Poll

Will a formal decision be announced to place a crew on the first flight of Orion/SLS?

Yes -- and the flight will be circumlunar (if not more ambitious)
13 (21%)
Yes -- but the flight will be less ambitious than circumlunar
9 (14.5%)
No
40 (64.5%)

Total Members Voted: 62

Voting closed: 04/13/2017 11:09 AM


Author Topic: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?  (Read 2733 times)

Offline Proponent

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Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« on: 04/06/2017 11:09 AM »
Please note that the question is whether it will become policy to place a crew on EM-1, not whether such a flight will actually occur.  Should a decision to crew EM-1 be announced and later rescinded, it will nevertheless count as a decision to crew.  Similarly, should a decision to crew later be changed to a decision to crew with either a more ambitious or less ambitious trajectory, it will count as originally announced.

The poll will close on the announcement of a decision one way or the other, should such announcement occur before the poll's expiry.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #1 on: 04/06/2017 01:30 PM »
I voted no on the basis that I don't see how they'll justify, from a safety pov, putting a crew on an unflown LV when they don't have to.

Online AncientU

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Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #2 on: 04/06/2017 10:42 PM »
I voted no because I don't think SLS will ever fly with crew.
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Online mme

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Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #3 on: 04/06/2017 10:50 PM »
I voted yes because I think someone [1] will decide to put it in the plan because it sounds impressive [2] but I'm more skeptical about it actually happening [3].

[1] I'm not being coy about who, there are multiple players that could decide it's the appropriate bold move to make a statement about American HSF and the road to BEO.
[2] I'm not judging the actual impressiveness one way or another.
[3] In the end I'm not sure it will fit in with with all the moving pieces of the evolving plan.
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Online savuporo

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Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #4 on: 04/07/2017 02:25 AM »
I voted no because I don't think SLS will ever fly with crew.

ftfy
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline guckyfan

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Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #5 on: 04/07/2017 10:24 AM »
I voted no, expressing a hope. If they do go forward with that plan they lose a lot of credibility with me on crew safety.

Offline Proponent

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Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #6 on: 04/08/2017 03:31 PM »
I'm going for "Yes - circumlunar."  If NASA wants the relatively large budget that the president has offered (a cut of only about 5%, as opposed to much larger cuts for most non-defense discretionary spending), it needs to provide something of political value, and a flight around the moon before the next election could be just the thing.  Safety concerns will be addressed (inadequately, though perhaps accurately, in my view) with "Well, it's safer than STS-1."

Whether the mission actually flies or flies by 2020 is another question, but in the meantime NASA has much to gain by playing the game.
« Last Edit: 04/08/2017 03:33 PM by Proponent »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #7 on: 04/08/2017 05:52 PM »
The thing about STS-1 was that there was no way to do the mission without crew, so it's not a like-for-like comparison.

I do get the arguments about perceived political value and budget concerns, but I expect the detailed assessments to be based on more engineering and proper safety risk analysis. I don't see things being glossed over in this post Challanger and Columbia world.

So if they do come out with a yes recommendation then I must be too naive!
« Last Edit: 04/08/2017 05:52 PM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline Proponent

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Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #8 on: 04/10/2017 09:55 AM »
I agree that STS-1 is not a good reason to put a crew on EM-1.  But no less than Gen. Stafford has already bought into the logic, and I imagine that will be good enough for many.

Offline Proponent

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Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #9 on: 04/20/2017 08:12 PM »
Marcia Smith reports that NASA's feasibility study of crewing EM-1 has been completed.

Offline Star One

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Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #10 on: 04/20/2017 08:16 PM »
Marcia Smith reports that NASA's feasibility study of crewing EM-1 has been completed.

Thanks for that. The budget news is mildly depressing but OT for this thread.

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #11 on: 04/30/2017 04:17 PM »
I say no as both Orion and SLS should be tested before putting a crew on them beyond LEO and rushing a crewed flight may actually delay the program.

An all up uncrewed flight would answer more questions which would actually help the timeline.

For example Apollo 6 exposed a lot of serious problems before the first crewed flight of the Saturn V.
« Last Edit: 04/30/2017 04:28 PM by Patchouli »

Offline Proponent

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Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #12 on: 05/12/2017 07:24 PM »
The wisdom of crowds wins again!

I'm happy to have been wrong.

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