Author Topic: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis  (Read 465286 times)

Offline Norm38

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #60 on: 12/07/2013 07:14 pm »
^^^ Yes they have locked down the principal configuration. The v1.1 design already fully supports reusability, as demonstrated by the Cassiope stage almost making a soft landing. And by SES-8 performing RCS burns. Except for the landing legs, all the hardware is already in place.

The vehicle architecture is locked down, the pad config is locked down. They can make tweaks as needed for certain flights without affecting the others.

Offline savuporo

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #61 on: 12/08/2013 01:49 am »
Ok thats not how i understand configuration management, but then i work in a different industry.
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Offline Kabloona

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #62 on: 12/08/2013 03:14 am »
Ok thats not how i understand configuration management, but then i work in a different industry.

"Configuration management" in this business doesn't mean that the launch vehicle's configuration never changes. Configuration management is the process which assures that each particular vehicle gets assembled using the correct part numbers and revision levels for each component.

Offline aero

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #63 on: 12/08/2013 03:17 am »
And that there is an effective change control system in place.
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Offline Wetmelon

Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #64 on: 12/09/2013 07:22 am »
So the ordering is significant, right?

Meaning they've filled up January, and want to do FH early in the year?

Early in what year? ;)

Per Mr. Musk in the post-CASSIOPE presser, irrc, June/July 2014.

Offline beancounter

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #65 on: 12/16/2013 04:43 am »
Am I correct in thinking that there is so far, only one FH confirmed customer?
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Offline sdsds

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #66 on: 12/16/2013 05:07 am »
Am I correct in thinking that there is so far, only one FH confirmed customer?

Three flights are shown on the web site manifest:

2014, FALCON HEAVY DEMO FLIGHT, VANDENBERG, FALCON HEAVY
2015, STP-2 US AIR FORCE, CAPE CANAVERAL, FALCON HEAVY
2017, INTELSAT, CAPE CANAVERAL, FALCON HEAVY
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Offline beancounter

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #67 on: 12/16/2013 06:22 am »
Am I correct in thinking that there is so far, only one FH confirmed customer?

Three flights are shown on the web site manifest:

2014, FALCON HEAVY DEMO FLIGHT, VANDENBERG, FALCON HEAVY
2015, STP-2 US AIR FORCE, CAPE CANAVERAL, FALCON HEAVY
2017, INTELSAT, CAPE CANAVERAL, FALCON HEAVY

Ok thanks, so only 2 !?
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #68 on: 12/16/2013 06:32 am »
Am I correct in thinking that there is so far, only one FH confirmed customer?

Three flights are shown on the web site manifest:

2014, FALCON HEAVY DEMO FLIGHT, VANDENBERG, FALCON HEAVY
2015, STP-2 US AIR FORCE, CAPE CANAVERAL, FALCON HEAVY
2017, INTELSAT, CAPE CANAVERAL, FALCON HEAVY

Ok thanks, so only 2 !?
2 Customers. But one of them is DoD. VERY deep pockets, even during cutbacks. Also, not surprising only 2 customers since few need such a powerful launch vehicle (Falcon 9 v1.1 covers a big part of the market...).
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Offline MP99

Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #69 on: 12/16/2013 06:47 am »
Am I correct in thinking that there is so far, only one FH confirmed customer?

Three flights are shown on the web site manifest:

2014, FALCON HEAVY DEMO FLIGHT, VANDENBERG, FALCON HEAVY
2015, STP-2 US AIR FORCE, CAPE CANAVERAL, FALCON HEAVY
2017, INTELSAT, CAPE CANAVERAL, FALCON HEAVY

Ok thanks, so only 2 !?
2 Customers. But one of them is DoD. VERY deep pockets, even during cutbacks. Also, not surprising only 2 customers since few need such a powerful launch vehicle (Falcon 9 v1.1 covers a big part of the market...).

Perhaps no surprise that the larger comm-sats have a wait and see approach to FH.

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Online smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #70 on: 12/16/2013 12:59 pm »
Am I correct in thinking that there is so far, only one FH confirmed customer?

Three flights are shown on the web site manifest:

2014, FALCON HEAVY DEMO FLIGHT, VANDENBERG, FALCON HEAVY
2015, STP-2 US AIR FORCE, CAPE CANAVERAL, FALCON HEAVY
2017, INTELSAT, CAPE CANAVERAL, FALCON HEAVY

Ok thanks, so only 2 !?

Actually, there is one more  - SES
About a year ago there was presser about new contract SpaceX-SES, for three more launches. IIRC, it said that they contracted 3 launches of F9 or FH, but did not specify the number of FH.

Offline Skyrocket

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #71 on: 12/16/2013 01:24 pm »
Am I correct in thinking that there is so far, only one FH confirmed customer?

Three flights are shown on the web site manifest:

2014, FALCON HEAVY DEMO FLIGHT, VANDENBERG, FALCON HEAVY
2015, STP-2 US AIR FORCE, CAPE CANAVERAL, FALCON HEAVY
2017, INTELSAT, CAPE CANAVERAL, FALCON HEAVY

Ok thanks, so only 2 !?

Actually, there is one more  - SES
About a year ago there was presser about new contract SpaceX-SES, for three more launches. IIRC, it said that they contracted 3 launches of F9 or FH, but did not specify the number of FH.

Actually the SES contract might not inlcude a FH at all.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #72 on: 12/16/2013 05:11 pm »
There was article recently about SES switching to SEP satellites, these should be lighter so reducing need for FH.

Online smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #73 on: 12/17/2013 08:16 am »
There was article recently about SES switching to SEP satellites, these should be lighter so reducing need for FH.
"SEP satellites" - what does it stand for?

Offline Joffan

Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #74 on: 12/17/2013 08:18 am »
There was article recently about SES switching to SEP satellites, these should be lighter so reducing need for FH.
"SEP satellites" - what does it stand for?
I took it to mean solar electric propulsion = ion drives using PV power.
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Offline Garrett

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #75 on: 12/17/2013 12:48 pm »
Am I correct in thinking that there is so far, only one FH confirmed customer?
Three flights are shown on the web site manifest:
2014, FALCON HEAVY DEMO FLIGHT, VANDENBERG, FALCON HEAVY
2015, STP-2 US AIR FORCE, CAPE CANAVERAL, FALCON HEAVY
2017, INTELSAT, CAPE CANAVERAL, FALCON HEAVY

Ok thanks, so only 2 !?

Elon expects 10 FH flights per year "without any miracles". But he didn't mention a timeline/year for that to occur.

Assuming, optimistically, that the first FH will fly in Q4 2014, coupled with the massive F9 backlog and the lack of info with regards the current state of factory production, there is likely plenty of work to be done before SpaceX can accommodate more than one FH per year.

If the flight rate does pick up this year as promised, then I would imagine that an increase in FH orders would appear for the beyond 2017 timeframe.
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Offline Mariusuiram

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #76 on: 12/17/2013 12:56 pm »
There was article recently about SES switching to SEP satellites, these should be lighter so reducing need for FH.
"SEP satellites" - what does it stand for?

Solar Electric Propulsion. My understanding was not lighter, but lower orbit. So if SES can get launched into a lower orbit and use SEP to get to GSO, it can save money on launch costs. And iF9 could launch even an 8-10 ton commsat to LEO.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #77 on: 12/17/2013 02:06 pm »
Might be worth noting, the current contracted Boeing SEP satellites will not start from LEO, but a GTO like orbit. The point on this generation is SEP for circularization, not the entire trip from LEO. (That was in the threads when it was first announced)

Does anyone remember from the press'ers what the delta V the Asia Broadcast/ SATMEX satellites needed to provide. I thought it was shy of GTO, but still a HEO transfer orbit.
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Offline Prober

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #78 on: 12/17/2013 02:26 pm »
Am I correct in thinking that there is so far, only one FH confirmed customer?

Three flights are shown on the web site manifest:

2014, FALCON HEAVY DEMO FLIGHT, VANDENBERG, FALCON HEAVY
2015, STP-2 US AIR FORCE, CAPE CANAVERAL, FALCON HEAVY
2017, INTELSAT, CAPE CANAVERAL, FALCON HEAVY

Ok thanks, so only 2 !?
2 Customers. But one of them is DoD. VERY deep pockets, even during cutbacks. Also, not surprising only 2 customers since few need such a powerful launch vehicle (Falcon 9 v1.1 covers a big part of the market...).

IMHO, FH should be put on the back burner and SpaceX should focus resources on getting F9 launches caught up. Enough launches scheduled on F9 to be adding additional pressures of another new launcher.  Besides, it will put 3 cores back into the launch schedule.
 
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Offline baldusi

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #79 on: 12/17/2013 02:32 pm »
There was article recently about SES switching to SEP satellites, these should be lighter so reducing need for FH.
"SEP satellites" - what does it stand for?

Solar Electric Propulsion. My understanding was not lighter, but lower orbit. So if SES can get launched into a lower orbit and use SEP to get to GSO, it can save money on launch costs. And iF9 could launch even an 8-10 ton commsat to LEO.

Nope, they are lighter. The kick engine plus the required propellant for circularization is about 40% of a GTO launch weight. Since you trade 320s isp propellant (pressure fed hypergolic) for 3000s (xenon ions), you can use a lot less fuel. You do trade the transfer time (about six months, I believe). And you have a pass through the harsher places of the Van Allen belt, which requires some stronger solar cells, for example.

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