Author Topic: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel  (Read 16000 times)

Offline Danderman

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #20 on: 11/22/2013 10:58 pm »
The TDRS system can in theory be replaced with a small satellite and purchasing time on commercial com satellites.)

Really? Do tell! Are dedicated channels on commercial comsats really that cheap?

« Last Edit: 11/22/2013 10:59 pm by Danderman »

Offline pathfinder_01

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #21 on: 11/22/2013 11:06 pm »
The TDRS system can in theory be replaced with a small satellite and purchasing time on commercial com satellites.)

Really? Do tell! Are dedicated channels on commercial comsats really that cheap?

Ah no, but I do see a differnt kind of model for operations. I can see a station acting to extend the time on Orbit for tourists right not all you get is 3 days on the ISS, what if you could get say a week or two, I think something like that might sell and work.

Offline Danderman

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #22 on: 11/22/2013 11:37 pm »
The TDRS system can in theory be replaced with a small satellite and purchasing time on commercial com satellites.)

Really? Do tell! Are dedicated channels on commercial comsats really that cheap?

Ah no, but I do see a differnt kind of model for operations. I can see a station acting to extend the time on Orbit for tourists right not all you get is 3 days on the ISS, what if you could get say a week or two, I think something like that might sell and work.

The historical time at the station for tourists has been something like 6 days, with 2 days of free flight time.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #23 on: 11/22/2013 11:42 pm »
Ah no, but I do see a differnt kind of model for operations. I can see a station acting to extend the time on Orbit for tourists right not all you get is 3 days on the ISS, what if you could get say a week or two, I think something like that might sell and work.

The historical time at the station for tourists has been something like 6 days, with 2 days of free flight time.

Yep, Wikipedia has a nice table: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_tourism#List_of_flown_space_tourists
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Danderman

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #24 on: 11/26/2013 03:38 pm »
Ah no, but I do see a differnt kind of model for operations. I can see a station acting to extend the time on Orbit for tourists right not all you get is 3 days on the ISS, what if you could get say a week or two, I think something like that might sell and work.

The historical time at the station for tourists has been something like 6 days, with 2 days of free flight time.

Yep, Wikipedia has a nice table: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_tourism#List_of_flown_space_tourists

which reveals that mission length for space tourists has actually been a little longer than the standard 8 day missions.


Offline Danderman

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #25 on: 11/26/2013 03:41 pm »
Why do unmanned satellites of varying sizes need MUCH less staff to keep functioning but the station need WAY, WAY more? Yeah it is manned and yes there are special issues to it being manned but there are also lots of things on earth that are man or unmanned and the staffing ratio doesn't explode near as much.

The assumption here is that NASA is running up expenses for ISS that are not reasonable.

Given that this thread is about the expenses of running space stations, it would be useful to explore the NASA budget for ISS ops, and demonstrate those expenses that are really not necessary for a commercial operation.

If, for example, the assertion is that TDRS ops costs for ISS are too expensive, then demonstrating that commercial alternatives would be cheaper would be useful.

It should be noted that Bigelow opted for a single ground station for comm with its subscale models.

Offline billh

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #26 on: 11/26/2013 04:18 pm »
ISS is a vastly more complex spacecraft than anything Bigelow would build. Surely a much simpler system would be much cheaper to operate.

Offline dcporter

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #27 on: 11/26/2013 06:17 pm »
ISS is a vastly more complex spacecraft than anything Bigelow would build. Surely a much simpler system would be much cheaper to operate.

What are some examples of this though? E.g. could you do a single ground station for a station with humans onboard?

Offline daveklingler

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #28 on: 11/26/2013 07:03 pm »
ISS is a vastly more complex spacecraft than anything Bigelow would build. Surely a much simpler system would be much cheaper to operate.

What are some examples of this though? E.g. could you do a single ground station for a station with humans onboard?

Actually, I've wondered about using a commercial constellation, aka Iridium, Globalstar or Orbcomm.  Russia already uses Iridium for its ground rescue communications.

Offline daveklingler

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #29 on: 11/26/2013 07:48 pm »
And yet you still feel its necessary to bring up the "private can do everything NASA does at a fraction of the cost" "argument".

That's a perfectly valid argument, and if the situation has changed since the Union's inception, we have yet to see any evidence.  For example, in 1794, $688,000 was allocated for the first six U.S. naval ships, and an additional $1,088,000 was needed to cover the overruns.  Rather than build the ships in one giant shipyard, the work was spread among six new shipyards in Virginia, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland.  Sound familiar?

The space program was originally sold to Kennedy on the premise that it would keep the defense complex workforce employed post-Korea.  You can find more detail about how the work was spread around the country in various books; my favorite is "Journey to Tranquility" by Young, Silcock and Dunn.  Congress doesn't vote for the space program because they love space exploration. 

You think people at NASA are not motivated enough to spend their budget on other things than ISS operation?
Small programs can be efficient, but large programs tend to become targets for enterprising politicians.

Regarding your rhetorical question, I'm sure that many folks at NASA HQ and the various centers, which operate fairly independently, are motivated to spend less in several areas and more in other areas, but that's not the way the budget allocation works.  NASA's not given an allowance and told to spend it wisely.

My own research suggests pretty clearly that NASA takes what Congress and the contractors are willing to give them.  Referencing the Air Force NAFCOM study (http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/586023main_8-3-11_NAFCOM.pdf), it's at least reasonable to multiply NASA's costs by 40%.  If you're trying to cost out a commercial space operation and modeling it on NASA's costs, that's what I would do.

Using NASA's costs allow you to come at the research from one end, but as many other approaches should be taken as possible.  The other, as Chalmer has attempted, is to realize that NASA's way of doing things isn't necessarily the way that a commercial entity would do them now. 

Creating a rough Systems Requirements study allows you to fill in the holes with solutions you deem adequate and appropriate, then cost out the solutions and see whether there's any place to innovate with something more clever.  Then you can create a schedule, figure out a more defined budget, adjust the original study with the results, and keep iterating until you have something resembling a business plan.

Offline Danderman

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #30 on: 11/30/2013 03:51 am »
Actually, I've wondered about using a commercial constellation, aka Iridium, Globalstar or Orbcomm.  Russia already uses Iridium for its ground rescue communications.

Not nearly enough bandwidth for a space platform that hosts humans, unless they really, really constrain comm to a few bps per function.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #31 on: 11/30/2013 04:56 am »
Actually, I've wondered about using a commercial constellation, aka Iridium, Globalstar or Orbcomm.  Russia already uses Iridium for its ground rescue communications.

Not nearly enough bandwidth for a space platform that hosts humans, unless they really, really constrain comm to a few bps per function.
...Next-gen Iridium constellation will be capable of high-speed Ka-band data channels of up to 8Mbit/s. That's enough for a (compressed) hidef video stream. And it's possible to have multiple channels simultaneously. (And, actually, they just have a new service capable of 64mbps that they recently announced for broadcast purposes... it will be available when the next-gen constellation is up in 2017.) By the time any commercial space hotel is even close to launch, there will be plenty of resources from Iridium.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #32 on: 11/30/2013 06:32 am »
As shown by the ISS the spacestation will need regular maintenance to repair its systems.  It will also need cleaning.  Extra launches for the staff and downtime while the work is performed need costing in.

Millionaires may make their own beds but they will not scrub the walls.

Offline Danderman

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #33 on: 11/30/2013 02:20 pm »
Next-gen Iridium constellation will be capable of high-speed Ka-band data channels of up to 8Mbit/s. That's enough for a (compressed) hidef video stream. And it's possible to have multiple channels simultaneously. (And, actually, they just have a new service capable of 64mbps that they recently announced for broadcast purposes... it will be available when the next-gen constellation is up in 2017.) By the time any commercial space hotel is even close to launch, there will be plenty of resources from Iridium.

Let us know when Iridium gets that spectrum.

« Last Edit: 11/30/2013 02:20 pm by Danderman »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #34 on: 12/02/2013 12:17 am »
Next-gen Iridium constellation will be capable of high-speed Ka-band data channels of up to 8Mbit/s. That's enough for a (compressed) hidef video stream. And it's possible to have multiple channels simultaneously. (And, actually, they just have a new service capable of 64mbps that they recently announced for broadcast purposes... it will be available when the next-gen constellation is up in 2017.) By the time any commercial space hotel is even close to launch, there will be plenty of resources from Iridium.

Let us know when Iridium gets that spectrum.
Who says they need extra spectrum for that bandwidth? From what I understand, it's just diverting resources that would otherwise service other customers. Obviously, you're going to pay a premium.

Iridium is an established company, with satellites being built right now. I'm pretty sure the onus is on those saying they won't have that capability (such as yourself).
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Danderman

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #35 on: 12/02/2013 03:52 am »
Next-gen Iridium constellation will be capable of high-speed Ka-band data channels of up to 8Mbit/s. That's enough for a (compressed) hidef video stream. And it's possible to have multiple channels simultaneously. (And, actually, they just have a new service capable of 64mbps that they recently announced for broadcast purposes... it will be available when the next-gen constellation is up in 2017.) By the time any commercial space hotel is even close to launch, there will be plenty of resources from Iridium.

Let us know when Iridium gets that spectrum.
Who says they need extra spectrum for that bandwidth? From what I understand, it's just diverting resources that would otherwise service other customers. Obviously, you're going to pay a premium.

Iridium is an established company, with satellites being built right now. I'm pretty sure the onus is on those saying they won't have that capability (such as yourself).

Iridium has a tiny amount of spectrum now to support its current user base at something like 2400 bps per connection. Switching to a different band at a higher bandwidth would be very difficult and costly.

Iridium does have second generation satellites being built to support its current user base at the lower bandwidth.

AFAIK, there are no solid plans to provide high bandwidth connectivity from LEO platforms.
« Last Edit: 12/02/2013 03:53 am by Danderman »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #36 on: 12/02/2013 04:12 am »
Next-gen Iridium constellation will be capable of high-speed Ka-band data channels of up to 8Mbit/s. That's enough for a (compressed) hidef video stream. And it's possible to have multiple channels simultaneously. (And, actually, they just have a new service capable of 64mbps that they recently announced for broadcast purposes... it will be available when the next-gen constellation is up in 2017.) By the time any commercial space hotel is even close to launch, there will be plenty of resources from Iridium.

Let us know when Iridium gets that spectrum.
Who says they need extra spectrum for that bandwidth? From what I understand, it's just diverting resources that would otherwise service other customers. Obviously, you're going to pay a premium.

Iridium is an established company, with satellites being built right now. I'm pretty sure the onus is on those saying they won't have that capability (such as yourself).

Iridium has a tiny amount of spectrum now to support its current user base at something like 2400 bps per connection. Switching to a different band at a higher bandwidth would be very difficult and costly.

Iridium does have second generation satellites being built to support its current user base at the lower bandwidth.

AFAIK, there are no solid plans to provide high bandwidth connectivity from LEO platforms.
(Edited out my snark)
http://www.iridium.com/about/IridiumNEXT/Technology.aspx
You can already get 132kbps connections using the current, already-existing Iridium constellation. The next-gen network will be capable of 64mbps connections.
« Last Edit: 12/02/2013 05:13 am by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Danderman

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #37 on: 12/02/2013 04:36 am »
]You should do research before making such assertions.
http://www.iridium.com/about/IridiumNEXT/Technology.aspx
You can already get 132kbps connections using the current, already-existing Iridium constellation. The next-gen network will be capable of 64mbps connections.

You are correct, I am way behind the times on this stuff.

Iridium figured out a way to gang together a bunch of 2.4 kbps channels that no one was using to enable a quasi-broadband system, basically using all of the capacity of a comsat flying over the ocean for one connection (this is only offered for maritime users, since the ocean is not really filled with many standard Iridium users).

The IridiumNEXT broadband is new to me. This uses the Proteus II bus, so there isn't a lot of power for many users at that baud rate, so by ganging together multiple  user circuits, they can provide quasi-broadband for a small number of users. The Ka-band product simply uses the feeder link bandwidth for even fewer users, since once that is in use, the comsat loses the capability of communicating with a terrestrial gateway.

Having said that,  no flavor of Iridium will be useful for a space platform in LEO, since the satellites are so low that their propagation cones are too small at orbital altitudes for much communication. There might be enough signal time for short bursts of data that could support a constellation like Planet Labs in very low LEO, but not enough for a commercial space platform.
« Last Edit: 12/02/2013 04:42 am by Danderman »

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #38 on: 12/03/2013 01:43 pm »
Just stating some assumptions are low and other are high without qualifying why and what a better estimate is, is meaningless.

Uhhhhh.... Welcome to the forum?

Seriously, great thread idea.

Couple of thoughts:

1. The time spent should be five to seven days. With a day of travel up and down added to it.  There's nothing to do up there, except, well, you know.  Cost of ordinary consumables is rather high.  If possible, the consumables should be brought up with each tourist flight.  Afraid you will have to do some research on what to bring, and about how much it would cost to launch.  Whatever you do, use high figures for this cost, given your likely experience in these things.

2. It's not clear if you have accounted for the crew.  Here on Earth, we let adults occupy the room, because any adult knows how to open the hotel door and leave.  Up there, there will be many buttons to not touch, and there needs to be crew; probably two, I'd say.  That's a cost.

3.  Twelve people a year is not completely unrealistic, but two the first year, four the next, and six the next, is probably more realistic, even though that adversely affects the income side of your spreadsheet.  There's no point in looking at that data from the maximum number of visitors.  maybe the first trip breaks even, but the second trip needs to be profitable.  I don't think I would bother with amortization.  Just try to make realistic figures for the first three years.

4.  Two tourists, two crew, and cargo in a Dragon.  No more, no less.  IMO.  Ticket price might have to double, at first.

I've increased cost of Other services as response to Danderman, from 10 to 15 mill. per mission.

True, Danderman gave you his seat of the pants guess that your costs were too low.  Unfortunately, you are making a seat of the pants response, and increasing the expenses by an arbitrary amount, without support.

Additionally, you cannot assume that launch costs will be reduced significantly.  It is far more probable that they will go up.  If you have evidence to the contrary, you should provide it, if credibility is one of your personal goals in this effort.

Like Danderman said, "There is therefore a lot of magic in the expense side of the analysis."  Your choice is to take personal affront, or attempt to reduce the "magic".

FWIW, so to speak.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline go4mars

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Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
« Reply #39 on: 12/03/2013 11:05 pm »
Millionaires may make their own beds but they will not scrub the walls.
I'm not sure what kind of millionaire's you're anticipating.  But in general - tell someone the price of a "make a mess" trip versus a "do your chores" trip, and I'd think the majority would find time to feed the slig tanks, or whatever needs doing. 
Elasmotherium; hurlyburly Doggerlandic Jentilak steeds insouciantly gallop in viridescent taiga, eluding deluginal Burckle's abyssal excavation.

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