Author Topic: The Jason and the Falconauts (Falcon 9/Jason-3) Party Thread  (Read 77333 times)

Offline macpacheco

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I think SpaceX is still deciding if ASDS or RTLS before announcing.
If the west coast ASDS is ready to go, might be the most interesting choice.
This stage won't be nearly as valuable as full thrust ones (tank sizes different at a minimum, *maybe* engines are incompatible).
Lowest cost to perfect ASDS landing. If it fails, they loose a stage that might not have been that useful anyways.
Anyhow, one week from launch we should know this at least on the L2 side of things. Late next Monday (Jan, 11th).

However if that stage could run at full thrust, it might make the best launch until it breaks test article (don't need extra RP1/LOX capacity to launch with just a Stage 2 simulator on top).
« Last Edit: 01/04/2016 01:44 am by macpacheco »
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Offline Kabloona

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I think SpaceX is still deciding if ASDS or RTLS before announcing.

According to Helodriver, the tent is still set up on the landing pad. And it doesn't seem to have been used yet for its primary purpose, whatever that is. So it seems unlikely Jason 3 will be landing there.

Hate to be a party pooper. But there will still be a West Coast party if they pull off a barge landing.
« Last Edit: 01/04/2016 02:27 am by Kabloona »

Offline CJ

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I think SpaceX is still deciding if ASDS or RTLS before announcing.
If the west coast ASDS is ready to go, might be the most interesting choice.
This stage won't be nearly as valuable as full thrust ones (tank sizes different at a minimum, *maybe* engines are incompatible).
Lowest cost to perfect ASDS landing. If it fails, they loose a stage that might not have been that useful anyways.
Anyhow, one week from launch we should know this at least on the L2 side of things. Late next Monday (Jan, 11th).

However if that stage could run at full thrust, it might make the best launch until it breaks test article (don't need extra RP1/LOX capacity to launch with just a Stage 2 simulator on top).

My SWAG is that, assuming they have permission to RTLS, weather will play a role in the decision; if the sea state is unsuitable for ASDS landing (those waters often have a huge swell in January), they'll RTLS. (assuming they move that tent)

My further guess is that they'll prefer ASDS, because as you say, this LV makes a good test for that.

It's a near certainty we'll know what the preference is several days pre-lunch, because if it's ASDS, the ASDS will be leaving port.

Personally, I think that if rough seas are a problem, they should just park the ASDS at Ports'O Call in Long Beach Harbor and land the F9 on it there. It'd be a huge crowd-pleaser, and also help out one of the restaurants there (a BBQ place).   :)

Offline wannamoonbase

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Only on the 2nd page of the party thread with 12 days to go till launch?  Interest in this launch is much lower than past ones.

I think it's likely to be a ASDS landing attempt, seas and weather permitting.  V1.1 is less capable than FT, might be harder to get permission for RTLS. 

This core, if it is recovered, likely wouldn't be used again anyway, so the improved probability of recovering on land doesn't add a reusable core.

Although, and I don't think this is likely, a perfect use for the V1.1 core would be the in-flight abort test for D2 later this year.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline gadgetmind

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Although, and I don't think this is likely, a perfect use for the V1.1 core would be the in-flight abort test for D2 later this year.

I guess it depends on whether they maintain the ability to fuel/launch the older cores. As the role of the S1 in the in-flight abort test is to 1) get to Max-Q, 2) die horribly, an older core that you'd rather retire would seem to be a great choice compared to a $60 million asset.

Worst case is it malfunctions and you have to pop the Dragon 2 too early.

Offline dror

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Only on the 2nd page of the party thread with 12 days to go till launch?  Interest in this launch is much lower than past ones.


Because landing space rockets looks so easy now
Space is hard immensely complex and high risk !

Offline dror

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Although, and I don't think this is likely, a perfect use for the V1.1 core would be the in-flight abort test for D2 later this year.

Didn't they aim for a grasshoper2 in new mexico with the next core?
Space is hard immensely complex and high risk !

Offline gadgetmind

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Only on the 2nd page of the party thread with 12 days to go till launch?  Interest in this launch is much lower than past ones.

I recall one of my friends saying during the Shuttle's second launch that it would soon be just like watching a train leave a station and everyone would lose interest.  It never quite happened, but if SpaceX get up to 20 launches a year, will everyone eagerly track every one?


Offline ClayJar

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I recall one of my friends saying during the Shuttle's second launch that it would soon be just like watching a train leave a station and everyone would lose interest.  It never quite happened, but if SpaceX get up to 20 launches a year, will everyone eagerly track every one?

Everyone? Nah.  Us? Youbetcha.  ;D

Offline wannamoonbase

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Although, and I don't think this is likely, a perfect use for the V1.1 core would be the in-flight abort test for D2 later this year.

Didn't they aim for a grasshoper2 in new mexico with the next core?

I haven't heard that idea in sometime.  I question the value of that testing program once you can do it with operational flights and know it works.

Regarding flights becoming routine.  I think I can follow every launch and recovery until it gets above 1 per week. 

That is likely 4+ years away at the soonest.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline 411rocket

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Although, and I don't think this is likely, a perfect use for the V1.1 core would be the in-flight abort test for D2 later this year.

Didn't they aim for a grasshoper2 in new mexico with the next core?

I haven't heard that idea in sometime.  I question the value of that testing program once you can do it with operational flights and know it works.

Regarding flights becoming routine.  I think I can follow every launch and recovery until it gets above 1 per week. 

That is likely 4+ years away at the soonest.

Providing they land this core, I can see it being tested until destruction, in New Mexico. As Dev2 is slated for the in-flight Abort & this may give an idea on how many re-flights are possible.

Offline toruonu


Providing they land this core, I can see it being tested until destruction, in New Mexico. As Dev2 is slated for the in-flight Abort & this may give an idea on how many re-flights are possible.

I wonder if they'd broadcast every attempt :) would be fun to watch the 20+ laumches until destruction ;) then again live streaming a cabloom might not be good pr ;)

Offline abaddon

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There are 16 games in an NFL regular season.  An NFL game averages 3:11 this year: http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/09/nfl-record-for-most-penalties-game-season-2015-holding-nfl-game-length-average-taking-longer.  SpaceX probably won't reach 16 flights this year, and the average flight broadcast is under 30 minutes.

That's a pretty low bar, though.  The NBA season is 82 games.  The MLB season is 162 games.  I doubt there are many fans that watch all 162 games their team plays in a year, but I could definitely get used to a launch a week cadence.  That's only 52 launches!


Offline CraigLieb

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RE: not much party thread activity given 12 days to launch...
Since the CRS-7 loss I think there is less giddy party blather (proposed acronym: GPB), and more serious discussion/debate.  As a result, the party threads lose readers and participation. SOooo, we need to up the blather quotient. Can someone do an analysis on which pieces of GPB are most commented and liked? 

just sayin'   ::)
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Offline wannamoonbase

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Providing they land this core, I can see it being tested until destruction, in New Mexico. As Dev2 is slated for the in-flight Abort & this may give an idea on how many re-flights are possible.

Sorry, I still see limited use in New Mexico testing.  Practical paying flights followed by inspections will deliver realistic data from real flights for far less cost.  SpaceX would be better off focusing on producing, reusing and flying stages than a desert stunt.

Edit: Also, this being a V1.1 and not a FT stage wouldn't yield completely applicable results.

There is obviously a useful life to a stage, is it 2 flights, 5, 20? They won't know until going to that extend, but it's doubtful that if the stage checks out as suitable it would produce surprises in flight.
« Last Edit: 01/05/2016 07:09 pm by wannamoonbase »
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline tleski

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RE: not much party thread activity given 12 days to launch...
Since the CRS-7 loss I think there is less giddy party blather (proposed acronym: GPB), and more serious discussion/debate.  As a result, the party threads lose readers and participation. SOooo, we need to up the blather quotient. Can someone do an analysis on which pieces of GPB are most commented and liked? 

just sayin'   ::)

I don't know what to think about this. Elon doesn't approve creation of redundant acronyms ;)

Offline ClayJar

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RE: not much party thread activity given 12 days to launch...
Since the CRS-7 loss I think there is less giddy party blather (proposed acronym: GPB), and more serious discussion/debate.  As a result, the party threads lose readers and participation. SOooo, we need to up the blather quotient. Can someone do an analysis on which pieces of GPB are most commented and liked? 

just sayin'   ::)

I don't know what to think about this. Elon doesn't approve creation of redundant acronyms ;)

Well, since technically it's an initialism and not an acronym, that's all right, eh?  8)

(How's that for party banter? ;D)

Offline Bubbinski

I would feel in even more of a party mood if Estes or SpaceX would put out a flying semi-scale Falcon 9 FT, 1.1, or Falcon Heavy.  Or even if Revell were to make a 1/72 or 1/144 Falcon 9/1.1/FT/FH or Dragon v2. 

I know that Apogee in CO put out a model rocket that lands on its legs, recent events have made me a little interested in getting this rocket.....
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline the_other_Doug

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I would feel in even more of a party mood if Estes or SpaceX would put out a flying semi-scale Falcon 9 FT, 1.1, or Falcon Heavy.  Or even if Revell were to make a 1/72 or 1/144 Falcon 9/1.1/FT/FH or Dragon v2. 

I know that Apogee in CO put out a model rocket that lands on its legs, recent events have made me a little interested in getting this rocket.....

As I understand it, SpaceX will sell a one-half scale model kit* of the Falcon 9.  But you have to give them back 80% of the profit you make from small-sat launches... ;)

* - batteries not included.
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline Craftyatom

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Am I the only one who isn't quite grasping the thought of Falcon 9 v1.1 being the previous iteration?  Maybe it's because of the gap after CRS-7, maybe it's because 1.1 is relatively recent, maybe it's because FT doesn't have a very noticeable appearance change, but to me, the previous version of the Falcon 9 had its engines in a square.

I keep thinking, "man, Jason-3 is gonna look so ugly on that square-based Falcon 9", and then having to correct myself.

Maybe it's just me.
All aboard the HSF hype train!  Choo Choo!

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