Author Topic: SLS searching for missions to solve flight rate dilemma  (Read 69066 times)

Online Chris Bergin

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Offline OpsAnalyst

Nice job, Chris, folding in alot of information.

We also addressed this topic in our National Research Council "Pathways to Exploration" report.  In addition the NASA Advisory Committee (NAC) discussed it a couple of weeks ago.  Timely article.

Offline PDJennings

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Re: SLS searching for missions to solve flight rate dilemma
« Reply #2 on: 08/20/2014 11:10 pm »
It always surprises me that no one talks about using SLS to launch a replacement space station, perhaps in the late 2020s, made of about 3 pieces instead of 30.  The current ISS is not going to last forever, and now would be a good time to have the debate about replacing it or not.  It would be a shame to retreat from having a human presence in orbit after many years of continuous operations.

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: SLS searching for missions to solve flight rate dilemma
« Reply #3 on: 08/20/2014 11:21 pm »
It always surprises me that no one talks about using SLS to launch a replacement space station, perhaps in the late 2020s, made of about 3 pieces instead of 30.  The current ISS is not going to last forever, and now would be a good time to have the debate about replacing it or not.  It would be a shame to retreat from having a human presence in orbit after many years of continuous operations.

NASA (i.e. Gerstenmaier) have said that the ISS is the last space station they intend to own, which is likely why you have noticed no one talking about a new space station.

The only government-related space station that seems to be likely next would be what is called the L2 Gateway, but without a acknowledged and funded plan to do human space exploration beyond LEO there is no need to build such a station.  Hence the lack of payloads for the SLS...
« Last Edit: 08/20/2014 11:28 pm by Coastal Ron »
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline mr. mark

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Re: SLS searching for missions to solve flight rate dilemma
« Reply #4 on: 08/20/2014 11:29 pm »
I think the space station market will most likely be cornered by Bigelow Aerospace in the next few years and those will be launching on private launchers. No need for SLS involvement as the US and other countries can lease them out. I have a feeling demands could change based on the politics of the day. The Moon isn't too far away politically speaking.

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: SLS searching for missions to solve flight rate dilemma
« Reply #5 on: 08/20/2014 11:49 pm »
It's interesting to watch what is going on with the SLS.  It's really a lesson in how our government works, or not depending on your viewpoint.

I applaud the coverage that NSF provides of this topic, and it makes me wonder why there isn't more discussion of it in Congress?  There is certainly a lot of money at stake here, both in what we're spending to build the SLS and Orion and also in the amount of money that will be needed to build the payloads and operate the missions that they are supposed to support.  If we're talking one launch a year, that's a lot of funding that's needed.

Yet Congress is pretty quiet about the SLS.  Yes, so is the Administration, but regardless your views on who should be proffering uses for the SLS, Congress doesn't seem to be too worried about the lack of any plans.

But time is running out to fund, propose, award, build, test and get ready payloads for the first operational SLS flight, which would likely be around 2021.  It took 7 years from proposal to launch for the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), and that is not really a complicated payload (it's only 0.9mt) compared to what are likely 70-105mt payloads that the SLS is supposed to lift to LEO.  And since the proposed FY15 NASA budget does not yet contain any funding for SLS payloads or missions, we'll be less than 7 years out from a FY21 SLS mission.

So urgency is starting to build up, because as this article pointed out there are safety concerns for flight rates, and it's pretty apparent today that we'll be impacted by them in 2021.

Yet there is no political urgency that is apparent.

If the experience Obama has had with the ARRM proposal is any guide, I think it's unlikely we'll see the Administration propose any big programs that use the SLS, and there are political considerations that support that (i.e. Republican's bashing Obama for "big government" spending).  So that leaves NASA out.

So who is going to propose and guide funding for a series of missions that use the SLS, and the Orion too?

It's not apparent to me.  Does anyone have any guesses who will?
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Lar

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Re: SLS searching for missions to solve flight rate dilemma
« Reply #6 on: 08/21/2014 01:00 am »
This is not an SLS or government bashing thread. Comment on the article or make suggestions for interesting payloads but no bashing. None.

Some trimming has occured and more will occur if the thread doesn't stay on topic.
« Last Edit: 08/21/2014 01:06 am by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

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Re: SLS searching for missions to solve flight rate dilemma
« Reply #7 on: 08/21/2014 01:10 am »
So who is going to propose and guide funding for a series of missions that use the SLS, and the Orion too?

It's not apparent to me.  Does anyone have any guesses who will?

I'd like to see the teams that do the decadal science mission planning take  a crack at it from the perspective of "you have so many SLS launches available in 2020-2030, give us a list with rough costs of the best science mssions for them" . I expect OpsAnalyst and Blackstar can explain why that's not a realistic wish, but I would think those guys know better than anyone what some good missions would be.

In so doing I would NOT like to see currently planned stuff get deleted.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

What to do with a big ol' rocket..... Oh, Here's a thought.

How about....

MARS DIRECT.

Mars Direct?

Oh, Mars Semi-direct. That works too.

Mars Uber-Direct?

Oh, mars in a directional Manner.

Mars Direct.
« Last Edit: 08/21/2014 01:27 am by Sam Hassall »

Offline Bubbinski

Very good article as usual Chris.

If a once a year cadence is needed, could we see EM-1 in 2018, ARRM 2019, EM-2 2020, Europa probe 2021?  That would be an intriguing manifest that could occupy the SLS program while the powers that be decide on a forward path for NASA.

Edit: if it's possible to have the Europa probe ready in 2020 and have EM-2 fly in 2021 that would give SLS 3 launches before carrying people.  Maybe a more realistic plan (assuming funds go through for a Europa probe that is)?
« Last Edit: 08/21/2014 01:39 am by Bubbinski »
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Online robertross

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Re: SLS searching for missions to solve flight rate dilemma
« Reply #10 on: 08/21/2014 01:36 am »
This is all very disconcerting (not that it is all that unexpected): the United States cannot afford BEO exploration at this time. Even bringing ESA into the fray to supply the SM for Orion, it cannot seems to make ends meet.

Perhaps some in government hoped the economy would have recovered by now, but I feel we are on the verge of a 2008 repeat.

Missions were always going to be the hardest part. The initial thrust to retain some key workforce personnel, and then the re-build & re-model of key facilities & infrastructure is always important. Yet without a long term 'goal' that has support AND funding, this rocket system is facing a rather tall brick wall.

A lunar lander is in the billions. Then you have all the ancilliary requirements for the mission. Then what?

Starting with an asteroid mission? Lots of new requirements. Very technical, very bold, but also risky to prove itself. A good gauge would be to see what Rosetta's hit rate is on their blog site. I certainly haven't seen much interest in the media.

The real 'goal' is Mars, but I fear that without proper funding of the rocket & sustained flight rate itself, Mars will always be '20', '30' or '50' years in the future.

Offline RonM

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Re: SLS searching for missions to solve flight rate dilemma
« Reply #11 on: 08/21/2014 01:54 am »
If NASA is looking at maintaining a flight rate and it will already be paid for in the budget, then the SLS program can offer planetary sciences a "free lift" into space.

Online robertross

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Re: SLS searching for missions to solve flight rate dilemma
« Reply #12 on: 08/21/2014 02:16 am »
If NASA is looking at maintaining a flight rate and it will already be paid for in the budget, then the SLS program can offer planetary sciences a "free lift" into space.


The problem with that sentiment is that spacecraft often take many years to develop. So a 'stop gap' measure now to maintain flight rate may in fact be wasted if they are enbolden enough to go after a destination and require that 'once-a-year' launch rate. By the time it comes around, you have a scheduling conflict.

Plus, there is no such thing as a 'free lift' into space, and certainly not for the sciences.
Blackstar has gone over that in the Europa (and other science) threads.

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: SLS searching for missions to solve flight rate dilemma
« Reply #13 on: 08/21/2014 02:37 am »
If a once a year cadence is needed, could we see EM-1 in 2018, ARRM 2019, EM-2 2020, Europa probe 2021?

My assumption would be that the "at least once per year" flight rate that Gerstenmaier has talked about applies once the SLS becomes operational, not during it's test phase.

Quote
if it's possible to have the Europa probe ready in 2020 and have EM-2 fly in 2021 that would give SLS 3 launches before carrying people.  Maybe a more realistic plan (assuming funds go through for a Europa probe that is)?

Assuming enough funding is available, just about anything is possible.  But as the FY15 NASA budget is already approved through the various committees, the amount of time left to get such a mission ready is pretty short and would likely require a lot of support in Congress.  And that would come from...?
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Online butters

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Re: SLS searching for missions to solve flight rate dilemma
« Reply #14 on: 08/21/2014 03:21 am »
The irony is that NASA spent so much of its payloads budget on JWST only to allow it to launch on Ariane 5. It's difficult enough for NASA to manage the lopsided ratio of funding for SLS vs. payloads without letting their scarce payloads ride on other launch vehicles. If NASA is going to make this work, most of their flagship payloads must launch on SLS.

Offline su27k

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Re: SLS searching for missions to solve flight rate dilemma
« Reply #15 on: 08/21/2014 03:37 am »
There're plenty of missions, if you sell a ride on SLS for $1 with a suitable penalty fee for non-delivery, I'm sure potential buyers would line up outside NASA. What is lacking are politically correct missions, the ones that can justify the money spent on this thing and doesn't make congress look like a fool.

The missions I would like to see: 1. Give a free ride to Inspiration Mars; 2. Give a free ride to Bigelow for BA 2100.

Offline spectre000

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Re: SLS searching for missions to solve flight rate dilemma
« Reply #16 on: 08/21/2014 04:25 am »


A lunar lander is in the billions. Then you have all the ancilliary requirements for the mission. Then what?


Why would a mission, and subsequent ones, be no different for Mars?   I've never really understood that reasoning.  We're supposedly building SLS for Mars right?  That's the ultimate goal correct?  Well we'll need landers, habitation modules, rovers, power generators, greenhouses, etc for Mars.  So why not start on out the Moon?

I'd rather test out everything on a place three days away than somewhere it takes nine months to get to. 

The moon just makes so much more sense to me.  It's close, it will cost less, be less risky for the crew.  We could do so much there.  How about a telescope on the dark side?  Wouldn't it be much easier to service a telescope on a ground surface than hovering in orbit like Hubble, or out in some Lagrange point like JWST? 

I want humans to land on Mars just as much as anyone.  But we should be sensible.  The moon is closer, it's far more viable.  It's where we should cut our teeth first before we try another planetoid 35 million miles away.

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: SLS searching for missions to solve flight rate dilemma
« Reply #17 on: 08/21/2014 04:46 am »


A lunar lander is in the billions. Then you have all the ancilliary requirements for the mission. Then what?


Why would a mission, and subsequent ones, be no different for Mars?   I've never really understood that reasoning.  We're supposedly building SLS for Mars right?  That's the ultimate goal correct?  Well we'll need landers, habitation modules, rovers, power generators, greenhouses, etc for Mars.  So why not start on out the Moon?

Because the Moon is nothing like Mars.  The requirements for the moon are so drastically different it makes no sense to try it first on the Moon.

It's like saying we're in England and we're planning an expedition to Antarctica, so let's first practice on the Canary Islands.  The problem is the Canary Islands are nothing like Antarctica.

The Moon's cycles of sunlight and darkness impose requirements on anything there that are drastically different from the Mars requirements.  The thin Martian atmosphere is very different from the virtually non-existent Moon atmosphere.  Dust blowing in the wind has nothing like it on the moon.  Landing is very different on Mars because the gravity is different and the atmosphere can be used to assist landing.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: SLS searching for missions to solve flight rate dilemma
« Reply #18 on: 08/21/2014 05:11 am »
I would suggest manifesting all Mars trips between ESA, NASA, ISRO and JAXA on one SLS launch per window. NASA then gets dedicated launchers from their respective countries for whatever payloads they see fit in trade. That would be 1 added flight every 2 years which would increase 1 flight every 2 years to 1 flight per year. The cooperating international agencies get  less restrained mass budget for their mars missions while NASA gets bigger mass budgets for mars, fills empty SLS slots while offseting the SLS launch costs with lower launch costs on other launchers. Any excess capacity could be for pre-positioning supplies like food, water and fuel at a Mars landing site. You could even provide lift for small university projects on a mutli-payload adapter.

For instance, in 2003: ESA's Mars Express, Beagle 2, Spirit and Opportunity were launched for a Mars transfer orbit. This took 3 different launchers. A potential manifest for 2020 would be: ISRO Mangalyaan 2, NASA "2020" Rover(maybe a MER-like twin approach?), JAXA Melos-1 and NASA Icebreaker Life. Furthermore, this greatly simplifies Mars sample return for a mission in the 2020s and allows NASA the opportunity to practice and develop the technology for landing larger payloads on Mars allowed by more upmass.

Offline Proponent

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Re: SLS searching for missions to solve flight rate dilemma
« Reply #19 on: 08/21/2014 05:23 am »
If I could offer one criticism of the generally excellent article, may I point to the following passage:

The requirement for debuting SLS in 2017 had little to do with the rocket’s Beyond Earth Orbit (BEO) exploration aspirations. It was the 2010 Authorization Act that called on SLS and Orion to provide a back up role to the Commercial Crew Program, in the event of a severe delay to what is now known as the USCV-1 (US Crew Vehicle -1) mission.

The 2010 Act actually calls for an initial operational capability to LEO of no later than 31 December 2016:

Priority should be placed on the core elements with the goal for operational capability for the core elements not later than December 31, 2016. (Public Law 111-267, Sec. 302[2][c]).

And if a human-rated LEO version of SLS was to be operational by this date, presumably test flights would have been required before then.
« Last Edit: 08/21/2014 06:10 am by Proponent »

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