Poll

What development steps do you see going forward from F9R to BFR for SpaceX after Falcon Heavy with core recovery?

Raptor upper stage for FH, Recoverable Raptor upper stage, 5 meter or greater diameter Raptor based NFR using the Raptor upper stage, BFS (tested with upgraded NFR), finally BFR/BFS
12 (21.8%)
FH with crossfeed, BFR/BFS
3 (5.5%)
F9/FH with kerolox upper stage recovery, FH with crossfeed, BFR
0 (0%)
F9 with Raptor upper stage, FH with Raptor upper stage, Raptor upper stage recovery, 5 meter or greater diameter Raptor based NFR using the Raptor upper stage, BFS mated to NFR or NFR upgrage, BFR
16 (29.1%)
FH with crossfeed, F9/FH kerolox upper stage recovery, Raptor upper stage with recovery, BFR/BFS
1 (1.8%)
FH with crossfeed, F9/FH kerolox upper stage recovery, BFR/BFS
1 (1.8%)
FH with crossfeed, F9/FH kerolox upper stage recovery, Raptor upper stage with recovery, 5 meter or greater diameter Raptor based NFR using the Raptor upper stage, BFR/BFS
0 (0%)
SpaceX will develop some of these but will never go as far as BFR/BFS
7 (12.7%)
SpaceX will develop in a widely (not necessarily wildly) different way than presented in the above options
15 (27.3%)

Total Members Voted: 55

Voting closed: 05/04/2016 08:02 pm


Author Topic: The steps from FH to BFR  (Read 9538 times)

Offline nadreck

The steps from FH to BFR
« on: 04/20/2016 08:02 pm »
So after the discussion I have seen on a couple of threads the last couple of days around the progression of FH development I thought I would make this poll.  While I haven't listed all the combinations and permutations of the steps they could take, I picked the main ones and would encourage anyone to answer with the closest in steps and order of steps from the list above, however if none are at all the way you feel things will go please choose one of the two alternate choices and in all cases if you want to explain your choice or how your visualization of things varies from the closest choice please feel free to reply while keeping this LarLike benedictum in mind: "Be excellent to one another".
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline Lar

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Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #1 on: 04/20/2016 08:20 pm »
interesting poll but I predict no matter how many options you added, the truth will be stranger. :)

I picked option 4: 
F9 with Raptor upper stage, FH with Raptor upper stage, Raptor upper stage recovery, 5 meter or greater diameter Raptor based NFR using the Raptor upper stage, BFS mated to NFR or NFR upgrage, BFR

because I think that's fairly close.  But they may go for recovery right away, and I forget why NFR is compelling as an intermediate step. (also I forgot what it stands for, is it a mini MCT??)

Edit: My REAL vote is option 4 sans NFR as many folk below are saying
« Last Edit: 04/23/2016 11:24 pm by Lar »
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Offline nadreck

Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #2 on: 04/20/2016 08:22 pm »
interesting poll but I predict no matter how many options you added, the truth will be stranger. :)

I picked option 4: 
F9 with Raptor upper stage, FH with Raptor upper stage, Raptor upper stage recovery, 5 meter or greater diameter Raptor based NFR using the Raptor upper stage, BFS mated to NFR or NFR upgrage, BFR

because I think that's fairly close.  But they may go for recovery right away, and I forget why NFR is compelling as an intermediate step. (also I forgot what it stands for, is it a mini MCT??)

NFR => Next F'ing Rocket  What we saw on the drawing boards years ago between FH and XX
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline spacenut

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Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #3 on: 04/20/2016 08:44 pm »
If the Raptor upper stage is developed like Option 4, which I also picked, then cross feed may never be needed before BFR is developed. 

Offline clongton

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Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #4 on: 04/20/2016 08:49 pm »
I picked #4. Cross-feed is a dead issue for the foreseeable future. There are less expensive ways for SpaceX to achieve the benefits of cross-feed without developing what would ultimately be a short-lived capability.
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Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #5 on: 04/20/2016 08:50 pm »
No intermediate steps, straight to BFR/BFS. Raptor upper stage in parallel, which will probably be 5 m and recoverable/in-space-reusable.

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #6 on: 04/20/2016 09:15 pm »
No intermediate steps, unless the Air Force springs for a Raptor 5m reusable upper stage.

Offline symbios

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Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #7 on: 04/20/2016 10:21 pm »
I agree with MikeAtkins, Since NRF is in all the options that is relevant to this senario, I did not vote.
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Offline GreenShrike

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Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #8 on: 04/21/2016 07:36 pm »
I chose option four, but I'm with the guys above -- ~5m Raptor upper stage for F9/FH, but then skip the NFR and build the BFR.

I think a Raptor upper will buy them experience with methalox stage design and operation, as well as experience with building and flying Raptor engines. An NFR booster won't add much to that knowledge base, or add much in terms of launch capability either, as a Falcon Heavy-Raptor is already SLS territory. I don't think any incremental increase in capability is warranted; F9-raptor and FH-Raptor will suffice for practically anything commercial as well as SpaceX's own small/medium exploratory Mars missions, especially when the Raptor stage is refueled in orbit before heading to Mars. Anything larger (read: MCTs) will need a full BFR.

As they won't need the experience an NFR would give them, nor the capability, it would only be a distraction, and a drain on resources.

I think an NFR would only be pursued if eventually it was economically more viable to retire the kerolox boosters, perhaps if flight costs get down to where the additional cost of integrating the three cores of a FH is a significant part of the total, and a single core NFR would thus be cheaper to operate, perhaps to better compete with a future reusable single-stick VBB in FH's range. But by the time we're talking about, SpaceX will have a fleet of Falcon boosters with a lot of life left in them that are cheap to fly regardless, and very proven.

As such, if it comes, I think NFR would likely come after BFR, to cover those missions where BFR is too FB. SpaceX would stop production on Falcon cores, switch the factory over to 5m NFR cores while flying out the Falcon fleet's life over the next few years, age out older Falcon cores while integrating new NFRs into the fleet, and then put the remaining Falcon cores out to pasture.

To keep the rocket cows company, maybe.
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Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #9 on: 04/23/2016 11:16 pm »
We need an option 4 sans NFR. It makes a lot of sense to a lot of people.
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Offline nadreck

Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #10 on: 04/24/2016 01:39 am »
We need an option 4 sans NFR. It makes a lot of sense to a lot of people.

Well I am one of those shoot from the hips sort of guy so this poll stands as written (otherwise I delete it and do another with that option) but I have seen that from the comments that there is an obvious segment that thinks there will be a Raptor Upper stage and no NFR.

Thanks though for the feed back everyone, and just consider that #4 no NFR as a write in vote.
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline FishInferno

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Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #11 on: 04/24/2016 03:09 am »
I picked option 5, but I don't think they will go with Kerolox recovery of the second stage, i picked it because I think they will fo Raptor upper stage and then BFR, I don't see them making a NFR because that's a bunch of infrastructure that isn't sized for BFR
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Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #12 on: 04/24/2016 11:02 am »
NFR seems like an unnecessary expense without a mission requirement. I don't believe SpaceX should build entire architectures just as tech demonstrators. Subscale tech demonstrators like grasshopper and dragonfly, sure. Entire finalised vehicles just as a precedent to another vehicle? No. If they have the money to do so, and they will do, they can work through their issues  on the finalised LV. That doesn't necessarily mean BFR and BFS won't be subjected to repetitive upgrades and iterations in just the same way Dragon and Falcon have been subjected to repetitive upgrades and iterations, but the process will be evolutionary, rather than a series of leaps.

All I see NFR doing is pushing the endgame to the right, and probably adding expense to the whole thing whilst doing so making a finalised BFR considerably less likely.
« Last Edit: 04/24/2016 11:03 am by The Amazing Catstronaut »
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Online guckyfan

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Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #13 on: 04/24/2016 12:45 pm »
I voted option 1. I believe they will build a Raptor upper stage. It will be designed for reuse from the beginning. It will be an important learning step for MCT/BFS mostly for reentry but also gaining experience with methane.

I believe they will build a new Raptor first stage to go with it. But not as a learning step towards BFR. I believe they will build it for economic reasons after BFR already flies.

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #14 on: 04/24/2016 04:34 pm »
I voted the last option, I think, that the actual progression will be nothing like what we can imagine, and will shock us all that we didn't see it coming...
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Offline MP99

Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #15 on: 04/25/2016 07:39 am »
ISTM the next target would be upper-stage recovery. This would be of a Raptor based stage.

This imposes a mass penalty, which would push more payloads onto FH. That only becomes practical when recovery / reuse has become more routine and the margins become high enough that payloads can move to FH (with centre core RTLS) without increasing the price.

So... increase margins on reused cores, short term market elasticity does not support reducing prices, so use the profits to do pre-work for larger cost savings in the future when some market elasticity may come along.

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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #16 on: 04/25/2016 08:51 pm »
There needs to be a non-NFR option. Recoverable Raptor upper stage is all that's needed between Falcon Heavy and BFR. Why didn't you include that as an option???
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Offline Paul451

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Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #17 on: 04/29/2016 01:42 am »
There needs to be a non-NFR option. Recoverable Raptor upper stage is all that's needed between Falcon Heavy and BFR.

That's what I was thinking. NFR makes a logical stepping stone for a company in the launch business, but not one for a company in the Mars business. It's what I would do, but not what Musk will do.

Likewise, I doubt that they will bother trying to sort out whatever problems they are having with cross-feed. They'll simply move on to Raptor-US to improve payload, especially if someone else is paying for it, then focus on US-reusability and developing BFR.

So:
- Non-crossfeed FH with Vac-Merlin US, later this year hopefully.
- Then the non-crossfeed FH with an expendable Raptor-US.
- Then working on reusability for that upperstage, using FH as the workhorse. (Same path as F9 recovery, letting customers pay for your reusability test launches.)
- While solving the inevitable issues with US-recovery and reuse, they'll work on BFR.
- BFR will initially fly with the FH-variant of Raptor-US. (Like Merlin, the first versions of Raptor will likely be intentionally underpowered as they work out the kinks.)
- Once BFR is proven reliable and recoverable, I expect the entire F9/FH/Merlin production line to cease. All payloads will fly on BFR.
- Then they'll develop a full size upperstage for BFR, but without the complexity of the intended BFS. (This will be used to develop recovery of such a large US.)
- Then the full MCT kit, however that develops.

Additionally:
- Orbital refuelling of an US. (No idea whether that would occur at the FH/RUS step, not until after BFR/BFS is flying, or somewhere in between.)

Not in this scenario:
- Mini-Raptor.
- FH cross-feed.
- F9/RUS.
- Developing a new Raptor based F9/FH core. As in the original Merlin-2 plan.
- Mini-BFR. Falcon-X, NFR, whatever. Any core-size between F9/FH and BFR.
- Doubly triply so for a Mini-BFR Heavy.

--

Not considered at all:
- Whether there will be any step between Dragon and BFS-crew. It seems logical, but... {shrug}

An integrated pressure-vessel within the FH-scale Raptor-US. Refuelled in orbit, it could send dozen-tonne payloads to the Lunar and especially Martian surface. Tests a bunch of ideas and techniques, and might earn some money from NASA/ESA science missions.

So I see a mini-BFS (unmanned), but not a mini-BFR.

[edit: "NFS", heh.]
« Last Edit: 04/30/2016 07:06 am by Paul451 »

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #18 on: 04/29/2016 02:21 pm »
Any back of the envelope estimates of when a Raptor Upper Stage (RUS) might be ready for actual deployment on a FH? How about estimates of the throw weight ability to LEO/Mars? Musk has said they would use/develop crossfeed for any customer that asked. SpaceX to Red Dragon is a customer ( :D ) would they use crossfeed to maximize early payloads to explore Mars or put satellites in Mars orbit?

Gramps "Earthling by Birth, Martian by the grace of The Elon." ~ "Hate, it has caused a lot of problems in the world, but it has not solved one yet." Maya Angelou ~ Tony Benn: "Hope is the fuel of progress and fear is the prison in which you put yourself."

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: The steps from FH to BFR
« Reply #19 on: 04/29/2016 07:47 pm »
FH is a beast even without crossfeed.  I doubt they will spend the money or effort.

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