What types of industries could develop an export economy on Mars?Mining? Ship building? Pharmaceuticals?Recreation?Defense?
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The miraculous Earth provided air, large bodies of fresh water, a diverse eco-system, and obtainable sources of nourishment, clothing and protection from the elements. Mars will have none of those things (until terra-forming over a millennia).
Near instantaneous death will lurk at every turn, as man-made support systems are relied upon.
Notwithstanding the perhaps trillions of dollars coming exclusively from Earth that it will cost to get a million people to Mars over the next 100 years, at some point Martians will have to pay their own way on planet. They will need to farm food, water and air; generate energy from local resources; isolate and stockpile raw materials to be used in industry; provide recreational facilities; and provide for basic human services such as medical care and child education.Early immigrants will undoubtedly be employees of the first colonial organization, in a way perhaps similar to the Hudson Bay Company or East India Company. For sake of argument, let's say this organization is SpaceX. An outpost economy will form around work to start mining water and CO2 for fuel. Initially, basic necessities, such as room and board, will be pre-allocated on Earth, purhaps included with the ticket purchase price. A commissary would likely be set up to provide luxury goods, paid for with credits obtained through work. Some may work harder, some may value more free time. A private economy will develop. From this, the Martian banking industry will develop.For the long-term foreseeable future, Mars will be resource poor, with respect to Earth. What if more goods are needed then originally in the budget. Mars could ask for charity from Earth, but is that sustainable? Probably not for long.What types of exports back to Earth could Mars produce in trade? Is there anything more than speculation about the abundance of rare earth materials on the surface of the Red Planet? Robert Zubrin says a likely candidate is Deuterium, a key hydrogen isotope used in both fusion and fission reactors. http://www.nss.org/settlement/mars/zubrin-colonize.htmlLooking back at frontier mining towns or even new oil-boom communities, a chief driver of getting people to uproot and move is to find suitable employment. How do you get one million people to Mars? Develop an industry that creates a shortage of labor. This may not be detailed in Elon Musk's specific plan, but it is likely to be vital for hopes of colonizing Mars.What types of industries could develop an export economy on Mars?Mining? Ship building? Pharmaceuticals?Recreation?Defense?Mark Eagon
Mars is not quite like the New World where an abundance of natural resources were available that could readily be used in Europe, like gold, silver, lumber, new agricultural products.
I think the practically only thing Mars can offer is a place where scientists can perform human and animal experiments without jurisdiction that bans them.Cyborg technology, genetically modified humans etc.
You seem to think that the settlement will be more or less self sufficient fairly quickly. That is a long way from most peoples view. It takes a very complex supply chain to support a complex environment, and Mars is a very complex environment. For example LED lights are efficient and flexible, but they are also very complicated to mfg (much more so than plain Silicon transistors).
In my opinion, the first product, if you want to call it that way, will be martian rocks. Means: everyone who is collecting rocks will want to have a small martian rock. The problem is: this market isn't very large, and the prices might be beyond 100.000$ per kg (own 1g of martian rock for just 100$). Later, people will want to have rocks from certain areas of Mars (samples from Vallis Marineris, or Olympus Mons, etc), which will require more work-force to be dedicated to that. The only way I can see to do that with minimal dedicated workforce: do it while doing long term surface explorations. Just pick up half a ton of material instead of a few kilogramm.Later on, when the resource produduction on Mars is running, there might be valuable side products. Like copper production on Mars, with platinum etc as a side-product. The best metals for that export are metals that are very expensive on Earth, and furthermore, which require a very messy extraction process. Rare Earth Elements are such an export-good.There is something else that can be done by Mars: Exporting goods doesn't necessarily mean that they have to go to a place where these goods are abundand. Maybe they can go to the asteroid belt, when humanity tries to bootstrap a colony over there?Ceres has a 2,5:1 orbital ratio to Mars. That's not terribly bad. Especially if there are more than just Ceres as destination. And these asteroid-colonies will require literally everything, especially the goods that Mars has to produce to keep everything alive (like water, air, etc).
Even if everything is more expensive on Mars, it can still make a bit of money trading to earth.It might take 10 man hours to make a product on mars and ship it to earth.That same product might cost one man hour on earth and sell for one earth dollar.This still means that you can turn 10 man hours on mars into $1 on earth, to buy an earth product that would cost infinity on mars (ie you just can't make it there yet) .. a good deal for everybody.
Quote from: Hotblack DesiatoCeres has a 2,5:1 orbital ratio to Mars. That's not terribly bad. Especially if there are more than just Ceres as destination. And these asteroid-colonies will require literally everything, especially the goods that Mars has to produce to keep everything alive (like water, air, etc).
Ceres has a 2,5:1 orbital ratio to Mars. That's not terribly bad. Especially if there are more than just Ceres as destination. And these asteroid-colonies will require literally everything, especially the goods that Mars has to produce to keep everything alive (like water, air, etc).
The first permanent residents on Mars after scientists and engineers are likely to be in the hospitality industry, repleat with housekeepers and chefs: the blue collar backbone of a new society.
Thank you for your very reasoned response. I do not believe Mars can achieve full sustainability for a millennium or more.
I also do not believe a sustained presence on the planet can exist upon the good graces of Earthbound humanity, simply wishing to have an insurance policy against catastrophe.
If a Mars colony is to thrive and even consider the immense prospect of terraforming the atmosphere to Earth-like conditions, some form of commerce must be developed to bring needed resources to bare. High-minded ideals might get SpaceX to Mars before NASA and "Boeing", but the colony will not exist beyond a few pods without trade with Earth.
Perhaps, THE EXPANSE has it right and Earth's best engineers go to Mars and establish the modern Detroit and Stuttgart, building second to none space ships that are purchased from the home planet. Maybe, fusionable materials will be found in such quantities that all other sources of energy become obsolete. Either way, someone is going to have to convince a disparate population of space explorers that there will be a future on Mars that is better than that on Earth or no one will be willing to go there for any other reason than their funeral.My hope with this thread is to pose plausible economies that might inspire future investment and generate expanded interest in a Mars Colony. While this topic has been discussed at many levels starting with Mars Direct, I wonder if a fresh look now is not justified, seeing as SpaceX has finally provided a credible start to colonization. The Raptor test stand in McGregor attests to the BFR as more than a Power Point rocket: now maybe is the time to really consider how a colony can begin.
BTW A lot of this has been discussed during 3 previous threads. Unfortunately the most productive one was locked and taken off line. It has never been restored. An awful lot of this discussion has already taken place.
Quote from: hkultala on 12/11/2017 03:04 pmI think the practically only thing Mars can offer is a place where scientists can perform human and animal experiments without jurisdiction that bans them.Cyborg technology, genetically modified humans etc.Wrong. Any base or settlement will be subject to the laws of the nation the launch vehicle is hosted by, probably the US.The idea that it will be in some kind of "Regulatory Black hole" is simply wrong.
Quote from: john smith 19 on 12/11/2017 03:09 pmWrong. Any base or settlement will be subject to the laws of the nation the launch vehicle is hosted by, probably the US.The idea that it will be in some kind of "Regulatory Black hole" is simply wrong.Any basis for these claims?Agreement Governing the Activities of States on the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies says they are like international waters, but only few nations have ratified this treaty.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_Treaty
Wrong. Any base or settlement will be subject to the laws of the nation the launch vehicle is hosted by, probably the US.The idea that it will be in some kind of "Regulatory Black hole" is simply wrong.