Author Topic: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?  (Read 14546 times)

Offline Alpha Control

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From Aviation Week & Space Technology, by Craig Covault:

"NASA and the European Space Agency are rapidly developing a $3-billion outer planets flagship effort that could barnstorm the giant icebergs and subsurface oceans of Jupiter's moon Europa, or deliver a low-altitude imaging airship and a miniature submarine to probe the methane lakes on Saturn's moon Titan."

The potential of these proposals is quite exciting! Here's the link to the article:

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/aw041408p2.xml&headline=Dynamic%20Outer%20Planets%20Expedition%20Readied&channel=awst

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Offline simonbp

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Re: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #1 on: 04/17/2008 12:59 am »
Basically what happened is that NASA and ESA both decided around the same time last year that they wanted to do a big new outer planets mission, and then got sticker shock when the proposals came it. So, they decided to team up an split the cost (JAXA would also potentially be involved). From what I've heard (which isn't much), the Saturn mission is probably favoured, as the lower radiation allows for the system orbiter to last longer, while a small Titan (nuclear) hot-air balloon can be done properly for much less than a Europa radar mapper...

Simon ;)

Offline madscientist197

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Re: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #2 on: 04/19/2008 12:48 pm »
LOL - rapidly developing, yet they haven't even decided what they're going to do!

I must admit, I am a real fan of Europa Explorer.
John

Offline Blackstar

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Re: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #3 on: 04/19/2008 02:41 pm »
Quote
simonbp - 16/4/2008  7:59 PM

Basically what happened is that NASA and ESA both decided around the same time last year that they wanted to do a big new outer planets mission, and then got sticker shock when the proposals came it. So, they decided to team up an split the cost (JAXA would also potentially be involved). From what I've heard (which isn't much), the Saturn mission is probably favoured, as the lower radiation allows for the system orbiter to last longer, while a small Titan (nuclear) hot-air balloon can be done properly for much less than a Europa radar mapper...

That's not quite right.  NASA has had on-again/off-again plans for Europa for nearly a decade now.  Europa was identified as the top non-Mars scientific priority in the 2002 solar system decadal survey.  (The decadal survey is where the scientific community establishes its scientific priorities and NASA tries to follow these.)

There has been no funding for an outer planets mission for several years, but last year NASA funded four studies of flagship class missions: Europa Explorer, Jupiter System Orbiter, Titan and Enceladus.  You can find all four studies at the Outer Planets Assessment Group website:

http://www.lpi.usra.edu/opag/announcements.html

The Enceladus study was the weakest of the four and demonstrated that a mission there is extremely hard.  The Titan study was pretty ambitious (an orbiter, lander and balloon).  The Jupiter System Orbiter mission would end up at Ganymede after doing an extended tour of Jupiter.  The Europa study was the one with the most pedigree (i.e. previous studies) and it shows.

Everybody knew that NASA would essentially downselect to two options: Jupiter and Titan (Enceladus has recently become even more interesting with the discovery of organics there, but it's just a really tough place to reach because it's so low in Saturn's gravity well.)

There was good reason to believe last year that NASA was going to try and fund an outer planets mission.  They just had to find the money to do so.  And they knew that the Europeans were interested in doing this as well.  (In fact, that is one of the main reasons why there was a JSO mission in addition to Europa--it matched more closely with what ESA is interested in.)

They will negotiate this over the summer and the expectation is that there will be an agreement by a big ESA meeting in November.

You are right that Europa is hard.  The radiation there is brutal.  JPL in the past few years claims to have made great strides in a) correctly modeling the radiation threat at Jupiter, and b) developing rad-hard electronics.  The newest concepts for a Europa mission also spend a year or two circling Jupiter collecting data before heading to Europa, better satisfying the interests of the Europeans (and also keeping the radiation dose low).

As for which mission will win?  Although I'm pretty familiar with the situation in general, I think it is a toss-up.  The people pushing Titan have been making a lot of noise.  They argue that Titan is more interesting and Europa is too hard.  I think that one thing working against them, however, is that they keep proposing overly ambitious Titan missions.  Another thing working against them is that the decadal survey said do Europa.

Why do this?  The goal of all of these missions is looking at/for organics.  We want to figure out what the early stages of biology look like.  Europa has a lot of water and energy, Titan has organics, and Enceladus has organics as well.  They are all interesting subjects.

One final comment: I'll have to go do some research, but the Aviation Week article did not match with my understanding of these mission concepts.  If you read the NASA-sponsored flagship studies, they are not what Aviation Week is talking about.  So either AWST has adopted the European proposals (which I admit to being unfamiliar with), the mission concepts have changed since last fall (unlikely in my view), or AWST is just plain wrong and has talked to the wrong people (something that they do from time to time).

Offline HarryM

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Re: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #4 on: 04/19/2008 03:31 pm »
Have they developed/demonstrated a method for getting through Europa's ice crust? W/O that being developed and tested (maybe at Lake Vostock or someplace similar) seems like Titan would be easier. We have landed there already, after all.

Offline Analyst

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RE: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #5 on: 04/19/2008 03:50 pm »
Landing on Europe and penetrating the ice is beyond the scope and budget of this mission. This is about a Europa orbiter, maybe (but unlikely) with a simple impactor.

Jupiter/Europa vs. Saturn/Titan: The first would be the logical step. Cassini is still active providing new data to be analyzed and probably will so well into the next decade. A new flagship could not use this new knowledge in its (instrument) design. Galileo data on the other hand are analyzed. The Jupiter system should therefore get the next flagship. Besides, Galileo's HGA problem left many things unanswered.

Analyst

Offline Eerie

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Re: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #6 on: 04/19/2008 04:53 pm »
Best thing would be doing both.  :)

Titan looks easier, though. But what I`d like to see most is Uranus or Neptune mission. Give me Neptune, people, those cloud are lovely.

Offline gospacex

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Re: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #7 on: 04/19/2008 05:29 pm »
Quote
HarryM - 19/4/2008  10:31 AM
Have they developed/demonstrated a method for getting through Europa's ice crust? W/O that being developed and tested (maybe at Lake Vostock or someplace similar) seems like Titan would be easier. We have landed there already, after all.

A balloon on Titan with nuclear power source? Wow. If this thing manages to survive for a few months, imagine the amount of photos it can send back! I like it.

Offline Analyst

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RE: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #8 on: 04/19/2008 05:38 pm »
In an ideal world ...

But realistically the budget is simply not there for anything really spectacular (multiple balloons or landers). Jupiter has severe radiation, Saturn is more than 4 years more distant. Orbiting Titan without aerobreaking is very challanging (delta v), and aerobreaking is off the table. In the Jupiter system you have 4 bodies for gravity play, given some time entering orbit arround one moon is less costly in terms of delta v.

But as I said, scientific rationale: Cassini is still and will for quite some time give us answers and new question. As for Jupiter: only questions we have.

Analyst

PS: For some time at the beginning of this century there were "plans" for:
- at least one mission to Mars every 26 months,
- one Discovery mission every 18 months,
- three New Frontiers missions per decade,
- one big or two "small" flagships per decade,
- regular MIDEX (Delta II class science satellites),
- even more regular SMEX (Pegasus class science satellites),
- plus other solar and astrophysics missions like SDO,
- earth science ...
Right now we are launching missions selected at this time. What matters me more is the future, after 2010 (And the manned program is not locking better after 2010). Who ate the budget?

Offline Jim

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Re: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #9 on: 04/19/2008 05:44 pm »
mission ops and launch vehicles

Edit:

also don't forget EOS missions

Offline Analyst

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Re: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #10 on: 04/19/2008 05:50 pm »
Quote
Jim - 19/4/2008  7:44 PM

1) mission ops and launch vehicles

Edit:

2) also don't forget EOS missions

1) Launch vehicles *should* be the same, adjusted for inflation. I know they arn't. Add human space flight (RTF and CxP).
2) I forgot. Added.

Analyst

Offline Jim

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Re: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #11 on: 04/19/2008 05:53 pm »
current mission operations are higher with all missions that are still operating.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #12 on: 04/19/2008 06:56 pm »
Quote
gospacex - 19/4/2008  12:29 PM
A balloon on Titan with nuclear power source? Wow. If this thing manages to survive for a few months, imagine the amount of photos it can send back! I like it.

RTG (or more likely a Sterling RG).

There are several proposals, both balloon and airship.  Balloon is easier, but not controllable.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #13 on: 04/19/2008 06:59 pm »
Quote
HarryM - 19/4/2008  10:31 AM

Have they developed/demonstrated a method for getting through Europa's ice crust? W/O that being developed and tested (maybe at Lake Vostock or someplace similar) seems like Titan would be easier. We have landed there already, after all.

The Europa mission (go download the flagship study, which is a big file, by the way) is a radar orbiter.  The objective is to study and measure the ice in order to build an understanding of the ocean and how it moves and flows.

The radiation will burn out any spacecraft within a couple of months.

I think a lander is maybe 30-40 years away.  A cryobot to go through the ice is probably 40-60 years away, if not later.  It is very hard to do. Very hard.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #14 on: 04/19/2008 07:00 pm »
Quote
Jim - 19/4/2008  12:53 PM

current mission operations are higher with all missions that are still operating.

Not sure which post you're responding to, presumably the one about all the plans for lots of missions?

The key thing is that those plans were made when we were operating under very optimistic cost estimates.  Part of this was due to the faster cheaper better philosophy.  Also, there was an assumption of more money for science.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #15 on: 04/19/2008 07:08 pm »
Quote
Jim - 19/4/2008  12:44 PM

mission ops and launch vehicles

Edit:

also don't forget EOS missions

It's a more complex issue than that.  To some extent, the Constellation and shuttle and station programs ate part of the budget.  All the technology development money went over there.  One could argue that the scientists were promised and asked for more than they got.  But they also have blame to share for their own cost overruns, like James Webb Space Telescope.

Offline Thorny

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RE: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #16 on: 04/19/2008 07:42 pm »
Quote
Analyst - 19/4/2008  12:38 PM

But as I said, scientific rationale: Cassini is still and will for quite some time give us answers and new question. As for Jupiter: only questions we have.

Don't forget Juno is coming soon. That Jupiter already has a new (relatively modest) mission in the works might be the factor that gives the next flagship to Saturn/Titan.


Offline Jim

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Re: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #17 on: 04/19/2008 08:05 pm »
Quote
Blackstar - 19/4/2008  3:00 PM

Quote
Jim - 19/4/2008  12:53 PM

current mission operations are higher with all missions that are still operating.

Not sure which post you're responding to, presumably the one about all the plans for lots of missions?

The key thing is that those plans were made when we were operating under very optimistic cost estimates.  Part of this was due to the faster cheaper better philosophy.  Also, there was an assumption of more money for science.

FBC means that there are many spacecraft still operating and the money to operate them is taking away from new developments.  With SMD's budget flat, these costs and higher LV costs are reducing the number of new missions

Offline Analyst

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RE: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #18 on: 04/19/2008 08:44 pm »
Quote
Thorny - 19/4/2008  9:42 PM

Don't forget Juno is coming soon. That Jupiter already has a new (relatively modest) mission in the works might be the factor that gives the next flagship to Saturn/Titan.

Don't forget Juno is all about Jupiter itself, not about the very interesting moons.

Analyst

Offline Blackstar

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RE: New US/ESA Flagship missions to the Outer Planets?
« Reply #19 on: 04/20/2008 12:51 am »
Quote
Thorny - 19/4/2008  2:42 PM

Quote
Analyst - 19/4/2008  12:38 PM

But as I said, scientific rationale: Cassini is still and will for quite some time give us answers and new question. As for Jupiter: only questions we have.

Don't forget Juno is coming soon. That Jupiter already has a new (relatively modest) mission in the works might be the factor that gives the next flagship to Saturn/Titan.

Doubtful.  They really do fundamentally different things and the community looks at them differently.  Juno is really a mission to measure the magnetosphere and the atmosphere of Jupiter and it does nothing with the moons. Even its atmospheric science is narrow.  That does not mean, however, that it is lower importance in its narrow area.  Juno will actually answer some very fundamental questions about the formation of Jupiter and by extension the formation of the solar system.

A flagship mission to Europa, on the other hand, is intended to answer an entirely different set of questions.  It is not really interested in how Jupiter or Europa became the way they are now, it would focus on the details of what they are now.

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