T-0 Forecast: A major winter system will move through the central coast in the days leading up to the launch window. The heavy rainfall and convective impacts from the system will start Monday afternoon and extend through late Tuesday evening with a few lingering showers until midnight. On Tuesday, the range will see winds out of the south-southeast at 25-30 kts, shifting over night as the center passes to out of the north-northwest at 23-28 kts. Throughout the count Wednesday to include during propellant load, the winds will remain elevated and out of the north, slowly decreasing to between 15 20 gusting to 25 knots and temperatures between 54F and 59F at T-0. Max upper level winds will be out of the northwest at 80 knots from 34,000 to 36,000 feet. The current space weather index is at standard background levels. Overall POV is 60% with Ground Winds being the only constraint of concern.Overall probability of violating weather constraints: 60% Areas of concern: Ground Winds
The launch hazard areas and Upper Stage deorbit hazard area from the Broadcast Warnings point to an unusual orbital inclination: 108.6 degrees.
From what appears to be the Upper Stage de-orbit hazard area near Antarctica and the time it opens (23:23 UT) as well as its shape, an orbital altitude near 1500 km is indicated. Previous FIA are in 1100 km orbits.
It could be some other new radar (the retrograde orbit suggests it is a radar satellite).
South Africa might have visibility on the first pass near 21:38 UT and the second pass near 23:30 UT.
This is interestingly close to a retrograde version of the Tselina 2 71 degree prograde orbits, which seem to exploit a 14th order resonance(*) to inhibit decay. Those with the resources to do so might want to keep an eye on this satellite and model its orbit to see if it does anything similar.(*) Mike McCants has called this "longitude surfing", which is both amusing and accurate. :-)
T-0 Forecast: A major winter system will continue to transition through the central coast today, with a few lingering showers until the early evening hours. On Tuesday, the range will see winds out of the south-southeast at 25-30 kts, shifting over night as the low pressure center passes to out of the north-northwest at 23-28 kts. Throughout the count Wednesday to include during propellant load, the winds will remain elevated and out of the north, slowly decreasing to between 15 20 gusting to 25 knots and temperatures between 54F and 59F at T-0. Through the four hour window, however, the winds will increase slightly with support from the sea breeze to 18 22 gusting to 28 knots out of the north-northwest. Max upper level winds will be out of the northwest at 85 knots from 34,000 to 36,000 feet. The current space weather index is at standard background levels. Overall POV is 70% with Ground Winds being the only constraint of concern.Overall probability of violating weather constraints: 70% Areas of concern: Ground Winds
24 Hour Scrub Forecast: The high pressure will continue to build in over the range through the end of the week. Morning fog and low stratus will be present early in the count, but will break out by T-0. Low level moisture will be present as a shallow cloud deck hugs the coast. Upper level cirrus will spill over the high as it builds into the region. Temperatures will maintain at 55F to 60F at T-0. Wind at T-0 will be out of the north between 7 12 knots gusting to 15 knots. Winds in the upper levels will decrease to 65 knots out of the northwest from 36,000 to 38,000 feet. Overall POV will be 10% with Ground Winds being the constraint of concern.----------------------------------------------Clouds Coverage Bases TopsStratus 5/8 ths 700 1,300----------------------------------------------Visibility: 7 milesWeather: NoneWind: 340 - 010 at 15 - 20 G 25 knotsTemperature: 54 - 59° FOverall probability of violating weather constraints for 24 Hour Delay: 10%Areas of concern: Ground Winds
My question: Could it be a Topaz satellite that will operate in a somewhat different manner, as a radar reconnaissance satellite, in a somewhat-different orbital regime? EDIT ADD: Rather than a new satellite/system? EDIT-2 ADD: In doing so, "Topaz 5" would complement the operation of the rest of the Topaz constellation.
<snip>The 68/112-degree orbit would allow the satellite to cover higher latitudes than those in the 57/123-degree orbit. The existing four-satellite constellation probably covers most points of interest, so putting this fifth satellite into a different orbit allows it to see anything that remains that was visible to Onyx and not previously to Topaz.
Quote from: William Graham on 01/10/2018 07:20 am<snip>The 68/112-degree orbit would allow the satellite to cover higher latitudes than those in the 57/123-degree orbit. The existing four-satellite constellation probably covers most points of interest, so putting this fifth satellite into a different orbit allows it to see anything that remains that was visible to Onyx and not previously to Topaz.Two further, related questions.OneLacrosse/Onyx 5 is in a 57 degree inclined orbit. The US has had no radar reconnaissance satellites in 68 degree inclined orbit since Lacrosse/Onyx 4 was retired. So, maybe part of this is all about regaining capability?TwoI wonder how much longer that last Onyx satellite will remain operational and in orbit, and if it may be quietly "retired" after Topaz 5 presumably becomes operational.
We are currently holding the Mobile Service Tower roll due to weather but proceeding with other launch preps. #NROL47 #DeltaIV
The #DeltaIV #NROL47 launch count has just entered a planned hold at T-4 hours to launch. Typically this is a 15-minute hold, but we will be extending it due to weather and wrap up some items in work.
#DeltaIV #NROL47 mission was scrubbed today due to high ground winds. Launch is planned for Thursday, Jan. 11, from Vandenberg Air Force Base. The forecast shows a 90 percent chance of favorable weather conditions for launch. The launch time is 1pmPST; broadcast @ 12:40pmPST.
Assuming all parties launch as they are currently scheduled, we now have 3 orbital launches in succession:This one on 11 January, 21:00 UTC,The 2 satellite Beidou launch on 11 January, at approximately 23:00 UTC,And the Cartosat-2F et al launch on 12 January, 03:58 UTC.