Author Topic: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis  (Read 465288 times)

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #280 on: 08/12/2014 07:16 pm »
Some steps can also be done in parallel, SpaceX just rented a whole lotta cape space. They can do the early prep work on several stages at once, without delays and any one holding the rest hostage.

I suspect part of the quick turn around between Orbcomm, Asiasat 8, Asiasat 6, and CRS-4 is them prepping things in the extra space so they are ready to execute as soon as the log jams at pad clears. I highly doubt the rides for Asiasat 8, 6, and CRS-4 sat with plastic tarps over them while they waited for Orbcomm to fly. I suspect they did what they could during the wait.
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Offline MTom

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #281 on: 08/13/2014 08:24 am »
It's cleared: pad abort test will be in November.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33423.msg1242301#msg1242301

CRS-4 in September.

What comes for October?

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #282 on: 08/13/2014 11:11 am »
IIRC, the next scheduled launch after CRS-SpX-4 is Orbcomm OG-2/2 and then CRS-SpX-5 in December.
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Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #283 on: 08/13/2014 12:23 pm »
It's cleared: pad abort test will be in November.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33423.msg1242301#msg1242301

CRS-4 in September.

What comes for October?

R & R, Resuscitation and Rehabilitation for Pad Corp  ;D
SpaceX Launch Crews will be on a high and straining at the leash  ::)

edit to keep Lars happy ;) it's quite probable that the limiting factor is not Launch Crew or Production / Testing, but that there is no Space Craft ready for delivery in this month... it's going to happen whether we like it or not...


Edit/Lar: Who is "Lars" ??? There is only ONE Lar, and that is something that many are thankful about! :)
« Last Edit: 08/13/2014 10:55 pm by Lar »
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Offline yg1968

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #284 on: 08/13/2014 04:33 pm »
IIRC, the next scheduled launch after CRS-SpX-4 is Orbcomm OG-2/2 and then CRS-SpX-5 in December.

Yes, slide 25 of this presentation says that Spx-5 is scheduled for December 2014:
http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/ISS-USOS-Program-Status-NAC-Public-July-2014.pdf

Offline MTom

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #285 on: 08/13/2014 08:07 pm »
IIRC, the next scheduled launch after CRS-SpX-4 is Orbcomm OG-2/2 and then CRS-SpX-5 in December.

Very unlikely that Orbcomm comes in October.
The last infos are about a slip to the beginning of 2015.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32503.msg1241009#msg1241009

Offline Kabloona

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #286 on: 08/13/2014 10:30 pm »


What comes for October?


If you believe this schedule, nothing in October:

http://spacexstats.com/upcoming.php

If I dared hazard a schedule prediction it would be:

Aug: ASIASAT 6
Sep: SpX-4
Oct: no launches/reconfigure pad for abort test
Nov: Pad abort test
Dec: Spx-5

with TurkmenSat and Orbcomm slipping to 1Q 2015

edit: deleted incorrect attribution to QuantumG
« Last Edit: 08/14/2014 03:24 am by Kabloona »

Offline QuantumG

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #287 on: 08/13/2014 11:41 pm »
If you believe QuantumG's schedule, nothing in October:

http://spacexstats.com/upcoming.php

My schedule?
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Offline Kabloona

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #288 on: 08/14/2014 03:18 am »
If you believe QuantumG's schedule, nothing in October:

http://spacexstats.com/upcoming.php

My schedule?

Sorry, there was a post upthread that mentioned the spacexstats page and your name in the same sentence, and I drew what is apparently an incorrect conclusion.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32503.msg1240109#msg1240109
« Last Edit: 08/14/2014 03:22 am by Kabloona »

Offline Jcc

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #289 on: 08/17/2014 12:51 pm »


What comes for October?


If you believe this schedule, nothing in October:

http://spacexstats.com/upcoming.php

If I dared hazard a schedule prediction it would be:

Aug: ASIASAT 6
Sep: SpX-4
Oct: no launches/reconfigure pad for abort test
Nov: Pad abort test
Dec: Spx-5

with TurkmenSat and Orbcomm slipping to 1Q 2015

edit: deleted incorrect attribution to QuantumG

According to this:
Now that it's become public knowledge, I can tell you that a full mockup F9 will be used for the pad abort. This is not reuse of an old vehicle.

http://www.spacenews.com/article/launch-report/41515spacex-sets-november-january-dates-for-launch-abort-tests-of-crew-capable

The pad abort will take place on a dummy F9 on the standard T/E, so there may not be any pad reconfiguration necessary.

Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #290 on: 08/18/2014 06:59 pm »
I moved every post after JCC's, just above,  to  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33423 (the in flight launch abort test thread)

It's possible one or two should have stayed. Oh well... you made me do surgery with a hatchet!
« Last Edit: 08/18/2014 07:00 pm by Lar »
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #291 on: 08/25/2014 06:45 pm »
I missed this quote from earlier this month; do SpaceX really still think they can do 5 more launches this year?!

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2585/1

Quote
“At this point, I can say five more launches of the Falcon 9 this year,” said Lauren Dreyer, director of business affairs of SpaceX, during a launch industry panel session at the AIAA Space 2014 conference in San Diego earlier this month, immediately after the most recent Falcon 9 launch.

I guess the statement was before the recent Orbcomm suggestion that they may wait until Q1 2015. But that still leaves 4 rather than the expected 3.
« Last Edit: 08/25/2014 06:46 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline MTom

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #292 on: 08/25/2014 09:11 pm »
I missed this quote from earlier this month; do SpaceX really still think they can do 5 more launches this year?!

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2585/1

Quote
“At this point, I can say five more launches of the Falcon 9 this year,” said Lauren Dreyer, director of business affairs of SpaceX, during a launch industry panel session at the AIAA Space 2014 conference in San Diego earlier this month, immediately after the most recent Falcon 9 launch.

I guess the statement was before the recent Orbcomm suggestion that they may wait until Q1 2015. But that still leaves 4 rather than the expected 3.

AsiaSat6, CRS4, CRS5, Orbcomm (slipped).
For the 5th launch I'm waiting for a third bird from SSL (switched from Ariane?) or the TurkmenSat for this year.
Only a guess.

Offline Lars_J

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #293 on: 08/25/2014 09:51 pm »
Don't forget the max-Q/in-flight abort from VAFB. I know it has slipped to 2015, but at the time of the interview they could still have been hopeful to fit it in before the end of the year.
« Last Edit: 08/25/2014 09:52 pm by Lars_J »

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #294 on: 08/26/2014 09:28 am »
How responsive are satellite manufacturers? As a slot has been vacated in the launch manifest, would SSL be able to bring forward one of their birds in a timely manner for an October launch?
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Offline laika_fr

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #295 on: 09/08/2014 03:22 am »
OG2-M2 does not really free up a slot since Spacex is a tad behind schedule, it just makes the year feasible.
 
ABS 3A/Eutelsat 115 West B & Turkmen 520 E are the coming private contenders.
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Offline HIP2BSQRE

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #296 on: 09/08/2014 03:48 am »
If you believe QuantumG's schedule, nothing in October:

http://spacexstats.com/upcoming.php

My schedule?

This looks doable...an believable...

Offline Kabloona

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #297 on: 09/08/2014 03:42 pm »


What comes for October?


If you believe this schedule, nothing in October:

http://spacexstats.com/upcoming.php

If I dared hazard a schedule prediction it would be:

Aug: ASIASAT 6
Sep: SpX-4
Oct: no launches/reconfigure pad for abort test
Nov: Pad abort test
Dec: Spx-5

with TurkmenSat and Orbcomm slipping to 1Q 2015

edit: deleted incorrect attribution to QuantumG

According to this:
Now that it's become public knowledge, I can tell you that a full mockup F9 will be used for the pad abort. This is not reuse of an old vehicle.

http://www.spacenews.com/article/launch-report/41515spacex-sets-november-january-dates-for-launch-abort-tests-of-crew-capable

The pad abort will take place on a dummy F9 on the standard T/E, so there may not be any pad reconfiguration necessary.

This has been discussed elsewhere (in-flight abort thread) but just for the record here, SpaceX has recently said the pad abort test will in fact be from a truss structure. So I'm sticking by my prediction that the pad abort test will require some time for pad reconfiguration.

Offline Jet Black

Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #298 on: 09/08/2014 03:54 pm »
Just out of interest, doe anyone know what the largest number of launches that an individual company/organization has conducted in a year, in terms of rocket launches with a payload (not missile or rocket tests)?
For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled. -- Richard Feynman

Offline Hauerg

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #299 on: 09/08/2014 04:06 pm »
Just out of interest, doe anyone know what the largest number of launches that an individual company/organization has conducted in a year, in terms of rocket launches with a payload (not missile or rocket tests)?
Including our Soviet friends ?

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