Poll

 How much impact does Orion have for enabling or allowing human space settlement?

We are far too early on the path, so any money spent on HSF enables space settlement
14 (14.6%)
Orion will have a substantial impact for enabling human space settlement
1 (1%)
Orion will have a moderate impact for enabling human space settlement
8 (8.3%)
Orion will have a minimal impact for enabling human space settlement
70 (72.9%)
We shouldn't be engaging in space settlement - HSF is for some other purpose
3 (3.1%)

Total Members Voted: 96


Author Topic: Orion and Space Settlement  (Read 18837 times)

Offline Political Hack Wannabe

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Orion and Space Settlement
« on: 09/12/2014 02:20 pm »
Hey everyone -

So, as I was looking at one of the other polls, I had the thought that if our purpose for HSF was space settlement, it might be worth while to actually look at the various NASA programs, and see if they are actually enabling or allowing space settlement.

As promised this is the 2nd poll, focused on Orion.  You can see (and take part in) the first poll, which asks about ISS and space settlement by clicking this link.  The remaining 2 for sure are going to be SLS and Commercial Crew (I am considering ARM, but thats very much at the conceptional stage).  BTW, if you have another suggestion for other NASA programs, I would love to hear it.

FYI - I'll be staggering them over the next few days/weeks in the appropriate sections.  If you think I should include another program, feel free to mention it.  And obviously, feel free to offer up how and why you voted as you did in the comments.

Edit - because of some of the comments in this thread, I created another poll about space settlement in general, to address some of the comments raised in this thread
« Last Edit: 09/13/2014 09:40 pm by Political Hack Wannabe »
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Offline Burninate

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #1 on: 09/12/2014 02:57 pm »
Missing:
Orion will have a severe negative impact on the progress of space settlement
Orion will have a moderate negative impact on the progress of space settlement
Orion will have a minimal negative impact on the progress of space settlement

Though this does get into highest-probability-implied-contrafactuals, which are subjective predictions.
« Last Edit: 09/12/2014 02:58 pm by Burninate »

Offline jongoff

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #2 on: 09/12/2014 03:35 pm »
Regardless of whether it is a good tool for "exploration" (I'm skeptical), I fail to see much of a real connection between Orion and Space Settlement. Space Settlement is going to require systems that are much, much cheaper per person delivered to a planet than Orion. Personally I think it's a dead end that's going to start looking anachronistic pretty soon after CC vehicles start flying--not because LM is incompetent (it isn't) but because they were forced to build a BEO capsule as their first big manned space project with their current team, whereas SpaceX is now really on their third version of capsule. Skipping steps may sound like a quicker way to get to a capability, but in many cases there's a lot of learning and mistakes to be avoided by a more iterative development process.

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Offline bad_astra

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #3 on: 09/12/2014 03:36 pm »
I put minimum. I am not a pessimist, but Orion development has taken far too long (has any group ever worked this long to develop a single piece of space hardware?) and might well be overshadowed by subsequent developments.

It will probably do its job, whatever that is, but it will probably not be significant. One two two launches per year is not significant for space settlement. You couldn't settle a restroom let alone space, with it.
« Last Edit: 09/12/2014 03:37 pm by bad_astra »
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Offline veblen

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #4 on: 09/12/2014 04:00 pm »
NASA manages a continuously crewed space station in low earth orbit. Beyond that I know of no other connection between NASA and space "settlement". Settlement (colonizing) of Mars (or building a transportation system to Mars for settlers) is Elon Musk's goal.

Offline Political Hack Wannabe

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #5 on: 09/12/2014 06:07 pm »
NASA manages a continuously crewed space station in low earth orbit. Beyond that I know of no other connection between NASA and space "settlement". Settlement (colonizing) of Mars (or building a transportation system to Mars for settlers) is Elon Musk's goal.

2 presidential speeches, a national commission, and a public law suggests that settlement is in fact part of the goal. 

But YMMV
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Offline SpacexULA

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #6 on: 09/12/2014 06:17 pm »
Orion seems like the right vehicle for the wrong decade.

Orion would have been a revolutionary vehicle if it had been green lighted after the Columbia, and base lined to fly on a Direct type offshoot of the Shuttle stack in parallel with the shuttle till the completion of the ISS.  That Orion would have been a vehicle for the history books of our children.

Unfortunately I think the Orion Capsule and the SLS will join the X-38, Ares 1-X, and DC-X as projects that us aerospace enthusiasts will remember, but main line history books and the general public 20 years from now will not.

I voted no, I think Orion will be another unfortunate project for NASA.
« Last Edit: 09/12/2014 06:18 pm by SpacexULA »
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Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #7 on: 09/12/2014 08:34 pm »
NASA manages a continuously crewed space station in low earth orbit. Beyond that I know of no other connection between NASA and space "settlement". Settlement (colonizing) of Mars (or building a transportation system to Mars for settlers) is Elon Musk's goal.

2 presidential speeches, a national commission, and a public law suggests that settlement is in fact part of the goal. 

But YMMV

They are warning that Orion and SLS may be investments in managerial ego.  Congress being the top management of NASA.
http://boom-qa.com/managerial-ego

Offline jongoff

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #8 on: 09/12/2014 10:36 pm »
NASA manages a continuously crewed space station in low earth orbit. Beyond that I know of no other connection between NASA and space "settlement". Settlement (colonizing) of Mars (or building a transportation system to Mars for settlers) is Elon Musk's goal.

2 presidential speeches, a national commission, and a public law suggests that settlement is in fact part of the goal. 

But YMMV

While those speeches, the A-com and the public law say the right thing, I don't see a lot of evidence of buy-in from the rest of the government. Even the Executive Branch's commitment to settlement seems... questionable at best.

~Jon

Offline ThereIWas3

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #9 on: 09/12/2014 10:40 pm »

2 presidential speeches, a national commission, and a public law suggests that settlement is in fact part of the goal. 

But YMMV

No, I think exploration is the goal.  Settlement is not NASA's business.  In fact, before the name change from NACA to NASA, flight of any kind (air or space) was not their job.  They just did research in technologies.  And I think that will be their role in the future regarding HSF, largely due to congressional meddling.  "NASA Spaceflight" may become an oxymoron.

Offline Political Hack Wannabe

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #10 on: 09/13/2014 06:19 am »
So a few comments

1)  I wasn't saying it was NASA's job to settle space.  I was very clear with my question - I asked how much impact does Orion have for enabling or allowing human settlement.  The reason for that langauge is that enabling and allowing are not the same thing as actually causing.  For example - the US west could not have been populated without certain things happening, such as the development of transcontinental railroads, or things like the steel plow.  But they didn't actual cause the actual westward expansion, in and of themselves.  By the same token, since it does actually operating in space, it is quite possible that Orion will have some sort of impact on space settlement.  That doesn't mean that its NASA's job to settle space, just that developments from the Orion spacecraft will enable or allow space settlement (those statements are not equal)

2)  Regarding commitment from NASA/Executive Branch/US government writ large - again, it doesn't actually matter for purposes of the question.  Somebody may not buy into a core belief when starting a project, but then find out that the project does align and validate the core belief (there are many scientific theories that are like this)

3)  I would actually be interested in a longer conversation what exploration is (because I tend to think that people use it, but its a meaningless word when it comes to space), but then we would be getting off topic, and when this topic has been raised in the past, it really hasn't attracted attention on the NSF forms (at least, when I've raised it - again YMMV_
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Offline jtrame

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #11 on: 09/13/2014 11:56 am »
We are way too early on the path, but Orion will contribute in the same way the Apollo expeditions will contribute to the eventual settlement of the Moon. We know what the conditions are on the ground, we can design based on answers provided by Apollo.  We can design habitats, we know that vehicles can work in the environment.   We know a lot about the available resources.
 
Exploration continues in the 21st century, settlement begins in the 22nd century.  Too many questions need answers, like radiation shielding, ISRU techniques, etc.  Heck, rotational AG has not even been studied yet. 

It's more likely a long path that eventually produces settlements on the Moon, or on Mars, Ceres, or space outposts.  Even though we'd like to see it happen in our lifetime, our job is to lay the foundation.  Orion, if augmented with suitable habitats and landers, is a small step in that direction.  It can contribute some of the answers.
 


Offline Cherokee43v6

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #12 on: 09/13/2014 01:30 pm »
I put minimal.

While governments in the past have often driven exploration, settlement is a whole other matter.  Settlement is generally an economic/socially driven phenomena.  For settlement to occur, there must be either an economically driven motive, such as the various 'gold rushes' that drew people seeking to make their fortune to places like Central America (conquistadors), California, the Yukon, etc; or there must be a societal driver, such as the Protestant migration to the New England colonies in the 1600/1700's; or some combination thereof.

Orion and SLS fit neither of these descriptions (in fact, not even the SpaceX DragonV2 does either).  At best, the Orion will be the equivalent of the HMS Beagle or the HMS Endeavour.  Government funded explorations that went interesting places and learned interesting things, but really only served to excite those who were already prone to emigrate.

Remember also that governments have absolutely no interest in sending constituents/subjects/taxpayers somewhere outside of their ability to enforce the payments of appropriate duties.  With the ability to claim territory in space restricted by treaty or by the current perception of such, even such things as the 'royal charters' that backed the establishment of the American Colonies would be extremely difficult to put into place.  At least until such time as a government establishes both the ability to enforce its will at such a remote location and the will to do so.  Again, this is not something that Orion would be capable of.

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Offline Nibb31

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #13 on: 09/13/2014 02:19 pm »
"Settlement" as in "Colonization" is so far in the realm of science-fiction that it has absolutely no bearing on today's reality. It is not happening in the foreseeable future, and I doubt that Orion will still be flying when it does. Space is not the American Wild West, so any culture-centric analogies based on 19th Century history do not apply.

Offline Lar

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #14 on: 09/13/2014 02:37 pm »
"Settlement" as in "Colonization" is so far in the realm of science-fiction that it has absolutely no bearing on today's reality. It is not happening in the foreseeable future, and I doubt that Orion will still be flying when it does. Space is not the American Wild West, so any culture-centric analogies based on 19th Century history do not apply.

That is a fairly commonly held perception. But not everyone agrees with you. Some people with billions to allocate seem to be working on things directly in contravention of that view, and that are a lot closer in than the "forseeable future".

Time will tell. 

That said, this poll is flawed, as it doesn't have any negative options. I think Orion is more likely to be a hindrance than any sort of aid.
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Offline Robert Thompson

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #15 on: 09/13/2014 09:17 pm »
Mass recovered : Mass launched ~ 1% at most.


Offline redliox

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #16 on: 09/19/2014 10:30 am »
Looking at Orion itself and it's abilities...I voted minimal for good reason.  Sure, it will do as good a job as the old Apollo Command Module, better even with technology's help.  However all it can do is dock and orbit...not much else.

If you look at every scheme beyond the initial 3 flights on SLS...even ARM...supplemental vehicles are called upon.  Deep space stations, habitat modules, landers for either Mars or Luna, and a little EVA pod are all in the various schemes; each is a handy idea...but once again it becomes a project with no set date and no destination except limbo.  With luck, at least a lander will be developed next, but since we're talking about Orion itself...

It's simply a shuttlecraft, no more or less.  We'll always have need of such a vehicle, but I would wager in time (say 30 years time if not better) commercial vehicles will reach throughout cislunar space and take over the role as they've begun in LEO.  So Orion serves a purpose, for the time being, and may serve as a reference model for crew transfer vehicles (that would be a better title than an awkward 'Multipurpose-Crew-Vehicle').

In short: cute, but won't be impressed until I see something that sprouts legs.
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Offline Patchouli

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #17 on: 09/20/2014 02:54 am »
I went with any money spent on HSF will help space settlement which is true.

Just some things will help more then others.

If Orion and SLS fly as intended they will build experience in the operation of HLVs and deep space flight.
STS though considered a failure by some did build a lot of useful experience in building structures in space and operating a RLV.

The commercial crew and cargo programs will likely have a larger impact then Orion and SLS.
« Last Edit: 09/21/2014 07:14 am by Patchouli »

Offline rusty

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #18 on: 09/20/2014 10:00 am »
I don't mean to nitpick semantics, but your definition of "space settlement" is important to determining Orion's impact.

1- "Settlement" as in "Colonization" - in the words of Nibb. No impact as colonization, or permanent habitation, won't occur within the Asteroid Belt and probably not in my lifetime.

2- Settlement as in a temporarily manned or rotated staffing surface structure; Orion is imperative as a means to transit from Earth to Lunar or Mars Orbit. No offering or proposal from Russia, Boeing, China or SpaceX can complete this task. If we are to establish Lunar or Martian outposts/stations of scientific discovery and development, Orion is our one and only ride. No Orion, no future beyond LEO.

3- Settlement as in a temporarily manned or rotated staffing in LEO, as in the ISS which is technically a "settlement in space"; Orion isn't really needed, nor is any LV development of the last half-century. Soyuz is as good as Dragon, so no need for Orion.

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #19 on: 09/20/2014 10:22 am »
I believe its a great vehicle for the mission it was intended for, which is 7 day long lunar sorties. Basically Apollo on steroids. If that is what you want to do, this is your vehicle. For settlement, no. It doesn't do anything we haven't done before and it doesn't do it cheaper. If you intend for people to stay long times on the moon and use its resources, you don't need a vehicle this big (or if you have a vehicle this big, at least put more people on it).
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Offline M129K

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #20 on: 09/20/2014 10:41 am »
While I don't think space settlement should be the prime focus of government funded HSF, I voted for a "moderate" impact. The technologies developed for Orion or developed as part of a project involving Orion could be very useful at a later date, but probably won't be very significant in getting us closer to having a self sustaining base on the moon or Mars.

Offline Political Hack Wannabe

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #21 on: 09/21/2014 02:23 am »
I don't mean to nitpick semantics, but your definition of "space settlement" is important to determining Orion's impact.

1- "Settlement" as in "Colonization" - in the words of Nibb. No impact as colonization, or permanent habitation, won't occur within the Asteroid Belt and probably not in my lifetime.

2- Settlement as in a temporarily manned or rotated staffing surface structure; Orion is imperative as a means to transit from Earth to Lunar or Mars Orbit. No offering or proposal from Russia, Boeing, China or SpaceX can complete this task. If we are to establish Lunar or Martian outposts/stations of scientific discovery and development, Orion is our one and only ride. No Orion, no future beyond LEO.

3- Settlement as in a temporarily manned or rotated staffing in LEO, as in the ISS which is technically a "settlement in space"; Orion isn't really needed, nor is any LV development of the last half-century. Soyuz is as good as Dragon, so no need for Orion.

Well, I prefer to see what other people think, but since it is my poll

I define settlement is at least 10,000 people permanently off planet.  I'd prefer that to be 2 million, though

After the edit - I do find it interesting that far more people have weighed in on Orion and space settlement, vs ISS and space settlement or space settlement as a goal in general. 

We'll be doing SLS and Commercial Crew this coming week (I would've done them sooner, but this was an insane week)
« Last Edit: 09/21/2014 02:25 am by Political Hack Wannabe »
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Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #22 on: 09/21/2014 07:43 am »
{snip}
After the edit - I do find it interesting that far more people have weighed in on Orion and space settlement, vs ISS and space settlement or space settlement as a goal in general. 
{snip}

For a launch vehicle the size of the SLS a space craft the size of the Orion III would be appropriate.  Say 60 passengers.

Offline M129K

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #23 on: 09/21/2014 01:12 pm »
Quote
I define settlement is at least 10,000 people permanently off planet.  I'd prefer that to be 2 million, though
If that's your definition of "settlement" I'd like to be able to change my vote to "absolutely no effect whatsoever".

Offline JasonAW3

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #24 on: 09/23/2014 02:14 pm »
{snip}
After the edit - I do find it interesting that far more people have weighed in on Orion and space settlement, vs ISS and space settlement or space settlement as a goal in general. 
{snip}

For a launch vehicle the size of the SLS a space craft the size of the Orion III would be appropriate.  Say 60 passengers.

Yeah, but until someone figures out a way of building a nuclear powerplant that can survive deorbiting and an uncontrolled impact on Earth from orbital velocities without rupturing its' ultra light weight containment vessel, that also allows it to flash over super hot steam from regular water sufficent to launch this craft into a Middle High orbit, (part way between LEO and GEO) I'm thinking it's pretty much a pipe dream.
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Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #25 on: 09/23/2014 03:16 pm »
{snip}
After the edit - I do find it interesting that far more people have weighed in on Orion and space settlement, vs ISS and space settlement or space settlement as a goal in general. 
{snip}

For a launch vehicle the size of the SLS a space craft the size of the Orion III would be appropriate.  Say 60 passengers.

Yeah, but until someone figures out a way of building a nuclear powerplant that can survive deorbiting and an uncontrolled impact on Earth from orbital velocities without rupturing its' ultra light weight containment vessel, that also allows it to flash over super hot steam from regular water sufficent to launch this craft into a Middle High orbit, (part way between LEO and GEO) I'm thinking it's pretty much a pipe dream.

No need to go nuclear.  The SLS can lift 70 tonne to LEO.  The designers just have to work out how to design a reentry vehicle with a mass of ~1 tonne/person.

For reference the CST-100 masses at ~10 tonne for 7 people or 1.43 tonne/person.
Payload is negotiable so a 70/1.4 = 50 person spacecraft would do.

Offline TomH

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #26 on: 09/23/2014 04:20 pm »
Once again, the choices are invalid. The answer is either zero or negative. And Lar, Nibb IS correct. Regardless of Musk's billions, colonization is centuries into the future. He may well leave a flag or footprints in his lifetime, but colonization is a fantasy and a waste of money until technology is far more advanced than it is today. Starting all thes polls is silly.

Offline Lars-J

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #27 on: 09/23/2014 04:24 pm »
Once again, the choices are invalid. The answer is either zero or negative. And Lar, Nibb IS correct. Regardless of Musk's billions, colonization is centuries into the future. He may well leave a flag or footprints in his lifetime, but colonization is a fantasy and a waste of money until technology is far more advanced than it is today. Starting all thes polls is silly.

With your attitude, it will always be a "waste of money" until technology is more advanced. Technology can always be better.

I'm glad you weren't involved in the decision making when a moon landing was set as a goal within a decade.

Offline RanulfC

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #28 on: 09/23/2014 07:26 pm »
Once again, the choices are invalid. The answer is either zero or negative. And Lar, Nibb IS correct. Regardless of Musk's billions, colonization is centuries into the future. He may well leave a flag or footprints in his lifetime, but colonization is a fantasy and a waste of money until technology is far more advanced than it is today. Starting all thes polls is silly.

With your attitude, it will always be a "waste of money" until technology is more advanced. Technology can always be better.

I'm glad you weren't involved in the decision making when a moon landing was set as a goal within a decade.

Really? :) And "when" exactly was the "goal" of Space Settlement set for? And what "priority" is it as a National Goal of the United States of America? (Or anyone else with the needed money and resources required, Musk BTW has stated already HE is NOT going to build a Mars colony...) Having said that however it would NOT take "more advanced technology" and huge amounts of money upfront as long as anyone was actually INTERESTED in doing the job... It is however NOT on anyones radar at the moment other than a though experiment and far to often the people doing the "thinking" are far to focused on narrow and more often than not mutually exclusive "goals" and plans. All or nothing folks and focusing on only a SINGLE target hasn't done a much for getting us anywhere sutainable...

Randy
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Offline TomH

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #29 on: 09/23/2014 10:42 pm »
With your attitude, it will always be a "waste of money" until technology is more advanced. Technology can always be better.

I'm glad you weren't involved in the decision making when a moon landing was set as a goal within a decade.

And you don't know me at all. I was an absolute fanatic about the Apollo program; I still am. I laid awake in my sleeping bag along the shoulder of the highway all night on July 15, 1969, staring at that Saturn V bathed in floodlights, waiting to see the greatest milestone in history occur before my eyes. I am extremely enthusiastic about reaching Mars and hope to see it in my lifetime. Nevertheless, there is reality. Reaching Mars and performing experiments and reconisance is multiple orders of magnitude of difficulty below starting and sustaining a colony. Anyone who believes we will see a Mars colony (that survives) in our lifetime, or even within several lifetimes, does not understand the complexity of biological ecosystems. One of my several degrees is in biology, and my coursework included ecology. You cannot transplant a single species to another planet with a hostile environment and have it simply survive. The Earth is an entire biospohere and its complexity is beyond the ability of most to comprehend. It is not a matter of me having an attitude. It is a matter of naïveté on the part of those who are believers, but do not understand the biology, biochemistry, and technolological hurdles involved.

My desire to see humans on Mars is radically passionate. Nevertheless, I am smart enough and have enough related knowledge to know without any doubt that no colony can survive on Mars until our technology is far far more advanced than it is now or will be in the near future. All this hype about colonies is misguided.
« Last Edit: 09/23/2014 11:39 pm by TomH »

Offline Burninate

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #30 on: 09/24/2014 12:18 am »
Once again, the choices are invalid. The answer is either zero or negative. And Lar, Nibb IS correct. Regardless of Musk's billions, colonization is centuries into the future. He may well leave a flag or footprints in his lifetime, but colonization is a fantasy and a waste of money until technology is far more advanced than it is today. Starting all thes polls is silly.

Colonization is a goal that is trillions of dollars in the future, whether those trillions are spent spread out over two or three decades, or over two or three centuries.  We don't have the technology, but it's not going to develop itself, either.

No, Orion/SLS is negative return because one of the most important criteria for settling space is lowering costs and increasing flight rate, and the corrupt way we chose to attempt this was limited, and is now sucking down a large portion of our human spaceflight budget.

As a 'First step' sort of thing to regain Apollo capability & begin a path towards geometrically expanding our presence in space, Orion itself wouldn't be so bad, except we just paid three private sector designers to make us fantastically cheaper options with less conservative assumptions, in a much shorter amount of time.
« Last Edit: 09/24/2014 12:21 am by Burninate »

Offline Lars-J

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #31 on: 09/24/2014 07:42 am »
With your attitude, it will always be a "waste of money" until technology is more advanced. Technology can always be better.

I'm glad you weren't involved in the decision making when a moon landing was set as a goal within a decade.

And you don't know me at all. I was an absolute fanatic about the Apollo program; I still am. I laid awake in my sleeping bag along the shoulder of the highway all night on July 15, 1969, staring at that Saturn V bathed in floodlights, waiting to see the greatest milestone in history occur before my eyes. I am extremely enthusiastic about reaching Mars and hope to see it in my lifetime. Nevertheless, there is reality. Reaching Mars and performing experiments and reconisance is multiple orders of magnitude of difficulty below starting and sustaining a colony. Anyone who believes we will see a Mars colony (that survives) in our lifetime, or even within several lifetimes, does not understand the complexity of biological ecosystems. One of my several degrees is in biology, and my coursework included ecology. You cannot transplant a single species to another planet with a hostile environment and have it simply survive. The Earth is an entire biospohere and its complexity is beyond the ability of most to comprehend. It is not a matter of me having an attitude. It is a matter of naïveté on the part of those who are believers, but do not understand the biology, biochemistry, and technolological hurdles involved.

My desire to see humans on Mars is radically passionate. Nevertheless, I am smart enough and have enough related knowledge to know without any doubt that no colony can survive on Mars until our technology is far far more advanced than it is now or will be in the near future. All this hype about colonies is misguided.

You missed my point completely. Let me rephrase it for you: We did not have the technology to go to the Moon when Kennedy made his announcement. Not even close.

Now you say we need technology that is "far far more advanced" to make it to Mars and survive. Yes.

But like Apollo, if we as a country (or a rich person) decides to go to Mars, we will learn new things. Develop new technologies. I have no doubt that such a thing could be done in 20-30 years if we (or a well funded corporation) put our minds to it.

Do you see the Apollo analogy now? With your current attitude you WOULD have argued that a Moon mission should be postponed until we had "far far more advanced" technology.
« Last Edit: 09/24/2014 07:42 am by Lars-J »

Offline Nibb31

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #32 on: 09/24/2014 12:37 pm »
In the 1960's the technology for Apollo wasn't "developed", although the basic research was done and we knew it was possible. In modern NASA lingo, the less mature technologies involved were around TRL 4 or 5.

Mars colonies today aren't further than TRL 2. There is a lot of basic research that needs to be done before you can even consider moving to a development phase.

Offline TomH

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #33 on: 09/24/2014 04:03 pm »
With your attitude, it will always be a "waste of money" until technology is more advanced. Technology can always be better.

I'm glad you weren't involved in the decision making when a moon landing was set as a goal within a decade.

And you don't know me at all. I was an absolute fanatic about the Apollo program; I still am. I laid awake in my sleeping bag along the shoulder of the highway all night on July 15, 1969, staring at that Saturn V bathed in floodlights, waiting to see the greatest milestone in history occur before my eyes. I am extremely enthusiastic about reaching Mars and hope to see it in my lifetime. Nevertheless, there is reality. Reaching Mars and performing experiments and reconisance is multiple orders of magnitude of difficulty below starting and sustaining a colony. Anyone who believes we will see a Mars colony (that survives) in our lifetime, or even within several lifetimes, does not understand the complexity of biological ecosystems. One of my several degrees is in biology, and my coursework included ecology. You cannot transplant a single species to another planet with a hostile environment and have it simply survive. The Earth is an entire biospohere and its complexity is beyond the ability of most to comprehend. It is not a matter of me having an attitude. It is a matter of naïveté on the part of those who are believers, but do not understand the biology, biochemistry, and technolological hurdles involved.

My desire to see humans on Mars is radically passionate. Nevertheless, I am smart enough and have enough related knowledge to know without any doubt that no colony can survive on Mars until our technology is far far more advanced than it is now or will be in the near future. All this hype about colonies is misguided.

You missed my point completely. Let me rephrase it for you: We did not have the technology to go to the Moon when Kennedy made his announcement. Not even close.

Now you say we need technology that is "far far more advanced" to make it to Mars and survive. Yes.

But like Apollo, if we as a country (or a rich person) decides to go to Mars, we will learn new things. Develop new technologies. I have no doubt that such a thing could be done in 20-30 years if we (or a well funded corporation) put our minds to it.

Do you see the Apollo analogy now? With your current attitude you WOULD have argued that a Moon mission should be postponed until we had "far far more advanced" technology.

Balderdash, all that technology WAS within a decade of development. The technology needed for colonization is infinitely more sophisticated. You have no understanding of ecology and human physiology. You cannot take a single species out of a complex ecosystem, transplant it alone to such a hostile environment, and have it survive, thrive, and be self-sustaining. I believe we could establish a colony within 30 years, but it would not survive due to all kinds of physiological, medical, psychological, and other reasons. We could establish a research base like McMurdo Station and have personnel rotate in and out. Such a base would be dependent upon a steady import of supplies from the home world for a long time. The medical and psychological health of the personnel would require rotating assignments. A self sustaining colony that provides its own resources, takes care of all its own medical needs, and survives in situ on its own indefinitely is far more difficult than you realize.

Offline Lars-J

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #34 on: 09/24/2014 05:16 pm »
A self sustaining colony that provides its own resources, takes care of all its own medical needs, and survives in situ on its own indefinitely is far more difficult than you realize.

Well of course. It's a GIVEN that an early Mars colony would require a lot of imports, and would need it for some time. If you think that we shouldn't even attempt it until it can survive "in situ on its own indefinitely", then you are just setting the bar high for the point of winning an argument.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #35 on: 09/24/2014 07:46 pm »
Well, Musk and TomH are in disagreement. Musk has said living on Mars is rather easy and getting there is the hard part. Basically, Musk's approach was a pump. The pump will compress the martian atmosphere and plants will generate O2 and food. Obviously, you will probably need a few other chemicals like fertilizer and water. Anyways, any landing on Mars would likely be for long stays and so the difference between a "settlement" and  multiple crew rotations over a decade may be a distinction without a difference. ISRU could be as a simple as taking a martian rock and chiseling out chess pieces rather than buying it on Amazon and having it shipped there. My last comment is that the U.S. trade imbalance with the rest of the world would disqualify the U.S. as being "settled" under some of these definations. Such a deduction is absurd, and therefore trade balance is not a pre-requisite.

Offline nadreck

Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #36 on: 09/24/2014 09:06 pm »
Lets consider settlement off planet as a whole and not one base/colony. Currently 100% of all materials needed for a self-sufficient settlement go to human occupied off planet habitats from Earth. As individual bases are built and expand some of the most massive requirements will be sourced locally first such as water (for air, fuel, etc) Carbon, metals (and here it may be what is available and what will do in place of what we would use if we could import cheaply), and I imagine a priority on materials that can be used in 3-D printers.

Because of the massive delta-V of getting materials to LEO from Earth compared to just about anywhere we are considering placing a base in the next 100 years we are likely to see that as soon as a resource is conveniently produced in-situ in one location it will begin to be moved to those locations that are off earth in another location where that resource is difficult or impossible to produce locally (so maybe we get CHON chemicals from Mars) metals from asteroids, HE-3 from the moon all delivered to LEO.

Micro-Gravity 3D printing may become a viable business.

A more massive, and actually lower energy source of water might be a trojan ice asteroid of Jupiter or an ice moonlet and move the whole thing to LEO.

Ok a quick trip to wikipedia suggests that a lot of useful material could come from the moon (where a mass driver could easily send it to a lot of the destinations we were discussing).

A large part of the raw materials could come therefor early on the "settlement" process, the longer term thing is getting the actual manufacturing happening off earth.

So when we really have "settlement" happening is when we see that collectively all the 3-D printers off Earth can make all of the parts used to make the 3-D printers that are off Earth using feedstocks that come from anywhere but Earth.
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline RanulfC

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #37 on: 09/24/2014 09:25 pm »
Well, Musk and TomH are in disagreement. Musk has said living on Mars is rather easy and getting there is the hard part. Basically, Musk's approach was a pump. The pump will compress the martian atmosphere and plants will generate O2 and food. Obviously, you will probably need a few other chemicals like fertilizer and water. Anyways, any landing on Mars would likely be for long stays and so the difference between a "settlement" and  multiple crew rotations over a decade may be a distinction without a difference. ISRU could be as a simple as taking a martian rock and chiseling out chess pieces rather than buying it on Amazon and having it shipped there.

Musk tends to "simplify" when discussing the subject and he really should know better. It won't be THAT simple but it could be done with technology we have today. We just have to ship a lot in FIRST and that's going to cost a lot in and of itself :)

And the only "Orion" that would be a major factor is NOT the current one :)

Randy
From The Amazing Catstronaut on the Black Arrow LV:
British physics, old chap. It's undignified to belch flames and effluvia all over the pad, what. A true gentlemen's orbital conveyance lifts itself into the air unostentatiously, with the minimum of spectacle and a modicum of grace. Not like our American cousins' launch vehicles, eh?

Offline TomH

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #38 on: 09/24/2014 09:38 pm »
Musk does not have a good handle on all the medical, biological, and psychological ramifications. The toll all these things are going to take on the human body and psyche as months, then years on end roll by of never being outside, of the effects of radiation, a different g-load, of isolation from most of humanity, they are going to be of enormous difficulty. The number of bacteria that cover our epidermis is greater than the number of cells within our bodies. We cannot survive without them. These bacteria will get into the environment, mutate, and evolve and some will become pathogenic to us. This isn't speculation; I took microbiology, genetics, physiology, biochemistry, organic chemistry, evolution, etc. I know how these things work.

In my view, most people just don't understand the complexities. I will bow out of this discussion now. I have said what I want to.

Edit/Lar: Soften this a bit. (the alternative was to delete it entirely)
« Last Edit: 09/24/2014 10:37 pm by Lar »

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #39 on: 09/25/2014 11:26 am »
Right, so this was getting way too rowdy and annoying. Please do not be stupid on these threads guys.
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Offline daveklingler

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #40 on: 09/26/2014 08:33 pm »
Truthfully, I don't understand what Orion even has to do with space settlement, other than taking funding away from more valuable goals like a tethered 1g artificial gravity proof-of-concept, empty stage to small MPLM-based outpost or something similar.

Now THAT would be a huge contribution to space settlement.

Offline dks13827

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #41 on: 09/27/2014 01:45 am »
Orion:   " However all it can do is dock and orbit...not much else."

There are several comments similar to this and I find the lack of knowledge, of some,  to be simply unbelievable !!

The problem is reentry !  Whether  it is   17,500,  25,000 or  35,000 MPH.
That is the whole ballgame  !!!   You need to understand that.

That is why no one is planning on selling rides   TO  ORBIT  AND  BACK !!!!
It is too hard and expensive.  The tourist rides are all suborbital.   You might do some more learning on this.

The Constellation designers were not stupid, you know.  They knew there would only be
money for one type of vehicle design for the next 50 years or whatever.  You have to start the design with:  'how do we get them back !'.

I will state again a significant point:  Orion was made to go to deep space and return.  That makes it a very special vehicle indeed.
« Last Edit: 12/06/2014 04:43 pm by dks13827 »

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #42 on: 09/27/2014 02:47 am »
Orion:   " However all it can do is dock and orbit...not much else."

There are several comments similar to this and I find the lack of knowledge, of some,  to be simply unbelievable !!

The problem is reentry !!!!!!       Whether  it is   17,500,  25,000 or  35,000 MPH.
That is the whole ballgame  !!!   You need to understand that.

{snip}

They know and understand.

They also know that if something costs 10 times the price of a Dragon then it has to do ~10 times as many things as a Dragon.

Offline dks13827

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #43 on: 09/27/2014 04:12 am »
"They know and understand."'

They do ?   Look at the poll.  Most seem to think Orion isn't much.  Well, not only is it far beyond any power point spacecraft that I have seen, it is actually close to a test flight into space.  However I would have worded the poll a bit differently.   I would have stipulated that the question actually is:   'If we ever decide to actually do something again, would Orion help in that regard."  It would. 
Orion or a clone of it is the only way you will get back through a reentry from deep space.  Anyone reading this thread should look at the poll results that show an opinion that 'Orion is not much' and ask themselves, do these guys voting in the poll actually  'get it ' ?  The answer is obvious.  They don't.  There are many 'for real' spacecraft designers out there who have actually done it that you can still talk to.  Email them.  Heck, talk to some of the X-15 guys.  They also actually know something.
« Last Edit: 09/28/2014 07:24 pm by dks13827 »

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #44 on: 09/27/2014 04:38 am »
Most seem to think Orion isn't much.  Well, not only is it far beyond any power point spacecraft that I have seen, it is actually close to a test flight into space.

With no service module, it's essentially a brick they'll be launching.

Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

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