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General Discussion => Space Policy Discussion => Topic started by: Chris Bergin on 04/15/2010 05:33 pm

Title: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: Chris Bergin on 04/15/2010 05:33 pm
At Long Last, an Inspiring Future for Space Exploration

The Apollo Moon landing was one of humanity’s greatest achievements.  Millennia from now, when the vast majority of the 20th century is reduced to a few footnotes known only to erudite scholars of history, they will still remember that was when we first set foot upon a heavenly body.  It was a mere 66 years after the first powered airplane flight by the Wright brothers.

 

In the 41 years that have passed since 1969, we have yet to surpass that achievement in human spaceflight.  Since then, our capability has actually declined considerably and to a degree that would yield shocked disbelief from anyone in that era.  By now, we were supposed to have a base on the Moon, perhaps even on Mars, and have sent humans traveling on great odysseys to the outer planets.  Instead, we have been confined to low Earth orbit and even that ends this year with the retirement of the Space Shuttle.

 

In 2003, following the Columbia accident, President Bush began development of a system to replace the Shuttle, called the Ares I rocket and Orion spacecraft.  It is important to note that this too would only have been able to reach low Earth orbit.  Many in the media mistakenly assumed it was capable of reaching the Moon.  As is not unusual with large government programs, the schedule slipped by several years and costs ballooned by tens of billions.

 

By the time President Obama cancelled Ares I/Orion earlier this year, the schedule had already slipped five years to 2017 and completing development would have required another $50 billion.  Moreover, the cost per flight, inclusive of overhead, was estimated to be at least $1.5 billion compared to the $1 billion of Shuttle, despite carrying only four people to Shuttle’s seven and almost no cargo.

 

The President quite reasonably concluded that spending $50 billion to develop a vehicle that would cost 50% more to operate, but carry 50% less payload was perhaps not the best possible use of funds.  To quote a member of the Augustine Commission, which was convened by the President to analyze Ares/Orion, “If Santa Claus brought us the system tomorrow, fully developed, and the budget didn’t change, our next action would have to be to cancel it,” because we can’t afford the annual operating costs. 

 

Cancellation was therefore simply a matter of time and thankfully we have a President with the political courage to do the right thing sooner rather than later.  We can ill afford the expense of an “Apollo on steroids”, as a former NASA Administrator referred to the Ares/Orion program.  A lesser President might have waited until after the upcoming election cycle, not caring that billions more dollars would be wasted.  It was disappointing to see how many in Congress did not possess this courage.  One senator in particular was determined to achieve a new altitude record in hypocrisy, claiming that the public option was bad in healthcare, but good in space!

Thankfully, as a result of funds freed up by this cancellation, there is now hope for a bright future in space exploration.  The new plan is to harness our nation’s unparalleled system of free enterprise (as we have done in all other modes of transport), to create far more reliable and affordable rockets.  Handing over Earth orbit transport to American commercial companies, overseen of course by NASA and the FAA, will free up the NASA resources necessary to develop interplanetary transport technologies.  This is critically important if we are to reach Mars, the next giant leap in human exploration of the Universe. 

Today, the President will articulate an ambitious and exciting new plan that will alter our destiny as a species.  I believe this address could be as important as President Kennedy’s 1962 speech at Rice University.  For the first time since Apollo, our country will have a plan for space exploration that inspires and excites all who look to the stars.  Even more important, it will work.

--Elon--

 
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: FinalFrontier on 04/15/2010 05:40 pm
At Long Last, an Inspiring Future for Space Exploration

The Apollo Moon landing was one of humanity’s greatest achievements.  Millennia from now, when the vast majority of the 20th century is reduced to a few footnotes known only to erudite scholars of history, they will still remember that was when we first set foot upon a heavenly body.  It was a mere 66 years after the first powered airplane flight by the Wright brothers.

 

In the 41 years that have passed since 1969, we have yet to surpass that achievement in human spaceflight.  Since then, our capability has actually declined considerably and to a degree that would yield shocked disbelief from anyone in that era.  By now, we were supposed to have a base on the Moon, perhaps even on Mars, and have sent humans traveling on great odysseys to the outer planets.  Instead, we have been confined to low Earth orbit and even that ends this year with the retirement of the Space Shuttle.

 

In 2003, following the Columbia accident, President Bush began development of a system to replace the Shuttle, called the Ares I rocket and Orion spacecraft.  It is important to note that this too would only have been able to reach low Earth orbit.  Many in the media mistakenly assumed it was capable of reaching the Moon.  As is not unusual with large government programs, the schedule slipped by several years and costs ballooned by tens of billions.

 

By the time President Obama cancelled Ares I/Orion earlier this year, the schedule had already slipped five years to 2017 and completing development would have required another $50 billion.  Moreover, the cost per flight, inclusive of overhead, was estimated to be at least $1.5 billion compared to the $1 billion of Shuttle, despite carrying only four people to Shuttle’s seven and almost no cargo.

 

The President quite reasonably concluded that spending $50 billion to develop a vehicle that would cost 50% more to operate, but carry 50% less payload was perhaps not the best possible use of funds.  To quote a member of the Augustine Commission, which was convened by the President to analyze Ares/Orion, “If Santa Claus brought us the system tomorrow, fully developed, and the budget didn’t change, our next action would have to be to cancel it,” because we can’t afford the annual operating costs. 

 

Cancellation was therefore simply a matter of time and thankfully we have a President with the political courage to do the right thing sooner rather than later.  We can ill afford the expense of an “Apollo on steroids”, as a former NASA Administrator referred to the Ares/Orion program.  A lesser President might have waited until after the upcoming election cycle, not caring that billions more dollars would be wasted.  It was disappointing to see how many in Congress did not possess this courage.  One senator in particular was determined to achieve a new altitude record in hypocrisy, claiming that the public option was bad in healthcare, but good in space!

Thankfully, as a result of funds freed up by this cancellation, there is now hope for a bright future in space exploration.  The new plan is to harness our nation’s unparalleled system of free enterprise (as we have done in all other modes of transport), to create far more reliable and affordable rockets.  Handing over Earth orbit transport to American commercial companies, overseen of course by NASA and the FAA, will free up the NASA resources necessary to develop interplanetary transport technologies.  This is critically important if we are to reach Mars, the next giant leap in human exploration of the Universe. 

Today, the President will articulate an ambitious and exciting new plan that will alter our destiny as a species.  I believe this address could be as important as President Kennedy’s 1962 speech at Rice University.  For the first time since Apollo, our country will have a plan for space exploration that inspires and excites all who look to the stars.  Even more important, it will work.

--Elon--

 

I wonder what it is the Musk knows to make him say that? We will see, but I am expecting the press to basically sell the original plan (try to sell) with two STS missions tacked on. Oh and the orion life boat thing.
Nothing has changed......yet.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: yg1968 on 04/15/2010 05:42 pm
Quote
One senator in particular was determined to achieve a new altitude record in hypocrisy, claiming that the public option was bad in healthcare, but good in space!

Now, now Elon be nice to Senator Shelby...
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: kraisee on 04/15/2010 05:43 pm
Elon should not have released that before Obama actually makes his speech.

Gazumping the President's News Cycle is a really bad way to make friends with any of the WH staff, let alone the occupant of the Oval.   And those folk have long memories.

Ross.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: Mark S on 04/15/2010 05:46 pm
Elon should not have released that before Obama actually makes his speech.

Gazumping the President's News Cycle is a really bad way to make friends with any of the WH staff, let alone the occupant of the Oval.   And those folk have long memories.

Ross.

He's just helping to ratchet up the excitement.  It's not like he revealed anything new in his press release, other than the fact that he has an opinion like everyone else.

Mark S.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: bad_astra on 04/15/2010 05:48 pm
I think if he'd sung the praises of SDLV, the Cult would be cheering him on, right now.

I'm with Buzz and Elon.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: mmeijeri on 04/15/2010 05:48 pm
Quote
One senator in particular was determined to achieve a new altitude record in hypocrisy, claiming that the public option was bad in healthcare, but good in space!

Now, now Elon be nice to Senator Shelby...


Wow, I missed that one. I'm astonished he would say something like that. In general taking potshots at someone who has a lot of influence over your future business prospects is a bad idea. Unless that person's antagonism is already maxed out, which might be the case with senator Shelby. Or if the battle has already been won, which I doubt. Does Musk know something we don't?
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: telomerase99 on 04/15/2010 05:49 pm
What are you talking about? The WH made an extensive release with details 48 hours prior.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: FinalFrontier on 04/15/2010 05:52 pm
I think if he'd sung the praises of SDLV, the Cult would be cheering him on, right now.

I'm with Buzz and Elon.
Then you may ride the train to wherever it goes (crazy land???).
I would not place bets on ANY of these statements.
Oh and even he had sung SDHLV I would STILL not place any bets because most of the "rumors" recently have turned out to be wrong.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: gladiator1332 on 04/15/2010 05:54 pm
I see nothing wrong with that statement, and I would expect nothing less than that from him since he has such a large stake in this new plan. However, after today and once congress approves the budget, if commercial crew remains, it will be "put up or shut up" time for SpaceX.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: marsavian on 04/15/2010 05:55 pm
Elon's Ares I numbers are about double the accepted reality unless he's included Ares V as well and not told us ;). I suppose FUD is a two way street in this battle for NASA funds ;).
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: rjholling on 04/15/2010 05:57 pm
Quote
One senator in particular was determined to achieve a new altitude record in hypocrisy, claiming that the public option was bad in healthcare, but good in space!

Now, now Elon be nice to Senator Shelby...

I LOL'd at that.  I think that Elon articulated his view well and didn't say anything misleading regarding Ares I.  For his company this is all great news and why shouldn't he be cheering on the President right now.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: Diagoras on 04/15/2010 06:00 pm
Elon did not pull any punches! Good on him.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: dks13827 on 04/15/2010 06:03 pm
Musk is an Obama contributor, and as such, stands to gain Nasa funds.  What has he DEMONSTRATED thus far ?  His naivete about manned flight being 'not that difficult'  is unbelievable.  Unrealistic people like that are not a good thing, they cause harm.  Witness the past few months re:  Nasa.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: telomerase99 on 04/15/2010 06:11 pm
There is no change. The fact is that the budget is revolutionary and will allow people like Musk to prove that they are right, or wrong. Musk believes that with the money available he will get people to orbit so cheap that he will get people to the moon and mars.

Maybe he will be proved wrong, but this budget as is gives him and others their chance.

The budget is indeed bold and revolutionary.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: jongoff on 04/15/2010 06:17 pm
What has he DEMONSTRATED thus far?

SpaceX has demonstrated the ability to design from scratch a new booster using new propulsion systems and successfully place payloads into orbit using it.  While he did have some learning curve issues, that's a feat that NASA hasn't done successfully in the past 30 years (in spite of blowing through several dozen times the amount they've spent on SpaceX to-date).

That isn't everything they need to do by a long-shot, but they've actually got a better recent track record than MSFC.

~Jon
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: Namechange User on 04/15/2010 06:24 pm
Jon,

The statement above is part of the problem.  I hope SpaceX and everyone else succeeds.  As I have stated many times before, from my perspective, we are all in this together and want the best for this industry.  Government and commercial alike. 

SpaceX has made some impressive accomplishments.  However, as dks also points out, there is nothing operational yet, or even flown, that helps support the position we are in today. 

The "us versus them" mentality is most of the reason you are recieved the way you are by some, especially me. 
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: FinalFrontier on 04/15/2010 06:27 pm
What has he DEMONSTRATED thus far?

SpaceX has demonstrated the ability to design from scratch a new booster using new propulsion systems and successfully place payloads into orbit using it.  While he did have some learning curve issues, that's a feat that NASA hasn't done successfully in the past 30 years (in spite of blowing through several dozen times the amount they've spent on SpaceX to-date).

That isn't everything they need to do by a long-shot, but they've actually got a better recent track record than MSFC.

~Jon
If you mean f1 thats " a booster which has a track record of 2 sucess for 3 failures."

If you mean F9 thats "a booster which has not flown yet." Nasa did that too when they built ares 1x. And just because it flew doesn't mean anything because it *wasn't* really an ares rocket. So Nasa has done just as much, by your meter stick.
Still, I accept criticism to MSFC, personally I REALLY don't like how they handled CXP, they were part of the problem.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: ugordan on 04/15/2010 06:27 pm
I will LOL if f9 flight one crashes back to the cape in pieces.

And so what if it does? India's latest booster also ended up in the drink, is that actual proof they're incompetent of actually doing it right eventually?
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: jongoff on 04/15/2010 06:33 pm
OV,

The "us versus them" mentality is most of the reason you are recieved the way you are by some, especially me.

Fair enough.  I was just responding to someone else's "us-vs-them", but I probably could have found a way to put MSFC's past 30 years of new vehicle development efforts more tactfully... That said, even MSFC has some things it does well (being a manufacturing engineer I'm a fan of a lot of the work they've done on various mfg processes), and I've got respect for the work done in other areas of NASA, even if I think there were better ways of doing some things.

~Jon
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: Jim on 04/15/2010 06:34 pm
I will LOL if f9 flight one crashes back to the cape in pieces. Or any of the f9 flights for that matter. I want them to suceed but not if the price of sucess is overblown arrogance. :(

And ISS will be SOL as far as logistics.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: neilh on 04/15/2010 06:34 pm
Musk is an Obama contributor, and as such, stands to gain Nasa funds.  What has he DEMONSTRATED thus far ?  His naivete about manned flight being 'not that difficult'  is unbelievable.  Unrealistic people like that are not a good thing, they cause harm.  Witness the past few months re:  Nasa.
Could cause his company to fail if he remains arrogant. I will LOL if f9 flight one crashes back to the cape in pieces. Or any of the f9 flights for that matter. I want them to suceed but not if the price of sucess is overblown arrogance. :(

Could you quote which parts of the statement are "overblown arrogance"?
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: FinalFrontier on 04/15/2010 06:40 pm
Musk is an Obama contributor, and as such, stands to gain Nasa funds.  What has he DEMONSTRATED thus far ?  His naivete about manned flight being 'not that difficult'  is unbelievable.  Unrealistic people like that are not a good thing, they cause harm.  Witness the past few months re:  Nasa.
Could cause his company to fail if he remains arrogant. I will LOL if f9 flight one crashes back to the cape in pieces. Or any of the f9 flights for that matter. I want them to suceed but not if the price of sucess is overblown arrogance. :(

Could you quote which parts of the statement are "overblown arrogance"?
Like the fact that he assumes he has the credibility to make these remarks. He has not sufficently demonstrated the viability of his LV's yet IMO. That he appears to assume that he is a serious player at this point is the arrogant part. Not until f9 has a few flights under its built would I have made ANY statement (let alone his statement) if I was in his position.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: FinalFrontier on 04/15/2010 06:42 pm
I will LOL if f9 flight one crashes back to the cape in pieces.

And so what if it does? India's latest booster also ended up in the drink, is that actual proof they're incompetent of actually doing it right eventually?
Of COURSE they can do it eventually. The problem with the statement made is that he assumes he can already do it sucesfully and f9 has not even flown yet.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: JohnFornaro on 04/15/2010 06:42 pm
Boy, you guys are quick.  I just got this:

The Apollo Moon landing was one of humanity's greatest achievements....the next giant leap in human exploration of the Universe.

Today, the President will articulate a new plan for America's space effort.  I will be commenting on it as soon as I have had a chance to study the details.
an ambitious and exciting new plan that will alter our destiny as a species. I believe this address could be as important as President Kennedy's 1962 speech at Rice University. For the first time since Apollo, our country will have a plan for space exploration that inspires and excites all who look to the stars. Even more important, it will work.

Fixed that for ya, Mr. Musk.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: ugordan on 04/15/2010 06:46 pm
Of COURSE they can do it eventually. The problem with the statement made is that he assumes he can already do it sucesfully and f9 has not even flown yet.

Point me to where exactly he assumes he can already do it in that statement.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: neilh on 04/15/2010 06:47 pm
Musk is an Obama contributor, and as such, stands to gain Nasa funds.  What has he DEMONSTRATED thus far ?  His naivete about manned flight being 'not that difficult'  is unbelievable.  Unrealistic people like that are not a good thing, they cause harm.  Witness the past few months re:  Nasa.
Could cause his company to fail if he remains arrogant. I will LOL if f9 flight one crashes back to the cape in pieces. Or any of the f9 flights for that matter. I want them to suceed but not if the price of sucess is overblown arrogance. :(

Could you quote which parts of the statement are "overblown arrogance"?
Like the fact that he assumes he has the credibility to make these remarks. He has not sufficently demonstrated the viability of his LV's yet IMO. That he appears to assume that he is a serious player at this point is the arrogant part. Not until f9 has a few flights under its built would I have made ANY statement (let alone his statement) if I was in his position.

Could you point out where he mentions the Falcon 9 or his company at all? It doesn't seem to be in my copy of the statement.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: neilh on 04/15/2010 06:48 pm
Boy, you guys are quick.  I just got this:

The Apollo Moon landing was one of humanity's greatest achievements....the next giant leap in human exploration of the Universe.

Today, the President will articulate a new plan for America's space effort.  I will be commenting on it as soon as I have had a chance to study the details.
an ambitious and exciting new plan that will alter our destiny as a species. I believe this address could be as important as President Kennedy's 1962 speech at Rice University. For the first time since Apollo, our country will have a plan for space exploration that inspires and excites all who look to the stars. Even more important, it will work.

Fixed that for ya, Mr. Musk.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/ostp-space-conf-factsheet.pdf
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: Chris-A on 04/15/2010 06:55 pm
Check out msnbc right now, The president was at the F9 pad today.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: corrodedNut on 04/15/2010 07:02 pm
I guess that answers the question if the F9 had been rolled back yet.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: WHAP on 04/15/2010 07:24 pm
Cancelled a visit to 41 to visit 40 instead?  Interesting....
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: Jim on 04/15/2010 07:26 pm
The Spacex hangar is at the "pad"
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: ugordan on 04/15/2010 07:28 pm
The Spacex hangar is at the "pad"

This suggests they at least rolled F9 out for the occasion, though: http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_space_thewritestuff/2010/04/obama-talks-briefly-with-elon-musk-of-spacex.html
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: JohnFornaro on 04/15/2010 07:39 pm
Neilh:  I don't get your point.  I scanned that fact sheet.  I can definitely say that I have had less time to review the details of the "Bold New Approach" than Mr. Musk has.   If this surprises anyone here, please raise your hand.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: corrodedNut on 04/15/2010 07:42 pm
When I saw the Pres and Musk standing under the (vertical) F9, I assumed that it had been there since the hot fire. I guess it could have been rolled to the hangar and then rolled back out again for this visit, or alternatively, it has been horizontal at its launch mount pivot this whole time and it was just raised for this visit. Anybody know any different?
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: RocketEconomist327 on 04/16/2010 03:36 am
Could cause his company to fail if he remains arrogant. I will LOL if f9 flight one crashes back to the cape in pieces. Or any of the f9 flights for that matter. I want them to suceed but not if the price of sucess is overblown arrogance. :(

This line of thinking is disgustingly childish.  Not only can the poster not spell but the poster hopes the company suffers failures because of his perceived bias'.  Shameful.

Personally, I could give a rat's rear end who is launching.  I NEVER HOPE for failure and sure as hell won't laugh when metal showers come raining down.  I pull for them all, the United States, the Europeans, the Russians, Chinese, Japanese, South Koreans, and Indians.

Who are you cheering for?  Your POR or humanity?

Mod this if you have to but this line of thinking is disturbing.

VR
RS327
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: SpacexULA on 04/16/2010 03:52 am
Like the fact that he assumes he has the credibility to make these remarks. He has not sufficently demonstrated the viability of his LV's yet IMO. That he appears to assume that he is a serious player at this point is the arrogant part. Not until f9 has a few flights under its built would I have made ANY statement (let alone his statement) if I was in his position.

He is shucking for his industry and organization, no different than ULA talking up Fuel Depots, even though they have never built them, Virgin Galactic talking up their passenger vehicle wen they've never carried more than a single person at a time, or Shuttle Managers talking up the benefits of SDLV, even though their numbers are based off projections, just like ULA's.

Let's all just hope, no matter what Congress decides to green light, they fund it fully this time.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: ugordan on 04/16/2010 07:33 am
Of COURSE they can do it eventually. The problem with the statement made is that he assumes he can already do it sucesfully and f9 has not even flown yet.

Point me to where exactly he assumes he can already do it in that statement.

*crickets*

No?
Didn't think so.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: R.Simko on 04/16/2010 03:54 pm
Musk is an Obama contributor, and as such, stands to gain Nasa funds.  What has he DEMONSTRATED thus far ?  His naivete about manned flight being 'not that difficult'  is unbelievable.  Unrealistic people like that are not a good thing, they cause harm.  Witness the past few months re:  Nasa.
Could cause his company to fail if he remains arrogant. I will LOL if f9 flight one crashes back to the cape in pieces. Or any of the f9 flights for that matter. I want them to suceed but not if the price of sucess is overblown arrogance. :(

What some people view here as arrogance, I see as a "CAN DO" spirit.   I also feel that Elon was not just referring to himself and SpaceX, but was also stating his faith in America's commercial space industry.  I think Elon has made it clear from other statements, that SpaceX is not going to do it alone, NASA and other commercial space companies will be working together, so that America can once again reach out beyond LEO.
 

IMHO, our country was built on a Can Do spirit and a belief in ourselves.  We can do it, we just need to work together.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: JohnFornaro on 04/16/2010 05:26 pm
...He is shucking for his industry and organization...

And I flat out don't have a problem with that either.

What some people view here as arrogance, I see as a "CAN DO" spirit....

And I flat out don't have a problem with that either.  It's not arrogance, it's confidence.

I was just already tired of reading that mushy stuff at the end.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: gladiator1332 on 04/16/2010 05:57 pm
...He is shucking for his industry and organization...

And I flat out don't have a problem with that either.

What some people view here as arrogance, I see as a "CAN DO" spirit....

And I flat out don't have a problem with that either.  It's not arrogance, it's confidence.

I was just already tired of reading that mushy stuff at the end.

I agree. I mean what do people expect Musk to say?

 "I am 100% confident my company cannot meet the deadlines. Our reliability numbers are completely made up, and I am pretty sure this thing will fail. And if you are wondering which vehicle I think is best for the job, well I would go talk to those Shuttle guys over there, or maybe ULA, they sure as hell have a better idea about what it is going on than I do!"

Yeah that sounds like the best thing to say before the most powerful man in the world shows up to check out your vehicle.  ::)
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: ugordan on 04/16/2010 06:03 pm
Yeah that sounds like the best thing to say before the most powerful man in the world shows up to check out your vehicle.  ::)

Speaking of which... Originally, Obama was supposed to visit the Atlas pad If I'm not mistaken. I wonder why the late change of plan. No doubt this will cement the erroneous notion of "commercial = SpaceX" in many people's minds so maybe it wasn't such a good idea in that regard.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: Sen on 04/16/2010 07:19 pm
Yeah that sounds like the best thing to say before the most powerful man in the world shows up to check out your vehicle.  ::)

Speaking of which... Originally, Obama was supposed to visit the Atlas pad If I'm not mistaken. I wonder why the late change of plan. No doubt this will cement the erroneous notion of "commercial = SpaceX" in many people's minds so maybe it wasn't such a good idea in that regard.

     People who say/think that are already partisans in the debate. As for why the last minute change, its not that hard to figure out given recent statements, testimony, etc. The plan doesnt depend on spacex, but it also doesnt depend on ULA, from the administrations perspective.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: dks13827 on 04/17/2010 04:50 am
Mr Musk has put small payloads, very small, into orbit.  Nasa did that in the 1950's.
And by magic Mr Musk will leap forward many years of capability in 3 years ?  Come on !!!
Read   ANGLE OF ATTACK   or any other Apollo history book, learn a little physics.  You will see that Apollo was at least 100 times harder than what you might think.   It is true.  It is physics.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: dks13827 on 04/17/2010 04:52 am
Like the fact that he assumes he has the credibility to make these remarks. He has not sufficently demonstrated the viability of his LV's yet IMO. That he appears to assume that he is a serious player at this point is the arrogant part. Not until f9 has a few flights under its built would I have made ANY statement (let alone his statement) if I was in his position.

He is shucking for his industry and organization, no different than ULA talking up Fuel Depots, even though they have never built them, Virgin Galactic talking up their passenger vehicle wen they've never carried more than a single person at a time, or Shuttle Managers talking up the benefits of SDLV, even though their numbers are based off projections, just like ULA's.

Let's all just hope, no matter what Congress decides to green light, they fund it fully this time.
Boy do I agree with that !!!!
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: dks13827 on 04/17/2010 04:59 am
...He is shucking for his industry and organization...

And I flat out don't have a problem with that either.

What some people view here as arrogance, I see as a "CAN DO" spirit....

And I flat out don't have a problem with that either.  It's not arrogance, it's confidence.

I was just already tired of reading that mushy stuff at the end.

I agree. I mean what do people expect Musk to say?

 "I am 100% confident my company cannot meet the deadlines. Our reliability numbers are completely made up, and I am pretty sure this thing will fail. And if you are wondering which vehicle I think is best for the job, well I would go talk to those Shuttle guys over there, or maybe ULA, they sure as hell have a better idea about what it is going on than I do!"

Yeah that sounds like the best thing to say before the most powerful man in the world shows up to check out your vehicle.  ::)
Mr Musk is naive, he's a kid.  I bet he would find fault with 1000 decisions made during Apollo, ask him !!  But it worked and it was based on reality.  Note that I did not say I wish him ill.  Also the can do spirit must be based somewhat on reality, also.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: ugordan on 04/17/2010 10:24 am
Mr Musk has put small payloads, very small, into orbit.  Nasa did that in the 1950's.
And by magic Mr Musk will leap forward many years of capability in 3 years ?  Come on !!!

First you pull out the usual "they're trying to do what NASA did way back in the 50's and 60's" and then further assume they cannot do it because they have to single-handedly relearn all the lessons NASA had to learn back then. I guess all of that hard-learned knowledge is off limits to SpaceX or anyone in the industry or something. How long did it take NASA from those small payloads to Glenn in orbit, with many unknowns of spaceflight back then?

You are essentially saying a complete booster sitting on the LC-40 pad right now cannot possibly be made to fly to LEO in that timeframe. While there may well be problems, I beg to differ. And I don't have to invoke known laws of physics to drive my point home.

Quote
Read   ANGLE OF ATTACK   or any other Apollo history book, learn a little physics.  You will see that Apollo was at least 100 times harder than what you might think.   It is true.  It is physics.

I see. Do these laws of physics change when going from a small booster to a bigger one? Do laws of physics actually prevent something to be done in 3 years, especially if it was already being worked on for the past years? They aren't building a frickin' warp-capable starship for crying out loud.

Actually, I'm not really sure what your point of comparing LEO taxi service to Apollo moon landings is. Did I miss the point where Musk promised to land people on the moon within 3 years?
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: SpacexULA on 04/17/2010 03:20 pm
Mr Musk is naive, he's a kid.  I bet he would find fault with 1000 decisions made during Apollo, ask him !!  But it worked and it was based on reality.  Note that I did not say I wish him ill.  Also the can do spirit must be based somewhat on reality, also.

He has the dot com attitude, same as the upper executives at Google, Craigslist, Twitter, and Amazon.  It's not naivete, it's a honest willingness to to try hard, be wrong, change direction, and try again. 

"I bet he would find fault in 1000 decisions made during Apollo, ask him!!".  Apollo was Safety and Time line optimized, not budget optimized.  By design there are thousands of ways to criticize Apollo on a budget basis, but you can't argue much with it's time line!

Constellation attempted to be Budget, Time line, and Safety optimized.  When you try to do that all 3 will fail spectacularly.

Flexible path is Safety and Budget optimized, not Time line optimized.  That's why you see people so up in arms.  You don't get all 3 in ANY development program I have ever seen.  Something has to give.

 
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: JohnFornaro on 04/17/2010 03:43 pm
...I wonder why the late change of plan...

C'mon guys.  Didja all notice that he was walking with a slight hunch to his shoulders, and that the looked down a couple of times while he was walking?  I think that sez a lot about his opinion of the concrete sub-contractor's work...  Y'all are reading too much gravity into some things.

...
Mr Musk is naive, he's a kid...

What possible positive value can come from this observation?  Please discuss the disposition of the various programs mentioned in the budget proposal.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: MP99 on 04/19/2010 09:28 pm
Constellation attempted to be Budget, Time line, and Safety optimized.  When you try to do that all 3 will fail spectacularly.

Flexible path is Safety and Budget optimized, not Time line optimized.  That's why you see people so up in arms.  You don't get all 3 in ANY development program I have ever seen.  Something has to give.

But how to keep Congress' interest alive through a 25-year programme that doesn't even intend to land on Mars?

cheers, Martin
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: yg1968 on 04/19/2010 10:05 pm
By adopting a flexible path with various destinations along the way.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: Rabidpanda on 04/19/2010 10:51 pm
Constellation attempted to be Budget, Time line, and Safety optimized.  When you try to do that all 3 will fail spectacularly.

Flexible path is Safety and Budget optimized, not Time line optimized.  That's why you see people so up in arms.  You don't get all 3 in ANY development program I have ever seen.  Something has to give.

But how to keep Congress' interest alive through a 25-year programme that doesn't even intend to land on Mars?

cheers, Martin

It does intend to land on Mars.  Didn't you see the president's speech?
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: Proponent on 04/20/2010 02:36 am
But how to keep Congress' interest alive through a 25-year programme that doesn't even intend to land on Mars?

Well, the Shuttle doesn't get anywhere near Mars, yet there's all kinds of Congressional interest in keeping it going.  As long as somebody's Congressional district is getting some jobs off of the program, I think they're will be an element of Congressional support.  The trick is just to make sure that Congressional opposition doesn't become too strong, and that probably means making sure that the cost doesn't rise too high and avoiding high-publicity disasters.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: mr. mark on 04/20/2010 02:59 am
I would personally, start to look more at Bigelow's lunar base as private space's future plan. Bigelow just announced that after several sundancer space stations they plan on assembling a lunar station off site and landing it on the lunar surface. The future for private space is the moon not Mars in the near future.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: Nascent Ascent on 04/20/2010 03:04 am
Quote
It does intend to land on Mars.  Didn't you see the president's speech?

 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Thanks!  I needed a laugh tonight.

Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: mr. mark on 04/20/2010 03:11 am
Mars might as well be in the 22nd century. There will be no Mars landing till possibly the latter part of the 21st century. These predictions for the 2030's are way off. More like 2050's or 2060's. Bigelow has announced landing their inflatable space habitat on the Moon first before anything on Mars. Right now NASA is talking about flyby's not landings.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: Rabidpanda on 04/20/2010 04:45 am
Quote
It does intend to land on Mars.  Didn't you see the president's speech?

 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Thanks!  I needed a laugh tonight.



The president specifically stated in his speech that landing on Mars was a goal.  Here is a direct quote:

Quote
By the mid-2030s, I believe we can send humans to orbit Mars and return them safely to Earth. And a landing on Mars will follow. And I expect to be around to see it.

You will probably call me naive for believing what Obama said.  However, I think it is perfectly correct to say that according to the speech that Obama made on the 15th,  his plan for NASA does intend to land on Mars.  Call me optimistic but I think it could happen.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: vt_hokie on 04/20/2010 04:52 am

You will probably call me naive for believing what Obama said.  However, I think it is perfectly correct to say that according to the speech that Obama made on the 15th,  his plan for NASA does intend to land on Mars.  Call me optimistic but I think it could happen.

With all due respect, I do believe it is naive to assume that in return for dismantling our existing infrastructure and experience base, we will receive some wonderful breakthrough that enables a vastly superior HLV after 2015.

Also, history shows that vague promises of things 25 or 30 years down the road, particularly from politicians, have very little credibility.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: Rabidpanda on 04/20/2010 04:53 am
Mars might as well be in the 22nd century. There will be no Mars landing till possibly the latter part of the 21st century. These predictions for the 2030's are way off. More like 2050's or 2060's. Bigelow has announced landing their inflatable space habitat on the Moon first before anything on Mars. Right now NASA is talking about flyby's not landings.

Wrong.  NASA is talking about Mars orbit in the 2030s, not a Mars flyby,  There's a huge difference.  Once you have acheived mars orbit, the only thing you need to develop for a Mars surface mission is a lander.  Assuming that lander development takes 10 years we could land on mars sometime in the 40s.  That sounds pretty good to me.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: Rabidpanda on 04/20/2010 04:58 am

You will probably call me naive for believing what Obama said.  However, I think it is perfectly correct to say that according to the speech that Obama made on the 15th,  his plan for NASA does intend to land on Mars.  Call me optimistic but I think it could happen.

With all due respect, I do believe it is naive to assume that in return for dismantling our existing infrastructure and experience base, we will receive some wonderful breakthrough that enables a vastly superior HLV after 2015.

Then I would agree with you.  I never said that I thought any of that, I personally would prefer an EELV derived HLV to a completely new design.  My post was about whether or not Obama's plan intends to land us on Mars.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: Robotbeat on 04/20/2010 05:01 am
Any administration (or leadership from Congress... *chuckle*) from now to just about 2030 could add a Mars lander to a planned Mars orbit mission without significantly adding to the schedule. It'd just take more money.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: vt_hokie on 04/20/2010 05:08 am

Then I would agree with you.  I never said that I thought any of that, I personally would prefer an EELV derived HLV to a completely new design.  My post was about whether or not Obama's plan intends to land us on Mars.

My apologies, I didn't mean to put words in your mouth.  My personal opinion is that Obama's past comments show he is not a strong proponent of human spaceflight, and at best is ambivalent and willing to kick the can down the road.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: telomerase99 on 04/20/2010 06:21 am
Quote
Like the fact that he assumes he has the credibility to make these remarks. He has not sufficently demonstrated the viability of his LV's yet IMO. That he appears to assume that he is a serious player at this point is the arrogant part. Not until f9 has a few flights under its built would I have made ANY statement (let alone his statement) if I was in his position.

Well he does have a 1.6 billion dollar minimum contract in the bag... I guess that might be a reason for him to make a statement. The president did come see him and basically offer him more support. He does have a rocket sitting on the pad that was developed for a fraction of the cost of the failed Ares 1. I don't see his statements as arrogant at all.

I think its wonderful to have a president that is not into NASA at all. Obama doesn't really know too much about it so he relies on an MIT professor and a Stanford professor. A President is only as good as his advisors. Reagan was a movie star and wanted a space plane and we got nothing out of it.

I take great stock in what the brightest minds of our nation plan for NASA, not that you are not pretty smart too hokie, maybe just not tenured at Stanford and/or Harvard ehh? ;)
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: neilh on 04/20/2010 09:27 pm
Yeah that sounds like the best thing to say before the most powerful man in the world shows up to check out your vehicle.  ::)

Speaking of which... Originally, Obama was supposed to visit the Atlas pad If I'm not mistaken. I wonder why the late change of plan. No doubt this will cement the erroneous notion of "commercial = SpaceX" in many people's minds so maybe it wasn't such a good idea in that regard.

I personally wish that Obama would have visited the Atlas as well, although I suspect the DOD may have been rather unhappy with the idea of a high-profile Obama visit attracting unwanted attention to the classified X-37.
Title: Re: Elon/SpaceX on FY2011 Plan
Post by: JohnFornaro on 04/21/2010 03:05 pm
They just dusted off the drawings of the MSC-Dc3 from 1970-ish.  Gotta billyun bux for running the copy machine...  Doh-dee-oh-doh-doh....