A used Dragon would be an ideal fit.
My guess is a CRS flight.
Quote from: yg1968 on 11/30/2014 02:56 pmMy guess is a CRS flight.Yep, I agree. The most statistically likely as well.
I doubt NASA would be willing to risk one of their cargoes on a reconditioned core. Orb-CRS-3 proves that even fresh cores are dangerous enough. I'm sure they would be willing to use recycled cores and recycled Dragons but only after their reliability was proven.
Quote from: king1999 on 11/30/2014 01:12 pmA used Dragon would be an ideal fit.For DragonLab, a used Dragon is a given, I think, and a used first stage. If NASA won't allow used Dragons on CRS flights they probably won't go for a used first stage either, although the they reused Shuttles for 30 years.To guess the first reuse customer, you have to guess correctly when a stage will be re certified for flight (after they tear apart the first couple of returned stages) and also which customer will be ready to launch at that time and willing to take the chance. If none comes forward, SpaceX might need to self fund a demo flight, but that would be a last choice I think.
I doubt NASA would be willing to risk one of their cargoes on a reconditioned core. Orb-CRS-3 proves that even fresh cores are dangerous enough. I'm sure they would be willing to use recycled cores and recycled Dragons but only after their reliability was proven.My guess is that the first reused core customer will be a small player, maybe even a newcomer who couldn't afford a launch without the cost savings Musk is promising from reuse.
Quote from: Ben the Space Brit on 11/30/2014 06:22 pmI doubt NASA would be willing to risk one of their cargoes on a reconditioned core. Orb-CRS-3 proves that even fresh cores are dangerous enough. I'm sure they would be willing to use recycled cores and recycled Dragons but only after their reliability was proven.My guess is that the first reused core customer will be a small player, maybe even a newcomer who couldn't afford a launch without the cost savings Musk is promising from reuse.What if SpaceX develops a test program that uses a dummy 2nd stage+payload, and puts the first stage through at least 10 launch cycles (launch to 100Km altitude, same vertical/horizontal speed as a CRS flight, then RTLS), and then asks NASA to be the 2nd launch of a newly recovered first stage ?
Here's something to speculate about: assuming some stages are recovered over the next year, which customer will be the first to trust their payload to a reused stage? Obvious candidates down the road include several Iridium flights. Is Orbcom too soon, or too critical? Any other guesses? Maybe Bigalow, since they have a vested interest in getting flights as cheap as possible. Also the many flights needed for the 700 internet sat constellation, but those are only speculative at this point. And, I might not count Dragonlab as a paid mission, if SpaceX self funds it.
I doubt NASA would be willing to risk one of their cargoes on a reconditioned core. Orb-CRS-3 proves that even fresh cores are dangerous enough.