Author Topic: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018  (Read 260971 times)

Offline MATTBLAK

  • Elite Veteran & 'J.A.F.A'
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3801
  • 'Space Cadets' Let us; UNITE!! (crickets chirping)
  • New Zealand
  • Liked: 738
  • Likes Given: 1393
Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1220 on: 11/14/2017 10:59 AM »
In February, SpaceX announced that they would be flying two paying tourists around the Moon in 2018 (see also Wikipedia).

I can't find it now, but I'm sure I read at the time that this the two participants would begin training around the end of this year (2017).

Since the original announcement, I haven't seen anything at all.  Chirping crickets, all quiet on the space front.

But the community here is more in touch with space goings-on than anywhere else... any signs of life for this mission?  Any chance it's still on target for launch a year from now?

SpaceX stated that the mission could fly as early as 2018. More specifically SpaceX noted a 2018 -2020 timeframe. Which means that the 2018 date was very much a NET: No Earlier Then. Which, in the case of SpaceX, automatically translates into: Probably Later Then.

Also, this circumlunar mission will not fly until Crew Dragon has proven itself on both its demo missions and at least one operational mission. Given the current delays in CCP it is fairly safe to guesstimate that the circumlunar mission will not occur before 2019.

Also: FH needs to be fully operational. That requires several launches.
Falcon Heavy; yes, three or four launches at minimum.
"Those who can't, Blog".   'Space Cadets' of the World - Let us UNITE!! (crickets chirping)

Offline Star One

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8173
  • UK
  • Liked: 1321
  • Likes Given: 168
Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1221 on: 11/14/2017 11:55 AM »
With all the things that have to go right first and be tested out 2018 has always seem a rather ludicrous timeframe.

Online speedevil

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 396
  • Fife
  • Liked: 185
  • Likes Given: 166
Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1222 on: 11/14/2017 12:04 PM »
With all the things that have to go right first and be tested out 2018 has always seem a rather ludicrous timeframe.

And clearly, if Musk is involved, Ludicrous Speed is impossible.

Offline Negan

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 225
  • Southwest
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 191
Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1223 on: 11/14/2017 03:55 PM »
I'm wondering how the cancellation of propulsive landings will play into this. I would have guessed a used Dragon would have been planned, but now that will require an even more expensive refurbishment. This along with the possibility of having to launch a demo mission of FH with Dragon before a crewed flight is allowed could add considerably cost. How long before SpaceX decides the mission is just too costly and pulls the plug?
« Last Edit: 11/14/2017 03:56 PM by Negan »

Offline Zed_Noir

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2213
  • Canada
  • Liked: 282
  • Likes Given: 444
Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1224 on: 11/14/2017 03:58 PM »
Apollo 12 flew through Earthís shadow back in 1969, and recorded the event on film. Been there, done that!

But not in 3D 8K video.  :P

Online Johnnyhinbos

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 876
  • Boston, MA
  • Liked: 852
  • Likes Given: 132
Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1225 on: 11/14/2017 04:38 PM »
Apollo 12 flew through Earthís shadow back in 1969, and recorded the event on film. Been there, done that!
Not for the majority of the world's population - not even for the majority of Americans alive today. Most people alive right now were not alive for any humans traveling farther than LEO. It's really sad - even depressing. To think we haven't ventured more than a few hundred miles off our surface for over a half a century is astounding, but I'm definitely excited for seeing that rectified soon...
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

Offline cppetrie

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 395
  • Liked: 216
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1226 on: 11/14/2017 04:51 PM »
I'm wondering how the cancellation of propulsive landings will play into this. I would have guessed a used Dragon would have been planned, but now that will require an even more expensive refurbishment. This along with the possibility of having to launch a demo mission of FH with Dragon before a crewed flight is allowed could add considerably cost. How long before SpaceX decides the mission is just too costly and pulls the plug?
Allowed by whom?

Online Herb Schaltegger

Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1227 on: 11/14/2017 05:37 PM »
I'm wondering how the cancellation of propulsive landings will play into this. I would have guessed a used Dragon would have been planned, but now that will require an even more expensive refurbishment. This along with the possibility of having to launch a demo mission of FH with Dragon before a crewed flight is allowed could add considerably cost. How long before SpaceX decides the mission is just too costly and pulls the plug?
Allowed by whom?
Presumably, the poster meant SpaceX. Itís worth noting as well, however, that the FAA will have to issue a launch license, so they have no small say in the matter.
Ad astra per aspirin ...

Offline cppetrie

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 395
  • Liked: 216
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1228 on: 11/14/2017 05:45 PM »
I'm wondering how the cancellation of propulsive landings will play into this. I would have guessed a used Dragon would have been planned, but now that will require an even more expensive refurbishment. This along with the possibility of having to launch a demo mission of FH with Dragon before a crewed flight is allowed could add considerably cost. How long before SpaceX decides the mission is just too costly and pulls the plug?
Allowed by whom?
Presumably, the poster meant SpaceX. Itís worth noting as well, however, that the FAA will have to issue a launch license, so they have no small say in the matter.
The FAAís role AIUI is to guard the publicís safety. This isnít a regularly scheduled transport service so they arenít going to get involved with what two informed people want to risk their lives doing. Unless this launch poses some risk to the public beyond what any other launch of FH does, the FAA wonít be a hurdle. NASA doesnít need to man-rate it because their astros arenít flying on it. SpaceX might want to fly FH with Dragon to demonstrate it works, but they wouldnít have to. To me the post implied an outside entity needed to approve the launch/mission. AIUI that isnít the case. I could easily be wrong though.

Offline Negan

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 225
  • Southwest
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 191
Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1229 on: 11/14/2017 06:14 PM »
I'm wondering how the cancellation of propulsive landings will play into this. I would have guessed a used Dragon would have been planned, but now that will require an even more expensive refurbishment. This along with the possibility of having to launch a demo mission of FH with Dragon before a crewed flight is allowed could add considerably cost. How long before SpaceX decides the mission is just too costly and pulls the plug?
Allowed by whom?
Presumably, the poster meant SpaceX. Itís worth noting as well, however, that the FAA will have to issue a launch license, so they have no small say in the matter.
The FAAís role AIUI is to guard the publicís safety. This isnít a regularly scheduled transport service so they arenít going to get involved with what two informed people want to risk their lives doing. Unless this launch poses some risk to the public beyond what any other launch of FH does, the FAA wonít be a hurdle. NASA doesnít need to man-rate it because their astros arenít flying on it. SpaceX might want to fly FH with Dragon to demonstrate it works, but they wouldnít have to. To me the post implied an outside entity needed to approve the launch/mission. AIUI that isnít the case. I could easily be wrong though.

If the FAA views this flight like any other that would be great, but several respected posters indicated this would not be the case and insisted a demo flight with Dragon would need to happen. I asked about the extra cost and received some pretty smug answers with no real reasoning of why SpaceX would have to eat the cost.

Edit: I think your right cppetrie. Probably just some concern trolling by those posters.
« Last Edit: 11/14/2017 10:46 PM by Negan »

Offline Zed_Noir

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2213
  • Canada
  • Liked: 282
  • Likes Given: 444
Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1230 on: 11/14/2017 06:28 PM »
I'm wondering how the cancellation of propulsive landings will play into this. I would have guessed a used Dragon would have been planned, but now that will require an even more expensive refurbishment. This along with the possibility of having to launch a demo mission of FH with Dragon before a crewed flight is allowed could add considerably cost. How long before SpaceX decides the mission is just too costly and pulls the plug?
Allowed by whom?
Presumably, the poster meant SpaceX. Itís worth noting as well, however, that the FAA will have to issue a launch license, so they have no small say in the matter.
The FAAís role AIUI is to guard the publicís safety. This isnít a regularly scheduled transport service so they arenít going to get involved with what two informed people want to risk their lives doing. Unless this launch poses some risk to the public beyond what any other launch of FH does, the FAA wonít be a hurdle. NASA doesnít need to man-rate it because their astros arenít flying on it. SpaceX might want to fly FH with Dragon to demonstrate it works, but they wouldnít have to. To me the post implied an outside entity needed to approve the launch/mission. AIUI that isnít the case. I could easily be wrong though.

:)
Well there is the spouses and significant others of the aspiring CircumLunar travelers.
:)

Offline QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8187
  • Australia
  • Liked: 2953
  • Likes Given: 710
Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1231 on: 11/14/2017 09:04 PM »
At this point in time I almost feel like Falcon Heavy will be ready before Dragon 2.
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline envy887

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2710
  • Liked: 1248
  • Likes Given: 779
Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1232 on: 11/14/2017 09:06 PM »
At this point in time I almost feel like Falcon Heavy will be ready before Dragon 2.

I don't see how it wouldn't be. FH has 3 flights scheduled before the D2 demo.

Offline QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8187
  • Australia
  • Liked: 2953
  • Likes Given: 710
Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1233 on: 11/14/2017 09:08 PM »
I don't see how it wouldn't be. FH has 3 flights scheduled before the D2 demo.

... and for once it seems like they might actually get one of those done.

Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Online Herb Schaltegger

Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1234 on: 11/14/2017 11:23 PM »
I'm wondering how the cancellation of propulsive landings will play into this. I would have guessed a used Dragon would have been planned, but now that will require an even more expensive refurbishment. This along with the possibility of having to launch a demo mission of FH with Dragon before a crewed flight is allowed could add considerably cost. How long before SpaceX decides the mission is just too costly and pulls the plug?
Allowed by whom?
Presumably, the poster meant SpaceX. It’s worth noting as well, however, that the FAA will have to issue a launch license, so they have no small say in the matter.
The FAA’s role AIUI is to guard the public’s safety. This isn’t a regularly scheduled transport service so they aren’t going to get involved with what two informed people want to risk their lives doing. Unless this launch poses some risk to the public beyond what any other launch of FH does, the FAA won’t be a hurdle. NASA doesn’t need to man-rate it because their astros aren’t flying on it. SpaceX might want to fly FH with Dragon to demonstrate it works, but they wouldn’t have to. To me the post implied an outside entity needed to approve the launch/mission. AIUI that isn’t the case. I could easily be wrong though.

If the FAA views this flight like any other that would be great, but several respected posters indicated this would not be the case and insisted a demo flight with Dragon would need to happen. I asked about the extra cost and received some pretty smug answers with no real reasoning of why SpaceX would have to eat the cost.

Edit: I think your right cppetrie. Probably just some concern trolling by those posters.

Not concern-trolling. Pointing out actual, binding federal regulations for space launches from U.S. territory by U.S. companies, which does (ahem) cover human commercial spaceflight (with both "crew" and "space flight participants.").

https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=1facab8f25aeaa211c978dda645b6cc2&mc=true&tpl=/ecfrbrowse/Title14/14cfr460_main_02.tpl

Note as well that these sections are not aimed particularly at the public at large, but at those folks actually riding the rocket. ;)
Ad astra per aspirin ...

Offline QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8187
  • Australia
  • Liked: 2953
  • Likes Given: 710
Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1235 on: 11/14/2017 11:27 PM »
ß460.17   Verification program.

An operator must successfully verify the integrated performance of a vehicle's hardware and any software in an operational flight environment before allowing any space flight participant on board during a flight. Verification must include flight testing.


Seems relevant. I imagine most people would interpret that to mean Dragon 2 has to fly on Falcon Heavy, and possibly even into cis-lunar space, before any spaceflight participant is allowed to make the flight.
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline cppetrie

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 395
  • Liked: 216
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1236 on: 11/14/2017 11:31 PM »
Curious how NASA was considering putting people on the first SLS flight that quite clearly would not have been verified beforehand with a test flight. I guess the government is exempt from following its own rules.

Offline QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8187
  • Australia
  • Liked: 2953
  • Likes Given: 710
Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1237 on: 11/14/2017 11:34 PM »
Curious how NASA was considering putting people on the first SLS flight that quite clearly would not have been verified beforehand with a test flight. I guess the government is exempt from following its own rules.

Of course.

Insight or something...
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline cppetrie

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 395
  • Liked: 216
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1238 on: 11/14/2017 11:40 PM »
Actually, upon reading the document further, the verification section applies to flights with crew (Part A). Part B applies to flight with ďSpace Flight ParticipantsĒ. There is no such verification section present, only a section on informing the participant(s) of the material risks involved in launch and landing. As this flight would have no crew (automated flight control) all parties onboard would be participants. Itís a close reading of the regulation but appears permitted.

Online Herb Schaltegger

Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1239 on: 11/14/2017 11:58 PM »
Actually, upon reading the document further, the verification section applies to flights with crew (Part A). Part B applies to flight with “Space Flight Participants”. There is no such verification section present, only a section on informing the participant(s) of the material risks involved in launch and landing. As this flight would have no crew (automated flight control) all parties onboard would be participants. It’s a close reading of the regulation but appears permitted.

That is the "out" that was given with an eye towards both automated tourist-y flights as well as what to do with paying passengers on otherwise-crewed missions (e.g., the puking cargo for Virgin Galactic and BO suborbital hops).

However, the key here is what constitutes both "informed consent" and "material risks." Informed consent is one of those things that seems pretty straightforward to engineers and analytic types, but which is a lot more complicated in practice. Are all those rote warnings in drug commercials on TV enough warning to elicit "informed consent" or must a doctor still spend 30 minutes with you going over the real-world risks he may or may not have seen in his own practice from use of that drug? Is the form you sign before going into surgery enough information to give consent when you don't know ahead of time that the doc has settled a dozen medical malpractice claims in the last couple years? Now extrapolate the same *concept* (not details) to a brand new field of commercial endeavor ...

Same goes for materiality of risks. Exploding rockets is an obvious, material risk. But what about a statistical risks of a solar flare/CME, or ECLSS failures? Is some small-but-estimable risk "material" enough to require the spaceflight provider to disclose it to the participant? And if so, in what form must that disclosure be made? (See the first point above). Are several pages of fine print enough or do participants have to have detailed personal discussions with representatives of the provider?

For some people, all of these concepts are old-hat and obvious; for others, they less so. But these are the kinds of real-world details that will get hammered out in practice over the coming years.
Ad astra per aspirin ...

Tags: