Because two meteoroids reached earth vicinity, one strike and one near-miss on the same day, does that change the calculation of the probability of an impact on earth in the future?
Considering how different the orbits are, if it is, it happened a very very long time ago and had it's orbit altered greatly. More likely they both came from different parent bodies.Do we know the composition of DA14? If they are not the same, that would be a clincher.
Clearly, if you have two objects hit or nearly hit within a short timeframe (a day or so) and appear to be completely independent events, then it is much more likely your calculation of the probability was wrong than that you just experienced an event not likely to happen within a trillion times the age of the Universe.
That's a common misconception about statistics
Assuming that the hole in the ice sheet of Lake Cherbakul was produced by a fragment of the meteoroid is also a very important hypothesis of this work. More importantly, our conclusions relies strongly onto assume that the direction of the trajectory of the fragment responsible for the breaking of the ice sheet in the Lake, is essentially the same as the direction of the parent body. It could be not the case. After the explosion and fragmentation of the meteoroid fragments could acquire different velocities and fall affecting areas far from the region wher we expect to find.
I don't think we can rule out that the meteor and asteroid are not unrelated just because it's too much of a coincidence that they both happened on about the same day.
Sorry, here's the link:http://arxiv.org/pdf/1302.5377v1.pdfThese guys didn't use satellite data. Perhaps you have a link to the study you're referring to?
I think they have also more or less confirmed that the hole in the lake is indeed from A meteorite. Unless of course, there was yet _another_ meteorite that also struck that lake in the same time period. They found meteoric fragments all around the hole.
After all, I thought divers were unable to find any meteorite fragments there...
Quote from: pippin on 03/22/2013 12:11 amThat's a common misconception about statisticsI doubt Robotbeat is suffering from the misconception you describe!
Quote from: Robotbeat on 03/21/2013 04:22 pmClearly, if you have two objects hit or nearly hit within a short timeframe (a day or so) and appear to be completely independent events, then it is much more likely your calculation of the probability was wrong than that you just experienced an event not likely to happen within a trillion times the age of the Universe.No, sorry, this is wrong. This would be a single event and would have zero effect on your calculation....