I guess you could say that Ares 1 is not a given either.
Quote from: R.Simko on 02/12/2009 12:09 amI guess you could say that Ares 1 is not a given either.That only applies whether that the program goes forward and not that won't be able to work
Seems that NASA deems Falcon-9 to be a given.
The blurb from SpaceX estimates 1000 "high quality" jobs at the Cape, with 14 astronauts per year to the station. Is that 1000 additional over the non-manned requirements? How does that level of staffing compare to other operations? Also, those 14 are an even multiple of Dragon's capacity, so is he proposing just 2 launches per year? With the level of CRS activity on the manifest, the whole arrangement is starting to look like Soyuz-west; a 1-for-1 equivalent to Russian launches to ISS.
Curious that SpaceX makes a big deal that "NASA has already reviewed our cargo F9/Dragon and is comfortable enough to assign it the bulk of the operational transport duties following Shuttle retirement".
Quote from: Lars_J on 02/11/2009 06:28 pmNUAETIUS,SpaceX weren't the first to come up with a 'truncated cone' capsule - I seem to recall some early OSP/CEV proposals that had the same outline, and probably earlier examples as well. The shape is an efficient volume/mass trade-off.I looked at those, and all the other capsules had a different top to bottom ratio, different window placement (or no windows), different placement of the door... etc. All I am pointing out is just like the Chinese space capsule looks and shares many design characteristics with the Soyuz (by design), this capsule seems to share a lot of design characteristics with the Dragon. It can either be seen as India copying SpaceX, or India made the same design choice as SpaceX, either way it is a validation of SpaceX's design that the Indian Space Agency made the same choice.I think it's great, can't wait for the day that Iran, China, India, the US, the EU, Russia, and Japan all have independent means to get to space. Completion is good.
NUAETIUS,SpaceX weren't the first to come up with a 'truncated cone' capsule - I seem to recall some early OSP/CEV proposals that had the same outline, and probably earlier examples as well. The shape is an efficient volume/mass trade-off.
Quote from: Jim on 02/11/2009 10:03 pmThat is just plain silly. Falcon 9 is not a given. Cargo Dragon is not a given. Again, this is like expecting an expansion NFL franchise to win a Super Bowl their first year in the leagueSo would Orbital be the Arizona Cardinals in that analogy..... which reminds me.
That is just plain silly. Falcon 9 is not a given. Cargo Dragon is not a given. Again, this is like expecting an expansion NFL franchise to win a Super Bowl their first year in the league
I think it's great, can't wait for the day that Iran, China, India, the US, the EU, Russia, and Japan all have independent means to get to space. Completion is good.
Ahhh....but the question is will Iran's capsule come standard with a bomb jacket, or the ability to launch 'space mines'?
Quote from: R.Simko on 02/11/2009 02:57 pmGreat video of Falcon 9/Dragon. Elon Musk is right, America can not only save money and close the gap by funding COTS D, but it can create American jobs and a back-up system to whatever rocket system NASA goes with. That is just plain silly. Falcon 9 is not a given. Cargo Dragon is not a given. Again, this is like expecting an expansion NFL franchise to win a Super Bowl their first year in the league
Great video of Falcon 9/Dragon. Elon Musk is right, America can not only save money and close the gap by funding COTS D, but it can create American jobs and a back-up system to whatever rocket system NASA goes with.
Quote from: Jim on 02/11/2009 10:03 pmQuote from: R.Simko on 02/11/2009 02:57 pmGreat video of Falcon 9/Dragon. Elon Musk is right, America can not only save money and close the gap by funding COTS D, but it can create American jobs and a back-up system to whatever rocket system NASA goes with. That is just plain silly. Falcon 9 is not a given. Cargo Dragon is not a given. Again, this is like expecting an expansion NFL franchise to win a Super Bowl their first year in the leagueWhat is a given? EELV? Launching what? Orion is not a "given" either.
Quote from: NUAETIUS on 02/11/2009 06:56 pmI think it's great, can't wait for the day that Iran, China, India, the US, the EU, Russia, and Japan all have independent means to get to space. Completion is good.Ahhh....but the question is will Iran's capsule come standard with a bomb jacket, or the ability to launch 'space mines'?
Dragon has at least limited ability to survive anything other than Musk going bankrupt.
Orion is in some sense dangling by a political thread. Constellation can be cancelled by the stroke of a pen, and I suspect any serious malf on Ares I-X would trigger just that. Dragon has at least limited ability to survive anything other than Musk going bankrupt. I suspect without COTS-D funding, manned Dragon will never materialize, and cargo Dragon would probably stop if the US withdrew from ISS, since it has nowhere else to go. I don't think we'll quit ISS before 2016, but you never know.
Quote from: William Barton on 02/12/2009 07:46 pmDragon has at least limited ability to survive anything other than Musk going bankrupt.Is there any potential technical reason that F9/Dragon won't work?Short of something that I have missed in all this discussion, I don't see any reason why it won't. Sure, Elon might loose one or two of them initially, but eventually he will be successful. So, despite Jim's protests to the contrary, isn't it safe to assume that from a purely technical standpoint F9/Dragon is a given?Now, SpaceX actually making money with them and being financially viable is a whole other story that I heartily agree bears some level of skepticism.
Nobody ever lost a bet by underestimating the stupidity and short-sightedness of American politicians.