Author Topic: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread  (Read 722136 times)

Offline launchwatcher

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 253
  • Liked: 171
  • Likes Given: 193
Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #2100 on: 06/13/2017 05:17 PM »

When was the last time Blue was fast? On anything?
Blue does what it wants to do. Their way. What others think of that is of no concern to them.


They were fast in 2015 and 2016, when they were showing us real progress.

Now half of 2017 is gone, and the only thing Blue Origin is showing us are museum exhibitions. Space enthusiasts don't care about these, they care about stuff being done.
They have customers and orbital launch contracts now; that's more important than what enthusiasts think.

Offline envy887

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1924
  • Liked: 842
  • Likes Given: 505
Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #2101 on: 06/13/2017 05:52 PM »
Simple explanation for NS hiatus: NG.

That would be quite disconcerting. Postponing work on an (almost) ready to fly rocket to develop a new, better one gets you nowhere fast.
When was the last time Blue was fast? On anything?
Blue does what it wants to do. Their way. What others think of that is of no concern to them.

They signed launch contracts for GTO launches in 2020, so they risk losing money (and more importantly, customers) if they don't deliver on time.

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1178
  • US
  • Liked: 784
  • Likes Given: 637
Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #2102 on: 06/14/2017 09:10 PM »
Moved some posts discussing space tourism:
Space Tourism Predictions?

Online WindnWar

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 394
  • South Carolina
  • Liked: 204
  • Likes Given: 1079
Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #2103 on: 06/14/2017 09:27 PM »
Simple explanation for NS hiatus: NG.

That would be quite disconcerting. Postponing work on an (almost) ready to fly rocket to develop a new, better one gets you nowhere fast.
When was the last time Blue was fast? On anything?
Blue does what it wants to do. Their way. What others think of that is of no concern to them.

They signed launch contracts for GTO launches in 2020, so they risk losing money (and more importantly, customers) if they don't deliver on time.

Those launches are far enough out that if there are delays those customers could easily book a backup flight provider and I doubt Blue would care that much. Especially if it needs more time to make sure its successful.

Offline deruch

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1358
  • California
  • Liked: 1064
  • Likes Given: 1297
Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #2104 on: 06/19/2017 01:49 AM »
Once you've used a rocket design under a launch license, you can't go back to using the lower regulatory bar of the permits.  Also, they are barred from selling flights while using a permit.  So, paying cargo requires using a license which eliminates any future use of the experimental permitting.

It appears that the NS hiatus is the result of its experimental phase being completed, with the expiration of the launch permit this past February, and the need to obtain a launch license prior to any commercial cargo being launched. Does anyone know how long it might take to receive a license from its application forward?

It's certainly possible that this change is partly responsible for the slowdown.  But don't take it as definitive.  There are lots of other potential reasons why they may have temporarily stopped flying.  As for launch licenses, the FAA has an 180-day review period to either approve or deny a application (so, ~6 months).  But there's no reason why BO couldn't apply for a license while they were still operating under the permit.  They just can't have both at the same time. 
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice.  But, in practice, there is.  --Jan van de Snepscheut

Offline GWH

Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #2105 on: 06/19/2017 02:20 AM »
Isn't it also possible that they are implenting design changes to New Shep for rapid reuse and thats delayed moving to the next round of testing?

Offline joek

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2760
  • Liked: 502
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #2106 on: 06/19/2017 03:08 AM »
Blue has stated (or strongly implied) their next step, which is a license for paying cargo (not people).  Which does not mean that some flights will not still operate under a permit.  However, if they want to carry anything for pay (such as experiments--never mind people) they will need a license.

Yes it does, actually.  Once they get a launch license for the vehicle, all future flights for the same vehicle must be covered under a launch license.  See 51 USC 50906, the US code section dealing with experimental permits.  Specifically clause (g), which says,
Quote from: 51 USC 50906
(g) A permit may not be issued for, and a permit that has already been issued shall cease to be valid for, a particular design for a reusable suborbital rocket after a license has been issued for the launch or reentry of a rocket of that design.

Once you've used a rocket design under a launch license, you can't go back to using the lower regulatory bar of the permits.  Also, they are barred from selling flights while using a permit.  So, paying cargo requires using a license which eliminates any future use of the experimental permitting.  The only exception would be if they altered the vehicle sufficiently that it could be considered a separate vehicle design that needed experimental testing.  But, given the explicitness of the relevant law and its intent, I would imagine that the FAA wouldn't let them get by on a "wink and a nod" change.

No it does not.  I  have commented on this previously long ago and at length.

The definition of "rocket design" is undefined.  Commercial providers have been pushing back on this for ages.  Thus we have, e.g., https://www.congress.gov/congressional-report/113th-congress/senate-report/318/1.

In short, it is entirely up to the FAA to determine whether a license or permit is allowed or required.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2792
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 1811
  • Likes Given: 634
Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #2107 on: 06/19/2017 09:17 PM »
Quote
Celebrating our addition to an epic list of pioneers! @JeffBezos accepts the Collier Trophy for #NewShepard. The after-party:

https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/876803940330766336

Offline Chasm

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 145
  • Liked: 64
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #2108 on: 06/21/2017 02:01 PM »
To put the Blue Origin prices somewhat into perspective, ESA announced the ICE Cubes program at the Paris Air Show. Cubesat sized self contained experiments within the ISS.
50k buys you 1U for 4+ months duration. Student, educational and other discounts available.
icecubesservice.com (No pricing there yet.)

Apropos cargo. Looks like the prices in the last presentation were real enough.
$5300 for a NanoLab Student experiment has been mentioned again. - Not to be confused with a NanoRack locker. With 2U NanoLab is much smaller, USB power and data. Full lockers were listed at much higher prices. 50-100k for a single, 100-150k for a double locker.

Offline edkyle99

  • Expert
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12355
    • Space Launch Report
  • Liked: 3095
  • Likes Given: 533
Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #2109 on: 06/21/2017 11:57 PM »
Collier trophy.  Musk doesn't have one, despite landing a bigger, faster stage? 

 - Ed Kyle

Online FutureSpaceTourist

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2792
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 1811
  • Likes Given: 634
Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #2110 on: 06/22/2017 12:15 AM »
Collier trophy.  Musk doesn't have one, despite landing a bigger, faster stage? 

 - Ed Kyle

No he doesn't. But Blue get it for re-use so maybe SpaceX will get it this year?

Online Semmel

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 880
  • Germany
  • Liked: 619
  • Likes Given: 1821
Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #2111 on: 06/22/2017 07:24 AM »
Collier trophy.  Musk doesn't have one, despite landing a bigger, faster stage? 

 - Ed Kyle

No he doesn't. But Blue get it for re-use so maybe SpaceX will get it this year?

Trophies like that are meaningless. Don't know what people see in them. Blue would have done the same with or without the trophy.
« Last Edit: 06/22/2017 07:26 AM by Semmel »

Offline spacenut

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1871
  • East Alabama
  • Liked: 229
  • Likes Given: 169
Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #2112 on: 06/22/2017 08:21 AM »
It's a participation trophy. 

Tags: