Xinhua is announcing that Iran will launch it's first satellite, Omid, next March 20 - Iran to send satellite to space by March 20 .
Quote from: Satori on 01/27/2009 05:28 pmXinhua is announcing that Iran will launch it's first satellite, Omid, next March 20 - Iran to send satellite to space by March 20 .That says by 20 March, so it will probably happen beforehand.
Any independent confirmation orbit was achieved? Any estimated orbital parameters? Is it 2009-04A or was that some other launch?
The Iranian Students News Agency calls the launch vehicleSafir-2; it's not clear if this is represents a different vehicletype from Safir-1, or just a serial number.
So this actually happened, and they aren't talking about of their backsides as per usual for Iran?
Ok, thanks. Let's hope it raises some concerns in right places.
Quote from: Chris Bergin on 02/03/2009 10:49 amOk, thanks. Let's hope it raises some concerns in right places.I don't think we should be concerned with this launch or with the fact that Iran has this kind of capability.
Quote from: Chris Bergin on 02/03/2009 10:36 amSo this actually happened, and they aren't talking about of their backsides as per usual for Iran?Quote from: Chris Bergin on 02/03/2009 10:49 amOk, thanks. Let's hope it raises some concerns in right places.What are you talking about?Analyst
Colleagues, if anybody speaks Farsi: does the news item http://www.irinn.ir/Default.aspx?TabId=56&nid=122987 say about the 25 kg satellite launched to 250x450 km by a two-stage launch vehicle of 22 meters in lenght and 27 tons in weigth?
Video of launch, assembly and tests of the satellite, animation of launch, stage and spacecraft separation: http://www.irinn.ir/FileManager/Download.aspx?path=/Files/1/1387/bahman/15/15 - Akhavan - 01.wmv The link is at the bottom ofhttp://www.irinn.ir/Default.aspx?TabId=15&nid=122954 .
How many countries have put satellites into orbit using a self developed launch vehicle? Let us discount all ESA memberstates but France and UK.
10 - 2008 - IranWho will be next?
Who will be next?
Quote from: Space Lizard on 02/03/2009 02:22 pmWho will be next?You're stuck in 'oldspace' thinking, regarding only governments as space players. SpaceX needs to be put on the list, too, as an independent satellite-launching entity....and didn't Saddamite Iraq try a satellite launch in 1989 or so?
At 7 tons, would this be the lightest SUCCESSFUL ground launched satellite launch vehicle?
Quote from: Danderman on 02/03/2009 09:00 pmAt 7 tons, would this be the lightest SUCCESSFUL ground launched satellite launch vehicle?Most estimates say that it's 26 tons, and derived from Nodong (Scud D) not the original Scud;e.g. diameter 1.3m not 0.9m.
I didn't see any aerodynamic fins on the Safir-Omid stack, although I'm sure the propulsion section is nearly the same.
Quote from: iamlucky13 on 02/04/2009 01:25 amI didn't see any aerodynamic fins on the Safir-Omid stack, although I'm sure the propulsion section is nearly the same.They are there. Look at 0:21 in the video above.
I suppose this will ramp up America's missile defense system research and test budget?
Was it a two stage or three stage launcher? Optical observations may be able to answer this. The implications of the two stage variant are that many public analysts have grossly underestimated the efficiency of Iranian rocketry. That's scary.Let's find out.
More interesting if was a two stage is was it a direct insert or did the second stage restart (not much use for an ICBM, but really important for space activities).
Based upon the locations in Ed Kyle's posting I have used my own software to calculate a launch time of 18:33 UT using the Two-Lines from Space-Track: these estimates are normally plus/minus a minute.
1) Optical observations may be able to answer this. 2) The implications of the two stage variant are that many public analysts have grossly underestimated the efficiency of Iranian rocketry. That's scary.
Quote from: kevin-rf on 02/05/2009 01:35 pmMore interesting if was a two stage is was it a direct insert or did the second stage restart (not much use for an ICBM, but really important for space activities). My estimate based on COLA calculation gives the closest approach of 004A and 004B (which I assume to be the moment of separation) at Feb 02, 18:44 UTC over 17.2 N, 69.2E, some 2500 km from the launch site.
Chris, you said you don't want to discuss politics. Now you are quoting a release from a very "independent" organisation / lobbying firm /whatever. To say this release is biased is an understatement.Analyst
The implications of the two stage variant are that many public analysts have grossly underestimated the efficiency of Iranian rocketry. That's scary.
I understand. We all know space technology - as most technology - can be used in two ways. But I think focussing to much on the potential military use compared to other uses is misleading and overreacting. I don't say you do , just pointing out.Analyst
Quote from: Analyst on 02/05/2009 07:45 pmI understand. We all know space technology - as most technology - can be used in two ways. But I think focussing to much on the potential military use compared to other uses is misleading and overreacting. I don't say you do , just pointing out.AnalystMight be my military side leaking through
If the effort were entirely civil in nature, wouldn't Iran have notified the world's media of the launch date in advance
I would like to see Iran conduct an "open" space program,
What do we know about the second stage of this vehicle? What sort of propellant combination / ISP would it require to direct insert an admittedly small payload? (hypergols?) What sort of technology might they have adapted or might it be an entirely indigenous second stage?P
Another thing to think about, I wonder how different this is from Atlas-Score. An empty rocket putting itself in orbit.
It carries an instrument to measure the spaceenvironment, and a GPS receiver modified for use in the unstabilized(i.e. tumbling) satellite, according to the Iranian Space Agency website isa.ir.
Seeing another nation join the space club is terrific. Knowing that engineers worked late into the night to create a new flying machine makes me, an engineer, happy. At the same time, I believe that the military concerns are a valid part of this story. Just as the U.S.A.'s Jupiter-C was originally developed to test reentry vehicle heat shield technologies years before it was used to launch Explorer I, Safir could serve as an R&D step toward longer range missiles, etc.. If the effort were entirely civil in nature, wouldn't Iran have notified the world's media of the launch date in advance as the U.S. did for its recent $2 billion "top secret" DoD launch - a practice followed by the other space fairing nations? Why are we left to wonder if there are two or three stages, whether there was or was not an earlier orbital attempt, what that possible big new pad is for, and so on? I would like to see Iran conduct an "open" space program, to share the wonder of it all with the rest of the world and to end the suspicions that are posited by other governments. - Ed Kyle
National pride, maybe, but that's a risky move if the people think the money could be better spent.
1) The worry is Iran has more than enough domestic problems to deal with, without spending money developing a service they can buy commercially.2) It kind of begs the question of ulterior motive.3) Maybe they just want spy satellites, and no-one will launch them for them. That's about the most benign motive I can assign them.4) National pride, maybe, but that's a risky move if the people think the money could be better spent.
I know Shahab is based off the Scud-C but the exhaust almost looks like a Kero lox engine vs the hypergolics used in most Scud variants?
The worry is Iran has more than enough domestic problems to deal with, without spending money developing a service they can buy commercially. It kind of begs the question of ulterior motive.
Fuel TM-185 20% Gasoline 80% KeroseneOxidizer AK-27I 27% N2O4 73% HNO3 Iodium Inhibitor
Quote from: kkattula on 02/08/2009 07:29 amThe worry is Iran has more than enough domestic problems to deal with, without spending money developing a service they can buy commercially. It kind of begs the question of ulterior motive.Talk of ulterior motives strikes me as bit misplaced: Iran makes no secret of their pursuit of long range missiles, and their launcher is clearly derived from this effort. It doesn't make sense to say they are using the space effort as cover for a program that is itself publicly boasted about.It seems pretty obvious to me they are extracting additional value from the money they spent on developing missiles (a pattern that dates all the way back to sputnik.) The value includes both propaganda and practical applications like reconnaissance.Re propellant: FAS lists the propellant of the Shabib-3/Nodong/Ghauri family as QuoteFuel TM-185 20% Gasoline 80% KeroseneOxidizer AK-27I 27% N2O4 73% HNO3 Iodium Inhibitor
For deliverability, the scariest suggestion is a few mid-range missiles in the hold of a false-flagged freighter. No return address.
if Iran was able to make the bomb that fits inside a missile, they would use it before testing it. The announcement they have the bomb will be a blinding flash somewhere in Israel.
Quote from: JimO on 02/10/2009 11:29 amFor deliverability, the scariest suggestion is a few mid-range missiles in the hold of a false-flagged freighter. No return address.I don't know, (probably risking the mod button here) but I think if Iran was able to make the bomb that fits inside a missile, they would use it before testing it. The announcement they have the bomb will be a blinding flash somewhere in Israel.One thing to think about is they have the ability to produce U-235, not Plutonium. The US was confident enough in the U-235 gun type design that they didn't actually test the design before using it on Hiroshima. Think about that... At least the Hiroshima design was really heavy, hopefully to heavy for a modified two stage Scud that can reach Israel.
A nuclear weapon is so mindboggingly devastating that this fact's the only thing that's been keeping everyone from using the weapon up to this day.
Quote from: ugordan on 02/10/2009 01:17 pmA nuclear weapon is so mindboggingly devastating that this fact's the only thing that's been keeping everyone from using the weapon up to this day.Except one. But this was before retaliation was possible.
Quote from: Analyst on 02/10/2009 01:40 pmQuote from: ugordan on 02/10/2009 01:17 pmA nuclear weapon is so mindboggingly devastating that this fact's the only thing that's been keeping everyone from using the weapon up to this day.Except one. But this was before retaliation was possible.Well, if we're going to be pedantic, then there were two drops, not one. But you get my point. It's a deterrent, a standoff weapon and a political tool. I agree not even Iranians would be foolish enough to use it.
Even if the Iranians are not so foolish as to use nuclear weapons, down the road a bit someone else will be.
Quote from: Analyst on 02/03/2009 10:54 amQuote from: Chris Bergin on 02/03/2009 10:36 amSo this actually happened, and they aren't talking about of their backsides as per usual for Iran?Quote from: Chris Bergin on 02/03/2009 10:49 amOk, thanks. Let's hope it raises some concerns in right places.What are you talking about?AnalystErrr, it's IRAN!
Quote from: JimO on 02/05/2009 01:19 pmWas it a two stage or three stage launcher? Optical observations may be able to answer this. The implications of the two stage variant are that many public analysts have grossly underestimated the efficiency of Iranian rocketry. That's scary.Let's find out.More interesting if was a two stage is was it a direct insert or did the second stage restart (not much use for an ICBM, but really important for space activities). Most likely the people with the DSP like resources know how many burns, how long each burn was, the question is will they tell the rest of us.
The worry is Iran has more than enough domestic problems to deal with, without spending money developing a service they can buy commercially. It kind of begs the question of ulterior motive.Maybe they just want spy satellites, and no-one will launch them for them. That's about the most benign motive I can assign them.National pride, maybe, but that's a risky move if the people think the money could be better spent.
1) You are wrong. Why do you think the Iranians want to die? 2) Talking about Hiroshima: The only country which used nuclear weapons does not want others to even have these weapons. How do you explain this?But maybe Hiroshima explains the fear when it comes to Iran. Will they act like the US did? No, they won't, if only because of 1). Simple game theory.3) This is OT.Analyst
Quote from: kevin-rf on 02/10/2009 01:00 pmQuote from: JimO on 02/10/2009 11:29 amFor deliverability, the scariest suggestion is a few mid-range missiles in the hold of a false-flagged freighter. No return address.I don't know, (probably risking the mod button here) but I think if Iran was able to make the bomb that fits inside a missile, they would use it before testing it. The announcement they have the bomb will be a blinding flash somewhere in Israel.One thing to think about is they have the ability to produce U-235, not Plutonium. The US was confident enough in the U-235 gun type design that they didn't actually test the design before using it on Hiroshima. Think about that... At least the Hiroshima design was really heavy, hopefully to heavy for a modified two stage Scud that can reach Israel.Three things:1) You are wrong. Why do you think the Iranians want to die? 2) Talking about Hiroshima: The only country which used nuclear weapons does not want others to even have these weapons. How do you explain this?But maybe Hiroshima explains the fear when it comes to Iran. Will they act like the US did? No, they won't, if only because of 1). Simple game theory.3) This is OT.Analyst
Quote from: Analyst on 02/10/2009 01:39 pmQuote from: kevin-rf on 02/10/2009 01:00 pmQuote from: JimO on 02/10/2009 11:29 amFor deliverability, the scariest suggestion is a few mid-range missiles in the hold of a false-flagged freighter. No return address.I don't know, (probably risking the mod button here) but I think if Iran was able to make the bomb that fits inside a missile, they would use it before testing it. The announcement they have the bomb will be a blinding flash somewhere in Israel.One thing to think about is they have the ability to produce U-235, not Plutonium. The US was confident enough in the U-235 gun type design that they didn't actually test the design before using it on Hiroshima. Think about that... At least the Hiroshima design was really heavy, hopefully to heavy for a modified two stage Scud that can reach Israel.Three things:1) You are wrong. Why do you think the Iranians want to die? 2) Talking about Hiroshima: The only country which used nuclear weapons does not want others to even have these weapons. How do you explain this?But maybe Hiroshima explains the fear when it comes to Iran. Will they act like the US did? No, they won't, if only because of 1). Simple game theory.3) This is OT.AnalystAnalyst,1) Yes the Iranians don't want to die, but yet support Hezbollah that has waged war on Israel and Western countries for decades. Clearly they're not afraid of a fight and if you knew more about what governed their state and Shirah law then you would understand. I've lived in the Middle East and I can tell you most of the countries there are extremely afraid of both Iran and Hezbollah.2) You are completely distorting facts here Analyst and I expect more from you. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were nuked for two reasons; 1 Japan was unwilling to surrender and they still has millions of soldiers willing to die, the death toll of invading mainland Japan would have been catastrophic. This was made clear when even after the Emperor of Japan decided to surrender, high level Japanese generals were trying to cover it up and prevent him from delivering the message to the country and the Americans so they could continue their war. Second the Russians were already moving in to invade Japan, if they were able to reach mainland Japan the world would have had it's second Berlin wall, this time much larger. Dropping the bomb was the best thing that could have happened to Japan at the end of the war, even with all the death involved and most Japanese agree with this sentiment.3) The fear with Iran and it seems you are completely ignoring is the connections with Hezbollah. Where do you think all the rockets come from that Hezbollah fires 40 times a day into southern Israel? If Iran produces nuclear material it will no doubt end up in the hands of Hezbollah, and that's damm freighting. Because even if Iran didn't want Hezbollah to detonate a nuclear bomb in Israel, Hezbollah is still capable of acting on it's own using Jihad as it's guiding light.
As tested someone needs to convince me that this was not a test of an IRBM without a payload. Use of LOX, or a third stage, or a two burn second stage profile would convince me... All of those would say tailored for use as an LV and not an IRBM, but to date that is not the case.
A much more significant Iranian missile development is that nation's apparent testing of long-range, staged solid fuel missile technology. A solid fuel missile will instantly out-mode all of the Shahab-based technology. - Ed Kyle
Quote from: edkyle99 on 02/16/2009 04:00 pmA much more significant Iranian missile development is that nation's apparent testing of long-range, staged solid fuel missile technology. A solid fuel missile will instantly out-mode all of the Shahab-based technology. - Ed KyleThe press is full of claims that they are doing that, but have they actually tested an IRBM/ICBM or even scud sized solid yet?
So why didn't they use GLONASS?I think there will always be two groups of though on this flight. One that it is an IRBM in an LV's clothing and the other that wish to believe there is nothing sinister and they want to go to the stars and every rocket into Isreal contains a dozen roses. Short of an IRBM landing in Isreal with a blinding flash or Iran getting rational and tossing all the centrifuges into the persian gulf this arguement will go on forever.As tested someone needs to convince me that this was not a test of an IRBM without a payload. Use of LOX, or a third stage, or a two burn second stage profile would convince me... All of those would say tailored for use as an LV and not an IRBM, but to date that is not the case.
I think there will always be two groups of though on this flight. One that it is an IRBM in an LV's clothing and the other that wish to believe there is nothing sinister and they want to go to the stars and every rocket into Isreal contains a dozen roses.
Omid was expected to re-enter at about 04:00 GMT this morning. Has anything been confirmed yet?