Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 - Canceled (ABS-8) - DISCUSSION  (Read 26314 times)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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SpaceX Falcon 9 - Canceled (ABS-8) - DISCUSSION
« on: 06/01/2015 04:02 pm »
[Oct 2016] Note: Construction of this satellite has been postponed.  There is no current NET date.



ABS very happy with status of ABS-2a, ordering another electric sat from Boeing.

http://spacenews.com/abs-teaming-with-boeing-spacex-for-another-electric-satellite/
« Last Edit: 12/07/2018 12:21 pm by gongora »

Offline Owlon

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Quote
He said ABS-8 will cost “an order of magnitude less” than current-generation geostationary satellites, a feature Choi said is necessary if the satellite industry is to survive the onslaught of terrestrial broadband competition.

Very interesting. That brings the cost of the satellite from the hundreds-of-millions range down to the tens-of-millions, where even the relatively cheap Falcon 9 exceeds the cost of the satellite. Kind of refutes the argument that GEO satellites are inherently expensive and lower launch costs won't increase demand.

EDIT: Never mind--the reduction is in cost per megabit, not total cost
« Last Edit: 06/01/2015 06:05 pm by Owlon »

Offline RedLineTrain

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He is discussing cost on a per megabit basis.

Offline Owlon

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He is discussing cost on a per megabit basis.

Ah, yes, I missed that bit in the previous paragraph. Still, I imagine there must be some reduction in the base cost of the satellite to achieve a tenfold decrease in the data throughput cost.

Offline Jim

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Ah, yes, I missed that bit in the previous paragraph. Still, I imagine there must be some reduction in the base cost of the satellite to achieve a tenfold decrease in the data throughput cost.

It is already a smaller spacecraft than others.  Mass ~cost.

Offline JasonAW3

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Ah, yes, I missed that bit in the previous paragraph. Still, I imagine there must be some reduction in the base cost of the satellite to achieve a tenfold decrease in the data throughput cost.

It is already a smaller spacecraft than others.  Mass ~cost.

Moore's Law notwithstanding, I wouldn't be suprised to see Cube sats doing the same job at some of the more huge Telecom and Weather sats in the not too distant future.  At an altitude of 600Km, most of teh Cube sats would be able to give continious, highly detailed weather info from multiple angles and Telecom sats could network on orbit, providing incredible levels of broadband capibilities.
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Offline abaddon

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I couldn't find a direct reference, but this SpaceNews article: http://spacenews.com/39801all-electric-satellites-prove-a-tough-sell-for-operators-anxious-for/ indicates that ABS-3A cost around $168 million including the half-share of the under $60 million launch price cited.  This does not appear to include insurance.  That would put the ABS-8 cost to orbit (assuming it is a similar configuration, which is not a given, and assuming it is the sole passenger on the ride) at around $200 million.

Offline Jim

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Moore's Law notwithstanding, I wouldn't be suprised to see Cube sats doing the same job at some of the more huge Telecom and Weather sats in the not too distant future.  At an altitude of 600Km, most of teh Cube sats would be able to give continious, highly detailed weather info from multiple angles and Telecom sats could network on orbit, providing incredible levels of broadband capibilities.

not true.  There are physical limitations to sensors and transmitters.  It would take too many cube sats to do telecom

Offline kevin-rf

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I think a better counter point would be, in the entire history of com. satellites this is the first time GSO satellites have shrunk in size. (Though only the propulsion has shrunk, not the payload). They keep getting bigger, more bandwidth, more power, bigger antennas)
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Offline TrevorMonty

By end 2017 they should have choice of F9R at considerably lower launch price <$50m or second payload to half price $35m.

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #10 on: 06/01/2015 08:16 pm »
By end 2017 they should have choice of F9R at considerably lower launch price <$50m or second payload to half price $35m.
I believe there have been tweets out of SpaceX for negotiations for possible customers for a F9R at the price of ~$40M. Just how real this price is is a question but it jives with conservative eco models for a reused 1st stage (10 times reuse). If ABS goes this raoute as a sole rider they will incurr only a $10M increase in price over their earlier ride cost.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #11 on: 06/02/2015 12:59 am »
By end 2017 they should have choice of F9R at considerably lower launch price <$50m or second payload to half price $35m.
I believe there have been tweets out of SpaceX for negotiations for possible customers for a F9R at the price of ~$40M. Just how real this price is is a question but it jives with conservative eco models for a reused 1st stage (10 times reuse). If ABS goes this raoute as a sole rider they will incurr only a $10M increase in price over their earlier ride cost.

If using a F9R with one 702SP satcom. Would the F9R be able to do GSO insertion directly?

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #12 on: 06/02/2015 02:13 am »
I don't think the current us has the ability to do the long multi hour coast needed.
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Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #13 on: 06/02/2015 02:38 am »
I believe there have been tweets out of SpaceX for negotiations for possible customers for a F9R at the price of ~$40M. Just how real this price is is a question but it jives with conservative eco models for a reused 1st stage (10 times reuse). If ABS goes this raoute as a sole rider they will incurr only a $10M increase in price over their earlier ride cost.

If using a F9R with one 702SP satcom. Would the F9R be able to do GSO insertion directly?
I don't think the current us has the ability to do the long multi hour coast needed.

Nothing that some solar panels and batteries couldm't fixed, if the upper stage have the Delta-Vee available.

Just how much extra service life does a 702SP satcom get with a direct GSO insertion?

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #14 on: 06/02/2015 02:51 am »
I believe there have been tweets out of SpaceX for negotiations for possible customers for a F9R at the price of ~$40M. Just how real this price is is a question but it jives with conservative eco models for a reused 1st stage (10 times reuse). If ABS goes this raoute as a sole rider they will incurr only a $10M increase in price over their earlier ride cost.

If using a F9R with one 702SP satcom. Would the F9R be able to do GSO insertion directly?
I don't think the current us has the ability to do the long multi hour coast needed.

Nothing that some solar panels and batteries couldm't fixed, if the upper stage have the Delta-Vee available.

Just how much extra service life does a 702SP satcom get with a direct GSO insertion?
Batteries alone are sufficient. Maybe a little extra thruster gas.
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Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #15 on: 06/02/2015 03:05 am »
If using a F9R with one 702SP satcom. Would the F9R be able to do GSO insertion directly?
They wouldn't have to do the whole GSO insertion to be of value.
ABS is claiming happily that they are getting to orbit a month earlier than scheduled with more solar power.
Raising the orbit goes slowly at first, then faster. 
Any extra impulse could dramatically shorten the time to station.
Plus it would shorten the time spent transiting the radiation belts, which should result in even less damage.
Batteries would be the easy part.  LOX boil-off over six or so hours in exoatmospheric sunlight might be real difficult.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline S.Paulissen

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #16 on: 06/02/2015 04:35 am »
I believe there have been tweets out of SpaceX for negotiations for possible customers for a F9R at the price of ~$40M. Just how real this price is is a question but it jives with conservative eco models for a reused 1st stage (10 times reuse). If ABS goes this raoute as a sole rider they will incurr only a $10M increase in price over their earlier ride cost.

If using a F9R with one 702SP satcom. Would the F9R be able to do GSO insertion directly?
I don't think the current us has the ability to do the long multi hour coast needed.

Nothing that some solar panels and batteries couldm't fixed, if the upper stage have the Delta-Vee available.

Just how much extra service life does a 702SP satcom get with a direct GSO insertion?
Batteries alone are sufficient. Maybe a little extra thruster gas.

While problem neither are the hardest too solve. Lox boil off will be the biggest.
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Offline guckyfan

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #17 on: 06/02/2015 06:26 am »
While problem neither are the hardest too solve. Lox boil off will be the biggest.

I would expect that keeping the RP-1 liquid might be a bigger problem. But I may be wrong.

BTW there was an exchange at the latest congressional hearing. Tory Bruno said, SpaceX cannot do direct GSO insertion and Gwynne Shotwell answered, we can.

Offline su27k

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #18 on: 06/02/2015 10:29 am »
I don't think the current us has the ability to do the long multi hour coast needed.

I believe they will need this ability in order to complete the STP-2 mission next year.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #19 on: 06/02/2015 11:59 am »
RP-1 is fine. LOx boiloff is much less of a problem than liquid hydrogen boiloff.
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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #20 on: 06/02/2015 12:18 pm »
I don't think the current us has the ability to do the long multi hour coast needed.
And that assumption comes based on what?

Some indicators to the contrary: In the past SpaceX has released Earth images, taken by US cameras, multiple hours into the mission. This indicates that the US, multiple hours into the mission, was still electrically alive, holding attitude, holding pressure, sending telemetry. Etc, etc, etc.
Also, SpaceX is aware of the flight profile needed for their contracted missions. It would be rather inappropriate to assume that SpaceX had not taken this into account whilst developing/improving the current Falcon 9 upper stage.

Offline nadreck

I certainly think the Falcon upper stage will be capable of extended operations and 3rd and 4th burns in the next few years. I also believe that somewhere between now and BFR there will be work on a returnable upper stage. However, extended ops are going to be much sooner (speaking ex-cathedra from my belly button) and the next step after extended ops is probably depot. That is attaching an upper stage to something that besides propellant provides regenerative cooling for Lox (circulation and minimal heating for RP-1 too).

Bringing this back to the issue at hand, I am not 100% sure that ABS-8 would benefit (economically) as much from full GSO insertion as it would from splitting the ride and saving $30 to $35M. And of course, I don't think that it would quite get full GSO, but maybe supersynch and the plane change?
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline dante2308

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #22 on: 06/02/2015 07:23 pm »
I certainly think the Falcon upper stage will be capable of extended operations and 3rd and 4th burns in the next few years. I also believe that somewhere between now and BFR there will be work on a returnable upper stage. However, extended ops are going to be much sooner (speaking ex-cathedra from my belly button) and the next step after extended ops is probably depot. That is attaching an upper stage to something that besides propellant provides regenerative cooling for Lox (circulation and minimal heating for RP-1 too).

Bringing this back to the issue at hand, I am not 100% sure that ABS-8 would benefit (economically) as much from full GSO insertion as it would from splitting the ride and saving $30 to $35M. And of course, I don't think that it would quite get full GSO, but maybe supersynch and the plane change?

STP-2 requires multiple burns over several hours. The technological hurdles need to be overcome within 12 months or so unless that flight gets significantly delayed, though the second stage of the FH may be significantly different than the second stage of the F9R. Assuming it is not, it then probably comes down to delta-v though I should note that a reused stage has the same capacity as an expendable stage and it is not completely clear whether SX is offering discounts for used stages or stages they intend to reuse or both.

Offline baldusi

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #23 on: 06/02/2015 08:11 pm »
They could do a 45,000km x 10deg SGTO, that leaves just 1,500m/s of delta-v deficit. Or they could drop at 1,800m/s and do the first RTLS even with a v1.1.

Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #24 on: 06/02/2015 08:56 pm »
Don't forget that with such a light payload (assuming single passenger), they may run into acceleration limits and therefore not be able to do everything that they technically have the delta-v for.  Or they may need to ballast significantly in order to avoid such with the same result.  etc.
« Last Edit: 06/02/2015 08:56 pm by deruch »
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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #25 on: 07/04/2016 09:44 pm »
It looks like no one ever posted an update as this project ran into troubles last year.  The initial contract was cancelled and it's not clear that it's ever been restarted yet.  This satellite will definitely be delayed quite a bit if it ever actually gets built.

[Reuters Aug 4 2015]  Boeing loses large satellite deal due to trade credit woes
Quote
Boeing Co (BA.N) is scrambling to find alternate financing for a satellite contract worth "several hundred million dollars" that was scuttled by privately held commercial satellite provider ABS due to uncertainty about the future of the U.S. Export-Import Bank, three sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.

ABS, based in Bermuda and Hong Kong, terminated its order for the satellite in mid-July, citing the expiration of the trade bank's charter on June 30, according to the sources...

[Via Satellite Jul 1 2016]  Satellite Orders Still Caught in Battle Over Ex-Im Bank
Quote
More than 30 transactions by the Export Import Bank of America, commonly referred to as Ex-Im Bank, remain stalled out — a year since Congress voted to reauthorize the institution. Included in these 30 transactions, each valued in excess of $10 million, are new satellite orders caught in limbo.

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #26 on: 07/04/2016 10:04 pm »
It looks like no one ever posted an update as this project ran into troubles last year.  The initial contract was cancelled and it's not clear that it's ever been restarted yet.  This satellite will definitely be delayed quite a bit if it ever actually gets built.

[Reuters Aug 4 2015]  Boeing loses large satellite deal due to trade credit woes
Quote
Boeing Co (BA.N) is scrambling to find alternate financing for a satellite contract worth "several hundred million dollars" that was scuttled by privately held commercial satellite provider ABS due to uncertainty about the future of the U.S. Export-Import Bank, three sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.

ABS, based in Bermuda and Hong Kong, terminated its order for the satellite in mid-July, citing the expiration of the trade bank's charter on June 30, according to the sources...

[Via Satellite Jul 1 2016]  Satellite Orders Still Caught in Battle Over Ex-Im Bank
Quote
More than 30 transactions by the Export Import Bank of America, commonly referred to as Ex-Im Bank, remain stalled out — a year since Congress voted to reauthorize the institution. Included in these 30 transactions, each valued in excess of $10 million, are new satellite orders caught in limbo.



What would happen in this situation...does that free up a F9 for some other customer....?.?...does everyone move up in the queue ?.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #27 on: 07/04/2016 10:13 pm »
What would happen in this situation...does that free up a F9 for some other customer....?.?...does everyone move up in the queue ?.

At this point it makes very little difference to the queue, that launch vehicle wouldn't have been built until over a year from now.  SpaceX has over 30 launches still scheduled between now and the end of 2017.  If the satellite just gets delayed a year or two that might even be a good thing for SpaceX.  If they don't start launching at a steady rate of twice a month soon they're gonna be in big trouble next year.

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #28 on: 07/04/2016 10:17 pm »
Yeah, Elon's already dealing with this issue over at Tesla...
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #29 on: 07/04/2016 11:13 pm »
Yeah, Elon's already dealing with this issue over at Tesla...
That's no different than it has been for both companies since each started. If anything, it was worse in the past.
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Offline MP99

RP-1 is fine. LOx boiloff is much less of a problem than liquid hydrogen boiloff.
One of the issues for a cryocooler for the LOx is a radiator for the heat rejection. Could this dump the heat into the RP1 to stop it from freezing?

ISTM this "just" needs to create a temperature gradient across the common bulkhead, making sure the RP1 side is warm enough not to cause freezing, and the LOX side cold enough to condense excess boiloff.

In ground operations, this might even be used to extend launch windows by maintaining sub-cooling of the LOX.

This would not be a solution for days of operation. Ultimately it relies on the heat capacity of the RP1, unless the system reaches thermal equilibrium before the RP1 gets too warm for M1Dvac operation.

Cheers, Martin

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #31 on: 07/11/2016 08:48 am »
RP-1 is fine. LOx boiloff is much less of a problem than liquid hydrogen boiloff.
One of the issues for a cryocooler for the LOx is a radiator for the heat rejection. Could this dump the heat into the RP1 to stop it from freezing?

ISTM this "just" needs to create a temperature gradient across the common bulkhead, making sure the RP1 side is warm enough not to cause freezing, and the LOX side cold enough to condense excess boiloff.

In ground operations, this might even be used to extend launch windows by maintaining sub-cooling of the LOX.

This would not be a solution for days of operation. Ultimately it relies on the heat capacity of the RP1, unless the system reaches thermal equilibrium before the RP1 gets too warm for M1Dvac operation.

Cheers, Martin

Peltier heat pump might work.

Offline hrissan

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #32 on: 07/11/2016 10:21 am »
RP-1 is fine. LOx boiloff is much less of a problem than liquid hydrogen boiloff.
One of the issues for a cryocooler for the LOx is a radiator for the heat rejection. Could this dump the heat into the RP1 to stop it from freezing?

ISTM this "just" needs to create a temperature gradient across the common bulkhead, making sure the RP1 side is warm enough not to cause freezing, and the LOX side cold enough to condense excess boiloff.

In ground operations, this might even be used to extend launch windows by maintaining sub-cooling of the LOX.

This would not be a solution for days of operation. Ultimately it relies on the heat capacity of the RP1, unless the system reaches thermal equilibrium before the RP1 gets too warm for M1Dvac operation.

Cheers, Martin

Peltier heat pump might work.
For LOX@80K and RP@320K the Carnot efficiency is ~25%, so for each KW removed from LOX you heat RP with at least 5 KW with ideal heat pump.

Now, the Peltier elements are ~15% of theoretical efficiency :), and I believe such a large temperature gradient would require several peltier stages, for example 3 stages, in which case cooling efficiency would be ~ 0.08%.

So IMHO more conventional mechanic heat pump would be required... Small 2 stage nitrogen liquifier might have ~3-6% thermal efficiency working as a cooler in similar temperature gradient.

So we are happy to remove just 120-240 Watts of heat for LOX tank using Dragon-like 4 KW solar panels as a power source... Seems cooling is hard...

Edit: fixed numbers.
« Last Edit: 07/11/2016 10:43 am by hrissan »

Offline MP99

Edit: thanks for numbers re cooling.

While problem neither are the hardest too solve. Lox boil off will be the biggest.

I would expect that keeping the RP-1 liquid might be a bigger problem. But I may be wrong.

BTW there was an exchange at the latest congressional hearing. Tory Bruno said, SpaceX cannot do direct GSO insertion and Gwynne Shotwell answered, we can.

RP-1 is fine. LOx boiloff is much less of a problem than liquid hydrogen boiloff.

The lowest mass solution may well be to allow some LOX to boil off.

If there is an issue with RP1 freezing, then lightest solution may be to burn a small amount of RP1 in GOX boiloff to keep the fuel side of the intertank above freezing point, and just eat another further small increase in LOX boiloff.

Cheers, Martin
« Last Edit: 07/11/2016 02:39 pm by MP99 »

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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #35 on: 07/11/2016 05:11 pm »
By the way, LOx is fairly easily storable in space if you keep it shielded from the sun (for instance, point the stage in the direction of sunlight.
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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 - ABS-8 late 2017 / early 2018 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #36 on: 10/13/2016 04:12 pm »
This won't be launching anytime soon...

SpaceNews: Who’s afraid of ViaSat-3? Some Asian operators say it won’t work there
Quote
ABS Chief Executive Tom Choi said his company “dodged a bullet” in not being able to secure U.S. Export-Import Bank loans the Boeing-built ABS-8 satellite, which was to have a high-throughput-satellite (HTS) payload.

“Mark Dankberg and ViaSat have set the bar really high” with ViaSat-3, Choi said here Oct. 4 during the APSCC 2016 conference, referring to ViaSat’s chief executive. As a result of ViaSat’s announcement, Choi said, ABS is redesigning ABS-8, with Boeing, and still hopes to secure Ex-Im Bank backing.

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