Author Topic: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION  (Read 786492 times)

Offline meekGee

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #1620 on: 01/23/2018 02:45 am »
Up until now all of the bad-mouthing and rumor propagation came from politicians and organizations that are not necessarily aligned with NG.

It was more of trying to drag this into the larger SpaceX vs. saga.

NG were absolutely silent, as they should be, given the nature of the mission.

Now with this latest statement from the AF, the right thing for NG to do is simply issue a "thank you for the ride" statement and end this stupid saga.
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline QuantumG

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #1621 on: 01/23/2018 04:15 am »
Notice that Bloomberg is saying very definitively that the satellite was lost.

The headline is, but that's written by an editor - so you know what that's worth. The more interesting part of this article is:

Quote
Lieutenant General Arnold Bunch, the Air Force’s top uniformed acquisition official, said in a separate interview, “I can’t say a whole lot about what all happened” but for “anything that goes forward” in terms of a formal investigation “we’ll be involved in the process” of analyzing data.

I read that as saying this wasn't an Air Force bird.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline jpo234

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #1622 on: 01/23/2018 08:16 am »
Yaay @IridumBoss... the best companies have customers that go to bat for them, because they get great service from them.

Has anybody checked, whether the @StarlinkBoss handle has been reserved? And by whom?
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Offline su27k

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #1623 on: 01/23/2018 09:24 am »
More good news:

SpaceX gets good news from the Air Force on the Zuma mission

Quote
"Based on the data available, our team did not identify any information that would change SpaceX's Falcon 9 certification status," Lieutenant General John Thompson, commander of the Space and Missile Systems Center, told Bloomberg News. This qualified conclusion came after a preliminary review of data from the Zuma launch. That's according to Thompson, who said the Air Force will continue to review data from all launches.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/01/spacex-gets-good-news-from-the-air-force-on-the-zuma-mission/

I'm not sure this qualifies as good news though, the AF simply said there's no change to F9's certification status, but would the certification status change if there's a failure? I would assume the answer is no, you don't get kicked out of the NSS club for a failure. So it seems to me this statement doesn't carry any useful information.

Offline SimonFD

More good news:

SpaceX gets good news from the Air Force on the Zuma mission

Quote
"Based on the data available, our team did not identify any information that would change SpaceX's Falcon 9 certification status," Lieutenant General John Thompson, commander of the Space and Missile Systems Center, told Bloomberg News. This qualified conclusion came after a preliminary review of data from the Zuma launch. That's according to Thompson, who said the Air Force will continue to review data from all launches.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/01/spacex-gets-good-news-from-the-air-force-on-the-zuma-mission/

I'm not sure this qualifies as good news though, the AF simply said there's no change to F9's certification status, but would the certification status change if there's a failure? I would assume the answer is no, you don't get kicked out of the NSS club for a failure. So it seems to me this statement doesn't carry any useful information.

I would say it certainly isn't bad news for SpaceX.
Here we have what the public could see as an endorsement of SpaceX by an entity in-the-know (even if they're not).
Time is an illusion. Lunchtime doubly so

Offline jpo234

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #1625 on: 01/23/2018 10:13 am »
I'm not sure this qualifies as good news though, the AF simply said there's no change to F9's certification status, but would the certification status change if there's a failure? I would assume the answer is no, you don't get kicked out of the NSS club for a failure. So it seems to me this statement doesn't carry any useful information.

The original Bloomberg article says more. The quote is:

Quote
"Based on the data available, our team did not identify any information that would change SpaceX’s Falcon 9 certification status” after “a preliminary review of telemetry that was available to us”

I interpret this as "we looked at the data and there was nothing wrong". If something had been wrong, the quote would have qualifiers like "Based on the data we evaluate the consequences for the certification status" or something like this.
« Last Edit: 01/23/2018 10:23 am by jpo234 »
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Offline woods170

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #1626 on: 01/23/2018 11:20 am »
More good news:

SpaceX gets good news from the Air Force on the Zuma mission

Quote
"Based on the data available, our team did not identify any information that would change SpaceX's Falcon 9 certification status," Lieutenant General John Thompson, commander of the Space and Missile Systems Center, told Bloomberg News. This qualified conclusion came after a preliminary review of data from the Zuma launch. That's according to Thompson, who said the Air Force will continue to review data from all launches.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/01/spacex-gets-good-news-from-the-air-force-on-the-zuma-mission/

I'm not sure this qualifies as good news though, the AF simply said there's no change to F9's certification status, but would the certification status change if there's a failure? I would assume the answer is no, you don't get kicked out of the NSS club for a failure. So it seems to me this statement doesn't carry any useful information.

Emphasis mine.

Your assessment is correct. Remember when AMOS-6 happened? Guess what the Air Force stated two weeks later:

http://spacenews.com/falcon-9-accident-wont-affect-air-force-certification/

And that most certainly was a F9 failure.

So basically, this latest statement from USAF does nothing to exonerate Falcon 9.

Online JamesH65

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #1627 on: 01/23/2018 01:09 pm »
More good news:

SpaceX gets good news from the Air Force on the Zuma mission

Quote
"Based on the data available, our team did not identify any information that would change SpaceX's Falcon 9 certification status," Lieutenant General John Thompson, commander of the Space and Missile Systems Center, told Bloomberg News. This qualified conclusion came after a preliminary review of data from the Zuma launch. That's according to Thompson, who said the Air Force will continue to review data from all launches.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/01/spacex-gets-good-news-from-the-air-force-on-the-zuma-mission/

I'm not sure this qualifies as good news though, the AF simply said there's no change to F9's certification status, but would the certification status change if there's a failure? I would assume the answer is no, you don't get kicked out of the NSS club for a failure. So it seems to me this statement doesn't carry any useful information.

Emphasis mine.

Your assessment is correct. Remember when AMOS-6 happened? Guess what the Air Force stated two weeks later:

http://spacenews.com/falcon-9-accident-wont-affect-air-force-certification/

And that most certainly was a F9 failure.

So basically, this latest statement from USAF does nothing to exonerate Falcon 9.

It doesn't need exonerating. It worked to the specification. This is the only public fact.

Offline AC in NC

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #1628 on: 01/23/2018 02:07 pm »
So basically, this latest statement from USAF does nothing to exonerate Falcon 9.
It doesn't need exonerating. It worked to the specification. This is the only public fact.

If you are going to be this picky, then it's not a public fact that it worked to specification.  It's the only un-rebutted public assertion.  Conclusion:  Don't be that picky.  His point about what you can take away from the AF statement is reasonable and doesn't need to be challenged.

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #1629 on: 01/23/2018 05:17 pm »
So much for 'self-insurance':
Quote
SpaceX Lost Satellite on U.S. Mission Was Uninsured
Quote
“The policy of the U.S. government has been that they do not buy insurance. They rely on the taxpayer to foot the bill when things go wrong.”

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2018/01/23/478112.htm

Edit: added reference
« Last Edit: 01/23/2018 05:29 pm by AncientU »
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Offline abaddon

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #1630 on: 01/23/2018 05:19 pm »
So much for 'self-insurance':
Quote
SpaceX Lost Satellite on U.S. Mission Was Uninsured
Quote
“The policy of the U.S. government has been that they do not buy insurance. They rely on the taxpayer to foot the bill when things go wrong.”
Not sure why the confusion, that's exactly what self-insurance means.

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #1631 on: 01/23/2018 05:30 pm »
So much for 'self-insurance':
Quote
SpaceX Lost Satellite on U.S. Mission Was Uninsured
Quote
“The policy of the U.S. government has been that they do not buy insurance. They rely on the taxpayer to foot the bill when things go wrong.”
Not sure why the confusion, that's exactly what self-insurance means.

Quote
Self-insure is a method of managing risk by setting aside a pool of money to be used if an unexpected loss occurs. Theoretically, one can self-insure against any type of loss. However, in practice, most people choose to buy insurance against potentially large, infrequent losses.

Lacking the foresight to set aside this pool of money is called 'no insurance'
« Last Edit: 01/23/2018 05:33 pm by AncientU »
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Offline abaddon

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #1632 on: 01/23/2018 05:39 pm »
Lacking the foresight to set aside this pool of money is called 'no insurance'
It's not lacking foresight, it's making a risk assessment and a decision.  Setting aside that pool of money means you have to budget for that in the first place, and it's sitting idle, which doesn't work well with federal procurement.  Building a duplicate means you are potentially wasting money on duplicate hardware.

NASA lost an IDA in CRS-7 and had to go back and build another one.  There wasn't money "set aside" for insurance for that item.  It's not unusual to make these decisions.

I'm sure if Zuma is considered a critical asset they'll build another.  Whether that money was "set aside" from the beginning or will require a new black budgetary line item is irrelevant.
« Last Edit: 01/23/2018 05:40 pm by abaddon »

Offline Jim

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #1633 on: 01/23/2018 05:43 pm »
So much for 'self-insurance':
Quote
SpaceX Lost Satellite on U.S. Mission Was Uninsured
Quote
“The policy of the U.S. government has been that they do not buy insurance. They rely on the taxpayer to foot the bill when things go wrong.”
Not sure why the confusion, that's exactly what self-insurance means.

Quote
Self-insure is a method of managing risk by setting aside a pool of money to be used if an unexpected loss occurs. Theoretically, one can self-insure against any type of loss. However, in practice, most people choose to buy insurance against potentially large, infrequent losses.

Lacking the foresight to set aside this pool of money is called 'no insurance'

Wrong. Just stop.  You really don't know what you are talking.  This is how the gov't has managed space launch since the beginning.   Certification is part of the self-insurance.
« Last Edit: 01/23/2018 05:43 pm by Jim »

Offline Star One

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #1634 on: 01/23/2018 05:57 pm »
So much for 'self-insurance':
Quote
SpaceX Lost Satellite on U.S. Mission Was Uninsured
Quote
“The policy of the U.S. government has been that they do not buy insurance. They rely on the taxpayer to foot the bill when things go wrong.”

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2018/01/23/478112.htm

Edit: added reference

Hardly new news I posted an article about this several days ago that the US taxpayers will be picking up the news for any loss.

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #1635 on: 01/23/2018 06:04 pm »
And this is yet another case of the common unsubstantiated assumption of blame getting featured in the article headline:  "SpaceX Lost Satellite..."

SpaceX could, in actuality, start suing these publications for libel if this assumption continues to be featured in the media, especially since they have stated officially that the assumption is "categorically false".  Having made that kind of strong statement, publications which ignore it do so at their own legal risk.  SpaceX as an entity is not a celebrity, about whom tabloids have printed libelous articles for years.  You can slide by when libeling a celebrity, even though tabloids are occasionally (and successfully) sued by them.  Libel laws are taken more seriously in the courts when the victim of the libel is a corporate entity.

SpaceX likely won't sue anyone, but they'd have a good case if they chose to do so.  I wouldn't be all that surprised if one "set an example" suit gets filed, just to make other publishers think twice about allowing their publications to repeat unsubstantiated assumptions as fact.

It would surely be a better case than suing Jeremy Clarkson for libel over his opinion segment re Tesla.  Which Musk did.
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline docmordrid

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #1636 on: 01/23/2018 06:31 pm »
ISTM SpaceX wouldn't sue because pre-trial discovery could reveal things ZUMA_Owner rather not be made  public.
« Last Edit: 01/23/2018 06:31 pm by docmordrid »
DM

Offline Herb Schaltegger

ISTM SpaceX wouldn't sue because pre-trial discovery could reveal things ZUMA_Owner rather not be made  public.
All of it would be mooted by national security concerns. There is very little chance such a suit would ever make it past a motion to dismiss, not to mention SpaceX would have to demonstrate damages - an essential element of any cognizable claim. And that they cannot do - customers aren’t leaving, there is no publicly traded stock to tank, and therefore no market capitalization to measure ...
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Online Johnnyhinbos

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #1638 on: 01/23/2018 06:55 pm »
So one of the things that's been bothering me is something I can't back up with a reference because I can no longer track it down - so therefore mark this one up as speculation based on an imperfect memory...

... When we first heard about Zuma it was before we actually knew the name. As memory serves, at that time it was mentioned that whatever Zuma was, the "client", for lack of a better word, didn't have very deep pockets and covering the cost of the launch as an issue, but SpaceX had decided to make it happen regardless because of the importance of this mission.

Again - that's my recollection - and it doesn't jive with anything we've heard recently about Zuma. Then again, most of what we've heard is based on limited to no facts, and it's been a self-feeding process.

Does anyone else have this recollection? I mean, lord knows I've suffered through decompression sickness and all that, but...
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

Offline jpo234

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #1639 on: 01/23/2018 06:56 pm »



Lacking the foresight to set aside this pool of money is called 'no insurance'

The pool of money is called "Federal budget".
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

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