Poll

Which vehicle/spacecraft will be next to carry crew to orbit from the US?

F9/Dragon
269 (83.5%)
AtlasV/CST100
18 (5.6%)
AtlasV/DreamChaser
16 (5%)
F9/DreamChaser
3 (0.9%)
F9/CST100
4 (1.2%)
SLS/Orion
6 (1.9%)
Delta IV/Orion
6 (1.9%)

Total Members Voted: 322

Voting closed: 06/30/2014 11:24 pm


Author Topic: Which vehicle/spacecraft will be next to carry crew to orbit from the US?  (Read 70909 times)

Offline oiorionsbelt

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Hopefully all the realistic options are listed.
« Last Edit: 01/07/2014 10:25 pm by oiorionsbelt »

Offline Robotbeat

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Delta IV/Orion. (more likely than half of your options)

Also, you wrote STS/Orion when I think you mean SLS/Orion. :)
(Although STS/capsule was once looked at.)
« Last Edit: 01/07/2014 10:48 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline PahTo

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When this poll last came out (a couple years ago?) I selected AtlasV/CST100.  Given the passage of time and events, I'm now leaning towards F9/Dragon, and my vote reflects that.

Offline RonM

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SpaceX does have a big head start with the cargo Dragon. I think modifying it to a manned vehicle gives them the edge.

Offline NovaSilisko

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I'm quite sure that STS is not gonna be the vehicle carrying Orion ;p


(Although STS/capsule was once looked at.)

Interesting... PM me with any links to info on this, I'm curious now.
« Last Edit: 01/07/2014 11:00 pm by NovaSilisko »

Offline oiorionsbelt

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Delta IV/Orion. (more likely than half of your options)

Also, you wrote STS/Orion when I think you mean SLS/Orion. :)
(Although STS/capsule was once looked at.)
Whoops definitely SLS, not STS fixed that :) and took your suggestion adding Delta IV/Orion

Offline mb199

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Delta IV/Orion. (more likely than half of your options)

Also, you wrote STS/Orion when I think you mean SLS/Orion. :)
(Although STS/capsule was once looked at.)

Orion will never leave the ground!

Offline Robotbeat

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Delta IV/Orion. (more likely than half of your options)

Also, you wrote STS/Orion when I think you mean SLS/Orion. :)
(Although STS/capsule was once looked at.)

Orion will never leave the ground!
On the contrary, it's leaving the ground this year (and in test article form, it has already left the ground in several abort and/or drop tests). It does remain to be seen, however, if it will ever leave the ground with crew.
« Last Edit: 01/07/2014 11:18 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline AS-503

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Delta IV/Orion. (more likely than half of your options)

Also, you wrote STS/Orion when I think you mean SLS/Orion. :)
(Although STS/capsule was once looked at.)

Orion will never leave the ground!

Delta IV is highly unlikely to ever be "manned rated" in the eyes of NASA. Even if the green light were given today for a manned rated Delta IV, the others would still fly first, which is the topic at hand.
I agree that a manned Orion will likely never fly. If there were actual real AND funded missions for Orion I would be more optimistic.

Offline rcoppola

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F9/Dragon. From Pad 39A. (The Dream - December 2015.) (What I suspect - December 2016)

« Last Edit: 01/07/2014 11:33 pm by rcoppola »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Delta IV/Orion. (more likely than half of your options)

Also, you wrote STS/Orion when I think you mean SLS/Orion. :)
(Although STS/capsule was once looked at.)

Orion will never leave the ground!

Delta IV is highly unlikely to ever be "manned rated" in the eyes of NASA. Even if the green light were given today for a manned rated Delta IV, the others would still fly first, which is the topic at hand.
I agree that a manned Orion will likely never fly. If there were actual real AND funded missions for Orion I would be more optimistic.
I strongly disagree. I've already seen a hint of some internal support for Orion on Delta IV, and after a successful unmanned Orion-on-DeltaIV launch this year, just you watch that grow. I know it's "InternetTrue"TM that Delta IV is "unsuitable."

That said, I agree Falcon/Dragon will leave the ground with crew well before Orion does.
« Last Edit: 01/07/2014 11:53 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Khadgars

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Delta IV/Orion. (more likely than half of your options)

Also, you wrote STS/Orion when I think you mean SLS/Orion. :)
(Although STS/capsule was once looked at.)

Orion will never leave the ground!



Delta IV is highly unlikely to ever be "manned rated" in the eyes of NASA. Even if the green light were given today for a manned rated Delta IV, the others would still fly first, which is the topic at hand.
I agree that a manned Orion will likely never fly. If there were actual real AND funded missions for Orion I would be more optimistic.

The first two, possibly three flights of SLS/Orion seem like a sure thing to me.  What happens after that is anyone's guess.
Evil triumphs when good men do nothing - Thomas Jefferson

Offline Nomadd

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 The poll looks like a real squeaker so far.
« Last Edit: 01/10/2014 11:19 am by Nomadd »
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Offline mb199

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Delta IV/Orion. (more likely than half of your options)

Also, you wrote STS/Orion when I think you mean SLS/Orion. :)
(Although STS/capsule was once looked at.)

Orion will never leave the ground!

Delta IV is highly unlikely to ever be "manned rated" in the eyes of NASA. Even if the green light were given today for a manned rated Delta IV, the others would still fly first, which is the topic at hand.
I agree that a manned Orion will likely never fly. If there were actual real AND funded missions for Orion I would be more optimistic.
I strongly disagree. I've already seen a hint of some internal support for Orion on Delta IV, and after a successful unmanned Orion-on-DeltaIV launch this year, just you watch that grow. I know it's "InternetTrue"TM that Delta IV is "unsuitable."

That said, I agree Falcon/Dragon will leave the ground with crew well before Orion does.

What purpose would there be to put a manned Orion on a Delta IV??

Offline Robotbeat

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What purpose to Orion on Ares I?
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline vt_hokie

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The poll sure looks like a real squeaker so far.

My heart is still with Dream Chaser though!  :)

Offline arachnitect

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SpaceX does have a big head start with the cargo Dragon. I think modifying it to a manned vehicle gives them the edge.


SpaceX' edge is overstated: they're changing pretty much everything for manned dragon (aero, propulsion, power, recovery, ecs, etc.). I assume the mods are all well underway, but we've seen very few of them in the open.

I think SpaceX will win by submitting a ridiculously low bid.


I've already seen a hint of some internal support for Orion on Delta IV

That would have been good to have circa 2007.
« Last Edit: 01/08/2014 12:12 am by arachnitect »

Offline savuporo

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I've already seen a hint of some internal support for Orion on Delta IV

That would have been good to have circa 2007.
Make that 2004/2005 when VSE was still on track
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline AS-503

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What purpose to Orion on Ares I?

That would imply 1.5 architecture, which we know has been *dead* since CxP was cancelled.
For example, an Orion on Delta IV means an Orion to LEO (or high eccentric LEO like the upcoming test flight).
As you well know, Orion is not an LEO specific spacecraft. In fact it has been touted time and again as a superior spacecraft to the LEO competition (rightfully so), but it needs SLS (or a return to 1.5 or 2.0 launch architecture) to be BEO.
So Orion launching on a Delta IV is NOT going to BEO, but you knew that already. ;)
« Last Edit: 01/08/2014 12:52 am by AS-503 »

Offline A_M_Swallow

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That would imply 1.5 architecture, which we know has been *dead* since CxP was cancelled.
For example, an Orion on Delta IV means an Orion to LEO (or high eccentric LEO like the upcoming test flight).
As you well know, Orion is not an LEO specific spacecraft. In fact it has been touted time and again as a superior spacecraft to the LEO competition (rightfully so), but it needs SLS (or a return to 1.5 or 2.0 launch architecture) to be BEO.
So Orion launching on a Delta IV is NOT going to BEO, but you knew that already. ;)

Or a 4.0 architecture.

The Delta IV could fly the Orion to a propellant depot where it picks up a lunar lander, inspace stage and the return_to_Earth propellant.

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