Total Members Voted: 320
Voting closed: 01/19/2017 06:46 pm
On the other side, who the hell voted >35? It is more than anything listed in manifest (notoriously optimistic in itself)!
Quote from: Mader Levap on 01/20/2017 01:13 pmOn the other side, who the hell voted >35? It is more than anything listed in manifest (notoriously optimistic in itself)!As SpaceX should have over 20 cores available this year and they will have three launch sites available for the last few months and they have demonstrated a cadence of a flight per 3 weeks from one launch site, then anything under 17 implies that there will be another launch failure.
As SpaceX should have over 20 cores available this year and they will have three launch sites available for the last few months and they have demonstrated a cadence of a flight per 3 weeks from one launch site, then anything under 17 implies that there will be another launch failure. My conclusion is that most of the votes were from pessimists, despite the reputation for having lots of SpaceX fanboi around, it seems that only one voted
Well --SpaceX has done 2 launches in 6 week. We expect at least another 2 before the end of March. That will be 4 per quarter. I think that I voted for 13. But if SpaceX can keep the rate up the min should be around 16+ for 2017. Now with three pads open starting in the fall - it seems very doable. Time will tell.
QuoteIndustry official: @SpaceX has 7 launches from mid-March (EchoStar 23) to mid-June (@IridiumComm Next No. 2).https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/834877195021615108
Industry official: @SpaceX has 7 launches from mid-March (EchoStar 23) to mid-June (@IridiumComm Next No. 2).
From the Iridium delay to June is the bottle neck in the build or testing of boosters that is limiting launch rate to less than 2 a month. Probably less than 1.5 per month. But after June the launch rate should pick up. So total of launches through end of May will probably be around 6 or 7. But after June at 2 a month the launch total could reach 12 or 13 by end of August. Add another 8 through to the end of year and you get 20 or 21.
Quote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 02/25/2017 10:14 amFrom the Iridium delay to June is the bottle neck in the build or testing of boosters that is limiting launch rate to less than 2 a month. Probably less than 1.5 per month. But after June the launch rate should pick up. So total of launches through end of May will probably be around 6 or 7. But after June at 2 a month the launch total could reach 12 or 13 by end of August. Add another 8 through to the end of year and you get 20 or 21.But, but, this just can't be right. That would mean my prediction was wrong
As of March 19, after 3 orbital flightsNumber of people who were wrong: 2 (0,6%)Number of people who are right at this date: 0 (0,0%)Assuming anything can happend, number of people that could still be right: 318 (99,4%)Maximum number of people that could be right at end of year: 45 (14.1%)