieve a goal it was not designed to perform (500 day free return trip) using life-support technology that a) won't be applicable for a real colony and b) can be tested safely in LEO.

So rathre than creating more inspiration, they're actually just another example of how inspiration is already happening because of SpaceX's progress.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 03/16/2013 11:33 pm
Even without Space X, this kind of mission is certainly do-able with all-Russian hardware - but upgraded of course for better radiation protection and longer life for the Soyuz. Imagine a Mir-like (or Zvzeda) core module with a Soyuz as Earth return vehicle. Since it has several docking ports; attach a couple Progress craft as well, packed with supplies.

To push this lot out of Earth orbit - attach a 'ganged train' of 3 or 4 Block-DM propulsion stages to the rear of the Core module. A lot of launches to assemble this lot (6 or 7?) but a 'bulk buy' from Russia would get you a good price, I suspect. But all Russian hardware? Don't think that would sit well with some people.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 03/16/2013 11:48 pm
The price tag for the proposed lunar free return with Russian hardware is estimated at over $500M (each participant paying $150M and Roscosmos covering the rest) and that's essentially existing hardware. New development would gobble up at least that much again.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 03/17/2013 12:07 am
You're quite right - but my 'idea' above doesn't really require anything newer other than perhaps putting up some high density polyethylene sheeting within the core module. The Space Adventures Lunar mission - which would be pretty cool (James Cameron & Tom Hanks: Step Up!!) would be a subset of that. They use a BRIZ hypergolically-fueled stage to send a Soyuz and an additional Soyuz spherical 'Orbital' module to escape velocity for a 'Free Return' mission.

Doing a Mars mission would 'merely' - I use that word cautiously - entail a bigger Hab module and a lot more propulsion stages to get the cluster of modules on their way.

Launch 1: Mir-type Core module on a Proton.
Launch 2: Progress freighter on a Soyuz to dock with the front end's radial docking port on the Core module.
Launch 3: Soyuz with crew of 2 - docks to Core module's front port.
Launch 4: LOX/kerosene propulsion module on a Proton - docks to rear of Core module. NOTE: if restricted to using 'off the shelf' stages, each Proton would launch 2x Block DM stages at a time. Their modification? Upgraded insulation for the LOX tanks and a small solar panel for 'keep alive' power.
Launch 5: Another propulsion stage(s) on a Proton - docks to previous stages.
Launch 6: Trans-Mars Injection.

The price tag for all that activity would still cost a couple billion, sure. But you get a MARS mission for that money. For about the same cost as a couple of Russian billionaire's Super Yachts...
http://therichestdaily.com/meet-the-1-billion-luxury-mega-yacht-eclipse/
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 03/17/2013 12:15 am
However, whether the Russians could get all this hardware together in time for the January 2018 launch window - even if they were paid in advance - is another matter... ;)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: kkattula on 03/17/2013 12:25 am

All true - but look what happened afterwards.  Elon Musk realized that actually the main problem was NOT lack of inspiration.  It was expensive launch, mediocre contractors, and NASA being a pawn in congress-level pork battles instead of an inspired agency.

So he ended up not only moving away from a philanthropic mission, but also moving away from being just a technology integrator - he had to build everything from scratch.  It took 11 years so far, and will take more - but we are looking at a logical, step-by-step space program - everything that NASA should have done.

And guess what - almost implicitly, inspiration followed. Even silly things like Mars One show that inspiration increased.
...

So yes, it's reasonable to ask: which personal investment of around $100m will have done more (as a seed) to advance the future of space flight? Elon's or Tito's?
 
Unless IM leads to some huge public/private investment, seems likely that founding SpaceX will have been massively more effective.


On the other hand, it's Tito's money, he can spend it however he wants, and we should all be grateful that's on Space rather than a luxury yacht or some over-paid athletes for his favourite sports team. :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 03/17/2013 12:27 am
You're quite right - but my 'idea' above doesn't really require anything newer other than perhaps putting up some high density polyethylene sheeting within the core module.

Where's the ECLSS? That's the new development.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 03/17/2013 03:45 am
Well, yeah true... But with all-Russian hardware they'd probably just use the semi-open loop life support system they had (have?) supplemented by the 'Elektron' oxygen generating system and oxygen making solid 'candles'.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 03/17/2013 04:28 am
So rathre than creating more inspiration, they're actually just another example of how inspiration is already happening because of SpaceX's progress.


And in the process doing something far more inspiring.  Just because you don't find it so does not mean that others don't.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 03/17/2013 04:42 am
Hah! A law of 'Nasaspaceflight.com Physics' - "For every subject posting, there is an equal and opposite Space X posting" whether its relevant or not.

However - I've been just as guilty of it at times...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 03/17/2013 04:43 am
So rathre than creating more inspiration, they're actually just another example of how inspiration is already happening because of SpaceX's progress.


And in the process doing something far more inspiring.  Just because you don't find it so does not mean that others don't.

No, that's not what I said.

What I'm saying is that we're looking at two different things.  One is a disciplined technology program that is aiming for a Mars colony.  The other is a heroic one-time mission.

Sometimes, you need a heroic effort in order to spark change and jump-start the march of progress...  But this is not one of these times, since progress is already marching...  An enthusiastic, disciplined, technology-based effort is already in place.

So yelling "Jeronimo" and charging across the river all by yourself hoping to inspire the troops, when said troops are actually already busy building the bridge across said river, is kind of superfluous and counter productive.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 03/17/2013 06:23 am
Well, yeah true... But with all-Russian hardware they'd probably just use the semi-open loop life support system they had (have?) supplemented by the 'Elektron' oxygen generating system and oxygen making solid 'candles'.

It completely depends on the available mass budget. All current ECLSS systems are too heavy for a Mars trip. They're actually worse than just going completely open-loop.

Here's some numbers from the Plymouth Rock dual-Orion study. If you have 5 tons to spare for the supplies, you're done. Paragon's argument is that they can do the same (and more) with just 1 ton. If they can, that's a worthwhile achievement.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 03/17/2013 06:41 am
Well, I'd be delighted to see them succeed - it will be a game changer. I'm not knowledgeable enough to know if they can succeed in getting their ECLSS down to only 1 metric ton.

Even with a 50% percent mass margin of error, a 1.5 metric ton completely - or nearly so - closed loop life support system that is reliable as a rock and easy to repair and service en-route would definitely be a winner.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 03/17/2013 07:16 am
Well, I'd be delighted to see them succeed - it will be a game changer. I'm not knowledgeable enough to know if they can succeed in getting their ECLSS down to only 1 metric ton.

Even with a 50% percent mass margin of error, a 1.5 metric ton completely - or nearly so - closed loop life support system that is reliable as a rock and easy to repair and service en-route would definitely be a winner.

That's right. It would help a lot for a space station beyond LEO or a moon habitat. But maybe not really for this mission.

5 tons for 2 persons and 500 days for open loop. This mission assumes 3 tons supplys, if I recall correctly. So it is 2 tons saving on consumables with an ECLSS of 1 to 1,5 tons. 1/2 to 1 ton saving.

It may make all the difference if they can stick to their limits and do it with one launch. But if they go over their very tight weight limit and need a second launcher they can easily afford open loop.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 03/17/2013 07:31 am
I'm having a hard time imagining them doing this mission in one launch. A Delta IV-Heavy for instance is a very expensive rocket and if you coupled that with a moderately expensive Atlas V-552, then that's a fair amount of dough for a supposedly austere mission - at least cost wise. And according to some documentation: with some cryogenic propellant transfer as well between the two rocket's stages.

If we take at face value that Elon's Falcons are cheaper (confirmed?), then it would be a two-launch architecture:

Launch 1: Being a Falcon 9.1 from KSC with the chock-full, crewed Dragon (presumably with extra oxygen, nitrogen & water tanks 'plumbed' into the trunk area)
Launch 2: A Falcon Heavy from KSC (or Texas?) with a Falcon 9.1's upper stage as a Earth Departure Stage. The Inflatable or Enhanced Cygnus Hab Module is atop the EDS. Dragon Rendezvous & docks with EDS 24 hours or less after its launch. TMI follows.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 03/17/2013 07:55 am
If we take at face value that Elon's Falcons are cheaper (confirmed?), then it would be a two-launch architecture:

Launch 1: being a Falcon 9.1 from KSC with the chock-full, crewed Dragon (presumably with extra oxygen, nitrogen & water tanks 'plumbed' into the trunk area)
Launch 2:A Falcon Heavy from KSC (or Texas?) with a Falcon 9.1's upper stage as a Earth Departure Stage. The Inflatable or Enhanced Cygnus Hab Module is atop the EDS. Dragon Rendezvous & docks with EDS 24 hours or less after its launch. TMI follows.

The Falcon 9 1.1 can lift the whole stack. The Heavy would supply only the EDS.

Plus you can assemble the stack and shake out the whole system in LEO before launch of the Heavy and earth departure. If anything goes wrong during that time you can still abort. With the EDS in orbit at the same flight you cannot loiter in LEO.

Falcon Heavy from KSC with larger time gap, From Texas or from Shiloh would be better if available. But give them at least one week in LEO before departure.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 03/17/2013 08:17 am
However, whether the Russians could get all this hardware together in time for the January 2018 launch window - even if they were paid in advance - is another matter... ;)

With the recent track record of the Russian aerospace industry, it is very unlikely that it would work. Phobos grunt didn't even get out of LEO even though it was much less ambitious than inspiration mars.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 03/17/2013 02:27 pm
Hah! A law of 'Nasaspaceflight.com Physics' - "For every subject posting, there is an equal and opposite Space X posting" whether its relevant or not.

And another law:  One man's "inspiration" is another man's "hooey".

So yelling "Jeronimo" "Geronimo" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geronimo) and charging across the river all by yourself hoping to inspire the troops, when said troops are actually already busy building the bridge across said river, is kind of superfluous and counter productive.

Fixed that for ya, but your point still holds.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 03/17/2013 06:00 pm
So yelling "Jeronimo" >"Geronimo" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geronimo) and charging across the river all by yourself hoping to inspire the troops, when said troops are actually already busy building the bridge across said river, is kind of superfluous and counter productive.

Fixed that for ya, but your point still holds.

Oooh.   Yeah, thanks.  I actually knew that, but misspelled it anyway.  Was gonna put up the wiki link in reparation, but you beat me to it too.  Sigh.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 04/05/2013 02:55 am
Here's a presentation Inspiration Mars gave to AIAA:
https://www.aiaa.org/KeySpeeches2013/?terms=fiso

Not much new information, but still interesting to read.  Slide 16 says "looked at aerocapture initially", which implies they may not be looking at it any more.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 04/05/2013 01:10 pm
So yes, it's reasonable to ask: which personal investment of around $100m will have done more (as a seed) to advance the future of space flight? Elon's or Tito's?

It is indeed a reasonable question, and there is a clear and definitive answer today.

So rather than creating more inspiration, they're actually just another example of how inspiration is already happening because of SpaceX's progress.

And in the process doing something far more inspiring.  Just because you don't find it so does not mean that others don't.

Inspiration can only provide a motivation for future perspiration, which is fine, in principle.  So far, Mr. Tito is talking about large sums of money as sort of promise that he will perspire, maybe leading to more inspiration.

Put another way, Mr. Tito is talking the talk, but has not yet walked the walk.

Mr. Tito is making a statement to provide a significant sum of money to study the free return mission profile to the point where he could make an investment decision on whether to go forward with hardware.

Mr. Tito has mentioned a sum of money which any individual would find impressive; he is justifiably proud upon having discovered a new trajectory which had not been known previously; he is characteristically vague about how he would proceed; and characteristically optimistic about the future, as he would sketch it out.

Now to that AIAA paper.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChileVerde on 04/05/2013 01:15 pm

I suspect that this is just Tito doing due diligence in checking out all possible launchers, but you never know...

Quote
http://blog.al.com/breaking/2013/04/inspiration_mars_considers_nas.html

Inspiration Mars considers NASA's Space Launch System, ULA rockets for 2018 Mars trip
By Lee Roop
on April 04, 2013 at 10:32 AM, updated April 04, 2013 at 10:33 AM

HUNTSVILLE, Alabama -- Dennis Tito, the man trying to mount a privately funded fly-by mission of Mars in 2018, is considering the Space Launch System being developed by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center as his astronauts' ride to the red planet. A Marshall spokeswoman confirmed Wednesday that Tito and another executive of his Inspiration Mars non-profit organization, visited Marshall March 19 for a briefing on SLS. Marshall is leading development of the booster part of the new heavy-lift rocket for NASA.

"At their request NASA briefed them on the capabilities of SLS and Orion," Marshall spokeswoman Kim Henry said Wednesday. Asked if SLS could support a Mars mission, Henry said that it could. It was not immediately clear, however, how SLS could meet Tito's deadline for a launch of Jan. 15, 2018.

<snip>
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 04/05/2013 01:52 pm
From the AIAA "TouchPoint" slide show.

Page 19:  Fantasy artwork.

Page 20:  This, I'll have to study. 

Page 21:
Quote
1) Mass and power estimates based on ANSI/AIAA G-020-1992, Guide for Estimating and Budgeting Weight and Power Contingencies For Spacecraft Systems

2) Volumes are total volume and do not account for packaging factors

1) Interesting that twenty year old data informs their estimate.

2) There's a certain amount of devil in the packaging factors, since there must be plenty of volume to get to the various necesssaries, as well as the extra volume to package all those MRE's and so forth.

Page 22:  That is an illustration, not an actual piece of hardware.  A six foot person could barely stand up in it.  Just sayin'.

Page 23: "Expert consensus: risk is manageable".  What other answer could the "experts" say, that risk is unmanageable?  Of course not.  Then there'd be no page 24.  Interestingly enough, under the mitigation strategies is "crew selection"; which I interpret to mean "grumpy old men".

Page 24: "Psychological and Behavioral Health".  Several disjointed pictures, were I to present them.  They seem to be asserting that since we have ISS, and since we have a base in Antarctica, and since we tried Biosphere 2, that their plan is feasible? 

There's also a picture of a "Mars 500" facility, but I can't tell if it's a real facility or a CAD image of a facility.  Point being that the facility illustrated on this page is much, much larger than the facility illustrated on page 18.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: notsorandom on 04/05/2013 04:00 pm

I suspect that this is just Tito doing due diligence in checking out all possible launchers, but you never know...

Quote
http://blog.al.com/breaking/2013/04/inspiration_mars_considers_nas.html

Inspiration Mars considers NASA's Space Launch System, ULA rockets for 2018 Mars trip
By Lee Roop
on April 04, 2013 at 10:32 AM, updated April 04, 2013 at 10:33 AM

HUNTSVILLE, Alabama -- Dennis Tito, the man trying to mount a privately funded fly-by mission of Mars in 2018, is considering the Space Launch System being developed by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center as his astronauts' ride to the red planet. A Marshall spokeswoman confirmed Wednesday that Tito and another executive of his Inspiration Mars non-profit organization, visited Marshall March 19 for a briefing on SLS. Marshall is leading development of the booster part of the new heavy-lift rocket for NASA.

"At their request NASA briefed them on the capabilities of SLS and Orion," Marshall spokeswoman Kim Henry said Wednesday. Asked if SLS could support a Mars mission, Henry said that it could. It was not immediately clear, however, how SLS could meet Tito's deadline for a launch of Jan. 15, 2018.

<snip>

If the do chose SLS and manage somehow to get a launch on one then this introduces problems while solving others. They will no longer be as constrained by mass. Which is good because the mission is really cutting it close there. However the schedule then rests on NASA's ability to get SLS fielded by 2018. With the first human crew set to launch on SLS in 2021 this is quite a leap. There has been some talk of a cargo SLS launch in 2019 so moving it up a few years may be doable.

Denis Wingo talked about other trajectory options that would accomplish the same Mars flyby that open in the next few years after their preferred 2018 trajectory. They could go with one of those in 2019 or 2020. Might even get a Venus flyby out of it.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 04/05/2013 04:27 pm
If they choose SLS, they're still constrained by mass, just not as much.  On paper, they don't have do acknowledge being constrained by cash, however.  Furthermore, they will miss their announced launch date by a good while.  I understand from their presentation that there is a 15 year cycle between the preferred launch windows.

On the plus side, for us armchair observers, they report that 53 ton FH could put 20 10 tons in their 2018 trajectory.  If ya wanted to land on Mars, maybe you could build your base in 20 10 ton chunks, assuming that you could repurpose your lander.

Edit:  Whoops.  took the 20 ton typo and ran with it.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 04/05/2013 04:39 pm
On the plus side, for us armchair observers, they report that 53 ton FH could put 20 tons in their 2018 trajectory.

Que? Page 12 says 10 tons.

Quote
Page 22:  That is an illustration, not an actual piece of hardware.

Yeah. Undecided whether I should be inspired by the pretty CGI, or depressed that even test facilities are now in CGI. They could have moved couple of tables together, put a few computers on top, and some inflatable blob behind and taken a real picture.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 04/05/2013 04:44 pm
On the plus side, for us armchair observers, they report that 53 ton FH could put 20 tons in their 2018 trajectory.

Que? Page 12 says 10 tons.

Quote
Page 22:  That is an illustration, not an actual piece of hardware.

Yeah. Undecided whether I should be inspired by the pretty CGI, or depressed that even test facilities are now in CGI. They could have moved couple of tables together, put a few computers on top, and some inflatable blob behind and taken a real picture.

Whoops.  Edited.

CGI test facilities serve only the purpose of padding the resume of hte CAD operator.  They are not inspiring, to me, at least.  How about that other illustration?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 04/05/2013 05:08 pm
How about that other illustration?

Page 18? I find it ominous. Where are all the stars, and what's illuminating the spacecraft from above... other than that, super inspired!
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 04/05/2013 05:20 pm
Huh? Someone tries to push the envelope of human space travel and you're talking about non-inspiring CGI's? Looks like I'm in the wrong movie.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 04/05/2013 07:00 pm
Huh? Someone tries to push the envelope of human space travel and you're talking about non-inspiring CGI's? Looks like I'm in the wrong movie.

Then how come you're not behind my PMP system?  Not inspired? 'Cause I'm certainly making the effort to push a pragmatic envelope.

Talk is cheap even if you're a gazillionaire.  Plus, he's what, the sixth gazillionaire talking about this grand effort, while offering CGI sketches, and unrealistic timetables?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 04/05/2013 07:02 pm
How about that other illustration?

Page 18? I find it ominous. Where are all the stars, and what's illuminating the spacecraft from above... other than that, super inspired!

Nahhhh... not that illustration.  The "Mars 500" illustration.  Look how huge and energy consumptive it must be.  And, not a human actor in site.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Comga on 04/05/2013 07:34 pm
Cue the Teddy Roosevelt quote about critics.
Why do you people even post.  What is accomplished by it?
Let's discuss the detials of their plan, or wait until there is something to discuss.
If there never are sufficient details announced, we can let this slide into oblivion.
That seems unlikely, as it is hard to imagine Tito starting this and just dropping it.  What purpose would that serve for him?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 04/05/2013 07:41 pm
Well yeah, there's one in every crowd.  Critics around here would like to discuss the details, but the details are not forthcoming.  While it is true that if he should start and then quietly stop, that would serve no apparent purpose; it is also true that the bits and pieces which trickle out into the mainstream lack a certain coherency and detail, prompting the skeptics.

To nip the straw man argument, "Whaddaya want him to reveal? Everything?", I would say that the only two options are not revealing "everything" or "nothing".
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 04/06/2013 12:35 am
Has anyone listened to the audio recording (http://www.aerospaceamerica.org/Video%20Library/Maccallum-Carrico.mp3) that accompanies the presentation?  It might (in fact, it very likely will) provide more details than can be gleaned from the slides alone.

I'd listen to it myself, but it's an hour and 17 minutes long.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 04/06/2013 01:18 pm
Has anyone listened to the audio recording (http://www.aerospaceamerica.org/Video%20Library/Maccallum-Carrico.mp3) that accompanies the presentation?  It might (in fact, it very likely will) provide more details than can be gleaned from the slides alone.

I'd listen to it myself, but it's an hour and 17 minutes long.

Good debate point, but who's got the time to listen, transrcribe, analyze, and then write a massive multi-quote post, without any economic incentive to do so?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 04/06/2013 02:33 pm
Has anyone listened to the audio recording (http://www.aerospaceamerica.org/Video%20Library/Maccallum-Carrico.mp3) that accompanies the presentation?  It might (in fact, it very likely will) provide more details than can be gleaned from the slides alone.

I'd listen to it myself, but it's an hour and 17 minutes long.

Good debate point, but who's got the time to listen, transrcribe, analyze, and then write a massive multi-quote post, without any economic incentive to do so?

That, my dear John, is what separates the true Space Geek from the mere hobbyist!  ;)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 04/07/2013 12:15 pm
The "Mars 500" illustration.  Look how huge and energy consumptive it must be.  And, not a human actor in site.

It's not just an illustration, it was real experiment (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MARS-500) but AFAIK had nothing to do with Paragon. Dunno how much it tested ECLSS (if at all), it seems to have been more about psychological/medical studies.

Does Paragon have any existing equipment that they could shove into mock-up capsule right now to begin testing?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 04/07/2013 02:29 pm
R7:  Thanks for that link to "Mars 500".  I knew of the experiment in general, but had forgotten its name.  According to the oracle, the storage module featured an experimental greenhouse, which only hints at the ECLSS part of the experiment.

Again, note how large that facility is, and how energy consumptive it must be.

I'm sure, Mr. Tito's team can arrange for detailed access to the Mars 500 data.  Obviously, he has sufficient access to AIAA as well.  Since no data of any substance has been released for armchair review, there is no evidence suggesting that his proposal is any more realistic than I've suggested.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 04/07/2013 02:31 pm
That, my dear John, is what separates the true Space Geek from the mere hobbyist!  ;)

Hah!  It's Sunday.  As soon as I'm done here, I'll be out in Bio-Rectangle (R), working on a subset of the ECLSS problem: food production on the surface of a benign planet.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 04/07/2013 03:17 pm
I have heard through the presentation. A few notes about it, some with time marks so people can check if I got it right. It's only my personal impresssion and I got what I thought interesting.

Mars is at perihel when the capsule arrives there. That contributes much to the short mission time. Ongoing checks on the details of the trajectory. Depending on launch date and available delta-v there could be slight differences for example on the return speed. Even a little difference will be helpful on reentry.

25:15 Falcon Heavy  They made some assumptions from available data and came up with 10 metric tons of throwmass. SpaceX looked at the numbers and confirmed Falcon Heavy can do it with the upper stage connected the whole flight.

27:15 ULA gave several options involving refuelling using two launches with existing hardware. Listen in for some more details.

28:40 They looked at SLS too.

32:00 Ames research center calculating reentry. There are unknowns in aerocapture. The exact status of theheatshield would be unknown for reentry after aerocapture. They would recommend direct reentry.

They are working on optimizing the trajectory for minimizing return speed. The return speed is high compared to other missions.

36:00 They would want a very small lightweight capsule for reentry. As much as possible of the needed volume should be in the habitat. What is in developing is really larger than they would wish but they can live with it.

37:00 ECLSS Advances mainly in water recycling. Thermal control, active components like valves and the pump must be inside the capsule and accessible for the crew for repairs.

41:20 One problem with life support test is that  it is difficult to accelerate their aging. So tests need to start soon.

42:20 NASA standard 3% increase of radiation related risk of death (meanings unclear to me). The flight is during a solar minimum. An older crew will reduce risk.

Work on ECLSS, thermal control and radiation issues are urgent and presently funded by Dennis Tito.

46:30 Begin Q&A

First question how large is the launch window? A: A few weeks depending on the capabilities of the launch vehicle. Notional Jan 5. Maybe a few weeks, much of it in December. It changes reentry velocity too. Lowest reentry velocity probably with December.

56:40 A flood of emails of people who want to go. Some applicants with very good scientific background and other qualifications.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 04/07/2013 04:19 pm
I missed one quite interesting point. They were also briefly talking about other possible trajectories that would not be free return but require some burn along the way, not just fine adjustments of the trajectory. It is not presently in their plan but they did not rule out using them in the future.

My comment: It would add risk but they need the Dracos for some corrections anyway and Dragon has some delta-v capability. Without being an expert on trajectories I could imagine using just 0.1 km/s during Mars flyby could alter the trajectory a lot.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 04/07/2013 04:31 pm
I missed one quite interesting point. They were also briefly talking about other possible trajectories that would not be free return but require some burn along the way, not just fine adjustments of the trajectory. It is not presently in their plan but they did not rule out using them in the future.

My comment: It would add risk but they need the Dracos for some corrections anyway and Dragon has some delta-v capability. Without being an expert on trajectories I could imagine using just 0.1 km/s during Mars flyby could alter the trajectory a lot.

Depending on how good your trajectory calculations are, you could use a gravitational slingshot at the Moon, at Mars and/or Venus.  Wait a minute, doesn't their orbit miss Venus? Yes, but that's the free-return orbit leaving in January 2018.  Once you allow a different orbit and a different departure date, then other options including additional encounter become possible.

One thing I would insist on: the current 500-day mission duration should be considered the upper limit.  There's no point pushing the ECLSS any harder and the longer the mission, the more weight through TMI you require to sustain the crew.

Regarding in-flight propulsion, I renew my call for SpaceX to develop a LCH4/LOX version of Kestrel as a BEO Dragon's MPS.  It strikes me as the lowest-change modification of any existing in-house engine to get good in-space propulsion.  Probably in the AJ-10's thrust range and a Isp possibly in the 330s.  That would provide a post-TMI abort option as well as plenty of dV for course corrections, especially close to Mars.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ClaytonBirchenough on 04/07/2013 05:38 pm

36:00 They would want a very small lightweight capsule for reentry. As much as possible of the needed volume should be in the habitat. What is in developing is really larger than they would wish but they can live with it.


Seems to me a small BEO capsule needs to be made that can return four astronauts and a minimum amount of scientific payload to Earth. Dragon + Orion are too big for such a purpose and the extra mass saved from a small reentry vehicle could be better used for a larger inflatable habitat.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 04/07/2013 06:32 pm

36:00 They would want a very small lightweight capsule for reentry. As much as possible of the needed volume should be in the habitat. What is in developing is really larger than they would wish but they can live with it.


Seems to me a small BEO capsule needs to be made that can return four astronauts and a minimum amount of scientific payload to Earth. Dragon + Orion are too big for such a purpose and the extra mass saved from a small reentry vehicle could be better used for a larger inflatable habitat.

Unfortunately such a development would be far beyond the scope of Inspiration Mars. They will go with the Dragon. You need to consider that some reentry capsule would have to have an LAS to launch the crew or a separate Crew Taxi would be needed, much complicating the mission.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ClaytonBirchenough on 04/07/2013 06:43 pm

36:00 They would want a very small lightweight capsule for reentry. As much as possible of the needed volume should be in the habitat. What is in developing is really larger than they would wish but they can live with it.


Seems to me a small BEO capsule needs to be made that can return four astronauts and a minimum amount of scientific payload to Earth. Dragon + Orion are too big for such a purpose and the extra mass saved from a small reentry vehicle could be better used for a larger inflatable habitat.

Unfortunately such a development would be far beyond the scope of Inspiration Mars. They will go with the Dragon. You need to consider that some reentry capsule would have to have an LAS to launch the crew or a separate Crew Taxi would be needed, much complicating the mission.


I do understand that, and I was speaking in more general terms saying we could use a capsule like I discussed above for many BEO missions.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 04/07/2013 06:46 pm
I'm still a fan of what some call the 'kissing dragons' but I call 'Duo Dragon'.  Basically you have a Dragonrider crew vehicle and a Dragonlab hab/storage module plus lots of other goodies.

Earth Departure Configuration

[EDS2][Kestrel-M][SM][Dragonrider][Dragonlab][Sensors in trunk][EDS1]

Basically, you do a two-phase Earth departure burn using both Falcon Heavy upper stages to maximise dV.

The Kestrel-M is a LCH4 conversion of the Falcon-1 upper stage engine.  Using methane improves Isp and gives you more bang for the buck when using it on course corrections or even an abort for the first few hours of the mission.

The Service Module is basically a Dragon Trunk with extra ECLSS supplies and maybe extra propellent for the Dracos.  The Dragonlab's trunk contains remote sensing sensors and maybe penetrometer core sampling probes for use during the Mars flyby.  The penetrometer would be used to get data on Phobos and Deimos.

Cruise configuration

<-- Sun

[Kestrel-M][SM][Dragonrider][Dragonlab][Sensors]

I was thinking of maybe having one other element in the stack.  Ames have apparently expressed doubt that the Dragon's heat-shield could handle both aerocapture and re-entry.  So, why not carry an inflatable TPS, attached to the crew vehicle's base, in the top of the trunk? Use the inflatable to aerocapture, jettison it and then you've got a standard Dragon return from LEO re-entry, descent and landing sequence.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ClaytonBirchenough on 04/07/2013 06:56 pm
I'm still a fan of what some call the 'kissing dragons' but I call 'Duo Dragon'.  Basically you have a Dragonrider crew vehicle and a Dragonlab hab/storage module plus lots of other goodies.

Earth Departure Configuration

[EDS2][Kestrel-M][SM][Dragonrider][Dragonlab][Sensors in trunk][EDS1]

Basically, you do a two-phase Earth departure burn using both Falcon Heavy upper stages to maximise dV.

The Kestrel-M is a LCH4 conversion of the Falcon-1 upper stage engine.  Using methane improves Isp and gives you more bang for the buck when using it on course corrections or even an abort for the first few hours of the mission.

The Service Module is basically a Dragon Trunk with extra ECLSS supplies and maybe extra propellent for the Dracos.  The Dragonlab's trunk contains remote sensing sensors and maybe penetrometer core sampling probes for use during the Mars flyby.  The penetrometer would be used to get data on Phobos and Deimos.

Cruise configuration

<-- Sun

[Kestrel-M][SM][Dragonrider][Dragonlab][Sensors]

I was thinking of maybe having one other element in the stack.  Ames have apparently expressed doubt that the Dragon's heat-shield could handle both aerocapture and re-entry.  So, why not carry an inflatable TPS, attached to the crew vehicle's base, in the top of the trunk? Use the inflatable to aerocapture, jettison it and then you've got a standard Dragon return from LEO re-entry, descent and landing sequence.

This reminds me of the Plymouth Rock mission proposed for rendezvous with an asteroid using two Orions. However, IMO developing a methane Kestrel would not be a good idea, stacking on more to do's on Inspiration Mars' already long to do list. Also, keeping the boil-off of the methane Merlin may be a problem. Personally, I prefer storable propellants over other cryogenic propellants.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 04/08/2013 06:21 am
{snip}
Regarding in-flight propulsion, I renew my call for SpaceX to develop a LCH4/LOX version of Kestrel as a BEO Dragon's MPS.  It strikes me as the lowest-change modification of any existing in-house engine to get good in-space propulsion.  Probably in the AJ-10's thrust range and a Isp possibly in the 330s.  That would provide a post-TMI abort option as well as plenty of dV for course corrections, especially close to Mars.

NASA has a methane engine 4,200 lbf and Isp 321s.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 04/08/2013 07:37 am
Two points.

1. I do not really understand the objections to two braking events. Dragons have come back to earth and the heatshield seems ok. Two braking events would not be harsher than one descent from LEO. Also they said they prefer direct landing, that's not a problem too. So no reason to complicate the mission.

2. About additional trajectory changes. I don't think major additional elements would be necessary. What could those changes be? They would have to happen near some celestial body.
That could be a swingy of the moon with a final descent burn near earth. It would require an additional second stage burn after ~1 week. So the active life would need to be extended somewhat but not extremely. I don't know about trajectories so don't know if it would give extra throwmass or delta-v.
The other would be a burn at Mars swingby. You can achieve a very large trajectory change with very small delta-v at that point and it can be done with the Dracos and the standard fuel load of Dragon. It would also be within the calculated lifetime of Dragon so no development needed at all.
The plan calls for the empty second stage to be along for the ride for some protection from solar events so the weight of the second stage needs to be accelerated too but even then more than 100m/s can be achieved by Dragon without modifications.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 04/08/2013 09:44 am
Two points.

1. I do not really understand the objections to two braking events. Dragons have come back to earth and the heatshield seems ok. Two braking events would not be harsher than one descent from LEO. Also they said they prefer direct landing, that's not a problem too. So no reason to complicate the mission.

Um... yeah, the return from the trans-Mars free-return will be more intense even than a return from the Moon (~14 miles/sec, IIRC).  The dV will be about double that for a return from LEO, possibly even greater.  There would have to be an analysis of the decay rate of PICA-X under greater thermal loads and a longer burn period.  Additionally, it would have to be assessed whether the TPS would crack during the inter-braking cooling period.

2. About additional trajectory changes. I don't think major additional elements would be necessary. What could those changes be? They would have to happen near some celestial body.

That could be a swingy of the moon with a final descent burn near earth. It would require an additional second stage burn after ~1 week. So the active life would need to be extended somewhat but not extremely. I don't know about trajectories so don't know if it would give extra throwmass or delta-v.

It's not the throw-mass or delta-V that's the issue, it's opening additional and later departure windows, in case the ambitious 1/2018 window cannot be met.  As matters stand, I understand the next 500-day free-return window doesn't open until 2031, so the option to depart some time in the early 2020s would be welcome as a fall-back.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 04/08/2013 09:53 am
2. About additional trajectory changes. I don't think major additional elements would be necessary. What could those changes be? They would have to happen near some celestial body.

That could be a swingy of the moon with a final descent burn near earth. It would require an additional second stage burn after ~1 week. So the active life would need to be extended somewhat but not extremely. I don't know about trajectories so don't know if it would give extra throwmass or delta-v.

It's not the throw-mass or delta-V that's the issue, it's opening additional and later departure windows, in case the ambitious 1/2018 window cannot be met.  As matters stand, I understand the next 500-day free-return window doesn't open until 2031, so the option to depart some time in the early 2020s would be welcome as a fall-back.

I understand that opening additional launch windows is the reason. But how would that happen? The burn at Mars could do it, and there more throwmass or delta-v is not the issue, I agree.
But more delta-v can open different trajectories too. So there the moon slingshot may help. At least that is my understanding. I may be wrong.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Th
Post by: Solman on 04/10/2013 01:39 am
Two points.

1. I do not really understand the objections to two braking events. Dragons have come back to earth and the heatshield seems ok. Two braking events would not be harsher than one descent from LEO. Also they said they prefer direct landing, that's not a problem too. So no reason to complicate the mission

 Why not just return to the ISS and catch another ride down?
This might mean that a regular Dragon heat shield would be sufficient -  saving development time and money while demonstrating one pass aerocapture which may be very useful in future for a variety of missions. Subsequent aerobraking maneuvers would bring the capsule to LEO from a HEEO after aerocapture. These subsequent maneuvers would not necessarily need a heat shield at all.
 A while back I suggested a Moon-Venus-Mars flyby with a perigee TMI thrust after looping around the Moon and a propulsive maneuver close to Venus. I have an old paper by Ehricke in which a solar thermal thrust at Venus shortened the return from Mars so perhaps it would be Moon-Mars-Venus-Earth using the Dragon's propulsion instead of solar thermal.
 Propulsive maneuvers making risk only a little higher while making the trip faster and offering more launch windows.
it would make for a much more interesting trip.
     
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Th
Post by: ClaytonBirchenough on 04/10/2013 02:12 am
Two points.

1. I do not really understand the objections to two braking events. Dragons have come back to earth and the heatshield seems ok. Two braking events would not be harsher than one descent from LEO. Also they said they prefer direct landing, that's not a problem too. So no reason to complicate the mission

 Why not just return to the ISS and catch another ride down?
This might mean that a regular Dragon heat shield would be sufficient -  saving development time and money while demonstrating one pass aerocapture which may be very useful in future for a variety of missions. Subsequent aerobraking maneuvers would bring the capsule to LEO from a HEEO after aerocapture. These subsequent maneuvers would not necessarily need a heat shield at all.
 A while back I suggested a Moon-Venus-Mars flyby with a perigee TMI thrust after looping around the Moon and a propulsive maneuver close to Venus. I have an old paper by Ehricke in which a solar thermal thrust at Venus shortened the return from Mars so perhaps it would be Moon-Mars-Venus-Earth using the Dragon's propulsion instead of solar thermal.
 Propulsive maneuvers making risk only a little higher while making the trip faster and offering more launch windows.
it would make for a much more interesting trip.
     

Abort options are nearly non-existent I would think in this type of scenario. I certainly would like to have what I would return to Earth with me, as I was going however many thousands of miles an hour towards the Earth.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: notsorandom on 04/10/2013 03:02 am
For a point of reference Inspiration Mars is expecting to enter at 14.2 km/s. The fastest human made object to enter Earth's atmosphere and survive was the Stardust return capsule at 12.9 km/s. They are right to be concerned with this phase of the mission. Although it is not impossible, the Galileo probe hit Jupiter going 47.8 km/s. Not that a human could have survived that deceleration.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 04/10/2013 12:24 pm
Although it is not impossible, the Galileo probe hit Jupiter going 47.8 km/s. Not that a human could have survived that deceleration.

Although the Galileo descent vehicle was more like a Venus probe than anything else, specially built to withstand the enormous accelerations and pressures of the Jovian atmosphere for as long as possible.  IIRC, the optical-wavelength sensor windows were made of diamond.

I think aero-capture followed by a regular descent from either HEO or LEO is the only way to go here and that means looking very carefully at PICA-X's multiple-event capability very carefully.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ClaytonBirchenough on 04/10/2013 11:29 pm
How about using water or liquid waste as a ballast, to increase the ballistic coefficient? As you go through the atmosphere, shoot some of the water out to lower the ballistic coefficient to a normal splashdown. Could be useful in control of deceleration forces. Feasible?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 04/11/2013 09:08 am
How about using water or liquid waste as a ballast, to increase the ballistic coefficient? As you go through the atmosphere, shoot some of the water out to lower the ballistic coefficient to a normal splashdown. Could be useful in control of deceleration forces. Feasible?

Benefit over traditional lift-roll-controlling is... ?

Great gag potential though. "Mars astronauts returning today! Weather forecast predicts golden showers over the Pacific!"
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: douglas100 on 04/11/2013 09:57 am
One advantage Dragon has is that it retains all of its thrusters through re-entry (as opposed to dumping a service module with propulsion capability). This would allow it to correct its trajectory after the first pass through the atmosphere. Any errors after the first entry could be removed and the second entry to be carried out very accurately.

Another point: there has been discussion of how the heat shield would deal with this unprecedented re-entry. Bear in mind the energy is around four times that of an entry from LEO. That means that, everything else being equal, four times as much heat must be dissipated from the ECLSS compared with a LEO entry. Not a trivial problem.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 04/12/2013 01:30 pm
How about using water or liquid waste as a ballast, to increase the ballistic coefficient? As you go through the atmosphere, shoot some of the water out to lower the ballistic coefficient to a normal splashdown. Could be useful in control of deceleration forces. Feasible?

Benefit over traditional lift-roll-controlling is... ?

Great gag potential though. "Mars astronauts returning today! Weather forecast predicts golden showers over the Pacific!"

That's pretty funny.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Occupymars on 04/12/2013 11:06 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4oAQ1pOKnI&feature=share&list=UU4aqwipF4vvV_o27tzTSKjg
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: apace on 04/13/2013 01:09 pm
Listened to the presentation at the 29th national space symposium and I have the feeling, Inspiration Mars get some momentum now. Also if they miss the 2018 deadline, we get some cool new stuff and studies about trajectories, life support system, fast entry, radiation protection and much more.

They are closing much more space act agreements with different Nasa centers in the next months and want to have some life support system test chamber ready end of year.

Selection process for the astronauts will start next year, choose of launch architecture will be finished the next 6 months. Received a lot of proposals from other people and industry.

After all, this looks not as bad as I was thinking first.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: docmordrid on 04/14/2013 02:50 am
Aviation Week article says they have a lot of potentially interested passengers

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/awx_04_12_2013_p0-568289.xml
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 04/16/2013 09:08 pm
It would be interesting if they ending sending *several*, Tito's vehicle plus additional copies paid for by others. Super-unlikely, but very von Braun-ian...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: jongoff on 04/16/2013 09:24 pm
It would be interesting if they ending sending *several*, Tito's vehicle plus additional copies paid for by others. Super-unlikely, but very von Braun-ian...

I don't see that as being very likely, but the whole idea of sending a convoy or armada of vehicles is an intriguing one. It helps provide effective redundancy if they're close enough to help each other.

But yeah, super-unlikely.

~Jon
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 04/24/2013 07:59 pm
Not surprisingly Robert Zubrin likes Inspiration Mars: http://marsartists.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/zubrin-on-inspiration-mars-destination.html (http://marsartists.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/zubrin-on-inspiration-mars-destination.html)

Quote from: Robert Zubrin
The greatest hope here is, this proposal that's been advanced by Dennis Tito, known as Inspiration Mars, to send two people on a Mars fly-by mission, which, will not accomplish very much exploration - except that it will prove that human interplanetary flight is possible. It will thus - as it were - take the dragons off the map…eliminate the paralyzing fear that is preventing NASA from embracing 'humans to Mars' and leaving them without basically any goals for their human spaceflight program right now. [...]
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 04/25/2013 05:39 am
See, if they're really lucky, they'll inspire not only space fans everywhere, but maybe even some crazy billionaire - maybe even (dare I dream?) a billionaire who is also technically competent!

(subtle, isn't it?)

And maybe that hypothetical billionaire will decide to devote himself to the cause of Mars exploration, maybe even habitation.  Maybe even want to retire there!

(wait for it...)

If I dream further, maybe that person that they'll inspire will actually be willing to first tackle the real hard problems of transport, not just the glory work of designing Mars habitats without having a means of getting there.

(I'm on a roll here....)

ok, enough.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Zed_Noir on 04/25/2013 07:10 am
It would be interesting if they ending sending *several*, Tito's vehicle plus additional copies paid for by others. Super-unlikely, but very von Braun-ian...

I don't see that as being very likely, but the whole idea of sending a convoy or armada of vehicles is an intriguing one. It helps provide effective redundancy if they're close enough to help each other.

But yeah, super-unlikely.

~Jon

If I understand the orbital mechanics for the IM mission correctly. It's basically a ballistic flight. While several IM mission crafts is quite unlikely. What about send a companion observer craft to image the mission craft in flight. Some kind of mini sat with a video camera and a comm system with attitude control.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 04/25/2013 12:35 pm
See, if they're really lucky, they'll inspire not only space fans everywhere, but maybe even some crazy billionaire...

Maybe so. 

There is a valid methodology for attracting investment dollars:  build a working model of your marketable design and present it to the investment world.  Heck, that's what DWave claims to be doing.

Usually the model doesn't cost as much as this "model" will.

I think your hypothesis here is quite the stretch, which is, I hope you realize, a criticism of the hypothesis only.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 04/25/2013 02:51 pm
While an "Armada" sounds intriguing, one craft with a little more margin would make the mission safer, meaning a two launch mission.

And that accompanying cameracraft should be semiautonomous and be stored in the trunk and go out only for cameramissions, but be inside for any trajectory change. It can be very lightweight but with a razorthin margin it would probably not be feasible in the basic mission with only one Falcon Heavy.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: AJA on 04/25/2013 06:25 pm
See, if they're really lucky, they'll inspire not only space fans everywhere, but maybe even some crazy billionaire...

Maybe so. 

There is a valid methodology for attracting investment dollars:  build a working model of your marketable design and present it to the investment world.  Heck, that's what DWave claims to be doing.

Usually the model doesn't cost as much as this "model" will.

I think your hypothesis here is quite the stretch, which is, I hope you realize, a criticism of the hypothesis only.

What would Inspiration Mars say if a convincing model needed to be an unmanned capsule return? Would they still go for it?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Comga on 04/25/2013 09:22 pm
(snip)
And that accompanying cameracraft should be semiautonomous and be stored in the trunk and go out only for cameramissions, but be inside for any trajectory change. It can be very lightweight but with a razorthin margin it would probably not be feasible in the basic mission with only one Falcon Heavy.

Exterior photos are a great idea, but your concept has a lot of "mission creep".

The most important photos, the spacecraft against background of Mars during the flyby, have predetermined orientations.  (Opposite the biggest window!)  A fixed camera could take this picture. At times other than closest approach the spacecraft can turn to point the camera.

IM could get our friend Jonathan Goff to build a very, very skinny, several meter long, signal and power bearing, extensible mast on which to mount one or more tiny cameras.  Mount this on the service module.

They could get some great photos, particularly if there was a small porthole visible on that side.  A passenger's face looking out with the Earth / Moon pair in the far distance.  That night shot with the capsule, passenger and the limb of Mars behind them, or the starlit night side. (long exposure)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 04/26/2013 03:01 am
Small nitpick - closest approach will be at local night, so they need a flash :)

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 04/26/2013 11:25 am
Small nitpick - closest approach will be at local night, so they need a flash :)

It wouldn't be closest approach, IMHO.  The best shots will be in the approach and departure phase when the ship is silhouetted against a crescent Mars.

Those pictures alone would have the same impact as the Earth floating above Gene Cernan's head.  Mars... from behind; something no human has seen with their unaided eyes before.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robert Thompson on 04/27/2013 02:00 am
http://www.space.com/20757-private-mars-mission-night-vision.html
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 04/27/2013 03:36 am
If they are going to be watching a screen, they might as well replace the window with an LCD screen and just play videos shot by MRO, synchronized to show what they are supposed to be looking at.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: kkattula on 04/27/2013 04:56 am
If they are going to be watching a screen, they might as well replace the window with an LCD screen and just play videos shot by MRO, synchronized to show what they are supposed to be looking at.

Exactly. 

Since they're now talking about maybe missing the free return window, and having to do some burns, (either using Dragon or a propulsion module), they really ought to seriously consider entering a high Mars orbit.

At a minimum something highly elliptical with a lowish perigee. Spend a couple of days to maybe a week in orbit. Get some close passes in daylight over different terrain.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MP99 on 04/27/2013 08:45 am
Small nitpick - closest approach will be at local night, so they need a flash :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuy9kcC0G_M

 ;D

cheers, Martin
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 04/27/2013 08:31 pm
Small nitpick - closest approach will be at local night, so they need a flash :)


cheers, Martin

OOooh!

Thankyouverymuch, I'm here every evening
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: colbourne on 05/01/2013 01:26 pm
I would expect a private mission will be organised to Mars to give the  astronaut the status of the first man on Mars.
This may be a very low cost mission which will be little more than a Tito style mission with the addition of  aero-capture capability and a landing craft.
Probably the mission would not plan on keeping the astronaut a live for more than a couple of years and with very little comfort.
I would expect this to be organised by a billionaire aged 70+ (or aquaintance of one) maybe already suffering from a terminal illness.

What better way to live for ever in the history books.
Possibly not from the USA, maybe even as a religious pilgrimage.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 05/01/2013 02:56 pm
Source on missing the 2018 free return?



If they are going to be watching a screen, they might as well replace the window with an LCD screen and just play videos shot by MRO, synchronized to show what they are supposed to be looking at.

Exactly. 

Since they're now talking about maybe missing the free return window, and having to do some burns, (either using Dragon or a propulsion module), they really ought to seriously consider entering a high Mars orbit.

At a minimum something highly elliptical with a lowish perigee. Spend a couple of days to maybe a week in orbit. Get some close passes in daylight over different terrain.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ludus on 05/01/2013 07:48 pm
See, if they're really lucky, they'll inspire not only space fans everywhere, but maybe even some crazy billionaire - maybe even (dare I dream?) a billionaire who is also technically competent!

(subtle, isn't it?)

And maybe that hypothetical billionaire will decide to devote himself to the cause of Mars exploration, maybe even habitation.  Maybe even want to retire there!

(wait for it...)

If I dream further, maybe that person that they'll inspire will actually be willing to first tackle the real hard problems of transport, not just the glory work of designing Mars habitats without having a means of getting there.

(I'm on a roll here....)

ok, enough.



The easier stretch with billionaire patrons is for Tito's seed money and idea to get one of the big guys interest as a legacy/pr/fun thing. By big guy I mean somebody with more than 10B net worth of which there are several candidates like Page or Brin, Allen, Bezos, or somebody that hasn't shown much interest in space yet. That person would just have to throw their credit behind the project to suddenly make it a real thing. [Where 100M from Tito representing maybe 5% of the budget doesn't generate any confidence] Like any actual frugal billionaire they could realistically assume that it wouldn't ultimately cost them anything and would gain them valuable publicity and influence. Once they put their money behind the project...it would instantly become much more saleable as a media event and would likely be able to raise enough though various channels (lucrative reality tv, branding, product placement, etc) to cover all costs. Once it's "real" with full funding guarantee by someone with the capital to be credible other people with media and advertising chops (and often considerable wealth) like James Cameron or Branson would likely be open to being associated.

Musk and SpaceX would be pulled in as prime contractor once the money was really there and I'm sure would be delighted.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 05/01/2013 08:50 pm
Where 100M from Tito representing maybe 5% of the budget

That would mean 2 Billion total mission cost. No way they could spend that much. Even with a dual Heavy launch mission.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ludus on 05/02/2013 04:03 am
Where 100M from Tito representing maybe 5% of the budget

That would mean 2 Billion total mission cost. No way they could spend that much. Even with a dual Heavy launch.


By traditional budget standards $20B would be low...but there is a lot of R&D for lifesupport, realistically they ought to have several FH launches, they ought to occupy and shakedown the Dragon/bigelow hab vehicle in neo. At present nobody has ever lived in a bigelow hab. They probably ought to do something like a zond style lunar free return dragon/FH mission first. $2B seems like enough backing to take it seriously. The budget has to pay for a significant professional staff and facilities over years, it's not just paying SpaceX and Bigelow for hardware and services. It would likely end up costing more than that but I think that would be enough backing to get it going as a catalyst.

I also think $2B is very achievable over the years before and during the mission just from media and marketing sales. There are several years of build-up and the mission itself is over 500 days. Gross for Avatar is pushing $3B, other media/marketing events that are global but short duration like the olympics or the world cup are in that ballpark.



Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 05/02/2013 05:16 am
By traditional budget standards $20B would be low...

There you have what's wrong with the traditional standards in one sentence.

but there is a lot of R&D for lifesupport, realistically they ought to have several FH launches, they ought to occupy and shakedown the Dragon/bigelow hab vehicle in neo.

For the mission you need one Falcon Heavy for the booster, maybe with extended upper stage tank, no mission hardware and one Falcon with a 13 ton mission hardware stack. That should be much more doable than that 10 ton mass budget with one launch.

At present nobody has ever lived in a bigelow hab. They probably ought to do something like a zond style lunar free return dragon/FH mission first.

Not planned and really not needed. A Bigelow habitat will be ok. I agree that some in space testing of life support would be desirable and you could take the habitat with you for a test in LEO. That's one Falcon 9 mission, 250 million.

$2B seems like enough backing to take it seriously. The budget has to pay for a significant professional staff and facilities over years, it's not just paying SpaceX and Bigelow for hardware and services. It would likely end up costing more than that but I think that would be enough backing to get it going as a catalyst.

You would not have a NASA style mission center. Needed experts would not be on duty for the mission duration. Someone would be in place for 12 hours, experts can be called in if and when required. And even if you have a qualified staff of 8 to 12 permanently in place that would be one or two Million for the mission duration.

Edit for clarification. I mean 8 to 12 staff total in shifts so there is always at least one person on site, several during the day.

Hard to see how 1 Billion Dollar could be spent even with that LEO test mission, which will not happen though I agree it would be desirable. They did talk to start long duration tests of the ECLSS soon but here on earth.

I also think $2B is very achievable over the years before and during the mission just from media and marketing sales. There are several years of build-up and the mission itself is over 500 days. Gross for Avatar is pushing $3B, other media/marketing events that are global but short duration like the olympics or the world cup are in that ballpark.

That revenue estimate may be realistic if a bit optimistic. But one Billion could be raised if someone advances that amount and take the risk not to recover it all. Having Red Bull on the team would help as they are very experienced in how to run something like that.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Comga on 05/02/2013 06:05 am
Small nitpick - closest approach will be at local night, so they need a flash :)

That closest approach is over the nightside is a well known part of the mission plan.

Even without the night vision goggles Henault refers to for the passengers, modern cameras are extremely sensitive.  It might take a fast lens and a long exposure to get the images in starlight, but it can be done. 

Everybody's a critic ::)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Comga on 05/02/2013 06:14 am
And now it's my turn. ;D

I know the Inspiration Mars graphic has what looks like an inflatable hab module, which leads people to think of Bigelow, but I really doubt that an inflatable module does what they need.  If they want storage space and a simple, serviceable ECLS they will go with a rigid module.  I would think more along the lines of of the Cygnus cargo compartment.  Mount it below the Dragon trunk and dock to it (or better berth to it by never letting go) in Earth orbit or after TMI.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: kkattula on 05/02/2013 08:50 am
And now it's my turn. ;D

I know the Inspiration Mars graphic has what looks like an inflatable hab module, which leads people to think of Bigelow, but I really doubt that an inflatable module does what they need.  If they want storage space and a simple, serviceable ECLS they will go with a rigid module.  I would think more along the lines of of the Cygnus cargo compartment.  Mount it below the Dragon trunk and dock to it (or better berth to it by never letting go) in Earth orbit or after TMI.

Cygnus PCM weighs 1500kg for 18.9m3 of volume. By comparison, BEAM will be 1360kg for only 16m3.
 
A expandable might offer better radiation protection, whereas a rigid won't require outfitting after launch.
 
 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 05/02/2013 09:02 am
Cygnus PCM weighs 1500kg for 18.9m3 of volume.

Soon to be 1800 kg for 27 m3 of volume.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: kkattula on 05/02/2013 09:31 am
One thing that worries me is if a single FH (or similar) launch to TMI were to be the plan. There wouldn't be time to make sure everything was working before they were committed to the long haul.

I'd want a few days in LEO to get a baseline to make sure the air and water recycling were performing at a level that would allow the loss replenishment supplies to last through the whole mission.

If two launches are required, then there's obviously time after rendezvous and docking to shake things down before TMI.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 05/02/2013 09:56 am
I'd want a few days in LEO to get a baseline to make sure the air and water recycling were performing at a level that would allow the loss replenishment supplies to last through the whole mission.

If two launches are required, then there's obviously time after rendezvous and docking to shake things down before TMI.


That's why I like the two launch approach too. First launch the mission stack with the astronauts. They will have some time to shake down their equipment. After a week or so launch the second vehicle, dock and off it goes to Mars without further delay.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 05/02/2013 01:35 pm
Rigid Module = Bigelow inflatable.

ISS, Cygnus, ATV, etc modules are not considered rigid modules, they are straight up metal.


And now it's my turn. ;D

I know the Inspiration Mars graphic has what looks like an inflatable hab module, which leads people to think of Bigelow, but I really doubt that an inflatable module does what they need.  If they want storage space and a simple, serviceable ECLS they will go with a rigid module.  I would think more along the lines of of the Cygnus cargo compartment.  Mount it below the Dragon trunk and dock to it (or better berth to it by never letting go) in Earth orbit or after TMI.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 05/20/2013 08:37 pm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/19/inspiration-mars-foundation-rocket-flyby-red-planet_n_3298465.html


The ULA option is interesting. Is he trying to describe launching a crew module on a DIV-Heavy and then refueling the DSSC for TMI with LH2/LOX from the Centaur that came up on an Atlas V?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Zed_Noir on 05/21/2013 08:49 am
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/19/inspiration-mars-foundation-rocket-flyby-red-planet_n_3298465.html


The ULA option is interesting. Is he trying to describe launching a crew module on a DIV-Heavy and then refueling the DSSC for TMI with LH2/LOX from the Centaur that came up on an Atlas V?

Think the reporter is confused. You could launched a CST-100 on a soon to be man-rated Atlas V. The Delta IV is not going to be man-rated any time soon. It's more likely to launch the crewed CST-100 on Atlas V 412 and bring up the hab module on a delta IV. Using the DCSS as EDS stage after orbital rendez-vous.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 05/21/2013 07:09 pm
No, the reporter is accurately reporting the confusing option.  As I posted here (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31215.msg1026402#msg1026402), the Inspiration Mars presentation uses the Delta IV to launch the crew vehicle.  Baldusi's post here (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31215.msg1026476#msg1026476) claims that man-rating the Delta IV isn't as unlikely as first assumed.

Unfortunately, the article doesn't provide any new information that hasn't already been posted in this thread.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 05/21/2013 08:00 pm
Unfortunately, the article doesn't provide any new information that hasn't already been posted in this thread.

LOL, maybe they sourced it here. :)

How late can IM wait before selecting a vehicle?  FH seems cheapest but a) hasn't flown yet and b) needs a better upper stage
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 05/21/2013 08:52 pm
From everything I have heard, they need to make the selection soon or the whole thing is off. It could get very interesting.

Interesting to see SLS even listed as an option. Too bad their launch window is so soon after the planned EM-1 launch... certainly sending everything up at once would be simpler. Not taking cost into mind with that statement obviously.

Perhaps a deal will be worked out for two vehicles to be built at once and Tito will get a fairly untested booster. Just thinking out loud, I know it sounds outlandish.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: jongoff on 05/21/2013 09:15 pm
No, the reporter is accurately reporting the confusing option.  As I posted here (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31215.msg1026402#msg1026402), the Inspiration Mars presentation uses the Delta IV to launch the crew vehicle.  Baldusi's post here (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31215.msg1026476#msg1026476) claims that man-rating the Delta IV isn't as unlikely as first assumed.

Unfortunately, the article doesn't provide any new information that hasn't already been posted in this thread.

I think they were only talking about transferring LOX from a tank launched by an Atlas V 551 or 552, and having the capsule, hab module, and departure DCSS (with LH2) launched on the Delta-IVH. I think that NASA human rating standards, and what is actually needed for safe flight may be two vaguely (barely?) related concepts.

Having read the article now, I think the reporter did a good job other than being vague about which propellant would be transferred.

~Jon
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: jongoff on 05/21/2013 09:19 pm
From everything I have heard, they need to make the selection soon or the whole thing is off. It could get very interesting.

Interesting to see SLS even listed as an option. Too bad their launch window is so soon after the planned EM-1 launch... certainly sending everything up at once would be simpler. Not taking cost into mind with that statement obviously.

Perhaps a deal will be worked out for two vehicles to be built at once and Tito will get a fairly untested booster. Just thinking out loud, I know it sounds outlandish.

Personally, while the ULA option is more challenging, I hope its the one that gets selected. I think it gives you more margin than Falcon Heavy, and while more expensive, would at least leave behind cryo propellant transfer as a legacy (in addition to experience with developing a robust, maintainable life support system capable of long-duration spaceflight). And the less I say about SLS, the better.

~Jon
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 05/21/2013 09:39 pm
Personally, while the ULA option is more challenging, I hope its the one that gets selected. I think it gives you more margin than Falcon Heavy, and while more expensive, would at least leave behind cryo propellant transfer as a legacy (in addition to experience with developing a robust, maintainable life support system capable of long-duration spaceflight). And the less I say about SLS, the better.

Agree with all the above. Wonder if they would waive their stated desire for a single vehicle launch in order to derive the benefits that additional upmass give?[1] Propellant transfer is on the way to ACES, which is goodness.

Also .. roger that last sentence. I really need to learn to shut up about SLS too, at least here (Facebook, on the other hand is a free fire zone for SLS as far as my wall goes)

1 - But if they do, they may well choose an F9 and a FH, who knows.  Musk presumably wants something equivalent to ACES with IVF sooner or later.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ClaytonBirchenough on 06/21/2013 01:41 am
Any new news? Is Inspiration Mars making any headway? Any new information would be appreciated.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 06/24/2013 03:00 pm
Any new news? Is Inspiration Mars making any headway? Any new information would be appreciated.

There is an old saying that "no news is good news".  We're unlikely to hear anything substantive for a while unless the effort founders.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 06/25/2013 12:52 am
Any new news? Is Inspiration Mars making any headway? Any new information would be appreciated.

There is an old saying that "no news is good news".  We're unlikely to hear anything substantive for a while unless the effort founders.

In cases like this, "no news" also carries connotations.  Look at the PRI effort as a comparison.  The heist has been nixed in early Congressional language; they have responded almost immediately with a  crowdfunded thingy geared towards exo-planets.  They make a deliberate effort to stay in the news.  This group not so much.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 06/25/2013 08:24 am
At least Paragon should be well funded and busy doing the ECLSS work. They have now like three customers asking for the same thing, no?

Mars Foundation, Golden Spike and Mars One
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 06/25/2013 08:48 am
At least Paragon should be well funded and busy doing the ECLSS work. They have now like three customers asking for the same thing, no?

Mars Foundation, Golden Spike and Mars One

Don't forget they're responsible for the ECLSS on all the commercial crew vehicles, last I heard.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 06/26/2013 12:09 am
In cases like this, "no news" also carries connotations.  Look at the PRI effort as a comparison.  The heist has been nixed in early Congressional language; they have responded almost immediately with a  crowdfunded thingy geared towards exo-planets.  They make a deliberate effort to stay in the news.  This group not so much.

What news, though?  Space stuff takes time.  They can't stay in the news if they are literally not ready to show anybody anything -- even if they are making good progress.

Look at their twitter feed (https://twitter.com/inspirationmars).  I appreciate their effort to engage with the public, but a large percentage of their tweets are some variation of "We're going to Mars!  Join us and like us on Facebook!"
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 06/26/2013 12:32 pm
In cases like this, "no news" also carries connotations.  Look at the PRI effort as a comparison.  The heist has been nixed in early Congressional language; they have responded almost immediately with a  crowdfunded thingy geared towards exo-planets.  They make a deliberate effort to stay in the news.  This group not so much.

What news, though?  Space stuff takes time.  They can't stay in the news if they are literally not ready to show anybody anything -- even if they are making good progress.

Look at their twitter feed (https://twitter.com/inspirationmars).  I appreciate their effort to engage with the public, but a large percentage of their tweets are some variation of "We're going to Mars!  Join us and like us on Facebook!"

"What news?"  "Look at their Twitttering."  Like I said, no news carries connotations.  I would add that the connotations change as time goes on.

I did take another look at their site, and stick with my earlier tentative assessment for the time being.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Russel on 06/26/2013 02:12 pm
Where exactly is the design for their "habitat"?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 07/03/2013 07:42 pm
Interesting twitter exchange:

https://twitter.com/rocketrepreneur/status/352480576873304064 (https://twitter.com/rocketrepreneur/status/352480576873304064)

Quote
@rocketrepreneur: @InspirationMars You guys going to open up any way for normal folks to donate to the cause, like the @B612foundation does?

https://twitter.com/inspirationmars/status/352483176242876416 (https://twitter.com/inspirationmars/status/352483176242876416)

Quote
@InspirationMars: @rocketrepreneur We appreciate your desire to donate. We're working on making it easy & to make the result tangible. next couple months...

Buoyed up by Planetary Resources' KS success, or something else?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: sanman on 07/13/2013 02:55 am
I think they should raise funds and awareness for their project by putting out another sequel to the movie BioDome starring Paulie Shore.

Jayne Pointer and her husband K̶e̶i̶f̶e̶r̶ ̶S̶u̶t̶h̶e̶r̶l̶a̶n̶d̶ Taber McCallum could do guest cameos.  :-X
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: go4mars on 07/16/2013 10:25 pm
Dennis Tito is presenting at the Mars Society convention in Boulder CO in a few weeks.

https://sites.google.com/a/marssociety.org/www/conventions/2013/schedule
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 07/17/2013 12:47 am
Steve Guetersloh of Texas A & M who isheading up their space weather forcasting section, gave a presentation earlier this month at the Asia-Oceania Geoscience Society Conference in Brisbane.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 08/16/2013 08:23 pm
*bump*

Dennis Tito spoke this morning at the Mars Society conference.  Did anybody take notes?

It sounds like the talks will eventually be archived here (https://www.youtube.com/TheMarsSociety), but I'm impatient. :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 08/16/2013 08:59 pm
This has some stuff:
https://twitter.com/b0yle
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 08/16/2013 09:16 pm
I just found this article from yesterday which has some tantalizing tidbits from Taber MacCallum:
http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2013/08/inspiration-mars-is-absolutely-feeling-the-time-crunch-as-2018-looms/
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 08/18/2013 02:11 am
(Surprise!)

Inspiration Mars needs NASA funding:

http://www.nbcnews.com/science/millionaire-seeks-assist-inspiration-mars-mission-6C10932930

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: spectre9 on 08/18/2013 02:50 am
Haven't they been asking for NASA involvement since the start?

2018 might be extremely ambitious but I think 2033 is only slightly less ambitious.

What's the bet nobody goes to Mars until 2047?  :-\

It seems like every plan to go to Mars is based on these 15 year conjunctions. Never actually realized that until now lol
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MickQ on 08/21/2013 10:16 am
Haven't they been asking for NASA involvement since the start?

2018 might be extremely ambitious but I think 2033 is only slightly less ambitious.

What's the bet nobody goes to Mars until 2047?  :-\

It seems like every plan to go to Mars is based on these 15 year conjunctions. Never actually realized that until now lol


How about Mars One ??    2023 !

Mick.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: colbourne on 08/22/2013 02:03 am
Haven't they been asking for NASA involvement since the start?

2018 might be extremely ambitious but I think 2033 is only slightly less ambitious.

What's the bet nobody goes to Mars until 2047?  :-\

It seems like every plan to go to Mars is based on these 15 year conjunctions. Never actually realized that until now lol

Many people with resources will not have the patience to wait till 2047. I am sure there will be missions before this time. Whether they can survive on Mars and can return home is another matter. I expect the first human to be on Mars within 15 years.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 08/22/2013 02:17 am
Haven't they been asking for NASA involvement since the start?

2018 might be extremely ambitious but I think 2033 is only slightly less ambitious.

What's the bet nobody goes to Mars until 2047?  :-\

It seems like every plan to go to Mars is based on these 15 year conjunctions. Never actually realized that until now lol

What makes you think 2033 is ambitous?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 08/22/2013 10:42 am
Haven't they been asking for NASA involvement since the start?

2018 might be extremely ambitious but I think 2033 is only slightly less ambitious.

What's the bet nobody goes to Mars until 2047?  :-\

It seems like every plan to go to Mars is based on these 15 year conjunctions. Never actually realized that until now lol

What makes you think 2033 is ambitous?

Funding; always funding.  Is it possible to put together the money needed for the spacecraft and vehicle in anything less than twenty years?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 08/22/2013 11:29 am
Haven't they been asking for NASA involvement since the start?

2018 might be extremely ambitious but I think 2033 is only slightly less ambitious.

What's the bet nobody goes to Mars until 2047?  :-\

It seems like every plan to go to Mars is based on these 15 year conjunctions. Never actually realized that until now lol

What makes you think 2033 is ambitous?

Funding; always funding.  Is it possible to put together the money needed for the spacecraft and vehicle in anything less than twenty years?

For something as straight forward as this? Easily. 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: spectre9 on 08/23/2013 08:22 am
What makes you think 2033 is ambitous?

Mars is always 30 years away no matter how much time passes.

20 years is even more ambitious than that.

It's not just money. There's a lot of technology that needs to be developed and even with unlimited cash you can't just conjure it up within a couple of years.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 08/23/2013 06:00 pm
Not a lot of technology is needed for a flyby mission. Pretty much just money. The technology development would be to reduce the amount of money needed (i.e. so you could do it in just a couple launches).
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 08/23/2013 10:19 pm
Not a lot of technology is needed for a flyby mission. Pretty much just money. The technology development would be to reduce the amount of money needed (i.e. so you could do it in just a couple launches).

Always it's launch vehicles with you people...

The tall pole in this tent is a reliable life support system, one that won't die or severely degrade during this long mission. NASA hasn't built one yet, and they happen to be the experts in it. If anybody is going to throw any money at all at this mission concept, that is the place to throw it.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Vultur on 08/24/2013 12:08 am
Not a lot of technology is needed for a flyby mission. Pretty much just money. The technology development would be to reduce the amount of money needed (i.e. so you could do it in just a couple launches).

Always it's launch vehicles with you people...

The tall pole in this tent is a reliable life support system, one that won't die or severely degrade during this long mission. NASA hasn't built one yet, and they happen to be the experts in it. If anybody is going to throw any money at all at this mission concept, that is the place to throw it.

I think Robotbeat is right here. You COULD do a 500 day mission without any especially complex ECLSS, it would just mean a lot of mass in food, water, oxygen, and CO2 scrubbing canisters.

It might actually be doable, if you bring drinking water only, and do ALL cleaning with sanitary wipes of some sort, which are much less massive.

But there's not really much point... if we just keep doing missions that don't require reliable ECLSS, will the reliable ECLSS ever be developed?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 08/24/2013 12:35 am
What makes you think 2033 is ambitous?

Mars is always 30 years away no matter how much time passes.

20 years is even more ambitious than that.

It's not just money. There's a lot of technology that needs to be developed and even with unlimited cash you can't just conjure it up within a couple of years.

"Mars is always 30 years away" is just a cynical slogan.

What really makes you think that a 501 day free return crewed flyby is not achievable in 20 years?

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 08/24/2013 12:38 am
The tall pole in this tent is a reliable life support system, one that won't die or severely degrade during this long mission. NASA hasn't built one yet, and they happen to be the experts in it. If anybody is going to throw any money at all at this mission concept, that is the place to throw it.

We have had life support systems that have operated in space for than 500 days for three decades.  You just need to ensure you have the skills, tools and spares to hand.  How does this equate to a "tall pole"?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 08/24/2013 12:40 am
We have had life support systems that have operated in space for than 500 days for three decades.  You just need to ensure you have the skills, tools and spares to hand.  How does this equate to a "tall pole"?

Good luck flying that to Mars.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: go4mars on 08/24/2013 12:45 am
http://www.marssociety.org/home/inspiration-mars/rules


Mars Society contest for funnelling ideas to inspiration Mars.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Vultur on 08/24/2013 01:47 am
I totally believe they could do it in January 2018 if they had sufficient money. I'm just skeptical that they'll get that.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 08/24/2013 02:45 am
The certainly have enough money for the next couple of years, that will enough to demonstrate the technical, as opposed to conceptual viability of the project.  After that we will see.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KelvinZero on 08/24/2013 03:40 am
We have had life support systems that have operated in space for than 500 days for three decades.  You just need to ensure you have the skills, tools and spares to hand.  How does this equate to a "tall pole"?

Hasn't Dennis Tito made it clear that the life support is the key new technology yet to be developed?

This is the part of the scheme that actually excites me, that the core is to develop this life support. It is something we will always have from that day forwards because it is primarily knowledge. I dont think that sort of advance can be thrown away the same way a launch architecture can, setting us back to square one.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 08/24/2013 04:13 am

We have had life support systems that have operated in space for than 500 days for three decades.  You just need to ensure you have the skills, tools and spares to hand.  How does this equate to a "tall pole"?

Life support systems that recycle nearly 100% of the water? I don't think so.

I agree that the ECLSS is the technically exciting part of the project. Everything else just requires money and not even that much of it because no propulsion is needed during the whole flight, only RCS.

OK there is the intensity of the sun at Venus orbit. I don't know how this requires more efficient cooling.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 08/24/2013 05:00 am
We have had life support systems that have operated in space for than 500 days for three decades.  You just need to ensure you have the skills, tools and spares to hand.  How does this equate to a "tall pole"?

Good luck flying that to Mars.


What evidence justifies this statement?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 08/24/2013 05:04 am

We have had life support systems that have operated in space for than 500 days for three decades.  You just need to ensure you have the skills, tools and spares to hand.  How does this equate to a "tall pole"?

Life support systems that recycle nearly 100% of the water? I don't think so.

I agree that the ECLSS is the technically exciting part of the project. Everything else just requires money and not even that much of it because no propulsion is needed during the whole flight, only RCS.

OK there is the intensity of the sun at Venus orbit. I don't know how this requires more efficient cooling.


Why do you need to recycle nearly 100% of the water?  Why isn't 90% (current on ISS) or 80% (o0n Mir) adequate?

Since we can handle spacecraft cooling at Mercury distances, temperature regulation for the brief period at the distance of Venus is hardly unknown territory.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 08/24/2013 05:06 am
We have had life support systems that have operated in space for than 500 days for three decades.  You just need to ensure you have the skills, tools and spares to hand.  How does this equate to a "tall pole"?

Hasn't Dennis Tito made it clear that the life support is the key new technology yet to be developed?

This is the part of the scheme that actually excites me, that the core is to develop this life support. It is something we will always have from that day forwards because it is primarily knowledge. I dont think that sort of advance can be thrown away the same way a launch architecture can, setting us back to square one.

New mission specific hardware, yes, but I don't see why new technology needs to be developed.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KelvinZero on 08/24/2013 05:54 am
New mission specific hardware, yes, but I don't see why new technology needs to be developed.
This might be descending into semantics. The fact that we could do it, that maybe it could have been done earlier, does not mean it is easy or already done. Mission Specific? that implies it is between the requirements of existing hardware. This is required to be more compact and more reliable than anything on the ISS. It is a huge step outside the parameters of the ISS in the direction of plausible Mars/Phobos missions.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 08/24/2013 06:00 am
New mission specific hardware, yes, but I don't see why new technology needs to be developed.
This might be descending into semantics. The fact that we could do it, that maybe it could have been done earlier, does not mean it is easy or already done. Mission Specific? that implies it is between the requirements of existing hardware. This is required to be more compact and more reliable than anything on the ISS. It is a huge step outside the parameters of the ISS in the direction of plausible Mars/Phobos missions.


Once again, why does it need to be more reliable?
My does it need to be more compact?
It does need to be smaller, than then it only has to support 2 people.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 08/24/2013 06:03 am

Why do you need to recycle nearly 100% of the water?  Why isn't 90% (current on ISS) or 80% (o0n Mir) adequate?

Because this mission is very mass limited unless NASA donates their Block I SLS or they go for dual start which they would like to avoid for cost and logistics reasons.

Since we can handle spacecraft cooling at Mercury distances, temperature regulation for the brief period at the distance of Venus is hardly unknown territory.

Yes but I was thinking Dragon as the flight vehicle with modifications as small as possible and conditions for humans, not a probe that can be designed for higher temperatures at least in parts of the vehicle. Maybe orientation in space to minimize heating by the sun and maximising efficiency of the radiators will be good enough maybe not.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 08/24/2013 06:08 am

Why do you need to recycle nearly 100% of the water?  Why isn't 90% (current on ISS) or 80% (o0n Mir) adequate?

Because this mission is very mass limited unless NASA donates their Block I SLS or they go for dual start which they would like to avoid for cost and logistics reasons.

Since we can handle spacecraft cooling at Mercury distances, temperature regulation for the brief period at the distance of Venus is hardly unknown territory.

Yes but I was thinking Dragon as the flight vehicle with modifications as small as possible and conditions for humans, not a probe that can be designed for higher temperatures at least in parts of the vehicle. Maybe orientation in space to minimize heating by the sun and maximising efficiency of the radiators will be good enough maybe not.


To my knowledge no decision has been made as to launch system or spacecraft architecture. 

Remember too that system mass and power requirements go up rapidly as recycling efficiency increases.  There is a trade off therefore between system and consumable mass.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: spectre9 on 08/24/2013 07:33 am
I'm cynical about 2033 because of the money.

I'm willing to say there's about a 0.2% chance of this happening in 2018.

In 2033 the chances are much better. Mainly because SpaceX should have better capabilities and Musk might do the mission himself not because I have any faith in NASA sadly  :-[
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 08/24/2013 07:41 am
I'm cynical about 2033 because of the money.

I'm willing to say there's about a 0.2% chance of this happening in 2018.

In 2033 the chances are much better. Mainly because SpaceX should have better capabilities and Musk might do the mission himself not because I have any faith in NASA sadly  :-[

No your reasons are purely cynical.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KelvinZero on 08/24/2013 07:50 am
Once again, why does it need to be more reliable?
Can't we just take it as given that I have given the obvious reason, and then you provide your brilliant counterargument?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 08/24/2013 08:21 am
Once again, why does it need to be more reliable?
Can't we just take it as given that I have given the obvious reason, and then you provide your brilliant counterargument?

Why the sarcasm?  I really do want to know the specific reasons why you think current systems are not sufficiently reliable.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KelvinZero on 08/24/2013 01:55 pm
Once again, why does it need to be more reliable?
Can't we just take it as given that I have given the obvious reason, and then you provide your brilliant counterargument?
Why the sarcasm?  I really do want to know the specific reasons why you think current systems are not sufficiently reliable.
I wasnt intending to be sarcastic, I was intending to imply you were employing the rhetorical trick of pretending not to see what is obvious to other people in order to make them question their assumptions, so we have to expend all the effort figuring out your possible arguments for you, in order that we do not look foolish when you reveal some twist that is obvious in hindsight. Im sure there is a name for that.

Ok then,

The ISS lifesupport is for the ISS, not a 500 day mission without hope of resupply or evacuation. That is it really.

If it had tried to be that thing, it couldnt have experimented with things like recycling, and couldn't have been used to develop better systems. The recycling has had issues as you would expect. Thats because we are pushing the boundary towards a reliable lifesupport system with fair to good recycling. After that is achieved I expect we would take those lessons and start designing the actual hardware for a BLEO mission.

You can't separate reliability and compactness. Of course we could almost certainly achieve sufficient reliablility with sufficient mass and redundancy (and budget). I could only answer with a shrug. To me that would be a pointless travesty but it is not the plan anyway.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 08/24/2013 03:42 pm
Not a lot of technology is needed for a flyby mission. Pretty much just money. The technology development would be to reduce the amount of money needed (i.e. so you could do it in just a couple launches).

Always it's launch vehicles with you people...

The tall pole in this tent is a reliable life support system, one that won't die or severely degrade during this long mission. NASA hasn't built one yet, and they happen to be the experts in it. If anybody is going to throw any money at all at this mission concept, that is the place to throw it.
I hope you aren't joking. There's no technical reason you couldn't do a 500 day mission using more reliable more open-loop systems. But you'd need a bigger spacecraft, a larger spare pool, a bigger TMI stage, more LEO ops, and yes, more launches.

How long has ISS been in orbit? How about Mir or Salyut 7? I wasn't actually aware that they completely replaced their life support systems every 500 days. Also wasn't aware that such life support systems have a timer on them that starts when it leaves Earth, whether they are used or not.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 08/24/2013 06:52 pm
I wasn't actually aware that they completely replaced their life support systems every 500 days.

Who said "completely replaced"?

What's the MTBF on the ISS life support system? (Hint: it is relatively small.) And how often are life support supplies/spares/tools carried up to the ISS?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Comga on 08/24/2013 08:44 pm
So can and will Inspiration Mars run a long term simulation on the ground?
I can imagine an inverted system, with a small volume like a Dragon or CST-100 capsule mockup with mid- to long-term volunteers on the inside and the ECLSS hardware on the outside tended to during work hours by astronaut/passenger candidates/trainees.  If they get started by the summer of 2015 they can run a 500 day simulation and still have a year before launch to incorporate lessons learned into the flight hardware.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 08/25/2013 12:10 am
I wasn't actually aware that they completely replaced their life support systems every 500 days.

Who said "completely replaced"?

What's the MTBF on the ISS life support system? (Hint: it is relatively small.) And how often are life support supplies/spares/tools carried up to the ISS?

Surely this simply means that you need to carry sufficient tools and spares for the time period, which is true for any system, not matter how reliable.

I again ask, why this is an obstacle?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 08/25/2013 12:41 am
Surely this simply means that you need to carry sufficient tools and spares for the time period, which is true for any system, not matter how reliable.

I again ask, why this is an obstacle?

Robobeat has already answered you.. the rest of us are wondering how you could not understand this and be posting.

The better you can make the life support systems (and, heck all the systems), the less mass you have to put through TMI, which is the key metric for determining if your mission is workable with current launch capability.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: spectre9 on 08/25/2013 02:02 am
Yes QG and that is covered in the paper.

BEO throw mass is the limiter.

Either throw more mass or lower the mass you need to throw.

This mission would be easy with SLS but SLS isn't going to be there for the next window.

The window after (2033) the chances are much higher for a vehicle with 20mt+ to a Mars Transfer Orbit to be around. If not SLS than some sort of next generation SpaceX BFR.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KelvinZero on 08/25/2013 02:46 am
A bit off topic but it would be interesting to read an essay from an engineer and perhaps ISS crew member who actually deals with day to day issues of ISS lifesupport. I guess that does not really fit the format of this site which is primarily news. There are a bunch of roles like that where I can't picture what they actually do. I just get images of Lt. Geordie pulling out circuit boards and plugging them in backwards, and Han solo telling Chewbacca to pass the hydrospanner :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KelvinZero on 08/25/2013 02:48 am
Who's going to suggest 3d printers?  ;D
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 08/25/2013 04:05 am
Surely this simply means that you need to carry sufficient tools and spares for the time period, which is true for any system, not matter how reliable.

I again ask, why this is an obstacle?

Robobeat has already answered you.. the rest of us are wondering how you could not understand this and be posting.

The better you can make the life support systems (and, heck all the systems), the less mass you have to put through TMI, which is the key metric for determining if your mission is workable with current launch capability.


Obviously "The better you can make the life support systems (and, heck all the systems), the less mass you have to put through TMI..."

That does not preclude the the use of existing systems.  It just means they will be more massive and less efficient that what might be available in in 10, 20 or fifty years time. 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 08/25/2013 04:07 am
Yes QG and that is covered in the paper.

BEO throw mass is the limiter.

Either throw more mass or lower the mass you need to throw.

This mission would be easy with SLS but SLS isn't going to be there for the next window.

The window after (2033) the chances are much higher for a vehicle with 20mt+ to a Mars Transfer Orbit to be around. If not SLS than some sort of next generation SpaceX BFR.

There are a number of options under consideration which are not as mass limited as that in the original paper.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 08/25/2013 04:09 am
Once again, why does it need to be more reliable?
Can't we just take it as given that I have given the obvious reason, and then you provide your brilliant counterargument?
Why the sarcasm?  I really do want to know the specific reasons why you think current systems are not sufficiently reliable.
I wasnt intending to be sarcastic, I was intending to imply you were employing the rhetorical trick of pretending not to see what is obvious to other people in order to make them question their assumptions, so we have to expend all the effort figuring out your possible arguments for you, in order that we do not look foolish when you reveal some twist that is obvious in hindsight. Im sure there is a name for that.

Ok then,

The ISS lifesupport is for the ISS, not a 500 day mission without hope of resupply or evacuation. That is it really.

If it had tried to be that thing, it couldnt have experimented with things like recycling, and couldn't have been used to develop better systems. The recycling has had issues as you would expect. Thats because we are pushing the boundary towards a reliable lifesupport system with fair to good recycling. After that is achieved I expect we would take those lessons and start designing the actual hardware for a BLEO mission.

You can't separate reliability and compactness. Of course we could almost certainly achieve sufficient reliablility with sufficient mass and redundancy (and budget). I could only answer with a shrug. To me that would be a pointless travesty but it is not the plan anyway.

Why would it be a travesty?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 08/25/2013 04:42 pm
Obviously "The better you can make the life support systems (and, heck all the systems), the less mass you have to put through TMI..."

That does not preclude the the use of existing systems.  It just means they will be more massive and less efficient that what might be available in in 10, 20 or fifty years time. 

It does preclude them because the mass requirements means it simply is not possible to fly the mission as envisaged and, more importantly, fly the mission at all without an expensive large TMI stage development.  For Inspiration Mars, compactness, low mass and high reliability are key ECLSS requirements.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ClaytonBirchenough on 08/25/2013 06:12 pm

There are a number of options under consideration which are not as mass limited as that in the original paper.


Like what?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Vultur on 08/25/2013 07:56 pm
I doubt they need anything like 100% efficient water recycling. Especially since they're going to be bringing food (rather than growing it) and the human body produces a fairly significant amount of water when metabolizing food.


I think one article suggested they would get simpler, more reliable water recycling (than ISS) by accepting lower water quality standards.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 08/25/2013 08:26 pm
I doubt they need anything like 100% efficient water recycling. Especially since they're going to be bringing food (rather than growing it) and the human body produces a fairly significant amount of water when metabolizing food.

Yes, but that needs Oxygen. Oxygen is most likely produced from water so needs to be recovered for reuse.

They really need close to 100% water recycling. If I remember correctly they want not only urine recycled but want to recover the water from solid excretions too.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: RocketmanUS on 08/25/2013 09:38 pm
I doubt they need anything like 100% efficient water recycling. Especially since they're going to be bringing food (rather than growing it) and the human body produces a fairly significant amount of water when metabolizing food.

Yes, but that needs Oxygen. Oxygen is most likely produced from water so needs to be recovered for reuse.

They really need close to 100% water recycling. If I remember correctly they want not only urine recycled but want to recover the water from solid excretions too.

In the beginning of this thread it was discussed about 80% recycling of the water. The other 20% does not to be filtered to a point of being drinkable, just the H2O needs to be broken down to H2 O2, O2 for breathing. The O2 from CO2 will need to be recovered in some process for breathable O2.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 08/26/2013 06:10 am
In the beginning of this thread it was discussed about 80% recycling of the water. The other 20% does not to be filtered to a point of being drinkable, just the H2O needs to be broken down to H2 O2, O2 for breathing. The O2 from CO2 will need to be recovered in some process for breathable O2.

Recovering O2 from CO2 seems to be a difficult nut to crack. We have no way for CO2 -> C + O2

What can be done and as far as I understand is done on the ISS is the Sabatier reaction

CO2 + 4H2 -> CH4 + 2 H2O

where the waste H2 from Oxygen production from H2O is used. That's quite good and helpful but not a closed loop as the CH4 is a waste product. But for the Inspiration Mars project this is good enough because the Hydrogen and Carbon come from the Carbohydrates in the food. But still, as the O2 comes from water there is no net production of water. The highest possible water recovery is needed to minimize mission mass.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 08/26/2013 04:43 pm
So can and will Inspiration Mars run a long term simulation on the ground?
I can imagine an inverted system, with a small volume like a Dragon or CST-100 capsule mockup with mid- to long-term volunteers on the inside and the ECLSS hardware on the outside tended to during work hours by astronaut/passenger candidates/trainees.  If they get started by the summer of 2015 they can run a 500 day simulation and still have a year before launch to incorporate lessons learned into the flight hardware.

(Underlining added.)

A year is useless. If you have any idea about the timelines required for development of space hardware the whole thing looks impossible. It takes a long time to design anything, certainly a long time to design anything that you want to be reliable because human lives depend on it.

The simplest spacecraft that NASA builds--robotic ones that is--can go from idea to launch in a little under four years. However, the agency has determined that this provides insufficient test time, and usually five years is considered prudent. That's for simple stuff. I believe that I have heard that the lead time for a commercial comsat that is identical to ones already produced is a little over a year. That means that if I walked into Boeing right now with $300 million in suitcases and ordered a satellite out of a catalog, they could deliver it in a little over a year, and that's with an existing production line and parts suppliers. So those are bare minimum times. (You can probably go shorter if it is a really simple satellite, like a cubesat, which one expert I know derisively refers to as "debris.")

That's really the killer in all of this. I don't think that this idea is impossible. I think that even at its best it would be rather risky. But the timeline is the killer. There is just no way to design and build something that you can have any confidence in.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 08/26/2013 04:46 pm
Who's going to suggest 3d printers?  ;D

Or VASIMR? Or fuel depots?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: baldusi on 08/26/2013 05:17 pm
Blackstar, a lot of the time is validation and certification. An Earth based 500 day mission simulation might well work as a validation/certification test?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 08/26/2013 06:17 pm
Blackstar, a lot of the time is validation and certification. An Earth based 500 day mission simulation might well work as a validation/certification test?

It might work well for that purpose. But I don't think it would be done in time. How long does it take to build the hardware BEFORE you can test it? For example, with this theoretical example, can you build a Dragon or CST-100 with all the required systems in less than two years? And can you build all the test equipment for monitoring it? Does it need to run in a vacuum chamber? Is there one available at that time for that long that is where you need it? And is there enough time between the end of the test and the launch date to make any required modifications? How would we know that ahead of time? (That's why normally you build in margin.)

I'd also note that the utility of this for validation and certification  somewhat depends--there may be ways to validate without doing the full duration test. Can you build two of them and operate both for half as long and get good data? Do you need four or five of them for that purpose? Does a 500 day test tell you enough about your margin? Or do you really want to test until failure? Maybe there's a way to have nine women get pregnant and produce a single baby in one month. Dunno.

I was running a meeting last week and had a couple of former astronauts there and we briefly started talking about life support systems. The life support system on ISS requires significant repairs on a relatively regular basis. And parts storage is a big deal.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 08/26/2013 06:21 pm
Yeah, I sincerely doubt they'll finish this in time for the early window, even with lots of funding.

...
I was running a meeting last week and had a couple of former astronauts there and we briefly started talking about life support systems. The life support system on ISS requires significant repairs on a relatively regular basis. And parts storage is a big deal.
The astronauts' primary job would be maintaining the life support systems, according to the presentation.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 08/26/2013 07:48 pm
...
I was running a meeting last week and had a couple of former astronauts there and we briefly started talking about life support systems. The life support system on ISS requires significant repairs on a relatively regular basis. And parts storage is a big deal.

The astronauts' primary job would be maintaining the life support systems, according to the presentation.

Spare parts storage space (or the lack of it) is going to be the killer on this one.  KISS is a must and that means probably not the masterpieces of plumbing that are currently used.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 08/26/2013 10:48 pm
I don't understand the debate.. there's obviously no proof that they can do it - that's why they're doing it!
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Vultur on 08/28/2013 05:45 am
They should sell advertising rights. Put a company logo on the side of the spacecraft, commercials in the news updates, that sort of thing.

This isn't Mars One - it's far less complex. The amount of money gained from things like this could be really significant.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 08/28/2013 12:13 pm
They should sell advertising rights. Put a company logo on the side of the spacecraft, commercials in the news updates, that sort of thing.

This isn't Mars One - it's far less complex. The amount of money gained from things like this could be really significant.

Everybody talks about advertising rights for these things, but the amount of money that they ultimately generate is minimal compared to the costs.

It was done for Mir, MirCorp proposed it, others have proposed it as well. But it just doesn't bring in a lot of ad revenue. And you have to keep in mind that ad companies may not care, or they may be wary of tying their name to something that could fail badly: "The disastrous Coca Cola Mars mission..."
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robert Thompson on 08/28/2013 08:12 pm
It'd be great to see a BioSphere2 done correctly as a Biosphere3 / Mars 500 with complete reprocessing. A stunt in itself. Apply the technology to broader terrestrial problems. No high risk factors. Less, but more stable ad revenue.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Hauerg on 08/28/2013 08:31 pm
They should sell advertising rights. Put a company logo on the side of the spacecraft, commercials in the news updates, that sort of thing.

This isn't Mars One - it's far less complex. The amount of money gained from things like this could be really significant.

Everybody talks about advertising rights for these things, but the amount of money that they ultimately generate is minimal compared to the costs.

It was done for Mir, MirCorp proposed it, others have proposed it as well. But it just doesn't bring in a lot of ad revenue. And you have to keep in mind that ad companies may not care, or they may be wary of tying their name to something that could fail badly: "The disastrous Coca Cola Mars mission..."
Then they should talk to Red Bull. They have a culture that can handle a death or two.
This may sound negative, but it is not.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 08/29/2013 01:01 am
(You can probably go shorter [than a year] if it is a really simple satellite, like a cubesat, which one expert I know derisively refers to as "debris.")

Not sure of the meaning of the term "debris".

For example, the Arkyd 100 will be able to detect NEO's of absolute magnitude 19, and accurately characterize their orbital data, a very useful capability.

Just sayin'.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Vultur on 08/29/2013 02:04 am
I certainly wouldn't agree that cubesats are 'debris', but ....

The Arkyd 100 isn't a cubesat, it's 15 kg (at least the one that the Kickstarter was about was).

They WILL fly a 3U cubesat to test out systems for the Arkyd 100, but it won't have the actual telescope capabilities.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Vultur on 08/29/2013 02:05 am
They should sell advertising rights. Put a company logo on the side of the spacecraft, commercials in the news updates, that sort of thing.

This isn't Mars One - it's far less complex. The amount of money gained from things like this could be really significant.

Everybody talks about advertising rights for these things, but the amount of money that they ultimately generate is minimal compared to the costs.

It was done for Mir, MirCorp proposed it, others have proposed it as well. But it just doesn't bring in a lot of ad revenue. And you have to keep in mind that ad companies may not care, or they may be wary of tying their name to something that could fail badly: "The disastrous Coca Cola Mars mission..."

Sure, but surely some companies would be interested.

How much could they realistically get?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ClaytonBirchenough on 08/29/2013 02:32 am
Sure, but surely some companies would be interested.

How much could they realistically get?

Just had to say my idea for an advertisement opportunity in such a Mars mission. Imagine if bottom of the boot that the astronaut who stepped on Mars first had a logo design on his boot so when he took his first step on Mars, the logo would be imprinted in the regolith. The picture of the first step on Mars would be seen everywhere! IMAGINE the price alone for such an "ad"...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Comga on 08/29/2013 05:54 am
So can and will Inspiration Mars run a long term simulation on the ground?
I can imagine an inverted system, with a small volume like a Dragon or CST-100 capsule mockup with mid- to long-term volunteers on the inside and the ECLSS hardware on the outside tended to during work hours by astronaut/passenger candidates/trainees.  If they get started by the summer of 2015 they can run a 500 day simulation and still have a year before launch to incorporate lessons learned into the flight hardware.

(Underlining added.)

A year is useless. If you have any idea about the timelines required for development of space hardware the whole thing looks impossible. It takes a long time to design anything, certainly a long time to design anything that you want to be reliable because human lives depend on it.

(snip)

Thanks for the brush off. 
Your points have merit, but don't fit the situation as well as you might think.
I have built spaceflight hardware, including for manned spaceflight, and am doing so now.  Some things go from mostly paper to launch in under two years.  Other stuff can take over a decade.  We know that. (I once saw stuff designed and built and launched in eight days.  Really.)

I wasn't proposing that they build the life support system in a year.  Only that they would have a year beyond a 500 day test run to incorporate lessons learned, like which additional spares and tools to add to some limited contingency mass held for that purpose

Dennis Tito is not a fool.  He has done homework that convinces him that a flyby mission to Mars launching in 2018 is doable.  This must include the life support system. He must have confidence that a system can be built with existing hardware. The concept was a way to test the systems without running a "Biosphere 3" with the couple who are going to be cooped up for 500 days during the mission. 

The "right" way to do this is to build a closed environment and attach it to the ISS, then run it for lengthening intervals.  However, it has been 15 years since the first ISS element was launched, and they are just getting to year long stays in a partially "open" system next year.  At this pace the development of a 500 day system will take decades. 

Tito thinks there is a faster, less incremental way, with more risk and less scope.  I was just wondering about a part of that plan.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 08/29/2013 12:46 pm
I certainly wouldn't agree that cubesats are 'debris', but ....

The Arkyd 100 isn't a cubesat, it's 15 kg (at least the one that the Kickstarter was about was).

They WILL fly a 3U cubesat to test out systems for the Arkyd 100, but it won't have the actual telescope capabilities.


Oooo.  Thanks for the correction:  I totally misread their website.

http://www.planetaryresources.com/2012/08/a-spacecraft-within-a-spacecraft/arkyd-cubesat/

Besides, 15x10^3 grams is a lot of not debris.

It's a cubesat.  You're arguing a distinction without a difference.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 08/29/2013 01:19 pm
...  If they get started by the summer of 2015 they can run a 500 day simulation and still have a year before launch to incorporate lessons learned into the flight hardware.

(Underlining added.)

A year is useless. ...

Thanks for the brush off. 

Your points have merit, but don't fit the situation as well as you might think.
I have built spaceflight hardware, including for manned spaceflight, and am doing so now.  Some things go from mostly paper to launch in under two years.  Other stuff can take over a decade.  We know that. (I once saw stuff designed and built and launched in eight days.  Really.)

I wasn't proposing that they build the life support system in a year.  Only that they would have a year beyond a 500 day test run to incorporate lessons learned, like which additional spares and tools to add to some limited contingency mass held for that purpose

Dennis Tito is not a fool.  He has done homework that convinces him that a flyby mission to Mars launching in 2018 is doable.  This must include the life support system. He must have confidence that a system can be built with existing hardware. The concept was a way to test the systems without running a "Biosphere 3" with the couple who are going to be cooped up for 500 days during the mission. 

The "right" way to do this is to build a closed environment and attach it to the ISS, then run it for lengthening intervals.  ... 

Tito thinks there is a faster, less incremental way, with more risk and less scope.  I was just wondering about a part of that plan.

Clearly, a lot of work can be done by a team in a year, particularly if they ban youtoob from the workplace, and focus on the work at hand.  I totally agree that the "lessons learned" would be substantial.  Any of these manned martian mission claims will have to run a "Bio-cylinder" type experiment.

In addition, while I'm sure your anecdote about the eight day mission is accurate, it cannot have had that much functionality, particularly as compared to the life support systems required for a Mars flyby.  If you go on to argue that I'd be "surprised" about how much functionality you all were able to design and build and launch in eight days, it would prove nothing pertaining to Tito's work, his methodology, nor his public annoucements to date.

Of course Tito is not a fool; that should go without saying, and nobody is arguing his foolishness.  He is concerned, as we all are, with his income stream, and whether his income will permit him to attempt this experimental mission.  Again, it would not be an issue of him trying to "surprise" me with the amount of homework he's done, or how many PhD's he's hired.  The only surprise that would count would be a successful mission.

Still, as you say, the "right" way for him to implement the "Bio-Cylinder" part of his experiment is to attach his cylinder to the ISS and test it incrementally.  Unfortunately, that is not likely, since the station is partially owned by the USG, and Tito has not yet announced an arrangement with Russia permitting a privately owned attachment to their piece of the station.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Zond on 09/08/2013 10:51 am
Here is the presentation of Dennis Tito and Taber McCallum at 16th mars society covention (2013-08-16): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FL3KlMyeyI0 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FL3KlMyeyI0)
They are currently doing a 60 day study to clearly define the architecture and can thus not release not much information. They hope to release more info after the conclusion of the architecture study (somewhere in the November to December timeframe). He did say the architecture is quite a bit different than what they first proposed, but he thinks it is much more doable.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 09/08/2013 12:31 pm
I'm looking forward very much to the revised Architecture information - because I've been actively involved in past speculation threads about this very subject  :)  I want Mr Tito and company very much to succeed in this venture.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 09/09/2013 03:54 pm
It scares me to hear them say they will require NASA's help in other than technical aspects (read: money).
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KSC Sage on 09/21/2013 02:24 am
I'm looking forward very much to the revised Architecture information - because I've been actively involved in past speculation threads about this very subject  :)  I want Mr Tito and company very much to succeed in this venture.

It would be interesting if they used the SLS first test flight.  The launch vehicle would already be paid for.  NASA would get their test flight and IM would get a cheap ride with plenty of lift capability.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 09/21/2013 02:18 pm
I'm looking forward very much to the revised Architecture information - because I've been actively involved in past speculation threads about this very subject  :)  I want Mr Tito and company very much to succeed in this venture.

It would be interesting if they used the SLS first test flight.  The launch vehicle would already be paid for.  NASA would get their test flight and IM would get a cheap ride with plenty of lift capability.

I agree.  That would certainly be within the realm of physical possibility, but totally outside of the realm of legality.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 09/24/2013 09:43 pm
There is a brand-new interview of Taber MacCallum at the Red Planet Radio podcast, where he gives an update on Inspiration Mars with some additional details...
http://redplanetradio.podbean.com/feed/

Annoyingly, all attempts to play the podcast result in a 404.  And oddly, the podcasts for previous months result in 404s as well.

EDIT: Tried it on a different network and it works now. :)

EDIT2: The Inspiration Mars portion starts at 15:00.

EDIT3: Well, that was slightly disappointing.  There was no information newer than what was mentioned during the August presentation.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 09/24/2013 10:14 pm
I'm looking forward very much to the revised Architecture information - because I've been actively involved in past speculation threads about this very subject  :)  I want Mr Tito and company very much to succeed in this venture.

It would be interesting if they used the SLS first test flight.  The launch vehicle would already be paid for.  NASA would get their test flight and IM would get a cheap ride with plenty of lift capability.

Inspiration Mars has enough risk.  They don't need to add to it by putting people on the very first flight of a new launch vehicle.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 09/25/2013 09:15 am

I was running a meeting last week and had a couple of former astronauts there and we briefly started talking about life support systems. The life support system on ISS requires significant repairs on a relatively regular basis. And parts storage is a big deal.

Be that as it may, it does not appear to invalidate the concept.  We know that two people can run much larger spacecraft for longer periods of time and, as far as I can work out the it takes less than 250kg a month of non-propellant supplies to keep a person on the ISS, that's under 8.5 tonnes for two people over 17 months.  Inspiration Mars would need less than this, as it would be a small spacecraft supporting two people, not a 400 tonnes six person laboratory. 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KSC Sage on 09/26/2013 05:23 pm
I'm looking forward very much to the revised Architecture information - because I've been actively involved in past speculation threads about this very subject  :)  I want Mr Tito and company very much to succeed in this venture.

It would be interesting if they used the SLS first test flight.  The launch vehicle would already be paid for.  NASA would get their test flight and IM would get a cheap ride with plenty of lift capability.

Inspiration Mars has enough risk.  They don't need to add to it by putting people on the very first flight of a new launch vehicle.

A guess like Shuttle did.  :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 09/26/2013 07:17 pm
Inspiration Mars has enough risk.  They don't need to add to it by putting people on the very first flight of a new launch vehicle.

A guess like Shuttle did.  :)

Right.  The shuttle program's safety record isn't one to use as a model.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 09/26/2013 07:26 pm
And the first couple flights were very risky. Just look at Wayne Hale's blog if you don't believe it.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: GalacticIntruder on 09/26/2013 07:48 pm
I don't think Tito will be able to us an SLS, even if it was free. Its performance is badly needed, but  there is zero room for a schedule slip on its proposed maiden launch. It is highly unlikely it can launch in the Mars window. IMF's design and mass budget needs to be frozen next year. It is ambitious and nearly impossible enough with the CM, timeline and budget that they do no need LV uncertainty.  If the FH launches in 2014, that is what they will build around.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KSC Sage on 09/29/2013 01:59 am
I don't think Tito will be able to us an SLS, even if it was free. Its performance is badly needed, but  there is zero room for a schedule slip on its proposed maiden launch. It is highly unlikely it can launch in the Mars window. IMF's design and mass budget needs to be frozen next year. It is ambitious and nearly impossible enough with the CM, timeline and budget that they do no need LV uncertainty.  If the FH launches in 2014, that is what they will build around.

What I've been told SpaceX has no interest in helping IM beat them to Mars.  SpaceX is not supporting IM at this time.  I don't think we'll see the FH being used for the IM mission.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 09/29/2013 02:32 am
Told by whom?

Also, I don't see how Inspiration Mars could be thought of as "beating" SpaceX to Mars, considering that it's virtually certain they will be using SpaceX hardware to do it.  (Even if they don't use the Falcon Heavy, I don't see any way they don't use the Dragon.)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 09/29/2013 02:38 am
What I've been told SpaceX has no interest in helping IM beat them to Mars.  SpaceX is not supporting IM at this time.  I don't think we'll see the FH being used for the IM mission.

If that's really the case, I think Inspiration Mars's chances of doing a mission in 2018 go from low to zero.  I can't see them pulling it off without SpaceX hardware.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 09/29/2013 05:40 am
What I've been told SpaceX has no interest in helping IM beat them to Mars.  SpaceX is not supporting IM at this time.  I don't think we'll see the FH being used for the IM mission.

That first sentence seems absolutely wrong to me. How would IM beat SpaceX to Mars? I understand SpaceX wants to be the transport company to Mars, not the mission initiator.

They may not want to financially support IM. They want to be paid for their services.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 09/29/2013 05:42 am
Yeah, I'm fairly certain SpaceX would be more than happy to sell a Falcon Heavy to someone going to Mars.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: simonbp on 09/29/2013 05:55 am
Oh sure, they'll sell you one, but good luck hitting the launch window with the SpaceX time dilation factor... ;)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 09/29/2013 06:07 am
Not based on anything SpaceX said, but I don't think they are thrilled with IM.  (They == Elon)

1.  SpaceX says they want to be a "Mars Transport Company", but I am 100% sure that what Elon wants is to set up a Mars Colony - not just facilitate transport to one.   For this reason, they are thinking in terms of sustained efforts, not flag-and-boots missions. (which is what IM is, even though there are no boots.)

2. IM's tagline has been that "We need to do this so that there's interest in Mars, so maybe the government (or anyone) will be motivated enough to go to Mars".  From SpaceX's point of view, there's already motivation, and there's already someone doing it - so why the need for IM?

3. The potential and consequences of failure in an IM type mission are higher than using SpaceX's approach, and they will affect SpaceX's plans even if it wasn't their idea.

So IMO SpaceX is simply taking a no-action course of action, and hoping IM will take long enough that SpaceX's action will render it obsolete. (It is not impossible that SpaceX will be accumulating Oxygen on the surface by 2018, and it's likely they'll be doing a lot more than that by 2031.

Otherwise, I'd have expected there to be much more joint talk from the two companies.  The fact that there isn't is somewhat of an indicator.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 09/29/2013 06:11 am
Inspiration Mars is essentially doing what Elon Musk wanted to do when he started SpaceX. Remember the greenhouse on Mars idea? He may have wizened up on the ability of the public to be roused to action, but I'm fairly confident SpaceX wouldn't deny them launch services because of it.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 09/29/2013 07:08 am
Inspiration Mars is essentially doing what Elon Musk wanted to do when he started SpaceX. Remember the greenhouse on Mars idea? He may have wizened up on the ability of the public to be roused to action, but I'm fairly confident SpaceX wouldn't deny them launch services because of it.

(we're skirting OT here - let's keep it IM related, or move it to SpaceX threads)

So I'll only comment on the Martian Tomato wrt to IM and IM-SpaceX relations.

The Martian Tomato has an element of "inspiration" in it, except with an unmanned payload.  So a smaller, gentler, stunt.

I think things have evolved since.

Elon no longer thinks his role in the universe is to provide inspiration using a single self-contained mission.  He is going for a colony, and in SpaceX's Martian musings, you don't hear anymore about tomatoes, sample return, fly-around, etc.  Only colonies.  (and let's take the rest of this to the SpaceX threads.)

So in his view, I don't think IM meshes well with his plans, and has the potential to be counterproductive.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 09/29/2013 08:23 am
Otherwise, I'd have expected there to be much more joint talk from the two companies.  The fact that there isn't is somewhat of an indicator.

Please state your source for this "fact".

Dennis Tito and Taber MacCallum have said multiple times that they were in talks with multiple companies, and they'd love to share the details, but they couldn't due to NDAs.  The fact that talks haven't been publicized doesn't mean there haven't been any.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 09/29/2013 08:59 am
Otherwise, I'd have expected there to be much more joint talk from the two companies.  The fact that there isn't is somewhat of an indicator.

Please state your source for this "fact".

Dennis Tito and Taber MacCallum have said multiple times that they were in talks with multiple companies, and they'd love to share the details, but they couldn't due to NDAs.  The fact that talks haven't been publicized doesn't mean there haven't been any.

I'm saying that if the two were aligned, I'd have expected more cooperation. 

Here's a Mars-centric potential customer, and even on the more credible end of the spectrum - what can be better?

You'd think SpaceX would practically pursue them, make sure they don't end up with anyone else, etc. It should be love at first sight, the first fulfillment of the "build it and they will come" tagline.

But instead, all I see is "yeah, we'll talk with them" which is the absolute minimum reaction possible, since clearly SpaceX won't publicly reject them.

By itself, it's kermlinology... but I was only noting it as a last supporting factor, after thinking whether IM's plans are inline with SpaceX's.

All opinion, all interpretation here.  Read the word "fact" in the context it was used.  More of an observation.

... and I'm only trying to read SpaceX's mindset.   Personally, leaving SpaceX out of it, I'm for this idea.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 09/29/2013 09:03 am
If and when there's  something to announce they'll let you know. You can't just imagine you know what's going on.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 09/29/2013 05:09 pm
When we know everything, then we'll know everything...

Meanwhile, gave my opinion on whether IM's and SpaceX's plans are aligned, and commented on the visible level of cooperation.  All legit.

I'll give you a counter example.

SpaceX wants to fly people to ISS.  I don't know all the details of any talks between SpaceX and NASA.
But a) it aligns with SpaceX's plans, b) they can't stop talking about it.  Including visiting astronauts checking out alpha-prototypes of Dragon.

Another example:  Red Dragon.   It's a mythical half-rumor.  But SpaceX talks about "Dragon can land on Mars". 

I don't see that with IM, and I think it makes sense.

BTW - that doesn't mean SpaceX won't fly IM. 

Just my observation this very fine morning.



Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 09/30/2013 05:54 am
Remember how Dennis Tito made all those millions -- he's a money guy.  Even if he and Elon do want to work together, they might be playing hardball with each other over exactly how much money changes hands.

It's a little different negotiating with a banker versus NASA.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: R7 on 09/30/2013 09:45 am
Oh sure, they'll sell you one, but good luck hitting the launch window with the SpaceX time dilation factor... ;)

The time dilatation factor also makes the launch opportunity repeat often.  :P ;)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: sanman on 10/02/2013 11:35 pm
I think Tito's plan is doomed to miss the launch window, since it won't be able to get a rocket.

I doubt SpaceX will provide the rocket for a manned mission that carries a high risk of failure, with all the attendant negative publicity from that.

If anyone will give Tito's people a rocket to fly on, it might be the Russians.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 10/02/2013 11:39 pm
I disagree. I think SpaceX will provide a launch to anyone willing to pay for it.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 10/03/2013 12:01 am
I disagree. I think SpaceX will provide a launch to anyone willing to pay for it.

Yeah, I agree with that.  If Inspiration Mars doesn't get a Falcon Heavy and Dragon from SpaceX, it'll be because they aren't willing to pay what SpaceX asks or they need modifications and/or additional hardware that are more than what SpaceX is willing to do.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 10/03/2013 03:03 am
Educated guess time...

I think it's virtually certain that Inspiration Mars is going to use a Dragon for the crew capsule.  They want to use an American spacecraft, Dream Chaser is not suitable for BEO, and neither it nor CST-100 is as far along in development as Dragon.  Therefore Dragon on a Falcon of some sort.

SpaceX wants LC 39A for HSF; they've said as much.  If they get it (and they probably will), they'll have to make a number of modifications to the pad, and based on their "toss everything in at once" mentality, I think they'll go ahead and make sure it can launch Heavies as well as F9s.

The F9 and the Heavy are the same except for the side boosters.  SpaceX will ensure that if LC 39A can launch a manned F9, it will be able to launch a manned Heavy as well.

Since Elon is a smart guy, he's already figured all this out and said as much to Inspiration Mars.  Given that they can launch a manned Dragon from 39A with or without the Heavy, there is a reasonable chance they'll use the Heavy since they'll have additional IMLEO for not much additional cost.  (As an aside, this means the first manned mission to Mars will launch from the same pad as the first manned mission to the Moon.  I think that's rather cool. :))

So now we have a manned Dragon in orbit with some extra mass.  It remains to be seen whether this will be a Hab module or an Earth Departure Stage.  The mission is going to need Dragon, a Hab, and an EDS, and they'll need at least two launches for that, even with the Heavy.  They're going to want the best possible stage for TMI, and although Elon would probably be up for using the Heavy again, the Centaur seems like it would be better suited for TMI.  That means an Atlas V launch.  (It also avoids the need to launch the Heavy twice from the same pad in a short amount of time.)

And that leads us to the mission architecture.  Launch the Dragon and Hab on a Falcon Heavy, do transposition and docking, and do any checkout and systems verification they need to do.  Then launch the Centaur on an Atlas V, dock that to the Dragon/Hab stack, and fire it up for TMI.

(If they dock the EDS to the Hab rather than the trunk, this will leave the trunk exposed to space.  This presents a fine location from which to deploy some sort of small probe as they near Mars, as some people have asked them to do.)

The main risk I see with this approach is that it requires two docking events instead of one, and the second docking needs to be done blind.  But the alternatives seem less optimal.  You could store an inflatable module in the trunk and put it on the nose with a TROGDOR arm, removing one docking event; but then you'd have to develop the arm, you'd have to drag it around uselessly for the rest of the mission, and you'd still have the second blind docking anyway.  Or you could launch the Dragon + EDS on the Falcon Heavy and dock with a Hab launched on another rocket, but the Falcon won't be carrying a Centaur, so you'd end up with a lot less throw mass.

Tossing this out there to see what y'all have to say about it.  This will have to tide me over while I wait impatiently for them to release the results of their 60-day architecture study. :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 10/03/2013 04:54 am
Educated guess time...

[snip]

Tossing this out there to see what y'all have to say about it.  This will have to tide me over while I wait impatiently for them to release the results of their 60-day architecture study. :)

It sounds like a pretty good guess to me.  Of course we don't know, and what they chose could be very different, but it's the best architecture I've heard proposed for the Inspiration Mars mission.

Elon has repeatedly mentioned that Falcon Heavy will be human-rated, so it's almost certain if they get 39A that they'll set it up for Falcon Heavy.  I always kind of figured launching Dragon was the primary motivation for developing Falcon Heavy anyway.  If you look at how much payload needs to be sacrificed to make both the first and second stages of Falcon 9 reusable, it probably can't carry a full Dragon when it's reusable.  But when Falcon 9 is reusable, so is Falcon Heavy, and Falcon Heavy can carry a full Dragon even when reusable.  So, 39A will be built to accommodate Falcon Heavy, because Musk sees Falcon Heavy as the future standard launcher for Dragon.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 10/03/2013 08:07 am
I see a few problems with that.

The docking of the Dragon/Hab stack to the EDS. It needs a docking adapter that has to be developed. I would prefer only one docking event, between the Dragon and Hab. That would be a mating adapter as used to dock Dragon to the ISS, so is available.

Also the docking of the stack to the EDS will have to be positioned with the Dragon facing forward so the Astronauts can take the burn in their seats, it will need to be a strong burn to take advantage of the Oberth effect when leaving LEO. Also the Hab would be already inflated and docked has to take the acceleration in that position with the load of the Hab weight on the Dragon.

IM have also stated that they would much prefer a one launch configuration for ease of operation. That would be one Falcon Heavy launch.

I agree though that the mass budget would be extremely tight, probably too tight, so favor a two launch approach also.

My mission profile. Launch the hab with one launch, Atlas V or Falcon Heavy, if two pads are available. Launch the Dragon with Falcon Heavy. Both launches go directly into the Mars trajectory. Mate Dragon and Hab when already on the way to Mars.

The advantage is no hardware for in space docking needs to be developed. Everything is available off the shelf. Except the ECLSS of course and the deep space communication and navigation.

The disadvantage is Dragon and Hab need to meet in deep space. Dragon has some delta v available to do rendezvous. It is an added risk though. I don't know if it is possible to launch the hab first and the Dragon only when the hab is in its target trajectory. That would minimize the risk.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 10/03/2013 08:44 am
I see a few problems with that.

The docking of the Dragon/Hab stack to the EDS. It needs a docking adapter that has to be developed. I would prefer only one docking event, between the Dragon and Hab. That would be a mating adapter as used to dock Dragon to the ISS, so is available.

Also the docking of the stack to the EDS will have to be positioned with the Dragon facing forward so the Astronauts can take the burn in their seats, it will need to be a strong burn to take advantage of the Oberth effect when leaving LEO. Also the Hab would be already inflated and docked has to take the acceleration in that position with the load of the Hab weight on the Dragon.

IM have also stated that they would much prefer a one launch configuration for ease of operation. That would be one Falcon Heavy launch.

I agree though that the mass budget would be extremely tight, probably too tight, so favor a two launch approach also.

My mission profile. Launch the hab with one launch, Atlas V or Falcon Heavy, if two pads are available. Launch the Dragon with Falcon Heavy. Both launches go directly into the Mars trajectory. Mate Dragon and Hab when already on the way to Mars.

The advantage is no hardware for in space docking needs to be developed. Everything is available off the shelf. Except the ECLSS of course and the deep space communication and navigation.

The disadvantage is Dragon and Hab need to meet in deep space. Dragon has some delta v available to do rendezvous. It is an added risk though. I don't know if it is possible to launch the hab first and the Dragon only when the hab is in its target trajectory. That would minimize the risk.

You're not mentioning the biggest disadvantage compared to the other architecture just mentioned: a Falcon Heavy upper stage is not very good for Earth departure.  Centaur is great for Earth departure.  Launching Centaur on Falcon Heavy would be a large amount of work, but it's all ready to go on Atlas V.

Using Atlas V and Centaur gives you more mass to Mars.

As to the direction Dragon is facing for the TMI burn, I really don't think that will be an issue.  I'm sure they can work out seats that swivel or can be repositioned.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 10/03/2013 08:47 am
Falcon Heavy with a Raptor upper stage, single launch architecture, by 2018, Doesn't sound too unreasonable to me.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 10/03/2013 08:56 am
Falcon Heavy with a Raptor upper stage, single launch architecture, by 2018, Doesn't sound too unreasonable to me.

Yeah, if there's going to be a Raptor ready to fly by 2018.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 10/03/2013 09:02 am

You're not mentioning the biggest disadvantage compared to the other architecture just mentioned: a Falcon Heavy upper stage is not very good for Earth departure.  Centaur is great for Earth departure.  Launching Centaur on Falcon Heavy would be a large amount of work, but it's all ready to go on Atlas V.

Using Atlas V and Centaur gives you more mass to Mars.

Does it? I remember a single Falcon Heavy architecture was the IM baseline. One Atlas V was not even considered, there was thinking of two Atlas V. Or is my recollection wrong?


As to the direction Dragon is facing for the TMI burn, I really don't think that will be an issue.  I'm sure they can work out seats that swivel or can be repositioned.

I am quite sure it is not that easy.

But the more I think about it the more I believe IM are right. A two launch mission adds too much complexity. It is a one launch mission or there is no mission. The timeline is just too short to solve all the complexities involved in a two launch mission.

And as much as I would like to see a raptor upper stage that would solve all problems I don't see one coming. Not in that timeline and not at all.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 10/03/2013 09:07 am

You're not mentioning the biggest disadvantage compared to the other architecture just mentioned: a Falcon Heavy upper stage is not very good for Earth departure.  Centaur is great for Earth departure.  Launching Centaur on Falcon Heavy would be a large amount of work, but it's all ready to go on Atlas V.

Using Atlas V and Centaur gives you more mass to Mars.

Does it? I remember a single Falcon Heavy architecture was the IM baseline. One Atlas V was not even considered, there was thinking of two Atlas V. Or is my recollection wrong?

Yes, the original baseline was a single-launch Falcon Heavy.

I meant when you use a dual-launch architecture, having one launch be a Centaur on Atlas V then allows you to throw a lot of weight that was put in LEO by Falcon Heavy on the other launch gives you a lot of mass to Mars.

As to the direction Dragon is facing for the TMI burn, I really don't think that will be an issue.  I'm sure they can work out seats that swivel or can be repositioned.

I am quite sure it is not that easy.

But the more I think about it the more I believe IM are right. A two launch mission adds too much complexity. It is a one launch mission or there is no mission. The timeline is just too short to solve all the complexities involved in a two launch mission.

And as much as I would like to see a raptor upper stage that would solve all problems I don't see one coming. Not in that timeline and not at all.

The problem is that it seems like a single Falcon Heavy just isn't capable of throwing enough mass toward Mars for the mission to be viable.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 10/03/2013 09:10 am
And as much as I would like to see a raptor upper stage that would solve all problems I don't see one coming. Not in that timeline and not at all.

Wow, you really don't see SpaceX fielding a cryogenic upper stage in the next five years?

Oh, ye of little faith.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 10/03/2013 09:35 am
Wow, you really don't see SpaceX fielding a cryogenic upper stage in the next five years?

Oh, ye of little faith.

 ;D

If you mean cryogenic as an LH stage there are exactly 0% chance of it happening.

If you mean a Methane engine I thought for a while that they might develope one for the FH upper stage. But most seemed not to believe it. I have come round to that with the reasoning they may think they will have MCT soon enough to not need it for Falcon.

But we are getting far OT here.

Back to FH vs. Delta V. Does Delta have a higher throw mass to Mars than FH? Sorry if this is a stupid question.

A Dragon on Delta V might also be a challenge not too easily overcome.


Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 10/03/2013 10:07 am
It's difficult to forsee a one launch architecture for this mission - doing a mass breakdown for the various components; assuming that it's a Dragon that is the Command and Reentry vehicle and an inflatable Habitat is included, nets you about 13 metric tons, which is right on the edge of what a fully expendable Falcon Heavy is supposed to be able to achieve (13.2 tons towards Mars, according to Space X sources). So it is do-able, but only just. Better hope for no engine outs!

And according to costings, a single Falcon Heavy does have the inside edge on price, versus what 2x EELVs would sting the wallets. Though 2x launch architectures I forsee include 1x Falcon 9.1 (13.1 tons) and 1x Atlas V-551 (18.8 tons) - but the Atlas's propellant load would be insufficient to send a 13.1 ton spacecraft payload on Trans Mars Injection. That's why some of the mission designs being bandied about have 2x EELVs with some cryogenic propellant transfer going on. However, I don't think the technology readiness level for that will be mature enough for the January 2018 deadline. So without a Falcon Heavy in the mix for this mission, I don't see how it wouldn't then be some sort of three launch architecture for the mission - 1x spacecraft and 2x propulsion stages :( 

Delta IV would be out of the running for a manned launch as it isn't man-rated, though Atlas V and Falcon 9.1 are going to be. Also, Delta IV-Heavy is a very expensive vehicle, probably beyond the resources of Mr Tito and his partners. However, if DIV-H were available/affordable for a 2x launch architecture;

Launch 1: Atlas V-552 - Command Craft, Habitat and 6 ton hypergolic or solid 'kickstage'.
Launch 2: Delta IV-Heavy with a Delta cryogenic Earth Departure Stage. Crew vehicle rendezvous and docks with EDS mere hours or less after it's launch. TMI occurs with EDS and kickstage burns.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KelvinZero on 10/03/2013 10:45 am
I would like to see this inflatable habitat and the new life support system attached to the ISS and running for a year or so before the mission. And then when we miss the deadline to lob it past mars, we can finally have our EML2 base instead. Maybe we can inspire up a nice SEP tug while we are at it. :)

Actually, has there been any discussion of the applicability of this module to an EML2 base?

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 10/03/2013 11:18 am
Some people - could have been me who started it - have suggested the Enhanced Cygnus (stretched) as a possible Habitat Module. It has 27 cubic meters of pressurized volume, but it could not be used 'off the shelf' - merely as base from which to modify. It would need it's pressure shell probably shrouded with 'blankets' to protect it against micro-meteoroids and radiation shielding within (probably polyethylene sheeting or 'bricks'). But it would be big enough to house a life support system. It's propulsion/power bus would need modification or changing. I'm not advocating 'Space Hab Lego', but the basic shell is good and could form a good basis for a small crew habitat or Mission Module. I wanna see the inflatable Habs come into their own, but I'm wary of the time pressure to get them mature and ready enough for deep space and Mars missions.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 10/03/2013 12:49 pm
What I've been told SpaceX has no interest in helping IM beat them to Mars.  SpaceX is not supporting IM at this time.  I don't think we'll see the FH being used for the IM mission.

The way I interpret this is that SpaceX have their own Mars Flyby plan and have no intention of allowing any other group beat them to it (except NASA who, of course, would have an automatic thumb on the scale if the "lets go" decision was made by The Powers That Be).  It should be interesting if any information goes public from SpaceX.

On topic, this leaves the only two realistic launch service providers for IM as Arianespace (ATV heritage stuff) and Roskosmos (Soyuz CRV and possibly the same basic hardware configuration as James Cameron's trans-lunar jaunt plus a much better EDS).  ULA/Bigelow is possible but enormously expensive and the up-front cost of bankrolling Delta-IVH Phase 1 and to deep space-proof BEAM and CST-100 would be crippling.

I'd say that the plan is dead in the water without NASA or SpaceX although I hope that the ECLSS research continues.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 10/03/2013 04:47 pm
The docking of the Dragon/Hab stack to the EDS. It needs a docking adapter that has to be developed. I would prefer only one docking event, between the Dragon and Hab. That would be a mating adapter as used to dock Dragon to the ISS, so is available.

I would speculate that Centaur already has a well-defined interface for mounting arbitrary payloads, so the task is really just to mount a docking adapter on that platform.  I would imagine it would be similar difficulty as putting the Soft-Capture Mechanism on Hubble.

Quote
Also the docking of the stack to the EDS will have to be positioned with the Dragon facing forward so the Astronauts can take the burn in their seats, it will need to be a strong burn to take advantage of the Oberth effect when leaving LEO. Also the Hab would be already inflated and docked has to take the acceleration in that position with the load of the Hab weight on the Dragon.

Although an eyeballs-in burn is ideal, I don't think the eyeballs-out burn would be a problem.  NASA apparently judged it acceptable when they did the Manned Venus Flyby study.

As for whether the Hab could take the loads, that does present a problem for an inflatable module.  But I was actually thinking of using an Enhanced Cygnus container as the Hab, as has been mentioned previously and as MATTBLAK mentioned in this thread.  That would reduce the uncertainty in the loads analysis, and it compares favorably with an inflatable as a Hab option.  (And the technological maturity of flying shells such as the Cygnus and the MPLM in orbit is much higher than the Bigelow modules.)

Quote
IM have also stated that they would much prefer a one launch configuration for ease of operation. That would be one Falcon Heavy launch.

I agree though that the mass budget would be extremely tight, probably too tight, so favor a two launch approach also.

Prefer yes, but that would seem to rule out the Hab entirely.  Given that IM has talked frequently of overcoming challenges in orbital rendezvous, I think they intend to use two launches.

Quote
The disadvantage is Dragon and Hab need to meet in deep space. Dragon has some delta v available to do rendezvous. It is an added risk though. I don't know if it is possible to launch the hab first and the Dragon only when the hab is in its target trajectory. That would minimize the risk.

This is a serious disadvantage.  What if the docking fails?  What if they discover some problem with the Hab after turning it on?  You are going to want the Dragon and Hab in LEO for an extended period of time to check out all your systems.

(Conversely, you are going to want the Centaur in LEO for as little time as possible, due to boil-off.  I found somewhere by Googling that the longest time a Centaur has ever loitered in orbit was 9 hours.)


Does it? I remember a single Falcon Heavy architecture was the IM baseline. One Atlas V was not even considered, there was thinking of two Atlas V. Or is my recollection wrong?

This was indeed the baseline, but the baseline also excluded the Hab and any additional volume.  I get the distinct impression that they decided this would be untenable, and additional volume of some sort would be required.


What I've been told SpaceX has no interest in helping IM beat them to Mars.  SpaceX is not supporting IM at this time.  I don't think we'll see the FH being used for the IM mission.

The way I interpret this is that SpaceX have their own Mars Flyby plan and have no intention of allowing any other group beat them to it (except NASA who, of course, would have an automatic thumb on the scale if the "lets go" decision was made by The Powers That Be).  It should be interesting if any information goes public from SpaceX.

KSC Sage hasn't elaborated on who told him that or where he heard it from.  I'm going to assume he heard a rumor or FUD until proven otherwise.  (Just like the assertion earlier this year that talks between Inspiration Mars and SpaceX "collapsed" turned out to be unfounded.)

Besides, Gwynne Shotwell said point-blank in a press conference that if Inspiration Mars has the funding, they'd be happy to sell them a rocket.


I have two questions for the more knowledgeable people on this board:

1) How much mass can Centaur put through TMI?
2) How long can a Centaur theoretically loiter in LEO?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 10/03/2013 05:25 pm

Does it? I remember a single Falcon Heavy architecture was the IM baseline. One Atlas V was not even considered, there was thinking of two Atlas V. Or is my recollection wrong?

This was indeed the baseline, but the baseline also excluded the Hab and any additional volume.  I get the distinct impression that they decided this would be untenable, and additional volume of some sort would be required.

No the baseline was 13 tons including a hab volume. A Dragon without hab was never considered. Though that was not clear from the initial press conference.

The docking of the Dragon/Hab stack to the EDS. It needs a docking adapter that has to be developed. I would prefer only one docking event, between the Dragon and Hab. That would be a mating adapter as used to dock Dragon to the ISS, so is available.

I would speculate that Centaur already has a well-defined interface for mounting arbitrary payloads, so the task is really just to mount a docking adapter on that platform.  I would imagine it would be similar difficulty as putting the Soft-Capture Mechanism on Hubble.

A docking adapter would have to take the forces of accelerating both a Dragon and a Hab with combined more than 13 tons. That is not trivial and would need to be developed. Not that it is impossible but certainly an additional task required for any two launch architecture unless both components are accelerated into TMI independently.

Though I am also not really comfortable with two independent TMI injections and the objects meeting out there.

That's why I am back to thinking one launch or no missions.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 10/03/2013 08:08 pm
No the baseline was 13 tons including a hab volume. A Dragon without hab was never considered. Though that was not clear from the initial press conference.

I stand corrected; the original press release does mention an inflatable hab module.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KelvinZero on 10/04/2013 01:00 am
Some people - could have been me who started it - have suggested the Enhanced Cygnus (stretched) as a possible Habitat Module. It has 27 cubic meters of pressurized volume, but it could not be used 'off the shelf' - merely as base from which to modify. It would need it's pressure shell probably shrouded with 'blankets' to protect it against micro-meteoroids and radiation shielding within (probably polyethylene sheeting or 'bricks'). But it would be big enough to house a life support system. It's propulsion/power bus would need modification or changing. I'm not advocating 'Space Hab Lego', but the basic shell is good and could form a good basis for a small crew habitat or Mission Module. I wanna see the inflatable Habs come into their own, but I'm wary of the time pressure to get them mature and ready enough for deep space and Mars missions.

I Luuve space hab lego!

But seriously this hab seems an entirely appropriate component of Flexible Path to develop entirely with NASA money. This hab has to be high on the list of things NASA HSF and the ISS should be for. If we ever intend to spend many months beyond earth orbit we need real confidence in this element, and that only comes with many months of testing of the specific hardware. It is only the pushing it off for the mars flyby itself which is not a NASA type mission.

Im hoping that if anything happens, it pushes to completion a  perfectly good hab design. It would strike me as a travesty if we could satisfy all the requirements for this mission and in the end somehow the only lasting benefit is the "inspiration". Ugh.

Would a hab that connects to Dragon be any different to a hab we could connect to Orion? (I had assumed they both were compatible, and with ISS)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Vultur on 10/04/2013 04:02 am
It's difficult to forsee a one launch architecture for this mission - doing a mass breakdown for the various components; assuming that it's a Dragon that is a the Command and Reentry vehicle and an inflatable Habitat is included, nets you about 13 metric tons, which is right on the edge of what a fully expendable Faclon Heavy is supposed to be able to achieve (13.2 tons towards Mars, according to Space X sources). So it is do-able, but only just. Better hope for no engine outs!


What size hab module is that assuming? I'd imagine they could get Bigelow to make one the size they need... Clearly they can make small ones, the ISS one (BEAM) will be smaller than "standard" (probably too small for this... but...)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: catiare on 10/06/2013 11:23 pm


Does it? I remember a single Falcon Heavy architecture was the IM baseline. One Atlas V was not even considered, there was thinking of two Atlas V. Or is my recollection wrong?

This was indeed the baseline, but the baseline also excluded the Hab and any additional volume.  I get the distinct impression that they decided this would be untenable, and additional volume of some sort would be required.

No the baseline was 13 tons including a hab volume. A Dragon without hab was never considered. Though that was not clear from the initial press conference.

The docking of the Dragon/Hab stack to the EDS. It needs a docking adapter that has to be developed. I would prefer only one docking event, between the Dragon and Hab. That would be a mating adapter as used to dock Dragon to the ISS, so is available.

I would speculate that Centaur already has a well-defined interface for mounting arbitrary payloads, so the task is really just to mount a docking adapter on that platform.  I would imagine it would be similar difficulty as putting the Soft-Capture Mechanism on Hubble.

A docking adapter would have to take the forces of accelerating both a Dragon and a Hab with combined more than 13 tons. That is not trivial and would need to be developed. Not that it is impossible but certainly an additional task required for any two launch architecture unless both components are accelerated into TMI independently.

Though I am also not really comfortable with two independent TMI injections and the objects meeting out there.

That's why I am back to thinking one launch or no missions.

Has a mission with no Hab considered at all? Can a crew of two fit with all consumables and life support on the dragon alone? It will be cramped but like Zubrin's Mars mission, these will be Astronauts with the "right stuff".

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=25132.0;all
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Comga on 10/07/2013 02:39 am
IM needs a hab module in which to deploy their accessible and maintainable ECLSS.  It does not seem that an inflatable hab module would give them this.  On the other hand a Cygnus derivative would.

It is also likely that IM has considered the Japanese concept for a crew vehicle. (http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/hyperbola/2009/01/pictures_jaxas_h-iib_launched/)  Here the habitation module launches behind the orbital and descent module.  This is unlike the Soyuz,  so it would not stay with or burden the capsule in an abort.  However, unlike the Apollo Lunar Module, it would never fly independently.  Rather, arms running along the outside would keep it attached to the capsule, then  after TMI swing it to the front of the capsule, where it would be berthed.  Both Dragon and Cygnus already have berthing adapters. 

It also appears that Cygnus is a bit narrower in diameter than the inside of an unobstructed Dragon trunk. So a custom Trunk could surround the Cygnus derived Hab module, providing shielding and the load path for launching the Dragon.  This could lead to the single FH launch mission.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Vultur on 10/07/2013 03:05 am
Has a mission with no Hab considered at all? Can a crew of two fit with all consumables and life support on the dragon alone? It will be cramped but like Zubrin's Mars mission, these will be Astronauts with the "right stuff".

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=25132.0;all
Even if it could technically fit (I don't know) that would need a really special crew.

I'm not going to say it's flatly impossible, out of the seven billion people on Earth you might be able to find a few couples that could stand it, but... pretty close.

Exercise would also be difficult, but that probably pales next to the psychological issues...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 10/07/2013 03:40 pm
Any chance of getting some answers to these questions?

I have two questions for the more knowledgeable people on this board:

1) How much mass can Centaur put through TMI?
2) How long can a Centaur theoretically loiter in LEO?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 10/09/2013 01:40 am
Any chance of getting some answers to these questions?

I have two questions for the more knowledgeable people on this board:

1) How much mass can Centaur put through TMI?
2) How long can a Centaur theoretically loiter in LEO?

The Centaur has a hydrogen engine and like all hydrogen inspace stages has mammoth problems with boil off.  So the maximum loiter time is only a few hours.  For a high delta-v destination like Mars it may be minutes.  You can derive the equation and solve if you want to.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 10/09/2013 04:07 pm
Maximum loiter time can be increased significantly with MLI and a sunshade. ULA has already looked at this.

As far as TMI performance, well, you do know how to use the rocket equation, right? ;)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 10/09/2013 04:33 pm
I know how to plug-and-chug numbers in an equation.  But what I don't know are things like Centaur performance, Centaur mass, amount of fuel remaining once the Centaur reaches orbit, how much delta-V is required for TMI, etc.

I've seen plenty of people on NSF do back-of-the-envelope calculations for orbital transfers, so I was hoping that one of them would be willing to step in with a single calculation.  I don't really feel like digging up all the information myself, since I don't plan on calculating orbital transfers with any regularity.  If nobody is willing to help, then I'll just wait for the architecture announcement.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MikeAtkinson on 10/09/2013 05:51 pm
sesquipedalian, This has all the info you need

http://spirit.as.utexas.edu/~fiso/telecon/Thronson-Kutter_12-15-10/Kutter%2012-15-10.pdf
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 10/11/2013 04:34 am
Hmm.  Well, it didn't actually answer my questions, but it was certainly an interesting read. :)  Thanks for the link.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 10/12/2013 01:42 am
Astronautics has some figures, as does spacelaunchreport.com. Be warned, they are just a starting point but good enough for Internet ramblings. Also, check wikipedia's "delta-v budget" page for TMI delta-v starting point.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KSC Sage on 11/20/2013 03:44 pm
IMF will sharing at the Space Hearing today.  http://science.house.gov/hearing/subcommittee-space-hearing-commercial-space

They've completed their Architecture Review and it may be possible they'll release it today.  A very interesting concept.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 11/20/2013 04:59 pm
New article about IM: http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/going-to-mars-billionaire-dennis-tito-plans-manned-mission-with-possible-2017-launch/2013/11/20/b859bc76-51e8-11e3-9fe0-fd2ca728e67c_story.html?hpid=z4

Not the most reliable of sources, but we'll have to go through with it....

So, the plan is to launch the spacecraft, which is a Cygnus, on SLS, park it in LEO, launch the crew separately, then send the stack to Mars. Isn't an SLS hugely overpowered to send a propulsion stage (iCPS, I assume) and Cygnus spacecraft to LEO? That's less than 35 tons total. And how do they plan on getting the crew back?

EDIT: Found a better source : http://www.newspacejournal.com/2013/11/20/inspiration-mars-seeks-closer-ties-with-nasa-for-its-human-mars-flyby-mission/

It also includes an image of the spacecraft. They lost a lot of credibility with me though. No way is DUUS going to be ready by 2017.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: gbaikie on 11/20/2013 05:36 pm
New article about IM: http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/going-to-mars-billionaire-dennis-tito-plans-manned-mission-with-possible-2017-launch/2013/11/20/b859bc76-51e8-11e3-9fe0-fd2ca728e67c_story.html?hpid=z4

Not the most reliable of sources, but we'll have to go through with it....

So, the plan is to launch the spacecraft, which is a Cygnus, on SLS, park it in LEO, launch the crew separately, then send the stack to Mars. Isn't an SLS hugely overpowered to send a propulsion stage (iCPS, I assume) and Cygnus spacecraft to LEO? That's less than 35 tons total. And how do they plan on getting the crew back?

EDIT: Found a better source : http://www.newspacejournal.com/2013/11/20/inspiration-mars-seeks-closer-ties-with-nasa-for-its-human-mars-flyby-mission/

It also includes an image of the spacecraft. They lost a lot of credibility with me though. No way is DUUS going to be ready by 2017.

I suppose for America, with it's last chance to be first, such details can't be mentioned.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: darkbluenine on 11/20/2013 06:37 pm
They lost a lot of credibility with me though. No way is DUUS going to be ready by 2017.

At least a handful of showstoppers:

1) Aforementioned DUUS development acceleration by six years.
2) Equipping and testing MPCV with a higher temp heatshield when it's 5K lbs. overweight for landing.
3) NASA funding for 1) & 2).
4) NASA funding for a Cygnus-based habitat if Tito isn't going to cover all of it.
5) Commercial crew underfunding that may prevent readiness by late 2017.
6) Betting all this hardware on first launch of a new HLV (assuming SLS can stick to its December 2017 test in the face of sequestration).
7) DUUS propellant storage if the SLS and commercial crew launches can't be aligned.

Given all this, I'd say that the architecture with three commercial launches is less risky, although I'm not sure a 2017 Mars circumnavigation mission was ever in the cards given the lack of schedule margin.  I'd back off to Tito's 2021 opportunity, which would allow a lot of the technical and programmatic uncertainties to shake themselves out. Regardless, some sort of human deep space endurance mission like this will be needed someday.

More linkage:

http://www.inspirationmars.org/IM%20Architecture%20Study%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf

http://www.inspirationmars.org/IM%20Architecture%20Study%20Report%20Summary.pdf

http://www.inspirationmars.org/Written_Testimony_DTito_Nov2013.pdf

Edit:  Added 2021 backup opportunity.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 11/20/2013 06:41 pm
The Inspiration Mars website has the documents available for download:

http://www.inspirationmars.org/IM%20press%20release_Arch%20Summary-Testimony_11-19-13.pdf

http://www.inspirationmars.org/Written_Testimony_DTito_Nov2013.pdf

http://www.inspirationmars.org/IM%20Architecture%20Study%20Report%20Summary.pdf

http://www.inspirationmars.org/IM%20Architecture%20Study%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf

Quite a lot to read through.  But the architecture report does say that 1) non-SLS missions would require at least three launches, and 2) the DUUS could be developed in time for a launch.  There's also a nice high-level schedule on page 15 (17 in the toolbar).

EDIT: ninja'd, d'oh
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KSC Sage on 11/20/2013 07:17 pm
It also includes an image of the spacecraft. They lost a lot of credibility with me though. No way is DUUS going to be ready by 2017.

Don't be surprised if NASA drops ICPS and goes straight to the DUUS for the 2017 launch.  It's being evaluated right now - stay tuned.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 11/20/2013 07:28 pm
It also includes an image of the spacecraft. They lost a lot of credibility with me though. No way is DUUS going to be ready by 2017.

Don't be surprised if NASA drops ICPS and goes straight to the DUUS for the 2017 launch.  It's being evaluated right now - stay tuned.
I've stayed tuned for such big updates for months now ;D

Would be very interesting if it happens. DUUS could theoretically be ready pretty soon, yes, though I don't really foresee the budget allowing for this. However, that is a topic for another thread. Thanks for the update.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: darkbluenine on 11/20/2013 07:46 pm
It's being evaluated right now

At what level?

Thx in advance.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 11/20/2013 08:17 pm
I think this architecture is a pretty shrewd move.  It trades financial and technical risk (raising all the money yourself from philanthropic sources, launching on three commercial vehicles) for political risk.  Everybody gets a piece of the pie: Orion, SLS, DUUS, Commercial Crew.  We already know that there are strong political pressures to develop these things, and this architecture provides a justification for those pressures with a specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and time-bound (S.M.A.R.T.) application.  It now becomes a national objective rather than make-work.

The political risk still exists, however, that nobody will be able to get their act together and this will sit in committee for a year.  That would torpedo any chance of this particular architecture working.  I would conjecture that Tito might still try for the 2021 opportunity using an all-philanthropic approach, but that's another discussion.

Another neat thing about this architecture is that it would give the SLS and Orion forces a stake in commercial crew.  NASA would be able to point to this mission as a reason to avoid delaying commercial crew any longer, and perhaps even accelerate it or boost funding.  It would be rather embarrassing if SLS launched this mission and the only taxi ride available was a Soyuz.  (Not to mention that it would be useful to have the full 7 crew on hand to help check out the spacecraft.)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: daj24 on 11/20/2013 08:38 pm
Probably not a good development.  Finding all the necessary money was a long shot especially in such a short time.  Banking on NASA, who is in the midst of a large (imho) cash short fall, is just a losing proposition.  I don't see this group of politicians sticking their collective necks out to help.
Title: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Star One on 11/20/2013 09:21 pm
New article about IM: http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/going-to-mars-billionaire-dennis-tito-plans-manned-mission-with-possible-2017-launch/2013/11/20/b859bc76-51e8-11e3-9fe0-fd2ca728e67c_story.html?hpid=z4

Not the most reliable of sources, but we'll have to go through with it....

So, the plan is to launch the spacecraft, which is a Cygnus, on SLS, park it in LEO, launch the crew separately, then send the stack to Mars. Isn't an SLS hugely overpowered to send a propulsion stage (iCPS, I assume) and Cygnus spacecraft to LEO? That's less than 35 tons total. And how do they plan on getting the crew back?

EDIT: Found a better source : http://www.newspacejournal.com/2013/11/20/inspiration-mars-seeks-closer-ties-with-nasa-for-its-human-mars-flyby-mission/

It also includes an image of the spacecraft. They lost a lot of credibility with me though. No way is DUUS going to be ready by 2017.

Thanks for those. I suppose it gives the SLS a definitive mission so it's appealing from that aspect, but I believe the timescale on this is going to make this rather difficult to achieve. As for getting any money from Congress for this I see that as being a long shot at best.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 11/20/2013 09:57 pm
I think relying on SLS and Orion - especially when their futures are not set in stone - is a mistake. And a two or maybe three EELV launch architecture is probably the only way to make the architecture affordable. And it gratifies me to see the Cygnus is the baseline for the Habitation Module (see earlier in the thread ;) )

Launch 1: Cygnus (Enhanced) Habitat Module on an Antares 130 launcher.
Launch 2: Crew in a Dragon (enhanced) spacecraft on Falcon 9 1.1. Rendezvous and dock with Cygnus Hab.
Launch 3: Falcon Heavy with Earth Departure stage. Dragon/Hab rendezvous and dock with EDS. TMI follows.

Or could it be done with 2x launches? 1x Falcon Heavy with EDS & Hab, 1x Falcon 9 with Dragon & crew?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Comga on 11/20/2013 11:53 pm
The Inspiration Mars website has the documents available for download:

http://www.inspirationmars.org/IM%20Architecture%20Study%20Report%20Summary.pdf (http://www.inspirationmars.org/IM%20Architecture%20Study%20Report%20Summary.pdf)

Quite a lot to read through.  But the architecture report does say that 1) non-SLS missions would require at least three launches, and 2) the DUUS could be developed in time for a launch.  There's also a nice high-level schedule on page 15

The new details include a hard-shell structure, not an inflatable.  That seemed obvious from the outset.  They need volume on launch for storage and a spread-out ECLSS which can be serviced over the 501 days of the flight.  An inflatable would only give them a playpen.

But SLS and Orion?   Counting on an SLS in 2017 seems to be asking NASA to dedicate the SLS development to the IM mission.  It is hard to see that happening.  And extra money?  Really hard to see that happening.  Could Lockheed build a duplicate Orion for IM or could NASA give one to them?  I don't think either of these is possible.
 
This will probably still be a great adventure in 2032, the next time the trajectory would work.  By then IM may have enough proven hardware with which to equip their mission.

edit: Post 2000!
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 11/21/2013 12:10 am
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lurker Steve on 11/21/2013 12:42 am
How much extra funding were they expecting NASA to come up with, 700 million (on top of the current commercial crew and SLS/Orion funding I suppose) ?
Actually, doesn't this make a better mission than EM-1, and kills the Obama asteroid mission that isn't gaining much public interest ?
I guess the problem is, what is the next step ? What usable technologies does NASA have after this ? Will the modified Cygnus really be the model for the DSH ?
 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: deltaV on 11/21/2013 01:29 am
IM state the C3 for their trajectory is 40.5 km^2/s^2. This is a higher energy trajectory than a standard (non-free-return) TMI. Their planned payload (hab etc) is 13 tonnes plus margin and SLS can get 19 tonnes to that C3 (according to IM).

For comparison according to Schilling's payload estimator tool Falcon Heavy can get only 7 tonnes to that C3, which is clearly insufficient. It looks like three launches would be required if Falcon Heavy were used instead of SLS. For example two launches each with a 50 tonne hypergolic stage and one launch with the hab and crew.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 11/21/2013 01:38 am
Watching the video of Dennis Tito's testimony.. he really doesn't listen to questions before answering.

Three separate people asked him how much money he needs from the government. Each time he gave different answers, and only on the third time did he say that he's talking about funding for NASA to complete the Dual Use Upper Stage for the SLS, which he estimates at about $700M.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: darkbluenine on 11/21/2013 02:43 am
Actually, doesn't this make a better mission than EM-1, and kills the Obama asteroid mission that isn't gaining much public interest ?

It is better than EM-1 or ARM, but the Administration will have to request the funding or at least agree to it.  According to NASAWatch, the Administration only supports Inspiration Mars as a private endeavor -- no NASA funding:

Quote
Tito and MacCallum also said that they had briefed the White House on the Inspiration Mars concept and that the White House was supportive. Administration sources contacted tonight note that it has been many months since Inspiration Mars briefed them and that the mission that they were briefed on was a wholly private venture that did not require NASA funds - certainly not a "NASA Mission". Administration sources add that it would be incorrect to state that Administration supports the Inspiration Mars mission as a "NASA mission" requiring NASA funds.

http://nasawatch.com/archives/2013/11/is-inspiration.html
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 11/21/2013 02:49 am
Considering how poorly Tito explained what he wanted to Congress, when he was there in person, I can only imagine how confusing the teleconference was.

I got the impression from his testimony that he was hoping for taxpayer support to get DUUS flying by 2017, but would raise the remaining $300M for the mission privately.

.. and he wants the SLS flight for free.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: geza on 11/21/2013 04:39 am
Very confusing. OK, 700 million government money for DUUS. Beyond this, they obviously assume that the government provides the SLS lauch for free and they do not wish to count it as a cost element for IM.  It would be the test launch of SLS, after all. However, committing SLS to IM would mean that SLS loses its flexibility in schedule. Wouldn't it require an increase cost margin to cover the contingencies? OK, 300 million for Cygnus-derived spacecraft (incl. service module) and for the crew launch. Then, what about the reentry module? In what extent it will be different from Orion? VERY significantly, as I understand.They refer to it as Orion Pathfinder Earth Reentry Pod. Originally, they wanted to use a true Orion with beefed up heat-shield as habitat space AND for reentry. Unfortunately, this architecture did not close. When they opted for Cygnus, they decided that the capsule was ONLY for reentry and should be small. Obviously, developing this "pathfinder" is a significant extra cost. Even if the actual cost of the capsule can be accommodated within the Orion budget, as test article. It is pity that they released only the summary of their architecture study, which is more verbose in inspiration, than in architecture details.

I can understand, that SLS/Orion people, who are afraid of cancellation of their project, were extremely happy to work on something meaningful, instead of a rocked for which no meaningful cargo is budgeted...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: geza on 11/21/2013 06:25 am
According to the figures, the Earth Reentry Pod is only marginally wider than Cygnus, diameter of which is 3 m. (Orion is 5 m.) Another figure sketches the internal layout of the pad. The diameter pressurized volume is much less than the diameter of the heat shield. It is cc. 2 m, just enough for two people for reentry. Obviously, they wanted light capsule with relatively large heat-shield.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: a_langwich on 11/21/2013 07:14 am
According to the figures, the Earth Reentry Pod is only marginally wider than Cygnus, diameter of which is 3 m. (Orion is 5 m.) Another figure sketches the internal layout of the pad. The diameter pressurized volume is much less than the diameter of the heat shield. It is cc. 2 m, just enough for two people for reentry. Obviously, they wanted light capsule with relatively large heat-shield.

Hmm, that's not Orion, that's a completely new capsule.  I can't imagine any benefit to the Orion program for such a vehicle, especially considering they have the full sized one well under way for a test next year.  I guess IM is arguing that their design is what should be used for future missions?  I don't see that either.

It's hard not to be critical of this bait-and-switch manuever, from "I'll try something risky with my own money" to "you should give me taxpayer money to do my crazy mission."  I guess, though, he thought it was worth a shot while he was trying to fundraise from others, to fundraise from Congress. 

However, it seems like this is a pretty ringing endorsement of SLS, Orion, and related cryogenic upper stage work, especially for Mars missions.  It's a good sign that trying the current options in the solution space tends to make you want a big heavy lifter, an efficient cryogenic upper stage, some sort of deep-space habitat, and a BEO capsule with a very beefy heat shield.  That's just for the simplest possible Mars mission!  Surely more capable and useful Mars missions would have even greater need for these.

Certainly SpaceX needs some different upper stage options for Falcon Heavy if it is to be used for interplanetary missions.  Considering they haven't even launched a Falcon Heavy, nor introduced the Raptor, there is hopefully more to come.  For now, they are playing in the LEO market.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 11/21/2013 07:38 am
According to the figures, the Earth Reentry Pod is only marginally wider than Cygnus, diameter of which is 3 m. (Orion is 5 m.) Another figure sketches the internal layout of the pad. The diameter pressurized volume is much less than the diameter of the heat shield. It is cc. 2 m, just enough for two people for reentry. Obviously, they wanted light capsule with relatively large heat-shield.

Then I wonder why they don't buy a Soyuz Descent Module with a 'beefed up' heatshield, even though I realize they aren't that light?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 11/21/2013 07:40 am
However, it seems like this is a pretty ringing endorsement of SLS, Orion, and related cryogenic upper stage work, especially for Mars missions.

Sure, if you think any endorsement from a bait-and-switch manueverer can be "ringing". Make up your mind.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KelvinZero on 11/21/2013 09:44 am
However, it seems like this is a pretty ringing endorsement of SLS, Orion, and related cryogenic upper stage work, especially for Mars missions.

Sure, if you think any endorsement from a bait-and-switch manueverer can be "ringing". Make up your mind.
To me it reflects the situation that congress demands SLS be built and launched, but refuse to fund either big (too expensive, eg lunar) or small (could be done with commercial, eg asteroid capture) nasa missions for it.. I mean, its this or a loop around the moon in the Orion with not even an intention of building a moon lander.. and I dont think we are getting this.

Personally I think every aspect of this except the throwing it at mars would be a legitimate target for NASA funding. It's a BEO space station robust enough to sit hundreds of days from earth.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MickQ on 11/21/2013 11:51 am
According to the figures, the Earth Reentry Pod is only marginally wider than Cygnus, diameter of which is 3 m. (Orion is 5 m.) Another figure sketches the internal layout of the pad. The diameter pressurized volume is much less than the diameter of the heat shield. It is cc. 2 m, just enough for two people for reentry. Obviously, they wanted light capsule with relatively large heat-shield.

Then I wonder why they don't buy a Soyuz Descent Module with a 'beefed up' heatshield, even though I realize they aren't that light?

From the outset Tito said he wanted this to be All American, didn't he ?

Mick.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: IRobot on 11/21/2013 12:31 pm
From the outset Tito said he wanted this to be All American, didn't he ?
Guess who builds Cygnus's PMC...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Chilly on 11/21/2013 02:28 pm
This feels like a "Hail Mary" play that is less about available technology than it is funding.

My guess is IM determined that a commercial approach was the most feasible. Given the current state of vehicle development, we're much more likely to see actual working hardware from SpaceX and Orbital than we are NASA.

But this approach would've put it *all* on IM's shoulders, meaning real money needed to be on hand very soon (which they didn't have). So they settled on a NASA-centric mission architecture in the hopes that they could gin up enough support within Congress, knowing that they're flailing about to find a real purpose for SLS. If they're building it anyway, maybe this'll give them better cover than just recreating Apollo 8. And a hard deadline certainly wouldn't hurt.

Shrewd and desperate. But mostly desperate.

Given SpaceX's goals of reaching Mars, I was always curious as to why they weren't the obvious partner for such a project even if it meant waiting until 2021. That extra few years could make an enormous difference in capabilities - and the idea of a manned Moon-Venus-Mars flyby is tremendously exciting IMHO. If my last name was Gates or Buffet, I'd be happy to throw a billion at it.

A very disappointing development.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 11/21/2013 06:33 pm
It's being evaluated right now

At what level?

Thx in advance.

The highest. iCPS has been a problem from day 1 - all the way from mission requirements/contracts to syncing the new avionics release with the SLS development time. Remember, it was one of the Yellow items on the PDR.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: catiare on 11/21/2013 08:43 pm
They lost a lot of credibility with me though. No way is DUUS going to be ready by 2017.

I think this architecture looks good in paper but no way it will be ready by 2017. I think the only way for this mission to happen by that time would be by using FH+Crew Dragon; partly because these projects are already being funded from other sources and maiden flights are well before that date. It will still be a long short though, partly because of the specific modifications needed for this mission mainly on the Dragon side (life support, communications, radiation mitigation, etc, etc). It will be very cramped akin to the polynesians navigating the pacific ocean on canoes but if all the consumables and life support systems fit on the Dragon (and Trunk) that would be the way to go. A Flyby to the Moon could be done prior to this mission to test all systems and technologies.

Thoughts?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: darkbluenine on 11/22/2013 03:11 am
The highest.

As in Gerst/Bolden?  Really?  From I've seen/heard, it's still at the level of just another industry (Boeing in this case) proposal making its way around.

Quote
iCPS has been a problem from day 1 - all the way from mission requirements/contracts to syncing the new avionics release with the SLS development time. Remember, it was one of the Yellow items on the PDR.

Sure, but there were a lot of yellows that have yet to see such senior NASA management (if that's what you mean by "highest") attention.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: cryptoanarchy on 11/22/2013 03:14 am
They lost a lot of credibility with me though. No way is DUUS going to be ready by 2017.

I think this architecture looks good in paper but no way it will be ready by 2017. I think the only way for this mission to happen by that time would be by using FH+Crew Dragon; partly because these projects are already being funded from other sources and maiden flights are well before that date. It will still be a long short though, partly because of the specific modifications needed for this mission mainly on the Dragon side (life support, communications, radiation mitigation, etc, etc). It will be very cramped akin to the polynesians navigating the pacific ocean on canoes but if all the consumables and life support systems fit on the Dragon (and Trunk) that would be the way to go. A Flyby to the Moon could be done prior to this mission to test all systems and technologies.

Thoughts?

Only way I can see to do this in reality is to use Dragon Rider and a Bigelow Sundancer propelled by a custom stage launched on two or three falcon heavies.  Additional propellent would need to be used to slow down for Earth re-entry so that the Dragon could be used as-is.   
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: darkbluenine on 11/22/2013 03:16 am
... but if all the consumables and life support systems fit on the Dragon (and Trunk) that would be the way to go. A Flyby to the Moon could be done prior to this mission to test all systems and technologies.

Thoughts?

Take it with a grain of salt, but I heard a year or two ago from military folks trying to secure secondary rides that one of the FH test launches will put a Dragon around the Moon.  Even if true, that won't prove out the Inspiration Mars mods, but it's a step in your direction.

FWIW...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 11/22/2013 04:32 am
According to the figures, the Earth Reentry Pod is only marginally wider than Cygnus, diameter of which is 3 m. (Orion is 5 m.) Another figure sketches the internal layout of the pad. The diameter pressurized volume is much less than the diameter of the heat shield. It is cc. 2 m, just enough for two people for reentry. Obviously, they wanted light capsule with relatively large heat-shield.

Then I wonder why they don't buy a Soyuz Descent Module with a 'beefed up' heatshield, even though I realize they aren't that light?

From the outset Tito said he wanted this to be All American, didn't he ?

Mick.

Mr Tito also strongly implied that he wanted this venture to be a Commercial Space one, too. But now by bringing SLS, DUUS, KSC etc into this... (shrugs). American Astronauts will be riding Soyuz to ISS for years to come, so I don't see how using a 3 ton Soyuz Descent Module is much different. And we already know that the Soyuz/Zond heatshielding has withstood 'Lunar Reentry' velocities. And above all; it's a well-proven vehicle.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 11/22/2013 04:42 am
American Astronauts will be riding Soyuz to ISS for years to come, so I don't see how using a 3 ton Soyuz Descent Module is much different. And we already know that the Soyuz/Zond heatshielding has withstood 'Lunar Reentry' velocities. And above all; it's a well-proven vehicle.

That's lunar reentry. Inspiration Mars will come in much faster than even a normal return from Mars. Much faster than that return probe that presently holds the record for return speed and that used NASA pica. Sorry I forgot the name. I am not saying Soyuz cannot do it just that we don't know.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 11/22/2013 04:53 am
Obviously the Soyuz heatshield would need 'beefing up'. I don't know what they use as shield material, but I don't believe they use Pica X. Orion's heatshield would need upgrading as well. Dragon is the only heatshield that is being designed from day one to be good enough. And it's Dragon I'd like to see as the Command Module/Return Capsule. Also, I only bought up the Soyuz as a possible reentry vehicle because there are some Russian Mars mission DRM's out there somewhere that touted an upgraded Soyuz as the return vehicle. Also; does anyone know if the I.M. stack would have enough delta-vee to perform a 'slow down' burn to reduce the load on the return capsule's heatshield?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: deltaV on 11/22/2013 01:23 pm
Dragon is the only heatshield that is being designed from day one to be good enough.

Are you sure Dragon is designed for this trajectory? Even if Dragon is designed for an ordinary Mars Hoffman transfer return it may not be good enough for this free return trajectory too.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 11/22/2013 03:27 pm
Instead of hand-wringing about how the proposed mission won't work, I think it would be more productive to discuss how it could work, either with tweaks or larger architecture changes.

Supposing IM didn't have the DUUS and didn't launch on SLS.  What would it use for TMI?  The architecture study apparently indicated that it couldn't be done without in-flight refueling.  What about other options, such as docking multiple upper-stages together in a "multi-stage" TMI burn?  Or what about doing multiple small burns, like India's Mars Orbiter Mission?

This article has some good critiquing of the mission, and suggests a non-SLS approach, though it doesn't go into detail beyond listing which rockets would launch from which pads.
http://innerspace.net/2013/11/21/mr-tito-goes-to-washington-and-inspiration-mars-goes-off-the-rails/
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: catiare on 11/22/2013 03:44 pm
Only way I can see to do this in reality is to use Dragon Rider and a Bigelow Sundancer propelled by a custom stage launched on two or three falcon heavies.  Additional propellent would need to be used to slow down for Earth re-entry so that the Dragon could be used as-is.   

You forgot the unicorn.
The multiple launches would make this too complex and further development would be required. Sorry to beat a dead horse but Robert Zubrin suggested a mission to land on Mars with a Dragon. I'm not saying that is the best design for that mission but if on his calculations, a Dragon Capsule could land on Mars, could it perform this mission as well?
 
http://www.marssociety.org/home/press/news/theuseofspacexhardwaretoaccomplishnear-termhumanmarsmission

"...The SpaceX Falcon Heavy will have a launch capacity of 53 metric tons to low Earth orbit. This means that if a conventional hydrogen-oxygen chemical rocket upper stage were added, it could have the capability of sending about 17.5 tons on a trajectory to Mars..."

"...The capsule would carry 2500 kilograms of consumables, sufficient, if water and oxygen recycling systems are employed, to support the two-person crew for up to three years..."

"...The habitable volume of the Dragon capsule is admittedly lower than optimal. However it should be noted that with 5 cubic meters per crew member, it is 2.5 times higher than the 2 cubic meters per crew member possessed by Apollo crews. Alternative comparisons include 9 cubic meters per crew member on the Space Shuttle, or 8 cubic meters per crew member on a German U-Boat (Type VII, the fleet workhorse) during WWII. This would be uncomfortable, but ultimately, workable by a truly dedicated crew..."

Why not send the Dragon in a direct trajectory to mars with no rendezvous or TMI.


Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 11/22/2013 03:59 pm
You forgot the unicorn.
The multiple launches would make this too complex and further development would be required. Sorry to beat a dead horse but Robert Zubrin suggested a mission to land on Mars with a Dragon. I'm not saying that is the best design for that mission but if on his calculations, a Dragon Capsule could land on Mars, could it perform this mission as well?
 
http://www.marssociety.org/home/press/news/theuseofspacexhardwaretoaccomplishnear-termhumanmarsmission

"...The SpaceX Falcon Heavy will have a launch capacity of 53 metric tons to low Earth orbit. This means that if a conventional hydrogen-oxygen chemical rocket upper stage were added, it could have the capability of sending about 17.5 tons on a trajectory to Mars..."

And there you have your unicorn: "a conventional hydrogen-oxygen chemical rocket upper stage".  Developing a hydrogen upper stage for Falcon Heavy would be very expensive -- probably much more than developing Falcon 9 from scratch cost in the first place.  IIRC, even Musk has mentioned figures above $1 billion to develop a hydrogen upper stage for Falcon.

Also, there's no way such a hydrogen stage would be ready by the IM launch window.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: darkbluenine on 11/22/2013 04:08 pm
That article falls into the tired trap of arguing about rockets and ignoring the big issues of funding and esoteric technologies like life support. It's the playing with Legos ("I can build my own space mission!") approach.

That's not the point of Money's article.  The major argument for a heavy launch and against multiple smaller launches in this latest Inspiration Mars study report is the likelihood that three smaller launches could be carried out in a few weeks.  The study put that likelihood as too low to rely on.  Money correctly points out that, even without any planning, the industry conducts several launches within a few weeks of each other all the time.  (And will have an increased capability to do so by the window for the Inspiration Mars mission.)

Money is not building his own space mission.  He's just pointing out that a (maybe the) major assumption that Tito traded the latest iteration of his space mission upon is unfounded.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: darkbluenine on 11/22/2013 04:21 pm
And there you have your unicorn... IIRC, even Musk has mentioned figures above $1 billion to develop a hydrogen upper stage for Falcon.

It's hard to see how a new $1B FH cryo upper stage by 2017 is a substantially different unicorn from a new $700M SLS cryo upper stage by 2017.  The problem isn't the choice of hardware.  It's the lack of hardware and budget for the given timeframe.  The mission itself is a unicorn. 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: tigerade on 11/22/2013 04:28 pm
NASA rejects Tito's request for Inspiration Mars funding:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-57613362-1/nasa-balks-at-billionaires-request-for-mars-mission-aid/

Quote
Inspiration Mars' proposed schedule is a significant challenge due to life support systems, space radiation response, habitats, and the human psychology of being in a small spacecraft for over 500 days. The agency is willing to share technical and programmatic expertise with Inspiration Mars, but is unable to commit to sharing expenses with them.

Did Tito actually believe that NASA was going to invest $700 million to the project in a time of austerity? :/
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: RonM on 11/22/2013 04:39 pm
NASA rejects Tito's request for Inspiration Mars funding:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-57613362-1/nasa-balks-at-billionaires-request-for-mars-mission-aid/

Quote
Inspiration Mars' proposed schedule is a significant challenge due to life support systems, space radiation response, habitats, and the human psychology of being in a small spacecraft for over 500 days. The agency is willing to share technical and programmatic expertise with Inspiration Mars, but is unable to commit to sharing expenses with them.

Did Tito actually believe that NASA was going to invest $700 million to the project in a time of austerity? :/

NASA doesn't make those decisions, Congress does. Tito was speaking to a Congressional Sub Committee, so he was trying to sell his idea to them. They would be easier to sway than NASA management. I agree with you that there is not much chance of that happening. We'll be lucky if Congress doesn't cancel some of NASA's programs to save money.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JasonAW3 on 11/22/2013 05:24 pm
I'm a fan of stretching the unicorn analogy. But my comment was more along the lines of pointing out that the commenter was proposing stringing together a whole bunch of things that don't currently exist (Dragon Rider, Sundancer, custom stage, Falcon Heavy) to pull off a mission that has never been done before. And to do it in less than four years.


Hmmm...

     Sorry to disagree with you here.
     Falcon Heavy - Exists.  To be launched either later this year or early next year.
     Dragon Rider - Exists.  Currently undergoing testing and to begin pad and arial abort tests next year.
     Sundancer - First model has yet to fly as there have been delays in finding launch vehicle to launch test article.  Earlier Genisis 1 and 2 models complete success and still orbiting.
     Custom stage- Not really needed as there a large number of similar stages that could, in theory, be adapted for the purpose of this mission.

     The only real constraint is the timing and money.  As SpaceX is expecting first ISS manned flights to begin in 2017, this would put it out of the flight profile.  However; as has been stated before, the certification process could be signifcantly sped up, (As was proposed after the Shuttles were taken offline)  as could the testing on other needed components.

     In theory, a manned Mars LANDING would be possible by 2016, except for the development of the habitat modules and the landers themselves.  Due to radiation issues and microgravity physiological issues, such a mission would have to wait until a faster means of propulsion is available.

Jason
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: darkbluenine on 11/22/2013 05:31 pm
But my comment was more along the lines of pointing out that the commenter was proposing stringing together a whole bunch of things that don't currently exist (Dragon Rider, Sundancer, custom stage, Falcon Heavy) to pull off a mission that has never been done before. And to do it in less than four years.

Not much different from stringing together a new upper stage for an HLV that's never flown before, a higher temperature heat shield for a crew capsule that's already 5K in the mass hole for its parachutes, and ISS ECLSS in a cargo container that was never designed for it -- and putting all that hardware on the first launch of that HLV -- to pull off a mission that's never been done before in less than four years.  Oh, and expect the federal government to pay for at least 7/10ths of it when Congress can't even agree to continuing resolutions.

The other poster's proposal isn't any more ludicrous than what's in Tito's testimony.  It's all unicorns with this schedule and lack of proven hardware and budget.  Might as well propose anti-gravity flying saucers while we're at it.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 11/22/2013 05:35 pm
The other poster's proposal isn't any more ludicrous than what's in Tito's testimony.  It's all unicorns with this schedule and lack of proven hardware and budget.  Might as well propose anti-gravity flying saucers while we're at it.

Well, yeah. But I never said that Tito's proposal was any more realistic than this other guy's idea. Although, to be fair, Tito did at least have some smart people working for him. So I would defer to him before I'd defer to random anonymous people posting their neat ideas on the internet.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 11/22/2013 05:36 pm
I'm a fan of stretching the unicorn analogy. But my comment was more along the lines of pointing out that the commenter was proposing stringing together a whole bunch of things that don't currently exist (Dragon Rider, Sundancer, custom stage, Falcon Heavy) to pull off a mission that has never been done before. And to do it in less than four years.


Hmmm...

     Sorry to disagree with you here.
     Falcon Heavy - Exists.  To be launched either later this year or early next year.
     Dragon Rider - Exists.  Currently undergoing testing and to begin pad and arial abort tests next year.
     Sundancer - First model has yet to fly as there have been delays in finding launch vehicle to launch test article.  Earlier Genisis 1 and 2 models complete success and still orbiting.
     Custom stage- Not really needed as there a large number of similar stages that could, in theory, be adapted for the purpose of this mission.

Falcon heavy isn't planned before late 2014 and will most likely slip to 2015. No hardware for the rocket is currently being built, it's about as existing as the dead fairy in my closet. Dragon rider does not exist yet either. Sundancer is both canceled and far too heavy to be sent out together with Dragon, that would be about 17 tons total, Falcon Heavy probably can't even get 10 tons to the trajectory required. Genesis 1 and 2 provide less habitable volume than Cygnus, and there is no reason to use them over Cygnus, except for a slightly lower mass; an advantage so watered down by Dragon's mass and Falcon's meager TMI capacity that it doesn't really matter.

The only stage that could potentially hold sufficient fuel would be the 5m DCSS; there is no way as of yet to get it fully fueled into orbit, except maybe by modifying the FH launch pad. And it would likely still be too little. Add in the additional insulation/shielding to prevent all of the fuel from boiling off in a few hours, and you will quickly come to the conclusion that it is not possible with existing stages. The Free return trajectory picked by IM requires 5 km/s of delta V, DCSS would give a 16 ton payload of sundancer+dragon about 3.9 km/s.

And as Blackstar has said, an unproven chunk of metal sitting on the ground is not what you want to use to send 2 people to Mars for 500 days.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: darkbluenine on 11/22/2013 05:38 pm
[NASA doesn't make those decisions, Congress does. Tito was speaking to a Congressional Sub Committee, so he was trying to sell his idea to them. They would be easier to sway than NASA management.

Doesn't matter.  The White House has to propose or at least agree to the appropriations, and they're not supportive according to NASAWatch:

Quote
Administration sources add that it would be incorrect to state that Administration supports the Inspiration Mars mission as a "NASA mission" requiring NASA funds or hardware.

http://nasawatch.com/archives/2013/11/is-inspiration.html

Tito & Co. need to reset for the 2021 opportunity.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 11/22/2013 05:39 pm
If you're going to design a space mission that is really risky, with a short turnaround time, and you're going to use off-the-shelf hardware, then you better have high confidence in that hardware. You better be able to say that it's going to work, with high reliability.

Not unicorns.

If you go with that premise the mission is dead as there is no hardware that could do it. The proposed SpaceX and Bigelow modules are far ahead of anything else that could possibly do it. What would be missing is a booster stage.

At least two of the proposed components of the new mission plan are not even in development at this time. That is the DUUS and that "Orion" return module. The "Orion" does not even exist as a Power Point object outside of what Inspiration Mars has presented.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 11/22/2013 05:40 pm

Tito & Co. need to reset for the 2021 opportunity.

Is that opportunity described anywhere? I missed the details mentioned in the hearing.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 11/22/2013 05:45 pm
If you go with that premise the mission is dead as there is no hardware that could do it. The proposed SpaceX and Bigelow modules are far ahead of anything else that could possibly do it. What would be missing is a booster stage.
Soyuz and Cygnus. Soyuz has proven itself, Cygnus will likely have proven itself within a few years before Dragonrider will even be flying. All that would be needed is a thicker heatshield. Booster stage could be a series of two or three Briz-M or Block D stages stacked behind each other. Some development will be needed, but at least there's some track record to back up those parts.

Oh right, a mission "for America".
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: darkbluenine on 11/22/2013 05:53 pm
Although, to be fair, Tito did at least have some smart people working for him. So I would defer to him before I'd defer to random anonymous people posting their neat ideas on the internet.

No offense, but appeal to authority...?  Bleah.  That got us Ares I and Orion last time around.  Stick with critical thinking and attention to details.  There are some posters with innovative ideas that exhibit those qualities.

Is that opportunity described anywhere? I missed the details mentioned in the hearing.

Here's the elevator version from Space News:

Quote
With this uncertainty in mind, Tito and his colleagues are mapping out a contingency plan to get off the ground in late 2021. A mission launched in that year would feature a Venus flyby as well as a close look at Mars, though it would require 80 additional days in space, Tito said.

“I think this mission is going to fly one way or another by, at the latest, 2021,” he said.

http://www.spacenews.com/article/civil-space/38286clock-ticking-for-2018-private-manned-mars-mission

I'm not finding the longer explanation in Tito's original paper or on the Inspiration Mars website, but I've only been looking a couple minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: cryptoanarchy on 11/22/2013 05:59 pm
Only way I can see to do this in reality is to use Dragon Rider and a Bigelow Sundancer propelled by a custom stage launched on two or three falcon heavies.  Additional propellent would need to be used to slow down for Earth re-entry so that the Dragon could be used as-is.   

You forgot the unicorn.

The unicorn would require it's own Bigelow Sundancer, maybe we can do this on the second mission?

The point is simply this, Bigelow and SpaceX could do this in the time window provided if they started now.  It have more faith in SpaceX doing a brand new TMI stage in four years then I have in NASA/Boeing getting the DUUS done in the same time.  The Falcon Heavy is almost ready now, along with the Sundancer.  Would things need to be integrated?  Sure.  Would it be hard?  Yes.  But it is all quite possible.  Without the unicorn at least.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: cryptoanarchy on 11/22/2013 06:04 pm
I'm a fan of stretching the unicorn analogy. But my comment was more along the lines of pointing out that the commenter was proposing stringing together a whole bunch of things that don't currently exist (Dragon Rider, Sundancer, custom stage, Falcon Heavy) to pull off a mission that has never been done before. And to do it in less than four years.

I'm planning a trip across the country, leaving tomorrow!
So, do you have a car?
No, but I'm going to _build_ one. By tomorrow.

Except you are not leaving tomorrow, you are leaving in 2018.  And the car is a 2015 model that is mostly done.  The only thing that is truly new and not started would be the TMI stage, and that is if Elon has not been working on one in secret. 

This would be hard, lots of things to integrate and finish but possible.  Both SpaceX and Bigelow would gain valuable experience.  They could even do a test trip around the moon first before hand if they were hyper ambitious. 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: catiare on 11/22/2013 06:23 pm
You forgot the unicorn.
The multiple launches would make this too complex and further development would be required. Sorry to beat a dead horse but Robert Zubrin suggested a mission to land on Mars with a Dragon. I'm not saying that is the best design for that mission but if on his calculations, a Dragon Capsule could land on Mars, could it perform this mission as well?
 
http://www.marssociety.org/home/press/news/theuseofspacexhardwaretoaccomplishnear-termhumanmarsmission

"...The SpaceX Falcon Heavy will have a launch capacity of 53 metric tons to low Earth orbit. This means that if a conventional hydrogen-oxygen chemical rocket upper stage were added, it could have the capability of sending about 17.5 tons on a trajectory to Mars..."

And there you have your unicorn: "a conventional hydrogen-oxygen chemical rocket upper stage".  Developing a hydrogen upper stage for Falcon Heavy would be very expensive -- probably much more than developing Falcon 9 from scratch cost in the first place.  IIRC, even Musk has mentioned figures above $1 billion to develop a hydrogen upper stage for Falcon.

Also, there's no way such a hydrogen stage would be ready by the IM launch window.


Understood. If we take that upper stage out the equation for the reasons you stated, the max payload comes down to no more than 13.2 Tons as per wikipedia. Zubrin's mission was to land on Mars and stay for longer than the IM mission. Assuming the mission can be launched under 13.2 tons; do we have any other Unicorn in the architecture?

Again just to clarify: no Bigelow, just Dragon and Falcon Heavy directly to Mars under 13 Tons.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 11/22/2013 06:28 pm
Understood. If we take that upper stage out the equation for the reasons you stated, the max payload comes down to no more than 13.2 Tons as per wikipedia. Zubrin's mission was to land on Mars and stay for longer than the IM mission. Assuming the mission can be launched under 13.2 tons; do we have any other Unicorn in the architecture?

Again just to clarify: no Bigelow, just Dragon and Falcon Heavy directly to Mars under 13 Tons.


Far less than 13.2 tons. Probably about 8-10 tons. A free return trajectory requires a much bigger C3 than a normal transfer.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 11/22/2013 06:37 pm
Understood. If we take that upper stage out the equation for the reasons you stated, the max payload comes down to no more than 13.2 Tons as per wikipedia. Zubrin's mission was to land on Mars and stay for longer than the IM mission. Assuming the mission can be launched under 13.2 tons; do we have any other Unicorn in the architecture?

Again just to clarify: no Bigelow, just Dragon and Falcon Heavy directly to Mars under 13 Tons.


Far less than 13.2 tons. Probably about 8-10 tons. A free return trajectory requires a much bigger C3 than a normal transfer.

So Titos Team miscalculated, when they stated Falcon Heavy can insert 13 tons into their trajectory? Also an additional habitat module was always part of the mission. It is impossible to store all consumables in Dragon.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 11/22/2013 06:38 pm
Understood. If we take that upper stage out the equation for the reasons you stated, the max payload comes down to no more than 13.2 Tons as per wikipedia. Zubrin's mission was to land on Mars and stay for longer than the IM mission. Assuming the mission can be launched under 13.2 tons; do we have any other Unicorn in the architecture?

Again just to clarify: no Bigelow, just Dragon and Falcon Heavy directly to Mars under 13 Tons.


Far less than 13.2 tons. Probably about 8-10 tons. A free return trajectory requires a much bigger C3 than a normal transfer.

So Titos Team miscalculated, when they stated Falcon Heavy can insert 13 tons into their trajectory? Also an additional habitat module was always part of the mission. It is impossible to store all consumables in Dragon.
Where did they state that?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: catiare on 11/22/2013 06:49 pm
Understood. If we take that upper stage out the equation for the reasons you stated, the max payload comes down to no more than 13.2 Tons as per wikipedia. Zubrin's mission was to land on Mars and stay for longer than the IM mission. Assuming the mission can be launched under 13.2 tons; do we have any other Unicorn in the architecture?

Again just to clarify: no Bigelow, just Dragon and Falcon Heavy directly to Mars under 13 Tons.


Far less than 13.2 tons. Probably about 8-10 tons. A free return trajectory requires a much bigger C3 than a normal transfer.

So Titos Team miscalculated, when they stated Falcon Heavy can insert 13 tons into their trajectory? Also an additional habitat module was always part of the mission. It is impossible to store all consumables in Dragon.
Where did they state that?
My Bad. I thought free return trajectory to mars had the same mass requirements as going to Mars.  I got the 13.2 from wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy#cite_note-sxfh201308002-5
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Garrett on 11/22/2013 07:00 pm
Although, to be fair, Tito did at least have some smart people working for him. So I would defer to him before I'd defer to random anonymous people posting their neat ideas on the internet.

No offense, but appeal to authority...?  Bleah.  That got us Ares I and Orion last time around.  Stick with critical thinking and attention to details.  There are some posters with innovative ideas that exhibit those qualities.

I'm not a doctor, but I slept in a Holiday Inn Express last night. Now I'm going to replace those valves on your heart...

Don't take this off into Silly Land. Anonymous people posting on the internet are not more credible than those who actually work in the business and have built stuff or flown things. And we don't need innovative ideas. We need stuff that works.
Well said.
There's a difference between appealing to authority and appealing to expertise.

Also, the folks who design Ares I and Orion know an innovative idea when they see one. They also know that they are bound by the decisions made in congress. They make the hard choices and compromises that so many people on this forum are quick to blame them for.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 11/22/2013 07:17 pm

So Titos Team miscalculated, when they stated Falcon Heavy can insert 13 tons into their trajectory? Also an additional habitat module was always part of the mission. It is impossible to store all consumables in Dragon.
Where did they state that?

It was the mission plan they published after their first press conference. It is somewhere way up in this thread.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lars_J on 11/22/2013 08:46 pm

I'm a fan of stretching the unicorn analogy. But my comment was more along the lines of pointing out that the commenter was proposing stringing together a whole bunch of things that don't currently exist (Dragon Rider, Sundancer, custom stage, Falcon Heavy) to pull off a mission that has never been done before. And to do it in less than four years.

While neither FH nor crew Dragon exists now, FH should fly before SLS, and a crewed Dragon should fly before a crewed Orion.

Or was your point that both approaches are equally unrealistic using non-existing hardware?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: darkbluenine on 11/22/2013 09:36 pm
Anonymous people posting on the internet are not more credible than those who actually work in the business

Sometimes they are one and the same person.  Industry participation is one of the main points of this forum, after all.

If we're going to discount the thoughts and opinions of the anonymous posters we read, then there's no point in participating here.  (Other than to hear ourselves talk.)

Quote
and have built stuff or flown things.

This was the problem with Ares I and Orion at the top levels.  An administrator with six-odd degrees but whose actual development experience was limited to a smallsat or two setting key requirements in the absence of any trades for a multi-decade, multi-ten billion dollar program.  And astronauts with no development experience and obvious conflicts of interest setting rocket designs and managing technology programs.

[Not that the Senate setting launch system and crew capsule requirements or our current astronaut administrator are any better.]

The devil is in the details.  Titles, experience and authority aren't all they're cracked up to be if the managers in question lack the right expertise or relevant experience or can't contain their biases.  I can think of several posters here who wouldn't have bought into a LV that would have required complete changes to the propulsion in both stages less than a year into its development.

Quote
And we don't need innovative ideas. We need stuff that works.

We need both, especially in the foreseeable budget environment.

Quote
I'm not a doctor, but I slept in a Holiday Inn Express last night. Now I'm going to replace those valves on your heart...

Don't take this off into Silly Land.

I think we're already there if we're relying on irrelevant and crude analogies to make our case.

They also know that they are bound by the decisions made in congress.

You're conflating SLS/MPCV with Ares I/Orion.  The former is bound by the 2010 NASA Authorization Act.  The latter wasn't.  The managers for the latter had a clean slate, by comparison.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Star One on 11/22/2013 09:46 pm
Quote
So much for being space cowboys. Dennis Tito, the multi-millionaire behind what was to be the first privately funded mission to Mars, has just knocked on NASA's door asking for help. The development is a wake-up call to the most idealistic dreamers of the private spaceflight industry.

"They can't do it all by themselves, particularly this kind of ambitious mission," says John Logsdon, formerly of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University in Washington DC. "It's a recognition of reality."

Tito's not-for-profit mission, called Inspiration Mars, was initially supposed to use entirely private or commercial vehicles to launch a pair of astronauts into Earth orbit in early 2018. The crew would take advantage of the planets' fortuitously close orbits at that time to take a 501-day journey around Mars and back home, without landing on the Red Planet's surface.

But a new architecture study report released on 20 November concluded that the plan could not work without NASA's Space Launch System (SLS), a heavy lift vehicle that is still in development but should be ready to take humans into space by 2021.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24633#.Uo_eCIMgGSM
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: catiare on 11/22/2013 10:22 pm
Far less than 13.2 tons. Probably about 8-10 tons. A free return trajectory requires a much bigger C3 than a normal transfer.

I guess, the "hydrogen-oxygen chemical rocket upper stage" unicorn is needed after all.

It's hard to see how a new $1B FH cryo upper stage by 2017 is a substantially different unicorn from a new $700M SLS cryo upper stage by 2017.  The problem isn't the choice of hardware.  It's the lack of hardware and budget for the given timeframe.  The mission itself is a unicorn.

There is an older post about an upper stage being developed by SpaceX:

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=22601.0

Could this be the missing Unicorn on the bare bones mission?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 11/22/2013 11:35 pm
There is an older post about an upper stage being developed by SpaceX:

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=22601.0

Could this be the missing Unicorn on the bare bones mission?

Perhaps.  The general consensus is that SpaceX's plans now are for a new methane upper stage.  That will be a big improvement in beyond-LEO performance, though not as much as a hydrogen stage would be expected to give.

SpaceX hasn't given much information about the new upper stage.  We can just speculate about its performance and the schedule.  They have made arrangements with NASA to use a test stand (in the first half of next year, IIRC) to test a big new engine, which is generally believed to be Raptor, the methane engine that will power the new upper stage.  IIRC, it's believed to be a 400 klbf-class engine.

So, SpaceX might surprise us with a new upper stage that will be ready in time for IM.  Or they might not.  We don't really know.  The new upper stage won't be as well tested as the current F9 upper stage by the 2017 timeframe, so it would be much riskier way to launch crew than a standard F9, even if it does turn out to be available then.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 11/23/2013 12:12 am
I'm a fan of stretching the unicorn analogy. But my comment was more along the lines of pointing out that the commenter was proposing stringing together a whole bunch of things that don't currently exist (Dragon Rider, Sundancer, custom stage, Falcon Heavy) to pull off a mission that has never been done before. And to do it in less than four years.


Hmmm...

     Sorry to disagree with you here.
     Falcon Heavy - Exists.  To be launched either later this year or early next year.
     Dragon Rider - Exists.  Currently undergoing testing and to begin pad and arial abort tests next year.
     Sundancer - First model has yet to fly as there have been delays in finding launch vehicle to launch test article.  Earlier Genisis 1 and 2 models complete success and still orbiting.
     Custom stage- Not really needed as there a large number of similar stages that could, in theory, be adapted for the purpose of this mission.

     The only real constraint is the timing and money.  As SpaceX is expecting first ISS manned flights to begin in 2017, this would put it out of the flight profile.  However; as has been stated before, the certification process could be signifcantly sped up, (As was proposed after the Shuttles were taken offline)  as could the testing on other needed components.

     In theory, a manned Mars LANDING would be possible by 2016, except for the development of the habitat modules and the landers themselves.  Due to radiation issues and microgravity physiological issues, such a mission would have to wait until a faster means of propulsion is available.

Jason


-You think Falcon Heavy is going to launch this year? Better tell SpaceX. They've said hardware won't begin arriving at VAFB until Q2 2014. That's optimistic with the slips already to the F9.

-If by exists you mean there is a pressure vessel for a boilerplate pad and AA test then sure, Dragon Rider exists. I wouldn't want to take a ride in it any time soon.

-Sundancer isn't delayed, it was cancelled years ago and the BA330 took it's place.

-There are no existing or proposed upper stages besides the DUUS that can provide enough velocity to move a stack the size of the proposed IM spacecraft on a TMI.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 11/23/2013 12:27 am
-There are no existing or proposed upper stages besides the DUUS that can provide enough velocity to move a stack the size of the proposed IM spacecraft on a TMI.

The current flying Centaur-3 configuration can throw 13 tons on Tito's proposed trajectory. That's adequate for what was originally proposed, but now it seems he's got his heart set on a free lunch ride.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 11/23/2013 01:12 am
...In which case, the 2018 mission is doomed and the 2021 version is far away enough that 'anything can happen' :(  This is starting to more resemble an 'Emporer's new clothes' vaporware scenario :( :'(
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: deltaV on 11/23/2013 08:51 pm
-There are no existing or proposed upper stages besides the DUUS that can provide enough velocity to move a stack the size of the proposed IM spacecraft on a TMI.

1. The Falcon Heavy upper stage has adequate performance to send 22 tonnes to C3=41 km^2/s^2 if it starts in LEO fully fueled (according to my calculations). Too bad we don't have on-orbit LOX transfer tech.

2. Who says the Earth departure stage has to be a single stage? Two Delta 4m upper stages have enough delta-vee to send 18 tonnes to C3=41 km^2/s^2. Those two could be launched by a single Falcon Heavy already integrated with each other. (Dual engine Centaurs may be better to maximize Obereth effect but I don't have Centaur numbers handy.)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: sdsds on 11/23/2013 09:35 pm
2. Who says the Earth departure stage has to be a single stage? Two Delta 4m upper stages have enough delta-vee to send 18 tonnes to C3=41 km^2/s^2.

I think this is a key observation. TMI (or TLI for that matter) requires enough delta-v that staging can make a major difference.

Quote
Those two could be launched by a single Falcon Heavy already integrated with each other.

Too bad there's no way to load them with propellants at a FH pad....
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 11/23/2013 10:03 pm
2. Who says the Earth departure stage has to be a single stage? Two Delta 4m upper stages have enough delta-vee to send 18 tonnes to C3=41 km^2/s^2. Those two could be launched by a single Falcon Heavy already integrated with each other. (Dual engine Centaurs may be better to maximize Obereth effect but I don't have Centaur numbers handy.)
Are you sure SpaceX wants to make modifications to the launch pad to support two additional oxygen feedline, and two new hydrogen feedlines, for this one mission? What would these mods cost? Would two Centaurs or DCSSs even fit in the fairing? They're very tall stages.

If we launch them seperately, they will likely have to stay in orbit for about a month. Do we have the shielding to make Centaur/DCSS storable for long enough? Not that I'm aware of. There's all kinds of nice paper ideas on how to do this, but I doubt 4 years is enough time to develop it, test it, and prove it.

There are plenty of storable upper stages that would circumvent these problems and would only need a small power supply to last in space for months. Wonder why those aren't considered, no shielding or prop transfer required.

Oh right, a mission "for America."
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: sdsds on 11/23/2013 10:19 pm
There are plenty of storable upper stages that would circumvent these problems and would only need a small power supply to last in space for months. Wonder why those aren't considered, no shielding or prop transfer required.

Oh right, a mission "for America."

NASA has quite a bit of recent experience with high thrust storable propellant in-space propulsion for human spaceflight missions. I refer of course to the STS OMS engines. And it isn't like the tanks, valves, feed lines and other ancillary parts of a hypergolic propulsion system would require much research or development! That's all "TRL 9", right?

So then we need to ask ourselves, "Why has the United States virtually abandoned high thrust storable propellant propulsion?" I believe the answers have as much or more to do with sociology than technology....
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: MATTBLAK on 11/24/2013 06:29 am
A pair of the Shuttle's OMS type engines - AJ-110 family - should be able to push a craft only a fraction of the mass of an Orbiter to a Trans-Mars Injection. A quartet of them; easily so. Anyone care to 'back-of-the-envelope' design a storable fuel stage, using existing tooling, with x-times a quantity of hypergolic propellant, powered by a pair or quartet of AJ-110's? Or a single LR-91 from the Titan family? With a stage like this waiting in LEO for the rest of the mission stack; there would be no particular hurry to get all the launches done in a tight time frame.

And it's a pity the Antares 130's Castor 30XL upper stages are so darned heavy - doing a 'rocket lego' inline train of two or three of those stages would push a decent payload to TMI.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: geza on 11/24/2013 12:31 pm
There is another potential reason why NASA may decline to accept IM as its own mission: it is very dangerous. If it were a NASA mission, then US Government would assume a moral responsibility.  If it were a NASA mission, then NASA would want several precursor missions, an unmanned reentry test with the Reentry Pod would be the absolute minimum. Probably they would prescribe more redundancy for the life support, require larger habitable volume, etc. Clearly, these additional requirements would make the project even less feasible within the planned time-frame and budget. 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: deltaV on 11/24/2013 03:25 pm
There are plenty of storable upper stages that would circumvent these problems and would only need a small power supply to last in space for months. Wonder why those aren't considered, no shielding or prop transfer required.

Oh right, a mission "for America."

At an ISP of 316 s (Shuttle OMS according to wikip) and 95% PMF, a 94 tonne wet hypergolic stage can send 18 tonnes to C3=41 km/s. An alternative is two identical 43 tonne hypergolic stages, which has the advantage of being launchable on Falcon Heavies. Obvious engines include the AJ10-118K (Delta II heritage) and the SuperDraco.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 11/24/2013 05:40 pm
Quote
So much for being space cowboys. Dennis Tito, the multi-millionaire behind what was to be the first privately funded mission to Mars, has just knocked on NASA's door asking for help. The development is a wake-up call to the most idealistic dreamers of the private spaceflight industry.

"They can't do it all by themselves, particularly this kind of ambitious mission," says John Logsdon, formerly of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University in Washington DC. "It's a recognition of reality."

Tito's not-for-profit mission, called Inspiration Mars, was initially supposed to use entirely private or commercial vehicles to launch a pair of astronauts into Earth orbit in early 2018. The crew would take advantage of the planets' fortuitously close orbits at that time to take a 501-day journey around Mars and back home, without landing on the Red Planet's surface.

But a new architecture study report released on 20 November concluded that the plan could not work without NASA's Space Launch System (SLS), a heavy lift vehicle that is still in development but should be ready to take humans into space by 2021.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24633#.Uo_eCIMgGSM
Seems that analysis is a bit flawed. SLS is not necessarily required. What's required is money and perhaps Tito found that he couldn't raise as much as he thought.  The calculus probably then led to "if we are going to ask NASA to chip in to this, we probably ought not to ask for Falcon Heavy funding, but instead ask for SLS as that may be politically more viable even if more expensive"
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: gbaikie on 11/24/2013 06:06 pm
Quote
So much for being space cowboys. Dennis Tito, the multi-millionaire behind what was to be the first privately funded mission to Mars, has just knocked on NASA's door asking for help. The development is a wake-up call to the most idealistic dreamers of the private spaceflight industry.

"They can't do it all by themselves, particularly this kind of ambitious mission," says John Logsdon, formerly of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University in Washington DC. "It's a recognition of reality."

Tito's not-for-profit mission, called Inspiration Mars, was initially supposed to use entirely private or commercial vehicles to launch a pair of astronauts into Earth orbit in early 2018. The crew would take advantage of the planets' fortuitously close orbits at that time to take a 501-day journey around Mars and back home, without landing on the Red Planet's surface.

But a new architecture study report released on 20 November concluded that the plan could not work without NASA's Space Launch System (SLS), a heavy lift vehicle that is still in development but should be ready to take humans into space by 2021.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24633#.Uo_eCIMgGSM
Seems that analysis is a bit flawed. SLS is not necessarily required. What's required is money and perhaps Tito found that he couldn't raise as much as he thought.  The calculus probably then led to "if we are going to ask NASA to chip in to this, we probably ought not to ask for Falcon Heavy funding, but instead ask for SLS as that may be politically more viable even if more expensive"
Probably.
But it seems one could view this as a dummy test payload for SLS. And as dummy test payload one should discount the price for the payload launch [as is done in regard to all dummy test payloads].
So by 2017 Heavy Falcon may have already flown some form of a dummy test payload- say cargo to ISS.
Or something else other than crew or an large and expensive satellite.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 11/25/2013 02:44 pm
So the takehome after reviewing the last few days of back and forth is that Tito is not going anywhere anytime soon?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 11/25/2013 02:58 pm
So the takehome after reviewing the last few days of back and forth is that Tito is not going anywhere anytime soon?
Pretty much.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: outward on 11/25/2013 03:54 pm
So the takehome after reviewing the last few days of back and forth is that Tito is not going anywhere anytime soon?

I agree. I wonder how long before Mr. Tito publicly announces the mission is cancelled? Sad to see this endeavor in such a weird state so soon after its February debut. 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 11/25/2013 04:30 pm
-There are no existing or proposed upper stages besides the DUUS that can provide enough velocity to move a stack the size of the proposed IM spacecraft on a TMI.

The current flying Centaur-3 configuration can throw 13 tons on Tito's proposed trajectory. That's adequate for what was originally proposed, but now it seems he's got his heart set on a free lunch ride.

What is a Centaur-3?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 11/25/2013 04:32 pm
There are plenty of storable upper stages that would circumvent these problems and would only need a small power supply to last in space for months. Wonder why those aren't considered, no shielding or prop transfer required.

Oh right, a mission "for America."

At an ISP of 316 s (Shuttle OMS according to wikip) and 95% PMF, a 94 tonne wet hypergolic stage can send 18 tonnes to C3=41 km/s. An alternative is two identical 43 tonne hypergolic stages, which has the advantage of being launchable on Falcon Heavies. Obvious engines include the AJ10-118K (Delta II heritage) and the SuperDraco.

Now you're up to 4 launches...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 11/25/2013 04:37 pm
So the takehome after reviewing the last few days of back and forth is that Tito is not going anywhere anytime soon?

I agree. I wonder how long before Mr. Tito publicly announces the mission is cancelled? Sad to see this endeavor in such a weird state so soon after its February debut.
He could just delay it to 2021 and use cheaper, commercial LVs rather than SLS. SLS was chosen to avoid the time needed to develop stuff like prop transfer and cryo storage. Extra time will make SLS less necessary.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 11/25/2013 04:46 pm
There are plenty of storable upper stages that would circumvent these problems and would only need a small power supply to last in space for months. Wonder why those aren't considered, no shielding or prop transfer required.

Oh right, a mission "for America."

At an ISP of 316 s (Shuttle OMS according to wikip) and 95% PMF, a 94 tonne wet hypergolic stage can send 18 tonnes to C3=41 km/s. An alternative is two identical 43 tonne hypergolic stages, which has the advantage of being launchable on Falcon Heavies. Obvious engines include the AJ10-118K (Delta II heritage) and the SuperDraco.

Now you're up to 4 launches...
Spacecraft+Stage1+Stage2=4 launches?

Although, even four launches would be better than nothing, and fiddling with SLS or cryogenic in-space stages and propellant transfer will likely end you up with 0 launches in such short time span.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Zed_Noir on 11/25/2013 05:15 pm
Wonder if someone might launch a free return mission during the 2018 window?  ;) More of an unmanned technology demonstrator precursor flight to test out spacecraft durability, endurance & Earth re-entry.

Of course there is only one candidate entity that I can think of.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 11/25/2013 05:19 pm
There's something like 10-12 launches to ISS every year. Two or three launches shouldn't be considered insane.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 11/25/2013 05:30 pm
He could just delay it to 2021 and use cheaper, commercial LVs rather than SLS. SLS was chosen to avoid the time needed to develop stuff like prop transfer and cryo storage. Extra time will make SLS less necessary.

In 2021 SpaceX may be already in an advanced stage of planning their own manned landing. That would make Inspiration Mars look quite uninspirational.

OK, I know, VERY ambitious to expect SpaceX to be at that stage at that time. ;)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 11/25/2013 05:39 pm
Wonder if someone might launch a free return mission during the 2018 window?  ;) More of an unmanned technology demonstrator precursor flight to test out spacecraft durability, endurance & Earth re-entry.

Of course there is only one candidate entity that I can think of.
Maybe send a Cygnus there, stuffed with radiation sensors to see the effect of cosmic radiation on the inside of a habitable module.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 11/25/2013 07:36 pm
There is another potential reason why NASA may decline to accept IM as its own mission: it is very dangerous. If it were a NASA mission, then US Government would assume a moral responsibility.  If it were a NASA mission, then NASA would want several precursor missions, an unmanned reentry test with the Reentry Pod would be the absolute minimum. Probably they would prescribe more redundancy for the life support, require larger habitable volume, etc. Clearly, these additional requirements would make the project even less feasible within the planned time-frame and budget. 

Exactly. And this reminds me of the Beagle 2 mission. Beagle 2 started out as a standalone mission. But Colin Pillinger couldn't raise enough money for it on his own, and also couldn't find his own trip to Mars. So he hitched it up to Mars Express and ultimately got government funding for it. But that created a contradiction: if the mission was successful, Pillinger was going to take all the credit, but if it failed, ESA would get stuck with at least some of the blame. And of course it failed (and Pillinger blamed Mars' atmosphere, which was not the cause of the failure).

And that's the dilemma NASA would face in all of this--why should the space agency put in its money, expertise, and reputation, unless it is also running the mission? And if it is running the mission, the agency is going to get very worried about the risk, because everybody knows that it will be identified as a "NASA mission."
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 11/25/2013 07:46 pm

In 2021 SpaceX may be already in an advanced stage of planning their own manned landing. That would make Inspiration Mars look quite uninspirational.

OK, I know, VERY ambitious to expect SpaceX to be at that stage at that time. ;)
You have to be a very big optimist to think that SpaceX will be far enough by then to make humans by Mars look unimpressive. They'd pretty much have to land on Mars by then to make IM look dull.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Zed_Noir on 11/25/2013 08:49 pm
Wonder if someone might launch a free return mission during the 2018 window?  ;) More of an unmanned technology demonstrator precursor flight to test out spacecraft durability, endurance & Earth re-entry.

Of course there is only one candidate entity that I can think of.
Maybe send a Cygnus there, stuffed with radiation sensors to see the effect of cosmic radiation on the inside of a habitable module.

FYI the Cygnus PCM can be carry by the candidate entity along to Mars.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 11/26/2013 01:30 pm
There are plenty of storable upper stages that would circumvent these problems and would only need a small power supply to last in space for months. Wonder why those aren't considered, no shielding or prop transfer required.

Oh right, a mission "for America."

At an ISP of 316 s (Shuttle OMS according to wikip) and 95% PMF, a 94 tonne wet hypergolic stage can send 18 tonnes to C3=41 km/s. An alternative is two identical 43 tonne hypergolic stages, which has the advantage of being launchable on Falcon Heavies. Obvious engines include the AJ10-118K (Delta II heritage) and the SuperDraco.

Now you're up to 4 launches...
Spacecraft+Stage1+Stage2=4 launches?

Although, even four launches would be better than nothing, and fiddling with SLS or cryogenic in-space stages and propellant transfer will likely end you up with 0 launches in such short time span.

Crew module, Hab module, 2 in space stages.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: deltaV on 11/26/2013 02:24 pm
Crew module, Hab module, 2 in space stages.

The crew module and hab module have a combined mass of 13 tonnes plus margin IIRC. They could be launched together by either an Atlas 551 or Falcon Heavy. Why are you assuming two separate launches?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 11/26/2013 02:42 pm
Crew module, Hab module, 2 in space stages.

The crew module and hab module have a combined mass of 13 tonnes plus margin IIRC. They could be launched together by either an Atlas 551 or Falcon Heavy. Why are you assuming two separate launches?
The return capsule proposed is an "Orion" for which no functional LAS will be ready before 2018. It will be necessary to use a Com Crew spacecraft to get the crew up there, unless they switch to Dragon after all.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 11/26/2013 07:19 pm
Crew module, Hab module, 2 in space stages.

The crew module and hab module have a combined mass of 13 tonnes plus margin IIRC. They could be launched together by either an Atlas 551 or Falcon Heavy. Why are you assuming two separate launches?

Which crew module are you talking about? The Commercial Crew vehicle they are going up in or the re-entry (Orion derivative)? If you're talking the CC CSM, are you proposing an adapter be developed for FH or D-IVH with the hab below the CSM? That's the only way you could get it down to 3, but whatever crew vehicle you go up in would also need to be used for re-entry. If you use the separate re-entry module you're at 4 launches.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KSC Sage on 11/26/2013 08:22 pm
Crew module, Hab module, 2 in space stages.

The crew module and hab module have a combined mass of 13 tonnes plus margin IIRC. They could be launched together by either an Atlas 551 or Falcon Heavy. Why are you assuming two separate launches?
The return capsule proposed is an "Orion" for which no functional LAS will be ready before 2018. It will be necessary to use a Com Crew spacecraft to get the crew up there, unless they switch to Dragon after all.

It's a scaled down Orion OML.  Diameter of 3.8m.  It would be a new capsule design, not the LM Orion.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 11/27/2013 01:36 am
Crew module, Hab module, 2 in space stages.

The crew module and hab module have a combined mass of 13 tonnes plus margin IIRC. They could be launched together by either an Atlas 551 or Falcon Heavy. Why are you assuming two separate launches?
The return capsule proposed is an "Orion" for which no functional LAS will be ready before 2018. It will be necessary to use a Com Crew spacecraft to get the crew up there, unless they switch to Dragon after all.

It's a scaled down Orion OML.  Diameter of 3.8m.  It would be a new capsule design, not the LM Orion.

Am I the only one who's thinking they're really out of touch with reality to be proposing a new capsule design for a deep space mission in 2017?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 11/27/2013 03:23 am
Crew module, Hab module, 2 in space stages.

The crew module and hab module have a combined mass of 13 tonnes plus margin IIRC. They could be launched together by either an Atlas 551 or Falcon Heavy. Why are you assuming two separate launches?
The return capsule proposed is an "Orion" for which no functional LAS will be ready before 2018. It will be necessary to use a Com Crew spacecraft to get the crew up there, unless they switch to Dragon after all.

It's a scaled down Orion OML.  Diameter of 3.8m.  It would be a new capsule design, not the LM Orion.

Am I the only one who's thinking they're really out of touch with reality to be proposing a new capsule design for a deep space mission in 2017?
Not at all! I've been thinking that the whole time. And here they're worried about number of launches!
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Eric Hedman on 11/27/2013 03:48 am
Crew module, Hab module, 2 in space stages.

The crew module and hab module have a combined mass of 13 tonnes plus margin IIRC. They could be launched together by either an Atlas 551 or Falcon Heavy. Why are you assuming two separate launches?
The return capsule proposed is an "Orion" for which no functional LAS will be ready before 2018. It will be necessary to use a Com Crew spacecraft to get the crew up there, unless they switch to Dragon after all.

It's a scaled down Orion OML.  Diameter of 3.8m.  It would be a new capsule design, not the LM Orion.

Am I the only one who's thinking they're really out of touch with reality to be proposing a new capsule design for a deep space mission in 2017?
Not at all! I've been thinking that the whole time. And here they're worried about number of launches!
You can add me to the list of people who think the same thing.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: RonM on 11/27/2013 04:09 am
While this has been interesting, going from PowerPoint to launch in less than five years was fantasy from day one.

If Tito had a billion dollars to drop on the table, maybe he could have lined up something. Then again, would NASA or any commercial concern want to be connected to a possible suicide mission?

I think it was a great idea, but it won't work under current conditions. If commercial crew had started a few years earlier and Bigelow was ready with a manned module, then they could have slapped something together in time. January 2018 is only a little over four years from now.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: antiquark on 11/27/2013 04:00 pm
Also, (and sorry if this was mentioned already), the IM mission is basically has no scientific research purpose. Other than, "can a marriage survive a trip to Mars?  :)"  So the lack of science in the mission would make it a no-go for NASA.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KSC Sage on 11/27/2013 04:43 pm
Also, (and sorry if this was mentioned already), the IM mission is basically has no scientific research purpose. Other than, "can a marriage survive a trip to Mars?  :)"  So the lack of science in the mission would make it a no-go for NASA.

In their full report they mention a number of possible science activities including: deploying penetrator probes to the surface during the fly by, taking upper atmosphere samples, hi-res photos and video, and not to mention all the deep space life science on the crew during the mission.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: GalacticIntruder on 11/27/2013 05:04 pm
I still think it is wrong to sell any human mission as a science mission. Most humans in America and the world are not interested and excited about some scientific pursuit or finding. It is hard for us geeks to understand that, but Elon gets it, Robert Zubrin gets it, Neil DeGrasse Tyson gets it. NASA and Congress don't get it.

Of course I guess one can make a pragmatic  stance to justify NASA getting involved by selling some science BS. NASA did just launch MAVEN, which was somehow spun as a stepping stone to humans-to-Mars mission.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KSC Sage on 11/27/2013 05:27 pm
It's a scaled down Orion OML.  Diameter of 3.8m.  It would be a new capsule design, not the LM Orion.

Am I the only one who's thinking they're really out of touch with reality to be proposing a new capsule design for a deep space mission in 2017?

Interesting that ESA designed, developed, built, and launched/landed successfully the Advanced Reentry Demonstrator (ARD) capsule - very similar in size and function to the IM Re-entry Pod in less than four years.  If the money were available, NASA saw no technical show stoppers.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: antiquark on 11/27/2013 05:28 pm
In their full report they mention a number of possible science activities including: deploying penetrator probes to the surface during the fly by, taking upper atmosphere samples, hi-res photos and video, and not to mention all the deep space life science on the crew during the mission.

Unfortunately I can't find the full report online (Tito says it can't be released due to export restrictions), but those things sound like Hail Mary passes thrown in at the last minute to give the project some extra traction. 

In particular, the atmospheric samples idea sounds like nonsense... the sample mass will be in the nano-grams range, because they'll be 100 miles up at the closest point. 

Also none of the vehicle diagrams show any penetrator probes, so yeah it sounds like a last minute thing.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 11/27/2013 11:02 pm
It's a scaled down Orion OML.  Diameter of 3.8m.  It would be a new capsule design, not the LM Orion.

Am I the only one who's thinking they're really out of touch with reality to be proposing a new capsule design for a deep space mission in 2017?

Interesting that ESA designed, developed, built, and launched/landed successfully the Advanced Reentry Demonstrator (ARD) capsule - very similar in size and function to the IM Re-entry Pod in less than four years.  If the money were available, NASA saw no technical show stoppers.

ARD was sub-orbital.  There's a big difference between suborbital and direct entry from the Mars free-return trajectory Tito is planning.  ARD also had no crew accommodations at all, let alone having people in them.  It also hadn't been exposed to space conditions for 501 days before the re-entry.

Dragon took 6 years from the start of development to first flight, and that was without a crew.  The first crewed flight is currently planned for 9 years after the start of development.  And that includes only LEO testing.

Orion has taken even longer, and cost much more.

With a really, really huge amount of cash, I do believe a crew capsule could be developed in 4 years that could be used.  But why?  By the time of the launch, Dragon will have had a lot of testing, very likely including with a crew.  With the huge amount of money a new capsule development would cost, you could take an off-the-shelf Dragon and also pay for an extra launch to get it into orbit.  And you'd have a lot of cash left over for other things, like developing the crew quarters, and testing the whole stack in LEO.

Anyway, Inspiration Mars doesn't have the kind of financing available for any of that.  The only way Inspiration Mars was ever going to work was if they could fit everything into a single Dragon and if Falcon Heavy could throw the Dragon and everything it needed to carry onto the required trajectory without any modifications.  Once it became clear that wasn't going to work, there was no way Inspiration Mars was going to make the 2017 window.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 11/27/2013 11:31 pm
Also, (and sorry if this was mentioned already), the IM mission is basically has no scientific research purpose. Other than, "can a marriage survive a trip to Mars?  :)"  So the lack of science in the mission would make it a no-go for NASA.

It doesn't need science. NASA has done human missions primarily for engineering development reasons, as well as politics. Science is the veneer that is slapped onto a lot of human spaceflight, but it's not why it happens.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 11/27/2013 11:33 pm
NASA did just launch MAVEN, which was somehow spun as a stepping stone to humans-to-Mars mission.

You're mixing issues. MAVEN is a real science mission, selected for its science goals and paid for from the science budget. If anybody talked about its benefits to human spaceflight, they weren't the ones who paid for it.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: catiare on 11/27/2013 11:44 pm
Once it became clear that wasn't going to work, there was no way Inspiration Mars was going to make the 2017 window.

One launch is still doable if we have FH+Raptor+Dragon. At least no one disagreed with this option (except for Raptor being touted as a Unicorn). But I agree with you: for this mission to have the most remote posibility of ever happening it needs to be an architecture as simple as that one. Perhaps some precursor missions should be made first like a Dragon BEO Test flight on LEO, Raptor test with dummy payload, Moon Flyby and maybe others to mitigate the risk and create some experience.

Also on a (not so) separate note, I noticed that there is a good bit of volume space in the nosecone of Dragon that could be utilize for storage on this mission (there is no docking happening) so the Dragon alone will have a bit more of volume available.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 11/28/2013 12:15 am
Also on a (not so) separate note, I noticed that there is a good bit of volume space in the nosecone of Dragon that could be utilize for storage on this mission (there is no docking happening) so the Dragon alone will have a bit more of volume available.

Unfortunately, the nose cone isn't part of the pressure vessel, and they're not planning any EVAs (no suits, ability to re-pressurize the Dragon, etc.), so anything they put in the nose cone won't be accessible to anyone in the Dragon.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: catiare on 11/28/2013 12:40 am

Also on a (not so) separate note, I noticed that there is a good bit of volume space in the nosecone of Dragon that could be utilize for storage on this mission (there is no docking happening) so the Dragon alone will have a bit more of volume available.

Unfortunately, the nose cone isn't part of the pressure vessel, and they're not planning any EVAs (no suits, ability to re-pressurize the Dragon, etc.), so anything they put in the nose cone won't be accessible to anyone in the Dragon.
Can they develop a nosecone that connects to vessel via the existing dock? That way it can be jettisoned prior to earth re-entry and no changes are needed on the capsule side.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 11/28/2013 01:17 am

Also on a (not so) separate note, I noticed that there is a good bit of volume space in the nosecone of Dragon that could be utilize for storage on this mission (there is no docking happening) so the Dragon alone will have a bit more of volume available.

Unfortunately, the nose cone isn't part of the pressure vessel, and they're not planning any EVAs (no suits, ability to re-pressurize the Dragon, etc.), so anything they put in the nose cone won't be accessible to anyone in the Dragon.
Can they develop a nosecone that connects to vessel via the existing dock? That way it can be jettisoned prior to earth re-entry and no changes are needed on the capsule side.

That might work.  It's additional development work, but a lot less than developing a new capsule from scratch.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: catiare on 11/28/2013 01:40 am


Also on a (not so) separate note, I noticed that there is a good bit of volume space in the nosecone of Dragon that could be utilize for storage on this mission (there is no docking happening) so the Dragon alone will have a bit more of volume available.

Unfortunately, the nose cone isn't part of the pressure vessel, and they're not planning any EVAs (no suits, ability to re-pressurize the Dragon, etc.), so anything they put in the nose cone won't be accessible to anyone in the Dragon.
Can they develop a nosecone that connects to vessel via the existing dock? That way it can be jettisoned prior to earth re-entry and no changes are needed on the capsule side.

That might work.  It's additional development work, but a lot less than developing a new capsule from scratch.
At least we found were to stow 1002 packages of Soylent :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 11/28/2013 05:52 am

Can they develop a nosecone that connects to vessel via the existing dock? That way it can be jettisoned prior to earth re-entry and no changes are needed on the capsule side.

That might work.  It's additional development work, but a lot less than developing a new capsule from scratch.

It does have the disadvantage that with the additional weight on top of Dragon they can very likely not do a launch abort.

No the only way to do it is do TMI and then get an additional module the way Apollo picked up the moon lander. Disconnect, turn and dock to the hab/storage module. If Falcon Heavy can insert both components into TMI the mission is possible.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 11/28/2013 12:33 pm
One launch is still doable if we have FH+Raptor+Dragon. At least no one disagreed with this option


Except for the Inspiration Mars people, who seem to have disagreed with this option by not choosing it.

Seriously, they are the ones who came up with the idea, and they are the ones who have studied it in most detail, and they are the ones who ultimately concluded that it could really only be done with an SLS. So why do you think that you know more than they do?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 11/28/2013 12:57 pm
One launch is still doable if we have FH+Raptor+Dragon. At least no one disagreed with this option


Except for the Inspiration Mars people, who seem to have disagreed with this option by not choosing it.

Seriously, they are the ones who came up with the idea, and they are the ones who have studied it in most detail, and they are the ones who ultimately concluded that it could really only be done with an SLS. So why do you think that you know more than they do?

Maybe they didn't chose it because they could not come up with the money and SpaceX does not do it for free?

And clearly the option presented now is not at all feasible. There is no way that proposed return capsule would be available in time.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 11/28/2013 01:15 pm
If Falcon Heavy can insert both components into TMI the mission is possible.
It can't.


One launch is still doable if we have FH+Raptor+Dragon. At least no one disagreed with this option (except for Raptor being touted as a Unicorn).

Except, you know, Inspiration Mars. Falcon Heavy isn't powerful enough. Dragon is too small. Raptor is a Unicorn. If it isn't, you shouldn't build a mission off of an engine of which nothing but the name, fuel and thrust level is known. A thrust level which would make it very hard to fit on FH too, but that's a topic for another thread.

Maybe they didn't chose it because they could not come up with the money and SpaceX does not do it for free?

And clearly the option presented now is not at all feasible. There is no way that proposed return capsule would be available in time.

Falcon Heavy isn't powerful enough, Dragon is too small. The NASA option wouldn't have been free for them either. Even if it were, they claimed that even the Block 1 SLS was too small for their mission. That is a launcher with twice the TLI capacity of Falcon Heavy. If it were about money, they would've gone with Block 1 SLS. But they didn't.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KelvinZero on 11/28/2013 01:19 pm
What roughly is the price division between
* the BEO space station portion of this goal, 500 day life support etc
* the Mars trajectory portion (ie the earth departure, navigation, return at BEO velocities)

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 11/28/2013 03:15 pm
Maybe they didn't chose it because they could not come up with the money and SpaceX does not do it for free?

A good place to look is The Space Review. They have a lot of brilliant, insightful, knowledgeable writers there:

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2409/1

"Taber MacCallum, program manager for the Inspiration Mars study, told reporters last week that the shift in architecture was driven by two factors. One was that the commercial systems they studied to do the mission “really didn’t come in with the kind of margins that gave us a good feeling about the risk associated with that,” he said, without going into greater detail. The other was their growing confidence that the SLS could do the job. “It’s a good thing the SLS is being developed,” he said. “We really came around to independently validating the need for SLS. I didn’t frankly start off as an SLS supporter in this, and I came around to being one.” "


Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 11/28/2013 04:40 pm
Maybe they didn't chose it because they could not come up with the money and SpaceX does not do it for free?

A good place to look is The Space Review. They have a lot of brilliant, insightful, knowledgeable writers there:

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2409/1

"Taber MacCallum, program manager for the Inspiration Mars study, told reporters last week that the shift in architecture was driven by two factors. One was that the commercial systems they studied to do the mission “really didn’t come in with the kind of margins that gave us a good feeling about the risk associated with that,” he said, without going into greater detail. The other was their growing confidence that the SLS could do the job. “It’s a good thing the SLS is being developed,” he said. “We really came around to independently validating the need for SLS. I didn’t frankly start off as an SLS supporter in this, and I came around to being one.” "

That's interesting, thanks. But do you see a huge discrepancy here? It says Falcon Heavy does not have margins. I can really believe that. But it also means it comes close. After all their initial architecture was FalconHeavy, Dragon and a hab module, without sufficient margin. Then why would SLS Block 1 not be good enough? It can lift more to LEO and it is much better than that BLEO.

Their proposed stack with a Cygnus and a very small version of Orion without SM cannot be much heavier than the originally intended stack.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: catiare on 11/28/2013 05:13 pm

If Falcon Heavy can insert both components into TMI the mission is possible.
It can't.


One launch is still doable if we have FH+Raptor+Dragon. At least no one disagreed with this option (except for Raptor being touted as a Unicorn).

Except, you know, Inspiration Mars. Falcon Heavy isn't powerful enough. Dragon is too small. Raptor is a Unicorn. If it isn't, you shouldn't build a mission off of an engine of which nothing but the name, fuel and thrust level is known. A thrust level which would make it very hard to fit on FH too, but that's a topic for another thread.

Maybe they didn't chose it because they could not come up with the money and SpaceX does not do it for free?

And clearly the option presented now is not at all feasible. There is no way that proposed return capsule would be available in time.

Falcon Heavy isn't powerful enough, Dragon is too small. The NASA option wouldn't have been free for them either. Even if it were, they claimed that even the Block 1 SLS was too small for their mission. That is a launcher with twice the TLI capacity of Falcon Heavy. If it were about money, they would've gone with Block 1 SLS. But they didn't.

The whole premise of a single launch is based on the fact that Zubrin has a mission that can land on the moon with one FH & Dragon launch.

If that is accurate, my assumption is that is good for the IM mission. See below a portion of his paper.
 
http://www.marssociety.org/home/press/news/theuseofspacexhardwaretoaccomplishnear-termhumanmarsmission

"...The SpaceX Falcon Heavy will have a launch capacity of 53 metric tons to low Earth orbit. This means that if a conventional hydrogen-oxygen chemical rocket upper stage were added, it could have the capability of sending about 17.5 tons on a trajectory to Mars..."

"...The capsule would carry 2500 kilograms of consumables, sufficient, if water and oxygen recycling systems are employed, to support the two-person crew for up to three years..."

"...The habitable volume of the Dragon capsule is admittedly lower than optimal. However it should be noted that with 5 cubic meters per crew member, it is 2.5 times higher than the 2 cubic meters per crew member possessed by Apollo crews. Alternative comparisons include 9 cubic meters per crew member on the Space Shuttle, or 8 cubic meters per crew member on a German U-Boat (Type VII, the fleet workhorse) during WWII. This would be uncomfortable, but ultimately, workable by a truly dedicated crew..."

He thinks that FH might be powerful enough (with proper upper stage) and Dragon big enough...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 11/28/2013 05:24 pm
The whole premise of a single launch is based on the fact that Zubrin has a mission that can land on the moon with one FH & Dragon launch.
Zubrin designed a mission to the moon? Interesting.
Quote
He thinks that FH might be powerful enough (with proper upper stage) and Dragon big enough...
What he thinks is different from what the IM team has found. If even Block 1 SLS doesn't provide enough margin, there's no way that Falcon Heavy does.

Dragon is, as he admitted, very cramped. And Zubrin's definition of "sufficient" has always been different from that of others. Besides, his plan seems like an afternoon at behind the keyboard. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but I think the findings of a 90-day study by several different engineers and scientists are more accurate than what Zubrin wrote.

Quote
(with proper upper stage)
Yup, here's yer problem.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: catiare on 11/28/2013 05:44 pm

The whole premise of a single launch is based on the fact that Zubrin has a mission that can land on the moon with one FH & Dragon launch.
Zubrin designed a mission to the moon? Interesting.

Sorry I meant Mars.

Quote
(with proper upper stage)
Yup, here's yer problem.

I was hoping that by doing one launch, this mission would be the one with less challenges to overcome.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: gbaikie on 11/28/2013 08:12 pm
Maybe they didn't chose it because they could not come up with the money and SpaceX does not do it for free?

A good place to look is The Space Review. They have a lot of brilliant, insightful, knowledgeable writers there:

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2409/1

"Taber MacCallum, program manager for the Inspiration Mars study, told reporters last week that the shift in architecture was driven by two factors. One was that the commercial systems they studied to do the mission “really didn’t come in with the kind of margins that gave us a good feeling about the risk associated with that,” he said, without going into greater detail. The other was their growing confidence that the SLS could do the job. “It’s a good thing the SLS is being developed,” he said. “We really came around to independently validating the need for SLS. I didn’t frankly start off as an SLS supporter in this, and I came around to being one.” "

The total travel time of 500 days is a problem.
Can one reduce the total travel time of a Mars fly by a significant amount less than 500 days?
If Earth was at Venus distance, then you could do a shorter round trip to Mars.
Therefore can one use Venus orbital distance in some way to shorter a Earth to Mars round trip?

"The total necessary burn velocity for the extension mission is approximately three times the total necessary burn velocity for the original mission. The transfer time of the original mission was .7092 years and the transfer time of the proposed extension is more dependent on the synodic period between Venus and Mars. As a worst case scenario, the payload would arrive to Venus and would have to wait the full synodic period before finishing its journey. This means that the largest travel time would be 1.9110 years, but the best case scenario would be having a total travel time of .9961 years. A benefit to going to Venus first is that it splits the travel time between planets into two trips. The first leg of the trip to Venus would take .4002 years and then there would be a resting period in an orbit around Mars for a maximum time of .9419 years. The last leg of the trip would be .5959 years. Both of these individual trips have a smaller travel time than the original mission travel time of .7092 years. "
http://ccar.colorado.edu/asen5050/projects/projects_2012/brissenden/

So I don't mean sending crew to Venus and Mars as above is suggesting. But instead I am talking about  sending not manned spacecraft to Venus. And marry a crewed spacecraft to this unmanned spacecraft at some point.
To review, according to above calculations the simple hohmann transfers from Earth to Mars is  .7092 years.

Or 365 days times .7092 years is 258.8 days [8.6 months].

And from Venus to Mars it is .5959 years.

Or 365 days times .5959 years is 217.5 days [7.2 months].

[The 500 day Mars flyby is both ways, and above is talking one leg of the trip.]

One of problems of 500 day trip is human need a lot mass for life support: food, water, and air.
And one get into a lot details trades in terms the lowering of the mass by recycling.
The mass requirement is very high for 500 day trip without doing this. But just in rough terms
of ballpark it's 10 kg per day per crew, so 2 is 10,000 kg.
So life support is main difference between a lunar flyby and a Mars flyby- one is week and the other
is over a year. So with a lunar flyby you remove the CO2, and that is recycling of life support, and
Apollo 13 had their problem with this life support system which involving fixing with some duct
tape, and etc. [Also their lack of power also meant colder conditions and lack of water].

So generally what getting to is Mars cycler which parks at Venus, which then leaves Venus to go to Mars which it will arrive at Mars in about 7.2 months.
On the way to Mars, it will cross Earth's orbit. So crew from Earth has to meet up this spacecraft going to Mars. And it has already spend say 3 month of it's trajectory travel time to Mars to reach Earth distance.
So when crew Earth dock with it, they will have about 4 months of travel to Mars.

BUT if you were to start from Venus and go to Mars, and if you would like to do to get to Mars quicker and with less delta-v, you could use planet earth for a gravity assist. But this requires an unique alignment, you not only need Venus and Mars to be in correct position but Earth to be in correction position.
But such unique alignment is needed if you want to send crew from Earth to meet up with the spacecraft which going from Venus to Mars.

So this is different. Now a simple hohmann transfer from Venus to Earth almost takes as long as simple hohmann transfer of Venus to Mars. But if using gravity assist you would not do simple hohmann transfer to Earth.
Instead it would be hohmann transfer which between Mars and Earth distance.
So using a hohmann transfer which has less delta-v than a Venus to Mars trajectory, and more than the delta-v of a Venus to Earth hohmann transfer. But other than being slightly less delta-v the major factor of such a gravity assist would be to get to Mars quicker than compared to a simple Venus to Mars hohmann transfer.
Or if there were inhabitants on Venus who want to do a manned program to Mars, using Earth as gravity assist would be a preferable way to get crew to Mars. Their crew could get to Mars quicker than 7.2 months. They would also prefer to return their crew back to Venus using gravity assist from Earth.  But again they would need to have Earth in the right location to do this.
So Venusian might want go to Mars via earth gravity assist but may have to return to Venus with a simple Mars to Venus hohmann transfer- because Earth isn't in the right location for their Mars exploration schedule.

So in terms Earthlings going to Mars, if the spacecraft is at the planet Venus, it has to leave Venus at right time so as go when Earth is in the position relative to Mars and Venus so you use earth for gravity assist, and to get crew from Earth to the spacecraft.

And with such a Venus to Earth gravity assist to Mars trajectory it take less time from Earth distance to get to Mars. So from Venus it take longer to to cross Earth orbital distance as it would to cross Earth orbital distance with a simple Venus to Mars hohmann transfer, but after the gravity assist you get to Mars quicker, thereby shortening the entire trip time. Or for Earth crew they will reach Mars quicker than 4 month period I mentioned above.

So what have discussed is direction in which one could possibly do a human flyby and return to Earth in less
than 500 days. Or least this this a way to get to Mars quicker, but I am not addressing the return trip back
to Earth.
So continuing to focus just on the outward leg to Mars. The advantages are numerous. First you get to Mars quicker. Second, addition food and life support and rocket fuel can sent with spacecraft which parks at Venus. The delta-v is less than as described in above reference [slightly] because it's not doing a Venus to Mars trajectory, but rather is in between a Venus to Earth and Mars trajectory.

If this spacecraft will park at Venus for any significant amount of time, then one might take option of not being near Venus.
What I mean by this, is if you going to stay at Venus, one should probably park at Venus/Sun L-2. This allows you park in the shade, or partial shade as Venus would block the Sunlight. And if using cryogenic LOX, this could be important. But also if don't want this shade, and/or want to be at different Venus orbital location than Planet Venus, you could travel to Venus/Sun L-4/5, which offset of Venus orbit by 60 degrees.
Going away from Venus loses you the Oberth effect of the Venus gravity well, but delta-v of Venus to Earth distance hohmann is low. So not much of a penalty, and one might even be using ion rockets- and so that case it doesn't matter at all in terms penalty. And one has some Oberth effect due to the faster Venus distance orbital velocity.
Next, the crew from Earth doesn't need much mass used for life support- other than for emergency abort options [failure to dock with spacecraft coming from Venus].
But crew vehicle does need enough rocket power to match the Venus spacecraft. But this rocket power can used again, if it is refueled from the Venus spacecraft.
So as the advantage of Mars cyclers one can more abundant living space, shielding ect on the cycler, and vehicles coming to them and leaving don't need to designed have as much shielding and living space, etc.
But such crewed spacecraft would probably need an Earth re-entry vehicle- for abort options. But dragon or Soyuz type spacecraft with stage that provide enough delta-v would work.

Of course this cycler can possible return to Venus orbit and be re-stocked and reused. Though it depends how the return leg is done.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: KelvinZero on 11/28/2013 09:03 pm
I think the point is that is free return. The demonstration of a reliable 500 day life support is actually the big plus for me. Achieving less life support requirement by using a bigger rocket would make it less interesting. If we ever want to visit Mars we need to get comfortable with multi year timespans away from possible rescue.

http://www.inspirationmars.org/
Quote
In 2018, the planets will literally align, offering a unique orbit opportunity to travel to Mars and back to Earth in only 501 days. Inspiration Mars is committed to sending a two-person American crew – a man and a woman – on an historic journey to fly within 100 miles around the Red Planet and return to Earth safely.

The mission’s target launch date is Jan. 5, 2018. This exceptionally quick, free-return orbit opportunity occurs twice every 15 years. After 2018, the next opportunity won’t occur again until 2031. The mission will provide a platform for unprecedented science, engineering and education opportunities, using state-of-the-art technologies derived from NASA and the International Space Station. It will be financed primarily through philanthropic donations, with some potential support from government sources.

I wonder if Levi's Jeans would sponsor this. "501 days to Mars, flying by the seat of your pants? Wear Levi's 501 Jeans!".. :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 11/30/2013 01:50 am
I wonder if Levi's Jeans would sponsor this. "501 days to Mars, flying by the seat of your pants? Wear Levi's 501 Jeans!".. :)

I realize that you're joking, but I've always doubted the ability to get advertising sponsors for very high risk events. Yeah, you might be able to get a bit--Red Bull tries to maintain an extreme image and so they sponsor extreme events, as do other energy drinks--but most potential advertisers don't want their name associated with something that kills people. "The disastrous Coca Cola Mars mission, which resulted in the deaths of two people..."
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 11/30/2013 02:00 am
but most potential advertisers don't want their name associated with something that kills people.

Citation required.

Or did you mean, in your opinion...

In my opinion, I think you couldn't buy that kind of advertising. It'd be so valuable that most news reports wouldn't even include the sponsorship details. I'm not sure why anyone would consider it relevant but, even if they did, they wouldn't want to provide the free promotion.

People regularly seek and find sponsorships to climb Mount Everest. Those very same people frequently die along the way. We never hear a thing about their sponsors when they do. National Geographic and other magazines have sponsored hundreds of expeditions, some that ended in tragedy, others that resulted in famous discoveries. It's part of the attraction.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: veblen on 11/30/2013 02:21 am
but most potential advertisers don't want their name associated with something that kills people.

Citation required.

Or did you mean, in your opinion...

In my opinion, I think you couldn't buy that kind of advertising. It'd be so valuable that most news reports wouldn't even include the sponsorship details. I'm not sure why anyone would consider it relevant but, even if they did, they wouldn't want to provide the free promotion.

People regularly seek and find sponsorships to climb Mount Everest. Those very same people frequently die along the way. We never hear a thing about their sponsors when they do. National Geographic and other magazines have sponsored hundreds of expeditions, some that ended in tragedy, others that resulted in famous discoveries. It's part of the attraction.

Several years ago (25 maybe) Air Canada sponsored a team climbing Mt. Everest. Several people died, including many sherpas. It was a horrible disaster in human terms and a PR nightmare for the airline.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 11/30/2013 02:37 am
Several years ago (25 maybe) Air Canada sponsored a team climbing Mt. Everest. Several people died, including many sherpas. It was a horrible disaster in human terms and a PR nightmare for the airline.

1992 to be precise. How was it a PR nightmare, exactly? It's hard to imagine anyone choosing not to fly Air Canada as a result.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 11/30/2013 04:00 am
Several years ago (25 maybe) Air Canada sponsored a team climbing Mt. Everest. Several people died, including many sherpas. It was a horrible disaster in human terms and a PR nightmare for the airline.

1992 to be precise. How was it a PR nightmare, exactly? It's hard to imagine anyone choosing not to fly Air Canada as a result.

hmm...  by that logic, it's hard to imagine anyone choosing to fly Air Canada since some mountain climbers were successful.

Image advertising is not for the rationally minded....

But - for better or for worse, it's a unique opportunity.  They'll need (and maybe find) a unique advertiser.

Now that this is solved, if only there was a credible plan to actually do it...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 11/30/2013 04:49 am
hmm...  by that logic, it's hard to imagine anyone choosing to fly Air Canada since some mountain climbers were successful.

That isn't anything like what I said. They sponsored the expedition because it gave them exposure. The only thing worse than bad press is no press (and some would say bad press is better than no press). They're certainly not the first place you'd go looking for flights to the Himalayas.. unless you're Canadian.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: IRobot on 11/30/2013 07:55 am
Several years ago (25 maybe) Air Canada sponsored a team climbing Mt. Everest. Several people died, including many sherpas. It was a horrible disaster in human terms and a PR nightmare for the airline.

1992 to be precise. How was it a PR nightmare, exactly? It's hard to imagine anyone choosing not to fly Air Canada as a result.
Red Bull is used to sponsor events where people do stupid/reckless things. Serious injury/death is expected on those events. So there are companies out there that can sponsor it.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: veblen on 11/30/2013 04:50 pm
Several years ago (25 maybe) Air Canada sponsored a team climbing Mt. Everest. Several people died, including many sherpas. It was a horrible disaster in human terms and a PR nightmare for the airline.

1992 to be precise. How was it a PR nightmare, exactly? It's hard to imagine anyone choosing not to fly Air Canada as a result.

BANNER headlines blaming Air Canada for the disaster. I think it is easy for you to sit where ever you are and pretend AC management didn't feel the heat for sponsoring an expedition that turned out to be a total disaster with many lives lost.

And is it safe to assume you think sacrificing human lives is okay as long as it doesn't hurt the bottom line? That is just not reality, very simplistic on your part. The world is not actually like that.  Ethics matter, even on the way to Mars. Otherwise we should just send robots and save a lot of money.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 11/30/2013 04:57 pm
And is it safe to assume you think sacrificing human lives is okay as long as it doesn't hurt the bottom line? That is just not reality, very simplistic on your part. The world is not actually like that.  Ethics matter, even on the way to Mars. Otherwise we should just send robots and save a lot of money.

Were those people sent up the MtEverest under threat of killing their families or were they doing it under their own motivation, just financially aided by Air Canada?

If any Mission to Mars gives them a decent chance of survival and they are volunteers knowing the risk I don't see a moral problem.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: veblen on 11/30/2013 06:32 pm
And is it safe to assume you think sacrificing human lives is okay as long as it doesn't hurt the bottom line? That is just not reality, very simplistic on your part. The world is not actually like that.  Ethics matter, even on the way to Mars. Otherwise we should just send robots and save a lot of money.

Were those people sent up the MtEverest under threat of killing their families or were they doing it under their own motivation, just financially aided by Air Canada?

If any Mission to Mars gives them a decent chance of survival and they are volunteers knowing the risk I don't see a moral problem.

The risk is not borne solely by the individual climbing Mt. Everest or rocketing into space. After disasters there are repercussions for the people who are still around. These are not minor considerations. This will be true regardless of whoever sponsors a trip to Mars. And, on a practical note, a dead human in space is not exploring anything. They are just sadly dead.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 11/30/2013 06:38 pm
The truth is nobody really knows all the effects for a company of sponsoring something that goes tragically wrong.  Does the benefit of exposure outweigh the negative connotations formed in some people's minds?  There's not a lot of real evidence either way, so all we can do is guess based on what the very limited evidence suggests.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: gbaikie on 11/30/2013 09:17 pm
To continue with:
-The total travel time of 500 days is a problem.
Can one reduce the total travel time of a Mars fly by a significant amount less than 500 days?-

So I discussed how you could get to Mars in period of about 3 months of less.
So 90 days or less, but can get back earth in less than say 400 days?

From Mars you can get to Venus with hohmann transfer orbit in 217.5 days-
leaving less than 80 days to get to Earth- which too short of time period.
 
But since trajectory from Venus to Earth using gravity assist to Mars is not starting with simple hohmann
transfer orbit to Mars distance and it only by getting gravity assist at Mars, could have option turn into
the simple trajectory hohmann transfer orbit from Mars to Venus.
And could add less velocity from such gravity assist and cross Venus orbit sooner than  217.5 days
and so that makes the travel travel from Mars back to Venus less than 217.5 days.
Or without some course correction at gravity well of Mars it doesn't have a hohmann trajectory back to Venus distance.
So say if Mars wasn't there. You do the gravity assist so Mars was there, but what if it wasn't there, where
would the trajectory go?

Simple answer is it would is depends where it is directed it, it could fall short of Mars orbital by a bit, or could go beyond Mars orbit by a bit. It seems to work better it would tend to go beyond Mars orbital distance.
So in other words it something *like* a typical Earth transfer to Mars which are shorter time periods than simply Hohmann transfer which takes less than "258.8 days [8.6 months]".
So similarly if going to Mars in less than 8 months and if there was not course correction, you go beyond Mars orbital distance.

So a *similar* thing to this, but after the Earth gravity assist you not in a Venus [or Earth] hohmann transfer of any distance, so after the earth gravity assist it's not *actually* close to resembling Venus hohmann transfer which little bit further than Mars distance.
A gravity assist *changes* the vector, and hohmann transfers aren't about changing the real vector of a trajectory [higher velocity makes them less curved- so looks like it's changing vector].
So once captured by Mars gravitational sphere of influence, one *can* thereby get back to hohmann type trajectory- so  217.5 days [or a shorter time period]

But as said what if Mars wasn't there, where would it go?
So the changing of vector is killing orbital velocity or converting orbital velocity, gravity assist can add to orbital speed, but they mostly used to change vector- [wiki: "Gravity assistance can be used to accelerate, decelerate and/or re-direct the path of a spacecraft."]

To clarify, what I mean if you coming from Venus and your objective is to use Earth to get to Mars in shorter period of time, then you would use the gravity assist to change it's vector. Or if used to increase the trajectory speed, it will get to Mars requiring more time than a simple Venus to Mars hohmann transfer.

So where does it go?
It's going to fall past Venus orbital distance. It's perihelion of orbit will closer to the sun than Venus orbital distance.

So with Mars being there, you could do gravity assist which decrease it trajectory so it goes even further to towards the sun.
So with little delta-v needed you  go to Mercury distance. and  from there a hohmann transfer to Earth is from mercury distance is 105 days
And from venus distance it is  ".4002 years" [146 days]

And in either case whether near Venus or Mercury you don't have *to have* any planet at trajectory's perihelion.
But since less than Venus orbital distance will intersect Venus orbit at two points [coming in and going out] and planet is at such points could another gravity assist
[As if I am not making it confusing enough].

So less than 3 months to Mars, one could alter trajectory to hit Mercury distance using Mars gravity assist.
And if at say Mercury distance one could use rocket power, so as to reduce aphelion so does not return to Mars distance.
So without any burn Mercury distance it returns near Mars orbital distance or use enough rocket power to reduce aphelion so it's Mercury to Earth distance- and Mercury to Earth Hohmann transfer is 105 days
So could have 90 days to Mars and 105 days from last leg from Mercury to Earth. Leaving an somewhat unknown value of time going from Mars to Mercury.
Neither 90 or 105 are fixed values, but are ballpark numbers which could be done. So 90 plus 105 days is 195.
500 minus 195 days is 305 days to equal total 500 days. So getting from Mars to Mercury will take far less 300 days.
And roughly indicates a way do a flyby in less than 500 days and perhaps more than 100 to 200 days shorter.

Let's return back to point of idea of no Mars planet being at Mars distance, getting to Mars distance 90 days or less from Earth, and this trajectory should return
to sun should be nearer the sun than Venus distance. And this isn't a hohmann type transfer orbit between planets. It will go beyond Mars slowing down further.

You need a gravity well to convert it into hohmann transfer. And/or a Mars gravity well *can* be used to change vector and/or add or substract speed.

So let's use graphics.
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=1999%20MN;orb=1
That orbit give roughly idea regard what orbit could vaguely look like on leg back from Mars.
Though it's aphelion does not come close to reaching Mars. So if it's aphelion closer to Mars it would a better example.
But in terms it's perihelion it's crosses Venus and Mercury orbital distance and example about nearest to sun would probably want to go.
This particular orbit has period time of .55 of year [200.75 days]. And if aphelion was further towards Mars it would around + .6 years [219 days].
[So say 220 to 240 days.]
And crossing earth orbit [earth would not be near it] and it crosses Venus and Mercury twice [in which either planet Venus or Mercury could there at either of these four intersects. Or one can the neither of these planets at the intersect points and have earth in right location on path to back out to Mars distance.
So without any gravity assist from inward leg passing Venus and Mercury's orbit, it crosses Earth orbit in about 200 days.
Take about graph move to May 1 2014. At this point crew leave Earth to Mars. And 90 days later arrive on Mars. On diagram Mars would roughly
in right location. So August 1. Crew could roughly stay out to 20 days in Mars sphere of influence [flyby/gravity assist]. Then match that rock's trajectory [if had higher aphelion]. This is visual aid rather rather some kind of exact trajectory.
So 90 days, plus 20 days. And plus the trajectory roughly crosses Mercury orbital distance. Taking 200 days to cross earth.
Total days is 310 days. And so that passes in front earth. So that means you want a slower trajectory. So around 255 days get earth at same day of year of year crew left earth. And if using Venus or Mercury for gravity, you return to Earth in less than 365 days.

So one needs a lot delta-v for crew get to this trajectory, and need insignificant amount of delta-v at Mars, and insignificant amounts delta-v if gravity assisting from Venus or Mercury [essentially course correct kind of stuff]. Then you entering Earth's gravitation sphere influence at high velocity. And so need
some rocket braking and/or high velocity- atmospheric reentry.[without rocket power- it seems it easily exceeds Apollo return velocities. But if refuel the craft which brought the crew to the "Venus to Mars cycler" you could have enough rocket power to do a powered gravity assist then an atmospheric re-entry.

So the economics of it,
Roughly, something like a Dragon and stage at say Earth/Moon L-1. [stage not expended until final Earth re-entry].
Something to get crew to L-1 [could be the dragon and stage which refueled at L-1- so need rocket fuel at L-1 and earth
launch of crew which could go directly to L-1 and refuel- taking about week or less].
Cycler:
It takes less delta-v to get to Venus than Mars- and don't want to park in Low Venus orbit. To sure if one even want to stay
close to Venus, though one could say you will stay somewhere within L-points of Venus.
Need more delta-v at venus than simple Venus to Earth hohmann transfer, instead it will resemble a hohmann transfer somewhere
between a Earth and Mars distance.
So cylcer needs say total of more than year of life support for crew: so 10 kg time 365 days is 3560 kgs of water [mostly] food,
and oxygen. Plus crew living space, and airlock and life support equipment. And somewhere around 100 tons of rocket fuel for
refuel crew spacecraft. So in total mass of payload is about 150 tons. And entire gross mass somewhere less than 250 tons.
So let's try 50,000 per kg to get it to Venus. That is 12.5 billion dollars. And to get 100 tons of rocket fuel to Venus at same
price is 5 billion dollars. We should not expect launch cost to be 1/2 this amount nor twice this amount.
And vehicle it self should cost about 1 billion or more.
And to reuse costs somewhere more than 5 billion. Or reuse is not a significant cost saving. And major cost is lifting the mass from
Earth to Venus distance.
So can it be done with fuel depots?
Obviously no launch vehicle can lift 250 ton to + Earth escape. Of course it's mostly rocket fuel. And cycler can to be modular.
The main task is having rocket fuel to porvide the delta-v to cross Earth orbit which brought Venus- and to have rocket fuel to
refuel crew vehicle. So main thing is do you need this rough estimate of 100 tons of rocket fuel. If was only 50 tons needed
it would make a lot difference. And tends to make me think LH&LOX rocket fuel would have advantage despite it's storage
problems.
Now this is flyby, but we think ahead to Mars landing, you don't need much rocket fuel to land on Mars. Or could easily say
less than 5 km/sec.
And didn't calculate the amount of delta-v for flyby return to earth- how much is need for powered gravity assist, but perhaps
5 km/sec delta-v could be within a ballpark. So crew out needs somewhere around 7 km/sec from L-1 to Mars trajectory,
2 km/sec of it could be another stage, leaving 5 km/sec stage to be refueled. So how much mass of rocket fuel needed
to add 5 km/sec to dragon capsule?
Anyways, without fuel depots, one have two stages, one 2 Km/sec and other 5 km/sec, and it could dock with capsule like a Dragon at L-1.
Anyways how to get 200 to 250 tons cycler to Venus?
Seem like you have to make the Mars cycler into a fuel depot. You you don't already have fuel depots, but
Mars cycler is one. So it's got solar panels and active refrigeration to store LH&LOX. Large solar array. And array
is placed between spacecraft and the Sun. And one has lots other thermal sheilding plus active refrigeration.
So it handle transit to from and to Venus. And if at Venus L-2 it can have sun partially blocked.
Perhaps design where one has reflective cone in middle, say 10 feet diameter and 5 feet to tip of cone- so
around 45 degree angle which reflects light to solar panel on it's perimeter. So it could open like flower.
So petal are about 4 feet long and folded, so narrower when folded into cone and and narrower part made
wider when opened. So approimate ring of 14 feet diameter with 10 ft donut hole, so 75 square feet.
But want meters, so 6.8 square meters. With solar flux of 1.3 to 2.7 kW. So 8.8 to 18 kW times ,2
is 1.7 to 3.6 kW. So somewhere close. Maybe say 4 meter diameter cone. And said behind this you
further thermal protection.
Bottom line it's about 12 billion dollars. And if only around 50 tons,  2 1/2 billion to restock and make
reusing it more appealing. As you go to Mars again, for about 4 billion dollars per trip.
So for entire program say 12 trip: 12 plus 48 billion. So 60 billion for crew. And probably about
100 billion for rest of it. So 160 billion over 20 year- 8 billion per year. Though maybe it's 30
years worth- 6 billion per year. And 24 crew [or more] on Mars. So requires crew to stay more
than 1 year on Mars on average. Like 2 to 3 years average. But than since added decade
more than 100 billion for everything else- say 150 billion. So back up to 7 billion per year
average, total 210 billion dollars.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 11/30/2013 09:48 pm
So let's try 50,000 per kg to get it to Venus. That is 12.5 billion dollars. And to get 100 tons of rocket fuel to Venus at same
price is 5 billion dollars. We should not expect launch cost to be 1/2 this amount nor twice this amount.

Where do those numbers come from?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: gbaikie on 11/30/2013 09:59 pm
So let's try 50,000 per kg to get it to Venus. That is 12.5 billion dollars. And to get 100 tons of rocket fuel to Venus at same
price is 5 billion dollars. We should not expect launch cost to be 1/2 this amount nor twice this amount.

Where do those numbers come from?

Just a rough guess, I said one should not expect to be 1/2 this amount nor twice this amount.
Purpose of my post is I had given earlier post in which I had not tried to arrive at fast return from Mars, but only dealt getting to Mars quickly. So my last post, was filling in that gap to question:
Can you do faster than 500 days flyby and return to Earth.
None it includes details such the best time to launch to Mars due favorable orbital alignment, but rather it's
general approach to getting to and from Mars to Earth surface in less than 500 days.

Do think $50,000 per kg to get to Venus orbit is too high or to low?
Venus is easier to get to than Mars, and not going to the surface or even low orbit around Venus.
So if you think it would cost more per kg, I am interested in how much you think it cost per kg, to put something on Mars surface?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 11/30/2013 10:08 pm
So let's try 50,000 per kg to get it to Venus. That is 12.5 billion dollars. And to get 100 tons of rocket fuel to Venus at same
price is 5 billion dollars. We should not expect launch cost to be 1/2 this amount nor twice this amount.

Where do those numbers come from?

Just a rough guess, I said one should not expect to be 1/2 this amount nor twice this amount.
Purpose of my post is I had given earlier post in which I had not tried to arrive at fast return from Mars, but only dealt getting to Mars quickly. So my last post, was filling in that gap to question:
Can you do faster than 500 days flyby and return to Earth.
None it includes details such the best time to launch to Mars due favorable orbital alignment, but rather it's
general approach to getting to and from Mars to Earth surface in less than 500 days.

Do think $50,000 per kg to get to Venus orbit is too high or to low?
Venus is easier to get to than Mars, and not going to the surface or even low orbit around Venus.
So if you think it would cost more per kg, I am interested in how much you think it cost per kg, to put something on Mars surface?

I don't have any opinion yet on whether $50,000 per kg to get to Venus orbit is too high, too low, or exactly right.  That's why I was asking where your numbers came from.

You say it's "just a rough guess", and that's fine, but surely you have some reasoning behind this guess.  What's that reasoning?  I'm interested to see whether I find that reasoning compelling or not.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 11/30/2013 10:12 pm
But perhaps we can agree to take this discussion to a different thread?  Your proposed Venus/Mars plan is interesting, but I really don't think it belongs on the Inspiration Mars thread.  Perhaps you could repost your plan to a new thread?  I'd create the thread myself, but since it's your proposal, I think it makes sense for you to create the thread.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 11/30/2013 10:13 pm
For Ariane 5, it's actually very close at about 51k dollars to C3=12. I don't know the exact C3 of Venus though, could be much lower.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 11/30/2013 10:53 pm
So let's try 50,000 per kg to get it to Venus. That is 12.5 billion dollars. And to get 100 tons of rocket fuel to Venus at same
price is 5 billion dollars. We should not expect launch cost to be 1/2 this amount nor twice this amount.

Where do those numbers come from?


Well, long, rambling posts that seem to not really be responding to anything anybody else wrote.

You wanna guess where the numbers come from?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 11/30/2013 10:54 pm
The truth is nobody really knows all the effects for a company of sponsoring something that goes tragically wrong.  Does the benefit of exposure outweigh the negative connotations formed in some people's minds?  There's not a lot of real evidence either way, so all we can do is guess based on what the very limited evidence suggests.


Except you're talking about the "effects," meaning what happens after.

My point is that the great uncertainty coupled with the possibility of tragedy is likely to scare off advertisers before.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: gbaikie on 11/30/2013 11:01 pm
ChrisWilson68:
Quote
I don't have any opinion yet on whether $50,000 per kg to get to Venus orbit is too high, too low, or exactly right.  That's why I was asking where your numbers came from.

You say it's "just a rough guess", and that's fine, but surely you have some reasoning behind this guess.  What's that reasoning?  I'm interested to see whether I find that reasoning compelling or not.
Some suggest that one could put payload on the lunar surface for $80,000 per kg.
I think you do for much less. But it should less to put something in Venus orbit than
compared to lunar surface.
And lots of people have claimed a lower cost per kg to lunar surface.
It depends who doing. Private sector or China for instance.
But since this generally a NASA type mission I figured I would tend to put on high side.
So I was interested if someone thought it wasn't high enough.
I think wildly optimistic [or fudging] for it to be lower than $25,000 per kg.

Quote
But perhaps we can agree to take this discussion to a different thread?  Your proposed Venus/Mars plan is interesting, but I really don't think it belongs on the Inspiration Mars thread.  Perhaps you could repost your plan to a new thread?  I'd create the thread myself, but since it's your proposal, I think it makes sense for you to create the thread.

I think it's related because it's a comparison.
But took your suggestion and put it on older thread related to this:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=25742.msg1126413#msg1126413
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 12/01/2013 01:53 am
BANNER headlines blaming Air Canada for the disaster.

Citation needed.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lar on 12/01/2013 02:38 am
BANNER headlines blaming Air Canada for the disaster.

Citation needed.

Air Canada said, in 1983, they were happy.  http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=ThgiAAAAIBAJ&sjid=LKUFAAAAIBAJ&pg=6408%2C3242712

My google fu is not that good. I used this search ...

https://www.google.com/search?client=opera&q=air+canada+Everest+sponsorship

Mostly I saw positive press. So I'd be interested to see the banner headlines too. And whether they outweighted the press I found. (criticism seemed to be of the form "why spend money on this when the airline is losing money?" more than "horrid deaths are Air Canada's fault" )

There was a book. http://books.google.com/books?id=94pV1PMJbpYC  The author no doubt is biased since he was a participant.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: darkbluenine on 12/01/2013 03:10 am
The truth is nobody really knows all the effects for a company of sponsoring something that goes tragically wrong.  Does the benefit of exposure outweigh the negative connotations formed in some people's minds?  There's not a lot of real evidence either way, so all we can do is guess based on what the very limited evidence suggests.

There's arguably evidence in sponsored motorsports.  For example, U.S. automobile racing has claimed an average of 22  fatalities _per year_ since 1990, including drivers, crew, and spectators:

http://savannahnow.com/stories/111201/SPTracingdeaths.shtml

Most shocking, 29 of these were spectators, including five children. 

Even at the highest professional level, motorsports leagues average about one driver fatality per year:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NASCAR_fatal_accidents
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Formula_One_fatal_accidents
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fatal_accidents_in_motorboat_racing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fatal_World_Rally_Championship_accidents

The most extreme incidents have led corporations to withdraw from or shut down events.  Mercedes Benz withdrew from all motorsports for decades when a 300 SLR killed 83 spectators and its driver and injured 120 other spectators at the 1955 Le Mans:

http://jalopnik.com/when-spectators-pay-the-price-for-the-dangers-of-auto-r-416344575

But corporate withdrawal from motorsport sponsorships and events after an accident seems to be the exception, rather than the rule, given the frequency of fatalities.

FWIW...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 12/01/2013 05:28 am
Interesting, but I'll draw a fine distinction here:

Companies don't want to be associated with failure.  They're fine with the occasional fatality, it's accepted by everyone as part of the game.

Whether this will be the same if the IM crew dies - hard to tell, since there's no precedent.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: geza on 12/01/2013 06:06 am
I am from the Apollo generation. I was strongly shaped by growing up at that specific moment of human history. Also, I was touched quite strongly, when a space disaster struck. It was not like "a few people died in an accident in a distant country". It was like if I lost somebody close to me. Since that time, human spaceflight became quite boring. Worse: sometime it is a blatant lie. IM is inspiring, again. If it will happen, my life will be affected - good, or bad. It is very frightening to imagine, that I know that they have troubles up there with their life support. I can understand, if somebody is afraid to be associated with this plan...
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 12/02/2013 01:33 am
Maybe they didn't chose it because they could not come up with the money and SpaceX does not do it for free?

A good place to look is The Space Review. They have a lot of brilliant, insightful, knowledgeable writers there:

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2409/1

"Taber MacCallum, program manager for the Inspiration Mars study, told reporters last week that the shift in architecture was driven by two factors. One was that the commercial systems they studied to do the mission “really didn’t come in with the kind of margins that gave us a good feeling about the risk associated with that,” he said, without going into greater detail. The other was their growing confidence that the SLS could do the job. “It’s a good thing the SLS is being developed,” he said. “We really came around to independently validating the need for SLS. I didn’t frankly start off as an SLS supporter in this, and I came around to being one.” "

I would add the observation that the USG has consistently stated that it prefers to send US astros to Mars as soon as is practible.  Despite the obvious funding discrepancies and the decades away launch date of a useful SLS, they continue to attempt to build a rocket to fulfill this mission.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 12/02/2013 01:37 am
Even at the highest professional level, motorsports leagues average about one driver fatality per year:

...

The most extreme incidents have led corporations to withdraw from or shut down events.  Mercedes Benz withdrew from all motorsports for decades when a 300 SLR killed 83 spectators and its driver ...

More recently, it is interesting to note that the journalist Michael Hastings was killed when his Mercedes exploded, but the incident did not result in any recalls by Mercedes of the model he was driving.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 12/02/2013 01:42 am
I wonder if Levi's Jeans would sponsor this. "501 days to Mars, flying by the seat of your pants? Wear Levi's 501 Jeans!"...

I typically wear 505 jeans.  My team would come in second and not get any good publicity to speak of.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Vultur on 12/06/2013 04:13 am
The SLS thing seems  unfortunate. I think to have any chance of actually doing it they'd have to use Falcon Heavy (or other commercial launcher, Delta IV Heavy or whatever).
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 12/06/2013 04:40 pm
The SLS thing seems  unfortunate. I think to have any chance of actually doing it they'd have to use Falcon Heavy (or other commercial launcher, Delta IV Heavy or whatever).

Except that the people who did the analysis determined that this was the way to do it.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 12/06/2013 05:11 pm
The SLS thing seems  unfortunate. I think to have any chance of actually doing it they'd have to use Falcon Heavy (or other commercial launcher, Delta IV Heavy or whatever).

Except that the people who did the analysis determined that this was the way to do it.

The motivation behind the analysis is unclear to me.

The analysis says using Falcon Heavy does not give any margin. But that means basically Falcon Heavy could do it. If Falcon Heavy could do it I don't understand why SLS needs a new advanced upper stage. Block I is already much more capable than Falcon Heavy. So why do they call for development of that new upper stage? It makes me assume the possibility there are motivations beyond Inspiration Mars needs at play.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 12/06/2013 06:04 pm
The analysis says using Falcon Heavy does not give any margin.

Go learn about the meaning of "margin."
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 12/06/2013 08:19 pm
The SLS thing seems  unfortunate. I think to have any chance of actually doing it they'd have to use Falcon Heavy (or other commercial launcher, Delta IV Heavy or whatever).

Except that the people who did the analysis determined that this was the way to do it.

The motivation behind the analysis is unclear to me.

The analysis says using Falcon Heavy does not give any margin. But that means basically Falcon Heavy could do it. If Falcon Heavy could do it I don't understand why SLS needs a new advanced upper stage. Block I is already much more capable than Falcon Heavy. So why do they call for development of that new upper stage? It makes me assume the possibility there are motivations beyond Inspiration Mars needs at play.

Motivation? Yes, to have their mission. Just because they are claiming a piece of SpaceX hardware is not their optimum choice doesn't assume their analysis is incorrect or their exists a hidden agenda.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 12/06/2013 09:01 pm
Motivation? Yes, to have their mission. Just because they are claiming a piece of SpaceX hardware is not their optimum choice doesn't assume their analysis is incorrect or their exists a hidden agenda.

You got my motivation wrong, I assure you. I did not try to promote using Falcon Heavy. I believe the analysis is very likely correct that FH does not give them necessary margin.

What I am trying to say, if FH comes close, as the analysis seems to imply, then why is SLS Block I not enough?

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 12/06/2013 09:02 pm
The analysis says using Falcon Heavy does not give any margin.

Go learn about the meaning of "margin."

Oh please!

Edit: OK. My understanding of margin in this connection is that Falcon Heavy is just barely able to fly the mission but the slightest increase of mission mass or the slightest underperformance of Falcon Heavy would kill the mission. Which is not acceptable, so Falcon Heavy is out.

Tell me if my understanding of english is off the mark.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 12/06/2013 11:29 pm
The SLS thing seems  unfortunate. I think to have any chance of actually doing it they'd have to use Falcon Heavy (or other commercial launcher, Delta IV Heavy or whatever).

Except that the people who did the analysis determined that this was the way to do it.

Maybe they're just wrong?

So far they've produced nothing, what makes them so infallible to you?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: darkbluenine on 12/07/2013 05:05 am
The SLS thing seems  unfortunate. I think to have any chance of actually doing it they'd have to use Falcon Heavy (or other commercial launcher, Delta IV Heavy or whatever).

It doesn't make a lot of sense.  The IM report argues that three launches is one too many and poses too much mission/program risk.  But the report basically trades that one risk for multiple other mission/program risks, including that:  SLS will work on its first launch; DUUS development can be accelerated by six years; MPCV can be equipped and work with a higher temp heatshield when it's 5K lbs. overweight for it parachutes; and NASA/White House/Congress will fund DUUS acceleration, a variant MPCV, and a Cygnus/ISS ECLSS-based hab. 

It's all angels dancing on pinheads given the schedule, but it's hard to see how an architecture that assumes three launches over a period of weeks, when industry does that today, is substantially more risky than a two-launch architecture that requires major changes to government hardware that's been in work for years and then bets all that hardware on the first launch of an HLV.

I suspect the choices in the IM report have as much to do with Tito running into a brick wall in terms of private fundraising as they do with mission and programmatic risk.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: QuantumG on 12/07/2013 05:54 am
I suspect the choices in the IM report have as much to do with Tito running into a brick wall in terms of private fundraising

His comments on the Hill reflect that. He said that he thought he would have no problem raising contributions, once a NASA program was underway. Where his confidence comes from is a question, but the failure to raise private money for anything that people think is "NASA's job" is not new.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 12/07/2013 08:39 am
Motivation? Yes, to have their mission. Just because they are claiming a piece of SpaceX hardware is not their optimum choice doesn't assume their analysis is incorrect or their exists a hidden agenda.

You got my motivation wrong, I assure you. I did not try to promote using Falcon Heavy. I believe the analysis is very likely correct that FH does not give them necessary margin.

What I am trying to say, if FH comes close, as the analysis seems to imply, then why is SLS Block I not enough?


It's possible that they assumed a hydrogen-oxygen in-space stage for Falcon Heavy, which would have given very similar performance, if not identical to, the Block 1 with iCPS. Most of the reason that Block 1 performs better to high-energy trajectories than Falcon Heavy is because the bigger core allows a more elliptical parking orbit, but such an orbit would be unreachable by Com Crew vehicles. This would force the iCPS+payload to be sent into LEO, where it has no advantage over Falcon Heavy+iCPS.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Vultur on 12/08/2013 04:46 am
The SLS thing seems  unfortunate. I think to have any chance of actually doing it they'd have to use Falcon Heavy (or other commercial launcher, Delta IV Heavy or whatever).

Except that the people who did the analysis determined that this was the way to do it.

Well, yes.

But I think that using SLS is overly optimistic about the schedule of SLS ... or even it ever existing at all. I have much more confidence that Falcon Heavy will fly than that SLS will; much less likely to be killed by politics.

Plus using SLS would give NASA veto power over the mission and I doubt they'd accept the risks this would need to take.

If it needs SLS, it won't happen (IMO).

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: newpylong on 12/09/2013 04:40 pm
The SLS thing seems  unfortunate. I think to have any chance of actually doing it they'd have to use Falcon Heavy (or other commercial launcher, Delta IV Heavy or whatever).

Except that the people who did the analysis determined that this was the way to do it.

Well, yes.

But I think that using SLS is overly optimistic about the schedule of SLS ... or even it ever existing at all. I have much more confidence that Falcon Heavy will fly than that SLS will; much less likely to be killed by politics.

Plus using SLS would give NASA veto power over the mission and I doubt they'd accept the risks this would need to take.

If it needs SLS, it won't happen (IMO).

I think it's a given Falcon Heavy will fly and before SLS, but it doesn't matter what vehicle they choose, they won't raise enough capital in time.

It is a big if, but IF NASA signed an agreement allowing the use of their booster, you would expect language  to protect all sides but also ensure the mission can occur.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: outward on 12/10/2013 02:29 am
It seems odd in IM's architecture study that initially they drop SLS/Orion from consideration (pg 11) for reasons many of you have already raised, but further on, beginning just a page later, decide upon a hybrid solution that includes the SLS and a modified Orion. It felt as if I had missed something. What really changed? 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 01/31/2014 08:17 pm
It seems odd in IM's architecture study that initially they drop SLS/Orion from consideration (pg 11) for reasons many of you have already raised, but further on, beginning just a page later, decide upon a hybrid solution that includes the SLS and a modified Orion. It felt as if I had missed something. What really changed?
They raised four problems with SLS/Orion:

1. Orion can't take the reentry speeds for this trajectory.

2. Upgrading Orion's ECLSS would make the craft too heavy, to the point where an abort is no longer possible.

3. SLS Block 1B won't be available in time.

4. SLS/Orion would mean that people would be on board of the first launch

The hybrid solution tosses away using Orion as the sole crew vehicle and replaces it with a hab/specialized pod approach, therefore alleviating the first two problems. Problem four was fixed by adding a commercial crew vehicle to the mix. Only problem 3 is a real one, and in my opinion one of the biggest ones, though they claim DUUS could be accelerated to 2017 if funding was freed up.

Hope I answered your questions.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 02/01/2014 06:50 pm
This (http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2409/1) was published in November...

Quote
Tito said later that an unnamed member of Congress would introduce a bill “in the next week or two” about the mission, but declined to name that member or members, or the contents of the bill.

I guess that went nowhere. :(
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: outward on 02/11/2014 02:49 pm
It seems odd in IM's architecture study that initially they drop SLS/Orion from consideration (pg 11) for reasons many of you have already raised, but further on, beginning just a page later, decide upon a hybrid solution that includes the SLS and a modified Orion. It felt as if I had missed something. What really changed?
They raised four problems with SLS/Orion:

1. Orion can't take the reentry speeds for this trajectory.

2. Upgrading Orion's ECLSS would make the craft too heavy, to the point where an abort is no longer possible.

3. SLS Block 1B won't be available in time.

4. SLS/Orion would mean that people would be on board of the first launch

The hybrid solution tosses away using Orion as the sole crew vehicle and replaces it with a hab/specialized pod approach, therefore alleviating the first two problems. Problem four was fixed by adding a commercial crew vehicle to the mix. Only problem 3 is a real one, and in my opinion one of the biggest ones, though they claim DUUS could be accelerated to 2017 if funding was freed up.

Hope I answered your questions.

Yes it did...Thanks. Sad to see this endeavour heading south.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robert Thompson on 02/22/2014 06:23 am
House Science Committee plans hearing on “Mars Flyby 2021” SLS/Orion mission concept
http://www.spacepolitics.com/2014/02/21/house-science-committee-plans-hearing-on-mars-flyby-2021-slsorion-mission-concept/
"Doug Cooke is listed as a member of the “IM Advisory Board” in the Inspiration Mars architecture report released in November"
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/22/2014 03:10 pm
The effort is just a little too early. Wait another five years, there will be two or three more crew vehicles, a small already-tested Bigelow, um, closet, and the much more powerful Falcon Heavy and SLS. Plus, American year-long stays on ISS.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: M129K on 02/22/2014 03:16 pm
The effort is just a little too early. Wait another five years, there will be two or three more crew vehicles, a small already-tested Bigelow, um, closet, and the much more powerful Falcon Heavy and SLS. Plus, American year-long stays on ISS.
But in five years, it's 2019. The earliest opportunity before the 2030's is in 2021. You need to start now if you want it to happen anytime soon.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/22/2014 09:18 pm
The effort is just a little too early. Wait another five years, there will be two or three more crew vehicles, a small already-tested Bigelow, um, closet, and the much more powerful Falcon Heavy and SLS. Plus, American year-long stays on ISS.
But in five years, it's 2019. The earliest opportunity before the 2030's is in 2021. You need to start now if you want it to happen anytime soon.
I realize that, but things are majorly in flux right now. The much larger delta-v for a trip in the late 2020s may be worth it.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Comga on 02/22/2014 09:37 pm
The effort is just a little too early. Wait another five years, there will be two or three more crew vehicles, a small already-tested Bigelow, um, closet, and the much more powerful Falcon Heavy and SLS. Plus, American year-long stays on ISS.
But in five years, it's 2019. The earliest opportunity before the 2030's is in 2021. You need to start now if you want it to happen anytime soon.
I realize that, but things are majorly in flux right now. The much larger delta-v for a trip in the late 2020s may be worth it.
Things are always in flux until they are "old news".
One has to deal with this "flux" in order to break ground.
My personal opinion is that SLS, Orion, and Bigelow are not going to be useful to IM.  Mr. Tito can advocate for NASA to adopt the Mars flyby mission as their own mission, but it won't be IM and it won't be an easy sell.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 02/27/2014 10:10 am
This 2021/22 mission will have a swingby of Venus, right? How will this affect the return speed to earth? Will it be faster than the IM mission or slower?

At the senate commitee meeting where Dennis Tito presented his mission design with SLS, he showed some reentry capsule, not Oron. Likely because the speed is too high for Orion. So how about this new mission design? I'll wait and see until the hearing later today.

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 04/02/2014 07:16 pm
This is a few days late, but the Mars Society has posted the leading presentations from the Inspiration Mars student design contest.  Finalists, semifinalists, and honorable mentions are all listed:
http://www.marssociety.org/home/press/announcements/marssocietypostsinspirationmarsstudentdesignreportsonline
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 07/12/2014 01:57 am
A new article on Taber MacCallum and Jane Poynter:
http://www.wired.com/2014/07/paragon-profile/

It's more of a human interest story than anything else.  Gives some background on the couple, talks about Inspiration Mars a bit, but without mentioning anything new.  This is the most update-ish section of the article:
Quote
During recent hearings with NASA, Tito explained that he would need about $1 billion from the government over the next four or five years to develop the space launch system and other aspects of the mission. NASA was not readily willing to agree to this and they put the issue on hold, MacCallum said.

But regardless of whether Inspiration Mars is successful in 2021, Jones believes these commercial space efforts will help stir momentum and public interest in space that could ultimately help NASA build new infrastructure and convince Congress to allocate the money needed to complete missions like these.
Title: Inspiration Mars' `Water-Walls´ Explosive Ionizing Radiation Reaction
Post by: Hibernaut on 02/20/2015 02:56 pm
At first thought Inspiration Mars' `water-walls´ idea of a passive radiation shield sounds good, but at second thought it's also clear that it can't protect against high-energy galactic cosmic radiation. In fact, it makes it worse because of the secondary and tertiary radiation any material shield creates. But that's been a well known problem for a long time. Nothing new here. It's also just one latent problem, here's another: water taken beyond low-earth orbit (LOE) probably doesn't behave like water in LOE. Specifically, high energy ionizing radiation (of just 33 eV) and colliding with water molecules is also well known to result in the radiation-induced radiolysis (decomposition) of water into hydrogen peroxide. Ionization of hydrogen peroxide further decomposes into hydrogen and oxygen gas. You probably see where I'm heading. In the right mix, and maybe with a radioactive `spark´, one supposes that hydrogen and oxygen gases could become explosive!?
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Russel on 02/20/2015 03:05 pm
It would be in tiny quantities. Also if you think about it, if it were a problem, it would also be a problem in nuclear reactors.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 02/20/2015 04:37 pm
@Hibernaut

You seem to have a wrong idea about how much radiation there is. It is really very, very low. Some of it reaches the ISS. If such concerns were true the ISS would have long turned into some radioactive hell and would have been abandoned.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Hibernaut on 02/21/2015 07:00 am
Hydrogen gas production IS a problem that has to be mitigated in nuclear reactors!
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Hibernaut on 02/21/2015 07:08 am
Once you go beyond the protection of the earth's magnetosphere ionizing radiation/particles are a well investigated problem, and stands at much, much higher levels than what you'll find in low earth orbit. Where not talking just about background galactic cosmic radiation but SPEs as well.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/21/2015 07:28 am
Once you go beyond the protection of the earth's magnetosphere ionizing radiation/particles are a well investigated problem, and stands at much, much higher levels than what you'll find in low earth orbit. Where not talking just about background galactic cosmic radiation but SPEs as well.

And the amounts are known and the means to keep them to acceptable levels well understood.  The RAD instrument on the Curiosity mission encountered 0.466 Sv of all radiation types over the 253 day mission.  Inspiration Mars would experience about 0.923 Sv over it's 501 day mission with similar shielding. 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: guckyfan on 02/21/2015 07:51 am
And the amounts are known and the means to keep them to acceptable levels well understood.  The RAD instrument on the Curiosity mission encountered 0.466 Sv of all radiation types over the 253 day mission.  Inspiration Mars would experience about 0.923 Sv over it's 501 day mission with similar shielding.

The RAD instrument on Curiosity is not shielded. It was intended to measure radiation as is. Any shielding would reduce radiation exposure. But shielding would mainly be for solar radiation.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/21/2015 10:11 am
And the amounts are known and the means to keep them to acceptable levels well understood.  The RAD instrument on the Curiosity mission encountered 0.466 Sv of all radiation types over the 253 day mission.  Inspiration Mars would experience about 0.923 Sv over it's 501 day mission with similar shielding.

The RAD instrument on Curiosity is not shielded. It was intended to measure radiation as is. Any shielding would reduce radiation exposure. But shielding would mainly be for solar radiation.

On the journey to Mars Curiosity t was inside the aeroshell, which provided 10 g/cm2 of shielding in most directions.  In some directions there was up to 80 g/cm2, presumably that pointing to the cruise stage.  This is roughly equivalent to a lightly shielded crewed spacecraft.This is covered in the 2013 paper by Zeitlin et al. in Science http://www.sciencemag.org/content/340/6136/1080 
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Hibernaut on 02/21/2015 11:05 am
Several thoughts for the case against:

- those (quoted) values don't consider the possibility of solar flares and spiked in the solar wind which even considering solar cycle minimum is recognized to be unpredictable, potentially increasing the quoted doses by one to two orders of magnitude;

- irradiation of water yields hydrogen and oxygen gas which escapes the liquid. This build-up does not cease until a steady-state pressure is created, which depends on the intensity of the radiation and the temperature of the liquid; increasing temperature decreases solubility. Moreover, both hydrogen and oxygen are highly insoluble in water; hydrogen is an extremely insoluble gas in water. Furthermore, if there are any impurities in the water the evolution of gas continues well after irradiation ceases; &,

- An interesting thought, a question really, and I could be mistaken:
if incident (particle) radiation dose is proportional to the cube of the particle velocity (read that somewhere?) does that mean there might exist a sizable difference in what is experienced at the front- compared to back-end of a very fast traveling spacecraft. If indeed that might be the case, would it mean, quite ironically, that a quick transit, generally favored to minimize the radiation time-dose exposure, might actually yield a worse radiation exposure outcome...??? Could be reaching here!


Ref:
Allen, A. O. (1952). Mechanism of decomposition of water by ionizing radiations. Discuss. Faraday Soc., 12: 79-87.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/22/2015 02:29 am
At first thought Inspiration Mars' `water-walls´ idea of a passive radiation shield sounds good, but at second thought it's also clear that it can't protect against high-energy galactic cosmic radiation. In fact, it makes it worse because of the secondary and tertiary radiation any material shield creates....
That's not true except in certain circumstances. Lighter elements  absorb more dosage than they create through secondary radiation, so a water wall works while a wall of aluminum or especially lead would make things worse.

But regardless, you're more concerned about the effects of a solar storm since those would be acutely felt.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 02/22/2015 08:09 pm
Several thoughts for the case against:

- irradiation of water yields hydrogen and oxygen gas which escapes the liquid. This build-up does not cease until a steady-state pressure is created, which depends on the intensity of the radiation and the temperature of the liquid; increasing temperature decreases solubility. Moreover, both hydrogen and oxygen are highly insoluble in water; hydrogen is an extremely insoluble gas in water. Furthermore, if there are any impurities in the water the evolution of gas continues well after irradiation ceases; &,


Before you go any further, did you compare the amount of H and O that is produced by the expected radiation with the amount of dissociated H and O that occurs in any water sample, simply by way of equilibrium?

Did you quantify it at all?

You realize that even if all of the energy carried by the radiation was converted into separating water into H and O, then the total energy available for the hypothetical combustion would be equal to the total energy carried by the radiation, right?   So you can see how warm a lead brick gets in space because it is absorbing that radiation anyway.

In short, I wouldn't worry about that aspect of it too much. (oh, and you can also vent it through a membrane, just to be extra extra extra sure.  Or suck it into Palladium.)

WRT to secondary radiation, the lighter the shield material, the better.  (Lighter as in lower atomic mass nuclei)
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Russel on 02/23/2015 08:51 am
My understanding is that the majority of radiation from the sun comes in the form of protons so you need low atomic number shielding (stuff with lots of hydrogen in it). But the cosmic background is often heavier particles and for that you initially need something that's denser, then backed by something lighter to capture the secondaries. So metal/polymer skin backed by a layer of water would be good (assuming wrapping the whole thing in lead is out of the question).
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lampyridae on 02/23/2015 10:19 am
Radiation absorption is a tricky thing. The aluminium radiation shielding on ISS causes a net reduction in dosage but it's not as much as hoped (probably due to the secondary radiation effects mentioned above). Outside the magnetosphere it would make the radiation environment worse. The various cosmic ray ions and their different energies make a whole zoo of sparticles but the biggest problem is neutrons.

The current research indicates that plastics, LH2 and nanofibre hydrogen storage offer the best protection in roughly that order.

Electrostatic and magnetic shielding require quite a bit of work but there may be workable concepts for these.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Lampyridae on 02/23/2015 10:33 am
Several thoughts for the case against:

- irradiation of water yields hydrogen and oxygen gas which escapes the liquid. This build-up does not cease until a steady-state pressure is created, which depends on the intensity of the radiation and the temperature of the liquid; increasing temperature decreases solubility. Moreover, both hydrogen and oxygen are highly insoluble in water; hydrogen is an extremely insoluble gas in water. Furthermore, if there are any impurities in the water the evolution of gas continues well after irradiation ceases; &,


Before you go any further, did you compare the amount of H and O that is produced by the expected radiation with the amount of dissociated H and O that occurs in any water sample, simply by way of equilibrium?

Did you quantify it at all?

You realize that even if all of the energy carried by the radiation was converted into separating water into H and O, then the total energy available for the hypothetical combustion would be equal to the total energy carried by the radiation, right?   So you can see how warm a lead brick gets in space because it is absorbing that radiation anyway.

In short, I wouldn't worry about that aspect of it too much. (oh, and you can also vent it through a membrane, just to be extra extra extra sure.  Or suck it into Palladium.)

WRT to secondary radiation, the lighter the shield material, the better.  (Lighter as in lower atomic mass nuclei)


Hibernaut, you're comparing hydrogen production from fluxes found at the centre of a nuclear reactor or from high-level radioactive waste (enough to kill instantly) to that encountered in a SPE. If the problem was as serious as you suggest, Europa would have an oxygen atmosphere. Numbers are the difference between science/engineering and arm-waving.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Hibernaut on 02/24/2015 01:32 pm
Ok, here's some numbers of some unpredictable SPE events. One instant killer SPE event narrowly missed the Apollo 16 and 17 crews. Source NASA.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: meekGee on 02/24/2015 07:52 pm
Ok, here's some numbers of some unpredictable SPE events. One instant killer SPE event narrowly missed the Apollo 16 and 17 crews. Source NASA.

Can you convert "Killer" to SI?

The chart indicates REMs.  REMs are biologically-weighted units of energy per kg of sample.  Therefore, while this chart has numbers, it's not very helpful.

However, again, a burst that is medically dangerous barely carries any tangible energy with it.  It is fatal since it messes with your DNA, not because it roasts you. 

Therefore, any effect it might have on separating water into its constituents is negligible.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Hibernaut on 02/24/2015 09:43 pm
Thanks for your input, but the point is the radiation need only be strongly ionizing, not atom splitting, which cause radioactivity things. The ioinzation of water, whether in a drinking-cup or in one's cells will hydrolyse by radiolysis. The yield of reacting ion, atoms and moleculular species produced: hydroxyde, hydronium, proton, hydrogen peroxide, and oxygen will depend on the ionizing energy., the ionizing ration `out there´ is of sufficient  energy to trigger hydrogen evolution. If conditions are conducive and the H2/O2 mix it is technically possible to have an exploion, less you introduce anoth countermeasure.

A note on the shields, any passive shields, of water or whatever:
The US National Research Council Committee on the Evaluation of Radiation Shielding for Space Exploration (2008), i.e., beyond LOE stated:

”Materials used as shielding [i.e., including hydrogen, liquid water, Al, PET] serve no purpose except to provide their atomic and nuclear constituents as targets to interact with the incident radiation projectiles, and so either remove them from the radiation stream to which individuals are exposed or change the particles’ characteristics–energy, charge, and mass – in ways that reduce their damaging effects.”
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 10/24/2015 11:27 pm
The inspirationmars.org website is now offline, and has been so for over a week.  I suppose that finally puts a fork in it. :(

A real shame.  I was really excited when this was first announced and thought it had a real chance of getting somewhere.
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 10/24/2015 11:52 pm
My understanding is that the majority of radiation from the sun comes in the form of protons so you need low atomic number shielding (stuff with lots of hydrogen in it). But the cosmic background is often heavier particles and for that you initially need something that's denser, then backed by something lighter to capture the secondaries. So metal/polymer skin backed by a layer of water would be good (assuming wrapping the whole thing in lead is out of the question).
Actually, it's even more important to use low atomic mass shielding for cosmic rays than it is for solar radiation. Lead is pretty much the worst thing you could use for cosmic ray shielding, making things actually worse (by secondaries, as you mention). Layering things in a certain order helps, but mostly only if you HAVE to use metal. You're always better off using, say, just polyethylene rather than a mix of polyethylene and aluminum (of the same total mass), for instance, though if you HAVE to use some aluminum, there is a certain order which is superior (and I believe that is polyethylene THEN aluminum, not the other way around).
Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Hotblack Desiato on 11/04/2015 04:13 pm

- irradiation of water yields hydrogen and oxygen gas which escapes the liquid. This build-up does not cease until a steady-state pressure is created, which depends on the intensity of the radiation and the temperature of the liquid; increasing temperature decreases solubility. Moreover, both hydrogen and oxygen are highly insoluble in water; hydrogen is an extremely insoluble gas in water. Furthermore, if there are any impurities in the water the evolution of gas continues well after irradiation ceases; &,


At least this point can be easily solved.

Hydrogen and oxygen recombine to water in the presence of a platinum-sponge or another catalytically activated platinum surface. If the spaceship is propelled with a SEP, the minimal thrust should be sufficient to collect the gas and push it to the platium, where it can recombine. As this process runs constantly, it shouldn't generate much heat, and it can be easily cooled. If there is no SEP present, the ship could rotate (even one round per hour should be sufficient to drive the gas inwards). Prolonged stays in orbit should be no problem either (due to the rotation).

Title: Re: LIVE: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Announcement and Reaction Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 11/06/2015 11:48 pm
The radiation rate isn't even close enough for oxygen/hydrogen production to be any kind of concern.