Author Topic: Predictions 2015  (Read 53739 times)

Offline kch

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #20 on: 12/23/2014 09:10 pm »
(Are we allowed to add to these before 1 Jan?)

Only if you want it to qualify as a pre-diction ("speaking before") -- anything added after 31 Dec is merely a diction;)

Offline Bubbinski

Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #21 on: 12/23/2014 09:49 pm »
Yes jgoldader you and anyone else can add to the predictions before 1/1. 
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline nadreck

Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #22 on: 12/23/2014 09:58 pm »
The Good

11 F9V1.1 make orbit payloads successfully, 4 cores are successfully recovered

1 FH flies successfully

1 F9 Core flies a second time with a highly publicized payload that has little commercial value but great public appeal

SpaceX announces plans for 2nd barge, barge landings planned to be the normal recovery process

Dragon abort tests fly successfully

SpaceX ends 2015 with >60 launches on its manifest

Dragonfly flies and SpaceX starts a new PR initiative on test craft and test bed activity that says it will be more visible, but also is meant to keep anomalies from being bad PR.

> 100 orbital launches in 2015 and indications for increased activity in 2016 and 2017

1 new manned space project is announced by some organization Government or commercial that has never announced such a plan before

ULA has a good year for its launches with no mishaps on commercial birds

I agree with Prober reanalysis of old data will make big news and I am betting that this will be in more than one area (say exoplanetary and previously gathered Mars data).

I don't expect any more data from Philea but the Rosetta mission will still deliver some more great data

I expect Dawn data from Ceres to be tantalizing but not satisfying (at least to me) lots of call from scientific community for follow up mission

New Horizons will give us new data, it will be hyped, but the real value is that we know we can get that sort of data from a probe that far out.

NASA announces 2 more New Frontiers missions (and Jupiter Trojans flyby is one of them)

Senator John McCain manages to get some positive results for accelerating commercial crew (or at least keeping it from decelerating)



The Bad

Russian launches plagued with problems

High profile ULA failure on a military launch

India suffers a set back with a test failure


The Ugly

ULA and Blue Origin have strategic differences and there is some talk of a lawsuit but really it adds up to delays in any sort of RD180 replacement and that another year has been lost.

There is another orbiting satellite issue either with debris or causing debris that make people nervous about the Kessler syndrome all over again

Geopolitical threats put a lot of useless rhetoric about America's space capabilities in the media again, though nothing actually changes in 2015 (Russia still carries astronauts to and from ISS and never actually says they won't in the future though certainly comments like the trampoline one will be made again)

North Korea makes at least one more attempt to put something in orbit and makes both conciliatory and threatening statements framing its purpose.
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline hektor

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #23 on: 12/23/2014 11:04 pm »

Europe
* An ever-worsening deadlock between France and Germany begins to seriously impede the development phase of Ariane-6;
* At least one payload is lost whilst flying on a Soyuz-Fregat with the cause being unequivocally due to poor quality control on the part of the Russian vendor;
* The advanced re-entry vehicle program hits a sandbank and is postponed indefinitely due to political, bureaucratic and engineering issues;
* SNC announce firm plans to launch DreamChaser on a crew-rated Ariane-6 derivative; different parts of ESA confirm or deny the story.



ARV is already dead. ESA chose to develop a service module for Orion instead.

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #24 on: 12/24/2014 12:56 am »
We've already begun seeing fewer launches webcast and broadcast.  At some point that will mean that a failure will occur on a major launch so that we'll never see the replays.  It will seem as if it never happened, like the Falcon 1 and Safir explosions, or the Dream Chaser crash, or the first Kuaizhou launch.  Something like that could happen in 2015, but it is a hit or miss proposition.

Pluto will be big news, as expected, but Pluto/Charon, the way they dance as a two-planetoid system spinning around every 6+ days, will be the big revelation to the general public. 

Maybe we'll find out what ULA is planning for NGLV.

There will be more news about SLS as RS-25 tests and core hardware assembly begin.

China's new launch site, launch vehicles, and its plans for even bigger rockets will also be in the news.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 12/30/2014 04:47 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline sublimemarsupial

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #25 on: 12/24/2014 01:57 am »
We've already begun seeing fewer launches webcast and broadcast.  At some point that will mean that a failure will occur on a major launch so that we'll never see the replays.  It will seem as if it never happened, like the Falcon 1.

You keep repeating that SpaceX is hiding the falcon 1 failures and it simply isn't true. You can find the falcon 1 flight 1 failure video within 10 seconds on youtube, and the other failures are easy to find as well.


Offline edkyle99

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #26 on: 12/24/2014 05:21 am »
You keep repeating that SpaceX is hiding the falcon 1 failures ...
I've never said that it hid the failures.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 12/24/2014 05:22 am by edkyle99 »

Online vt_hokie

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #27 on: 12/24/2014 05:27 am »
I predict that despite additional schedule slips and cost overruns, and even without any clearly defined mission or purpose, Charlie Bolden will remain super excited over SLS and Orion!

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #28 on: 12/24/2014 07:38 am »
Falcon makes 9 flights.
Spacex recovers a booster.
Falcon heavy flies.
Dragon V2 makes an abort test.

LM starts work on Athena III

SNC performs some successful drop tests of Dream Chaser with no landing gear malfunctions and they announce they are partnering with the ESA or JAXA and considering using Ariane 5 or the HIIB.
Mini DC is considered on other LVs such as ESA Soyuz and even Athena III.
Paul Allen buys a controlling stake in SNC.

Stratolauncher is reviled and taxis test begin at the end of the year.
OSC begins work on Pegasus II

Boeing makes an Abort test of the CST-100.
The cargo variant becomes more like Cygnus.

Planetary Resources launches their first sucessful Akyd spacecraft.

LM pitches Orion on Delta IV as a commercial crew option.
It doesn't sound as crazy as it used to.

Lynx begins taxi tests with a powered flight by the end of the year.

We see more from Firefly Space Systems.

SS2 returns to flight.

Anagra flies a few more times.
PPTS makes an abort test.
Russia may launch a PPTS test article into orbit by the end of the year but this will be a very crude test similar to the ISRO capsule test except it'll go into orbit.

ULA expands on the NGLV.

ARJ pitches a faster RD-180 replacement.

More work is done on DSH and SLS.

ATK does several SRB ground tests for SLS and Pegasus II etc.

NASA admits they will be returning to the Moon before Mars.

« Last Edit: 12/19/2015 04:05 am by Patchouli »

Offline tonyq

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #29 on: 12/24/2014 01:08 pm »

China
* There are one or two crewed flights this year;
* Crewed spaceflight plans continue to be ambitious but lacking in funding and detail;
 

Not a prediction, but a fact. There will be no Chinese crewed flights in 2015  :-\

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #30 on: 12/24/2014 08:28 pm »

Europe
* An ever-worsening deadlock between France and Germany begins to seriously impede the development phase of Ariane-6;
* At least one payload is lost whilst flying on a Soyuz-Fregat with the cause being unequivocally due to poor quality control on the part of the Russian vendor;
* The advanced re-entry vehicle program hits a sandbank and is postponed indefinitely due to political, bureaucratic and engineering issues;
* SNC announce firm plans to launch DreamChaser on a crew-rated Ariane-6 derivative; different parts of ESA confirm or deny the story.



ARV is already dead. ESA chose to develop a service module for Orion instead.

Buying Orion or DreamChaser probably would be the quickest way for the ESA to get it's own capability to launch crews into space.

Though if Dream Chaser flies on an ESA rocket it'll probably fly on Araine 5 first since Araine 6 is still several years away.
Second would be mini DC on Soyuz out of Guiana.
Which might actually be the easiest and cheapest option of all since Soyuz is already crew rated.
There  would be some irony seeing a state of the art spacecraft riding on a booster that had it's origins in the 1950s.
Though there is little of the original R7 in the Soyuz that flies today.
« Last Edit: 12/24/2014 08:35 pm by Patchouli »

Offline JazzFan

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #31 on: 12/25/2014 01:56 am »

Europe
* An ever-worsening deadlock between France and Germany begins to seriously impede the development phase of Ariane-6;
* At least one payload is lost whilst flying on a Soyuz-Fregat with the cause being unequivocally due to poor quality control on the part of the Russian vendor;
* The advanced re-entry vehicle program hits a sandbank and is postponed indefinitely due to political, bureaucratic and engineering issues;
* SNC announce firm plans to launch DreamChaser on a crew-rated Ariane-6 derivative; different parts of ESA confirm or deny the story.



ARV is already dead. ESA chose to develop a service module for Orion instead.

Buying Orion or DreamChaser probably would be the quickest way for the ESA to get it's own capability to launch crews into space.

Though if Dream Chaser flies on an ESA rocket it'll probably fly on Araine 5 first since Araine 6 is still several years away.
Second would be mini DC on Soyuz out of Guiana.
Which might actually be the easiest and cheapest option of all since Soyuz is already crew rated.
There  would be some irony seeing a state of the art spacecraft riding on a booster that had it's origins in the 1950s.
Though there is little of the original R7 in the Soyuz that flies today.
Baby steps, and ESA has no need for Orion.  DC accomplishes achieving manned space if that is still a goal.  Orion is just overkill and over reaching plans that could not be achieved 110 to 15 years ago.

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #32 on: 12/25/2014 02:38 am »
I mostly mention Orion because they're building the SM which means they'd know the details on integration of the vehicle.

A commercial vehicle would be a lot cheaper.

Offline Danderman

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #33 on: 12/25/2014 03:01 am »
Well, time for me to make a fool of myself again:

SpaceX: Less successful orbital launches in 2015 than 2014.

Falcon Heavy slips to the future; as a side note, I continue to predict that FH will never fly a 50 ton payload to orbit, as the crossfeed system will never be implemented. Before there is a requirement for a 50 ton capability, SpaceX will be on to the next generation system, and so spending development cash on FH will be seen as throwing money at a dead end.

ESA: More discussion of a crewed vehicle but nothing happens.

China: Lots of talk of future great plans, but nothing really significant happens in 2015 in orbit, as far as we are concerned, although there will be loads of military launches.

Russia: slips due to the ruble crisis, but the mainline programs continue with a 90 percent launch success rate.  MLM will slip to 2018 on the program management system, but not officially.

NASA: ARM will slip more than one year into the future. SLS will not slip into 2019 officially in 2015.

Commercial: slow down and one last reboot at Stratolauncher.

VG: More engine troubles, nothing reaches 100 km in 2015.

Bigelow: will build buildings, develop subscale flight models, and build mockups on the ground.  Lots of talk of commercial space platforms, but nothing much actually happens in 2015.

No one will successfully fly a new CubeSAT launcher to orbit in 2015.

Many more commercial space startups will be unveiled in 2015. 90 percent will be gone in 5 years, similar to the restaurant business.  Some of these space startups will describe new applications for space that have not previously been considered.

CubeSATs will get bigger, and so will the launcher accommodations.  Someone will change a CubeSAT orbit using an onboard propulsion system in 2015.

Most of my predictions will fail to come to true in 2015.
« Last Edit: 12/25/2014 03:08 pm by Danderman »

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #34 on: 12/25/2014 09:57 am »

Europe
* An ever-worsening deadlock between France and Germany begins to seriously impede the development phase of Ariane-6;
* At least one payload is lost whilst flying on a Soyuz-Fregat with the cause being unequivocally due to poor quality control on the part of the Russian vendor;
* The advanced re-entry vehicle program hits a sandbank and is postponed indefinitely due to political, bureaucratic and engineering issues;
* SNC announce firm plans to launch DreamChaser on a crew-rated Ariane-6 derivative; different parts of ESA confirm or deny the story.

ARV is already dead. ESA chose to develop a service module for Orion instead.

Actually, I was talking about the IXV experimental vehicle. As for the ESM, that's just business to offset the cost of using the ISS and, in any case, will probably will only be used a few times because of political issues in the US.
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Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #35 on: 12/25/2014 10:07 am »
I'm young, and thus biased to be a space optimist. However:


- At least one Russian rocket will experience a RUD next year as a possible by-effect of the rouble crash heavily stressing the industry, or just the general rationale that Russian rocketry doesn't have the safety record it once possessed. However, this will neither kill the industry nor render them any more than marginally uncompetetive through 2015. They may bleed components of their market share to the obvious competitors regardless, however. Any of the proto-plans to split the russian segment into a new space station will not come to fruition - unless the Russian government feels excessively provoked by the USA within the orbital sphere. NPO Energomash will lose a small, none-critical profit portion. The powers-that-be in general will continue to regard reusability as a none-consideration, with a few possible voices of dissent. With inferior resources, the Russians will do their utmost to appear to be in-tow with the US space program, especially regarding BEO. Actual hard results will not be forthcoming with the present budget allocated to them.

- United Launch Alliance will continue to be (deservedly) popular with the United States Airforce, NRO, etcetera. They will continue to take the "no moonshots" approach and will find methods of staying in-line with what the market/US gov demands of them as 2014 has already evidenced (I.E: BE-4). ULA will be under continuing pressure to become more progressive, which they will flex to. However, as Robobeat has already stated, 2015 will be the last year ULA sends more rockets into the sky than SpaceX.

- Japan will contemplate reusability and have a few scanty discussions over the viability of Dream chaser, along with putting ever more probes downrange. Japan will have a respectably good year.

- India will have a wonderful  2015 to chain after the impressive run that they've had this year, and will start to be less tongue-in-cheek over their news coverage. Their manned program will continue to receive funding along with future planetary science missions. They will continue on their launcher development roadmap, per planning.

- China will continue working on the next generation of the Tiangong Space Station, CZ-9, Lunar program etc, and will inevitably make some announcements.  Best of luck to them; I don't consider myself well informed enough over China's space program to pass judgement there.

- Iran will make some noise at some point, but not a lot beyond.

- North Korea will test some ballistics, and throw up a sat.

- South Korea will be uneventful.

- Britain will be uneventful but will probably have another startup appearing somewhere. Virgin Galactic will survive any and all knock-backs from this year, but probably will not reach the Karman line repetitively until well into 2016.

- NASA: Will gain incremental budget increases and will start to bloom accordingly.

- SLS: Will continue to be an exceptionally chaotic program sucking the lifeblood out of more important fields, but will surely gain some set payloads justifying the existence of the launcher. SLS will get the money it needs to progress into a flight article by 2018.

- Orion: Will remain hog-tied to SLS.


SpaceX: I don't even know where to start with this one...  ;).

1) Continued improvements to their launch rate, around the guessed 0.5 increase.

2) Successful abort testing of the V2.

3) Successful stage recovery and re-use. Inexpensive refurbishment, assuming refurbishment is required at all.

4) Further news regarding Raptor.

5) Further speeches suggesting at MCT features - our picture of the end product will become more coherent, but still far from concrete.

6) Further progress on the internet satellite constellation design.

7) Some degree of talks with Bigelow.

8) ASDS version two?????

9) Significant reduction in F9 launch costs and/or FH debut.

10) Something absolutely nutty and wonderful we haven't even thought of yet (well, they announce something new by the year, so...).


Edit:

I've left out all the SpaceX items I feel are definites.
« Last Edit: 12/25/2014 10:12 am by The Amazing Catstronaut »
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Offline hkultala

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #36 on: 12/25/2014 11:35 am »
NASA:

Billions are used for SLS development, but nothing major to report about it

SpaceX:

First stage will launch succesfully to sea platform
Elon wants to land first stage to florida but does not get a permit to do it yet.
One first stage engine failure leading to longer burn of other engines and not landing of the first stage.
Falcon Heavy will launch succesfully, but without crossfeed.
Dragon V2 launch pad and 1st stage abort tests successful

Orbital:

Will launch Cygnus on Atlas V to ISS.
Antares II not yet operational.
More information of the Stratolaunch rocket

ULA:

Some succesful Atlas V and Delta IV(H) launches. No failures.
Atlas with BE-4 is officially named Atlas VI and more details of it are released.

Russia:

Angara 1.2 and 5 will launch payloads successfully
Putin will speak more about Russia leaving ISS and making own space station and moon base.
But no actual technical progress towars these.
One failed russian launch, either upper stage of any rocket or NK-33 of Sojuz 2-1v.

Europe:

More arguing over Ariane 6.
Steady slow progress with Skylon.
All Ariane V launches successful, but not very profitable

China:

Steady development of their new heavy rockets

India:

GSLV Mk.III will deliver payload to orbit



Offline Ronpur50

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #37 on: 12/25/2014 12:22 pm »
SpaceX flies 8 missions, all succeed.
Lands two cores on a barge successfully, but one topples when  the barge shifts.  But it is good enough to prove to the FAA that they can do it on land, so plans are made to do it at the Cape in 2016.
Falcon Heavy rolls to the pad in December, but launches next January.
Pad Abort works.

NASA, Curiosity finds a work around for it's wheel, gets moving better, but has more interesting discoveries coming.
Opportunity finally goes silent.  I will cry that day.
Congress decides to fund Orion and SLS more, and Commercial Space gets a boost as well.

Still do not see a Boeing capsule yet.

ULA continues on time with no issues.

All Russian vehicles leave the pad successfully but one upper stage goes bad, leaving the payload in the wrong orbit.

ISS is officially extended by all partners to 2024.

VG gets SS2 ready to fly, but no powered flights, only drop tests.

NO LAUNCH EXPLOSIONS AT ALL!!

I am hoping for a good year!

On a personal note, I renew my KSC Year Pass, and meet some NSFers under Atlantis!
I build two more concept Mars mission models, and build some flying model rockets again!
« Last Edit: 12/25/2014 12:23 pm by Ronpur50 »

Offline Prober

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #38 on: 12/25/2014 08:07 pm »
Copenhagen Suborbitals:  The Worlds eyes will turn in amazement to this small, low cost program if a major success is achieved.  Each failure makes this firm stronger. They enter 2015 with a 70/30 chance of a major success.

India: while difficulties crop up their commitments build on the successes in 2014.  2015 will be a good year.

Orbital: Long term engine replacement program runs into obstacles unforeseen.  3rd engine replacement becomes the order of the day.   Face saving requires renaming, into a new launch system.

Had this one for some time but only comfortable posting now.

Beginning of the End: 1) Cheap Labor as a driver.....all manufacturing spectrums.  Engineers Rule :)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33141.msg1310136#msg1310136

1) saying the same thing 1-18-2015  http://tinyurl.com/ktmf349  Say Goodbye to made in china.

"Machines that cost more than $100,000 a decade ago are now selling for $1,299.

And they can now print with more than 99 different materials. Not just high quality plastics, many of which are completely recyclable (like milk jugs) or biodegradable. But also some of the most durable and useful physical materials we use in the "analog" world, like wood, glass, rubber, steel, and concrete. "


Edit: add End 1) confirm
« Last Edit: 01/18/2015 10:32 am by Prober »
2017 - Everything Old is New Again.
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Offline Clyde

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Re: Predictions 2015
« Reply #39 on: 12/25/2014 08:54 pm »

Europe
* An ever-worsening deadlock between France and Germany begins to seriously impede the development phase of Ariane-6;

Nice post.
I was curious about this Ariane 6 point, I thought they were passed the Ariane 6 deadlock, see eg.
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/12/02/esa-ministers-agree-build-ariane-6-vegac-continue-iss-support/

or are there still issues?

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