Quote from: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/08/2015 02:47 amQuote from: Chris Bergin on 05/08/2015 02:45 am2:04 UTC for the demise of Progress M-27M - very close to the center of the NORAD prediction window. Over the South Pacific.http://www.federalspace.ru/21474/Farewell Progress M-27M.I don't think the Russians have real time tracking data to confirm this since it would be out of ground station range & it's only half an orbit since then. Maybe that's only the "nominal" decay time...Good note. Added that caveat to the updated article.
Quote from: Chris Bergin on 05/08/2015 02:45 am2:04 UTC for the demise of Progress M-27M - very close to the center of the NORAD prediction window. Over the South Pacific.http://www.federalspace.ru/21474/Farewell Progress M-27M.I don't think the Russians have real time tracking data to confirm this since it would be out of ground station range & it's only half an orbit since then. Maybe that's only the "nominal" decay time...
2:04 UTC for the demise of Progress M-27M - very close to the center of the NORAD prediction window. Over the South Pacific.http://www.federalspace.ru/21474/Farewell Progress M-27M.
But they report that reentry was over the Pacific Ocean, so what was filmed over Buenos Aires?
2:04 UTC for the demise of Progress M-27M - very close to the center of the NORAD prediction window. Over the South Pacific.
I have yet to see any Russian initial claim of reentry that was worth the photons it was screen-displayed on.
Will there be any information on what would have happened if this had been a crewed Soyuz?
NORAD has just issued a new decay prediction at 03:52 UTC, giving the decay time as 02:20 UTC +-1 min at 51° S 87° W, about 1000 km west of the southern tip of South America.
Quote from: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/08/2015 04:26 amNORAD has just issued a new decay prediction at 03:52 UTC, giving the decay time as 02:20 UTC +-1 min at 51° S 87° W, about 1000 km west of the southern tip of South America.Many of us suspect that these +-1 min TIP messages, which only come for some satellites, are based on high altitude infrared early warning sat data. In any case I think this report is reliableAnd now we got the decay message too.
IMHO the NORAD prediction "window"has to be divided by 2 to get the uncertainty around the central decay time; for example the prediction at 2326UTC indicated a decay time of 0152UTC with a window of 180 minutes, it can't be 0152 UTC +/-180 minutes (which would include the time of prediction), it has to be 0152 UTC +/- 90 minutes
Spooky that so many reentries are over the S Pacific. Progress reentered within 1 degree in lat and lon ofthe third stage reentry a week ago. Clearly satellites passing over that particular point of the deep ocean are liableto hear the call of Cthulhu and be dragged down by eldritch tentacles of force.
Quote from: Pheogh on 05/07/2015 07:47 pmWill there be any information on what would have happened if this had been a crewed Soyuz?If the crew wouldn't be able to regain control of the spacecraft, they would likely be dead. Onboard consumables will last for 5.2 days (according to info here), while this spacecraft flew for 11 days.I wonder if this accident will lead to increasing amount of onboard consumables for Soyuz missions (even if it would reduce payload capacity - better safe than sorry).
Spooky that so many reentries are over the S Pacific. Progress reentered within 1 degree in lat and lon ofthe third stage reentry a week ago. Clearly satellites passing over that particular point of the deep ocean are liable