Author Topic: Risk assessment reg. ISS cargo upmass shortage in FY2011 and FY2012 timeframe  (Read 1680 times)

Offline ares-mojo

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I wonder whether there is an internal risk assessment on the subject of having a cargo upmass shortage between the full phase-in of CRS and the end of the STS. I remember from the Augustine Committee's deliberations that even with the currently scheduled CRS flights, for the full 6-crew capability there will likely be a bottleneck somewhere in FY2011 and/or FY2012.

Anyone has any more detailed information?

Offline robertross

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I wonder whether there is an internal risk assessment on the subject of having a cargo upmass shortage between the full phase-in of CRS and the end of the STS. I remember from the Augustine Committee's deliberations that even with the currently scheduled CRS flights, for the full 6-crew capability there will likely be a bottleneck somewhere in FY2011 and/or FY2012.

Anyone has any more detailed information?

I know there was a NASA graph, it might have been on L2 though, that had this inverted V-shape. IIRC, it was questionable at best.

And to add to that: that's just basic requirements with most things working well. As we know, things aren't exactly dependable in real life.
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Offline Danderman

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You can bet that there are tons of such documents, with variants based on no ATV, or no HTV, or no Dragon, or no Cygnus, and combinations of these.  However, the ISSP has already gone through "Nothing but Progress" for cargo and survived, so the feeling of dread is probably not so high these days.


Offline Lee Jay

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You can bet that there are tons of such documents, with variants based on no ATV, or no HTV, or no Dragon, or no Cygnus, and combinations of these.  However, the ISSP has already gone through "Nothing but Progress" for cargo and survived, so the feeling of dread is probably not so high these days.

I'll bet the feeling of being unable to support a 6-person crew is more prevalent.

Offline Danderman

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I'll bet the feeling of being unable to support a 6-person crew is more prevalent.

I would bet that if a Kargo Krunch came, the 6 person crew would be seen as a desirement and not a requirement; the need to preserve station crewing, albeit with a 2 person crew, would become the overarching need, just as in 2003-05.

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