Author Topic: Proposed Europa Missions  (Read 640934 times)

Offline Star One

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #80 on: 12/31/2012 05:08 pm »
I would favour taking all the money from the Discovery & New Frontiers budgets for however long it takes and putting it into this instead. As the second highest ranked priority after Mars sample return I regard the financing of this project as far more important than any project that either of these two programmes might be financed for at this time.

It's fun to have opinions, isn' it?

Is there any good reason not to go this route when money is tight?

Yes.

Have you read the decadal survey? Do you know what it says? Are you familiar with the history of American planetary science programs over the past thirty years?

I'm guessing that the answers to all my questions are "no."

But what the heck, here goes:

-the priorities for the American planetary science program are established in the planetary science decadal survey. That decadal survey states the EXACT OPPOSITE of what you just asked. It states that when money gets tight, the first thing to do is to scale back or delay flagship class programs like the Europa mission. Only after that is done should cuts be made in other areas, like New Frontiers and Discovery. You can find the decision rules in the decadal survey. At no point does it say that smaller missions should be sacrificed for larger missions.

-Europa is ranked second to the Mars caching rover in the decadal survey. Unfortunately, what this means is that it will not get funded in this decade. Even assuming a flat budget, or even one with a slight increase, the decadal survey does not say do both flagship missions. Now there are a lot of reasons why that happened (the big one being that the Europa mission that was presented to the decadal survey was a bellybuster and not affordable, and it took a blow to the head for the Europa community to actually come up with an affordable mission, which they have now apparently done), but them's the breaks.

-if you want a good example of why what you proposed is a stupid idea, take a look at the astronomy and astrophysics program at NASA. They have sacrificed all their small and medium missions in favor of JWST, which is now eating their lunch. Focusing on a single large mission puts you in a situation where you will have one or two missions per decade vs. half a dozen or more.

-if you want a good example of what could happen, look at NASA's planetary science program during the 1970s into the 1980s. They got into a vicious cycle of fewer and fewer larger and more expensive missions. The result was what many people call "the lost decade" in planetary science. You can see various effects of this, such as 17 years between Mars missions culminating in the very expensive Mars Observer failing on its way to Mars. It's a bad idea to fall into that circle again.

1. I have made a start on the decadal survey but what with Christmas & the new year haven't got any further than that.

2. As to JWST one would hope that NASA would have learnt their lessons from the problems with the management of that project and would seek not to repeat them with any similar large-scale Mission. Also just because they have had issues with JWST I fail to see how that should mean that they will automatically have problems with the management of any future large scale projects.

3. If your logic is accepted then what the heck is NASA doing starting another major project like building a second flagship Martian rover. The re-use of spares aside your logic would dictate that the cost of its development is bound to lean in an upwards direction and impact on other smaller projects.

4. Some might argue that this current fixation on Mars represents a potential lost decade (or longer) of exploration of the rest of the Solar System.
« Last Edit: 12/31/2012 05:18 pm by Star One »

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #81 on: 12/31/2012 06:05 pm »
1. I have made a start on the decadal survey but what with Christmas & the new year haven't got any further than that.

2. As to JWST one would hope that NASA would have learnt their lessons from the problems with the management of that project and would seek not to repeat them with any similar large-scale Mission. Also just because they have had issues with JWST I fail to see how that should mean that they will automatically have problems with the management of any future large scale projects.

3. If your logic is accepted then what the heck is NASA doing starting another major project like building a second flagship Martian rover. The re-use of spares aside your logic would dictate that the cost of its development is bound to lean in an upwards direction and impact on other smaller projects.

1-Good for you. We need knowledgeable people.

2 and 3-Balance. Balance. Balance. Balance. Balance.

Maybe I should repeat that again: Balance.

The decadal survey says to pursue a "balanced" program of small, medium, and large missions. It says that if money gets tight, you do NOT cancel the small and medium missions only to pursue a single big mission. It says that if money gets tight, you delay or de-scope the flagship, and protect the smaller missions, existing missions, and research and analysis funding.

I agree that just because JWST went pear-shaped that this does not mean that other large spacecraft missions will also do so. But the danger is that a flagship class mission that goes over budget is so big that it squashes everything else. For instance, a 20% cost overrun on a $2 billion flagship mission is enough to wipe out an entire Discovery class mission. But I'd also note that this is irrelevant to what you were proposing--you were proposing wiping out all the smaller stuff to fund the big mission that you think is cool, and that's not the way that things work, or should work.

Offline simonbp

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #82 on: 01/01/2013 02:29 am »
The decadal survey says to pursue a "balanced" program of small, medium, and large missions. It says that if money gets tight, you do NOT cancel the small and medium missions only to pursue a single big mission. It says that if money gets tight, you delay or de-scope the flagship, and protect the smaller missions, existing missions, and research and analysis funding.

Advice which they appear to have completely ignored. The mood at DPS NASA night was positively sour when Jim Green confirmed that there would be no new Discovery selection until 2017. But apparently we've got money for another giant Mars rover!

Those of us in the Not Mars (and Not Geology for that matter) planetary community cannot help but feel rather abused.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #83 on: 01/01/2013 03:06 am »
Advice which they appear to have completely ignored. The mood at DPS NASA night was positively sour when Jim Green confirmed that there would be no new Discovery selection until 2017. But apparently we've got money for another giant Mars rover!

Those of us in the Not Mars (and Not Geology for that matter) planetary community cannot help but feel rather abused.

The fact that OMB completely ignored the decadal survey was not lost on many people. The announcement of the Mars 2020 rover appears to be a reluctant acquiescence to do the decadal's top flagship recommendation--doing the right thing after exhausting the alternatives.

« Last Edit: 01/01/2013 03:55 am by Blackstar »

Offline Star One

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #84 on: 01/01/2013 04:10 pm »
Advice which they appear to have completely ignored. The mood at DPS NASA night was positively sour when Jim Green confirmed that there would be no new Discovery selection until 2017. But apparently we've got money for another giant Mars rover!

Those of us in the Not Mars (and Not Geology for that matter) planetary community cannot help but feel rather abused.

The fact that OMB completely ignored the decadal survey was not lost on many people. The announcement of the Mars 2020 rover appears to be a reluctant acquiescence to do the decadal's top flagship recommendation--doing the right thing after exhausting the alternatives.



So much for your argument on balance when NASA themselves don't seem to be following that mantra?

In fact have they not just done to a degree what I was talking about which is to take money from other smaller projects to fund a larger project in the form of a second Martian rover?

As to reading the DS well the copy I have, unless, it's suddenly an extended version, is 410 pages long (as you no doubt already know) & having only recently got my hands on it I might be excused for not having read it all yet. :-\ 
« Last Edit: 01/01/2013 04:16 pm by Star One »

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #85 on: 01/01/2013 10:06 pm »
1-So much for your argument on balance when NASA themselves don't seem to be following that mantra?

2-In fact have they not just done to a degree what I was talking about which is to take money from other smaller projects to fund a larger project in the form of a second Martian rover?

3-As to reading the DS well the copy I have, unless, it's suddenly an extended version, is 410 pages long (as you no doubt already know) & having only recently got my hands on it I might be excused for not having read it all yet. :-\ 

1-No. A bad idea is a bad idea no matter who comes up with it. But I'd note that your bad idea is different than what OMB has done. In the FY2013 proposed budget, the OMB essentially killed the Mars flagship and cut money across the board from everything else. That's not really what you were proposing, which was to kill all the small and medium stuff and pump it into the flagship mission that you think is cool.

2-No. The cuts to small and medium missions came before the most recent proposal to revive the Mars rover idea. See also #1 above.

3-You don't need to read the entire thing, although doing so would give you a leg up on everybody (assuming you understand it). The executive summary does a good job of explaining what and why. It also explains the decision rules.

Offline Star One

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #86 on: 02/17/2013 06:41 pm »
New article on the proposed Europa Clipper.

Quote
"On Earth, everywhere where there's liquid water, we find life," said Robert Pappalardo, a senior research scientist at Nasa's jet propulsion laboratory in California, who led the design of the Europa Clipper.

"Mars exploration is part of the bigger picture of human exploration," said Pappalardo. "However, part of Nasa's mission is to go explore and that should include places that are an extremely high scientific priority. It really is one of the most profound questions we can ask: is there life elsewhere in the solar system?"

Whereas Mars might have been habitable billions of years ago, he said, Europa might be a habitable environment for life today. If it took 50 years before humans ended up sending probes and then landers to Europa, Pappalardo said, "we're going to look back and say we should have been doing this all along – and that would be tragic".

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2013/feb/15/nasa-europa-clipper-mission-jupiter-moon?INTCMP=SRCH
« Last Edit: 02/17/2013 06:42 pm by Star One »

Offline Dalhousie

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #87 on: 02/17/2013 10:33 pm »
The decadal survey says to pursue a "balanced" program of small, medium, and large missions. It says that if money gets tight, you do NOT cancel the small and medium missions only to pursue a single big mission. It says that if money gets tight, you delay or de-scope the flagship, and protect the smaller missions, existing missions, and research and analysis funding.

Advice which they appear to have completely ignored. The mood at DPS NASA night was positively sour when Jim Green confirmed that there would be no new Discovery selection until 2017. But apparently we've got money for another giant Mars rover!

Those of us in the Not Mars (and Not Geology for that matter) planetary community cannot help but feel rather abused.

Whatever "Not Mars" group you belong to, you are getting more than the Mars people were getting between 1976 and 1996.
Apologies in advance for any lack of civility - it's unintended

Offline truth is life

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #88 on: 02/22/2013 02:18 am »
Whatever "Not Mars" group you belong to, you are getting more than the Mars people were getting between 1976 and 1996.

Ice giants? There has, quite literally, not been an ice giants mission since before I was born (if only by a matter of days).

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #89 on: 03/06/2013 09:37 pm »
Had an interesting conversation with a NASA official today. Apparently the solar powered Europa mission is still considered rather dicey. Lifetime is low, and there is limited confidence in the solar option in terms of risk. As a result, NASA is going to keep open the option of using the MMRTG on a future Europa mission.

Offline spectre9

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #90 on: 03/06/2013 10:07 pm »
Thanks for that update Blackstar.

Hopefully this happens not long after the Mars 2020 rover.... and I'm still alive when it makes JOI.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #91 on: 03/22/2013 08:10 pm »
Well, uh oh...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21341176

Ice blades threaten Europa landing
By Paul Rincon Science editor, BBC News website, The Woodlands, Texas

Jupiter's icy moon Europa is a prime target for future space missions as it harbours a buried ocean that could have the right conditions for life.

But attempts to land may face a major hazard: jagged "blades" of ice up to 10m long.

A major US conference has heard the moon may have ideal conditions for icy spikes called "penitentes" to form.

Scientists would like to send a lander down to sample surface regions where water wells up through the icy crust.

These areas could allow a robotic probe to sample a proxy for ocean water that lies several kilometres deep.

Details of the penitentes theory were announced as scientists outlined another proposal to explore the jovian moon with robotic spacecraft.

On Earth, these features (so named because of their resemblance to the pointed caps worn by "penitents" in Easter processions around the Spanish-speaking world) form in high altitude regions such as the Andes.

Here, the air is both cold and dry, allowing ice to sublimate (turn from a solid into vapour without passing through a liquid phase).

Penitentes begin to form when irregularities in the surface of the snow are enhanced by the Sun's energy. These furrows then act as a trap for solar radiation, and, as they deepen, the tall peaks are left behind.
Sun overhead

Dr Daniel Hobley, from the University of Colorado, who presented his research at the 44th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference in Texas on Tuesday, said the formation of penitentes also required the Sun to be overhead as much as possible.

"Light coming in at a high angle will illuminate the sides of the blades, causing them to retreat away," he explained.

On Earth, this restricts them to between 30 degrees latitude from the equator.

"Europa is very strongly tidally locked to Jupiter and Jupiter is very strongly tidally locked to the plane of the Sun. So the Sun is always coming down straight from above on Europa," said Dr Hobley, so the moon fulfils this requirement nicely.

He added: "You need a strong thermal gradient between the spike at the top of the penitente and the pit at the bottom. So any mechanism that acts to suppress that, i.e. warm cloudy days - or hot air - will also kill them."

With its negligible atmosphere, this wouldn't be a problem on Europa, suggesting the moon could have more or less ideal conditions for the formation of these icy blades.

"From our point of view, if the surface of Europa is subliming - if it is being sculpted by the sunlight - it will form these features," Dr Hobley told BBC News.
« Last Edit: 03/22/2013 08:11 pm by Blackstar »

Offline baldusi

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #92 on: 03/22/2013 08:23 pm »
Ouch! What sort of instrument would they need to fly there to get that sort of resolution? Were they planning on a retroburn just before the land? That would melt almost anything. Would leave a big hole to land, too.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #93 on: 03/22/2013 08:50 pm »
Ouch! What sort of instrument would they need to fly there to get that sort of resolution? Were they planning on a retroburn just before the land? That would melt almost anything. Would leave a big hole to land, too.

If you read the article all the way through, you see that not everybody accepts this explanation.

Anyway, the plan is to map Europa first before any mission to send a lander, so that would answer the question. However, even if Europa does not have these ice spikes, it could still be very dangerous terrain. That said, NASA funded some neat technology work called ALHAT that allows a lander to detect the terrain and avoid dangerous obstacles. No landers have really done that before. If they continue work on ALHAT, it would be very useful for a lander mission.

I always sigh when people start talking about submarines on Europa. That is probably a century or more away. Just landing on Europa will be difficult.

Offline spectre9

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #94 on: 03/22/2013 10:10 pm »
Speculation is all we're left with.

Mars has been mapped in high resolution and is being bombarded by probes yet nobody has a clue what the surface of Europa really looks like.

I hope that all that is stopping a mapping mission being funded is the plutonium.

Offline baldusi

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #95 on: 03/22/2013 11:41 pm »
Ouch! What sort of instrument would they need to fly there to get that sort of resolution? Were they planning on a retroburn just before the land? That would melt almost anything. Would leave a big hole to land, too.

If you read the article all the way through, you see that not everybody accepts this explanation.

Anyway, the plan is to map Europa first before any mission to send a lander, so that would answer the question. However, even if Europa does not have these ice spikes, it could still be very dangerous terrain. That said, NASA funded some neat technology work called ALHAT that allows a lander to detect the terrain and avoid dangerous obstacles. No landers have really done that before. If they continue work on ALHAT, it would be very useful for a lander mission.

I always sigh when people start talking about submarines on Europa. That is probably a century or more away. Just landing on Europa will be difficult.
I worked in the Andes and thus have seen the penitentes. I that does makes me assume they are there. But I've never talked about submarines. Rather that a lander would make a mess at retroburn, which probably would contaminate any samples.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #96 on: 03/23/2013 01:02 am »
I hope that all that is stopping a mapping mission being funded is the plutonium.

No. It's money.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #97 on: 03/23/2013 01:04 am »
I worked in the Andes and thus have seen the penitentes. I that does makes me assume they are there. But I've never talked about submarines. Rather that a lander would make a mess at retroburn, which probably would contaminate any samples.

I talked to a well-known Titan scientist who saw this guy's talk about the penitentes at LPSC. He called it "unconvincing."

You're right that there may be a problem with a lander contaminating the site. The solution would be some kind of sampling arm. Perhaps a small rover, although that would be really difficult. Any Europa lander mission would have to possess a lot of autonomous capability.
« Last Edit: 03/23/2013 01:04 am by Blackstar »

Offline spectre9

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #98 on: 03/23/2013 02:46 am »
I hope that all that is stopping a mapping mission being funded is the plutonium.

No. It's money.

A little politics but only for reference.

Quote
Provided, That $75,000,000  6
shall be for pre-formulation and/or formulation activities  7
for a mission that meets the science goals outlined for the  8
Jupiter Europa mission in the most recent planetary  9
science decadal survey

What about this? What's that for?

I thought Europa missions have already been studied over and over...  ???

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Proposed Europa Missions
« Reply #99 on: 03/23/2013 03:15 am »
A little politics but only for reference.

Quote
Provided, That $75,000,000  6
shall be for pre-formulation and/or formulation activities  7
for a mission that meets the science goals outlined for the  8
Jupiter Europa mission in the most recent planetary  9
science decadal survey

What about this? What's that for?

I thought Europa missions have already been studied over and over...  ???

I don't know, but if I had to guess, that's an earmark for JPL. That's to throw them some more technology development money. They have already gotten a lot of money over the years (over $400 million starting around 2002 for JIMO tech development). Yes, Europa has been studied over and over. My guess is that the money will go for radiation hardened electronics research, and JPL overhead. JPL always has overhead.

 

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