Quote from: Blackstar on 12/03/2013 03:58 amQuote from: savuporo on 12/03/2013 02:59 amQuote from: Blackstar on 12/03/2013 02:44 amBut that brings us back to some very fundamental questions, such as what is driving the Chinese lunar program. Is it primarily science? Or is it primarily developing engineering capability? Or is it a near equal mix of both? I would not simply assume that they want to go bigger and bigger, not until we have an idea of why they are doing any of this.IMO these are actually pretty useless questions to ask, and no answers given by the source will ever be believed anyway. Poppycock. That position is just an excuse to not think about the why, just watch the pretty pictures and talk about rockets. It's like saying "Why? Reasons!" Somebody sets the policy in the Chinese space program. And they clearly have a policy, both for human spaceflight, and for their lunar robotic program. This stuff just doesn't happen via immaculate conception. Look at the progression from CE-1 to 2 to 3. Increases in technology, capability, and science goals. What's the driver? Is there a roadmap that says "Do X first, followed by Y, followed by Z"? (They must have some kind of roadmap, otherwise they wouldn't be doing X, Y and then Z.) Do they have a science priorities committee that does this? How does the Chinese space program establish their priorities, and what are those priorities? And who is doing it? Who are the officials who are making the call? Just because we don't know the answers now doesn't mean that there are no answers.For starters, the Chinese Academy of Sciences appears to be involved. That would be a good place to start.And I'd note that the reason I'm asking these questions is that I'm pretty familiar with how it happens in the United States (being directly involved in it). Over here stuff doesn't "just happen," so my guess is that it doesn't just happen in China either.Understanding that is a good step to figuring out what they might do after CE-6.Some history on this, from official Chinese new reports (in Chinese of course)http://news.163.com/13/1201/00/9EVGR1GO00014JB6.htmlSome highlights of the timeline1. Chinese Lunar Exploration Study group was established in 1991 as part of Project 863. (That project itself was started in 1986 headed then by Wang Ganchang to found technology and science programs in China)2. The Study group submitted its conclusions as a feasibility study to the State Council in 19943. Lunar Resource, Exploration and Scientific study group was established in 1998 to come up with a detailed plan of lunar exploration in 2000. 《中国月球资源探测卫星科学目标》From the official "leaks" since, we know the following: The plan sets 3 large phases, with each phase containing 3 major phase. The Large phase are “探” (Probe or Unmanned exploration)、“登” (Walk, or manned exploration)、“驻(住)” (Stay, or Moon base). The first 3 little phase plan, later would become CE1 to CE6.4. In 2000, parts of the plan was published as part of the 2006 white paper on Chinese Space exploration. You can read it here in English.http://www.fas.org/spp/guide/china/wp2006.pdf5. Between 2000 and 2004, a series of working group was established on specific goals, instructions, vehicles etc. And submitted a formal space program for approval.6. The program was approved in 2004, and formally named Chang'e and CLEP was established.7. CE1 completed in 2006, with CE2 starting work in 2006. CE1 launched in 2007, CE2 in 20108. CE3 Started work in 2009, and launched in 2013So the whole thing took 10 years to plan it, without funding to launching a single thing. That's a lot of time to figure out why, how and when. Would love to read the internal memos.
Quote from: savuporo on 12/03/2013 02:59 amQuote from: Blackstar on 12/03/2013 02:44 amBut that brings us back to some very fundamental questions, such as what is driving the Chinese lunar program. Is it primarily science? Or is it primarily developing engineering capability? Or is it a near equal mix of both? I would not simply assume that they want to go bigger and bigger, not until we have an idea of why they are doing any of this.IMO these are actually pretty useless questions to ask, and no answers given by the source will ever be believed anyway. Poppycock. That position is just an excuse to not think about the why, just watch the pretty pictures and talk about rockets. It's like saying "Why? Reasons!" Somebody sets the policy in the Chinese space program. And they clearly have a policy, both for human spaceflight, and for their lunar robotic program. This stuff just doesn't happen via immaculate conception. Look at the progression from CE-1 to 2 to 3. Increases in technology, capability, and science goals. What's the driver? Is there a roadmap that says "Do X first, followed by Y, followed by Z"? (They must have some kind of roadmap, otherwise they wouldn't be doing X, Y and then Z.) Do they have a science priorities committee that does this? How does the Chinese space program establish their priorities, and what are those priorities? And who is doing it? Who are the officials who are making the call? Just because we don't know the answers now doesn't mean that there are no answers.For starters, the Chinese Academy of Sciences appears to be involved. That would be a good place to start.And I'd note that the reason I'm asking these questions is that I'm pretty familiar with how it happens in the United States (being directly involved in it). Over here stuff doesn't "just happen," so my guess is that it doesn't just happen in China either.Understanding that is a good step to figuring out what they might do after CE-6.
Quote from: Blackstar on 12/03/2013 02:44 amBut that brings us back to some very fundamental questions, such as what is driving the Chinese lunar program. Is it primarily science? Or is it primarily developing engineering capability? Or is it a near equal mix of both? I would not simply assume that they want to go bigger and bigger, not until we have an idea of why they are doing any of this.IMO these are actually pretty useless questions to ask, and no answers given by the source will ever be believed anyway.
But that brings us back to some very fundamental questions, such as what is driving the Chinese lunar program. Is it primarily science? Or is it primarily developing engineering capability? Or is it a near equal mix of both? I would not simply assume that they want to go bigger and bigger, not until we have an idea of why they are doing any of this.
Detailed information on the individual instruments will come very soon...
Fairing debris were recovered near Yangfen village (260810N1141906E) Jiangxi province within the announced NOTAMed drop zone(source)
Quote from: Blackstar on 12/03/2013 03:58 amSomebody sets the policy in the Chinese space program. And they clearly have a policy, both for human spaceflight, and for their lunar robotic program. This stuff just doesn't happen via immaculate conception. Policy is never set by a single Somebody unless we are dealing with dictatorship - which China isnt. A good policy decision is a result from inputs of multiple sources ( academia, finance, political leaders, partners etc ) - and it would seem that this is working OK for a Chinese space program. But i get where
Somebody sets the policy in the Chinese space program. And they clearly have a policy, both for human spaceflight, and for their lunar robotic program. This stuff just doesn't happen via immaculate conception.
Making very long term roadmaps in rapidly evolving technology world is not very useful excercise anyway - i would expect they make further decisions once CE-3 has proven itself.
>>>>Do they have a science priorities committee that does this?I sincerely hope not.
Asking the question - how does your space roadmap and policy definition process really work ? is quite different from asking "why are you doing this ?" IMO. First question is interesting for me, too, second one not so much.
Some history on this, from official Chinese new reports (in Chinese of course)http://news.163.com/13/1201/00/9EVGR1GO00014JB6.htmlSome highlights of the timeline1. Chinese Lunar Exploration Study group was established in 1991 as part of Project 863. (That project itself was started in 1986 headed then by Wang Ganchang to found technology and science programs in China)2. The Study group submitted its conclusions as a feasibility study to the State Council in 19943. Lunar Resource, Exploration and Scientific study group was established in 1998 to come up with a detailed plan of lunar exploration in 2000. 《中国月球资源探测卫星科学目标》From the official "leaks" since, we know the following: The plan sets 3 large phases, with each phase containing 3 major phase. The Large phase are “探” (Probe or Unmanned exploration)、“登” (Walk, or manned exploration)、“驻(住)” (Stay, or Moon base). The first 3 little phase plan, later would become CE1 to CE6.4. In 2000, parts of the plan was published as part of the 2006 white paper on Chinese Space exploration. You can read it here in English.http://www.fas.org/spp/guide/china/wp2006.pdf5. Between 2000 and 2004, a series of working group was established on specific goals, instructions, vehicles etc. And submitted a formal space program for approval.6. The program was approved in 2004, and formally named Chang'e and CLEP was established.7. CE1 completed in 2006, with CE2 starting work in 2006. CE1 launched in 2007, CE2 in 20108. CE3 Started work in 2009, and launched in 2013So the whole thing took 10 years to plan it, without funding to launching a single thing. That's a lot of time to figure out why, how and when. Would love to read the internal memos.
Quote from: savuporo on 12/03/2013 04:51 amAsking the question - how does your space roadmap and policy definition process really work ? is quite different from asking "why are you doing this ?" IMO. First question is interesting for me, too, second one not so much.I think the "why" is a very important question, because one of the possible answers for "why are they doing this?" is "because they want to send humans to the Moon."
I think the "why" is a very important question, because one of the possible answers for "why are they doing this?" is "because they want to send humans to the Moon."
Completely uninformed speculation on my part is that it is something more than just F&F... Economic exploitation of the resources
Completely uninformed speculation on my part is that it is something more than just F&F... Economic exploitation of the resources, construction of an industrial base for further economic growth, and taking and holding the high ground. (position atop the Earth's gravity well)... possession and exploitation being the legal way to de facto sovereignty.
Not sure why people are so hung up on some "behind the scenes ulterior motive" like "gaining the high ground in space". I'm sure there are steely eyed missile men also in China, like everywhere else that dream about lazors with sharks on the moon, but this doesn't mean that majority of scientists and engineers working on the program and delivering these current accomplishments have a secret handshake and do an evil laugh every morning when they go to work.
China news reporting debris hit 2 houses, no injuries reported so far.http://www.chinanews.com/tp/hd2011/2013/12-03/272452.shtml
By 3:00 pm on Sunday, over 160,000 people living in 11 townships of the county were evacuated to avoid danger from falling rocket pieces, Zeng said.
Very interesting. CLEP is formally part of CNSA, correct? And formally CNSA-CLEP is the equivalent of the NASA project-management center, and CAST (I assume) has the role of contractor? Or is it still more like the Russian system where the "contractor" does almost everything, with CNSA being a very thin layer? Not very well expressed but hopefully you get what I'm asking.
中国国家航天局是中华人民共和国负责民用航天管理及国际空间合作的政府机构,履行政府相应的管理职责。对航天活动实施行业管理,使其稳定、有序、健康、协调地发展。代表中国政府组织或领导开展航天领域对外交流与合作等活动。
People's Republic of China National Space Administration is the government agency responsible for civil aerospace management and international cooperation in space, corresponding to fulfill the government's management responsibilities. Space activities for the implementation of the industry, making it stable, orderly, healthy and coordinated development. On behalf of the Chinese government, organization or leadership to carry out exchanges and cooperation activities in areas such as aerospace
Both CNSA and CAST are under SASTIND by the way. (Which under the enormously bloated, and obscenely powerful MIIT)
That is a expensive book...
there are lots of open information available, just all in Chinese
I hope this is OK to post. This is a "plan" that was published in a 2010 Chinese paper. The first thread is LEO crewed flight, the second thread is robotic Lunar missions (including the Chang'e orbiter, rover and sample return missions), the third thread is crewed Lunar landings and the fourth thread is the launch vehicle and a propulsive stage. Interestingly, there is an arrow from the sample return mission to the crewed Lunar mission, perhaps indicating that a crewed mission would rendezvous with the samples in Lunar orbit to return them to Earth. If anyone can provide a translated version of this chart, that would be appreciated.