Author Topic: Which payload will be the first paying flight on a reused stage?  (Read 25371 times)

Offline Jcc

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1196
  • Liked: 404
  • Likes Given: 203
Here's something to speculate about: assuming some stages are recovered over the next year, which customer will be the first to trust their payload to a reused stage?

Obvious candidates down the road include several Iridium flights. Is Orbcom too soon, or too critical? Any other guesses? Maybe Bigalow, since they have a vested interest in getting flights as cheap as possible. Also the many flights needed for the 700 internet  sat constellation, but those are only speculative at this point. And, I might not count Dragonlab as a paid mission, if SpaceX self funds it.


Offline king1999

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 440
  • F-Niner Fan
  • Atlanta, GA
  • Liked: 306
  • Likes Given: 1280
A used Dragon would be an ideal fit.

Offline AncientU

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6257
  • Liked: 4164
  • Likes Given: 6078
A lot depends on the price... SpaceX could offer reused vehicles for a substantial discount, say 30-50% reduction on contract price to existing customers and let willing customer(s) come forward.  I would expect the most likely would be SES, who has a long-term goal of lowering launch costs, or someone with many launches (and good insurance, i presume) like Iridium.

It would be difficult for SpaceX to wait for a new customer who surfaced only because of the discounted ride, since the development time for a new payload would probably be too long.
« Last Edit: 11/30/2014 01:16 pm by AncientU »
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Offline Jcc

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1196
  • Liked: 404
  • Likes Given: 203
A used Dragon would be an ideal fit.

For DragonLab, a used Dragon is a given, I think, and a used first stage. If NASA won't allow used Dragons on CRS flights they probably won't go for a used first stage either, although the they reused Shuttles for 30 years.

To guess the first reuse customer, you have to guess correctly when a stage will be re certified for flight (after they tear apart the first couple of returned stages) and also which customer will be ready to launch at that time and willing to take the chance. If none comes forward, SpaceX might need to self fund a demo flight, but that would be a last choice I think.

Offline Senex

  • Member
  • Posts: 57
  • Turtle Island
  • Liked: 91
  • Likes Given: 52
Jcc,  Your first post implies, correctly I would guess, that the payload is not "precious."  You offered examples where there are multiple copies of the same design available — easily replaced — a case where there are always more coming off the assembly line.

So I would suggest one possible criteria would be commoditization.  Any of the possible large swarms of satellites that have been talked about lately would do.  (The "700 internet satellites" that Musk is considering would do.) If you lose a launch you replace them.  This seems an appropriate fit with the parallel commoditization of launch services.  Obviously, propellant for a depot would be an even better example, but that is probably still too far over the horizon.

My second point would be to point out that reusability is dependent on the ability to accurately determine if the (previously used) vehicle is fit for flight.  While this is new for rockets, and may take some time to get right, we do that every day when we preflight an aircraft.  My bet is that Spacex is designing for inspection and serviceability.  As others have stated, I believe once this is an established fact, "pre-flown" vehicles will be MORE valued as having been "pre-tested," with the bugs worked out.  (Would you rather fly on the first test flight of a 787, or after it has a thousand hours in the logbook?)

To sum up, with that longer perspective, reused vehicles may start with non-unique payloads, but I expect that will be only for a brief transitional period.
« Last Edit: 11/30/2014 02:38 pm by Senex »

Offline yg1968

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17266
  • Liked: 7123
  • Likes Given: 3064
My guess is a CRS flight.

Offline Lars-J

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6809
  • California
  • Liked: 8485
  • Likes Given: 5384
My guess is a CRS flight.
Yep, I agree. The most statistically likely as well. :)
« Last Edit: 11/30/2014 04:12 pm by Lars-J »

Offline Jcc

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1196
  • Liked: 404
  • Likes Given: 203
My guess is a CRS flight.
Yep, I agree. The most statistically likely as well. :)

Good point. With CRS flights spaced every few months for the next couple of years, it is probably the best candidate, although maybe not until Antares is back in operation. The loss of Orb-3 might cause them to be extra cautious. They have also proven (the hard way) that a single engine out is not fatal to the mission, so it will be interesting to see whether NASA will go for it.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7206
  • A spaceflight fan
  • London, UK
  • Liked: 806
  • Likes Given: 900
I doubt NASA would be willing to risk one of their cargoes on a reconditioned core. Orb-CRS-3 proves that even fresh cores are dangerous enough. I'm sure they would be willing to use recycled cores and recycled Dragons but only after their reliability was proven.

My guess is that the first reused core customer will be a small player, maybe even a newcomer who couldn't afford a launch without the cost savings Musk is promising from reuse.
"Oops! I left the silly thing in reverse!" - Duck Dodgers

~*~*~*~

The Space Shuttle Program - 1981-2011

The time for words has passed; The time has come to put up or shut up!
DON'T PROPAGANDISE, FLY!!!

Online guckyfan

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7438
  • Germany
  • Liked: 2332
  • Likes Given: 2892
I doubt NASA would be willing to risk one of their cargoes on a reconditioned core. Orb-CRS-3 proves that even fresh cores are dangerous enough. I'm sure they would be willing to use recycled cores and recycled Dragons but only after their reliability was proven.

If I understand some remarks by Jim correctly, then they don't even have to ask NASA. That said, I don't believe at all that SpaceX would actually go ahead with a used stage unless NASA does give the nod.

Offline rcoppola

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2355
  • USA
  • Liked: 1967
  • Likes Given: 970
A used Dragon would be an ideal fit.

For DragonLab, a used Dragon is a given, I think, and a used first stage. If NASA won't allow used Dragons on CRS flights they probably won't go for a used first stage either, although the they reused Shuttles for 30 years.

To guess the first reuse customer, you have to guess correctly when a stage will be re certified for flight (after they tear apart the first couple of returned stages) and also which customer will be ready to launch at that time and willing to take the chance. If none comes forward, SpaceX might need to self fund a demo flight, but that would be a last choice I think.
Just one quick friendly note. It's not that NASA wouldn't or won't allow used Dragons, it's that SpaceX contractually offered new Dragon's for each CRS mission as estimating the re-certification of a used Dragon was deemed to complex at the time. (That's just a quick, overly simple explanation)
Sail the oceans of space and set foot upon new lands!
http://www.stormsurgemedia.com

Offline macpacheco

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 891
  • Vitoria-ES-Brazil
  • Liked: 368
  • Likes Given: 3041
I doubt NASA would be willing to risk one of their cargoes on a reconditioned core. Orb-CRS-3 proves that even fresh cores are dangerous enough. I'm sure they would be willing to use recycled cores and recycled Dragons but only after their reliability was proven.

My guess is that the first reused core customer will be a small player, maybe even a newcomer who couldn't afford a launch without the cost savings Musk is promising from reuse.
What if SpaceX develops a test program that uses a dummy 2nd stage+payload, and puts the first stage through at least 10 launch cycles (launch to 100Km altitude, same vertical/horizontal speed as a CRS flight, then RTLS), and then asks NASA to be the 2nd launch of a newly recovered first stage ?

Another idea, offer NASA another flight like they did on the first Dragon to ISS mission (pre CRS), say give them 50% off for carrying just low value upmass/downmass. Might as well also do the first Dragon recycle ?
« Last Edit: 11/30/2014 08:56 pm by macpacheco »
Looking for companies doing great things for much more than money

Offline TrevorMonty

I would hope NASA would support their RLV program by being the first customer. NASA was created to develop leading edge technology.

 Astrobotic have booked a Dec flight with SpaceX . I would be surprise if they could afford to say no to a used LV at a discount price.

Offline rcoppola

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2355
  • USA
  • Liked: 1967
  • Likes Given: 970
I doubt NASA would be willing to risk one of their cargoes on a reconditioned core. Orb-CRS-3 proves that even fresh cores are dangerous enough. I'm sure they would be willing to use recycled cores and recycled Dragons but only after their reliability was proven.

My guess is that the first reused core customer will be a small player, maybe even a newcomer who couldn't afford a launch without the cost savings Musk is promising from reuse.
What if SpaceX develops a test program that uses a dummy 2nd stage+payload, and puts the first stage through at least 10 launch cycles (launch to 100Km altitude, same vertical/horizontal speed as a CRS flight, then RTLS), and then asks NASA to be the 2nd launch of a newly recovered first stage ?
I understand your point but that's what the New Mexico test program is for, minus the second stage and/or exact CRS flight profile.
Sail the oceans of space and set foot upon new lands!
http://www.stormsurgemedia.com

Offline Aerospace Dilettante

  • Member
  • Posts: 57
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 31
I hope that they can find a paying customer for the first reused S1, but I'm betting that they wind up using a boilerplate.

Offline rcoppola

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2355
  • USA
  • Liked: 1967
  • Likes Given: 970
It's really dependent on what they find when they inspect an actual returned core. Which may be relatively soon.

But a few notes of caution:

-Not every return profile will be the same. Different return profiles will apply different stresses.
-Future earlier leg-deployment as well as Hypersonic Grid Fins will also alter the cores stress profile.

What I mean to suggest is that these are early days and they need to continue to build their database. So even when they return a core from one flight and inspect it, they'll need to compare those findings with other return profiles to really build up their return library of understandings. I't's similar to that of any flight test program. You have your models, you have your testing program (Both New Mexico & Operational Missions) and you expand the envelope to build your results database until you are comfortable that you have sufficiently encountered all known parameters.

I couldn't guess about the first payload but I wouldn't be surprised if the USAF attempts to facilitate the first official re-use mission. (Not with anything critical and expensive but they do sponsor a lot of experimental work and surely they see the potential for this) So...the first customer of a previously-flown core will be...The USAF.
« Last Edit: 11/30/2014 07:33 pm by rcoppola »
Sail the oceans of space and set foot upon new lands!
http://www.stormsurgemedia.com

Offline Brovane

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1285
  • United States
  • Liked: 828
  • Likes Given: 1797
Here's something to speculate about: assuming some stages are recovered over the next year, which customer will be the first to trust their payload to a reused stage?

Obvious candidates down the road include several Iridium flights. Is Orbcom too soon, or too critical? Any other guesses? Maybe Bigalow, since they have a vested interest in getting flights as cheap as possible. Also the many flights needed for the 700 internet  sat constellation, but those are only speculative at this point. And, I might not count Dragonlab as a paid mission, if SpaceX self funds it.

Wouldn't that be dependent on how much of a testing program SpaceX does with the used first stage(s)?  If SpaceX does several test launches with used 1st stages before soliciting any paying customers that would change the dynamic of who would line up to the be the first customer. 
"Look at that! If anybody ever said, "you'll be sitting in a spacecraft naked with a 134-pound backpack on your knees charging it", I'd have said "Aw, get serious". - John Young - Apollo-16

Offline Lars-J

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6809
  • California
  • Liked: 8485
  • Likes Given: 5384
I doubt NASA would be willing to risk one of their cargoes on a reconditioned core. Orb-CRS-3 proves that even fresh cores are dangerous enough. I'm sure they would be willing to use recycled cores and recycled Dragons but only after their reliability was proven.

My guess is that the first reused core customer will be a small player, maybe even a newcomer who couldn't afford a launch without the cost savings Musk is promising from reuse.

I guess you never noticed that the first core to fly with legs (a risk) was on a CRS flight? NASA simply doesn't have a choice, even if they did object.

Offline Mike_1179

  • Member
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 670
  • New Jersey
  • Liked: 383
  • Likes Given: 87
And the CRS payloads are inherently low-risk. Yes, the ISS is critical, but the stuff in the CRS flights are not (they are class D - http://nodis3.gsfc.nasa.gov/npg_img/N_PR_8705_0004_/N_PR_8705_0004_.pdf)

Offline jaufgang

  • Member
  • Posts: 63
  • Liked: 79
  • Likes Given: 22
I doubt NASA would be willing to risk one of their cargoes on a reconditioned core. Orb-CRS-3 proves that even fresh cores are dangerous enough.

I'm not sure fresh  is the adjective I'd choose to describe a core built on engines that were originally manufactured while Elon Musk was still in diapers. 
« Last Edit: 12/01/2014 12:35 pm by jaufgang »

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1