Author Topic: Predictions 2016  (Read 51331 times)

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Predictions 2016
« Reply #40 on: 12/24/2015 01:07 am »
Cancelation of:

• OKA-T2
• Orbital Technologies Commercial Space Station
• Mars One
• Golden Spike
• Inspiration Mars
You misunderstand these sorts of things. They tend to go on forever in "hobby" mode, neither cancelled nor going anywhere.


...BTW, I'm waiting until the 31st to post. Lots of stuff can be announced in the week after a game-changing event (like our successful RTLS of F9 booster, which already pre-empts some peoples' 2016 predictions!).
« Last Edit: 12/24/2015 01:09 am by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Predictions 2016
« Reply #41 on: 12/24/2015 01:17 am »
SpaceX will fly 6-7 times
Falcon Heavy will not be attempted in 2016
Blue Origin will have at least one additional flight
Vulcan Aerospace retools to downplay Stratolaunch and announces new, non-airlaunch plans
XCOR is in the process of being liquidated

God, that's depressing.  ;D

Aiming low so you can't be upset?

1 and 2 are just realistic. 3 is pretty positive. 4 is optimistic from a certain point of view (lots of capital that could be more productively employed). 5 is admittedly pessimistic.
1 isn't realistic. SpaceX had 7 flights this year, the top of your range, even after standing down most of the year due to a failure!  Unless SpaceX has another big failure in the first half of the year (certainly possible, say 10-25% odds), super unlikely they'll get no more than 7 launches.

Vulcan seems to be going in the opposite direction as your prediction: building the aircraft without having a rocket for it.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline yg1968

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Re: Predictions 2016
« Reply #42 on: 12/24/2015 02:43 am »
I predict that VG will get to 100km during a test flight in 2016.

I predict that General Bolden will not be asked to stay on by the new President.

I predict that DC, SpaceX and Orbital will each win a CRS2 contract.

Orbital will have a succesful RTF before the mid-year.

The SpaceX uncrewed demo flight to the ISS will not fly in 2016.

FH will also not fly in 2016.

I predict that the Electron by Rocket Lab will fly its first rocket in 2016.

The F9 will fly once a month.

New Shepard will also fly once a month (test flights).

NEOCam will be selected as a Discovery mission.   
« Last Edit: 01/04/2016 02:21 pm by yg1968 »

Offline Johnnyhinbos

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Re: Predictions 2016
« Reply #43 on: 12/24/2015 03:08 am »

Eric Boe and Suni Williams will be named as the crew for the first Dragon 2 crewed mission.

Chris Ferguson and Bob Behnken will be named as the first CST-100 Starliner crew.
I'm in the Suni fan camp, so she gets my vote. But I am biased...
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

Offline jgoldader

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Re: Predictions 2016
« Reply #44 on: 12/24/2015 06:16 pm »
Fresh from my 5-8 record for this year, here are some very boring predictions.

Compared with 2015, 2016 will, overall, be a boring year for spaceflight. 

Space science-Costs related to the Insight mission delay will postpone next Discovery mission selection; Insight itself might not survive the review for breaking budget caps.  Juno will be a big "meh" for the public as it doesn't have imaging as a major goal.  Major arguments over planetary science budget at NASA.

Commercial spaceflight-One major US loss, at least two Russian losses, all to workmanship issues.  Overall, one failed launch to ISS.  At least one dramatic Falcon landing failure, but several successes; overall return rate of about 75%.  There will be a significant surprise with the upcoming commercial cargo award, causing lots of controversy.

HSF-No big news in HSF, as no US-built capsules will fly into space, but the Boeing and SpaceX capsules continue development.  No major new developments as the lessons from the losses and victories of the last year or so are digested.

Smooth year for SLS as it moves towards 2018 flight.  But concern begins to mount over long-term vision at NASA.  While nothing really changes, though, because of uncertainty around US elections, warning flags will be flying by the end of the year.
Recovering astronomer

Offline Star One

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Predictions 2016
« Reply #45 on: 12/24/2015 11:08 pm »
Fresh from my 5-8 record for this year, here are some very boring predictions.

Compared with 2015, 2016 will, overall, be a boring year for spaceflight. 

Space science-Costs related to the Insight mission delay will postpone next Discovery mission selection; Insight itself might not survive the review for breaking budget caps.  Juno will be a big "meh" for the public as it doesn't have imaging as a major goal.  Major arguments over planetary science budget at NASA.

Commercial spaceflight-One major US loss, at least two Russian losses, all to workmanship issues.  Overall, one failed launch to ISS.  At least one dramatic Falcon landing failure, but several successes; overall return rate of about 75%.  There will be a significant surprise with the upcoming commercial cargo award, causing lots of controversy.

HSF-No big news in HSF, as no US-built capsules will fly into space, but the Boeing and SpaceX capsules continue development.  No major new developments as the lessons from the losses and victories of the last year or so are digested.

Smooth year for SLS as it moves towards 2018 flight.  But concern begins to mount over long-term vision at NASA.  While nothing really changes, though, because of uncertainty around US elections, warning flags will be flying by the end of the year.

Seems rather pessimistic?

Anyway we will still be getting data from both Dawn & New Horizons for a good way into 2016, the same goes for Rosetta.
« Last Edit: 12/24/2015 11:20 pm by Star One »

Offline watermod

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Re: Predictions 2016
« Reply #46 on: 12/26/2015 06:11 am »
As a test launch of a F9-recovered first stage, Elon will add a new 2nd stage and rehabbed used Dragon with extra batteries.   He fills it with all sorts of goodies requested but never approved for ISS and parks it just outside the NO-GO zone of ISS.    Tells the consortium if they will let his used Dragon dock with live media coverage then all the goodies on it are free this one time and he expects quid pro quo certification of used Dragons to ISS in the future.    As the batteries wind down the world gets to see how flexible governments can or can't be.   Either way he gets a PR win.

Offline Ludus

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Re: Predictions 2016
« Reply #47 on: 12/27/2015 03:33 am »
Eric Boe and Suni Williams will be named as the crew for the first Dragon 2 crewed mission.

Chris Ferguson and Bob Behnken will be named as the first CST-100 Starliner crew.

Howard Wolowitz will be named to crew training for SpaceX Dragon2 on Big Bang Theory. Elon Musk will make an appearance in Sheldon's apartment.

Offline jongoff

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Re: Predictions 2016
« Reply #48 on: 12/27/2015 04:56 am »
While I got really lucky with predictions a few years ago, it was apparently a fluke--my predictions were hit or miss for the past year or two. But I'll throw out a few thoughts for 2016:

1- SpaceX will recover several more stages throughout the year, including at least one via barge recovery.
2- SpaceX will successfully hot-fire at least one recovered stage for a full-duration hot-fire, and will have at least one customer signed for a flight on a reused first stage by the end of the year.
3- SpaceX won't get Falcon Heavy flying by year end, but may finally have it at the pad.
4- NASA will award CRS-2 contracts to SpaceX, Orbital, *and* SNC.
5- Blue Origin will fly New Shephard several times more in 2016, and will enter limited commercial service for unmanned payloads. While they may have another booster failure, they'll have enough boosters available that they'll be able to continue operations.
6- Neither XCOR or VG will be flying their suborbital vehicles this year. XCOR will find a way to survive, and make real progress towards Lynx Mk 1 flying, but it still won't have air under its tires by year end. VG will be getting close to having SS2 back into operations by the end of the year.
7- None of the dedicated smallsat launchers will fly this year, though both VG and RocketLabs will be getting close.

I may add a few predictions later this week after I've had more time to think about it.

~Jon

Offline Star One

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Re: Predictions 2016
« Reply #49 on: 12/27/2015 11:06 am »

While I got really lucky with predictions a few years ago, it was apparently a fluke--my predictions were hit or miss for the past year or two. But I'll throw out a few thoughts for 2016:

1- SpaceX will recover several more stages throughout the year, including at least one via barge recovery.
2- SpaceX will successfully hot-fire at least one recovered stage for a full-duration hot-fire, and will have at least one customer signed for a flight on a reused first stage by the end of the year.
3- SpaceX won't get Falcon Heavy flying by year end, but may finally have it at the pad.
4- NASA will award CRS-2 contracts to SpaceX, Orbital, *and* SNC.
5- Blue Origin will fly New Shephard several times more in 2016, and will enter limited commercial service for unmanned payloads. While they may have another booster failure, they'll have enough boosters available that they'll be able to continue operations.
6- Neither XCOR or VG will be flying their suborbital vehicles this year. XCOR will find a way to survive, and make real progress towards Lynx Mk 1 flying, but it still won't have air under its tires by year end. VG will be getting close to having SS2 back into operations by the end of the year.
7- None of the dedicated smallsat launchers will fly this year, though both VG and RocketLabs will be getting close.

I may add a few predictions later this week after I've had more time to think about it.

~Jon

I personally wouldn't bet against VG flying again this year in spite of their troubled recent history.

Offline Dante80

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Re: Predictions 2016
« Reply #50 on: 12/27/2015 12:28 pm »
First time doing this.

SpaceX
9 flights throughout 2016. Many scrubs and/or delays. One partial failure.
More than half of them RTLS/barge successfully.
FH does not fly.
Mars Architecture is unveiled after the SES-9 flight. Musk ridiculed to death by naysayers.
SX gets CRS2, together with Orbital and SNC.
Commercial crew plans from SX get delayed.

ULA
Impeccable year.
Announces Blue as the sole contractor for Vulcan. ARJ goes ballistic and tries everything they can on the political level to change that.
RD-180 ban drama continues, with a lot of back and forth on the political level.

OrbitalAtk
Antares launches, with delays. Good show.
OrbitalAtk bids for ARJ after ULA announces BE-4 contract.

Blue Origin
First human suborbital test of the New Shepard.
Blue announces its plans for a 5 BE-4 engined orbital LV.
Blue announces a strategic partnership with Bigelow Airspace, closing the door to other competitors for a private space station project.

Arianespace
Impeccable year.
Ariane 6 gets canned. Work starts on a methalox LV.

Russia
Another Proton failure.
Vostochny Cosmodrome gets delayed.
Soyuz has a strong year.

China
CZ-5 and CZ-7launch. China unveils plans for a human moon program.A lot of talk in the US about the dates given there, vs the SLS program.

SLS/Orion
No delays.

Misc
Clinton wins the presidency.
3 LV failures during the year.
Greece leaves the eurozone.
Stratolaunch in serious trouble.
EM drive is a joke.
« Last Edit: 12/29/2015 07:36 am by Dante80 »

Offline TakeOff

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Re: Predictions 2016
« Reply #51 on: 12/27/2015 04:35 pm »
I first want to remind of the Spaceshow having open lines EST 3 p.m. this Sunday 27/12 dedicated to annual forecast.

I wouldn't have thought that during a 12 months period (Oct 2014 to Nov 2015) four different private launchers would fail, with one casualty, but then keep on advancing. (Antares, VG SpaceShip, F9, Super Strypi). I think they have and will take care of the problems and come back stronger in 2016. Together with the Russians who have had problem with upgraded Soyuz, Progress, upper stages; as the Chinese slowly but surely advancing. 2015 was a setback, but it doesn't feel like it. Progress has more than kept up with the setbacks.

Offline Nicolas PILLET

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Re: Predictions 2016
« Reply #52 on: 12/28/2015 11:37 am »
Russia
* ILS Proton continues to have much better record than government Proton
* Soyuz 2.1v flies with RD-193
* Russia (either ILS or government) suffers the first launch failure of 2015
* Soyuz-5 doesn't receive official funding

I don't understand why you write this.
- In 2015, there were 8 launches of Proton (4 for ILS, 4 for Government). There was one failure, and it was an ILS flight.
- It is not scheduled that Soyuz-2.1v flies with RD-193 in 2016.
- The budget for Soyuz-5 / Feniks is already approved, even if the amount of money has not been publicly announced yet.
Nicolas PILLET
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Offline Nicolas PILLET

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Re: Predictions 2016
« Reply #53 on: 12/28/2015 11:42 am »
Vostochny Cosmodrome gets delayed even further.
Soyuz remains strong.

Vostochny is very unlikely to be delayed, since they are already making final testing. This 8-year project only suffered a four months delay, so you should not use the word "even" further...

Soyuz suffered two failures in 2015, so you should write "Soyuz becomes strong again", instead of "Soyuz remains strong" !
Nicolas PILLET
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Offline Avron

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Re: Predictions 2016
« Reply #54 on: 12/28/2015 12:26 pm »
We finally get to see FH on pad, if by mid year then a launch by year end of FH
We see landings at both coasts and Bargex landings from 10 falcons
We see more getting excited in Skylon, but fail to see an engine that runs on compressed air , not lox but air .
« Last Edit: 12/28/2015 12:27 pm by Avron »

Offline kevinof

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Predictions 2016
« Reply #55 on: 12/28/2015 12:38 pm »
1. Spacex will refly  at least one reused F9
2. Dragon 2 will make great strides in powered landing
3. BO:  Maybe first manned sub orbital
4. Others... Business as usual (ULA  and Ariane all successful) but nothing startling or innovative.
« Last Edit: 12/28/2015 12:38 pm by kevinof »

Offline Kryten

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Re: Predictions 2016
« Reply #56 on: 12/28/2015 02:59 pm »
- The budget for Soyuz-5 / Feniks is already approved, even if the amount of money has not been publicly announced yet.
Is it confirmed to be in the final version of the FKA plan? I haven't seen mention of it since the ruble crash and resulting rewrite. The rest were carry-overs from last year, I'll rewrite them before the end of the year.
« Last Edit: 12/28/2015 03:00 pm by Kryten »

Offline Nicolas PILLET

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Re: Predictions 2016
« Reply #57 on: 12/28/2015 03:23 pm »
- The budget for Soyuz-5 / Feniks is already approved, even if the amount of money has not been publicly announced yet.
Is it confirmed to be in the final version of the FKA plan? I haven't seen mention of it since the ruble crash and resulting rewrite. The rest were carry-overs from last year, I'll rewrite them before the end of the year.

http://tass.ru/kosmos/2548908
Nicolas PILLET
Kosmonavtika : The French site on Russian Space

Offline Escapist

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Re: Predictions 2016
« Reply #58 on: 12/31/2015 06:18 pm »
So, new to this but I'll take a few guesses.

SpaceX
Will launch 12 times, matching ULA's cadence for 2015. Will recover 8 cores.
At least one will be a barge landing.
There will be no successful recovery on a west coast launch.
Maiden flight of a reused stage will occur, and it will not carry a client payload. It will successfully be recovered again.
Falcon Heavy will launch in Q4 and only one core will be recovered
Details will be released about Raptor and MCT, concurrently with new Space Suit design

NASA
Insight is put on permanent hiatus as budget is re-allocated to habitat development
SLS gets another announced mission for late 2020s
NASA books a Falcon Heavy for an announced Mars mission of some sort
SLS & Orion continue, but not major progress is made
NASA officially announces it is done with the ISS following its current contract

Other US Launchers
ULA continues to have successes, but has less contracts signed due to pricing competitiveness
Orbital has 2 launches
Blue Origin re-uses one New Sheperd to relaunch up to 100km

Offline dror

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Re: Predictions 2016
« Reply #59 on: 12/31/2015 06:27 pm »
2 hours till new year - in 2016
Two discovery class missions will be announced.
A RFI for Comercial Space Station will be published as a preparation for a CSS development contract.
Two CRS2 winers. The same ones.
Junu lives.
SLS, Orion and other mars fallacies continue to drain Nasa's thin budget while nothing is directed toward Aces, Jupiter, RLVs, Atlast, Jupiter, depots and such.
A fusion drive breakthrough is announced.
A new best yet earthlike exoplanet is found.
Two smallsat launcher debuts. One of which is electron.
Blue Origin breaks ground at KSC and launches 6 or so suborbital flights with no crew yet. Graditum slowly.
Airbus advances with first 10 oneweb sats and a new satellite factory breaks ground at US.
Planetary Resources lanches another technology demonstrator. No harvest moon yet.
Amos 5 launches successfully on falcon 9, Amos C and Venus advances.
SpaceX announces Mars plans which I find absurd. But after reading a few NSF pages I'm totally sold for it.
They launch 13, recover more than half and relaunch one orbital. Reused cores will no longer be the rarest of beasts as this year ends as storage will start limit recovery efforts.
Dragonfly will be the best of sights this year and the term BPL will be cited by a SpaceXer.
 May the force be with us !
Space is hard immensely complex and high risk !

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