Author Topic: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 1  (Read 640901 times)

Offline Brovane

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #180 on: 10/13/2014 02:25 pm »

The 1st company I mentioned plans to be flying manned in 2016, a year ahead of the ISS crew flight. NASA is in no danger - unless it doesn't trust the 1st company? In that case then why did they get a contract in the first place?

No, this is about taking care of old friends - nothing more.

If you are reffering to SpaceX and flying manned in 2016.  Has SpaceX ever delivered a project on time? 
"Look at that! If anybody ever said, "you'll be sitting in a spacecraft naked with a 134-pound backpack on your knees charging it", I'd have said "Aw, get serious". - John Young - Apollo-16

Offline AncientU

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #181 on: 10/13/2014 04:34 pm »

The 1st company I mentioned plans to be flying manned in 2016, a year ahead of the ISS crew flight. NASA is in no danger - unless it doesn't trust the 1st company? In that case then why did they get a contract in the first place?

No, this is about taking care of old friends - nothing more.

If you are reffering to SpaceX and flying manned in 2016.  Has SpaceX ever delivered a project on time?

Isn't/wasn't 2016 the target date for NASA/LM/Boeing to deliver IOC for SLS/Orion?
Maybe SpaceX picking up human space flight responsibilities isn't needed, then...
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Offline Brovane

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #182 on: 10/13/2014 04:41 pm »

Isn't/wasn't 2016 the target date for NASA/LM/Boeing to deliver IOC for SLS/Orion?
Maybe SpaceX picking up human space flight responsibilities isn't needed, then...

Orion first crew flight isn't scheduled until around 2021.  Orion isn't a backup to the Commercial crew contract. 
"Look at that! If anybody ever said, "you'll be sitting in a spacecraft naked with a 134-pound backpack on your knees charging it", I'd have said "Aw, get serious". - John Young - Apollo-16

Offline clongton

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #183 on: 10/13/2014 04:45 pm »

Isn't/wasn't 2016 the target date for NASA/LM/Boeing to deliver IOC for SLS/Orion?
Maybe SpaceX picking up human space flight responsibilities isn't needed, then...

Orion first crew flight isn't scheduled until around 2021.  Orion isn't a backup to the Commercial crew contract. 

It was supposed to be. That's how badly NASA completely screwed it up - royally.
Chuck - DIRECT co-founder
I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline Brovane

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #184 on: 10/13/2014 04:55 pm »

It was supposed to be. That's how badly NASA completely screwed it up - royally.

Which is why the Boeing bid was accepted for the Commerical Crew Contract.  Boeing know's how to deliver large Aerospace contracts ontime.  SpaceX hasn't delivered a project on time.  NASA needed to have a commercial crew contract partner that can deliver ontime and not be distracted by other things, like the President of the company going around and talking about colonizing Mars etc.  Boeing is expensive but they will deliver on time and have the Aerospace project management skills that SpaceX and SNC lack.  They also don't have all the distractions that SpaceX has.  Not saying that SpaceX will not deliver on time but if they do, it will be a first.  SpaceX needs to demonstrate better project management skills and planning that it has so far in its company history if it wants to compete in the same space as the big firms like Boeing for govt contracts.     
"Look at that! If anybody ever said, "you'll be sitting in a spacecraft naked with a 134-pound backpack on your knees charging it", I'd have said "Aw, get serious". - John Young - Apollo-16

Offline Lars-J

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #185 on: 10/13/2014 05:06 pm »

It was supposed to be. That's how badly NASA completely screwed it up - royally.

Which is why the Boeing bid was accepted for the Commerical Crew Contract.  Boeing know's how to deliver large Aerospace contracts ontime.  SpaceX hasn't delivered a project on time.

When did Boeing last deliver a large Aerospace contract ontime?

Offline clongton

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #186 on: 10/13/2014 05:07 pm »

It was supposed to be. That's how badly NASA completely screwed it up - royally.

Which is why the Boeing bid was accepted for the Commerical Crew Contract.  Boeing know's how to deliver large Aerospace contracts ontime.  SpaceX hasn't delivered a project on time.

When did Boeing last deliver a large Aerospace contract ontime?

They haven't - not in living memory.
Chuck - DIRECT co-founder
I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline ncb1397

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #187 on: 10/13/2014 05:09 pm »

It was supposed to be. That's how badly NASA completely screwed it up - royally.

Boeing is expensive but they will deliver on time and have the Aerospace project management skills that SpaceX and SNC lack.  They also don't have all the distractions that SpaceX has. 

Boeing has more distractions. SpaceX is tightly focused around launch vehicles and a few specific spacecraft designs. In fact, commercial crew itself is a distraction from Boeing's 5,000 airliner backlog.

Quote
Boeing know's how to deliver large Aerospace contracts ontime. [snip] Boeing is expensive but they will deliver on time and have the Aerospace project management skills that SpaceX and SNC lack.

Boeing doesn't deliver every project on time. Statistically it is far from assured.

Offline Brovane

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #188 on: 10/13/2014 05:29 pm »

They haven't - not in living memory.

You must have a short memory.

You can look at the 777 airliner and 747 development for well managed projects and delivered on time.  The Delta-IV and the SaturnV-SIC stage.  The F-18 Super Hornet was also delivered on time. 
"Look at that! If anybody ever said, "you'll be sitting in a spacecraft naked with a 134-pound backpack on your knees charging it", I'd have said "Aw, get serious". - John Young - Apollo-16

Offline Norm Hartnett

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #189 on: 10/13/2014 05:38 pm »
In my opinion NASA's assertion is bogus and I call it BS. There are 2 companies involved, one of which is already proceeding to manned flight with or without NASA's money. So a 100 day delay would not affect that company in any way. The other company has made no bones that without the NASA contract it would likely shut down its spacecraft effort and let the people involved in it go. That is the only setback - that company won't go forward without NASA's money promised up front.

In my opinion this entire thing reeks of corruption at the highest level of NASA, that company and both their Congressional lackeys.

Never attribute to corruption that which is adequately explained by bureaucratic risk aversion.

(Norm's corollary to Hanlon's Razor)
“You can’t take a traditional approach and expect anything but the traditional results, which has been broken budgets and not fielding any flight hardware.” Mike Gold - Apollo, STS, CxP; those that don't learn from history are condemned to repeat it: SLS.

Offline clongton

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #190 on: 10/13/2014 05:45 pm »

They haven't - not in living memory.

You must have a short memory.

You can look at the 777 airliner and 747 development for well managed projects and delivered on time.  The Delta-IV and the SaturnV-SIC stage.  The F-18 Super Hornet was also delivered on time. 

No they weren't. You need to look at the "original" schedule, not the ones that were published close to delivery of the product.
Chuck - DIRECT co-founder
I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline Brovane

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #191 on: 10/13/2014 05:51 pm »

No they weren't. You need to look at the "original" schedule, not the ones that were published close to delivery of the product.

Sure share with me the original schedule then since it appears that you are in the know and I am wrong. 
"Look at that! If anybody ever said, "you'll be sitting in a spacecraft naked with a 134-pound backpack on your knees charging it", I'd have said "Aw, get serious". - John Young - Apollo-16

Online LouScheffer

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #192 on: 10/13/2014 05:54 pm »

They haven't - not in living memory.

You must have a short memory.

You can look at the 777 airliner and 747 development for well managed projects and delivered on time.  The Delta-IV and the SaturnV-SIC stage.  The F-18 Super Hornet was also delivered on time. 
You have a long and rather selective memory.  The 777 went into customer service 19 years ago, the same year the Super Hornet first flew.

The 747, and the Saturn first stage. were designed in the 1960s.  I'd be amazed if anyone responsible for managing these projects is still at Boeing.

About the Delta-IV, "The first flight of Delta 4 has been delayed several times this year because of various technical problems. It was originally supposed to have flown before the Atlas 5."  from a Seattle paper, http://www.seattlepi.com/business/article/Boeing-has-a-lot-riding-on-the-Delta-4-rocket-1100684.php

 The 787, a much more recent yardstick of ability to deliver on time, was several years late.

Offline Brovane

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #193 on: 10/13/2014 05:55 pm »
Boeing doesn't deliver every project on time. Statistically it is far from assured.

Nothing is assured but Boeing has the history and experience that Space doesn't.   

http://aviationweek.com/space/why-nasa-rejected-sierra-nevadas-commercial-crew-vehicle

Commenting on the two winning capsule concepts, Gerstenmaier clearly singles out the Boeing design for most praise, being “the strongest of all three proposals in both mission suitability and past performance. Boeing’s system offers the most useful inherent capabilities for operational flexibility in trading cargo and crew for individual missions. It is also based on a spacecraft design that is fairly mature in design.” He also points to Boeing’s “well-defined plan for addressing the specific issues from Phase 1,” and says of the three bidders Boeing “has the best management approach, with very comprehensive and integrated program management, and an effective organizational structure, further ensuring they will be able to accomplish the technical work in a manner that meets NASA’s standards.” Phase 1, the Certification Products Contract (CPC), covered hazard reports, plans for verification, validation and certification.
"Look at that! If anybody ever said, "you'll be sitting in a spacecraft naked with a 134-pound backpack on your knees charging it", I'd have said "Aw, get serious". - John Young - Apollo-16

Offline Brovane

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #194 on: 10/13/2014 06:02 pm »
You have a long and rather selective memory.  The 777 went into customer service 19 years ago, the same year the Super Hornet first flew.

The 747, and the Saturn first stage. were designed in the 1960s.  I'd be amazed if anyone responsible for managing these projects is still at Boeing.

About the Delta-IV, "The first flight of Delta 4 has been delayed several times this year because of various technical problems. It was originally supposed to have flown before the Atlas 5."  from a Seattle paper, http://www.seattlepi.com/business/article/Boeing-has-a-lot-riding-on-the-Delta-4-rocket-1100684.php

 The 787, a much more recent yardstick of ability to deliver on time, was several years late.

The problem is that SpaceX has never delivered on time.  NASA rated Boeing's technical, management and past performance to be superior to SpaceX. 

SpaceX needs to demonstrate the ability to more closely meet project deadlines and not be years off in it's deliverable dates.   

Quote
Discussing costs, Gerstenmaier says that “although SNC’s price is lower than Boeing’s price, its technical and management approaches and its past performance are not as high and I see considerably more schedule risk with its proposal. Both SNC and SpaceX had high past performance, and very good technical and management approaches, but SNC’s price is significantly higher than SpaceX’s price.”

 Touching on why Boeing received a $4.2 billion contract, versus $2.6 billion for SpaceX, he adds “I consider Boeing’s superior proposal, with regard to both its technical and management approach and its past performance, to be worth the additional price in comparison to the SNC proposal.”
"Look at that! If anybody ever said, "you'll be sitting in a spacecraft naked with a 134-pound backpack on your knees charging it", I'd have said "Aw, get serious". - John Young - Apollo-16

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #195 on: 10/13/2014 06:05 pm »
A concern over 100 days means that there is no margin built in a program that will be 2 years behind due to lack of full presidential requested funding by Congress. If it means buying another Soyuz ride for 70M compared to the CC program in the billions, so be it in search of the truth...

Yes, you are correct that funding, and NASA trying to deal with TWO companies will be the biggest factor - but 100 days is a HUGE amount fo time.   Even without the inevitable burps and issues along the way throwing away 3 months certainly guarantees at least one more launch provided by Soyuz.  That is significant money and political/national prestige there.
Like I said above in post #168 "that ship has sailed" and Joe the plumber is the US couldn't care less...

Half true.  Joe the plumber is not interested in what NASA hopes to do at the ISS in ~4 years time.  He knows that the Shuttles were cancelled because one crashed and has accepted that there will be a delay before the replacement flies.  In 4 years time, when the replacement does not fly, he will be less forgiving.

Online SWGlassPit

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #196 on: 10/13/2014 06:19 pm »
Half true.  Joe the plumber is not interested in what NASA hopes to do at the ISS in ~4 years time.  He knows that the Shuttles were cancelled because one crashed and has accepted that there will be a delay before the replacement flies.  In 4 years time, when the replacement does not fly, he will be less forgiving.

To be completely true, Joe the plumber thinks NASA was cancelled altogether.

Offline cambrianera

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #197 on: 10/13/2014 06:45 pm »
Boeing is already late on the KC-46 tanker.
http://seattletimes.com/html/businesstechnology/2024732896_boeingtankerxml.html
And this happens with an old and very well known airplane.
Oh to be young again. . .

Offline Brovane

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #198 on: 10/13/2014 07:00 pm »
Boeing is already late on the KC-46 tanker.
http://seattletimes.com/html/businesstechnology/2024732896_boeingtankerxml.html
And this happens with an old and very well known airplane.

The USAF delivery date is in 2017 for the first operational aircraft.   It cannot be late for a contract delivery date that is still in the future.   
"Look at that! If anybody ever said, "you'll be sitting in a spacecraft naked with a 134-pound backpack on your knees charging it", I'd have said "Aw, get serious". - John Young - Apollo-16

Offline cambrianera

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #199 on: 10/13/2014 07:11 pm »
"Boeing said Wednesday that the first test plane for its KC-46 Air Force aerial-refueling tanker program is expected to fly in late November or early December.

That’s a delay of two months or more beyond the projection Boeing’s leadership gave in July, when Chief Financial Officer Greg Smith predicted on an earnings call with analysts that first flight would be late in the third quarter."

I don't know if they will recover, but now Boeing has a delay (i.e. it's late) on a projection done in July.
And originally the first flight was foreseen for April 2014, go figure.
Oh to be young again. . .

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