Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2014?

1
2 (0.4%)
2
0 (0%)
3
0 (0%)
4
16 (3.2%)
5
23 (4.7%)
6
78 (15.8%)
7
87 (17.6%)
8
111 (22.5%)
9
66 (13.4%)
10
68 (13.8%)
11
12 (2.4%)
12 or more
31 (6.3%)

Total Members Voted: 494

Voting closed: 01/19/2014 10:57 pm


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014  (Read 453118 times)

Offline Lee Jay

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #1140 on: 12/19/2014 04:23 pm »
Looks like they'll have 6 flights this year (which also means I got it right two years in a row unless they squeeze CRS-4 in),

I don't remember it, but the forum says I voted correctly in 2012 too.  So, 3-for-3!  The more they launch, the harder it is to get it right, so I expect the streak to end in 2015.

Offline R7

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #1141 on: 12/19/2014 04:32 pm »
Voted 5. Oh well, positive surprise. And now to contemplate a new guess between 5 and 10...
AD·ASTRA·ASTRORVM·GRATIA

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #1142 on: 12/21/2014 02:50 am »
Well with the result now out I can finally say how many I voted.....7. So close.....  :-X

(interestingly I took the customer perspective and actually guessed which satellites would be launched. I voted after Thaicom 6 slipped to 2014 and guessed the following list:

*Thaicom 6 (given)
*at least 2 Dragon flights, CRS-3/4 (minimum needed to satisfy ISS upmass/downmass demand; I don't have enough confidence in SpaceX flying 3 Dragon flights at late 2013, which now turned into reality)
*Orbcomm 2-F1 (the company was in urgent need of new satellites)
*AsiaSat 8/6 (the company seems to be on full steam to get these 2 working by mid-2014 at that time)

That 6 covers the first 9 months as I thought at the time of guessing (which turned out to be so accurate....except that the ultimate launch dates were far from what I thought at that time!). I decided to add 1 more launch for Q4, which would have been one of either CRS-5, Turkmensat or DSCOVR. As it turns out 2 of these 3 ends up in January 2015.....  :-X

Well 2015 would need even more info from the customers' side. Let's see.....  ::)
Astronomy & spaceflight geek penguin. In a relationship w/ Space Shuttle Discovery. Current Priority: Chasing the Chinese Spaceflight Wonder Egg & A Certain Chinese Mars Rover

Offline Llian Rhydderch

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #1143 on: 12/27/2014 06:43 pm »
Is there a way to publish the screen names of the correct guessers?
I actually hate the fact I got it right. Would have preferred to have guessed way too low.

I got it right

congrats Jim ;)

funny didn't think you would bother to vote :-X

Do we know Jim voted, or have evidence of what he voted?  All I saw in his recent post was a screen shot of the aggregated vote tally as of some date in early 2014.  That doesn't seem to be a post going on the record with one's prediction.  (Now maybe that is in some other post; I'm just pointing out that the screen shop of the vote tally does not support an assertion of any particular NSFer predicting any particular number of prospective launches.)
« Last Edit: 12/27/2014 06:44 pm by Llian Rhydderch »
Re arguments from authority on NSF:  "no one is exempt from error, and errors of authority are usually the worst kind.  Taking your word for things without question is no different than a bracket design not being tested because the designer was an old hand."
"You would actually save yourself time and effort if you were to use evidence and logic to make your points instead of wrapping yourself in the royal mantle of authority.  The approach only works on sheep, not inquisitive, intelligent people."

Offline Lar

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #1144 on: 12/27/2014 06:53 pm »
If Jim says he voted, that is that.

We do not question the integrity of each other. I am not sure how to make it any clearer than that..

This is part of being excellent to each other

PS the screenshot shows one vote in a heavier font. That is the vote of the person who was logged in at the time the screen shot was taken... so actually to my way of thinking that is definitive. Nevertheless we do not question each other. If you read from this that I am somewhat upset and sad you would be correct.
« Last Edit: 12/27/2014 06:55 pm by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

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