Author Topic: First Satellite launch by Iran  (Read 73043 times)

Online Satori

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First Satellite launch by Iran
« on: 01/27/2009 05:28 pm »
Xinhua is announcing that Iran will launch it's first satellite, Omid, next March 20 - Iran to send satellite to space by March 20 .

Offline William Graham

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #1 on: 01/27/2009 05:58 pm »
Xinhua is announcing that Iran will launch it's first satellite, Omid, next March 20 - Iran to send satellite to space by March 20 .

That says by 20 March, so it will probably happen beforehand.

Offline jcm

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #2 on: 02/03/2009 05:15 am »
Xinhua is announcing that Iran will launch it's first satellite, Omid, next March 20 - Iran to send satellite to space by March 20 .

That says by 20 March, so it will probably happen beforehand.

Omid was launched on Feb 2  and is being tracked in a 245 x 378 km x 55.5 deg orbit.
My calculations suggest launch was between 1830 and 1840 UTC.
Iranian news is calling the launch vehicle Safir-2.
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Offline jcm

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First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #3 on: 02/03/2009 05:18 am »
The first Iranian satellite was launched into orbit on Feb 2 at
around 1830 UTC on a southeastern trajectory from an unidentified
launch site in Iran. Two
objects are in orbits of 245 x 378 km x 55.51 deg and 245 x 439 x 55.6
deg; one is presumably the Omid payload and the other the Safir rocket
final stage, but it's not clear yet which is which. The first object's
orbit is close to the announced plan of a 250-350 km altitude.
The Iranian Students News Agency calls the launch vehicle
Safir-2; it's not clear if this is represents a different vehicle
type from Safir-1, or just a serial number.

International designation is 2009-04A and 2009-04B.

 - Jonathan
« Last Edit: 02/03/2009 10:35 am by Chris Bergin »
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Online osiossim

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #4 on: 02/03/2009 05:41 am »
« Last Edit: 02/03/2009 06:03 am by osiossim »

Offline Rusty_Barton

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Re: Live - First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #5 on: 02/03/2009 06:04 am »
Iran makes first satellite launch - BBC
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7866357.stm

Offline JimO

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Re: Live - First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #6 on: 02/03/2009 06:40 am »
Any independent confirmation orbit was achieved? Any estimated orbital parameters? Is it 2009-04A or was that some other launch?

Offline jcm

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Re: Live - First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #7 on: 02/03/2009 06:53 am »
Any independent confirmation orbit was achieved? Any estimated orbital parameters? Is it 2009-04A or was that some other launch?

Yes, already on one of the other threads, I'll repeat here with additions, apologies for wasted bandwidth.

The first Iranian satellite was launched into orbit on Feb 2 at
around 1830 UTC on a southeastern trajectory from an unidentified
launch site in Iran. Two
objects are in orbits of 245 x 378 km x 55.51 deg and 245 x 439 x 55.6
deg; one is presumably the Omid payload and the other the Safir rocket
final stage, but it's not clear yet which is which. The first object's
orbit is close to the announced plan of a 250-350 km altitude.
The Iranian Students News Agency calls the launch vehicle
Safir-2; it's not clear if this is represents a different vehicle
type from Safir-1, or just a serial number.

objects are 2009-004A and 004B. Launch track passes over Iran and two objects
orbits intersect shortly afer. launch time probably 1835 +- 5 min UTC.

 Jonathan
-----------------------------

Jonathan McDowell
http://planet4589.org

Offline Liss

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Re: Live - First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #8 on: 02/03/2009 07:11 am »
In this news item http://www.irinn.ir/Default.aspx?TabId=56&nid=122987 my uneducated eyes see the numbers 250 and 450 -- maybe kilometers of height?
This message reflects my personal opinion based on open sources of information.

Offline Skyrocket

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Re: Live - First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #10 on: 02/03/2009 08:53 am »
The Iranian Students News Agency calls the launch vehicle
Safir-2; it's not clear if this is represents a different vehicle
type from Safir-1, or just a serial number.

See here: http://www.irinn.ir/Default.aspx?TabID=36&aid=2055&pid=1
It's Safir Omid (2).

All 15 photos are from yesterday launch.
Waldemar Zwierzchlejski (astropl)
http://lk.astronautilus.pl

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #11 on: 02/03/2009 10:36 am »
So this actually happened, and they aren't talking about of their backsides as per usual for Iran?
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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #12 on: 02/03/2009 10:39 am »
Nice video of the launch:



All the news stations I've found talk about it as a given fact, including CNN.
« Last Edit: 02/03/2009 10:40 am by eeergo »
-DaviD-

Offline William Graham

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #13 on: 02/03/2009 10:41 am »
So this actually happened, and they aren't talking about of their backsides as per usual for Iran?

As I understand it, the US military have detected the satellite.

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #14 on: 02/03/2009 10:49 am »
Ok, thanks. Let's hope it raises some concerns in right places.
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Offline Analyst

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #15 on: 02/03/2009 10:54 am »
So this actually happened, and they aren't talking about of their backsides as per usual for Iran?
Ok, thanks. Let's hope it raises some concerns in right places.

What are you talking about?

Analyst

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #16 on: 02/03/2009 11:01 am »
Ok, thanks. Let's hope it raises some concerns in right places.

I don't think we should be concerned with this launch or with the fact that Iran has this kind of capability.

Offline iamlucky13

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #17 on: 02/03/2009 11:32 am »
Ok, thanks. Let's hope it raises some concerns in right places.

I don't think we should be concerned with this launch or with the fact that Iran has this kind of capability.

Given some of Iran's stated or implied intentions and hopes, improvements in their rocketry technology are most definitely cause for alarm. Whether or not that alarm is justified is up to Iran.

However, I'd rather talk about the launch than the politics. I can definitely appreciate the excitement the Iranian scientists and engineers must feel.

Assuming the pictures skyrocket linked to are representative, it is an unsurprisingly simple satellite. There's no solar cells visible on the top surface, and I'm sure there's no RCS that would keep panels on a single face pointed at the sun, so I presume it is battery powered and therefore has a definite operational duration.

I was surprised at first with by the squeal just before launch in the video. I thought they were using solid fueled rockets, but the Shahab this is supposedly based off of (itself a relative of the Scud) is apparently turbo-pump powered.

In the video, it looked like it tracked cleanly coming off the pad, but also was moving really slow, so the first stage is probably completely maxed out.

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #18 on: 02/03/2009 11:38 am »
So this actually happened, and they aren't talking about of their backsides as per usual for Iran?
Ok, thanks. Let's hope it raises some concerns in right places.

What are you talking about?

Analyst

Edit:

I'm going to moderate myself, as my personal feelings are getting in the way. People are right, I'll leave politics out of this and bite my tounge.
« Last Edit: 02/03/2009 11:43 am by Chris Bergin »
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Offline Liss

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #19 on: 02/03/2009 11:49 am »
Colleagues, if anybody speaks Farsi: does the news item http://www.irinn.ir/Default.aspx?TabId=56&nid=122987 say about the 25 kg satellite launched to 250x450 km by a two-stage launch vehicle of 22 meters in lenght and 27 tons in weigth?
This message reflects my personal opinion based on open sources of information.

Offline Justin Space

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #20 on: 02/03/2009 11:58 am »
TEHRAN, Iran —  Iran has successfully sent its first domestically made satellite into orbit, the country's president announced Tuesday, claiming a significant step in an ambitious space program that has worried many international observers.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,487126,00.html

Offline Davinator

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #21 on: 02/03/2009 12:04 pm »
So this actually happened, and they aren't talking about of their backsides as per usual for Iran?
Ok, thanks. Let's hope it raises some concerns in right places.

What are you talking about?

Analyst

Errr, it's IRAN!

Offline Analyst

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #22 on: 02/03/2009 12:45 pm »
How many countries have put satellites into orbit using a self developed launch vehicle? Let us discount all ESA memberstates but France and UK.

Soviet Union / Russia
USA
France
UK
Japan
China
India
Israel
Iran

Did I miss one? Quite an elite club.

Analyst
« Last Edit: 02/03/2009 12:46 pm by Analyst »

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #23 on: 02/03/2009 12:49 pm »
Video of launch, assembly and tests of the satellite, animation of launch, stage and spacecraft separation: http://www.irinn.ir/FileManager/Download.aspx?path=/Files/1/1387/bahman/15/15 - Akhavan - 01.wmv
The link is at the bottom of
http://www.irinn.ir/Default.aspx?TabId=15&nid=122954 .
This message reflects my personal opinion based on open sources of information.

Offline Yegor

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #24 on: 02/03/2009 01:28 pm »
Colleagues, if anybody speaks Farsi: does the news item http://www.irinn.ir/Default.aspx?TabId=56&nid=122987 say about the 25 kg satellite launched to 250x450 km by a two-stage launch vehicle of 22 meters in lenght and 27 tons in weigth?

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/090203/world/iran_space

"Iran sent its first Safir rocket into space in August. It is about 22 metres (72 feet) long, with a diameter of 1.25 metres (a little over four feet) and weighs more than 26 tonnes.

Iran's most powerful military missile, the Shahab-3, has a diameter of 1.30 metres and measures 17 metres in length. It has a range of 2,000 kilometres (1,250 miles) -- putting archfoe Israel and US forces in the region within reach."

"Iranian aerospace expert Asghar Ebrahimi said Omid has an elliptical orbit of minimum of 250 kilometres (156 miles) and maximum 400 kilometres."
« Last Edit: 02/03/2009 01:29 pm by Yegor »


Offline JimO

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #25 on: 02/03/2009 01:50 pm »
Safir-2 looks to be the Iranian equivalent of a "Jupiter-C" class vehicle.

Unless they have invented a very light warhead -- the so-called "golf ball of death" -- it seems to have minimal military implications even for Israel.

But it's progress towards such capabilities.

Offline Skyrocket

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #26 on: 02/03/2009 01:58 pm »
Video of launch, assembly and tests of the satellite, animation of launch, stage and spacecraft separation: http://www.irinn.ir/FileManager/Download.aspx?path=/Files/1/1387/bahman/15/15 - Akhavan - 01.wmv
The link is at the bottom of
http://www.irinn.ir/Default.aspx?TabId=15&nid=122954 .

The Video contains an computer animation of the launch, which shows the Safir to be a two-stage rocket.

Online eeergo

Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #27 on: 02/03/2009 01:59 pm »
Video of launch, assembly and tests of the satellite, animation of launch, stage and spacecraft separation: http://www.irinn.ir/FileManager/Download.aspx?path=/Files/1/1387/bahman/15/15 - Akhavan - 01.wmv
The link is at the bottom of
http://www.irinn.ir/Default.aspx?TabId=15&nid=122954 .

Very well made animation of staging, fairing sep and satellite release. Thanks for that.
-DaviD-

Offline Space Lizard

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #28 on: 02/03/2009 02:22 pm »
How many countries have put satellites into orbit using a self developed launch vehicle? Let us discount all ESA memberstates but France and UK.

You had the order wrong:

1 - 1957 - Soviet Union / Russia
2 - 1958 - USA
3 - 1965 - France
4 - 1970 Feb - Japan
5 - 1970 Apr - China
6 - 1971 - UK
7 - 1979 - Europe
8 - 1980 - India
9 - 1988 - Israel
10 - 2008 - Iran

Who will be next?

Brazil has been trying since 1997, North Korea tried in 1998 and South Korea should be trying soon.
I watch rockets

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #29 on: 02/03/2009 02:34 pm »

10 - 2008 - Iran

Who will be next?


2009

Offline JimO

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #30 on: 02/03/2009 02:41 pm »
Who will be next?

You're stuck in 'oldspace' thinking, regarding only governments as space players. SpaceX needs to be put on the list, too, as an independent satellite-launching entity.

...and didn't Saddamite Iraq try a satellite launch in 1989 or so?


Offline Ronsmytheiii

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #31 on: 02/03/2009 03:50 pm »
Who will be next?

You're stuck in 'oldspace' thinking, regarding only governments as space players. SpaceX needs to be put on the list, too, as an independent satellite-launching entity.

...and didn't Saddamite Iraq try a satellite launch in 1989 or so?



In that vein, shouldn't Orbital be put up as well with Pegsat and NavySat?

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #32 on: 02/03/2009 03:57 pm »
Yes. And here its starts getting difficult.

There is nothing wrong with using the "old" thinking: The classification is about the economic and scientific potential of a nation, be it achived by the public sector (government, NASA) or by private companies (which are btw. almost exclusively paid by the government when it comes to spaceflight). The distinction between public and private is meaningless with respect to the reason for the classification.

So I stay with the old scheme and start thinking about a new one when it is needed. This need may take a few more decades.

Analyst

Offline Slava33

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #33 on: 02/03/2009 05:12 pm »
Who will be next?

You're stuck in 'oldspace' thinking, regarding only governments as space players. SpaceX needs to be put on the list, too, as an independent satellite-launching entity.

...and didn't Saddamite Iraq try a satellite launch in 1989 or so?



How is SpaceX different from any other US aerospace company, selling most of its launches to the govt?

Offline Yegor

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #34 on: 02/03/2009 05:15 pm »
It looks like that it is a modified Scud missile:
http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/r17.htm







The first photo is of Scud.

The end of the LV in the video is the same as in the second photo with Iranian president which looks like Scud.

Scud weight is about 5 tons. Judging by length of Safir-2 LV, Safir-2 is probably around 7 tons. So probably it's performance is around 100 kg to orbit.

« Last Edit: 02/03/2009 05:17 pm by Yegor »


Offline JimO

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #35 on: 02/03/2009 08:39 pm »
There's a good discussion here on the surprise that the launcher was a two-stage version -- this implies that Iranian rocket technology is considerably more advanced then had been estimated:

Tuesday February 3, 2009 //Congratulations Iran!  By Jeffrey Lewis
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2174/congratulations-iran#comment

Offline Danderman

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #36 on: 02/03/2009 09:00 pm »
At 7 tons, would this be the lightest SUCCESSFUL ground launched satellite launch vehicle?

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #37 on: 02/03/2009 09:58 pm »
At 7 tons, would this be the lightest SUCCESSFUL ground launched satellite launch vehicle?

Most estimates say that it's 26 tons, and derived from Nodong (Scud D) not the original Scud;
e.g. diameter 1.3m not 0.9m.
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Offline Yegor

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #38 on: 02/03/2009 10:24 pm »
At 7 tons, would this be the lightest SUCCESSFUL ground launched satellite launch vehicle?

Most estimates say that it's 26 tons, and derived from Nodong (Scud D) not the original Scud;
e.g. diameter 1.3m not 0.9m.

The LV with the blue end on the photo next to the Iranian president has a diameter about 0.9m judging by proportion of people standing next to it.


Offline nacnud

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #39 on: 02/03/2009 10:42 pm »
I think the Iranian President Ahmadinejad is quite small at 5'4". This may effect your calculations.
« Last Edit: 02/03/2009 10:44 pm by nacnud »

Offline iamlucky13

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #40 on: 02/04/2009 01:25 am »
From some pictures linked earlier in the thread of the LV on the pad, I don't think it's quite the same vehicle as the one Ahmandinejad is touring above. I didn't see any aerodynamic fins on the Safir-Omid stack, although I'm sure the propulsion section is nearly the same.

Offline William Graham

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #41 on: 02/04/2009 04:56 am »
I didn't see any aerodynamic fins on the Safir-Omid stack, although I'm sure the propulsion section is nearly the same.

They are there. Look at 0:21 in the video above.

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Offline bad_astra

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #43 on: 02/04/2009 05:51 pm »
Would SeaLaunch count as Ukraine?
"Contact Light" -Buzz Aldrin

Offline iamlucky13

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #44 on: 02/05/2009 12:33 am »
I didn't see any aerodynamic fins on the Safir-Omid stack, although I'm sure the propulsion section is nearly the same.

They are there. Look at 0:21 in the video above.

Thanks. I hadn't watched the video before.

There's some neat animations in it. One of them shows what looks like small solar cells on each face of the Omid that weren't visible in the pictures, so it may be able to operate in limited capacity indefinitely.

So where does Iran go from here? I'm pretty sure that first stage is pretty much maxed out. Perhaps a little more performance from a small third stage, assuming this rocket didn't have one, but what about after that? Will Iran try to cluster first stages, develop tiny strap-ons, or develop/derive a larger engine?

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #45 on: 02/05/2009 12:49 am »
Media Advisory - Spokesperson on Iran's Launch Capability Available Now

WASHINGTON, Feb. 4 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The following is being issued by Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance:


BACKGROUND: Yesterday, Feb 3, 2009, Iran launched a satellite into space surprising the world. This technology could also be used to develop a ballistic missile capability that would threaten the United States and its allies.


SIGNIFICANCE: Iran now becomes more of a threat to the free world. The United States missile defense system is one way to counter this threat.


SPEAKER WHO WILL TALK ON THE RECORD: Riki Ellison, Chairman of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org is willing to talk about Iran's new capability, and he can talk about the need for our nation's missile defense system. His office number is 703 299-0061 or you may arrange an interview by calling Mike Terrill at 602 885-1955.


First Call Analyst:
FCMN Contact:


Source: Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance
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Offline EE Scott

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #46 on: 02/05/2009 12:57 am »
I suppose this will ramp up America's missile defense system research and test budget?
Scott

Offline edkyle99

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #47 on: 02/05/2009 05:00 am »
I suppose this will ramp up America's missile defense system research and test budget?

I doubt it.  Ballistic Missile Defense is already running at $9 billion per year.  Shahab 3/3A/3B, from which Safir may be derived, has been a known quantity for several years.   

 - Ed Kyle

Offline iamlucky13

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #48 on: 02/05/2009 06:23 am »
What it may do is lend support to completing the Airborne Laser project. I haven't heard any specific intentions to cancel it, but there's been speculation that it would be ripe for mothballing as a project that is over budget and definitely not part of the status quo arsenal.

Also perhaps supports the Ground Based Interceptor base in Poland.

But that ties back to my question above. This launcher had to be nearly maxed out, so a ballistic missile based on whatever distinguishes Safir from a Shahab carrying a useful weapon payload would have limited range, no doubt much than intercontinental. Even granting the general presumption that it's a cover for ballistic missile technology, what's Iran's next development step?

Offline Analyst

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #49 on: 02/05/2009 07:44 am »
Chris, you said you don't want to discuss politics. Now you are quoting a release from a very "independent" organisation / lobbying firm /whatever. To say this release is biased is an understatement.

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Offline JimO

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #50 on: 02/05/2009 01:19 pm »
Analyst, don't play pot/kettle here. Most public statements about missile defense come from very biased sources -- usually not pointed out if they are of one's own particular favored bias.

Fortunately,  'rocket science' is checkable in math, and against reality -- and this flight has provided immense insight into real capabilities.

Was it a two stage or three stage launcher? Optical observations may be able to answer this.

The implications of the two stage variant are that many public analysts have grossly underestimated the efficiency of Iranian rocketry. That's scary.

Let's find out.


Offline kevin-rf

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #51 on: 02/05/2009 01:35 pm »

Was it a two stage or three stage launcher? Optical observations may be able to answer this.

The implications of the two stage variant are that many public analysts have grossly underestimated the efficiency of Iranian rocketry. That's scary.

Let's find out.

More interesting if was a two stage is was it a direct insert or did the second stage restart (not much use for an ICBM, but really important for space activities). Most likely the people with the DSP like resources know how many burns, how long each burn was, the question is will they tell the rest of us.
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Offline brihath

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #52 on: 02/05/2009 01:42 pm »
It would be interesting to understand how closely the actual orbital parameters compare to planned parameters, as that would give more insight into their technological prowess.


Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #54 on: 02/05/2009 04:50 pm »
Based upon the locations in Ed Kyle's posting I have used my own software to calculate a launch time of 18:33 UT using the Two-Lines from Space-Track: these estimates are normally plus/minus a minute.
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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #55 on: 02/05/2009 05:04 pm »
More interesting if was a two stage is was it a direct insert or did the second stage restart (not much use for an ICBM, but really important for space activities).
My estimate based on COLA calculation gives the closest approach of 004A and 004B (which I assume to be the moment of separation) at Feb 02, 18:44 UTC over 17.2 N, 69.2E, some 2500 km from the launch site.
This message reflects my personal opinion based on open sources of information.

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #56 on: 02/05/2009 05:08 pm »
Based upon the locations in Ed Kyle's posting I have used my own software to calculate a launch time of 18:33 UT using the Two-Lines from Space-Track: these estimates are normally plus/minus a minute.
Semnan overfly time would be at 18:38, and separation time is probably 18:44. So I concur to Phillip's estimate of the time of launch.
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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #57 on: 02/05/2009 05:45 pm »
It seems the technology of the rocket come from DPRK, but it has been modified by Iran. Anyway, it's a big success compare with DPRK.

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #58 on: 02/05/2009 06:28 pm »
1) Optical observations may be able to answer this.

2) The implications of the two stage variant are that many public analysts have grossly underestimated the efficiency of Iranian rocketry. That's scary.

1) They seem to indicate two, not three stages.
2) Why is it scary?

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Offline jcm

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #59 on: 02/05/2009 06:30 pm »
More interesting if was a two stage is was it a direct insert or did the second stage restart (not much use for an ICBM, but really important for space activities).
My estimate based on COLA calculation gives the closest approach of 004A and 004B (which I assume to be the moment of separation) at Feb 02, 18:44 UTC over 17.2 N, 69.2E, some 2500 km from the launch site.

I doubt they did a restart. The elliptical orbit and low altitude suggest a single second stage burn to me, there would be no reason for a coast period.

Phillip's launch time estimate is consistent with the 1834 UTC I've posted elsewhere, so it looks like we've converged on that.
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Offline jcm

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #60 on: 02/05/2009 06:32 pm »
Here is my updated summary from planet4589.org:

IRANIAN SATELLITE LAUNCH
------------------------

The first Iranian satellite was launched into orbit on Feb 2 at around
1834 UTC +/- 5 min on a southeastern trajectory from an unidentified
launch site in Iran. Two objects are in orbits of 245 x 378 km x 55.51
deg and 245 x 439 x 55.6 deg; radio signals picked up by Bob Christy,
Sven Grahn and Greg Roberts confirm that 2009-04A is the Omid payload
and the 2009-04B is the Safir rocket final stage. Omid's
orbit is close to the announced plan of a 250-350 km altitude. The
Iranian Students News Agency calls the launch vehicle Safir-2; it's not
clear if this is represents a different vehicle type from Safir-1, or
just a serial number. Pictures of the launch show "Safir - Omid (2)
IRILV" painted on the side of the rocket. Based on an Iranian video
showing an animation of the launch, it appears that Safir is a two-stage
launch vehicle.

The launch animation shows two half-annular payload clamps jettisoned
into orbit at the time of spacecraft separation. These have not yet
been cataloged.

The satellite has a mass of 27 kg (ISA web) or 25 kg (IRINN news agency)
and it is a 0.40m cube. It carries an instrument to measure the space
environment, and a GPS receiver modified for use in the unstabilized
(i.e. tumbling) satellite, according to the Iranian Space Agency web
site isa.ir. (Thanks to Reza Farivar for translation). IRNA associates
the project with "Saa Iran Industries", and connects it with the
celebrations for the 30th anniversary of the revolution that brought
Ayatollah Khomeini to power.

The launch site is believed to be at 35.23N 53.92E, southeast of Semnan.
The ground track passes over this site at 1838 UTC. This isn't the
launch time, since the orbital track doesn't take the slow first few
minutes of flight into account. I looked at the difference between
launch time and time of orbit-over-launch-pad for the two-stage Soviet
11K63 vehicle and found an offset of 4 to 5 minutes. If this offset
applies to Safir,  and the identification of the launch site is correct,
the launch time would have been 1833-1834 UTC. I get around 4 minutes
offset for a 1963 two-stage Thor Agena but only 1 minute for a 1964 Thor
Agena, so I suspect the uncertainty in this correction is itself
of order 3-4 minutes.

It is still not clear whether the 2008 Aug 16 Safir launch was just a
test, or an orbital attempt that failed. The conclusion that Safir is a
two-stage vehicle and not, as had been  speculated, a three-stage one,
tips me slightly more in favor of the orbital-attempt theory.

-----------------------------

Jonathan McDowell
http://planet4589.org

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #61 on: 02/05/2009 06:47 pm »
Chris, you said you don't want to discuss politics. Now you are quoting a release from a very "independent" organisation / lobbying firm /whatever. To say this release is biased is an understatement.

Analyst

Came in on the PR Newswire feed, where the NASA pressers come from (didn't go searching for it), so added it given its relevance to the official stance of the US governement, and most countries in the free world, in reaction to the launch from this regime. I feel that is relevant.
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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #62 on: 02/05/2009 07:45 pm »
I understand. We all know space technology - as most technology - can be used in two ways. But I think focussing to much on the potential military use compared to other uses is misleading and overreacting. I don't say you do :) , just pointing out.

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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #63 on: 02/05/2009 08:17 pm »

The implications of the two stage variant are that many public analysts have grossly underestimated the efficiency of Iranian rocketry. That's scary.


Can I ask a simple question?

The payload is only 25/27ish kg. Seems we are talking a single second stage burn. It is in a very low orbit.

If the second stage burned to depletion, seems to me like the second stage was barely able to place itself into orbit. The small sat mass is in the noise compared to the second stage dry mass.

Maybe not as advance as we would like to make it out be? Fall back position because they could not get the third stage to work on prior tests?

I wonder how from a size standpoint this vehicle compares to vanguard... There is a scale diagram I would like to see.
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Offline the_roche_lobe

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #64 on: 02/05/2009 08:18 pm »
What do we know about the second stage of this vehicle? What sort of propellant combination / ISP would it require to direct insert an admittedly small payload? (hypergols?) What sort of technology might they have adapted or might it be an entirely indigenous second stage?

P

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #65 on: 02/05/2009 08:30 pm »
I understand. We all know space technology - as most technology - can be used in two ways. But I think focussing to much on the potential military use compared to other uses is misleading and overreacting. I don't say you do :) , just pointing out.

Analyst

Might be my military side leaking through :)
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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #66 on: 02/05/2009 09:29 pm »
I havn't seen any mention of the  PressTV coverage here ( sorry if I missed it ) but on my website I have placed a couple  of video clips , one with English translation.

They are on the "Iran Launch 1"   and "2"  buttons here:

http://satcom.website.orange.co.uk/

Incidentally the telemetry has been partially decoded by an observer in eastern Europe .


Offline edkyle99

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #67 on: 02/05/2009 10:58 pm »
I understand. We all know space technology - as most technology - can be used in two ways. But I think focussing to much on the potential military use compared to other uses is misleading and overreacting. I don't say you do :) , just pointing out.

Analyst

Might be my military side leaking through :)

Seeing another nation join the space club is terrific.  Knowing that engineers worked late into the night to create a new flying machine makes me, an engineer, happy. 

At the same time, I believe that the military concerns are a valid part of this story.  Just as the U.S.A.'s Jupiter-C was originally developed to test reentry vehicle heat shield technologies years before it was used to launch Explorer I, Safir could serve as an R&D step toward longer range missiles, etc..   

If the effort were entirely civil in nature, wouldn't Iran have notified the world's media of the launch date in advance as the U.S. did for its recent $2 billion "top secret" DoD launch - a practice followed by the other space fairing nations?  Why are we left to wonder if there are two or three stages, whether there was or was not an earlier orbital attempt, what that possible big new pad is for, and so on? 

I would like to see Iran conduct an "open" space program, to share the wonder of it all with the rest of the world and to end the suspicions that are posited by other governments.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 02/06/2009 01:10 am by edkyle99 »

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #68 on: 02/05/2009 11:29 pm »

If the effort were entirely civil in nature, wouldn't Iran have notified the world's media of the launch date in advance


And be embarassed if it failed? If you don't notify you can claim anything... If it is not a weapon in a LV's clothing there is probally a high political price to pay for failure. The first vanguard failure might serve as an example here.

Another thing to think about, I wonder how different this is from Atlas-Score. An empty rocket putting itself in orbit.

Quote
I would like to see Iran conduct an "open" space program,

I don't think anyone would disagree with that. An open Iran would be nice  :-[
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Offline edkyle99

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #69 on: 02/06/2009 12:12 am »
What do we know about the second stage of this vehicle? What sort of propellant combination / ISP would it require to direct insert an admittedly small payload? (hypergols?) What sort of technology might they have adapted or might it be an entirely indigenous second stage?

P

Assuming a Shahab 3 type propulsion system, I figure that a second stage could have a propulsion system with a specific impulse less than 300 seconds and still be capable of orbiting a small payload, assuming stage mass fractions not vastly different than that of Shahab 3.  This could be achieved with a pressure fed second stage engine.  A first stage engine producing 30 tonnes of thrust would be needed, but the second stage would only need to produce 2-3 tonnes of thrust.  This is, after all, a very small payload of only 25-30 kg.

The addition of a very small solid motor kick stage could vastly improve performance.  150-200 kg seems probable with a small kick stage. 

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 02/06/2009 12:23 am by edkyle99 »

Offline edkyle99

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #70 on: 02/06/2009 12:57 am »
Another thing to think about, I wonder how different this is from Atlas-Score. An empty rocket putting itself in orbit.

The final stage entered a stable orbit.  Small add-on, non-deployed, unannounced payloads attached to the empty stage are always a possibility. 

Nearly every satellite leaves a little-noted final stage (or two) in orbit.  I've always wondered how many carried unannounced "packages".  More than a few, I suspect. 

 - Ed Kyle

Offline iamlucky13

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #71 on: 02/06/2009 02:40 am »
It carries an instrument to measure the space
environment, and a GPS receiver modified for use in the unstabilized
(i.e. tumbling) satellite, according to the Iranian Space Agency web
site isa.ir.

The animation seemed to show a spin-stabilized release...

Offline robertross

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #72 on: 02/07/2009 05:24 pm »

Seeing another nation join the space club is terrific.  Knowing that engineers worked late into the night to create a new flying machine makes me, an engineer, happy. 

At the same time, I believe that the military concerns are a valid part of this story.  Just as the U.S.A.'s Jupiter-C was originally developed to test reentry vehicle heat shield technologies years before it was used to launch Explorer I, Safir could serve as an R&D step toward longer range missiles, etc..   

If the effort were entirely civil in nature, wouldn't Iran have notified the world's media of the launch date in advance as the U.S. did for its recent $2 billion "top secret" DoD launch - a practice followed by the other space fairing nations?  Why are we left to wonder if there are two or three stages, whether there was or was not an earlier orbital attempt, what that possible big new pad is for, and so on? 

I would like to see Iran conduct an "open" space program, to share the wonder of it all with the rest of the world and to end the suspicions that are posited by other governments.

 - Ed Kyle


I agree with you too Ed. I see no problem with this as long as they continue along a commercial space trend. They have just as much right as any other country to advance their capability to launching satellites for domestic purposes (or international for that matter). To subjugate them because of our own fears does not make them an instant threat requiring immediate and/or retaliatory action.

Having said that however, I think that if they cross that line, then it falls under the realm of the US DoD, and other countries' defenses. But let's try and keep some optimism.
[/quote]
« Last Edit: 02/07/2009 05:28 pm by robertross »

Offline kkattula

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #73 on: 02/08/2009 07:29 am »
The worry is Iran has more than enough domestic problems to deal with, without spending money developing a service they can buy commercially. It kind of begs the question of ulterior motive.

Maybe they just want spy satellites, and no-one will launch them for them. That's about the most benign motive I can assign them.

National pride, maybe, but that's a risky move if the people think the money could be better spent.

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #74 on: 02/08/2009 10:53 am »
National pride, maybe, but that's a risky move if the people think the money could be better spent.

Exactly how many times have you heard the "money-better-spent" argument for U.S./ESA/Russia, whatever?

If anyone went with it, noone would have a space program anymore.

Offline Analyst

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #75 on: 02/08/2009 04:59 pm »
1) The worry is Iran has more than enough domestic problems to deal with, without spending money developing a service they can buy commercially.

2) It kind of begs the question of ulterior motive.

3) Maybe they just want spy satellites, and no-one will launch them for them. That's about the most benign motive I can assign them.

4) National pride, maybe, but that's a risky move if the people think the money could be better spent.

1) This can be said for any country, with or without a space program, including the US.

2) Isn't this obvious? They want to show the world - and their own people - they master the technology. And they send the signal: Don't attac us. We can strike back and harm you if we must. These are the same reasons why the US (and the Soviet Union) started a space program in the first place.

3) Spy satellites come later. For now, see 2).

4) The Iranian people don't think so. They are proud people. And their country is threatened by at least two nuclear powers. 2) works pretty good under these conditions.

You only have to look at how the US and the Soviet Union acted in the cold war and you understand why Iran acts as it does. They are driven by fear about their freedom as a souverain state.

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Offline Patchouli

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #76 on: 02/08/2009 05:38 pm »
I know Shahab is based off the Scud-C but the exhaust almost looks like a Kero lox engine vs the hypergolics used in most Scud variants?

Here's a pic of a Shahab engine I found it looks remarkably like the old German V2 engine.
This engine off the shahab 1 lacks the injector cups found on the Alchemy engine Planetspace/Canadian Arrow built suggesting it's a hypergolic engine though I'm not sure if that's a good indicator.
One interesting possibility I think planetspace could have beaten spacex to orbit if they were more organized and continued work on the Canadian Arrow.
« Last Edit: 02/08/2009 05:56 pm by Patchouli »

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #77 on: 02/08/2009 08:23 pm »
I know Shahab is based off the Scud-C but the exhaust almost looks like a Kero lox engine vs the hypergolics used in most Scud variants?

KeroLOX? No, don't think so: where's the boiloff, the umbilical connectors... Moreover, the startup was really fast, and it didn't have any "greasy fireball" (or just blackish smoke if somehow they went O2-rich) Just an armchair impression, but that sure looked like hypergols, although apparently not N204/UDMH.
-DaviD-

Offline hop

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #78 on: 02/09/2009 12:57 am »
The worry is Iran has more than enough domestic problems to deal with, without spending money developing a service they can buy commercially. It kind of begs the question of ulterior motive.
Talk of ulterior motives strikes me as bit misplaced: Iran makes no secret of their pursuit of long range missiles, and their launcher is clearly derived from this effort. It doesn't make sense to say they are using the space effort as cover for a program that is itself publicly boasted about.

It seems pretty obvious to me they are extracting additional value from the money they spent on developing missiles (a pattern that dates all the way back to sputnik.) The value includes both propaganda and practical applications like reconnaissance.

Re propellant: FAS lists the propellant of the Shabib-3/Nodong/Ghauri family as
Quote
Fuel     TM-185
    20% Gasoline
    80% Kerosene
Oxidizer    AK-27I
    27% N2O4
    73% HNO3
    Iodium Inhibitor

Offline Patchouli

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #79 on: 02/09/2009 01:43 am »
The worry is Iran has more than enough domestic problems to deal with, without spending money developing a service they can buy commercially. It kind of begs the question of ulterior motive.
Talk of ulterior motives strikes me as bit misplaced: Iran makes no secret of their pursuit of long range missiles, and their launcher is clearly derived from this effort. It doesn't make sense to say they are using the space effort as cover for a program that is itself publicly boasted about.

It seems pretty obvious to me they are extracting additional value from the money they spent on developing missiles (a pattern that dates all the way back to sputnik.) The value includes both propaganda and practical applications like reconnaissance.

Re propellant: FAS lists the propellant of the Shabib-3/Nodong/Ghauri family as
Quote
Fuel     TM-185
    20% Gasoline
    80% Kerosene
Oxidizer    AK-27I
    27% N2O4
    73% HNO3
    Iodium Inhibitor

Seems it's using nitric acid spiked with nitrogen tetroxide for an oxidizer.
I figured it had to been burning hydro carbons as a fuel as luminous as that flame was.
Here's the site I found the first pic with some comparisons of a large part of the family.
http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets_1/Diverse/Scud/Scud.htm
« Last Edit: 02/09/2009 01:44 am by Patchouli »


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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #81 on: 02/10/2009 09:09 am »
A very interesting choice of fuel/oxidiser, I would be interested to know the rationale behind it. I would have thought nitric acid to be harder to handle than hydrazine after all -- maybe there aren't commercial sources of hydrazine in the same way there are sources of nitric acid?

I really don't see the threat from this. There are plenty of other methods of nuclear weapons delivery. I am more worried about smuggled in weapons -- it provides plausible deniability.
John

Offline JimO

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #82 on: 02/10/2009 11:29 am »
For deliverability, the scariest suggestion is a few mid-range missiles in the hold of a false-flagged freighter. No return address.

Offline William Barton

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #83 on: 02/10/2009 12:50 pm »
The worry is Iran has more than enough domestic problems to deal with, without spending money developing a service they can buy commercially. It kind of begs the question of ulterior motive.
Talk of ulterior motives strikes me as bit misplaced: Iran makes no secret of their pursuit of long range missiles, and their launcher is clearly derived from this effort. It doesn't make sense to say they are using the space effort as cover for a program that is itself publicly boasted about.

It seems pretty obvious to me they are extracting additional value from the money they spent on developing missiles (a pattern that dates all the way back to sputnik.) The value includes both propaganda and practical applications like reconnaissance.

Re propellant: FAS lists the propellant of the Shabib-3/Nodong/Ghauri family as
Quote
Fuel     TM-185
    20% Gasoline
    80% Kerosene
Oxidizer    AK-27I
    27% N2O4
    73% HNO3
    Iodium Inhibitor

Is that combination hypergolic? I have some old memory suggesting the first hypergolic combination discovered was turpentine and white nitric acid. And wasn't IRFNA used with hydrazine in the early days?

Offline William Barton

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #84 on: 02/10/2009 12:54 pm »
For deliverability, the scariest suggestion is a few mid-range missiles in the hold of a false-flagged freighter. No return address.

The poor man's boomer. Back in the day, I thought once Minuteman went into service, we should've put the old Atlases and Titan I's on converted oil tankers. Tie up some part of the Soviet navy keeping up with them. Of course, I also thought we should've equipped the B-58s with anti-shipping missiles and kept them flying too, but OT here, I guess.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #85 on: 02/10/2009 01:00 pm »
For deliverability, the scariest suggestion is a few mid-range missiles in the hold of a false-flagged freighter. No return address.

I don't know, (probably risking the mod button here) but I think if Iran was able to make the bomb that fits inside a missile, they would use it before testing it. The announcement they have the bomb will be a blinding flash somewhere in Israel.

One thing to think about is they have the ability to produce U-235, not Plutonium. The US was confident enough in the U-235 gun type design that they didn't actually test the design before using it on Hiroshima. Think about that... At least the Hiroshima design was really heavy, hopefully to heavy for a modified two stage Scud that can reach Israel.
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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #86 on: 02/10/2009 01:17 pm »
if Iran was able to make the bomb that fits inside a missile, they would use it before testing it. The announcement they have the bomb will be a blinding flash somewhere in Israel.

I wonder... Given how such an act would have an equally severe, if not worse, retaliation, would they really be crazy enough to use it? A nuclear weapon is so mindboggingly devastating that this fact's the only thing that's been keeping everyone from using the weapon up to this day.

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #87 on: 02/10/2009 01:39 pm »
For deliverability, the scariest suggestion is a few mid-range missiles in the hold of a false-flagged freighter. No return address.

I don't know, (probably risking the mod button here) but I think if Iran was able to make the bomb that fits inside a missile, they would use it before testing it. The announcement they have the bomb will be a blinding flash somewhere in Israel.

One thing to think about is they have the ability to produce U-235, not Plutonium. The US was confident enough in the U-235 gun type design that they didn't actually test the design before using it on Hiroshima. Think about that... At least the Hiroshima design was really heavy, hopefully to heavy for a modified two stage Scud that can reach Israel.

Three things:
1) You are wrong. Why do you think the Iranians want to die?
2) Talking about Hiroshima: The only country which used nuclear weapons does not want others to even have these weapons. How do you explain this?
But maybe Hiroshima explains the fear when it comes to Iran. Will they act like the US did? No, they won't, if only because of 1). Simple game theory.
3) This is OT.

Analyst

Offline Analyst

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #88 on: 02/10/2009 01:40 pm »
A nuclear weapon is so mindboggingly devastating that this fact's the only thing that's been keeping everyone from using the weapon up to this day.

Except one. But this was before retaliation was possible.

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #89 on: 02/10/2009 01:43 pm »
A nuclear weapon is so mindboggingly devastating that this fact's the only thing that's been keeping everyone from using the weapon up to this day.

Except one. But this was before retaliation was possible.

Well, if we're going to be pedantic, then there were two drops, not one. But you get my point. It's a deterrent, a standoff weapon and a political tool. I agree not even Iranians would be foolish enough to use it.

Offline Yegor

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #90 on: 02/10/2009 02:00 pm »
A nuclear weapon is so mindboggingly devastating that this fact's the only thing that's been keeping everyone from using the weapon up to this day.

Except one. But this was before retaliation was possible.

Well, if we're going to be pedantic, then there were two drops, not one. But you get my point. It's a deterrent, a standoff weapon and a political tool. I agree not even Iranians would be foolish enough to use it.

Iranian president religion is "Usuli Twelver Shi'a Islam":
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Ahmadinejad
"Twelver Shi'a Islam":
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelver

According to Twelver Shī‘as Muhammad al-Māhdī is the final Imām of the Twelve Imams and the Māhdī, the ultimate savior of humankind. Twelver Shī‘as believe that al-Māhdī was born in 869 and has been hidden by God (referred to as the Occultation) to later emerge with Jesus in order to fulfill their mission of bringing peace and justice to the world.
Twelver Shi'as believe that Imam al-Mahdi will reappear when the world has fallen into chaos and civil war emerges between the human race for no reason.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_al-Mahdi

Now dropping a nuclear bomb on Israel will probably put the world into chaos.
« Last Edit: 02/10/2009 02:07 pm by Yegor »


Offline William Barton

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #91 on: 02/10/2009 02:06 pm »
A nuclear weapon is so mindboggingly devastating that this fact's the only thing that's been keeping everyone from using the weapon up to this day.

Except one. But this was before retaliation was possible.

Well, if we're going to be pedantic, then there were two drops, not one. But you get my point. It's a deterrent, a standoff weapon and a political tool. I agree not even Iranians would be foolish enough to use it.

Heretofore, nuclear weapons have only been in the hands of secular regimes, where the leaders would face personal annihiliation with at least some doubt about what that would mean for them individually. Short of a single hyperpower successfully completing a campaign of planetary conquest and disarming everyone else, the odds are good arms control and non-proliferation will continue to fail. Even if the Iranians are not so foolish as to use nuclear weapons, down the road a bit someone else will be.

Offline Analyst

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #92 on: 02/10/2009 02:33 pm »
Even if the Iranians are not so foolish as to use nuclear weapons, down the road a bit someone else will be.

As I said above, one already did. Twice. Besides, if your statement is for sure, we can't help anyway. So why bother?

Analyst

Offline Liss

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #93 on: 02/10/2009 02:37 pm »
My impression is that here we discuss technical issues regarding the Omid satellite and Safir launch vehicle, and not the issues of non-proliferation, nuclear strategy etc.
This message reflects my personal opinion based on open sources of information.

Offline Strato

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #94 on: 02/15/2009 08:56 pm »
So this actually happened, and they aren't talking about of their backsides as per usual for Iran?
Ok, thanks. Let's hope it raises some concerns in right places.

What are you talking about?

Analyst

Errr, it's IRAN!

No need to worry, the Earth is already a basket case when it comes to the effect of Earth warming gases on our climate, exploding population, shortages of food due to accentuated use of fertile soil to grow `bio-fuels`, droughts, floods and all, just wait and see when we will have more ecological refugees. I don`t lose sleep over one more small sat launcher/ICBM.

In the coming years we will see a bunch more nations getting their ICBMs or sat launchers, no doubt.

Let`s see, North Korea is going to have it soon, South Korea is working on it, now Iran, i wouldn`t be surprised to see more countries in the next 20 years or so. I lived with the Damocles sword of thousands of Soviet missiles for more than half of my life, a couple more won`t make a difference. The people who are in that game understand the rules very well. The terms of nuclear deterance diplomacy are usually blunt. When they are smaller powers, even more so. They know what they have been told. Most of it, i see their program as one of prestige. Don't forget the historical background of Persians. They are a proud people, proud of the science of their thousands year old civilization. If you read between the line carefully, you will see this is in good part what it`s about. But sure, they wouldn`t say no to a military capability from this one. And also yes, there`s still that spiky problem north of the Israel border with their stockpile of SRBMs.. That`s probably the Real problem (regionnal).
« Last Edit: 02/15/2009 09:45 pm by Strato »

Offline Strato

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #95 on: 02/15/2009 09:20 pm »

Was it a two stage or three stage launcher? Optical observations may be able to answer this.

The implications of the two stage variant are that many public analysts have grossly underestimated the efficiency of Iranian rocketry. That's scary.

Let's find out.

More interesting if was a two stage is was it a direct insert or did the second stage restart (not much use for an ICBM, but really important for space activities). Most likely the people with the DSP like resources know how many burns, how long each burn was, the question is will they tell the rest of us.

Interesting.

Offline Strato

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #96 on: 02/15/2009 09:30 pm »
The worry is Iran has more than enough domestic problems to deal with, without spending money developing a service they can buy commercially. It kind of begs the question of ulterior motive.

Maybe they just want spy satellites, and no-one will launch them for them. That's about the most benign motive I can assign them.

National pride, maybe, but that's a risky move if the people think the money could be better spent.

National pride maybe an overwelming motivation in this case, such as was the case with India`s and Pakistan`s show off nuclear tests 'competition'. I would not be surprised. But of course combined with the two other motivations.

And as someone said so well (and made me remember), there would not have been a US or a Russian space program in the first place (and Moon landing) if it was not for national pride.
« Last Edit: 02/15/2009 09:46 pm by Strato »

Offline iamlucky13

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #97 on: 02/16/2009 06:10 am »
1) You are wrong. Why do you think the Iranians want to die?
2) Talking about Hiroshima: The only country which used nuclear weapons does not want others to even have these weapons. How do you explain this?
But maybe Hiroshima explains the fear when it comes to Iran. Will they act like the US did? No, they won't, if only because of 1). Simple game theory.
3) This is OT.
Analyst

1.) Agreed on the suicidal ideas. But the presence of nuclear weapons also changes the nature of conventional warfare or even just plain old dictatorship. Deposing an out-of-control nuclear-armed government is like cornering a wounded predator.

2.) If the US were to start a war of aggression against Iran, steadfastly refusing to cease, withdraw from captured lands, and reform, and vowing to fight to the last man as Japan did, Iran could probably get away in the eyes of much of the international community with using nuclear weapons.

3.) Well, delivery is an aspect of both the above points, but I'll leave off after my point below.

Quote from: JimO
For deliverability, the scariest suggestion is a few mid-range missiles in the hold of a false-flagged freighter. No return address.

Meh...Israel blew up something in Syria (the last story I heard was "concrete mixing equipment") in 2007 three days after it arrived from North Korea.

The point being that nothing had even happened yet, but Israel (and probably the US) already knew enough about what was going on to risk international condemnation by an unprovoked attack on another nation. Incidentally, international criticism after that incident was weak...the Syrians' secret wasn't quite secret.

So no return address doesn't apply. Ships show up in ports and on satellite, even when bearing false flags. People talk. Unusual hardware and military people around where military people usually aren't gets noticed. After the fact (God forbid), nuclear materials may be traceable by isotope ratio.

In short, I can't imagine Iran being stupid enough to use a nuclear weapon except as a last ditch retaliation, but having them changes their bargaining chips for anything else they might want to do, even more so if you add in effective means of delivery.
« Last Edit: 02/16/2009 06:14 am by iamlucky13 »

Offline Khadgars

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #98 on: 02/16/2009 07:15 am »
For deliverability, the scariest suggestion is a few mid-range missiles in the hold of a false-flagged freighter. No return address.

I don't know, (probably risking the mod button here) but I think if Iran was able to make the bomb that fits inside a missile, they would use it before testing it. The announcement they have the bomb will be a blinding flash somewhere in Israel.

One thing to think about is they have the ability to produce U-235, not Plutonium. The US was confident enough in the U-235 gun type design that they didn't actually test the design before using it on Hiroshima. Think about that... At least the Hiroshima design was really heavy, hopefully to heavy for a modified two stage Scud that can reach Israel.

Three things:
1) You are wrong. Why do you think the Iranians want to die?
2) Talking about Hiroshima: The only country which used nuclear weapons does not want others to even have these weapons. How do you explain this?
But maybe Hiroshima explains the fear when it comes to Iran. Will they act like the US did? No, they won't, if only because of 1). Simple game theory.
3) This is OT.

Analyst


Analyst,

1) Yes the Iranians don't want to die, but yet support Hezbollah that has waged war on Israel and Western countries for decades.  Clearly they're not afraid of a fight and if you knew more about what governed their state and Shirah law then you would understand.  I've lived in the Middle East and I can tell you most of the countries there are extremely afraid of both Iran and Hezbollah.

2) You are completely distorting facts here Analyst and I expect more from you.  Hiroshima and Nagasaki were nuked for two reasons; 1 Japan was unwilling to surrender and they still has millions of soldiers willing to die, the death toll of invading mainland Japan would have been catastrophic.  This was made clear when even after the Emperor of Japan decided to surrender, high level Japanese generals were trying to cover it up and prevent him from delivering the message to the country and the Americans so they could continue their war.  Second the Russians were already moving in to invade Japan, if they were able to reach mainland Japan the world would have had it's second Berlin wall, this time much larger.  Dropping the bomb was the best thing that could have happened to Japan at the end of the war, even with all the death involved and most Japanese agree with this sentiment.

3) The fear with Iran and it seems you are completely ignoring is the connections with Hezbollah.  Where do you think all the rockets come from that Hezbollah fires 40 times a day into southern Israel?  If Iran produces nuclear material it will no doubt end up in the hands of Hezbollah, and that's damm freighting.  Because even if Iran didn't want Hezbollah to detonate a nuclear bomb in Israel, Hezbollah is still capable of acting on it's own using Jihad as it's guiding light.
« Last Edit: 02/16/2009 07:35 am by Khadgars »
Evil triumphs when good men do nothing - Thomas Jefferson

Offline johnxx9

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #99 on: 02/16/2009 08:33 am »
For deliverability, the scariest suggestion is a few mid-range missiles in the hold of a false-flagged freighter. No return address.

I don't know, (probably risking the mod button here) but I think if Iran was able to make the bomb that fits inside a missile, they would use it before testing it. The announcement they have the bomb will be a blinding flash somewhere in Israel.

One thing to think about is they have the ability to produce U-235, not Plutonium. The US was confident enough in the U-235 gun type design that they didn't actually test the design before using it on Hiroshima. Think about that... At least the Hiroshima design was really heavy, hopefully to heavy for a modified two stage Scud that can reach Israel.

Three things:
1) You are wrong. Why do you think the Iranians want to die?
2) Talking about Hiroshima: The only country which used nuclear weapons does not want others to even have these weapons. How do you explain this?
But maybe Hiroshima explains the fear when it comes to Iran. Will they act like the US did? No, they won't, if only because of 1). Simple game theory.
3) This is OT.

Analyst


Analyst,

1) Yes the Iranians don't want to die, but yet support Hezbollah that has waged war on Israel and Western countries for decades.  Clearly they're not afraid of a fight and if you knew more about what governed their state and Shirah law then you would understand.  I've lived in the Middle East and I can tell you most of the countries there are extremely afraid of both Iran and Hezbollah.

2) You are completely distorting facts here Analyst and I expect more from you.  Hiroshima and Nagasaki were nuked for two reasons; 1 Japan was unwilling to surrender and they still has millions of soldiers willing to die, the death toll of invading mainland Japan would have been catastrophic.  This was made clear when even after the Emperor of Japan decided to surrender, high level Japanese generals were trying to cover it up and prevent him from delivering the message to the country and the Americans so they could continue their war.  Second the Russians were already moving in to invade Japan, if they were able to reach mainland Japan the world would have had it's second Berlin wall, this time much larger.  Dropping the bomb was the best thing that could have happened to Japan at the end of the war, even with all the death involved and most Japanese agree with this sentiment.

3) The fear with Iran and it seems you are completely ignoring is the connections with Hezbollah.  Where do you think all the rockets come from that Hezbollah fires 40 times a day into southern Israel?  If Iran produces nuclear material it will no doubt end up in the hands of Hezbollah, and that's damm freighting.  Because even if Iran didn't want Hezbollah to detonate a nuclear bomb in Israel, Hezbollah is still capable of acting on it's own using Jihad as it's guiding light.

People! This is place for discussion on space not on Jihad or Shirah law. Please keep these things away.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #100 on: 02/16/2009 01:38 pm »

Except we have not determined if this was a test of an orbital delivery vehicle or a max Delta V flight of an empty IRBM that had a token payload on it.

Very interesting that the "test" sat had a GPS receiver on it. Testing the errors generated at orbital speeds in the GPS system they have chosen? Test to learn how to guide a warhead using GPS on an IRBM? Very interesting test if you ask me.

<Don't forget GPS accuracy can be affected by high speeds if it is not taken account for in the design>
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Offline Analyst

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #101 on: 02/16/2009 02:25 pm »
Yeh, and why do they tell everyone about the GPS receiver? Is it even there? Do they want to look better, more capable than they are? Do they want speculation like this?

All this speculation and fear doesn't get us anywhere, but I am sure some NMD companies may profit. This is one more country with rocket technology. I don't lose any sleep over it (and really, I wouldn't mind if nobody did).

Analyst

PS: Btw., Hezbollah is in southern Libanon, not in Gaza (southern Israel border). Sometimes things get messed up with multiple enemies.
« Last Edit: 02/16/2009 02:31 pm by Analyst »

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #102 on: 02/16/2009 03:28 pm »
So why didn't they use GLONASS?

I think there will always be two groups of though on this flight. One that it is an IRBM in an LV's clothing and the other that wish to believe there is nothing sinister and they want to go to the stars and every rocket into Isreal contains a dozen roses.

Short of an IRBM landing in Isreal with a blinding flash or Iran getting rational and tossing all the centrifuges into the persian gulf this arguement will go on forever.

As tested someone needs to convince me that this was not a test of an IRBM without a payload. Use of LOX, or a third stage, or a two burn second stage profile would convince me... All of those would say tailored for use as an LV and not an IRBM, but to date that is not the case.
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Offline edkyle99

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #103 on: 02/16/2009 04:00 pm »
As tested someone needs to convince me that this was not a test of an IRBM without a payload. Use of LOX, or a third stage, or a two burn second stage profile would convince me... All of those would say tailored for use as an LV and not an IRBM, but to date that is not the case.

Iran tests IRBMs separately in their IRBM configurations (Shahab 3, etc.).  Safir could be a technology testbed, but it doesn't look like an IRBM - not a very effective IRBM at any rate.  It might have extended range as a missile, but only with limited payload and only using significant launcher infrastructure. 

A much more significant Iranian missile development is that nation's apparent testing of long-range, staged solid fuel missile technology.  A solid fuel missile will instantly out-mode all of the Shahab-based technology.

 - Ed Kyle

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #104 on: 02/16/2009 04:10 pm »

A much more significant Iranian missile development is that nation's apparent testing of long-range, staged solid fuel missile technology.  A solid fuel missile will instantly out-mode all of the Shahab-based technology.

 - Ed Kyle

The press is full of claims that they are doing that, but have they actually tested an IRBM/ICBM or even scud sized solid yet?
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Offline edkyle99

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #105 on: 02/16/2009 05:06 pm »

A much more significant Iranian missile development is that nation's apparent testing of long-range, staged solid fuel missile technology.  A solid fuel missile will instantly out-mode all of the Shahab-based technology.

 - Ed Kyle

The press is full of claims that they are doing that, but have they actually tested an IRBM/ICBM or even scud sized solid yet?

Search for Sajjil and watch the following video.
 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yqf2KFsQmLI&eurl=http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=iran%20solid%20missile%20launch&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:off

More details here:  http://www.janes.com/news/defence/systems/jdw/jdw081114_1_n.shtml

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 02/16/2009 05:12 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline Strato

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #106 on: 02/17/2009 02:37 am »
So why didn't they use GLONASS?

I think there will always be two groups of though on this flight. One that it is an IRBM in an LV's clothing and the other that wish to believe there is nothing sinister and they want to go to the stars and every rocket into Isreal contains a dozen roses.

Short of an IRBM landing in Isreal with a blinding flash or Iran getting rational and tossing all the centrifuges into the persian gulf this arguement will go on forever.

As tested someone needs to convince me that this was not a test of an IRBM without a payload. Use of LOX, or a third stage, or a two burn second stage profile would convince me... All of those would say tailored for use as an LV and not an IRBM, but to date that is not the case.


The Chinese use GPS for their own missiles rather than GLONASS from what i gather. There must be a good reason. Two of them might be tech and hardware are more easily available i would say.





« Last Edit: 02/17/2009 02:43 am by Strato »

Offline hop

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #107 on: 02/17/2009 04:17 am »
I think there will always be two groups of though on this flight. One that it is an IRBM in an LV's clothing and the other that wish to believe there is nothing sinister and they want to go to the stars and every rocket into Isreal contains a dozen roses.
Huh ? There's a lot of room between those positions.  Anyone who's been paying the slightest bit of attention knows Iran has a long range missile program. It's not some deep dark secret, they've broadcast numerous tests on their own state media. Nor is there any reason to doubt that the LV used for this launch is related to the Shahab-3/Nodong/Ghauri family of scud derivatives.

No well informed observer can doubt that this launch was enabled by the missile program, but that doesn't imply this particular launch was "cover" for something. Given a missile program that gets them most of the way, there plenty of reasons for Iran to pursue a satellite launcher.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #108 on: 02/18/2009 02:03 pm »
If you're happy and you know it,
It's your med's!

Offline Zond

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #109 on: 02/25/2009 06:13 pm »
Presentation by the Iranians in english about Omid to the "United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs".
Omid satellite launch report

Offline William Graham

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #110 on: 04/25/2009 11:31 am »
Omid was expected to re-enter at about 04:00 GMT this morning. Has anything been confirmed yet?

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: First Satellite launch by Iran
« Reply #111 on: 04/25/2009 01:28 pm »
Omid was expected to re-enter at about 04:00 GMT this morning. Has anything been confirmed yet?

The Space Track web site is saying that decay was April 25 @ 03:42:00 GMT  +/- 4 hours - a large error bound for a satellite in such a low orbit.
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