Author Topic: LIVE: Delta IV-M+(5,2) - NROL-47 - Vandenberg - January 12, 2018  (Read 135262 times)

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 48174
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 81684
  • Likes Given: 36941
Re: Delta IV-M+(5,2) - NROL-47 Jan 10, 2018 -VAFB SLC-6
« Reply #40 on: 01/09/2018 07:03 am »
Weather is unfortunately only 40% GO:

Quote
T-0 Forecast: A major winter system will move through the central coast in the days leading up to the launch window. The heavy rainfall and convective impacts from the system will start Monday afternoon and extend through late Tuesday evening with a few lingering showers until midnight. On Tuesday, the range will see winds out of the south-southeast at 25-30 kts, shifting over night as the center passes to out of the north-northwest at 23-28 kts. Throughout the count Wednesday to include during propellant load, the winds will remain elevated and out of the north, slowly decreasing to between 15 – 20 gusting to 25 knots and temperatures between 54F and 59F at T-0. Max upper level winds will be out of the northwest at 80 knots from 34,000 to 36,000 feet. The current space weather index is at standard background levels. Overall POV is 60% with Ground Winds being the only constraint of concern.
Overall probability of violating weather constraints: 60%
Areas of concern: Ground Winds

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11186
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Sometimes it feels like Trantor in the time of Hari Seldon
  • Liked: 7405
  • Likes Given: 72501
Re: Delta IV-M+(5,2) - NROL-47 Jan 10, 2018 -VAFB SLC-6
« Reply #41 on: 01/09/2018 07:19 pm »
Can anyone find, link to, and map the NOTAMs/NOTMARs referred to by Marco Langbroek in his Seesat-l post?

EDIT: Marco has these mapped in his blog post What is NROL-47 and in what orbit will it be launched?
***

NROL-47 search elset and identity notes an interesting change in this launch compared to those of the 4 satellites previous deduced as Topaz/FIA Radar radar reconnaissance satellites:
Quote
The launch hazard areas and Upper Stage deorbit hazard area from the Broadcast Warnings point to an unusual orbital inclination: 108.6 degrees.
(Topaz 1-4 were directly launched--no dog-leg maneuver--into orbits of inclination 123.0 degrees.)

And:
Quote
From what appears to be the Upper Stage de-orbit hazard area near Antarctica and the time it opens (23:23 UT) as well as its shape, an orbital altitude near 1500 km is indicated. Previous FIA are in 1100 km orbits.

Dr. Langbroek concludes:
Quote
It could be some other new radar (the retrograde orbit suggests it is a radar satellite).

My question: Could it be a Topaz satellite that will operate in a somewhat different manner, as a radar reconnaissance satellite, in a somewhat-different orbital regime?  EDIT ADD: Rather than a new satellite/system?  EDIT-2 ADD: In doing so, "Topaz 5" would complement the operation of the rest of the Topaz constellation.

Re: visibility
Quote
South Africa might have visibility on the first pass near 21:38 UT and the second pass near 23:30 UT.

This is followed by an comment from Allen Thomson http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Jan-2018/0081.html :
Quote
This is interestingly close to a retrograde version of the Tselina 2 71 degree prograde orbits, which seem to exploit a 14th order resonance(*) to inhibit decay. Those with the resources to do so might want to keep an eye on this satellite and model its orbit to see if it does anything similar.

(*) Mike McCants has called this "longitude surfing", which is both amusing and accurate. :-)
« Last Edit: 01/10/2018 02:13 am by zubenelgenubi »
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.) My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!" Yes, there are God-given rights. Do you wish to gainsay the Declaration of Independence?

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 48174
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 81684
  • Likes Given: 36941
Re: Delta IV-M+(5,2) - NROL-47 Jan 10, 2018 -VAFB SLC-6
« Reply #42 on: 01/09/2018 07:52 pm »
Weather forecast has worsened, now only 30% GO:

Quote
T-0 Forecast: A major winter system will continue to transition through the central coast today, with a few lingering showers until the early evening hours. On Tuesday, the range will see winds out of the south-southeast at 25-30 kts, shifting over night as the low pressure center passes to out of the north-northwest at 23-28 kts. Throughout the count Wednesday to include during propellant load, the winds will remain elevated and out of the north, slowly decreasing to between 15 – 20 gusting to 25 knots and temperatures between 54F and 59F at T-0. Through the four hour window, however, the winds will increase slightly with support from the sea breeze to 18 – 22 gusting to 28 knots out of the north-northwest. Max upper level winds will be out of the northwest at 85 knots from 34,000 to 36,000 feet. The current space weather index is at standard background levels. Overall POV is 70% with Ground Winds being the only constraint of concern.

Overall probability of violating weather constraints: 70%
Areas of concern: Ground Winds

Edit to add:

Complete turn around for next day though, 90% GO:

Quote
24 Hour Scrub Forecast: The high pressure will continue to build in over the range through the end of the week. Morning fog and low stratus will be present early in the count, but will break out by T-0. Low level moisture will be present as a shallow cloud deck hugs the coast. Upper level cirrus will spill over the high as it builds into the region. Temperatures will maintain at 55F to 60F at T-0. Wind at T-0 will be out of the north between 7 – 12 knots gusting to 15 knots. Winds in the upper levels will decrease to 65 knots out of the northwest from 36,000 to 38,000 feet. Overall POV will be 10% with Ground Winds being the constraint of concern.

----------------------------------------------
Clouds    Coverage    Bases    Tops
Stratus    5/8 ths       700         1,300
----------------------------------------------

Visibility:  7 miles
Weather:  None
Wind: 340 - 010 at 15 - 20 G 25 knots
Temperature:  54 - 59° F



Overall probability of violating weather constraints for 24 Hour Delay: 10%
Areas of concern: Ground Winds
« Last Edit: 01/09/2018 07:55 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline Targeteer

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6153
  • near hangar 18
  • Liked: 3364
  • Likes Given: 1139
Re: Delta IV-M+(5,2) - NROL-47 Jan 10, 2018 -VAFB SLC-6
« Reply #43 on: 01/10/2018 02:20 am »
Los Angeles Air Force Base, Home of Space and Missile Systems Center 52 mins ·Facebook

From SMC team partner United Launch Alliance: "The ULA Launch Readiness Review was completed today and everything is progressing toward the ULA Delta IV launch carrying the NROL-47 mission in support of national security. The mission is set to lift off on a Delta IV Medium+ (5, 2) rocket on Wednesday, Jan. 10 from Space Launch Complex-6 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

Today’s L-1 forecast shows a 30 percent chance of favorable weather conditions for launch. The launch time is 1 p.m. Pacific (4 p.m. Eastern)."

Launch Forecast Summary:
Overall probability of violating weather constraints: 70%
Primary concerns: Ground Winds

Overall probability of violating weather constraints for 24 hour delay: 10%
Primary concern: Ground Winds

Launch Broadcast Satellite Coordinates + Webcast
ALL TIMES PACIFIC
UPLINK TEST
TUESDAY, JANUARY 9
12:00 – 12:30 P.M.

LAUNCH
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 10
BARS + TONE – 12:09 P.M.
PROGRAM START – 12:40 P.M.

DIGITAL SATELLITE C-BAND DOWNLINK
HD FORMAT
SATELLITE — SES 3
TRANSPONDER — 12
BAND — C-BAND DIGITAL
ORBITAL POSITION — 103°W
HD BANDWIDTH — 18 MHz (HALF TRANSPONDER)
UPLINK — 6,165.000 H
DOWNLINK — 3,940.000 V
SYMBOL RATE — 13
FEC — Ύ
DATA RATE — 17.9705
DVBS – QPSK
MPEG 2
AUDIO EMBEDDED

Webcast available at www. ulalaunch. com and www. youtube. com/unitedlaunchalliance
« Last Edit: 01/10/2018 02:20 am by Targeteer »
Best quote heard during an inspection, "I was unaware that I was the only one who was aware."

Offline Jdeshetler

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 817
  • Silicon Valley, CA
  • Liked: 3673
  • Likes Given: 3551
Re: Delta IV-M+(5,2) - NROL-47 Jan 10, 2018 -VAFB SLC-6
« Reply #44 on: 01/10/2018 04:11 am »
Shot during our remote cameras setup after the heavy thunderstorm that also caused massive mudslides at Montecito 60 miles away.

« Last Edit: 01/10/2018 04:34 am by Jdeshetler »

Offline catdlr

  • Member
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11187
  • Enthusiast since the Redstones
  • Marina del Rey, California, USA
  • Liked: 8822
  • Likes Given: 7826
Re: Delta IV-M+(5,2) - NROL-47 Jan 10, 2018 -VAFB SLC-6
« Reply #45 on: 01/10/2018 06:17 am »
Delta IV NROL-47 Mission Profile


United Launch Alliance
Published on Jan 9, 2018

A Delta IV Medium+ (5,2) rocket will launch the NROL-47 mission for the National Reconnaissance Office.



Tony De La Rosa, ...I'm no Feline Dealer!! I move mountains.  but I'm better known for "I think it's highly sexual." Japanese to English Translation.

Online Galactic Penguin SST

Moved for live coverage.
Astronomy & spaceflight geek penguin. In a relationship w/ Space Shuttle Discovery. Current Priority: Chasing the Chinese Spaceflight Wonder Egg & A Certain Chinese Mars Rover

Offline William Graham

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4183
  • Liked: 236
  • Likes Given: 109
My question: Could it be a Topaz satellite that will operate in a somewhat different manner, as a radar reconnaissance satellite, in a somewhat-different orbital regime?  EDIT ADD: Rather than a new satellite/system?  EDIT-2 ADD: In doing so, "Topaz 5" would complement the operation of the rest of the Topaz constellation.

I personally suspect this is the case. Onyx used two different inclinations - 57 and 68 degrees. The 123-degree retrograde orbit used for the last four Topaz missions mirrors the 57-degree orbit used by Onyx. 108.6 degrees isn't far away from a mirror of the 68-degree plane (an exact mirror would be 112 degrees so I would not be hugely surprised if the final inclination turns out to be marginally higher than Marco's predictions).

The 68/112-degree orbit would allow the satellite to cover higher latitudes than those in the 57/123-degree orbit. The existing four-satellite constellation probably covers most points of interest, so putting this fifth satellite into a different orbit allows it to see anything that remains that was visible to Onyx and not previously to Topaz.

Online jacqmans

  • Moderator
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 21710
  • Houten, The Netherlands
  • Liked: 8562
  • Likes Given: 320
Delta IV NROL-47 Live Launch Broadcast

« Last Edit: 01/10/2018 10:41 am by Galactic Penguin SST »
Jacques :-)

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11186
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Sometimes it feels like Trantor in the time of Hari Seldon
  • Liked: 7405
  • Likes Given: 72501
<snip>
The 68/112-degree orbit would allow the satellite to cover higher latitudes than those in the 57/123-degree orbit. The existing four-satellite constellation probably covers most points of interest, so putting this fifth satellite into a different orbit allows it to see anything that remains that was visible to Onyx and not previously to Topaz.

Two further, related questions.
One
Lacrosse/Onyx 5 is in a 57 degree inclined orbit.  The US has had no radar reconnaissance satellites in 68 degree inclined orbit since Lacrosse/Onyx 4 was retired.  So, maybe part of this is all about regaining capability?

Two
I wonder how much longer that last Onyx satellite will remain operational and in orbit, and if it may be quietly "retired" after Topaz 5 presumably becomes operational.
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.) My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!" Yes, there are God-given rights. Do you wish to gainsay the Declaration of Independence?

Offline Star One

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13999
  • UK
  • Liked: 3974
  • Likes Given: 220
<snip>
The 68/112-degree orbit would allow the satellite to cover higher latitudes than those in the 57/123-degree orbit. The existing four-satellite constellation probably covers most points of interest, so putting this fifth satellite into a different orbit allows it to see anything that remains that was visible to Onyx and not previously to Topaz.

Two further, related questions.
One
Lacrosse/Onyx 5 is in a 57 degree inclined orbit.  The US has had no radar reconnaissance satellites in 68 degree inclined orbit since Lacrosse/Onyx 4 was retired.  So, maybe part of this is all about regaining capability?

Two
I wonder how much longer that last Onyx satellite will remain operational and in orbit, and if it may be quietly "retired" after Topaz 5 presumably becomes operational.

I expect it to be quietly de-orbited once this payload is confirmed as operational.

Online Chris Bergin

Support NSF via L2 -- Help improve NSF -- Site Rules/Feedback/Updates
**Not a L2 member? Whitelist this forum in your adblocker to support the site and ensure full functionality.**

Offline jebbo

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 940
  • Cambridge, UK
  • Liked: 608
  • Likes Given: 309
Quote
We are currently holding the Mobile Service Tower roll due to weather but proceeding with other launch preps. #NROL47 #DeltaIV

https://twitter.com/ulalaunch/status/951105848050438146

Offline AncientU

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6257
  • Liked: 4164
  • Likes Given: 6078
Quote
The #DeltaIV #NROL47 launch count has just entered a planned hold at T-4 hours to launch. Typically this is a 15-minute hold, but we will be extending it due to weather and wrap up some items in work.

https://twitter.com/ulalaunch/status/951125632452321280
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Online Chris Bergin

Scrub for the day
Support NSF via L2 -- Help improve NSF -- Site Rules/Feedback/Updates
**Not a L2 member? Whitelist this forum in your adblocker to support the site and ensure full functionality.**

Offline gwiz

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 602
  • Cornwall
  • Liked: 143
  • Likes Given: 29

Offline hartspace

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 320
  • Liked: 297
  • Likes Given: 149
Quote
#DeltaIV #NROL47 mission was scrubbed today due to high ground winds. Launch is planned for Thursday, Jan. 11, from Vandenberg Air Force Base. The forecast shows a 90 percent chance of favorable weather conditions for launch. The launch time is 1pmPST; broadcast @ 12:40pmPST.

https://twitter.com/ulalaunch/status/951139545218764805

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11186
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Sometimes it feels like Trantor in the time of Hari Seldon
  • Liked: 7405
  • Likes Given: 72501
Assuming all parties launch as they are currently scheduled, we now have 3 orbital launches in succession:

This one on 11 January, 21:00 UTC,

The 2 satellite Beidou launch on 11 January, at approximately 23:00 UTC,

And the Cartosat-2F et al launch on 12 January, 03:58 UTC.
« Last Edit: 01/10/2018 10:54 pm by zubenelgenubi »
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.) My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!" Yes, there are God-given rights. Do you wish to gainsay the Declaration of Independence?

Offline hartspace

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 320
  • Liked: 297
  • Likes Given: 149
Assuming all parties launch as they are currently scheduled, we now have 3 orbital launches in succession:

This one on 11 January, 21:00 UTC,

The 2 satellite Beidou launch on 11 January, at approximately 23:00 UTC,

And the Cartosat-2F et al launch on 12 January, 03:58 UTC.

Plus, potentially, a Falcon Heavy static fire.  Could be an eventful day.

Offline hartspace

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 320
  • Liked: 297
  • Likes Given: 149
As currently scheduled, this will be the 3rd and last flight of the 5,2 version of the Delta IV Medium+, all 3 from SLC-6.  And, as noted in an earlier post, this is the last scheduled Delta IV Medium series launch from VAFB.

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
0