Author Topic: SpaceX roadmap  (Read 61663 times)

Offline bulkmail

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #20 on: 02/04/2012 09:14 pm »
1. You didn't answer my question and did not cite your sources.

2. You diverted to Bigelow F9.
3. The Spacex launch manifest has slipped before and will continue to do so in the future, because its not only subject to issues at Spacex but also to issues with the customers as well.

4. There is no guarantee that Bigelow will have a payload ready for that flight.

5. You cannot simply "exclude" unexpected hurdles or cancellations. Look how that worked out for CXP. They "excluded" serious design flaws and miscalculations. And not surprisingly, they don't exist anymore.
1. Working on it.
2. ?? clarify please
3.4.5. Of course. The same applies to "roadmaps", especially unofficially compiled ones like this.

Your comments sound like you expect my list to predict what will happen. I'm not a prophet. I simply compiled what info was publicly available.

Offline bulkmail

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #21 on: 02/04/2012 10:10 pm »
Looking at the roadmap everything except second stage reusability and Raptor is up to 2016. There will be delays, but even if so by the time crewed Dragons fly (be it 2016 or later) most of these milestones should be completed.

Which of the currently not committed (or other) milestones do you expect to be picked up next in line for R&D?

Offline SpacexULA

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #22 on: 02/05/2012 02:34 am »
Looking at the roadmap everything except second stage reusability and Raptor is up to 2016. There will be delays, but even if so by the time crewed Dragons fly (be it 2016 or later) most of these milestones should be completed.

Which of the currently not committed (or other) milestones do you expect to be picked up next in line for R&D?

Way too many things are still up in the air to know much of anything.  The things we know will happen is quite a short list.

-COTS2/3 will be the next launch NET April
-We do not know yet with certainty what the next launch of F9 will be carrying
-We know SpaceX will do everything in their power to hit the CCDEV timetables.
-We know construction will continue on Vandenburg launch site, but don't know if F9 or F9H will be first launch from this location
-We know that work is being done on Grasshopper VTVL vehicle, but no dates.
-We know Merlin 1D is in production

All dates/projects behind the COTS2/3 launch have way too many assumptions at this point do be much more than guesses.

« Last Edit: 02/05/2012 02:35 am by SpacexULA »
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Online Comga

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #23 on: 02/05/2012 03:50 am »
[Bigelow Falcon 9 flight is on the manifest, so if we exclude unexpected hurdles/cancellation, there is no "if", but only "when bigelow is going to fly another major project".

Bigelow has been on the manifest since they booked the fifth SpaceX flight on a Falcon 5.  You should see a history of the manifest as this flight weaves out and back over the years.  Mind you that this started when Bigelow had engineers building hardware.

But I have to go. ;-)
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Jason1701

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #24 on: 02/05/2012 06:12 am »
1e is gone, you should remove that. Bigelow may never fly.

Offline bulkmail

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #25 on: 02/05/2012 01:20 pm »
Bigelow has been on the manifest since they booked the fifth SpaceX flight on a Falcon 5.  You should see a history of the manifest as this flight weaves out and back over the years.  Mind you that this started when Bigelow had engineers building hardware.
Bigelow isn't listed among the milestones. Non-ISS crew Dragon milestone can be accomplished in other ways (e.g. crewed DragonLab/Tourist).

1e is gone, you should remove that. Bigelow may never fly.
I added Falcon1e subsequently, because it's still on the public manifest.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #26 on: 02/05/2012 05:30 pm »
Make sure the predictions are falsifiable, too.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline dcporter

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #27 on: 02/05/2012 05:34 pm »
Make sure the predictions are falsifiable, too.

+1 Always important

Offline bulkmail

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #28 on: 02/06/2012 07:32 pm »
Make sure the predictions are falsifiable, too.
If you refer to 08 and 12 (≥2013, ≥2015) or those with "?" - I haven't found anything more concrete for those, but I'm glad to update the list if more info is found.

Offline Lars_J

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #29 on: 02/06/2012 07:42 pm »
Make sure the predictions are falsifiable, too.
If you refer to 08 and 12 (≥2013, ≥2015) or those with "?" - I haven't found anything more concrete for those, but I'm glad to update the list if more info is found.

If they are that generic - then what is the point to put them there??? Otherwise people might accuse you of putting up questionable deadlines that you can turn around to say "see, they didn't do what they (not really) promised!"

Also, for point 8 & 12... I looked at your sources - Where exactly in those links did you find a source for those years? Please give a specific quote, beause I read them and I am still dumbfounded to see how you came up with "≥2013" and "≥2015". Are you confusing Grasshopper with a reusable first stage???

Also... When I wanted you to put up sources for each bullet item, I wanted you to put the links WITH each item. Not below in a separate edit section. Please do put them with each item - it will make your list much more easily supported.

One more thing... This item needs to be removed: "10 NET 2016 autonomous R&D Dragon" - it is a complete invention of yours. Yes, an ISS bound crew Dragon might have such a feature, but it is not 100% sure. SpaceX has made no such announcement to base this on. Stop putting up imaginary deadlines. (Besides, COTS2/3 Dragon will do all that already, except for the docking)
« Last Edit: 02/06/2012 07:49 pm by Lars_J »

Offline sojourner

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #30 on: 02/06/2012 07:59 pm »
Isn't "autonomous R&D Dragon" Dragonlab?

Offline bulkmail

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #31 on: 02/07/2012 04:18 pm »
Isn't "autonomous R&D Dragon" Dragonlab?
No, this means "autonomous rendezvous and docking".

Offline bulkmail

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #32 on: 02/07/2012 04:34 pm »
Make sure the predictions are falsifiable, too.
If you refer to 08 and 12 (≥2013, ≥2015) or those with "?" - I haven't found anything more concrete for those, but I'm glad to update the list if more info is found.

If they are that generic - then what is the point to put them there??? Otherwise people might accuse you of putting up questionable deadlines that you can turn around to say "see, they didn't do what they (not really) promised!"
The point is that I haven't found better data. The point of the whole thread is that other people contribute to the roadmap, so that we gather a better overview of what to expect and when (and, yes, track how far they go from the initial estimates). The point is not in "supporting" or "accusing" SpaceX (or the thread author) about something.

Also, for point 8 & 12... I looked at your sources - Where exactly in those links did you find a source for those years? Please give a specific quote, beause I read them and I am still dumbfounded to see how you came up with "≥2013" and "≥2015". Are you confusing Grasshopper with a reusable first stage???
About 8 - "By flight six we think it’s highly likely we’ll recover the first stage, and when we get it back we’ll see what survived through re-entry, and what got fried, and carry on with the process." - 2013 according to the current manifest should be a few flights after that point.

About 12 - "SpaceX anticipates that the Grasshopper RLV program would require up to 3 years to complete." Starting in 2012 + 3 years makes 2015, and because I don't confuse Grasshopper with reusable first stage I put ≥, because obviously they will need more time. OK, maybe it should be ">", but I didn't want to judge how close are actually F9 first stage and Grasshopper.

Also... When I wanted you to put up sources for each bullet item, I wanted you to put the links WITH each item. Not below in a separate edit section. Please do put them with each item - it will make your list much more easily supported.
Placing the links at each point obscures the list (actually they were there for a brief period of time). Does it matter, from content perspective, where the links are? I think it's more important whether there are links in the first place and what they state.

One more thing... This item needs to be removed: "10 NET 2016 autonomous R&D Dragon" - it is a complete invention of yours. Yes, an ISS bound crew Dragon might have such a feature, but it is not 100% sure. SpaceX has made no such announcement to base this on. Stop putting up imaginary deadlines. (Besides, COTS2/3 Dragon will do all that already, except for the docking)
Actually they do state "Fully autonomous rendezvous and docking with manual override capability in crewed configuration" - http://www.spacex.com/dragon.php. I'll add the link.


Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #33 on: 02/07/2012 06:36 pm »
It’s the dependencies of previous tasks/milestones that control when the follow on tasks/milestone will be completed.

Here is my take of the dependency diagram of the tasks/milestones. It’s not totally inclusive of all the SpaceX stated and hinted tasks or subtasks. Some subtasks like LAS is actually imbedded into  Crew Dragon because its first use and testing will be on Crew Dragon.

Offline go4mars

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #34 on: 02/07/2012 07:56 pm »
It’s the dependencies of previous tasks/milestones that control when the follow on tasks/milestone will be completed.

Here is my take of the dependency diagram of the tasks/milestones. It’s not totally inclusive of all the SpaceX stated and hinted tasks or subtasks. Some subtasks like LAS is actually imbedded into  Crew Dragon because its first use and testing will be on Crew Dragon.

Thanks for posting that.  Out of curiousity, why is F9 block two an antecedent to crew dragon? 

How would the large underground test facility at Macgregor fit in?   
« Last Edit: 02/07/2012 07:58 pm by go4mars »
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Offline Tcommon

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #35 on: 02/07/2012 08:27 pm »
See below an attempt to gather the high level milestones and dates estimations for all SpaceX projects:..

Q1: how much has SpaceX earned from launching payloads
Q2: how are they going to pay for this wishlist?

Offline go4mars

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #36 on: 02/07/2012 08:33 pm »
Q1: how much has SpaceX earned from launching payloads
Q2: how are they going to pay for this wishlist?
1  Not very much for things launched already.  Some for things yet to be launched. 

2  He's a billionairre with billionaire friends.  He can also do an IPO when he wants to. 
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Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #37 on: 02/07/2012 11:33 pm »
Thanks for posting that.  Out of curiousity, why is F9 block two an antecedent to crew dragon? 

How would the large underground test facility at Macgregor fit in?   

Crew Dragon will need the extra performance primarily represented by the Merlin 1D. This is due to the lower max accel crew requirement and the other flight profile items to enable some of the abort modes that all take away from the already Block I marginal performance for Cargo Dragon. Also by the time Crew Dragon flies anyway there will no longer be a F9 Block I just the F9 Block II, so it is not a pacing item for Crew Dragon.

Thanks for pointing out the facility upgrades going on at MacGregor which is needed to do the FH testing before the first FH flight. I will add it to the dependency for the FH.

Offline Tcommon

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #38 on: 02/07/2012 11:37 pm »
Q1: how much has SpaceX earned from launching payloads
Q2: how are they going to pay for this wishlist?
1  Not very much for things launched already.  Some for things yet to be launched. 

2  He's a billionairre with billionaire friends.  He can also do an IPO when he wants to. 

Hypothetically, if they do start launching payloads, with their very low prices and (presumably) very low margins, how will they earn the money to pay for the new product developments in your list? Where's the income? Where are they going to get the hundreds of millions needed - or billions - when they aren't launching satellites, or much of anything else?

Don't get me wrong - I think SpaceX could potentially be a good deal for US taxpayers, if they survive.

« Last Edit: 02/08/2012 12:00 am by Tcommon »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX roadmap
« Reply #39 on: 02/07/2012 11:59 pm »
Thanks for posting that.  Out of curiousity, why is F9 block two an antecedent to crew dragon? 

How would the large underground test facility at Macgregor fit in?   

Crew Dragon will need the extra performance primarily represented by the Merlin 1D. This is due to the lower max accel crew requirement and the other flight profile items to enable some of the abort modes that all take away from the already Block I marginal performance for Cargo Dragon. Also by the time Crew Dragon flies anyway there will no longer be a F9 Block I just the F9 Block II, so it is not a pacing item for Crew Dragon.

Thanks for pointing out the facility upgrades going on at MacGregor which is needed to do the FH testing before the first FH flight. I will add it to the dependency for the FH.

Right. It may be possible for crewed Dragon to use Block I Falcon 9 (or not), but SpaceX plans to switch to Merlin 1D on the 7th flight or so of Falcon 9, and SpaceX needs the extra GTO performance that Merlin 1D provides for comm sat business.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

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