Author Topic: LIVE: Shenzhou 9 (SZ-9), Long March 2F/G (CZ-2F/G) - Jiuquan - June 16, 2012  (Read 695932 times)

Online Satori

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Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #20 on: 01/25/2012 07:22 am »
There are rumors of a possible delay to the second semester of 2012.

Offline Danderman

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Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #21 on: 01/25/2012 09:32 pm »
I wish that the people who claim that the Chinese are going to land people on the Moon Real Soon Now would get together with the people who are watching how the Chinese actually meet their schedules.

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #22 on: 01/26/2012 12:08 pm »
I wish that the people who claim that the Chinese are going to land people on the Moon Real Soon Now would get together with the people who are watching how the Chinese actually meet their schedules.

I think this posting should be in the Chinese manned lunar programme thread.   However, a definition of "real soon" would be useful.   In July 1999 I predicted a Chinese landing in time for the 50th anniversary of Apollo 11, but since then we know from Chinese statements that they are thinking about the middle of the next decade (2020s) which would stretch the definition of "real soon" somewhat.
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #23 on: 02/01/2012 12:47 pm »
I have been looking at the recent decay rate of Tiangong 1 and have come up with revised estimates for the Shenzhou 9 launch, assuming that it comes when the orbit reaches the level of the 31 circuits repeater.

Assuming a constant decay rate then the launch would be around June 10.

More realistically, the lower the orbit decays the more that the decay rate will increase, and this could result in a projected launch around April 15.

Of course, orbital manoeuvres by Tiangong or other changes in the decay rate caused by attitude changes, etc, could negate these calculations.   If I had to put my money on a date then it would be the second half of April, but time will tell.
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Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #24 on: 02/15/2012 05:01 am »
WOW.... Shenzhou 9 will be launched in June.... UNMANNED!? That's beyond surprising!  :o

http://www.9ifly.cn/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=964&pid=176961&fromuid=19646
« Last Edit: 02/15/2012 05:03 am by Galactic Penguin SST »
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Offline apace

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Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #25 on: 02/15/2012 05:27 am »
WOW.... Shenzhou 9 will be launched in June.... UNMANNED!? That's beyond surprising!  :o

http://www.9ifly.cn/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=964&pid=176961&fromuid=19646

If it's true, then it looks like they found more problems than we expected...

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #26 on: 02/15/2012 05:32 am »
WOW.... Shenzhou 9 will be launched in June.... UNMANNED!? That's beyond surprising!  :o
http://www.9ifly.cn/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=964&pid=176961&fromuid=19646
If it's true, then it looks like they found more problems than we expected...

If this is correct then it would explain the delay in the Shenzhou 9 launch beyond March and also the shift of Shenzhou 10 to next year.

Have I missed something which indicates that there were some serious problems with Shenzhou 8?
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

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Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #27 on: 02/15/2012 05:34 am »
WOW.... Shenzhou 9 will be launched in June.... UNMANNED!? That's beyond surprising!  :o
http://www.9ifly.cn/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=964&pid=176961&fromuid=19646
If it's true, then it looks like they found more problems than we expected...

If this is correct then it would explain the delay in the Shenzhou 9 launch beyond March and also the shift of Shenzhou 10 to next year.

Have I missed something which indicates that there were some serious problems with Shenzhou 8?

Haven't seen any rumors about that. Maybe the Chinese ran out of money for a manned flight this year.  ;)

Seriously, it could just mean that the Chinese are cautious, or that there are delays in the training of the next crew.
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Offline aquanaut99

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Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #28 on: 02/15/2012 05:44 am »
WOW.... Shenzhou 9 will be launched in June.... UNMANNED!? That's beyond surprising!  :o

http://www.9ifly.cn/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=964&pid=176961&fromuid=19646

This is a major surprise and let-down, if true.

I must admit, I hadn't expected that. Delays, yes, but not another unmanned flight. I also fail to see the point in it. If the crew's not ready, why not wait longer until it is? Or would that mean that SZ-10 would then have to be delayed beyond the life-expectancy of TG-1?

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #29 on: 02/15/2012 05:49 am »
If there were no problems with Shenzhou 8 and the problem is a delay in crew training pushing the first visit to Tiangong 1 beyond the module's operating lifetime, why not just fly the delayed Shenzhou 9 manned and shift Shenzhou 10 to Tianging 2 so that module hosts three visits?
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

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Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #30 on: 02/15/2012 05:53 am »
If there were no problems with Shenzhou 8 and the problem is a delay in crew training pushing the first visit to Tiangong 1 beyond the module's operating lifetime, why not just fly the delayed Shenzhou 9 manned and shift Shenzhou 10 to Tianging 2 so that module hosts three visits?

Dunno. Even the Chinese are baffled on this piece of news. What is strange is that the same news report said that SZ-9 may see the test of hatch opening between SZ-9 and TG-1.  ???
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Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #31 on: 02/15/2012 05:58 am »
If there were no problems with Shenzhou 8 and the problem is a delay in crew training pushing the first visit to Tiangong 1 beyond the module's operating lifetime, why not just fly the delayed Shenzhou 9 manned and shift Shenzhou 10 to Tianging 2 so that module hosts three visits?
Dunno. Even the Chinese are baffled on this piece of news. What is strange is that the same news report said that SZ-9 may see the test of hatch opening between SZ-9 and TG-1.  ???

My wierd humour has come up with the concept of a dummy astronaut being mounted on a catapult in SZ9 and when the hatches open it is fired from SZ9 to TG1 as the first crew transfer .......
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #32 on: 02/15/2012 07:40 am »
WOW.... Shenzhou 9 will be launched in June.... UNMANNED!? That's beyond surprising!  :o
http://www.9ifly.cn/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=964&pid=176961&fromuid=19646

That's a post to an internet forum with only http://www.sina.com.cn/ given as the source. Do you have a better link?

Reading the Google translation, it seems that Shenzhou 9 will pressurise the space between the docked vehicles, making sure there are no leaks. Maybe they had a problem with this on Shenzhou 8.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

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Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #33 on: 02/15/2012 07:53 am »
WOW.... Shenzhou 9 will be launched in June.... UNMANNED!? That's beyond surprising!  :o
http://www.9ifly.cn/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=964&pid=176961&fromuid=19646

That's a post to an internet forum with only http://www.sina.com.cn/ given as the source. Do you have a better link?

Reading the Google translation, it seems that Shenzhou 9 will pressurise the space between the docked vehicles, making sure there are no leaks. Maybe they had a problem with this on Shenzhou 8.

Hold on a second. The news article has disappeared from the website of the newspaper that published the article.

Conspiracy? Fake? ::)
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Offline MrTim

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Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #34 on: 02/15/2012 08:23 am »
If there were no problems with Shenzhou 8 and the problem is a delay in crew training pushing the first visit to Tiangong 1 beyond the module's operating lifetime, why not just fly the delayed Shenzhou 9 manned and shift Shenzhou 10 to Tianging 2 so that module hosts three visits?
Dunno. Even the Chinese are baffled on this piece of news. What is strange is that the same news report said that SZ-9 may see the test of hatch opening between SZ-9 and TG-1.  ???

My wierd humour has come up with the concept of a dummy astronaut being mounted on a catapult in SZ9 and when the hatches open it is fired from SZ9 to TG1 as the first crew transfer .......
Or... they could always resort to their earlier policy on crew selection:

http://www.theonion.com/video/china-launches-first-willing-manned-mission-into-s,14273/

 ;D Sorry, couldn't resist....

Offline Space Pete

Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #35 on: 02/15/2012 12:35 pm »
What is strange is that the same news report said that SZ-9 may see the test of hatch opening between SZ-9 and TG-1.  ???

Ummm...Chinese Robonaut? :D
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Offline tonyq

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Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #36 on: 02/15/2012 05:34 pm »
Here is an English language version of the same story, which seems to be translated from the original Chinese reports, although it does quote a specific individual within CAST:-

http://english.cri.cn/6909/2012/02/15/2941s681248.htm

Although our friends on the 9ifly.cn forum are now casting doubt on the original source of this information, as it has apparently disappeared, it does look legitimate.

This report does make very specific mention of testing the 'passageway' between SZ and TG which seems to imply one of three things:-

1. Whatever testing of the integrity of the docking they did on SZ-8 wasn't 100% successful, and they feel they need to re-visit it?

2. They planned to test this in manned flight (this could be why there was uncertainty over whether the crew of SZ-9 would actually enter TG) but no longer feel comfortable doing this, for whatever reason?

3. It was never really planned to fly a crew on SZ-9 and it was always planned to test this in unmanned mode.
« Last Edit: 02/15/2012 05:37 pm by tonyq »

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #37 on: 02/15/2012 05:44 pm »
Let us hope that that if there was some sort of pressure equalisation problem it was with SZ8 rather than TG1.

I am sure that the Chinese always hoped to fly SZ9 as a manned mission, but with the option of it being unmanned if there was a problem on SZ8.

With the original story apparently disappearing, maybe it was plain wrong?   If SZ9 is unmanned this must be the first major setback in the programme since the SZ2 descent module's "hard" landing.

Again, if there was some sort of pressurisation problem somewhere within SZ8 I wonder if the Chinese thought "Soyuz 11", even though their crew would be in pressure suits all of the way down.
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Offline Space Pete

Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #38 on: 02/15/2012 06:53 pm »
Even if there is a problem in pressurising the TG/SZ vestibule, it still doesn't explain the need to fly uncrewed, since it is not a life-threatening problem.

They could still launch fully crewed, and if the pressurisation works, great, open the hatches, and if it doesn't, bring the crew back down as planned.

That however would constitute a failure, and so I think going uncrewed is more to do with saving face, since if they say they aren't intending to open the hatches, then they cannot fail to do so. ;)
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Offline vill

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Re: Shenzhou 9
« Reply #39 on: 02/16/2012 04:09 am »
If it was intended to test TG accesibility during SZ-8 and it was not successful, maybe it was planned to solve problem and send unmanned SZ-9 to try it again. I doubt anyone wanted manned SZ-9 after flight of SZ-8 - as it thus not fulfilled requirement for manned flight. Moving flights of next spacecrafts to the right maybe means only difficulties to achieve it. Then it cannot be connected with astronaut training. Financial difficulties seem to sound good, but more than improbable.  ;D

I am in some way disappointed finally, because only a few months ago I was thinking that Tiangong-2 somtimes in december could be very interesting step.  ;D
« Last Edit: 02/16/2012 04:45 am by vill »

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