Author Topic: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon  (Read 1529737 times)

Offline gospacex

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2560 on: 02/12/2009 09:08 pm »
Nobody ever lost a bet by underestimating the stupidity and short-sightedness of American politicians.

Wouldn't that be the other way around?

And BTW, politicians of any other country are no better.

Offline William Barton

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2561 on: 02/12/2009 09:36 pm »
Nobody ever lost a bet by underestimating the stupidity and short-sightedness of American politicians.

Wouldn't that be the other way around?

And BTW, politicians of any other country are no better.

I'm sure you're right, I just don't know any non-US politicians personally. As for that stupidity, I doubt if anybody ever lost a bet overestimating it, either. I actually think the only reason STS lived to fly is because Carter was an engineer, and it's survived from that day to this by simple inertia. Does anyone really believe if the US manned space program had been canceled, our national pride would have been stung into action by endless renditions of Salyut circling in LEO? If the Soviets had beat us to the Moon, we'd've gone to Mars. But they didn't, and here we are today.

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2562 on: 02/12/2009 10:38 pm »
SpaceX are claiming COTS-D will take 2 years, slip that to 3 years plus start in the new financial year in September.  We then end up in a presidential election year.  Interesting. 

Can any one think of a new manned LEO mission that Obama may wish to claim credit for?  (I.E. fund via NASA.)

Offline mlorrey

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2563 on: 02/12/2009 10:56 pm »
SpaceX are claiming COTS-D will take 2 years, slip that to 3 years plus start in the new financial year in September.  We then end up in a presidential election year.  Interesting. 

Can any one think of a new manned LEO mission that Obama may wish to claim credit for?  (I.E. fund via NASA.)

Good question. Judd Gregg just rejected the Commerce Secty slot for various reasons, not sure if commercial space flight was one of them
« Last Edit: 02/15/2009 04:58 pm by Ronsmytheiii »
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Offline mlorrey

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2564 on: 02/12/2009 11:32 pm »
Orion is in some sense dangling by a political thread. Constellation can be cancelled by the stroke of a pen, and I suspect any serious malf on Ares I-X would trigger just that. Dragon has at least limited ability to survive anything other than Musk going bankrupt. I suspect without COTS-D funding, manned Dragon will never materialize, and cargo Dragon would probably stop if the US withdrew from ISS, since it has nowhere else to go. I don't think we'll quit ISS before 2016, but you never know.

Musk is not hinging on NASA funding as the be all end all of the SpaceX program. Its good business to have, and Dragon will be a far more affordable option for ISS development than Orion OR Shuttle. If Obama extends shuttle more, you can bet the GOP is going to skewer him over it when there is Dragon available.

Provided Bigelow puts up Sundancer, there will be more traffic going there for Dragon than ISS. Tourist astronauts will not be prepared for long duration stays, so there would be a lot more short duration trips.

BTW: Has anybody else gotten an email this week from spacex requesting help lobbying congress on COTS-D?
« Last Edit: 02/12/2009 11:33 pm by mlorrey »
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Offline MBK004

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2565 on: 02/12/2009 11:33 pm »
BTW: Has anybody else gotten an email this week from spacex requesting help lobbying congress on COTS-D?
Yes

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2566 on: 02/13/2009 10:50 am »
Can any one think of a new manned LEO mission that Obama may wish to claim credit for?  (I.E. fund via NASA.)

Depending on how it is 'spun', just bringing Shuttle replacement (in some form or another, even if it is only seats bought on COTS-D Dragon and DreamChaser) far enough forward so there is a minimal gap and takes place during his term of office could be enough.  Something along the lines of: "When I came to office, America was looking at a 5-year spaceflight gap! I made that go away with my Vision (tm)!" :P
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Offline William Barton

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2567 on: 02/13/2009 11:40 am »
Orion is in some sense dangling by a political thread. Constellation can be cancelled by the stroke of a pen, and I suspect any serious malf on Ares I-X would trigger just that. Dragon has at least limited ability to survive anything other than Musk going bankrupt. I suspect without COTS-D funding, manned Dragon will never materialize, and cargo Dragon would probably stop if the US withdrew from ISS, since it has nowhere else to go. I don't think we'll quit ISS before 2016, but you never know.

Musk is not hinging on NASA funding as the be all end all of the SpaceX program. Its good business to have, and Dragon will be a far more affordable option for ISS development than Orion OR Shuttle. If Obama extends shuttle more, you can bet the GOP is going to skewer him over it when there is Dragon available.

Provided Bigelow puts up Sundancer, there will be more traffic going there for Dragon than ISS. Tourist astronauts will not be prepared for long duration stays, so there would be a lot more short duration trips.

BTW: Has anybody else gotten an email this week from spacex requesting help lobbying congress on COTS-D?

I didn't say Musk was "hinging on NASA funding," merely suggesting that absent any other destination, he'd have no comparable alternative funding source. Two points about Bigelow: one is, we're not seeing any further progress, and I wonder if problems are beginning to accrue over there. Sundancer qualifies for "Jim's law." It's not a given. ISS is a given through 2016, because it's aloft and we have treaty obligations. The other point is, Bigelow isn't offering the up-front financing that Musk needs to complete COTS-D, and by accepting COTS money, SpaceX has placed itself out of the running for the $50mln prize Bigelow offered.

Offline Jim

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2568 on: 02/13/2009 11:41 am »
Let's keep the paranoia and  unsubstantiated conspiracy ideas off this site
« Last Edit: 02/15/2009 05:27 pm by Ronsmytheiii »

Offline yg1968

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2569 on: 02/15/2009 05:32 pm »
Is the $1.5B cost for a manned Falcon 9 realistic?

If it was that cheap, ESA would have already manned their Ariane 5. My understanding is that they are hesitating because of the important costs involved.

Offline Jim

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2570 on: 02/15/2009 06:06 pm »
Is the $1.5B cost for a manned Falcon 9 realistic?

If it was that cheap, ESA would have already manned their Ariane 5. My understanding is that they are hesitating because of the important costs involved.

yes, ESA costs are not the same as a private companies.  ESA is white collar welfare much like NASA

Offline MichaelF

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2571 on: 02/15/2009 08:50 pm »


If it was that cheap, ESA would have already manned their Ariane 5. My understanding is that they are hesitating because of the important costs involved.

They are also hesitating because several of the major ESA member states are extremely unwilling to have anything to do with manned spaceflight.  I'd be surprised if they agreed to fund anything that would lead towards that (such as manrating Ariane), without a 180deg break with current policy.

Online mmeijeri

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2572 on: 02/15/2009 09:14 pm »
They are also hesitating because several of the major ESA member states are extremely unwilling to have anything to do with manned spaceflight.  I'd be surprised if they agreed to fund anything that would lead towards that (such as manrating Ariane), without a 180deg break with current policy.

I know the UK for one is against manned spaceflight. Do you know which additional countries oppose it? You no doubt know this, but it may be useful to note that the ESA has both mandatory and optional programs. Member states can decide which programs to "subscribe" to.
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Offline nomadd22

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2573 on: 02/15/2009 09:20 pm »
Is the $1.5B cost for a manned Falcon 9 realistic?

If it was that cheap, ESA would have already manned their Ariane 5. My understanding is that they are hesitating because of the important costs involved.
There isn't that much difference in hardware than what they've already mostly built. They say the LAS is the main thing they need to develop to get going. I'm not sure if they're thinking of contracting that one.
 SpaceX's main problem so far seems to be ignoring past lessons in their zeal to reinvent the wheel. All of their failures so far are from things that, retrospectively, should have easily been caught and prevented by an experienced team. Why they'd use cheap aluminum nuts in salt air or cut the staging interval to 1 1/2 seconds is a little hard to fathom. Since they don't and won't have Atlas's success record for a lot of years, it's going to take some serious convincing before NASA or it's partners will start putting people on top of an F9.
 NASA and ESA have the same problem. To get something funded you have to give a lot of politicians a reason to vote for it. Not always the best way to run a lean program.

Offline MichaelF

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2574 on: 02/15/2009 09:31 pm »
They are also hesitating because several of the major ESA member states are extremely unwilling to have anything to do with manned spaceflight.  I'd be surprised if they agreed to fund anything that would lead towards that (such as manrating Ariane), without a 180deg break with current policy.

I know the UK for one is against manned spaceflight. Do you know which additional countries oppose it? You no doubt know this, but it may be useful to note that the ESA has both mandatory and optional programs. Member states can decide which programs to "subscribe" to.

Germany, France and Italy all objected to the manned portions of the Aurora program.

Online mmeijeri

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2575 on: 02/15/2009 09:47 pm »
Germany, France and Italy all objected to the manned portions of the Aurora program.

I'm surprised to hear that. Are you talking about last year's ministerial conference or the one before that? I thought DLR was pushing for an evolution towards a manned ATV, the ARV being a first step. Isn't IXV meant as a precursor to a manned vehicle? And the Italians have done a lot of work on Columbus, MPLM and ICC.
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Offline Antares

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2576 on: 02/16/2009 04:13 am »
Please take the discussions about ESA to the appropriate threads.  Thanks.
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Offline iamlucky13

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2577 on: 02/16/2009 05:31 am »
Musk is not hinging on NASA funding as the be all end all of the SpaceX program. Its good business to have, and Dragon will be a far more affordable option for ISS development than Orion OR Shuttle.

Maybe not hinging on it, but they have up to $278 million if they meet all their COTS milestones. Best word so far is $100+ million from Musk and $20 million from private investors. Just from that it's clear NASA funding is a huge part of their path forward.

Then there is the potential for high margin contracts under CRS...up to $1.6 billion over I forget how many years. All of the non-COTS/CRS missions on their manifest (assuming full price) total about a quarter of that.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2578 on: 02/16/2009 11:38 am »
it's clear NASA funding is a huge part of their path forward.

Agreed.  Space-X won't be going out of its way to offend or upstage NASA for many years.  CRS will be the core of their business at first.

However, once they are on their feet and flying real revenue-earning payloads, expect them to slowly and deliberately start trying to develop non-NASA revenue streams.  Commercial satellite launch and recoverable microgravity science (DragonLab) are obvious options.  Others include space tourism (orbital, possibly in conjunction with Bigelow habitat modules) and even subcontract work for other space agencies (some countries, like the UK, build spacecraft but lack a LV of their own).
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Offline yg1968

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Re: Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon
« Reply #2579 on: 02/16/2009 02:01 pm »
Doesn't it make more sense to wait and see before funding COTS D? Until SpaceX proves that their payload vehicule works, I don't see the point in funding COTS-D.

I keep bringing up ESA but it seems that ESA is approaching the problem the right way. Once your payload vehicule has been proven to work (ATV for ESA), you go on to the next step: a payload vehicule capable of re-entry and then finally you go to a manned capsule. So far Space X has only succesfully lauched one Falcon 1 rocket. It seems risky to give them COTS-D funding at this point. Am I wrong in thinking this? 
« Last Edit: 02/16/2009 02:02 pm by yg1968 »

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