Author Topic: Space X Falcon I interim latest  (Read 72101 times)

Offline coach

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Space X Falcon I interim latest
« on: 07/16/2007 07:01 pm »
The launch manifest on SpaceX's website has two more launches scheduled for 2007.  One in Q3 and one in Q4.  Normally, they announce a launch date several months ahead of time and seeing how Q3 ends in 10 weeks it's starting to look doubtful for them to be on time.  I hope they prove me wrong.

http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php

Coach

Edit: James Lowe - This is not the next launch update thread. We'll set that up nearer the time. This can be an interim thread.

Offline hyper_snyper

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Re: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #1 on: 07/16/2007 07:26 pm »
According to the following story on SFN, they're looking at an attempt in November...
 
http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0706/17spacex/

Offline coach

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Re: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #2 on: 07/16/2007 07:31 pm »
"SpaceX plans to launch their third Falcon 1 rocket no earlier than November, followed by a fourth mission early next year,..."

Thanks hyper, I guess the website hasn't been updated.  I believe we were also promised an F9 static fire this year, too.  We'll see.  I look forward to November.  I really hope they can launch more than once a year.  I like their patience, but I don't have as much as they do.


Coach

Offline reubenb

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Re: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #3 on: 07/17/2007 06:40 pm »
hmm... maybe I shouldn't have rushed to buy their stock on the Popsci Predictions Exchange :)

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #4 on: 07/17/2007 07:43 pm »
Quote
hyper_snyper - 16/7/2007  2:26 PM

According to the following story on SFN, they're looking at an attempt in November...
 
http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0706/17spacex/

Interesting trend.  This will make the third consecutive year that SpaceX will have begun a launch campaign around the Thanksgiving holiday period.  The previous two campaigns extended into the following year....

 - Ed Kyle

Offline Launch Fan

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Re: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #5 on: 07/17/2007 09:46 pm »
This is not the third attempt. The last attempt was successful!

Offline William Graham

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Re: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #6 on: 07/17/2007 09:58 pm »
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Launch Fan - 17/7/2007  10:46 PM

This is not the third attempt. The last attempt was successful!

That depends on how you define success. If you define success as reaching space, and completing 85-90% of mission objectives, but failing to orbit, then yes, but if I had a £10m satellite bound for LEO sitting atop a rocket which flew up to 300km and then fell back to Earth, having failed to orbit, I think I would view the situation very differently. It's like throwing a dart at the bullseye on a dartboard, and saying you were successful because you hit the board - ignoring the fact that the dart ended up in the treble-one.

And regardless of that, it is still their third launch.

Offline halkey

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Re: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #7 on: 07/18/2007 12:01 am »
But SpaceX didn't have a high value payload sitting aboard the last launch because they just wanted to shake the bugs out of their vehicle and they learned some valuable lessons which will help make their launcher more reliable in the future.  I don't see why people always have to try, judge, and execute SpaceX based on a test launch which was meant to shake out the bugs.  Their vehicle showed a lot of potential and I'd be willing to bet that the next launch is successful with the upgrades they do to prevent what happened during the test launches.

Offline simonbp

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Re: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #8 on: 07/18/2007 05:26 am »
Two well-diagnosed failures are much better than no launches at all, which is what pretty much every other "alt.space" has accomplished...

Simon ;)

Offline bad_astra

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Re: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #9 on: 07/18/2007 09:47 pm »
The fact that they ARE taking the time to resolve the issues on the last launch is encouraging. That static fire of the Falcon 9 would be interesting, though.
"Contact Light" -Buzz Aldrin

Offline khallow

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Re: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #10 on: 07/18/2007 09:49 pm »
Launch Fan, please stop being mean to us. :-) I grant that my own description of the last SpaceX launch as a "partial success" (or was it "partial failure"?) may have due to judgement colored by excessive enthusiasm. At least, it was a useful failure. They got a list of things to fix on both stages.

We'll see what happens when they get back to the launch pad.
Karl Hallowell

Offline guidanceisgo

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Re: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #11 on: 07/19/2007 04:16 am »
Pretty interesting timing of the launch.  Usually, when you get to the Thanksgiving break, you run up against range closures pretty quick.  Any little problem can make you end up in February or March.  Are they clearly on the range schedule for November, or is this just a politically correct  way to say February?

Offline Avron

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Re: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #12 on: 07/19/2007 04:55 am »
Quote
guidanceisgo - 18/7/2007  12:16 AM

Pretty interesting timing of the launch.  Usually, when you get to the Thanksgiving break, you run up against range closures pretty quick.  Any little problem can make you end up in February or March.  Are they clearly on the range schedule for November, or is this just a politically correct  way to say February?

Yip.. like launching STS in the summer in late afternoon...

But a launch will happen in that timeframe. Thats 100% risk higher that the other players who don't .. and have zero Failures..

On failures if the primary "need" of a mission is achieved, and the secondary objectives are not - then mission/launch cannot be a failure. and yes Attempt #3 is valid if the need to orbit.

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #13 on: 07/19/2007 02:09 pm »
Quote
bad_astra - 18/7/2007  4:47 PM

The fact that they ARE taking the time to resolve the issues on the last launch is encouraging. That static fire of the Falcon 9 would be interesting, though.

Not a peep of news about that.  This past spring, Elon said that the test firing effort would begin during the "early summer", leading to a full-up firing in the fall.  The first Falcon 9 launch is still shown as 2008 Q2.  Seems unlikely at present.  The Falcon 1 experience suggests that 2010 might be more realistic.

- Ed Kyle

Offline coach

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Re: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #14 on: 07/19/2007 03:43 pm »
EdKyle, I'm afraid you're right.  Does Elon and the others know that we hang on their every word and promise they make?  

I would love to see a written road map, a technological plan to for the company to adhere to.  They may not make all the deadlines, that's business but concrete goals rather than interview soundbites and promises carry more weight.  If they fail to meet an objective, then explain yourself beforehand.  This F9 static fire situation is not over, they still have time to make it happen but I'd love to hear one way or the other.  The F1 launches have a similar track record.  It is their business and they have a right to run it however they like.  In reality, it's only SpaceX's opinion that counts.  If they are successful with F1 and F9 by 2010 despite the setbacks, it is still an amazing accomplishment.  I'm just impatient and greedy for information.


Coach

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #15 on: 07/19/2007 04:13 pm »
I hope that SpaceX is keeping its summer interns busy down in McGregor!

"ESMD  Summer 2007 Internship Project:
Rocket Engine Development Testing for a New Launch Vehicle
No experience is required"

http://www.ae.uiuc.edu/ISGC/esmd/rocket-engine.html

 - Ed Kyle

Offline Crispy

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Re: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #16 on: 07/19/2007 04:31 pm »
Awesome opportunity :)

Offline guidanceisgo

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Re: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #17 on: 07/25/2007 04:41 am »
Quote
Avron - 18/7/2007  11:55 PM

Quote
guidanceisgo - 18/7/2007  12:16 AM

Pretty interesting timing of the launch.  Usually, when you get to the Thanksgiving break, you run up against range closures pretty quick.  Any little problem can make you end up in February or March.  Are they clearly on the range schedule for November, or is this just a politically correct  way to say February?

Yip.. like launching STS in the summer in late afternoon...

But a launch will happen in that timeframe. Thats 100% risk higher that the other players who don't .. and have zero Failures..

On failures if the primary "need" of a mission is achieved, and the secondary objectives are not - then mission/launch cannot be a failure. and yes Attempt #3 is valid if the need to orbit.

Not sure where your going with that one.  Historically, the holidays are a tough time to get a launch off.  The track record of Falcon 1 around the holidays speaks for itself.

Offline Avron

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Re: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #18 on: 07/26/2007 04:43 am »
Quote
guidanceisgo - 25/7/2007  12:41 AM

Quote
Avron - 18/7/2007  11:55 PM

Quote
guidanceisgo - 18/7/2007  12:16 AM

Pretty interesting timing of the launch.  Usually, when you get to the Thanksgiving break, you run up against range closures pretty quick.  Any little problem can make you end up in February or March.  Are they clearly on the range schedule for November, or is this just a politically correct  way to say February?

Yip.. like launching STS in the summer in late afternoon...

But a launch will happen in that timeframe. Thats 100% risk higher that the other players who don't .. and have zero Failures..

On failures if the primary "need" of a mission is achieved, and the secondary objectives are not - then mission/launch cannot be a failure. and yes Attempt #3 is valid if the need to orbit.

Not sure where your going with that one.  Historically, the holidays are a tough time to get a launch off.  The track record of Falcon 1 around the holidays speaks for itself.

What I am saying is its funny how these things happen at these times in the year.. (risk of delay is not reduced).. thus resulting in a .. EH given track record.

Summers are not great times to launch out of Florida in the afternoon .. too much WX TS.. but elsewhere targeting  holidays or around these time, makes for an easy out in terms of delays.. its easy to explain a delay.. maybe there is a business reason to target these time, outside of other options on the table .. say no one else is using the range.. (but then no-one  home to man the range.. net result is delay due to range issues.. easy out..  gain more time??

Offline William Graham

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RE: Space X Falcon I Attempt #3
« Reply #19 on: 07/27/2007 03:35 pm »
Quote
coach - 16/7/2007  8:01 PM

The launch manifest on SpaceX's website has two more launches scheduled for 2007.  One in Q3 and one in Q4.  Normally, they announce a launch date several months ahead of time and seeing how Q3 ends in 10 weeks it's starting to look doubtful for them to be on time.  I hope they prove me wrong.


http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php


Coach

Nothing from SpaceX yet, but CalPoly, who are contracting CubeSats for the 4th (Razaksat) launch, have the launch listed as Spring 2008 - http://cubesat.atl.calpoly.edu/pages/missions/falcon-1-launch-1.php

So I think they will probably only launch TacSat this year, if anything (excluding the Demo).

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