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Commercial and US Government Launch Vehicles => Commercial Space Flight General => Topic started by: Chalmer on 11/20/2013 05:08 pm

Title: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Chalmer on 11/20/2013 05:08 pm
Hi there,

Okay I have been looking at the possibility of a Space Hotel, not from a technical point of view but from a financial and business plan one. I think all, or at least many of us can agree that the technical aspects arent the big problem. The hotel is self could be from Bigelow, a ISS-type module from ThalesAlenia, or a Russian type module. The ride up there could be from DragonCrew, CST-100 or Dreamchaser (I believe that at least one will succeed), or a Soyuz.

So the technology should be there at least within the next 5 years time.

I have constructed a timeline of costs and income based on DragonCrew, F9, FH, and Bigelows Astronaout flight costs.

My baseline is as follows,

Bigelow Develops and Constructs a single module Hotel over the next 5 years (2014-2018), and launch it on a Falcon Heavy in 2019 (FH should have flown several times by then). The hotel have a life time in orbit of 15 years (2019-2033)

Space Tourists flights also start in 2019, 2 flights per year in a DragonCrew(Should be in ISS service by then) on an F9 with 6 tourists and one pilot (12 yearly tourists). Each tourist pays $26.25 Mill. in 2014 money all years (presumably this would be inflation adjusted in real life).

I have included some fixed and variable cost for station up keep and launch and support etc.

See picture for the results. With 2 flights of 6 tourists the case just closes. Some may argue that some of my price estimates are completely of base, and i welcome that, but please give a reason why. Also, i have not included rack lease like Bigelow is aiming for and i have kept the number of tourists per year relatively low and constant. It is a simple model, and it might be more realistic to say have fewer tourists in the first years and more later on, and also change the price along the way. Many examples can be thought of.

I however think that this is a good starting point. Also it shows that it might not be bad business over time, but the main problem seem to be the high entry cost of financing >$700 mill. during the development, construction and launch. While income is unknown.
 
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Danderman on 11/20/2013 05:29 pm
A lot depends on there being 6 paying customers per flight at $26M a ticket.

Also, the "10 million per trip" line item for support/food, etc is waaaaaaaay low.

Basically, your revenues are optimistically high, and your ongoing expenses are optimistically low.


Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Chalmer on 11/20/2013 05:55 pm
A lot depends on there being 6 paying customers per flight at $26M a ticket.

Also, the "10 million per trip" line item for support/food, etc is waaaaaaaay low.

Basically, your revenues are optimistically high, and your ongoing expenses are optimistically low.

Perhaps 10 mill. per trip is to low. But what would be a better estimate? I didn't write the assumed time spent at the hotel, which i probably should have. I assume something in the order of 10-20 days. Given that timeline what would be a better estimate of associated costs?

Just stating some assumptions are low and other are high without qualifying why and what a better estimate is, is meaningless.

and of cause it depends heavily on there being costumers. But 12 people a year is not completely unrealistic. Also given the timeline of 2019-2033 suborbital flight might have primed the market for orbital launch.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Lurker Steve on 11/20/2013 06:51 pm
If you assume your space hotel gets visitors once a quarter, that means you probably need a minimum of 4 crewed vehicle flights, plus 2-3 logistics flights per year. Of course, you could put crew and cargo on the same launch, but that dramatically reduces the number of passengers.
 
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Chalmer on 11/20/2013 07:27 pm
If you assume your space hotel gets visitors once a quarter, that means you probably need a minimum of 4 crewed vehicle flights, plus 2-3 logistics flights per year. Of course, you could put crew and cargo on the same launch, but that dramatically reduces the number of passengers.

I assumed cargo would go up with the crew. 6 passengers and 1 pilot + cargo might be overoptimistic. In a ten day mission that is food and water of about 300 kg.

Having a dedicated cargo flight is really expensive since there are no passengers to pay for it (Cost would be spread over passengers on other flights). However if you could get commercial costumers that need experiments flown up and installed and thereby can generate a new revenue stream it might pay for it self. tourists would then also have something to do during the stay, after floating around in circles stop being funny   ;D
This may also create corporate costumers (as crew) that want to run experiments in space. I didnt include this i my setup, since i was trying to keep it simple. I will make some revisions ans see how it looks.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Chalmer on 11/20/2013 07:58 pm
Okay I have added some more items;

- Resupply via Cygnus or Dragon at a cost of 95 Mill. Resupply is set to happens with every other mission.
- I've increased cost of Other services as response to Danderman, from 10 to 15 mill. per mission.
- Payment for experiments of 25 mill per mission.
- Government utilization of the station for 10 mill. per mission after 2028
- I also now start at 1 mission first year and then progress slowly to 4 missions in the last 5 years.

All this means that there now is a small surplus of 150 mill. nominally, but a NPV of minus 160 mill.

I still think that a guy like Bigelow, if he could buy this deal he would.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: guckyfan on 11/20/2013 08:21 pm
IMO the biggest risk factor is the number of space tourists. If you can get enough for 2 or 3 full Dragons a year it may be possible.

About logistics and cargo. There is a possible solution that would not need separate logistics flights. Falcon 9 has enough payload capacity that a separate cargo module could be placed into the trunk, maybe an extended trunk. There would be some development cost but as this is a passive module it should not be too expensive. This way there could be a good  supply of food and consumables.

But I think a combined research and hotel facility with at least two modules may be easier to run cost effective.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 11/21/2013 12:42 am
At $30M for pure tourism the number of tourists a year would be fortunate to have as many as 2 a year.  (This is supported by past history of tourists to orbit.) But if you add researchers (governments and commercial funded), then keeping 2 BA330's full with 6 to 12 persons and 4 to 8 crew flights and 6 to 12 cargo flights becomes feasible.

But if you can drop the tourism price in half to $15M you may be able to increase tourists by a factor of 3 to as many as 6 per year or one full crew flight. Drop it to as low as $10M and you may have enough tourists to fill 2 flights per year. Continuing to drop prices to as low as $5M and you may have enough tourists for 4 or 5 dedicated tourist flights per year nearly enough for a dedicated  1 or 2 BA330 based Space Hotel.

P.S. BTW a 1st stage reusable F9 and reusable Dragon can drop the per seat price for transport to <=$15M for only 6 paying passengers per flight. Higher flight rates may involve firther savings.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: QuantumG on 11/21/2013 12:49 am
At $30M for pure tourism the number of tourists a year would be fortunate to have as many as 2 a year.  (This is supported by past history of tourists to orbit.)

If you say so.. when the Soyuz price was around $30M there was a glut of applicants, who never got a seat. When you consider that this entailed going to Russia for over a year for training, that's quite a lot more interest than what you're saying.


Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: StealerofSuns on 11/21/2013 01:58 am
Could one consider the possibility of launch costs being reduced significantly by the time Bigelow's habitats are up and running?
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: IRobot on 11/21/2013 08:02 am
About logistics and cargo. There is a possible solution that would not need separate logistics flights. Falcon 9 has enough payload capacity that a separate cargo module could be placed into the trunk, maybe an extended trunk. There would be some development cost but as this is a passive module it should not be too expensive. This way there could be a good  supply of food and consumables.
That would require an airlock and EVA's to retrieve them. Or some sort of small cargo airlock with a robotic arm to place the supplies there... Any options adds a lot of complexity and cost.

Also Dragon might still be delta-v limited and might not be able to lift 7 people and a couple of tonnes of cargo.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: guckyfan on 11/21/2013 09:17 am
That would require an airlock and EVA's to retrieve them. Or some sort of small cargo airlock with a robotic arm to place the supplies there... Any options adds a lot of complexity and cost.

Also Dragon might still be delta-v limited and might not be able to lift 7 people and a couple of tonnes of cargo.

They need a separate adapting point for cargo anyway. Yes they would need a robotic arm. Or they use the same kind of docking port as the manned Dragon and let Dragon place the cargo pod. Even 1 ton would be amajor enhancement of capabilities. That would limit size of delivered items, not so good if the station is used for research also. If they do research they want a robotic arm and some cargo berthing mechanism.

If they can go fully reusable separate flights may be a better option though.


Delta-v I don't know. Probably Falcon 9 can do most of it and Dragon mostly maneuvering and return.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Chalmer on 11/21/2013 03:45 pm
Could one consider the possibility of launch costs being reduced significantly by the time Bigelow's habitats are up and running?

Yes, if SpaceX is successful in achieving partial or even full re-usability it is a real possibility that launch costs, which again in this example is the main costs driver and hurdle, might become lower.

About logistics and cargo. There is a possible solution that would not need separate logistics flights. Falcon 9 has enough payload capacity that a separate cargo module could be placed into the trunk, maybe an extended trunk. There would be some development cost but as this is a passive module it should not be too expensive. This way there could be a good  supply of food and consumables.
That would require an airlock and EVA's to retrieve them. Or some sort of small cargo airlock with a robotic arm to place the supplies there... Any options adds a lot of complexity and cost.

Also Dragon might still be delta-v limited and might not be able to lift 7 people and a couple of tonnes of cargo.

Added cargo capability of crewed dragon would definitely make the project close much easier, since you would need fewer launches. I don't know how much cargo there is room for with seven people in the dragon or even how many extra kilos it will be able to bring up. But 7 people should not weigh much more than 1000 kg incl. their suits and stuff, so 300-500 kg of cargo should be doable if there is room for it.

Having a pressurized pod in the trunk that could be retrieved by a robotic arm (which would be a good idea to have in any case) could be a solution too, that could save at least some of the cargo flights.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 11/21/2013 03:51 pm
Bigelow is sending BEAM to the ISS.  He has talked about turning one into an airlock by adding a second door.  So attaching one of these to a BA330 is a technically possible.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: veedriver22 on 11/21/2013 05:35 pm
 Maybe eventually some of the cost could be paid for via advertising.  Not sure if there would be enough TV time to make it work.  Also might have some businesses buying space.   I know if I went up I would much rather eat something from a restaurant rather than conventional space food.  Although that is probably a lot better than it used to be.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Danderman on 11/22/2013 04:22 pm
This kind of analysis cannot be taken seriously, in the sense of someone using it as a template for a real space venture. The principle problem is lack of a concept of operations - without which the expenses cannot be taken seriously.

There is therefore a lot of magic in the expense side of the analysis. Basically, the analysis starts with zero expenses, and then adds in what expenses are known. The reverse needs to occur - start with the ISS US Segment operating budget, and remove those expenses that can be determined are not required for this venture.

One last note - what is the plan for visiting vehicles to attach to the station?
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Oli on 11/22/2013 06:20 pm
NASA ISS Operation and Management expenditures in 2013: $1493m (doesn't include research and transportation, another 1.5bn).

We ignore the russians/japs/euros and their billions of contributions. Lets say it accounts for inefficiency or supplies that aren't needed for a simple hotel.
 
6 people to the station every 2 weeks + 5 cargo flights for $100m/launch (31 launches a year).

(1493+31*100)/(26*6) = ~30m per seat.

Doesn't include building the station.

Will you find 156 tourists a year for that price?  ;)
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: pathfinder_01 on 11/22/2013 06:54 pm
NASA ISS Operation and Management expenditures in 2013: $1493m (doesn't include research and transportation, another 1.5bn).

We ignore the russians/japs/euros and their billions of contributions. Lets say it accounts for inefficiency or supplies that aren't needed for a simple hotel.
 
6 people to the station every 2 weeks + 5 cargo flights for $100m/launch (31 launches a year).

(1493+31*100)/(26*6) = ~30m per seat.

Doesn't include building the station.

Will you find 156 tourists a year for that price?  ;)

Some of the ISS expenses vs. a private station can be lower due to improvements in technology (i.e. Ground staff could be reduced. The TDRS system can in theory be replaced with a small satellite and purchasing time on commercial com satellites.) And due to it being run for profit (i.e. only employing enough people to get the job done.).
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Oli on 11/22/2013 07:26 pm
^

I ignored supplies by HTV/Progress. I ignored international contribution to operation. I ignored the cost of actually building a station. I ignored the fact that you probably need additional people up there to maintain/operate the station instead of tourists.

And yet you still feel its necessary to bring up the "private can do everything NASA does at a fraction of the cost" "argument". You think people at NASA are not motivated enough to spend their budget on other things than ISS operation?
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: pathfinder_01 on 11/22/2013 07:42 pm
^

I ignored supplies by HTV/Progress. I ignored international contribution to operation. I ignored the cost of actually building a station. I ignored the fact that you probably need additional people up there to maintain/operate the station instead of tourists.

And yet you still feel its necessary to bring up the "private can do everything NASA does at a fraction of the cost" "argument". You think people at NASA are not motivated enough to spend their budget on other things than ISS operation?

 Nah I am not for everything being private, but I do think it may be near the time where a commercial station has a small shot of working and by law they are limited to spend the whole budget on operations. A space station can be built in such a way that it does not need to be crewed 100% of the time. Skylab for instance was pretty functional (if empty) without its crew.  I do think you will need additional people to operate the station beyond tourist but space station crews have been as small as two people.

In theory using commercial rockets, assembling more on the ground and inflatables should cost less than the heavy on orbit assembly and shuttle dependence of the ISS. The real problem is if the costs can come down enough for profit.  An resupply mission of Cygnus or Dragon could be had for about $154-$237 and could contain enough supply to keep a crew for 2-3 months (depending on size of crew and efficiency of the life support system. ).  A crewed flight is a real unknown but if you don’t have to developed the manned spacecraft and the station it helps not to mention that the commercial crew spacecraft are aiming for reusability which means the owner might be willing to make a small deal for profit.

Also in theory a space station is nothing but a satellite. Why do unmanned satellites of varying sizes need MUCH less staff to keep functioning but the station need WAY, WAY more? Yeah it is manned and yes there are special issues to it being manned but there are also lots of things on earth that are man or unmanned and the staffing ratio doesn't explode near as much.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Danderman on 11/22/2013 10:58 pm
The TDRS system can in theory be replaced with a small satellite and purchasing time on commercial com satellites.)

Really? Do tell! Are dedicated channels on commercial comsats really that cheap?

Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: pathfinder_01 on 11/22/2013 11:06 pm
The TDRS system can in theory be replaced with a small satellite and purchasing time on commercial com satellites.)

Really? Do tell! Are dedicated channels on commercial comsats really that cheap?

Ah no, but I do see a differnt kind of model for operations. I can see a station acting to extend the time on Orbit for tourists right not all you get is 3 days on the ISS, what if you could get say a week or two, I think something like that might sell and work.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Danderman on 11/22/2013 11:37 pm
The TDRS system can in theory be replaced with a small satellite and purchasing time on commercial com satellites.)

Really? Do tell! Are dedicated channels on commercial comsats really that cheap?

Ah no, but I do see a differnt kind of model for operations. I can see a station acting to extend the time on Orbit for tourists right not all you get is 3 days on the ISS, what if you could get say a week or two, I think something like that might sell and work.

The historical time at the station for tourists has been something like 6 days, with 2 days of free flight time.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: QuantumG on 11/22/2013 11:42 pm
Ah no, but I do see a differnt kind of model for operations. I can see a station acting to extend the time on Orbit for tourists right not all you get is 3 days on the ISS, what if you could get say a week or two, I think something like that might sell and work.

The historical time at the station for tourists has been something like 6 days, with 2 days of free flight time.

Yep, Wikipedia has a nice table: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_tourism#List_of_flown_space_tourists
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Danderman on 11/26/2013 03:38 pm
Ah no, but I do see a differnt kind of model for operations. I can see a station acting to extend the time on Orbit for tourists right not all you get is 3 days on the ISS, what if you could get say a week or two, I think something like that might sell and work.

The historical time at the station for tourists has been something like 6 days, with 2 days of free flight time.

Yep, Wikipedia has a nice table: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_tourism#List_of_flown_space_tourists

which reveals that mission length for space tourists has actually been a little longer than the standard 8 day missions.

Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Danderman on 11/26/2013 03:41 pm
Why do unmanned satellites of varying sizes need MUCH less staff to keep functioning but the station need WAY, WAY more? Yeah it is manned and yes there are special issues to it being manned but there are also lots of things on earth that are man or unmanned and the staffing ratio doesn't explode near as much.

The assumption here is that NASA is running up expenses for ISS that are not reasonable.

Given that this thread is about the expenses of running space stations, it would be useful to explore the NASA budget for ISS ops, and demonstrate those expenses that are really not necessary for a commercial operation.

If, for example, the assertion is that TDRS ops costs for ISS are too expensive, then demonstrating that commercial alternatives would be cheaper would be useful.

It should be noted that Bigelow opted for a single ground station for comm with its subscale models.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: billh on 11/26/2013 04:18 pm
ISS is a vastly more complex spacecraft than anything Bigelow would build. Surely a much simpler system would be much cheaper to operate.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: dcporter on 11/26/2013 06:17 pm
ISS is a vastly more complex spacecraft than anything Bigelow would build. Surely a much simpler system would be much cheaper to operate.

What are some examples of this though? E.g. could you do a single ground station for a station with humans onboard?
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: daveklingler on 11/26/2013 07:03 pm
ISS is a vastly more complex spacecraft than anything Bigelow would build. Surely a much simpler system would be much cheaper to operate.

What are some examples of this though? E.g. could you do a single ground station for a station with humans onboard?

Actually, I've wondered about using a commercial constellation, aka Iridium, Globalstar or Orbcomm.  Russia already uses Iridium for its ground rescue communications.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: daveklingler on 11/26/2013 07:48 pm
And yet you still feel its necessary to bring up the "private can do everything NASA does at a fraction of the cost" "argument".

That's a perfectly valid argument, and if the situation has changed since the Union's inception, we have yet to see any evidence.  For example, in 1794, $688,000 was allocated for the first six U.S. naval ships, and an additional $1,088,000 was needed to cover the overruns.  Rather than build the ships in one giant shipyard, the work was spread among six new shipyards in Virginia, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland.  Sound familiar?

The space program was originally sold to Kennedy on the premise that it would keep the defense complex workforce employed post-Korea.  You can find more detail about how the work was spread around the country in various books; my favorite is "Journey to Tranquility" by Young, Silcock and Dunn.  Congress doesn't vote for the space program because they love space exploration. 

You think people at NASA are not motivated enough to spend their budget on other things than ISS operation?
Small programs can be efficient, but large programs tend to become targets for enterprising politicians.

Regarding your rhetorical question, I'm sure that many folks at NASA HQ and the various centers, which operate fairly independently, are motivated to spend less in several areas and more in other areas, but that's not the way the budget allocation works.  NASA's not given an allowance and told to spend it wisely.

My own research suggests pretty clearly that NASA takes what Congress and the contractors are willing to give them.  Referencing the Air Force NAFCOM study (http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/586023main_8-3-11_NAFCOM.pdf), it's at least reasonable to multiply NASA's costs by 40%.  If you're trying to cost out a commercial space operation and modeling it on NASA's costs, that's what I would do.

Using NASA's costs allow you to come at the research from one end, but as many other approaches should be taken as possible.  The other, as Chalmer has attempted, is to realize that NASA's way of doing things isn't necessarily the way that a commercial entity would do them now. 

Creating a rough Systems Requirements study allows you to fill in the holes with solutions you deem adequate and appropriate, then cost out the solutions and see whether there's any place to innovate with something more clever.  Then you can create a schedule, figure out a more defined budget, adjust the original study with the results, and keep iterating until you have something resembling a business plan.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Danderman on 11/30/2013 03:51 am
Actually, I've wondered about using a commercial constellation, aka Iridium, Globalstar or Orbcomm.  Russia already uses Iridium for its ground rescue communications.

Not nearly enough bandwidth for a space platform that hosts humans, unless they really, really constrain comm to a few bps per function.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Robotbeat on 11/30/2013 04:56 am
Actually, I've wondered about using a commercial constellation, aka Iridium, Globalstar or Orbcomm.  Russia already uses Iridium for its ground rescue communications.

Not nearly enough bandwidth for a space platform that hosts humans, unless they really, really constrain comm to a few bps per function.
...Next-gen Iridium constellation will be capable of high-speed Ka-band data channels of up to 8Mbit/s. That's enough for a (compressed) hidef video stream. And it's possible to have multiple channels simultaneously. (And, actually, they just have a new service capable of 64mbps that they recently announced for broadcast purposes... it will be available when the next-gen constellation is up in 2017.) By the time any commercial space hotel is even close to launch, there will be plenty of resources from Iridium.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 11/30/2013 06:32 am
As shown by the ISS the spacestation will need regular maintenance to repair its systems.  It will also need cleaning.  Extra launches for the staff and downtime while the work is performed need costing in.

Millionaires may make their own beds but they will not scrub the walls.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Danderman on 11/30/2013 02:20 pm
Next-gen Iridium constellation will be capable of high-speed Ka-band data channels of up to 8Mbit/s. That's enough for a (compressed) hidef video stream. And it's possible to have multiple channels simultaneously. (And, actually, they just have a new service capable of 64mbps that they recently announced for broadcast purposes... it will be available when the next-gen constellation is up in 2017.) By the time any commercial space hotel is even close to launch, there will be plenty of resources from Iridium.

Let us know when Iridium gets that spectrum.

Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/02/2013 12:17 am
Next-gen Iridium constellation will be capable of high-speed Ka-band data channels of up to 8Mbit/s. That's enough for a (compressed) hidef video stream. And it's possible to have multiple channels simultaneously. (And, actually, they just have a new service capable of 64mbps that they recently announced for broadcast purposes... it will be available when the next-gen constellation is up in 2017.) By the time any commercial space hotel is even close to launch, there will be plenty of resources from Iridium.

Let us know when Iridium gets that spectrum.
Who says they need extra spectrum for that bandwidth? From what I understand, it's just diverting resources that would otherwise service other customers. Obviously, you're going to pay a premium.

Iridium is an established company, with satellites being built right now. I'm pretty sure the onus is on those saying they won't have that capability (such as yourself).
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Danderman on 12/02/2013 03:52 am
Next-gen Iridium constellation will be capable of high-speed Ka-band data channels of up to 8Mbit/s. That's enough for a (compressed) hidef video stream. And it's possible to have multiple channels simultaneously. (And, actually, they just have a new service capable of 64mbps that they recently announced for broadcast purposes... it will be available when the next-gen constellation is up in 2017.) By the time any commercial space hotel is even close to launch, there will be plenty of resources from Iridium.

Let us know when Iridium gets that spectrum.
Who says they need extra spectrum for that bandwidth? From what I understand, it's just diverting resources that would otherwise service other customers. Obviously, you're going to pay a premium.

Iridium is an established company, with satellites being built right now. I'm pretty sure the onus is on those saying they won't have that capability (such as yourself).

Iridium has a tiny amount of spectrum now to support its current user base at something like 2400 bps per connection. Switching to a different band at a higher bandwidth would be very difficult and costly.

Iridium does have second generation satellites being built to support its current user base at the lower bandwidth.

AFAIK, there are no solid plans to provide high bandwidth connectivity from LEO platforms.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/02/2013 04:12 am
Next-gen Iridium constellation will be capable of high-speed Ka-band data channels of up to 8Mbit/s. That's enough for a (compressed) hidef video stream. And it's possible to have multiple channels simultaneously. (And, actually, they just have a new service capable of 64mbps that they recently announced for broadcast purposes... it will be available when the next-gen constellation is up in 2017.) By the time any commercial space hotel is even close to launch, there will be plenty of resources from Iridium.

Let us know when Iridium gets that spectrum.
Who says they need extra spectrum for that bandwidth? From what I understand, it's just diverting resources that would otherwise service other customers. Obviously, you're going to pay a premium.

Iridium is an established company, with satellites being built right now. I'm pretty sure the onus is on those saying they won't have that capability (such as yourself).

Iridium has a tiny amount of spectrum now to support its current user base at something like 2400 bps per connection. Switching to a different band at a higher bandwidth would be very difficult and costly.

Iridium does have second generation satellites being built to support its current user base at the lower bandwidth.

AFAIK, there are no solid plans to provide high bandwidth connectivity from LEO platforms.
(Edited out my snark)
http://www.iridium.com/about/IridiumNEXT/Technology.aspx
You can already get 132kbps connections using the current, already-existing Iridium constellation. The next-gen network will be capable of 64mbps connections.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Danderman on 12/02/2013 04:36 am
]You should do research before making such assertions.
http://www.iridium.com/about/IridiumNEXT/Technology.aspx
You can already get 132kbps connections using the current, already-existing Iridium constellation. The next-gen network will be capable of 64mbps connections.

You are correct, I am way behind the times on this stuff.

Iridium figured out a way to gang together a bunch of 2.4 kbps channels that no one was using to enable a quasi-broadband system, basically using all of the capacity of a comsat flying over the ocean for one connection (this is only offered for maritime users, since the ocean is not really filled with many standard Iridium users).

The IridiumNEXT broadband is new to me. This uses the Proteus II bus, so there isn't a lot of power for many users at that baud rate, so by ganging together multiple  user circuits, they can provide quasi-broadband for a small number of users. The Ka-band product simply uses the feeder link bandwidth for even fewer users, since once that is in use, the comsat loses the capability of communicating with a terrestrial gateway.

Having said that,  no flavor of Iridium will be useful for a space platform in LEO, since the satellites are so low that their propagation cones are too small at orbital altitudes for much communication. There might be enough signal time for short bursts of data that could support a constellation like Planet Labs in very low LEO, but not enough for a commercial space platform.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: JohnFornaro on 12/03/2013 01:43 pm
Just stating some assumptions are low and other are high without qualifying why and what a better estimate is, is meaningless.

Uhhhhh.... Welcome to the forum?

Seriously, great thread idea.

Couple of thoughts:

1. The time spent should be five to seven days. With a day of travel up and down added to it.  There's nothing to do up there, except, well, you know.  Cost of ordinary consumables is rather high.  If possible, the consumables should be brought up with each tourist flight.  Afraid you will have to do some research on what to bring, and about how much it would cost to launch.  Whatever you do, use high figures for this cost, given your likely experience in these things.

2. It's not clear if you have accounted for the crew.  Here on Earth, we let adults occupy the room, because any adult knows how to open the hotel door and leave.  Up there, there will be many buttons to not touch, and there needs to be crew; probably two, I'd say.  That's a cost.

3.  Twelve people a year is not completely unrealistic, but two the first year, four the next, and six the next, is probably more realistic, even though that adversely affects the income side of your spreadsheet.  There's no point in looking at that data from the maximum number of visitors.  maybe the first trip breaks even, but the second trip needs to be profitable.  I don't think I would bother with amortization.  Just try to make realistic figures for the first three years.

4.  Two tourists, two crew, and cargo in a Dragon.  No more, no less.  IMO.  Ticket price might have to double, at first.

I've increased cost of Other services as response to Danderman, from 10 to 15 mill. per mission.

True, Danderman gave you his seat of the pants guess that your costs were too low.  Unfortunately, you are making a seat of the pants response, and increasing the expenses by an arbitrary amount, without support.

Additionally, you cannot assume that launch costs will be reduced significantly.  It is far more probable that they will go up.  If you have evidence to the contrary, you should provide it, if credibility is one of your personal goals in this effort.

Like Danderman said, "There is therefore a lot of magic in the expense side of the analysis."  Your choice is to take personal affront, or attempt to reduce the "magic".

FWIW, so to speak.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: go4mars on 12/03/2013 11:05 pm
Millionaires may make their own beds but they will not scrub the walls.
I'm not sure what kind of millionaire's you're anticipating.  But in general - tell someone the price of a "make a mess" trip versus a "do your chores" trip, and I'd think the majority would find time to feed the slig tanks, or whatever needs doing. 
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/04/2013 01:28 am
]You should do research before making such assertions.
http://www.iridium.com/about/IridiumNEXT/Technology.aspx
You can already get 132kbps connections using the current, already-existing Iridium constellation. The next-gen network will be capable of 64mbps connections.

You are correct, I am way behind the times on this stuff.

Iridium figured out a way to gang together a bunch of 2.4 kbps channels that no one was using to enable a quasi-broadband system, basically using all of the capacity of a comsat flying over the ocean for one connection (this is only offered for maritime users, since the ocean is not really filled with many standard Iridium users).

The IridiumNEXT broadband is new to me. This uses the Proteus II bus, so there isn't a lot of power for many users at that baud rate, so by ganging together multiple  user circuits, they can provide quasi-broadband for a small number of users. The Ka-band product simply uses the feeder link bandwidth for even fewer users, since once that is in use, the comsat loses the capability of communicating with a terrestrial gateway.

Having said that,  no flavor of Iridium will be useful for a space platform in LEO, since the satellites are so low that their propagation cones are too small at orbital altitudes for much communication. There might be enough signal time for short bursts of data that could support a constellation like Planet Labs in very low LEO, but not enough for a commercial space platform.
In an update to that, there's always MEO or, especially, GSO:
There's a discussion on ARocket on this topic.

Henry Spencer pointed out that Spacehab's proposal for a commercial ISS module used Inmarsat for communications. Maybe Jim can shed some light, there.

I see absolutely no show-stoppers, here. You are correct that connecting via Iridium may be spotty (although I wonder if you could communicate via the intra-network links Iridium uses to talk between birds?), but there are several solutions there.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: TrevorMonty on 12/04/2013 07:29 am
With a two BA330 module station, one could be used for commercial manufacturing/labs while second module could be used accommodation and tourists. Any commercial operation would probably require semi/permanent manning by renter's staff ie technicians/scientists. If manned the station would require at least one capsule(eg Dragon) astronaut/crewman for permanently docked capsule. This crewman could also be responsible for station maintenance.

Regular tourist flights would enable staff and crew to be rotated and for resupplying station, plus returning manufactured products/ lab samples to earth. Without regular tourist flights commercial operations would be very expensive as they would have to pay for dedicated flights.

Any staff on station would need some training in operation of capsule and station just in case of emergency. In regards to tourist flights there maybe a requirement for 2 crew and 5 passengers, crew would also double as tour guides.

The of biggest costs will be fuel for orbit adjustment of station, a SEP should help reduce this considerably.
One possible solution is to use visiting 2nd stages to give the station a push, these 2nd stages would require small secondary engine as main engine would be to much. Not sure how feasible this is.





Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: RonM on 12/04/2013 03:45 pm
What would improve the business model would be to include business trips. If the space station 'hotel' also had a section for experiments, then private or government researchers could go there to setup experiments and bring them back. You'd probably make most of your money from that.

Also host some instruments on the outside to turn it into an Earth resources satellite. Google might pay 'rent' for their own camera to update Google Maps. Weather bureaus might buy data from your instruments.

There are lots of possibilities to boost income. These extra revenue streams could allow you to lower the cost of trips for tourists and increase the number of customers.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: TrevorMonty on 12/04/2013 05:27 pm
They maybe  able to sell a few seats as prizes in marketing campaigns. Similar to load of seats that XCOR sold for men's after shave campaign.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Norm38 on 12/08/2013 12:44 am
With a two BA330 module station, one could be used for commercial manufacturing/labs while second module could be used accommodation and tourists.

Don't all the proposals for industrial use require very low vibration?  Is that possible with tourists bouncing around in the other module?  Or maybe they could share a power/solar array truss in between and get damping that way?

What a hotel really needs to sell rooms, is amenities.  The second BA330 would ideally be mostly open space for zero-g fun/sports.  It would also provide the life support redundancy and cargo space a commercial hotel would probably require.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Danderman on 12/08/2013 03:43 pm
What would be interesting would be an analysis of the MirCorp MiniStation concept, assuming that each Soyuz brought up 2 paying passengers, and there were 3 - 4 missions per year. Each Soyuz would also bring all consumables required by the crew, and there would be no support crew at the MiniStation between missions.

Assuming that the tourists paid $35 million for an 11 day flight, there might be a business case there.  The trick would be the agreement with Roskosmos and Energia to defray hardware costs.

Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: chalz on 12/09/2013 06:25 am
Getting hardware costs down is the trick. At the moment progress is only being made with launchers and unmanned operation. Experience with LEO habitats and HSF operations has not even started. The gap from experiments to commercial exploitation is vast. Compare the first satelites to now or rocket planes from the 50's and now.

If a 'space hotel' means a commercially funded venue in LEO for short stay open to the public. Then if you notice that what we have currently are the ISS and Dragon or Shenzhou and Tiangong. Judging by this, it is not possible with present technology.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: guckyfan on 12/09/2013 07:39 am
If a 'space hotel' means a commercially funded venue in LEO for short stay open to the public. Then if you notice that what we have currently are the ISS and Dragon or Shenzhou and Tiangong. Judging by this, it is not possible with present technology.

You are dismissing Bigelow BA-330. It has not yet flown, true. But the technology of inflatable orbiting structures has been demonstrated and will soon be demonstrated on the ISS.

Present technology is not limited to systems that have already flown.

Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: pathfinder_01 on 12/09/2013 02:12 pm

If a 'space hotel' means a commercially funded venue in LEO for short stay open to the public. Then if you notice that what we have currently are the ISS and Dragon or Shenzhou and Tiangong. Judging by this, it is not possible with present technology.

Dragon at the moment is limited to cargo, current version can not support crew.  Shezhou isn't up for commercail use. Soyuz however has carried tourist to the ISS when it carries out other duities.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Danderman on 12/15/2013 06:13 am
The current situation with the ISS Pump Module illustrates how trying to cost a space hotel and ignoring the ISS experience will lead to bad economic models.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Garrett on 12/15/2013 07:45 am
The current situation with the ISS Pump Module illustrates how trying to cost a space hotel and ignoring the ISS experience will lead to bad economic models.
Indeed. Any future commercial space "hotel" will almost certainly need to be serviceable without spacewalks for a start. I'm not sure what Bigelow has in mind in that regard.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: MikeAtkinson on 12/15/2013 09:17 am
Looking at the second spreadsheet on the first page about 2/3 of the revenue goes to the launch provider(s), 15% to the manufacturer (which would decrease if operated for more years) and the rest to the operator.

The manufacturer is highly likely to make a profit, as is the launch provider(s), most of the risk seems to be on the operator.

This leads me to the following conclusions:

1. It is highly advantageous for the launch provider(s), not only do they get recurring business, but the extra volume will allow them to have lower unit costs making them more competitive in other markets.

2. Profitability is better with a high number of tourists per year, the faster the number of tourists can be ramped up the better.

3. If costs can be shared with some other use of the station, especially in the early years, the whole thing looks more viable.

4. The manufacturer and operator should be separate companies. The operator should lease out space to a hotelier, space research organisation(s), space manufacturing companies, governments, etc.

5. A second station looks like it would be more profitable than the first - lower pre-use costs as no development required, proven market (hence lower cost of finance), further decrease in launch costs, being able to learn from the mistakes made on the first station.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: JazzFan on 12/15/2013 04:14 pm
How will the operational needs to keep the station working impact the customer experience for a commercial venture?  What would be the marketing strategy?

Come and spend 20-25 million to get to orbit, spend a day unpacking your own supplies.  Oh, and while would you mind performing a little maintenance to keep the station operating.  A commercial station will similar operations as ISS and require a crew to perform the tasks.  A launch crew of 7 would require one pilot, one maintenance crew, and 5 passengers.  This limits the paying customers per flight to 5 limiting revenue and increasing price per flight for space tourists.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Danderman on 12/16/2013 06:53 pm
The current situation with the ISS Pump Module illustrates how trying to cost a space hotel and ignoring the ISS experience will lead to bad economic models.
Indeed. Any future commercial space "hotel" will almost certainly need to be serviceable without spacewalks for a start. I'm not sure what Bigelow has in mind in that regard.

That is why I suggested looking at a MirCorp MiniStation 1 concept rather than a large platform for initial commercial operations.
Title: Re: Viability of a Private/Commercial Space Hotel
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/16/2013 08:43 pm
The current situation with the ISS Pump Module illustrates how trying to cost a space hotel and ignoring the ISS experience will lead to bad economic models.
Indeed. Any future commercial space "hotel" will almost certainly need to be serviceable without spacewalks for a start. I'm not sure what Bigelow has in mind in that regard.
I am pretty sure robotic servicing will help this significantly. And I know a certain company that can help... http://blog.altius-space.com/