Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2014?

1
2 (0.4%)
2
0 (0%)
3
0 (0%)
4
16 (3.2%)
5
23 (4.7%)
6
78 (15.8%)
7
87 (17.6%)
8
111 (22.5%)
9
66 (13.4%)
10
68 (13.8%)
11
12 (2.4%)
12 or more
31 (6.3%)

Total Members Voted: 494

Voting closed: 01/19/2014 10:57 pm


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014  (Read 453144 times)

Offline deltaV

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #20 on: 12/21/2013 03:22 am »
Let's make the "12" option be "12 or more" and the "1" option be "1 or less" so all options are covered.

Offline mr. mark

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #21 on: 12/21/2013 03:33 am »
I'm picking 6 on the conservative side. Maybe 7 or 8 but, really guys and girls that's stretching it. Look at it this way. They ALMOST got to 4 launches in 2013. SpaceX achieved 3 launches. They have to still do the pad abort and the in flight abort in 2014 as well. That's why I picked 6 launches not counting the in flight abort.

Offline averagespacejoe

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #22 on: 12/21/2013 04:32 am »
I am going to vote for 6 they might push 7 and that would be great but I would happy with them doubling their annual launch rate.

Offline sdsds

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #23 on: 12/21/2013 04:35 am »
I like this logic:

Thaicom 6 is a given.
CRS3 might get pushed back a bit.
Orbcomm #1 will probably launch in 2014.
Turkmensat -- SpaceX isn't going to let this one default to Ariane V.
Asiasat 8 and Thaicom 7 -- unless something drastic happens, I don't see any reason these would get pushed to 2015
CRS4 will definitely happen in 2014, CRS5 probably late in the year, and I think CRS6 will move to 2015.

But I also like this bit:
They have to still do the pad abort and the in flight abort in 2014 as well.

So I'm leaning towards seven launches that would count for the purpose of this poll. But I'm not voting yet; something might happen between now and the time Thaicom 6 reaches orbit!
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Offline Sesquipedalian

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #24 on: 12/21/2013 04:54 am »
Sure, but who cares what definition is picked, as long as it's specified beforehand (and he DID specify beforehand).

Well, obviously, I care.

Specifying it beforehand mitigates the issue, though.  If it's unspecified, then it's perfectly reasonable to argue EST rather than UTC.  But if he sets his own rules in the post that contains the poll, then it becomes a poll according to his new rules, whether they're logical or not.

For instance, tigerade is also wrong to exclude the launch abort test from the list of launches, but he clearly lists that as a rule in his post rather than using an unspoken assumption.  So what he's really polling is not "number of SpaceX launches in 2014", but rather "number of SpaceX launches in 2014 excluding the launch abort test".

Offline tigerade

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #25 on: 12/21/2013 05:23 am »
Let's make the "12" option be "12 or more" and the "1" option be "1 or less" so all options are covered.

I think "more than 12" is beyond the likelyhood of unicorns in the flame trench, but I went ahead and edited that in.

Quote from: Sesquipedalian
For instance, tigerade is also wrong to exclude the launch abort test from the list of launches, but he clearly lists that as a rule in his post rather than using an unspoken assumption.  So what he's really polling is not "number of SpaceX launches in 2014", but rather "number of SpaceX launches in 2014 excluding the launch abort test".

I also put in to PM me with any questions/comments/concerns.  Also it shows "orbital flights" in the thread title and the guidelines so it's pretty clear that launch abort tests don't count here. 

Also, with the new launch date as NET January, I think we're out of the woods on the whole UTC vs. EST argument, but I went ahead and put UTC on there.

Again guys, please send me a PM with any concerns on the poll... it gives me more room to address concerns rather than on here.
« Last Edit: 12/21/2013 05:23 am by tigerade »

Online meekGee

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #26 on: 12/21/2013 05:40 am »
This is purely about logistics.   Last year doesn't imply anything, since they were building/modifying pads, changing from F9.0 to F9.1 etc.

This year the Vandenberg pad is under-utilized, but this diverts the burden of FH from the schedule.

So for 12 flights: 2 from Vandenberg, and 10 from CCAFS. This will depend mainly on whether the 3 ISS bound flights and the abort tests hold up traffic.  Since I think they can beat 4-week turn around now, there's still room for in the year for the 7 remaining flights.

This is all assuming (hoping) that there are no mishaps of course.
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Offline Pete

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #27 on: 12/21/2013 05:44 am »
I vote 7.


Assuming no catastrophic failures, and no more than 2 glitches-that-can-be-fixed-but-cause-delays,
I think they will launch 8, but the one for flight abort test doesn't count, so 7.

I would be very surprised if the Falcon Heavy actually comes in on schedule.

I expect to see interesting stuff from GH2.
I expect to see success in first stage recovery & landing, but not actual reuse just yet.

Quite frankly, i expect to see a lot of very interesting stuff happen in the coming year!

Offline hop

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #28 on: 12/21/2013 05:46 am »
Voted 7. Anywhere from 5-8 wouldn't surprise me too much. Less if there is a major failure.

Assuming everything NET Dec in Salo's list will drift into 2015.

Expect Thaicom 6, Spx 3 - Spx 5, and one Orbcomm. No strong opinion on which of the others will fly.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #29 on: 12/21/2013 06:07 am »
I am not so sure more than two Dragons will fly to orbit this year. Three dragons is a lot, given they have lots of other stuff on their plate at that site.

Thaicom 6, Spx-3, Orbcomm twice... Asiasat, Spx-4... I'm not sure what else. That's a LOT of flights in 1year for 1 pad. I haven't seen ANY hardware for Falcon Heavy, yet, so I can't see how that can fly when they haven't even tested its test stand, yet. If they flip conae with Falcon Heavy demo, then I can see 7 flights this year. That is a LOT of flights.

Falcon Heavy is a very big rocket. I need to see parts for it before I go and say it'll fly in 2014.

Only 2 of their flights in 2013 were from the Cape. But some people expect 10 of them next year??? That's a crazy ramp-up. 6 is already stretching it.
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Offline Lars_J

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #30 on: 12/21/2013 06:17 am »
I voted 7...

No real definitive reasononing behind it. They seem to have upped their launch rate, and have a solid manifest. But 7 somehow feels right. I would love to be pleasantly surprised with more.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #31 on: 12/21/2013 06:18 am »
Will vote after Thaicom 6.That should give some indication of the launch tempo.


Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #32 on: 12/21/2013 06:26 am »
I went with 8. F9 1.1 is performing well and has already launched from both Vandenburg and the Cape (so infrastructure is in place). Production is well in-hand, so I think it comes down to how quick SpaceX can move from one launch to the next. I'm optimistic on that because I think SpaceX have already geared-up for it. It's just with infrastructure issues and natural caution, as F9 1.1 has come on-line, that they haven't been able to show what they are capable of.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #33 on: 12/21/2013 06:42 am »
Other big things SpaceX has on it's plate besides strictly orbit launching of rockets:

Falcon Heavy development. Biggest rocket since Shuttle, Buran, N-1, and Saturn V. Basically, biggest rocket developed since the end of the Cold War. And we haven't seen any metal, yet. I think they can do it, but I'm skeptical it'll actually launch this coming year (but within the realm of possibility). Lots of issues could turn up in testing this huge rocket.

Dragon crew development. Pad abort, inflight abort. Huge milestones. Lots and lots of work. In-flight abort is practically an orbital launch.

F9R, aka Grasshopper 2. Testing in McGregor followed by testing in New Mexico. Tremendously exciting work, nearly at the scale of a real orbital launch. May do several flights this year. Also, they're going to try to recover and possibly even reuse the first stages starting with (we hope) Spx-3. This means getting a landing pad approved and ready.

Possibly starting work on LC-39A. Possibly work on the Texas pad.

Possibly work on Raptor.

This is in addition to launching about half a dozen rockets, twice as many as they've ever done before.

Heck, with all that on their plate, "just" 5 flights wouldn't be surprising.

I know they've grown a lot and thus have higher capacity, but this is a LOT of work to get done in one year.
« Last Edit: 12/21/2013 06:44 am by Robotbeat »
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Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #34 on: 12/21/2013 06:50 am »
If the core manufacturing rate is really 12/year now, rising to 18/year mid 2014 and 24/year by end 2014 this implies they will have ~15 cores to launch in 2014. With one core or the launch abort test, one for a GH2 replacement (after it crashes) and 3 for FH this implies ~10 launches to orbit nextyear.

Offline RonM

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #35 on: 12/21/2013 07:03 am »
I voted for 8.

The F9 v1.1 production seems to be going well, but I would expect the December missions to slide into 2015. I'm not sure the FH will be launched in 2014.

Offline Kaputnik

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #36 on: 12/21/2013 09:06 am »
Voted for 5. I think SpaceX will still want to analyse data between launches and there will inevitably be glitches and delays. BTW I voted 3 for 2013.
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Offline rockinghorse

Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #37 on: 12/21/2013 10:18 am »
I am betting that SpaceX will succeed in partial reusability, so I voted for 20±5 launches for the 2014.

Also SpaceX already has the largest production capacity of rockets in the world, therefore I would say that even with expendable rockets they can achieve 12+ launches, so I thought that 12+ is very safe bet.
« Last Edit: 12/21/2013 10:18 am by rockinghorse »

Offline aga

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #38 on: 12/21/2013 10:46 am »
Also SpaceX already has the largest production capacity of rockets in the world
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Offline PerW

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #39 on: 12/21/2013 10:47 am »
I voted for 8.

And I guess successful first stage landing, FH on the pad and one new wild rocket/motor or technique proposal by Musk.  8)

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