1. You didn't answer my question and did not cite your sources.2. You diverted to Bigelow F9. 3. The Spacex launch manifest has slipped before and will continue to do so in the future, because its not only subject to issues at Spacex but also to issues with the customers as well. 4. There is no guarantee that Bigelow will have a payload ready for that flight. 5. You cannot simply "exclude" unexpected hurdles or cancellations. Look how that worked out for CXP. They "excluded" serious design flaws and miscalculations. And not surprisingly, they don't exist anymore.
Looking at the roadmap everything except second stage reusability and Raptor is up to 2016. There will be delays, but even if so by the time crewed Dragons fly (be it 2016 or later) most of these milestones should be completed.Which of the currently not committed (or other) milestones do you expect to be picked up next in line for R&D?
[Bigelow Falcon 9 flight is on the manifest, so if we exclude unexpected hurdles/cancellation, there is no "if", but only "when bigelow is going to fly another major project".
Bigelow has been on the manifest since they booked the fifth SpaceX flight on a Falcon 5. You should see a history of the manifest as this flight weaves out and back over the years. Mind you that this started when Bigelow had engineers building hardware.
1e is gone, you should remove that. Bigelow may never fly.
Make sure the predictions are falsifiable, too.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 02/05/2012 05:30 pmMake sure the predictions are falsifiable, too.If you refer to 08 and 12 (≥2013, ≥2015) or those with "?" - I haven't found anything more concrete for those, but I'm glad to update the list if more info is found.
Isn't "autonomous R&D Dragon" Dragonlab?
Quote from: bulkmail on 02/06/2012 07:32 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 02/05/2012 05:30 pmMake sure the predictions are falsifiable, too.If you refer to 08 and 12 (≥2013, ≥2015) or those with "?" - I haven't found anything more concrete for those, but I'm glad to update the list if more info is found.If they are that generic - then what is the point to put them there??? Otherwise people might accuse you of putting up questionable deadlines that you can turn around to say "see, they didn't do what they (not really) promised!"
Also, for point 8 & 12... I looked at your sources - Where exactly in those links did you find a source for those years? Please give a specific quote, beause I read them and I am still dumbfounded to see how you came up with "≥2013" and "≥2015". Are you confusing Grasshopper with a reusable first stage???
Also... When I wanted you to put up sources for each bullet item, I wanted you to put the links WITH each item. Not below in a separate edit section. Please do put them with each item - it will make your list much more easily supported.
One more thing... This item needs to be removed: "10 NET 2016 autonomous R&D Dragon" - it is a complete invention of yours. Yes, an ISS bound crew Dragon might have such a feature, but it is not 100% sure. SpaceX has made no such announcement to base this on. Stop putting up imaginary deadlines. (Besides, COTS2/3 Dragon will do all that already, except for the docking)
It’s the dependencies of previous tasks/milestones that control when the follow on tasks/milestone will be completed.Here is my take of the dependency diagram of the tasks/milestones. It’s not totally inclusive of all the SpaceX stated and hinted tasks or subtasks. Some subtasks like LAS is actually imbedded into Crew Dragon because its first use and testing will be on Crew Dragon.
See below an attempt to gather the high level milestones and dates estimations for all SpaceX projects:..
Q1: how much has SpaceX earned from launching payloadsQ2: how are they going to pay for this wishlist?
Thanks for posting that. Out of curiousity, why is F9 block two an antecedent to crew dragon? How would the large underground test facility at Macgregor fit in?
Quote from: Tcommon on 02/07/2012 08:27 pmQ1: how much has SpaceX earned from launching payloadsQ2: how are they going to pay for this wishlist?1 Not very much for things launched already. Some for things yet to be launched. 2 He's a billionairre with billionaire friends. He can also do an IPO when he wants to.
Quote from: go4mars on 02/07/2012 07:56 pmThanks for posting that. Out of curiousity, why is F9 block two an antecedent to crew dragon? How would the large underground test facility at Macgregor fit in? Crew Dragon will need the extra performance primarily represented by the Merlin 1D. This is due to the lower max accel crew requirement and the other flight profile items to enable some of the abort modes that all take away from the already Block I marginal performance for Cargo Dragon. Also by the time Crew Dragon flies anyway there will no longer be a F9 Block I just the F9 Block II, so it is not a pacing item for Crew Dragon.Thanks for pointing out the facility upgrades going on at MacGregor which is needed to do the FH testing before the first FH flight. I will add it to the dependency for the FH.