Author Topic: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?  (Read 73219 times)

Offline Star One

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #40 on: 05/14/2014 09:16 am »

So lets air on the side of caution and assume this is just banter and ultimately this position is reversed.

Err on the side of caution would be assuming this is true and plan accordingly.

Quote
There is neither the political will nor the money.

We'll see about political will when Americans realize post 2020 US would be without a station while China/Russia would dominate LEO. Money is there if SLS gets the ax.


The majority of the country does not care about space exploration or national scientific goals anymore. The reasons behind this are complex, but by and large the next two generations of young people that are now beginning to vote and we hope, enter the workforce are grossly under educated and have no interest in science. But it goes deeper than that, most of them simply do not care about any national agendas of this country. I am not sure what to make of this but its deeply saddening to me.

In any case the simple dark and inconvenient truth is that literally not enough people care anymore.

I think that's a gross simplification of things. I would suspect there are still plenty of young people interested in science. Rather what you are repeating is what certain sections of the media & politicians would have us believe that youth are not interested in science rather than what is probably the actual case.

Online Ben E

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #41 on: 05/14/2014 09:36 am »
It does surprise me that Rogozin has gone so far as to make this kind of assertion. Yes, there's much sabre-rattling on both sides, but at least the West is mainly imposing sanctions on individuals. Rogozin is threatening to destroy the best thing to emerge in international co-operation in the whole of human history. It doesn't just affect the U.S. and Europe, but Canada and Japan, too. It seems seems sheer lunacy.

This is playground stuff. The scary thing is that it comes from a political leader, who should (!) be more careful or at least measured with his choice of language. Even if Rogozin's words are reversed, the damage is done.
« Last Edit: 05/14/2014 09:38 am by Ben E »

Offline Dave G

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #42 on: 05/14/2014 10:19 am »
Staying with ISS is going to be cheaper for Russia in long run than walking away and building themselves a new space station.

Russia has now surpassed Saudi Arabia as the worlds largest oil producer, and they know China will always buy Russian oil, regardless of any sanctions. 

This is why Russian oligarchs are so defiant.  They're swimming in oil money. 

A Russian space station would be a symbol of this new found power, and sticking it to the Americans is just icing on the cake.


Offline Llian Rhydderch

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #43 on: 05/14/2014 11:16 am »
So lets air on the side of caution and assume this is just banter and ultimately this position is reversed.

Err on the side of caution would be assuming this is true and plan accordingly.

Quote
There is neither the political will nor the money.

We'll see about political will when Americans realize post 2020 US would be without a station while China/Russia would dominate LEO. Money is there if SLS gets the ax.


The majority of the country does not care about space exploration or national scientific goals anymore. The reasons behind this are complex, but by and large the next two generations of young people that are now beginning to vote and we hope, enter the workforce are grossly under educated and have no interest in science. But it goes deeper than that, most of them simply do not care about any national agendas of this country. I am not sure what to make of this but its deeply saddening to me.

In any case the simple dark and inconvenient truth is that literally not enough people care anymore.

I agree with you on this.  This is also the view that Rand Simberg has articulated. 

However, I think there is one unstated presumption that is pretty much assumed when most of people are talking space, and who does or does not "care" about it.

I would restate it slightly:  "The majority of the country does not care about government-driven space exploration programs or national scientific goals anymore."

SpaceX and others may or may not be successful in demonstrating radically lower-cost access to space over the long term.  I and many others think they likely will, Jim and many others think they won't.  But if they are, we won't need any government-driven program and national scientific goals to facilitate movement of humans into the space environment. 

Their are resources beyond Earth's gravity well that humans will want to utilize; when the economic capability to do so exists, market forces will be sufficient to attract entrepreneurs to develop them, as long as government forces and legislative rules don't excessively impede the Earth-side end of the transportation system from working.  People will, at the margin, move out into space.  And when and as the economic usefulness of that endeavor is demonstrated by entrepreneurs and observed, others will follow.  Space will develop as fast a productive uses exist for it, and no faster.  And in my view, that is the way it should be.


Edit:  tweaked a few words
« Last Edit: 05/14/2014 11:20 am by Llian Rhydderch »
Re arguments from authority on NSF:  "no one is exempt from error, and errors of authority are usually the worst kind.  Taking your word for things without question is no different than a bracket design not being tested because the designer was an old hand."
"You would actually save yourself time and effort if you were to use evidence and logic to make your points instead of wrapping yourself in the royal mantle of authority.  The approach only works on sheep, not inquisitive, intelligent people."

Offline docmordrid

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #44 on: 05/14/2014 11:32 am »
Staying with ISS is going to be cheaper for Russia in long run than walking away and building themselves a new space station.

Russia has now surpassed Saudi Arabia as the worlds largest oil producer, and they know China will always buy Russian oil, regardless of any sanctions. 
>

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-12/u-s-nears-energy-independence-by-2035-on-shale-boom-iea-says.html

IEA = International Energy Agency

Quote
U.S. to Be Top Oil Producer by 2015 on Shale, IEA Says

The U.S. will surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world’s top oil producer by 2015, and be close to energy self-sufficiency in the next two decades, amid booming output from shale formations, the IEA said.
>
« Last Edit: 05/14/2014 11:33 am by docmordrid »
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Offline laszlo

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #45 on: 05/14/2014 12:29 pm »
 
The US will certainly never have access to another LEO lab of similar scale within my lifetime.

Sounds like Apollo. That was also caused by the Russians pulling out.

Offline Pastor Bill

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #46 on: 05/14/2014 12:52 pm »
If things do end up going south for the ISS in 2020, there is always the Skylab II proposal that runs about $2.5B +/- (don't have a link at the moment to it). One SLS launch, CC to ferry staff/supplies and the problem is solved... and if we are building one, build 2 and the L2 Gateway is set... now, just need to build that lander that can be scaled up/down between the Moon/Mars/mission module for ARM and we are really cooking :) ...but still, what a waste to lose the ISS... :(

Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #47 on: 05/14/2014 01:39 pm »
Pay Bigelow for a BA 2100 based station. Would only take an SLS launch. Alternatively, axe the SLS (I would definitely not mind that) and use Falcon Heavy to launch BA330s. Still would suck to discontinue the ISS, after all the money that went into it, just because some politicians cant behave like grown ups.

Offline Jim

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #48 on: 05/14/2014 01:48 pm »

I would restate it slightly:  "The majority of the country does not care about government-driven space exploration programs or national scientific goals anymore."

This version reflects reality:

"The majority of the country does not care about any space exploration programs or scientific goals anymore.

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #49 on: 05/14/2014 01:55 pm »
Allow me to channel my inner Godfather as the Russian crew departs ISS for the last time... “Leave the vodka, take the Soyuz”...


« Last Edit: 05/14/2014 06:41 pm by Rocket Science »
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Offline bilbo

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #50 on: 05/14/2014 01:59 pm »
I know NASA has a plan to put a station at the l2 LaGrange point with SLS.
(I honestly don't hate SLS, NASA will probably get more funding as exploration continues.) Keep in mind A new President elect is coming in 2016, Anything could happen.

I would like to see some more support for Falcon Heavy though. I don't like the idea of Axing SLS, if we have to replace it fine, then get Spacex  to make Falcon XX. Elon can use his private funds to fund MCT.
As for CST-100 and Bigelow, Bigelow will probably come out of this fine. Bigelow has plan's for making a Lunar base, plus everyone wants inflatables these days. Boeing however is pretty much screwed.

IMHO CST-100 was doomed from the start, got out of the gate late when Spacex already won the race.
« Last Edit: 05/14/2014 02:02 pm by bilbo »

Offline Star One

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #51 on: 05/14/2014 02:05 pm »

I know NASA has a plan to put a station at the l2 LaGrange point with SLS.
(I honestly don't hate SLS, NASA will probably get more funding as exploration continues.) Keep in mind A new President elect is coming in 2016, Anything could happen.

I would like to see some more support for Falcon Heavy though. I don't like the idea of Axing SLS, if we have to replace it fine, then get Spacex  to make Falcon XX. Elon can use his private funds to fund MCT.
As for CST-100 and Bigelow, Bigelow will probably come out of this fine. Bigelow has plan's for making a Lunar base, plus everyone wants inflatables these days. Boeing however is pretty much screwed.

IMHO CST-100 was doomed from the start, got out of the gate late when Spacex already won the race.

Also don't forget Dream Chaser they have other options in both launcher & missions.

Offline RocketGoBoom

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #52 on: 05/14/2014 04:26 pm »
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/russias-new-space-sanctions-mean-spacex-is-about-to-get-paid

Quote
Russia just announced plans to shut down the International Space Station in 2020, and prohibited companies in the country from selling engines to Lockheed Martin and Boeing for military launch purposes. If this is more than just posturing, there’s at least one takeaway: SpaceX is about to get paid.

Offline GalacticIntruder

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #53 on: 05/14/2014 04:41 pm »
If Russia pulls the plug, then the ISS is doomed. It might be salvaged if Congress gives NASA a larger budget, but there is no guarantee of either monies or feasibility.  ISS might not be worth saving anyway, IF two companies, whom talk big, but don't execute well, step up their games. SpaceX F9, FH and Dragon2, and Bigelow BA330. Both are expected well before 2020.
« Last Edit: 05/14/2014 04:42 pm by GalacticIntruder »
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Offline deskpro590

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #54 on: 05/14/2014 05:07 pm »
I know of a nation with a 'budding' space program and very deep wallets...China.  I know there is a Policy in place at NASA regarding China but I'm sure, as with any policy, that could be rescinded.  In addition to that...What would it take to get them on board with the ISS?   :)



On a related "how would they get there" note...Aren't there similarities between Shenzhou and Soyuz?
« Last Edit: 05/14/2014 05:39 pm by deskpro590 »

Offline simonbp

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #55 on: 05/14/2014 06:29 pm »
Probably not for exactly the reason this is an issue: it is not impossible that the US would want to sanction China in the future (or vice versa), so I doubt either country would be interested in putting the other in the critical path for their space stations.

ISS was a product of a very special time when the Clinton Administration tried to keep Russian aerospace engineers in Russia (and therefore not in Iran/N. Korea/etc) by effectively subsidizing the Russian space program. That's why the US owns the FGB, they had to buy it and pay for the launch to convince the Russians they were serious. The whole issue has been a sore point for Russia since their economy recovered, and this seems like an out for them.

On a new ICM/propulsion module, if we really want to keep the ex-Russian ISS around for a long time, it would make sense to have a propulsion module large enough to gradually lower the plane of ISS to 28 degrees, making it much more useful as a platform for Lunar/Asteroid/Mars missions.

Offline mmeijeri

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #56 on: 05/14/2014 06:33 pm »
On a new ICM/propulsion module, if we really want to keep the ex-Russian ISS around for a long time, it would make sense to have a propulsion module large enough to gradually lower the plane of ISS to 28 degrees, making it much more useful as a platform for Lunar/Asteroid/Mars missions.

That would require an insane amount of propellant unless it used SEP or refueling. And if it uses refueling, size is no longer an issue. Besides, 51 degrees is not a problem at all, that's a total myth. It is in fact superior precisely because it is more widely accessible.
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Offline mmeijeri

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #57 on: 05/14/2014 07:14 pm »
I'm only objecting to the idea that 51 degrees is unsuitable for exploration. The ISS is in the orbit it's in, and there is no real benefit from moving it, while moving it would be very expensive. Depending on how much you reduce its inclination it might not hurt much either, but why bother for tiny gains relating to only a small part of the mass needed for an exploration mission?
Pro-tip: you don't have to be a jerk if someone doesn't agree with your theories

Offline watermod

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Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #58 on: 05/14/2014 07:32 pm »
This Moscow Times article from April suggests Russia use elements of ISS with China to do a non-ISS station.

Russian Space Agency Plans China Shift Amid Sanctions Fears
By Matthew Bodner Apr. 24 2014 17:30
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/498879.html

The date of this would tend to invalidate ULA's claims that Elon Musk and SpaceX   were at fault for the current situation too.




Offline Space Pete

Re: Will 2020 see the end of the ISS?
« Reply #59 on: 05/14/2014 08:46 pm »
I'll stick my neck out here and predict that this will all end up being much ado about nothing.

If Russia was really mad at the US, they they would just ban US astronauts from flying on Soyuz. That is their trump card, and everyone knows it, but still they have not (yet) played it. Instead, they come up with a response the impacts of which are nicely in the future, thus avoiding having to deal with the consequences in the present.

Will anyone still be talking about Crimea in six years time? My guess is that it will all have blown over by then, and both sides will have calmed down, come to some kind of mutual victory & loss, and flexed their muscles enough to be confident that the world knows that each side is "not to be messed with".

Russia knew that going into Crimea would bring some kind of response, and my guess is that sanctions were on their "least bad" list. Of course people will get excited and upset, but I reckon Putin feels that sanctions are a "good price to pay" for getting Crimea.

At the moment it's all just action and response. It's happened before. In the long term, strategic interests usually prevail (and it's in nobody's interest to walk away from the international exploration of space).
« Last Edit: 05/14/2014 08:50 pm by Space Pete »
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