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General Discussion => Polls Section => Topic started by: tigerade on 12/20/2013 10:57 pm

Title: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: tigerade on 12/20/2013 10:57 pm
Number of SpaceX flights in 2014

Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30684.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27858.0

Salo's US Flight Schedule
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.0

SpaceX Official Flight Manifest
http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php

Anik's Schedule of ISS flight events
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=61.0

NASA's Consolidated Launch Schedule
http://www.nasa.gov/missions/highlights/schedule.html

Current 2014 SpaceX Flights Scheduled (According to Salo's Thread)
NET January - Thaicom 6 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
February 22 - Dragon SpX-3 (CRS3), Hermes 2, LMRSat, TechCube 1, All-Star (THEIA) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET March - Orbcomm G2 (x8) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
April - AsiaSat 8 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
May - AsiaSat 6 (Thaicom 7) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
June 6 - Dragon SpX-4 (CRS4) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET 2nd quarter - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Vandenberg SLC-4E
September 12 - Dragon SpX-5 (CRS5) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
December 5 - Dragon SpX-6 (CRS6) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
December - Turkmensat - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or Ariane 5 ECA)
NET December - Orbcomm G2 (x9) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
TBD - Space Systems/Loral payload - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40

Poll Rules
- 30 days allowed for voting
- This allows time for those out of town during the holidays
- This also prevents the thread from going on so long to make the poll unfair to early voters.
- With Thaicom pushed to Jan 2014, everyone gets a freebie launch
- No do-overs, I can't change anyone's vote and it wouldn't be fair anyway
- Please PM me with any questions/comments/concerns.  I've done what I can to make this orderly.
- UTC time is considered for any launches on Dec 31st

Guidelines for "Number of Launches" thread
A "launch" in this case means:
- The liftoff of a launch vehicle from the pad, with a mission that includes the objectives of second stage cutoff and delivering a payload to orbit
- This includes any CRS Dragon missions, Commsats, mass simulators
- Suborbital missions such as Grasshopper and F9R tests DO NOT count.
- Launch abort tests also DO NOT count.
- Any confusion on this, please send me a PM before posting.

Rationale for "Number of Launches" thread
The original purpose of this thread was to get an intelligent discussion going on the number of launches that would actually take place.  At the beginning of 2012 and 2013, it was pretty unclear how many launches would take place those respective years.  Now at the beginning of 2014, it seems with the new Falcon 9 v1.1 rocket that SpaceX has gotten to the point where it's mass producing rockets and is ready to ramp up it's launch rate.  We are going to see how it goes and if there is no longer interest in this next year, this will be the last of 3 threads.  We will make these on popular demand.

My vote on "Number of Flights"
I am confident this time around that SpaceX has the production capacity and processes to support a higher flight rate.  I did not feel that way about Falcon 9 v1.0 but I do now about v1.1.  It seems that SpaceX has matured their procedures and are closing the times between flights.  I voted for 3 flights in 2012, and then 4 flights for 2013.  So I was off just by 1 each year.  For 2014, I am betting 10 launches.  Yes, that probably sounds bullish.  However, I am really confident that the major hurdles have been completed for the company.  I am making 12 slots as some of you may be even more optimistic than me.  And remember, everybody gets a freebie.  The Thaicom launch is pretty much a given.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Joffan on 12/20/2013 11:03 pm
I'll go with 8, roughly double what happened this year (counting Thaicom as nearly-2013 and also helping my 2014 number :) )
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Seer on 12/20/2013 11:04 pm
Yay, the poll has finally arrived!
I voted for 4. The reason? Spacex has never launched faster than 1 rocket per quarter so far. Spacex has also only slowly ramped up its launch rate from 2 in 2012 to 3 in 2013, so 4 in 2014 sounds reasonable.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Danderman on 12/20/2013 11:09 pm
Yay, the poll has finally arrived!
I voted for 4. The reason? Spacex has never launched faster than 1 rocket per quarter so far. Spacex has also only slowly ramped up its launch rate from 2 in 2012 to 3 in 2013, so 4 in 2014 sounds reasonable.

A lot depends on the Thaicom launch, so I will wait until early January to vote.

Right now, I am leaning towards 4, but if there is a quick Thaicom launch, I would vote for 5.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: QuantumG on 12/20/2013 11:26 pm
I voted for 5 last year. I'll vote for 5 this year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mongo62 on 12/20/2013 11:28 pm
It might be a good idea to specify exactly what launch time counts as being included in 2014: local time or universal time. Just in case another situation with a launch attempt late on December 31 local time arises.

I went with 9 launches. I hope for more, but am allowing for a certain degree of slippage.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Elmar Moelzer on 12/20/2013 11:49 pm
I voted for 5 last year. I'll vote for 5 this year.
Me too!
 ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/20/2013 11:49 pm
I'm not voting until the very end. I want to make sure I count how many cores are in process, where they are, etc... I want every launch I accounted for. But I expect to vote for 6.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Barrie on 12/20/2013 11:52 pm
I've gone for 8, which my gut tells me is the limit of 'very optimistic', and the threshold of 'wildly optimistic'.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Arthree on 12/20/2013 11:59 pm
I'm going with 8.

Thaicom 6 is a given.
CRS3 might get pushed back a bit.
Orbcomm #1 will probably launch in 2014.
Turkmensat -- SpaceX isn't going to let this one default to Ariane V.
Asiasat 8 and Thaicom 7 -- unless something drastic happens, I don't see any reason these would get pushed to 2015
CRS4 will definitely happen in 2014, CRS5 probably late in the year, and I think CRS6 will move to 2015.

Falcon Heavy will get pushed to 2015.  Orbcomm #2 is already NET December, so probably 2015.  The Space Systems/Loral one doesn't have an NET date.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: QuantumG on 12/21/2013 12:05 am
unless something drastic happens

So far they've found something drastic every year. :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Arthree on 12/21/2013 12:16 am
unless something drastic happens

So far they've found something drastic every year. :)
Yeah but I'm a dreamer. ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 12/21/2013 12:19 am
trying to visualize the potential launches gave me a headache, so I did this chart... not very fancy put gives a clearer picture of what is dreamed of at SpaceX... I'm going to wait until Thaicom-6 launches, as I believe that the rest of first and second quarters are predicated on that launches success... and the rest of the year, will firm up by July, though I don't know how they are planning December launch force schedule... thinking of our Padrat there... that is going to be brutal...

Leaning towards 9 max... but no more... 10+ will be a miracle of work scheduling...

Gramps
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AncientU on 12/21/2013 12:27 am
I believe in miracles... Ten -- nine at LC-40, one at Vandenberg.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: savuporo on 12/21/2013 01:22 am
Missing poll option: beating all time high record of Soyuz-U.

So I voted 1
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: oiorionsbelt on 12/21/2013 01:51 am
I feel cheated. :)
How can one show true optimism when the poll doesn't even allow for what is on the SpaceX manifest.
This is from the SpaceX website.
So I'm going with 15 launches, like their manifest shows.


2013   THAICOM (THAILAND)   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9

2014   ORBCOMM   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS – FLIGHT 3   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   ORBCOMM   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   FALCON HEAVY DEMO FLIGHT   VANDENBERG    FALCON HEAVY
2014   ASIASAT   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   ASIASAT   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS – FLIGHT 4   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS – FLIGHT 5   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS – FLIGHT 6   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   SPACE SYSTEMS/LORAL   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   THALES ALENIA SPACE (TURKMENISTAN)   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   DSCOVR (USAF)   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   CONAE (ARGENTINA)   VANDENBERG    FALCON 9
2014   ASIA BROADCAST SATELLITE/SATMEX   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 12/21/2013 01:57 am
I feel cheated. :)
How can one show true optimism when the poll doesn't even allow for what is on the SpaceX manifest.
This is from the SpaceX website.
So I'm going with 15 launches, like their manifest shows.


2013   THAICOM (THAILAND)   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9

2014   ORBCOMM   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS – FLIGHT 3   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   ORBCOMM   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   FALCON HEAVY DEMO FLIGHT   VANDENBERG    FALCON HEAVY
2014   ASIASAT   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   ASIASAT   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS – FLIGHT 4   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS – FLIGHT 5   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS – FLIGHT 6   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   SPACE SYSTEMS/LORAL   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   THALES ALENIA SPACE (TURKMENISTAN)   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   DSCOVR (USAF)   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   CONAE (ARGENTINA)   VANDENBERG    FALCON 9
2014   ASIA BROADCAST SATELLITE/SATMEX   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9

Now this would explain the summer / fall gap in my chart... thx for posting this... now, can the poll be changed to reflect this information, or is it set in stone...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: oiorionsbelt on 12/21/2013 01:59 am
It was a little tongue in cheek Gramps. :)  (but we'd all be over the moon, closer to Mars, so to speak, if it happened.)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 12/21/2013 02:06 am
It was a little tongue in cheek Gramps. :)  (but we'd all be over the moon, so to speak, if it happened.)

tongue firmly planted in cheek or not, there is that gap, and unless one postulates summer holidays or hurricane season, there is no good reason for it, after a halcyon first half of the year in launches, followed by an end of year traffic jam on LC-40... are they even physically capable of building and launching 12+ (not specifying success rate) in one year yet, or is that wishing for ponies and unicorns... and that is being seriously asked...

edit, proof reading ;-)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Xspace_engineerX on 12/21/2013 02:07 am
Pshh. 12 launches . 1 per month at the SES8 to thaicom 6 1 month turnaround.

I'm an optimist.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: deltaV on 12/21/2013 03:22 am
Let's make the "12" option be "12 or more" and the "1" option be "1 or less" so all options are covered.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: mr. mark on 12/21/2013 03:33 am
I'm picking 6 on the conservative side. Maybe 7 or 8 but, really guys and girls that's stretching it. Look at it this way. They ALMOST got to 4 launches in 2013. SpaceX achieved 3 launches. They have to still do the pad abort and the in flight abort in 2014 as well. That's why I picked 6 launches not counting the in flight abort.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: averagespacejoe on 12/21/2013 04:32 am
I am going to vote for 6 they might push 7 and that would be great but I would happy with them doubling their annual launch rate.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: sdsds on 12/21/2013 04:35 am
I like this logic:

Thaicom 6 is a given.
CRS3 might get pushed back a bit.
Orbcomm #1 will probably launch in 2014.
Turkmensat -- SpaceX isn't going to let this one default to Ariane V.
Asiasat 8 and Thaicom 7 -- unless something drastic happens, I don't see any reason these would get pushed to 2015
CRS4 will definitely happen in 2014, CRS5 probably late in the year, and I think CRS6 will move to 2015.

But I also like this bit:
They have to still do the pad abort and the in flight abort in 2014 as well.

So I'm leaning towards seven launches that would count for the purpose of this poll. But I'm not voting yet; something might happen between now and the time Thaicom 6 reaches orbit!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 12/21/2013 04:54 am
Sure, but who cares what definition is picked, as long as it's specified beforehand (and he DID specify beforehand).

Well, obviously, I care.

Specifying it beforehand mitigates the issue, though.  If it's unspecified, then it's perfectly reasonable to argue EST rather than UTC.  But if he sets his own rules in the post that contains the poll, then it becomes a poll according to his new rules, whether they're logical or not.

For instance, tigerade is also wrong to exclude the launch abort test from the list of launches, but he clearly lists that as a rule in his post rather than using an unspoken assumption.  So what he's really polling is not "number of SpaceX launches in 2014", but rather "number of SpaceX launches in 2014 excluding the launch abort test".
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: tigerade on 12/21/2013 05:23 am
Let's make the "12" option be "12 or more" and the "1" option be "1 or less" so all options are covered.

I think "more than 12" is beyond the likelyhood of unicorns in the flame trench, but I went ahead and edited that in.

Quote from: Sesquipedalian
For instance, tigerade is also wrong to exclude the launch abort test from the list of launches, but he clearly lists that as a rule in his post rather than using an unspoken assumption.  So what he's really polling is not "number of SpaceX launches in 2014", but rather "number of SpaceX launches in 2014 excluding the launch abort test".

I also put in to PM me with any questions/comments/concerns.  Also it shows "orbital flights" in the thread title and the guidelines so it's pretty clear that launch abort tests don't count here. 

Also, with the new launch date as NET January, I think we're out of the woods on the whole UTC vs. EST argument, but I went ahead and put UTC on there.

Again guys, please send me a PM with any concerns on the poll... it gives me more room to address concerns rather than on here.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: meekGee on 12/21/2013 05:40 am
This is purely about logistics.   Last year doesn't imply anything, since they were building/modifying pads, changing from F9.0 to F9.1 etc.

This year the Vandenberg pad is under-utilized, but this diverts the burden of FH from the schedule.

So for 12 flights: 2 from Vandenberg, and 10 from CCAFS. This will depend mainly on whether the 3 ISS bound flights and the abort tests hold up traffic.  Since I think they can beat 4-week turn around now, there's still room for in the year for the 7 remaining flights.

This is all assuming (hoping) that there are no mishaps of course.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Pete on 12/21/2013 05:44 am
I vote 7.


Assuming no catastrophic failures, and no more than 2 glitches-that-can-be-fixed-but-cause-delays,
I think they will launch 8, but the one for flight abort test doesn't count, so 7.

I would be very surprised if the Falcon Heavy actually comes in on schedule.

I expect to see interesting stuff from GH2.
I expect to see success in first stage recovery & landing, but not actual reuse just yet.

Quite frankly, i expect to see a lot of very interesting stuff happen in the coming year!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: hop on 12/21/2013 05:46 am
Voted 7. Anywhere from 5-8 wouldn't surprise me too much. Less if there is a major failure.

Assuming everything NET Dec in Salo's list will drift into 2015.

Expect Thaicom 6, Spx 3 - Spx 5, and one Orbcomm. No strong opinion on which of the others will fly.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/21/2013 06:07 am
I am not so sure more than two Dragons will fly to orbit this year. Three dragons is a lot, given they have lots of other stuff on their plate at that site.

Thaicom 6, Spx-3, Orbcomm twice... Asiasat, Spx-4... I'm not sure what else. That's a LOT of flights in 1year for 1 pad. I haven't seen ANY hardware for Falcon Heavy, yet, so I can't see how that can fly when they haven't even tested its test stand, yet. If they flip conae with Falcon Heavy demo, then I can see 7 flights this year. That is a LOT of flights.

Falcon Heavy is a very big rocket. I need to see parts for it before I go and say it'll fly in 2014.

Only 2 of their flights in 2013 were from the Cape. But some people expect 10 of them next year??? That's a crazy ramp-up. 6 is already stretching it.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 12/21/2013 06:17 am
I voted 7...

No real definitive reasononing behind it. They seem to have upped their launch rate, and have a solid manifest. But 7 somehow feels right. I would love to be pleasantly surprised with more.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Zed_Noir on 12/21/2013 06:18 am
Will vote after Thaicom 6.That should give some indication of the launch tempo.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 12/21/2013 06:26 am
I went with 8. F9 1.1 is performing well and has already launched from both Vandenburg and the Cape (so infrastructure is in place). Production is well in-hand, so I think it comes down to how quick SpaceX can move from one launch to the next. I'm optimistic on that because I think SpaceX have already geared-up for it. It's just with infrastructure issues and natural caution, as F9 1.1 has come on-line, that they haven't been able to show what they are capable of.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/21/2013 06:42 am
Other big things SpaceX has on it's plate besides strictly orbit launching of rockets:

Falcon Heavy development. Biggest rocket since Shuttle, Buran, N-1, and Saturn V. Basically, biggest rocket developed since the end of the Cold War. And we haven't seen any metal, yet. I think they can do it, but I'm skeptical it'll actually launch this coming year (but within the realm of possibility). Lots of issues could turn up in testing this huge rocket.

Dragon crew development. Pad abort, inflight abort. Huge milestones. Lots and lots of work. In-flight abort is practically an orbital launch.

F9R, aka Grasshopper 2. Testing in McGregor followed by testing in New Mexico. Tremendously exciting work, nearly at the scale of a real orbital launch. May do several flights this year. Also, they're going to try to recover and possibly even reuse the first stages starting with (we hope) Spx-3. This means getting a landing pad approved and ready.

Possibly starting work on LC-39A. Possibly work on the Texas pad.

Possibly work on Raptor.

This is in addition to launching about half a dozen rockets, twice as many as they've ever done before.

Heck, with all that on their plate, "just" 5 flights wouldn't be surprising.

I know they've grown a lot and thus have higher capacity, but this is a LOT of work to get done in one year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MikeAtkinson on 12/21/2013 06:50 am
If the core manufacturing rate is really 12/year now, rising to 18/year mid 2014 and 24/year by end 2014 this implies they will have ~15 cores to launch in 2014. With one core or the launch abort test, one for a GH2 replacement (after it crashes) and 3 for FH this implies ~10 launches to orbit nextyear.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: RonM on 12/21/2013 07:03 am
I voted for 8.

The F9 v1.1 production seems to be going well, but I would expect the December missions to slide into 2015. I'm not sure the FH will be launched in 2014.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Kaputnik on 12/21/2013 09:06 am
Voted for 5. I think SpaceX will still want to analyse data between launches and there will inevitably be glitches and delays. BTW I voted 3 for 2013.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rockinghorse on 12/21/2013 10:18 am
I am betting that SpaceX will succeed in partial reusability, so I voted for 20±5 launches for the 2014.

Also SpaceX already has the largest production capacity of rockets in the world, therefore I would say that even with expendable rockets they can achieve 12+ launches, so I thought that 12+ is very safe bet.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: aga on 12/21/2013 10:46 am
Also SpaceX already has the largest production capacity of rockets in the world
rsc energia?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: PerW on 12/21/2013 10:47 am
I voted for 8.

And I guess successful first stage landing, FH on the pad and one new wild rocket/motor or technique proposal by Musk.  8)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jcc on 12/21/2013 11:57 am
I said 10 because I don't want to sound like a amazing people.

It seems to me that they are limited in part now because of hangar space at LC-40, but that's not the main reason, logic tells me that they are limited in key people, in other words they want to have their most experienced people working on every launch, and they need to make the launches routine and predictable enough that less experienced people can be trained to take charge of processing on multiple launches at the same time. I am predicting that will happen, but will not be fully realized for the 2014 manifest.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cartman on 12/21/2013 12:07 pm
I voted for 12(or more), given that they have 15 launches in their official manifest, and that they seem to be able to support a 1 month turnaround, plus they will get faster during 2014(and getting faster is one of their core objectives)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: woods170 on 12/21/2013 12:07 pm
Voted 6. SpaceX has been incredibly lucky so far, but something is, one way or the other, going to go wrong.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Halidon on 12/21/2013 04:15 pm
I voted 7. I don't think a much higher rate is out of the question but I'm sitting with 7 as a reasonable ramp-up from 2013-14. Also, the past two years this poll has rolled I've shot high, shooting low and being pleasantly surprised this time wouldn't be the worst thing ever. ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 12/21/2013 04:21 pm
I voted 7. I don't think a much higher rate is out of the question but I'm sitting with 7 as a reasonable ramp-up from 2013-14. Also, the past two years this poll has rolled I've shot high, shooting low and being pleasantly surprised this time wouldn't be the worst thing ever. ;D

7 plus -1 abort test
(6 F9 1 F9H)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 12/21/2013 04:23 pm
I'm going to be conservative and vote for six orbital launches in CY2014.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jamsta on 12/21/2013 05:10 pm
Heart: 8 launches
Head: 4 launches

Hoping for no issues, but expect scaling problems.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: mheney on 12/21/2013 05:21 pm
Went with 8 - I'd like it to be more - but things always crop up.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Maciej Olesinski on 12/21/2013 05:29 pm
Voted 7. Lately we can see incressing number of flights but I am kind of sceptical.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: llanitedave on 12/21/2013 06:32 pm
Voted 8.  It seems like a number of their delays so far have been due to operations at CCAFS impinging on their schedule, as well as problems with ISS.  I'm not sure that the Cape is capable of supporting high launch rates at this point.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Elvis in Space on 12/21/2013 07:31 pm
I'm going with 8. Only two Dragons to ISS this year and I'd be a little surprised if FH flies in 2014 but could easily be wrong about both. If I undershoot this year I'll be a happy man.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/21/2013 07:41 pm
Voted 6. SpaceX has been incredibly lucky so far, but something is, one way or the other, going to go wrong.
It can't just be pure luck that they haven't had a major failure since Falcon 1 flight 3. It's got to be lots and lots of ground-testing and also flight-testing future capabilities when they have the performance margin to give it a shot on missions that don't strictly require it. Obviously, they haven't had significantly bad luck, either, but you don't get that many successful launches by relying mostly on luck, you just don't.

That said, I think you're right. In 10 or so launches (if you include optimistic numbers and maybe F9R and abort tests) and an underlying reliability of 95% (which is pretty dang good in this business, but I'd argue that the EELVs are probably better right now, around 97-99% underlying reliability I'd estimate), you have about a 40% chance of a failure. Given the experimental nature of the abort tests and the F9R tests and first stage recovery and a possible Falcon Heavy flight, I'd put a dramatic failure at probably around 50/50 for 2014. But for actual operational Falcon 9 v1.1 flights (of which I think there'll be 5 or 6), I think the probability is significantly less, maybe 20-25% chance of happening in 2014. Not negligible, but I don't think it's fair to bet on a failure unless you have good reason (based on probabilities) to think it's greater than 50%, because otherwise it just looks like you're looking for a chance to gloat.

(and I'm talking about major failures, here, not just a little lower orbit or a failure to place secondaries or something of that nature)

SpaceX still tests the crap out of their rockets on the ground, and until they stop doing that or start having several failures, I'm going to assume they have pretty good underlying reliability after the first few launches in a new vehicle (defined as near 95%).

The improved thrust of Merlin 1D should help improve engine-out scenarios, too. Every flight gives them lots of data to improve reliability, and their vertical integration gives them a pretty unique opportunity to carefully check everything.

Which isn't to say that I think Ariane or ULA or Orbital are inferior to SpaceX's reliability, just that I think SpaceX is near to being in the same league.... ULA and Ariane have very long streaks of failure-free launches, and that's really hard to argue against. And you've got to hand it to Orbital for being able to deliver, IMHO.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/21/2013 08:12 pm
By my generous definition of major failure, the EELVs have basically no major full failures. The inaugural Delta IV Heavy flight--the only launch counted as a failure out of 24 attempts--made it to orbit but had a severe underperformance that left its boilerplate satellite in a much lower than planned orbit and the secondaries on a suborbital trajectory, but it still basically worked. This is a similar story to the inaugural Falcon 9 v1.0 flight, which had a failure to relight but which still reached a stable orbit with its main boilerplate payload, and most consider that flight a success. Since it's an inaugural flight, I don't think we should judge the flight based on whether they put a boilerplate or an experimental satellite payload on it, so I consider both as qualified successes and neither as full major failures.

And the only Atlas V partial failure failed to reach its fully intended orbit, but the payload was able to compensate... I consider that as not a major failure, since the customer considered it basically a success. This is analogous to the Falcon 9 v1.0 flight which had the engine-out and put the secondaries on a stable but still short-lived and lower than planned orbit but the primary mission had a full success...

How much of a success or failure you count these flights is partially in the eye of the beholder, but clearly none are dramatic full failures. This sort of resiliency is better than a brittle architecture which 100% works or 100% fails, in my opinion, because it reduces risk and gives a better chance of improving success in the future in a cost-optimal manner...

I mean, we don't count it as an airplane crash if an airplane has to do a flyaround making everyone late or even if a airplane is diverted to another airport. The most important thing is survival of the main payload, IMHO. It's important to make distinctions between partial success and full success and full failures. It provides extra information on the underlying reliability that can otherwise get hidden by luck in a more brittle architecture.

Same deal with Shuttle... we should count STS-51-F not as a full success but not as a full failure. It achieved orbit and the main payload survived (and the mission was basically completed), in spite of technically being an abort-to-orbit. (A little aside: Atlas V's partial success is counted as a failure on Atlas V's Wikipedia page in spite of the analogous STS-51-F counting as a success on Space Shuttle's Wikipedia page...)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: savuporo on 12/21/2013 08:15 pm
I think we also need the poll on how many pages this thread will be before the poll gets closed.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: oiorionsbelt on 12/21/2013 08:16 pm

And Elon Musk's 'other business' Tesla mass produces over 500 aluminum vehicles/month... So Elon knows production...
At least 10 flights in 2014
F9 production, is run by the person who used to run production of Mini for BMW.

"In 2011, some 3,800 employees manufactured over 191,000 customised MINI automobiles at one of the most modern BMW Group production sites."

http://www.bmwgroup.com/e/0_0_www_bmwgroup_com/produktion/produktionsnetzwerk/produktionsstandorte/werk_oxford.html
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 12/21/2013 08:26 pm
I expect that Elon Musk and SpaceX will be limited by production capacity, not pad/vehicle launch operations/turnaround time.
And Elon Musk's 'other business' Tesla mass produces over 500 aluminum vehicles/month... So Elon knows production...
At least 10 flights in 2014

If this were a production question, I might agree.  But that doesn't include vehicle and spacecraft integration, getting a range spot, weather, problems with the vehicle or space craft, engine and stage testing, and the rest of the process, which includes stuff relating to ISS when it comes to Dragon flights.  Just running F9s off the assembly line isn't the limiting factor in my opinion.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/21/2013 08:32 pm
I expect that Elon Musk and SpaceX will be limited by production capacity, not pad/vehicle launch operations/turnaround time.
And Elon Musk's 'other business' Tesla mass produces over 500 aluminum vehicles/month... So Elon knows production...
At least 10 flights in 2014

If this were a production question, I might agree.  But that doesn't include vehicle and spacecraft integration, getting a range spot, weather, problems with the vehicle or space craft, engine and stage testing, and the rest of the process, which includes stuff relating to ISS when it comes to Dragon flights.  Just running F9s off the assembly line isn't the limiting factor in my opinion.
I'm not sure I agree. While ultimately there's no hard limit anywhere, here (they can always add more shifts or factory space), I haven't seen evidence that they can build 'em as fast as they claim. Then again, production probably hasn't been their bottleneck for quite a while, so they probably see no reason to produce them that fast, yet.

I think that production is somewhat of a bottleneck when you get to 10 flights a year. First stage reuse would help that problem.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: savuporo on 12/21/2013 08:34 pm
If this were a production question, I might agree.  But that doesn't include vehicle and spacecraft integration, getting a range spot, weather, problems with the vehicle or space craft, engine and stage testing, and the rest of the process, which includes stuff relating to ISS when it comes to Dragon flights.  Just running F9s off the assembly line isn't the limiting factor in my opinion.
Exactly. Getting a specialized large air cargo or shipping company top operations lead would be beneficial, at this point. Or someone who worked at Plesetsk 30 years ago.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: oiorionsbelt on 12/21/2013 08:35 pm
If the core manufacturing rate is really 12/year now, rising to 18/year mid 2014 and 24/year by end 2014
Is there a source for this?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 12/21/2013 08:53 pm
If the core manufacturing rate is really 12/year now, rising to 18/year mid 2014 and 24/year by end 2014
Is there a source for this?

"We now have Falcon 9 and Dragon in steady production at approximately one F9/Dragon every three months. The F9 production rate doubles to one every six weeks in 2012. A few failures along the way will at most result in a slowdown of a few months."..


http://www.space.com/10443-spacex-ceo-elon-musk-master-private-space-dragons.html

nevermind..  bad ref..


ok  round two ...   
" She says SpaceX is currently producing one vehicle per month, but that number is expected to increase to “18 per year in the next couple of quarters.” By the end of 2014, she says SpaceX will produce 24 launch vehicles per year."

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/awx_11_24_2013_p0-640244.xml&p=2
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 12/21/2013 10:24 pm
I am betting that SpaceX will succeed in partial reusability, so I voted for 20±5 launches for the 2014.
Complete fantasy. It is even worse than taking manifest at face value (not noticing "hardware arrival on site").
You seem to not know that launching satellite is item with lead time in YEARS. What do you think these additional launches out of nowhere will launch? Air?
Beside that, first few recovered first stages will not be reused for real. In fact, I think earliest possible year for first actual launch with previously-launched first stage is 2016 (hey, idea for a new poll).

Back to poll itself. I will wait for Thaicom launch, obviously, and then vote. For now, preliminary vote is 7.

Assumptions:
* Thaicom will launch without problems.
* No complete failures, like Proton going kerbal or Sea Launch blowing up on pad few years ago.
* FH slips to 2015. Launches in December 2014 will slip to next year. Of course, some people consider fact that schedules move always to right absurd. ::)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 12/22/2013 12:26 am
Waiting for the Thaicom launch is so weaselly.

Voted 8

I could say that SpaceX will double their pace in 2014, and the have done most of the work on the fourth, so with a "free one" in January and double the "almost 4 " of 2013 that's about 8.  But that doesn't even convince me.

Looking at the manifest, there seem to be 8 flights that should be able to get off the pad.  It is likely that SpX-5 will slip into 2015.

Given that a dozen people have voted for the largest option, 1 through 12 doesn't seem enough, but the wildly optimistic will pile up at that end no matter what you do. 

Mainly I wanted to make my guess without thinking about it too much to see what others are thinking. 
Using the same math I used last year, admittedly prematurely with inadequate input, the "center of mass" is just over 8 launches.   

It will be interesting to see how the evolves over the course of the poll, and if we will be biting our nails next December to see if we meet or exceed our prediction.

With the pad and Max-Q abort tests and GH-2, 2014 should be another exciting year with some event every month.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: macpacheco on 12/22/2013 12:37 am
I voted 12+. I'm assuming this includes any flights that get to orbit, even if there's just one or two cubesats (or even nothing) on board.
I believe at some point they will do a re-usability long run test.
With just a tiny payload, it might be possible to do SSTO, specially if the we're running at 85% turns out to be real.
Give it a 50-50 chance my prediction will happen. I might fail miserably.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: QuantumG on 12/22/2013 12:40 am
I voted 12+. I'm assuming this includes any flights that get to orbit, even if there's just one or two cubesats (or even nothing) on board.
I believe at some point they will do a re-usability long run test.
With just a tiny payload, it might be possible to do SSTO, specially if the we're running at 85% turns out to be real.
Give it a 50-50 chance my prediction will happen. I might fail miserably.

Ha! I will happily send you a ham sandwich if SpaceX flies a single stage vehicle to orbit in 2014.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/22/2013 12:41 am
I voted 12+. I'm assuming this includes any flights that get to orbit, even if there's just one or two cubesats (or even nothing) on board.
I believe at some point they will do a re-usability long run test.
With just a tiny payload, it might be possible to do SSTO, specially if the we're running at 85% turns out to be real.
Give it a 50-50 chance my prediction will happen. I might fail miserably.
Why the heck would they want to do SSTO? Sure, they probably could make it'd work (Merlin 1D and the first stage are very lightweight), but the payload would suck and it'd definitely be expendable. Has Elon ever said anything about SSTO to make you think SpaceX would attempt a stunt, would even WANT to do such a stunt?

(Sorry to jump on you like that, but it is funny to me how much people like SSTO as some sort of holy grail... The early Atlas vehicles already were nearly capable of it, though they shed most of their first stage engines to increase payload... Nobody does SSTO not because it can't be done but because there's no real good reason for it that justifies the huge payload hit compared to TSTO and beyond.)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: macpacheco on 12/22/2013 12:48 am
I voted 12+. I'm assuming this includes any flights that get to orbit, even if there's just one or two cubesats (or even nothing) on board.
I believe at some point they will do a re-usability long run test.
With just a tiny payload, it might be possible to do SSTO, specially if the we're running at 85% turns out to be real.
Give it a 50-50 chance my prediction will happen. I might fail miserably.
Why the heck would they want to do SSTO? Sure, they probably could make it'd work (Merlin 1D and the first stage are very lightweight), but the payload would suck and it'd definitely be expendable. Has Elon ever said anything about SSTO to make you think SpaceX would attempt a stunt, would even WANT to do such a stunt?

Reuse the first stage until it breaks. Don't need to waste the 2nd stage, nor figure out 2nd stage reuse until they mastered 1st stage reuse.

But it might be more logical to just keep flying a 1st stage to 100k ft in a GH2 plan.

Even without this, I think 12 launches are very possible. You guys just don't get the silicon valley mentality, this will progress linearly. Even if they cut 2 days on each launch, at year's end they could be doing one launch every 2-3 wks easy in the cape easy, plus as many launches as they manage to book out of Vandy.

I predict real soon SpaceX will let the world know publicly they have launch capacity to spare, they're waiting for customers to ship payloads, so they could squeeze a flexible customer over a 2 month period.

Edit... Not the reason I picked 12+, but here's a rational reason I have the winning ticket.
The odds of something going wrong once or twice resulting in 5-9 launches (as a whole) is high.
But between betting on everything going perfectly (12+) or having to pick randomly between 5 and 9 launches, the odds of 12+ are much better than 5,6,7,8,9 individually.

If I had the choice of 12+ or 7 to 9, 7 to 9 would have been a better bet.

None of you can reason statistically you made the best bet on probabilities.
Anyhow, we'll see.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 12/22/2013 12:50 am
I voted 12+. I'm assuming this includes any flights that get to orbit, even if there's just one or two cubesats (or even nothing) on board.
I believe at some point they will do a re-usability long run test.
With just a tiny payload, it might be possible to do SSTO, specially if the we're running at 85% turns out to be real.
Give it a 50-50 chance my prediction will happen. I might fail miserably.

RTFQ

It's not about getting to orbit.  It's about launching to an orbit.
"A re-useability long test run" doesn't count.  Launching towards orbit does, if they attempt to recover the first stage or not, and with a new or reused first stage.
The only place SSTO and SpaceX are discussed together is in this forum or some like it. 
As I said, overly optimistic people will pile up at the high end no matter how big that number is.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: R.Simko on 12/22/2013 01:16 am
I am amazed at the number of people that are voting for 8 an even more launches.  At this time, the best SpaceX has been able to do is 3 launches in a year, perhaps 4 this year, if they can get one more off before the year is over.  I am going to play it a little safer an have voted for 7 launches, although, I would be very happy to see those who voted 8 or more win.

Go SpaceX
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: QuantumG on 12/22/2013 01:31 am
perhaps 4 this year, if they can get one more off before the year is over.

That ship has sailed. They're publicly targeting Jan 3 now, and even that's not range confirmed yet.

The count for 2013 is now closed. It was 3.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 12/22/2013 01:36 am
Ok, no science here.  Going to go for roughly a double up on 2013 so 8 assuming the payloads are ready of course.
I don't expect anything drastic to derail operations, I just think that it'll still take SpaceX a year to get into the one-a-month or better groove and I have no inside knowledge.  Just history so far.
Happy to see better and wil be disappointed to see less as I believe this is the watershed year for the company and that means flying payloads.  8 would be a solid performance.  10 would be a head-turner.  12+ surperb.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 12/22/2013 01:40 am
I am amazed at the number of people that are voting for 8 an even more launches.  At this time, the best SpaceX has been able to do is 3 launches in a year, perhaps 4 this year, if they can get one more off before the year is over.  I am going to play it a little safer an have voted for 7 launches, although, I would be very happy to see those who voted 8 or more win.

Go SpaceX
I voted 8 and you can see my reasoning.  But looking at 2013, SpaceX changed to a brand new vehicle design basically and consequently had the long mid year hiatus.  That shouldn't happen in 2014.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: hop on 12/22/2013 01:51 am
With just a tiny payload, it might be possible to do SSTO, specially if the we're running at 85% turns out to be real.
Give it a 50-50 chance my prediction will happen.
You are predicting things that don't even appear on SpaceX own wildly optimistic manifest, and have never been mentioned in their planned path to re-usability. I don't know how you get 50:50 odds for that, but I'll go with one:eleventy bajillion against ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: hop on 12/22/2013 01:57 am
An alternate approach: Compare what they actually flew in 2013 to what was on the manifests at the end of 2012.

As of October 2012 (the last time they updated in 2012, from http://web.archive.org/web/20121004103731/http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php) SpaceX official manifest was as follows:
Quote
NASA Resupply to ISS – Flight 2 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral (flew in 2013)
ORBCOMM - Multiple Flights 2012-2014 Multiple
Cape Canaveral MDA Corp. (Canada) 2013 Falcon 9 Vandenberg
Falcon Heavy Demo Flight 2013 Falcon Heavy Vandenberg
SES (Europe) 2013 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
Thaicom (Thailand) 2013 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS – Flight 3 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS – Flight 4 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NSPO (Taiwan) 2013 Falcon 9 Vandenberg

So depending how you count the "multiple" Orbcomms and the CRS mission what was supposed to fly in 2012, they flew about 1/3 of their official manifest.

Salo's launch schedule thread had
Quote
March 1 - Dragon CRS2, CUSat 1&2 - Falcon 9 v1.0 - Canaveral SLC-40
April - Cassiope, POPACS (x6) (TBD) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
June - SES-8 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or Ariane 5ECA)
August - Orbcomm 2G (x8) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 2014)
September 30  - Dragon CRS3, CUNYSAT 1, Hermes 2, LMRSat, TechCube 1, All-Star-THEIA, FIREBIRD 1, FIREBIRD 2, Ho‘oponopono 2 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
2nd half - Thaicom 6 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 2014)
or 50%.

bold = flown

If the same ratios apply for 2014, we'd expect somewhere between 4 and 6 launches. In predicting 7, I assume they will improve on this.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 12/22/2013 02:17 am
7 certainly is a very safe guess.

I'm loving this thread.. I think QuantunG's ham sandwich is safe although SSTO certainly is possible there's no reason for it. Great reasoning for 12+ but in the end I went with 8... in the early polling a very respectable 30%. With 7's share you've got the majority, near enough.  8 just seems doable to me and SpaceX have to put up or shut up this year. So, ya, they CAN pick up the pace, and I think they will.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: macpacheco on 12/22/2013 02:20 am
With just a tiny payload, it might be possible to do SSTO, specially if the we're running at 85% turns out to be real.
Give it a 50-50 chance my prediction will happen.
You are predicting things that don't even appear on SpaceX own wildly optimistic manifest, and have never been mentioned in their planned path to re-usability. I don't know how you get 50:50 odds for that, but I'll go with one:eleventy bajillion against ;)

It's wiser to look at the reason they couldn't launch more, and that was F9R development, initial production.
That's done.
It's a production line, ramping up.
I believe they will increase the team at CCAFS by 50% to 100%. Is see five critical risks/bottlenecks now (in order of weight):
 1 - Manpower and real state to process two rockets/payloads at CCAFS without one delaying the other (or minimally so)
 2 - CCAFS pad refurbishing rate
 3 - F9R production rate
 4 - Payloads being ready in enough rate
 5 - Launch failure early in 2014
If everything goes perfect with Thaicom-6 and CRS, 12+ chances will be 50% of the total probabilities.

I'm not trying to go off topic when I mention SSTO (just trying to substantiate my prediction). It would be a hugely wasteful launch, just to show it can be done and put a couple of really cheap payloads into orbit. Maybe just one flight, and only if they can do it on a recovered F9R per the plans. But if it's just fuel and minor refurbishing, it will be worth it. SSTO can't be reused, so let me self censure my stupid idea.

The manifest is conservative enough, re-use isn't considered at all.

Still having 12+ launch attempts high probability than any lower (individual number).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: meekGee on 12/22/2013 02:35 am
I voted 12+. I'm assuming this includes any flights that get to orbit, even if there's just one or two cubesats (or even nothing) on board.
I believe at some point they will do a re-usability long run test.
With just a tiny payload, it might be possible to do SSTO, specially if the we're running at 85% turns out to be real.
Give it a 50-50 chance my prediction will happen. I might fail miserably.
Why the heck would they want to do SSTO? Sure, they probably could make it'd work (Merlin 1D and the first stage are very lightweight), but the payload would suck and it'd definitely be expendable. Has Elon ever said anything about SSTO to make you think SpaceX would attempt a stunt, would even WANT to do such a stunt?

Reuse the first stage until it breaks. Don't need to waste the 2nd stage, nor figure out 2nd stage reuse until they mastered 1st stage reuse.


If you're using the first stage to do SSTO, then re-using it is similar to (and of course harder than) second-stage reuse, not to booster reuse.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: subzero788 on 12/22/2013 03:44 am
In years past I’ve been fairly pessimistic in my outlook (voted 2 in 2012, 3 in 2013) and (unfortunately) I was right both years. However, SpaceX have definitely impressed with their debut of the F9 v1.1 and for the first time since I started following SpaceX in late 2005, I feel a change is in the air.

As hop’s analysis points out above, launch schedules always move to the right, the question is not “if” but “by how much”. Yes, you could make the argument that in the last few years SpaceX have been heavily in development and with 2 F9 v1.1 successes behind them and production clearly in full swing, 2014 should be different. But even the established launch companies suffer from slips to the right; it is a part of the business.

If you look at Salo’s manifest, there is basically 1 F9 per month in the first half of 2014, a F9H around mid year, 1 F9 in Sept and a whole heap in Dec (by the way, it’s not really clear to me why there’s nothing scheduled in Oct/Nov). I would be willing to bet a lot more than a ham sandwich that small slips during the year will result in the Dec flights shifting into 2015. That leaves 7 F9 flights plus a big question mark over the debut of the F9H. And as others have pointed out, 2 abort tests which will likely consume the Cape pad for some time. It would only take a small delay in each launch or abort test to shift everything forward. CRS flights are prone to being delayed by factors external to SpaceX, but it’s not clear whether SpaceX would be able to swap launch vehicles or move later launches forward.

Prediction for 2014:
I was really stuck between 6 or 7. But in the end, I'm going to be conservative and say 6. Allows for an average of 1 launch every 1.5 months, plus 3 months margin for the two abort tests and general slips.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: savuporo on 12/22/2013 04:00 am
You are predicting things that don't even appear on SpaceX own wildly optimistic manifest, and have never been mentioned in their planned path to re-usability. I don't know how you get 50:50 odds for that, but I'll go with one:eleventy bajillion against ;)
I like your thinking. However, you have to remember there is nothing that cannot be solved in space by optimistic application of superdraco thrusters to the problem.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: jongoff on 12/22/2013 04:26 am
I voted for 7 flights, but I don't think any of those will be the Falcon Heavy--all of them will be single-core F9v1.1s.

I think that most of their delays last year were due to introducing the v1.1 design and getting the two new pads up and running. Without a major redesign/pad revamp like that, I think things will go smoother this year. That said, I don't think they'll hit their full 12, but if they do get 7 flights in, that's still a great step in the right direction.

I guessed 3flts last year, and was right, but I hope this year to come off looking like a cranky conservative, not a starry-eyed optimist. :-)

~Jon
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/22/2013 05:19 am
I'm surprised at the optimism expressed. They only have one launch pad for 2014 since Falcon Heavy will be tying up Vandenberg. Remember guys, F9R will be a lot like an orbital flight in its own right and so will the in-flight abort. In order to get 7 or more, they'll either have to rearrange the West Coast flights putting off Falcon Heavy or they'll have to fly four or more Dragons (plus the abort Dragon(s)!).

I'm very surprised six launches isn't more popular.

2015 may have up to two or three more launch pads (Vandenberg will be more in play), so a good ten or more flights is feasible, but this year?? When they're so busy with F9R and demonstrating reuse and Falcon Heavy hasn't even been seen and hardcore crew development?

If they could launch 8-9 flights off of a single launch pad so early in the game, I have a hard time seeing why they want so many launch pads!! I think the pad flow has more bottleneck than people let on. Anyone have a conservative estimate?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 12/22/2013 05:40 am
They only have one launch pad for 2014 since Falcon Heavy will be tying up Vandenberg.

FH won't hold up VAFB all year. The pieces will spend a significant time at McGregor to be tested individually and together - once they finally arrive at VAFB I would expect a launch within 3 months. A regular F9 launch could squeeze in before that, if the schedule is shuffled, and one could even be launched after FH - if FH launches in November or earlier.

so yes, pad flow is an issue, but not as much as you are making it to be.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Excession on 12/22/2013 06:00 am
I voted for ten. That's not much higher a launch rate than they seem to be managing with the first few 1.1 launches, and they aren't introducing a major revision to the Falcon 9 as they did this year.

I am nothing if not optimistic.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/22/2013 06:15 am
They only have one launch pad for 2014 since Falcon Heavy will be tying up Vandenberg.

FH won't hold up VAFB all year. The pieces will spend a significant time at McGregor to be tested individually and together - once they finally arrive at VAFB I would expect a launch within 3 months. A regular F9 launch could squeeze in before that, if the schedule is shuffled, and one could even be launched after FH - if FH launches in November or earlier.

so yes, pad flow is an issue, but not as much as you are making it to be.
We haven't seen any Falcon Heavy metal at all, yet. What makes you think they'll be able to launch it by the end of the year? They have never really launched anything quite like Falcon Heavy before. It's enormous.

And if they do reshuffle the schedule, there's only a single F9 that is on the manifest for arriving at Vandenberg by the end of 2014. At best there'll be just a single flight from that pad this year. Everything else will be from the Cape. So far, what's the closest together that two SpaceX vehicles have launched at the Cape? So far, it is nearly 4 months!

They may be able to pull off this next launch just a month after SES8, but it hasn't been done, yet. And I doubt they can keep that kind of launch rate going without burning out the crew. And don't forget the two abort tests at the pad!!

Two months on average between flights (including the abort tests as flights) plus one launch at Vandenberg would put the orbital launch count at just 5. One and a half months (a very fast pace if you're going the whole year!) would put it at 8. And that's assuming they can reshuffle the schedule to fit in a F9 launch before the Falcon heavy launch. We don't even know if the satellite is ready, do we?

I'm a SpaceX cheerleader, but I'm trying to get an accurate read, here!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 12/22/2013 06:45 am
So far, what's the closest together that two SpaceX vehicles have launched at the Cape? So far, it is nearly 4 months!

They may be able to pull off this next launch just a month after SES8, but it hasn't been done, yet. And I doubt they can keep that kind of launch rate going without burning out the crew. And don't forget the two abort tests at the pad!!

Make sure to let SpaceX know what launch rate they can sustain then.  ::) Let's just ignore what they are about to do with Thaicom.

I'm a SpaceX cheerleader, but I'm trying to get an accurate read, here!

From the way you are arguing, the accurate read here MUST be... Your opinion?

Look, I voted 7 - not far off you. I just think your are using some faulty assumptions.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rockinghorse on 12/22/2013 06:53 am
I expect that Elon Musk and SpaceX will be limited by production capacity, not pad/vehicle launch operations/turnaround time.
And Elon Musk's 'other business' Tesla mass produces over 500 aluminum vehicles/month... [correction: 600 aluminium vehicles per week] So Elon knows production...
At least 10 flights in 2014
If this were a production question, I might agree.  But that doesn't include vehicle and spacecraft integration, getting a range spot, weather, problems with the vehicle or space craft, engine and stage testing, and the rest of the process, which includes stuff relating to ISS when it comes to Dragon flights.  Just running F9s off the assembly line isn't the limiting factor in my opinion.

I disagree with this. The whole point of the existence of SpaceX is to make it such, that running Falcon Niners from assembly line is the limiting factor. We see if this is the reality already in 2014 but from 2015 onwards, the production of cores should be the limiting factor. Especially this is the case when SpaceX's own commercial launch pad is up and running.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rockinghorse on 12/22/2013 09:06 am
There is also another point. If SpaceX cannot have 12+ launches into orbit, there is absolutely zero probability that SpaceX can launch people to Mars in 2020's. If this is the case, we may well forget all speculation considering MCT vehicles or Falcon X series.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: guckyfan on 12/22/2013 09:47 am
There is also another point. If SpaceX cannot have 12+ launches into orbit, there is absolutely zero probability that SpaceX can launch people to Mars in 2020's. If this is the case, we may well forget all speculation considering MCT vehicles or Falcon X series.

This is the thread for 2014. Capabilities will be different in the coming years.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rockinghorse on 12/22/2013 10:03 am
There is also another point. If SpaceX cannot have 12+ launches into orbit, there is absolutely zero probability that SpaceX can launch people to Mars in 2020's. If this is the case, we may well forget all speculation considering MCT vehicles or Falcon X series.
This is the thread for 2014. Capabilities will be different in the coming years.

That is untrue and I strongly disagree. SpaceX must establish their position already in 2014 so that they have strong enough revenue stream for building the future.

addition: As SpaceX has around 4000 employees, it needs revenue stream at least 400 million for 2014. This means that SpaceX must launch quite a few commercial launches in order to stay in business and move forward. This also supports the idea for 12+ launches for the year 2014.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Pete on 12/22/2013 12:29 pm
The limitations to launch rate are:
1) figuring out how to make it fly in the first place
2) ability to build the hardware fast enough.
3) Having enough places to launch from
4) avoiding unneeded delays due to small problems, incremental development.

Of these, for Falcon9v1.1, Spacex has:
1) done and done.
2) done, possibly with a few small snags. They can build cores and engines just fine, the checkout & testing is not smooth yet.
3) biggest bottleneck. Realistically, they have one (1) launch pad. Brand new, used only once and that with a great many teething issues. Based on a launch facility that is mostly out of their control, for scheduling purposes.
Until Vanderburg is freed up, I cannot see more than 10, likely 8 launch attempts from florida.
4) They are learning. They are good at sorting stuff out. But the small trips and stumbles are causing delays at each and every turn. Spacex may build a fine rocket, but they do NOT yet have the art of launching down solid.

In terms of Falcon 9 Heavy, they are still in the "it looks good on paper" stage.

Until SpaceX sources more launch facilities, or streamlines their launch procedure, predicting a launch rate of more than 8 per site, per year, is unrealistic. This coming year, with effectively one launch site, that ceilings them at 8. (+1 maybe for FH from vandenburg, -1 for launch abort test not counting in this poll)

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/22/2013 02:20 pm
There is also another point. If SpaceX cannot have 12+ launches into orbit, there is absolutely zero probability that SpaceX can launch people to Mars in 2020's. If this is the case, we may well forget all speculation considering MCT vehicles or Falcon X series.
This is the thread for 2014. Capabilities will be different in the coming years.

That is untrue and I strongly disagree. SpaceX must establish their position already in 2014 so that they have strong enough revenue stream for building the future.

addition: As SpaceX has around 4000 employees, it needs revenue stream at least 400 million for 2014. This means that SpaceX must launch quite a few commercial launches in order to stay in business and move forward. This also supports the idea for 12+ launches for the year 2014.
Probably three of their launches are Dragon launches this year. SpaceX gets over $100 million ($125m?) per Dragon launch, so everything beyond about 5 launches is well above $400m in revenue. Plus, don't forget the revenue from commercial crew and the abort tests. They certainly don't depend on just regular Falcon 9 launches.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 12/22/2013 03:31 pm
Eight out of SLC-40 and 2 SLC-4(VAFB). The 8 value is because even though SpaceX looks to be able to do a 30 day interval not all launches will be so easy to schedule. CRS-3 may move like Orbital's did due to ISS problems (a 3 week slip) causing slips to all later flights. These payload schedule problems  plus weather plus range schedule challanges will cause getting more than 8 out of 1 pad with minimal processing interval of 30 days a low possibility.

That is why I voted 10 for 2014.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rcoppola on 12/22/2013 03:58 pm
8 Launches.

I think a doubling of their launches from 2013 will still be quite impressive. Although they could wind up launching a handful more, they do have a considerable number of developments throughout 2014 with Crewed Dragon, F9R FH, decisions on TX site and finally their newest gem, Pad 39A. I think these additional efforts will keep them around the 8 launch milestone.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: yg1968 on 12/22/2013 04:02 pm
I voted 12. It's a bit optimistic. But I was impressed with the last two launches.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: yg1968 on 12/22/2013 04:09 pm
There is also another point. If SpaceX cannot have 12+ launches into orbit, there is absolutely zero probability that SpaceX can launch people to Mars in 2020's. If this is the case, we may well forget all speculation considering MCT vehicles or Falcon X series.
This is the thread for 2014. Capabilities will be different in the coming years.

That is untrue and I strongly disagree. SpaceX must establish their position already in 2014 so that they have strong enough revenue stream for building the future.

addition: As SpaceX has around 4000 employees, it needs revenue stream at least 400 million for 2014. This means that SpaceX must launch quite a few commercial launches in order to stay in business and move forward. This also supports the idea for 12+ launches for the year 2014.
Probably three of their launches are Dragon launches this year. SpaceX gets over $100 million ($125m?) per Dragon launch, so everything beyond about 5 launches is well above $400m in revenue. Plus, don't forget the revenue from commercial crew and the abort tests. They certainly don't depend on just regular Falcon 9 launches.

$133M for each CRS flight. $1.6B for 12 launches. SpaceX gets paid an important part of the money prior to the launch.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Sohl on 12/22/2013 04:28 pm
Voted 7.  Pretty likely from 5 to 9 (+/- 2).  Five if they have a few significant but workable issues as the year proceeds.  9 if things go really well and operations are smooth. My guess is 7 because I predict they will only have small issues with Falcon 9 v. 1.1 and Dragon at this point, but I do think there will be constraints on range availability and some sequencing challenges that will keep them from getting many more than 7 flying in 2014.  Hope I'm wrong on the low side!  ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: SpacexULA on 12/22/2013 05:18 pm
Bullish as usual will say 10.  2 Vandenburg, 8 cape.

Even if SpaceX gets 8, that puts the US back at the #2 spot for MLV/HLV launches behind only the Russians.  If Russia has a launch issue, and SpaceX pulls off the 12 the US might be #1 again in launch launch rate.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: jg on 12/22/2013 05:41 pm
Hmmm....  I'm going to look at the history of the last 3-4 months and ignore the previous history.  In computing, Fred Brooks always recommended to "plan to throw one away"; it looks like Falcon 1.0 was that version.

With, in effect, two new pads (since modifications were required to support the V.1.1), SLC40 can't be considered an old pad (as demonstrated by the umbilical coming loose in one of the launch attempts). SpaceX is dangerously close to launching at a once/month rate, despite a relatively new vehicle and having to deal with the restart issue uncovered in the first launch.

Their timing also ran into two major holidays and the range shutdown.

So now they have 2 pads, both of which have launched v1.1, and presumably they are now tinkering with to smooth the teething pains they've had at both.

Their manifest has 15 or so launches scheduled for 2014.

So I don't think I'm being crazy to say 12 +.

Time will tell.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: macpacheco on 12/22/2013 05:49 pm
3) biggest bottleneck. Realistically, they have one (1) launch pad. Brand new, used only once and that with a great many teething issues. Based on a launch facility that is mostly out of their control, for scheduling purposes.
Until Vanderburg is freed up, I cannot see more than 10, likely 8 launch attempts from florida.
4) They are learning. They are good at sorting stuff out. But the small trips and stumbles are causing delays at each and every turn. Spacex may build a fine rocket, but they do NOT yet have the art of launching down solid.

3)
Let me knit pick that the bottleneck is more like the launch processing facility than the pad itself. It's been sad they have an alternate launch processing area, so they apparently have real state for two concurrent launch processing in the cape, but probably not enough people (yet) to do both even 50% concurrently.
The pad as a bottleneck is only due to refurbishing needed between launches (all that heat scorches some areas of the pad), but like anything else, they should get better at doing it with each launch.
If there were no pad refurbishing, it would be possible to do 3 launches per month (if there were no other bottlenecks), assuming they get just a little better at this refurbishing.

4) Agreed, but I believe with Thaicom-6 and the next CRS mission 90% of what they need to learn to streamline will be learned, they question is if they will have the time to implement everything to make the process go faster

Just consider how little people SpaceX needs to do launch processing, hence how little extra people they would need to pump that side of the equation much faster.

Finally while most payloads have long leads, some payloads not so much, and some might be ready to go already.
I would expect that at least 3 payloads could be launched a few months sooner than scheduled. Orbcomm payloads strike me as in this category (much smaller LEO satellites) for instance. Obvious wild expeculation.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Rabidpanda on 12/22/2013 06:13 pm
There is also another point. If SpaceX cannot have 12+ launches into orbit, there is absolutely zero probability that SpaceX can launch people to Mars in 2020's. If this is the case, we may well forget all speculation considering MCT vehicles or Falcon X series.
This is the thread for 2014. Capabilities will be different in the coming years.

That is untrue and I strongly disagree. SpaceX must establish their position already in 2014 so that they have strong enough revenue stream for building the future.

addition: As SpaceX has around 4000 employees, it needs revenue stream at least 400 million for 2014. This means that SpaceX must launch quite a few commercial launches in order to stay in business and move forward. This also supports the idea for 12+ launches for the year 2014.

Obviously it would be financially beneficial for SpaceX if they could do 12+ launches in 2014, but that is irrelevant to this thread. The poll is not about an ideal scenario where everything works perfectly, it's about real life where schedules always shift to the right and unseen problems arise, limiting the amount of launches that they can perform.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Xspace_engineerX on 12/22/2013 06:39 pm
I expect that Elon Musk and SpaceX will be limited by production capacity, not pad/vehicle launch operations/turnaround time.
And Elon Musk's 'other business' Tesla mass produces over 500 aluminum vehicles/month... [correction: 600 aluminium vehicles per week] So Elon knows production...
At least 10 flights in 2014
If this were a production question, I might agree.  But that doesn't include vehicle and spacecraft integration, getting a range spot, weather, problems with the vehicle or space craft, engine and stage testing, and the rest of the process, which includes stuff relating to ISS when it comes to Dragon flights.  Just running F9s off the assembly line isn't the limiting factor in my opinion.

I disagree with this. The whole point of the existence of SpaceX is to make it such, that running Falcon Niners from assembly line is the limiting factor. We see if this is the reality already in 2014 but from 2015 onwards, the production of cores should be the limiting factor. Especially this is the case when SpaceX's own commercial launch pad is up and running.

But it currently is. SpaceX says that they can produce a core a month and that through 2014 they will be producing more ; their lowest scheduled turnaround time is about a month. The bottleneck is at the pad.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: jg on 12/22/2013 06:49 pm
I expect that Elon Musk and SpaceX will be limited by production capacity, not pad/vehicle launch operations/turnaround time.
And Elon Musk's 'other business' Tesla mass produces over 500 aluminum vehicles/month... [correction: 600 aluminium vehicles per week] So Elon knows production...
At least 10 flights in 2014
If this were a production question, I might agree.  But that doesn't include vehicle and spacecraft integration, getting a range spot, weather, problems with the vehicle or space craft, engine and stage testing, and the rest of the process, which includes stuff relating to ISS when it comes to Dragon flights.  Just running F9s off the assembly line isn't the limiting factor in my opinion.

I disagree with this. The whole point of the existence of SpaceX is to make it such, that running Falcon Niners from assembly line is the limiting factor. We see if this is the reality already in 2014 but from 2015 onwards, the production of cores should be the limiting factor. Especially this is the case when SpaceX's own commercial launch pad is up and running.

But it currently is. SpaceX says that they can produce a core a month and that through 2014 they will be producing more ; their lowest scheduled turnaround time is about a month. The bottleneck is at the pad.

Of which they currently have 2 pads.  So that makes the 12 + option not insanity...  I'm much more skeptical that they will get everything launched this year that is on their manifest, which stand at 15 launches.  Possible, but I think some more gremlins will slow down that fast a ramp up. And if they launch next week, that helps from the point of view of a launch count in 2014.

The big thing that can happen to any launch provider is, of course a major RUD event or other failure.  Sometimes those are easy to diagnose and return to flight is quick, and sometimes not.

So while I guessed 12 +, that's on a probabilistic bet that they don't have one of those events. And given only 2 flights of v1.1 under their belt, it is far, far from certain.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rockinghorse on 12/22/2013 06:57 pm
Obviously it would be financially beneficial for SpaceX if they could do 12+ launches in 2014, but that is irrelevant to this thread. The poll is not about an ideal scenario where everything works perfectly, it's about real life where schedules always shift to the right and unseen problems arise, limiting the amount of launches that they can perform.

Schedules can shift also to other direction. As I predicted, several launches will happen in 2014 that were scheduled for 2015 or are not yet scheduled for SpaceX.

Actually our only reliable method to estimate how many launches there will be in 2014, is to try to make guesswork what are SpaceX's ambitions for the growth. It was pointed out, that SpaceX is surviving financially with Nasa flights alone. This means that if SpaceX does not have ambitions for maximum growth rate, then it is probable that actual launch rate is eight or below. It may well be that SpaceX is still focusing on research and development rather than providing routine commercial launches.

I think that SpaceX is in the point where it can decide their own launch rate. They were not previously in that point, because Falcon 9R was under development. But now it finally had first commercial launch with SES-8 and I am pretty confident that there are more to follow. Therefore If SpaceX wants to have 18 launches for 2014, then there will be 18 launches, but I may have doubts if this is really what SpaceX wants, because Nasa is providing abundant financing for SpaceX.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/22/2013 07:43 pm
Falcon Heavy will need 3 cores. The in-flight abort will need a core. F9R is a core. I think they'll launch 6 times (Thaicom, Spx 3,4,5, Orbcomm and then either Asiasat or Conae) and so have 11 cores at a launch pad by the end of the year, nearly meeting their production rate of 12 cores/year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: SpacexULA on 12/22/2013 07:52 pm
1. Actually our only reliable method to estimate how many launches there will be in 2014, is to try to make guesswork what are SpaceX's ambitions for the growth. It was pointed out, that SpaceX is surviving financially with Nasa flights alone.

2. Therefore If SpaceX wants to have 18 launches for 2014, then there will be 18 launches, but I may have doubts if this is really what SpaceX wants, because Nasa is providing abundant financing for SpaceX.

1. A significant portion of the payment for any commercial launch happens well before the date of the actual launch.  Unless you have inside information you can't authoritatively state that SpaceX is "surviving financially with NASA flights".

2.  SpaceX is limited by range availability, payload processing and availability, plus technical issues and thermal cut out on the ISS.  Space Launch is like a limo service.  If the ride is available early, it just waits for the passenger.  The passenger is the star.

SpaceX's Manifest is launch vehicle on site, SpaceX has been having payload on site up to 2-3 months before launch, so it's possible for them to meet their manifest and only launch 10 vehicle to orbit.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 12/22/2013 08:20 pm
I expect that Elon Musk and SpaceX will be limited by production capacity, not pad/vehicle launch operations/turnaround time.
And Elon Musk's 'other business' Tesla mass produces over 500 aluminum vehicles/month... [correction: 600 aluminium vehicles per week] So Elon knows production...
At least 10 flights in 2014
If this were a production question, I might agree.  But that doesn't include vehicle and spacecraft integration, getting a range spot, weather, problems with the vehicle or space craft, engine and stage testing, and the rest of the process, which includes stuff relating to ISS when it comes to Dragon flights.  Just running F9s off the assembly line isn't the limiting factor in my opinion.

I disagree with this. The whole point of the existence of SpaceX is to make it such, that running Falcon Niners from assembly line is the limiting factor. We see if this is the reality already in 2014 but from 2015 onwards, the production of cores should be the limiting factor. Especially this is the case when SpaceX's own commercial launch pad is up and running.

But we're talking about 2014 here.  And they have certainly not proven they can do the entire process and repeat it every four weeks.  They may get there someday, but for now, all that stuff is going to prevent it at least for the first half of 2014 if not longer.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Rabidpanda on 12/22/2013 08:23 pm
Therefore If SpaceX wants to have 18 launches for 2014, then there will be 18 launches.

It doesn't work like that.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: savuporo on 12/22/2013 08:30 pm
It doesn't work like that.
If they were launching blocks of concrete to orbit, it almost would ( given range availability ). However they probably dont want to, if they intend to stay in business, and a lot of people here dont understand that.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: hop on 12/22/2013 08:36 pm
Schedules can shift also to other direction. As I predicted, several launches will happen in 2014 that were scheduled for 2015 or are not yet scheduled for SpaceX.
Schedules can shift that way, but they rarely do,  and when they do, it tends to be by much smaller amounts. SpaceX has shown now signs of bucking this trend to date...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Garrett on 12/22/2013 09:05 pm
Voted 8.

Last year voted 4, thinking 5 or 6 was optimistic and 2 or 3 was pessimistic. They launched 3.
For 2013, I think 4 is pessimistic and 9 or 10 is optimistic, so I'm voting somewhat optimistically.

Pretty confident FH will launch in 2013. Any delays at the Cape will create quite a backlog, and everything we've heard suggests that they are in a position to build a core per month, so it would make logistics sense to plan some of that production for the under-used Vandenberg launch pad. It's just a pity that a FH launch won't count as three launches  :P

Also a pity that the in-flight abort test doen't count, but I suppose I can see why.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: hrissan on 12/22/2013 09:14 pm
I voted unpopular 9 in this poll, I believe the launch rate will ncrease throughout the year.

P.S. I got it right with voting 3 in the previous 2013 poll, but they almost managed 4, so this time I have added positive bias to my estimation of 7.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Kaputnik on 12/22/2013 09:17 pm
What is the history with payloads causing slippages? Everybody is talking as if SpaceX has a bunch of payloads sitting in a warehouse ready to fly. Somehow I don't think that's the case. Are the manifested payloads even built yet? Well at least the Dragon ones cannot be ready to fly yet, for sure.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: llanitedave on 12/22/2013 09:33 pm

Pretty confident FH will launch in 2013.

I suspect your confidence is misplaced.   :D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: hop on 12/22/2013 10:28 pm
What is the history with payloads causing slippages? Everybody is talking as if SpaceX has a bunch of payloads sitting in a warehouse ready to fly.
CASSIOPE definitely waited for the LV, not the other way around. My impression is that SES-8 and Thaicom 6 did too, although not for nearly as long.

From http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/ses-8.htm the initial contract for SES-8 was Q1 2013, while Thaicom 6 was for "mid 2013" http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/thaicom-6.htm
Quote
Somehow I don't think that's the case. Are the manifested payloads even built yet? Well at least the Dragon ones cannot be ready to fly yet, for sure.
Comsats frequently get delivered in a timely manner to other launch providers, although of course payload related delays do happen.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: subzero788 on 12/22/2013 11:37 pm
1.  they currently have 2 pads.  So that makes the 12 + option not insanity... 


2. I'm much more skeptical that they will get everything launched this year that is on their manifest, which stand at 15 launches.


1. Yes they have two pads,  but only one of the manifested launches (F9H) will fly from Vandenberg. So the Cape will be the bottleneck, especially when you add the 2 abort tests.


2. The year given on the official SpaceX manifest is "vehicle arrival at launch site" NOT the launch year. Refer to Salo's list (linked in first post) for a more realistic schedule.



Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: kevin-rf on 12/23/2013 01:05 am
Gut says one mission every two months, by the end of the year they might be able to turn around a mission a month.

The mature Atlas system only flew 8 times in 2013, so I have a hard time buying SpaceX in 2014 will ramp up beyond ULA.

ESA only flew 4 Ariane 5 missions in 2013, though they have plans for 14 in 2014.

Since Thiacom 6 is already on the pad.

Thaicom 6 + 6 mission two months apart + final mission with a month turn arround.

So voted 8, though my gut says more likely 6.

No Falcon Heavy in 2014, it will slip to 2015
They will start a second Texas pad in 2014
Ramp up to one Cape mission a month in 2015
Slowly ramp up Texas operations in 2015
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: chalz on 12/23/2013 03:17 am
Voted 6.
However this requires the optimistic outcome of the first Orbcomm flight in February. This seems slightly more likely with CRS 3 probably being in March.
At least one Asiasat flight is lost because it can't make March31 and the other can only make it I think if the orbcomm flies in Feb.
Pad abort tests take up the second half of the year interleaved with NASA launch. More than 2 CRS flights in the year seems optimistic but I would love to be proved wrong.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: ChefPat on 12/23/2013 03:18 am
I don't believe they can launch a mission a month from Cape Canaveral. I believe issues involving orbits, payloads & the range will limit them to 6 launches from Cape Canaveral & 0 from Vandenberg in 2014. I don't believe they will truly hit their stride until they have a purely commercial launch site, & that won't happen before 2016.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AJW on 12/23/2013 07:40 am
Nine flights.  If a second PF is started at SLC-40 before the end of February, I'll up my prediction to 11.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: DJPledger on 12/23/2013 07:43 am
I voted 6 because even though I am a devoted SpaceX fan there could well be a few problems throughout the year that may cause some delays. Only takes one anomaly on one launch to cause all subsequent launches to be delayed.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Rocket Science on 12/23/2013 12:56 pm
I give them 5... Now go prove me wrong SpaceX...  ;)

EDIT: Forgot to make the "big" X... :D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Chris Bergin on 12/23/2013 02:22 pm
I've gone with 7.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: malu5531 on 12/23/2013 02:37 pm
In the last four months, SpaceX almost did three, I think 9 is a given for 2014 but this figure is low since they had some initial teething problems during the first launches, so I am sure they will do even better. I vote 12+.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: go4mars on 12/23/2013 02:54 pm
6.  Like Jon, I hope to be proved a grouchy old skeptic. 


My main measure of success for 2014 isn't rate.  It's demonstrated stage reuse.
A cross feeding FH would be nice to have too.
Announcement of a Grey Dragon mission for astrobotic, Tesla or others. (Or announcement of manned lunar flyby)
Demonstrated raptor progress & crew systems are also on my wishlist.
GH2 data-gathering too. 
Scaled-up 3D printing of bigger elements.
Announcement of something more official with Bigelow
A hyperloop prototype at MacGregor
20 new flights added to the manifest
More news about Texas launch site
I don't expect to see it, but a diagram or animation of "the spaceship raptor is attached to".
Something else cool/brilliant and unexpected.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Xspace_engineerX on 12/23/2013 03:15 pm
In the last four months, SpaceX almost did three, I think 9 is a given for 2014 but this figure is low since they had some initial teething problems during the first launches, so I am sure they will do even better. I vote 12+.

That's actually a really good point. I'm not sure if any of the people who are saying five to seven are taking into account the half-year gap between 1.0 and 1.1.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: woods170 on 12/23/2013 06:10 pm
In the last four months, SpaceX almost did three, I think 9 is a given for 2014 but this figure is low since they had some initial teething problems during the first launches, so I am sure they will do even better. I vote 12+.

That's actually a really good point. I'm not sure if any of the people who are saying five to seven are taking into account the half-year gap between 1.0 and 1.1.
In fact I had taken that in account. I just think that SpaceX will run into a one or two major snags this year. Ramping up production and launch rate without stumbling over something is rather rare in the launch business. I don't expect anything catastrophic but a few major incidents requiring mitigation and a slowing-down of things.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rockinghorse on 12/23/2013 09:11 pm
In the last four months, SpaceX almost did three, I think 9 is a given for 2014 but this figure is low since they had some initial teething problems during the first launches, so I am sure they will do even better. I vote 12+.

That's actually a really good point. I'm not sure if any of the people who are saying five to seven are taking into account the half-year gap between 1.0 and 1.1.
In fact I had taken that in account. I just think that SpaceX will run into a one or two major snags this year. Ramping up production and launch rate without stumbling over something is rather rare in the launch business. I don't expect anything catastrophic but a few major incidents requiring mitigation and a slowing-down of things.

I think that 2014 will be very smooth with at most two week delays with commercial and ISS flights. And if there are delays they are not SpaceX related. E.g. Dragon flights are probably delayed.

However I am starting to question my initial 12+ prediction and I think that 8 orbital flights is closer to what SpaceX wants for the 2014 launches. They have so much to do also for research and developments, such as Hyperloop, Falcon Heavy, Raptor, Dragon 2, new launch pad and especially Grasshopper 2 and Falcon 9R. Therefore I would think that launching rockets is not top priority of SpaceX yet. I think that they are aiming to start full scale weekly launches in around 2016 when their commercial launch pad is running and launch process is less bureaucratic (e.g. flight control is today too crowded due to old traditions).

If SpaceX however is highly motivated to launch rockets, then I do not see big obstacles for the realization of the Launch Manifest + few extra launches. However, I think that R&D is right now more important for SpaceX.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 12/23/2013 09:15 pm
What does hyperloop have to do with Spacex?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: oiorionsbelt on 12/23/2013 09:20 pm
Less than Tesla
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: uko on 12/23/2013 09:37 pm
I voted 7 ..so a little bit more than 1 every other month should be realistic, if they have a good year :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: macpacheco on 12/23/2013 10:27 pm
What does hyperloop have to do with Spacex?

If Elon decides to do the hyperloop thing, it has a lot of synergy with SpaceX resources (advanced metalurgy, advanced computer simulation, testing resources).
But for those interested only in Space, and this thread that is about Number of SpaceX orbital flights, it is off topic.
Plus Elon said he's way too busy to do Hyperloop. That's one of the reasons he open sourced the specs.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 12/23/2013 10:28 pm

If Elon decides to do the hyperloop thing, it has a lot of synergy with SpaceX resources (advanced metalurgy, advanced computer simulation, testing resources).


No, it doesn't.  Just like Tesla, the only thing in common with Spacex is Elon.  Spacex is not the hyperloop organization.  There is no synergy, it would take a whole new group of people to do the hyperloop.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Space Junkie on 12/23/2013 10:56 pm
I went with 6. I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised this year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: go4mars on 12/24/2013 12:54 am
What does hyperloop have to do with Spacex?
Some SpaceX engineers, and the statement from Elon about potentially testing a prototype at SpaceX's Texas facility.  IIRC.   And the email address [email protected] for suggestions. 
Long term, it could be useful on Mars too.  But this is getting off topic so let's drop it or move it to the hyperloop thread if needed.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 12/24/2013 01:05 am
What does hyperloop have to do with Spacex?

Aerodynamics... not that that is going to change my 7 launches in 2014... and full first stage recovery prediction and yes FH or F9H first flight
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 12/24/2013 01:10 am
What does hyperloop have to do with Spacex?

The proposal is hosted on their site (and Tesla's) and that is IT. Really no other connection and Elon would be foolish to let SpaceX take their eyes off the ball.

GACK, I agreed with Jim. :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Nate_Trost on 12/24/2013 01:36 am
Voted six. I'm skeptical FH will fly in 2014. Given the current processing/storage limitations in Florida, even if they have a year of flawless LV performance, I'll be impressed if they manage to squeeze more than six out.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Roy_H on 12/24/2013 01:36 am
SpaceX has 12 flights listed, and I believe they will try very hard to meet that goal.

Loral is TBD so seems more likely 2015.
I found Turkmensat listed for China launch.
Conae seems to have disappeared from all launch manifests except SpaceX's.

I'm an optimist, so I voted 10. (and 5 last year).

I find it amusing that most people who say they voted 12+ claim that the SpaceX manifest has 15 listed, and apparently don't know or care about the difference between launches and hardware delivery at site. The other thing some have said is that with two launch sites Canaveral and Vandenburg they should have no problem. How can people on this site not be aware of the legal, and safety problems of trying to launch eastward from Vandenburg?  :D
 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: vapour_nudge on 12/24/2013 07:41 am
My hunch is 7. Just over twice that of 2013 with one nearly gauranteed bonus launch on the 3rd of January.

All just guesswork of course, but things that might slow them down are range clashes with the 10 or so launches from the Cape by ULA (Atlas V & Delta IV).  Plus the ISS manifest moves around a bit so no gaurantees there

I suspect that previous posts about the FH holding up things at Vandenberg might be the go.

I think they are down to launch the Deep Space Climate Observatory. That one is quite experienced at waiting on the ground ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: baldusi on 12/24/2013 08:27 pm
I went with 8, but I'm expecting 7. I simply like to bias my votes :p
My reasoning was that both the Pad Abort and the MaxQ Abort will count at least as a full campaign. I don't expect a single launch from VAFB. Heavy will take longer and SAOCOM is already stated for 2015/16 (last week CONAE top official press conference). So, doing the equivalent of 9 launches would be an amazing pace. Payloads, anomalies, etc. will happen. 8 orbital launches is too much, realistically. But I've systematically been over predicting. And I expect to keep that record (I'm sort of an optimist pessimist).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 12/24/2013 09:15 pm
I went with 8, but I'm expecting 7. I simply like to bias my votes :p
My reasoning was that both the Pad Abort and the MaxQ Abort will count at least as a full campaign.

No, the pad abort involves no actual F9 hardware. It will launch from a special trunk base/mount, as far as I understand.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/25/2013 05:23 am
I went with 8, but I'm expecting 7. I simply like to bias my votes :p
My reasoning was that both the Pad Abort and the MaxQ Abort will count at least as a full campaign.

No, the pad abort involves no actual F9 hardware. It will launch from a special trunk base/mount, as far as I understand.
No real F9 hardware for the pad abort, but a totally new rocket stage: the Dragon launch abort system. More thrust than a Falcon 1, and nearly as many engines as a Falcon 9 with a hypergolic fuel.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: RocketmanUS on 12/25/2013 06:10 am
Voted 8 for 2014.

Voted two for 2013, was off by one. Don't mind being wrong on that prediction.

Expect FH sometime in 2015 as I think we will see more delays.

CRS launch schedules could delay other launches.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: CuddlyRocket on 12/25/2013 10:17 am
I voted 8 for 2014. Mainly because my knowledge of rocket operations isn't very great, so I picked the number that had as many people guessing below as above! So, if I'm wrong - as is likely - at least there'll be many people more wrong than me!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: davey142 on 12/25/2013 05:10 pm
Voted 7. Assuming FH, and late year launches slip to 2015. Factor in abort test, and that leaves 1.5 month average turnaround time. Assuming a few minor issues or bumps along the way, 1.5 month turnaround sounds achievable.

Pad predictions: 6 (plus abort test) from Cape, 1 from VAFB
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: boinc on 12/25/2013 05:24 pm
some GH flights.

5 orbital flights:

thaicom+crs-3
then 2 flights around the summer
1 in the winter

FH in 2015
+pad + inflight abort in winter

seems realistic and optimistic.  ::)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: JBF on 12/25/2013 05:39 pm
Only 5 orbital flights? CRS-3,4,5 &6 are scheduled this year assuming one gets pushed back that leaves 3. Thaicom-6, Orbcomm OG2 #1, AsiaSat 8, AsiaSat 6, Orbcomm OG2 #2, and TurkmenSat.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 12/25/2013 09:15 pm
Bonic is assuming that the flight rate decreases over time. I don't know. We'll see in 2015. My vote will come after Thaicom. A bit of a cop-out, but I really want to see if they are successful. This rocket still seems to be under development. Thaicom seems more like a third test flight than a second operational flight. I'll be happy when they stop slipping and scrubbing.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: aero on 12/26/2013 12:58 am
I'm waiting for Thiacom as well. After all, success on Jan. 3, or thereabouts will result in F 9 v1.1 being certified for whatever that means. But certified sounds good so I will wait for that. Now if the SpaceX ground and launch operations were also certified then the actual number of launches might be quite high in 2014.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 12/26/2013 01:00 am
Bonic is assuming that the flight rate decreases over time. I don't know. We'll see in 2015. My vote will come after Thaicom. A bit of a cop-out, but I really want to see if they are successful. This rocket still seems to be under development. Thaicom seems more like a third test flight than a second operational flight. I'll be happy when they stop slipping and scrubbing.

bold mine - I agree, with the happy part; but to add to it, I hope that if they can put a string of F9 v1.1 launches together that don't have slips and scrubs, I think we can say that SpaceX will have a maturing LV and launch crew, and be on the road to taking care of business. before then they are still in training mode... I know that sounds a bit harsh, but I say it out of belief that they can do it... just going to take time...

Gramps
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 12/26/2013 01:14 am
If one calculates "new slip" as any additional slip that wasn't day for day with the last mission at that pad (so that the Thiacom-6 "new slip" is in the single digit days at most, if I have calculated it correctly) then I think SpaceX is improving... the new slip from  CASSIOPE to SES-8 was more than the new slip from SES-8 to Thiacom-6...

When "new slip" is zero, or even goes negative (successive missions don't slip as much as the current mission does so the cascade is contained) then they'll really have traction.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: QuantumG on 12/26/2013 01:21 am
before then they are still in training mode... I know that sounds a bit harsh, but I say it out of belief that they can do it... just going to take time...

Agreed. I think the deciding factor for the number of launches in 2014 will be whether they get down to business and work the tempo problems, or they go off on some new upgrade adventure. Personally, I think that adventure will happen and it'll be called "Falcon Heavy".. or commercial crew.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 12/26/2013 02:01 am
before then they are still in training mode... I know that sounds a bit harsh, but I say it out of belief that they can do it... just going to take time...

Agreed. I think the deciding factor for the number of launches in 2014 will be whether they get down to business and work the tempo problems, or they go off on some new upgrade adventure. Personally, I think that adventure will happen and it'll be called "Falcon Heavy".. or commercial crew.

I think they upgrade everything on their adventures including the elements they need to improve the flight rate. Elon Musk said before that you need to improve rocketry every single year. So far, it seems like the ambitions for 2014-15 are so great that, if achieved, SpaceX would simultaneously cross almost every single technical barrier the industry has achieved thus far and break some pretty new ground. I don't want to sound wild-eyed or overstate things, but it's nearly true. Multiple re-starts, RTLS, commercial crew, and super-heavy lift. People here always hold back and qualify statements like that with obligatory "if they are able to" or "if they don't fail." I don't feel the need to right now.

I suppose my point is that given the choice between a very efficient and long status quo built on years of experience and an every evolving bleeding edge, I'd choose the latter. I guess I'm just in love with that kind of thing. So whether SpaceX achieves a once a month rate really speaks a lot less to me than if they build the rocket that can potentially achieve once a day. The minute they stop striving for that goal and lose their ideals of pushing the edge of what can be done, I really wont care what their flight rate is.

So I don't really know what their flight rate will be or how many slips scrubs or full explosions will rock their launch pad. I just hope they don't waste a few years trying to get really good at doing the last thing they did.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: macpacheco on 12/26/2013 03:31 am
addition: As SpaceX has around 4000 employees, it needs revenue stream at least 400 million for 2014. This means that SpaceX must launch quite a few commercial launches in order to stay in business and move forward. This also supports the idea for 12+ launches for the year 2014.

Not an issue. Just two CRS launches plus MaxQ dragon test and escape abort tests gets 80% of that. So even large delays would still make payroll.

Finally Elon has stated he's turning away investment offers on SpaceX, cause SpaceX is well funded as it is, plus if he needs cash for SpaceX he can easily sell a little Tesla stock. It's not by chance his fortune has been placed at 8 billion dollars (don't know the value of Tesla stock used to derive that). And everything points to SpaceX having a solidly profitable year in 2014. Besides the mars goal, now that he has more cash than he can think what to do with, his main goal is to keep SpaceX financial control (I speculate even after an IPO).

He's probably very paranoid of Boeing/LM trying to take his company away from him through proxy investments, or even just starting to give him trouble at the board level, for instance pushing SpaceX to rise launch prices.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Wetmelon on 12/26/2013 06:35 am
I went with 9 launches.  That's one per month, skipping one month every trimester.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rockinghorse on 12/26/2013 11:12 am
addition: As SpaceX has around 4000 employees, it needs revenue stream at least 400 million for 2014. This means that SpaceX must launch quite a few commercial launches in order to stay in business and move forward. This also supports the idea for 12+ launches for the year 2014.
Not an issue. Just two CRS launches plus MaxQ dragon test and escape abort tests gets 80% of that. So even large delays would still make payroll.

Yes, I agree. SpaceX does not need that many commercial launches and it probably is concentrating more on R&D than launching rockets. Nasa gives good enough financial support.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 12/26/2013 12:04 pm
I would like to see SpaceX wean itself somewhat off of government support. There is no problem with them taking NASA money for NASA work like CRS and CCCap but I think it would be bad for the company's collective culture in the long-term if it remains dependent on such sources of funding.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 12/26/2013 01:02 pm
I would like to see SpaceX wean itself somewhat off of government support. There is no problem with them taking NASA money for NASA work like CRS and CCCap but I think it would be bad for the company's collective culture in the long-term if it remains dependent on such sources of funding.
IIRC approx 60% of their launch business is non-govt.  Business is business.  Different contracts simply require different approaches.  I don't think govt business really presents any 'problems' for SpaceX.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: billh on 12/26/2013 01:37 pm
I detect a bias against odd numbers. It's kind of funny that we all have carefully reasoned explanations for our votes, but still somehow there are over twice as many votes for even numbers as odd numbers.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: jpfulton314 on 12/26/2013 02:19 pm
I'll say nine. 

The Jan - March launch schedule will tell the story.  That's two launches and a test of the reusability of the first stage and the Dragon capsule with CRS-3.  If Murphy's Law rears its ugly head then the numbers may be less.

Falcon Heavy will get off the ground this year, too.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: macpacheco on 12/26/2013 02:25 pm
I would like to see SpaceX wean itself somewhat off of government support. There is no problem with them taking NASA money for NASA work like CRS and CCCap but I think it would be bad for the company's collective culture in the long-term if it remains dependent on such sources of funding.

I would argue the moneys NASA is paying SpaceX are extremely cheap vs what they spent on STS.
If you add everything NASA paid to SpaceX so far, it's very little over a single STS mission total costs.
Another argument is comparing SpaceX provided CRS flights vs the flights booked with the Russians and even the Cygnus/Antares missions.
Plus many of the things SpaceX does have no usage outside of CRS and beyond GTO missions.
Elon stated that F9R / FH were designed with all human certification in mind and I derive from some of his talks that Dragon is far safer for humans than the STS could ever be just the way it's flying cargo, yet NASA asked for those extra features, so it's fair they're paying for them.
The NASA CRS contract with SpaceX is no jobs program or Pork Barrel deals.
Even DoD EELV launches come with many requirements that commercial customers don't require.
In a perfect world DoD / NASA no dragon missions could / should cost the same as a commercial contracts, but the customer asks for special things, that goes into the costs.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/27/2013 12:21 am
SpaceX will never be weaned off of gov't money. Neither will ULA or pretty much ANY launch vehicle provider! Government funding (in the form of goods and services, though sometimes also subsidies like Arianespace) pays for an ENORMOUS portion of the entire space industry. There are lots of reasons why.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: savuporo on 12/27/2013 12:28 am
Business is business.  Different contracts simply require different approaches.
Doing business with government, depending on the industry, requires substantially different approaches in many aspects of your business. And then when you enter military business, it gets even trickier.

Engaging with commercial and government civil agencies AND military customers at the same time does not come for free.
That applies regardless of the industry you are in.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Dalhousie on 12/27/2013 02:45 am
I detect a bias against odd numbers. It's kind of funny that we all have carefully reasoned explanations for our votes, but still somehow there are over twice as many votes for even numbers as odd numbers.

OK, I'll raise my vote to 5 :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Tass on 12/27/2013 10:13 am
I detect a bias against odd numbers. It's kind of funny that we all have carefully reasoned explanations for our votes, but still somehow there are over twice as many votes for even numbers as odd numbers.

Indeed. I have thought the same.

I was thinking about voting six or eight, then in the end I thougth: "why do I feel it has to be one of those?" and voted seven instead. But six and eight were oddly attracting.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: boinc on 12/27/2013 10:29 am
I detect a bias against odd numbers. It's kind of funny that we all have carefully reasoned explanations for our votes, but still somehow there are over twice as many votes for even numbers as odd numbers.

Indeed. I have thought the same.

I was thinking about voting six or eight, then in the end I thougth: "why do I feel it has to be one of those?" and voted seven instead. But six and eight were oddly attracting.

i felt the same. very strange... but in the end i went with 5.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: billh on 12/27/2013 04:24 pm
I detect a bias against odd numbers. It's kind of funny that we all have carefully reasoned explanations for our votes, but still somehow there are over twice as many votes for even numbers as odd numbers.

Indeed. I have thought the same.

I was thinking about voting six or eight, then in the end I thougth: "why do I feel it has to be one of those?" and voted seven instead. But six and eight were oddly attracting.

I voted eight right after the poll opened, but now wish I had voted seven - to be a bit more conservative, and also to fight for the rights of odd numbers everywhere!  :D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: aero on 12/27/2013 04:26 pm
Odds don't have rights, haven't you learned about "odd man out?" Well, its the same for numbers!  :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: edkyle99 on 12/27/2013 05:13 pm
I voted 3 for 2013.  I'll guess 5 for 2014.

 - Ed Kyle
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 12/27/2013 06:28 pm
I voted 3 for 2013.  I'll guess 5 for 2014.

 - Ed Kyle

might be a very good call Ed   Been leaning toward 6 with two unanswered items before I make a call.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: oiorionsbelt on 12/28/2013 04:35 am
I haven't voted yet.
ULA launched 11 times in 2013
I hope ULA launch more in 2014 than 2013 and I hope SpaceX launch more than ULA next year.
So that only leaves one option on the poll.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mariusuiram on 12/29/2013 05:26 am
I voted 7 to push to distribution towards normal.

But to create a rationale for my number, here we go:

Thaicom is January, CRS-3 in late February. I don't think they get a launch off in March.

2 launches per quarter gives 8, and would be my realistic view of planned launches. If we were guessing hardware delivery, 8 is my best guess, but for actual launch I expect the cumulative slip by year end to push out a Dec launch to 2015.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: spectre9 on 12/29/2013 07:37 am
I lowballed SpaceX in 2013 and they've proven they can launch without much prep time.

I think they can launch 3 in 4 months so that means 9-10. I'll go with 9.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rickl on 12/29/2013 09:38 pm
Before I read any of the comments or looked at the poll results, I picked 8.  I'm glad to see that I'm not completely out to lunch with that prediction.


Last year I guessed 4, and said it was fairly conservative.  I think my 8 prediction is fairly optimistic. But much of the delays in 2013 were due to the transition from v1.0 to v1.1, and now that they've gotten that out of the way, they should be able to get their flight rate up.


On the other hand, trying to rush too fast between launches increases the risk of failures caused by overwork or complacency.  My prediction assumes no major failures.


I'm not counting the pad abort, and I don't think FH will fly this year.  I think we will see a successful first stage recovery, and I'm still surprised by how well they did on the first test with the CASSIOPE launch.  I don't know what they will attempt to do with GH2, so I'll just wait and see.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: TripD on 12/30/2013 04:55 am
Hey folks! First time poster here. Just want to express my excitement for the coming year.  So, I got out my fuzzy dice and rolled me a nine.... not just any nine.... a Falcon nine! *snicker*
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: woods170 on 12/30/2013 09:20 am
Hey folks! First time poster here. Just want to express my excitement for the coming year.  So, I got out my fuzzy dice and rolled me a nine.... not just any nine.... a Falcon nine! *snicker*

Welcome to the forum!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jakusb on 12/30/2013 11:21 am

before then they are still in training mode... I know that sounds a bit harsh, but I say it out of belief that they can do it... just going to take time...

Agreed. I think the deciding factor for the number of launches in 2014 will be whether they get down to business and work the tempo problems, or they go off on some new upgrade adventure. Personally, I think that adventure will happen and it'll be called "Falcon Heavy".. or commercial crew.

I think they upgrade everything on their adventures including the elements they need to improve the flight rate. Elon Musk said before that you need to improve rocketry every single year. So far, it seems like the ambitions for 2014-15 are so great that, if achieved, SpaceX would simultaneously cross almost every single technical barrier the industry has achieved thus far and break some pretty new ground. I don't want to sound wild-eyed or overstate things, but it's nearly true. Multiple re-starts, RTLS, commercial crew, and super-heavy lift. People here always hold back and qualify statements like that with obligatory "if they are able to" or "if they don't fail." I don't feel the need to right now.

I suppose my point is that given the choice between a very efficient and long status quo built on years of experience and an every evolving bleeding edge, I'd choose the latter. I guess I'm just in love with that kind of thing. So whether SpaceX achieves a once a month rate really speaks a lot less to me than if they build the rocket that can potentially achieve once a day. The minute they stop striving for that goal and lose their ideals of pushing the edge of what can be done, I really wont care what their flight rate is.

So I don't really know what their flight rate will be or how many slips scrubs or full explosions will rock their launch pad. I just hope they don't waste a few years trying to get really good at doing the last thing they did.
+1!
I could not agree more. :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 12/30/2013 05:59 pm

before then they are still in training mode... I know that sounds a bit harsh, but I say it out of belief that they can do it... just going to take time...

Agreed. I think the deciding factor for the number of launches in 2014 will be whether they get down to business and work the tempo problems, or they go off on some new upgrade adventure. Personally, I think that adventure will happen and it'll be called "Falcon Heavy".. or commercial crew.

I think they upgrade everything on their adventures including the elements they need to improve the flight rate. Elon Musk said before that you need to improve rocketry every single year. So far, it seems like the ambitions for 2014-15 are so great that, if achieved, SpaceX would simultaneously cross almost every single technical barrier the industry has achieved thus far and break some pretty new ground. I don't want to sound wild-eyed or overstate things, but it's nearly true. Multiple re-starts, RTLS, commercial crew, and super-heavy lift. People here always hold back and qualify statements like that with obligatory "if they are able to" or "if they don't fail." I don't feel the need to right now.

I suppose my point is that given the choice between a very efficient and long status quo built on years of experience and an every evolving bleeding edge, I'd choose the latter. I guess I'm just in love with that kind of thing. So whether SpaceX achieves a once a month rate really speaks a lot less to me than if they build the rocket that can potentially achieve once a day. The minute they stop striving for that goal and lose their ideals of pushing the edge of what can be done, I really wont care what their flight rate is.

So I don't really know what their flight rate will be or how many slips scrubs or full explosions will rock their launch pad. I just hope they don't waste a few years trying to get really good at doing the last thing they did.
+1!
I could not agree more. :)

I voted 10 (8 CCAFS and 2 VAFB) because of skepticism on ability to effectively launch 1 a month at SLC-40. With the upcoming Jan 3 launch on track they are proving my skepticism (or being too pessimistic) is wrong. Here is for a very active 2014 and hopping my 10 is surpassed.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: StephenB on 12/30/2013 06:24 pm
I lowballed SpaceX in 2013 and they've proven they can launch without much prep time.

I think they can launch 3 in 4 months so that means 9-10. I'll go with 9.

I agree with your assessment and also voted 9. I have a feeling that the forum sentiment has swung a little too far to the conservative side. Time of course will tell.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Danderman on 12/30/2013 06:31 pm
I am going to be Wild and Crazy and vote for 6 (six) that actually launch, including any failures.



Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: intrepidpursuit on 12/31/2013 09:25 am
Ever optimistic, I voted for 10.

Based on what I've seen, they have plenty of manufacturing capacity to build 12 cores in 2014. The Thaicom, CRS-3, and GH2 cores at very least are already built, so that leaves enough for 9 F9 launches and 1 FH. Judging by the almost complete cores we saw earlier this year for launches that are slipping to next year, I think they are ahead of the game here.

I think CRS-3 has already been delayed and that SpaceX is going to insert Orbcomm before it. That bold move makes me think they are ready to get on a roll and average more than 1 launch a month from CCAFS. I'd bet Elon's goal is 12 launches for the year. That being said, it won't go perfectly and they may have to leave big gaps for abort tests, so they will only get 8 off from CCAFS.

Falcon Heavy has customers waiting and government contracts to be had once it is tested, so I think they will not let that slip past 2014. CONAE should also make it because it will be unaffected by the schedule slips that will happen on the east coast.

At bare minimum I think we will have 2 Orbcomm, 2 Asiasat, and 3 CRS launches. These customers have all been waiting and I think Spacex is ready to start checking them off. Plus either CONAE or FH from the west coast, my minimum prediction is 8.

If all goes exactly right, as many as 13 are possible, with 11 from the east coast and 2 from the west. For that to happen I think they would have to move at least the in-flight abort test to the west coast to free up SLC-40. Since neither flight goes anywhere but in the water, the only real limitation is dragon processing facilities which may not exist at vandenberg.

So that is my prediction: 8-13 flights with 10 being my best guess. I voted 4 for 2013 and there is a good chance 10 is also too optimistic, but I'm going for it.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 12/31/2013 09:44 am
Chris and William suggest no new slip:

Quote
With the Thaicom-6 mission looking good for its January 3 launch date, plenty of time will be available to turnaround SLC-40 for the CRS-3 mission, which is currently tracking a February 11 launch date.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Barrie on 12/31/2013 12:17 pm
Chris and William suggest no new slip:

Quote
With the Thaicom-6 mission looking good for its January 3 launch date, plenty of time will be available to turnaround SLC-40 for the CRS-3 mission, which is currently tracking a February 11 launch date.

February 22 according to SpaceflightNow launch schedule
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Heinrich on 12/31/2013 02:22 pm
The 22nd of Feb probably comes from the VV schedule in the iss presentation at NAC HEOC meeting from early december.

http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/20131210_ISS_NAC_FINAL_TAGGED.pdf
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: imspacy on 12/31/2013 09:58 pm
I believe at some point they will do a re-usability long run test.
With just a tiny payload, it might be possible to do SSTO
Ha! I will happily send you a ham sandwich if SpaceX flies a single stage vehicle to orbit in 2014.
Not so fast, my friends... imagine what happens if SpaceX achieves core return in February with CRS-3.... so much changes... more if, as I expect and Elon has promised, reuse is rapid..
SpaceX could launch a Falcon Heavy demo flight with crossfeed... with no second stage... orbit the center core including sufficient fuel to de-orbit the core for reentry, return the sides AND the de-orbited legged center core for reuse.... would that count as a SSTO? 'single stage to orbit' and full rocket REUSE?...a double winner?...

What would be the payload for a crossfeed FH with center core reuse and no second stage? Tons perhaps? Depends, of course, on the eventual required fuel for reentry/landing... but it could be substantial...tons I guess..

SpaceX could launch tons to LEO with full reuse..with a cost of only fuel and operations...  unlimited by production of engines or cores... could they re-launch the same FH, all 3 cores, in late 2014?
Why not?
Happy new year, fellow NSFers.... next year promises to be quite a ride.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: R.Simko on 12/31/2013 10:30 pm
Interesting that after someone mentions that few people chose an odd number of flights, that number of people who are choosing an odd number seems to have increased dramatically.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Rabidpanda on 01/01/2014 12:23 am
SpaceX could launch a Falcon Heavy demo flight with crossfeed... with no second stage... orbit the center core including sufficient fuel to de-orbit the core for reentry, return the sides AND the de-orbited legged center core for reuse....

How is the center core going to re-enter from orbital velocity with no heat shield?

Quote
would that count as a SSTO?

No, of course not.

Quote
SpaceX could launch tons to LEO with full reuse..with a cost of only fuel and operations...  unlimited by production of engines or cores... could they re-launch the same FH, all 3 cores, in late 2014?
Why not?

You've completely left the realm of realistic predictions with this post.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 01/01/2014 01:28 am
Not so fast, my friends... imagine what happens if SpaceX achieves core return in February with CRS-3.... ....

What would be the payload for a crossfeed FH with center core reuse and no second stage? ...

Happy new year, fellow NSFers.... next year promises to be quite a ride.

Serious people are doing serious calculations on potential systems.  This is not one of them.

And this is off topic. 

And Happy New Year to you.  2014 will be an exciting year, including an unknown number of orbital launches by Space X, which brings us back to the topic of the thread.

Interesting that after someone mentions that few people chose an odd number of flights, that number of people who are choosing an odd number seems to have increased dramatically.

Yes there has, and people have been skewing their votes to the center of the distribution. 
People!  This is no about being cool.  It is your guess. 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 01/01/2014 01:34 am
Interesting that after someone mentions that few people chose an odd number of flights, that number of people who are choosing an odd number seems to have increased dramatically.

Yes there has, and people have been skewing their votes to the center of the distribution. 
People!  This is no about being cool.  It is your guess. 

Entirely expected as the vote count increases... You have seen a normal distribution curve, right? (aka 'bell curve') It may not have anything to do with "being cool".
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 01/01/2014 02:23 am
I voted 6 (when the thread first started) because I think they can do 5.  January 3rd is so early I'll count it as a bonus.  In other words, if they launch on the 3rd, I think they'll do 5 between January 4th, 2014 and January 3rd, 2015.

I voted 3 last year when the vote seemed to be peaking at 4 so voting 6 this year when the vote seems to be peaking at 8 seems consistent.  Past results do guarantee future performance, right?

That said, I'll be right here cheering with the rest of you if they get more.  You won't catch me whining about having to watch too many rocket launches!!!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: TrevorMonty on 01/01/2014 02:40 am
Vote 10 commercial flights.

Thought they would have done the abort tests and Vanderberg considering how busy Cape Canaveral is.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: jg on 01/01/2014 03:24 am
NASA probably wants to practice its own procedures for an abort.  Vandenburg would make that hard.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dcporter on 01/01/2014 05:52 am
Interesting that after someone mentions that few people chose an odd number of flights, that number of people who are choosing an odd number seems to have increased dramatically.

All kinds of bad behavior can be curtailed by simply drawing attention to it! ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lourens on 01/01/2014 02:09 pm
If only it was always this easy in statistics :). I voted 8 early on, based on the list of planned launches, the fact that it's a nice round number, and, well, nothing else really.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rickl on 01/01/2014 02:59 pm
If only it was always this easy in statistics :) . I voted 8 early on, based on the list of planned launches, the fact that it's a nice round number, and, well, nothing else really.


I picked 8 before I even looked at this thread.  No rationalization or justification; I just pulled a number out of the air.


I was pleasantly surprised when I looked at the poll results.   ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: tigerade on 01/01/2014 04:28 pm
Happy New Year everyone!  Just a reminder, the poll closes on Jan 19th.  Please get your votes in before then.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mongo62 on 01/01/2014 04:50 pm
Personally, I think the poll should close before the next launch attempt. Waiting to see if it succeeds or fails strikes me as little more than cheating, to be honest.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AJW on 01/01/2014 05:20 pm
The shape of the 2013 launch poll compared to the 2014 poll is a pretty clear indicator that the company has crossed a significant threshold.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30684.0
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 01/01/2014 05:35 pm
Personally, I think the poll should close before the next launch attempt. Waiting to see if it succeeds or fails strikes me as little more than cheating, to be honest.

Cheating is when someone has an unfair advantage. No cheating here, just decision-making.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rickl on 01/01/2014 05:57 pm
Personally, I think the poll should close before the next launch attempt. Waiting to see if it succeeds or fails strikes me as little more than cheating, to be honest.


Yes, I do agree with that.  Last year, the first scheduled launch was in March, if I recall correctly.  This year it's January 3.


The shape of the 2013 launch poll compared to the 2014 poll is a pretty clear indicator that the company has crossed a significant threshold.


That's for sure.  Nobody has picked 2 or 3.  That means that pretty much everybody expects SpaceX to have more successful flights in 2014 than they did in 2013.


I see that two people picked 1, and frankly, I don't understand their reasoning.  Even if Thaicom 6 blows up on the pad, I don't see why it would take a full year to repair the damage and try again.  And they still have Vandenberg.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mongo62 on 01/01/2014 07:21 pm
Personally, I think the poll should close before the next launch attempt. Waiting to see if it succeeds or fails strikes me as little more than cheating, to be honest.

Cheating is when someone has an unfair advantage. No cheating here, just decision-making.

Okay, you are right that cheating is too strong a word. But it is clear that those people who wait until after the upcoming launch's success or failure will have a huge advantage over those who entered their votes before that time. If it succeeds, that gives a good indication that a high launch rate is likely, but if it fails, the expected number of launches would be significantly lower. I strongly recommend that this poll be cut off before the launch.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 01/01/2014 09:52 pm
Okay, you are right that cheating is too strong a word. But it is clear that those people who wait until after the upcoming launch's success or failure will have a huge advantage over those who entered their votes before that time. If it succeeds, that gives a good indication that a high launch rate is likely, but if it fails, the expected number of launches would be significantly lower.
Description of poll clearly indicates author expected it. "With Thaicom pushed to Jan 2014, everyone gets a freebie launch". Case closed.

I strongly recommend that this poll be cut off before the launch.
I strongly recommend everyone voting after Thaicom launch (or before closing of poll).

I see that two people picked 1, and frankly, I don't understand their reasoning.
It is just oppposite extreme of SpaceX fan-bois - SpaceX haters with wishful thinking expectations that Thaicom F9 will do Kerbal and subsequent return to flight campaign will last more than year. In other words, pretty much only thing that could allow business as usual for usual suspects. Of course, in reality even that would only delay inevitable.

I must say it is only slightly more realistic than expectations of 12+ launches.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: llanitedave on 01/02/2014 01:33 am

It is just oppposite extreme of SpaceX fan-bois - SpaceX haters with wishful thinking expectations that Thaicom F9 will do Kerbal and subsequent return to flight campaign will last more than year. In other words, pretty much only thing that could allow business as usual for usual suspects. Of course, in reality even that would only delay inevitable.

I must say it is only slightly more realistic than expectations of 12+ launches.

I wouldn't have made the strike-through.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 01/02/2014 01:58 am
Interesting that after someone mentions that few people chose an odd number of flights, that number of people who are choosing an odd number seems to have increased dramatically.

Yes there has, and people have been skewing their votes to the center of the distribution. 
People!  This is no about being cool.  It is your guess. 
Entirely expected as the vote count increases... You have seen a normal distribution curve, right? (aka 'bell curve') It may not have anything to do with "being cool".

Of course I am aware of the normal distribution, Lars_J.  There is weak statistical evidence to support that statement, although the confidence interval is not tight.  You will see it when I post my evaluation next week.  (Waiting for the poll to close won't have much effect, as the results have shifted only slightly from the third day, or even from the first day.)

edit: On the other hand, people keep voting for 12+, and my evaluation isn't much impacted by those votes.  Just attempting to be "fair".
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 01/02/2014 04:47 am
Personally, I think the poll should close before the next launch attempt. Waiting to see if it succeeds or fails strikes me as little more than cheating, to be honest.

Cheating is when someone has an unfair advantage. No cheating here, just decision-making.

Okay, you are right that cheating is too strong a word. But it is clear that those people who wait until after the upcoming launch's success or failure will have a huge advantage over those who entered their votes before that time. If it succeeds, that gives a good indication that a high launch rate is likely, but if it fails, the expected number of launches would be significantly lower. I strongly recommend that this poll be cut off before the launch.
Too late. You should've spoken up earlier.

And there's nothing preventing everyone from voting later, it's just that some are impatient.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: solartear on 01/02/2014 05:12 am
11

Just barely missed my lower bound for 2013 >:(.  With delays (internal and external) and escape-system tests, they'll only get 10 F9 from Canaveral.

First FH demo can be done largely in parallel to F9 work, at McGregor and Vandenberg. And enough people will be focused on it that it will launch near end of 2014. SpaceX really wants FH going so they can get big, military launches.

2014 will be a big year with many important firsts/milestones for SpaceX finally getting done. Looking forward with much anticipation, as are all.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dcporter on 01/02/2014 05:43 pm
Seven. I slightly undervoted my instinct last year and it came out on the nose, so I'll do the same this year. Also... um odd numbers and stuff.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: erics2112 on 01/02/2014 09:44 pm
In reading through the posts - it seems that everyone is assuming that the MaxQ abort test will be a suborbital flight.  To my (limited) understanding, the MaxQ test is to confirm that the Dragon has the ability to get away from the booster.  So I have to ask - will the additional aerodynamic forces on the booster preclude a trip to orbit after the Dragon has separated?  Since it's not a conical shape - I can see additional drag from this configuration - but is that drag enough to destabilize the booster after Dragon separation?  And, if it can go to orbit - could be a way to get some student cubesats into orbit :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 01/02/2014 10:01 pm
So I have to ask - will the additional aerodynamic forces on the booster preclude a trip to orbit after the Dragon has separated?  Since it's not a conical shape - I can see additional drag from this configuration - but is that drag enough to destabilize the booster after Dragon separation?

The sudden increase in drag and other aerodynamic forces will be enough to literally crush and shred the vehicle in a matter of seconds. In any case, I think that they'll take the opportunity to test the FTS in a all-up 'live' configuration for the first time.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: smoliarm on 01/02/2014 10:03 pm
... 
So I have to ask - will the additional aerodynamic forces on the booster preclude a trip to orbit after the Dragon has separated? 
Main engine shutdown during abort - this is the thing which precludes trip to orbit :)
Most of the engines on the first stage are not restartable.

Quote
Since it's not a conical shape - I can see additional drag from this configuration - but is that drag enough to destabilize the booster after Dragon separation? 
Most likely, this "drag" is strong enough to tear apart the buster immediately after Dragon separation

Quote
And, if it can go to orbit - could be a way to get some student cubesats into orbit :)
I'm afraid no.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mark S on 01/03/2014 01:26 am
I guessed three launches for SpaceX last year, which was said to be pessimistic at the time. So even though twelve launches are on the schedule, I am going to go with eight for 2014.

Although this could also be said to be pessimistic, eight launches would be almost three times the 2013 flight rate. Thus it would still be a big step forward for SpaceX, and for American launch capabilities.

Mark S.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mark S on 01/03/2014 01:45 am
Funny how the even and odd votes have their own separate bell curves going (at this time). Hm.
And that's with people purposely voting odd numbers to correct the "disparity".
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 01/03/2014 02:43 pm
Ok, voted... was going to wait, but blame it on the cold weather up here, -26 C. felt like -40, at 8 am this morning...
 
    I went with 6 flights this year... 3 CRS (3 to 5) pushed 6 into 2015...
    No FH-Demo, think they will have more technical problems than expected, range and weather issues as well..
    as for the commercial side... it would seem that they are going to hold to the highest possible level guarantee of mission successes: in other words they want 99% assurance of launch/mission success, and will wait for that.. thereby pulling their launches to the right...
    it is a pessimists guess, but I was optimistic last year and got belted  :o so this year I am leaning the other way...

Good Luck for 2014, SpaceX and May All Your Blind Squirrels Find Nuts....  ;D

Gramps
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Excession on 01/03/2014 05:54 pm
... 
So I have to ask - will the additional aerodynamic forces on the booster preclude a trip to orbit after the Dragon has separated? 
Main engine shutdown during abort - this is the thing which precludes trip to orbit :)
Most of the engines on the first stage are not restartable.

I was under the impression that all M-1Ds were identical, unlike previous versions. Is that incorrect?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 01/03/2014 06:42 pm
... 
So I have to ask - will the additional aerodynamic forces on the booster preclude a trip to orbit after the Dragon has separated? 
Main engine shutdown during abort - this is the thing which precludes trip to orbit :)
Most of the engines on the first stage are not restartable.

I was under the impression that all M-1Ds were identical, unlike previous versions. Is that incorrect?

No you're right. It's obvious from their countdown process that they are re-startable. We've seen it done.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 01/03/2014 06:43 pm

No you're right. It's obvious from their countdown process that they are re-startable. We've seen it done.

But not all can restart inflight.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: JBF on 01/03/2014 07:13 pm

No you're right. It's obvious from their countdown process that they are re-startable. We've seen it done.

But not all can restart inflight.

My understanding is the engines are identical, however when integrated into the vehicle the ignition plumbing is connected differently.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: CraigLieb on 01/03/2014 07:55 pm
Wildly enthusiastic for: 12
hoping for:10
voted for: 6

Expect Delays Delays Delays Delays Delays... today perfect example.
The cost of a failure is too damaging to SpaceX reputation. They might even grow their business by demonstrating extra care so they don't lose a rocket (and somebody's expensive payload). This becomes particularly true when there are people up there.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Proponent on 01/03/2014 08:13 pm
I'm going for 5.

I doubt FH will fly in 2014, so that leaves just one launch from VAFB.

As for the Cape, I assume Thaicom 6 is a given.  That leaves 8 other launches on the manifest:  2 commercial, 4 CRS launches and 2 Dragon tests.  Though the last two are presumably sub-orbital and don't count, they will nonetheless tie up SLC-40.  Given range issues, weather, the need to prep Dragons for most flights, and ISS constraints, I really don't expect SLC-40 to average a launch every six weeks as would be needed to get all of those birds off the pad in 2014.  I think SpaceX will do well to average one launch every three months, giving a total of five.  But if one of those five is suborbital, then we're looking at just 4 orbital launches from the East Coast.  If there's another significant anomaly, then there could easily be a hiatus of a few months.  So, I'll guess 4 from the Cape, giving a total of 5.

It was mighty nice of SpaceX to give us spacexstats.com just in time for all of us here to kibbitz.  :)

By the way, how will any failures be counted in determining the winners in a year's time?

EDIT:   I forgot to mention space weather as another source of delays. :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: TOG on 01/03/2014 08:15 pm
Had to go with 10.

Based on the flight rates once F9.1 started launching, and with the aspect that they will "get better at it", they should be able to launch one a month (regardless of where they go from). That gives an even dozen with the Pad Abort Test and Max-Q Abort taking two out of that set. 

Will they launch F9H?  No clue.  Just my swag! ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: pericynthion on 01/03/2014 08:34 pm
It was mighty nice of SpaceX to give us spacexstats.com just in time for all of us here to kibbitz.  :)

That's a fan site, not SpaceX.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 01/03/2014 09:00 pm
Wildly enthusiastic for: 12
hoping for:10
voted for: 6

Expect Delays Delays Delays Delays Delays... today perfect example.
The cost of a failure is too damaging to SpaceX reputation. They might even grow their business by demonstrating extra care so they don't lose a rocket (and somebody's expensive payload). This becomes particularly true when there are people up there.
Finally, someone who understands that the poll isn't about what you /want/ to happen but what you think /will/ happen!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Hirox on 01/03/2014 09:21 pm
It was mighty nice of SpaceX to give us spacexstats.com just in time for all of us here to kibbitz.  :)

That's a fan site, not SpaceX.


Yes it's made by "Echologic" on reddit. spacexstats.com (http://spacexstats.com)

I voted 6, but i do believe that 8 is possible.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Barrie on 01/03/2014 09:29 pm
It was mighty nice of SpaceX to give us spacexstats.com just in time for all of us here to kibbitz.  :)

That's a fan site, not SpaceX.

It presently shows a countdown to the Thaicom 6 launch.  10 minutes to go!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jarnis on 01/03/2014 09:37 pm
It was mighty nice of SpaceX to give us spacexstats.com just in time for all of us here to kibbitz.  :)

That's a fan site, not SpaceX.

It presently shows a countdown to the Thaicom 6 launch.  10 minutes to go!

Guess the site guy didn't get the memo about the slip yet :)

But yeah, had there been no slip it would be launch party time right about now (3min to the original planned launch time)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: go4mars on 01/05/2014 02:53 am
I find it encouraging that
>90% of 344 votes (so far) have assumed 6 or more
orbital SpaceX flights this year in 2014



Edit: Distilled it further.   :-X
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 01/05/2014 04:19 am
I find it encouraging that 90% of 343 votes (so far) have assumed 6 or more [please don't move]orbital SpaceX flights this year[/ [lplease don't move].
That might be the most annoying post ever.  Now that I know how to do it,  I will be sure to not. ::)

And a day without votes is like a day without...more data.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 01/06/2014 12:29 am
Before their first launch of 2014 votes lean toward 8 launches with 6 running second.
 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: STS-200 on 01/06/2014 10:47 am
8, with a spirit of optimism that nothing major will go wrong.

1 Thaicom
3 CRS
2 Asiasat
1 Orbcomm
1 F-H (just about)

Anything currently scheduled for December, or "TBD" will be into 2015.

They are serious about the GTO/GEO market, meaning F-H is their future and they will want to focus on ensuring the process of demonstrating it is started sooner rather than later.

F-9 isn't powerful enough for that market, especially once you add in the reusability margins. No reason why it should not have a good future in the LEO market & for medium budget science missions.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 01/06/2014 02:50 pm
SpaceflightNow (http://www.spaceflightnow.com/falcon9/008/140105preview/) would vote for eight or nine. ;)
Perhaps they are reading this poll.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: smoliarm on 01/06/2014 08:27 pm
voted 7, before today's launch, so that they wouldn't say I cheated ;)
Actually, I would wait more - but not for the result of the launch. (Despite the popular opinion, result of this launch gives NO advantage for late voters). But I would wait to see:
1. How smooth it goes;
2. what are votes of the late voters
"Listen to the patient one" -- Pliny the Elder
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Tea Party Space Czar on 01/06/2014 09:30 pm
Voted Seven, which means probably six.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Zed_Noir on 01/06/2014 09:40 pm
Voted 10, 9 F9 ver1.1 plus the FH. Being optimums about the FH.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 01/06/2014 09:47 pm
Well, those who voted '1' are at least now safe from being accused of optimism!  ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 01/06/2014 10:08 pm
Now with official confirmation of Thaicom 6 successful launch, I can cast my vote. It did not changed, as my Preliminary Vote Estimator (tm) assumed this launch will be successful.

So, seven launches (including Thaicom 6) in 2014. I will be happy if I undershooted this.

Well, those who voted '1' are at least now safe from being accused of optimism!  ;D
You know, it is basically impossible there will be only one launch this year... ;) Even biggest pessimists* counted more launches (four) than in 2013.

* I do not count these two votes (newpyong, is that you?) clearly driven by what they wanted to happen, not that they think will really happen.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: R7 on 01/06/2014 10:13 pm
I'm optimistic. 5
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Rocket Science on 01/06/2014 10:15 pm
Do we count slips carried over to the new year as a scheduled launch? We need a judges's ruling (Chris?)  :D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 01/06/2014 10:19 pm
Do we count slips carried over to the new year as a scheduled launch? We need a judges's ruling (Chris?)  :D
Slips does not matter, just actual launch date.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: DavidH on 01/06/2014 10:33 pm
With optimism from today's launch, I've voted for 9, just higher than the current average.
Let's just say this is my way of sending some good vibes their way.
Good Luck SpaceX!!
Now, may I please be allowed to breathe during your launches?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 01/06/2014 10:50 pm
One thing is at least clear... With this launch, SpaceX has demonstrated their ability to launch two rockets from the same launch pad within ~30 days (32 actually).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: tigerade on 01/06/2014 11:27 pm
Alright, everybody has received their freebie launch.  The next launch of the Falcon 9 is scheduled for Feb 22, and this poll ends on Jan 19.  So we have a little less than two weeks to get the final votes in.  I hope everyone had fun with this poll, as that was the objective somewhat. 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rockinghorse on 01/07/2014 12:06 am
I'm optimistic. 5
I think that you are sarcastic, not optimistic.

9 or 10 probably correct for optimistic case.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: 411rocket on 01/07/2014 12:07 am
One thing is at least clear... With this launch, SpaceX has demonstrated their ability to launch two rockets from the same launch pad within ~30 days (32 actually).

With the Xmas & New Years holidays, included in this time frame as well.  8)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rickl on 01/07/2014 12:14 am
December 3 to January 6 is actually 34 days, but who's counting?   ;)


It's still the quickest turnaround that SpaceX has achieved so far, and I'm glad it went off as scheduled this time, after all the aborts and scrubs on SES-8.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: sweet-d on 01/07/2014 12:27 am
I voted voted for 8 even though I don't think they will successfully launch that many times.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: mme on 01/07/2014 12:35 am
I'm going with 9 which is probably optimistic given everything they are trying to accomplish and the fact that Space is Hard (tm). But the Kool-Aide is so sweet, I can't resist.  ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: TripD on 01/07/2014 01:28 am
One down.... just 8 more to go!  8)

Grats on a flawless launch today SpaceX!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 01/07/2014 06:05 am
I voted voted for 8 even though I don't think they will successfully launch that many times.
It's 8 from 8 now so no reason to suspect it can't continue.  I think you'll win your 'gamble'.  :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jarnis on 01/07/2014 06:43 am
One down, 11 more to go.

(me? optimist?)  ???
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: manboy on 01/07/2014 07:12 am
Late to the party but I'm going to go with six launches for 2014.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: smoliarm on 01/07/2014 08:59 am
I'm optimistic. 5
I think that you are sarcastic, not optimistic.

9 or 10 probably correct for optimistic case.

No, it's not that simple.
He is optimistically realistic with his own vote, while being sarcastically optimistic about "9 or 10 optimistic case". Probably, just like me :D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 01/07/2014 01:51 pm
I've just voted 8. I was waiting for an indication that the Falcon 9  had transitioned from an experimental work-in-progress to fully operational launch system. That indication is still pending, but their launch turn around time indicates that they are learning and evolving quickly. I would not be surprised with some delays concerning CRS-3 and CRS-4 and to other Dragon-related activities however.

I expect the satellite launches to become fairly routine after Orb-1 due to fixes from the first few flights being implemented further up the production and processing chain. After watching the last three launches, I no longer feel the need to predict a major failure due to their display of competent problem-solving and conservative launch readiness evaluation procedures. I also have enough evidence to suggest that they can turn around the pad in under a month.

Therefore, I find it reasonable to assume that they would target once a month throughout 2014 with delays due to CRS, Falcon Heavy, CCiCap activities, and routine problem-solving. I expect these delays to be constrained to about 4 months of slips with a lower bound of two months of slips. Thus my prediction is 8-10 launches.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Okie_Steve on 01/07/2014 01:56 pm
I went with 9 for pretty much the same reasons. Goal is once a month, reality probably more like 6 weeks. But we got a freebie early this year so I figure they can get in 9 rather than 8.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: smoliarm on 01/07/2014 02:14 pm
First, the bitter truth:  Space launches are about payloads

Yes, rockets do not fly without PL’s   :o

Therefore, before estimating production rates, pad turnaround time etc, it’s better to start with counting payloads scheduled for 2014, especially for optimists with high expectations (12+)
I attached the 2014* part of manifest  (* - vehicle arrives at the launch site in 2014)

The last two sats are listed as due in 1Q 2015 on the sites of their manufacturers, they are not going to fly in 2014...
Three others ##10, 11, 12 marked in yellow – for them there is no direct confirmation yet of their slip into 2015, but the information available suggests that such slip is most likely.

This makes choices “11” and “12 or more” – impossible.
There are ten payloads only with “ready in 2014” status.

Second bitter truth:  SpaceX’ space launches are about the “pay” part in “payload”

In the remaining list, there are three flights – ##2, 4, and 5 – which are not fully funded by customers. There is no paying customer for Falcon Heavy, and for two Orbcom launches, there will be only ~$40M payment total (i.e., they are less than 50% funded). Or, in $ terms, these three launches make $200M deficit in revenue. Is it possible for SpaceX to pull such deficit? – I don’t know, I’m not an expert, but for me it’s enough to doubt "10 flights in 2014" like 11 or 12.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Elmar Moelzer on 01/07/2014 03:29 pm

Or, in $ terms, these three launches make $200M deficit in revenue. Is it possible for SpaceX to pull such deficit? – I don’t know, I’m not an expert, but for me it’s enough to doubt "10 flights in 2014" like 11 or 12.
No, they don't make a 200 million USD deficit. You are confusing price with cost. The price for an F9 launch may be 50 million, but the cost to SpaceX is a lot less, same goes for FH. 20 million might still cover the cost of the F9 launch for SpaceX, but not make a profit.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: smoliarm on 01/07/2014 03:38 pm

Or, in $ terms, these three launches make $200M deficit in revenue. Is it possible for SpaceX to pull such deficit? – I don’t know, I’m not an expert, but for me it’s enough to doubt "10 flights in 2014" like 11 or 12.
No, they don't make a 200 million USD deficit. You are confusing price with cost. The price for an F9 launch may be 50 million, but the cost to SpaceX is a lot less, same goes for FH. 20 million might still cover the cost of the F9 launch for SpaceX, but not make a profit.

No, I don't think I confused them - I said "deficit in revenue"

>>20 million might still cover the cost of the F9 launch for SpaceX, but not make a profit.
"might still" -- Wow...
So, you mean EACH their launch brings them 180% in profit - this deserves 2 wows :)
100% * (56-20) / 20 = 180

I heard fairly modest estimate for the profit margins in launch industry - like 10%...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Elmar Moelzer on 01/07/2014 03:42 pm
No, I don't think I confused them - I said "deficit in revenue"
Whatever that is supposed to mean.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: aero on 01/07/2014 04:08 pm
I finally got around to voting. Didn't get around to it last year so no track record.

I voted 9 without counting Thiacom-6 or FH. Why? Our http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=15134.0 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=15134.0) consolidated launch manifest shows 7 more launches with NET dates, or 8 counting Thaicom-6 or 9 if FH is also counted but as we know FH doesn't show a firm NET, just the quarter. SpaceX shows 13 plus Thiacom-6 and FH for 2014. Anyway, I speculate 8 more launches in 2014 with FH up in the air, maybe, maybe not. I do think FH has a good chance of going in the 4-th quarter or 1-st quarter 2015. 50/50 I'd say based on the time it took to get the first F 9 v1.1 off the pad after CRS-2.

One thing I will add is that I expect the SpaceX manifest to grow in 2014, especially during the last half of the year. If their is anything at all to the thought that lower launch prices will attract the market then we could see a very dramatic increase in the SpaceX backlog once prospects become confident in the performance of Falcon 9. And that should start to happen real soon.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Pete on 01/07/2014 04:58 pm
Considering how much went wrong with the Thaicom launch ("almost nothing" is also a quantity!),
I expect some people will be looking to expect more launches this year that previously predicted...

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 01/07/2014 06:55 pm
Considering how much went wrong with the Thaicom launch ("almost nothing" is also a quantity!),
I expect some people will be looking to expect more launches this year that previously predicted...
I was starting to consider 5 launches before Thaicom was successful. I am becoming more confident in 6, but we'll see what the next week and a half bring.

This stuff is hard, and every time they do a launch or a similar activity, there's always a non-negligible chance of a delay due to some problem they uncover. So with a quite successful launch, I've done a little Bayesian updating. I might even entertain the idea of 7 launches (if I find out there are two cores already tested in Texas with one on the way and four more cores getting their finishing touches in Hawthorne with a switcheroo of Falcon Heavy and Conae at Vandenberg), but I sincerely doubt it.

Of course, this is in contrast with what I HOPE they'll do, which is... as many launches as they can while being fully successful and doing reuse and in-flight abort, etc. But this is a poll of what I expect to happen, not what I want. I'd WANT everyone to be successful and a huge amount of commercial demand and a big increase in NASA (and ESA's and Roscosmos'...) budget. But especially the last one won't happen. Stuff just always takes longer than you'd want.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 01/07/2014 09:00 pm
Robo,

When I figured out my number, I tried to figure out the failure modes and then tried to evaluate how likely each one was. Can I ask what you think would prevent SpaceX from doing 7 launches. Was it their production and testing rate? Do you assume it to be in sufficient until you see more cores?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 01/07/2014 09:29 pm
Robo,

When I figured out my number, I tried to figure out the failure modes and then tried to evaluate how likely each one was. Can I ask what you think would prevent SpaceX from doing 7 launches. Was it their production and testing rate? Do you assume it to be in sufficient until you see more cores?
Well, mostly because I think that 1 launch every 2 months per launch site is a difficult-enough goal. And from what I can tell, they aren't likely to have another launch at Vandenberg this year. Falcon Heavy (in actual hardware form) has not been seen yet and is supposed to be before the Conae launch there, and I believe the payload for Conae is not yet ready (someone correct me!).

Also, I haven't seen that many cores, so production rate isn't a given, either. Besides, there are 5 cores that could be used this year but won't count toward the orbital launch rate: Falcon Heavy (3 cores, two of which are different, none of which we have yet seen), F9R (which we HAVE seen but which won't be going to orbit), and the in-flight abort core (which seems very likely to slip into 2015 based on Musk's comments).

It's not like I don't think they'll be busy with other things. They will be making big strides in Falcon Heavy. Dragon crew will see at least a pad abort this year (I'm fairly confident), besides getting ready for the in-flight abort. F9R will be tested at McGregor and perhaps even flying around New Mexico. I'm confident they WILL try to do more first stage recoveries this year, and they may well succeed (possibly even with a land landing... which would be a huge milestone). And besides, a good 3 or 4 of their flights in 2014 will be Dragon cargo to ISS. Those are very complex missions with in-orbit and recovery operations, and it will be an unparalleled challenge to pull even 3 of them off this year, let alone 4 of them.

And people assume that just because SpaceX flew some rockets that they'll continue the same launch rate in the future without problem are wrong. After the first 2 Falcon 9 flights (the last one which included a flight and recovery of a Dragon capsule) in 7 months, it took 17 months until they flew Falcon 9 again so that 2011 had /zero/ SpaceX flights (everyone seemed to assume several flights). Now, SpaceX has grown A LOT since then, but it's no use down-playing their capabilities, but I don't think we can extrapolate an ever-increasing launch rate per pad. 1 month between launches per pad is probably close to the limit, and I think 1.5-2 months is a more feasible average eventually (which won't really be a huge problem long-term, since they probably will have 4 pads available by 2016... giving them at least a 24 flight per year possible launch rate... though I won't be surprised if they end up shutting down a site).

You hear how hectic the workers seemed to do 2 launches with ~5 weeks between them. I think 8 weeks is more realistic long-term, plus you have the pad-abort and the more complex Dragon launches.

That's why I'm thinking 6 this year. But you're right that 7 launches could happen. Just assume Falcon Heavy won't happen in 2014 and all the December or TBD launches get pushed off to 2015.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 01/07/2014 09:48 pm
(bold are my assumptions)

01 - January 6 - Thaicom 6 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 -22:06 completed

February 22 - Dragon SpX-3 (CRS3), etc- Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 assume launch on time

NET March - Orbcomm G2 (x8) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 assume 8 weeks later, April 19th

April - AsiaSat 8 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 assume 8 weeks later, June 14th

May - AsiaSat 6 (Thaicom 7) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 assume 8 weeks later, August 9th

June 6 - Dragon SpX-4 (CRS4) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 launches October 4th, basically in place of one of Orbital's flights which may also be delayed due to some currently-unforeseen reason

pad abort sometime near the end of the year, like November or December? Though for all we know could be in March this year or something

NET 2nd quarter - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Vandenberg SLC-4E assume delayed until 2015, probably produces an awesome show in McGregor, though

September 12 - Dragon SpX-5 (CRS5) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 assume next slot, possibly SpX-6's slot, on Dec. 5th or something, easily could fall into 2015

Again, there's going to be a pad abort in there somewhere, as well as a few F9R tests. (we at very least know the core is basically finished, so it's probably going to do some sort of flight in 2014... and since they're itching for recovery, I bet it'll be in the first half of the year sometime.)

Also, look for recovery work.

Regardless, even with just 6 (or even 5) orbital flights, it's going to be an incredibly busy year for SpaceX (and NASASpaceflight.com).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mongo62 on 01/07/2014 11:24 pm
1 month between launches per pad is probably close to the limit, and I think 1.5-2 months is a more feasible average eventually.

You hear how hectic the workers seemed to do 2 launches with ~5 weeks between them. I think 8 weeks is more realistic long-term, plus you have the pad-abort and the more complex Dragon launches.

Maybe, but Thaicom 6 was originally set to launch on Christmas day, 22 days after the SES-8 launch. The ultimate launch date was pushed back a couple of weeks, but SpaceX must have thought that they could manage a three-week turnaround time.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 01/07/2014 11:27 pm
1 month between launches per pad is probably close to the limit, and I think 1.5-2 months is a more feasible average eventually.

You hear how hectic the workers seemed to do 2 launches with ~5 weeks between them. I think 8 weeks is more realistic long-term, plus you have the pad-abort and the more complex Dragon launches.

Maybe, but Thaicom 6 was originally set to launch on Christmas day, 22 days after the SES-8 launch. The ultimate launch date was pushed back a couple of weeks, but SpaceX must have thought that they could manage a three-week turnaround time.
They /hoped/ to manage a 3-week turnaround time. And I think it's possibly they may do it in the future. But it will take a while to get there, not overnight.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 01/08/2014 12:01 am
They /hoped/ to manage a 3-week turnaround time. And I think it's possibly they may do it in the future. But it will take a while to get there, not overnight.

How many would have given SpaceX a chance of launching from the same pad with a 34 day gap (including two holidays) just a few months ago. Not many (and probably NOT you). But they have.

It is one thing to be a reasonable sceptic, and its another thing to not believe *anything* until you have literally seen it.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: arachnitect on 01/08/2014 12:20 am
6
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Roy_H on 01/08/2014 12:31 am
...(which won't really be a huge problem long-term, since they probably will have 4 pads available by 2016... giving them at least a 24 flight per year possible launch rate... though I won't be surprised if they end up shutting down a site).

Well, I assume the 4 sites will be Canaveral LC39a, LC40, Vandenberg, and Brownsville. They need at least one pad at each location, so the only one that could be shutting down would be Canaveral LC40. I am not clear on why they need LC39, is it for Falcon Heavy or future Raptor based rocket? Would seem that the only reason to shut down LC40 would be if they decided to discontinue F9, unlikely for several years.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: oiorionsbelt on 01/08/2014 12:45 am
...(which won't really be a huge problem long-term, since they probably will have 4 pads available by 2016... giving them at least a 24 flight per year possible launch rate... though I won't be surprised if they end up shutting down a site).

Well, I assume the 4 sites will be Canaveral LC39a, LC40, Vandenberg, and Brownsville. They need at least one pad at each location, so the only one that could be shutting down would be Canaveral LC40. I am not clear on why they need LC39, is it for Falcon Heavy or future Raptor based rocket? Would seem that the only reason to shut down LC40 would be if they decided to discontinue F9, unlikely for several years.
as far as the Cape goes, I suspect manned launches and FH from 39A, cargo and comsats from SLC 40
Along those lines of thinking, is the current TE at SLC 40 able to be moved to 39A? It appears as though it's built to accommodate FH but now that they have 39A perhaps they'll just launch F9 from SLC 40.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 01/08/2014 01:02 am
Along those lines of thinking, is the current TE at SLC 40 able to be moved to 39A? It appears as though it's built to accommodate FH but now that they have 39A perhaps they'll just launch F9 from SLC 40.

The TE at SLC 40 does not support an FH, significant changes would have to be made.
(Compare images below, top one is SLC 40, bottom is LC 4)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Orbiter on 01/08/2014 01:20 am
I believe SpaceX plans to modify SLC-40's TE for FH, either that or they'll launch out of LC-39A.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 01/08/2014 01:21 am
I believe SpaceX plans to modify SLC-40's TE for FH, either that or they'll launch out of LC-39A.

So you believe that they either will or won't? Quite a stand to take! ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: butters on 01/08/2014 01:59 am
If they do the pad abort at LC-40, then I think they'll manage 8. If they do it elsewhere, maybe 9, but I'll stick with 8.

They really want to spring into high gear, and for the first time in their short history, there's nothing in particular which we'd expect to get in the way of serial operations. They're not waiting on the development of a substantially different rocket. They're not waiting on the construction or modification of a launch site. They aren't dealing with any notable technical anomalies exposed by prior flights, at least not as far as the public is aware. This combination of circumstances is new for SpaceX.

Of course, a launch failure might set them back considerably, but in that case we could be looking at 2 or 3 launches rather than the 6 or 7 which several realistic posters have suggested. I'm not going to bet on a launch failure, so I'm voting on the assumption that all of their launches reach orbit.

I think the pacing item will be the fourth Dragon spacecraft. Their ability to stay reasonably close to schedule depends on those CRS missions hitting their launch windows. I get the sense that their engine and stage lines are more stable and streamlined than their spacecraft production line. I don't think that F9 production, testing, and pad flow will be the limiting factor. They need to prioritize the Dragons, and that's why a few of the commercial launches will slip out of 2014.

I'm also assuming that the transonic abort and FH will slip to 2015. CRS and commercial have to be the top priorities.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: joek on 01/08/2014 02:49 am
I'll go for six:
@ 28 days nominal interval per flight (pad, vehicle & payload processing)
= ~13 flights
@ 42 days actual interval per flight (technical issues & schedule conflict resolution)
= ~8 flights
@ 90 days stand-down from a significant event
= ~6  flights

I hope SpaceX proves that to be pessimistic.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 01/08/2014 04:13 am
They /hoped/ to manage a 3-week turnaround time. And I think it's possibly they may do it in the future. But it will take a while to get there, not overnight.

Robobeat. I was just wondering what the reasoning was to satisfy my curiosity. You referred to 2011 and an interval between Dragon flights. You also said you haven't seen cores and that you don't believe they can sustain a launch rate yet. Additionally, you added an extra month of delays to each flight in their manifest. You seem like the kind of guy who always comes in under budget and early.

You've actually predicted a complete regression and breakdown at SpaceX in which they get worse over time. I guess I was wondering if anyone could describe the mechanism that would cause a huge slowdown in their launch rate besides skepticism. For example, do you have evidence that they aren't producing cores at one a month or faster? Do you know why they would double the period between launches going forward? Do you know of any outstanding technical issues that would take a month or more of delays to fix each launch?

Restart took them a while and Dragon may take a while to upgrade, but the launch vehicle has demonstrated GTO requiring close to maximum performance twice without any major issues right? The envelopes get less interesting and less demanding from here right? So what's the problem?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 01/08/2014 04:30 am
From William on Monday:

Quote
The next scheduled launch for SpaceX is slated for 22 February, with a Falcon 9 v1.1 deploying the next Dragon spacecraft on a Commercial Resupply Services mission to the ISS.

SpaceX aims to follow this with a mission to orbit eight Orbcomm satellites in March and a pair of GTO launches for AsiaSat of China in April and May, before another Dragon mission in early June. Further Dragon launches are planned for September and December.

SpaceX is also believed to be planning a launch with nine Orbcomm satellites before the end of the year, and a mission to deploy an undisclosed payload for Space Systems/Loral. All of these launches are expected to take place from Cape Canaveral.

This would imply a goal of 6 launches by early June as of recently. It also implies a launch rate faster than one a month averaged after CRS-3. Something has clearly changed at SpaceX. They seem to be attempting to recover some of their slips rather than guiding for more.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 01/08/2014 04:32 am
11 cores: 6 launches plus inflight abort and F9R and FH. That's not pessimistic.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: joek on 01/08/2014 04:59 am
They /hoped/ to manage a 3-week turnaround time. And I think it's possibly they may do it in the future. But it will take a while to get there, not overnight.

Robobeat. I was just wondering what the reasoning was to satisfy my curiosity. You referred to 2011 and an interval between Dragon flights. You also said you haven't seen cores and that you don't believe they can sustain a launch rate yet. Additionally, you added an extra month of delays to each flight in their manifest. You seem like the kind of guy who always comes in under budget and early.

You've actually predicted a complete regression and breakdown at SpaceX in which they get worse over time. I guess I was wondering if anyone could describe the mechanism that would cause a huge slowdown in their launch rate besides skepticism. For example, do you have evidence that they aren't producing cores at one a month or faster? Do you know why they would double the period between launches going forward? Do you know of any outstanding technical issues that would take a month or more of delays to fix each launch?

Restart took them a while and Dragon may take a while to upgrade, but the launch vehicle has demonstrated GTO requiring close to maximum performance twice without any major issues right? The envelopes get less interesting and less demanding from here right? So what's the problem?

If I may interject... Based on historical evidence, design issues tend to manifest themselves in early flights (1-4).  SpaceX may be over that hump.  Process issues tend to manifest themselves in later flights (4-8).  SpaceX has not shown they are over that hump, so caution is advised.  Then again, IIRC first successful third flight has historically been ~21 months after first flight, so we may be seeing the exception to the rule.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: spectre9 on 01/08/2014 09:18 am
I think 2014 is going to be the summer of SpaceX. When the weather heats up so will the schedule.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 01/08/2014 09:22 am
I believe SpaceX plans to modify SLC-40's TE for FH, either that or they'll launch out of LC-39A.

My own theory is that the East Coast FH pad will be LC-39A. The modifications to SLC-40 to make it FH-ready would be too extensive and would take it out of service too long for it to be viable. It would be simpler and quicker to just launch all FHs on the East Coast from LC-39. In the long run the Texas launch site might take over non-NASA FH launches.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Seer on 01/08/2014 11:43 pm
On the topic of what might slow Spacex down, I would mention payload delays, range delays - for weather or other reasons, plus manufacturing process issues: malfunctioning components etc.
I voted 4, which is a lot more pessimistic than everybody else. Its comparable to Ariane 5 that only launches 6 to 7 per year and they have been launching for years.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 01/09/2014 01:54 am
Yeah, it seems like the low votes are mostly trying to fit SpaceX to some other company's data points. I don't think n is high enough to fit the future to the past when it comes to the F9's launch systems. Given this, I think the only way to constrain a prediction for 2014 would be to identify and identifiable tangible barriers for them based on the available information specific to them and to 2014. I suppose the answer is that no one can identify a verifiable reason why they can't launch 6 or 8 without referring to an unrelated entity or an unrelated period of history.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jarnis on 01/09/2014 04:56 am
Yeah, it seems like the low votes are mostly trying to fit SpaceX to some other company's data points. I don't think n is high enough to fit the future to the past when it comes to the F9's launch systems. Given this, I think the only way to constrain a prediction for 2014 would be to identify and identifiable tangible barriers for them based on the available information specific to them and to 2014. I suppose the answer is that no one can identify a verifiable reason why they can't launch 6 or 8 without referring to an unrelated entity or an unrelated period of history.

Low votes are counting in the very real possibility that during the next 12 months, something goes badly wrong at least once and such an event can easily stop launches for months (if not year or more) as the issue is investigated and fixed. Depends really on what the ultimate cause for such a mishap is.

The rest assume nothing goes kaboom and SpaceX continues to roll with only near-misses (test of second stage restart failed, one engine out, stuck helium valves... none of them big enough to doom a primary mission)

I still think the optimal doable case is actually 12+ (even if I voted that only half-seriously), but that would require SpaceX to execute flawlessly for the whole year.  Realistic target that accounts for minor delays that almost always happen is probably somewhere in the ballpark of 8-11 launches (as pad abort/in-flight abort do not count, not being orbital launches).

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: QuantumG on 01/09/2014 04:58 am
Low votes are counting in the very real possibility that during the next 12 months, something goes badly wrong and such an event can easily stop launches for months as the issue is investigated and fixed.

Or just that the payloads aren't ready.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jarnis on 01/09/2014 05:01 am
Low votes are counting in the very real possibility that during the next 12 months, something goes badly wrong and such an event can easily stop launches for months as the issue is investigated and fixed.

Or just that the payloads aren't ready.

I was talking more of the votes for 6-7 launches. There would be payloads ready for at least 8-9, no?

(Thaicom, two AsiaSats, two Orbcomm sat piles, 3 dragons, Falcon Heavy would be 9 - with the heavy being the big question mark of the set)

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: aero on 01/09/2014 05:27 am
Does anyone else believe as I do that SpaceX launch bookings will go up dramatically toward the end of the year? (last half)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jarnis on 01/09/2014 05:41 am
Does anyone else believe as I do that SpaceX launch bookings will go up dramatically toward the end of the year? (last half)

I'm sure they will get more bookings over 2014 but those bookings are for future flights 2-3 years from now.

Not sure if any sat waiting for a ride to orbit on one of the competing rockets could make this late switch to SpaceX and still make a 2014 launch if it turns out the number of ready-to-go payloads becomes the limiting factor. Almost certainly not.

2015 on the other hand might see additions if SpaceX (and potential customers) realistically think they can launch them all.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Vultur on 01/09/2014 05:46 am
I voted 7 (orbital... plus pad abort).

I hope to be proven pessimistic, and see Falcon Heavy launch in 2014, but...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: aero on 01/09/2014 06:25 am
Does anyone else believe as I do that SpaceX launch bookings will go up dramatically toward the end of the year? (last half)

I'm sure they will get more bookings over 2014 but those bookings are for future flights 2-3 years from now.

Not sure if any sat waiting for a ride to orbit on one of the competing rockets could make this late switch to SpaceX and still make a 2014 launch if it turns out the number of ready-to-go payloads becomes the limiting factor. Almost certainly not.

2015 on the other hand might see additions if SpaceX (and potential customers) realistically think they can launch them all.

I agree - I was asking about out year bookings. I don't foresee any change in the manifest for 2014 unless there is a satellite that has been sitting around for a long time (Cassoipe comes to mind) waiting for a ride. I don't know of any. Even then it might be hard to fit it into the schedule although October/November looks a little slack.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rockinghorse on 01/09/2014 06:40 am
I don't foresee any change in the manifest for 2014 unless there is a satellite that has been sitting around for a long time (Cassoipe comes to mind) waiting for a ride. I don't know of any. Even then it might be hard to fit it into the schedule although October/November looks a little slack.

SpaceX has 15 rocket launches in their manifest for 2014. It is hard to see how you did come into conclusion that Oct/Nov looks a little slack.

(I voted for 20 launches for 2014, because I assumed that there will come additional launches outside Manifest or that are scheduled for 2015.)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: smoliarm on 01/09/2014 09:42 am
I don't foresee any change in the manifest for 2014 unless there is a satellite that has been sitting around for a long time (Cassoipe comes to mind) waiting for a ride. I don't know of any. Even then it might be hard to fit it into the schedule although October/November looks a little slack.

SpaceX has 15 rocket launches in their manifest for 2014. It is hard to see how you did come into conclusion that Oct/Nov looks a little slack.

(I voted for 20 launches for 2014, because I assumed that there will come additional launches outside Manifest or that are scheduled for 2015.)

Well, you definitely are an optimist :)
Me too, btw -- I voted seven.

Quote
...because I assumed that there will come additional launches outside Manifest...
It does not work this way, it takes 2-3 years to build and test a comsat, and some hundreds of M$, too.
Therefore, payloads does not "come additional", like -- surprise! I'm here! Launch me!!
Check my recent post  (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571.msg1144306#msg1144306) for the list of payloads which have a "ready-to-go in 2014" status.
"Additional" payloads could appear with unicorns only.

Quote
...SpaceX has 15 rocket launches in their manifest for 2014...
So what? In Dec 2012 SpaceX had 8 launches manifested for 2013. They did 3 launches.
What is you ground to suggest different picture for 2014? I see none.

Last year, they did GREAT job: new rocket, new pad and many more other new.
You think it's over? - NO.
They managed to develop "one-core-a-month" manufacturing - YES.
Now - they have to develop "one-core-a-month" technology for testing.
It's not the same thing.
They managed to launch TWO Falcons one month apart -- GREAT.
Now - they have to develop a technology to sustain one-launch-a-month rate.
(I'm not sure about grammar here - "a" in red. Because it must be very reliable technology).

Quote
It is hard to see...
Try harder :)
They did this trick just once - two launches one month apart. And you are sure they can do it ten times in a row - with no glitch, no slip, no failure?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jcc on 01/09/2014 10:21 am
I think there will be internal schedule slips many times during the year. They will try for 2 week turnaround and have to settle for 4 week, and still make at least 10 launches.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rockinghorse on 01/09/2014 11:02 am
It does not work this way, it takes 2-3 years to build and test a comsat, and some hundreds of M$, too.

There is interesting off-topic: comsats are mostly expensive and slow to build, because launch costs are high and there is no possibility for redundancy due to weight limits. And certainly there is no opportunity to replacement satellite if something fails. If SpaceX succeeds with their goal on bringing launch costs down, there is no point to spend hundreds of millions on building and designing a comsat.

It would be interesting to see, what satellites that are scheduled for 2015 are ready in 2014 or they can be made ready in 2014. I would guess that there is at least four 2015 satellites that can be launched in 2014. Also SpaceX may do some test flights considering reusability of upper stage.

I think that SpaceX must ramp up fast their launch rates, because 50 million per launch is unsustainable at low launch rates. Although, Nasa projects are today more important source of revenue for SpaceX than commercial launches.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: macpacheco on 01/09/2014 11:43 am
It does not work this way, it takes 2-3 years to build and test a comsat, and some hundreds of M$, too.

There is interesting off-topic: comsats are mostly expensive and slow to build, because launch costs are high and there is no possibility for redundancy due to weight limits. And certainly there is no opportunity to replacement satellite if something fails. If SpaceX succeeds with their goal on bringing launch costs down, there is no point to spend hundreds of millions on building and designing a comsat.

It would be interesting to see, what satellites that are scheduled for 2015 are ready in 2014 or they can be made ready in 2014. I would guess that there is at least four 2015 satellites that can be launched in 2014. Also SpaceX may do some test flights considering reusability of upper stage.

I think that SpaceX must ramp up fast their launch rates, because 50 million per launch is unsustainable at low launch rates. Although, Nasa projects are today more important source of revenue for SpaceX than commercial launches.

The premise is spot on, but the conclusion is wrong.

The solution is bigger, heavier satellites with triple redundancy made of much cheaper materials.

If you launch two satellites that are relatively fragile and have no redundancy, if something critical fails, you're down to the backup bird (that in itself has zero redundancy).

Specially troublesome is if a satellite fails and its propulsion is unable to kick it into a disposal trajectory.

Consider GPS satellites, very expensive, designed for 7.8 operational life, some are over 20 yrs old, because they have almost everything with triple redundancy and IIA GPS have 4 atomic clocks, many are down to the last atomic clock, last operational bus, last reaction control system, but still operating, the trick is doing that on the cheap.

I could be wrong if no redundancy satellites would cost 1/3 and weigh 1/3, and could be build in 6 months, it might make your premise better than mine.

Sorry for the off topic. The subject is interesting, and have huge effects on SpaceX.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: baldusi on 01/09/2014 01:36 pm
Look at ULA's delays report, look at Arianespace last year manifest. Reliable launch operators are delayed time and again because of payloads, rarely because of the LV. Thus, if SpaceX hits its stride, it is gonna be payload limited. The only advantage that they have is that they have a single rocket that they can swap payloads easily. And they don't have to pair satellites. Secondaries will have worse schedule.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: alex_chris on 01/09/2014 02:00 pm
I voted for 5. I think 5 or 6 are realistic given SpaceX track record and the fact that they already have 1 to go. Anything above 6 is speculation.

Of those 5, I believe there is a high chance that one will be a partial failure or a failure. If that happens, we might only see 3 or 4.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Doesitfloat on 01/09/2014 02:13 pm
I voted 11- it's a prime number.  I like prime numbers

Past years Launches (Completed Missions)

2006-1
2007-1
2008-2
2009-1
2010-2
2012-2
2013-3

See all prime numbers.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Kaputnik on 01/09/2014 02:44 pm
Low votes are counting in the very real possibility that during the next 12 months, something goes badly wrong at least once and such an event can easily stop launches for months

I voted 5 for reasons that are the opposite to what you suggest. I think that if SpaceX continue to be very cautious and take their time, analysing data between each flight, five is reasonable. Schedules never slip to the left. It feels about as pessimistic as it did last year when I voted three, and look how that turned out.
Personally I can't help thinking that if SpaceX do push on to 6+ flights there is a far higher chance of their first big F9 or Dragon failure.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: jfallen79 on 01/09/2014 03:05 pm

The last two sats are listed as due in 1Q 2015 on the sites of their manufacturers, they are not going to fly in 2014...

Are you sure this isn't referring to 1Q of FY15, which is 1 Oct - 31 Dec 14?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: brihath on 01/09/2014 03:07 pm
I voted for seven.  I think their infrastructure is sized to handle that pace and with two successful launches of their new Falcon 9 version, they should be getting the bugs worked out.  This pace should give them time to investigate and correct any minor issues that crop up.  If a major problem should occur, all bets are off.

The major pressure I see on the schedule is the need to support the revenue stream that comes from successful launches and building enough capability that customers continue to sign up.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: smoliarm on 01/09/2014 04:07 pm
It does not work this way, it takes 2-3 years to build and test a comsat, and some hundreds of M$, too.

...
 comsats are mostly expensive and slow to build, because launch costs are high and there is no possibility for redundancy due to weight limits...
No. Comsats are expensive and slow to build because ... they are expensive and slow to build.
And it doesn't matter - why.
But -- just because they are expensive and slow to build -- they are not gonna pop up like mushrooms in warm and rainy summer.

Quote
...
I would guess that there is at least four 2015 satellites that can be launched in 2014.
...
Sounds like a bet for me :)
How about this:
For each of "2015" satellites launched by SpaceX in 2014 -- I send you a bottle of Stolichnaya Vodka.
(Actually, here counts ANY primary payload which is NOT currently in the manifest for 2014).
And you - you send me a bottle of Finlandia Vodka - for any payload from their current list - which did not get launched by the end of the year (marked by UTC or EST. or even PST, I'm not picky)
So, what do you say?

Below is the current SpaceX manifest for your convenience (and the Stolichnaya seal)

1.  Thaicom 6                           <-- This one's done. 14 to go :)
2.  CRS – Flight 3
3.  ORBCOMM (first batch)
4.  ORBCOMM (second batch)
5.  Asiasat 6 / Thaicom 7
6.  Asiasat 8
7.  CRS – Flight 4
8.  CRS – Flight 5
9.  CRS – Flight 6
10.Falcon Heavy Demo Flight
11.TBD [Space Systems/Loral]
12.TurkmenSat
13.DSCOVR (USAF)
14.CONAE (Argentina)
15.Satmex 7 / ABS 3A

(http://www.threedollarbillcinema.org/06/logos/StoliBeReal_logo_color.jpg)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: veblen on 01/09/2014 04:20 pm
6. The 4 CRS flights to ISS represent quite a bit of uncertainty due to possible delays. Doubling of launch rate over 2013 seems reasonable.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 01/09/2014 04:27 pm
(I voted for 20 launches for 2014, because I assumed that there will come additional launches outside Manifest or that are scheduled for 2015.)
Pure fantasy. Read from my lips: IT. WILL. NOT. HAPPEN. No miracles exists and Musk is not Second Coming of rocketry, tyvm. Your assumption is wrong.

Try to find in history of world rocketry any launch that slipped to left by significant (more than say two weeks - your assumption requires months or more) amount of time.

And you - you send me a bottle of Finlandia Vodka - for any payload from their current list - which did not get launched by the end of the year (marked by UTC or EST. or even PST, I'm not picky)
This will be a few very easy bottles of Finlandia Vodka. Crafty.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: smoliarm on 01/09/2014 04:35 pm

The last two sats are listed as due in 1Q 2015 on the sites of their manufacturers, they are not going to fly in 2014...

Are you sure this isn't referring to 1Q of FY15, which is 1 Oct - 31 Dec 14?

Yes. With SAOCOM the delay is actually longer - Sept.2015 (http://database.eohandbook.com/database/agencysummary.aspx?agencyID=24)

Do not have the link at hand for Boeing sats, but I recall it was Jan-2015.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 01/10/2014 02:51 am
7-8 Would be awesome..  now number 11 would bring it back home.

re: 11.TBD [Space Systems/Loral]
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: spectre9 on 01/10/2014 03:34 am
Falcon 9 is waiting for payloads?

I thought the payloads have been waiting on Falcon 9 for years now.

In the short term surely the payloads not being ready is of no concern?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 01/10/2014 03:40 am
(http://www.threedollarbillcinema.org/06/logos/StoliBeReal_logo_color.jpg)

Exactly...  2015 launches going early??? "be real"

I'm a huge fan, and a major kool aid drinker (never denied it)  but no way no how would I take that bet. It will be a while before things start pulling to the left on a regular basis. If ever. (most people would say never)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: guckyfan on 01/10/2014 08:58 am
Falcon 9 is waiting for payloads?

I thought the payloads have been waiting on Falcon 9 for years now.

That's the past.

In the short term surely the payloads not being ready is of no concern?

Depends how you define short term. I think you are right until at least 39A is ready and maybe the commercial location. But after that there will be Falcons waiting for payloads. If you have a satellite in stock you may launch it in 3 months for a small express premium.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: baldusi on 01/10/2014 10:29 am
Yes. With SAOCOM the delay is actually longer - Sept.2015 (http://database.eohandbook.com/database/agencysummary.aspx?agencyID=24).
And Invap is doing both Arsat-2 AND SAOCOM-1A. Since both are expected to launch on September 2015, and I don't think they can do two launch capaigns together, I would even take that date with a grain of salt.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 01/10/2014 10:59 am
Yes. With SAOCOM the delay is actually longer - Sept.2015 (http://database.eohandbook.com/database/agencysummary.aspx?agencyID=24).
And Invap is doing both Arsat-2 AND SAOCOM-1A. Since both are expected to launch on September 2015, and I don't think they can do two launch capaigns together, I would even take that date with a grain of salt.

I don't see 15 missions on 2014.. even if Spacex could do it.. the spacecraft are not there.. and forget 4 to the ISS in 2014. Orbital may get in three, but SPX will have at max 2 .. I cannot see the bureaucracy of the ISS handle the traffic volume of more that 5 max a year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rockinghorse on 01/10/2014 02:52 pm
(I voted for 20 launches for 2014, because I assumed that there will come additional launches outside Manifest or that are scheduled for 2015.)
Pure fantasy. Read from my lips: IT. WILL. NOT. HAPPEN.

20 launches assumed, that SpaceX has already achieved rapid reusability with Falcon 9 v.1.1 rocket.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: intrepidpursuit on 01/10/2014 03:06 pm
(I voted for 20 launches for 2014, because I assumed that there will come additional launches outside Manifest or that are scheduled for 2015.)
Pure fantasy. Read from my lips: IT. WILL. NOT. HAPPEN.

20 launches assumed, that SpaceX has already achieved rapid reusability with Falcon 9 v.1.1 rocket.

So they will solve reusability, overcome the 30 day turn around at SLC-40, and start launching rockets without payloads just for fun before the end of 2014? Are you a betting man? Because I'd take that bet with a year's salary.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 01/10/2014 03:16 pm
20 launches assumed, that SpaceX has already achieved rapid reusability with Falcon 9 v.1.1 rocket.
This does not have anything to do with reusability, and everything to do with payloads, or more precisely tendency of slips in schedules to happen only in one direction - to right.

I already asked you about examples of payloads getting launched significantly earlier than they were supposed to. I even said you are free to find anything from history, worldwide, from any country. Care to answer?

And BTW I think first launch of F9 with already used first stage will happen at earliest in 2016, not 14. First few recovered stages obviously will not be reused, just analyzed to last screw. After that these stages will end up as SpaceX lawn decoration or something. In fact, I expect first launch like that to break record of users at once on this very forum.

I will say it again: your assumptions are impossible and out of touch with reality. You excercise as much wishful thinking as someone voting for one launch in 2014. That's all, I do not see any point in further discussion.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: guckyfan on 01/10/2014 04:44 pm

And BTW I think first launch of F9 with already used first stage will happen at earliest in 2016, not 14. First few recovered stages obviously will not be reused, just analyzed to last screw. After that these stages will end up as SpaceX lawn decoration or something. In fact, I expect first launch like that to break record of users at once on this very forum.

I think that's on the cautios side. Assume they get landing permit, optimistic but Elon Musk certainly hoped for permit by the time of SpX-3. Assume that the legs are not ready by SpX-3 but the next flight. Assume the first one fails but the next ones are successful. That would leave them with no less than 4 stages to analyze this year, probably more.

The last one landed this year can fly next year again, why not? It's optimistic but not excessively so.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: baldusi on 01/10/2014 07:10 pm
The last one landed this year can fly next year again, why not? It's optimistic but not excessively so.
Let's look at the Dragon case. First recovery will be disassembled and analyzed ad infinitum. After that, it will be reassembled and displayed on some corporate location until they need the tax break of donating it to some museum.
Then, they'll need a few more stages and the same analysis work so they can understand what was pure luck and what is the result of ops.
Once they get that, and after doing slight changes to the reentry ops to actually minimize the structural stresses. Only then they'll have to requalify one of the returned stages for flight.
All these takes time, they find bugs, have to develop solutions or mitigations, and a lot of analysis. Rember that this is on a fully operational system. Look at the Dragon. They've got four back and decided to do some major mods even before attempting reuse (might be reusing some parts, like DragonEye).
I'd not be surprised of a Falcon 9 v1.2 for reuse.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: jeff.findley on 01/10/2014 08:51 pm
And BTW I think first launch of F9 with already used first stage will happen at earliest in 2016, not 14. First few recovered stages obviously will not be reused, just analyzed to last screw. After that these stages will end up as SpaceX lawn decoration or something. In fact, I expect first launch like that to break record of users at once on this very forum.

What you're describing sounds like destructive analysis of the recovered stage.  Please note that if this were done, it would not prove that the stage could have been reused.  In other words, I'd expect at least a test flight of one of the "first few recovered stages" to prove that it is, indeed, reusable.  In fact, I'd almost expect such a test flight to happen as soon as possible, otherwise some may start suspecting it is more "refurbish-able" (a.k.a. space shuttle)  than "reusable" (DC-X).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Arb on 01/10/2014 10:49 pm
And BTW I think first launch of F9 with already used first stage will happen at earliest in 2016, not 14. First few recovered stages obviously will not be reused, just analyzed to last screw. After that these stages will end up as SpaceX lawn decoration or something. In fact, I expect first launch like that to break record of users at once on this very forum.

What you're describing sounds like destructive analysis of the recovered stage.  Please note that if this were done, it would not prove that the stage could have been reused.  In other words, I'd expect at least a test flight of one of the "first few recovered stages" to prove that it is, indeed, reusable.  In fact, I'd almost expect such a test flight to happen as soon as possible, otherwise some may start suspecting it is more "refurbish-able" (a.k.a. space shuttle)  than "reusable" (DC-X).

The in-flight abort might be their first good opportunity to do that. Could be why they've gone a bit vague on when it will happen.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 01/10/2014 10:59 pm

The in-flight abort might be their first good opportunity to do that. Could be why they've gone a bit vague on when it will happen.

Or take three of them and make a heavy .. a few more interfaces/ plumbing .. new avionics and off you go ..on launch, if drop and engine or two there would be 27-26 to take up the load...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rickl on 01/10/2014 10:59 pm
The in-flight abort might be their first good opportunity to do that. Could be why they've gone a bit vague on when it will happen.



I've had the same thought.  That would be a great opportunity to try re-flying a stage for the first time.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Owlon on 01/10/2014 11:00 pm
(I voted for 20 launches for 2014, because I assumed that there will come additional launches outside Manifest or that are scheduled for 2015.)
Pure fantasy. Read from my lips: IT. WILL. NOT. HAPPEN.

20 launches assumed, that SpaceX has already achieved rapid reusability with Falcon 9 v.1.1 rocket.

I would like to point out what Elon said this during the post-Cassiope press conference:

Quote from: Elon Musk
"In terms when we actually re-fly the stage, it's going to depend on what condition the stage is in and obviously getting customers comfortable with that. So it's difficult to say when would actually re-fly it. If things go super well then we would be able to re-fly a Falcon 9 stage before the end of next year and that's our aspiration."

So, things going super-well means reuse before the end of the year. This is the most recent news we have on reusability timetables. No mention of anything about reusing the second stage yet.

Conclusion: No rapid reusability in 2014. Best care scenario is they ramp up the flight rate with new vehicles this year and start reusing first stages in earnest in 2015, with second stage return experiments most likely starting in 2015 or later. I think knowledgeable people on this forum have made a very good case that perfect performance on SpaceX's side would give them about 12 launches; even if SpaceX is ready to launch every payload on their manifest on time, a few of the payloads have already slipped into 2015 on the manufacturing/delivery side.

Disclaimer: I voted 8 flights this year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: JBF on 01/10/2014 11:21 pm
And BTW I think first launch of F9 with already used first stage will happen at earliest in 2016, not 14. First few recovered stages obviously will not be reused, just analyzed to last screw. After that these stages will end up as SpaceX lawn decoration or something. In fact, I expect first launch like that to break record of users at once on this very forum.

What you're describing sounds like destructive analysis of the recovered stage.  Please note that if this were done, it would not prove that the stage could have been reused.  In other words, I'd expect at least a test flight of one of the "first few recovered stages" to prove that it is, indeed, reusable.  In fact, I'd almost expect such a test flight to happen as soon as possible, otherwise some may start suspecting it is more "refurbish-able" (a.k.a. space shuttle)  than "reusable" (DC-X).

The in-flight abort might be their first good opportunity to do that. Could be why they've gone a bit vague on when it will happen.

I doubt the first stage will be in any condition to do anything after the abort.  Remember in an abort the first stage engines are shut off then the capsule will launch itself away from the first stage. I'd be willing to bet the first stage will be tumbling wildly if not severely damaged when the capsule leaves.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 01/10/2014 11:22 pm
And BTW I think first launch of F9 with already used first stage will happen at earliest in 2016, not 14. First few recovered stages obviously will not be reused, just analyzed to last screw. After that these stages will end up as SpaceX lawn decoration or something. In fact, I expect first launch like that to break record of users at once on this very forum.

What you're describing sounds like destructive analysis of the recovered stage.  Please note that if this were done, it would not prove that the stage could have been reused.  In other words, I'd expect at least a test flight of one of the "first few recovered stages" to prove that it is, indeed, reusable.  In fact, I'd almost expect such a test flight to happen as soon as possible, otherwise some may start suspecting it is more "refurbish-able" (a.k.a. space shuttle)  than "reusable" (DC-X).

The in-flight abort might be their first good opportunity to do that. Could be why they've gone a bit vague on when it will happen.

I doubt the first stage will be in any condition to do anything after the abort.  Remember in an abort the first stage engines are shut off then the capsule will launch itself away from the first stage. I'd be willing to bet the first stage will be tumbling wildly if not severely damaged when the capsule leaves.

I think they mean use of a second hand first stage for the test
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: guckyfan on 01/11/2014 07:49 am
The in-flight abort might be their first good opportunity to do that. Could be why they've gone a bit vague on when it will happen.

I doubt the first stage will be in any condition to do anything after the abort.  Remember in an abort the first stage engines are shut off then the capsule will launch itself away from the first stage. I'd be willing to bet the first stage will be tumbling wildly if not severely damaged when the capsule leaves.

I think they mean use of a second hand first stage for the test

I doubt that they will use that important test for their first reuse flight. They will do at least one or two testflights without carrying anything valuable.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jarnis on 01/11/2014 08:26 am
Still could happen if the Max-Q abort shifts a bit to the right and they start getting stages back in, say, Q3.

That is even somewhat pessimist... the optimists say that next launch (CRS-3) will land a stage on dry land. Personally I think they will need at least 2 additional "practice runs" first, before an used stage is sitting on land, intact.

After those couple of tests that will end up in the drink, first recovered one probably will go to analysis/lawn ornament/museum.

Second one they'll probably relaunch as a test flight of some sort. Perhaps from Vandenberg, as to not mess up with the busy schedule in Florida? No payload or something decisively throwaway and obviously trying to land it again. Naturally this is not in any kind of schedule right now, which makes it happening in 2014 unlikely, but who knows, they may have internally planned for one but kept quiet because doing this requires getting the landing bit working first. Or they might not and instead just abuse the recovered stage in a test stand for a bunch more and then stamp "still works, use for a real payload" on it.

In the somewhat unlikely event that all this goes perfectly, a recovered stage might then carry a "real" payload. Max-Q abort test I count as "real" payload.

Heck, who knows, they may already have sat deals in the books that have clauses that allow reused stages (with perhaps price reduction attached)? Most certainly not most of them, but there might be one or two where it is penned in as a possibility.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: jongoff on 01/11/2014 06:51 pm
That is even somewhat pessimist... the optimists say that next launch (CRS-3) will land a stage on dry land. Personally I think they will need at least 2 additional "practice runs" first, before an used stage is sitting on land, intact.

I'd be a lot more inclined to believe that CRS-3 would demonstrated returning the first stage to dry land if they were farther into their Grasshopper/Grasshopper-2 flight testing program. Honestly, I think they'll be doing awesome if they pull off a first stage RTLS by the end of 2014. I think that would be amazing and revolutionary enough for me.

~Jon
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 01/11/2014 07:17 pm
What you're describing sounds like destructive analysis of the recovered stage.  Please note that if this were done, it would not prove that the stage could have been reused.  In other words, I'd expect at least a test flight of one of the "first few recovered stages" to prove that it is, indeed, reusable.
Of course, I expect at least one test flight too (like when introducing new rocket). But analysis will be very helpful to check predictions vs reality, level of wear, what is/isn't damaged, what is needed to be changed/fixed etc.

My prediction for 2016 as date of first launch of already used stage is optimistic variant. In pesimistic variant there will be needed changes to stage that will force creating  F9 1.2. This will push actual reuse to 2018. In any case, recovery of second stage will be deferred (if it is not already) to next generation LV - meaning 2020+.

The in-flight abort might be their first good opportunity to do that. [test of used stage]
Even assuming we recovered stages in sufficient quantity to have spare one after all analysis before abort test (extremely doubtful), still NOPE. Too much rides on this abort test to introduce big possible point of failure. Same for "yay lets use recovered stages for FH" nonsense (tip: side boosters for FH are different than standard F9 stage - in other words you can reuse only FH stages for next FH).

So, things going super-well means reuse before the end of the year.
Things never ever go "super well", tyvm. Stage landing in one piece on land in 2014 would be great and historic achievment. It is enough for this year.

Heck, who knows, they may already have sat deals in the books that have clauses that allow reused stages (with perhaps price reduction attached)?
While it is possible, I would be very surprised if any one of them would agree to be first guinea pig. In other words, they would have in clause condition "at least x successful launches with already used stage". That means test flight, as was said on beginning of this post.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Barrie on 01/11/2014 07:45 pm
And BTW I think first launch of F9 with already used first stage will happen at earliest in 2016, not 14. First few recovered stages obviously will not be reused, just analyzed to last screw. After that these stages will end up as SpaceX lawn decoration or something. In fact, I expect first launch like that to break record of users at once on this very forum.

What you're describing sounds like destructive analysis of the recovered stage.  Please note that if this were done, it would not prove that the stage could have been reused.  In other words, I'd expect at least a test flight of one of the "first few recovered stages" to prove that it is, indeed, reusable.  In fact, I'd almost expect such a test flight to happen as soon as possible, otherwise some may start suspecting it is more "refurbish-able" (a.k.a. space shuttle)  than "reusable" (DC-X).
I suggest a cost-effective approach in the event of a surprise early 1st-stage landing is:
Do the most detailed inspection you can do without a total strip-down, then if no show-stoppers are found, put it on the test stand.  Starting with the shortest burn possible, do tentatively longer burns until you see some anomalous data.  Then you do whatever it takes to understand the anomaly.

[edit] realised this is off-topic, sorry...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 01/11/2014 07:57 pm
That is even somewhat pessimist... the optimists say that next launch (CRS-3) will land a stage on dry land. Personally I think they will need at least 2 additional "practice runs" first, before an used stage is sitting on land, intact.

I'd be a lot more inclined to believe that CRS-3 would demonstrated returning the first stage to dry land if they were farther into their Grasshopper/Grasshopper-2 flight testing program. Honestly, I think they'll be doing awesome if they pull off a first stage RTLS by the end of 2014. I think that would be amazing and revolutionary enough for me.

~Jon

Would they need to file a flight plan for the stage/vehicle to RTLS? i.e would it be public before the event?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: jongoff on 01/11/2014 08:05 pm
That is even somewhat pessimist... the optimists say that next launch (CRS-3) will land a stage on dry land. Personally I think they will need at least 2 additional "practice runs" first, before an used stage is sitting on land, intact.

I'd be a lot more inclined to believe that CRS-3 would demonstrated returning the first stage to dry land if they were farther into their Grasshopper/Grasshopper-2 flight testing program. Honestly, I think they'll be doing awesome if they pull off a first stage RTLS by the end of 2014. I think that would be amazing and revolutionary enough for me.

~Jon

Would they need to file a flight plan for the stage/vehicle to RTLS? i.e would it be public before the event?

It would have to be in their FAA launch license, but I can't remember how much of that gets published. I'm not 100% positive, but there may be some launch site license work that would need to be done too--if that's the case there would be an EIS that would need to be done first, I think.

I'd be surprised (no pun intended) if they could pull off demonstrating an RTLS maneuver in a way that didn't give away in advance the fact that they were trying.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if they put legs on CRS-3 just to test its impact on reducing the stage roll issue they ran into on Cassiope (IIRC). So they might put legs on it even if they're intending to do a water splashdown.

~Jon
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: mlindner on 01/11/2014 08:20 pm
Voted 10. 11 flights on US launchers page, possibility of at least one slipping to 2015 likely.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 01/11/2014 08:41 pm
Thank you mlindner for for reminding us that THIS IS A POLL THREAD about orbital launches in 2014.

There are plenty of threads to discuss the issue of retrieving and reusing first stages and the Max-Q LAS flight.

As it is, voting is slowing down.  I may post my evaluation tomorrow.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: QuantumG on 01/11/2014 09:09 pm
So they might put legs on it even if they're intending to do a water splashdown.

That's what Elon said, yeah.

Remotely more on-topic: they do have three CRS flights scheduled for 2014, and I wouldn't be surprised if they started making recovery attempts on non-CRS flights too, so subtract one from whatever you voted, for an estimates of how many recovery attempts they'll be making in 2014!

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: yg1968 on 01/11/2014 09:16 pm
So they might put legs on it even if they're intending to do a water splashdown.

That's what Elon said, yeah.

Remotely more on-topic: they do have three CRS flights scheduled for 2014, and I wouldn't be surprised if they started making recovery attempts on non-CRS flights too, so subtract one from whatever you voted, for an estimates of how many recovery attempts they'll be making in 2014!

Musk said that they would attempt recovery on pretty much all flights after Thaicom-6 (not just CRS flights).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: joek on 01/11/2014 09:19 pm
Post removed; started a new thread to discuss: First legs and landing - speculation (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33788.0)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 01/11/2014 09:33 pm
time for a legs thread
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Owlon on 01/11/2014 10:27 pm
So, things going super-well means reuse before the end of the year.
Things never ever go "super well", tyvm. Stage landing in one piece on land in 2014 would be great and historic achievment. It is enough for this year.

Precisely. My point was that rockinghorse's 20 launches vote (which he said depends on rapid reusability happening in 2014) was unrealistic because even in SpaceX's own best case scenario that won't happen this year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 01/14/2014 12:22 am
So, things going super-well means reuse before the end of the year.
Things never ever go "super well", tyvm. Stage landing in one piece on land in 2014 would be great and historic achievment. It is enough for this year.

Precisely. My point was that rockinghorse's 20 launches vote (which he said depends on rapid reusability happening in 2014) was unrealistic because even in SpaceX's own best case scenario that won't happen this year.

Most statisticians will ignore or handle outliers such that results are not skewed.  There's usually some totally unrealistic results in any poll.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: TheWhiteZombie on 01/14/2014 01:16 am
While I would love to believe they could do 12+, there just isn't a chance in hell of that happening. However, being an optimist and a Spacex amazing people, here's to hoping for no major malfunctions! I'm voting for 10, but I can easily see it dropping as low as 8.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: neoforce on 01/14/2014 01:40 am
Finally voted. 

Used estimate of one full Florida launch every 6 weeks (9) but taking away one for Max Q test gives 8.  I figure the Pad abort can be squeezed in without taking a full up F9 so didn't take one off for that.

While I think FH probably slips till 2015, I'm a space-x amazing people at heart so I'll be optimistic and include it for a total of 9. 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Karloss12 on 01/15/2014 07:17 am
3 flights in 3013 was easy to predict.  There was always going to be delays before or after the first F9 1.1 launch.

Now they are in up ramp launch rate mode, it is quite difficult to predict flights in 2014.

I'm predicting an optimistic nine flights.  But any problems with the vehicle and this could be reduced to 6.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 01/15/2014 08:41 pm
An interesting article:

SpaceX Drives Sharp Increase in Projected Launches at Cape
http://www.spacenews.com/article/launch-report/39110spacex-drives-sharp-increase-in-projected-launches-at-cape
Quote
...
Most of the projected boost in the Cape’s launch business is due to Space Exploration Technologies Corp., which is ramping up its commercial satellite launching services. SpaceX, which launched the Thaicom-6 commercial satellite from the facility Jan. 6., has reservations for an additional 9 launches, with an option for an 10th, according to the Air Force.
...

So that does place an upper limit on the possible CCAFS launches this year from SpaceX's perspective - 11. (if no slips & if the 10th additional option is used)

This probably includes the Max-Q abort test, but I'm not sure if it includes that pad abort test.

Again, they will likely slip some of these, but it is interesting to see what their plans are from the range perspective.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 01/15/2014 09:13 pm
An interesting article:

SpaceX Drives Sharp Increase in Projected Launches at Cape
http://www.spacenews.com/article/launch-report/39110spacex-drives-sharp-increase-in-projected-launches-at-cape (http://www.spacenews.com/article/launch-report/39110spacex-drives-sharp-increase-in-projected-launches-at-cape)
Quote
...
Most of the projected boost in the Cape’s launch business is due to Space Exploration Technologies Corp., which is ramping up its commercial satellite launching services. SpaceX, which launched the Thaicom-6 commercial satellite from the facility Jan. 6., has reservations for an additional 9 launches, with an option for an 10th, according to the Air Force.
...

So that does place an upper limit on the possible CCAFS launches this year from SpaceX's perspective - 11. (if no slips & if the 10th additional option is used)

This probably includes the Max-Q abort test, but I'm not sure if it includes that pad abort test.

Again, they will likely slip some of these, but it is interesting to see what their plans are from the range perspective.
trying to alter the poll huh?  :-[ :-\
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Space OurSoul on 01/15/2014 09:58 pm
In a move reminiscent of Arthur Dent's calculation of his prehistoric cave site:

I looked at the wayback machine to see SpaceX's manifest for 2013 as of late 2012: 7.
Today's manifest for 2014: 14.

Three actual launches in 2013, but I'll arbitrarily call it 3.5 cuz it was so close and so it makes the math easy:

Prediction for '14 = 14 * ( 3.5 /7 ) = 7.

(Yes, I'm ignoring h/w at the pad vs. launch date, and not really counting Thaicomm properly. In fact I'm ignoring all common sense, logic or reasoned thought, but hey my method is _quantitative_ :-) )



Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: smoliarm on 01/16/2014 06:32 am
In a move reminiscent of Arthur Dent's calculation of his prehistoric cave site:

I looked at the wayback machine to see SpaceX's manifest for 2013 as of late 2012: 7.
Today's manifest for 2014: 14.

Three actual launches in 2013, but I'll arbitrarily call it 3.5 cuz it was so close and so it makes the math easy:

Prediction for '14 = 14 * ( 3.5 /7 ) = 7.

(Yes, I'm ignoring h/w at the pad vs. launch date, and not really counting Thaicomm properly. In fact I'm ignoring all common sense, logic or reasoned thought, but hey my method is _quantitative_ :-) )

>>I'm ignoring all common sense...
Well, if some quantitative approach turns out to be working, then they discover common sense hidden inside that approach - very soon :) And the logic - just as well...

I suggest alternative (and independent) quantitative approach:
Last year NSF poll on # SpaceX flights had 274 voters;
This time the poll grew to 476 voters, by closing time it's going to be close to 500.
Using your estimate for last year's #,
Prediction for '14 = 3.5 * 500 / 274 = 6.4 flights
which is in reasonable agreement with your result :)

As to common sense behind my formula, let's see if anybody disagree with this:
**Public attention is directly proportional to the scale of event**
;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 01/16/2014 03:00 pm
Because of DSCOVR funding do not expect DSCOVR to be available for launch in 2014.

This makes the maximum number of payloads available for launching in 2014 to 12. I don't think all of them will make it, especially the NASA CRS 6 flight. Commercial payloads have a high likelihood of meeting schedules.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 01/17/2014 01:51 am
In a move reminiscent of Arthur Dent's calculation of his prehistoric cave site:

I looked at the wayback machine to see SpaceX's manifest for 2013 as of late 2012: 7.
Today's manifest for 2014: 14.

Three actual launches in 2013, but I'll arbitrarily call it 3.5 cuz it was so close and so it makes the math easy:

Prediction for '14 = 14 * ( 3.5 /7 ) = 7.

(Yes, I'm ignoring h/w at the pad vs. launch date, and not really counting Thaicomm properly. In fact I'm ignoring all common sense, logic or reasoned thought, but hey my method is _quantitative_ :-) )

>>I'm ignoring all common sense...
Well, if some quantitative approach turns out to be working, then they discover common sense hidden inside that approach - very soon :) And the logic - just as well...

I suggest alternative (and independent) quantitative approach:
Last year NSF poll on # SpaceX flights had 274 voters;
This time the poll grew to 476 voters, by closing time it's going to be close to 500.
Using your estimate for last year's #,
Prediction for '14 = 3.5 * 500 / 274 = 6.4 flights
which is in reasonable agreement with your result :)

As to common sense behind my formula, let's see if anybody disagree with this:
**Public attention is directly proportional to the scale of event**
;)

My logic was close.. and produces a close agreement to the above.

 I wanted to cover three key things:

* 2 pads =2
* Version for Falcon = 1.1
* and a round number to represent the 2nd stage x section shape =  0

Then did the Math 2 x 1.1 x 0 with the net result of zero

knowing that there would be one sure launch.. something was out... so with some deep thinking I resolved the problem, I was close..
 the second stage x section shape is round nothing better in numbers  represents  round more than 3.1415926 ..
so  math again

 2 x 1.1 x 3.1415926 = 6.9

so 7.. its so easy..
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rickl on 01/17/2014 02:04 am
8 has been way out in front for a long time, but 7 is starting to creep up.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 01/17/2014 02:08 am
8 has been way out in front for a long time, but 7 is starting to creep up.

I had calculated 8 .. but then realized I had added HST (sales tax) that does not apply in Florida under HST.. so 7
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Elvis in Space on 01/17/2014 02:30 am
I guessed. That hasn't worked for the lottery yet either but with only a single digit to pick my chances are a lot better, right?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 01/17/2014 06:06 am
8 has been way out in front for a long time, but 7 is starting to creep up.

"Engineering is done with numbers. Everything else is opinion."
Your statement is not really true.  Just wait a few days for my numeric evaluation.
Hint: The "center of mass" has been around 7 & 3/4 since day two of the poll, and it hasn't really moved since.
People have started voting preferentially for odd numbers, after they heard that people were preferentially voting for even numbers.  It hasn't changed the consensus.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: smoliarm on 01/17/2014 07:07 am
8 has been way out in front for a long time, but 7 is starting to creep up.

"Engineering is done with numbers. Everything else is opinion."
That's not really true.  Just wait a few days for my numeric evaluation.
Hint: The "center of mass" has been around 7 & 3/4 since day two of the poll, and it hasn't really moved since.
People have started voting preferentially for odd numbers, after they heard that people were preferentially voting for even numbers.  It hasn't changed the consensus.

No, this is not what I see:
Early voters (Dec 20 - Dec 31) had some 100+ excess of even votes;
Late voters (Jan 1 - present) have equal numbers for even & odd votes.

>>The "center of mass" has been around 7 & 3/4 since day two of the poll
To be exact, it was 7.90 ± 0.05 since Dec 23.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: vapour_nudge on 01/17/2014 07:15 am
8 has been way out in front for a long time, but 7 is starting to creep up.

"Engineering is done with numbers. Everything else is opinion."
Your statement is not really true.  Just wait a few days for my numeric evaluation.
Hint: The "center of mass" has been around 7 & 3/4 since day two of the poll, and it hasn't really moved since.
People have started voting preferentially for odd numbers, after they heard that people were preferentially voting for even numbers.  It hasn't changed the consensus.

Does this mean the 8th launch can successfully deliver 3 sats to orbit and fail with the 4th sat? ;-)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Tass on 01/17/2014 07:25 am
8 has been way out in front for a long time, but 7 is starting to creep up.

"Engineering is done with numbers. Everything else is opinion."
Your statement is not really true.  Just wait a few days for my numeric evaluation.
Hint: The "center of mass" has been around 7 & 3/4 since day two of the poll, and it hasn't really moved since.
People have started voting preferentially for odd numbers, after they heard that people were preferentially voting for even numbers.  It hasn't changed the consensus.

Does this mean the 8th launch can successfully deliver 3 sats to orbit and fail with the 4th sat? ;-)

If 2013 is anything to go by, it means the eight flight will barely slip to 2015.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jarnis on 01/17/2014 07:53 am
Based on the fact that SpaceX asked Florida range for 9 with option for 10th, I'd say those are the bets that say "nothing go wrong". You can probably also add +1 to that for Falcon Heavy from Vandenberg. So 10-11 in 2014.

7-8 would mean slips from what they clearly are aiming for internally. My call from this; the voters of this poll are a conservative bunch, yet based on past performance there is some logic to that. Space is hard and slips happen even when nothing goes badly wrong - I'd guess in many cases slips happen because something needs to be fixed so one can be sure nothing goes badly wrong.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 01/17/2014 10:55 am
Based on the fact that SpaceX asked Florida range for 9 with option for 10th, I'd say those are the bets that say "nothing go wrong". You can probably also add +1 to that for Falcon Heavy from Vandenberg. So 10-11 in 2014.

7-8 would mean slips from what they clearly are aiming for internally. My call from this; the voters of this poll are a conservative bunch, yet based on past performance there is some logic to that. Space is hard and slips happen even when nothing goes badly wrong - I'd guess in many cases slips happen because something needs to be fixed so one can be sure nothing goes badly wrong.



In spaceflight.. what could go wrong.. :)  There are unforeseen delays.. beta angles, spacecraft not ready, range issues and weather to name just a few that must not happen for 11 launches to happen(, 2014 will need to be extended). the next launch is 22 Feb, in the meantime Orbital needs to come home, and ULA has to do their thing, and the range needs to reconfig etc.. i.e this date cannot move to the right without a follow - on effect..
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Joffan on 01/17/2014 12:40 pm
(2014 will need to be extended)

Hadn't you heard? Musk has announced that 2014 will run until April 2015.  :D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 01/17/2014 12:54 pm

>>The "center of mass" has been around 7 & 3/4 since day two of the poll
To be exact, it was 7.90 ± 0.05 since Dec 23.
Thanks for the analysis! What weight are you giving the 12+ votes? just 12, or something a bit higher?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: smoliarm on 01/17/2014 01:09 pm

>>The "center of mass" has been around 7 & 3/4 since day two of the poll
To be exact, it was 7.90 ± 0.05 since Dec 23.
Thanks for the analysis! What weight are you giving the 12+ votes? just 12, or something a bit higher?

Yes, just 12.
In other words, I'm ignoring the "+" part ;)

And thanks for your thanks :)
I will post my analyses of the poll as it closes, it's pretty interesting.
Compared to last year, it looks like this time the poll has much higher percent of "well informed voters".
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: smoliarm on 01/17/2014 01:16 pm
(2014 will need to be extended)

Hadn't you heard? Musk has announced that 2014 will run until April 2015.  :D

Yes, but it's for Tesla only.
He can't pull same thing off for SpaceX, because of government customers.
 :(
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 01/17/2014 04:49 pm
8 has been way out in front for a long time, but 7 is starting to creep up.

"Engineering is done with numbers. Everything else is opinion."
That's not really true.  Just wait a few days for my numeric evaluation.
Hint: The "center of mass" has been around 7 & 3/4 since day two of the poll, and it hasn't really moved since.
People have started voting preferentially for odd numbers, after they heard that people were preferentially voting for even numbers.  It hasn't changed the consensus.

No, this is not what I see:
Early voters (Dec 20 - Dec 31) had some 100+ excess of even votes;
Late voters (Jan 1 - present) have equal numbers for even & odd votes.

>>The "center of mass" has been around 7 & 3/4 since day two of the poll
To be exact, it was 7.90 ± 0.05 since Dec 23.

Now that's numerical analysis!
My results are 7.79 ± 0.04 with a standard deviation of 1.93
So the consensus is that they won't get the eighth launch off this year, but they could well get as many as 9 in or as few as 6.
I will post similar graphs, perhaps tomorrow, but on a much coarser scale.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 01/17/2014 04:55 pm

>>The "center of mass" has been around 7 & 3/4 since day two of the poll
To be exact, it was 7.90 ± 0.05 since Dec 23.
Thanks for the analysis! What weight are you giving the 12+ votes? just 12, or something a bit higher?

Yes, just 12.
In other words, I'm ignoring the "+" part ;)

(snip)
Ditto

(Except when I evaluated the numbers in pairs, back when people were avoiding odd numbers.  Then it was 11.5.  It did not change the center of mass or the variance, so I stopped doing that. ;D )
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Silmfeanor on 01/17/2014 06:10 pm
Allright, voted. I'm glad I waited as long as I did, but I don't know if I have computer access the next 2 days.

Voted 8, had trouble choosing between 7 or 8. I think both are very much possible. To achieve something higher would be - of course- very nice, but it would be a surprise for me. I mainly followed earlier arguments in the thread, including payloads, and expect small slips. For me, in the realm of possibility although unlikely is anywhere from 4-10 launches. But I think 8 is about right.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 01/17/2014 10:13 pm
(2014 will need to be extended)

Hadn't you heard? Musk has announced that 2014 will run until April 2015.  :D

Yes, but it's for Tesla only.
He can't pull same thing off for SpaceX, because of government customers.
 :(

My bad, I did not get the memo.. but since your post has the "TSLA' company noted .. and not the "SCTY" company but includes the "SPX"  company  we can safely add 170 days to 2014 but cannot add 75 and since SPX is not listed, zero

that comes out to June 19
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: tigerade on 01/18/2014 02:16 am
Two more days guys... let's make sure everyone that wants to vote gets their votes in.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: InfraNut2 on 01/18/2014 09:12 pm
My vote is 10.

That means I "bet" that SpaceX will become payload-limited by the end of the year, since I think there will be no more than about 9 payloads ready, plus a minor/dummy one(s) for FH. (Edit: The number does not include CRS 6 dragon which is likely to slip into next year for ISS related reasons. EDIT 2 (some hours later): I admit 9+FH also happens to be my guess for the likely number of launches even with more payloads ready so I think the catch-up with the demand will happen around the end of the year and the backlog of ready-to-launch payloads will remain short to none after that).

F9: I think SpaceX nominal processing time improvements will allow this with some margin, so that if all delays are relatively minor, my guess will come through. Payloads are mostly backlogged, so they should not contribute significantly to delays, except for a few weeks delays for CRS dragon ISS related conflicts. The only part where I have veered a bit to the optimistic side is (in my own view) in "betting" there will be no really long delays for regular F9 this year (EDIT 2: but, that that will be betting that Murphys law will only have minor effect this year, and you can never be safe from it coming back to bite you in the backside -- especially in this business. So: some luck required).

FH will have some significant delays: (A) Texas testing delays and on-launchsite delays since it is a new rocket variant, and (B) production of the cores will be in queue behind baclogged F9 so I guess they won't be produced until during summer. I still think it will be launched before the end of the year (barely).

Abort tests: The pad-abort test will be hopefully be set up so that it won't conflict with the launchpad physically, but only a little on the personell side. I guess that because of delays caused by the radical upgrades to dragon, the pad abort test will not launch until october (though I hope for july/august) and that the In-Flight abort test will therefore slip to early next year so it would not interfere.

I voted many days ago, but wanted to give my reasoning here before the end of the poll in the hope that you will find it less uninteresting than average here. ;)

(edits: some clarifications)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: tgshort on 01/19/2014 05:16 am
Going to say 9 .not sure if Im a optimistic space enthusiast or a pessimistic spaceX enthusiast
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: randomly on 01/19/2014 05:22 am
I'm going to approach this scientifically and try to include all relevant factors.

My gut tells me 5 more launches this year, with Thaicom that makes a total of 6.

However last year I guessed a pessimistic 3 launches and sure enough Spacex only managed 3 launches. Clearly my pessimism had a very negative effect on Spacex performance. Therefore to make my contribution toward Spacex's success and humanity's advancement in general I'm going to vote an outlandishly optimistic 12 flights.

Unfortunately I find the Reality Check field radiated by Jim almost totally cancels out my optimism and I'm left with only 7 flights for a guess.

But F9 landing on water is clearly a sign of Elon's potential to walk on water so I pull out the Magical Thinking trump card and add an irrational 2 more flights getting me to a grand total of

9 launches in 2014!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 01/19/2014 05:33 pm
Voted 6. Twice what they did (and what I voted) last year. If I saw a big line-up of all the cores they intend to fly this year, I probably would've voted 7. I just don't see them launching so many rockets without some hiccup (by which I don't mean launch failure, although there's probably a good 25% chance of that happening this year, perhaps not on an orbital flight attempt). I realize that they've become more secretive than they were for the earliest flights of F9, but I still think it will take some time to ramp up to a high launch rate. Still, 6 launches is nothing to sneeze at! Several of those will be Dragons, too (which means more revenue).

They'll be doing lots of stuff with F9R-1 this year, and will try recovery attempts with first stages. They may well be successful! I give it a 50/50 shot. The biggest unknown there is the time frame for getting permission to land the first stage. Plus you got the pad abort and possibly even an in-flight abort by the end of the year (expect that to slip to early 2015, though).

5 launches would be enough for long-term viability, and it's within the realm of possibility. 7 launches would be fantastic and is feasible. Falcon Heavy won't launch, and I expect nothing will likely launch from Vandenberg (although of course it's possible... mostly possible if they launch a F9 from there before the FH demo, but that's unlikely).

These things take time, you guys. Space is hard.TM

ULA is going to launch 15 rockets this year. SpaceX won't eclipse them yet. 2015 is a possibility, though (especially if CST-100 loses most of its funding, since 2 of the 12 ULA launches planned for 2015 are CST-100 related).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 01/20/2014 03:41 am
This is certainly going to be an interesting year.  Will SpaceX be able to up their launch rate such that they can meet their manifest?  History says no but is that a good guide to SpaceX.  Historically they should have had an F9 failure, they should have gone broke, they should have doubled their prices, etc, etc.
Instead it's sort of the opposite hence my gut vote for 8 but really wanting them to meet their manifest with the exception of FH which is really a test launch whereas all the others should be straight out operational.   
Good luck SpaceX. 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: smoliarm on 01/20/2014 08:04 am
Here is the raw data on this poll in dynamics, as voting unfolded.
I thought, before I give my reduction/interpretation, I give the raw data to anybody who wants to play with numbers :)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Avr69XzaQZvMdHVHRFRaX2FpWGNWVXBNbVd4WnV5NlE&usp=sharing
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: meadows.st on 01/20/2014 08:58 am
Here is the raw data on this poll in dynamics, as voting unfolded.
I thought, before I give my reduction/interpretation, I give the raw data to anybody who wants to play with numbers :)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Avr69XzaQZvMdHVHRFRaX2FpWGNWVXBNbVd4WnV5NlE&usp=sharing

Thanks @smoliarm for the data.

I love data visualization so I made a quick chart to visualize the relative voting rates for the most popular options. Two obvious rapid voting rates just before X-mas and then surrounding the Thaicom-6 launch.  Pretty steady rates otherwise.  I did notice that the "12+" group got the majority of their votes in early in the poll period.

FWIW, I voted for 9, hoping that I am being pessimistic. My "math" is something like 42 (days between launches) + Thaicom6 = 9

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AorAkJCyWNPWdEFYMjQ0a2UtZEIxOXV4aEgzWm56LVE&usp=sharing
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: tigerade on 01/20/2014 01:05 pm
Voting is now closed.  Thank you to everyone who participated.  Let's hope for an exciting year for SpaceX!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 01/20/2014 03:09 pm
Thank you Tigerade for running this poll!
Here are my final results.

Within two days of starting the poll, the consensus was around 7.8 launches with a standard deviation of 2.0, and it stayed there.

The date of the Thaicom launch is noted by the distinct symbol.  That launch was followed by a burst of voting.  However the mean and variance values were unaffected.

It is not clear why people waited to vote.  There was no significant evolution of opinion.

In the beginning, people shied away from odd numbers.  To compensate the data was evaluated in pairs.  The results were still the same, within reason.
 
Once people started talking about the voting, going meta instead of discussing the rockets, people started voting with the pack, as evidenced by the slight reduction in variance.  They also preferentially voted odd, as seen by the reduction in the odd-even difference.  (I have no quatititative evaluation of that aspect.)   How about we not do that next year.

Note that my end-of-day time is slightly different from smoliarm's, but it doesn't make any difference.
 
Thanks again to Tigerade and all who participated.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Silmfeanor on 01/20/2014 03:33 pm
The date of the Thaicom launch is noted by the distinct symbol.  That launch was followed by a burst of voting.  However the mean and variance values were unaffected.

It is not clear why people waited to vote.  There was no significant evolution of opinion.
Hindsight is 20/20 - if the launch had failed, they could have had the chance to vote a lower number, and more chance to have a winning vote. It didn't fail, so they voted normally.

I don't see how this is not clear  ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: kch on 01/20/2014 04:09 pm
The date of the Thaicom launch is noted by the distinct symbol.  That launch was followed by a burst of voting.  However the mean and variance values were unaffected.

It is not clear why people waited to vote.  There was no significant evolution of opinion.
Hindsight is 20/20 - if the launch had failed, they could have had the chance to vote a lower number, and more chance to have a winning vote. It didn't fail, so they voted normally.

I don't see how this is not clear  ;)

"Winning vote"?  This is a poll, not a lottery ... *please* tell me you knew that already.   :o
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: StephenB on 01/20/2014 04:14 pm
The date of the Thaicom launch is noted by the distinct symbol.  That launch was followed by a burst of voting.  However the mean and variance values were unaffected.

It is not clear why people waited to vote.  There was no significant evolution of opinion.
Hindsight is 20/20 - if the launch had failed, they could have had the chance to vote a lower number, and more chance to have a winning vote. It didn't fail, so they voted normally.

I don't see how this is not clear  ;)

"Winning vote"?  This is a poll, not a lottery ... *please* tell me you knew that already.   :o

It's a poll, but also a contest to see for fun who gets closest to the final total, and a measure of how good the community as a whole is at spaceflight prognostication.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Silmfeanor on 01/20/2014 04:19 pm
Sorry, should have been "correct" or "accurate". English is not my first language. Hope my point makes sense though.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 01/20/2014 04:37 pm
Sorry, should have been "correct" or "accurate". English is not my first language. Hope my point makes sense though.
Your point is clear but disputed.
The way to get the most accurate prediction is to withhold you vote until December 31.  ;). However that too is beside the point.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lourens on 01/20/2014 08:36 pm
Within two days of starting the poll, the consensus was around 7.8 launches with a standard deviation of 2.0, and it stayed there.
You say standard deviation here, but the graph says variance. I guess variance is correct, looking at the bell curves?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 01/20/2014 09:23 pm
Within two days of starting the poll, the consensus was around 7.8 launches with a standard deviation of 2.0, and it stayed there.
You say standard deviation here, but the graph says variance. I guess variance is correct, looking at the bell curves?

Sorry for the loose terminology.
I believe that these are all standard deviations, as they have the same units as the mean, i.e. number of launches.
According to an explanation easily found on the web, (http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-deviation.html) the variance is "the average of the squared differences from the Mean" which would have units of launches squared.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: smoliarm on 01/21/2014 01:58 pm
Thank you Tigerade for running this poll!
(Yes, it’s a copy-paste from Comga, but a sincere one  :D )

It was fun to follow the poll, and even more fun to analyze the data. Here is the first observation:
Last year the poll attracted 274 voters, while this year the number grew to 494. Therefore, my first scientific prediction is:
If there will be the same pall next year – the number of voters will double again just as well...
(I spare you from detailed reasoning behind this).

On a more serious note: For me, this poll is NOT ABOUT ‘winning’ or ‘hitting the 10’; it is about analyzing the information, placing the confidence limits and, finally, trying to make predictions on scarce data at hand. In the end of the day – it’s all ABOUT LEARNING :)
Even more seriously – I’m quite sure that many voters here take this similar way. See, e.g. posts by randomly (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571.msg1150454#msg1150454), Robotbeat  (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571.msg1150641#msg1150641)or Lars_J. Yes, voters like them comprise significant part of this poll – which I will show with numbers.

Now – to the numbers.
Quote from: Comga
Within two days of starting the poll, the consensus was around 7.8 launches with a standard deviation of 2.0, and it stayed there.
... 
There was no significant evolution of opinion...

That’s not what I see. Within the first two days some 200+ people voted – it’s quite a big chunk. It works as ballast very effectively, making it look like “no significant evolution”. If you want to see evolution, you need to analyze votes by periods separately.

Rule #1 – if the poll is big enough, analyze parts
Figure 1 shows such approach separating the poll into two halves – “Early birds” (Dec 20 – Dec 31) and “Late birds” (Jan 1 – Jan 19). Both sub-polls have almost the same average, but that’s about it, everything else is quite different. Late Votes distribution is perfectly normal, Early Votes distribution is anything but normal.
Also, note the standard deviation:
I work with mass-spectrometers all my life and I assure you, if you get st.dev. down 25% (2.1 -> 1.7) – it means you have signal-to-noise ratio improved by a factor of 1.5 – squarely.

So, here comes Rule #2 – first analyze distribution and variance, before going to averages.
Therefore, let’s take close look at Early Votes. First, note the huge number max votes – 25 votes for “12 flights”, six times more than just 4 votes for “11”. Looks like those 25 guys choose the maximum just because it’s the max (couldn’t come up with any other reasons :) )
Also, Figure 2 shows odd and even quantiles for “early birds” on separate panes, and here compliance with normal distribution is obvious. Only, some 100+ guys preferred even numbers. Don’t ask me – why, no idea. Superstition? May be... Does not matter in my view. What matters – the averages for odd and even quantiles in Early Birds are significantly different – they are apart far beyond confidence limits (Figure 4).
For those who are afraid that separate statistical treatment of odd and even quantiles is invalid here – specifically in this case it is valid because:
(4 + 6 + 8 +10 + 12)/5 = 8
(5 + 7 + 9 + 11)/4 = 8
(If you are still not convinced – try the same trick with the Late Birds)

The bottom line – Early Votes group has some 100+ votes, which are essentially random even numbers (from 6 to 12), and this spoils the group result.

Now, the “Late Birds” group (Fig 3 shows how I put the divider between groups, nothing special, that’s the way spectrometrists separate peaks – divider is closer to the smaller one).

Quote from: Comga
people started voting with the pack, as evidenced by the slight reduction in variance.  They also preferentially voted odd, as seen by the reduction in the odd-even difference.

I can’t agree. With the first sentence, I would explain apparent reduction in variance by ‘random-bizarre’ voters voting early – forming initially scattered cloud, which is easy to improve. Figure 1 shows that late voters stay in pack much better than the early ones. Or, in other words, they do not follow, they define their own pack, but that’s my POV. As for the second statement, Figure 1 shows that there were NO preferred odd votes late in the poll, number of even votes is still higher, but only slightly (even/odd = 1.04). The apparent reduction in “odd-even difference” is simply due to bulk growth of the poll.

As for actual result, I would take Late Votes as a final estimate with its 8.0 average (luckily, this time there will be no questions like "What 3.8 flights mean?? :o ")
StDev = 1.7 means that 70 % significance fells on the three central quantiles only, “7”, “8”, and “9”.

One last thing, (or a guess, to be precise) – the apparent agreement of averages for Early and Late Votes is due to upper voting limit set too close – “12”. If there would be an option for 14 flights – most of these guys who voted 12 would move to 14, some 30+ voted “10” would move to “12” and so on. Trust me, this is how random number picking works :)

BTW, this is a normal rule how they design polls for serious matters – they allow 2-3 more quantiles both ways (up and down) around reasonably expected scatter. They call it “extreme traps”, good example here is the “1” quantile. So, properly designed, this poll should have options all the way up to 16. With such set up, they can easily separate those who choose extremes – just because they are extremes.

That’s it for now. There is some comparison can be done between this year poll and the last one, but I have to go. May be tomorrow :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 01/21/2014 03:34 pm
Y'know... for a post that disagrees with many of my conclusions..... I really like your post, smoliarm, and agree with most of your points.  You have convinced me. ;D

Much of the evolution, such as it is, and particularly the reduction in the spread, could be due to the build-up of "reasonable" votes overwhelming the outliers. Those two votes for one launch were never joined by anyone else voting for less than four.
 
You have a good point that some people may have just picked the maximum option available.  Ditto for the two votes for one launch.  I find it hard to believe that people really thought of those votes as predictions.
 
I do look forward to a similar poll next year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: TripD on 01/21/2014 05:39 pm
Quote
Rule #1 – if the poll is big enough, analyze parts
Using your data, I voted right at the cutoff of early/late voting.  Looking back at the thread I think that the more I read the posts of others, the more serious I thought the poll was.  That being said, perhaps the later voters were merely taking more time to examine data before leaping into the fray.  I know I took it seriously.  It took me the better part of an hour to chase down my fuzzy dice!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 01/21/2014 05:53 pm
I'm surprised people spent so much time analysing the thread before voting. I voted early, read the manifest, and went with my gut - 7.

But that's how I viewed the read... as a way for people to quickly put out their gut feelings. Not a measurement of how many people could be argued into a certain voting range.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: kevin-rf on 01/22/2014 04:25 pm
I'm surprised people spent so much time analysing the thread before voting.
For some people, being right is more important than having fun.  :o

Can't remember what I voted, but I am sure come 12/31 I will remember I voted with a number that is the correct one  ;D

Was it avogadro's number?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 01/22/2014 04:36 pm
I think being right is fun. :)

But anyway, the poll isn't supposed to be about what you /want/ it to be. :) I think many people were confused on that point.

(EDIT: If you look at the poll results, your vote is in bold.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 01/22/2014 07:31 pm
naaaaaah!!! its about participating, being part of the argy-bargy on here and having a go at the wheel of destiny.... being right is just bonus for having spun the wheel....

just my nickel's worth, (don't have penny's anymore  :( )

Gramps
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 01/25/2014 03:48 pm
Looks like a slip to March 01 for spx-3..  i.e. Feb count will be zero
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: PlanetStorm on 01/25/2014 05:25 pm
Looks like a slip to March 01 for spx-3..  i.e. Feb count will be zero

No surprise though. Around the time of the Thiacom 6 launch, Gwynne Shotwell (I think) talked about a two-month hiatus in SpaceX launches in early 2014.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 01/25/2014 05:29 pm
No chance of anyone cutting in front, I guess...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: macpacheco on 01/25/2014 05:43 pm
No chance of anyone cutting in front, I guess...

Interesting question. My thought instead is, what is the chance that by the time SPX3 launches the next F9R is already almost assembled in the Cape.
Then try to compress the interval between launches a little more.
Recall they killed the WDR as a standalone event, and killed the time from rolling the rocket to launch by 12 hrs. I wonder how many additional 1 day compressions they are thinking about on the launch site.

But yet, launching Orbcomm ahead of SPX would be interesting, but is the payload even ready ? And would SpaceX want to risk upsetting NASA if they latter get delayed while the next F9R is being assembled for them ?

There's still a significant learning curve for the SpaceX crew, for instance, this is the first F9R+Dragon mission, and Dragon has been changed a little.

Still far from routine.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: tigerade on 02/05/2014 08:42 pm
Quote
NASA ‏@NASA 30m

Managers have selected Sunday, March 16 as the launch date for the 3rd @SpaceX cargo resupply mission to #ISS. Launch time is ~4:41am ET.


The second SpaceX launch will be in the third month of this year. 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 02/05/2014 09:26 pm
Quote
NASA ‏@NASA 30m

Managers have selected Sunday, March 16 as the launch date for the 3rd @SpaceX cargo resupply mission to #ISS. Launch time is ~4:41am ET.


The second SpaceX launch will be in the third month of this year.

Now to see if the rest for the first half of the year, are pushed to the right one month... My guess is they will...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 02/06/2014 12:39 am
Quote
NASA ‏@NASA 30m

Managers have selected Sunday, March 16 as the launch date for the 3rd @SpaceX cargo resupply mission to #ISS. Launch time is ~4:41am ET.


The second SpaceX launch will be in the third month of this year.

Now to see if the rest for the first half of the year, are pushed to the right one month... My guess is they will...

This launch might have been but the internal SpaceX production schedule wouldn't have been impacted so future launches may proceed according to schedule.  That's an assumption of course as I have no actual data to support it but in defence, why would it?
Cheers. 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 02/06/2014 12:43 am
Quote
NASA ‏@NASA 30m

Managers have selected Sunday, March 16 as the launch date for the 3rd @SpaceX cargo resupply mission to #ISS. Launch time is ~4:41am ET.


The second SpaceX launch will be in the third month of this year.

Now to see if the rest for the first half of the year, are pushed to the right one month... My guess is they will...

This launch might have been but the internal SpaceX production schedule wouldn't have been impacted so future launches may proceed according to schedule.  That's an assumption of course as I have no actual data to support it but in defence, why would it?
Cheers. 

are the not SLA's on the follow on flights.. i.e. fly by X or loose the deal..
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/06/2014 12:55 pm
are the not SLA's on the follow on flights.. i.e. fly by X or loose the deal..

I believe there is a customer deadline for Asiasat; SpaceX may lose the launch if they don't get it off in the first half of 2014.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: john smith 19 on 02/06/2014 01:34 pm
So most people reckon Spacex can manage 8 this year.

Which BTW is just below the 9 that STS managed in 1 year, which is our only actual data point for reflyable launch vehicles.

So with the NASA CRS flight out the way that would leave 7 in 8 1/2 months.

Good point about ending the WDR as a separate item. You do wonder how many other things could be consolidated?

I'm sure their turnaround time will get better. How much better is the question.

It could be better and certainly ULA do better (and maybe Spacex will do better than most peoples expectations) but only time will tell.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: subzero788 on 02/06/2014 01:34 pm
This small slip of CRS-3 is probably not going to have to that much of an impact on the following schedule.


But even small slips like this, if happening for several launches during the course of a year, can add up to significant delays by the years end.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/06/2014 02:24 pm
I think that it's worth noting that the slip of SpX-CRS-3 is mostly due to customer issues rather than problems at SpaceX's end. It's difficult to draw wider conclusions from this.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Kaputnik on 02/06/2014 03:02 pm
I think that it's worth noting that the slip of SpX-CRS-3 is mostly due to customer issues rather than problems at SpaceX's end. It's difficult to draw wider conclusions from this.

One conclusion would be that payload/customer slips are a fact of life. How long was the last Cygnus delayed?
It doesn't matter if SpaceX can technically do 12 flights this year, they won't launch without a payload.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 02/06/2014 04:01 pm
So with the NASA CRS flight out the way that would leave 7 in 8 1/2 months.

I get 9 1/2 months remaining after a mid March launch but I may have calculated wrong.

Customer slips are going to play a proportionally increasing amount of havoc with the schedule (compared to internally generated delays) as SpaceX increases their own repeatability and reduces cycle times. 

So I think it's going to become increasingly important for SpaceX to figure out how to reorder the lineup when customer slips happen. It would be nice if they were in a position to do Orbcomm first but they are not. Maybe by the end of this year they will be in a position, with improved flow, to juggle things when customer driven slips happen.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: aero on 02/06/2014 04:06 pm
Having that second pad ready at the cape would be very helpful, especially down the road and probably before it will be ready. That is, they will need the second pad before it is available.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Sohl on 02/06/2014 05:11 pm
Kaputnik:
Quote
It doesn't matter if SpaceX can technically do 12 flights this year, they won't launch without a payload.

... or a destination ready to receive them.  The lack of control over external factors is the main reason I predicted 7 orbital launches in 2014 even though it is fairly clear SpaceX could handle 10 to 12 launches in ideal circumstances, at least for the expendable launcher missions. Things happen with payloads, with ISS for cargo runs, with the weather, with the pad/range, etc., etc.  Attempting booster recovery and reuse will probably introduce at least a few small delays of its own, but I think the main drag on launch rate this year will be these various external factors.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: ChefPat on 02/06/2014 05:18 pm
Unless it's been verified somewhere, I'll bet the rocket isn't even at Cape Canaveral yet.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/06/2014 05:36 pm
...and, I'm still fairly comfortable with 6 launches this year. :)

Slips happen. But I also don't think we should just blame it on the customer, either. If SpaceX were completely ready, customer slips would probably end up being less severe...

They'll get there, though. It'll just take more time than they'd like.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lurker Steve on 02/06/2014 09:12 pm
I think that it's worth noting that the slip of SpX-CRS-3 is mostly due to customer issues rather than problems at SpaceX's end. It's difficult to draw wider conclusions from this.

Is there a source for this ?? Why would the delay be on NASA's end when the VV schedule was already set for them to launch on March 1 ?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jakusb on 02/06/2014 09:56 pm

I think that it's worth noting that the slip of SpX-CRS-3 is mostly due to customer issues rather than problems at SpaceX's end. It's difficult to draw wider conclusions from this.

Is there a source for this ?? Why would the delay be on NASA's end when the VV schedule was already set for them to launch on March 1 ?

I thought it was public, but at least the true cause is on L2. It is not NASA causing the delay.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: john smith 19 on 02/06/2014 11:09 pm
I get 9 1/2 months remaining after a mid March launch but I may have calculated wrong.

Customer slips are going to play a proportionally increasing amount of havoc with the schedule (compared to internally generated delays) as SpaceX increases their own repeatability and reduces cycle times. 

So I think it's going to become increasingly important for SpaceX to figure out how to reorder the lineup when customer slips happen. It would be nice if they were in a position to do Orbcomm first but they are not. Maybe by the end of this year they will be in a position, with improved flow, to juggle things when customer driven slips happen.
Fair points. That is 9 1/2 months. That's about a month and 5 days between flights on most peoples estimate.

Spacex say they have 14 payloads planned for this year.

I note 2 of those are out of Vandenberg, which should be widely enough apart that they won't block each other.  So on Spacex's schedule that leaves 11 over 9 1/2 months. Or (if 8 is right, including the 2 out of Vandenberg, that's 5 over 9 1/2 months).

OTOH then we've got the issues with post flight analysis finding problems with reuse.

How that would divert resources to the follow on launches is (outside Spacex) unknown.  :(
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Elmar Moelzer on 02/06/2014 11:13 pm

I think that it's worth noting that the slip of SpX-CRS-3 is mostly due to customer issues rather than problems at SpaceX's end. It's difficult to draw wider conclusions from this.

Is there a source for this ?? Why would the delay be on NASA's end when the VV schedule was already set for them to launch on March 1 ?

I thought it was public, but at least the true cause is on L2. It is not NASA causing the delay.
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/02/spacex-dragons-crs-3-launch-march-16/
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dcporter on 02/07/2014 03:06 am

I think that it's worth noting that the slip of SpX-CRS-3 is mostly due to customer issues rather than problems at SpaceX's end. It's difficult to draw wider conclusions from this.

Is there a source for this ?? Why would the delay be on NASA's end when the VV schedule was already set for them to launch on March 1 ?

I thought it was public, but at least the true cause is on L2. It is not NASA causing the delay.

Except for the several days at the end of the delay that are caused by NASA.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: skybum on 02/07/2014 03:00 pm
I'm pretty much a raving SpaceX amazing people, but I voted for six orbital flights this year, and am still feeling pretty good about that number. I actually believe that they'd be fully capable of twelve flights this year, IF they were in straightforward operations mode and there were:

* No delays due to payload issues
* No delays due to range issues
* No delays due to the Dragon abort tests, which are very nearly orbital campaigns in themselves
* No delays to accommodate the desire to start recovering stages (if not yet reusing them)
* No delays to accommodate the desire to get the Falcon Heavy hot-fired and on the pad (if not yet launched)

...however since I expect all of those those things to happen, six feels like a very realistic number.

I don't think they'll be in straightforward operations mode in 2015 either, as they'll be trying to get the Dragon Rider and Falcon Heavy off the pad, as well as to start reusing the stages. Nonetheless, I expect to see 9-12 orbital launches in 2015. Assuming they're successful in all these things (and I believe they will be), 2016 onwards is where the launch rates should begin to get really interesting.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: QuantumG on 02/07/2014 09:12 pm
Welcome to the forum. Great first post!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: john smith 19 on 02/09/2014 02:08 pm
I'm pretty much a raving SpaceX amazing people, but I voted for six orbital flights this year, and am still feeling pretty good about that number. I actually believe that they'd be fully capable of twelve flights this year, IF they were in straightforward operations mode and there were:
Welcome to the site.
Quote

* No delays due to payload issues
* No delays due to range issues
* No delays due to the Dragon abort tests, which are very nearly orbital campaigns in themselves
* No delays to accommodate the desire to start recovering stages (if not yet reusing them)
* No delays to accommodate the desire to get the Falcon Heavy hot-fired and on the pad (if not yet launched)

...however since I expect all of those those things to happen, six feels like a very realistic number.
That would make you a realistic Spacex amazing people.  :)

One small point. FH flies from Vandenberg and there is only one other payload booked from there. Since it's Spacex's pad they have full access. The joker is wheather they have a separate Vandenberg pad team. If they do they can focus on those 2 launches only. If the team is shared then things get more complicated.

6 is in fact a bit pessimistic relative to most votes but given the very first flight has been dropped back a few more accumulated delays and I could see it looking generous.  :)

IIRC the Shuttle never achieved more than 9 flights in a single year. It's a long way out but I suspect that when Spacex flies 10 reusable flights in 1 year that will be a real milestone year.

Time will tell.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: gospacex on 02/09/2014 07:33 pm
I wonder who are those two people who voted for 1 flight?
It's amazing that there are people who consciously *want SpaceX to fail*...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: hop on 02/09/2014 09:59 pm
It's amazing that there are people who consciously *want SpaceX to fail*...
Err... I doubt the 1 votes were serious, but expecting them to fail is not at all the same as wanting them to fail.

It's interesting to me that 1-4 combined has less votes that 12+, with no one at all picking 2 or 3. I don't think a bad failure grounding SpaceX for the rest of the year after 2-3 flights is likely, but it's a lot more plausible than >12.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: john smith 19 on 02/09/2014 11:14 pm
It's interesting to me that 1-4 combined has less votes that 12+, with no one at all picking 2 or 3. I don't think a bad failure grounding SpaceX for the rest of the year after 2-3 flights is likely, but it's a lot more plausible than >12.
Good point. We've talked about delays but not actual outright failure, IE a flight termination or an actual stage explosion in flight.

That would really change the game.  :(  :(
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 02/10/2014 12:24 am
It's interesting to me that 1-4 combined has less votes that 12+, with no one at all picking 2 or 3. I don't think a bad failure grounding SpaceX for the rest of the year after 2-3 flights is likely, but it's a lot more plausible than >12.
Good point. We've talked about delays but not actual outright failure, IE a flight termination or an actual stage explosion in flight.

That would really change the game.  :(  :(

That 'could' change the game, not necessarily 'would'.  The outcome 'would' depend on the root cause of the failure, how quickly it was identified, and how quickly a fix that would satisfy customers and insurers could be implemented.

So far, both the F9 and the F9v1.1 would appear to be a robust design and manufacturing has thrown up no issues other than the original engine-out issue which lead to increased NDT of product.
I would say that on balance, outright failure is starting to seem remote. 

Many people seem to think that a failure is a given however that's not the case.  SpaceX have designed their vehciles so that they are robust, have engine-out capability at least on the first stage, and they continue to advance and refine their designs.  They've had issues on both stages and their spacecraft however so far, nothing has lead to an outright failure.

Perhaps they're going to be the exception to the rule.  As they develop greater flight history, it seems people believe that the greater the chance of failure occurring however each flight is independant of preceeding flights and therefore the probability of failure is no greater or lesser than those previous flights.  You could argue that the odds change either way due to changes in manufacturing, design, staff attitudes, etc., but I'd prefer the KISS principle.  If there's been no failure to date and each flight is independent of other flights then there's no greater or lesser probability of a failure for the next flight or the next one after that and so on.

Of course, this is just the reasoning of a SpaceX fan so ...   ;)

Cheers,
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 02/10/2014 06:10 am
It's amazing that there are people who consciously *want SpaceX to fail*...
Err... I doubt the 1 votes were serious, but expecting them to fail is not at all the same as wanting them to fail.

It's interesting to me that 1-4 combined has less votes that 12+, with no one at all picking 2 or 3. I don't think a bad failure grounding SpaceX for the rest of the year after 2-3 flights is likely, but it's a lot more plausible than >12.

Let's see, their manifest currently sits at 12 excluding the FH which I think should be since it could hardly be classified as an operational launch.  So add the rollover from 2013 and that maxes out the number at lucky 13.  So far we've had a slip of a month and a half although vehicle upgrades are probably going to be minimal for the rest of the year AFAIK.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jcc on 02/10/2014 09:48 am
What I wonder is why delays to Dragon/CRS-3 should prevent work from proceeding on the next sat launch.
If it does that means they are lacking in facilities and personnel.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Zardar on 02/10/2014 11:38 am
What I wonder is why delays to Dragon/CRS-3 should prevent work from proceeding on the next sat launch.
If it does that means they are lacking in facilities and personnel.

I think the spacex launch prep building at the cape is only big enough to process one launcher at a time.
The construction cost and time for that type of building is relatively cheap ( at least compared to the huge heavy steel and concrete facilities the russians are building for their new launch site). Since spacex hasn't yet taken the relatively easy option of widening their building, (or building a second one), it could be deduced that the real bottleneck in flow is further back along the line.

They are building a second, larger test stand in texas, but that hasn't been used yet as far as we know, and recent aerial photos don't show much new infrastructure on it. So, the bottleneck is probably not at the hot-fire stage testing phase.
(they do have a new shed in Texas just wide enough for a FH though)

That would imply that they just can't get them out the door in hawthorne at a rate of more than one every 2 or 3 months, despite claims a year ago that they had capacity to produce one core a month. (and a dragon every 3 months)

Certainly we have never seen photos of more than 3 or 4 cores simultaneously (crammed up at one end of the plant).
Since I have seen mentioned on here that Spacex has bought/leased additional buildings near hawthorne, production space should not be the bottleneck (they could move software/dragon/mission control to other buildings)

Slow production flow may due to any number of reasons - perhaps holding off production starts until F9.1 design was proven good, internal quality issues needing scrap/rework or perhaps not enough trained staff to fully run the production.

SpaceX have recently accelerated hiring (or at least advertising for staff), so perhaps that will speed up production!

With CRS missions, you are practically guaranteed to have some slippage due to ISS issues or VV scheduling etc. If they had the integration space, the cores and the staff, they could have rescheduled a commercial mission in front of CRS. They probably can't just swap rockets, since  the QA paperwork for the physical rocket is probably tied to each customer's mission. (They did make stage payments on it after all!)

When we see activity on the fit-out and use of the new stand in texas, and new integration buildings under construction at the cape to allow parallel launch campaigns, then I will believe that SpaceX will soon (within 6 months) be able to hit a higher sustained launch rate than one every 2 months.
Until then, expect a fair bit of slippage to the right. 
(And FH will definitely be delayed until they have enough slack to produce the 3 cores needed)














Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: intrepidpursuit on 02/10/2014 03:01 pm
What I wonder is why delays to Dragon/CRS-3 should prevent work from proceeding on the next sat launch.
If it does that means they are lacking in facilities and personnel.

I think the spacex launch prep building at the cape is only big enough to process one launcher at a time.
The construction cost and time for that type of building is relatively cheap ( at least compared to the huge heavy steel and concrete facilities the russians are building for their new launch site). Since spacex hasn't yet taken the relatively easy option of widening their building, (or building a second one), it could be deduced that the real bottleneck in flow is further back along the line.

They are building a second, larger test stand in texas, but that hasn't been used yet as far as we know, and recent aerial photos don't show much new infrastructure on it. So, the bottleneck is probably not at the hot-fire stage testing phase.
(they do have a new shed in Texas just wide enough for a FH though)

That would imply that they just can't get them out the door in hawthorne at a rate of more than one every 2 or 3 months, despite claims a year ago that they had capacity to produce one core a month. (and a dragon every 3 months)

Certainly we have never seen photos of more than 3 or 4 cores simultaneously (crammed up at one end of the plant).
Since I have seen mentioned on here that Spacex has bought/leased additional buildings near hawthorne, production space should not be the bottleneck (they could move software/dragon/mission control to other buildings)

Slow production flow may due to any number of reasons - perhaps holding off production starts until F9.1 design was proven good, internal quality issues needing scrap/rework or perhaps not enough trained staff to fully run the production.

SpaceX have recently accelerated hiring (or at least advertising for staff), so perhaps that will speed up production!

With CRS missions, you are practically guaranteed to have some slippage due to ISS issues or VV scheduling etc. If they had the integration space, the cores and the staff, they could have rescheduled a commercial mission in front of CRS. They probably can't just swap rockets, since  the QA paperwork for the physical rocket is probably tied to each customer's mission. (They did make stage payments on it after all!)

When we see activity on the fit-out and use of the new stand in texas, and new integration buildings under construction at the cape to allow parallel launch campaigns, then I will believe that SpaceX will soon (within 6 months) be able to hit a higher sustained launch rate than one every 2 months.
Until then, expect a fair bit of slippage to the right. 
(And FH will definitely be delayed until they have enough slack to produce the 3 cores needed)

I was rooting for 10 launches this year, but I no longer think that is possible with a nearly 3 month gap. We already know that the delay was caused by issues with delivery of the stage and not by ISS operations, although ISS did add a few days to the end. The speculation about launching another payload first is just silly in light of that information. Two payloads and no stages does not equal an earlier flight of the second payload, no matter how much processing space there is. SpaceX would have to accelerate to a launch every 3 weeks with 0 delays to meet their manifest. That is not going to happen this year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/11/2014 04:41 pm
SpaceX has had failures in the past and has survived them. Still, they better not have too many more...

4 flights seems like a serious possibility. I don't discount it. That's still more than last year. I still think 6 is the most likely, though. We shall see.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 02/11/2014 11:42 pm
SpaceX has had failures in the past and has survived them. Still, they better not have too many more...

4 flights seems like a serious possibility. I don't discount it. That's still more than last year. I still think 6 is the most likely, though. We shall see.
4 seems very pessimistic.  They nearly did that last year.  Even 6 is on the down side.  There's still 9 months of the year left after the CRS 3 launch.  What makes you think they're going to require so much time between launches?
My WAG is if they can't get their rate up to at least 8 (6 weeks per launch figure after the CRS) this year then they have serious issues somewhere in their workflow.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/12/2014 12:08 am
They ALREADY have serious issues with their workflow. Just growing pains, but it takes more than one year to get them ironed out. It took ULA quite a while to get Atlas V's flight rate up to 10 per year or so.

And yeah, I didn't vote 4. I voted 6. I'm just saying that 4 isn't out of the question.

SpaceX is ramping up. I have no doubt they'll be seriously challenging or even exceeding ULA's flightrate of 10-12/year by 2016 (while also making life miserable for Ariane/Airbus once Falcon Heavy is introduced and F9 v1.1 has dozens of launches in its history). But it doesn't happen overnight. What has happened in the last 6 months or so, though, is that SpaceX's competitors have stopped laughing at them, or at least they're now laughing nervously...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 02/12/2014 12:17 am
They ALREADY have serious issues with their workflow. Just growing pains, but it takes more than one year to get them ironed out. It took ULA quite a while to get Atlas V's flight rate up to 10 per year or so.

And yeah, I didn't vote 4. I voted 6. I'm just saying that 4 isn't out of the question.

SpaceX is ramping up. I have no doubt they'll be seriously challenging or even exceeding ULA's flightrate of 10-12/year by 2015 or 2016 (while also making life miserable for Ariane/Airbus once Falcon Heavy is introduced and F9 v1.1 has dozens of launches in its history). But it doesn't happen overnight. What has happened in the last 6 months or so, though, is that SpaceX's competitors have stopped laughing at them, or at least they're now laughing nervously...

Yes certainly ArianeSpace is getting very nervous.  Just posted a link to an article in the 'Who will compete with SpaceX thread'.

Ok so any ideas on where they're suffering issues in their workflow?  I mean they've got pretty much a vehicle that isn't going to change much now (another WAG).  Pad flow should be worked out by now (another WAG) and manufacturing workflow should also be pretty much sorted I would think based on some of the factory photos that show multiple stages in progress.  That doesn't leave many areas for issues. 
IIRC the issue with the forthcoming CRS3 has been around the Dragon upgrades but for satellite launches where do you think issues exist?  Just seems like 6 weeks is enough time between launches.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/12/2014 12:31 am
We haven't seen factory pictures in a while, so we don't know. I'm just going by the fact that it takes a finite amount of time to ramp up to a high launch rate, mostly. But also, notice they have already pushed back SpX-3 a few weeks. It was supposed to launch in just 11 days from now, but looks like more than a month from now. Stuff just takes time, you guys.

Always longer than you think you're actually capable of.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 02/12/2014 01:07 am
SpaceX has had failures in the past and has survived them. Still, they better not have too many more...

4 flights seems like a serious possibility. I don't discount it. That's still more than last year. I still think 6 is the most likely, though. We shall see.
4 seems very pessimistic.  They nearly did that last year.  Even 6 is on the down side.  There's still 9 months of the year left after the CRS 3 launch.  What makes you think they're going to require so much time between launches?
My WAG is if they can't get their rate up to at least 8 (6 weeks per launch figure after the CRS) this year then they have serious issues somewhere in their workflow.

the issue continues to be a management issue.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/12/2014 01:43 am
SpaceX has had failures in the past and has survived them. Still, they better not have too many more...

4 flights seems like a serious possibility. I don't discount it. That's still more than last year. I still think 6 is the most likely, though. We shall see.
4 seems very pessimistic.  They nearly did that last year.  Even 6 is on the down side.  There's still 9 months of the year left after the CRS 3 launch.  What makes you think they're going to require so much time between launches?
My WAG is if they can't get their rate up to at least 8 (6 weeks per launch figure after the CRS) this year then they have serious issues somewhere in their workflow.

the issue continues to be a management issue.
...based on what??
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 02/13/2014 12:49 am
SpaceX has had failures in the past and has survived them. Still, they better not have too many more...

4 flights seems like a serious possibility. I don't discount it. That's still more than last year. I still think 6 is the most likely, though. We shall see.
4 seems very pessimistic.  They nearly did that last year.  Even 6 is on the down side.  There's still 9 months of the year left after the CRS 3 launch.  What makes you think they're going to require so much time between launches?
My WAG is if they can't get their rate up to at least 8 (6 weeks per launch figure after the CRS) this year then they have serious issues somewhere in their workflow.

the issue continues to be a management issue.
...based on what??
Looks like it was based on a WAG  :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: guckyfan on 02/21/2014 07:51 am
According to pbds twitter here has just been a new SES-flight with Falcon 9 added with flight date early 2015.

Doesn't this imply they are quite confident they can fly their manifest this year?

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MikeAtkinson on 02/21/2014 08:17 am
According to pbds twitter here has just been a new SES-flight with Falcon 9 added with flight date early 2015.

Doesn't this imply they are quite confident they can fly their manifest this year?

SES have a F9 booked in 2015, this just might mean assigning the AsiaPac SES-9 satellite to the launch.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Proponent on 02/21/2014 11:57 am
Yeah, and the 2015 SES launch has been on the manifest since April 2011.  Presumably the recent announcement is about another launch.  There's a SpaceX presser from September 2012 (http://www.spacex.com/press/2012/12/19/ses-and-spacex-announce-contract-three-satellite-launches) about an agreement with SES to launch three satellites after SES-8.  I presume the 2015 and 2016 launches are the first two of these three.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 02/21/2014 03:04 pm
The long delay of SPX-3 after Thiacom launch is due to a concatenation of uncontrollable events.  First was ISS repair work that slipped the VV schedule. Then there was the freezing weather and icy road conditions that delayed testing and transport of stages. You don't transport a multi-million dollar stage on icy roads where accident rate is very high and likelihood of damage to the stage becomes almost a certainty. Then because of the weather delay the VV scheduling caused more delays.

This is an example of why even if they can do a 30 day interval when no such events occur and the maximum launch rate would be 12 on a single pad, I estimated that 8 would be the best they could accomplish at CCAFS. Add 2 from VAFB and you get 10. Launching to ISS and dealing with NASA scheduling will cause significant launch delays for each of the CRS launches planned this year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Elmar Moelzer on 02/21/2014 03:07 pm
If the have RTLS working (with enough routine), at least they wont have to worry about transporting the stages across the country, which might help with improving the schedule a little bit.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 02/21/2014 03:34 pm
If the have RTLS working (with enough routine), at least they wont have to worry about transporting the stages across the country, which might help with improving the schedule a little bit.

Musk's statement about RTLS is that it is a NET late 2014 option. SInce this is the case RTLS is not a player in 2014 launch scheduling issues. But for an even busier 2015 launch schedule it could have an impact in minimum time between launches if the 1st stage does not require a lot of rework for the next flight: "Rapid Reuse".
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Elmar Moelzer on 02/21/2014 04:00 pm
Musk's statement about RTLS is that it is a NET late 2014 option. SInce this is the case RTLS is not a player in 2014 launch scheduling issues.
Quite naturally, I was not talking about 2014. We will be happy to see an RTLS at all this year and certainly not "with enough routine".
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: oiorionsbelt on 02/22/2014 02:04 am
"Rapid Reuse".
would be a game changer. To think it may happen in 2015 is exciting.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: mheney on 02/24/2014 03:27 pm
You don't think they're going to haul recovered stages back to Hawthorne and do a hot-fire (re)qualifying test before reuse?  Maybe after building a significant history, but certainly not in the first dozen (at least) reflights....
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/24/2014 03:42 pm
Actually, hauling stages around the country is kind of a pain. They may opt to do whatever intensive initial checks and refurbishment at the launch site.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Rocket Science on 02/24/2014 03:51 pm
Actually, hauling stages around the country is kind of a pain. They may opt to do whatever intensive initial checks and refurbishment at the launch site.
Apart from the politics, it still baffles me why launch vehicles are not built close to the launch facility oustide any danger zone...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Thorny on 02/24/2014 03:58 pm
Apart from the politics, it still baffles me why launch vehicles are not built close to the launch facility oustide any danger zone...

There is more than one launch facility for Atlas, Delta and Falcon. So unless you want a manufacturing site at each launch facility, you're going to be hauling launch vehicles around the country.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: guckyfan on 02/24/2014 04:02 pm
Actually, hauling stages around the country is kind of a pain. They may opt to do whatever intensive initial checks and refurbishment at the launch site.

They do haul every stage so far all across the country. They will do the evaluation of the first stage(s) whereever it is most convenient workwise. But after 1, 2or 3 IMO they will do whatever check they deem necessary at the launch site. Otherwise RTLS does not make sense.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Rocket Science on 02/24/2014 07:40 pm
Apart from the politics, it still baffles me why launch vehicles are not built close to the launch facility oustide any danger zone...

There is more than one launch facility for Atlas, Delta and Falcon. So unless you want a manufacturing site at each launch facility, you're going to be hauling launch vehicles around the country.
Kodiak, for polar orbits, has about a quarter of what launches from the Cape. Transportation is fine for smaller ELV’s but large stages like Saturn or SLS are limited to what can be physically transported compromising the design. Anyways... were going OT... :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 02/26/2014 07:09 am
Back on topic.

We're looking at a March 16th launch and we've now seen the vehicle with legs and looking pretty good I must say.  Someone posted that they should have been painted black to stand out but it's a night launch isn't it?

This will be launch number 2 for 2014.  No one voted for only 2 so no bets riding on it.  Oh well, and then we have the OrbCom flight to look forward to.  I, for one, want to see about a flight a month from now on.  That'll get SpaceX over the 8 I voted for  :)  and anyway, they've had long enough  ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: spectre9 on 02/27/2014 01:44 am
I still think SpaceX can't afford to launch 6 rockets this year.

They will just end up building warehouses to store rockets that they can't be bothered launching and that doesn't sound right to me.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 02/27/2014 01:57 am
I still think SpaceX can't afford to launch 6 rockets this year.

They will just end up building warehouses to store rockets that they can't be bothered launching and that doesn't sound right to me.

Huh? can't afford? Please explain how they'll have hardware lying around, paying customers waiting to launch payloads, yet they can't afford to launch them? How does this work?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 02/27/2014 03:03 am
I still think SpaceX can't afford to launch 6 rockets this year.

They will just end up building warehouses to store rockets that they can't be bothered launching and that doesn't sound right to me.

Please enlighten us with your insider knowledge of SpaceX finances... this is so out of left field as to be astonishing...
   
Gramps...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Elmar Moelzer on 02/27/2014 03:06 am
I still think SpaceX can't afford to launch 6 rockets this year.

They will just end up building warehouses to store rockets that they can't be bothered launching and that doesn't sound right to me.

My guess is that spectre9 meant "they can't afford to launch less than 6 rockets this year or otherwise they will just end up building...". No other interpretation of his post makes any sense.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: tigerade on 03/04/2014 11:39 am
As discussed by Galactic Penguin in SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Orbcomm OG2- TBD - DISCUSSION THREAD (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33089.30):

Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes
Orbcomm CEO: Our SpaceX launch, of 1st six 2nd-gen sats, sched for April 30, after SpaceX NASA CRS. 11 remaining sats set for SpaceX in Nov.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/440798093290655744 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/440798093290655744)

So after the March 16th launch of CRS3, the next launch is the 4-30 launch of Orbcomm.

That makes 3 launches in the first four months of 2014 (Jan, Feb, Mar and Apr).

Crunch the numbers as you wish.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ric Capucho on 03/04/2014 01:55 pm
As discussed by Galactic Penguin in SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Orbcomm OG2- TBD - DISCUSSION THREAD (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33089.30):

Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes
Orbcomm CEO: Our SpaceX launch, of 1st six 2nd-gen sats, sched for April 30, after SpaceX NASA CRS. 11 remaining sats set for SpaceX in Nov.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/440798093290655744 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/440798093290655744)

So after the March 16th launch of CRS3, the next launch is the 4-30 launch of Orbcomm.

That makes 3 launches in the first four months of 2014 (Jan, Feb, Mar and Apr).

Crunch the numbers as you wish.

That makes 1 launch in the first 2.5 months, putting 'em on track for four launches this year. Which is what I voted for.

TW
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Kaputnik on 03/04/2014 03:03 pm
As discussed by Galactic Penguin in SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Orbcomm OG2- TBD - DISCUSSION THREAD (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33089.30):

Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes
Orbcomm CEO: Our SpaceX launch, of 1st six 2nd-gen sats, sched for April 30, after SpaceX NASA CRS. 11 remaining sats set for SpaceX in Nov.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/440798093290655744 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/440798093290655744)

So after the March 16th launch of CRS3, the next launch is the 4-30 launch of Orbcomm.

That makes 3 launches in the first four months of 2014 (Jan, Feb, Mar and Apr).

Crunch the numbers as you wish.

That makes 1 launch in the first 2.5 months, putting 'em on track for four launches this year. Which is what I voted for.

TW

But if the April launch goes off to plan, that average would lead to nine launches.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 03/04/2014 03:05 pm
As discussed by Galactic Penguin in SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Orbcomm OG2- TBD - DISCUSSION THREAD (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33089.30):

Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes
Orbcomm CEO: Our SpaceX launch, of 1st six 2nd-gen sats, sched for April 30, after SpaceX NASA CRS. 11 remaining sats set for SpaceX in Nov.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/440798093290655744 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/440798093290655744)

So after the March 16th launch of CRS3, the next launch is the 4-30 launch of Orbcomm.

That makes 3 launches in the first four months of 2014 (Jan, Feb, Mar and Apr).

Crunch the numbers as you wish.

That makes 1 launch in the first 2.5 months, putting 'em on track for four launches this year. Which is what I voted for.

TW

But if the April launch goes off to plan, that average would lead to nine launches.

Only if the following one goes of in the first week of May, as did the first one in the first four months of the year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 03/04/2014 03:24 pm
As discussed by Galactic Penguin in SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Orbcomm OG2- TBD - DISCUSSION THREAD (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33089.30):

Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes
Orbcomm CEO: Our SpaceX launch, of 1st six 2nd-gen sats, sched for April 30, after SpaceX NASA CRS. 11 remaining sats set for SpaceX in Nov.

So after the March 16th launch of CRS3, the next launch is the 4-30 launch of Orbcomm.
That makes 3 launches in the first four months of 2014 (Jan, Feb, Mar and Apr).
Crunch the numbers as you wish.

That makes 1 launch in the first 2.5 months, putting 'em on track for four launches this year. Which is what I voted for.
TW

But if the April launch goes off to plan, that average would lead to nine launches.

Only if the following one goes of in the first week of May, as did the first one in the first four months of the year.

Oh, Puhleez! :P
To Mark Twain's list of "Liars, Damned Liars, and Statistics" we should append "Excel". ;D
Can we just let the year play out?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 03/04/2014 03:32 pm
Oh, Puhleez! :P
To Mark Twain's list of "Liars, Damned Liars, and Statistics" we should append "Excel". ;D

This worked out pretty well last time, predicting the final STS flight to within about a month from 2 years out:

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=16790.5

Quote
Can we just let the year play out?

The most accurate predictions do come after the fact.  However, they are also the most useless predictions.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Zed_Noir on 03/04/2014 04:13 pm
Any indication that SpaceX got separate processing and maybe launch teams at CCAFS & VAFB yet?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Proponent on 03/04/2014 04:55 pm
That makes 1 launch in the first 2.5 months, putting 'em on track for four launches this year. Which is what I voted for.

Wouldn't that be five launches (Jan., Mar., Jun., Aug. & Nov.)?  (Which happens to be what I voted for :))
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 03/04/2014 05:36 pm
it is still theroetically possible to hit 8, but it depends on a few "if's"
IF they launch CRS4 on the target date of June 8th
IF they launch one of the Asia Sat in late July early August to leave room for preps for September 12 launch of CRS 5
IF they hit those targets, then an Early November Obcom launch would fit in with a possible launch change for CRS6 from December 5th to mid December.

Now I am reminded of Dirty Harry's question, did you count the shots (Launches), how lucky do you feel ;-)

Gramps
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: llanitedave on 03/04/2014 06:11 pm

The most accurate predictions do come after the fact.  However, they are also the most useless predictions.

Every prediction in this poll is useless as far as SpaceX or their clients are concerned.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 03/05/2014 12:28 am

The most accurate predictions do come after the fact.  However, they are also the most useless predictions.

Every prediction in this poll is useless as far as SpaceX or their clients are concerned.

It's our poll, not their's.  :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 03/05/2014 12:31 am
it is still theroetically possible to hit 8, but it depends on a few "if's"
IF they launch CRS4 on the target date of June 8th
IF they launch one of the Asia Sat in late July early August to leave room for preps for September 12 launch of CRS 5
IF they hit those targets, then an Early November Obcom launch would fit in with a possible launch change for CRS6 from December 5th to mid December.

Now I am reminded of Dirty Harry's question, did you count the shots (Launches), how lucky do you feel ;-)

Gramps

You are joking right?  There's still 9 months of the year available after March.  Do'ya reckon SpaceX is simply going to sit on their laurals and let the time slide by without launching.   5 launches in 9 months, approx 7 weeks per launch.  Needless to say, I voted for 8  :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 03/05/2014 12:51 am
it is still theroetically possible to hit 8, but it depends on a few "if's"
IF they launch CRS4 on the target date of June 8th
IF they launch one of the Asia Sat in late July early August to leave room for preps for September 12 launch of CRS 5
IF they hit those targets, then an Early November Obcom launch would fit in with a possible launch change for CRS6 from December 5th to mid December.

Now I am reminded of Dirty Harry's question, did you count the shots (Launches), how lucky do you feel ;-)

Gramps

You are joking right?  There's still 9 months of the year available after March.  Do'ya reckon SpaceX is simply going to sit on their laurals and let the time slide by without launching.   5 launches in 9 months, approx 7 weeks per launch.  Needless to say, I voted for 8  :)

well I did say it was possible... it's just the way that they have stacked up the manifests "firm" dates that is making it hard to say it is very likely... I hope that they do... even though I took the pessimistic view and voted for 6...
    btw, I hope they don't sit on their laurals, in fact I am counting on them not to...  I want to see the BFR/MCT Launched... ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/05/2014 02:27 am
Oh, Puhleez! :P
To Mark Twain's list of "Liars, Damned Liars, and Statistics" we should append "Excel". ;D

This worked out pretty well last time, predicting the final STS flight to within about a month from 2 years out:

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=16790.5

Quote
Can we just let the year play out?

The most accurate predictions do come after the fact.  However, they are also the most useless predictions.
Ha! Nice. Did you ever make a graph showing how well the actual flights matched up with the line you made for Shuttle?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: mme on 03/05/2014 04:07 pm
The article Musk: Europe Can't Handle Our NASA Contract (http://www.aviationweek.com/Blogs.aspx?plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3a04ce340e-4b63-4d23-9695-d49ab661f385Post%3a9d7d8573-1de3-41df-b2b0-021863e3fc70) states 4 launches are expected to slip to 2015.
Quote
After the success of its first two Falcon 9 launches to GTO in December and January, SpaceX now has 15 launches on its manifest, four of which are expected to slip into 2015, including the debut of the company’s Falcon Heavy, which Musk said could take place early next year.
It then lists the manifest, presumably the last four in the following quote are the ones "expected to slip:"
Quote
Following the January launch of Thaicom 6 for Bangkok-based fleet operator Thaicom, SpaceX plans to conduct four cargo resupply runs for NASA in 2014, the first of which is slated for March 16. Two launches for New Jersey-based fleet operator Orbcomm are also planned, along with two GTO missions for AsiaSat of Hong Kong, a GTO launch for the government of Turkmenistan and an Argentinian Earth observation satellite to be launched from SpaceX’s new pad at Vandenberg AFB, Calif. The manifest also includes a U.S. Air Force launch of NOAA's Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) mission and a dual-launch of Boeing's first two all-electric 702SP satellites built for Asia Broadcast Satellite (ABS) of Hong Kong and Satmex of Mexico.

In a Feb. 14 earnings call, Satmex owner Eutelsat listed its future launches, indicating the first all-electric Satmex launch -- Satmex-7 -- will take place in the first quarter of 2015.
So the upper limit is now 11. I'm not saying they will launch 11, it's just interesting to see where current "best case" expectations stand. Full disclosure: I voted 9 and I think 9 is optimistic.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 03/05/2014 04:48 pm
You are joking right?  There's still 9 months of the year available after March.  Do'ya reckon SpaceX is simply going to sit on their laurals and let the time slide by without launching.
Of course it is possible. Do you checked dates of previous launches and how long gaps were? Surely you know when each and every F9 launch happened? You remember that one gap over year long? Sheesh...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 03/05/2014 11:52 pm
it is still theroetically possible to hit 8, but it depends on a few "if's"
IF they launch CRS4 on the target date of June 8th
IF they launch one of the Asia Sat in late July early August to leave room for preps for September 12 launch of CRS 5
IF they hit those targets, then an Early November Obcom launch would fit in with a possible launch change for CRS6 from December 5th to mid December.

Now I am reminded of Dirty Harry's question, did you count the shots (Launches), how lucky do you feel ;-)

Gramps

You are joking right?  There's still 9 months of the year available after March.  Do'ya reckon SpaceX is simply going to sit on their laurals and let the time slide by without launching.   5 launches in 9 months, approx 7 weeks per launch.  Needless to say, I voted for 8  :)

well I did say it was possible... it's just the way that they have stacked up the manifests "firm" dates that is making it hard to say it is very likely... I hope that they do... even though I took the pessimistic view and voted for 6...
    btw, I hope they don't sit on their laurals, in fact I am counting on them not to...  I want to see the BFR/MCT Launched... ;D
Yeh to that!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: llanitedave on 03/05/2014 11:53 pm
You are joking right?  There's still 9 months of the year available after March.  Do'ya reckon SpaceX is simply going to sit on their laurals and let the time slide by without launching.
Of course it is possible. Do you checked dates of previous launches and how long gaps were? Surely you know when each and every F9 launch happened? You remember that one gap over year long? Sheesh...

That gap was while they were building a new rocket.  They aren't doing that now.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 03/05/2014 11:54 pm
You are joking right?  There's still 9 months of the year available after March.  Do'ya reckon SpaceX is simply going to sit on their laurals and let the time slide by without launching.
Of course it is possible. Do you checked dates of previous launches and how long gaps were? Surely you know when each and every F9 launch happened? You remember that one gap over year long? Sheesh...

That gap was while they were building a new rocket.  They aren't doing that now.
Beat me to it.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 03/06/2014 01:31 am
That gap was while they were building a new rocket.  They aren't doing that now.
And of course it is only one possible reason for such gap.  ::) Anyone can always find excuses after fact.

Anyway, my point is that slips happens. Launch that we all now await was supposed to happen already. I start to think my vote (seven) was too optimistic.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 03/06/2014 01:39 am
That gap was while they were building a new rocket.  They aren't doing that now.
And of course it is only one possible reason for such gap.  ::) Anyone can always find excuses after fact.

Are you trolling? Or just unaware of the differences between v1.1 and previous F9s?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: llanitedave on 03/06/2014 01:57 am
::) Anyone can always find excuses after fact.


What the heck is that supposed to mean?  The transition to the new vehicle was announced in advance.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 03/06/2014 02:16 am
Oh, Puhleez! :P
To Mark Twain's list of "Liars, Damned Liars, and Statistics" we should append "Excel". ;D

This worked out pretty well last time, predicting the final STS flight to within about a month from 2 years out:

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=16790.5

Quote
Can we just let the year play out?

The most accurate predictions do come after the fact.  However, they are also the most useless predictions.
Ha! Nice. Did you ever make a graph showing how well the actual flights matched up with the line you made for Shuttle?

I did not, but the end point is pretty close.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 03/06/2014 03:00 am
I did not, but the end point is pretty close.

Okay, I re-created the plot from scratch.  Bonus points for anyone that can figure out why they are a little bit different.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 03/06/2014 04:10 am
::) Anyone can always find excuses after fact.


What the heck is that supposed to mean?  The transition to the new vehicle was announced in advance.

Yes I remember the debate.  Many disputed the fact that it was a 'new' vehicle, your's truly included, while Jim, for one, insisted that it essentially was.  Guess who was right?   :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: ChrisWilson68 on 03/06/2014 04:47 am
Yes I remember the debate.  Many disputed the fact that it was a 'new' vehicle, your's truly included, while Jim, for one, insisted that it essentially was.  Guess who was right?   :)

It's a fundamentally subjective question, so there's no right and wrong.  In some ways, v1.1 was a new vehicle.  In some ways, it was a modification of an existing vehicle.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 03/06/2014 02:52 pm
Anyone can always find excuses after fact.
What the heck is that supposed to mean?  The transition to the new vehicle was announced in advance.

I have impression we are talking about wrong gap. In original post I meant gap between 2 and 3 flight of F9 v1.0 - from 2010-12-08 to 2012-05-22, roughly one and half of year. In comparison, gap between last v1.0 and first v1.1 was pretty tame (about half of year) and I am certainly not complaining about that gap.

Are you trolling?
Nope, I am serious.
My point was: there is absolutely no basis for claim that now there will be no gaps. And after these gaps will inevitably happen, there will be post-fact excuses for them. They are post-fact, because originally those gaps were supposed to not happen at all, according to ever optimistic SpaceX fan-bois. This is why I call them post-fact excuses.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Kaputnik on 03/06/2014 03:53 pm
The gap between F9 flights two and three were driven by Dragon development.
Does anybody recall why SpaceX did not launch a different payload during that time, seeing as they had proven that their rocket worked?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 03/06/2014 04:04 pm
The gap between F9 flights two and three were driven by Dragon development.
Does anybody recall why SpaceX did not launch a different payload during that time, seeing as they had proven that their rocket worked?

Not sure, but the F9v1.0 production rate was apparently not very fast, and most importantly - the fairing was not ready.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 03/06/2014 05:54 pm
Looks like the chances of getting >8 launches in 2014 are almost gone. Apparently the will only be at most 3 Dragon launches this year according to http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1162280#msg1162280 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1162280#msg1162280):

Dragon CRS-4 now scheduled July 25
Dragon CRS-5 now scheduled November 27
Dragon CRS-6 now scheduled NET early 2015

With the 2nd Orbcomm launch also in November and the Turkmensat launch NET December, these launches are only small slips away from missing the launch in 2014.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 03/06/2014 06:25 pm
Is it really possible to launch twice in 3-4 weeks

Orbcomm G2 early November
CRS-5 November 27th

edit Orbcomm
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 03/06/2014 06:34 pm
Just want to add, that this looks so much like a weather forecast... everything before April 30th is pretty much short range, and pretty firm... after that, it is in flux and anything could happen, and it probably will ;D
   Don't plan the haying around this ;(
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: ChefPat on 03/06/2014 06:43 pm
Just want to add, that this looks so much like a weather forecast... everything before April 30th is pretty much short range, and pretty firm... after that, it is in flux and anything could happen, and it probably will ;D
   Don't plan the haying around this ;(
The SpaceX facilities at Cape Canaveral are pretty fragile. No? If a hurricane or strong Tropical Storm hits the area their hanger could take some serious damage that could put off the schedule too.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 03/06/2014 06:48 pm
Just want to add, that this looks so much like a weather forecast... everything before April 30th is pretty much short range, and pretty firm... after that, it is in flux and anything could happen, and it probably will ;D
   Don't plan the haying around this ;(
The SpaceX facilities at Cape Canaveral are pretty fragile. No? If a hurricane or strong Tropical Storm hits the area their hanger could take some serious damage that could put off the schedule too.

I had to open my big mouth  :o ok, hurricane season forecast:

http://www.weather.com/news/el-nino-enso-warming-ocean-pacific-drought-hurricane-20140306

June 1 to November 30th
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 03/06/2014 08:16 pm
CRS-3: Mach 16
Orbcomm: April 30

Why is this "big" gap? Orbcomm is more complicated than SES/Thaicom was?

Maybe something between? Dragon pad abort test? Or is it irrealisitic?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Joffan on 03/06/2014 08:46 pm
CRS-3: Mach 16
Orbcomm: April 30

Why is this "big" gap? Orbcomm is more complicated than SES/Thaicom was?

It's a good sign when a six-week gap is thought of as "big".


Maybe something between? Dragon pad abort test? Or is it irrealisitic?

The pad test is in June or July (from memory). The in-flight test - using the same Dragon if all goes well - a few months after that.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: guckyfan on 03/06/2014 08:56 pm
Maybe the "long gap" it is because of integrating multiple satellites for Orbcomm? Or does Orbcomm deliver them stacked?

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 03/06/2014 09:10 pm

It's a good sign when a six-week gap is thought of as "big".


Oh, yes, I voted for 10 flights, only that's why... :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 03/06/2014 09:18 pm
Maybe the "long gap" it is because of integrating multiple satellites for Orbcomm? Or does Orbcomm deliver them stacked?

Or because of the next iteration with the landing legs...?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: guckyfan on 03/06/2014 09:56 pm
Maybe the "long gap" it is because of integrating multiple satellites for Orbcomm? Or does Orbcomm deliver them stacked?

Or because of the next iteration with the landing legs...?

They would not let the legs get in the way of the launch rate.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: chalz on 03/07/2014 01:08 am
CRS-3: Mach 16
Orbcomm: April 30

Why is this "big" gap? Orbcomm is more complicated than SES/Thaicom was?

Maybe something between? Dragon pad abort test? Or is it irrealisitic?

A careful reading of Salo's schedule is encouraging:
Quote
NET April 30 - Orbcomm G2 (x6) (x8) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or mid-April)
April 30 seems like a probable 'mean' date, it is no longer NET, it may be sooner.

The way AsiaSat 6 has become less tightly scheduled seems a negative portent.
Quote
May summer - AsiaSat 6 (Thaicom 7) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Zardar on 03/07/2014 06:26 am
CRS-3: Mach 16
Orbcomm: April 30

Why is this "big" gap? Orbcomm is more complicated than SES/Thaicom was?

Maybe something between? Dragon pad abort test? Or is it irrealisitic?

Its a "long gap" because the Falcon to launch it has just left the hawthorn factory. So, that allows about 3 weeks to get to Texas and hot-fire it, and then about 4 weeks to get to the cape and prep and launch it. And even that might be tight....

So, even if SpaceX had no dragon updates to do, and had launched CRS3 back in Feb, they still wouldn't have had a rocket ready for the Orb launch until April.

They are supposed to be churning the stages out at a rate of one per month, but perhaps they are actually counting upper and lower stages separately - since they are only rolling falcons out at about once every 2 months!

At that rate, if they were to aim for a FH launch (or even a 'hardware on launch site') this year, taking 3+1 cores/stages out of the F9 production flow for FH would mean they would only have enough falcon 9.1's for 4 or 5 launches, which would cover the cargo flights for Nasa, but not much else.

Is there any evidence that SpaceX can produce cores at a rate of more than one per ~60 days, or is there some hard-cap in the production flow, and if so, what is that restriction, and how and when will they be able to overcome that?





Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 03/07/2014 10:47 am

They are supposed to be churning the stages out at a rate of one per month, but perhaps they are actually counting upper and lower stages separately - since they are only rolling falcons out at about once every 2 months!

At that rate, if they were to aim for a FH launch (or even a 'hardware on launch site') this year, taking 3+1 cores/stages out of the F9 production flow for FH would mean they would only have enough falcon 9.1's for 4 or 5 launches, which would cover the cargo flights for Nasa, but not much else.

Is there any evidence that SpaceX can produce cores at a rate of more than one per ~60 days, or is there some hard-cap in the production flow, and if so, what is that restriction, and how and when will they be able to overcome that?



I think you nailed it... its not ramping up as predicted..  at this rate FH will be a no show, no wonder its delayed another year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 03/07/2014 12:08 pm
Remember: they want to maintain a launch rate, have a finite production rate (optimistically 12/year at the moment) and no stockpile at the moment. How I'd do it is build a F9, then one of the FH cores, then another F-9 and so on. So, we're seeing F9's roll out at about 6/year at the moment because, during the next production cycle, they're working on one of the cores for FH-001.

Assuming that I'm right and there's no issues with any of the cores, production this year might be as high as nine F9s and the prototype FH.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rds100 on 03/07/2014 12:30 pm

I'd say they are not producing the cores as fast as you want, because there are still non-trivial design changes, like adding legs and probably some other changes we don't know about. Once the design is stabilized the production rate will be increased.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Sohl on 03/07/2014 12:46 pm

I'd say they are not producing the cores as fast as you want, because there are still non-trivial design changes, like adding legs and probably some other changes we don't know about. Once the design is stabilized the production rate will be increased.


I also agree that adding legs is causing design and build changes, and will likely continue to do so as they get flight and eventual landing experience with the legs. 

Maybe SpaceX is still considering changes to make the cores more common between the F9 and FH variants.  The FH will probably need core changes that would not be necessary on the F9R by itself, but they may want to to make building both F9R cores and FH cores similar as possible in terms of parts and manufacturing steps to lower costs and reduce defects, as long as the F9R performance isn't impacted too much.

Bottom line: don't expect a really fast ramp-up of production this year or the first half of next year.  I voted 7 flights in 2014.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: baldusi on 03/07/2014 05:48 pm
Why nobody's counting F9R-1 (i.e. Grashopper 2) as a core? It was delivered between CRS-3 and Orbcomm.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: 411rocket on 03/07/2014 07:38 pm
Why nobody's counting F9R-1 (i.e. Grashopper 2) as a core? It was delivered between CRS-3 and Orbcomm.

Probably, because it is a test bed & non orbital. Look at the tread title.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Karloss12 on 03/07/2014 08:36 pm

I'd say they are not producing the cores as fast as you want, because there are still non-trivial design changes, like adding legs and probably some other changes we don't know about. Once the design is stabilized the production rate will be increased.

They are going for re-usability, so one F9-R every 60 days is more than enough.

If attempts for re-usability fail or are seriously delayed by results of the next couple of re-entry attempts, then SpaceX will consider increasing production rates. 

Increasing the production rate would take a couple of years to train new skilled trades people and cost millions for new fabrication equipment etc.  Then if re-usability succeeds then the equipment is made redundant some of those trades people are made redundant and even go and use their newly acquired skills to fabricate ULA's re-usable rocket.

The customers will just have to wait....  just like they did with the delay to the first F9 v1.1 launch.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Joffan on 03/07/2014 08:59 pm
Why nobody's counting F9R-1 (i.e. Grashopper 2) as a core? It was delivered between CRS-3 and Orbcomm.

Probably, because it is a test bed & non orbital. Look at the tread title.

But it's still a core and still impacts production - which is the current topic of discussion. Figuring out whether core production is adequate to sustain a particular number of flights should naturally consider other production achieved (GH) or required (in-flight abort).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Excession on 03/08/2014 06:35 am
Why nobody's counting F9R-1 (i.e. Grashopper 2) as a core? It was delivered between CRS-3 and Orbcomm.

Probably, because it is a test bed & non orbital. Look at the tread title.

Look at what people are actually talking about now: the core production rate that SpaceX has achieved. Grashopper 2 is a core.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: baldusi on 03/08/2014 02:27 pm
Why nobody's counting F9R-1 (i.e. Grashopper 2) as a core? It was delivered between CRS-3 and Orbcomm.

Probably, because it is a test bed & non orbital. Look at the tread title.
Read the context. We're talking about the factory's rate of production. F9R counts as the core between CRS-3 and Orbcomm. That's 3 cores in 3 months, not 2 on 3.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 03/08/2014 02:55 pm
Shotwell said just months ago that they plan to have 18 cores/year by mid 2014 and 24 cores/year by the end of the year. Is this discussion based purely on disbelieving her or is there some new information?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ric Capucho on 03/08/2014 03:37 pm

Shotwell said just months ago that they plan to have 18 cores/year by mid 2014 and 24 cores/year by the end of the year. Is this discussion based purely on disbelieving her or is there some new information?

No, this discussion is based purely on believing (1) the backlog of payloads (2) the stated launch schedule, and (3) the launch rate that we've seen so far. I personally don't think the rate of core production is the bottleneck; it's range availability, IMHO.

We shall see.

TW
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: jwade on 03/08/2014 03:48 pm
If you believe other posts on these threads http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30821.390. Then the F9R tank was actually the falcon 9 1.1 structural qualification test tank that was returned to Hawthorn to be fitted with an octoweb, engines, etc.   if you are looking at core production rate, this core probably does not count since the work required to repurpose was presumably much less than to build from scratch.   
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 03/08/2014 04:09 pm
If you believe other posts on these threads http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30821.390. Then the F9R tank was actually the falcon 9 1.1 structural qualification test tank that was returned to Hawthorn to be fitted with an octoweb, engines, etc. 

I believe that was just speculation - but your link does not point to a post discussing it, so my memory might be fuzzy.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 03/08/2014 04:16 pm

Shotwell said just months ago that they plan to have 18 cores/year by mid 2014 and 24 cores/year by the end of the year. Is this discussion based purely on disbelieving her or is there some new information?

No, this discussion is based purely on believing (1) the backlog of payloads (2) the stated launch schedule, and (3) the launch rate that we've seen so far. I personally don't think the rate of core production is the bottleneck; it's range availability, IMHO.

We shall see.

TW

There seems to be a lot of speculation as to whether they even intend to build a core a month. Going by Shotwell's statements they do and they always planned for there to be a long gap between Thaicom and CRS-3. Furthermore, they also planned to ramp up their launch rate after CRS-3 and ramp up production.

This alone answers a great deal of the questions brought up here. Their bottleneck was upgrades to Dragon.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Karloss12 on 03/08/2014 04:42 pm

Shotwell said just months ago that they plan to have 18 cores/year by mid 2014 and 24 cores/year by the end of the year. Is this discussion based purely on disbelieving her or is there some new information?

No, this discussion is based purely on believing (1) the backlog of payloads (2) the stated launch schedule, and (3) the launch rate that we've seen so far. I personally don't think the rate of core production is the bottleneck; it's range availability, IMHO.

We shall see.

TW

There seems to be a lot of speculation as to whether they even intend to build a core a month. Going by Shotwell's statements they do and they always planned for there to be a long gap between Thaicom and CRS-3. Furthermore, they also planned to ramp up their launch rate after CRS-3 and ramp up production.

This alone answers a great deal of the questions brought up here. Their bottleneck was upgrades to Dragon.

Is Shotmell's 18 cores per year leaving the workshop or 18 cores per year arriving at the launch site?

I estimate it 18 cores per year arriving at the launch site would be achievable, for a SpaceX that has mastered re-usability in two years.  It also sounds like over optimistic PR at the present.

As stated above, I think with re-usability 18 cores per year from the workshop is more than enough, even with the greater number of customers having access to space because of any eventual lower launch costs.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 03/08/2014 06:01 pm

Shotwell said just months ago that they plan to have 18 cores/year by mid 2014 and 24 cores/year by the end of the year. Is this discussion based purely on disbelieving her or is there some new information?

No, this discussion is based purely on believing (1) the backlog of payloads (2) the stated launch schedule, and (3) the launch rate that we've seen so far. I personally don't think the rate of core production is the bottleneck; it's range availability, IMHO.

We shall see.

TW

There seems to be a lot of speculation as to whether they even intend to build a core a month. Going by Shotwell's statements they do and they always planned for there to be a long gap between Thaicom and CRS-3. Furthermore, they also planned to ramp up their launch rate after CRS-3 and ramp up production.

This alone answers a great deal of the questions brought up here. Their bottleneck was upgrades to Dragon.

Is Shotmell's 18 cores per year leaving the workshop or 18 cores per year arriving at the launch site?

I estimate it 18 cores per year arriving at the launch site would be achievable, for a SpaceX that has mastered re-usability in two years.  It also sounds like over optimistic PR at the present.

As stated above, I think with re-usability 18 cores per year from the workshop is more than enough, even with the greater number of customers having access to space because of any eventual lower launch costs.

She said 24 cores/year by the end of 2014. You have answered my question. You simply disbelieve her. Given the choice between speculation based on your thoughts and the forward-looking statements from the president of the corporation in question, I think it may be best to go by the president. There may be some schedule slip, but there certainly hasn't been any reason to simply dismiss their plans and invent new ones for them.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 03/08/2014 07:33 pm

This alone answers a great deal of the questions brought up here. Their bottleneck was upgrades to Dragon.

There are others
karl is closer to the truth than Shotwell.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 03/08/2014 08:09 pm
I'll amend what I said with a more complete list.

Confirmed reasoning:

SES-8:

1) Upgrades and fixes to the second stage restart
2) Launch aborts and launch infrastructure upgrades

Thaicom-6:

1) Issues with the fairing

CRS-3:

1) Cygnus schedule
2) Dragon upgrades
3) Transportation delays due to weather
4) Dragon landing requirements

Each of the above has been confirmed by the company. Missing from all these reports over the months are any references to production or testing. In fact, company statements have consistently confirmed a 1/month production rate multiple times since last summer.  One is free to assume these are all lies, but without evidence, it doesn't usefully add to the discussion.

I'll add that the cores arrived at the Cape before 2/10/2014.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 03/08/2014 08:13 pm

They are supposed to be churning the stages out at a rate of one per month, but perhaps they are actually counting upper and lower stages separately - since they are only rolling falcons out at about once every 2 months!

At that rate, if they were to aim for a FH launch (or even a 'hardware on launch site') this year, taking 3+1 cores/stages out of the F9 production flow for FH would mean they would only have enough falcon 9.1's for 4 or 5 launches, which would cover the cargo flights for Nasa, but not much else.

Is there any evidence that SpaceX can produce cores at a rate of more than one per ~60 days, or is there some hard-cap in the production flow, and if so, what is that restriction, and how and when will they be able to overcome that?



I think you nailed it... its not ramping up as predicted..  at this rate FH will be a no show, no wonder its delayed another year.

You cannot rate the real capacity of the core production based on the rate of cores rolling out.

No informations about the production system (f.e where the bottle necks are), about the actual size of the internal buffers, about reworks, etc. --> no prediction possible
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 03/09/2014 04:15 am
What constitutes a 'core'?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 03/09/2014 05:07 am
What constitutes a 'core'?

A first stage. Or FH booster.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Roy_H on 03/09/2014 05:09 am
What constitutes a 'core'?

Falcon 9 has 2 cores, first and second stage. FH has 4.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 03/09/2014 12:18 pm
What constitutes a 'core'?

Falcon 9 has 2 cores, first and second stage. FH has 4.

Strange, but that seems to fit what we see in reallity
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: WHAP on 03/09/2014 12:44 pm

What constitutes a 'core'?

Falcon 9 has 2 cores, first and second stage. FH has 4.

When the AF talks about cores for EELV, they're not counting upper stages.   "Core" has historically meant just the booster.  SpaceX is free to do what they want, but if they're going to count every stage as a core, why not just call them "stages"?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Roy_H on 03/09/2014 05:14 pm

What constitutes a 'core'?

Falcon 9 has 2 cores, first and second stage. FH has 4.

When the AF talks about cores for EELV, they're not counting upper stages.   "Core" has historically meant just the booster.  SpaceX is free to do what they want, but if they're going to count every stage as a core, why not just call them "stages"?

If you just refer to them as stages how would you differentiate the two boosters on the FH?

And you are right about "historically" or tradition. But from SpaceX POV manufacturing the upper stage is the same as the first except it is shorter and uses only one engine. In the more traditional rocket the upper stage is completely different, and often manufactured by a different supplier.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: baldusi on 03/09/2014 07:54 pm
Nope. I'm pretty sure they mean first stages. Because in fact they refer to cores. And that's the first stage. The core stage has nine times the propulsion work, like seven times the tank and all the rest of things.
Btw, they quote 40 cores for 10 F9 plus 10 FH per year. If they also meant uper stages that would be 60 stages per year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: guckyfan on 03/09/2014 08:00 pm
Didn't they mention number of Merlin engines too? I seem to recall that the number of Merlins would match 40 first stages/cores.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 03/09/2014 08:40 pm
Nope. I'm pretty sure they mean first stages. Because in fact they refer to cores. And that's the first stage. The core stage has nine times the propulsion work, like seven times the tank and all the rest of things.
Btw, they quote 40 cores for 10 F9 plus 10 FH per year. If they also meant uper stages that would be 60 stages per year.

Yes, a "core" is a first stage/booster. NOT an upper stage.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: go4mars on 03/09/2014 08:50 pm
Yes.  I don't have a link, but remember the next breath was 10 FH and 10 F9 (the 40 cores).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Roy_H on 03/09/2014 09:44 pm
Nope. I'm pretty sure they mean first stages. Because in fact they refer to cores. And that's the first stage. The core stage has nine times the propulsion work, like seven times the tank and all the rest of things.
Btw, they quote 40 cores for 10 F9 plus 10 FH per year. If they also meant uper stages that would be 60 stages per year.

I stand corrected. I was so sure that quote was for 10 F9s and 5 FHs. I guess I just couldn't imagine a market requiring equal numbers of Falcon Heavies.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Zardar on 03/10/2014 08:50 am

They are supposed to be churning the stages out at a rate of one per month, but perhaps they are actually counting upper and lower stages separately - since they are only rolling falcons out at about once every 2 months!

At that rate, if they were to aim for a FH launch (or even a 'hardware on launch site') this year, taking 3+1 cores/stages out of the F9 production flow for FH would mean they would only have enough falcon 9.1's for 4 or 5 launches, which would cover the cargo flights for Nasa, but not much else.

Is there any evidence that SpaceX can produce cores at a rate of more than one per ~60 days, or is there some hard-cap in the production flow, and if so, what is that restriction, and how and when will they be able to overcome that?



I think you nailed it... its not ramping up as predicted..  at this rate FH will be a no show, no wonder its delayed another year.

You cannot rate the real capacity of the core production based on the rate of cores rolling out.

No informations about the production system (f.e where the bottle necks are), about the actual size of the internal buffers, about reworks, etc. --> no prediction possible

The few photos we have seen of the 'end of the falcon production line' in the hawthorn factory usually show 3 falcon first stages, (sometimes a fourth going through the paint shop also).
Since a 1st stage leaves the factory every 2 months or so, that possibly means that those "3" stages are in 'final assembly' for up to six months, (not including the initial rolling and welding of the tanks panels and stringers into the 'tubes')
Or are the stringers and ribs assembled inside the tanks after the barrels are welded together, which might be a slow, awkward process, explaining the 6 months?

In any case, as interesting as the spacex manufacturing photos are, I would love to see a flow more like the Covair/Atlas production setup from the 50's/60's, where according to wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SM-65_Atlas (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SM-65_Atlas)) , they manufactured 350 rockets in about 6 years, which is more than one a week.....
(yes, I know it was a smaller rocket, and it used pressure stabilized stainless steel tankage, but it still was an impressive operation...)

Atlas production photos, ~late 1950's:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sdasmarchives/8126130760/in/photostream/ (http://www.flickr.com/photos/sdasmarchives/8126130760/in/photostream/)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sdasmarchives/5018472213/in/photostream/ (http://www.flickr.com/photos/sdasmarchives/5018472213/in/photostream/)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sdasmarchives/5018472257/in/photostream/ (http://www.flickr.com/photos/sdasmarchives/5018472257/in/photostream/)


Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: baldusi on 03/10/2014 01:36 pm
Falcon 9 v1.1 uses milled in ribs (like hexapanels). The stringer and ailerons construction was deprecated.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: daver on 03/11/2014 07:43 pm
Sounds like SpaceX is still planning on 10 launches this year.    However it will be challenging.   :)


I voted 9 total.


https://twitter.com/StephenClark1/statuses/443479109969010688 (https://twitter.com/StephenClark1/statuses/443479109969010688)

Stephen Clark
‏@StephenClark1
Barry Matsumori of SpaceX: 9 more launches on Falcon 9 manifest this year. Big challenge is executing the manifest.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 03/11/2014 07:57 pm
Confirmation of 10 launches now planned in 2014, https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/443478353773744128 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/443478353773744128)

Quote
@pbdes: SpaceX's Matsumori: We're aiming for 9 more Falcon 9 launches this year, starting with Sunday's CRS mission for Nasa.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: StephenB on 03/11/2014 08:06 pm
Confirmation of 10 launches now planned in 2014, https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/443478353773744128 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/443478353773744128)

Nice. Now my vote of 9 launches looks less like a wild fantasy and more like a voice of moderation.  :D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 03/11/2014 09:05 pm
Confirmation of 10 launches now planned in 2014, https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/443478353773744128 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/443478353773744128)

Quote
@pbdes: SpaceX's Matsumori: We're aiming for 9 more Falcon 9 launches this year, starting with Sunday's CRS mission for Nasa.

Presumably one of them is that in-flight abort - so it wouldn't count against the orbital mission number that this poll is about.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 03/11/2014 09:27 pm

The few photos we have seen of the 'end of the falcon production line' in the hawthorn factory usually show 3 falcon first stages, (sometimes a fourth going through the paint shop also).
Since a 1st stage leaves the factory every 2 months or so, that possibly means that those "3" stages are in 'final assembly' for up to six months, (not including the initial rolling and welding of the tanks panels and stringers into the 'tubes')
Or are the stringers and ribs assembled inside the tanks after the barrels are welded together, which might be a slow, awkward process, explaining the 6 months?

In any case, as interesting as the spacex manufacturing photos are, I would love to see a flow more like the Covair/Atlas production setup from the 50's/60's, where according to wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SM-65_Atlas (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SM-65_Atlas)) , they manufactured 350 rockets in about 6 years, which is more than one a week.....
(yes, I know it was a smaller rocket, and it used pressure stabilized stainless steel tankage, but it still was an impressive operation...)

Atlas production photos, ~late 1950's:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sdasmarchives/8126130760/in/photostream/ (http://www.flickr.com/photos/sdasmarchives/8126130760/in/photostream/)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sdasmarchives/5018472213/in/photostream/ (http://www.flickr.com/photos/sdasmarchives/5018472213/in/photostream/)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sdasmarchives/5018472257/in/photostream/ (http://www.flickr.com/photos/sdasmarchives/5018472257/in/photostream/)

I mentioned you cannot make theese ratings, you could be easy wrong with it.

For example: your compared SpaceX production with Covair/Atlas. But if you see the old pictures, this is not a production line like SpaceX. The rockets are in very different status, mixed. I suppose, all of them rested in the same place until completition. (But this is not important hier.)

Capacity of it: There are ca. 12 standings for this assembly. If the takt time is little bit less than one week, the lead time for assembliing a rocket is ca. 10 weeks. That's why you see more rockets and not because this is "flowing" better than at SpaceX.

SpaceX says the capacity of the line is 40 cores / year, that means, takt time is a little bit more than 1 week. There are four standings. This means, lead time should be appr. 5 weeks on this assembly part. That's why they have less rocket in the assembly.

Less output as planned: It could be, that the line has been "stopped" - f.e. because of changes, rework, etc. We don't know. In this case it should have no effect on the real capacity of this line in the future. It could easy happen, that after completing the reworks, they "restart the line" and produce with the planned takt time.

And there are other possibilities - all of them are speculation.

That's why I sad: We don't have enough information about the situation, we cannot rate the real capacity.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: llanitedave on 03/12/2014 01:14 am
Confirmation of 10 launches now planned in 2014, https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/443478353773744128 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/443478353773744128)

Quote
@pbdes: SpaceX's Matsumori: We're aiming for 9 more Falcon 9 launches this year, starting with Sunday's CRS mission for Nasa.

I'm sticking with 8 total.  Weather and range issues are liable to cause some pushback, even without rocket glitches

Hope I'm wrong, though -- as an underestimate, that is.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 03/12/2014 07:21 am
Confirmation of 10 launches now planned in 2014, https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/443478353773744128 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/443478353773744128)

Quote
@pbdes: SpaceX's Matsumori: We're aiming for 9 more Falcon 9 launches this year, starting with Sunday's CRS mission for Nasa.

I'm sticking with 8 total.  Weather and range issues are liable to cause some pushback, even without rocket glitches

Hope I'm wrong, though -- as an underestimate, that is.
Poll's closed so you're stuck with your choice.  FWIW I voted 8 as well (chickened out of voting 10 when it came to the post button  :)  ) and now think that I'll be disappointed - in a good way.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: vapour_nudge on 03/12/2014 07:31 am
I still think it is going to be 7. Those ISS schedules can move to the right very easily. So many variables. if they do get to 10 they would have launched more often than Atlas V which is the US leader at 8 last year and probably 9 this year
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MikeAtkinson on 03/12/2014 12:30 pm
From Twitter

Quote
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  17h
SpaceX's Matsumori: We're aiming for 9 more Falcon 9 launches this year, starting with Sunday's CRS mission for Nasa.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: baldusi on 03/12/2014 01:52 pm
I vote 8 and stated I expected 7, and nothing has changed my estimation. Even if they solve their side of the ops, it's all about the payloads that make things difficult. If they had dual hangar and could swap payloads at wish, I guess they could push it. But considering that they have to do at least one abort test on the pad (unless they somehow manage to do it on LC-39A and inflight goes to next year), I'm still sticking to 7. And I'm being generous.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 03/12/2014 03:06 pm
We are at half of March. Just look as with each quarter amount of "aiming at X launches" goes smaller and smaller. :P

...and with latest news, my vote (seven) looks incerasingly unlikely. :(
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ric Capucho on 03/14/2014 03:05 pm
I think we can realistically drop a flight out of 2014 based on the recent scrub. Jokes aside, this is looking like one flight in Q1.

Ric
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: baldusi on 03/14/2014 03:13 pm
The interesting part is that it appears to be a payload (Dragon) or integration issue. And there lays the lesson on the difficulty of doing this again and again.
The factory and LV processing is a necessary condition. But payloads and integration are the main source of  delays for world class companies like ULA or Arianespace.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 03/14/2014 03:17 pm
The interesting part is that it appears to be a payload (Dragon) or integration issue. And there lays the lesson on the difficulty of doing this again and again.
The factory and LV processing is a necessary condition. But payloads and integration are the main source of  delays for world class companies like ULA or Arianespace.

Nod.

And this argues that to keep high launch rates it is necessary to shuffle... have multiple payloads in work and be able to reorder as needed.  That requires multiple processing facilities or at least a facility with the space for several payload integration operations at once.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Danderman on 03/14/2014 03:20 pm
Six.

I thought I was being wildly optimistic at 6,  and I still do.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 03/14/2014 03:45 pm

Nod.

And this argues that to keep high launch rates it is necessary to shuffle... have multiple payloads in work and be able to reorder as needed.  That requires multiple processing facilities or at least a facility with the space for several payload integration operations at once.

Not always possible, at some point, the LV (upperstage) becomes specific to  a payload.   They aren't interchangeable. 

And spacecraft contractors aren't going to sent a spacecraft down early to process it and wait for an opening. That puts risk to the spacecraft and increases cost by having manpower deployed to stay with the spacecraft.
Also, there is equipment for the spacecraft that has be installed at the hangar and then the pad.
Also, the analytic integration is done serially.  Spacex doesnt have the people to have that many payloads in the same point of the integration cycle.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: watermod on 03/14/2014 04:06 pm
Question about the rocket and payload preparation workforce and serial processing.   How common are the workers within the processing scheme?   In particular are they different individuals/teams coming in for each feature or do the individuals have many roles.
I was asking from the point of view of somebody who once did System Integration and Test when digital cellular was invented.   We had  many test bed with different releases and varying hardware and software.   Teams and individuals  were more feature than testbed specific so would float  between test  systems rather  then go idle when serial issues appeared.  This kept productivity high.

So if the people are not the same... its only a facility  cost to have more than one product's assembly in progress.  If that's the  case it might pay to have more than one rocket being integrated at once  with the only serial dependence being while one rocket was actually on the launchpad.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 03/14/2014 04:27 pm
How common are the workers within the processing scheme? 


The workers for the spacecraft are from the spacecraft contractor and they are TDY from their home plant.  Also, it is not just the workers, all the EGSE, MGSE, PGSE (propellant load), tools, office equipment, etc  must be shipped in from the home plant. Have seen up to two aircraft and 8 trucks for a EELV comsat.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 03/14/2014 04:31 pm
Question about the rocket and payload preparation workforce and serial processing.   How common are the workers within the processing scheme?   In particular are they different individuals/teams coming in for each feature or do the individuals have many roles.
I was asking from the point of view of somebody who once did System Integration and Test when digital cellular was invented.   We had  many test bed with different releases and varying hardware and software.   Teams and individuals  were more feature than testbed specific so would float  between test  systems rather  then go idle when serial issues appeared.  This kept productivity high.

So if the people are not the same... its only a facility  cost to have more than one product's assembly in progress.  If that's the  case it might pay to have more than one rocket being integrated at once  with the only serial dependence being while one rocket was actually on the launchpad.


for launch vehicles.  Some group workers by electrical, mechanical, fluid/prop, test, etc.  Others group by stages and yet others by systems.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AJW on 03/14/2014 04:50 pm
How much of this delay could be mitigated with a second PF and strongback at the same pad?   Delays are almost a given, but to have one delay cascade the entire manifest increases costs for all involved.  What are the key issues with developing additional PFs for the same pad vs. developing additional pads.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 03/14/2014 04:56 pm
How much of this delay could be mitigated with a second PF and strongback at the same pad?   Delays are almost a given, but to have one delay cascade the entire manifest increases costs for all involved.  What are the key issues with developing additional PFs for the same pad vs. developing additional pads.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571.msg1171966#msg1171966

Delta II and Atlas II had dual pads for all of the 90's and most of the 00's.  A delay on one pad didn't mean the next one could step up.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 03/14/2014 07:03 pm

Nod.

And this argues that to keep high launch rates it is necessary to shuffle... have multiple payloads in work and be able to reorder as needed.  That requires multiple processing facilities or at least a facility with the space for several payload integration operations at once.

Not always possible, at some point, the LV (upperstage) becomes specific to  a payload.   They aren't interchangeable. 

And spacecraft contractors aren't going to sent a spacecraft down early to process it and wait for an opening. That puts risk to the spacecraft and increases cost by having manpower deployed to stay with the spacecraft.
Also, there is equipment for the spacecraft that has be installed at the hangar and then the pad.
Also, the analytic integration is done serially.  Spacex doesnt have the people to have that many payloads in the same point of the integration cycle.

Not disagreeing with any of the above, and this veers off topic but all of this has to change if launch rates in the hundreds or thousands are ever going to come to pass. Yes, analogies with other transport modes are flawed because Space is Hard, but this "8 truckloads and a standing army" per payload scenario is not the case for other modes, except for very specialized payloads.

A container is a container. If your container doesn't make the cutoff, the ship sails without it and you go on the next ship. Or the next wellcar if you were taking rail, or the next stake trailer if you were taking road.

Someday. Not today not this year but someday, this all has to change to be more like other modes. Or else space will always be hard.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Llian Rhydderch on 03/14/2014 11:19 pm

Nod.

And this argues that to keep high launch rates it is necessary to shuffle... have multiple payloads in work and be able to reorder as needed.  That requires multiple processing facilities or at least a facility with the space for several payload integration operations at once.

Not always possible, at some point, the LV (upperstage) becomes specific to  a payload.   They aren't interchangeable. 

And spacecraft contractors aren't going to sent a spacecraft down early to process it and wait for an opening. That puts risk to the spacecraft and increases cost by having manpower deployed to stay with the spacecraft.
Also, there is equipment for the spacecraft that has be installed at the hangar and then the pad.
Also, the analytic integration is done serially.  Spacex doesnt have the people to have that many payloads in the same point of the integration cycle.

Not disagreeing with any of the above, and this veers off topic but all of this has to change if launch rates in the hundreds or thousands are ever going to come to pass. Yes, analogies with other transport modes are flawed because Space is Hard, but this "8 truckloads and a standing army" per payload scenario is not the case for other modes, except for very specialized payloads.

A container is a container. If your container doesn't make the cutoff, the ship sails without it and you go on the next ship. Or the next wellcar if you were taking rail, or the next stake trailer if you were taking road.

Someday. Not today not this year but someday, this all has to change to be more like other modes. Or else space will always be hard.

Good point, Lar.

Space logistics, and the ground logistics to support some notional high-launch rate of SpaceX rockets, would be a good topic for a new thread sometime.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lurker Steve on 03/14/2014 11:39 pm
Logistics is completely different from passenger transport.
When we ship something, we make arrangements with a logistics company. They bring the tractor trailer to our dock, and it sits there until the equipment gets loaded. We have had the driver wait for multiple days in the parking lot, waiting for the equipment to be ready to be loaded onto his truck. You pay for the guy to sit idle in his truck, but that truck isn't leaving without a load.
 
I had the wonderful opportunity to be stranded at the Frankfort airport when the security folks decided to take a day off (1 day strike). Because the rest of the airline schedule would have been even more screwed if those planes didn't leave for their next destination, many planes flew empty that day. Yes, my 747 flew back to the US without most of it's passengers because no one made it thru security that day.
Most space launches will continue to be cargo and com sats. There is no leaving the launch pad without it's cargo. Without the cargo, the LV isn't paid for. I don't care how much launch costs come down, they still need to be paid for.
 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 03/15/2014 04:09 am
Most logistics is containers. And container ships sail on schedule. Container doublestack trains run on schedule. This works because the volume of stuff being shipped is large enough that any individual shipment is noise in the scheme of things.

Yes, your driver waited for your load. But if it went in a container, or the belly of a commercial jet to go overseas, THEY didn't wait. They took what loads were there and went. Some containers are more than just empty boxes, they are customised for their load. But they still are part of a great tide.

And that is exactly my point. As long as space is this way, that every payload is an individual thing that has to go to an individual place and be fully self contained, because there is no fedex and office supply place around the corner, then Space will remain Hard.

But I think there will come a day when most payloads will be bulk commodities or packaged shipments that do not require standing armies. Then, no matter that launching may still be hard, and there may be much deltaV to find and expend, then space will not be hard. It will be routine.

I want to see that day. I may not. I may be too old. Exploration is exciting but I live for exploitation. For when it is boring for good reason.

But this is off topic. I'll stop.

So I'm bumming that SpaceX gets only one in this quarter. This is the year they have to up the pace or else.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: chalz on 03/15/2014 07:57 am
How long before we know if one or both Asiasat goes to another launcher?

If the Orbcomm rocket has just gone for testing the decision must surely have been made about what payload the next core will carry. According to the Asiasat thread
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27985.msg860540#msg860540
 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27985.msg860540#msg860540)they have reserve launch providers available and don't like waiting too long. Fortunate for SpaceX that Sea Launch are returning to flight after an accident and Proton is booked pretty solid this year. Maybe Asiasat will have to put up with the delay, perhaps with a discount price instead?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jcc on 03/15/2014 02:48 pm
CRS-3 is pushed back but that is not the only reason their 2014 launches may be reduced. A major factor is apparently core production, they are not keeping up. Elon indicated that the FH flight will move to 2015, and the main reason for that is the inability to produce the cores sooner and keep up with their F9 manifest.

That nonsense about not being able to transport the CRS-3 vehicle because of the snow is just a symptom, not the root cause. The only way that can do monthly launches or better is to have a stock of cores in McGregor waiting to be tested, testing  and waiting to ship, and should be at the Cape or Vandy a couple of months before launch, which means at least 2 vehicles at the launch site before one launches.

They will get there, but they are not there yet.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cuddihy on 03/15/2014 03:51 pm
Jcc, concur. Whatever their plans, they are clearly not in a mass-production mode. The fact that it is still "news" when a core travels to Mcgregor tells it.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/15/2014 05:56 pm
Jcc, concur. Whatever their plans, they are clearly not in a mass-production mode. The fact that it is still "news" when a core travels to Mcgregor tells it.
I think it's only news to us.

But anyway, this is all why I voted 6 flights (almost voted 5). It takes time to ramp up. Also concur with JCC.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: gregpet on 03/16/2014 12:59 am
Jcc, concur. Whatever their plans, they are clearly not in a mass-production mode. The fact that it is still "news" when a core travels to Mcgregor tells it.

If SpaceX believes that reuse is going to happen sooner rather than later (and legs on CRS-3 would seem to support that belief), I doubt you will ever see SpaceX push for mass-production of 1st stage cores.

I looked at the SpaceX factory on Google maps -- it's really not that big.  I have never read anything about SpaceX increasing the size of their current factory (outside of potentially building future (larger) rockets in Boca Chica).  Compare SpaceX's factory to Tesla's factory.  Now that is a company looking at mass production...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Owlon on 03/16/2014 02:12 am
Jcc, concur. Whatever their plans, they are clearly not in a mass-production mode. The fact that it is still "news" when a core travels to Mcgregor tells it.

If SpaceX believes that reuse is going to happen sooner rather than later (and legs on CRS-3 would seem to support that belief), I doubt you will ever see SpaceX push for mass-production of 1st stage cores.

I looked at the SpaceX factory on Google maps -- it's really not that big.  I have never read anything about SpaceX increasing the size of their current factory (outside of potentially building future (larger) rockets in Boca Chica).  Compare SpaceX's factory to Tesla's factory.  Now that is a company looking at mass production...

They say the factory is already sized for 40 cores/year, though.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/16/2014 03:18 am
They may need 4 shifts to reach 40 cores per year. I think they're still gearing up to 2 shifts right now. And if you include Falcon Heavy on the pad toward the end of this year and the in-flight abort and F9R-dev1 plus 6 orbital flights, then they'll utilize 11 cores this year. Plus they must have a lot of Dragon work going on.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: spectre9 on 03/16/2014 07:06 am
Been counting down the days to the 16th.

Tune in for webcast. Nothing.

This is why I haven't been posting. Absolutely bored to tears by the progress of everything.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: QuantumG on 03/16/2014 08:16 am
Absolutely bored to tears by the progress of everything.

Real life is like that.. maybe ya need to take up a second hobby? Learn to knit? Get a part time job?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: spectre9 on 03/16/2014 09:17 am
Absolutely bored to tears by the progress of everything.

Real life is like that.. maybe ya need to take up a second hobby? Learn to knit? Get a part time job?

I'm just not excited about space right now like I was a few years ago. I feel bad for myself.

Perhaps I need to watch more spacevidcast  :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: douglas100 on 03/16/2014 01:07 pm
You need patience in this game. As Jim said in a recent post, "delays are part of the landscape." And as Musk said himself during the F1 failures "I'm learning patience these days."

If technological civilization survives on this planet, I believe spaceflight will continue into the indefinite future. In that context a delay of a few weeks doesn't amount to much, don't you think?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 03/16/2014 10:57 pm
Jcc, concur. Whatever their plans, they are clearly not in a mass-production mode. The fact that it is still "news" when a core travels to Mcgregor tells it.

If SpaceX believes that reuse is going to happen sooner rather than later (and legs on CRS-3 would seem to support that belief), I doubt you will ever see SpaceX push for mass-production of 1st stage cores.

I looked at the SpaceX factory on Google maps -- it's really not that big.  I have never read anything about SpaceX increasing the size of their current factory (outside of potentially building future (larger) rockets in Boca Chica).  Compare SpaceX's factory to Tesla's factory.  Now that is a company looking at mass production...

They say the factory is already sized for 40 cores/year, though.

They say a lot of things  ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 03/17/2014 03:49 am
Here is what Musk & Shotwell say about core production in the latest issue of Aviation Week & Space:
Quote
"Within a year we need get it from what it is right now, which is about a rocket core every four weeks, to a rocket core every two weeks," Musk says.

By the end of 2015, says SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, the company plans to ratchet up production to 40 cores per year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jcc on 03/17/2014 09:04 am
Here is what Musk & Shotwell say about core production in the latest issue of Aviation Week & Space:
Quote
"Within a year we need get it from what it is right now, which is about a rocket core every four weeks, to a rocket core every two weeks," Musk says.

By the end of 2015, says SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, the company plans to ratchet up production to 40 cores per year.

I am pretty sure that it takes more than 4 weeks to build a core, so they need to have several in production at the same time to have 1 every 4 weeks. Maybe they have a few that are almost done, and will keep to the 1 a month average, but the only metric we have are the "louder than normal" tests at McGregor, and that is happening less frequently, not enough to make 12 launches this year, maybe only 6.

If testing were the bottleneck, then the new FH test stand will help, in addition to the old one. Is the FH test stand operational yet?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: guckyfan on 03/17/2014 09:19 am

If testing were the bottleneck, then the new FH test stand will help, in addition to the old one. Is the FH test stand operational yet?

I would like to know that, too. If it is operational we probably won't have "louder than normal" tests. With the possible excemption of FH-tests. It dampens noise a lot. But I agree this is likely not the reason why we don't hear of tests at the moment.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 03/19/2014 02:01 am
Here is what Musk & Shotwell say about core production in the latest issue of Aviation Week & Space:
Quote
"Within a year we need get it from what it is right now, which is about a rocket core every four weeks, to a rocket core every two weeks," Musk says.

By the end of 2015, says SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, the company plans to ratchet up production to 40 cores per year.

I am pretty sure that it takes more than 4 weeks to build a core, so they need to have several in production at the same time to have 1 every 4 weeks. Maybe they have a few that are almost done, and will keep to the 1 a month average, but the only metric we have are the "louder than normal" tests at McGregor, and that is happening less frequently, not enough to make 12 launches this year, maybe only 6.

If testing were the bottleneck, then the new FH test stand will help, in addition to the old one. Is the FH test stand operational yet?

So you know more about core production rates that Elon or Gwynne?  Pray tell how in light of the direct quotes above?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ric Capucho on 03/19/2014 07:07 am
I'm guessing a "core every four weeks" is more of a measure of their productive capabilities rather than a production count. Otherwise there'd be a number of completed cores lying idle in their car park. And I would hazard a further guess that both Elon and Gwyneth would want confidence of this capability before quoting it publically. No one at their level is anything other than picky about facts. It's one of the reasons they get to such levels.

I've seen a few shop floor photos showing three cores side by side, so I'm wondering if the duration of each core build is more like twelve weeks.

There are two ways to double the production capabilities: either half the production duration (tricky if they want man-rating) or double the number of cores they work on at any time. My guess is it'll require a mixture of both approaches.

I guessed four times above, so make of this what you will.

TW
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/19/2014 11:26 am
Falcon Heavy (3), F9R-dev1, in-flight abort vehicle, 6 orbital flights this year. That's a total of 11 cores that will be introduced this year. That's consistent with roughly a 4 week per core rate.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dcporter on 03/19/2014 12:00 pm
Here is what Musk & Shotwell say about core production in the latest issue of Aviation Week & Space:
Quote
"Within a year we need get it from what it is right now, which is about a rocket core every four weeks, to a rocket core every two weeks," Musk says.

By the end of 2015, says SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, the company plans to ratchet up production to 40 cores per year.

I am pretty sure that it takes more than 4 weeks to build a core, so they need to have several in production at the same time to have 1 every 4 weeks. Maybe they have a few that are almost done, and will keep to the 1 a month average, but the only metric we have are the "louder than normal" tests at McGregor, and that is happening less frequently, not enough to make 12 launches this year, maybe only 6.

If testing were the bottleneck, then the new FH test stand will help, in addition to the old one. Is the FH test stand operational yet?

So you know more about core production rates that Elon or Gwynne?  Pray tell how in light of the direct quotes above?

"A rocket leaves the factory every four weeks" is not the same as "it takes four weeks to build one rocket" ::)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: wannamoonbase on 03/19/2014 12:09 pm
Falcon Heavy (3), F9R-dev1, in-flight abort vehicle, 6 orbital flights this year. That's a total of 11 cores that will be introduced this year. That's consistent with roughly a 4 week per core rate.

With paying customers waiting it's hard to imagine using the resources for 3 cores for a FH any sooner than needed. 

Spacex has a very large backlog and they need to start racking up some consistent launches.  3 months into 2014 and 1 launch to date.  I'm rooting for them but they have yet to prove they can build and fly consistently.  The pace at the end of 2014 not the start is what I'll be watching.

Edit: If they achieve 8-10 launches and land a single core back on land this year then it would be a wildly successful year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/19/2014 02:25 pm
They also have paying customers waiting for Falcon Heavy. A Falcon Heavy demo would allow them to start to compete for much higher revenue launches, including DoD launches (or at least get the ball rolling).

I also don't believe that factory output is really the only limit, here. There is probably a considerable limit in testing and launch prep and payload integration.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 03/19/2014 04:36 pm
They also have paying customers waiting for Falcon Heavy. A Falcon Heavy demo would allow them to start to compete for much higher revenue launches, including DoD launches (or at least get the ball rolling).

I also don't believe that factory output is really the only limit, here. There is probably a considerable limit in testing and launch prep and payload integration.

They also have two pads with nothing being launched ::)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/19/2014 05:02 pm
They also have paying customers waiting for Falcon Heavy. A Falcon Heavy demo would allow them to start to compete for much higher revenue launches, including DoD launches (or at least get the ball rolling).

I also don't believe that factory output is really the only limit, here. There is probably a considerable limit in testing and launch prep and payload integration.

They also have two pads with nothing being launched ::)
::)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: CraigLieb on 03/19/2014 05:50 pm

"A rocket leaves the factory every four weeks" is not the same as "it takes four weeks to build one rocket" ::)

Speculation: work products move, or assembly crews move every 4 weeks to next work package
Every 4 weeks, a new stage finishes assembly and a new one starts final assembly.
Whole process can take 16 Weeks for final assembly sub-assembly
Stations not shown which extend total time to years.
The move rate gates how often a stage is ready.

In a typical factory, 5 % of time is spent actual advancing production. The rest of time is some form of waste
Waiting on parts, motion, transportation, rework/defects. Getting this move rate down to 2 weeks is a substantial goal.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 03/19/2014 07:50 pm

"A rocket leaves the factory every four weeks" is not the same as "it takes four weeks to build one rocket" ::)

Speculation: work products move, or assembly crews move every 4 weeks to next work package
Every 4 weeks, a new stage finishes assembly and a new one starts final assembly.
Whole process can take 16 Weeks for final assembly sub-assembly
Stations not shown which extend total time to years.
The move rate gates how often a stage is ready.

In a typical factory, 5 % of time is spent actual advancing production. The rest of time is some form of waste
Waiting on parts, motion, transportation, rework/defects. Getting this move rate down to 2 weeks is a substantial goal.

You are on the right track, but I would make other conclusion.


The 5% is a little bit other to understand:
If you look at the timeline of a product in a mass production from the beginning until the end, the time spent with production appr. 5%. Most of the 95% is waiting on stock in some form of a semi-final product.

But this is not a mass production. They have no stock between the stations.
If some of the stations are blocked, the whole "line" is blocked.

If we consider the launch rate since F9 V1.1, the "customer takt time" for the production was really low.
And this low rate was not because of the low capacity of the production. There wasn't any long period when this last step was "starving".
That means: the line was blocked due to the low launch rate.

Why actually the Orbcomm rocket had a delay on transport to McGregor for testing? Who knows...
If I have to guess: the production has been slowed down (blocked) to the rate of the launches - and some late changes made on this core.

And this slowing down is easy to understand.
If the customer takt time is lower then your production rate, you build up stocks.
But rockets are not so easy to stock. (Too big).
And more important are the changes: if you have a new product, and it changes often, high stock rate is dangerous: every issue, changes cause a lot of rework.

I think, SpaceX have chosen this other way: no production for stock, stop the line.

My conclusion: the problem is the launch rate and not the production rate. They have to focus on it.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MP99 on 03/19/2014 07:51 pm

Nod.

And this argues that to keep high launch rates it is necessary to shuffle... have multiple payloads in work and be able to reorder as needed.  That requires multiple processing facilities or at least a facility with the space for several payload integration operations at once.

Not always possible, at some point, the LV (upperstage) becomes specific to  a payload.   They aren't interchangeable. 

And spacecraft contractors aren't going to sent a spacecraft down early to process it and wait for an opening. That puts risk to the spacecraft and increases cost by having manpower deployed to stay with the spacecraft.
Also, there is equipment for the spacecraft that has be installed at the hangar and then the pad.
Also, the analytic integration is done serially.  Spacex doesnt have the people to have that many payloads in the same point of the integration cycle.

A question, though, about minimising disruption to the schedule...

If the was an issue with a payload, would it be possible to retire the u/s associated with that payload, and bring forward the u/s associated with the following payload? This on the assumption that the following payload would launch to it's original schedule, on the core planned for the delayed payload, and it's dedicated u/s.

Then the delayed payload would launch, with it's dedicated u/s, on the core which was planed to follow. IE:-

Original payload flies on following core, with it's dedicated u/s;
Subsequent payload flies on the unused core, with it's dedicated u/s.

Obviously, this adds delay to the payload that has the problem (and may cause grief for payloads later in the schedule), but allows at least one payload to launch on time.

cheers, Martin

Edit: just seen this response to earlier post:-
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571.msg1171966#msg1171966

Delta II and Atlas II had dual pads for all of the 90's and most of the 00's.  A delay on one pad didn't mean the next one could step up.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: mme on 03/19/2014 09:34 pm
...
I think, SpaceX have chosen this other way: no production for stock, stop the line.

My conclusion: the problem is the launch rate and not the production rate. They have to focus on it.

According to Elon Musk, SpaceX is not producing cores as quickly as they need to meet their launch manifest. From nextbigfuture.com March 05, 2014 (http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/03/spacex-falcon-heavy-launch-delayed-to.html):
Quote
“We need to find three additional cores that we could produce, send them through testing and then fly without disrupting our launch manifest,” Musk said in a Feb. 20 interview. “I'm hopeful we'll have Falcon Heavy cores produced approximately around the end of the year. But just to get through test and qualification, I think it's probably going to be sometime early next year when we launch.”

They may have a launch rate problem as well, but I don't think that is what's limiting core production.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 03/20/2014 12:23 am
Here is what Musk & Shotwell say about core production in the latest issue of Aviation Week & Space:
Quote
"Within a year we need get it from what it is right now, which is about a rocket core every four weeks, to a rocket core every two weeks," Musk says.

By the end of 2015, says SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, the company plans to ratchet up production to 40 cores per year.

I am pretty sure that it takes more than 4 weeks to build a core, so they need to have several in production at the same time to have 1 every 4 weeks. Maybe they have a few that are almost done, and will keep to the 1 a month average, but the only metric we have are the "louder than normal" tests at McGregor, and that is happening less frequently, not enough to make 12 launches this year, maybe only 6.

If testing were the bottleneck, then the new FH test stand will help, in addition to the old one. Is the FH test stand operational yet?

So you know more about core production rates that Elon or Gwynne?  Pray tell how in light of the direct quotes above?

"A rocket leaves the factory every four weeks" is not the same as "it takes four weeks to build one rocket" ::)
Semantics  ::)  There's essentially no difference if you need to use them pretty much immediately which is where SpaceX currently is in order to meet their manifest for the year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Owlon on 03/20/2014 12:24 am
...
I think, SpaceX have chosen this other way: no production for stock, stop the line.

My conclusion: the problem is the launch rate and not the production rate. They have to focus on it.

According to Elon Musk, SpaceX is not producing cores as quickly as they need to meet their launch manifest. From nextbigfuture.com March 05, 2014 (http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/03/spacex-falcon-heavy-launch-delayed-to.html):
Quote
“We need to find three additional cores that we could produce, send them through testing and then fly without disrupting our launch manifest,” Musk said in a Feb. 20 interview. “I'm hopeful we'll have Falcon Heavy cores produced approximately around the end of the year. But just to get through test and qualification, I think it's probably going to be sometime early next year when we launch.”

They may have a launch rate problem as well, but I don't think that is what's limiting core production.

But they're still talking about flying 11 times this year, which means they're still expecting to produce ~14 cores by the end of the year. Plus, they should have more partially finished cores in final assembly then than they did at the start of this year due to the ramp up. If they can find the time to produce three extra cores while still launching almost once a month on average for the year*, I'm inclined to say they're producing cores slightly faster than they can launch them.

*this hinges on them having no significant launch slips, which is unlikely at best, but a launch slip causing a backup at the factory reinforces my point .
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dcporter on 03/20/2014 01:14 am
Here is what Musk & Shotwell say about core production in the latest issue of Aviation Week & Space:
Quote
"Within a year we need get it from what it is right now, which is about a rocket core every four weeks, to a rocket core every two weeks," Musk says.

By the end of 2015, says SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, the company plans to ratchet up production to 40 cores per year.

I am pretty sure that it takes more than 4 weeks to build a core, so they need to have several in production at the same time to have 1 every 4 weeks. Maybe they have a few that are almost done, and will keep to the 1 a month average, but the only metric we have are the "louder than normal" tests at McGregor, and that is happening less frequently, not enough to make 12 launches this year, maybe only 6.

If testing were the bottleneck, then the new FH test stand will help, in addition to the old one. Is the FH test stand operational yet?

So you know more about core production rates that Elon or Gwynne?  Pray tell how in light of the direct quotes above?

"A rocket leaves the factory every four weeks" is not the same as "it takes four weeks to build one rocket" ::)
Semantics  ::)  There's essentially no difference if you need to use them pretty much immediately which is where SpaceX currently is in order to meet their manifest for the year.

JCC didn't say anything that contradicted Elon or Gwynne. Rockets can leave the factory every four weeks while having spent much longer than four weeks being built, if more than one is in production at a time, as any counter of beans should know, so no, it's not semantics. JCC didn't say anything like what you said he said.

::)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 03/20/2014 01:49 am

Nod.

And this argues that to keep high launch rates it is necessary to shuffle... have multiple payloads in work and be able to reorder as needed.  That requires multiple processing facilities or at least a facility with the space for several payload integration operations at once.

Not always possible, at some point, the LV (upperstage) becomes specific to  a payload.   They aren't interchangeable. 

And spacecraft contractors aren't going to sent a spacecraft down early to process it and wait for an opening. That puts risk to the spacecraft and increases cost by having manpower deployed to stay with the spacecraft.
Also, there is equipment for the spacecraft that has be installed at the hangar and then the pad.
Also, the analytic integration is done serially.  Spacex doesnt have the people to have that many payloads in the same point of the integration cycle.

Not disagreeing with any of the above, and this veers off topic but all of this has to change if launch rates in the hundreds or thousands are ever going to come to pass. Yes, analogies with other transport modes are flawed because Space is Hard, but this "8 truckloads and a standing army" per payload scenario is not the case for other modes, except for very specialized payloads.

A container is a container. If your container doesn't make the cutoff, the ship sails without it and you go on the next ship. Or the next wellcar if you were taking rail, or the next stake trailer if you were taking road.

Someday. Not today not this year but someday, this all has to change to be more like other modes. Or else space will always be hard.

Good point, Lar.

Space logistics, and the ground logistics to support some notional high-launch rate of SpaceX rockets, would be a good topic for a new thread sometime.

Spacelaunch isn't standard Fedex, it is Fedex Custom Critical.  Not going to happen for at least a decade until bulk cargo is being launched and only if high launch rates are required.  Right now payloads don't need high launch rates.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 03/20/2014 01:50 am
Or else space will always be hard.

Your fear is more likely true than not

A container is a container.

They aren't containers.  They are instruments or vehicles in themselves.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: guckyfan on 03/20/2014 07:07 am

A container is a container.

They aren't containers.  They are instruments or vehicles in themselves.

That's true. And if the DoD wants to have them launched quickly they will have to design them for that need.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 03/20/2014 07:39 am
"A rocket leaves the factory every four weeks" is not the same as "it takes four weeks to build one rocket" ::)
Semantics  ::)  There's essentially no difference if you need to use them pretty much immediately which is where SpaceX currently is in order to meet their manifest for the year.

I once visited an automobile factory.  One car left that factory every minute after spending about 8 hours on the assembly line.  That means that there were about 8 hours * 60 minutes/hour = 480 cars "in the pipeline" at any one time.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jcc on 03/20/2014 09:37 am
Here is what Musk & Shotwell say about core production in the latest issue of Aviation Week & Space:
Quote
"Within a year we need get it from what it is right now, which is about a rocket core every four weeks, to a rocket core every two weeks," Musk says.

By the end of 2015, says SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, the company plans to ratchet up production to 40 cores per year.

I am pretty sure that it takes more than 4 weeks to build a core, so they need to have several in production at the same time to have 1 every 4 weeks. Maybe they have a few that are almost done, and will keep to the 1 a month average, but the only metric we have are the "louder than normal" tests at McGregor, and that is happening less frequently, not enough to make 12 launches this year, maybe only 6.

If testing were the bottleneck, then the new FH test stand will help, in addition to the old one. Is the FH test stand operational yet?

So you know more about core production rates that Elon or Gwynne?  Pray tell how in light of the direct quotes above?

"A rocket leaves the factory every four weeks" is not the same as "it takes four weeks to build one rocket" ::)
Semantics  ::)  There's essentially no difference if you need to use them pretty much immediately which is where SpaceX currently is in order to meet their manifest for the year.

JCC didn't say anything that contradicted Elon or Gwynne. Rockets can leave the factory every four weeks while having spent much longer than four weeks being built, if more than one is in production at a time, as any counter of beans should know, so no, it's not semantics. JCC didn't say anything like what you said he said.

::)

Well put.
Furthermore, while I believe Elon and Gwynne when they say they are operating at a rate of 1 every 4 weeks there may be some difference between operating at that rate and actually shipping a rocket in January, February and March of 2014. There might be a small technical glitch they want to fix before they ship the cores that are substantially finished, so they ship 4 of them in April.  Or maybe they are shipping in stealth mode and are really being stored in McGregor? But there is no evidence of that.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 03/20/2014 10:31 am
Or else space will always be hard.

Your fear is more likely true than not

Gosh I hope you're wrong. I bet you hope you're wrong too. :)[1] But hope doesn't make it so, sadly.

Quote

A container is a container.

They aren't containers.  They are instruments or vehicles in themselves.

True. And (stretching this analogy too far..) we have not yet containerized the shipment of new automobiles (vehicles). But we HAVE regularized it... every few minutes, another auto rack at River Rouge is loaded with new F-150s. Once or twice a day a switch job makes up today's loaded auto racks and they outbound on NS or CSX for varied destinations. When they reach them, they're unloaded and put on truck auto carriers and eventually arrive at dealers... if a PARTICULAR F-150 has a QC problem, it just doesn't go out today, it goes out tomorrow when it's fixed. Doesn't slow the flow of vehicles outbound by much at all unless the problem is so big it stops the line. (GM recently put a hold on SUV production because of an airbag issue. That's rare but it does happen) Although each pickup varies from the next in what options it has, in totality, the pickup production is standardized... there's an assortment of options that either get added or don't... there are no separate engineering drawings for each vehicle (although there is a specific Assembly Bill of Materials for each build, it's generated by automation)

Conversely, when the factory finishes a new Gulfstream, it's self ferried... custom trip, if it's not ready, the ferry pilot waits until it is, and it very well may slow down or stop the flow of vehicles behind it. Each Gulfstream is, essentially, completely custom, and may have a big stack of drawings and documentation that were prepared by humans specifically for that vehicle.

Today spacecraft payloads are a lot more like brand new aircraft than they are like pickup trucks. One problem cascades. Everything stops while it gets fixed. Every vehicle, even if built on a common bus, is custom...Today. 

(long winded way of agreeing with you) 

But I don't want Space to Be Hard. And I think neither does Elon, long term.  (500,000 USD round trips to Mars will need to be on vehicles operationally more like already built airliners or pickup trucks than like current custom critical, one off flights) His wish has more of a chance of changing reality than mine does...  not this year. And maybe not this decade. Hopefully this century though or we will never get the growth in population offworld we need to be a spacefaring civilization with most of our industrial base offworld, rather than just a civlilzation that launches a few things.

1 - yes, I just claimed Jim is secretly a (space, not necessarily SpaceX) amazing people too :) He has been know to mutter "go baby go" at launches. :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AnjaZoe on 03/20/2014 10:40 am
Other differences between mass market automobiles and satellites / payloads are the number of units produced, quality requirements and the little issue that you can't simply recall a satellite if you figure out after launch that there is a problem with a part or manufacturing.

Zoe
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lurker Steve on 03/20/2014 12:19 pm
Other differences between mass market automobiles and satellites / payloads are the number of units produced, quality requirements and the little issue that you can't simply recall a satellite if you figure out after launch that there is a problem with a part or manufacturing.

Zoe

The other problem is that the Hub / Spoke delivery system doesn't really apply to space.

When stuff is shipped by boat or rail, that means there is a existing transportation system at the remote hub that can handle offloading the cargo, and performing the short-haul delivery.

Unfortunately, space is too big for that. You can't drop off cargo at some random place in LEO or even GTO, and expect some "local" freighter is going to transport your cargo to the proper orbit.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: go4mars on 03/20/2014 10:43 pm
The other problem is that the Hub / Spoke delivery system doesn't really apply to space.
yet.

I think Earth-Moon Lagrange points will be a hubs some day.  Others more distant in space and time.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 03/21/2014 12:10 am
"A rocket leaves the factory every four weeks" is not the same as "it takes four weeks to build one rocket" ::)
Semantics  ::)  There's essentially no difference if you need to use them pretty much immediately which is where SpaceX currently is in order to meet their manifest for the year.

I once visited an automobile factory.  One car left that factory every minute after spending about 8 hours on the assembly line.  That means that there were about 8 hours * 60 minutes/hour = 480 cars "in the pipeline" at any one time.

Ok, I'll eat humble pie.  Clearly didn't think this through properly.  :(  So anyone, how long does a rocket stay on the production line?  How many in 'production' at any one time?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 03/21/2014 01:24 am
So anyone, how long does a rocket stay on the production line?  How many in 'production' at any one time?

I suspect that greatly depends on the particular rocket in question.  I also suspect that SpaceX is on the high pipeline velocity end of the large rocket building spectrum, meaning that stages spend less time on the assembly line there than average.  I also suspect that the large ICBM build up resulted in the largest number of in-process stages at a time in history.  On the other end of the spectrum might be Shuttle, with very long periods between the start of the process and the delivery of the hardware (external tanks, in this case).  But someone like Jim and the other usual suspects around here would know far more than I do about the particulars of the history of rocket production.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: CuddlyRocket on 03/21/2014 07:11 am
Today spacecraft payloads are a lot more like brand new aircraft than they are like pickup trucks. One problem cascades. Everything stops while it gets fixed. Every vehicle, even if built on a common bus, is custom...Today.

What you may be looking for is mass customisation. They don't appear to have cracked that concept yet, even in earthly manufactures, and it does require a mass market.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 03/21/2014 03:47 pm
...
I think, SpaceX have chosen this other way: no production for stock, stop the line.

My conclusion: the problem is the launch rate and not the production rate. They have to focus on it.

According to Elon Musk, SpaceX is not producing cores as quickly as they need to meet their launch manifest. From nextbigfuture.com March 05, 2014 (http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/03/spacex-falcon-heavy-launch-delayed-to.html):
Quote
“We need to find three additional cores that we could produce, send them through testing and then fly without disrupting our launch manifest,” Musk said in a Feb. 20 interview. “I'm hopeful we'll have Falcon Heavy cores produced approximately around the end of the year. But just to get through test and qualification, I think it's probably going to be sometime early next year when we launch.”

They may have a launch rate problem as well, but I don't think that is what's limiting core production.

But they're still talking about flying 11 times this year, which means they're still expecting to produce ~14 cores by the end of the year. Plus, they should have more partially finished cores in final assembly then than they did at the start of this year due to the ramp up. If they can find the time to produce three extra cores while still launching almost once a month on average for the year*, I'm inclined to say they're producing cores slightly faster than they can launch them.

*this hinges on them having no significant launch slips, which is unlikely at best, but a launch slip causing a backup at the factory reinforces my point .

Fully agree with it.

The causal chain could be:
launches slipped --> production blocked --> some production capacity lost --> prod. schedules changes --> cores for FH slip (as lower priority than other launches in the manifest)

And IMHO not so:
production too slow --> produced less core than needed-->  prod. schedules changes --> cores for FH slip
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Sesquipedalian on 03/21/2014 04:56 pm
launches slipped --> production blocked

This is the only part of the first chain that doesn't make sense to me.  How would a slipped launch block production?  Is there literally no buffer space to store a core while waiting for a launch to proceed?

I can understand if they don't want to leave it in the parking lot, but I can't imagine there is no extra capacity at the McGregor site, for instance.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: guckyfan on 03/21/2014 05:37 pm
Gwynne Shotwell stated in the show today that they are presently at 1 core per month ramping up to two cores a month by the end of the year. She sees no problems flying the manifest as recently stated.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/21/2014 07:46 pm
This sounds consistent with the idea of roughly 1 core per shift per month:

They'll be utilizing roughly 11-12 cores this year (with Falcon Heavy at least at the test site, plus F9R-dev1 and in-flight abort core and 6 orbital flights with another one waiting at the launch site). They are now hiring for second shift, which would be needed to hit 2 cores per month by the end of the year. They want to hit 40 cores per year eventually with that size of a factory, which would require about three or four shifts, which is basically the upper limit (you run out of time in a week!).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: guckyfan on 03/21/2014 09:22 pm
This sounds consistent with the idea of roughly 1 core per shift per month:

They'll be utilizing roughly 11-12 cores this year (with Falcon Heavy at least at the test site, plus F9R-dev1 and in-flight abort core and 6 orbital flights with another one waiting at the launch site). They are now hiring for second shift, which would be needed to hit 2 cores per month by the end of the year. They want to hit 40 cores per year eventually with that size of a factory, which would require about three or four shifts, which is basically the upper limit (you run out of time in a week!).

I am not sure they need so many more people to increase output. Optimizing workflow can achieve a lot.

I remember seeing a documentary about a new Airbus. It was said that the output would increase by several times over the next few years -  without increasing the workforce. The responsible manager said he does not know how to achieve that yet but experience with previous models shows it will happen.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 03/22/2014 06:34 pm
launches slipped --> production blocked

This is the only part of the first chain that doesn't make sense to me.  How would a slipped launch block production?  Is there literally no buffer space to store a core while waiting for a launch to proceed?

I can understand if they don't want to leave it in the parking lot, but I can't imagine there is no extra capacity at the McGregor site, for instance.

I don't know exactly how SpaceX thinking but what I see is very similar to the Lean principles.

And if we consider these principles it can be understood.

SpaceX have the demand for their production: the launches. And they don't produce more as the demand. It is a very important rule (just in time). They don't make unnecessary stocks.

And yes, it cause problems (f.e. actually some cores - the FH cores - have to wait.)
But this situation is also a huge opportunity: they can test, if the production is really able to produce the planned production rate - syncronised with the following (they hope so...) high launch rate.
The production problems - if they will come - will be asap visible.
And this is a very important "pressure" for learning and for improvement. This is the key.

If they would have chosen stocking, this problems actually could be avoided.
But other problems would come, but only visible later. Later, and with more affect. (Hier: without exapamles, I don't know SpaceX nearly). But this is reality in the industry.

Lean principles are hard to understand, it seems not logical. Because the viewpoint is other as usual.
Some help for this:
http://www.toyota-global.com/company/history_of_toyota/75years/text/taking_on_the_automotive_business/chapter2/section4/item5.html
... and ...
http://www.toyota-global.com/company/history_of_toyota/75years/text/taking_on_the_automotive_business/chapter2/section4/item7.html
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 03/23/2014 01:41 pm
Gwynne Shotwell stated in the show today that they are presently at 1 core per month ramping up to two cores a month by the end of the year. She sees no problems flying the manifest as recently stated.

sorry I just can't understand the numbers ::)
Read back what was said last year.   Pick your poison a month last year. I pick Nov. 2013
5 "New" complete cores should be available for launch 

Subtract the core for the Jan 2014 launch (core completed) carry over from 2013
Subtract the core for CRS-3.

Taking those numbers into account a warehouse some where should be full of completed F9 "cores"

Should be way, way higher than 5 cores.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 03/23/2014 07:50 pm
Gwynne Shotwell stated in the show today that they are presently at 1 core per month ramping up to two cores a month by the end of the year. She sees no problems flying the manifest as recently stated.

sorry I just can't understand the numbers ::)
Read back what was said last year.   Pick your poison a month last year. I pick Nov. 2013
5 "New" complete cores should be available for launch 

Subtract the core for the Jan 2014 launch (core completed) carry over from 2013
Subtract the core for CRS-3.

Taking those numbers into account a warehouse some where should be full of completed F9 "cores"

Should be way, way higher than 5 cores.

Or she is speaking about capability of the production (verified is some cases) and not about real output.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/24/2014 06:31 pm
This sounds consistent with the idea of roughly 1 core per shift per month:

They'll be utilizing roughly 11-12 cores this year (with Falcon Heavy at least at the test site, plus F9R-dev1 and in-flight abort core and 6 orbital flights with another one waiting at the launch site). They are now hiring for second shift, which would be needed to hit 2 cores per month by the end of the year. They want to hit 40 cores per year eventually with that size of a factory, which would require about three or four shifts, which is basically the upper limit (you run out of time in a week!).

I am not sure they need so many more people to increase output. Optimizing workflow can achieve a lot.

I remember seeing a documentary about a new Airbus. It was said that the output would increase by several times over the next few years -  without increasing the workforce. The responsible manager said he does not know how to achieve that yet but experience with previous models shows it will happen.
Indeed, I was merely mentioning how they could get 400% the output of their current factory without increasing its footprint (except perhaps for storage).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jcc on 03/25/2014 10:56 am
Gwynne Shotwell stated in the show today that they are presently at 1 core per month ramping up to two cores a month by the end of the year. She sees no problems flying the manifest as recently stated.

sorry I just can't understand the numbers ::)
Read back what was said last year.   Pick your poison a month last year. I pick Nov. 2013
5 "New" complete cores should be available for launch 

Subtract the core for the Jan 2014 launch (core completed) carry over from 2013
Subtract the core for CRS-3.

Taking those numbers into account a warehouse some where should be full of completed F9 "cores"

Should be way, way higher than 5 cores.

Or she is speaking about capability of the production (verified is some cases) and not about real output.

Yes, and the production rate is also a moving target, evidence is that the rate should increase to 2 a month by the end of the year. There is no fixed date to suddenly switch on double production, except that by December, they plan to be operating at that rate. They will likely ramp up gradually, and ramp-ups are not always smooth, could be two steps forward, one step back if they run into some technical issue. Likewise, if the rate were one a month by January, it clearly was not that rate during Q3 and Q4 last year, so cores are still in short supply. They may have used up 6 months of production in 3 launches, but the first couple of launches were still "beta testing" they had issues to fix (restart) and couldn't go to full production until those were resolved.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 03/25/2014 11:50 am
Likewise, if the rate were one a month by January, it clearly was not that rate during Q3 and Q4 last year, so cores are still in short supply.

I'm not following this. You're saying it's not possible to be at the same production rate for three quarters? Is this a law of physics?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dcporter on 03/25/2014 12:26 pm
Likewise, if the rate were one a month by January, it clearly was not that rate during Q3 and Q4 last year, so cores are still in short supply.

I'm not following this. You're saying it's not possible to be at the same production rate for three quarters? Is this a law of physics?

Observation. Assuming they don't have a cache of manufactured rockets somewhere, they simply *weren't* at that rate then.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 03/25/2014 02:41 pm
There may or may not be a stockpile. The logic of there being a short supply of cores makes an inference based on an assumption that's based on another assumption. It also assumes that someone is lying. Proof please.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dcporter on 03/25/2014 05:18 pm
There may or may not be a stockpile. The logic of there being a short supply of cores makes an inference based on an assumption that's based on another assumption. It also assumes that someone is lying. Proof please.

None of those things need to be true for production to have been lower than 1/month until recently, at 1/month now, and aiming for 2/month by the end of the year. Your last two posts on this thread have invented conflict where there is none.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AnjaZoe on 03/25/2014 05:46 pm
Why are we even discussing whether there might be a cache with (pre)produced stages. In the end it is the number of flights they performed in 2014 that counts....
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 03/26/2014 02:51 pm
There may or may not be a stockpile. The logic of there being a short supply of cores makes an inference based on an assumption that's based on another assumption. It also assumes that someone is lying. Proof please.

None of those things need to be true for production to have been lower than 1/month until recently, at 1/month now, and aiming for 2/month by the end of the year. Your last two posts on this thread have invented conflict where there is none.

No. the poster I responded to concluded that cores are in short supply because if production was at 1/month in January, then it was clearly less than that in Q4. SpaceX has claimed once a month since Q3. You can't just randomly conclude something for which there is no evidence and then use that conclusion to declare a shortage. All of this is possible, but none of it is 'clear' unless someone can show any evidence for production rates lower than their stated rate in Q4 and evidence that it was so much lower that they are facing a shortage.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dcporter on 03/26/2014 03:12 pm
There may or may not be a stockpile. The logic of there being a short supply of cores makes an inference based on an assumption that's based on another assumption. It also assumes that someone is lying. Proof please.

None of those things need to be true for production to have been lower than 1/month until recently, at 1/month now, and aiming for 2/month by the end of the year. Your last two posts on this thread have invented conflict where there is none.

No. the poster I responded to concluded that cores are in short supply because if production was at 1/month in January, then it was clearly less than that in Q4. SpaceX has claimed once a month since Q3. You can't just randomly conclude something for which there is no evidence and then use that conclusion to declare a shortage. All of this is possible, but none of it is 'clear' unless someone can show any evidence for production rates lower than their stated rate in Q4 and evidence that it was so much lower that they are facing a shortage.

Where was it stated that they've completed one a month since Q3 last year? I missed that.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 03/26/2014 07:10 pm
Space is hard, scratch another 1 1/2 months off the numbers with todays news.
March (gone) into mid to late April for the next launch.

 :-X
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cartman on 03/26/2014 07:32 pm
So you see the CRS-3 mission being pushed to May by this?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: TripD on 03/26/2014 07:42 pm
Quote
Space is hard, scratch another 1 1/2 months off the numbers with todays news.

Is this wrt the Soyuz delay?  I just read an article at Space.com saying that this will not impact the SpaceX schedule. We can only hope  ::)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jason1701 on 03/26/2014 07:48 pm
Quote
Space is hard, scratch another 1 1/2 months off the numbers with todays news.

Is this wrt the Soyuz delay?  I just read an article at Space.com saying that this will not impact the SpaceX schedule. We can only hope  ::)

It's the range problem at CCAFS.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: DJPledger on 03/26/2014 07:48 pm
Space is hard, scratch another 1 1/2 months off the numbers with todays news.
 :-X
Delays caused by factors outside of SpaceX's control such as the recent radar fire at CCAFS are likely to cause subsequent SpaceX launches to be delayed so maybe no more than 6 SpaceX orbital launches this year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: veblen on 03/26/2014 07:54 pm
Production of cores is one thing, launch delay reality is another. Contamination, radar fire, what next? (My prediction was 6 launches). Hopefully they can still do 6, doubling launches from 2013.



Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 03/26/2014 08:16 pm
There may or may not be a stockpile. The logic of there being a short supply of cores makes an inference based on an assumption that's based on another assumption. It also assumes that someone is lying. Proof please.

None of those things need to be true for production to have been lower than 1/month until recently, at 1/month now, and aiming for 2/month by the end of the year. Your last two posts on this thread have invented conflict where there is none.

No. the poster I responded to concluded that cores are in short supply because if production was at 1/month in January, then it was clearly less than that in Q4. SpaceX has claimed once a month since Q3. You can't just randomly conclude something for which there is no evidence and then use that conclusion to declare a shortage. All of this is possible, but none of it is 'clear' unless someone can show any evidence for production rates lower than their stated rate in Q4 and evidence that it was so much lower that they are facing a shortage.

Where was it stated that they've completed one a month since Q3 last year? I missed that.

Quote
"Right now, we're at about a vehicle per month production rate. We'll be at 18 per year in the next couple of quarters, and by the end of next year we'll be at a rate of 24 a year, or two a month."

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-25210742 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-25210742)

This was December 3rd. I can find earlier. Need some free time.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 03/27/2014 12:05 am
Space is hard, scratch another 1 1/2 months off the numbers with todays news.

 :-X

Is the flight delayed 6 weeks? Or are you just concern trolling as usual?
No definitive delay duration at this time but some seems likely.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: WHAP on 03/27/2014 12:11 am

Space is hard, scratch another 1 1/2 months off the numbers with todays news.

 :-X

Is the flight delayed 6 weeks? Or are you just concern trolling as usual?
No definitive delay duration at this time but some seems likely.

Guess would be two weeks, to keep vehicles in the same order they were in - a few days after Atlas.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: ChefPat on 03/27/2014 12:13 am
This recent delay is why I picked 6. There are so many different factors that make space hard. Really, really hard.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 03/27/2014 12:17 am
Airforce has go to have a portable Radar..  third world nations have some to lease..
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cuddihy on 03/27/2014 01:17 am
The US Air Force has them too, and the army has even more. But it takes time to find one with the correct frequency, range, angle discrimination, and doppler, slewing & tracking, ship it to the right location, set it up, calibrate it, and then program and connect it to pass the data in the correct format. And that takes trained people on that radar. When all is said and done, your handwave solution took weeks or months of dedicated effort while the original radar was repaired and put back in operation 7-10 days later...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: sdsds on 03/27/2014 02:12 am
As regards the output rate of the production pipeline, I'm wondering if the first stage for the flight following CRS-3 has arrived yet at the Cape? On February 9, 2014 a reliable source indicated, "The Falcon 9's first and second stages, along with the Dragon spacecraft, are now at Cape Canaveral for launch processing." (http://www.spaceflightnow.com/falcon9/009/140209date)

It is now 1.5 months after that date. Is SpaceX delivering cores to the launch site at a rate slower than 8 per year?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: butters on 03/27/2014 02:45 am
As regards the output rate of the production pipeline, I'm wondering if the first stage for the flight following CRS-3 has arrived yet at the Cape? On February 9, 2014 a reliable source indicated, "The Falcon 9's first and second stages, along with the Dragon spacecraft, are now at Cape Canaveral for launch processing." (http://www.spaceflightnow.com/falcon9/009/140209date)

It is now 1.5 months after that date. Is SpaceX delivering cores to the launch site at a rate slower than 8 per year?

As of a few days ago, the first stage for OG-3 was on the test stand in McGregor.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 03/27/2014 11:38 am
I'm wondering if SpaceX has the capacity to store cores processed at McGregor, somewhere along the chain up to KSC... just keep churning out verified cores, and hope for the best, which might help make up some time lost, through the late Spring, Summer months...
       or slow processing down, and save money...
not that I doubt there won't be delays through the summer as well... my guess was 6 with a hopeful 8 right underneath it... but if we get more delays like we have, I might even count the 6 as optimistic...  :(
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: rpapo on 03/27/2014 11:44 am
Seems to me it would help enormously to have a second assembly bay at KSC, alongside the current one.  That way delays in the current flight wouldn't hold up preparations for the next one, and in fact they could change the launch order if necessary.

Would probably require more technicians, though.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 03/27/2014 01:19 pm
As regards the output rate of the production pipeline, I'm wondering if the first stage for the flight following CRS-3 has arrived yet at the Cape? On February 9, 2014 a reliable source indicated, "The Falcon 9's first and second stages, along with the Dragon spacecraft, are now at Cape Canaveral for launch processing." (http://www.spaceflightnow.com/falcon9/009/140209date)

It is now 1.5 months after that date. Is SpaceX delivering cores to the launch site at a rate slower than 8 per year?

On the positive side this could be a major blessing for SpaceX.    The delay in launching CRS-3 gives production time for 1.5 to 2 more cores if the company has room to store them.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: vapour_nudge on 03/27/2014 01:24 pm
I still think it is going to be 7. Those ISS schedules can move to the right very easily. So many variables. if they do get to 10 they would have launched more often than Atlas V which is the US leader at 8 last year and probably 9 this year

That's two steps to the right since my last post and we're into NET April. 7 is looking real good.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AncientU on 03/27/2014 01:29 pm
As regards the output rate of the production pipeline, I'm wondering if the first stage for the flight following CRS-3 has arrived yet at the Cape? On February 9, 2014 a reliable source indicated, "The Falcon 9's first and second stages, along with the Dragon spacecraft, are now at Cape Canaveral for launch processing." (http://www.spaceflightnow.com/falcon9/009/140209date)

It is now 1.5 months after that date. Is SpaceX delivering cores to the launch site at a rate slower than 8 per year?

On the positive side this could be a major blessing for SpaceX.    The delay in launching CRS-3 gives production time for 1.5 to 2 more cores if the company has room to store them.
They probably could fit the FH cores in now without missing a beat at the Cape. Those cores go to Vandy where there is plenty of room, but via McGregor, where they might get in the way of progress on the manifest launch sequence.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: aero on 03/27/2014 03:56 pm
Well, if the launches keep going off as regularly as CRS-3 has gone, the bright side is that they should have 9-12 cores ready and waiting by the end of the year  ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: watermod on 03/27/2014 04:11 pm
If the cape is down too long, could SpaceX launch some of their commercial payloads from Vandenburg, in a fully expendable mode (no legs etc) and  do some sort of "dog-leg" to put them in a  proper orbit?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/27/2014 04:50 pm
I think SpaceX can store one or two cores at McGregor, though possibly more.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 03/27/2014 04:52 pm
If the cape is down too long, could SpaceX launch some of their commercial payloads from Vandenburg, in a fully expendable mode (no legs etc) and  do some sort of "dog-leg" to put them in a  proper orbit?


Not GTO bound ones
Even if the vehicle was capable, it is would take too long to make the change
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 03/27/2014 09:13 pm
I think SpaceX can store one or two cores at McGregor, though possibly more.

How long would it take to create a short term storage facility? Enough to keep the rain off! Or do these places need to be kept climate controlled?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Arb on 03/28/2014 12:23 pm
I think SpaceX can store one or two cores at McGregor, though possibly more.

How long would it take to create a short term storage facility? Enough to keep the rain off! Or do these places need to be kept climate controlled?

Except they seem to be operating a deliberate policy of "just in time" shipping from Hawthorn.

Speculation as to why might be interesting.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 03/28/2014 12:31 pm
I think SpaceX can store one or two cores at McGregor, though possibly more.

How long would it take to create a short term storage facility? Enough to keep the rain off! Or do these places need to be kept climate controlled?

Except they seem to be operating a deliberate policy of "just in time" shipping from Hawthorn.

Speculation as to why might be interesting.

JIT = cost savings in most manufacturing

Just might not translate well for the launch business.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 03/28/2014 02:15 pm
JIT only brings cost savings if there aren't hiccups in other areas. SpaceX is vertically integrated, so if their production capacity is sitting idle because their launch capacity has not yet reached its potential (and this is obvious, so they're working hardcore to increase capacity by opening new launch pads), then they are essentially wasting money. Better to keep producing cores so when they have all 4 pads up and operational and stream-lined, they can launch at full tilt.

JIT makes sense in theory if you have a horizontally integrated business in steady-state. SpaceX is vertically integrated and is in the ramp-up mode.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 03/29/2014 01:13 pm

JIT = cost savings in most manufacturing


This is a big misinterpreting of JIT, but is very common in the industry.
That's why it is turning into simply cost saving - causing many problems for the companies.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: mme on 03/29/2014 04:00 pm
...
Except they seem to be operating a deliberate policy of "just in time" shipping from Hawthorn.

Speculation as to why might be interesting.
Given Musk's explicit quote (http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/03/spacex-falcon-heavy-launch-delayed-to.html):
Quote
We need to find three additional cores that we could produce, send them through testing and then fly without disrupting our launch manifest,” Musk said in a Feb. 20 interview. “I'm hopeful we'll have Falcon Heavy cores produced approximately around the end of the year. But just to get through test and qualification, I think it's probably going to be sometime early next year when we launch.”
I do not think they are engaging in JIT. It makes no sense to idle your production line for FH because F9s are delayed. The FH has it's own test stand in McGregor and will fly out of Vandenberg, how are F9 delays at KSC relevant?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: spectre9 on 03/29/2014 10:39 pm
Oh joy it's the 30th time for a rocket launch  ;D

Apparently not  :(
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 03/30/2014 05:07 pm
Quote
"Right now, we're at about a vehicle per month production rate. We'll be at 18 per year in the next couple of quarters, and by the end of next year we'll be at a rate of 24 a year, or two a month."

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-25210742 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-25210742)

This was December 3rd. I can find earlier. Need some free time.

Hope this post doesn't take this thread too far out, but we are talking production.
March 28: Ford goes into the bomber-building business on this date in 1942
http://autos.yahoo.com/blogs/motoramic/march-28-ford-goes-bomber-building-business-date-125358887.html

Truly an amazing video of what was accomplished at that time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKlt6rNciTo

The manufacturing and construction production video for the Consolidated B-24 Liberator heavy bomber. This video is about the Ford Motor Company production plant at Willow Run for B-24's before and during World War II. Ford Motor Company manufactured and built B-24 Liberators under license from Consolidated Aircraft Company. Production rates were so great at the Ford Willow Run plant, that a new B-24 rolled off the production line every 55 minutes.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: sublimemarsupial on 04/01/2014 07:00 pm
Jeff Foust quotes Shotwell as maintaining 9 more launches scheduled for this year, despite CRS-3 delay. Thats exactly one a month from here on out. Also quotes 15-17 for next year, quite a ramp up.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/451035641644478465
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Nate_Trost on 04/01/2014 07:33 pm
Relevant to that figure, it looks like SpaceX is going to bite the bullet and do the work to be able to do the in-flight abort test from Vandenberg instead of the Cape: https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/451069770368954368
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 04/01/2014 07:52 pm
Relevant to that figure, it looks like SpaceX is going to bite the bullet and do the work to be able to do the in-flight abort test from Vandenberg instead of the Cape: https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/451069770368954368

Check the date :)...  but if so, why would they? reduce critical path stuff I guess.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: StephenB on 04/01/2014 08:04 pm
Relevant to that figure, it looks like SpaceX is going to bite the bullet and do the work to be able to do the in-flight abort test from Vandenberg instead of the Cape: https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/451069770368954368

Check the date :)...  but if so, why would they? reduce critical path stuff I guess.

Man I hate April 1st. But this one seems kinda subtle to be a joke.

It makes sense too. SpaceX right now has "1.1" pads. Vandenberg sits idle most of the time.

I also wonder if delays in SpaceX's launch schedule at the Cape might translate into a higher chance of an earlier FH debut by freeing up more cores.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 04/01/2014 08:59 pm
Jeff Foust quotes Shotwell as maintaining 9 more launches scheduled for this year, despite CRS-3 delay.
I would bet serious amount of money against it. Despite what some folks here think, Musk is no miracle maker.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 04/02/2014 12:01 am
Relevant to that figure, it looks like SpaceX is going to bite the bullet and do the work to be able to do the in-flight abort test from Vandenberg instead of the Cape: https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/451069770368954368

This is quite a find... (assuming it isn't an April 1st joke, but the context makes it unlikely)

It makes a lot of sense - the VAFB pad is far from busy, and will lighten the launch schedule a bit for LC-40 for the fall. So I guess this would move in front of the FH test flight.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 04/02/2014 01:16 am
Jeff Foust quotes Shotwell as maintaining 9 more launches scheduled for this year, despite CRS-3 delay.
I would bet serious amount of money against it. Despite what some folks here think, Musk is no miracle maker.

What?  You don't think so?  I do given the number of times he seems to have escaped disaster only to rise from the ashes so to speak.   But perhaps it's just good engineering and business nouce.  No, it isn't.  There's a fair degree of being in the right place at the right time and a certain element of 'the gods are on his side'.   :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: su27k on 04/02/2014 05:45 am
Relevant to that figure, it looks like SpaceX is going to bite the bullet and do the work to be able to do the in-flight abort test from Vandenberg instead of the Cape: https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/451069770368954368

One wonders why don't they move pad abort to Vandenberg too, if they're going to bite the bullet, might as well bite all the way.

A lot of other info from jeff_foust on twitter, but nobody wants to discuss them because of the date, guess it's not a good idea to have a panel discussion on April 1st, oh well.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 04/02/2014 06:08 am
Relevant to that figure, it looks like SpaceX is going to bite the bullet and do the work to be able to do the in-flight abort test from Vandenberg instead of the Cape: https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/451069770368954368

One wonders why don't they move pad abort to Vandenberg too, if they're going to bite the bullet, might as well bite all the way.

The pad abort is more crucial to do at CCAFS, since they need to show that the Dragon can land in the ocean during realistic conditions. It will also allow SpaceX and NASA to practice rescue operations.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 04/02/2014 08:50 am
There's a fair degree of being in the right place at the right time and a certain element of 'the gods are on his side'. :)
SpaceX is known for many things, but being fast is not one of them. At this point, 9 flights are as realistic as 20 peddled by some nuts here not that long ago.  ::)

A lot of other info from jeff_foust on twitter, but nobody wants to discuss them because of the date, guess it's not a good idea to have a panel discussion on April 1st, oh well.
I have an idea (too late, I know). SpaceX could at 1st April reveal what they are actually planning and work on (this whole "If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!").

It (both reveal and reactions) would be pretty funny.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Dudely on 04/02/2014 12:12 pm
Jeff Foust quotes Shotwell as maintaining 9 more launches scheduled for this year, despite CRS-3 delay.
I would bet serious amount of money against it. Despite what some folks here think, Musk is no miracle maker.

What?  You don't think so?  I do given the number of times he seems to have escaped disaster only to rise from the ashes so to speak.   But perhaps it's just good engineering and business nouce.  No, it isn't.  There's a fair degree of being in the right place at the right time and a certain element of 'the gods are on his side'.   :)

No, he's just stubborn. Which is a good thing!

You don't have to be better or faster or smarter. You just have to keep going when everyone else has given up.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 04/02/2014 12:22 pm

You don't have to be better or faster or smarter. You just have to keep going when everyone else has given up.

I don't think his people will like knowing that they will be working 60-70 hours per week for the rest of the year
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 04/02/2014 12:23 pm

One wonders why don't they move pad abort to Vandenberg too, if they're going to bite the bullet, might as well bite all the way.


Because VAFB can't handle a Dragon?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: woods170 on 04/02/2014 12:58 pm

One wonders why don't they move pad abort to Vandenberg too, if they're going to bite the bullet, might as well bite all the way.


Because VAFB can't handle a Dragon?
Both the pad abort and the in-flight abort involve Dragon. A Dragon will have to be handled at VAFB for the in-flight abort test.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 04/02/2014 01:25 pm

A Dragon will have to be handled at VAFB for the in-flight abort test.

I don't recall that happening from VAFB
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Nate_Trost on 04/02/2014 01:35 pm
Sure sounds like they worked up a figure of the extra effort and expense of doing a one-off Dragon integration from VAFB for the in-flight abort test and decided it was worth it to relieve a bit of schedule pressure from LC-40.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: WHAP on 04/02/2014 01:53 pm


You don't have to be better or faster or smarter. You just have to keep going when everyone else has given up.

I don't think his people will like knowing that they will be working 60-70 hours per week for the rest of the year

What happens next year?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lurker Steve on 04/02/2014 02:02 pm


You don't have to be better or faster or smarter. You just have to keep going when everyone else has given up.

I don't think his people will like knowing that they will be working 60-70 hours per week for the rest of the year

What happens next year?

More of the same, except with new faces.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 04/02/2014 02:08 pm
Sure sounds like they worked up a figure of the extra effort and expense of doing a one-off Dragon integration from VAFB

Handling fixtures, lift frames, access GSE, prop loading equipment, EGSE, etc

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dcporter on 04/02/2014 02:09 pm

A Dragon will have to be handled at VAFB for the in-flight abort test.

I don't recall that happening from VAFB

Jim, this is where that was coming from:

Relevant to that figure, it looks like SpaceX is going to bite the bullet and do the work to be able to do the in-flight abort test from Vandenberg instead of the Cape: https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/451069770368954368
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: baldusi on 04/02/2014 03:04 pm

Sure sounds like they worked up a figure of the extra effort and expense of doing a one-off Dragon integration from VAFB

Handling fixtures, lift frames, access GSE, prop loading equipment, EGSE, etc
Could they have a second set for the crewed version?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: 411rocket on 04/02/2014 03:37 pm

Sure sounds like they worked up a figure of the extra effort and expense of doing a one-off Dragon integration from VAFB

Handling fixtures, lift frames, access GSE, prop loading equipment, EGSE, etc
Could they have a second set for the crewed version?

May need a second set, for when 39A comes on line. But some of the Dragon handling fixtures & lift frames ect, could possibly be temp relocated, for the in flight test, during a period of sat launches, on the East coast.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: matthewbot on 04/02/2014 03:53 pm


You don't have to be better or faster or smarter. You just have to keep going when everyone else has given up.

I don't think his people will like knowing that they will be working 60-70 hours per week for the rest of the year

What happens next year?

More of the same, except with new faces.

SpaceX is not for everyone. But the "work your ass off with other brilliant people with loads of freedom, perks, and stock options while trying to change the world" has worked out just fine for companies like Apple and Google. At these places, the people who stick around are the people who work smarter _and_ harder. Its how they got where they are today, or in SpaceX's case how they hope to get to where they want to be.

Despite all the doom and gloom predictions of people supposedly in the know, SpaceX is still growing. I think a more apt comparison is taking on new challenges with new faces, instead of utilizing existing solutions with old faces.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 04/02/2014 03:59 pm
There's no question that SpaceX pushes their workforce harder than other companies. That doesn't mean they'll fail. Doesn't mean every company could or should operate in the same way.

Every successful small business owner I know operates at about the same pace. SpaceX just is going to have to find all those sort of driven people in the aerospace world.

If you want work/life balance, don't work at SpaceX. Work at Virgin Galactic or something.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AnjaZoe on 04/02/2014 03:59 pm
Stock options sounds fine, but then the company has to be on the stock market, no?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 04/02/2014 04:01 pm
Stock options sounds fine, but then the company has to be on the stock market, no?
No, actually. They just did another round of private financing which allows employees to cash out if they want to without the company going public. (They can only do this so many times before they either need to consolidate shares to fewer shareholders or essentially get reporting requirements similar to public companies.)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AnjaZoe on 04/02/2014 04:11 pm
Thanks, sounds interesting.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Dudely on 04/02/2014 04:38 pm

You don't have to be better or faster or smarter. You just have to keep going when everyone else has given up.

I don't think his people will like knowing that they will be working 60-70 hours per week for the rest of the year

The beauty in his plan is that there are enough people who share his vision that he can run a company with thousands of people in it and include only people who are willing to work very very hard for not a whole lot more than any other company, other than "shoot cool stuff into space" (which other companies do, just usually smaller and/or less glamorously).

There are lots of twenty-something male engineers and they all like making big explosions. SpaceX makes some of the biggest, and they promise more.

I'd personally not work for them, but being 26, I am sorely tempted.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 04/02/2014 07:34 pm
Not true.  There isnt enough nor the ability to get
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: JasonAW3 on 04/02/2014 08:00 pm

One wonders why don't they move pad abort to Vandenberg too, if they're going to bite the bullet, might as well bite all the way.


Because VAFB can't handle a Dragon?
Both the pad abort and the in-flight abort involve Dragon. A Dragon will have to be handled at VAFB for the in-flight abort test.

That's funny.  I understood both the pad and inflight abort tests were supposed to be in Florida.  Was I wrong?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Chris Bergin on 04/02/2014 08:01 pm
Is this thread just for gushing now? Either post about the thread title or don't bother. Some of you like the sound of your own voices a little bit too much! ;)

"I have something to say on the internet and everyone will love it!"

Yeah, but forum's have structure. It compartmentalizes everything in neat and tidy searchable and titled sections. Try to remember that before you go off on a tangent and break the bloody internet! ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Vultur on 04/05/2014 01:20 am
Jeff Foust quotes Shotwell as maintaining 9 more launches scheduled for this year, despite CRS-3 delay. Thats exactly one a month from here on out. Also quotes 15-17 for next year, quite a ramp up.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/451035641644478465

This might be counting the in-flight abort as a launch, so maybe 8 by this thread's criteria?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: TripD on 04/05/2014 03:30 am
Just read that the next launch attempt is April 14th at 4:58 pm. I'm assuming that is eastern time. Anyways, that bodes well for booster viewing! Really looking forward to seeing the SpaceX ball rolling again.  ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: vapour_nudge on 04/05/2014 09:49 am
Just read that the next launch attempt is April 14th at 4:58 pm. I'm assuming that is eastern time. Anyways, that bodes well for booster viewing! Really looking forward to seeing the SpaceX ball rolling again.  ;D

Yes, April 14th. All the best to SpaceX of course I hope they get all their launches on schedule but I can't see it happening and my guess of 7 this year is looking ambitious. These delays may be in or out of their control but nevertheless, we didn't see contamination coming nor fires in range assets. It's the nature of the beast.  So, it's looking like almost the middle of the April for only the second attempt this year. Who knows, the attempt on the 14th could still be delayed, you can't rule out weather either.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: TripD on 04/06/2014 06:36 pm
Quote
Yes, April 14th. All the best to SpaceX of course I hope they get all their launches on schedule but I can't see it happening and my guess of 7 this year is looking ambitious. These delays may be in or out of their control but nevertheless, we didn't see contamination coming nor fires in range assets. It's the nature of the beast.  So, it's looking like almost the middle of the April for only the second attempt this year. Who knows, the attempt on the 14th could still be delayed, you can't rule out weather either.

Can't argue with you there.  Much of this goes unnoticed to the general public (myself included). With all that can go wrong, I find myself simply in awe and admiration for the entire aerospace endeavor.  That being said, I am proudly holding out for 9 launches this year!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Sohl on 04/07/2014 12:47 pm
... my guess of 7 this year is looking ambitious.

Yours and mine both!  :-[
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AncientU on 04/11/2014 02:01 pm
Short turn-around mentioned -- not heard of this before...
Quote
... SpaceX on Monday will attempt to loft its third ISS resupply mission under a $1.6 billion NASA contract, and possibly follow that with a commercial satellite launch before the end of the month.
[bold mine]
http://www.wtsp.com/story/news/2014/04/11/spy-satellite/7585345/
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: yg1968 on 04/11/2014 02:12 pm
There's no question that SpaceX pushes their workforce harder than other companies. That doesn't mean they'll fail. Doesn't mean every company could or should operate in the same way.

Every successful small business owner I know operates at about the same pace. SpaceX just is going to have to find all those sort of driven people in the aerospace world.

If you want work/life balance, don't work at SpaceX. Work at Virgin Galactic or something.

I don't know anybody that works at SpaceX. But I have worked in an environment that requires long hours. Generally, only the younger or less experienced people work long hours. The more experienced people don't have to work all the time because they are more efficient. They still have to be available all the time. But they are allowed to have a family life. They go home at normal hours and often work from home (usually after putting their kids to bed).

In any event, my prediction of one flight per month is not going to happen. Even if everybody at SpaceX works on weekends...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lurker Steve on 04/11/2014 02:30 pm
There's no question that SpaceX pushes their workforce harder than other companies. That doesn't mean they'll fail. Doesn't mean every company could or should operate in the same way.

Every successful small business owner I know operates at about the same pace. SpaceX just is going to have to find all those sort of driven people in the aerospace world.

If you want work/life balance, don't work at SpaceX. Work at Virgin Galactic or something.

I don't know anybody that works at Space. But I have worked in an environment that requires long hours. Generally, only the younger or less experienced people work long hours. The more experienced people don't have to work all the time because they are more efficient. They still have to be available all the time. But they are allowed to have a family life. They go home at normal hours and often work from home (usually after putting their kids to bed).

In any event, my prediction of one flight per month is not going to happen. Even if everybody at SpaceX works on weekends...

We are going off topic here again, but my experience is just the opposite.

The more experienced people actually get more work dumped on them, because the company knows it will get done properly. It's really not about being more efficient. We are just more heavy loaded than the new employees.

Back to the SpaceX launch schedule...

Since the CRS flight is still in the integration building, that means there hasn't been any integration work on the launcher for the Orbcomm launch. That's reason 1 for Orbcomm slipping into May, at the earliest. Then what happens to AsiaSat ?? Does anyone know if either of these payloads are already in Florida ?

Is it still possible for one of these AsiaSat missions to move to Arianne ??
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: QuantumG on 04/12/2014 01:37 am
We are going off topic here again, but my experience is just the opposite.

The more experienced people actually get more work dumped on them, because the company knows it will get done properly. It's really not about being more efficient. We are just more heavy loaded than the new employees.

You're supposed to delegate.  8)

(apologies to mods, tried to send in PM, but blocked??)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: vapour_nudge on 04/12/2014 03:47 am
... my guess of 7 this year is looking ambitious.

Yours and mine both!  :-[

There is now news of a component failure on the station that could cause yet another delay (for good reason I might add). Once again, the schedule is poised to move to the right as is the nature of these things. Is this launch holding up others? Again, 7 launches for the year is looking ambitious.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 04/15/2014 05:13 am
Ahhhh, another delay.  Oh well, guess that's the space business   :P
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: fatjohn1408 on 04/15/2014 08:36 am
... my guess of 7 this year is looking ambitious.

Yours and mine both!  :-[

Mine as well, definitely with the additional delay.
But that ain't nothing against the forum's consensus of 8. :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: woods170 on 04/15/2014 09:26 am
Given that at least two more SpX CRS missions are planned for this year, beyond CRS-3, and that those will undoubtly be associated with their own delays.... I'll say my guess of at most 6 SpaceX orbital launches this year is looking better all the time.  8)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 04/15/2014 09:42 am
Better? Ha! I already estimate they will launch 4, at most 5 times this year (my original prediction: seven  :'( ). Assuming they finally fly in April, this will be two launches in four months. Theoretically it gives hope for 6 launches in 2014, but Reality will not have any of it, I betha.

And BTW someone could wonder where vanished all of those fun people that predicted 12+ or even 20 lanuches from nowhere?  ::) ::)
Title: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ric Capucho on 04/15/2014 11:23 am
Sadly, my rather conservative guess is beginning to look more "achievable". Wish I can be more upbeat, but years of project management have taught me (the hard way) that increasing the pace needs proven capabilities and not promises. And trying to catch up on lost time is a fool's errand.

To be fair, the delays the last few months are primarily coming from the range, so we should give SpaceX a break. Space might be hard, but they're finding that Earth (Florida) is even harder.

TW
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: ugordan on 04/15/2014 11:29 am
To be fair, the delays the last few months are primarily coming from the range

You've got to be kidding.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: woods170 on 04/15/2014 01:00 pm
Better? Ha! I already estimate they will launch 4, at most 5 times this year (my original prediction: seven  :'( ). Assuming they finally fly in April, this will be two launches in four months. Theoretically it gives hope for 6 launches in 2014, but Reality will not have any of it, I betha.

As long as the majority of scheduled launches is slated to go from the Cape, than the fact that SpaceX currently has only one active launchpad there will seriously slow down the projected (or should I say: wished for) launch rate. Reason: those pesky CRS flights in between commercial flights. The CRS flights have a habit of being delayed multiple times for multiple reasons, with most of those reasons being outside of SpaceX control. Naturally, that does not include the recent range trouble as that particular problem would have prevented any sort of launch - CRS or otherwise.

It seems that switching a delayed CRS flight for launch of a different commercial payload is not possible on short notice. One of the reasons being a seeming inability to store and process more than 1 Falcon 9 launcher at the Cape (or VABF for that matter) at any given time.

And from what we have heard about the previous Falcon 9 launch there was substantially more damage done to the TEL and other launchpad infrastructure then anticipated. That will also serve to slow the launch rate down.
My guess is that SpaceX is more than willing to pick up the launch rate but that along the way they are discovering (learning) that it is not so easy to accomplish.

And come to think of it: projected launch rates of 12+ per year, with only one vehicle and two launchpads available don't make any sense. ULA has twice the number of launchers and twice the number of launchpads but they sure as h*ll don't do 24+ launches per year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Kaputnik on 04/15/2014 02:02 pm
Sticking to my estimate of five at this point. I think six is still achievable though.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ric Capucho on 04/15/2014 02:18 pm
To be fair, the delays the last few months are primarily coming from the range

You've got to be kidding.

Not kidding, but ready and willing to be corrected. Proceed McDuff...

TW
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: ugordan on 04/15/2014 02:24 pm
To be fair, the delays the last few months are primarily coming from the range

You've got to be kidding.

Not kidding, but ready and willing to be corrected. Proceed McDuff...

TW

Delayed from April 6, Sept. 30, Nov. 11, Dec. 9, Jan. 15, Feb. 11, Feb. 22, March 1, March 16 and March 30. Scrubbed on April 14.

Yes, those two weeks of range radar outage were the biggest impact...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 04/15/2014 02:29 pm
To be fair, the delays the last few months are primarily coming from the range

You've got to be kidding.

Not kidding, but ready and willing to be corrected. Proceed McDuff...

TW

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2013/08/nasa-planners-switch-spacex-dragon-mission-2014/
"Planners within the ISS program have manifested the next two Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) missions. Both Orbital’s CRS-1 (ORB-1) and SpaceX’s CRS-3 (SpX-3) missions were initially provided with the same orbital place-holder in December, prior to this week’s decision to allow Cygnus to fly ahead of Dragon, with the latter moving to NET January 17, 2014 berthing date."

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2013/10/spacex-realign-falcon-9-missions/
"SpaceX have opted to slip their next two missions, to allow for corrective work on the upper stage engine."

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/03/spacex-delay-crs-3-mission-two-weeks/
"SpaceX made a late postponement to the CRS-3/SpX-3 mission to the International Space Station on Thursday, citing “open items” that require additional time to remedy."

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/03/eastern-range-radar-upcoming-launches/
"A fire that impacted a radar asset on Florida’s Eastern Range has resulted in the postponement of two launches from Cape Canaveral."

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Falcon H on 04/15/2014 02:42 pm
I voted 6, but it's starting to look on the optimistic side.

Delays happen, and SpaceX has a lot on their plate right now.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: StarryKnight on 04/15/2014 02:43 pm
Sticking to my estimate of five at this point. I think six is still achievable though.
Same for me. When I picked five back in late December, the Thaicom mission was already slipping into 2014 and seeing all the guesses of 8 or more made me hesitate on only guessing 5. But I considered that a lot of people were making their guesses based on the optimistic statements that were coming from upper level management. Now, overly optimistic statements come from pretty much any company's CEOs and presidents in any industry. The statements are usually best case scenarios and motivation for their workforce and investors. So I take those comments with a grain of salt.

Also, the v1.1 vehicle was still new (only 2 launches at that point) and I figured SpaceX will learn a little more from each launch that would add up to small delays here and there. Plus there's the usual issues associated with scaling up production while maintain quality.

And finally I factored in external delays which are probably the biggest factor in delaying launches - most notable payloads not being ready when expected, but also range conflicts and weather.

So I'm sticking with 5, although 6 would not be a surprise to me at this point.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 04/15/2014 10:15 pm
Given that at least two more SpX CRS missions are planned for this year, beyond CRS-3, and that those will undoubtly be associated with their own delays.... I'll say my guess of at most 6 SpaceX orbital launches this year is looking better all the time.  8)

2 CRS?  Thought I saw the schedule cut to 1 more CRS in Dec.  That would make it closer to 5 per your thinking.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 04/15/2014 11:33 pm
Given that at least two more SpX CRS missions are planned for this year, beyond CRS-3, and that those will undoubtly be associated with their own delays.... I'll say my guess of at most 6 SpaceX orbital launches this year is looking better all the time.  8)

2 CRS?  Thought I saw the schedule cut to 1 more CRS in Dec.  That would make it closer to 5 per your thinking.

A screen grab of the March 27 FPIP (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29401.msg1183105#msg1183105) shows SpX-4, -5, and -6 still being planned for 2014.
 
And people, it's not over until it's over.  Voting closed a long time ago.  We can all calculate the fraction of the year that has elapsed.  Victory laps can wait until next January.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: aga on 04/16/2014 05:34 am
A screen grab of the March 27 FPIP (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29401.msg1183105#msg1183105) shows SpX-4, -5, and -6 still being planned for 2014

acc. to the iss schedule (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32006.msg1175528#msg1175528)
spx-4 is aug 8, spx-5 is nov 26 and spx-6 is already in 2015
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 04/16/2014 05:52 am
A screen grab of the March 27 FPIP (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29401.msg1183105#msg1183105) shows SpX-4, -5, and -6 still being planned for 2014

acc. to the iss schedule (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32006.msg1175528#msg1175528 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32006.msg1175528#msg1175528))
spx-4 is aug 8, spx-5 is nov 26 and spx-6 is already in 2015

And who would dispute anik?  ;)
That one looked ready to to "fall off the edge" but that leaves three, not two, SpX flights in 2014.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: woods170 on 04/16/2014 06:42 am
Given that at least two more SpX CRS missions are planned for this year, beyond CRS-3, and that those will undoubtly be associated with their own delays.... I'll say my guess of at most 6 SpaceX orbital launches this year is looking better all the time.  8)

2 CRS?  Thought I saw the schedule cut to 1 more CRS in Dec.  That would make it closer to 5 per your thinking.
My line of reasoning for coming up with the estimate of only six flights - back when the poll was running - was as follows:
- Four SpX missions planned in 2014. One will undoubtly shift into 2015 (being way too close to the end of 2014). So that leaves two after CRS-3. Those will be delayed as well, since no single CRS mission has so far flown on it's original target date.
- In between those CRS missions SpaceX will be faced with longer-then-expected refurb times for the launchpads and they will run into unexpected anomalies on launches requiring additional investigation.
- Factor in the planned pad abort and in-flight abort missions (to be flown in 2014).
- Guesstimating then resulted in one orbital launch every two months, so six in total.

Most recent schedule I've seen still lists four SpX CRS missions in 2014. Don't know where you got the notion that only two were up for this year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: spectre9 on 04/16/2014 10:04 am
Logged on today not expecting a launch.

This time I was right  ???
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: vapour_nudge on 04/16/2014 12:45 pm
Logged on today not expecting a launch.

This time I was right  ???

Check the weather outlook for the Friday attempt and tell me if you're going to log in on Friday?  ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: WHAP on 04/16/2014 03:25 pm
And people, it's not over until it's over.  Voting closed a long time ago.  We can all calculate the fraction of the year that has elapsed.  Victory laps can wait until next January.

Yeah, but why would that stop the endless debate about something we have no control over?   ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 04/16/2014 06:06 pm
Logged on today not expecting a launch.

This time I was right  ???

I wasn't expecting a launch today, either. ;)

You could do this every day and be right over 350 times this year! :P
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: spectre9 on 04/16/2014 06:09 pm
Logged on today not expecting a launch.

This time I was right  ???

I wasn't expecting a launch today, either. ;)

You could do this every day and be right over 350 times this year! :P

I've been checking in every time there is a new date given. I haven't been keeping up with every slip as they're announced.

I know there have been genuine issues but this all makes SpaceX look very sloppy.

Seems to me like every time they finally do launch we have a giant buzz in the space community and everybody is happy that progress is being made then SpaceX go back to sitting on their hands and (can't speak for others) I get really bored with the whole situation.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim_LAX on 04/16/2014 06:53 pm
Need more drama in your day?  Watch the daytime soap operas.  Launching rockets isn't easy, it can be disapointing at times.  But when it roars into orbit you forget the waiting and it's all worth it. :D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 04/16/2014 07:42 pm
I get really bored with the whole situation.
No one forces you to track SpaceX progress or lack of it.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 04/16/2014 08:04 pm
I get really bored with the whole situation.
No one forces you to track SpaceX progress or lack of it.

Space is hard - also from an armchair...  ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 04/16/2014 08:21 pm
I get really bored with the whole situation.
No one forces you to track SpaceX progress or lack of it.

Space is hard - also from an armchair...  ;)

Yeah, lay off spectre9. Watching people try to launch rockets isn't easy - Boredom can be a killer!

After all, we all know that when SpaceX isn't launching, they are surely "back to sitting on their hands". ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 04/17/2014 03:16 am
Logged on today not expecting a launch.

This time I was right  ???

I wasn't expecting a launch today, either. ;)

You could do this every day and be right over 350 times this year! :P

I've been checking in every time there is a new date given. I haven't been keeping up with every slip as they're announced.

I know there have been genuine issues but this all makes SpaceX look very sloppy.

Seems to me like every time they finally do launch we have a giant buzz in the space community and everybody is happy that progress is being made then SpaceX go back to sitting on their hands and (can't speak for others) I get really bored with the whole situation.

No it doesn't make them look sloppy.  It makes them look careful about their customer's payload and getting things as right as possible before launch.  They had a backup valve but they have a policy of not launching with known issues.
Your bordem or otherwise fortunately has no bearing on when they launch  ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 04/17/2014 12:09 pm
I've been checking in every time there is a new date given. I haven't been keeping up with every slip as they're announced.

I know there have been genuine issues but this all makes SpaceX look very sloppy.

Seems to me like every time they finally do launch we have a giant buzz in the space community and everybody is happy that progress is being made then SpaceX go back to sitting on their hands and (can't speak for others) I get really bored with the whole situation.

No it doesn't make them look sloppy.  It makes them look careful about their customer's payload and getting things as right as possible before launch.  They had a backup valve but they have a policy of not launching with known issues.
Your bordem or otherwise fortunately has no bearing on when they launch  ;)

In addition:
AmericaSpace had a long articel for month's about Challenger disaster. (Edited)
There were also mentioned the problem: launch with known issues (much bigger issues...)

Quote
One of the members of the Rogers inquiry was the celebrated physicist Richard Feynman, who judged the cavalier attitude of NASA and Thiokol as representing “a kind of Russian roulette … [the shuttle] flies [with O-ring erosion] and nothing happens. Then it is suggested, therefore, that the risk is no longer so high for the next flights. We can lower our standards a little bit because we got away with it last time. You got away with it, but it shouldn’t be done over and over again like that.” Mike Mullane scornfully called it the “normalization of deviance.”

The whole articel is worth to read.
http://www.americaspace.com/?p=48451
http://www.americaspace.com/?p=48453
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AncientU on 04/17/2014 01:24 pm
... then SpaceX go back to sitting on their hands ...
Padrat or any other SpaceXers want to comment?
(I suspect they find something to do... see quote below.)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: llanitedave on 04/17/2014 03:16 pm
I've been checking in every time there is a new date given. I haven't been keeping up with every slip as they're announced.

I know there have been genuine issues but this all makes SpaceX look very sloppy.

Seems to me like every time they finally do launch we have a giant buzz in the space community and everybody is happy that progress is being made then SpaceX go back to sitting on their hands and (can't speak for others) I get really bored with the whole situation.

No it doesn't make them look sloppy.  It makes them look careful about their customer's payload and getting things as right as possible before launch.  They had a backup valve but they have a policy of not launching with known issues.
Your bordem or otherwise fortunately has no bearing on when they launch  ;)

In addition:
AmericaSpace had a long articel for month's about Columbia disaster.
There were also mentioned the problem: launch with known issues (much bigger issues...)

Quote
One of the members of the Rogers inquiry was the celebrated physicist Richard Feynman, who judged the cavalier attitude of NASA and Thiokol as representing “a kind of Russian roulette … [the shuttle] flies [with O-ring erosion] and nothing happens. Then it is suggested, therefore, that the risk is no longer so high for the next flights. We can lower our standards a little bit because we got away with it last time. You got away with it, but it shouldn’t be done over and over again like that.” Mike Mullane scornfully called it the “normalization of deviance.”

The whole articel is worth to read.
http://www.americaspace.com/?p=48451 (http://www.americaspace.com/?p=48451)
http://www.americaspace.com/?p=48453 (http://www.americaspace.com/?p=48453)

Quibble.  That was Challenger, not Columbia.  Although there are disturbing parallels between the two.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 04/17/2014 04:00 pm
I've been checking in every time there is a new date given. I haven't been keeping up with every slip as they're announced.

I know there have been genuine issues but this all makes SpaceX look very sloppy.

Seems to me like every time they finally do launch we have a giant buzz in the space community and everybody is happy that progress is being made then SpaceX go back to sitting on their hands and (can't speak for others) I get really bored with the whole situation.

No it doesn't make them look sloppy.  It makes them look careful about their customer's payload and getting things as right as possible before launch.  They had a backup valve but they have a policy of not launching with known issues.
Your bordem or otherwise fortunately has no bearing on when they launch  ;)

In addition:
AmericaSpace had a long articel for month's about Columbia disaster.
There were also mentioned the problem: launch with known issues (much bigger issues...)

Quote
One of the members of the Rogers inquiry was the celebrated physicist Richard Feynman, who judged the cavalier attitude of NASA and Thiokol as representing “a kind of Russian roulette … [the shuttle] flies [with O-ring erosion] and nothing happens. Then it is suggested, therefore, that the risk is no longer so high for the next flights. We can lower our standards a little bit because we got away with it last time. You got away with it, but it shouldn’t be done over and over again like that.” Mike Mullane scornfully called it the “normalization of deviance.”

The whole articel is worth to read.
http://www.americaspace.com/?p=48451
http://www.americaspace.com/?p=48453

you feel history of mistakes is being repeated ?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 04/17/2014 06:53 pm

Quibble.  That was Challenger, not Columbia.  Although there are disturbing parallels between the two.

Oh, yes, of course. Thanks for the correction.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 04/17/2014 08:07 pm

you feel history of mistakes is being repeated ?

No, SpaceX seems to be on the right way, they want really be the most reliable launch provider.

But there can be seen many criticism about slipped launches, slower production rate as planned, reports about issues, etc. Because of this voices it is important to recall the history, that the other side is not brighter: there can be huge problems behind the scenes.

I think SpaceX chosed a very hard way: the principle of "stop the process if you find a problem".

The opposit of it is: "avoid your process will be stopped by problems".
The main difference between them, how you focus on problems: you want to see, feel all of the problems (and you have to solve them quickly and effective) or you don't want to see the "small" problems, only if they are "serious enough" (if you cannot avoid stopping the process). This is the biggest difference between companies, this is company culture how to deal with problems (and with the people).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lurker Steve on 04/17/2014 08:32 pm

you feel history of mistakes is being repeated ?

No, SpaceX seems to be on the right way, they want really be the most reliable launch provider.


They are definitely striving for reliability. They just aren't achieving it yet.

They test each engine individually.
Then they test each engine and the stage as a completed unit before it ships to the launch pad.
Then, at the launch pad, they perform a WDR, and often a Hot Fire as part of the launch prep.
They are definitely exercising the system, but somehow gremlins are sneaking in regardless of their test procedures.

For instance, despite all of the testing, I can remember at 2 or 3 flights where there was an issue with an engine that needed to be addressed at the pad. Despite all of the glee about the tech who crawled into the inner stage with tin snips and trimmed the engine nozzle on the first F9 flight, why was that necessary in the first place ? Why did the engine ship with the wrong length engine nozzle ?

It looks like there is stuff getting caught at the pad that should be getting caught much earlier in the design / build process. If they want to up the launch tempo, they need to figure out why these quality issues aren't getting caught in Hawthorne and McGregor. You can't depend on the guys at the pad to detect and fix all the issues.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 04/17/2014 08:47 pm

you feel history of mistakes is being repeated ?

No, SpaceX seems to be on the right way, they want really be the most reliable launch provider.


They are definitely striving for reliability. They just aren't achieving it yet.

They test each engine individually.
Then they test each engine and the stage as a completed unit before it ships to the launch pad.
Then, at the launch pad, they perform a WDR, and often a Hot Fire as part of the launch prep.
They are definitely exercising the system, but somehow gremlins are sneaking in regardless of their test procedures.

For instance, despite all of the testing, I can remember at 2 or 3 flights where there was an issue with an engine that needed to be addressed at the pad. Despite all of the glee about the tech who crawled into the inner stage with tin snips and trimmed the engine nozzle on the first F9 flight, why was that necessary in the first place ? Why did the engine ship with the wrong length engine nozzle ?

It looks like there is stuff getting caught at the pad that should be getting caught much earlier in the design / build process. If they want to up the launch tempo, they need to figure out why these quality issues aren't getting caught in Hawthorne and McGregor. You can't depend on the guys at the pad to detect and fix all the issues.

You have right, they have to solve many problems, also inthe the testing processes. This is normal.
But this is not that, why they WILL be the most reliable. Apparently you didn't understood what I wrote.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 04/17/2014 08:56 pm

For instance, despite all of the testing, I can remember at 2 or 3 flights where there was an issue with an engine that needed to be addressed at the pad. Despite all of the glee about the tech who crawled into the inner stage with tin snips and trimmed the engine nozzle on the first F9 flight, why was that necessary in the first place ? Why did the engine ship with the wrong length engine nozzle ?

It didn't ship with the wrong length nozzle.

You might want to do a bit more research. There was damage to the nozzle and the decision was taken to trim back the damaged part and take the performance hit.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lurker Steve on 04/17/2014 09:15 pm

For instance, despite all of the testing, I can remember at 2 or 3 flights where there was an issue with an engine that needed to be addressed at the pad. Despite all of the glee about the tech who crawled into the inner stage with tin snips and trimmed the engine nozzle on the first F9 flight, why was that necessary in the first place ? Why did the engine ship with the wrong length engine nozzle ?

It didn't ship with the wrong length nozzle.

You might want to do a bit more research. There was damage to the nozzle and the decision was taken to trim back the damaged part and take the performance hit.

You're right. I remembered wrong.

But was it damaged in shipment, or during assembly at the Cape ?

A common theme in every quality system is that the farther down the production chain a problem gets, the more expensive it is to fix.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Rocket Science on 04/17/2014 09:21 pm

For instance, despite all of the testing, I can remember at 2 or 3 flights where there was an issue with an engine that needed to be addressed at the pad. Despite all of the glee about the tech who crawled into the inner stage with tin snips and trimmed the engine nozzle on the first F9 flight, why was that necessary in the first place ? Why did the engine ship with the wrong length engine nozzle ?

It didn't ship with the wrong length nozzle.

You might want to do a bit more research. There was damage to the nozzle and the decision was taken to trim back the damaged part and take the performance hit.

You're right. I remembered wrong.

But was it damaged in shipment, or during assembly at the Cape ?

A common theme in every quality system is that the farther down the production chain a problem gets, the more expensive it is to fix.
It was a crack Steve, I don't recall seeing any published cause that I'm aware of. Perhaps someone on here knows/remembers?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lurker Steve on 04/17/2014 09:30 pm
The reason I mention that the Launchpad is the wrong place to find problems, is because that is the bottleneck.
They can really only work on 1 launcher in the integration building at a time. Work on the next launcher doesn't start until they can launch this one.

Except for the F9 test stand, they should be able to test and work on almost everything else in parallel, with work happening on multiple cores at the same time.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: ugordan on 04/17/2014 09:36 pm
Except for the F9 test stand, they should be able to test and work on almost everything else in parallel, with work happening on multiple cores at the same time.

Emphasis on *almost everything*. Look up the reason for the cracked nozzle and you will see why it wasn't picked up until the stages were integrated and the vehicle put through its paces on the launch pad.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: sdsds on 04/18/2014 08:06 pm
Congratulations to SpaceX for finding a hole in the clouds today!
With CRS-3 now in the books, I would nonetheless want to decrement my prediction from 7 to 6.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: sublimemarsupial on 04/18/2014 09:22 pm
During the CRS-3 post flight presser, Elon said they should still be able to do 10 flights this year total, and that the question is not pad capability but core production, and specifically the production of one specific "injector casting", but they think they have the issues with that resolved.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 04/18/2014 09:23 pm
Musk in postlaunch presser (from live broadcast): "We will do ten, close to ten, launches this year".
Will need to verify on the replay.
Anyone else hear that?
 
edit: I guess sublimemarsupial heard something like that
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 04/18/2014 09:43 pm
Eight launches (ten minus two already done) in eight months? COME ON. This has chances of snowman in Hell. ::)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 04/18/2014 09:45 pm
Eight launches (ten minus two already done) in eight months? COME ON. This has chances of snowman in Hell. ::)

We'll see; that's all I'm going to say on that subject.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Owlon on 04/18/2014 10:00 pm
Eight launches (ten minus two already done) in eight months? COME ON. This has chances of snowman in Hell. ::)

Keep in mind that they launched the Thaicom and SES flights just over a month apart, with Christmas and New Year's in between, and that they're talking about launching the first Orbcomm flight in a month. As the good Space Brit said, we'll see.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: spectre9 on 04/18/2014 10:03 pm
SpaceX back on track. Lots of optimism, lots of hope. 9 launches easy  8)

Perhaps NASA was just a tricky and fussy customer and commercial launches will get knocked over in quick fashion.

GO SPACEX!!!!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: simonbp on 04/18/2014 10:06 pm
Eight launches (ten minus two already done) in eight months? COME ON. This has chances of snowman in Hell. ::)

Keep in mind that they launched the Thaicom and SES flights just over a month apart, with Christmas and New Year's in between, and that they're talking about launching the first Orbcomm flight in a month. As the good Space Brit said, we'll see.

Which points to part of the difference. Non-ISS commercial satellite flights are a lot more straightforward, without narrow launch windows and one-off experimental requirements.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lurker Steve on 04/18/2014 10:06 pm
Musk in postlaunch presser (from live broadcast): "We will do ten, close to ten, launches this year".
Will need to verify on the replay.
Anyone else hear that?
 
edit: I guess sublimemarsupial heard something like that

Let's assume he is rounding up.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: aero on 04/18/2014 10:15 pm
Well, they did 2 launches in 1/3 of the year, that rate gives 4 launches for the rest (2/3) of the year for a total of 6. I really think that 60 days between launches is pessimistic even though it is very optimistic compared to their track record so far this year. (130 days between launches.)

They just might still hit my target of 9 for the year but year end will be busy.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AncientU on 04/18/2014 10:17 pm
Musk in postlaunch presser (from live broadcast): "We will do ten, close to ten, launches this year".
Will need to verify on the replay.
Anyone else hear that?
 
edit: I guess sublimemarsupial heard something like that

Let's assume he is rounding up.
Maybe he's just cheering for his personal vote of 10.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: mme on 04/18/2014 10:19 pm
Musk in postlaunch presser (from live broadcast): "We will do ten, close to ten, launches this year".
...
Let's assume he is rounding up.
Why assume anything?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 04/18/2014 10:20 pm
Keep in mind that they launched the Thaicom and SES flights just over a month apart,
Soooo? They would have to pull it off eight times in row... and no slips AT ALL. Not gonna happen. ::)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Owlon on 04/18/2014 10:56 pm
Keep in mind that they launched the Thaicom and SES flights just over a month apart,
Soooo? They would have to pull it off eight times in row... and no slips AT ALL. Not gonna happen. ::)

Maybe they plan on shortening the gap between launches to 20 days, leaving them a good chunk of margin. I'm just saying don't eliminate the possibility outright. I mean, I voted for 8 launches myself; I don't think 10 are going to happen.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: ey on 04/18/2014 11:12 pm
Hopefully after they've gotten more launches under their belt, it'll become relatively routine and there will be fewer slips.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Roy_H on 04/19/2014 12:25 am
Hans Koenigsmann, SpaceX Vice-President of Mission Assurance said that they are working towards a goal of launching in "less than 3 weeks" between flights.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jcc on 04/19/2014 12:41 am
During the CRS-3 post flight presser, Elon said they should still be able to do 10 flights this year total, and that the question is not pad capability but core production, and specifically the production of one specific "injector casting", but they think they have the issues with that resolved.

Would the injector casting be part of the Merlin engines? If so, they need at least 10 per vehicle, but I thought they had been stockpiling Merlins.

Is it something they are 3D printing? If so, are they running into quality issues?

All questions no answers, except confirmation that having production set up to produce a core a month is not the same as actually producing a core a month.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Roy_H on 04/19/2014 01:18 am
During the CRS-3 post flight presser, Elon said they should still be able to do 10 flights this year total, and that the question is not pad capability but core production, and specifically the production of one specific "injector casting", but they think they have the issues with that resolved.

Would the injector casting be part of the Merlin engines? If so, they need at least 10 per vehicle, but I thought they had been stockpiling Merlins.

Is it something they are 3D printing? If so, are they running into quality issues?

All questions no answers, except confirmation that having production set up to produce a core a month is not the same as actually producing a core a month.

Someone said the injector casting was for the pintle. The pintle is part of the Merlin engine (regulates fuel flow). Injector casting is not 3D printing. Most difficulties in production of a part comes down to quality issues or cost issues. Since they have decided on the method of production "injection molding" then it must be a quality issue.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: aero on 04/19/2014 02:13 am
How many of the flights are totally within SpaceX control?

With care, they can likely avoid delays caused by leaky valves and greasy sewing machines, but competing ISS traffic and broken ISS hardware is out of their hands.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: edkyle99 on 04/19/2014 02:24 am
How many of the flights are totally within SpaceX control?

With care, they can likely avoid delays caused by leaky valves and greasy sewing machines, but competing ISS traffic and broken ISS hardware is out of their hands.
Not to mention the occasional commercial satellite delay, a problem that has sometimes afflicted Arianespace.

 - Ed Kyle
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 04/19/2014 02:48 am
How many of the flights are totally within SpaceX control?

With care, they can likely avoid delays caused by leaky valves and greasy sewing machines, but competing ISS traffic and broken ISS hardware is out of their hands.
Not to mention the occasional commercial satellite delay, a problem that has sometimes afflicted Arianespace.

 - Ed Kyle

....which is why I'm still in awe about how Arianespace managed to keep launching 10+ times a year during the Ariane 4 days (10 A4+1 A5 in 1996/98, 11 A4+1 A5 in 1997...), or McD/Boeing keep launching Delta IIs by almost a dozen per year. Heck, even getting to the launch rate of Lockheed (Martin)'s Atlas-Centaur in the 1990s would be awesome.....

(I'm already discounting the Russians because they work with launches in vastly different manners)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 04/19/2014 04:46 pm
During the CRS-3 post flight presser, Elon said they should still be able to do 10 flights this year total, and that the question is not pad capability but core production, and specifically the production of one specific "injector casting", but they think they have the issues with that resolved.

Elon needs to have a chat with is VP and get on the same page :o

Read above (or maybe that text got trashed),she said core production was so high
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 04/19/2014 04:54 pm
During the CRS-3 post flight presser, Elon said they should still be able to do 10 flights this year total, and that the question is not pad capability but core production, and specifically the production of one specific "injector casting", but they think they have the issues with that resolved.

Elon needs to have a chat with is VP and get on the same page :o

Read above (or maybe that text got trashed),she said core production was so high

core are great, just a small issue with powerplants
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 04/19/2014 05:00 pm
During the CRS-3 post flight presser, Elon said they should still be able to do 10 flights this year total, and that the question is not pad capability but core production, and specifically the production of one specific "injector casting", but they think they have the issues with that resolved.

Elon needs to have a chat with is VP and get on the same page :o

Read above (or maybe that text got trashed),she said core production was so high

core are great, just a small issue with powerplants

thx for that ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 04/19/2014 05:17 pm
Musk in postlaunch presser (from live broadcast): "We will do ten, close to ten, launches this year".
Will need to verify on the replay.
Anyone else hear that?
 
edit: I guess sublimemarsupial heard something like that

Let's assume he is rounding up.

Let's assume that as the CEO he has some idea of what the company is capable of and is giving a perhaps aspirational, but nevertheless educated guess. Or I guess we could assume he's evil and lying and stuff. I know which one fits my world view.

Maybe he's just cheering for his personal vote of 10.

YES! maybe he actually has an ID here... but which one? Not me...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: mme on 04/19/2014 05:27 pm
During the CRS-3 post flight presser, Elon said they should still be able to do 10 flights this year total, and that the question is not pad capability but core production, and specifically the production of one specific "injector casting", but they think they have the issues with that resolved.

Elon needs to have a chat with is VP and get on the same page :o

Read above (or maybe that text got trashed),she said core production was so high
Elon did not say core. He said vehicle production. He also said it came down to "one particular part, which is an injector casting."  It's hard to fly a rocket without all the parts required to build it. :o

Elon's actual statement. (http://youtu.be/8G2pRVQ1JhA?t=10m30s)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 04/19/2014 05:52 pm
During the CRS-3 post flight presser, Elon said they should still be able to do 10 flights this year total, and that the question is not pad capability but core production, and specifically the production of one specific "injector casting", but they think they have the issues with that resolved.

Would the injector casting be part of the Merlin engines? If so, they need at least 10 per vehicle, but I thought they had been stockpiling Merlins.

Is it something they are 3D printing? If so, are they running into quality issues?

All questions no answers, except confirmation that having production set up to produce a core a month is not the same as actually producing a core a month.

Someone said the injector casting was for the pintle. The pintle is part of the Merlin engine (regulates fuel flow). Injector casting is not 3D printing. Most difficulties in production of a part comes down to quality issues or cost issues. Since they have decided on the method of production "injection molding" then it must be a quality issue.

Injection casting (popular name for it is die casting) is a difficult method for casting of lightweight metal parts (light material - f.e aluminium + thin intersections - f.e. a plate).
Because the thin intersections result speedy cooling of metal in the die + there are many-many parameters of the casting machine, alloy and die, there need month's until all quality requirements from a part could be achieved. In this time period we don't speak about quality issues. Better to say scrap percentage - often up to 100%.

The problem is that you cannot make rapid optimisation: with the actual parameters you cast a new batch, after that you inspect them (mainly 100% X-raying, because the problems are within the metal - f.e. bubbles) and decide the next optimisation. This is often not only machine parameters (pressure, speed, etc) or die parameters (cooling/heating, etc): the die has to be often also modified - and it takes days or weeks (the huge casting die has to be disassembled, change made with machining or electo-erosion and assembled once again).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2A7oUMeLmM
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: simonbp on 04/19/2014 06:15 pm
How many of the flights are totally within SpaceX control?

With care, they can likely avoid delays caused by leaky valves and greasy sewing machines, but competing ISS traffic and broken ISS hardware is out of their hands.
Not to mention the occasional commercial satellite delay, a problem that has sometimes afflicted Arianespace.

 - Ed Kyle

....which is why I'm still in awe about how Arianespace managed to keep launching 10+ times a year during the Ariane 4 days (10 A4+1 A5 in 1996/98, 11 A4+1 A5 in 1997...), or McD/Boeing keep launching Delta IIs by almost a dozen per year. Heck, even getting to the launch rate of Lockheed (Martin)'s Atlas-Centaur in the 1990s would be awesome.....

(I'm already discounting the Russians because they work with launches in vastly different manners)

Shuttle launched nearly as frequently in its heyday, and it was a bit more of an operation to pull off than an Ariane 4.

SpaceX's online manifest lists 12 more flights for the rest of this year. Of those, three are CRS flights, one is  GoreSat, and the other eight are commercial launches. I think it's reasonable to expect at least half of the commercial sats to launch (given the lack of problems from the previous commercial launches), plus one or two of the NASA launches. So, 6-8 more launches this year for 8-10 total. That's within one sigma of the vote predictions above.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: vapour_nudge on 04/22/2014 09:19 am
Elon Musk was just quoted as saying he still expects 10 flights this year. That's one a month from here on.  He's the man with the money so 10 launches looks like the number and I've been pesimistic at 7.

If true that will beat the scheduled 9 launches for Atlas V (3 launched with 6 to go) for the most US launches this year. Only time will tell.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 04/22/2014 12:36 pm
one is  GoreSat,

Not happening this year
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 04/22/2014 01:08 pm
He's the man with the money so 10 launches looks like the number and I've been pesimistic at 7.
Protip: throwing money at problem does not solve it automagically.

Only time will tell.
You do not have to wait. Past performance says they will fall short of target.

In past year they claimed at one point as much as eight. Reality: three. Talk is cheap. ::)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lurker Steve on 04/22/2014 01:12 pm
Or I guess we could assume he's evil and lying and stuff. I know which one fits my world view.


Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 04/22/2014 01:31 pm
Or I guess we could assume he's evil and lying and stuff. I know which one fits my world view.
I will turn it around. If he will NOT achieve this "ten launches" target for 2014, will you agree that he is "evil and lying and stuff"?

Maybe that will make you realize fallacy committed in this citation above.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lurker Steve on 04/22/2014 01:57 pm
Or I guess we could assume he's evil and lying and stuff. I know which one fits my world view.
I will turn it around. If he will NOT achieve this "ten launches" target for 2014, will you agree that he is "evil and lying and stuff"?

Maybe that will make you realize fallacy committed in this citation above.

Total up the number of SpaceX launches in 2012 and 2013 combined.

I don't know if Musk is lying, but they sure aren't doing 10 launches this year.
But, from a marketing / customer relations point of view, they haven't gotten around to sorting which missions they can realistically launch this year, and which they can defer. If EM says only 4 more launches this year, some of those guys at the end of the list start wondering if they are the ones not launching.

I wonder if NASA will ask SpaceX to look at the thrusters on the Dragon again, after there was a partial failure 2 missions in a row. That just might delay the next CRS flight.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 04/22/2014 03:54 pm
Or I guess we could assume he's evil and lying and stuff. I know which one fits my world view.
I will turn it around. If he will NOT achieve this "ten launches" target for 2014, will you agree that he is "evil and lying and stuff"?
Nope... I would assume that he gave "a perhaps aspirational, but nevertheless educated guess" which turned out to be wrong. (the part Steve cut away and you didn't restore or didn't see)
Quote
Maybe that will make you realize fallacy committed in this citation above.
No fallacy on my end, you've posed a false dichotomy, because you cut away " giving a perhaps aspirational, but nevertheless educated guess." from what I said (as did Steve... no idea why)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lurker Steve on 04/22/2014 04:00 pm
Because you wanted a repeat of Dr. Evil aka Elon Musk.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 04/23/2014 10:34 am
Nope... I would assume that he gave "a perhaps aspirational, but nevertheless educated guess" which turned out to be wrong. (the part Steve cut away and you didn't restore or didn't see)
Whatever.

Maybe I should then speak in more general terms. I find ridiculous that saying obvious things (like SpaceX will almost certainly launch way less than 10 times in 2014) causes some people to imply that I insinuate Musk is lying evil overlord or something. Completely ridiculous.  ::)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 04/23/2014 02:55 pm
He's the man with the money so 10 launches looks like the number and I've been pesimistic at 7.
Protip: throwing money at problem does not solve it automagically.

Only time will tell.
You do not have to wait. Past performance says they will fall short of target.

In past year they claimed at one point as much as eight. Reality: three. Talk is cheap. ::)

I prefer the term 'spin".    Truth of the matter CRS-3 is the first launch of 2014 and that's sad performance.  Remember the launch in Jan was mostly a carryover from Dec. of 2013.

Let's see how well CRS-4 and CRS-5 go before we pop the cork on success.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: llanitedave on 04/23/2014 06:43 pm
Carryovers count.  If you drop carryovers from one end of the year, you have to be willing to add them to the other end of the year -- you'll have to credit an extra launch to 2013, and any launches that get pushed into 2015 would still be credited to 2014.

You can't have uncredited launches drifting about like rogue planets...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: oiorionsbelt on 04/23/2014 07:39 pm
SpaceX is a work in progress. They are currently aiming for 1 launch per month or better. They have demonstrated 2 launches in 33 days once already.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 04/24/2014 12:13 am
Carryovers count. 


No one said they didn't. 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 04/24/2014 12:25 am
Carryovers count.  If you drop carryovers from one end of the year, you have to be willing to add them to the other end of the year -- you'll have to credit an extra launch to 2013, and any launches that get pushed into 2015 would still be credited to 2014.

You can't have uncredited launches drifting about like rogue planets...


this is on a slipper slope.. maybe time to consult with the " lying evil overlord or something"
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 04/24/2014 12:34 am
SpaceX is a work in progress. They are currently aiming for 1 launch per month or better. They have demonstrated 2 launches in 33 days once already.

Now they think they can do the next 8 in a row.

SpaceX has always had a pretty major problem with over-promising.  Their performance itself hasn't been bad, IMHO, but the constant over-the-top optimism seriously cuts into their credibility:

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2009/01/musk-ambition-spacex-aim-for-fully-reusable-falcon-9/

"By flight six we think it’s highly likely we’ll recover the first stage, and when we get it back we’ll see what survived through re-entry, and what got fried, and carry on with the process."

Note the date - January 2009.  He was talking about version 1.0, and he was talking about that occurring in about 2010.  Still hasn't happened.

I still salute their achievements, especially the recent successful water landing of the CRS-3 first stage, but they need to learn from their past over-prediction mistakes, and be a little realistic.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 04/24/2014 01:09 am
It's better to be overly optimistic than overly pessmistic.

Lessons about leadership:
Optimisim give goals to strive for even if you don't make them you acheive a lot.
Pessimism makes people work only good enough and acheive less, fullfilling the pessimism.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: su27k on 04/24/2014 02:40 am
Now they think they can do the next 8 in a row.

SpaceX has always had a pretty major problem with over-promising. 

I think that's a feature for a company in startup mode, not a bug.

Quote
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2009/01/musk-ambition-spacex-aim-for-fully-reusable-falcon-9/

"By flight six we think it’s highly likely we’ll recover the first stage, and when we get it back we’ll see what survived through re-entry, and what got fried, and carry on with the process."

Note the date - January 2009.  He was talking about version 1.0, and he was talking about that occurring in about 2010.  Still hasn't happened.

The full quote is "With Falcon I’s fourth launch, the first stage got cooked, so we’re going to beef up the Thermal Protection System (TPS). By flight six we think it’s highly likely we’ll recover the first stage, and when we get it back we’ll see what survived through re-entry, and what got fried, and carry on with the process.", he's talking about Falcon 1, not F9 1.0.

It's interesting to read the old quotes, such as "most exciting thing I’ve love to do is a flyback first stage. We’re just missing the billion dollars of capital it would take to try to do that.", he's actually very cautious here.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: meekGee on 04/24/2014 03:37 am
Besides, SpaceX might be behind schedule with respect to their near-term forecast, but they are waaaay ahead of schedule in other things.

People weren't expecting F91.1 to be reusable at all.
Or for them to be working on Methane propulsion.
Or for them to advance with Pad 39a and have concrete plans for the BFR.

So I'll forgive them the slip in the number of flights... 

Just go back 1-2 years, and try to think how many of the things we know of today were completely ridiculed back then.

Then give it another year...  and flight rate will pick up too - as a natural consequence of the big things they are working on.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: ncb1397 on 04/24/2014 04:10 am

I prefer the term 'spin".    Truth of the matter CRS-3 is the first launch of 2014 and that's sad performance.  Remember the launch in Jan was mostly a carryover from Dec. of 2013.

Let's see how well CRS-4 and CRS-5 go before we pop the cork on success.

Falcon has launched orbitally twice in 2014, not once. If that is a sad state of affairs then the following are also just as sad:

2014 luanches as of April 23rd, 2014
Delta 4: 1
Antares: 1
Ariane: 2
GSLV: 1
PSLV: 1
Proton: 2
H-2A: 1
CZ: 1
Shavit: 1

I will give it to Atlas and the Russians though, Atlas has done 1 more than Falcon at 3 and the Russians are at 8 between the Soyuz line and Protons. Anyways, SpaceX is near the top of the pack.

edit: At this point, SpaceX is only failing compared to their own seemingly unlimited ambition and not compared to their actual competitors(in launch rate or otherwise)

edit 2: If we compare rocket production company to rocket production company. Only TsSKB Progress with their Soyuz vehicles and ULA with both Atlas and Delta are ahead of SpaceX in launch vehicle flight rate in 2014. A bit unfair if you consider ULA is Boeing and Lockheed Martin as a joint venture and the other one is more or less Roscosmos itself.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: GalacticIntruder on 04/24/2014 05:58 am
SpaceX should be gravy for the next 3 launches. The problem comes from CRS4, those always throw curve-balls. Unless SpaceX can set aside CRS5 and CRS6, then I see no way, they can get to the rest of their 2014 manifest. Getting more than 5 for the remainder of the year will be daunting. 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 04/24/2014 01:51 pm
A bit unfair if you consider ULA is Boeing and Lockheed Martin as a joint venture

No, it is a separate company, no different than Spacex
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: mme on 04/24/2014 05:45 pm
A bit unfair if you consider ULA is Boeing and Lockheed Martin as a joint venture

No, it is a separate company, no different than Spacex
One company that inherited three seasoned LVs and I assume (which is dangerous) a large number of personnel experienced in building and flying those LVs. Not a bad thing, but a different thing.

Edit: typo.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 04/26/2014 03:10 am
...
For instance, despite all of the testing, I can remember at 2 or 3 flights where there was an issue with an engine that needed to be addressed at the pad. Despite all of the glee about the tech who crawled into the inner stage with tin snips and trimmed the engine nozzle on the first F9 flight, why was that necessary in the first place ? Why did the engine ship with the wrong length engine nozzle ?
...
The problem was a cracked nozzle extension. If I remember correctly, it was because a nitrogen purge was fluttering the (nearly soda can thin) nozzle extension that caused the crack.

EDIT: Also, looks like my estimate of 6 is on-track. Right before a launch, with all the delays and inevitable issues (happens with every launch if you look closely enough), 6 feels too optimistic. Right after a launch, it feels pessimistic. I think it's doable.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 05/12/2014 12:37 pm
With latest slip, it's looking more and more bleak for SpaceX to achieve not only pie-in-sky target of 10, but even groupthink result here (eight). I voted originally 7, and now I am between 6 and 5. Leaning to 5.

And this is embarassing, considering they apparently want in long term to have single digit days or even x-hours turnaround. They can forget about it as long as they have these problems cropping up. It not first or second, but n-th time when they have pad-related problem. I almost wonder if it (launch pad) is where they cut corners too much in quest of lowering costs.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 05/12/2014 12:59 pm
Seven was my number, wondering if we will get seven this year, pad issues need to get cleared.. Impact on the pad there lead to large downtimes with access to the range. May need to test sooner. Hot fire planning the day before launch has been a failure.. better planning is needed.  and No Agile will not work.. 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: JamesH on 05/12/2014 02:37 pm
With latest slip, it's looking more and more bleak for SpaceX to achieve not only pie-in-sky target of 10, but even groupthink result here (eight). I voted originally 7, and now I am between 6 and 5. Leaning to 5.

And this is embarassing, considering they apparently want in long term to have single digit days or even x-hours turnaround. They can forget about it as long as they have these problems cropping up. It not first or second, but n-th time when they have pad-related problem. I almost wonder if it (launch pad) is where they cut corners too much in quest of lowering costs.

Not sure bleak is the word I would use. If SpaceX doesn't make 7, or 8 or 10 flights this year - is that a problem? To them, or their customers. I seriously doubt it. It's only a problem to commentators who like to see rocket launches. Their customers know this is early days and delays are to be expected - in fact they are expected even with more established launch providers. A delay usually mean more likelihood of success.

I also don't think it's embarrassing. Their single digit days between flights are predicated on re-usability. And that is still under development. As is their launch pad process - remember, this is a young company. For each and every delay that happens, they learn something, so its less likely to happen in the future.
Title: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jakusb on 05/12/2014 04:02 pm
Please stay realistic and give them some credit. They recycled the pad in recorded time. With a launch date well before anyone's expectation. I guess all were expecting an initial launch date of May 22nd orso. Gremlins on the pad (or Murphy) prevented them to launch this time. Gremlins they pretty certain will tame soon enough.
Don't punish them for attempting a launch so quick after crs3. It was a good attempt with again much lessons learned and plenty of experienced gained with all the countless things that did go as planned.
People tend to forget the importance of the latter. ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Llian Rhydderch on 05/12/2014 04:49 pm
Please stay realistic and give them some credit. They recycled the pad in recorded time. With a launch date well before anyone's expectation. I guess all were expecting an initial launch date of May 22nd orso. Gremlins on the pad (or Murphy) prevented them to launch this time. Gremlins they pretty certain will tame soon enough.
Don't punish them for attempting a launch so quick after crs3. It was a good attempt with again much lessons learned and plenty of experienced gained with all the countless things that did go as planned.
People tend to forget the importance of the latter. ;)

I agree with you.

But at the end of the day, it won't matter at all what various anonymous people have said on the internet.

SpaceX will succeed or fail in the market.  And the possibility of success will only be improved by aiming for aggressive goals--like faster rocket launch rates on a single pad--as SpaceX will improve through that process.

The slight delay with this particular launch will make no difference in the long term, except to the extent that it will have played a very small role in the iterative/incremental improvements of SpaceX launch processes and design of future pad infrastructure and pad operations.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 05/12/2014 04:51 pm
Getting 6 orbital launches this year (my vote) while also preparing Falcon Heavy and getting a launch abort test or two done for Dragon Crew (with the fancy abort thrusters) and all the crazy progress they've had with F9R is NOT what I would call embarrassing.

They're not going to get 10 launches this year. Maybe next year. Becoming the largest launch provider on the planet won't happen overnight, although it does look more and more inevitable for 2017 or 2018. 2015 they may even eclipse ULA (tough to call right now, but it's possible) on number of launches.

SpaceX fans need to learn patience.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 05/12/2014 08:52 pm
Getting 6 orbital launches this year (my vote) while also preparing Falcon Heavy and getting a launch abort test or two done for Dragon Crew (with the fancy abort thrusters) and all the crazy progress they've had with F9R is NOT what I would call embarrassing.
Maybe you should wait until they actually do it before saying it?  ::)

SpaceX fans need to learn patience.
It is not about patience or lack of it. It is about bombastic SpaceX claims versus mundane reality.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: JamesH on 05/12/2014 09:52 pm
Since when has "Hope to get 10 launches in this year" been bombastic? Bombastic is "Goddamn YES, we will launch 10 flights this YEAR YEAH! And we will recover a couple of stages. YEAH!". Which I am pretty sure I never heard.

As far as I can tell, although they haven't got as much done this year so far as they may have hoped, they have still got lots more done than anyone else, using less money.

In other news...

Looks like the next Delta launch is going to be delayed, so better get the pitchforks ready.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 05/13/2014 04:57 am
Since when has "Hope to get 10 launches in this year" been bombastic? Bombastic is "Goddamn YES, we will launch 10 flights this YEAR YEAH! And we will recover a couple of stages. YEAH!". Which I am pretty sure I never heard.

As far as I can tell, although they haven't got as much done this year so far as they may have hoped, they have still got lots more done than anyone else, using less money.

In other news...

Looks like the next Delta launch is going to be delayed, so better get the pitchforks ready.
Cripes, I thought delays only happened to SpaceX   ::)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: woods170 on 05/13/2014 07:00 am
Since when has "Hope to get 10 launches in this year" been bombastic? Bombastic is "Goddamn YES, we will launch 10 flights this YEAR YEAH! And we will recover a couple of stages. YEAH!". Which I am pretty sure I never heard.

As far as I can tell, although they haven't got as much done this year so far as they may have hoped, they have still got lots more done than anyone else, using less money.

In other news...

Looks like the next Delta launch is going to be delayed, so better get the pitchforks ready.

And so is one of the next Ariane flights (V218). The world is coming to an end... ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: JamesH on 05/14/2014 09:16 am
And it sounds like SLS is also slipping. From Tweet from Jeff Foust....

"Bob Cabana on first SLS launch, targeted late '17: "Is it going to slip into (calendar yr) ‘18? Probably. We’ll see how it all works out."

Conclusion? Space launches get delayed. A lot. Don't read more in to delays than is actually there.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: WHAP on 05/15/2014 04:02 am
In other news...

Looks like the next Delta launch is going to be delayed, so better get the pitchforks ready.

What was your source?  What was the reason for the slip?  No slip announced so far, except potentially due to the weather, and it's a little extreme to suggest that people blame SpaceX for weather delays.

And it sounds like SLS is also slipping. From Tweet from Jeff Foust....

"Bob Cabana on first SLS launch, targeted late '17: "Is it going to slip into (calendar yr) ‘18? Probably. We’ll see how it all works out."

Conclusion? Space launches get delayed. A lot. Don't read more in to delays than is actually there.

First flight of a non-existent vehicle isn't a relevant comparison. 

Space launches do get delayed.  But its hard to read too much into delays caused by vehicle issues.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: JamesH on 05/15/2014 09:46 am
In other news...

Looks like the next Delta launch is going to be delayed, so better get the pitchforks ready.

What was your source?  What was the reason for the slip?  No slip announced so far, except potentially due to the weather, and it's a little extreme to suggest that people blame SpaceX for weather delays.

And it sounds like SLS is also slipping. From Tweet from Jeff Foust....

"Bob Cabana on first SLS launch, targeted late '17: "Is it going to slip into (calendar yr) ‘18? Probably. We’ll see how it all works out."

Conclusion? Space launches get delayed. A lot. Don't read more in to delays than is actually there.

First flight of a non-existent vehicle isn't a relevant comparison. 

Space launches do get delayed.  But its hard to read too much into delays caused by vehicle issues.

Source for Delta delay was again a Jeff Foust tweet. Don't have time to refer back, he tweets a lot...

First flight of a non-existent vehicle isn't relevent? What about rockets with only a few flights? Is that? There have been 5 F9 1.1 flights (1.1. was effectively a new rocket over 1.0). Five. All successful. Since Sept. 2013. That's only 9 months. It's still a very very new rocket, and to read anything major in to pad delays after only 5 flights and 9 months is statistically faulty.

There have been 1700 Soyuz series flights as a comparison...

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: WHAP on 05/16/2014 01:18 am
In other news...

Looks like the next Delta launch is going to be delayed, so better get the pitchforks ready.

What was your source?  What was the reason for the slip?  No slip announced so far, except potentially due to the weather, and it's a little extreme to suggest that people blame SpaceX for weather delays.

And it sounds like SLS is also slipping. From Tweet from Jeff Foust....

"Bob Cabana on first SLS launch, targeted late '17: "Is it going to slip into (calendar yr) ‘18? Probably. We’ll see how it all works out."

Conclusion? Space launches get delayed. A lot. Don't read more in to delays than is actually there.

First flight of a non-existent vehicle isn't a relevant comparison. 

Space launches do get delayed.  But its hard to read too much into delays caused by vehicle issues.

Source for Delta delay was again a Jeff Foust tweet. Don't have time to refer back, he tweets a lot...

First flight of a non-existent vehicle isn't relevent? What about rockets with only a few flights? Is that? There have been 5 F9 1.1 flights (1.1. was effectively a new rocket over 1.0). Five. All successful. Since Sept. 2013. That's only 9 months. It's still a very very new rocket, and to read anything major in to pad delays after only 5 flights and 9 months is statistically faulty.

There have been 1700 Soyuz series flights as a comparison...

I did take the time, and there's nothing I saw in Jeff Foust's tweets that mentioned a delay - only a weather forecast.

Yes, the newness of v1.1 should allow for leniency when evaluating slips.  But using the SLS slip to to rationalize the Falcon slip, which resulted from a vehicle issue in addition to pad issue, is not relevant, period.   
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: JamesH on 05/16/2014 09:56 am
So how many Delta delays have there been, due to vehicle issues? How many in the first 5 flights? (I don't know the answer).

I'm not trying to rationalise one against the other. Just put across the point that there are almost always delays on rockets flights, due to weather, vehicle problems, range issues, payload issues. And to castigate SpaceX for delays, for whatever reason,  after only 5 flights is not statistically relevant.

And what constitutes a 'bad' delay? SpaceX had to postpone the recent launch due to a vehicle problems. It's quite possible that the problem was fixed the next day (or may not, I don't know) and the vehicle was ready to launch. But the delay is now propagated and increased by various other non-vehicle related issues. So although the technical issue was shortlived, the delay is much longer. So is that vehicle issue a 'bad' delay? If the range issues were not there, the rocket may have been able to launch the next day....is that a 'bad' delay? The point being, the cause is the same, but the effect completely different.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: WHAP on 05/16/2014 04:20 pm
So how many Delta delays have there been, due to vehicle issues? How many in the first 5 flights? (I don't know the answer).

I'm not trying to rationalise one against the other. Just put across the point that there are almost always delays on rockets flights, due to weather, vehicle problems, range issues, payload issues. And to castigate SpaceX for delays, for whatever reason,  after only 5 flights is not statistically relevant.

And what constitutes a 'bad' delay? SpaceX had to postpone the recent launch due to a vehicle problems. It's quite possible that the problem was fixed the next day (or may not, I don't know) and the vehicle was ready to launch. But the delay is now propagated and increased by various other non-vehicle related issues. So although the technical issue was shortlived, the delay is much longer. So is that vehicle issue a 'bad' delay? If the range issues were not there, the rocket may have been able to launch the next day....is that a 'bad' delay? The point being, the cause is the same, but the effect completely different.


I was commenting on your original posts looking at the current Delta delay (there was none) and SLS delay to say that delays were common.  If you had brought up the original Delta IV program delays, that might have been relevant.
Based on the information in the OG-2 Updates thread (even before today's info), it's very unlikely that SpaceX would have been ready to launch the next day.  There was no indication that they couldn't get the Range - the Delta launch wouldn't have blocked the Range until Tuesday, giving SpaceX a number of other opportunities had they been ready.  You make statements that "the technical issue was short-lived" and "is now propagated and increased by various other non-vehicle related issues" that sound factual, but aren't.  The most likely scenario is that SpaceX had to enter the tank to make the necessary repair, and (per the updates thread) has now sent a failed component back to CA for testing.  Yes, that's a "bad" delay.  And yes, it's subjective.
I'm not supporting those who castigate SpaceX for these delays.  But using data that either isn't true or not relevant doesn't provide a valid counter argument.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: JamesH on 05/18/2014 06:49 pm
So how many Delta delays have there been, due to vehicle issues? How many in the first 5 flights? (I don't know the answer).

I'm not trying to rationalise one against the other. Just put across the point that there are almost always delays on rockets flights, due to weather, vehicle problems, range issues, payload issues. And to castigate SpaceX for delays, for whatever reason,  after only 5 flights is not statistically relevant.

And what constitutes a 'bad' delay? SpaceX had to postpone the recent launch due to a vehicle problems. It's quite possible that the problem was fixed the next day (or may not, I don't know) and the vehicle was ready to launch. But the delay is now propagated and increased by various other non-vehicle related issues. So although the technical issue was shortlived, the delay is much longer. So is that vehicle issue a 'bad' delay? If the range issues were not there, the rocket may have been able to launch the next day....is that a 'bad' delay? The point being, the cause is the same, but the effect completely different.


I was commenting on your original posts looking at the current Delta delay (there was none) and SLS delay to say that delays were common.  If you had brought up the original Delta IV program delays, that might have been relevant.
Based on the information in the OG-2 Updates thread (even before today's info), it's very unlikely that SpaceX would have been ready to launch the next day.  There was no indication that they couldn't get the Range - the Delta launch wouldn't have blocked the Range until Tuesday, giving SpaceX a number of other opportunities had they been ready.  You make statements that "the technical issue was short-lived" and "is now propagated and increased by various other non-vehicle related issues" that sound factual, but aren't.  The most likely scenario is that SpaceX had to enter the tank to make the necessary repair, and (per the updates thread) has now sent a failed component back to CA for testing.  Yes, that's a "bad" delay.  And yes, it's subjective.
I'm not supporting those who castigate SpaceX for these delays.  But using data that either isn't true or not relevant doesn't provide a valid counter argument.

What? Please read my posts again. Firstly, I said the delta launch might be delayed (for weather reasons) - in fact it wasn't. Good. Secondly, I didn't say the SpaceX pad problem was trivial, I said it *possibly* was trivial, and that if it were, they might have been able to launch the next day if the range and window was available. I believe they said at the point of the original delay, or just after, that due to range reasons they wouldn't be able to fly until the 28th (?). so it seem they would not have been able to launch the next day. As it turns out the pad problem wasn't trivial, but that does not negate my point. The point being  that delays propagate was clearly not aimed at this specific launch, but at launches in general. If you get a problem that takes a day to sort out, that almost always results in a more than one day delay to the launch.

As for delays and why they are generally a good thing when applied to rocket launches,  here is probably a very good example...http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27444664


Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: WHAP on 05/18/2014 10:31 pm
What? Please read my posts again. Firstly, I said the delta launch might be delayed (for weather reasons) - in fact it wasn't. Good. Secondly, I didn't say the SpaceX pad problem was trivial, I said it *possibly* was trivial, and that if it were, they might have been able to launch the next day if the range and window was available. I believe they said at the point of the original delay, or just after, that due to range reasons they wouldn't be able to fly until the 28th (?). so it seem they would not have been able to launch the next day. As it turns out the pad problem wasn't trivial, but that does not negate my point. The point being  that delays propagate was clearly not aimed at this specific launch, but at launches in general. If you get a problem that takes a day to sort out, that almost always results in a more than one day delay to the launch.

As for delays and why they are generally a good thing when applied to rocket launches,  here is probably a very good example...http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27444664


We should stop this back and forth, but until there's some real news about the number of flights SpaceX can achieve, I'll keep going...

I did read your posts. 

You used a potential Delta delay (didn't specify the reason and quoted a tweet that I missed or has been deleted) as a reason not to castigate SpaceX.  But I think you'll have a tough time finding a post where a SpaceX delay due to weather (has there been one?) has elicited a "there they go again" response on this forum.

You continue to talk about the pad issue.  As it turns out, that issue, which occurred on 8 May, was trivial.  But you seem to be ignoring the vehicle issue that occurred on 9 May.  There aren't any range delays preventing SpaceX from getting off the ground (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34591.msg1196004#msg1196004), there are vehicle hardware problems (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34591.msg1199538#msg1199538) doing that.  There has been no propagation - yet.

I'm sticking by my original response.  You used examples that didn't support your argument.  There are lots of other facts that would have supported it.  That's all.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: JamesH on 05/19/2014 10:25 am
Crikey. All I was trying to do was show that pad delays (whoever they happen to) just happen! And if they do, there will likely be a delay that is longer than just the time to fix the problem. And that delays like this, for a nascent company like SpaceX, are not a reason to 'castigate' them. Delays happen all the time in rocketry, not just to the newer companies. The examples I gave above were simply examples of delays that can happen - through weather, problems, range issues, launch windows etc. They were not aimed at specific launches, or specific companies.  They were simply EXAMPLES of what can and does happen.

They may be upstarts in an established industry, who are *doing* things differently, but the basic principles of rockets haven't changed just because they have turned up, and they still have to adhere to the same rules. And that means they will suffer the same sorts of delays (range, window, weather etc) as anyone else. And the rest of the delay set, that of issues with the rocket, is something that improves over time and launches. 5 launches of a rocket that is improving/changing all the time is nothing. I'm still amazed that all F9 flights have been successful, with no major issues. Pad delays mean nothing in comparison to a so far faultless record of a new rocket.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 05/19/2014 05:44 pm
OK. Enough with the who said what. And with the "yawn" and with the "no it wasn't yawny". Until there is new news that affects the count, it may be best not to post.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: vapour_nudge on 05/23/2014 09:00 am
Elon Musk was just quoted as saying he still expects 10 flights this year. That's one a month from here on.  He's the man with the money so 10 launches looks like the number and I've been pesimistic at 7.

If true that will beat the scheduled 9 launches for Atlas V (3 launched with 6 to go) for the most US launches this year. Only time will tell.

OK, now we're into late May and we hear the next Falcon launch is NET June 11. Atlas just launched on its 4th mission not that they're really RUSSIAN to get into orbit. Ha. But really, I'd rather both do well and have half the launches they originally planned if the alternative is to rush and fail.

All the best to SpaceX and to ULA and ILS for that matter.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 05/23/2014 02:47 pm
ULA has just completed launching four rockets, all successfully, in 7 weeks.

Just sayin'...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AncientU on 05/23/2014 04:08 pm
ULA has just completed launching four rockets, all successfully, in 7 weeks.

Just sayin'...

Yes, the bar is set very high.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Elmar Moelzer on 05/23/2014 04:20 pm
ULA has just completed launching four rockets, all successfully, in 7 weeks.

Just sayin'...
Yes, but they have not launched a payload to the ISS.
Just sayin'...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 05/23/2014 04:35 pm
Every post with "just sayin' " contained within it somewhere is off topic for this thread

Just sayin' ... :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: andreto on 05/23/2014 09:09 pm
Six.

I thought I was being wildly optimistic at 6,  and I still do.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 05/23/2014 09:10 pm
Six.

I thought I was being wildly optimistic at 6,  and I still do.

Im at 7.. I think your six is safe
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: vapour_nudge on 06/16/2014 10:07 am
OK. We've again shifted to the right in the manifest. If they do launch on June 20 or 21, then that's 3 launches in 6 months and with no change in flight rate they can therefore achieve 6 this year. So yet again, 7 looks good. I may feel different about it tomorrow. ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Proponent on 06/16/2014 11:57 am
I believe that path of reasoning actually leads to a prediction of just five launches this year.  If SpaceX launches soon, it will be averaging about three months between launches this year, leaving time for two more.  (Of course, I'm biased, since I guessed five. :) )

EDIT:  "reason" -> "reasoning"
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jarnis on 06/16/2014 12:07 pm
OK. We've again shifted to the right in the manifest. If they do launch on June 20 or 21, then that's 3 launches in 6 months and with no change in flight rate they can therefore achieve 6 this year. So yet again, 7 looks good. I may feel different about it tomorrow. ;)

Some of those delays have been due to circumstances beyond their control, so I'm sure they'll give a credible shot at 5-6 more.

Then we'll see how many further cases of circumstances beyond their control show up. I'd say total of 7 is the baseline minimum. 8 is probable, 9 is possible. And look, "8" is the leading vote!

My optimistic prediction of 12+ was already toast a few months ago :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: PerW on 06/16/2014 01:33 pm
From @pbdes
"SpaceX: Orbcomm launch now set for June 20, and we sill expect seven more launches this year after that."
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: TheWhiteZombie on 06/17/2014 05:42 am
As long as they increase their flight rate from last year by two or three, that is still a significant improvement. It might not be the explosive increase we were hoping for, but progress is progress.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: wannamoonbase on 06/17/2014 11:06 am
As long as they increase their flight rate from last year by two or three, that is still a significant improvement. It might not be the explosive increase we were hoping for, but progress is progress.

Agreed, there are obviously still some teething problems and not all the delays have been caused by SpaceX.

The pace they are able to support in Dec will say much more of where they are at. 

Multiple launch pads supporting different customer launches will help immensely. 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 06/17/2014 12:55 pm
It doesn't really matter whether the delays are caused by SpaceX or not, it still affects the flight rate. Obvious point, I guess.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: mrmandias on 06/17/2014 02:39 pm
It's still possible that it hits the 7 or 8 flight poll average.  But I guess that if back in January we had known that flight 2 wouldn't happen until Jun, if then (knock on wood), the vote totals would have looked pretty different.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Razvan on 06/17/2014 03:28 pm
I know, I will sound over optimistic but, I still think 10 would be doable for 2014.
After all, there are different facilities engaged in different activities. In spite of some issues, such as helium, the other manufacturing, assembling, etc. continue their work so they have already achieved progress for next launches and, besides, once you solve an issue, it is not likely same one will pop up to cause another delay...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 06/17/2014 03:30 pm
It doesn't really matter whether the delays are caused by SpaceX or not, it still affects the flight rate. Obvious point, I guess.

Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, Field Marshal

The tactical result of an engagement forms the base for new strategic decisions because victory or defeat in a battle changes the situation to such a degree that no human acumen is able to see beyond the first battle. In this sense one should understand Napoleon's saying: "I have never had a plan of operations."
Therefore no plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force.

Based on this, I would access any predictions for the next 6 months as hoping for Unicorns... Not that the exercise is useless in a theoretical way... just dangerous to place a bet on... operations will be carried forward based on the events & circumstances of the day, whatever they may be.... Que Sera, Sera (Whatever Will Be, Will Be) Doris Day ;-)

Gramps
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: PerW on 06/17/2014 03:53 pm
Agree Gramps.
But still I think our combinde guestimate will end up close to the actual number.
Go Spacex.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 06/17/2014 05:04 pm
It doesn't really matter whether the delays are caused by SpaceX or not, it still affects the flight rate. Obvious point, I guess.

Based on this, I would access any predictions for the next 6 months as hoping for Unicorns... Not that the exercise is useless in a theoretical way... just dangerous to place a bet on... operations will be carried forward based on the events & circumstances of the day, whatever they may be.... Que Sera, Sera (Whatever Will Be, Will Be) Doris Day ;-)

Gramps

Your discounting a valuable skill.   The town I live in has several adept people that make a fine living in the sports and other betting methodologies. 
 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 06/17/2014 10:02 pm
..... if back in January we had known that flight 2 wouldn't happen until Jun, if then (knock on wood), the vote totals would have looked pretty different.

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." - Niels Bohr (http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCUQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.brainyquote.com%2Fquotes%2Fquotes%2Fn%2Fnielsbohr130288.html&ei=yrmgU7zTHoucyASWzIHoCg&usg=AFQjCNEx-NIvHjP8jPhqahieYa1ppYcOFw&bvm=bv.68911936,d.aWw)

That was the point of the poll.  Here we are 46% of the way through the year and people are still debating between 4 and 9 launches.  So go ahead, people.  Tell us what you know about the rest of the year.  ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Llian Rhydderch on 06/17/2014 11:02 pm
..... if back in January we had known that flight 2 wouldn't happen until Jun, if then (knock on wood), the vote totals would have looked pretty different.

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." - Niels Bohr (http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCUQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.brainyquote.com%2Fquotes%2Fquotes%2Fn%2Fnielsbohr130288.html&ei=yrmgU7zTHoucyASWzIHoCg&usg=AFQjCNEx-NIvHjP8jPhqahieYa1ppYcOFw&bvm=bv.68911936,d.aWw)

That was the point of the poll.  Here we are 46% of the way through the year and people are still debating between 4 and 9 launches.  So go ahead, people.  Tell us what you know about the rest of the year.  ;)

Heck, as a reader and non-participant in the poll, I just wish the poll had been taken in January, and the results published as a "snapshot", and then the poll thread locked (for eleven months); with poll to be reopened in January 2015 for a few weeks of crying and victory dances.   ::)

This interminable revisiting of the same old speculations is, politely, somewhat less then edifying for our readers.   :-\

But, then, I guess that is the NSF way.   ???
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Space OurSoul on 06/18/2014 03:20 am
It doesn't really matter whether the delays are caused by SpaceX or not, it still affects the flight rate. Obvious point, I guess.
I would say that the more stuff that's down to SpaceX the better- those are things that are under their control and therefore, hopefully, getting better over time.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 07/08/2014 09:21 pm
Time for a bump & review

We are past the 1/2 year mark....lets have some fun ;D

how many more launches for 2014 can SpaceX do toward the yearly number?

those who voted for 8 don't think U won the poll  ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: vapour_nudge on 07/09/2014 01:56 pm
3 more
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: CraigLieb on 07/09/2014 07:57 pm
Wildly enthusiastic for: 12
hoping for:10
voted for: 6

Expect Delays Delays Delays Delays Delays... today perfect example.
The cost of a failure is too damaging to SpaceX reputation. They might even grow their business by demonstrating extra care so they don't lose a rocket (and somebody's expensive payload). This becomes particularly true when there are people up there.

On record as voting for 6 as my 2014 total,  so 4 more, please 4 more. NOT counting the pad test(s).
would be pleased if they exceed this.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: woods170 on 07/10/2014 08:19 am
Wildly enthusiastic for: 12
hoping for:10
voted for: 6

Expect Delays Delays Delays Delays Delays... today perfect example.
The cost of a failure is too damaging to SpaceX reputation. They might even grow their business by demonstrating extra care so they don't lose a rocket (and somebody's expensive payload). This becomes particularly true when there are people up there.

On record as voting for 6 as my 2014 total,  so 4 more, please 4 more. NOT counting the pad test(s).
would be pleased if they exceed this.
Thread title says orbital flight so abort- and pad tests don't count per definition.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 07/10/2014 01:36 pm
I voted 6
Mildly optimistic of hitting that IF the Bird takes off without a hitch on the 14th
mathematically i can see 8 possible, but that's in a perfect world

Still optimistic that SpaceX will hit their stride sometime this year or early next...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: woods170 on 07/10/2014 02:16 pm
I voted 6 as well because I imagined some event or string of events would pop up that would seriously delay one or more of the planned launches. And right now that is exactly what is happening.


SpaceX currently lacks the capability to do parallel processing at both their VABF and Florida launchpads. That is a serious obstacle for reaching any up-tempo launch cadence.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Danderman on 07/10/2014 02:32 pm


A lot depends on the Thaicom launch, so I will wait until early January to vote.

Right now, I am leaning towards 4, but if there is a quick Thaicom launch, I would vote for 5.


I was being wildly optimistic earlier this year!

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: sdsds on 07/10/2014 08:15 pm
We are past the 1/2 year mark....lets have some fun ;D

how many more launches for 2014 can SpaceX do toward the yearly number?

I think a more telling question to ask would be, "How many more times this year will SpaceX take an F9 off the pad and roll it back to the hangar?" :'(
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Giovanni DS on 07/10/2014 08:43 pm
I voted 4 but even that is in question now. They don't seem to be able yet to launch often and reliably as most hoped.

Giovanni
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 07/11/2014 03:15 am
We are past the 1/2 year mark....lets have some fun ;D

how many more launches for 2014 can SpaceX do toward the yearly number?

I think a more telling question to ask would be, "How many more times this year will SpaceX take an F9 off the pad and roll it back to the hangar?" :'(

Well they like to practice these things :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 07/11/2014 12:25 pm
SpaceX launches come in spurts of 3 or so with sometimes long gaps in between. I wouldn't be surprised if they get 6 launches this year, still. Maybe even 7. But I'd be surprised if they got fewer than 5 this year.

It's always funny to see the variations of enthusiasm here... Right before a launch that's been delayed, people are super pessimistic and vote like SpaceX will never launch again. After the successful launch, people act as if SpaceX is this irresistible force and they'll fly 12 more flights this year, including a test flight of the MCT...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 07/11/2014 12:41 pm
Linear regression places them on a path for 5 launches this year, if there's no acceleration in launch rate.  I voted for 6.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: BrianNH on 07/11/2014 03:59 pm
So far 2 people have been proven to be too pessimistic.

If we assume that the best case scenario is a launch a month going forward, then we have a maximum number of launches at 8 this year.  That implies that at least 177 were overly optimistic. 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: vapour_nudge on 07/12/2014 12:32 am
Some perspective... I don't favour any launcher, I hope each satellite launch is successful no matter who or where it is launching. People's livelihood rests with their jobs and they focus on one launch at a time. This launch provider is new to the table with a relatively new launcher. An expectation of an outcome won't have much of an impact on an outcome. If SpaceX find another fault and take another 3 months to launch then so be it. God forbid they get "go fever" and lose a vehicle and payload. Regardless of the claims of the owner, if I don't approach any manifest with some trepidation then I am likely to be disappointed.

In October 2012 the Delta IV experienced a fault and ULA were very cautious, not launching another Delta IV for 7½ months. After a few more launches, they delayed again for the same issue rather than proceed due to anyone getting annoyed at the launch rate. No doubt this would have been agreed to by the payload owner (although likely, this is my guess as I can't prove it)

More perspective, the Delta IV has launched over 25 times, but so far this year it has launched twice - just as many times as Falcon 9. Ariane 5 is the same. Proton launched twice as many times and lost a rocket and payload. Antares has launched once. Atlas V has launched 4 times. Each has another launch planned in the near future.

Start worrying when you see failures and caution being thrown to the wind and finally when you see customers moving to other vendors. Otherwise, be patient and thankful that the US providers haven't lost a vehicle or payload of late. As they iron out problems and gain more experience and time with the Falcon 9, the flight rate will improve and they will spend money where necessary to assure that (perhaps more pads and processing facilities too).

I wish every one of them success
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 07/12/2014 05:07 am
Some perspective... I don't favour any launcher, I hope each satellite launch is successful no matter who or where it is launching. People's livelihood rests with their jobs and they focus on one launch at a time. This launch provider is new to the table with a relatively new launcher. An expectation of an outcome won't have much of an impact on an outcome. If SpaceX find another fault and take another 3 months to launch then so be it. God forbid they get "go fever" and lose a vehicle and payload. Regardless of the claims of the owner, if I don't approach any manifest with some trepidation then I am likely to be disappointed.

In October 2012 the Delta IV experienced a fault and ULA were very cautious, not launching another Delta IV for 7½ months. After a few more launches, they delayed again for the same issue rather than proceed due to anyone getting annoyed at the launch rate. No doubt this would have been agreed to by the payload owner (although likely, this is my guess as I can't prove it)

More perspective, the Delta IV has launched over 25 times, but so far this year it has launched twice - just as many times as Falcon 9. Ariane 5 is the same. Proton launched twice as many times and lost a rocket and payload. Antares has launched once. Atlas V has launched 4 times. Each has another launch planned in the near future.

Start worrying when you see failures and caution being thrown to the wind and finally when you see customers moving to other vendors. Otherwise, be patient and thankful that the US providers haven't lost a vehicle or payload of late. As they iron out problems and gain more experience and time with the Falcon 9, the flight rate will improve and they will spend money where necessary to assure that (perhaps more pads and processing facilities too).

I wish every one of them success

Well the Soyuz has already been launched 11 times this year with another 2 more coming up by the end of July, but I'm sure it's in a different league (as of right now  ;)).....
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: hop on 07/12/2014 07:54 am
More perspective, the Delta IV has launched over 25 times, but so far this year it has launched twice - just as many times as Falcon 9. Ariane 5 is the same. Proton launched twice as many times and lost a rocket and payload. Antares has launched once. Atlas V has launched 4 times.
I generally agree with your sentiment, but there is a significant difference: The providers of Ariane 5 and Delta IV never claimed they were going to launch those vehicles 12+ times this year.

All providers have slips, but SpaceX manifest is much further from the mark than most, and has been for as long as they've been publishing manifests.
Quote
I wish every one of them success
As do I.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Zed_Noir on 07/12/2014 02:01 pm
...
Well the Soyuz has already been launched 11 times this year with another 2 more coming up by the end of July, but I'm sure it's in a different league (as of right now  ;)).....

The Soyuz got 4 launch pads with vehicle integration facility at 3 different sites to get the high number of flights that had gone up.

In a few of years SpaceX should have 4 pads operational. Might they be launching close to 30 orbital flights a year? 8) Of course presuming no hiccups in either the Falcon Heavy development or pad construction.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 07/13/2014 06:05 pm
...
Well the Soyuz has already been launched 11 times this year with another 2 more coming up by the end of July, but I'm sure it's in a different league (as of right now  ;)).....

The Soyuz got 4 launch pads with vehicle integration facility at 3 different sites to get the high number of flights that had gone up.

In a few of years SpaceX should have 4 pads operational. Might they be launching close to 30 orbital flights a year? 8) Of course presuming no hiccups in either the Falcon Heavy development or pad construction.

Orbital has one pad for Antares and they have launched twice to the ISS this year, with plans for a 3rd launch in Oct.

SPX-4 is scheduled for mid Sept. 2nd launch of dragon to the ISS this year.   

SpaceX get your act together your bringing up the rear in Commercial to ISS ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Zed_Noir on 07/13/2014 07:37 pm
...
Well the Soyuz has already been launched 11 times this year with another 2 more coming up by the end of July, but I'm sure it's in a different league (as of right now  ;)).....

The Soyuz got 4 launch pads with vehicle integration facility at 3 different sites to get the high number of flights that had gone up.

In a few of years SpaceX should have 4 pads operational. Might they be launching close to 30 orbital flights a year? 8) Of course presuming no hiccups in either the Falcon Heavy development or pad construction.

Orbital has one pad for Antares and they have launched twice to the ISS this year, with plans for a 3rd launch in Oct.

SPX-4 is scheduled for mid Sept. 2nd launch of dragon to the ISS this year.   

SpaceX get your act together your bringing up the rear in Commercial to ISS ;D

Point taken. Of course OrbitalATK don't have commercial payloads to worry about yet for the Antares.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: hop on 07/13/2014 08:34 pm
The Soyuz got 4 launch pads with vehicle integration facility at 3 different sites to get the high number of flights that had gone up.
Soyuz is nowhere near it's peak launch rate though. Throughout the 70s and 80s the R7 family sustained an average of a launch per week from two sites with a total of ~5 (?) active pads, while maintaining very good reliability.

Of course that isn't a fair comparison to SpaceX in a whole bunch of ways, the only point is launch sites aren't likely to be the limiting factor on Soyuz current launch rate.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: neoforce on 07/14/2014 08:30 pm
With today's success, and in the spirit of this thread**, I'm confident that Space-X will hit my vote of 9 flights this year.   Clearly they can ramp up to one launch every three weeks for the rest of the year!
.
.
.
** spirit of the thread = uncontrollable fan boi optimism after a launch or when a date is announced... And when things are delayed, doom/gloom and pessimism.

Seriously, I knew when I voted 9 that it would be a huge stretch.  I was kind of counting on 7, but decided to be a fan boi and voted 9.   I know "Space is Hard" but there still might be a chance for 6 or even 7.  I gave up on 9 a long time ago.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 07/14/2014 08:39 pm
With today's success, and in the spirit of this thread**, I'm confident that Space-X will hit my vote of 9 flights this year.   Clearly they can ramp up to one launch every three weeks for the rest of the year!
..
** spirit of the thread = uncontrollable fan boi optimism after a launch or when a date is announced... And when things are delayed, doom/gloom and pessimism.

Seriously, I knew when I voted 9 that it would be a huge stretch.  I was kind of counting on 7, but decided to be a fan boi and voted 9.   I know "Space is Hard" but there still might be a chance for 6 or even 7.  I gave up on 9 a long time ago.

I hear you, I  kinda gave up on 8 a while back...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: wannamoonbase on 07/15/2014 12:17 pm
7 with an outside shot at 8 seems reasonable at this point.

Beyond SpaceX's ability to improve cycle times there are still range, weather, payload issues that cause their own fair share of delays.

Building up launch team capacity (number of people) to handle multiple pads will be interesting to watch as LC39A and Boca Chica are activated.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Hauerg on 07/15/2014 12:46 pm
Back then i thought 9 would be a realistic target. Including delays i arrived at 6.
Sticking to that.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 07/15/2014 02:30 pm
Slightly over half of year, three launches. Yup, it seems to be six at end.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: JamesH on 07/15/2014 02:59 pm
Why do people find this so important?

New company, new rocket, new technology, new pads.

They will fly as many as they can. It's all too new to be worrying about flight rates.

My personal opinion is that there will be a rapid rise in launch rate as they iron out all the problems and get more pads online, but I'm really happy for them to take as long as they need to get it right. And if I were a payload owner, I'd be the same.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 07/15/2014 08:03 pm
Q Why do people find this so important?

A My personal opinion is that

Does A Answer your question?   We are all human ::)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: QuantumG on 07/15/2014 09:54 pm
New company, new rocket, new technology, new pads.

SpaceX isn't a new company. This week's flight was the 10th flight of Falcon 9. What new technology? Other than flight 6 they've all launched from SLC-40.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 07/15/2014 10:18 pm
Why does this matter?

Because SpaceX needs the money. While they may get funding for tech development, ultimately, it's the bread and butter launches that will generate the revenue SpaceX needs to build the dream... the dream that many of us share.

So they have to get the cadence up. That's where the money is. And so we handicap it... because we care and because it's fun.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: deruch on 07/16/2014 06:16 am
Why do people find this so important?

I don't think anyone here believes it's "personally" important to them and their life (with the possible exception of any members whose jobs may be directly tied or at stake).  So, I'm not sure what you mean by "important".  Are you asking why it seems to engender so much speculation, debate, and passionate discussion?  If so, my answer is to ask: Why do people play fantasy baseball/football?  They can just watch the games and support teams if they want without getting all hot and bothered with it.  As far as I know, there aren't any Fantasy Launching Leagues to play with.  Unless, you want to consider some of what goes on here in these boards as an equivalent.  So why?  Cause it's fun. 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AnjaZoe on 07/16/2014 06:53 am
Why does this matter?

Because SpaceX needs the money. While they may get funding for tech development, ultimately, it's the bread and butter launches that will generate the revenue [...]

But is a sequence of launches for about 20 millions each generating enough revenue?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: guckyfan on 07/16/2014 07:40 am
But is a sequence of launches for about 20 millions each generating enough revenue?

Why do you assume a sequence of launches for about 20 millions each?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AnjaZoe on 07/16/2014 07:43 am
Asiasat is paying around 20 mio for each launch and iirc the Orbcomm is a carryover from an old F1 contract.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: woods170 on 07/16/2014 08:19 am
Remember folks, this is not the thread to discuss SpaceX launch prices. Go do that somewhere else please. Thank you.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: TripD on 07/17/2014 03:55 am
I admit my prediction of 9 is optimistic**2  But I hold to it.  Also, I would be quite content if they only keep up the pace they have achieved so far this year.  Now, if somehow Elon miraculously got permission to land a booster on solid ground this year.........  8)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: baldusi on 07/17/2014 05:01 pm
I vote 8 for optimist assuming 7 would be the number. Now 6 looks like difficult.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: mme on 07/17/2014 05:47 pm
I vote 8 for optimist assuming 7 would be the number. Now 6 looks like difficult.
I don't see how 6 looks difficult.  They did 3 in 6.5 months that included the range being down and having a particularly persnickety rocket (or two.)  Another 3 in 5.5 months may not be guaranteed, but it seems pretty likely to me.

I voted (OK, hoped for) 9, which I felt was optimistic but possible.  It's still possible by averaging one launch a month.  Probable?  I have no idea, what I do know is the year isn't over.

Edit:  Looks like they're trying for a SpaceX record turn around between launches...

NASASpaceFlight.com Forum » SpaceX Vehicles and Missions » SpaceX Missions Section » SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - ASIASAT-8 - August 4, 2014 - UPDATE THREAD
THIS THREAD IS FOR UPDATES ONLY. ALL NON UPDATES WILL BE REMOVED.

L2 Information notes: Falcon 9 / ASIASAT-8 Launch August 4, 0125E-0325E. (Range Approved)
...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: baldusi on 07/17/2014 10:29 pm
Yes, that what they intend. The question is what will they achieve. CRS flight are particularly pressing on the schedule because you have a very complicated payload, and the ISS manifest contingencies.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 07/17/2014 11:23 pm
If they can get the two next Asiasats launched in next two months, then the CRS-4 should definitely be doable by end of the year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Tomness on 07/18/2014 12:22 am
How many integration cells are in the SPIF?


two and a holding cell

As Jim Mentioned in this thread, with SpaceX using SPIF they can only integrate 2 SpaceCraft at a time and with Dragon taking 1 spot . They only have 1 more so with "no delays"  they might be pressed to carry out 1 a mouth for rest of this year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: vapour_nudge on 07/19/2014 02:30 am
If they can get the two next Asiasats launched in next two months, then the CRS-4 should definitely be doable by end of the year.

Yes, the next 2 launches are commercial in the full sense. So, CRS-4 will introduce the greater risk of "schedule shuffle" with a number of other launch vehicle planned launches from the cape -
5 Atlas V, 2 Delta IV including the possibility of EFT1 & 1 Delta II. The CRS is subject to a lot of ISS variables that could affect its launch date. Any delays in the ATV and others could have a flow on affect. The Progress and TMA launches also mess with the schedule. If you blank out all the days they can launch just from these issues, it really does thin out the opportunities for CRS4 to launch

Way back I predicted 7 F9 launches so 6 is looking likely with 7 an outside chance. I'm a little cautious as this year has proved to be problematic. I personally reckon the launch rate will steadily increase from here on in.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Zed_Noir on 07/19/2014 12:15 pm
...
Yes, the next 2 launches are commercial in the full sense. So, CRS-4 will introduce the greater risk of "schedule shuffle" with a number of other launch vehicle planned launches from the cape -
5 Atlas V, 2 Delta IV including the possibility of EFT1 & 1 Delta II. The CRS is subject to a lot of ISS variables that could affect its launch date. Any delays in the ATV and others could have a flow on affect. The Progress and TMA launches also mess with the schedule. If you blank out all the days they can launch just from these issues, it really does thin out the opportunities for CRS4 to launch
...
??? I thought all remaining Delta-II flights are launching from VAFB. SLC-17B is no longer operational.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: vapour_nudge on 07/19/2014 01:59 pm
??? I thought all remaining Delta-II flights are launching from VAFB. SLC-17B is no longer operational.

Yes, thanks - you're spot on. I was wrong. I included the VAFB launches for all vehicles there by mistake. There's only 3 Atlas V & 2 Delta IV's to fly from the cape this year. Oh dear

Edit/Lar: fixed quote
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: watermod on 07/19/2014 03:49 pm
Regarding the rate on a launch pad question.  I was wondering if, skipping the reuse tests, some of their loads could take advantage of the extra fuel to launch from their Vandenberg pad?  I know its normally used for polar orbit stuff but their prime bottleneck appears to be pad count.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 07/19/2014 04:03 pm
I'm sticking with six to eight launches this year. Six is, IMHO, the minimum that they need to achieve without their reputation in the industry taking a hit and maybe some big ticket customers like Intelsat moving to other providers.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: aero on 07/19/2014 04:37 pm
So how many do they have so far? Seems like I've watched about a dozen count downs.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: baldusi on 07/19/2014 04:46 pm
Yeah, but the. LC-40 team has the equivalent to a twenty campaign experience :-p (I'm joking, don't start Jimming on me).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: QuantumG on 07/19/2014 10:22 pm
So how many do they have so far? Seems like I've watched about a dozen count downs.

Three. Thaicom 6, CRS-3, OG2.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 07/20/2014 02:41 am
how soon we forget. It does seem like a lot more campaigns... :(
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: averagespacejoe on 07/20/2014 02:44 am
One more successful launch and it will be a personal best for SpaceX, in the category of "successful orbital launches in a calendar year."
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: sdsds on 07/20/2014 06:08 am
launches in a calendar year

Got me thinking calendar years are somewhat arbitrary. Attached a plot showing (I hope!) trailing twelve month launch totals. Please double-check the data; GIGO.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MP99 on 07/20/2014 08:11 am


Why do people find this so important?

New company, new rocket, new technology, new pads.

They will fly as many as they can. It's all too new to be worrying about flight rates.

Because SpaceX themselves seem unable to see clearly just one year ahead such that they can publish an achievable manifest. In other words, their current performance is disappointing themselves.

For me, the first year where they make the number of launches as promised on Jan 1st will be the true time for celebration.

Mars launch opportunities wait for no man. Imagine a crew on Mars relying on a resupply mission that misses its window.

Cheers, Martin
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: wannamoonbase on 07/20/2014 07:05 pm
how soon we forget. It does seem like a lot more campaigns... :(

The objective is to improve with each launch. Therefore I think all launch attempts successful or not contribute to the companies experience with this vehicle and pad systems.

For those of you that think SpaceX can't hit a target you need to separate out those delays by the rocket and GSE and those caused by Range, weather and payload. Those will always be there and SpaceX can't do much about those.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Garrett on 07/20/2014 07:38 pm
launches in a calendar year
Got me thinking calendar years are somewhat arbitrary. Attached a plot showing (I hope!) trailing twelve month launch totals. Please double-check the data; GIGO.
Very informative. A picture graph is worth a thousand NSF forum posts ...

Can I put in a request? Any chance you could project the curves into the future using the assumption that the next scheduled F9 flights for 2014 launch on time?
(Salo's US launch schedule: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.795)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Vultur on 07/20/2014 11:53 pm
For those of you that think SpaceX can't hit a target you need to separate out those delays by the rocket and GSE and those caused by Range, weather and payload. Those will always be there and SpaceX can't do much about those.

I wish they would take them into account in their published manifest, though.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: sdsds on 07/21/2014 01:45 am
Got me thinking calendar years are somewhat arbitrary. Attached a plot showing (I hope!) trailing twelve month launch totals. Please double-check the data; GIGO.
Very informative. A picture graph is worth a thousand NSF forum posts ...

Can I put in a request? Any chance you could project the curves into the future using the assumption that the next scheduled F9 flights for 2014 launch on time?
(Salo's US launch schedule: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.795)

Thanks! I'm hesitant though to generate speculative graphs. Again it's the "garbage-in, garbage-out" (GIGO) problem. But the graph went up to 5 based on these prior launch dates:
09/29/13,    12/03/13,    01/06/14,    04/18/14,    07/14/14

That first one is key to the upcoming period. To prevent dropping back down to 4, they'll need to get the next one (AsiaSat 8 ) launched before the end of September August. The 8/4/14 range reservation date would do that. Indeed, it would nudge them up to 6 at the end of August! If "late August" holds for AsiaSat 6, that would put them at 7 6!

[EDIT: Oops! I shouldn't have tried to think it through! ;) ]
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: wannamoonbase on 07/21/2014 01:59 am
For those of you that think SpaceX can't hit a target you need to separate out those delays by the rocket and GSE and those caused by Range, weather and payload. Those will always be there and SpaceX can't do much about those.

I wish they would take them into account in their published manifest, though.

Surely you are not suggesting they predict weather, range and payload issues when publishing a manifest. I think you are putting far too much weight on it. It's not a German train schedule.

I look at the manifest just to see who the custoners are and which coast they are launching from.

More pads, and different ranges will help significantly so give them another 2-3 years. Many of us started following SpaceX from the first Falcon 1 launch, I think we can all agree they've come a long way since then. Their pace of improvement is increasing. Another 2-3 years to get 4 pads rolling will fly by, especially if they are launching every 3-6 weeks.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 07/21/2014 12:17 pm
Surely you are not suggesting they predict weather, range and payload issues when publishing a manifest. I think you are putting far too much weight on it. It's not a German train schedule.

IMO, it is Falcon-9's reliability that's the main driver of launch delays right now. Too many bits breaking during the countdown that aren't spotted during testing at McGreggor.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 07/21/2014 05:56 pm
Surely you are not suggesting they predict weather, range and payload issues when publishing a manifest. I think you are putting far too much weight on it. It's not a German train schedule.

IMO, it is Falcon-9's reliability that's the main driver of launch delays right now. Too many bits breaking during the countdown that aren't spotted during testing at McGreggor.
But the fact that both they are found and that the vehicle is robust enough to those bit breaking is a good sign. Better to have a resilient system with bugs than a brittle system with fewer bugs but greater consequences.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: TrevorMonty on 07/21/2014 06:35 pm
Technical problems are to be expected as every production LV is a test vehicle. Unlike cars rockets don't have luxury of dozens of test prototypes and 1000s of test drives to iron out problems.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 07/22/2014 03:28 am
Technical problems are to be expected as every production LV is a test vehicle. Unlike cars rockets don't have luxury of dozens of test prototypes and 1000s of test drives to iron out problems.

Even with that, you get production recalls to modify / fix things, so it's hardly unexpected when some issue arises with the lv on the pad.  It actually says a lot that it doesn't happen more often.
Cheers
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: TripD on 08/05/2014 08:18 am
Thread bump:  On account of a much smoother launch campaign.  AsiaSat------- check please.  8)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 08/05/2014 09:40 am
Judging by historical record, I will assume they got lucky* until proven otherwise.
My prediction (seven) certainly looks better, though.

* I mean launching without further scrubs and slips, not launch itself.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: skybum on 08/05/2014 10:00 am
Really happy to see a smoother launch campaign, but I'm going to stick to my prediction of 6 for now. Of course I will be very pleased if the exceed this! 7 and even 8 are certainly within the realm of possibility. I do think it's very unlikely that they will get more than 8 off the ground this year.

Just to be imprudent, I'll also put in an early vote for 9 orbital launches in 2015. Still not a big number, but if they launch 6 this year, then that's still geometric growth over several years. In 2015, I expect that they'll still have plenty of scheduling issues with the range and the ISS Visiting Vehicle schedule, etc., as well as various learning experiences getting the F9R and Falcon Heavy off the ground. So 9 seems like a good number, building on the experience of this year.

In 2016, they should be able to get operations going at their own spaceport, which will substantially alleviate the range issues, so I predict 14 flights in 2016. After that, I expect that the Falcon Heavy, F9R, and Dragon Flyer will begin to pick up business that isn't currently on anyone's ledger, leading to 21 flights in 2017, then 32 flights in 2018. So in the long run I'm optimistic... but for this year I'm sticking with 6.  :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robert Thompson on 08/05/2014 10:09 am
As of tonight I'll vote 7 for 2015.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: mikelepage on 08/05/2014 11:04 am
I love how everyone seems to be projecting into the future either with a linear expectation (imo overly pessimistic) or an exponential expectation (imo overly optimistic).  Technically it should be closer to sigmoid if what they are doing qualifies as "disrupting an existing market with a lower-priced, better product" ;) That means ramping up quickly but levelling off as they reach the production capacity of their factory.  Elon has said they've built their current factory to make 40 stages/20 flights a year, with 10xF9 and 10xFH. If you look at what they're most likely to do this year with a monthly cadence (8 flights), that's 6 less than is on their manifest.  6 less than their 2015 manifest .+6 that slipped from 2014, gives you a 22 day cadence (16 flights). 

So that's why I'd predict 2014: 8 flights, 2015: 16 flights , 2016, 20 flights, and then about 20/year for the next few years or so as they build up factory and pad capacity (We know they need to build a new class of pad for the BFR).  Once that happens (assuming the market for LEO, GEO and beyond has grown) I'd anticipate another sigmoid jump as they bring new production capacity online (I'm still holding to my "beer bet tracker" bet that they will achieve 48 launches in a 365 day period by July 1st 2022).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: symbios on 08/05/2014 11:51 am
mikelepage, I agree with your statement in general but I think that you are missing something vital. That is reusability.

2015 they might get 16 flights depending on pad availability etc.  They should have retrieved several of the cores and maybe relaunched one ore two.

But beyond that it very difficult to predict. They should be getting the tempo of reusability, so cores should not be a factor. They should have 3-4 pads so pads should not be a limiting factor, I think by this time it more depends on the market and what SpaceX resources are available...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Tass on 08/05/2014 12:34 pm
SpaceX launches come in spurts of 3 or so with sometimes long gaps in between. I wouldn't be surprised if they get 6 launches this year, still. Maybe even 7. But I'd be surprised if they got fewer than 5 this year.

It's always funny to see the variations of enthusiasm here... Right before a launch that's been delayed, people are super pessimistic and vote like SpaceX will never launch again. After the successful launch, people act as if SpaceX is this irresistible force and they'll fly 12 more flights this year, including a test flight of the MCT...

I just wanted to bump this very true post. At the time Robotbeat posted it, people were writing posts like the following:

A lot depends on the Thaicom launch, so I will wait until early January to vote.

Right now, I am leaning towards 4, but if there is a quick Thaicom launch, I would vote for 5.

I was being wildly optimistic earlier this year!
I voted 4 but even that is in question now. They don't seem to be able yet to launch often and reliably as most hoped.

Giovanni

Now, less than a month later, people are talking 9 again!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: wannamoonbase on 08/05/2014 01:58 pm
6 launches, likely,

7 highly possible

8 difficult

9 not likely

But if they do get to 9 then watch out in '15.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Elmar Moelzer on 08/05/2014 02:29 pm
I guessed 5... I think I might have been too pessimistic this time, which makes me very happy :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: e of pi on 08/05/2014 03:44 pm
I guessed 8, which at the time I thought was cautiously optimistic with room for weather slips and the like. It's still an outside chance, but I think if asked to revote at this moment I'd go with 7--Dragons are so slippery I think CRS-5 will end up next year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Giovanni DS on 08/05/2014 04:36 pm
I voted 4 but even that is in question now. They don't seem to be able yet to launch often and reliably as most hoped.

Giovanni

Now, less than a month later, people are talking 9 again!

I would be happy to be proved wrong :) they are the most interesting subject right now for us space fans.

Giovanni
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: ceauke on 08/05/2014 04:39 pm
I'm trying to figure out how to skew the numbers to suit my optimistic views of spacex.
I came up with this view:

Month of launch .Launches in previous year
Jun-101
Dec-102
May-121
Oct-122
Mar-133
Sep-133
Dec-133
Jan-144
Apr-144
Jul-145
Aug-146
(Picture attached with a chronological timescale)

With the relatively infrequent launches it seems that working on a past-year rather than calendar year you get a smoother 'curve'. So on Aug-14, for the past year they have launched 6 times for example.  This seems to make it fairer if a launch happens on 1 Jan rather than 31 Dec. It skews the numbers for one month only but in Feb it doesn't matter if that launch occured in Dec or Jan because you remeasure every month/launch rather than once a year. So for 11/12 months that Dec v Jan doesn't have an effect.

Sounds inversely related to sale reps getting their sales and quotas for the current year by stealing from the future year. Whatever doesn't launch this year for spaceX means more potentials to fill the calendar next year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: mikelepage on 08/05/2014 05:12 pm
mikelepage, I agree with your statement in general but I think that you are missing something vital. That is reusability.

2015 they might get 16 flights depending on pad availability etc.  They should have retrieved several of the cores and maybe relaunched one ore two.

But beyond that it very difficult to predict. They should be getting the tempo of reusability, so cores should not be a factor. They should have 3-4 pads so pads should not be a limiting factor, I think by this time it more depends on the market and what SpaceX resources are available...

I agree that reusability will have an impact on cost for sure, and I think they'll probably be fairly quick to pass those savings onto the customers, but my feeling is that for at least the first few years it will not have that much of an impact on flight rate.  Remember that it's only the 1st stage getting reused at first, so perhaps they'll be able to integrate the payload to the 2nd stage in advance and then integrate the payload-2nd stage combo to the first stage in a building near the pad then reuse straight away, but chances are they'll ship the first few (to-be-reused) first stages back to Texas or wherever they will be assessed and retested.  The logistics of handling all those reused cores is not going to be easy either.  All of a sudden you need "garage space" for the rockets you're not using today.

Kinda wonder what their pricing structure is going to be to make sure they do get reused.  Chances are the military/GPS satellites/communications companies will always be willing to pay for a brand new rocket, but it would be cool if they initially set a pricing structure where a brand new rocket starts at $50 million, but each new reuse of these F9s gets a price reduction by 50% up to 5 uses, whereupon it settles at $3 million a launch or so.  At that price you would see a lot of universities and smaller companies using the Dragonlab modules for experiments/promo work, or just tourist companies doing the "orbital" sub-orbital tourism model (where say a group of people from anywhere in the world are traveling and make their way to the launch site, where they launch and a day or two in orbit in a Dragon v2 (so much better an experience than the mere minutes VG will provide, they could even spend longer if there was a module on the right inclination) and then with a single burn travel back to their home destination which can be pretty much any airport in the world).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: SoulWager on 08/05/2014 05:58 pm
mikelepage, I agree with your statement in general but I think that you are missing something vital. That is reusability.

2015 they might get 16 flights depending on pad availability etc.  They should have retrieved several of the cores and maybe relaunched one ore two.

But beyond that it very difficult to predict. They should be getting the tempo of reusability, so cores should not be a factor. They should have 3-4 pads so pads should not be a limiting factor, I think by this time it more depends on the market and what SpaceX resources are available...

I agree that reusability will have an impact on cost for sure, and I think they'll probably be fairly quick to pass those savings onto the customers, but my feeling is that for at least the first few years it will not have that much of an impact on flight rate.  Remember that it's only the 1st stage getting reused at first, so perhaps they'll be able to integrate the payload to the 2nd stage in advance and then integrate the payload-2nd stage combo to the first stage in a building near the pad then reuse straight away, but chances are they'll ship the first few (to-be-reused) first stages back to Texas or wherever they will be assessed and retested.  The logistics of handling all those reused cores is not going to be easy either.  All of a sudden you need "garage space" for the rockets you're not using today.

Kinda wonder what their pricing structure is going to be to make sure they do get reused.  Chances are the military/GPS satellites/communications companies will always be willing to pay for a brand new rocket, but it would be cool if they initially set a pricing structure where a brand new rocket starts at $50 million, but each new reuse of these F9s gets a price reduction by 50% up to 5 uses, whereupon it settles at $3 million a launch or so.  At that price you would see a lot of universities and smaller companies using the Dragonlab modules for experiments/promo work, or just tourist companies doing the "orbital" sub-orbital tourism model (where say a group of people from anywhere in the world are traveling and make their way to the launch site, where they launch and a day or two in orbit in a Dragon v2 (so much better an experience than the mere minutes VG will provide, they could even spend longer if there was a module on the right inclination) and then with a single burn travel back to their home destination which can be pretty much any airport in the world).
High value payloads will be willing to pay for the most statistically reliable flights, which won't always be brand new rockets. The reused cores with the most flights will always be high risk, but the risk of lightly used cores will drop quickly as any wear/fatigue problems are encountered, characterized, and remedied.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 08/06/2014 02:53 am
I continue to support my original prediction (based on the well-known methodology of guessing) of 8 which turned out to be the most popular position.  Yah I'm in the popular crowd.
Cheers.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: baldusi on 08/06/2014 03:20 am
I voted 8 but believe that 7 was more likely. Any number of issues could preclude 8 flights this year. We are at just 4 flights. But six seems like a sure thing now. Seven seems likely. And eight possible.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: sdsds on 08/06/2014 03:25 am
I came up with this view: [...]
(Picture attached with a chronological timescale)

I like your chart! It motivated me to go back and look at my own. And fix some mistakes! Here's my new version, which plots a final point including this successful Asiasat-8 launch in August but assuming no other August launch. That doesn't mean I'm pessimistic; just going with data as of right now.

Of course since the spreadsheet used to generate it was wrong last time I posted a chart derived from it; it's probably still wrong! :D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: ceauke on 08/06/2014 07:49 am
SDSD, I was wondering why your graph has dips and mine not, and then I realised that I only update my graph after a successful launch. I guess this is equivalent to the positive spin that everyone is talking about: After a success everyone thinks 9 launches again.

This is becomming a statistical discovery for me. So I only count a month with a launch in as a data point whereas you count empty months as data points too resulting in a smoother more positive view of my graph. Interesting how we plotted more or less the same thing (launches over the past year) but they have quite different outcomes.

BTW, in August this year, I count 6 launches over the last year but you only have 5. Do you exclude the latest launch?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: sdsds on 08/06/2014 01:41 pm
BTW, in August this year, I count 6 launches over the last year but you only have 5. Do you exclude the latest launch?

Thanks for taking a critical look at the data presented by that chart! For the point pegged at the end of July, I count the following launches as being in the trailing 12 months: 09/29/13, 12/03/13, 01/06/14, 04/18/14, 07/14/14. Is there another that should be in that set?

For the next data point at the end of August, only provisionally shown on the chart, I think the number will be either 6 or 7 depending on whether Asiasat-6 has launched or not.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: ceauke on 08/06/2014 08:01 pm
SDSDs, you say you included the one from August (so far) but there's no dot. Of course on the second glance I see the line crosses the axis at 6. So we're alligned.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 08/07/2014 02:27 am
Are we going to see a flurry of posts on this thread every time SpaceX launches?  Guess so.
Cheers.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: tobi453 on 08/10/2014 05:47 pm
Made a collage of all F9v1.1 launches so far, see below. All images from SpaceX's website.

If the next two launches launch on time, SpaceX will have done 8 launches in 12 months...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: kch on 08/10/2014 05:55 pm
Are we going to see a flurry of posts on this thread every time SpaceX launches?  Guess so.
Cheers.

Good guess.  :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: sdsds on 08/11/2014 03:32 am
If the next two launches launch on time, SpaceX will have done 8 launches in 12 months...

If CRS-4 launches on September 12, 2014 SpaceX will have "8 launches in the past 365 days." That will last for 17 days, until September 29, 2014; then they fall back to "7 launches in the past 365 days."

But on October 1, 2014 will there have yet been a string of 12 consecutive calendar months (i.e. including only one September) in which they will have launched 8 times? (If so, I don't see it.)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: mikelepage on 08/13/2014 11:33 am
High value payloads will be willing to pay for the most statistically reliable flights, which won't always be brand new rockets. The reused cores with the most flights will always be high risk, but the risk of lightly used cores will drop quickly as any wear/fatigue problems are encountered, characterized, and remedied.

I can intuitively see what you're saying, but surely by definition a rocket has to be flown as a brand new rocket before it can be reused, so won't the brand new stages always be (by definition) more statistically reliable? (because there is more n first-flights?)  I'm guessing there is some sort of statistical function which can be used to group (for instance) flights 2-5 of any given rocket together, and show that they (cumulatively) have less issues getting off the ground than brand new rockets.  In that case, will it eventually get to the point that a rocket building company like SpaceX has to "prefly" its own rockets before they can sell the successive flights?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: guckyfan on 08/13/2014 12:00 pm

I can intuitively see what you're saying, but surely by definition a rocket has to be flown as a brand new rocket before it can be reused, so won't the brand new stages always be (by definition) more statistically reliable? (because there is more n first-flights?)  I'm guessing there is some sort of statistical function which can be used to group (for instance) flights 2-5 of any given rocket together, and show that they (cumulatively) have less issues getting off the ground than brand new rockets.  In that case, will it eventually get to the point that a rocket building company like SpaceX has to "prefly" its own rockets before they can sell the successive flights?

I would not go that far. Just say don't fly crew on the first flight and give a discount to cover for a slightly higher insurance premium for your payload. Even first flights should be reasonably safe. Same for flight 20 to 40. Quite safe but maybe not crewed and a slightly higher insurance premium.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: e of pi on 08/13/2014 12:19 pm
In that case, will it eventually get to the point that a rocket building company like SpaceX has to "prefly" its own rockets before they can sell the successive flights?

I would not go that far. Just say don't fly crew on the first flight and give a discount to cover for a slightly higher insurance premium for your payload. Even first flights should be reasonably safe. Same for flight 20 to 40. Quite safe but maybe not crewed and a slightly higher insurance premium.
It's perhaps not as crazy as it sounds. Boeing makes check flights of every new airplane they build, after all, and IIRC most car companies do a minor test drive of cars coming off the production line. At the point where any core off the line can do what F9R Dev1 does, maybe it really does make sense for SpaceX to do a "check flight" of each new core to enter service--not necessarily an orbital flight, but the same kind of near-replication of the first stage ascent/return profile that F9R is supposed to do at NM. They already do two separate static fires (core at McGregor, LV at pad), so it seems of that concept of testing as much as you can on a new core before you fly is there. If the cost-per-"hop" is low enough, such as if they actually do get to "gas-and-go" operations, it could make sense.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Tass on 08/13/2014 01:34 pm
High value payloads will be willing to pay for the most statistically reliable flights, which won't always be brand new rockets. The reused cores with the most flights will always be high risk, but the risk of lightly used cores will drop quickly as any wear/fatigue problems are encountered, characterized, and remedied.

I can intuitively see what you're saying, but surely by definition a rocket has to be flown as a brand new rocket before it can be reused, so won't the brand new stages always be (by definition) more statistically reliable?

Yes, as long as they have a perfect record with no accidents, of course there will have been more first flights than second flights, so first flights have better statistics. However that changes once a rocket fails in its first flight due to a manufacturing error.

I was going to say: "Let us hope it never happens." But I am hoping for a future with thousands of flights, and eventually it will happen.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 08/13/2014 01:39 pm
In that case, will it eventually get to the point that a rocket building company like SpaceX has to "prefly" its own rockets before they can sell the successive flights?

I would not go that far. Just say don't fly crew on the first flight and give a discount to cover for a slightly higher insurance premium for your payload. Even first flights should be reasonably safe. Same for flight 20 to 40. Quite safe but maybe not crewed and a slightly higher insurance premium.
It's perhaps not as crazy as it sounds. Boeing makes check flights of every new airplane they build, after all, and IIRC most car companies do a minor test drive of cars coming off the production line. At the point where any core off the line can do what F9R Dev1 does, maybe it really does make sense for SpaceX to do a "check flight" of each new core to enter service--not necessarily an orbital flight, but the same kind of near-replication of the first stage ascent/return profile that F9R is supposed to do at NM. They already do two separate static fires (core at McGregor, LV at pad), so it seems of that concept of testing as much as you can on a new core before you fly is there. If the cost-per-"hop" is low enough, such as if they actually do get to "gas-and-go" operations, it could make sense.

With reuse, SpaceX will have a greater pool of knowledge about failure modes than with an expendable system. That may mean each new rocket coming off the line has the potential to already be more reliable than any current expendable system. Since launches are so inherently expensive, they may opt for  a payload on the first flight as long as competitors are offering expendable rockets with arguably higher risk.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: PreferToLurk on 08/13/2014 01:56 pm


I can intuitively see what you're saying, but surely by definition a rocket has to be flown as a brand new rocket before it can be reused, so won't the brand new stages always be (by definition) more statistically reliable? (because there is more n first-flights?)

Only if you assume SpaceX never has a launch failure, or even a survived single/double engine RUD.  I think that is highly unlikely.  Never is a very long time.

Quote
  I'm guessing there is some sort of statistical function which can be used to group (for instance) flights 2-5 of any given rocket together, and show that they (cumulatively) have less issues getting off the ground than brand new rockets.  In that case, will it eventually get to the point that a rocket building company like SpaceX has to "prefly" its own rockets before they can sell the successive flights?

After a great deal of launches, and IF the first flight proves out to be SIGNIFICANTLY more risky (IE, multiple Loss of Mission failures on first flights, and virtually none on successive flights), then maybe they don't use it for manned launches.  Otherwise, it will simply all be ironed out by slight differences in insurance rates.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: llanitedave on 08/13/2014 03:08 pm
High value payloads will be willing to pay for the most statistically reliable flights, which won't always be brand new rockets. The reused cores with the most flights will always be high risk, but the risk of lightly used cores will drop quickly as any wear/fatigue problems are encountered, characterized, and remedied.

I can intuitively see what you're saying, but surely by definition a rocket has to be flown as a brand new rocket before it can be reused, so won't the brand new stages always be (by definition) more statistically reliable? (because there is more n first-flights?)  I'm guessing there is some sort of statistical function which can be used to group (for instance) flights 2-5 of any given rocket together, and show that they (cumulatively) have less issues getting off the ground than brand new rockets.  In that case, will it eventually get to the point that a rocket building company like SpaceX has to "prefly" its own rockets before they can sell the successive flights?

Every second flight of a stage is the result of a successful first flight.  But not every first flight will necessarily have a second flight.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: jg on 08/13/2014 04:22 pm
Read about the "Bathtub curve"...  This is well understood in manufacturing.

This looks like a good reference, as the wikipedia article is weak:

http://www.weibull.com/hotwire/issue21/hottopics21.htm

While some of a rocket can be tested on a test stand, other parts cannot (e.g. control software, sensors).  As the Russians recently discovered with their proton m failure (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycRVAcZC5R4), issues such as sensors being installed upside down can have catastrophic consequences.

In conclusion: if the components do not wear out quickly, first launches will likely be *more* hazardous than reflights.

But we don't yet have data on wear from returning stages (other than a bit from the grasshopper/F9R tests).

If you wonder why SpaceX wants to fly a stage a lot as in their tests to date in both Texas and soon New Mexico, you should stop wondering.  The data from those will take them from "rule of thumb" engineering experience to actual data on wear of the components required to predict useful lifetime of rocket stages.  And they will likely discover (as airplane manufacturers do) individual components that need redesign to avoid failure before the lifetime of the rocket.  And it will teach them what they need to know/change to actually achieve "rapid reusability".
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Owlon on 09/07/2014 05:46 am
AsiaSat 6 makes five! The launch per month cadence is looking pretty consistent now.

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/09/spacex-falcon-9-asiasat-6-mission/ (http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/09/spacex-falcon-9-asiasat-6-mission/)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Tass on 09/07/2014 05:51 am
With another successful launch it is time to wake this thread once again. The pace has really picked up after the terrible delays on orbcomm. I originally voted seven, and I no longer think that is too high.

Six seems a given barring very serious mishaps and delays. Seven should happen too if all goes well, and they might quite feasibly get in the eight.

But of course this is where we start hoping that RobotBeats: "SpaceX launches happen in bursts of two or three" were NOT profetic. Lets have at least four in this burst.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: QuantumG on 09/07/2014 05:53 am
I voted five. I hope I'm terribly terribly wrong.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 09/07/2014 05:59 am
Six seems a given barring very serious mishaps and delays. Seven should happen too if all goes well, and they might quite feasibly get in the eight.

I'm only aware of two more CRS launches now likely this year.  Given CRS-4 looks set to slip a bit (due to most recent AsiaSat 6 delay) I could easily imagine CRS-5 slipping to the New Year. So I'm confident of 6, 7 is possible and 8 no chance? (which is a shame as I voted 8!)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: NovaSilisko on 09/07/2014 06:04 am
So, after a long time and several launches, my new, unofficial, guess is 7. Will gladly accept more, and am hoping my original guess of 6 gets blown out of the water!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Hauerg on 09/07/2014 06:18 am
When I voted for 6 I was already including issues/delays.

I wish they would update their update/launch manifest more often. As of today they still have 9 (!) upcoming missions for 2014 (although with the *arrival at launch site definition).

(I'd give them 3 (to 4) more launches, IF the payloads were ready)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dglow on 09/07/2014 06:20 am
(I'd give them 3 (to 4) more launches, IF the payloads were ready)

Yeah, what's the story with Space Systems/Loral and Thales Alenia Space – anybody know?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: sdsds on 09/07/2014 06:27 am
In the last 365 days SpaceX has launched seven Falcon 9 orbital missions! (Yay! I voted 7. ;) )

But (somewhat pessimistically) assuming Asiasat 6 is the only launch this month, at month's end that number will have fallen to six. I attach an updated chart incorporating that pessimistic assumption.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Noah on 09/07/2014 06:58 am
What's next after the crs-4? It should have been Orbcomm but isn't that delayed until 2015? I heard that turkmensat was supposed to take its place.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 09/07/2014 08:36 am
I think that eight launches this calender year is still doable. However, that assumes that there are no major 'issues' or 'learning opportunities' arising with Dragonrider PA-1 that leads to long delays with recycling the pad for SpX-CRS-5.

Has there been any official news of Turkmensat moving to October yet from either SpaceX, the Eastern Range or the customer?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Proponent on 09/07/2014 11:30 am
I voted five. I hope I'm terribly terribly wrong.

Ditto.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: meekGee on 09/07/2014 02:18 pm
In the last 365 days SpaceX has launched seven Falcon 9 orbital missions! (Yay! I voted 7. ;) )

But (somewhat pessimistically) assuming Asiasat 6 is the only launch this month, at month's end that number will have fallen to six. I attach an updated chart incorporating that pessimistic assumption.
This graph should be live and sticky at the top of the missions section
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: BrianNH on 09/07/2014 02:59 pm
Don't forget that the pad abort is currently scheduled for November, so that will take up pad time and doesn't count toward the launch rate.  7 or 8 for this year seems reasonable.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 09/07/2014 03:06 pm
In the last 365 days SpaceX has launched seven Falcon 9 orbital missions! (Yay! I voted 7. ;) )

But (somewhat pessimistically) assuming Asiasat 6 is the only launch this month, at month's end that number will have fallen to six. I attach an updated chart incorporating that pessimistic assumption.
This graph should be live and sticky at the top of the missions section

If sdsds will 1) consent and 2) commit to periodic updates... he should start a new thread with just the graph and you or I or some other mod can pin it ...  because I agree, I love that graph.  Here's hoping that someday soon we will NEED log scale instead of linear :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: wannamoonbase on 09/07/2014 03:43 pm
With the pad abort test 7 seems very reasonable, 8 possible but difficult as that is a total of 4 pad flows.

Plus the Pad abort is the first Dragon v2.  Certainly there will be some period of time just for that.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dglow on 09/07/2014 03:51 pm
Are we certain Pad Abort will occupy the pad itself? It was recently confirmed that Dragon will abort from a stand and not a rocket stage. I'm curious as to where they place that stand.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: RonM on 09/07/2014 04:00 pm
Are we certain Pad Abort will occupy the pad itself? It was recently confirmed that Dragon will abort from a stand and not a rocket stage. I'm curious as to where they place that stand.

Good point. Since they don't have a F9 to fuel, they could do the test at a different pad.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: guckyfan on 09/07/2014 04:01 pm
Are we certain Pad Abort will occupy the pad itself? It was recently confirmed that Dragon will abort from a stand and not a rocket stage. I'm curious as to where they place that stand.

My understanding was that this stand will be erected by the TE so on the pad, for the umbilicals available that way at the hight, where the Dragon will be when on a Falcon 9. Question is, how long the hangar and TE will be needed.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 09/07/2014 04:38 pm
I'm thinking it will be like a CRS pad flow, mostly. Dragon PA-1 will almost certainly be prepared in the SPF like any cargo Dragon, whilst the boilerplate Falcon will be assembled in the HIF. Instead of ensuring cargo is installed properly, I imagine that all the extra man hours will instead be spent on a microscopic check, re-check and re-re-check of the Super-Dracos and the Pad Abort auto-sequence software.

The real tricky time will come after erecting the test article on the pad. I can see there being a dozen dry runs over the period of two or three weeks (maybe including scrubs) before they proceed to a live firing of the LAS.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 09/07/2014 06:35 pm

Has there been any official news of Turkmensat moving to October yet from either SpaceX, the Eastern Range or the customer?

The last information about Turkmensat from April mentioned they thought spacecraft will ready in September (as I'm interpreting this sentence).

Quote
At the end of September, to the space agency specialists’ opinion, the device intended for creation of national space communication system, will be assembled and prepared for exploitation at the orbit.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29878.msg1236766#msg1236766
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars_J on 09/09/2014 06:27 am
Now that AsiaSat-6 has launched, SpaceX has now accomplished 7 flights in the last 12 months. And they might even get an 8th in before the 1 year anniversary of the first F9 v1.1 flight.

A couple of months back, I seem to recall that an argument in a thread where some posters were... upset... that SpaceX was causing delays for NASA and their customers with the irresponsible switch from v1.0 to v1.1. But let's look at the flight history:

Falcon 9 v1.0 - 5 flights in 2 yrs and 9 months.
Falcon 9 v1.1 - 7 flights in 12 months.

I hate to tell "I told you so"... No, scratch that. This time I like you say "I told you so". :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: meekGee on 09/09/2014 09:55 pm
Now that AsiaSat-6 has launched, SpaceX has now accomplished 7 flights in the last 12 months. And they might even get an 8th in before the 1 year anniversary of the first F9 v1.1 flight.

A couple of months back, I seem to recall that an argument in a thread where some posters were... upset... that SpaceX was causing delays for NASA and their customers with the irresponsible switch from v1.0 to v1.1. But let's look at the flight history:

Falcon 9 v1.0 - 5 flights in 2 yrs and 9 months.
Falcon 9 v1.1 - 7 flights in 12 months.

I hate to tell "I told you so"... No, scratch that. This time I like you say "I told you so". :)

Every single time, SpaceX chose to invest in a better future flight rate then stop development and "fly what you have".   It's called forward planning.  The nerve!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 09/09/2014 10:22 pm
I voted 10.   ::)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MichaelRBrumm on 09/10/2014 12:59 am
I wouldn't bet on 30 launches (every 12 days) in 2015, but clearly SpaceX is moving forward. I think the only comparable instance would be Ariane 5's 25 day pad turnaround in 2008. So, anything less than 25 days is a significant milestone.

This instance of a a quick launch pad turnaround would prove SpaceX's capability in some areas of their process, while it is obvious that improvements in other areas are needed before this would be repeatable. By honing in on the processes that hold them back, I expect we should see great improvements in the near future.

Call me optimistic or a kool-aid drinker, but this seems to me like a sober analysis of the situation, and I did it without casting aspersions on the sanity or intelligence of others.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: macpacheco on 09/10/2014 01:50 am
I voted 12 or more... Obviously I was way to optimist, and I won't vote 30+ for next year.
I was merely six months early on expected launch cadence.
Even if CRS4 takes a 8 day delay, it will still show 4 consecutive launches with an average 4 week between launch interval, only expected to be broken by the DragonV2 pad abort test and perhaps not having enough payloads ready to launch...
There's still good chances of another 3 launches this year (CRS4, CRS5 plus one GEO bird).
And for 2014, the question is if an average 3 weeks between launches for 2015 will be possible this soon, considering having enough payloads ready to go, perhaps SpaceX could land a few last minute cancellations away from ILS or Ariane ?
But 14 launches in 2015 minimum, and probably will exceed that, considering LC39A and Vanderberg being used at least 4 times combined.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 09/10/2014 04:33 am
Major trimming. Someone who ought to know better posted some flame bait, several posters took it ... and away we went to the races.

All gone to the howling aether. You chaps know better.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 09/10/2014 04:34 am
I voted 12 or more... Obviously I was way to optimist, and I won't vote 30+ for next year.
I was merely six months early on expected launch cadence.
Even if CRS4 takes a 8 day delay, it will still show 4 consecutive launches with an average 4 week between launch interval, only expected to be broken by the DragonV2 pad abort test and perhaps not having enough payloads ready to launch...
There's still good chances of another 3 launches this year (CRS4, CRS5 plus one GEO bird).
And for 2014, the question is if an average 3 weeks between launches for 2015 will be possible this soon, considering having enough payloads ready to go, perhaps SpaceX could land a few last minute cancellations away from ILS or Ariane ?
But 14 launches in 2015 minimum, and probably will exceed that, considering LC39A and Vanderberg being used at least 4 times combined.

So you are STILL voting on the 2014 poll and want to start voting EARLY on the 2015 poll.
We has our chances for this year and will have our opportunities in good time for next year, which will be informed by how this year finishes out.
Patience, Grasshopper!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dglow on 09/10/2014 05:00 am
I voted 10.   ::)

Likewise. At the time was thinking FH's Demo out of Vandenberg would add to the count.
I'm bummed FH moved to 39A. Vandy still has Dragon in-flight abort, though, which will be excellent viewing!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MP99 on 09/10/2014 06:09 am


I wouldn't bet on 30 launches (every 12 days) in 2015, but clearly SpaceX is moving forward. I think the only comparable instance would be Ariane 5's 25 day pad turnaround in 2008. So, anything less than 25 days is a significant milestone.

This instance of a a quick launch pad turnaround would prove SpaceX's capability in some areas of their process, while it is obvious that improvements in other areas are needed before this would be repeatable. By honing in on the processes that hold them back, I expect we should see great improvements in the near future.

Call me optimistic or a kool-aid drinker, but this seems to me like a sober analysis of the situation, and I did it without casting aspersions on the sanity or intelligence of others.

Alternative query re this short turnaround...

Does a short turnaround (even just for at-the-pad ops) say anything about the amount of resource that SpaceX need to make a launch, and can we infer anything from that re their costs compared to other providers?

Cheers, Martin
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: macpacheco on 09/11/2014 04:00 am
I voted 12 or more... Obviously I was way to optimist, and I won't vote 30+ for next year.
I was merely six months early on expected launch cadence.
Even if CRS4 takes a 8 day delay, it will still show 4 consecutive launches with an average 4 week between launch interval, only expected to be broken by the DragonV2 pad abort test and perhaps not having enough payloads ready to launch...
There's still good chances of another 3 launches this year (CRS4, CRS5 plus one GEO bird).
And for 2014, the question is if an average 3 weeks between launches for 2015 will be possible this soon, considering having enough payloads ready to go, perhaps SpaceX could land a few last minute cancellations away from ILS or Ariane ?
But 14 launches in 2015 minimum, and probably will exceed that, considering LC39A and Vanderberg being used at least 4 times combined.
So you are STILL voting on the 2014 poll and want to start voting EARLY on the 2015 poll.
We has our chances for this year and will have our opportunities in good time for next year, which will be informed by how this year finishes out.
Patience, Grasshopper!
Nooo, I voted 12 or more less than 15 days after the 2014 pool opened... My post was a follow up on my choice, which was crazy back then, but now I'm computing that if SpaceX could launch even once every 5 weeks since early this year, they could be over 12 this year. So they have shown they are already capable of a launch every 4 weeks, and a launch every 3 weeks regular cadence might not be too far off...
Got it ?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 09/11/2014 06:14 pm
they could be over 12 this year. So they have shown they are already capable of a launch every 4 weeks, and a launch every 3 weeks regular cadence might not be too far off... Got it ?
No one cares about theoretical limits, only how much they actually launched.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Owlon on 09/21/2014 06:11 am
And CRS-4 makes six, with a full three months left in the year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Moe Grills on 09/21/2014 06:21 am
  OK, we've just witnessed the sixth successful SpaceX orbital launch for 2014. Possibly there may be a seventh.
But perspective and congratulations are called for. SpaceX now has a year which it can boast 1/2 dozen successful orbital launches; averaging one every two months. Not bad!!! SpaceX is now in the league that has been the preserve of defunct or still active sat launching businesses like McDonnell Douglas, Lockheed Martin, etc....A launch attempt for the first (Saturn-class) FH booster sometime in 2015 now becomes a real possibility.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: TripD on 09/21/2014 06:36 am
It's hard to imagine something as exciting as a 3 Falcon core rocket lighting up the evening sky.  Just a little wake-up call to Mars.  We are coming to meet yah.  It won't be long now.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 09/21/2014 06:38 am
So....no luck if you have voted 9!  ;)

Stephen Clark ‏@StephenClark1
SpaceX: We plan two more Falcon 9 launches this year (another Dragon CRS flight and a commercial launch). Plus pad abort test from the Cape.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: sdsds on 09/21/2014 06:42 am
Wow. Just ... wow. The line showing launches in the trailing twelve months looks ... amazing.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Zed_Noir on 09/21/2014 06:46 am
  OK, we've just witnessed the sixth successful SpaceX orbital launch for 2014. Possibly there may be a seventh.
But perspective and congratulations are called for. SpaceX now has a year which it can boast 1/2 dozen successful orbital launches; averaging one every two months. Not bad!!! SpaceX is now in the league that has been the preserve of defunct or still active sat launching businesses like McDonnell Douglas, Lockheed Martin, etc....A launch attempt for the first (Saturn-class) FH booster sometime in 2015 now becomes a real possibility.
Depending on how soon SpaceX can get LC-39A ready. Maybe 3rd or 4th quarter of 2015.

Damn, vote for 10 flights. Was expecting the FH or some other mission out of VAFB this year plus the second Orbcom flight.
Title: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars-J on 09/21/2014 06:51 am
But perspective and congratulations are called for. SpaceX now has a year which it can boast 1/2 dozen successful orbital launches; averaging one every two months. Not bad!!!

More than that, actually. SpaceX has now accomplished *8* launches in the last 12 months. All of them being F9v1.1. (The first v1.1 flight was sept 29, 2013)

And 7 launches from the same pad in ~9 months.

"Not bad"? I would call it unprecedented for a new orbital launch vehicle in the modern era.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: sdsds on 09/21/2014 07:01 am
More than that, actually. SpaceX has now accomplished *8* launches in the last 12 months. All of them being F9v1.1. (The first v1.1 flight was sept 29, 2013)

I know I'm being pedantic, but that's eight flights in the last 365 days. There isn't (yet) a string of twelve consecutive calendar months -- you know, the ones with names like "January" -- in which there have been eight launches. You can't count both September of 2013 and September of 2014; that would be thirteen consecutive months.

At least, that's how I count it! ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars-J on 09/21/2014 07:04 am

More than that, actually. SpaceX has now accomplished *8* launches in the last 12 months. All of them being F9v1.1. (The first v1.1 flight was sept 29, 2013)

I know I'm being pedantic, but that's eight flights in the last 365 days. There isn't (yet) a string of twelve consecutive calendar months -- you know, the ones with names like "January" -- in which there have been eight launches. You can't count both September of 2013 and September of 2014; that would be thirteen consecutive months.

At least, that's how I count it! ;)

Fine. 8 launches in less than a full year, less than 365 days. Feel better?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: macpacheco on 09/21/2014 07:09 am
It's starting to smell like 20+ launches for 2015 !
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 09/21/2014 08:01 am
It's starting to smell like 20+ launches for 2015 !

Well, we'll see. I'm probably going to vote '12' in next year's poll.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: guckyfan on 09/21/2014 08:11 am
It's starting to smell like 20+ launches for 2015 !

Well, we'll see. I'm probably going to vote '12' in next year's poll.

I would like a vote option "Flying the number of payloads the customers deliver to the launchsite(s). Because that is what they will fly.

Hans said during the pre launch presser they are capable of a 2 week turnaround by doing part of the preparation work off pad. That wouled be a possible number of 26 launchs just from LC-40. Of course reduced by weather and other launches constraining the use of time slots.



Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Silmfeanor on 09/21/2014 08:30 am
Can we please, please keep the Number of SpaceX Orbital Flights in 2015 away from this thread - untill a new thread is made in due time?
Thank you.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Arb on 09/21/2014 11:25 am
Hans said during the pre launch presser they are capable of a 2 week turnaround by doing part of the preparation work off pad.

And in the post flight presser Hans said he thinks they could manage a one week turnaround...

Edit: See 05:29 in http://www.space-multimedia.nl.eu.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9087:spacex-crs-4dragon-post-launch-news-conference&catid=1:latest (http://www.space-multimedia.nl.eu.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9087:spacex-crs-4dragon-post-launch-news-conference&catid=1:latest)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Dave G on 09/21/2014 12:15 pm
And in the post flight presser Hans said he thinks they could manage a one week turnaround...

Edit: See 05:29 in http://www.space-multimedia.nl.eu.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9087:spacex-crs-4dragon-post-launch-news-conference&catid=1:latest (http://www.space-multimedia.nl.eu.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9087:spacex-crs-4dragon-post-launch-news-conference&catid=1:latest)

At 5:50, he seemed to qualify that the 1-week turnaround would be "in parallel", and that was after mentioning work on a second launch pad at 4:55. 

So I read this to mean a 2-week turnaround per pad.

By the way, thanks for the link.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ludus on 09/21/2014 03:46 pm
This thread is definitely showing that SpaceX is outperforming expectations from the beginning of the year. I don't think many people would have bet on the possibility of two launches within two weeks on the same pad in 2014.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 09/21/2014 04:18 pm
It's starting to smell like 20+ launches for 2015 !
Aaaand already unrealistic expectations. I told ya there will be folks thinking two-week turnaround is SOP now. ::)

Hans said during the pre launch presser they are capable of a 2 week turnaround by doing part of the preparation work off pad.
And in the post flight presser Hans said he thinks they could manage a one week turnaround...
I'm not interested in how much they theoretically can launch in some unspecified future. I am interested in how much they can ACTUALLY launch in given year.

Ok, enough of party-crashing, time for some good news: looks like fourm consensus (eight launches) is still possible and if missed, it will be barely like previous year. Disclaimer: I voted for seven.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Silmfeanor on 09/21/2014 04:18 pm
This thread is definitely showing that SpaceX is outperforming expectations from the beginning of the year. I don't think many people would have bet on the possibility of two launches within two weeks on the same pad in 2014.
Outperforming some expectations, yes, for sure!
But look at where the polls are - we haven't had 8 flights yet; even if SpaceX gets there, they'll still have failed lots of expectations of voters here!  ;)
Not that the expectations matter much, especially if there are people who voted 1 or 12+, or if you read the thread, some who said 20  :o
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Tass on 09/21/2014 04:30 pm
Outperforming some expectations, yes, for sure!
But look at where the polls are - we haven't had 8 flights yet; even if SpaceX gets there, they'll still have failed lots of expectations of voters here!  ;)

They are reaching (average) expectations despite the long delay early in the year. They are definitely outperforming expectations from May.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: tobi453 on 09/21/2014 04:34 pm
They have now 6 launches and 7-8 are possible, so the majority may still win. ;)

But look at this!
2013: 3 flights
2014: 6-8 flights
2015: 12-16 flights ?

Is this exponential growth for at least 2 years? Is SpaceX's launch rate growing faster than Moore's law? ;)

Well, I admit I have problems believing in 24-32 launches in 2016, but what do I know?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Joffan on 09/21/2014 04:39 pm
They have now 6 launches and 7-8 are possible, so the majority may still win. ;)

But look at this!
2013: 3 flights
2014: 6-8 flights
2015: 12-16 flights ?

Is this exponential growth for at least 2 years? Is SpaceX's launch rate growing faster than Moore's law? ;)

Well, I admit I have problems believing in 24-32 launches in 2016, but what do I know?

Exponential speculation, anyway. It could be, might be, some kind of growth after we actually get the data.

Probably those are still compatible with a linear fit to within uncertainty, anyway, bearing in mind that 2013 might be called 3.5 (given most of the pad work to launch Thiacom-6 was done then).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: JamesH on 09/21/2014 04:59 pm
I'm not interested in how much they theoretically can launch in some unspecified future. I am interested in how much they can ACTUALLY launch in given year.

Which is impossible to know until the end of the 'year' (and that depends on when you start your year of course) when you have a known, actual number. And even then, the ACTUAL number you want will be irrelevant for the next year anyway, because the cadence is likely to increase as they get better at it.. So what do you actually mean by ACTUAL number? As far as I can see, there is no such thing. It will vary from month to month and year to year.

So until the end of the year (and you only have three and a half months to keep your party crashing in check), theoretical is all you have,

(Theoretically, if you started your year a month ago, the flight rate will be very good indeed)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 09/21/2014 05:19 pm
My vote was 10 based on the number of supposedly ready sats and Dragons to launch this year which included 2 launches from Vandenberg.  It also was based on a 4 week minimum pad turnaround and a 50% slip amount (2 weeks) because of problems (technical, weather, range scheduling, payload problems). With a demonstrated 2 week minimum interval between launches they could accomplish 8 launches easily this year and also perform the pad abort and Max-Q abort tests as well.  Basiclly 4 more pad activities in a period of ~15 weeks remaining in this year for an almost 4 week turnaround time.  This should be plenty of time to accomplish the 4 tasks.  The average slip does not change even though they can turn the pad around in 14 days.  So the average launch rate would be 13 launches per year from one pad.

The average slip amount per launch (~2 weeks) is the same almost irregadless of launch provider or launch rate.

So the the higher the launch rate the more significant slips are to the calculation of launch rate.  If you launch 4 times per year then the slip amounts only account for 15% of the interval. With 13 launches per year the slip amounts would account for 50% of the interval.  Making it seem like the provider is having trouble with maintaining schedules.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 09/21/2014 11:18 pm
So what do you actually mean by ACTUAL number?
That theoretical maximum output (like these 7 days per launch) is meaningless when trying to estimate actual number of launches that will happen in given year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 09/22/2014 03:27 am
They have now 6 launches and 7-8 are possible, so the majority may still win. ;)

But look at this!
2013: 3 flights
2014: 6-8 flights
2015: 12-16 flights ?

Is this exponential growth for at least 2 years? Is SpaceX's launch rate growing faster than Moore's law? ;)

Well, I admit I have problems believing in 24-32 launches in 2016, but what do I know?

How are eight possible now?  So far as I'm aware, there's now only SpaceX CRS-5 left in December.  What other orbital payloads are currently available for flight?
Cheers.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars-J on 09/22/2014 03:43 am
They have now 6 launches and 7-8 are possible, so the majority may still win. ;)

But look at this!
2013: 3 flights
2014: 6-8 flights
2015: 12-16 flights ?

Is this exponential growth for at least 2 years? Is SpaceX's launch rate growing faster than Moore's law? ;)

Well, I admit I have problems believing in 24-32 launches in 2016, but what do I know?

How are eight possible now?  So far as I'm aware, there's now only SpaceX CRS-5 left in December.  What other orbital payloads are currently available for flight?
Cheers.

It was mentioned in the post-flight press conference that they expected to do two more flights this year - CRS-5 and a commercial mission (Orbcomm? Turkmenistan?) - And also the Dragon v2 pad abort.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 09/22/2014 05:08 am
They have now 6 launches and 7-8 are possible, so the majority may still win. ;)

But look at this!
2013: 3 flights
2014: 6-8 flights
2015: 12-16 flights ?

Is this exponential growth for at least 2 years? Is SpaceX's launch rate growing faster than Moore's law?

Well, I admit I have problems believing in 24-32 launches in 2016, but what do I know?
Exponential speculation, anyway. It could be, might be, some kind of growth after we actually get the data.
(snip)
No.  It's hyperbolic speculation.  ;)
And it is no longer about the topic, the number of flights in 2014.
There is again evidence that the number of orbital launches will match the expected value from the poll.

"Please remain in your seats with your seatbelt fastened until the [year of launching] has come to a complete stop."
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Elmar Moelzer on 09/22/2014 05:27 am
I am so glad they have proven me wrong (voted for 5). They are really picking up now!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: beancounter on 09/23/2014 03:07 am
They have now 6 launches and 7-8 are possible, so the majority may still win. ;)

But look at this!
2013: 3 flights
2014: 6-8 flights
2015: 12-16 flights ?

Is this exponential growth for at least 2 years? Is SpaceX's launch rate growing faster than Moore's law? ;)

Well, I admit I have problems believing in 24-32 launches in 2016, but what do I know?

How are eight possible now?  So far as I'm aware, there's now only SpaceX CRS-5 left in December.  What other orbital payloads are currently available for flight?
Cheers.

It was mentioned in the post-flight press conference that they expected to do two more flights this year - CRS-5 and a commercial mission (Orbcomm? Turkmenistan?) - And also the Dragon v2 pad abort.

Pad abort's not an orbital flight so doesn't count.  So we've got SpaceX CRS-5 and ...
Cheers
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: JamesH on 09/24/2014 09:45 am
So what do you actually mean by ACTUAL number?
That theoretical maximum output (like these 7 days per launch) is meaningless when trying to estimate actual number of launches that will happen in given year.

No it isn't. It gives you a baseline figure - the max possible (although that is likely to change anyway as more launch sites come online and they get better at everything). The actual number of launches will be between 0 and that moving number.

But trying to estimate the actual number of launches in a given year IS pointless. It's like asking 'How many launches are they going to do in 2018" given what we know now.

The absolute best way of knowing how many launches there will be in a year, is to wait for the end of that year and count them. That process takes in to account everything - the number of people wanting a launch, the number of launchers that can be made, the weather, equipment failures, aliens telling us to stay down here etc.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jcc on 09/25/2014 08:27 pm
Estimating the number of launches is pointless, but fun!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: deruch on 09/26/2014 01:57 am
They have now 6 launches and 7-8 are possible, so the majority may still win. ;)

But look at this!
2013: 3 flights
2014: 6-8 flights
2015: 12-16 flights ?

Is this exponential growth for at least 2 years? Is SpaceX's launch rate growing faster than Moore's law? ;)

Well, I admit I have problems believing in 24-32 launches in 2016, but what do I know?

How are eight possible now?  So far as I'm aware, there's now only SpaceX CRS-5 left in December.  What other orbital payloads are currently available for flight?
Cheers.

It was mentioned in the post-flight press conference that they expected to do two more flights this year - CRS-5 and a commercial mission (Orbcomm? Turkmenistan?) - And also the Dragon v2 pad abort.

It was?  I just rewatched it and didn't hear that (though I may have missed it again).  Can you provide a link and time mark?  The closest that I heard to it was Hans mentioning that "In the last 12 months [sic] we had 8 missions, if I count everything together." (@5m:05s (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35686.msg1260305#msg1260305))  But that statement was about past launches (technically, the number of launches in the trailing 365 days not 12 months), not the number of launches for this calendar year. 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars-J on 09/26/2014 04:48 am
Hmm, perhaps it was from a tweet somewhere. Trying to find it, but it seemed to be sourced from a press Q&A at that press conference (or following it).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Razvan on 09/26/2014 06:15 am
There seem to be 3 more flights in the 4th Quarter 2014:

- Orbcomm (11 sats) 2, about which SpaceX stated that it will be the first reusable booster landing of solid surface;

- CRS5, SpaceX will try second landing on solid surface;

- Turkmensat 1
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: deruch on 09/26/2014 07:36 am
Hmm, perhaps it was from a tweet somewhere. Trying to find it, but it seemed to be sourced from a press Q&A at that press conference (or following it).

I think I found your source!  I remembered seeing something about it as well, but couldn't remember where either.  I trawled through the Lauch manifest analysis thread and found it:

So back on topic, here is SpaceX's current manifest:

Stephen Clark ‏@StephenClark1
SpaceX: We plan two more Falcon 9 launches this year (another Dragon CRS flight and a commercial launch). Plus pad abort test from the Cape.

Clark posted it after the launch of CRS-4 but before he tweeted out stuff Hans said during the post-lauch press'er.  So maybe it came from a statement made by SpaceX during the launch??  I only watched the NASA feed, so I don't know.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: deruch on 09/26/2014 07:56 am
There seem to be 3 more flights in the 4th Quarter 2014:

- Orbcomm (11 sats) 2, about which SpaceX stated that it will be the first reusable booster landing of solid surface;

- CRS5, SpaceX will try second landing on solid surface;

- Turkmensat 1

-Orbcomm OG2- mission 2 has been delayed until 2015.  According to Orbcomm, this was done at their request in order to provide more time for on orbit testing and checkout of the recently launched 1st portion of the constellation.  This remains the most up to date information about that launch even though neither Orbcomm's nor SpaceX's website reflect the fact.

-CRS-5 is set for December.

-There has been no update on TurkmenSat-1 since about April, when it was reported in a Turkmen newpaper that they would launch in November.  No statements from Thales Alenia, the contractor, regarding the satellite's readiness have been publicized.

As I quoted above: Stephen Clark a reporter for SpaceflightNow.com tweeted that SpaceX had said there would be 2 more orbital flights in 2014 in addition to the pad abort.  As this thread it limited to discussion of purely the number of launches, further speculation and discussion of which satellite will be the "commercial launch" should be kept in the SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32503.0), where all the above information is being canvassed.   
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 09/26/2014 12:13 pm
There seem to be 3 more flights in the 4th Quarter 2014:

- Orbcomm (11 sats) 2, about which SpaceX stated that it will be the first reusable booster landing of solid surface;

- CRS5, SpaceX will try second landing on solid surface;

- Turkmensat 1

-Orbcomm OG2- mission 2 has been delayed until 2015.  According to Orbcomm, this was done at their request in order to provide more time for on orbit testing and checkout of the recently launched 1st portion of the constellation.  This remains the most up to date information about that launch even though neither Orbcomm's nor SpaceX's website reflect the fact.

Could you please quote this announcement?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Razvan on 09/26/2014 02:14 pm
http://spacexstats.com/upcoming.php
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: macpacheco on 09/26/2014 02:43 pm
-Orbcomm OG2- mission 2 has been delayed until 2015.  According to Orbcomm, this was done at their request in order to provide more time for on orbit testing and checkout of the recently launched 1st portion of the constellation.  This remains the most up to date information about that launch even though neither Orbcomm's nor SpaceX's website reflect the fact.
This WAS true. However the first batch of OG2 satellites have been in full commercial operation (for about 2 weeks), and concurrently with those sats being brough to full operation there was this chat that Orbcomm no longer needed to wait for further testing.
The first fact can be found on orbcomm website, the second (that Orbcomm is ready for its 2nd OG2 launch I got from L1 posts).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: gongora on 09/26/2014 03:31 pm
http://spacexstats.com/upcoming.php

That is not an official SpaceX schedule, it's just somebody's guess at what the schedule will be.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 09/26/2014 04:38 pm
Sorry. I really need to re-ask this. Does anyone have a quote or source that specifically states that Orbcomm requested a delay in the flight to allow for more testing?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: su27k on 09/26/2014 04:50 pm
Sorry. I really need to re-ask this. Does anyone have a quote or source that specifically states that Orbcomm requested a delay in the flight to allow for more testing?

http://spacenews.com/article/financial-report/41523orbcomm-expects-revenue-boost-now-that-spacex-has-patched-firm’s-“hole

Quote
The July 14 launch was of six of the 18 second-generation satellites. The remaining 11 are scheduled for launch in the coming months on a single SpaceX Falcon 9.

The launch had been scheduled for late this year, but Eisenberg said it may slip to early 2015. Hawthorne, California-based SpaceX is faced with a crowded manifest in 2014 and is already several months behind the schedule originally announced. The question has been how many satellites manifested for 2014 would be moved into 2015.

During the conference call, Eisenberg did not evoke a SpaceX launch bottleneck. Instead, he suggested it was Orbcomm that would prefer not to rush into a second launch before the first satellites are thoroughly tested. “Before I give you an exact date, let’s get these guys in service and make sure they’re performing as expected,” he said.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: ncb1397 on 09/26/2014 04:56 pm
How did "may slip to 2015" become confirmed 2015 NET?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 09/26/2014 05:22 pm
So this is the quote then?

Quote
Before I give you an exact date, let’s get these guys in service and make sure they’re performing as expected

Is there another quote? This doesn't exactly translate into a request for any date, much less for a 2015 date. The careful wording and context sounds a little like a company giving generous PR cover to their launch provider in case of a slip.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Razvan on 09/26/2014 07:05 pm
http://www.satbeams.com/satellites?id=2619

Turkmensat 1, launch date: 30-Mar-2015 (Estimated)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: saliva_sweet on 09/26/2014 10:12 pm
http://www.satbeams.com/satellites?id=2619

Turkmensat 1, launch date: 30-Mar-2015 (Estimated)
How? I wonder.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Dave G on 09/26/2014 11:06 pm
If Orbcomm is delaying mission 2, and with Dragon already berthed at the ISS, could SpaceX launch any of these other flights they have slated for 2014 in the interim?  Would any of these be ready to launch b4 November?

2014  Space Systems/Loral  Cape Canaveral  Falcon 9     
2014  Thales Alenia Space (Turkmenistan)  Cape Canaveral  Falcon 9     
2014  DSCOVR (USAF)  Cape Canaveral  Falcon 9     
2014  CONAE (Argentina)  Vandenberg  Falcon 9     
2014  Asia Broadcast Satellite/Satmex  Cape Canaveral  Falcon 9 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: deruch on 09/26/2014 11:49 pm
So this is the quote then?

Quote
Before I give you an exact date, let’s get these guys in service and make sure they’re performing as expected

Is there another quote? This doesn't exactly translate into a request for any date, much less for a 2015 date. The careful wording and context sounds a little like a company giving generous PR cover to their launch provider in case of a slip.

That and from the same article (http://spacenews.com/article/financial-report/41523orbcomm-expects-revenue-boost-now-that-spacex-has-patched-firm%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%9Chole):
Quote
Insurance underwriters have said that before approving a second launch, they want to be sure that the first satellites, using a new skeletal structure developed by Sierra Nevada Corp. of Sparks, Nevada, and a payload built by Boeing subsidiary Argon ST of Fairfax, Virginia, are performing well.

I know that there had never been an announced change to the NET date in October.  But I had thought that the underlying quote had been firmer.  Something more along the lines of "We don't expect to launch before 1Q2015."  I guess I was misremembering.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: deruch on 09/27/2014 01:13 am
It was this tweet that suggested it, but it predated Orbcomm's website post by a few days:

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/497694722337411072

I just listened to the archived Orbcomm 2Q2014 Results conference call (http://event.on24.com/r.htm?e=828239&s=1&k=4948FF4934E965F942FCB5BC77E3B114) (non-pay registration required, but no email confirmation), which was the source for both the SN article and the @pbdes tweet.  Here's the full quote from the Q&A portion at the end of the call, where the question was regarding when the second launch would take place:

Quote from: Orbcomm CEO Eisenberg
We're not sure.  It could be a Q4[2014] event or it could be a Q1[2015] event, it's kind of right there on the cusp.  If you look at these OG2 satellites, what we've done so far is we've tested out the bus, and some of the features on the payload.  Notably the connectivity with the earth stations cause you need it for talking to the satellites.  Next phase is testing the payloads that talk to the communicators.  The good news is that it's the exact same technology.  So we assume it's going well.  Before giving an exact date let's get these guys in service and ensure they're performing as expected.

There were a few other remarks that touched on the OG2 second mission during the prepared remarks.  Both by the CEO and the CFO.  None of them were definitive.
[/end]


The relevant information for this thread is the Stephen Clark tweet that quoted SpaceX as saying there would be 2 further orbital launches this year.  Assuming they can hit their mark, that will make it 8 for the year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: dante2308 on 09/27/2014 01:18 pm
Thank you. That clears up my confusion about the Orbcomm flight. I would guess that SpaceX is waiting on a payload to finish out 2014, not vice versa. At least that makes sense considering their demonstration of launch cadence.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: baldusi on 09/27/2014 03:40 pm

Thank you. That clears up my confusion about the Orbcomm flight. I would guess that SpaceX is waiting on a payload to finish out 2014, not vice versa. At least that makes sense considering their demonstration of launch cadence.
Which is the norm for well performing launch contractors.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: EchoLogic on 09/27/2014 04:43 pm
http://spacexstats.com/upcoming.php

That is not an official SpaceX schedule, it's just somebody's guess at what the schedule will be.

Signed up to make this comment. I'm the developer of said site, some of you may also recognize me as a moderator of another well-known spaceflight forum regarding SpaceX that I shall not mention.  ;)

With all due respect, the dates and times listed on SpaceX Stats are not just "guesses". I don't update these values on a whim, only when given hard evidence (official manifests, press conferences, emails, acquired industry information). Internally, I try to maintain a reference log of why each manifest update was performed.

Saying that, Orbcomm OG2 L2 has at least slipped to December, so I have updated the site to reflect this.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: wannamoonbase on 09/27/2014 04:50 pm
From SFN:

Dec 1 - CRS 5
Late Dec - Orbcomm
Jan 13 - DSCOVR
Feb 4 - CES 6

That's an impressive little stretch. Looks like they maybe getting thier legs!

Somewhere in there we should see a barge or land landing.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Razvan on 09/27/2014 05:17 pm
Thank you. That clears up my confusion about the Orbcomm flight. I would guess that SpaceX is waiting on a payload to finish out 2014, not vice versa. At least that makes sense considering their demonstration of launch cadence.
And, I would add, it is a good point SpaceX just made with the view to coming selection process under CRS2.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: tobi453 on 09/27/2014 05:31 pm
Signed up to make this comment. I'm the developer of said site, some of you may also recognize me as a moderator of another well-known spaceflight forum regarding SpaceX that I shall not mention.  ;)

You should update stats like turnaround time and other things. ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: EchoLogic on 09/27/2014 05:40 pm
Signed up to make this comment. I'm the developer of said site, some of you may also recognize me as a moderator of another well-known spaceflight forum regarding SpaceX that I shall not mention.  ;)

You should update stats like turnaround time and other things. ;)

We're likely getting off topic here, so I'll keep it short.

All the stats are automatically updated once a launch switches from 'Upcoming' to 'Complete'. Currently I have CRS-4 marked as 'In Progress', so the stats won't update just yet :).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 09/27/2014 07:41 pm

Feb 4 - CES 6


I'm guessing you mean CRS-6? I thought I should ask because 'CES' sounds plausible as the series name of a different spacecraft or customer.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AncientU on 09/27/2014 08:08 pm
Signed up to make this comment. I'm the developer of said site, some of you may also recognize me as a moderator of another well-known spaceflight forum regarding SpaceX that I shall not mention.  ;)

You should update stats like turnaround time and other things. ;)

We're likely getting off topic here, so I'll keep it short.

All the stats are automatically updated once a launch switches from 'Upcoming' to 'Complete'. Currently I have CRS-4 marked as 'In Progress', so the stats won't update just yet :).

If the stats are launches, CRS-4 launch is complete.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: EchoLogic on 10/03/2014 02:24 pm
Signed up to make this comment. I'm the developer of said site, some of you may also recognize me as a moderator of another well-known spaceflight forum regarding SpaceX that I shall not mention.  ;)

You should update stats like turnaround time and other things. ;)

We're likely getting off topic here, so I'll keep it short.

All the stats are automatically updated once a launch switches from 'Upcoming' to 'Complete'. Currently I have CRS-4 marked as 'In Progress', so the stats won't update just yet :).

If the stats are launches, CRS-4 launch is complete.


Yeah, I need to work on my backend logic a bit to distinguish between Cargo Missions, where completeness is defined as successful Dragon reentry, and just launches where a launch is done on payload sep.

I'm sort of busy with uni exams and work at the moment, so it'll have to wait until mid November. Sorry.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AncientU on 10/03/2014 05:44 pm
No worries mate.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: majormajor42 on 10/03/2014 06:11 pm
FWIW, if they fly eight, "wisdom of the crowd" will win again. That wisdom picked 2 correctly in 2012. Was off in 2013, picked 4 and they only launched 3.

Looking back it is very interesting to see that the choices were 1-4 (or none of the above) in 2012, 1-5 (or more) in 2013 and this year it was 1-11 (or more).

Does make me want to comment about the imminent 2015 thread but I'll behave.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: CraigLieb on 10/05/2014 12:58 pm
Wildly enthusiastic for: 12
hoping for:10
voted for: 6

Expect Delays Delays Delays Delays Delays... today perfect example.
The cost of a failure is too damaging to SpaceX reputation. They might even grow their business by demonstrating extra care so they don't lose a rocket (and somebody's expensive payload). This becomes particularly true when there are people up there.

On record as voting for 6 as my 2014 total,  so 4 more, please 4 more. NOT counting the pad test(s).
would be pleased if they exceed this.

Really amazing in my July 9 post  I was hoping for 4 more. Now in early October we are already at 6 launches.

Really hoping to be wrong by at least 2 more launches this year, maybe 3.  Nine is a nice number.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: aero on 10/06/2014 12:00 am
Yes, nine is a great number. That's what I voted for.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 10/06/2014 09:25 pm
Forget about nine. SpaceX itself said they will launch at most twice more.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: woods170 on 10/16/2014 09:53 am
From SFN:

Dec 1 - CRS 5
Late Dec - Orbcomm
Jan 13 - DSCOVR
Feb 4 - CES 6

That's an impressive little stretch. Looks like they maybe getting thier legs!

Somewhere in there we should see a barge or land landing.

From SFN:
CRS-5 now at Dec 9 (after EFT-1)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars-J on 10/23/2014 05:47 pm
Forget about nine. SpaceX itself said they will launch at most twice more.

They now seem to think that there will be only one more this year. From the "100th M1D" press release: http://www.spacex.com/news/2014/10/16/spacex-completes-100th-merlin-1d-engine

Quote
"The 100th Merlin 1D is slated to fly on a Falcon 9 in early 2015."

That means only one more flight this year.  (CRS-5)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Kabloona on 10/23/2014 06:14 pm
Looks like the magic number for 2014 will be 7.  Which got the second-highest number of votes here. NSF crystal ball working pretty well.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: The_Ronin on 10/27/2014 04:32 pm
I'm not celebrating what appears to be my correct vote of 7 yet... not until it has already launched.

Bigger question will be 2015 and 2016... That's going to be a tough nut to crack.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 10/27/2014 08:20 pm
I'm not celebrating what appears to be my correct vote of 7 yet... not until it has already launched.

Bigger question will be 2015 and 2016... That's going to be a tough nut to crack.
Well I voted 3 flights last year (I was right), 6 this year (am either right or very close), and probably will vote 12 flights for next year. :) My complete guess at 2016 is 15-20 flights, but we shall see.

SpaceX is going to be really, really busy. They're going to need to streamline the crap out of McGregor to get all these flights through by 2016, especially with Falcon Heavy and all. Nothing that can't be done, of course. But 15-20 flights is basically going to put the Falcon family of rockets as the most-launched rockets in the world. If they do 12 flights next year, it will put them on par with Atlas V as far as flight rate.

Reusing F9 first stages may help a lot, since they can just acceptance fire the whole first stage (and perhaps do that at the launch site) without necessarily doing each engine separately. But it won't be until 2016 or 2017 or so that reuse is good enough to actually save them any time.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: ncb1397 on 10/27/2014 09:29 pm
SpaceX is going to be really, really busy. They're going to need to streamline the crap out of McGregor to get all these flights through by 2016, especially with Falcon Heavy and all. Nothing that can't be done, of course. But 15-20 flights is basically going to put the Falcon family of rockets as the most-launched rockets in the world. If they do 12 flights next year, it will put them on par with Atlas V as far as flight rate.

Falcon already is on par with the Atlas V flight rate. Atlas 5 has launched 7 times this year while Falcon 9 has launched 6. Launching 12 times a year would exceed the Atlas 5 launch rate and be on par with the combined Delta/Atlas flight rate.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 10/28/2014 02:46 am
SpaceX is going to be really, really busy. They're going to need to streamline the crap out of McGregor to get all these flights through by 2016, especially with Falcon Heavy and all. Nothing that can't be done, of course. But 15-20 flights is basically going to put the Falcon family of rockets as the most-launched rockets in the world. If they do 12 flights next year, it will put them on par with Atlas V as far as flight rate.

Falcon already is on par with the Atlas V flight rate. Atlas 5 has launched 7 times this year while Falcon 9 has launched 6. Launching 12 times a year would exceed the Atlas 5 launch rate and be on par with the combined Delta/Atlas flight rate.
Atlas V is slated for 12 launches in 2015. That's what I was basing it off of. Anyway, SpaceX is still going to be kicking butt.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 10/28/2014 02:50 pm
SpaceX is going to be really, really busy. They're going to need to streamline the crap out of McGregor to get all these flights through by 2016, especially with Falcon Heavy and all. Nothing that can't be done, of course. But 15-20 flights is basically going to put the Falcon family of rockets as the most-launched rockets in the world. If they do 12 flights next year, it will put them on par with Atlas V as far as flight rate.

Falcon already is on par with the Atlas V flight rate. Atlas 5 has launched 7 times this year while Falcon 9 has launched 6. Launching 12 times a year would exceed the Atlas 5 launch rate and be on par with the combined Delta/Atlas flight rate.
Atlas V is slated for 12 launches in 2015. That's what I was basing it off of. Anyway, SpaceX is still going to be kicking butt.

Where are you getting this 12 value?

On the ULA site only 4 Atlas V are manifested for first half of 2015.  In order to do 12 they would have to have 8 launches manefested for the second half.  ULA in finacial reports predicts a total lower launch rate in 2015 than in 2014 so again where are you getting this higher launch rate for Alas V in 2015 than what they have done in 2014?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Norm38 on 10/28/2014 03:02 pm
Bigger question will be 2015 and 2016... That's going to be a tough nut to crack.

Maybe, maybe not...
(Elon Musk):  Dozen launches in next 12 months. 80-90 percent likely one of those flights will land and refly. So we're close.

They've demonstrated they can launch one per month on one pad, and that dozen includes Vandenburg.  If they've got the payloads lined up, and it sounds like they do, then they've got a good shot.  Customers will start getting very comfortable as they hit their stride.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 10/29/2014 03:28 pm
Bigger question will be 2015 and 2016... That's going to be a tough nut to crack.

Maybe, maybe not...
(Elon Musk):  Dozen launches in next 12 months. 80-90 percent likely one of those flights will land and refly. So we're close.

They've demonstrated they can launch one per month on one pad, and that dozen includes Vandenburg.  If they've got the payloads lined up, and it sounds like they do, then they've got a good shot.  Customers will start getting very comfortable as they hit their stride.

Remember the March Orbital launch
Remember the 10 launches talked about at that time.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jet Black on 10/29/2014 04:18 pm
I'm not celebrating what appears to be my correct vote of 7 yet... not until it has already launched.

Bigger question will be 2015 and 2016... That's going to be a tough nut to crack.
Well I voted 3 flights last year (I was right), 6 this year (am either right or very close), and probably will vote 12 flights for next year. :) My complete guess at 2016 is 15-20 flights, but we shall see.

SpaceX is going to be really, really busy. They're going to need to streamline the crap out of McGregor to get all these flights through by 2016, especially with Falcon Heavy and all. Nothing that can't be done, of course. But 15-20 flights is basically going to put the Falcon family of rockets as the most-launched rockets in the world. If they do 12 flights next year, it will put them on par with Atlas V as far as flight rate.

Reusing F9 first stages may help a lot, since they can just acceptance fire the whole first stage (and perhaps do that at the launch site) without necessarily doing each engine separately. But it won't be until 2016 or 2017 or so that reuse is good enough to actually save them any time.

I wonder if some of the first falcon 9 relaunches will be internal experimental flights launching refurbished or even new dragons.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Moe Grills on 10/29/2014 04:29 pm
  From 2 per year to 3 per year upto 7 per year. Can you use the word "routine" now?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 11/01/2014 04:31 pm
From 2 per year to 3 per year upto 7 per year. Can you use the word "routine" now?
Not really. Spaceflight will be routine when you will simply not expect going Kerbal as anything having serious chance. Currently every damn launch is nerve-wrecking affair full of scrubs, aborts and sighs of relief when another rocket flies and actually works.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars-J on 11/01/2014 09:54 pm

From 2 per year to 3 per year upto 7 per year. Can you use the word "routine" now?
Not really. Spaceflight will be routine when you will simply not expect going Kerbal as anything having serious chance. Currently every damn launch is nerve-wrecking affair full of scrubs, aborts and sighs of relief when another rocket flies and actually works.

How nervous you are during a launch has ZERO/ZIP/NADA connection to the actual real probability of success. Stop acting like a sports fan who thinks that they have a real impact on their team by watching it on TV.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 11/01/2014 10:07 pm
Kerbal spacecrafts blow up because they are new, untested designs hobbled together. Therefore, the probability of Kerbaling goes down the more flights you get under your belt.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: gospacex on 11/01/2014 11:40 pm
I hope Elon has a plan what to do when, inevitably, one of Falcons fails. I hope SpaceX won't stand down for a dozen months of so.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: QuantumG on 11/01/2014 11:43 pm
I hope Elon has a plan what to do when, inevitably, one of Falcons fails. I hope SpaceX won't stand down for a dozen months of so.

Uhh.. F9R-Dev1 did, and they did stand down for a week or two. If a production vehicle fails, I expect they'll take as much time as they need to find the root cause and correct it.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: macpacheco on 11/01/2014 11:55 pm
I hope Elon has a plan what to do when, inevitably, one of Falcons fails. I hope SpaceX won't stand down for a dozen months of so.
The plan is not to fail. A launch failure is evidence that plan failed.
A significant part of that plan is having at least 9 engines in the first stage, so a single engine failure hopefully is contained, doesn't compromise the launch and keeps all of the more detailed data capture that is done in real time (on the failed engine). There is still a risk of 2nd stage engine failure, but having 9x as many on the first stage helps shift the risk of a failure to the first stage where it can be compensated and better analyzed.
That's where Musk's patience in insisting on having an engine as close to perfectly robust as practical. Remember those criticisms that came from within SpaceX that if Elon didn't insisted on this or that M1D feature F9R could have been flying 2 years earlier, perhaps that wisdom might prevent future failures to begin with.
Ok, I'm rambling. Sorry.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: intrepidpursuit on 11/02/2014 12:01 am
I voted 10 here, so with what looks like 7 flights on the year it was a poor estimate. That being said, my miscalculation was not in SpaceX abilities, but the availability of payloads. Most would admit that if the payloads were available they could have hit 10 launches, or maybe more if the 2 week turnarounds could be repeated. I'm impressed that spacex has gotten to this point. I wonder what will happen in the next 2 years as the payloads start to catch up.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: gospacex on 11/02/2014 12:12 am
I hope Elon has a plan what to do when, inevitably, one of Falcons fails. I hope SpaceX won't stand down for a dozen months of so.
The plan is not to fail.

This would be a bad plan, too arrogant. You should hope for the best, but be ready for the worst.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: macpacheco on 11/02/2014 12:23 am
I hope Elon has a plan what to do when, inevitably, one of Falcons fails. I hope SpaceX won't stand down for a dozen months of so.
The plan is not to fail.

This would be a bad plan, too arrogant. You should hope for the best, but be ready for the worst.
Except there is no hoping. Rockets are way too complex to depend on any hope. And a failed launch causes way too much direct and indirect loss that it must be avoided (even if it costs a lot of money to avoid it). Time will tell. But I believe F9Rs will have a hundred launches without a single primary payload loss.

Antares uses an old engine. It might be economical and might have OK performance, but it doesn't mean that engine has nowhere near the same safety margins of the M1D / M1Dvac. SpaceX took the high road when it decided to design the Merlin engine and took the high road again when it decided to design the M1D and once again when it decided to do the Raptor. So please don't tell me SpaceX is arrogant if (my conjecture is right) that SpaceX doesn't need to worry about launch failures like Orbital. I might be arrogant in my analysis, SpaceX isn't.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars-J on 11/02/2014 03:49 am

I hope Elon has a plan what to do when, inevitably, one of Falcons fails. I hope SpaceX won't stand down for a dozen months of so.

Uhh.. F9R-Dev1 did, and they did stand down for a week or two. If a production vehicle fails, I expect they'll take as much time as they need to find the root cause and correct it.

And don't forget Falcon 1. Three of them did fail. SpaceX has handled failure.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: woods170 on 11/02/2014 10:52 am

I hope Elon has a plan what to do when, inevitably, one of Falcons fails. I hope SpaceX won't stand down for a dozen months of so.

Uhh.. F9R-Dev1 did, and they did stand down for a week or two. If a production vehicle fails, I expect they'll take as much time as they need to find the root cause and correct it.

And don't forget Falcon 1. Three of them did fail. SpaceX has handled failure.
Correct. Every single time they took the time to identify the failure and it's root-causes. They subsequently took time to fix them and fly again. If and when a next failure strikes (heaven forbid) I expect it will be handled in the same manner.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 11/02/2014 08:33 pm
How nervous you are during a launch has ZERO/ZIP/NADA connection to the actual real probability of success.
I guess according to you, no one from launch crew is nervous during launch.

But I believe F9Rs will have a hundred launches without a single primary payload loss.
Your faith is noted. Do you know that SpaceX already had full and partial failures? Your "failure is not option" stance is unrealistic. Failure WILL happen again, sooner or latter.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars-J on 11/03/2014 02:37 am
How nervous you are during a launch has ZERO/ZIP/NADA connection to the actual real probability of success.
I guess according to you, no one from launch crew is nervous during launch.

My point is the confusion (yours?) between the cause and effect of being YOU being nervous for a launch and the probability of a successful launch.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Mader Levap on 11/03/2014 09:53 am
My point is the confusion (yours?) between the cause and effect of being YOU being nervous for a launch and the probability of a successful launch.
I don't even know where you got idea that I think my feelings have any influence on launch. In original post, I was speaking in general terms.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Razvan on 11/03/2014 10:55 am
I expect it will be handled in the same manner.
[/quote]
It may not  "be handled in the same manner", if, for instance, Antares root cause is russian engine.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: woods170 on 11/03/2014 11:18 am
I expect it will be handled in the same manner.
It may not  "be handled in the same manner", if, for instance, Antares root cause is russian engine.
First: fix your quotes. See your original post.
Second: Antares failure had nothing to do with how incidents are handled by SpaceX.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: llanitedave on 11/04/2014 04:06 am
My point is the confusion (yours?) between the cause and effect of being YOU being nervous for a launch and the probability of a successful launch.
I don't even know where you got idea that I think my feelings have any influence on launch. In original post, I was speaking in general terms.

But they do!

Dave Barry's Complete Guide to Guys (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8Kgjid4-u0) provides a very detailed and accurate analysis of the effect of concern rays emanating from the brains of enthusiasts.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: woods170 on 11/04/2014 06:55 am
My point is the confusion (yours?) between the cause and effect of being YOU being nervous for a launch and the probability of a successful launch.
I don't even know where you got idea that I think my feelings have any influence on launch. In original post, I was speaking in general terms.

But they do!

Dave Barry's Complete Guide to Guys (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8Kgjid4-u0) provides a very detailed and accurate analysis of the effect of concern rays emanating from the brains of enthusiasts.


Another coffee-spilled-all-over-the-keyboard moment!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: king1999 on 11/05/2014 05:13 pm
Quote
I expect it will be handled in the same manner.
It may not  "be handled in the same manner", if, for instance, Antares root cause is russian engine.
I think the original author meant that SpaceX would handle any failure in the same manner as they handled the F1 failures, F9 partial failure and Dev-1 failure. Getting to the root cause, fix it and move on.
This is not to compare with how OSC is handling the Antares failure.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 11/05/2014 05:45 pm
How nervous you are during a launch has ZERO/ZIP/NADA connection to the actual real probability of success.
I guess according to you, no one from launch crew is nervous during launch.

But I believe F9Rs will have a hundred launches without a single primary payload loss.
Your faith is noted. Do you know that SpaceX already had full and partial failures? Your "failure is not option" stance is unrealistic. Failure WILL happen again, sooner or latter.

The faith is unfounded and shows a lack of knowledge of the processes involved.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Tass on 12/03/2014 04:03 pm
I guess it is time to start considering the 2015 thread.

I think it would be a good time to start it after CRS-5 has gone up, unless it is badly delayed.

I hope it is not badly delayed, would be nice to hit seven this year, as i voted.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: CraigLieb on 12/03/2014 05:40 pm
I guess it is time to start considering the 2015 thread.

I think it would be a good time to start it after CRS-5 has gone up, unless it is badly delayed.

I hope it is not badly delayed, would be nice to hit seven this year, as i voted.

 I voted for 6, and am hoping you are right too!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: baldusi on 12/03/2014 09:29 pm
I guess it is time to start considering the 2015 thread.

I think it would be a good time to start it after CRS-5 has gone up, unless it is badly delayed.

I hope it is not badly delayed, would be nice to hit seven this year, as i voted.
I concur! 2015 poll could be started right now. Guessing in the 2015 is not that fun.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars-J on 12/03/2014 11:01 pm

I guess it is time to start considering the 2015 thread.

I think it would be a good time to start it after CRS-5 has gone up, unless it is badly delayed.

I hope it is not badly delayed, would be nice to hit seven this year, as i voted.
I concur! 2015 poll could be started right now. Guessing in the 2015 is not that fun.

There is no point to start it until CRS 5 launches.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 12/03/2014 11:33 pm

I concur! 2015 poll could be started right now. Guessing in the 2015 is not that fun.

There is no point to start it until CRS 5 launches.

I am not sure I agree.  Why do you think that? Starting it now makes handicapping harder but that's a feature, not a bug :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: tigerade on 12/03/2014 11:52 pm
Hey guys,

I don't intend to make another thread personally, but if someone wants to take the torch on and move forward with a 2015 thread, that's perfectly fine with me.  It has become apparent to me that rockets launch when they launch and much discussion about it is really moot, so this is not a topic of interest to me anymore.  I am still here at NSF, I read almost every day, just don't post as much.  :) 

Cheers,
Tiger
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 12/04/2014 12:56 am
I'm willing to do it. Since the last two years started around 2/3 of the way through december (12/20 and 12/23) that's my thinking for when it would start, with closure about the same time (about january 15, give or take)

PM me with flames if necessary...

and, tigerade, thanks muchly for doing the last two years.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars-J on 12/04/2014 04:23 am


I concur! 2015 poll could be started right now. Guessing in the 2015 is not that fun.

There is no point to start it until CRS 5 launches.

I am not sure I agree.  Why do you think that? Starting it now makes handicapping harder but that's a feature, not a bug :)

It should be rather obvious, since we don't know yet if CRS-5 will launch in 2014 or 2015. But hey, do whatever you want. Why not start it in November or October, to enhance your "feature"?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AncientU on 12/04/2014 02:38 pm


I concur! 2015 poll could be started right now. Guessing in the 2015 is not that fun.

There is no point to start it until CRS 5 launches.

I am not sure I agree.  Why do you think that? Starting it now makes handicapping harder but that's a feature, not a bug :)

It should be rather obvious, since we don't know yet if CRS-5 will launch in 2014 or 2015. But hey, do whatever you want. Why not start it in November or October, to enhance your "feature"?

...because they're in the past?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: tigerade on 12/05/2014 01:17 am
I'm willing to do it. Since the last two years started around 2/3 of the way through december (12/20 and 12/23) that's my thinking for when it would start, with closure about the same time (about january 15, give or take)

PM me with flames if necessary...

and, tigerade, thanks muchly for doing the last two years.

Go for it.  And thanks.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Comga on 12/05/2014 01:37 am
I'm willing to do it. Since the last two years started around 2/3 of the way through december (12/20 and 12/23) that's my thinking for when it would start, with closure about the same time (about january 15, give or take)

PM me with flames if necessary...

and, tigerade, thanks muchly for doing the last two years.

My suggestion is to have the voting in terms of pairs. ( 0 or 1, 2 or 3, 4 or 5, etc.) especially since the manifest can be read as including up to twenty launches in 2015.

And I concurr with the heartfelt thanks to tigerade!  It's been fun.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: macpacheco on 12/05/2014 04:43 am
I'm willing to do it. Since the last two years started around 2/3 of the way through december (12/20 and 12/23) that's my thinking for when it would start, with closure about the same time (about january 15, give or take)

PM me with flames if necessary...

and, tigerade, thanks muchly for doing the last two years.

My suggestion is to have the voting in terms of pairs. ( 0 or 1, 2 or 3, 4 or 5, etc.) especially since the manifest can be read as including up to twenty launches in 2015.

And I concurr with the heartfelt thanks to tigerade!  It's been fun.
I'd rather have unitary voting, but consider the vote a -1...+1 range.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: sdsds on 12/05/2014 04:58 am
For the 2015 poll I propose the following 8 options:
0 or 1
2 or 3
4, 5, or 6
7, 8, or 9
10, 11, 12, or 13
14, 15, 16, or 17
18, 19, 20, 21, or 22
23 or more
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: deruch on 12/05/2014 05:36 am
For the 2015 poll I propose the following 8 options:
0 or 1
2 or 3
4, 5, or 6
7, 8, or 9
10, 11, 12, or 13
14, 15, 16, or 17
18, 19, 20, 21, or 22
23 or more

Why are we losing specificity right in the heart of the area most likely to be voted?  In 2014, SpaceX will have managed 7 launches (assuming CRS-5 success) even when allowing for the moderate delay of OG2 (Helium sucks!).  They also demonstrated improved capabilities with 22- and 14-day pad turnarounds.  A vote for less than 6 is essentially saying that there will have been a pretty major problem next year.  Whether that vote is 4 or 1 doesn't really make any difference.  As well as their improved cadence, SpaceX has publicly stated that they have significantly improved their production capabilities.  Given all the above, something between this year's 7 and 15 (the annual doubling they've been trending) is likely to be the most popular vote range.  This should therefore be the area with the most choices:

0-6
7-9
10 or 11
12 or 13
14 or 15
15-18
19+

Alternatively, just give single digit choices between 1 and 20.  The more granularity the better.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: vigleik on 12/05/2014 06:02 am
I thought we can have up to 12 options, why limit ourselves to 7 or 8? I suggest 0-4, 5, 6, ... , 14, 15+.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: NaN on 12/05/2014 06:25 am
I suggest we have a poll to decide which options we will have for the poll. It's the only way to be sure.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: GORDAP on 12/05/2014 12:00 pm
Hmm, should the poll be in terms of cores launched?  So a successful FH flight would count as 3?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: CraigLieb on 12/05/2014 02:41 pm
Suggest grouping the bottom choices together: 
<8 (this year's performance at a minimum)
8-10
11-12
13-15
15-16
17-19
20+

Successful launch = launches that deliver vehicles/deliveries that complete at least one orbit, not cores.
which also precludes D2 launch abort.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: hrissan on 12/05/2014 03:58 pm
Suggest grouping the bottom choices together: 
<8 (this year's performance at a minimum)
8-10
11-12
13-15
15-16
17-19
20+

Successful launch = launches that deliver vehicles/deliveries that complete at least one orbit, not cores.
which also precludes D2 launch abort.
I suggest slight improvement to this: use maximum precision the voting system allows.
If 12 options are possible, they may probably be:
<8
8-10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19-21
>21
This has some bias (the options are symmetric around "expected" average)... But we trade bias against precision, so looks good for me.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 12/05/2014 04:31 pm
I suggest that the first option of the poll bye "Less than [Number of flights in 2014]" and then increase to 2 x number of flights in 2014 and then go to a "More than..." option.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: llanitedave on 12/05/2014 05:08 pm
As long as there's leeway in the numbers, why use them at all?

Options:

None
One
A couple
A few
Some
A fair number
A lot
A whole bunch of them
Infinity!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: fatjohn1408 on 12/05/2014 05:27 pm
Suggest grouping the bottom choices together: 
<8 (this year's performance at a minimum)
8-10
11-12
13-15
15-16
17-19
20+

Successful launch = launches that deliver vehicles/deliveries that complete at least one orbit, not cores.
which also precludes D2 launch abort.
I suggest slight improvement to this: use maximum precision the voting system allows.
If 12 options are possible, they may probably be:
<8
8-10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19-21
>21
This has some bias (the options are symmetric around "expected" average)... But we trade bias against precision, so looks good for me.

I think you need a bit more wiggle room for those expecting or betting on a failure.
A failure could be disastrous creating a delay from over a month to perhaps most of the year.
Therefore I propose the following options:

6 or less
7-8
8-9
10
11
12
13
14
15-16
17-18
19 or more
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: nadreck on 12/05/2014 06:31 pm
I suggest 5 separate polls:

How many F9 and F9R flights in 2015

How many FH flights in 2015

How many recovered cores in 2015 (nothing that does not stand upright for at least 60 seconds after landing counts as recovered)

How many reflown cores in 2015

How many D2's flown (suborbital or orbital) in 2015
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: CraigLieb on 12/05/2014 08:22 pm
I suggest 5 separate polls:

How many F9 and F9R flights in 2015

How many FH flights in 2015

How many recovered cores in 2015 (nothing that does not stand upright for at least 60 seconds after landing counts as recovered)

How many reflown cores in 2015

How many D2's flown (suborbital or orbital) in 2015
In a bid to increase recursion , how about we guess how many polls will be in 2015?  or should we poll about that question?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: skybum on 12/06/2014 02:09 pm
Personally I think it's kind of nuts to suggest polling for 15-20+ flights next year. SpaceX simply doesn't have the pads, range access, or flight-ready payloads to support that kind of flight rate. Those problems don't solve themselves overnight. Furthermore, they'll be focusing on getting the F9H and F9R flying, and while the F9R especially will eventually allow for a much higher flight rates, that won't be the case during its shakedown flights. They'll handle these initial F9R and F9H flights at a very deliberate pace, which may not necessarily be faster than 2014.

With that in mind, and with 12 options available, I'd suggest:

* 0-5 flights (eg., something definitely goes wrong)
* 6 flights
* 7 flights
* 8 flights
* 9 flights
* 10 flights
* 11 flights
* 12 flights
* 13 flights
* 14 flights
* 15 flights
* 16+ flights

This gives high resolution around the area where most people are likely to vote. And if SpaceX does manage to increase their flight rate by >125% next year, then at allows those optimists who voted for 16+ to collectively thumb their noses at the rest of us.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/06/2014 02:21 pm
Is there any way to get more poll options? It'd be nice to get a smooth distribution to play around with for statistical analysis. I don't like truncating the tails of the distribution too short just because "most" people aren't going to vote for them.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: kch on 12/06/2014 02:44 pm
As long as there's leeway in the numbers, why use them at all?

Options:

None
One
A couple
A few
Some
A fair number
A lot
A whole bunch of them
Infinity!

... and let's not forget the Buzz Lightyear option:

Beyond!!

;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: tinorex on 12/06/2014 02:45 pm
* - 1
* - 2
* - 4
* - 8
* - 16

and more than one option allowed.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: kch on 12/06/2014 02:47 pm
I suggest 5 separate polls:

How many F9 and F9R flights in 2015

How many FH flights in 2015

How many recovered cores in 2015 (nothing that does not stand upright for at least 60 seconds after landing counts as recovered)

How many reflown cores in 2015

How many D2's flown (suborbital or orbital) in 2015
In a bid to increase recursion , how about we guess how many polls will be in 2015?  or should we poll about that question?

"I never metapoll I didn't like ..." -- Will Rogers' cousin Buck ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: RotoSequence on 12/06/2014 02:55 pm
For what it's worth, the pessimist in me says "The difference between 2013 and 2014, plus the number launched in 2014." So, 9 to 11.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 12/06/2014 03:31 pm
From the OP:

Current 2014 SpaceX Flights Scheduled (According to Salo's Thread)
     
NET January - Thaicom 6 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
February 22 - Dragon SpX-3 (CRS3), Hermes 2, LMRSat, TechCube 1, All-Star (THEIA) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET March - Orbcomm G2 (x8) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
April - AsiaSat 8 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
May - AsiaSat 6 (Thaicom 7) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
June 6 - Dragon SpX-4 (CRS4) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET 2nd quarter - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Vandenberg SLC-4E
September 12 - Dragon SpX-5 (CRS5) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
December 5 - Dragon SpX-6 (CRS6) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
December - Turkmensat - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or Ariane 5 ECA)
NET December - Orbcomm G2 (x9) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
TBD - Space Systems/Loral payload - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40

This says POTENTIAL 12 flights for 2014; and it looks like there MIGHT be 7.
I don't know what the potential is for 2015, but whatever it is, a bit better than
50% seems to be the middle mark to aim for. ie if 16, then go with 9-10 as the
middle...
   or has that muddled up the waters for the statisticians in here ;-)
of which I am NOT one of!!

Gramps
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: friendly3 on 12/06/2014 04:43 pm
From your list they didn't launch the 2nd Orbcomm G2, Turkmensat and Space Systems/Loral payloads because they are NOT available, not because they were unable to. And they moved Falcon Heavy to Pad 39A.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 12/06/2014 04:58 pm
From your list they didn't launch the 2nd Orbcomm G2, Turkmensat and Space Systems/Loral payloads because they are NOT available, not because they were unable to. And they moved Falcon Heavy to Pad 39A.

That's the point of my post (didn't make it clear that it wasn't MY list; corrected  ;) ) that things happen, whether internal or external. And for 2014 that meant 5, possibly 6 flights, don't make it. 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: friendly3 on 12/06/2014 05:06 pm
Well, that means the customers (at least some of them) didn't think SpaceX would be ready to launch their payloads, I don't think that will be anymore the case in the future.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: francesco nicoli on 12/08/2014 05:13 pm
If I recall well, we are at 7 SpaceX flights now with a nr 8 coming soon, right?

it looks like Nsf collective intelligence work decently, after all! :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Proponent on 12/08/2014 07:39 pm
Is there any way to get more poll options? It'd be nice to get a smooth distribution to play around with for statistical analysis. I don't like truncating the tails of the distribution too short just because "most" people aren't going to vote for them.

How about a poll in which each response is a distribution of likelihoods.  Each participant would indicate the likelihood he assigns to various numbers of launches.  This would be done in a format that would make scoring easy (though not automatic: someone would have to tabulate the results).  Just as an example, suppose I think there's 10% of 6 flights, 25% for each of 7-9, 15% for 10 and 5% for 11.  Then my entry might be

Quote
Proponent: 6 10 25 25 25 15 5

<Optional rationale for my likelihood distribution>

The first field is my screen name, terminated by a colon so as to gracefully cope with multi-word screen names.  The second field is the minimum number of flights (6) to which I assign a non-zero likelihood, and the remaining numbers are my likelihoods for 6, 7, 8, etc. flights.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: e of pi on 12/08/2014 07:52 pm
If I recall well, we are at 7 SpaceX flights now with a nr 8 coming soon, right?

it looks like Nsf collective intelligence work decently, after all! :)
Six with #7 coming.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Kaputnik on 12/17/2014 09:43 pm
People muttering about January launch for CRS 5, which leaves us at 6 for the year. It might be short of what we were hoping for, but it's better than six and a failure, for sure.

(And it's still one more than I predicted...)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 12/17/2014 11:35 pm
People muttering about January launch for CRS 5, which leaves us at 6 for the year. It might be short of what we were hoping for, but it's better than six and a failure, for sure.

(And it's still one more than I predicted...)
It is bang on what I "guessed"at last winter.. I would have been happy to be proved wrong, with 7, or even 9.. but it doesn't seem to be in the cards...
 Last year this time, if you remember, Obcomm was delayed until early into 2014... so a bit of de je vue (sp) (to lazy or drunk to look it up)
 I don't look at it as a failure, but as a step in the right direction. being careful to not step on the cow paddies and slip further... (bit of ancient experience speaking there) Well done SpaceX to reach 6 firm successful launches this year... it has been a difficult year, but you did it... never to be ashamed or disappointed in your accomplishments... we are proud of you and still have your back... Merry Christmas and may next year be your best ever!!!

Cheers
    Gramps 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: R.Simko on 12/17/2014 11:50 pm
OMG, no delay. I was betting on 7.   :o
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 12/17/2014 11:51 pm
Jeff Foust quotes Shotwell as maintaining 9 more launches scheduled for this year, despite CRS-3 delay. Thats exactly one a month from here on out. Also quotes 15-17 for next year, quite a ramp up.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/451035641644478465

I've said it before several times.  SpaceX's problem is over-promising, not under-delivering.  Looks like they'll have 6 flights this year (which also means I got it right two years in a row unless they squeeze CRS-4 in), which is quite respectable since they had 3 last year and had all the other successes on other fronts related to reusability this year.  But they can't seem to stop saying they're going to do way more than they actually end up doing.

They did 5 more after the above tweet, not 9.  Several members responded even right at the time of the tweet that there was no way they'd accomplish those 9.  And they were right.

So, SpaceX, congratulations on a really great year!  And shame on you for continually overly-optimistic predictions.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 12/18/2014 12:11 am
No shame in being optimistic, other than disappointing people who hope or believe in the omnipotence of Mr Musk... SpaceX done good, in difficult circumstances... whether it is their fault or the fault of others, they still doubled their launches over the previous year, and for that I am more than willing to give them a round of applause... let's be kind and generous in our attitude to others, especially at this time of year... January 1st is a new slate, and a new series of launch manifest... so for all the launch providers that have launches this coming year, where ever you may be, may your stars be in the ascendant and may your failures be few..
  Gramps...

damn spell check ;O spelling mistake
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: WHAP on 12/18/2014 12:44 am
I think I'm 3 for 3 (years) on predictions.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: mme on 12/18/2014 12:55 am
I think I'm 3 for 3 (years) on predictions.
Awesome.  Please stop being such a pessimist!  ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Rocket Science on 12/18/2014 12:55 am
Remember we all got a "free bee" with a carry-over from last year according to tigerade.... ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: WHAP on 12/18/2014 05:49 am
I think I'm 3 for 3 (years) on predictions.
Awesome.  Please stop being such a pessimist!  ;)

The number of launches per year isn't dependent on my guesses... ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: woods170 on 12/18/2014 06:01 am

I've said it before several times.  SpaceX's problem is over-promising

That's a fact. Seriously; both Elon and Gwynne could do with a healthy reality check.

And with CRS-5 now firmly heading into January (per Chris' latest article) the tally for 2014 stands at six. Exactly what I predicted.

Now, where is that 2015 prediction thread? :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: savuporo on 12/18/2014 07:28 am
That's a fact. Seriously; both Elon and Gwynne could do with a healthy reality check.
That would be boring. I want to hear their back to back predictions on which year is that  they plan to break the world launch rate record.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: JamesH on 12/18/2014 08:24 am

I've said it before several times.  SpaceX's problem is over-promising

That's a fact. Seriously; both Elon and Gwynne could do with a healthy reality check.

Is it? Do they?  Are they actually over-PROMISING? Or are they saying 'we hope to' rather than promising. Not sure I ever heard either of them say "We promise to.." instead of "We plan to..." or "We want to..." or "We hope to...". There is a very clear difference.

Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: pagheca on 12/18/2014 08:38 am
Is it? Do they?  Are they actually over-PROMISING? Or are they saying 'we hope to' rather than promising. Not sure I ever heard either of them say "We promise to.." instead of "We plan to..." or "We want to..." or "We hope to...". There is a very clear difference.

I share this. I think the problem is in the public, not in SpaceX or EM. I understood that Elon Musk is surrounded by a gigantic "Halo Effect". Paradoxically, this is - for those don't know about it - the natural tendency to assume that if someone is good at something, is good at everything. It is this well known cognitive bias the reason for the confusion you correctly pointed out.

IMHO the worst negative effect of this bias is this frenzy about the Mars colony that is hiding other possible and much more realistics (relatively...) scopes, including the development of Moon exploration long term plans.

On the other side, may be that at some time in the future, when people will wake up and will actually see that passing from the ISS to a Mars colonization is something ridiculously difficult, the technology developed so far will be diverted toward something at least more likely to happen.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 12/18/2014 09:39 am
Welp! I voted six and I got it right. The thing is that I'm genuinely surprised that I got it right, given the high launch cadence they hinted that they were able to do at about mid-year. It just shows: All it takes is for a few unanticipated events (a competitor's launch failure and a few late payloads) and your plans are shot into mincemeat!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: luinil on 12/18/2014 09:45 am
I'd wait to have an official NET before calling this one done. Until it is not official it might be still in flux.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 12/18/2014 12:20 pm
I'd wait to have an official NET before calling this one done. Until it is not official it might be still in flux.

It's NET 1/6/15 now.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 12/18/2014 12:43 pm

I've said it before several times.  SpaceX's problem is over-promising


Now, where is that 2015 prediction thread? :)

yep, time for it 8)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/18/2014 01:38 pm
Welp! I voted six and I got it right. The thing is that I'm genuinely surprised that I got it right, given the high launch cadence they hinted that they were able to do at about mid-year. It just shows: All it takes is for a few unanticipated events (a competitor's launch failure and a few late payloads) and your plans are shot into mincemeat!
These unknown events are still kind of predictable en masse, though. Problems WILL happen, statistically, so slips will happen. I also voted 6 and got it right (again). :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 12/18/2014 01:52 pm
If I'm reading Salo's thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1301960#msg1301960) right (and I may not be), SpaceX is planning 17 launches for 2015?

1.   CRS-5
2.   DISCOVR
3.   CRS-6
4.   Jason 3
5.   Orbcomm G2
6.   CRS-7
7.   SES-9
8.   FH demo flight
9.   AMOS 6
10.   CRS-8
11.   SAOCOM-1A
12.   JCSat-14
13.   Eutelsat 117
14.   Iridium Next 1
15.   Iridium Next 2
16.   CRS-9
17.   FORMOSAT 5

Did I get that right?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Rocket Science on 12/18/2014 02:27 pm
If I'm reading Salo's thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1301960#msg1301960) right (and I may not be), SpaceX is planning 17 launches for 2015?

1.   CRS-5
2.   DISCOVR
3.   CRS-6
4.   Jason 3
5.   Orbcomm G2
6.   CRS-7
7.   SES-9
8.   FH demo flight
9.   AMOS 6
10.   CRS-8
11.   SAOCOM-1A
12.   JCSat-14
13.   Eutelsat 117
14.   Iridium Next 1
15.   Iridium Next 2
16.   CRS-9
17.   FORMOSAT 5

Did I get that right?
Pass the Kool-Aid...err eggnog... In keeping with the season... ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 12/18/2014 02:28 pm
If I'm reading Salo's thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1301960#msg1301960) right (and I may not be), SpaceX is planning 17 launches for 2015?

1.   CRS-5
2.   DISCOVR
3.   CRS-6
4.   Jason 3
5.   Orbcomm G2
6.   CRS-7
7.   SES-9
8.   FH demo flight
9.   AMOS 6
10.   CRS-8
11.   SAOCOM-1A
12.   JCSat-14
13.   Eutelsat 117
14.   Iridium Next 1
15.   Iridium Next 2
16.   CRS-9
17.   FORMOSAT 5

Did I get that right?

It's worth noting that at least one of those launches will be from LC-39A and at least three from SLC-4E. It's also possible that, after LC-39A is on-line, all CRS and CCT flights will move there.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 12/18/2014 02:50 pm
But did anyone check my list against Salo's list or other sources?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: The Amazing Catstronaut on 12/18/2014 02:53 pm
Is it? Do they?  Are they actually over-PROMISING? Or are they saying 'we hope to' rather than promising. Not sure I ever heard either of them say "We promise to.." instead of "We plan to..." or "We want to..." or "We hope to...". There is a very clear difference.


On the other side, may be that at some time in the future, when people will wake up and will actually see that passing from the ISS to a Mars colonization is something ridiculously difficult, the technology developed so far will be diverted toward something at least more likely to happen.

I haven't been on this rock for as long as you, Pagheca. I am certainly not as academic as you are. However, I believe with conviction we (collectively) shouldn't yell "balderdash" until, well, innocent until proven guilty, and all that. Just because something is extremely unlikely doesn't make it unworthy of pursuing - far from it.

Besides, with the whole postponement, it increases the likelihood of primary (and - yeeeek - secondary) mission success if the rocket is actually functional. Not launching an anomalously functioning rocket isn't something we should consider a loss, but rather a gain. The reasons behind that strain of thinking should be particularly explicit.

Plus, as someone mentioned previously - that's another one to add to the 2015 flight tally. ;3


Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: kch on 12/18/2014 03:26 pm
39 is not activated yet.
And you have left out the most important resource - employees. I don't believe they have enough qualified/
experienced personnel yet to work that many campaigns - that is their Alleles Heel.

Didn't know alleles *had* heels:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allele (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allele)

Now this guy, on the other hand (or foot) ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Achilles (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Achilles)

;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: woods170 on 12/18/2014 04:46 pm
Welp! I voted six and I got it right. The thing is that I'm genuinely surprised that I got it right, given the high launch cadence they hinted that they were able to do at about mid-year. It just shows: All it takes is for a few unanticipated events (a competitor's launch failure and a few late payloads) and your plans are shot into mincemeat!
These unknown events are still kind of predictable en masse, though. Problems WILL happen, statistically, so slips will happen. I also voted 6 and got it right (again). :)

Exactly. When doing my prediction I very much counted on SpaceX (and their primary customer NASA) running in some sort of trouble that would botch a good number of launch opportunities. That has happened in the past and it will continue to happen in the future. Makes for a great help in predicting the number of launches. Factor in a statistically defined chance of a launch going south (and the resulting effects - even when it is someone else's launch) and the number drops further.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: woods170 on 12/18/2014 04:47 pm
If I'm reading Salo's thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1301960#msg1301960) right (and I may not be), SpaceX is planning 17 launches for 2015?

1.   CRS-5
2.   DISCOVR
3.   CRS-6
4.   Jason 3
5.   Orbcomm G2
6.   CRS-7
7.   SES-9
8.   FH demo flight
9.   AMOS 6
10.   CRS-8
11.   SAOCOM-1A
12.   JCSat-14
13.   Eutelsat 117
14.   Iridium Next 1
15.   Iridium Next 2
16.   CRS-9
17.   FORMOSAT 5

Did I get that right?

It's worth noting that at least one of those launches will be from LC-39A and at least three from SLC-4E. It's also possible that, after LC-39A is on-line, all CRS and CCT flights will move there.
My prediction for 2015: nothing will be launching from LC-39A, to orbit, in 2015. It will be 2016 at the earliest. SpaceX will run into some nasty surprises with regards to LC-39A.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: CraigLieb on 12/18/2014 05:01 pm
Wildly enthusiastic for: 12
hoping for:10
voted for: 6

Expect Delays Delays Delays Delays Delays... today perfect example.
The cost of a failure is too damaging to SpaceX reputation. They might even grow their business by demonstrating extra care so they don't lose a rocket (and somebody's expensive payload). This becomes particularly true when there are people up there.

Is there a way to publish the screen names of the correct guessers?
I actually hate the fact I got it right. Would have preferred to have guessed way too low.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 12/18/2014 05:47 pm
Is there a way to publish the screen names of the correct guessers?
I actually hate the fact I got it right. Would have preferred to have guessed way too low.

Polls do not, as far as I know, expose any way to tell who actually voted for what. Also, I think it might be a privacy violation to do this without having giving prior warning at the start of the poll that your guess was going to be made public.

HOWEVER, someone could wade through the pages and pages of posts and collate who said they voted what. A fair few folk did say what their vote was. And I see no reason to vote one way but say you voted another. (OK, maybe there is, and I don't think we want to hear what it is :)  )
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: abaddon on 12/18/2014 06:07 pm
I voted eight, but I am pretty satisfied with six.  Very happy that all flights were successful and so far the v1.1 has an unblemished record.  A little disappointed with where SpaceX appears to be with Dragon V2 (hoping for pad abort by now), and FH (hoping for test stand firing by now).  OTOH I'm blown away how quickly they have progressed on RTLS and the barge was quite a surprise as well, so I guess it balances out.

Hoping we get news of AF certification and NROL contract win before we tie off the year.

Here's to a great 2015 for SpaceX!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Tass on 12/18/2014 06:56 pm
Are you going to start the new thread, Lar? With CRS-5 NET after new year, I think it is time.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Jim on 12/18/2014 07:05 pm
Is there a way to publish the screen names of the correct guessers?
I actually hate the fact I got it right. Would have preferred to have guessed way too low.

I got it right
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: MTom on 12/18/2014 07:18 pm
Is there a way to publish the screen names of the correct guessers?
I actually hate the fact I got it right. Would have preferred to have guessed way too low.

I got it right

You forgot write behind: "as usual"   ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: kch on 12/18/2014 07:43 pm
Is there a way to publish the screen names of the correct guessers?
I actually hate the fact I got it right. Would have preferred to have guessed way too low.

I got it right

We can't all be perfick!  Mine's attached below; as you can see, I was *way* off.  Oh, well -- as the wire choir are fond of saying, "better sharp than out-of-tune" ...  ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lars-J on 12/18/2014 07:51 pm
I was one off... Voted 7. So close!  ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: oiorionsbelt on 12/18/2014 08:13 pm
Really who cares? 4 flights or 12 flights this is, by far, the most exciting company in spaceflight today.
 Those who voted for 12 may only be off by one......year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: DJPledger on 12/18/2014 08:27 pm
I correctly predicted six launches this year and also accurately predicted that SpaceX would have teething troubles with F9 v1.1 e.g. helium issues.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: kch on 12/18/2014 08:33 pm
Really who cares? 4 flights or 12 flights this is, by far, the most exciting company in spaceflight today.
 Those who voted for 12 may only be off by one......year.

That's what I'm hoping for!   :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Barrie on 12/18/2014 08:40 pm
I incorrectly voted for 8 launches.  However, 8 is the number of items of SpaceX merchandise I now have.  In the field of parapsychology, that would be considered a hit.

Hopefully, next year they will crack the problem of rapid usability, and then move on to rapid reusability.  ::)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Prober on 12/18/2014 08:51 pm
Is there a way to publish the screen names of the correct guessers?
I actually hate the fact I got it right. Would have preferred to have guessed way too low.

I got it right

congrats Jim ;)

funny didn't think you would bother to vote :-X
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Rocket Science on 12/18/2014 08:59 pm
This is my simple SpaceX number launches equation estimator...

Lsx=2(X)-1

Where X is equal to number of launches in the previous year.

Minus one scrub over Christmas/New Year.... ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: tegla on 12/18/2014 09:36 pm
This is my simple SpaceX number launches equation estimator...

Lsx=2(X)-1

Where X is equal to number of launches in the previous year.

So you're saying by 2040 they'll be launching a rocket every second?  :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: QuantumG on 12/18/2014 10:02 pm
Can the usual folks create the new poll now?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: go4mars on 12/18/2014 10:13 pm
I guessed right again too.  And I'm guessing 12 for next year. 
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Rocket Science on 12/18/2014 10:16 pm
This is my simple SpaceX number launches equation estimator...

Lsx=2(X)-1

Where X is equal to number of launches in the previous year.

So you're saying by 2040 they'll be launching a rocket every second?  :)
Elon would probably answer you with that smirk... "One must at least try"... ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: tigerade on 12/18/2014 10:42 pm
Can the usual folks create the new poll now?

That'll be Lar's task now.  I have passed the torch on to him.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Rocket Science on 12/18/2014 10:49 pm
Can the usual folks create the new poll now?

That'll be Lar's task now.  I have passed the torch on to him.
Thanks for the great work... It's been fun to follow!! :)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: skybum on 12/18/2014 11:01 pm
This is my simple SpaceX number launches equation estimator...

Lsx=2(X)-1

Where X is equal to number of launches in the previous year.

My estimator is even simpler: CEIL( 1.5x ). That's why I predicted 6 for this year, and why I'm predicting 9 for next year. And 14 for 2016, 21 for 2017, etc.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: savuporo on 12/18/2014 11:21 pm
My estimator is even simpler: CEIL( 1.5x ). That's why I predicted 6 for this year, and why I'm predicting 9 for next year. And 14 for 2016, 21 for 2017, etc.
That would put them past Chinese either 2017 or 18 and break the standing world record by 2020. They tied to Ariane this year.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: subzero788 on 12/18/2014 11:34 pm
I think I'm 3 for 3 (years) on predictions.

Me too. That's what one gets for being a pessimist I guess...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 12/18/2014 11:56 pm
This is my simple SpaceX number launches equation estimator...

Lsx=2(X)-1

Where X is equal to number of launches in the previous year.

My estimator is even simpler: CEIL( 1.5x ).

I'll go with 0.5*(SpaceX plans).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: HMXHMX on 12/19/2014 12:30 am
I estimated six.  Sorry to be right.  :(
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: darkenfast on 12/19/2014 02:41 am
Same here. I was sure I was going to be one off.  Waaah!  I don't wanna be right!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/19/2014 03:01 am
I'm not surprised of the last minute slip. Same thing happened last year, a launch slipped past the New Year, making my bet right on the money.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Pete on 12/19/2014 03:40 am
I voted 7, and I would have had it right if it wasn't for those pesky kids and their darn dog!

erm, i mean, if it wasn't for that pesky static fire and some mysterious problem that no-one will talk about.
Title: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: averagespacejoe on 12/19/2014 04:56 am
I voted six maybe seven which seems like a cop out now because it could have gone either way. I honestly thought doubling the launch rate was a great victory. I will carry this prediction over into the appropriate thread when it is created but I think 2015 will bring us 10 launches. They are not quite ready for one a month all year long. Starting the first week of January helps but delays will occur just hopefully a little less.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: AJW on 12/19/2014 05:33 am
I spotted 8 other polls this year.  It may be time to dust them off as well and start picking nits over the finer details.  A few items like EELV cert should still be open until EOY.  Perhaps a new thread '2014 Poll results' should be started with the first post containing a link to each of the polls.  Having a matrix of all of the poll results would allow users to keep their own scorecard.

Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments – DRAGON
POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 FIRST STAGE
POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - GRASSHOPPER
POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments – MISCELLANEOUS
Deployment of landing legs for Falcon 9 v1.1 first stage (including poll)
POLL: What will the eventual fate of the CRS-3 first stage be?
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: kch on 12/19/2014 05:34 am
This is my simple SpaceX number launches equation estimator...

Lsx=2(X)-1

Where X is equal to number of launches in the previous year.

So you're saying by 2040 they'll be launching a rocket every second?  :)

There's a Danger Mouse flashback -- "foop WHEE foop WHEE foop WHEE" ...  ;D
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: kch on 12/19/2014 05:49 am
I voted six maybe seven which seems like a cop out now because it could have gone either way.

I don't see that option in the poll results ... was it there when you voted?  If you're having trouble remembering, the one you selected will appear in bold (mine shows I voted for 12  :-[  ;) ).  Hope this helps!
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: averagespacejoe on 12/19/2014 05:51 am
I think I didn't actually take the poll just wrote it a long time ago when this thread started I am not sure where to find the polls actually on here
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: averagespacejoe on 12/19/2014 05:53 am

I am going to vote for 6 they might push 7 and that would be great but I would happy with them doubling their annual launch rate.


I was the 23rd post of this thread and I guess I voted 6 so I was right unfortunately.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: kch on 12/19/2014 05:57 am

I am going to vote for 6 they might push 7 and that would be great but I would happy with them doubling their annual launch rate.


I was the 23rd post of this thread and I guess I voted 6 so I was right unfortunately.

Glad you found it!  Condolences on being right (it happens) ... ;)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: hop on 12/19/2014 07:31 am
Predicted 7 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571.msg1136433#msg1136433)... and predicted one of those would be Spx 5 :-[

Should have stuck with my secret formula (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571.msg1137029#msg1137029).
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: pagheca on 12/19/2014 08:52 am
Quite obviously an insider that voted 6 sabotaged next flight to get it right...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Avron on 12/19/2014 12:50 pm
7 and so close..  Lsx=2(X)-1 would be awesome, but the number of potential flight for next year does not allow for that - need more flights on books
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Proponent on 12/19/2014 01:13 pm
Is there any way to get more poll options? It'd be nice to get a smooth distribution to play around with for statistical analysis. I don't like truncating the tails of the distribution too short just because "most" people aren't going to vote for them.

How about a poll in which each response is a distribution of likelihoods....

I've just created such a poll (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36374.new#new).  We'll see how it goes.

Another option that might elicit some information is a futures contract on the number of SpaceX launches.  The only platform for this kind of thing that I'm vaguely familiar with is the Foresight Exhange (http://www.foresightexchange.com/fx/docs/FXdocs.cgi).  As far as I know, though, non-binary contracts pay off at an amount between zero and one, whereas what we would want is a contract that pays off at the number of flights in 2015.  I suppose one could create a contract that paid off at 1/100 of the number of flights.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: skybum on 12/19/2014 01:17 pm
So many people are saying they're disappointed with 6 flights. Frankly, I think that 50% year-on-year growth in the launch rate is something to celebrate.

I think the problem is that many people expect all commercial business to work like software or consumer products, where scaling issues can be readily addressed by the fact that such businesses are based upon either intangible or routine, commodity-level components, logistics, etc. But SpaceX's business is entirely reliant upon non-commodity manufacturing, operations, and logistics. Those things simply CAN'T scale at multiple hundreds of percent per year. 50% per year is really damned impressive, in fact.

"But SpaceX sets our expectations too high," you say, "by announcing much higher flight rates and then not delivering them!"

Well, yes, but they pretty much have to do this. In a perfect world, they'll never launch MORE flights in a year than they intend. They're not a national space agency, which can afford to keep spare rockets and staff laying around, on the off chance that they might be able to use them. Rather, SpaceX is a commercial venture, which must keep its production and payroll costs as low as possible. So if they think there's a chance they might be able to do 12 launches in a year, they'll scale up to do 12 launches -- and then when Stuff Happens, they'll very likely do fewer than 12. But if SpaceX were to be more realistic and say that they were aiming for six, then the business planning would ensure that they would be ABSOLUTELY unable to do seven launches -- and then when Stuff Happens, they'd very likely do fewer than 6. Which would be really unfortunate, because if your reach isn't exceeding your grasp a a bit, then you''re not trying hard enough.

This is why the numbers which spaceX gives are always and necessarily an upper bound, not an average estimate. In 2015, I fully expect that they'll fly fewer flights than are on their manifest -- but if they maintain a 50% growth rate and get 9 rockets off the  ground, then I'll be thrilled.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Luc on 12/19/2014 02:44 pm
+1

The number on the manifest is an ideal.
Just as you have a NET - No Earlier Than date for launches,
So, you have an NMT - No More Than number for launches in a given year

I fail to see the controversy, when a company projects the maximum number of scheduled launches that are theoretically possible for them in a given year based on their current understanding, and then reality introduces unforeseen circumstances.

The goal has to be to launch safely as early as possible and as many missions as possible. Actually predicting how many launches will take place is obviously a much lower priority (not a priority at all really) than setting an upper bound and doing their best to achieve it.

I voted 8
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 12/19/2014 02:50 pm
Can the usual folks create the new poll now?

That'll be Lar's task now.  I have passed the torch on to him.

Sorry I am slacking. I will try to get it done today. There has been a lot of discussion about what options to give. So I expect that whatever I go with will be .. .wrong.  :)

Edit: Poll is up and located here
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36377

And... I went with precise numbered choices, I did not see a 12 entry limit.

I voted 8 last year (oops!) but tried to temper my inner fan boy a bit for 2015 and went with 12
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 12/19/2014 03:37 pm
I spotted 8 other polls this year.  It may be time to dust them off as well and start picking nits over the finer details.  A few items like EELV cert should still be open until EOY.  Perhaps a new thread '2014 Poll results' should be started with the first post containing a link to each of the polls.  Having a matrix of all of the poll results would allow users to keep their own scorecard.

Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments – DRAGON
POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 FIRST STAGE
POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - GRASSHOPPER
POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments – MISCELLANEOUS
Deployment of landing legs for Falcon 9 v1.1 first stage (including poll)
POLL: What will the eventual fate of the CRS-3 first stage be?


great idea! Would you be willing to take that summarization task on (or at least start the thread and collect the links?)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: kch on 12/19/2014 03:52 pm

There has been a lot of discussion about what options to give. So I expect that whatever I go with will be .. .wrong.  :)

You know us all too well ...  ;)

(it looks fine -- thank you!)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 12/19/2014 04:09 pm
I was sort of expecting some flamage from some of the old guard because I included a "more than 35!" option (WITH exclamation point) ... so far no flamage, but it's early. Also no votes for that one. But it's early. :)

Happy Friday.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lee Jay on 12/19/2014 04:23 pm
Looks like they'll have 6 flights this year (which also means I got it right two years in a row unless they squeeze CRS-4 in),

I don't remember it, but the forum says I voted correctly in 2012 too.  So, 3-for-3!  The more they launch, the harder it is to get it right, so I expect the streak to end in 2015.
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: R7 on 12/19/2014 04:32 pm
Voted 5. Oh well, positive surprise. And now to contemplate a new guess between 5 and 10...
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 12/21/2014 02:50 am
Well with the result now out I can finally say how many I voted.....7. So close.....  :-X

(interestingly I took the customer perspective and actually guessed which satellites would be launched. I voted after Thaicom 6 slipped to 2014 and guessed the following list:

*Thaicom 6 (given)
*at least 2 Dragon flights, CRS-3/4 (minimum needed to satisfy ISS upmass/downmass demand; I don't have enough confidence in SpaceX flying 3 Dragon flights at late 2013, which now turned into reality)
*Orbcomm 2-F1 (the company was in urgent need of new satellites)
*AsiaSat 8/6 (the company seems to be on full steam to get these 2 working by mid-2014 at that time)

That 6 covers the first 9 months as I thought at the time of guessing (which turned out to be so accurate....except that the ultimate launch dates were far from what I thought at that time!). I decided to add 1 more launch for Q4, which would have been one of either CRS-5, Turkmensat or DSCOVR. As it turns out 2 of these 3 ends up in January 2015.....  :-X

Well 2015 would need even more info from the customers' side. Let's see.....  ::)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Llian Rhydderch on 12/27/2014 06:43 pm
Is there a way to publish the screen names of the correct guessers?
I actually hate the fact I got it right. Would have preferred to have guessed way too low.

I got it right

congrats Jim ;)

funny didn't think you would bother to vote :-X

Do we know Jim voted, or have evidence of what he voted?  All I saw in his recent post was a screen shot of the aggregated vote tally as of some date in early 2014.  That doesn't seem to be a post going on the record with one's prediction.  (Now maybe that is in some other post; I'm just pointing out that the screen shop of the vote tally does not support an assertion of any particular NSFer predicting any particular number of prospective launches.)
Title: Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
Post by: Lar on 12/27/2014 06:53 pm
If Jim says he voted, that is that.

We do not question the integrity of each other. I am not sure how to make it any clearer than that..

This is part of being excellent to each other

PS the screenshot shows one vote in a heavier font. That is the vote of the person who was logged in at the time the screen shot was taken... so actually to my way of thinking that is definitive. Nevertheless we do not question each other. If you read from this that I am somewhat upset and sad you would be correct.